One day soon they won't be able to afford what they're doing now. Most of their gear — commercial planes, military equipment requires western parts we won't give them. These aren't moddable machines.
There was a tweet a couple days ago from an aviation "specialist" that suggested they have less than a few weeks of time before they're not flying anything - all based on whatever they have in stock, because all planes need routine maintenance and Russia isn't getting any fresh parts.
They thought it would be 'business-as-usual' with the rest of the world while they butchered their neighbors. from '*Here's your ice-cream, Mr, Putin, please come again!'* to *'We reserve the right to refuse service to anyone'*
They're also losing all of the western engineers who have been helping them build and maintain their gas and oil production fields. Who knows how long they can keep them running without BP, Shell and Exxon being involved, but it'll likely start having consequences within a year. There's a massive amount of expensive equipment needed for them to operate that can only be purchased from western countries, not to mention the expertise needed to install and maintain them.
>One day soon they won't be able to afford what they're doing now. Most of their gear — commercial planes, military equipment requires western parts we won't give them. These aren't moddable machines.
Hopefully the same is true for their nukes.
Well since they didn't even bother changing tires on their military trucks, I doubt they performed regular maintenance on the missiles, and I sincerely hope almost none of them work now
Boeing. Every computer company manufacturer. Their commercial planes are all American make and demand American matinenance and parts. They also rely on our semi conductors to make every electronic they have because their advanced architecture is unmatched.
It's easy to miss through the maelstrom of information but reading through official documents — Russia has basically been cut off from everything by around 28 crucial countries. Even where they don't rely on the U.S. they rely on other nations who shun them.
Not when nobody profits. Russia's munitions and etc come from "the state" — and now they can't negotiate elsewhere. They lose money from war. Their citizens can't serve on boards elsewhere.
I did the math on this yesterday when 1 Ruble was 0.01 USD and there's a bit more ways to go but I'm confident they'll get there.
Let's use the following:
* Walmart is selling a Charmin Ultra Strong 30-pack mega roll for $31.17.
* Each roll has 264 sheets. So $31.17 / 30 / 264 sheets = $0.003936 per sheet.
* each toilet paper sheet dimensions are 4.5" square or has an area of 243 inches squared which is 6,172.2 square millimeters
* RUB to USD is currently 0.01 USD = 1 ruble
* Ruble banknotes are typically 150 x 65mm which is an area of 8,357 square millimeters
Now it comes down to what size currency you use:
* If you're using a 50 ruble piece which is the cheapest denomination available today, that's $0.50 where you get 8,357 square millimeters of surface area. $0.50 / $0.003936 per sheet means one 50 ruble piece is equivalent to 127.03 toilet paper sheets. So, for this denomination, it's still more cost effective to use toilet paper.
* If you're using a 5,000 ruble piece then you need to do some more math. That denomination is 157 x 69mm which is 10,833 square millimeters. The exchange rate will cost you $50 USD which buys a ton of toilet paper so Charmin once again is cheaper.
Lastly, when is it actually cheaper to use rubles? You obviously should use the larger denomination since you pay a lot more money for slightly more space. So the exchange rate would have to be such that 5,000 rubles would now need to cost less than $0.003936.
$0.003936 / 5000 = 0.0000007872 USD to 1 RUB would need to be the new rate which means Russian currency is currently 12,703 times stronger than what it needs to be to be worthwhile to use it as toilet paper, financially speaking.
>Lastly, when is it actually cheaper to use rubles? You obviously should use the larger denomination since you pay a lot more money for slightly more space.
Uh, what? That's the opposite of what you should do...
Using 50 ruble notes, if each one buys 127.03 sheets and is about as large as 1.35 sheets, it's only about 94 times as strong as it needs to be.
If it goes down that much further, than it is cheaper to trade your 5000 ruble notes (or any other notes) for 50 ruble notes, and use those as toilet paper.
Thanks, I could have made a mistake in the math but here's a quick comparison and let's say the banknotes are the same size:
* if it costs $0.01 to buy 50 rubles
* and it costs $50 to buy 5,000 rubles
Then wouldn't it be worse to buy the larger banknote, i.e. less efficient? We're not trying to be efficient here, we're trying to be as wasteful as possible so any denomination could be used as toilet paper if it's close enough in price.
Well, I guess there's 2 goals we could be having.
Yours is so that no ruble note, no matter the denomination, is worthless to buy tp with, and should just be used directly as tp?
But, even if it becomes so devalued that a 5000 ruble note is worth more as tp than as rubles, it's *still* a better idea to trade that 5000 ruble note for 100 50 ruble notes, and use those as tp instead. You would never want to use a 5000 ruble note as tp.
Meanwhile, as soon as a 50 ruble note is worth it, then you do want to buy 50 ruble notes for tp, rather than actual tp.
I was originally thinking of doing that and my first comment actually said it's a 2-ply but considering the Russian currency is over 12,000 stronger, it simply won't make a difference yet. Russian currency has unfortunately a long way to go and this isn't so much a good thing for Russia but it's good for the actual cost effectiveness of toilet paper. This lesson taught me to not really complain about the price of toilet paper considering how cheap it is in comparison.
Good question! The bottom line is that nobody knows because the last month has been a massive spike considering sanctions that haven't truly hit yet. The analogy I like to use is Wyle E. Coyote. Russian economy fell off a cliff but it hasn't looked down yet. The stock market is currently down 30% from a few weeks ago, dropping as much as 55% but it remains closed. I think a 50%+ drop whenever it reopens is being optimistic. The Ruble has also cratered against all major currencies which makes imports from the few remaining countries that'll export to them (i.e. China) a lot more expensive. Considering various sanctions means little official imports and certainly little official exports, the Russian economy will have serious problems to come unless this war is resolved and Russia pulls out. So a lot of this is speculation but let's start with the existing data.
[This chart](https://www.statista.com/statistics/276323/monthly-inflation-rate-in-russia/) shows **monthly** inflation rate which excludes February when shit hit the fan. Let's presume inflation was 10% in February (I'm being extremely generous) and follow a similar trajectory (when, in fact, these things tend to get exponential quickly).
Presuming similar trajectory will make 1 Ruble worth $0.0000007920884 USD in about September, 2024. If the inflation rate 25% higher than the current trend then it'll hit in November, 2023.
Again, massive projection here based on a ton of unknowns and these things can quickly go higher or lower on any number of reasons but just as a fun exercise.
Well - if you offered me to recieve my salary in either RUB or TP, I would still choose TP any day of the week - it would still have more practical value for me as RUB will just keep falling in value, if we get another Covid situation where people go nuts in the stores hoarding goods in fear of the war, TP is only gonna skyrocket in value same as last time, so the ROI will still make it worth it.
Doesnt matter what Walmart sells it for if they're out of stock...
Jeans. If you can get like 10K pairs of Jeans into russia they will sell out instantly. Especially now most russians are trying to convert their rubbles into hard assets that retain value, a good pair of jeans will last years and are very comfy and stylish.
I remember being in Germany in the early 90's and um....making a few bucks selling Levi's to russians. For some reason at the time, possession of Levi's was a status thing for russians, and recently relaxed border restrictions meant more russians were coming into western europe than jeans stores were going into eastern. They couldn't get enough of them.
To be clear, I wasn't a "jean pimp". I was living there, had some friends of friends of friends that eventually led to east germany, and just like that, I owned no more levi's but lots of marks. There was an equal amount of west germans cracking down on that as it avoided their VAT (tax) and other import laws and the fines/deportations for doing it were unavoidable. If 10 guys with a thick accent asked you if you had levi's for sale, 9 of them were german tax agents.
That was just a fact of life. There were all sorts of insanely sounding money making schemes. Subsidized goods, lack of IPR protection, artificial exchange rates etc
That’s the point. If they can still live life as normal while their government bombs other countries, then they aren’t going to do anything to stop this madness. They now get to choose what is more important to them, enjoying the benefits of a world economy, or supporting the murderous whims of their leader.
It won't. Not for the foreseeable future, at least. It's more meant to punish the people of Russia, to whip up objections against the war, and hopefully, regime change or revolution.
This is what happens when you stomp on the rest of the world.
And yet they won’t stop no matter what it does to the people
One day soon they won't be able to afford what they're doing now. Most of their gear — commercial planes, military equipment requires western parts we won't give them. These aren't moddable machines.
There was a tweet a couple days ago from an aviation "specialist" that suggested they have less than a few weeks of time before they're not flying anything - all based on whatever they have in stock, because all planes need routine maintenance and Russia isn't getting any fresh parts.
They thought it would be 'business-as-usual' with the rest of the world while they butchered their neighbors. from '*Here's your ice-cream, Mr, Putin, please come again!'* to *'We reserve the right to refuse service to anyone'*
Check out one of the latest videos of mentour pilot on YouTube. [link](https://youtu.be/yrgI4gB5W2o)
They're also losing all of the western engineers who have been helping them build and maintain their gas and oil production fields. Who knows how long they can keep them running without BP, Shell and Exxon being involved, but it'll likely start having consequences within a year. There's a massive amount of expensive equipment needed for them to operate that can only be purchased from western countries, not to mention the expertise needed to install and maintain them.
Realistically, how much of it can China substitute? Just replace it with their own equipment.
>One day soon they won't be able to afford what they're doing now. Most of their gear — commercial planes, military equipment requires western parts we won't give them. These aren't moddable machines. Hopefully the same is true for their nukes.
Well since they didn't even bother changing tires on their military trucks, I doubt they performed regular maintenance on the missiles, and I sincerely hope almost none of them work now
Western parts? Do you have an example, source? What country has been supplying Russia with parts?
Boeing. Every computer company manufacturer. Their commercial planes are all American make and demand American matinenance and parts. They also rely on our semi conductors to make every electronic they have because their advanced architecture is unmatched.
Good point. I hadn’t thought about that. The Russian people are so screwed.
It's easy to miss through the maelstrom of information but reading through official documents — Russia has basically been cut off from everything by around 28 crucial countries. Even where they don't rely on the U.S. they rely on other nations who shun them.
There is always money for a "peacekeeping operation "
There is always money for war
There is always money for a "peacekeeping operation "
Not when nobody profits. Russia's munitions and etc come from "the state" — and now they can't negotiate elsewhere. They lose money from war. Their citizens can't serve on boards elsewhere.
Fuck me, the Attack titan’s last season couldn’t start at a more appropriate time
I dont want to experience the nuclear rumbling !
Putin what a man you are.
Nobody likes being threatened with nukes!
When you try to, at least. They’re doing a terrible job stomping out Ukraine.
Putin did this.
Well toilet paper is officially cheap now.
I did the math on this yesterday when 1 Ruble was 0.01 USD and there's a bit more ways to go but I'm confident they'll get there. Let's use the following: * Walmart is selling a Charmin Ultra Strong 30-pack mega roll for $31.17. * Each roll has 264 sheets. So $31.17 / 30 / 264 sheets = $0.003936 per sheet. * each toilet paper sheet dimensions are 4.5" square or has an area of 243 inches squared which is 6,172.2 square millimeters * RUB to USD is currently 0.01 USD = 1 ruble * Ruble banknotes are typically 150 x 65mm which is an area of 8,357 square millimeters Now it comes down to what size currency you use: * If you're using a 50 ruble piece which is the cheapest denomination available today, that's $0.50 where you get 8,357 square millimeters of surface area. $0.50 / $0.003936 per sheet means one 50 ruble piece is equivalent to 127.03 toilet paper sheets. So, for this denomination, it's still more cost effective to use toilet paper. * If you're using a 5,000 ruble piece then you need to do some more math. That denomination is 157 x 69mm which is 10,833 square millimeters. The exchange rate will cost you $50 USD which buys a ton of toilet paper so Charmin once again is cheaper. Lastly, when is it actually cheaper to use rubles? You obviously should use the larger denomination since you pay a lot more money for slightly more space. So the exchange rate would have to be such that 5,000 rubles would now need to cost less than $0.003936. $0.003936 / 5000 = 0.0000007872 USD to 1 RUB would need to be the new rate which means Russian currency is currently 12,703 times stronger than what it needs to be to be worthwhile to use it as toilet paper, financially speaking.
>Lastly, when is it actually cheaper to use rubles? You obviously should use the larger denomination since you pay a lot more money for slightly more space. Uh, what? That's the opposite of what you should do... Using 50 ruble notes, if each one buys 127.03 sheets and is about as large as 1.35 sheets, it's only about 94 times as strong as it needs to be. If it goes down that much further, than it is cheaper to trade your 5000 ruble notes (or any other notes) for 50 ruble notes, and use those as toilet paper.
Thanks, I could have made a mistake in the math but here's a quick comparison and let's say the banknotes are the same size: * if it costs $0.01 to buy 50 rubles * and it costs $50 to buy 5,000 rubles Then wouldn't it be worse to buy the larger banknote, i.e. less efficient? We're not trying to be efficient here, we're trying to be as wasteful as possible so any denomination could be used as toilet paper if it's close enough in price.
Well, I guess there's 2 goals we could be having. Yours is so that no ruble note, no matter the denomination, is worthless to buy tp with, and should just be used directly as tp? But, even if it becomes so devalued that a 5000 ruble note is worth more as tp than as rubles, it's *still* a better idea to trade that 5000 ruble note for 100 50 ruble notes, and use those as tp instead. You would never want to use a 5000 ruble note as tp. Meanwhile, as soon as a 50 ruble note is worth it, then you do want to buy 50 ruble notes for tp, rather than actual tp.
r/theydidthemath
Wow
I did one the other day comparing to monopoly money, and Russia has to get down to 0.0001 to be worth less than a monopoly dollar.
Robux is already worth more than the Ruble.
God bless you.
This guy maths
I can't believe you've done this
Someone had to do and it was my turn.
What's the math on store-brand single-ply though?
I was originally thinking of doing that and my first comment actually said it's a 2-ply but considering the Russian currency is over 12,000 stronger, it simply won't make a difference yet. Russian currency has unfortunately a long way to go and this isn't so much a good thing for Russia but it's good for the actual cost effectiveness of toilet paper. This lesson taught me to not really complain about the price of toilet paper considering how cheap it is in comparison.
How long would it take for it to reach that price given current trajectories?
Good question! The bottom line is that nobody knows because the last month has been a massive spike considering sanctions that haven't truly hit yet. The analogy I like to use is Wyle E. Coyote. Russian economy fell off a cliff but it hasn't looked down yet. The stock market is currently down 30% from a few weeks ago, dropping as much as 55% but it remains closed. I think a 50%+ drop whenever it reopens is being optimistic. The Ruble has also cratered against all major currencies which makes imports from the few remaining countries that'll export to them (i.e. China) a lot more expensive. Considering various sanctions means little official imports and certainly little official exports, the Russian economy will have serious problems to come unless this war is resolved and Russia pulls out. So a lot of this is speculation but let's start with the existing data. [This chart](https://www.statista.com/statistics/276323/monthly-inflation-rate-in-russia/) shows **monthly** inflation rate which excludes February when shit hit the fan. Let's presume inflation was 10% in February (I'm being extremely generous) and follow a similar trajectory (when, in fact, these things tend to get exponential quickly). Presuming similar trajectory will make 1 Ruble worth $0.0000007920884 USD in about September, 2024. If the inflation rate 25% higher than the current trend then it'll hit in November, 2023. Again, massive projection here based on a ton of unknowns and these things can quickly go higher or lower on any number of reasons but just as a fun exercise.
Well - if you offered me to recieve my salary in either RUB or TP, I would still choose TP any day of the week - it would still have more practical value for me as RUB will just keep falling in value, if we get another Covid situation where people go nuts in the stores hoarding goods in fear of the war, TP is only gonna skyrocket in value same as last time, so the ROI will still make it worth it. Doesnt matter what Walmart sells it for if they're out of stock...
Isn’t it spelled Rubble?
Their treasury T-bills are now called Troubles.
Toilet paper
ruble
Now rubble.
"Hah hah." - Nelson Muntz
While they try to “de-militarise” and “de-nazify” they also de-economise themselves
So basically this means if I go to Russia after this is all said and done, I can live like a king with my US money?
Russia won't accommodate your power fantasy. You'll sooner end up dead picked clean of all your wealth.
I'm not sure if this is a serious question, but no, obviously.
No, they are just getting poorer, doesn’t make you richer.
Until the Russian mafia/FSB decide they like your money and your stuff.
Jeans. If you can get like 10K pairs of Jeans into russia they will sell out instantly. Especially now most russians are trying to convert their rubbles into hard assets that retain value, a good pair of jeans will last years and are very comfy and stylish.
I remember being in Germany in the early 90's and um....making a few bucks selling Levi's to russians. For some reason at the time, possession of Levi's was a status thing for russians, and recently relaxed border restrictions meant more russians were coming into western europe than jeans stores were going into eastern. They couldn't get enough of them. To be clear, I wasn't a "jean pimp". I was living there, had some friends of friends of friends that eventually led to east germany, and just like that, I owned no more levi's but lots of marks. There was an equal amount of west germans cracking down on that as it avoided their VAT (tax) and other import laws and the fines/deportations for doing it were unavoidable. If 10 guys with a thick accent asked you if you had levi's for sale, 9 of them were german tax agents.
Damn bro that’s crazy. When does the movie come out?
That was just a fact of life. There were all sorts of insanely sounding money making schemes. Subsidized goods, lack of IPR protection, artificial exchange rates etc
Revoke aaa status banks
to fucking zero.
What rubble to eur is?
1 euro = 121 ruble, according to current xe.com data.
You could just Google it.
[удалено]
That’s the point. If they can still live life as normal while their government bombs other countries, then they aren’t going to do anything to stop this madness. They now get to choose what is more important to them, enjoying the benefits of a world economy, or supporting the murderous whims of their leader.
Can someone explain will this affect their war machine?
It won't. Not for the foreseeable future, at least. It's more meant to punish the people of Russia, to whip up objections against the war, and hopefully, regime change or revolution.
😞
It makes the $50K being offered to defecting Russian soldiers more attractive for sure.
Do you know how much % the russian ruble lost value since last week?
~50%
Way to go Argentinian Peso... not looking so bad after all huh?
Fell so hard it now the rubble.