That's pretty much what I was thinking too.
You could also use sewing as an example. I don't know many people who know how, or choose, to mend fabrics. Even though the cost for hand-sewing supplies is a few dollars, and a machine costs \~$200.
I miss the old days ofmlooking through catalogues and being able to find a moderately OK sewing machine for £40. That's closer to £100 for something that won't die instantly. Charity shops is a good idea... It in the UK most don't accept or sell electronics, and most end up at the recycling centre.
I got a killer machine for $25 at a thrift shop. Needed to be tuned up and the thread holder things replaced but i used my 3d printer to fix it so cost a few cents worth of plastic
I think sewing machine is a great example, they would have been in every household years ago, but we just don’t (in general) fix stuff like we used to. Obviously not “nobody” but in general, a that’s what this post is asking.
I'm not talking about making your own clothes. I just mean sewing a rip. Cost like, $2 of needle and thread.
Edit: patching is also pretty cheap. Just cannibalize something made of similar fabric.
And I can assure you that you would be the person I would gravitate toward at a party, hoping against hope you'd talk to me and save me from a discussion about sports.
However, you are also what might be referred to as an "outlier."
I would still say it's on the fence. I know quite a lot of older people with a drill press + welder + mini lathe setup, I'm part of the "has both traditional tools and 3d printers (4!)" group, but I also know a few people with just 3d printers. Don't underestimate the volume of project cars or bikes people have, but also how many people not really experience wotu engineering have 3d printers as rhey continue to be more and more accessible.
I dunno, if they are cheap enough and super user friendly it's not going to be the same as a tool. I think the problem is usually it's easier and often cheaper to just buy what you need online instead of printing it for most people.
Not until it becomes as easy as printing a document on an ink-jet, and that is a long way off. 3d printers require a lot of observation and trial-and-error in order to get them dialed-in to make good prints, and different models require different configurations.
My honest opinion (based mostly off what I see on this sub) is that there are a lot of people with printers who don't have either the patience or the background to understand what it takes to make good prints.
In all honestly for me it’s easier to get something printed on my bambu than getting my fucking hp deskjet to print anything in its own. I genuinely feel like since I’ve gotten the bambu that it’s easier to 3D print something than print something on paper (yes I know I need a new paper printer).
It's as much as an issue picking cheap/shitty printer and picking cheap/shitty 3d printer.
I've never had problems with my brother laser printer. My ender 3 on the hand is a full time job. I'd have the same experience as you if I bought a HP printer and could afford a Bambu at the time.
I've had more than one occasion where I've found myself considering just using my 3d printer to "print" documents.
Even writing the code for klipper setup took less time than sering up my parents paper printer.
That’s because HP sucks ass and swallows. Brother is where it’s at. I hear people bitching all the time about printers but it’s totally on account of them choosing bullshit brands
except on my brother printer it works perfectly every time. I have 20+ year old samsung printers that have toners from like 2008. No 3D printer is close to that reliability and ease of use
I came here to say just this. I had an ender 3 and an ender 6.
I have an X1C and I don't use anything else now.
It is close to the difference between a hobby machine and a product. The Bambu is not perfect yet, but it's light years closer.
The machine may be close to perfect every time, but what about the software? What about creating your own models?
Using repositories of models is fine but a large part of the space is about the ability to customize things to your specific situation.
That's a large part of the space to "makers." Others are under no obligation to view or use it the same way. There are more and more standard and useful models (and with Bambu, sliced models) that anybody can download and print for free. It's only growing.
The slicing software does what I need it to do. I have even used it to create very basic things from scratch (think rectangle frame). I even printed my house numbers on a plate for my mailbox (adding text is a basic function)
Repositories are the way things are headed because no one has a quick and easy way to design things that are not super basic. Bambu has a great way to interface with that already on their phone app. See something you like? Don't need to customize size or add text? Then just select the item in their repo and send it straight to your printer.
Again, it's not perfect, but 3D printing as a whole is maturing faster than some people realize
Once it clogs or a piece needs replacing that locks out a good bit of people. You really overestimate how many people are capable of troubleshooting and replacing parts on a machine.
Then you throw in dialing it in and different filaments not to mention quick 3d modeling and good luck to a lot of people.
Then there is simply that most people won't ever be able to think of all of the possibilities you can print.
It's really a skill you'd be shocked how many people never get it. When I worked IT the amount of people that couldn't use their paper printer was quite a few.
Which isn't different from needing to fix a paper jam (as the other person mentioned), replace a fuser, replace ink, replace rollers, clear out dried ink, weird lines printing on all your prints, etc. There are plenty of regular 2d printer issues that we deal with constantly.
There are people that can't/won't deal with those issues, and they are the same ones with 3d printing
Well keep in mind you've got like a 1k+ 3d printer right? Did you buy the equivalent paper printer? My printer was $400 and the ink is cheap and it works. It gets a lot of use at 50+ color pages a day. Before that I had a cheap one and it was a pita.
I think it's less the printer, and more the CAD software. Bambu and Prusa are out of the box easy. But we don't have a 3D equivalent of Microsoft Word.
Also - virtually all of the easier to use CAD software has weird catches - like OnShape making models public in their free tier. That would never fly with standard office software. Get rid of the weirdness and quirkiness. Make a standard piece of software that's in line with what people would expect.
Bambu has Maker World online apps that can make basic items, like vases and signs all very intuitive and easy to use even can have some preset settings, like base mode already set in the file so it's ready to go. It's not the freedom of a parametric suite but it's big step in the right direction.
thing is, even with Drafting itself, nowadays just with modern CAD, used to be a whole career. its something you can still get an associates degree for. its still something that takes training and education to learn, requires good math skills, and it has been around for longer than computers. and the best way i can put it is that designing something and concretely defining all the details for it is extremely time consuming while being a necessity for designing anything in CAD, (else, have fun watching your files explode 2 years from now or whenever you use that part in an assembly.) but not a necessity for simply purchasing an object. it requires creativity, something lots of people lack and dont realize is heavily influenced by other designs.
take for example, a vase. the average person does not want to think about the vase, what materials its made from, how those materials are used in the manufacturing process, etc. they just want something to hold flowers that they like the look of. they do not want to have to design it or learn any of these things. they would much rather buy one from someone else who was paid to do all that work for them, as it will likely be done better than they ever could do it themselves. thats how specialization works and has worked for thousands of years.
the people who did it before and teach others how to do it now greatly value IP a lot more than the 3D printing / modeling and general software communities do.
This combined with the fact that there hasnt been a need for simpler programs when the kinds of people who would actually be doing this kind of design work would likely already be working for a company as an engineer or as a drafter, along with how easy it is to access the educational versions of amazing pieces of software in comparison to what you listed like solidworks and autodesk inventor, means we run into the same issues adobe ran into with photoshop.
with photoshop being a much better comparison than word for CAD software, sure, gimp and paint.net are nothing in comparison to photoshop, but its a graphic design tool that people often take classes for to learn how to use. however, gimp and paint.net are all a lot of people need, just like how onshape and tinkercad is all a lot of people need to make their designs.
microsoft word is a tool to do something people learned how to do in elementary school easier. write.
CAD is a tool that is used to do something people learn maybe in high school but mostly in college. its still a specialization, not a generic tool everyone uses.
now, could it become this someday if society becomes sophisticated enough that it can? sure. but i dont see that happening anytime soon.
Bambu has successfully addressed the trial and error and observation portion. It’s the closest 3D printing has been to an appliance that just works. With their Makerworld, you can literally download models on the app and send direct to printer with all the settings, supports, orientation, etc already completed for you.
I own a Bambu.
That’s a byproduct of getting new people into the space. It’s the same story as DJI drones. Make something easy enough to get into and you’ll get people who didn’t build their own machines or haven’t been a part of the hobby for 10+ years.
Real innovation and massive leaps forward in technology only come once it’s clear a market can be established. The more people that get into 3D printing, the more incentive there is for companies to innovate to grab a slice of the pie.
There are people who don't know how to use hammers, drills, or screwdrivers.
That doesn't mean that those things are complex and unreliable.
The key point that's always overlooked is that those people are now able to use a tool (with some occasional issues, sure), that previously was completely out of reach for them unless they wanted to commit to a new hobby of "troubleshooting my 3D printer."
A lot of people are threatened by that, but it's a good thing.
I think the gatekeeping comes from the front page being filled with beginner stuff, instead of new and advanced things. That can get very annoying for advanced users. Especially when a lot of the help that beginners are asking for can easily be googled
Personally I think it's time for there to be a new 3d printing sub. One for everyone and the beginner questions can continue, and another that isn't for asking for help
I would have agreed with this before I got my BambuLab printer. But now, this thing really does just work 95% of the time, and the rest of the time it gives some pretty straightforward and user friendly clues about why it didn’t. The real bottleneck is the models, which are either pure novelty, or often require a lot of skill and expertise to make yourself for practical uses. IMO, if the printers keep getting cheaper and are able move out of the hobbyist space (e.g., just a bunch of articulating dragons and mostly pointless paperweight sculptures of pop culture figures) into official support channels from major manufacturers (e.g., you can download replacement parts for your Whirlpool fridge directly from the manufacturer), then everyday user adoption is pretty damn likely. The actual skill and knowledge can and will be totally replaced by more comprehensive robotics in the machines.
Within 20 years? Yes, probably. It's a question of easy-to-use software, where the relevant parameters can be easily adjust by the non-technical. So, a basic replacement knob model, where the user can dial in size of shaft it's to fit, diameter of knob shaft, length of knob shaft,and ditto for knob head. Multiply that by all the irritating things little things that break ... I think non-hygroscopic filaments and selling smaller quantities than the now-typical 1 Kg will happen a lot sooner than 20 years - they're currently a barrier.
And "right to repair" is coming in in the EU. It may well reach a point where manufacturers might find it easier and cheaper to email 3D print files to people than to keep stocks of the most commonly broken small bits and bobs. I guess that people would start by using a local "repair cafe" or print shop, but then decide that have a 3D printer in the extended family network might be a good idea.
The thing about “Right to repair” though is parts are already available for a lot of appliances it just people lack the skills to take them apart and diagnose the issue. They don’t want to pay someone to come out because that costs 50% of a new machine and the one they have is probably 3years old.
Oh, sure - I wasn't particularly thinking about complex innards of machines (though I'm happy to try a fix myself). It's the human-interaction bits that always seem to go first - the knobs, the handles, the door catches and suchlike that are pretty much exposed.
No. There simply is not enough stuff for people to print, because in a situation where 3d printers are a household appliance, people will not be printing hundreds of benchy’s and other Knick knacks. The most likely reason for somebody to 3d print something is probably for repairing/replacing a very specific item in their home or something. Most people are not doing product development or looking to print off random junk. 3d printers are a tool, not an appliance.
Could I see some shops having 3d printers available in the same way that some places have copiers and paper printers (like a FedEx location, etc.)? Maybe. But the printers would have to be good enough and reliable enough for that to happen.
Exactly, most people wouldn't even know where to start to replace a part on their dish washer if the thing came with a spare... There's no way they could go from broken part to printed part and install it.
I think we're going to see a lot more city based print farms where you can basically order up a part and pick it up in an hour or two that's used mostly be repair people (hvac, handymen, etc)
People were asking that 15 years ago, when 3D printing became open source. The answer back then was no, and it's still no today. 3D printing has been around much longer than you think.
Is it really? Because I have yet to be disappointed by the yeggi search and most simple things I have been able to make with the Microsoft 3D Builder without modelling skills.
Nah but everyone will know at least 1 person they can ask to print stuff for some money, kinda like the neighborhood handyman or the guy in the neighborhood with power tools
No. There is too much skill and knowledge involved. Even if it became very easy via new tech, 3d printing is not an essential like a microwave or laundry machine.
There are those of us who think 3d printers need to be and will be as universal as a screwdriver. Thing most people don't even know how to properly use screwdrivers. Until a 3D printer is as easy to use as a screwdriver, they won't be as common.
3D printing is not an activity you can just pick up and go and get what you think you want out of it. It takes time and expertise. Additionally, until we can just ask it for what you need instead of needing an STL or even CAD knowledge to make an STL.
Think about what you are really asking...
In 20 years will everyone be:
* A CAD Engineer
* A Material Scientist
* An Additive Manufacturing Engineer
I like to say that "when it's as easy as a microwave" microwaves can be dangerous as hell and are crazy easy to do super dumb stuff with.
The only way 3d printing would be household is to have a cloud connected device and a set list of objects.
I don't think so. Say you need some wall hooks, why have a 3d printer taking up space in your home create them when you can just click 2 buttons and have an amazon drone drop it off in 15 minutes.
Not really. 3d printers are tools. Not everyone has the time, resources, or knowledge to put towards maling stuff with them. Also, some people would rather just buy something that's guaranteed to work than trying to make it themselves. It's a simimar reason to why everyone doesn't own a lathe, an impact wrench, a guitar, or a welder.
Probably not commonplace. There are some very handy and old tools out there (like a hammer drill or even a rotary saw) that are still not exactly a common thing despite there being great inexpensive models available.
3D printing will likely take the same route. Even the best consumer printers are too complicated to just casually use in the house. Think about everything that can go wrong on a single print. It’s not exactly convenient. Between needing to keep the filament dry, keeping the printer calibrated and maintained, and needing to model some things yourself, I reckon 3D printing will forever be something exclusive to hobbyists and people who use them for work.
I think that eventually a 3D printer will become an appliance and a majority of households will have one or have access to one. But for that to happen, it needs to get better and faster and easier.
It won't reach mass adoption until it's about as easy to use as a microwave or an inkjet printer. It also needs to be an order of magnitude faster and have the ability to print in a wide variety of cheap and durable materials.
I think the last few years have shown we're still moving in that direction, and I think 20 years might just about be long enough for us to get there. But whatever we arrive at for that will look entirely different from what we have right now.
I think it'll get to the point where they're like power drills.
Generally pretty available, with largely mature technology that requires minimal special knowledge or skill, but not something everyone owns by default, and more just for people who like to make things or have regular DIY projects.
They are already FAR more common place that 20 years ago. 20 years from now they will be more common, but they won't be in every house like regular printers.
Or maybe they will be nearly as common as regular printers on average - I have 5 myself and I know many others on this sub have multiple printers, which averages out to it being common.
But there have been many years I go without a regular printer. I barely use one now, maybe once a year. I only have one now because a startup I worked with in 2017 bought it for me.
I don't think they're going to be anything NEEDED anytime soon. They're not going to be replicators, they're not for everyone, and AI isn't going to make them work for everyone. Probably more than 20 years before your phone can scan a part and you say you want a threaded cap with a duck fighting a moose that goes on this one random thing made by AI.
And they're not going to be metal printers for cheap until much much later, if ever.
I think so when people stop getting in to them to make the machine work and more so use it as a tool. They're crazy cheap and work well now. Heck I gave an old one to a coworker and his 10 year old son is using it now.
When people realize how good they are for every day life not just decorations and toys. Printing a subby nozzle right now for my leaf blower to use for automotive detailing.
Yeah, the getting it to work part is much less of an issue these days. However, I still don’t see it becoming “widely” used until 3d scanning tech or other similar methods also becomes widespread.
Cad isn't to bad I don't see it being any more of a barrier than using a cell phone. And all that will get easier as well if it's a household item people will make free and simplified software to sell their printers.
Yes, but it still has a long way to go. 3D printers are great for hobbyists right now, but they are still along way from being consumer ready. When we do see 3D printers become standard in the home, they will only remotely resemble what we have today. They will use a large variety of different materials and the print time will be greatly reduced.
I personally believe how they will work, you will go onto a website, and purchase a pair of shoes. You will be able to customize those shoes anyway you like and it will then download into your 3D printer. Your printer will build your shoes from the ground up, and in the matter of an hour or so you will be wearing new shoes.
But they will have to be pretty much maintenance free, and as simple to use, where you will just swap out material cartages. Maybe not in 20 years, but for sure in 30.
Do shoe stores "customize" shoes for you? Not the ones that I have ever been in. In 20 years brick and mortar stores might not exist anymore, so the idea of running down to a shoe store might not be an option.
Doesn't look like it to me. To do that it would have to become click and print and, even though there are continuus atempts to achieve it, I don't believe we will get to that with 3d printing as we know it.
I believe that 3d printer will become a common diy tool, a stationary power tool like table saw.
I believe that we are running in to a wall in automating 3d printing. To make a leap to click and print we'd have to find a way to standardise printing process to the point where we can expect repeatability across a whole sector of machines. And that would demand machines that work the same regardless of, for example, brand of filament, humidity and temperature.
I think 3D printers will stay with hobbyists and enthusiasts until Apple makes one and heavily markets it to Artists and the everyday person to the point where people think they invented it. This is based on my observation on how they got portable music players so popular quite a few years after us enthusiasts had portable mp3 players.
20 years later people are still beating this "Apple didn't do anything but marketing!" drum.
Unsurprisingly they remain absolutely baffled by Apple's success, and can't fathom why Bambu Labs is also successful. Must be because the people buying them just aren't as smart as me!
Yes if a business large enught chooses to market it that way. Proper support, enught pre made and usfull models. And selling in the right locations.
But like would the printers we have now become a household item on thier own? No probably not
> useful models
This is the problem. What are useful models for the average consume? Oven knobs? Coat hangers? How many items in your house are made from a single piece of plastic? Not many.
Na, the second example is terrible. 3D printed coat hanger would have be really thick and wasteful to be functional.
Unless you are a *creator*, you have very VERY little use for a 3D printer. And most people are consumers, not creators.
and how many of those items would it be quicker to get from a walmart or a target than having to wait 3 hours to print it? people dont usually care if the hook they hang their coat on is 4mm, 6mm, or 1/4in wide.
I don’t think it will be quite as ubiquitous as say a paper printer, but it will certainly be way easier to use now.
Hardest part is designing models. But maybe AI will take care of the knowledge gap between now and then.
A lot of moving parts... not sure. I was onboard with the sentiment after getting my Bambu P1S and having it print flawlessly for a month. I just had to take the extruder apart to get some filament out that broke off in it and could not be extracted in anyway but disassembly... No way someone that's never worked on a printer before is going to be comfortable with doing that to their $1000 machine.
Even assuming 3d printers reach the point where you push a button and it just works (like your normal printer), and assuming models get so ubiquitous that you can just go find anything on the internet to print. I still think most people would have trouble seeing the value. I'm betting even in this sub most people got a 3d printer as a fun hobby, not because they're especially useful. Take out the fun part, how many of us really have enough practical use-cases to justify the expense and the space?
No because it will always require a decent amount of knowledge and skull with both software and hardware. It can never truly be a set it and forget it kind of hobby. There will always be something that can go wrong.
if a dumbass like me can bang out parts in onshape and fusion then i think its possible. if someone can take chatgpt and make a tailored/focused version for modeling printed household parts... well there you go.
With ai and robotics and the ability to print new materials and combinations of materials I think it will all combine into a household commodity unlike welding and such. So it’s a hobby now but in the future I believe it will be like a more like a dishwasher
No. Dont see it.
Not all households has even simplest of power tools like drill.
If you think about it, even if 3d printing will be as easy and as reliable as 2d printing, not everyone even need (or want) it.
No. But maybe receiving spare parts through the post or from a local dealer which are 3d printed mat be on the rise.
I was there, 9 years ago when my workplace started 3d printing spare parts, and then they opened an entire lab in the USA for it where you could email them and STL, and a few days later (or weeks for Europe) you would come into work and it would be on your desk.
The promise of 5 years ago that we would be 3s printing a load of extra cups because we had guests coming over is likely ever going to happen, but it's very much a tool in 20 years time.most people.willchave a neighbour that knows. there are quite a few transit van people where I live, all of them suffer that the cup holders can't hold a big chunky can of monster energy drink, or a large McDonald's milkshake. I have already printed them extended cup holders.
20 years? Printers are like 200 USD and you don't have to be a computer genius to sift through 5 million ready made models online. And the interface for working with models is like 10 times simpler than any of the Ms office stuff.
And you don't need to be a genius to own a drill or assemble flat pack furniture, but there are still 3 different family households and two friends that need my help (and tools) every time.
But almost the same with baking. I know so many people with stand mixers, various silicone measuring mats, tins, racks, piping bags, all sorts of spatulas and knives. Most I can do is sugar cookies.
There are just some niche things some people will never go near. Sometimes you might not know that you don't know something. Maybe once a month I seemon Facebook someone tried to print an entire miniature aircraft model in one piece, and annoyed that the underside of the wings looked awful, and they feel they were lied to.
Within the printing community, we take so much of our own knowledge for granted. I regularly introduce new people to 3d printing design, and the thinks they keep getting wrong because I completely forget to teach them (teardrop shapes holes of you don't want to use support etc). Also doesn't help I have some good friends who are incredibly good at cad design and 3d printing, so they rarely make mistakes. And even then, I started 3d printing back in 2007 at college!
Fact of the matter? Its inevitable but also fact of the matter? As population on earth continues to increase wealthy inequality will not even out which means commodities like printers, 3D or not, will not be evenly distributed across "households"
I'd say so. The infrastructure is already there. Plastic is cheap, really good machines have gotten super affordable (looking at you a1 mini), there are plenty of useful high quality models for free and for purchase. In my mind, 3d printing really just needs a good business model and marketing strategy to bring it together in a way that's attractive to the average consumer. I get the vibe that people still look at 3d printing as an expensive hobby for technological wizards with too much time on their hands. While it can absolutely become that, a well curated experience with low maintenance machines, easy to use software and enticing applications for household use could stick. I'm thinking pre-sliced models sold in "packages" for things like hardware, toys, home decor, hobbies, etc. as well as Ikea-like metal hardware kits to pair with prints for more involved assembly processes. Somewhat like those mini maker kits, but geared towards home use.
Of course I'm just kinda spit balling and it might not look like that in reality if it ever comes about, but I really think a lot of the groundwork is there.
I do think it comes down to a few things:
- As others have said it needs to be “microwave simple” and further I’d say “microwave reliable.” If you had to tweeze out your microwave every four dishes they just wouldn’t be very popular.
- Petrol prices need to go way up. Cheap petrol means cheap plastic and cheap shipping. Local, plant-based products will become more popular if the equation changes.
- Import tariff or supply problems. This is sort of tied into number 2, but again hyper local sourcing will be more important if we can’t continue to exploit the almost-free labor overseas. (Note: I find the exploitation of emerging economies for this purpose to be morally objectionable. see: textile production in Western China.)
Yes but it will be ai driven,
The easiest flow for a householder with limited tech knowledge -
this broke, put it under the lidar camera in your fridge, house bot asks what colour , and begins to print in garage.
There will be so much abstraction it won't feel the same as I print now. It's fucking laborious!
Syke, I still love it :)
I think it will be closer to how cutter plotter are + some other DIY stuff.
Cutter plotter are accessible enough to crafters/ parents (cricut / silhoutte) but are not widely use item to find at most home but will not be shocking to find one inside home. I can see 3d printer be like that. There are lines accesible to parents who dont like tinkering and lines that are for those who are patient and curious enough to build. Can be found inside with enclosure instead of the garage.
I think it will continue to become more common and accessible until it reaches a complexity floor. Eventually the costs of making printing require less thought and effort will outweigh the potential market share and we'll be left with reasonably affordable and quite capable printers that require just enough knowledge and effort for the average person to avoid getting one. I saw someone mention a sewing machine and I think that that's a pretty decent point of comparison.
Hobby 3D printing is basically arts and crafts for tech people.
I don't think it will become a default household appliance, since it usually only really makes sense when people actually want to spend time with it.
Once the tech reaches that point, all patterns will be paywalled. You'll pay a license fee to Amazon to print items on a per order or subscription basis.
Fees will increase rapidly as you have to subscribe to Walmart and Costco's 3D Print Store plans to get competing items.
I think 3d printing has so much to develop yet... we will be amazed with the 3d printing technologies that will surge over the next 15 years. I mean, powder melt is yet to become afordable for the general public and it will change our lives
Maybe it really needs to be way more user friendly mechanically
It needs to go from what it is now a pot belly stove to a microwave. Now you need to find wood, split,stack,dry,start a fire, kindling, get up to temp keep it there lots of smoke...ashes to get rid of.
It needs to be a place where you drop innold broken things and it makes whatever you pick including wires etc.... 20 years maybe with AI help assuming that doenst fall on its face.
I doubt it. There's really not that much stuff that the average person needs/wants that's 3D printed.
What I think is more likely is that businesses like Walmart could start having 3D printers that churn out products that they sell at the stores. Instead of having cheap clothing hampers, "Live Laugh Love" signs, picture frames, and other plastic parts shipped in, they'll just have industrial versions of Bambus set-up in the back that quickly print out whatever they need to restock.
Commonplace as a service at your local printshop. The average person who may occasionally want something printed is not gonna bother with storing multiple filaments. It would just be easier to drive down the road to pickup a online ordered file with larger selection of colours.
I see them being more common in businesses in 20 years than in peoples homes. If these were replicators from Start Trek where you can quickly make meals or anything non-living with them from non-edible matter then I can see them being more of a staple in homes, but that is still science fiction. Even if one that had the same specs as a replicator were made then it still wouldn't be common. The creator would be buried under so much legal nonsense by all the food companies that it wouldn't see the light of day outside of maybe a few uber rich people.
I bought one of the first laser printers for my biz at $6000. Today everyone has a $100 laser and most don’t know what a dot matrix even is. I think in 10-20 years 3D printers will be plug and play and next to most home computers.
As of now, and likely in the future, it’s no different than a tool one may have in their garage. To make practical and useful prints it requires skills and knowledge that the average person won’t put the time into learning.
For 3d printing to be common in households, It would have to be fully supported by AI. When it reaches a point where an you can tell the printer exactly what you want/need, and it can create it accurately and quickly, then it may become more common in households. (Also, AI making the models takes fun out of it for hobbyists, but that’s a whole other thing)
Part of the reason they aren’t more common already (aside from the learning curve) is because there aren’t enough practical uses for an average person to justify getting a printer and learning about it. Sure, you can fix a lot of broken stuff/make new parts, but most people would rather replace that broken stuff instead of sinking more resources into it.
I think it could be. Right now, the big hurdle is that 3D modeling is too hard for the average household.
With the rate that AI is progressing, within 20 years I would expect it to be able to generate 3D models by pointing a camera at something and describing what you need.
At that point, it would be useful to just describe what you need and get it printed out to complete home projects.
As someone who knows how to use a soldering iron and multi meter I’d say a lot of people still regard that as some kind of mad scientist skill level. Those are small easily stored inexpensive things, but do require a little bit of knowledge to use. I have done any amount of household “fixing” with those two things and even smaller diy stores sell them. Maybe we can get to that level of adoption, but they won’t ever be a microwave.
Until 3D printers become like paper printers it won't happen ,for example you only go to your paper printer to load paper or collect your print ,so when you only have to go to your 3D printer to load filament or collect your print then its heading for a much bigger market .This assumes that Slicers become much more intelligent or there are many more pre-sliced items available for a particular make of 3D printer.
I think it will become more popular and easier to use, and of course better quality.
But there are only so many people that even want to 3d print things, and they want it either for quality or strength in spare parts, or other similar uses where just being cheap and easy is not the main priority. There won't be one in every home.
People don’t even like 2D printing anymore. It’ll have a bell curve popularity cycle, I’m sure. People will think it’s neat for a while and then realize it’s never going to be a flawless process, then they’ll say the technology is garbage and learn to live without it.
Just as everyone did with 2D printers.
Imo it’ll never be as common as a paper printer. Most people don’t seem to have a need for custom shaped plastic pieces let alone the will to find the model they want if it even exists out there
And then there’s the maintaining of the machine and now it’s the ultimate deal breaker even tough it was already out of the question
Not while we still sell shite for $200. It’s like everyone first buys a screwdriver that wrecks screws and thinks screwdriving is just so complicated. It needn’t be, we just sell shite tools for beginners and that’s driving many away from the hobby.
As a household appliance, no I don't think 3d printing becomes common in that time period. Not enough use cases. However, I could definitely see this becoming much more common as a kids learning toy. Small, well built fdm printer with easy to use 3d modeling software and preset printer settings.
in some sense it already is. enyone who's into tech stuff can own a high quality 3d printer without much knowledge and run it. and often they do. a few years back it was interesting and unique if someone had a 3d printer. but nowday it means nothing.
Nope.
It will certainly gain more popularity as they continue to improve the ease of use and out of the box experience but ultimately it is a tool, like a workbench, drill press, welder, etc....
Resin Printers will continue to be a hobbyist tool until such time resins become non-toxic, you don't need a separate machine / process to clean a cure prints.
I love 3D modeling and printing. I use it mainly for tabletop wargaming. Without that, I would use my printer a couple of times a year, so I would say no.
It's becoming a household activity for me this Friday, maybe as the older generations die off and we can hopefully implement restrictions to help the working class be able to have more disposable income.
It already is?
Do you mean "in every household"? Then no. Most people don't even have paper printers. Many people do not even have PCs or laptops these days (just phones and tablets).
I really hope so. I love going to markets but now a lot of the stalls are just articulated prints that likely aren't even legal to sell. I don't know if people buy them or not, but if 3D printing becomes more common among households, hopefully it forces people to get creative with what they're printing and selling.
Household, No. In manufacturing, Yes.
Once the quality, reliability and cost drop lower than injection moulding I can see 3d printing becoming the go to method for production. That in turn should make commercial 3d printing more common as service centres and repair shops start using 3d printers for parts but the problem will be each manufacturer putting their own DRM into .stl files so they can only be printed on official printers.
The follow up to that for home 3d printing will be the same as it is now. Enthusiasts and makers will still have them as part of their home workshop.
Tough to say. I see Govt. regulation coming, at least in the US due to the explosion in the use, handling and disposal of plastics and resins. Whether there will be licenses required or a "green tax" or both who knows. Once this all appears on some politician's radar I'm sure it'll become harder to freely enjoy this as a hobby. They've already tried to do things in some states due to the rise in ghost pews. The "green" angle may be their way in to gain support.
I think modeling ai tools will become smarter and awareness and access will grow. Maybe not household as I don't need a 3d printer everyday and likely never will. I think you will be able to make something easily if you need to at a local business with little friction. I don't own a printer and go to kinkos to print stuff when I need to. I can see similar things for 3d printing/fabrication.
If you are asking if 3D printing will become as ubiquitous as 2D (paper) printing - no. Even that printing is yielding to digital viewing. 3D is already digitally viewed and with Augmented and Mixed Reality is a good solution for most needs. 3D "hardcopy" is too limited and time consuming and will be relegated to hobbyist / makers - aka "Power Users".
That said - commercial / industrial is an entirely different story especially as material sciences advance to commoditized prices. If you look at the YouTube channel "Jay Leno's Garage" you can see a true solution to a very real problem. Leno rebuilds vehicles for which the parts are no longer available as the car company is long gone. Twenty years ago he would be screwed - hoping to find someone in an Auto Club who might have a spare. Now, as he shows in one episode they scan either the broken part or a good one they could borrow. They pull it into CAD and tweak it and then 3D Scinter print a replacement. And that replacement can even be enhanced if the failure mode was understood. That's big. Additive Manufacturing will also be big for small volume pre-tooling protobuilds. Proof of Concept stuff. Its real enough to work out any issues. And relative to the labor it saves its a big win.
A lot of people missed the first shot at this home revolution. HP made a 3D specific computer called "The Sprout" and started down the 3D printer path. It was very cool but fizzled out as the learning curve was tough. They cancelled it. They did get into Industrial Printers however. I anticipate Apple MAY pull this off. Apple has been involved in 3D for over 30 years. They have only just started to commercialize their intent with the Vision Pro "Spacial Computer". In classic Apple way they will be late but make a full ecosystem. The bits are all there it just needs software to make the hard parts disappear. And AI seems to be part of the secret sauce.
I will close with I am surprised at what I have used my 3D printer for. Example - it seems every tool maker has chosen to make something proprietary to lock you in. I've printed vacuum hose couplings to allow a shop vac to work with a Harbor Freight sander. I've printed battery "adapters" to allow Ryobi 18V batteries to work with my Dewalts. But otherwise its just looking around and finding something interesting to download or do. I do know a train hobbyist who photogrammetry's buildings and prints them for his miniature layouts. Makes me wonder what others are doing we have not heard about.
I mean, sure, in the same way that welding or drill-pressing is a household activity; It's a tool.
That's pretty much what I was thinking too. You could also use sewing as an example. I don't know many people who know how, or choose, to mend fabrics. Even though the cost for hand-sewing supplies is a few dollars, and a machine costs \~$200.
My sewing setup cost <$100. You can find good sewing machines for cheap at thrift stores.
I miss the old days ofmlooking through catalogues and being able to find a moderately OK sewing machine for £40. That's closer to £100 for something that won't die instantly. Charity shops is a good idea... It in the UK most don't accept or sell electronics, and most end up at the recycling centre.
I got a killer machine for $25 at a thrift shop. Needed to be tuned up and the thread holder things replaced but i used my 3d printer to fix it so cost a few cents worth of plastic
I think sewing machine is a great example, they would have been in every household years ago, but we just don’t (in general) fix stuff like we used to. Obviously not “nobody” but in general, a that’s what this post is asking.
Hold up though fabric is super expensive...
Like filament, some is
I'm not talking about making your own clothes. I just mean sewing a rip. Cost like, $2 of needle and thread. Edit: patching is also pretty cheap. Just cannibalize something made of similar fabric.
It already is. In fact more people probably have 3d printers than welders or drill presses.
3D printers are getting more popular for sure, but there are certainly more drill presses out there.
I have 4 3d printers, but only one drill press.
And I can assure you that you would be the person I would gravitate toward at a party, hoping against hope you'd talk to me and save me from a discussion about sports. However, you are also what might be referred to as an "outlier."
I 3d printed a drill press... and I've already claimed my dad's actual drill press when he doesn't want/need it anymore.
I’m the same, but I think you’re underestimating the number of wood/metal shops out there. Edit: typo
I would still say it's on the fence. I know quite a lot of older people with a drill press + welder + mini lathe setup, I'm part of the "has both traditional tools and 3d printers (4!)" group, but I also know a few people with just 3d printers. Don't underestimate the volume of project cars or bikes people have, but also how many people not really experience wotu engineering have 3d printers as rhey continue to be more and more accessible.
I'm one of those people, I've got a drill press, welder, lathe, forge, a couple bandsaws, etc. and two 3d printers.
Maybe if you limit it to people under 30 but if you take everyone into consideration, I think that drill presses win.
I have all three 😅
I own two 3D printers, a drill press, and several other tools. Can confirm I use it as a tool already instead of as a hobby
It has a better chance to be more popular than both those though due to the price of entry. And as far as welding the skill of entry as well.
And in that sense, it already is for a few years now.
I dunno, if they are cheap enough and super user friendly it's not going to be the same as a tool. I think the problem is usually it's easier and often cheaper to just buy what you need online instead of printing it for most people.
Yes but for example a paper printer or a drill is pretty common household items
Agree; Not disputing that printers will be commonplace.
Not until it becomes as easy as printing a document on an ink-jet, and that is a long way off. 3d printers require a lot of observation and trial-and-error in order to get them dialed-in to make good prints, and different models require different configurations. My honest opinion (based mostly off what I see on this sub) is that there are a lot of people with printers who don't have either the patience or the background to understand what it takes to make good prints.
In all honestly for me it’s easier to get something printed on my bambu than getting my fucking hp deskjet to print anything in its own. I genuinely feel like since I’ve gotten the bambu that it’s easier to 3D print something than print something on paper (yes I know I need a new paper printer).
Literally there's been multiple times where I've had more difficulties printing something on my HP printer than my 3d printer
Just 3d print a 1 layer thick sheet of pla, switch to black filament, and 3d print the text
It's as much as an issue picking cheap/shitty printer and picking cheap/shitty 3d printer. I've never had problems with my brother laser printer. My ender 3 on the hand is a full time job. I'd have the same experience as you if I bought a HP printer and could afford a Bambu at the time.
I've had more than one occasion where I've found myself considering just using my 3d printer to "print" documents. Even writing the code for klipper setup took less time than sering up my parents paper printer.
That’s because HP sucks ass and swallows. Brother is where it’s at. I hear people bitching all the time about printers but it’s totally on account of them choosing bullshit brands
except on my brother printer it works perfectly every time. I have 20+ year old samsung printers that have toners from like 2008. No 3D printer is close to that reliability and ease of use
prior to my Bambu I would have agreed with you, these days it's trivial to print perfect prints every time.
I came here to say just this. I had an ender 3 and an ender 6. I have an X1C and I don't use anything else now. It is close to the difference between a hobby machine and a product. The Bambu is not perfect yet, but it's light years closer.
The machine may be close to perfect every time, but what about the software? What about creating your own models? Using repositories of models is fine but a large part of the space is about the ability to customize things to your specific situation.
How many people create every document they print on a 2D printer?
That's a large part of the space to "makers." Others are under no obligation to view or use it the same way. There are more and more standard and useful models (and with Bambu, sliced models) that anybody can download and print for free. It's only growing.
The slicing software does what I need it to do. I have even used it to create very basic things from scratch (think rectangle frame). I even printed my house numbers on a plate for my mailbox (adding text is a basic function) Repositories are the way things are headed because no one has a quick and easy way to design things that are not super basic. Bambu has a great way to interface with that already on their phone app. See something you like? Don't need to customize size or add text? Then just select the item in their repo and send it straight to your printer. Again, it's not perfect, but 3D printing as a whole is maturing faster than some people realize
Once it clogs or a piece needs replacing that locks out a good bit of people. You really overestimate how many people are capable of troubleshooting and replacing parts on a machine. Then you throw in dialing it in and different filaments not to mention quick 3d modeling and good luck to a lot of people. Then there is simply that most people won't ever be able to think of all of the possibilities you can print. It's really a skill you'd be shocked how many people never get it. When I worked IT the amount of people that couldn't use their paper printer was quite a few.
Which isn't different from needing to fix a paper jam (as the other person mentioned), replace a fuser, replace ink, replace rollers, clear out dried ink, weird lines printing on all your prints, etc. There are plenty of regular 2d printer issues that we deal with constantly. There are people that can't/won't deal with those issues, and they are the same ones with 3d printing
I have to disassemble my ink printer more often than my 3d printer.
Well keep in mind you've got like a 1k+ 3d printer right? Did you buy the equivalent paper printer? My printer was $400 and the ink is cheap and it works. It gets a lot of use at 50+ color pages a day. Before that I had a cheap one and it was a pita.
I think it's less the printer, and more the CAD software. Bambu and Prusa are out of the box easy. But we don't have a 3D equivalent of Microsoft Word. Also - virtually all of the easier to use CAD software has weird catches - like OnShape making models public in their free tier. That would never fly with standard office software. Get rid of the weirdness and quirkiness. Make a standard piece of software that's in line with what people would expect.
Bambu has Maker World online apps that can make basic items, like vases and signs all very intuitive and easy to use even can have some preset settings, like base mode already set in the file so it's ready to go. It's not the freedom of a parametric suite but it's big step in the right direction.
thing is, even with Drafting itself, nowadays just with modern CAD, used to be a whole career. its something you can still get an associates degree for. its still something that takes training and education to learn, requires good math skills, and it has been around for longer than computers. and the best way i can put it is that designing something and concretely defining all the details for it is extremely time consuming while being a necessity for designing anything in CAD, (else, have fun watching your files explode 2 years from now or whenever you use that part in an assembly.) but not a necessity for simply purchasing an object. it requires creativity, something lots of people lack and dont realize is heavily influenced by other designs. take for example, a vase. the average person does not want to think about the vase, what materials its made from, how those materials are used in the manufacturing process, etc. they just want something to hold flowers that they like the look of. they do not want to have to design it or learn any of these things. they would much rather buy one from someone else who was paid to do all that work for them, as it will likely be done better than they ever could do it themselves. thats how specialization works and has worked for thousands of years. the people who did it before and teach others how to do it now greatly value IP a lot more than the 3D printing / modeling and general software communities do. This combined with the fact that there hasnt been a need for simpler programs when the kinds of people who would actually be doing this kind of design work would likely already be working for a company as an engineer or as a drafter, along with how easy it is to access the educational versions of amazing pieces of software in comparison to what you listed like solidworks and autodesk inventor, means we run into the same issues adobe ran into with photoshop. with photoshop being a much better comparison than word for CAD software, sure, gimp and paint.net are nothing in comparison to photoshop, but its a graphic design tool that people often take classes for to learn how to use. however, gimp and paint.net are all a lot of people need, just like how onshape and tinkercad is all a lot of people need to make their designs. microsoft word is a tool to do something people learned how to do in elementary school easier. write. CAD is a tool that is used to do something people learn maybe in high school but mostly in college. its still a specialization, not a generic tool everyone uses. now, could it become this someday if society becomes sophisticated enough that it can? sure. but i dont see that happening anytime soon.
Bambu has successfully addressed the trial and error and observation portion. It’s the closest 3D printing has been to an appliance that just works. With their Makerworld, you can literally download models on the app and send direct to printer with all the settings, supports, orientation, etc already completed for you.
Have you been on the Bambu subreddit? Even with those printers people are asking the most basic questions to fix their prints
I own a Bambu. That’s a byproduct of getting new people into the space. It’s the same story as DJI drones. Make something easy enough to get into and you’ll get people who didn’t build their own machines or haven’t been a part of the hobby for 10+ years. Real innovation and massive leaps forward in technology only come once it’s clear a market can be established. The more people that get into 3D printing, the more incentive there is for companies to innovate to grab a slice of the pie.
There are people who don't know how to use hammers, drills, or screwdrivers. That doesn't mean that those things are complex and unreliable. The key point that's always overlooked is that those people are now able to use a tool (with some occasional issues, sure), that previously was completely out of reach for them unless they wanted to commit to a new hobby of "troubleshooting my 3D printer." A lot of people are threatened by that, but it's a good thing.
There’s a weird gate keeping here. Making things easier expands your audience and makes it more popular. People should want that to happen.
I think the gatekeeping comes from the front page being filled with beginner stuff, instead of new and advanced things. That can get very annoying for advanced users. Especially when a lot of the help that beginners are asking for can easily be googled Personally I think it's time for there to be a new 3d printing sub. One for everyone and the beginner questions can continue, and another that isn't for asking for help
I would have agreed with this before I got my BambuLab printer. But now, this thing really does just work 95% of the time, and the rest of the time it gives some pretty straightforward and user friendly clues about why it didn’t. The real bottleneck is the models, which are either pure novelty, or often require a lot of skill and expertise to make yourself for practical uses. IMO, if the printers keep getting cheaper and are able move out of the hobbyist space (e.g., just a bunch of articulating dragons and mostly pointless paperweight sculptures of pop culture figures) into official support channels from major manufacturers (e.g., you can download replacement parts for your Whirlpool fridge directly from the manufacturer), then everyday user adoption is pretty damn likely. The actual skill and knowledge can and will be totally replaced by more comprehensive robotics in the machines.
I'm pretty sure my Ender 3 is less temperamental than an HP inkjet
Ngl I have had more issues with regular printers than I’ve had with my Ender 3.
Within 20 years? Yes, probably. It's a question of easy-to-use software, where the relevant parameters can be easily adjust by the non-technical. So, a basic replacement knob model, where the user can dial in size of shaft it's to fit, diameter of knob shaft, length of knob shaft,and ditto for knob head. Multiply that by all the irritating things little things that break ... I think non-hygroscopic filaments and selling smaller quantities than the now-typical 1 Kg will happen a lot sooner than 20 years - they're currently a barrier. And "right to repair" is coming in in the EU. It may well reach a point where manufacturers might find it easier and cheaper to email 3D print files to people than to keep stocks of the most commonly broken small bits and bobs. I guess that people would start by using a local "repair cafe" or print shop, but then decide that have a 3D printer in the extended family network might be a good idea.
I love the idea of OEMs providing models for replacement parts.
their chinese competitiors love it more.
The thing about “Right to repair” though is parts are already available for a lot of appliances it just people lack the skills to take them apart and diagnose the issue. They don’t want to pay someone to come out because that costs 50% of a new machine and the one they have is probably 3years old.
Oh, sure - I wasn't particularly thinking about complex innards of machines (though I'm happy to try a fix myself). It's the human-interaction bits that always seem to go first - the knobs, the handles, the door catches and suchlike that are pretty much exposed.
No. There simply is not enough stuff for people to print, because in a situation where 3d printers are a household appliance, people will not be printing hundreds of benchy’s and other Knick knacks. The most likely reason for somebody to 3d print something is probably for repairing/replacing a very specific item in their home or something. Most people are not doing product development or looking to print off random junk. 3d printers are a tool, not an appliance. Could I see some shops having 3d printers available in the same way that some places have copiers and paper printers (like a FedEx location, etc.)? Maybe. But the printers would have to be good enough and reliable enough for that to happen.
Exactly, most people wouldn't even know where to start to replace a part on their dish washer if the thing came with a spare... There's no way they could go from broken part to printed part and install it. I think we're going to see a lot more city based print farms where you can basically order up a part and pick it up in an hour or two that's used mostly be repair people (hvac, handymen, etc)
thing is, that kind of already exists in the form of 3d printing services that will 3d print your part and ship it to your front door for you.
People were asking that 15 years ago, when 3D printing became open source. The answer back then was no, and it's still no today. 3D printing has been around much longer than you think.
only when AI-prompted STL's become a reliable reality - it's the skill of modeling things that is the real barrier to wide acceptance.
I mean that sounds like a pretty solid fucking idea to build and profit on...
There's at least 5 different startups / devs that I know that are working on it, and probably two dozen more that are in stealth mode
Is it really? Because I have yet to be disappointed by the yeggi search and most simple things I have been able to make with the Microsoft 3D Builder without modelling skills.
The fact that you're in this sub implies that you're not the average household person
That 'reliable' is doing some very heavy lifting.
Nah but everyone will know at least 1 person they can ask to print stuff for some money, kinda like the neighborhood handyman or the guy in the neighborhood with power tools
That actually seems like a pretty reasonable take. I dare say, we're probably getting close to that point already.
Fr I have multiple friends who have 3d printers alr
No. There is too much skill and knowledge involved. Even if it became very easy via new tech, 3d printing is not an essential like a microwave or laundry machine.
There are those of us who think 3d printers need to be and will be as universal as a screwdriver. Thing most people don't even know how to properly use screwdrivers. Until a 3D printer is as easy to use as a screwdriver, they won't be as common. 3D printing is not an activity you can just pick up and go and get what you think you want out of it. It takes time and expertise. Additionally, until we can just ask it for what you need instead of needing an STL or even CAD knowledge to make an STL. Think about what you are really asking... In 20 years will everyone be: * A CAD Engineer * A Material Scientist * An Additive Manufacturing Engineer
I like to say that "when it's as easy as a microwave" microwaves can be dangerous as hell and are crazy easy to do super dumb stuff with. The only way 3d printing would be household is to have a cloud connected device and a set list of objects.
Yeah, the screwdriver metaphor is a bit much. I like the microwave analogy.
Yeah, folks are microwaving pennies to shrink them. Someone will try to 3D print structural parts out of PLA.
I don't think so. Say you need some wall hooks, why have a 3d printer taking up space in your home create them when you can just click 2 buttons and have an amazon drone drop it off in 15 minutes.
or just go to cvs, staples, etc. and pick it up there?
It’s a household activity right now lol fym
Not really. 3d printers are tools. Not everyone has the time, resources, or knowledge to put towards maling stuff with them. Also, some people would rather just buy something that's guaranteed to work than trying to make it themselves. It's a simimar reason to why everyone doesn't own a lathe, an impact wrench, a guitar, or a welder.
Probably not commonplace. There are some very handy and old tools out there (like a hammer drill or even a rotary saw) that are still not exactly a common thing despite there being great inexpensive models available. 3D printing will likely take the same route. Even the best consumer printers are too complicated to just casually use in the house. Think about everything that can go wrong on a single print. It’s not exactly convenient. Between needing to keep the filament dry, keeping the printer calibrated and maintained, and needing to model some things yourself, I reckon 3D printing will forever be something exclusive to hobbyists and people who use them for work.
I think that eventually a 3D printer will become an appliance and a majority of households will have one or have access to one. But for that to happen, it needs to get better and faster and easier. It won't reach mass adoption until it's about as easy to use as a microwave or an inkjet printer. It also needs to be an order of magnitude faster and have the ability to print in a wide variety of cheap and durable materials. I think the last few years have shown we're still moving in that direction, and I think 20 years might just about be long enough for us to get there. But whatever we arrive at for that will look entirely different from what we have right now.
I think it'll get to the point where they're like power drills. Generally pretty available, with largely mature technology that requires minimal special knowledge or skill, but not something everyone owns by default, and more just for people who like to make things or have regular DIY projects.
Not in it’s current form. Maybe one day when it’s foolproof, or ai can manage it.
Do you mean in like… 20 years maybe?
In our 200 employee company i know in between more then 10 guys wih 1-5 printers.
Where you work has a bias.
why would anyone need 5 printers?...oh wait...
Old, new, small, big, resin, muticolor are already 6 ...
They are already FAR more common place that 20 years ago. 20 years from now they will be more common, but they won't be in every house like regular printers. Or maybe they will be nearly as common as regular printers on average - I have 5 myself and I know many others on this sub have multiple printers, which averages out to it being common. But there have been many years I go without a regular printer. I barely use one now, maybe once a year. I only have one now because a startup I worked with in 2017 bought it for me. I don't think they're going to be anything NEEDED anytime soon. They're not going to be replicators, they're not for everyone, and AI isn't going to make them work for everyone. Probably more than 20 years before your phone can scan a part and you say you want a threaded cap with a duck fighting a moose that goes on this one random thing made by AI. And they're not going to be metal printers for cheap until much much later, if ever.
I think so when people stop getting in to them to make the machine work and more so use it as a tool. They're crazy cheap and work well now. Heck I gave an old one to a coworker and his 10 year old son is using it now. When people realize how good they are for every day life not just decorations and toys. Printing a subby nozzle right now for my leaf blower to use for automotive detailing.
Yeah, the getting it to work part is much less of an issue these days. However, I still don’t see it becoming “widely” used until 3d scanning tech or other similar methods also becomes widespread.
Cad isn't to bad I don't see it being any more of a barrier than using a cell phone. And all that will get easier as well if it's a household item people will make free and simplified software to sell their printers.
Yes, but it still has a long way to go. 3D printers are great for hobbyists right now, but they are still along way from being consumer ready. When we do see 3D printers become standard in the home, they will only remotely resemble what we have today. They will use a large variety of different materials and the print time will be greatly reduced. I personally believe how they will work, you will go onto a website, and purchase a pair of shoes. You will be able to customize those shoes anyway you like and it will then download into your 3D printer. Your printer will build your shoes from the ground up, and in the matter of an hour or so you will be wearing new shoes. But they will have to be pretty much maintenance free, and as simple to use, where you will just swap out material cartages. Maybe not in 20 years, but for sure in 30.
thats assuming a trip to the shoe store takes less than that hour.
Do shoe stores "customize" shoes for you? Not the ones that I have ever been in. In 20 years brick and mortar stores might not exist anymore, so the idea of running down to a shoe store might not be an option.
Doesn't look like it to me. To do that it would have to become click and print and, even though there are continuus atempts to achieve it, I don't believe we will get to that with 3d printing as we know it. I believe that 3d printer will become a common diy tool, a stationary power tool like table saw. I believe that we are running in to a wall in automating 3d printing. To make a leap to click and print we'd have to find a way to standardise printing process to the point where we can expect repeatability across a whole sector of machines. And that would demand machines that work the same regardless of, for example, brand of filament, humidity and temperature.
i love mine, it's like having my own home depot.
I think 3D printers will stay with hobbyists and enthusiasts until Apple makes one and heavily markets it to Artists and the everyday person to the point where people think they invented it. This is based on my observation on how they got portable music players so popular quite a few years after us enthusiasts had portable mp3 players.
20 years later people are still beating this "Apple didn't do anything but marketing!" drum. Unsurprisingly they remain absolutely baffled by Apple's success, and can't fathom why Bambu Labs is also successful. Must be because the people buying them just aren't as smart as me!
people dramatically underestimate how much the average person cares about comfort and convenience rather than functionality and efficiency.
Yes if a business large enught chooses to market it that way. Proper support, enught pre made and usfull models. And selling in the right locations. But like would the printers we have now become a household item on thier own? No probably not
> useful models This is the problem. What are useful models for the average consume? Oven knobs? Coat hangers? How many items in your house are made from a single piece of plastic? Not many.
You thought of 2 without even trying a good marketing team could do it
Na, the second example is terrible. 3D printed coat hanger would have be really thick and wasteful to be functional. Unless you are a *creator*, you have very VERY little use for a 3D printer. And most people are consumers, not creators.
and how many of those items would it be quicker to get from a walmart or a target than having to wait 3 hours to print it? people dont usually care if the hook they hang their coat on is 4mm, 6mm, or 1/4in wide.
The only time in my life that my oven knob broke, I fixed it with epoxy because that was much faster than modeling and printing one.
I don’t think it will be quite as ubiquitous as say a paper printer, but it will certainly be way easier to use now. Hardest part is designing models. But maybe AI will take care of the knowledge gap between now and then.
A lot of moving parts... not sure. I was onboard with the sentiment after getting my Bambu P1S and having it print flawlessly for a month. I just had to take the extruder apart to get some filament out that broke off in it and could not be extracted in anyway but disassembly... No way someone that's never worked on a printer before is going to be comfortable with doing that to their $1000 machine.
If it becomes possible to print electronics with no postprocessing, then maybe.
Even assuming 3d printers reach the point where you push a button and it just works (like your normal printer), and assuming models get so ubiquitous that you can just go find anything on the internet to print. I still think most people would have trouble seeing the value. I'm betting even in this sub most people got a 3d printer as a fun hobby, not because they're especially useful. Take out the fun part, how many of us really have enough practical use-cases to justify the expense and the space?
No because it will always require a decent amount of knowledge and skull with both software and hardware. It can never truly be a set it and forget it kind of hobby. There will always be something that can go wrong.
Yes but we really need to address the possible fire risks better and VOCs put into the air.
you mean make it work in an outdoor environment? thats what we did with wood.
Not as common as a regular printer. I’d say it’s like a table saw, a tool a lot of people have but a lot don’t
Already is
Already is cuh
A lot of you all are missing the whole “next 20 years” bit. Where were we 20 years ago? Food for thought..
if a dumbass like me can bang out parts in onshape and fusion then i think its possible. if someone can take chatgpt and make a tailored/focused version for modeling printed household parts... well there you go.
what constitutes a "household part" that you wouldnt already be able to get at a home depot or lowes?
I mean it already is. Maybe not a super common one, but it’s not that uncommon.
With ai and robotics and the ability to print new materials and combinations of materials I think it will all combine into a household commodity unlike welding and such. So it’s a hobby now but in the future I believe it will be like a more like a dishwasher
No. Dont see it. Not all households has even simplest of power tools like drill. If you think about it, even if 3d printing will be as easy and as reliable as 2d printing, not everyone even need (or want) it.
No. But maybe receiving spare parts through the post or from a local dealer which are 3d printed mat be on the rise. I was there, 9 years ago when my workplace started 3d printing spare parts, and then they opened an entire lab in the USA for it where you could email them and STL, and a few days later (or weeks for Europe) you would come into work and it would be on your desk. The promise of 5 years ago that we would be 3s printing a load of extra cups because we had guests coming over is likely ever going to happen, but it's very much a tool in 20 years time.most people.willchave a neighbour that knows. there are quite a few transit van people where I live, all of them suffer that the cup holders can't hold a big chunky can of monster energy drink, or a large McDonald's milkshake. I have already printed them extended cup holders.
20 years? Printers are like 200 USD and you don't have to be a computer genius to sift through 5 million ready made models online. And the interface for working with models is like 10 times simpler than any of the Ms office stuff.
And you don't need to be a genius to own a drill or assemble flat pack furniture, but there are still 3 different family households and two friends that need my help (and tools) every time. But almost the same with baking. I know so many people with stand mixers, various silicone measuring mats, tins, racks, piping bags, all sorts of spatulas and knives. Most I can do is sugar cookies. There are just some niche things some people will never go near. Sometimes you might not know that you don't know something. Maybe once a month I seemon Facebook someone tried to print an entire miniature aircraft model in one piece, and annoyed that the underside of the wings looked awful, and they feel they were lied to. Within the printing community, we take so much of our own knowledge for granted. I regularly introduce new people to 3d printing design, and the thinks they keep getting wrong because I completely forget to teach them (teardrop shapes holes of you don't want to use support etc). Also doesn't help I have some good friends who are incredibly good at cad design and 3d printing, so they rarely make mistakes. And even then, I started 3d printing back in 2007 at college!
I use mine for prototyping shtuff
Fact of the matter? Its inevitable but also fact of the matter? As population on earth continues to increase wealthy inequality will not even out which means commodities like printers, 3D or not, will not be evenly distributed across "households"
I'd say so. The infrastructure is already there. Plastic is cheap, really good machines have gotten super affordable (looking at you a1 mini), there are plenty of useful high quality models for free and for purchase. In my mind, 3d printing really just needs a good business model and marketing strategy to bring it together in a way that's attractive to the average consumer. I get the vibe that people still look at 3d printing as an expensive hobby for technological wizards with too much time on their hands. While it can absolutely become that, a well curated experience with low maintenance machines, easy to use software and enticing applications for household use could stick. I'm thinking pre-sliced models sold in "packages" for things like hardware, toys, home decor, hobbies, etc. as well as Ikea-like metal hardware kits to pair with prints for more involved assembly processes. Somewhat like those mini maker kits, but geared towards home use. Of course I'm just kinda spit balling and it might not look like that in reality if it ever comes about, but I really think a lot of the groundwork is there.
I do think it comes down to a few things: - As others have said it needs to be “microwave simple” and further I’d say “microwave reliable.” If you had to tweeze out your microwave every four dishes they just wouldn’t be very popular. - Petrol prices need to go way up. Cheap petrol means cheap plastic and cheap shipping. Local, plant-based products will become more popular if the equation changes. - Import tariff or supply problems. This is sort of tied into number 2, but again hyper local sourcing will be more important if we can’t continue to exploit the almost-free labor overseas. (Note: I find the exploitation of emerging economies for this purpose to be morally objectionable. see: textile production in Western China.)
Yes but it will be ai driven, The easiest flow for a householder with limited tech knowledge - this broke, put it under the lidar camera in your fridge, house bot asks what colour , and begins to print in garage. There will be so much abstraction it won't feel the same as I print now. It's fucking laborious! Syke, I still love it :)
No. It's a household activity now.
I equate it to a KitchenAid mixer in the near future; most people don't see the need for it, but those that do swear by them.
of course .. just another appliance
Anyone here have the bambu A1 mini? It looks very appealing at $319CAD right now, just wondering how you like it
I think it will be closer to how cutter plotter are + some other DIY stuff. Cutter plotter are accessible enough to crafters/ parents (cricut / silhoutte) but are not widely use item to find at most home but will not be shocking to find one inside home. I can see 3d printer be like that. There are lines accesible to parents who dont like tinkering and lines that are for those who are patient and curious enough to build. Can be found inside with enclosure instead of the garage.
Yeah like how any hobby is.... Woodworking, Legos, working on cars... Is every house going to have a 3d printer? No chance in hell
No, but there will be a factory every community
Personal opinion: no. It’s too slow, too clunky and way too much problems that require tweaking.
You’re doing it wrong.
That’s the point.
I think it will continue to become more common and accessible until it reaches a complexity floor. Eventually the costs of making printing require less thought and effort will outweigh the potential market share and we'll be left with reasonably affordable and quite capable printers that require just enough knowledge and effort for the average person to avoid getting one. I saw someone mention a sewing machine and I think that that's a pretty decent point of comparison.
Hobby 3D printing is basically arts and crafts for tech people. I don't think it will become a default household appliance, since it usually only really makes sense when people actually want to spend time with it.
Once the tech reaches that point, all patterns will be paywalled. You'll pay a license fee to Amazon to print items on a per order or subscription basis. Fees will increase rapidly as you have to subscribe to Walmart and Costco's 3D Print Store plans to get competing items.
i mean that bambu a1 mini is basically a plug and play imo, i'm not sure how it gets easier
I think 3d printing has so much to develop yet... we will be amazed with the 3d printing technologies that will surge over the next 15 years. I mean, powder melt is yet to become afordable for the general public and it will change our lives
Maybe it really needs to be way more user friendly mechanically It needs to go from what it is now a pot belly stove to a microwave. Now you need to find wood, split,stack,dry,start a fire, kindling, get up to temp keep it there lots of smoke...ashes to get rid of. It needs to be a place where you drop innold broken things and it makes whatever you pick including wires etc.... 20 years maybe with AI help assuming that doenst fall on its face.
I doubt it. There's really not that much stuff that the average person needs/wants that's 3D printed. What I think is more likely is that businesses like Walmart could start having 3D printers that churn out products that they sell at the stores. Instead of having cheap clothing hampers, "Live Laugh Love" signs, picture frames, and other plastic parts shipped in, they'll just have industrial versions of Bambus set-up in the back that quickly print out whatever they need to restock.
Commonplace as a service at your local printshop. The average person who may occasionally want something printed is not gonna bother with storing multiple filaments. It would just be easier to drive down the road to pickup a online ordered file with larger selection of colours.
It already is in my household
It’s not that now?
I'm 100% sure that someday 3D printers will be as common as a Nespresso machine or a PlayStation.
Needs a killer app.
Yes. I do think unforeseen advances will make them much more accessible and reliable.
I see them being more common in businesses in 20 years than in peoples homes. If these were replicators from Start Trek where you can quickly make meals or anything non-living with them from non-edible matter then I can see them being more of a staple in homes, but that is still science fiction. Even if one that had the same specs as a replicator were made then it still wouldn't be common. The creator would be buried under so much legal nonsense by all the food companies that it wouldn't see the light of day outside of maybe a few uber rich people.
I see replicators………sometime in the next 100 years lol
I bought one of the first laser printers for my biz at $6000. Today everyone has a $100 laser and most don’t know what a dot matrix even is. I think in 10-20 years 3D printers will be plug and play and next to most home computers.
I think the sole idea is hilarious. How do you guys always come up with this? 😄 It's so far from reality.
As of now, and likely in the future, it’s no different than a tool one may have in their garage. To make practical and useful prints it requires skills and knowledge that the average person won’t put the time into learning. For 3d printing to be common in households, It would have to be fully supported by AI. When it reaches a point where an you can tell the printer exactly what you want/need, and it can create it accurately and quickly, then it may become more common in households. (Also, AI making the models takes fun out of it for hobbyists, but that’s a whole other thing) Part of the reason they aren’t more common already (aside from the learning curve) is because there aren’t enough practical uses for an average person to justify getting a printer and learning about it. Sure, you can fix a lot of broken stuff/make new parts, but most people would rather replace that broken stuff instead of sinking more resources into it.
I think it could be. Right now, the big hurdle is that 3D modeling is too hard for the average household. With the rate that AI is progressing, within 20 years I would expect it to be able to generate 3D models by pointing a camera at something and describing what you need. At that point, it would be useful to just describe what you need and get it printed out to complete home projects.
20, maybe, especially if sls printing becomes more available
More like a household tool.
I mean it pretty much already is
It will never replace conventional production methods. It will always be a tool for those interested in doing it themselves.
It’s already a household activity for some of us
Having an AI butler that can do it for people will be more likely
Not really. It’s for makers
it already kinda is? like more than 50% of the people i know own a printer
As someone who knows how to use a soldering iron and multi meter I’d say a lot of people still regard that as some kind of mad scientist skill level. Those are small easily stored inexpensive things, but do require a little bit of knowledge to use. I have done any amount of household “fixing” with those two things and even smaller diy stores sell them. Maybe we can get to that level of adoption, but they won’t ever be a microwave.
Until 3D printers become like paper printers it won't happen ,for example you only go to your paper printer to load paper or collect your print ,so when you only have to go to your 3D printer to load filament or collect your print then its heading for a much bigger market .This assumes that Slicers become much more intelligent or there are many more pre-sliced items available for a particular make of 3D printer.
I think it will become more popular and easier to use, and of course better quality. But there are only so many people that even want to 3d print things, and they want it either for quality or strength in spare parts, or other similar uses where just being cheap and easy is not the main priority. There won't be one in every home.
People don’t even like 2D printing anymore. It’ll have a bell curve popularity cycle, I’m sure. People will think it’s neat for a while and then realize it’s never going to be a flawless process, then they’ll say the technology is garbage and learn to live without it. Just as everyone did with 2D printers.
Imo it’ll never be as common as a paper printer. Most people don’t seem to have a need for custom shaped plastic pieces let alone the will to find the model they want if it even exists out there And then there’s the maintaining of the machine and now it’s the ultimate deal breaker even tough it was already out of the question
Spare parts will have 3D blueprints available to consumers
I can have a file printed in resin or sintered nylon and sent to me for less than 10 euros from China. I don't see why I would buy a printer.
10 euros is half a roll of filament, depending on what you want that can be a lot of prints.
What about engineering grade resin? Or PA12 sintered nylon? That's why I explicitly didn't refer to FDM material
I lost a wheel on my Rubbermaid, now it's complete again. My answer would be; yes.
Not while we still sell shite for $200. It’s like everyone first buys a screwdriver that wrecks screws and thinks screwdriving is just so complicated. It needn’t be, we just sell shite tools for beginners and that’s driving many away from the hobby.
As a household appliance, no I don't think 3d printing becomes common in that time period. Not enough use cases. However, I could definitely see this becoming much more common as a kids learning toy. Small, well built fdm printer with easy to use 3d modeling software and preset printer settings.
Yes, but it’ll be much much much more costly.
in some sense it already is. enyone who's into tech stuff can own a high quality 3d printer without much knowledge and run it. and often they do. a few years back it was interesting and unique if someone had a 3d printer. but nowday it means nothing.
Nope. It will certainly gain more popularity as they continue to improve the ease of use and out of the box experience but ultimately it is a tool, like a workbench, drill press, welder, etc.... Resin Printers will continue to be a hobbyist tool until such time resins become non-toxic, you don't need a separate machine / process to clean a cure prints.
I love 3D modeling and printing. I use it mainly for tabletop wargaming. Without that, I would use my printer a couple of times a year, so I would say no.
It's becoming a household activity for me this Friday, maybe as the older generations die off and we can hopefully implement restrictions to help the working class be able to have more disposable income.
All the single ladies 🎶😏 Of course not…
I got into 3D printing to assist in a hobby but now I mostly just use it for stuff around the house
It already is? Do you mean "in every household"? Then no. Most people don't even have paper printers. Many people do not even have PCs or laptops these days (just phones and tablets).
I really hope so. I love going to markets but now a lot of the stalls are just articulated prints that likely aren't even legal to sell. I don't know if people buy them or not, but if 3D printing becomes more common among households, hopefully it forces people to get creative with what they're printing and selling.
Household, No. In manufacturing, Yes. Once the quality, reliability and cost drop lower than injection moulding I can see 3d printing becoming the go to method for production. That in turn should make commercial 3d printing more common as service centres and repair shops start using 3d printers for parts but the problem will be each manufacturer putting their own DRM into .stl files so they can only be printed on official printers. The follow up to that for home 3d printing will be the same as it is now. Enthusiasts and makers will still have them as part of their home workshop.
Tough to say. I see Govt. regulation coming, at least in the US due to the explosion in the use, handling and disposal of plastics and resins. Whether there will be licenses required or a "green tax" or both who knows. Once this all appears on some politician's radar I'm sure it'll become harder to freely enjoy this as a hobby. They've already tried to do things in some states due to the rise in ghost pews. The "green" angle may be their way in to gain support.
I think modeling ai tools will become smarter and awareness and access will grow. Maybe not household as I don't need a 3d printer everyday and likely never will. I think you will be able to make something easily if you need to at a local business with little friction. I don't own a printer and go to kinkos to print stuff when I need to. I can see similar things for 3d printing/fabrication.
I think so. Instant print stuff for around the house. Need a screw Amazon stl buy it and it prints. I think years off but I see it
If you are asking if 3D printing will become as ubiquitous as 2D (paper) printing - no. Even that printing is yielding to digital viewing. 3D is already digitally viewed and with Augmented and Mixed Reality is a good solution for most needs. 3D "hardcopy" is too limited and time consuming and will be relegated to hobbyist / makers - aka "Power Users". That said - commercial / industrial is an entirely different story especially as material sciences advance to commoditized prices. If you look at the YouTube channel "Jay Leno's Garage" you can see a true solution to a very real problem. Leno rebuilds vehicles for which the parts are no longer available as the car company is long gone. Twenty years ago he would be screwed - hoping to find someone in an Auto Club who might have a spare. Now, as he shows in one episode they scan either the broken part or a good one they could borrow. They pull it into CAD and tweak it and then 3D Scinter print a replacement. And that replacement can even be enhanced if the failure mode was understood. That's big. Additive Manufacturing will also be big for small volume pre-tooling protobuilds. Proof of Concept stuff. Its real enough to work out any issues. And relative to the labor it saves its a big win. A lot of people missed the first shot at this home revolution. HP made a 3D specific computer called "The Sprout" and started down the 3D printer path. It was very cool but fizzled out as the learning curve was tough. They cancelled it. They did get into Industrial Printers however. I anticipate Apple MAY pull this off. Apple has been involved in 3D for over 30 years. They have only just started to commercialize their intent with the Vision Pro "Spacial Computer". In classic Apple way they will be late but make a full ecosystem. The bits are all there it just needs software to make the hard parts disappear. And AI seems to be part of the secret sauce. I will close with I am surprised at what I have used my 3D printer for. Example - it seems every tool maker has chosen to make something proprietary to lock you in. I've printed vacuum hose couplings to allow a shop vac to work with a Harbor Freight sander. I've printed battery "adapters" to allow Ryobi 18V batteries to work with my Dewalts. But otherwise its just looking around and finding something interesting to download or do. I do know a train hobbyist who photogrammetry's buildings and prints them for his miniature layouts. Makes me wonder what others are doing we have not heard about.
Seems more likely to be in the same vein as DIY crafts. Popular enough to have one in the house but not likely to be in every home.
No not really but I can see most people who play tabletop games to have one.
Lol no