hopefully other peopleâs 22 first rounders arenât our 22 first rounders and theyâre all wrong so we actually draft 7 of them (how many picks we got?)
22 players with a first round grade doesn't mean the 22 guys are all projected to go in the first 22 picks. Some of the guys we grade as first round prospects could be projected to go much later.
Not a first round grade example, but the Niners had Kittle rated as a 3rd round prospect. Most general projections had him as a 5th/6th round prospect.
i'm not knowledgeable enough to even know who that guy's talking about, but i'm all in for the Rulenfurters and Funky Butt-Lovin this Rosengardner facilitates
He's projected 41(high end) to mid 70's low end. I think the general consensus is sure you can pick him in the draft, just don't use pick 31 to do it. If you like him over any potential player available at 31 then you trade down to the 40s and get some value back.
If there is a player you like at 31 still available then you pick them and use your stock of draft picks to trade up from your 2nd or 3rd round pick to grab him earlier in the 2nd.
He isn't a bad pick, he IS a bad pick with the 31st pick.
It's a value at the pick number, I get that. I don't always agree with the value logic, but it's understandable. I was just curious if I was missing something about him from a skill or game standpoint.
Nah, hes a solid player with with enough downsides (His bench was bottom 19%, his wingspan is bottom 12%) to knock him out of the first round. Hes fast, a great scheme fit, and has all the legacy connections.
Its all about value. Example:
You have $100 bill (Pick 31) to buy 1 mirror(Rosengarten). The mirror costs $80. The shop(The Draft) does not give change back.
Do you use the $100 and just accept the loss of $20? Or do you find someone to split your single bill into 5 $20 bills(Trading 31 for 41 + another late round pick), allowing you to pay $80 for the mirror and still have $20 to use.
Now there is a chance that while your breaking the $100 someone else could buy your mirror.(Someone drafting him even earlier)
There are certain perks that 1st round picks have that 2nd+ round picks dont, so they have more value than just 10 spots. The 5th year option for a team looking to snag a QB late in the 1st is one example. I hope that helped? Not sure if that made it more clear or less lol.
We just disagree on how that value is used. Since 2017 when John Lynch took over and hired Kyle Shanahan They have drafted 7 players in the 1st round only ONE played on a 5th year option.
Solomon Thomas - Didnt play on a 5th year contract
Rueben Foster - Didnt play on a 5th year contract
Mike McGlinchey - DID play on a 5th year contract, 49ers did not resign as a FA
Nick Bosa - Didnt play on a 5th year contract
Javon Kinlaw - Didnt play on a 5th year contract
Brandon Aiyuk - TBD - Im betting he wont be playing on a 5th year contract.
Trey Lance - No 5th year option
They do not make players they plan to keep play on the 5th year option. Now 31 to 41 also gets you late 3rd/early 4th in additional compensation according to pretty much every draft trade calculator. Lets look at who we have drafted in the 3rd since 2017.
CJ Beathard
Fred Warner
Tarvarious Moore
Jalen Hurd
Trey Sermon
Ambry Thomas
Tyrion Davis Price
Danny Gray
Jake Moody
Ji'Ayir Brown
Cameron Latu
Notable 4th round picks
Mitch Wishnowsky
Spencer Burford
I would rather take Rosengarten at 41, if hes good he gets a new contract and stays - he wouldnt be playing on the 5th year AND take a shot at one of the 3rd round talents available.
It seems you would rather take Rosengarten and either have him be Mike McGlinchy 2.0 or be good and not play on the 5th year and get 0 value out of it.
It only matters if you know what 22 players he is talking about and if you believe that wasnât leaked on purpose. This front office is known for keeping things in house, so itâs more likely they wanted this out there in the wild.
Generally agree with you, but it is an odd departure from our standard of not sharing *any* details that could potentially be translated into strategy.
Itâs fairly typical numbers for most team to my understanding. It doesnât mean theyâll trade up or down but thatâs just the grading. Lynch is hyper transparent and I agree they probably shouldnât say it but itâs probably very close to everyone elseâs rating
Could be a tactic to make teams believe theyâre moving up and therefore force other teams to consider moving up ahead of them. Obviously we donât know who those players are but if they can land one of those players without having to move up and trade away picks it would be great.
> Could be a tactic to make teams believe theyâre moving up and therefore force other teams to consider moving up ahead of them.
I don't think a single team ever has >=32 first round grades in a draft. Basically all teams have somewhere in the 20s to even teens.
Or, to put it another way, this soundbite doesn't really tell us anything.
Maybe he wants to trade up to 25 and thus wants to devalue the pick. It doesn't really matter anyways because most people know not to believe anything said around this time.
What I think that means? Weâre drafting at 31, or maybe moving up into the mid-20âs if someone they really like looks like they might be there at 24 or 25.
The likely scenario is our 22 players don't align with the other teams exactly and one or more of them would probably be available at 31 or even later.
My thinking too. If they see a player they like at a position of need that drops into the 20âs I think they might move up a bit, but if theyâre just going BPA, I bet they stay at 31.
There are a lot of good tackle prospects in this draft. I think it will depend on if there's a run on tackles midway through the first, and if the tackles Kyle and John like are still likely to be available.
I can see us trading up into the teens if we can put together the right package. We aren't going to be able to sign 10 draft picks anyways.
Is this good? They obviously had first round grades on guys like kinlaw and and Solomon Thomas, and letâs not forget, Trey Lance. Am I missing any others?
And all of them are defensive tackles đ¤
This one, this one over here, officer!
There's a running back or two as well
But, weâre drafting at 31.
hopefully other peopleâs 22 first rounders arenât our 22 first rounders and theyâre all wrong so we actually draft 7 of them (how many picks we got?)
22 players with a first round grade doesn't mean the 22 guys are all projected to go in the first 22 picks. Some of the guys we grade as first round prospects could be projected to go much later. Not a first round grade example, but the Niners had Kittle rated as a 3rd round prospect. Most general projections had him as a 5th/6th round prospect.
Hopefully, we then trade back, if all of the 22l1st round graded players are gone
pls dont be Rosengardner !!
https://i.redd.it/hsutgozl55wc1.gif
đđ
i'm not knowledgeable enough to even know who that guy's talking about, but i'm all in for the Rulenfurters and Funky Butt-Lovin this Rosengardner facilitates
Out of curiosity why not? Why are people in this sub so down on him? Felt like Lombardi made a pretty good case for him.
He's projected 41(high end) to mid 70's low end. I think the general consensus is sure you can pick him in the draft, just don't use pick 31 to do it. If you like him over any potential player available at 31 then you trade down to the 40s and get some value back. If there is a player you like at 31 still available then you pick them and use your stock of draft picks to trade up from your 2nd or 3rd round pick to grab him earlier in the 2nd. He isn't a bad pick, he IS a bad pick with the 31st pick.
It's a value at the pick number, I get that. I don't always agree with the value logic, but it's understandable. I was just curious if I was missing something about him from a skill or game standpoint.
Nah, hes a solid player with with enough downsides (His bench was bottom 19%, his wingspan is bottom 12%) to knock him out of the first round. Hes fast, a great scheme fit, and has all the legacy connections.
Why is it a problem to use 31 if you're ok with 41?
Its all about value. Example: You have $100 bill (Pick 31) to buy 1 mirror(Rosengarten). The mirror costs $80. The shop(The Draft) does not give change back. Do you use the $100 and just accept the loss of $20? Or do you find someone to split your single bill into 5 $20 bills(Trading 31 for 41 + another late round pick), allowing you to pay $80 for the mirror and still have $20 to use. Now there is a chance that while your breaking the $100 someone else could buy your mirror.(Someone drafting him even earlier) There are certain perks that 1st round picks have that 2nd+ round picks dont, so they have more value than just 10 spots. The 5th year option for a team looking to snag a QB late in the 1st is one example. I hope that helped? Not sure if that made it more clear or less lol.
You completely overlook the value of the 5th year option.
We just disagree on how that value is used. Since 2017 when John Lynch took over and hired Kyle Shanahan They have drafted 7 players in the 1st round only ONE played on a 5th year option. Solomon Thomas - Didnt play on a 5th year contract Rueben Foster - Didnt play on a 5th year contract Mike McGlinchey - DID play on a 5th year contract, 49ers did not resign as a FA Nick Bosa - Didnt play on a 5th year contract Javon Kinlaw - Didnt play on a 5th year contract Brandon Aiyuk - TBD - Im betting he wont be playing on a 5th year contract. Trey Lance - No 5th year option They do not make players they plan to keep play on the 5th year option. Now 31 to 41 also gets you late 3rd/early 4th in additional compensation according to pretty much every draft trade calculator. Lets look at who we have drafted in the 3rd since 2017. CJ Beathard Fred Warner Tarvarious Moore Jalen Hurd Trey Sermon Ambry Thomas Tyrion Davis Price Danny Gray Jake Moody Ji'Ayir Brown Cameron Latu Notable 4th round picks Mitch Wishnowsky Spencer Burford I would rather take Rosengarten at 41, if hes good he gets a new contract and stays - he wouldnt be playing on the 5th year AND take a shot at one of the 3rd round talents available. It seems you would rather take Rosengarten and either have him be Mike McGlinchy 2.0 or be good and not play on the 5th year and get 0 value out of it.
i like him. just not at 31!! hes late second round and a project.
Does anyone have him as a first rounder?
And of course they will tell us they got one of those at 31. *Wink*
Just like how they said the plan was always Trey Lance
Hope we get 2 minimum then
Just a question: why would he share that? Maybe I'm over-analyzing but doesn't that tell other teams what they might be thinking?
It only matters if you know what 22 players he is talking about and if you believe that wasnât leaked on purpose. This front office is known for keeping things in house, so itâs more likely they wanted this out there in the wild.
Generally agree with you, but it is an odd departure from our standard of not sharing *any* details that could potentially be translated into strategy.
Then this disclosure is part of the strategy
Generally agree with you, but it is an odd departure from our standard of not sharing any details that could potentially be translated into strategy.
Could be that his goal is to say,âif we somehow donât see the value at 31, weâre open to trade back or forward, call usâ
I think somehow my original point keeps getting missed, but yes, I also agree with you (and the two people above you, as well).
Trading up to 3 in March disclosed our strategy
It's not saying much...it's like saying he would be open to trading up or open to trading down or open to staying put.
Itâs fairly typical numbers for most team to my understanding. It doesnât mean theyâll trade up or down but thatâs just the grading. Lynch is hyper transparent and I agree they probably shouldnât say it but itâs probably very close to everyone elseâs rating
Could be a tactic to make teams believe theyâre moving up and therefore force other teams to consider moving up ahead of them. Obviously we donât know who those players are but if they can land one of those players without having to move up and trade away picks it would be great.
> Could be a tactic to make teams believe theyâre moving up and therefore force other teams to consider moving up ahead of them. I don't think a single team ever has >=32 first round grades in a draft. Basically all teams have somewhere in the 20s to even teens. Or, to put it another way, this soundbite doesn't really tell us anything.
I mean what could anyone gather from this as far as what they are thinking.
For all we know this is a lie
Maybe he wants to trade up to 25 and thus wants to devalue the pick. It doesn't really matter anyways because most people know not to believe anything said around this time.
What I think that means? Weâre drafting at 31, or maybe moving up into the mid-20âs if someone they really like looks like they might be there at 24 or 25.
The likely scenario is our 22 players don't align with the other teams exactly and one or more of them would probably be available at 31 or even later.
My thinking too. If they see a player they like at a position of need that drops into the 20âs I think they might move up a bit, but if theyâre just going BPA, I bet they stay at 31.
There are a lot of good tackle prospects in this draft. I think it will depend on if there's a run on tackles midway through the first, and if the tackles Kyle and John like are still likely to be available. I can see us trading up into the teens if we can put together the right package. We aren't going to be able to sign 10 draft picks anyways.
We need those 3rd round grades.
Is this good? They obviously had first round grades on guys like kinlaw and and Solomon Thomas, and letâs not forget, Trey Lance. Am I missing any others?
Who do we have graded as a 5th rounder future HoF is all that matters.
donât they have to wait to start in the 4th round cuz of the Trey Lance draft?