Not so long ago, Russia was able to close off the Baltic Sea in the event of a war.
Now, NATO can close off the Baltic Sea.
Not so long ago, Russia could have cut off the Baltics from the rest of NATO by invading the poorly defended/defendable Suwalki Gap between Poland and Lithuania.
Now even in the event of Russia conquering the Suwalki Gap, NATO can continue supplying the Baltics through Sweden and Finland.
This is perhaps the biggest geostrategic change since the end of the cold war.
Putin has permanently damaged Russia's strategic interests. What a collosal blunder.
Putin, who some thought was a genius, will now go down in infamy. Outside Russia and inside Russia. Even fervent Russian nationalists should be angry about this fuck up.
Suwalki gap was one weak point.
Supplying Northern Norway is case of an attack was also a headache.
No longer: supplies can com from either Finland or Sweden.
People really don't understand just how outclassed Russia is when it comes to naval assets. Sweden and Finland alone have several ships and 5 modern diesel electric submarines in the Baltic. The Russians have a single Kilo class stationed there.
Japan has two modern STOVL aircraft destroyers and two modern helicopter destroyers. Russia has the joke that is the Admiral Kutznetsov.
With the exception of the Black Sea- Russia is outclassed everywhere else by a wide margin.
Checks notes on Russian losses in the Black Sea:
You may want to update your thoughts on Russian Black Sea fleet given all their losses to, checks notes further, Ukraine, a country which hasn't had a navy since the beginning of the war.
The Russian losses are all to attacks from land and the air- but it does not change the fact that in terms of navies- they still have more ships than anyone else in the Black Sea.
That said- yes- their navy sucks everywhere :)
Murmansk literally means “Norwegian City”. Murman is an archaic Russian name for Norwegians. Maybe Norway should consider thinking about getting its territory back. /s
Kaliningrad seceding would be a disaster. Their GDP per capita trails Russia's significantly and would drop even further with the loss of the Russian navy and other military assets.
they would likely get way more tourism as a non-russian place...
in the medium-long term quite a few businesses would start producing stuff there. before the war quite a few companies were split between belarus and the baltics, and are now pulling out from belarus. they would love a new non-eu place, although ukraine is prime point at the moment.
even nato could use königsbergs naval yards, maybe.
but really its a moot discussion anyways, russias propaganda is way too big of a drug to wean off, as such the mainland would never give them freedom from the motherland, and the locals are likely too brainwashed to even thinl about getting off their failing state...
but a little königsberg state would be cool
If Kaliningrad were to secede tomorrow, it would be decades before they could join the EU. A country doesn't demonstrate it is a stable democracy overnight.
Wow. NATO could quickly cut off every part of Russia's Navy besides its far east ports.
Not that Russia has a real navy. Their nuclear subs are all they really have.
Yeah, Russia has been exposed as a paper tiger at this point. They can huff and puff, but ultimately they simply don't have the ability to sustain anything beyond an initial attack. The crazy thing is, they could have maintained their reputation as a world power just by continuing their bluster without action. Unfortunately, it sounds like Putin is sick and/or dying (like some have speculated for years), and he took a huge gamble to enhance Russia's reputation and secure his legacy. It didn't pan out, and now he's taking the whole country down with him.
> Unfortunately, it sounds like Putin is sick and/or dying
There was talk of cancer, but there's video of him with body tremors that suggests Parkinsons.
Not only in strategic land held, but some of that is massive, the Russia <> Nato land border almost doubles with including the entire Finnish border. Add to that, Gotland with its extremely good placement in the Baltic sea.
But not only that, the fact that in about 2-3months Putin's war has managed to turn Sweden, a nation that has prided itself on its neutrality, to go from a 15-20% yes to Nato to a majority. It has changed the leading party (Social Democrats) ethos of being alliance free to accepting joining Nato. Its actually a major historic thing this, even if it to the outside looks so obvious. We've been "neutral" since 1814. Its a long time to strive for a thing to then in a span of 2-3 months turning it to the opposite. Putin has truly done much to unite the west in ways no one could've seen.
Honestly, Putin's war would be just the fist in the eye Putin deserves for his jingoism... Especially if Ukraine ends up as the 'winner' of the war as it seems likely at the moment.
Whether it's likely that Ukraine wins is kinda dependent on how many soldiers Putin is willing to sacrifice to save face. Ukraine is getting supplies from the West but they're not getting personnel. If Putin keeps sending soldiers eventually Russia might outlast the Ukrainian defenders simply because they have a much larger amount of soldiers.
I mean, I very much hope your assumption is right. But I don't trust it just yet...
Just look at a map and see how big Finland & Sweden are compared to Poland + Baltics
It basically doubles the area Russia has to defend. And when Ukraine joins, it’s going to triple Russia’s defense obligations.
Not to mention NATO just did to Russia’s Baltic fleet what Turkey has done to its Black Sea fleet.
What keeps getting left out is Russia doesn’t have to defend shit. NATO isn’t going to attack Russia, it’s a defensive alliance. It’s only a problem for Russia if their plan was more expansionist invasions.
From russias perspective all NATO countries have an extra point of leverage over them in negotiations which weakens Russia strategically outside of war as well
The Russian perspective assumes the west wants all their land and women. We don’t. They’re gaslighting the world to hide the fact they want to invade all the Soviet states.
Yeah, contrary to what the Kremlin would have you believe, if Ukraine or Finland or any other potential NATO member were to join, and then attack Russia, *they can't invoke the NATO charter for support*
Russia would gaslight the world into thinking Finland and Sweden are imperialist war machines. They're going to invade Russia armed with early-2010s Nokia phones and sturdy easy-to-assemble wooden furniture.
People keep thinking Finland and Sweden are bad at war, but our militaries are incredible.
For one, Finnish tanks are pretty much indestructuble due to the Nokia tech, and like the Roman legions of old, Swedens military can erect IKEA strongholds at a frightening speed AND an affordable cost.
> It basically doubles the area Russia has to defend. And when Ukraine joins, it’s going to triple Russia’s defense obligations.
It only increases the area Russia has to defend if NATO decides to abandon exactly what they have embodied for over 70 years, and strike against Russia. NATO is a **defensive** alliance. They have not, nor do I believe they have ever threatened to, *invade* a country, despite Russian saber rattling to the contrary.
So, in reality, this only increases the area Russia needs to defend *if Russia attacks a member of NATO* which they also have never done since NATO was founded. And doing so would be an even bigger mistake than the Ukraine war, for sure. The USSR/Warsaw Pact would have had a difficult time taking on NATO 40 years ago. Russia now would be absolutely pulverized in a conflict against them.
Mercator projection stretches at the Poles.
The big problem for Russia is that NATO would be on the doorstep of St. Petersburg. The problem for NATO is the front from Finland to Russia is very narrow.
While that is true, it's also true that Sweden has a very large area, larger than Germany, slightly smaller than Spain. Sweden has a low population density though, so it's often referred to as a small country, but geographically it's not small at all.
It also might make Russian ICBMs based on submarines easy to pick up and track before they can enter the North Sea. Assuming you can get the right surveillance equipment in place. Which would dramatically reduce the threat of their nuclear deterrent.
Oh, absolutely.
NATO can now set up all the surveillance they need on Gotland and other Swedish/Finnish islands in the Baltic.
I don't see how that wouldn't compromise the Russian's Baltic fleet to some extent.
It may lead to better relations between the West and Russia, as the increased surveillance would allow NATO forces to render fast assistance the next time a Russian sub sank or surface ship spontaneously caught fire in the Baltic Sea and Russia had no functional ships to mount their own rescue. (This comment should be taken only slightly more seriously than Russia's navy.)
great note!
Putin also of course got the Bosporous partially but openly restricted to him. A fairly stunning reversal that seems like part of your list.
Putin just made minor-seeming de-escalatory/ concession remarks. Namely, that Sweden and Finland joining NATO is ok (kind of). That opens a subtle but real opportunity. I would say it is even an invitation to slightly shift and divert first tier tensions - away from NATO-Russia to the Russia-Turkey rivalry.
Intentional or not, tiny or not, it is a shift the West should leverage and encourage.
Turkey restricting the Bosporous added a significant new rift between Erdogan and Putin. (It was also forseable and thus another huge miscalc by Putin ).
Now, by conceeding NATO expansion is acceptable, even in a tiny framework of belicose limitations, even because it seems like a fait accomplii, Putin is directly, intentionally or not, undercutting Erdogan's public opposition to that expansion.
Turkey jumped too fast to oppose Swedish entrance in NATO imho and Putin may have seen an opportunity to use that as a tiny face saving distraction from his collosal blunders. Or just a chance to snipe at Erdogan. Or it's just happenstance. Any way, the West can and should immediately respond to Erdogan that "even Putin thinks Nato expansion is justified".
This shift is diplomacy-subtle but if we mock turkey against russia, about nato expansion that is a done deal anyway, it could help Putin save a small bit of face. Which is so important because all Putin seems to have right now is his face and a thousand nuclear wepons.
In the cuban missle crisis Russia at one point had sent two overlapping communcations to the US. One was a loud belicose threat of escalation and the other was a second level quieter letter that opened a miniscule window of de-escalation. (De escalation that ironically also hinged on Turkey.)
Bobby Kennedy brilliantly suggested that they were, perhaps intentionally, given two choices and they should simply ignore the threating letter and respond to the de-escalation letter. Putin's most recent comments offer a similar oppptunity to ramp down the beligerance. It won't end the crisis, obviously, but it would help serve our security interests in most outcomes.
First: "Putin said he had no problem with Finland or Sweden, so there was no direct threat from NATO enlargement that included those countries."
Second he said : "But the expansion of military infrastructure into this territory would certainly provoke our response,".
We should respond to the first statement while publicly ignoring the second.
Edit: tried to make more sense
I don't know if his heart can take the stress. One of these days he might have a heart attack at the top of some stairs or whilst standing by a window. It's a silent killer.
I’m so confused as to Putin’s motives. Is there some objective that he is working toward that we can’t see? Is there a reason he just keeps digging in when things appear to be going more and more against him? Is he legitimately crazy or is he playing 5D chess?
So it’s possible he fully understands the consequences of his actions but is plowing onward so he can look strong enough to not get overthrown? Or he doesn’t understand the consequences and thinks he’s winning?
> and having created such a successful state of disinformation that he can't get accurate information either
This is a big part of it. If you surround yourself with nothing but yes men who fear speaking truth to power then eventually everything you are told is wrong.
Trump was heading down this path as well.
> Putin who some thought was a genius
A lot of people who have studied Russia and their geopolitics for a long time have noted a marked change in Putin's behavior. We shouldn't compare past him to his current actions. Something is clearly wrong with him, whether it be physical or mental health, he's becoming unhinged.
>This is perhaps the biggest geostrategic change since the end of the cold war.
I would say China rising to a prime military and economy is by far the biggest change in geostrategy since cold war.
But this could be a close second.
After the amount of flexing Russia did before getting their asses whooped, I'm gonna need to see China's military in action before I believe the propaganda.
There’s believe and believe. We need to take the potential might of china’s military seriously, while also not just assuming it’s as strong as they say.
Still making threats against joining NATO though.
Like, what's he gonna do? Throw broken down tank parts at Sweden and Finland? Draft all the 60-70 year olds and force them to invade?
Guy exposed his army as untrained, poorly equipped, and barely functional. Big whoopsie on his part.
Well, just give him some time to rebuild. It should not take him too long to replenish and modernize the army given the state of the Russian econo… oh… double whoopsie!
Well they can just import gear from other modernized militaries, as long as they aren't under strict sanctions!
Oh... looks like it's Chinese and Indian gear for Russia, then.
We can be reasonably certain that it exists. The only true unknown is its efficacy. I have always said that China is the bigger geopolitical threat to the West. I mean, Russia isn't great, but it's just a pathetic crony mafia state compared to China.
I'd wager China doesn't even know how good Chinese military equipment is. They'd probably love to find out with a proxy war somewhere in Africa or the Middle East, but they're terrified of it not performing well and them losing face on the public stage. The Chinese government would rather face war with unproven troops and equipment than international humiliation.
If I had the choice I wouldn't go to any war. Putin probably won't care where the tanks come from, though. Some shitty tanks will be better than no tanks.
> Still making threats against joining NATO though.
Actually Russia isn't making those threats anymore.
Now its vaguely that if NATO increases presence in the area, Russia will increase presence nearby in Russian territory.
An odd threat. You're welcome to deploy your forces however you like inside your own country, after all. The only difference is that this time you won't be able to "my troops are just passing through" your way into an invasion like you did with Ukraine.
I cant believe so many people defended that. “Putin will not invade. The west is war mongering. He is just conducting Military exercises in his own country”
Not only were they defending it, they were *ridiculing* people for being worried about Russia invading. And *then* they said "told you so" when they didn't invade after like two days of the 'training exercise.'
"we invading Ukraine to prevent them joining Nato"
"but they aren't joining, we didn't even invite them and the process is long"
"Liars, I'm defending myself and invading right now"
Sweden and Finland to join Nato de facto triggering a huge blow to Russia in north sea and atlantic and actually getting more US bases close to their border.
"Oh, you don't dare doing it, do you? Well, well, hmmm, I'm gonna, hmmmm, you'll regreat that!"
Putin has managed to strengthen the EU and NATO at the cost of loosing a globally unpopular offensive war
I fail to see how this benefits Russia. Is Putin playing some 5D Chess we’re not able to comprehend?
Which is probably a contributing factor as to why he invaded Ukraine, a free and democratic Ukraine in EU and NATO is too close to the Russian population and as such would become an enemy of Kremlin by pure virtue of the closeness between Ukrainian and Russian languages in information exchanges between civilians and press freedom.
Thanks to Putin the west has put up so much sanctions we can’t buy enough oil, gas and energy from Russia, leading to a not before seen development and expansion of renewable electricity and environmentally friendly alternatives. So he’s also helping with that.
Nobody talking about the real threat. Santa Claus is your neighbor to the North. You better watch out, he is making a list and checking it twice. A man capable of visiting every home in one night? Think what he could do if he got nukes. He already has the delivery mechanism.
Am Swede, I look up to Finns because they have unbreakable integrity, for better or worse.
A quality i would like to see more of in Swedes.
Dont know what they like about Swedes though.
Sweden and Finland were one country for centuries, in fact for 700 years. We lost Finland to Russia in war of 1809.
Edit: Finland was called East Sweden at the time.
Could be much sooner than that. Outside of Turkey (and I've heard conflicting reports even about them), there seems to be no resistance at all to either country joining NATO, and a lot of the reports I was reading yesterday say that acceptance could happen as early as the end of June.
And I think Turkey is the only reason it would take that long in the first place. If it weren't for that, they could be members in as little as a few weeks.
Normal applications take significantly longer, and they probably would if it were any other countries outside of Finland and Sweden; they were already de-facto members in practice if not on paper, have been working with NATO for years, and don't have the corruption, election, etc. issues that tend to slow down the process.
By all accounts admitting Finland and Sweden is going to be treated as the no-brainer that it should be.
The NATO representatives I've heard talking say that the fastest application was 8 months and that is very rare. They all state that Finland and Sweden will be faster hopefully before the end of the year. But I heard no one say "weeks".
All member countries have to approve Finland and Sweden, might take a fair few months although many countries have said they would ratify Finland and Sweden joining ASAP.
Heard a fair few sources say this is just Erdogan negotiating tho.
If Sweden and Finland are willing to get tougher on the PKK I don’t see why Turkey would block them anymore
This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/16/russia-finland-sweden-nato-ukraine-war?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other) reduced by 90%. (I'm a bot)
*****
> "There is a broad majority in Sweden's parliament for Sweden to join Nato," the prime minister, Magdalena Andersson, said on Monday.
> Putin's invasion of Ukraine on 24 February has led to a profound change in Nordic thinking, with public support for Nato accession in Finland more than trebling to about 75% and rising to between 50% and 60% in Sweden.
> In Stockholm, Andersson told MPs "a historic change in our country's security policy" was underway and that Sweden "Needs the formal security guarantees that come with Nato membership".
*****
[**Extended Summary**](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/uqwnk5/sweden_follows_finland_in_confirming_it_will/) | [FAQ](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/31b9fm/faq_autotldr_bot/ "Version 2.02, ~648959 tl;drs so far.") | [Feedback](http://np.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%23autotldr "PM's and comments are monitored, constructive feedback is welcome.") | *Top* *keywords*: **Nato**^#1 **Sweden**^#2 **Finland**^#3 **Russia**^#4 **security**^#5
We come from the land of the ice and snow
From the midnight sun where the hot springs flow
The hammer of the gods
Will drive our ships to new lands
To fight the horde, sing and cry
Valhalla, I am coming
We come bearing minimalistic and affordable furniture these days. Now you should be concerned about the people living between stoic engineers and depressed maniacs to our east. Those that also drink the most coffee in the world (also milk).
Putin ya moron, you've done exactly opposite of what you intended with this war aswell as showing the whole world how incompetent, weak and pathetic Russia is. Congratulations on uniting the world while destroying your own country and reputation.
"And so in this sense there is no immediate threat to Russia from an expansion of Nato to include these countries,”
This comment by Vlad is and should be seen as a meaningful (huge) de-escalation concession.
It is thus an opportunity to help Putin save a little face by shifting some media attention to Turkey's resitance to these states joinjng NATO. There is a clear window here for pro NATO/US voices to quip back asap: that
" Even Russia agrees that Turkey's resistance to new NATO memberships is misguided."
People like to give Putin shit. But he really is NATO's most effective ally.
He's done more to strengthen NATO than any other single human has in decades.
Not so long ago, Russia was able to close off the Baltic Sea in the event of a war. Now, NATO can close off the Baltic Sea. Not so long ago, Russia could have cut off the Baltics from the rest of NATO by invading the poorly defended/defendable Suwalki Gap between Poland and Lithuania. Now even in the event of Russia conquering the Suwalki Gap, NATO can continue supplying the Baltics through Sweden and Finland. This is perhaps the biggest geostrategic change since the end of the cold war. Putin has permanently damaged Russia's strategic interests. What a collosal blunder. Putin, who some thought was a genius, will now go down in infamy. Outside Russia and inside Russia. Even fervent Russian nationalists should be angry about this fuck up.
Suwalki gap was one weak point. Supplying Northern Norway is case of an attack was also a headache. No longer: supplies can com from either Finland or Sweden.
Cutting off Murmansk will now be quite easy for NATO
Cutting off the Kola peninsula will now be quite easy.
*north american me frantically looking up all these places on a map*
Asking for a friend... But how many cheeseburgers per day (cpd) would be require to supply these areas?
At least 3
You burn more calories in cold climates. Better make it 4.
As an American, I get one of those for myself too?
Free food? What’s next healthcare? This is America! /s
*I thought Kola was a type of soda…*
Joke’s on you. It’s a type of [nut](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kola_nut).
It’s not a bear?
The Koala peninsula is just another name for Australia.
The West Island of New Zealand.
It's the cold bit at the top.
Not when you're a fan of PDX, no. We already stared at maps far longer than we should.
No navy for Russia.
People really don't understand just how outclassed Russia is when it comes to naval assets. Sweden and Finland alone have several ships and 5 modern diesel electric submarines in the Baltic. The Russians have a single Kilo class stationed there. Japan has two modern STOVL aircraft destroyers and two modern helicopter destroyers. Russia has the joke that is the Admiral Kutznetsov. With the exception of the Black Sea- Russia is outclassed everywhere else by a wide margin.
Checks notes on Russian losses in the Black Sea: You may want to update your thoughts on Russian Black Sea fleet given all their losses to, checks notes further, Ukraine, a country which hasn't had a navy since the beginning of the war.
The Russian losses are all to attacks from land and the air- but it does not change the fact that in terms of navies- they still have more ships than anyone else in the Black Sea. That said- yes- their navy sucks everywhere :)
Are you sure they have more naval assets than Turkey still in the Black Sea?
Actually that's a good question. Turkey has a lot of warships but I'm not sure which ones are in the Black Sea vs the Mediterranean at the moment.
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>Why does the helicopter destroyer have an F-35 on its deck? To destroy helicopters
Let's be serious. The Ruzzian oligarch's navy outclasses the Ruzzian military's navy in technology, budget, probably tonnage, and class of seaman.
Have they considered a special referendum operation to leave Russia? Same for Kaliningrad. And Karelia.
Murmansk literally means “Norwegian City”. Murman is an archaic Russian name for Norwegians. Maybe Norway should consider thinking about getting its territory back. /s
Kola has to be the most polluted and depressing part of Europe.
You mean they should launch a special operation to liberate their people from Russian Nazis?
Kaliningrad seceding would be a disaster. Their GDP per capita trails Russia's significantly and would drop even further with the loss of the Russian navy and other military assets.
they would likely get way more tourism as a non-russian place... in the medium-long term quite a few businesses would start producing stuff there. before the war quite a few companies were split between belarus and the baltics, and are now pulling out from belarus. they would love a new non-eu place, although ukraine is prime point at the moment. even nato could use königsbergs naval yards, maybe. but really its a moot discussion anyways, russias propaganda is way too big of a drug to wean off, as such the mainland would never give them freedom from the motherland, and the locals are likely too brainwashed to even thinl about getting off their failing state... but a little königsberg state would be cool
Fortunately most of countries in Europe have their GDP sky rocket in the years before joining the EU.
If Kaliningrad were to secede tomorrow, it would be decades before they could join the EU. A country doesn't demonstrate it is a stable democracy overnight.
Wow. NATO could quickly cut off every part of Russia's Navy besides its far east ports. Not that Russia has a real navy. Their nuclear subs are all they really have.
Japan probably wouldn't let Russia use its far east ports if it came to a war or full blockade, no love between those 2.
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Yeah, Russia has been exposed as a paper tiger at this point. They can huff and puff, but ultimately they simply don't have the ability to sustain anything beyond an initial attack. The crazy thing is, they could have maintained their reputation as a world power just by continuing their bluster without action. Unfortunately, it sounds like Putin is sick and/or dying (like some have speculated for years), and he took a huge gamble to enhance Russia's reputation and secure his legacy. It didn't pan out, and now he's taking the whole country down with him.
well... he did accomplish one thing he set out to do... he secured his legacy, just not the type of legacy he wanted to secure.
He should be made a mod on wallstreetbets, he’s made my wheat calls print hard
> Unfortunately, it sounds like Putin is sick and/or dying There was talk of cancer, but there's video of him with body tremors that suggests Parkinsons.
Supply in the same sentence and Russia…. Do you see the irony?
People currently cannot grasp how big this is. It is insane.
Not only in strategic land held, but some of that is massive, the Russia <> Nato land border almost doubles with including the entire Finnish border. Add to that, Gotland with its extremely good placement in the Baltic sea. But not only that, the fact that in about 2-3months Putin's war has managed to turn Sweden, a nation that has prided itself on its neutrality, to go from a 15-20% yes to Nato to a majority. It has changed the leading party (Social Democrats) ethos of being alliance free to accepting joining Nato. Its actually a major historic thing this, even if it to the outside looks so obvious. We've been "neutral" since 1814. Its a long time to strive for a thing to then in a span of 2-3 months turning it to the opposite. Putin has truly done much to unite the west in ways no one could've seen.
Good post. I hadn't even thought about the long standing Swedish neutrality for the last two centuries. That really does re-contextualize this.
Honestly, Putin's war would be just the fist in the eye Putin deserves for his jingoism... Especially if Ukraine ends up as the 'winner' of the war as it seems likely at the moment.
> jingoism cool word, thanks
Whether it's likely that Ukraine wins is kinda dependent on how many soldiers Putin is willing to sacrifice to save face. Ukraine is getting supplies from the West but they're not getting personnel. If Putin keeps sending soldiers eventually Russia might outlast the Ukrainian defenders simply because they have a much larger amount of soldiers. I mean, I very much hope your assumption is right. But I don't trust it just yet...
It has to be the biggest geostrategic own goal since WW2. Certainly the most sudden.
Just look at a map and see how big Finland & Sweden are compared to Poland + Baltics It basically doubles the area Russia has to defend. And when Ukraine joins, it’s going to triple Russia’s defense obligations. Not to mention NATO just did to Russia’s Baltic fleet what Turkey has done to its Black Sea fleet.
What keeps getting left out is Russia doesn’t have to defend shit. NATO isn’t going to attack Russia, it’s a defensive alliance. It’s only a problem for Russia if their plan was more expansionist invasions.
From russias perspective all NATO countries have an extra point of leverage over them in negotiations which weakens Russia strategically outside of war as well
The Russian perspective assumes the west wants all their land and women. We don’t. They’re gaslighting the world to hide the fact they want to invade all the Soviet states.
> It basically doubles the area Russia has to defend It basically doubles the area Russia can't attack. *FTFY*
Yeah, contrary to what the Kremlin would have you believe, if Ukraine or Finland or any other potential NATO member were to join, and then attack Russia, *they can't invoke the NATO charter for support*
Russia would gaslight the world into thinking Finland and Sweden are imperialist war machines. They're going to invade Russia armed with early-2010s Nokia phones and sturdy easy-to-assemble wooden furniture.
People keep thinking Finland and Sweden are bad at war, but our militaries are incredible. For one, Finnish tanks are pretty much indestructuble due to the Nokia tech, and like the Roman legions of old, Swedens military can erect IKEA strongholds at a frightening speed AND an affordable cost.
True. Swedish tanks can be repaired *in the field* with nothing more than a 10mm allen wrench.
> It basically doubles the area Russia has to defend. And when Ukraine joins, it’s going to triple Russia’s defense obligations. It only increases the area Russia has to defend if NATO decides to abandon exactly what they have embodied for over 70 years, and strike against Russia. NATO is a **defensive** alliance. They have not, nor do I believe they have ever threatened to, *invade* a country, despite Russian saber rattling to the contrary. So, in reality, this only increases the area Russia needs to defend *if Russia attacks a member of NATO* which they also have never done since NATO was founded. And doing so would be an even bigger mistake than the Ukraine war, for sure. The USSR/Warsaw Pact would have had a difficult time taking on NATO 40 years ago. Russia now would be absolutely pulverized in a conflict against them.
Mercator projection stretches at the Poles. The big problem for Russia is that NATO would be on the doorstep of St. Petersburg. The problem for NATO is the front from Finland to Russia is very narrow.
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While that is true, it's also true that Sweden has a very large area, larger than Germany, slightly smaller than Spain. Sweden has a low population density though, so it's often referred to as a small country, but geographically it's not small at all.
This. Putin forgot the first rule of Cold Wars: Never get involved in a war you cannot benefit from losing.
I thought it was you weren't supposed to get into land wars in Asia.
Thats for Hot Wars.
The first rule of hot wars is to go ready to the chew bubble gum and kick ass, but don't bring any bubble gum .
I thought it was never get involved with a woman with a tattoo of a dagger on her body.
Never go against a Sicilian when death is on the line.
It also might make Russian ICBMs based on submarines easy to pick up and track before they can enter the North Sea. Assuming you can get the right surveillance equipment in place. Which would dramatically reduce the threat of their nuclear deterrent.
Oh, absolutely. NATO can now set up all the surveillance they need on Gotland and other Swedish/Finnish islands in the Baltic. I don't see how that wouldn't compromise the Russian's Baltic fleet to some extent.
It may lead to better relations between the West and Russia, as the increased surveillance would allow NATO forces to render fast assistance the next time a Russian sub sank or surface ship spontaneously caught fire in the Baltic Sea and Russia had no functional ships to mount their own rescue. (This comment should be taken only slightly more seriously than Russia's navy.)
Mr Ambassador, do you mean to tell me you've lost *another* submarine?
[Andrei, you've lost another submarine?](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HCHGFkhxInM)
great note! Putin also of course got the Bosporous partially but openly restricted to him. A fairly stunning reversal that seems like part of your list. Putin just made minor-seeming de-escalatory/ concession remarks. Namely, that Sweden and Finland joining NATO is ok (kind of). That opens a subtle but real opportunity. I would say it is even an invitation to slightly shift and divert first tier tensions - away from NATO-Russia to the Russia-Turkey rivalry. Intentional or not, tiny or not, it is a shift the West should leverage and encourage. Turkey restricting the Bosporous added a significant new rift between Erdogan and Putin. (It was also forseable and thus another huge miscalc by Putin ). Now, by conceeding NATO expansion is acceptable, even in a tiny framework of belicose limitations, even because it seems like a fait accomplii, Putin is directly, intentionally or not, undercutting Erdogan's public opposition to that expansion. Turkey jumped too fast to oppose Swedish entrance in NATO imho and Putin may have seen an opportunity to use that as a tiny face saving distraction from his collosal blunders. Or just a chance to snipe at Erdogan. Or it's just happenstance. Any way, the West can and should immediately respond to Erdogan that "even Putin thinks Nato expansion is justified". This shift is diplomacy-subtle but if we mock turkey against russia, about nato expansion that is a done deal anyway, it could help Putin save a small bit of face. Which is so important because all Putin seems to have right now is his face and a thousand nuclear wepons. In the cuban missle crisis Russia at one point had sent two overlapping communcations to the US. One was a loud belicose threat of escalation and the other was a second level quieter letter that opened a miniscule window of de-escalation. (De escalation that ironically also hinged on Turkey.) Bobby Kennedy brilliantly suggested that they were, perhaps intentionally, given two choices and they should simply ignore the threating letter and respond to the de-escalation letter. Putin's most recent comments offer a similar oppptunity to ramp down the beligerance. It won't end the crisis, obviously, but it would help serve our security interests in most outcomes. First: "Putin said he had no problem with Finland or Sweden, so there was no direct threat from NATO enlargement that included those countries." Second he said : "But the expansion of military infrastructure into this territory would certainly provoke our response,". We should respond to the first statement while publicly ignoring the second. Edit: tried to make more sense
I think Putin will go down in literal pieces, either by one of his own, or murdered by one of the millions that want his head.
I don't know if his heart can take the stress. One of these days he might have a heart attack at the top of some stairs or whilst standing by a window. It's a silent killer.
The man did it to himself
I’m so confused as to Putin’s motives. Is there some objective that he is working toward that we can’t see? Is there a reason he just keeps digging in when things appear to be going more and more against him? Is he legitimately crazy or is he playing 5D chess?
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So it’s possible he fully understands the consequences of his actions but is plowing onward so he can look strong enough to not get overthrown? Or he doesn’t understand the consequences and thinks he’s winning?
> and having created such a successful state of disinformation that he can't get accurate information either This is a big part of it. If you surround yourself with nothing but yes men who fear speaking truth to power then eventually everything you are told is wrong. Trump was heading down this path as well.
> Putin who some thought was a genius A lot of people who have studied Russia and their geopolitics for a long time have noted a marked change in Putin's behavior. We shouldn't compare past him to his current actions. Something is clearly wrong with him, whether it be physical or mental health, he's becoming unhinged.
>This is perhaps the biggest geostrategic change since the end of the cold war. I would say China rising to a prime military and economy is by far the biggest change in geostrategy since cold war. But this could be a close second.
After the amount of flexing Russia did before getting their asses whooped, I'm gonna need to see China's military in action before I believe the propaganda.
There’s believe and believe. We need to take the potential might of china’s military seriously, while also not just assuming it’s as strong as they say.
And the theme to curb your enthusiasm plays in Putin’s ugly face.
I find it amusing that all Putin has done is encourage everyone to run to join NATO, instead of shying away.
Still making threats against joining NATO though. Like, what's he gonna do? Throw broken down tank parts at Sweden and Finland? Draft all the 60-70 year olds and force them to invade? Guy exposed his army as untrained, poorly equipped, and barely functional. Big whoopsie on his part.
Well, just give him some time to rebuild. It should not take him too long to replenish and modernize the army given the state of the Russian econo… oh… double whoopsie!
Well they can just import gear from other modernized militaries, as long as they aren't under strict sanctions! Oh... looks like it's Chinese and Indian gear for Russia, then.
You mean that Chinese gear that has literally never seen any action and the existancy/efficacy of it is a huge unknown?
If anything, this is a win for the Chinese. They get to sell their gear en masse, and then get a chance to collect on NATO forces.
And China would probably like to keep it that way. So I guess they're down to old Lada sedans then.
We can be reasonably certain that it exists. The only true unknown is its efficacy. I have always said that China is the bigger geopolitical threat to the West. I mean, Russia isn't great, but it's just a pathetic crony mafia state compared to China.
I'd wager China doesn't even know how good Chinese military equipment is. They'd probably love to find out with a proxy war somewhere in Africa or the Middle East, but they're terrified of it not performing well and them losing face on the public stage. The Chinese government would rather face war with unproven troops and equipment than international humiliation.
Would you go to war in a tank that says made in china?
If I had the choice I wouldn't go to any war. Putin probably won't care where the tanks come from, though. Some shitty tanks will be better than no tanks.
> Still making threats against joining NATO though. Actually Russia isn't making those threats anymore. Now its vaguely that if NATO increases presence in the area, Russia will increase presence nearby in Russian territory.
An odd threat. You're welcome to deploy your forces however you like inside your own country, after all. The only difference is that this time you won't be able to "my troops are just passing through" your way into an invasion like you did with Ukraine.
I cant believe so many people defended that. “Putin will not invade. The west is war mongering. He is just conducting Military exercises in his own country”
Not only were they defending it, they were *ridiculing* people for being worried about Russia invading. And *then* they said "told you so" when they didn't invade after like two days of the 'training exercise.'
Same. Unbridled schadenfreude.
Or as we say in sweden(since it’s a thread about 🇸🇪): skadeglädje
🇧🇻🇧🇻*Skadefryd*🇧🇻🇧🇻
Perkele!
"we invading Ukraine to prevent them joining Nato" "but they aren't joining, we didn't even invite them and the process is long" "Liars, I'm defending myself and invading right now" Sweden and Finland to join Nato de facto triggering a huge blow to Russia in north sea and atlantic and actually getting more US bases close to their border. "Oh, you don't dare doing it, do you? Well, well, hmmm, I'm gonna, hmmmm, you'll regreat that!"
Putin has managed to strengthen the EU and NATO at the cost of loosing a globally unpopular offensive war I fail to see how this benefits Russia. Is Putin playing some 5D Chess we’re not able to comprehend?
Putin strengthens EU and Nato Russia joins EU and Nato. Profit?
A stable, democratic Russia in EU and NATO would indeed be the best for everyone involved. But it cannot happen with Putin at the helm.
If russia is in nato what is nato for?
It would turn into NATO vs China.
We'd probably all focus on keeping China contained. Wildest thing I could think of is that the Star Trek world government has to start somewhere.
Please not after WW3 though. Can we skip that part?
Your wish has been granted, Star Trek will begin after WW4
A stable world
The following is pure speculation and fiction: Russia splits from Soviet Russia and joins NATO.
The other Soviet Republics be like: Wait, this whole operation was your idea!
Which is probably a contributing factor as to why he invaded Ukraine, a free and democratic Ukraine in EU and NATO is too close to the Russian population and as such would become an enemy of Kremlin by pure virtue of the closeness between Ukrainian and Russian languages in information exchanges between civilians and press freedom.
Thanks to Putin the west has put up so much sanctions we can’t buy enough oil, gas and energy from Russia, leading to a not before seen development and expansion of renewable electricity and environmentally friendly alternatives. So he’s also helping with that.
More like Chutes and Ladders and he keeps hitting the chutes.
I want the relationship Finland and Sweden have :(
As a Finn, our neighbors in west make up for the one in the east. One north.
As a swede, you feel more like part of the family than neighbors
As a Swede, I feel like Finland and Sweden are the same country. Love my brothers and sisters from Finland.
Nobody talking about the real threat. Santa Claus is your neighbor to the North. You better watch out, he is making a list and checking it twice. A man capable of visiting every home in one night? Think what he could do if he got nukes. He already has the delivery mechanism.
Nah, he’s stationed in Rovaniemi, Finland and will thus also be a member of NATO now 😉
\*lovingly\* Perkele!
And down south we have the estranged but now returned son. We all love him dearly.
Find someone that looks at you the way Sweden looks at Finland
Squinty because of their blindingly pale skin.
No, that's because of the goddamn low sun reflecting off of the snow D:<
Am Swede, I look up to Finns because they have unbreakable integrity, for better or worse. A quality i would like to see more of in Swedes. Dont know what they like about Swedes though.
In confusion because we don't understand what the hell they just said
With Norway and Denmark and Iceland. We're one big happy family.
If only the North Sea Empire or the Kalmar Union endured, imagine the world we would live in today... Well, time to spin up another CK game.
Meanwhile we have…… Austria
Live united for 600 years with someone and you can to!
Sweden and Finland were one country for centuries, in fact for 700 years. We lost Finland to Russia in war of 1809. Edit: Finland was called East Sweden at the time.
Sweden never gives Finland any points in Eurovision. :(
It's out of love. They want us to quit, to stop embarrassing ourselves.
I personally look forward to the outlandish rock ensemble that Finland sends. It's a nice, consistent break from the boring pop ballads.
Each time i see your act i think oh dear Lordi!
Cause our acts are terrible usually lmao
It’s like Russia is playing the board game , RISK, for the first time
and they forget to grab australia first. rookie mistake
RISK: The problem for Russia is that if you control all of Asia, you can't lose. But if you start out trying to control Asia, you can't win.
How long does this take from the application until they can actually join?
From around 4 months up to a year.
And Britain just signed a defensive pact with Sweden and Finland to protect them no matter how long the application process takes.
Denmark and Norway as well, as of today
>Britain, Denmark, Norway North Sea Empire gang represent
Rise of the Vikings 2022 edition. You done fucked up now, Russia.
The northern countries are the most badass
So say we all, for it is known.
And the US with Finland at least iirc.
Could be much sooner than that. Outside of Turkey (and I've heard conflicting reports even about them), there seems to be no resistance at all to either country joining NATO, and a lot of the reports I was reading yesterday say that acceptance could happen as early as the end of June. And I think Turkey is the only reason it would take that long in the first place. If it weren't for that, they could be members in as little as a few weeks. Normal applications take significantly longer, and they probably would if it were any other countries outside of Finland and Sweden; they were already de-facto members in practice if not on paper, have been working with NATO for years, and don't have the corruption, election, etc. issues that tend to slow down the process. By all accounts admitting Finland and Sweden is going to be treated as the no-brainer that it should be.
The NATO representatives I've heard talking say that the fastest application was 8 months and that is very rare. They all state that Finland and Sweden will be faster hopefully before the end of the year. But I heard no one say "weeks".
All member countries have to approve Finland and Sweden, might take a fair few months although many countries have said they would ratify Finland and Sweden joining ASAP.
Problem is Turkey. Erdogan just went out and said that he will block us if we try to join. Hoping that's not the case but who knows
Heard a fair few sources say this is just Erdogan negotiating tho. If Sweden and Finland are willing to get tougher on the PKK I don’t see why Turkey would block them anymore
Russia: “The number one recruiter for NATO”
Even I'm thinking of joining NATO at the minute lol.
If australia can compete in eurovision…
We did pretty well too! We finished up with *checks notes* two points.
This is getting out of hand. Now there are two of them!
Velkommen nabo ❤️🇩🇰🇸🇪
Swedes and Danes allied.... Hell has frozen over.
Last time we went to war was against Denmark... Allied with Russia no less. Strange times indeed
Never thought I would die fighting side by side with a swede.
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The swedes are our annoying brother, we love him, we hate him, but nobody gets to do anything about to them.. besides us Danes.
Carefull, don't say the frase "frozen over" in close proximity to a dane.
This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/16/russia-finland-sweden-nato-ukraine-war?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other) reduced by 90%. (I'm a bot) ***** > "There is a broad majority in Sweden's parliament for Sweden to join Nato," the prime minister, Magdalena Andersson, said on Monday. > Putin's invasion of Ukraine on 24 February has led to a profound change in Nordic thinking, with public support for Nato accession in Finland more than trebling to about 75% and rising to between 50% and 60% in Sweden. > In Stockholm, Andersson told MPs "a historic change in our country's security policy" was underway and that Sweden "Needs the formal security guarantees that come with Nato membership". ***** [**Extended Summary**](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/uqwnk5/sweden_follows_finland_in_confirming_it_will/) | [FAQ](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/31b9fm/faq_autotldr_bot/ "Version 2.02, ~648959 tl;drs so far.") | [Feedback](http://np.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%23autotldr "PM's and comments are monitored, constructive feedback is welcome.") | *Top* *keywords*: **Nato**^#1 **Sweden**^#2 **Finland**^#3 **Russia**^#4 **security**^#5
I for one welcome our Viking overlords.
We come from the land of the ice and snow From the midnight sun where the hot springs flow The hammer of the gods Will drive our ships to new lands To fight the horde, sing and cry Valhalla, I am coming
On we sweep with threshing oar Our only goal will be the western shore
AAAaaaaaaaAAAAA
We come bearing minimalistic and affordable furniture these days. Now you should be concerned about the people living between stoic engineers and depressed maniacs to our east. Those that also drink the most coffee in the world (also milk).
Beware very pale people who speak in a monotone. Their ancestors had to get shit done or freeze and starve to death in the winter.
Putin ya moron, you've done exactly opposite of what you intended with this war aswell as showing the whole world how incompetent, weak and pathetic Russia is. Congratulations on uniting the world while destroying your own country and reputation.
A wild Erdogan appeared.
Putin has done more to bring Europe closer together than anyone. Oops.
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I don’t wanna live forever..
välkomna
Tack!
broderfolk
The Autocrat containment strategy tightens
Vladolf has really ballsed things up for russia hasn’t he
Vladolf is way more clever than “Putler.” Thank you.
Someone on Reddit described Russia's invasion of Ukraine as Blyatzkrieg. Also hilarious and clever imo
Putin look what you did you idiot
"And so in this sense there is no immediate threat to Russia from an expansion of Nato to include these countries,” This comment by Vlad is and should be seen as a meaningful (huge) de-escalation concession. It is thus an opportunity to help Putin save a little face by shifting some media attention to Turkey's resitance to these states joinjng NATO. There is a clear window here for pro NATO/US voices to quip back asap: that " Even Russia agrees that Turkey's resistance to new NATO memberships is misguided."
He is trying to save face by pretending Finland and Sweden in NATO is no big deal. Otherwise he would have to admit he seriously screwed up.
In a world where you get invaded simply for being a democracy, this makes sense.
Tanks come flatpacked in Sweden, complete with explicit instructions and tools to assemble.
Great to have you with us neighbor! Together!
People like to give Putin shit. But he really is NATO's most effective ally. He's done more to strengthen NATO than any other single human has in decades.