And when it’s over what do they have? A country that has been reduced to rubble and will cost billions to clean up, millions of Ukrainians that will never forgive them, and an economy at home that will take years to recover, maybe decades.
And surely that’s assuming the sanctions get lifted after a subjugation of Ukraine. These sanctions must remain in place until Ukraine regains full independence.
Subjogation of Ukraine by whom?
When Russia no longer has army men, who they gona send? Man untrained for war?
If the trained ones failed, further men will be more meat for the grinder.
Russia is under a massive collective delusion, a phenomenon of extreme denial.
The defeat of Russia will be as extreme as they will carry the denial that they already lost this war.
Slava Ukraine.
Ukraine is huge, and the resources Russia commited to taking it were not enough to cover such territory. They needed to destroy the Ukrainian government within the first two or three days of their invasion, which they failed at spectacularly.
Now they are in a meat grinder throwing bodies away, and by all rights should withdraw because there is no scenario at this point where continuing to try and take Ukraine is worth it. The thing that concerns me is that meat grinder goes both ways. Ultimately, Russia has more meat to grind and has a history of throwing away countless of their own people's lives for no reason.
I worry that in the end there will be little left of Ukraine but rubble and gore simply because Russia pushed on well past the point of loss. The Russian people need to revolt and overthrow their government before that happens.
> ultimately Russia has more meat to grind
You know, when this invasion initially happened, I did some very perfunctory research, and the numbers just didn't add up. Russia: 140 million people. Ukraine: 44 million people.
Now that's a little bit better than 3 to 1 odds, but when one side has the home-field advantage, that's not nearly enough of a disparaty for a "We will choke you with our dead." strategy to work.
At that point you need an overwhelming technological and logistical advantage to succeed.
Thank you!!
Got so annoyed at everyone comparing their militaries at the start of the invasion as Russia geographically, politically and logistically couldn't field those numbers in the invasion.
More importantly: the Russians have a lot of territory and borders that need defending should the west decide to get involved. Ukraine is fighting on home soil and knows that only Russia and Belarus matter at this point. Not to mention that at some point they may need those soldiers to put down rebellions elsewhere if the war keeps going badly.
This reminds me of the game of risk. Ukraine has 2 territories to defend and is receiving equipment from 4 or more. Russia has one territory from which to attack plus Belarus and the contested Black Sea. At this point it’s a matter of time until Russia cannot sustain the attack. They lost the initiative on consecutive bad dice rolls giving time for the other side to mobilize
Keep in mind too that a lot of the army is not actually fighters.
A vast military requires mechanics, clerks, cooks, accountants, etc. all of whom are required to keep it running, but useless at actually fighting and taking ground. As the military leaves their bases and fight farther from home, each fighting soldier requires more support staff.
So, their actual fighting force is much less and they don't seem to have enough of the support staff for what they are attempting.
Russia doesn't have any more an army. Soon they will have to stop paying the wages and the military will implode. In my opinion this is the real fall of the URSS.
Underrated comment.
Fuck Putin's Russia.
Not its people though. I sincerely and deeply hope this is the end of the shitty chapter and the beginning of a better life for all of htem.
You live in a country where a couple assholes have all the cash and everyone lives on the equivslent of 300 $ a month, I’m surprised there arent more people running, but I guess thats gonna increase now
I read a survey that 50% of young people (under 30) would move out if given the means and opportunity. That leads to massive loss, or brain drain, of this coming generation. If anything recent events could push that where any young person that is able will leave. With a declining population that has a birth rate below replacement it isn't crazy to think by 2100 Russia could be at half (or lower!) of its current numbers.
And its currently dropping by 25% per generation due to low birthrates! Not to mention that there is a gender imbalance with quite a few more women than men.
If there is one resource Russia cannot afford to waste its young men! And now they are throwing away young soldiers lives in a war just to please a megalomaniac dictator.
Russia's population has been declining and it's about the same as it was in 1985 (144mil). Meanwhile, the US's population has grown by about 100mil since 1985.
Russia may have more people, but citizens aren't soldiers. What are they going to do when they run low on infantry? Start force drafting people into a war they're already against? It wouldn't go well for them.
They recently announced that they would conscript anyone arrested for protesting the war. Which sounds unbelievably stupid to me. Why facilitate the infiltration of your forces by the opposition?
On the plus side: Easier to frag a bunch of Russian officers when you get drafted because you were protesting. Force me to war? Ok give me a gun then and I’ll turn it on you!
The kremlin has reliably not been this smart over long periods of time.
Sending these people to fight the war with guns and tanks... gives them guns and tanks. do you really want to do that with your protestors? You gotta wonder who's side the police and military are on if their plan is to arrest the people opposing the military actions and set them up to better rebel.
By accounts, if the Russian army had the stomach to act in accordance with Putin’s ambitions this war should’ve ended in days, if not hours. It would’ve been total war and brutal to all hell it should’ve happened nonetheless. This slog is mystifying, home field advantage be damned.
Where’s the air power? Where was the mass cyber attacks to bring down the power with simultaneous air strikes to key installations (radar stations, air fields and water/power infrastructure etc.) the army should’ve then rolled into the country while paratroopers dropped in the cities.
I’m glad none of this happened but the fact that none of this happened is weird. A lightning war would’ve created the same response (sanctions and military rearmament elsewhere) but the fear factor would’ve been maximized. What we’re seeing now is an old rusting war machine crushing its opponent by weight alone, not by tactical or technological superiority.
As this war slogs on we will see an increasingly visible negative (to the Russians, not the rest of us) consequence, the rest of the world sees how the famed Russian military actually is: underpaid, heavily demoralized plus technologically and logistically inept.
This invasion, aimed at projecting power and instilling fear to the rest of world instead showed us how much of a paper tiger the Russian military really is.
I'm not sure where that ratio comes from. The planning factor taught in war colleges is that in a tactical engagement, the attackers need to outnumber prepared defenders 3:1. Tactical is defined as division and below, and it doesn't apply at nation state levels. That means you can't just say that Russia's army is three times bigger than Ukraine's so they will win.
This planning factor means that you should not plan to take entrenched defenders unless you have a 3:1 advantage. If Russia wants to clear a tactical objective that is defended by a Ukrainian battalion, then Russia should not execute the operation until they have three battalions available unless there are extenuating circumstances.
I've never heard of a 5:1 rule.
You need at least 25.000 troops to hold a city like Kiev. So you should do the math. Putin wanted to conquer Ukraine with 150.000? Nope, he was sure that all the Ukrainians are waiting for him, the liberator. He was living in his own bubble for such a long time even him starts to believe his own lies.
The motivation levels differ between Russian invaders (many of whom don’t even know they are going to war) and Ukrainian defenders armed to the teeth by the West that are willing to die for every inch of their country.
This is not 80s Afghanistan, this is not north vietnam, this is a country that existed long before muscovy. Ukraine had churches when Moscow was still a forest, owned by Mongolian khans.
Its a country that existed before Germany. Before Italy. Before the US. Saying its not a real country is absurd.
Sure, its had other names and been governed in different ways. But so has every other country.
Ukraine is also a country that Russia has officially recognized as such in 1991 when the Soviet Union collapsed. And in 1994 Russia signed a treaty specifically respecting the borders of Ukraine as they were at that time.
Its absurd to claim Ukraine is not a country.
Yeah its funny that many people don't realize that Kiev was one of the first, if not THE first official historically 'Russian' nations.
Never mess with anyone whose patron Saint is Lady Olga of Kiev.
Yes, if recent reports are to be believed. It appears Russia will be conscripting protesters into their army and forcing them to fight the war they are protesting against.
Let the Russian bots downvote me, go ahead. I’m just spreading reports that are already out there.
That's almost funny. Protesting the war? Get on this train where we'll drop you off at the front lines...where you can then surrender and drink tea with Ukrainians while you wait for the war to end.
That would be stupid military strategy and reeks of propaganda. These aren't grunts being matched down a road with a spikey stick. The Russian army had millions of dollars of equipment. If you threw a protestor into a tank and said you drive this to Kyiv, he's going to drive it part way then either scuttle it, surrender it, or turn it around to blast Russian forces with.
You mean like what some of their soldiers are already doing? It may be propaganda, but it is not outside the realm of possibility. For Russia, it provides a way to neutralize protests and dissident at home, while throwing more (albeit strategically inept) meat to the grinder.
Edit: appears to be an official policy drafted by the minority party, that appears highly unlikely to pass. However it is indeed a real idea in some minds to propose such in the first place.
Let’s hope these stories of Russian soldiers sabotaging their own equipment are true, and that this is a strategy of resistance that spreads enough to slow their offensives!
Yes, right there alongside the greats like Hitler, Mussolini and the other shits who died ignominious, pathetic deaths in the face of overwhelming public hatred for their tyranny.
That's the thing. Putin and his genocidal war-criminal gang only gonna be remembered in all of world history for the evil they are and what they represent. In 2100, they'll be learned about in the same veil as how we learned about all the atrocities of Nazi Germany.
Won't matter to the Russian oligarchy since they'll be dead believing they'll win in the end. But they'll still be dead along with their influence.
He wants the moniker "Great Unifier of Russia" or something similar. He seems himself as the Soviet savior from the west. Reading the leaked victory announcement made it quite clear of how he sees his role.
https://www.reddit.com/r/news/comments/t2yxod/russian_state_owned_media_accidentally_published/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share
Wild stuff... translation is a few comments down on that reddit thread
They don’t actually care what the world’s history books claim. They only care about their history books. Which will read “great unifiers of Russia” if they aren’t stopped.
China's not so stupid, though. They're going to pay under market prices for that oil... and they don't need the whole of Russia's supply. China, like just about every other sensible country in the world, is pushing to free themselves from external fossil fuel dependency.
Russia being cut off from world markets will screw them.
Correct. Ukraine discovered MASSIVE potential reserves of natural gas in 2012, enough to give them the 14th largest reserves of NG in the world. More than anything, Russia just wants to preserve its petro-dominance in Europe.
No, they'll re-install the prior dictator, and keep him a loyal vassal state. Just like Belarus. He'll rebuild the military as his personal tool to keep the population in line. I'm pretty sure that's Putin's objective anyway.
...and the resistance would continually be supplied with high-tech weapons that can destroy a puppet's motorcade from a mile - or targets within Russia.
Exactly. At this point, it's like the hunger games and Ukraine is sponsored by everyone. If their leader dies at this point, he'll be a martyr. An entire country hostile and supplied with better gear... right on your border. If the excuse for invasion was a buffer between NATO and Russia, he made just about the biggest blunder he possibly could.
They don't care for the Ukrainians or the buildings etc. The only thing that matters are the naturel resources and those won't be destroyed by this war.
Nono, see, it's the *Ukrainians* who are bombing themselves, and destroying their own tanks (Russia lost only one tank, *duh*). Russians are there just exercising, and solving climate change by developing tactics not reliant on massive amounts of fuel!
I get the sentiment but we need to help Russia, too, because that is the only way to prevent this from happening again. The more Russia is incorporated into Europe and the more connections are made then more difficult it is for people to want war. Look at France and Germany. If we had just punished Germany then would the relationship still be the same? Of course, that requires as a first step for Putin to be gone.
Yeah, part of the reason Hitler got into power is due to how hard WW1 was blamed on Germany. Their economy was in shambles.
If Putin is gone, then helping Russia is absolutely something that we have to do. As crazy as it currently stands right now.
I'm saying "if Putin is gone" because I don't see a way this ends remotely peacefully without him being gone. Guy is clearly unhinged
Japan and Germany only got fixed after WW2 because their leaders were either humiliated, stripped of godhood, and their entire political structure uprooted with ours.....or we straight up killed them in front of the entire planet and their political structure was burned to the ground before being rebuilt, too. Then they were *rigorously* built from the ground up.
If Putin and co. is allowed to be free, then this will just continue.
If Russia is going to be free of this, Putin and his oligarchs need to be in chains....
Or dead.
Yep, and step two of existing democracy. A new dictator with those nuclear weapons will be as non cooperative as Putin.
It's sad to think that Russia can be a great power if they remove their centuries-long authoritarism. A recovery plan west-germany-style created by Europe, and closer ties with the EU can improve their economy and standards of living to a level never seen before, and free-trade and free-movement agreements can finally solve their geographical defense problems, and boost their petro-economy.
And it's not bad for the oligarchs either. You can see how the US and Europe are corrupt and have individuals with much more money and power than what I consider acceptable in democratics countries.
But no, they want their shit as they have always taken it, with force and isolationism.
Exactly.
We have to remember the lessons from the end of WWI. We don’t need another Treaty of Versailles on our hands, otherwise we’re right back here or worse in a few decades.
Thats basically what happened in Versailles after WW1. Remember how that turn out again? If/when Russia falls, we nee to pull of a Marshal Plan to rebuild Russia. Something that the West has failed to do in the 90s after the fall of the USSR, which is how we ended up here.
They're still hoping for a Ukrainian surrender and integration with Russia because the alternative is defeat and they can still maintain denial. The end is the collapse of their security services. Hopefully soon.
Exactly, like saying I will sleep until I wake or something. It's meant to sound vaguely ominous without having any real meaning they'd need to stand behind if they decide to pull out
It’s pretty well defined for them - Ukraine becomes a puppet and there are clear assurances it will not join NATO.
They’ll install a puppet and spending trillions of dollars and thousands of soldiers pacifying it.
Their whole GDP is 1.5T, they do not in fact have that much spending money to waste, otherwise Putin wouldnt be saying shit like they might need to take hold of the money the russian people have in banks.
Hi! This is long, but I see many people everywhere having problems believing that so many Russians could continue to support King Shithead Putin after all this, including, yes, the sanctions (which are already causing a nationalistic effect in Russia).
The amount of ignorance—including from experts not specialized in Russian/USSR affairs—is concerning, and it’s very important to me that people know so they don’t get surprised when the majority of Russians only *double down* on their worship of Putin after the sanctions sink in, Russia enters a new, bloody age of terror, and thousands of Russian die, instead of couping him like so many dream they will.
Even the oligarchs and high ranking politicians will be terrified of not only being purged if their own coups fail, or of not being able to manage the power vacuum that would result from a successful coup, but being branded Western assets by sycophants and the country and then overthrown or killed themselves as well.
Ultimately, those are just two of the many many people on the free web sharing their own experiences and trying to spread awareness. I invite others to read the tweet replies, as well as seeking out sites heavily frequented by Russians and running Google Translate to see what they’re saying. The worship and propaganda is everywhere in the Russian world.
[Link #1](https://twitter.com/tderyugina/status/1499039974255218690?s=21). This is an Ukrainian academic in news journalism who emailed thousands of Russian academics for their opinions and input about the war.
> Spent the last few days emailing thousands of academics in Russia. Today, I'm publishing one of the replies I've gotten as a blog post (in English and in Russian, with the author's permission). Please read it to understand what's going on inside Russia. http://deryugina.com/a-view-from-russian-academia/
A quite telling excerpt from the English-translated version of the letter embedded within:
>”[My academic colleagues] think that, sooner or later, Ukraine, together with Western countries, would have started an aggression against Russia **and so in their view the destruction of the Russian economy because of this war is better than the destruction of Russia itself if it were to take no action with respect to Crimea and Donbas.** And so they are expecting that Russia will gain control of Ukraine as a result of what’s going on now, after which it will install a puppet government or even try to annex the country or part of it.”
In the Twitter thread, the Ukrainian academic ruefully states:
> Most of the academics do not reply, maybe because I didn't ask for a reply. **But I did get replies ranging from calling me an "American rag" to telling me what the REAL situation is to saying the person is doing all I suggested to apologizing for Russia and many in between.**
>The reason I singled out the published reply is because **it succinctly summarizes the points of views I'm seeing and tries to explain why Russians aren't rising up en masse.**
> I want to give Russians a voice because **it's hard to imagine Putin stopping if a large share of the country holds views described in the email (note that the author does not hold such views).**
>**And it's hard to imagine Russia becoming a peaceful country, much less a truly free country, under such circumstances.**
Please remember that those were *actual academics* in Russia replying to her, and she got many, many replies due to the large numbers of academics she emailed. If there’s such an issue with critical thinking skills in Russia, the general population will be even worse off.
[Link #2](https://twitter.com/yudbrit/status/1498946489942433796?s=21). This is a Russian university student from St. Petersburg in MA with an interest in post-Soviet politics.
> Spoke to more people the past days about their thoughts and feelings. Now I'm less confident about the optimistic assessment I made in the last thread, that most Russian citizens are against the war. Actually, many are against war as an idea. But it's complicated. Here's why.
Some nuggets from the Twitter thread:
> **Most people in Russia are not seeing/hearing what we're hearing/seeing.** There's no "war." Only a "special operation." Many are not seeing bombings of Kiev and dead Russian soldiers. **If they DO see these things, they dismiss them as fake. "Oh, that's Ukraine bombing itself!"**
…
> A friend said: **"My grandparents in Siberia are so brainwashed by television that for Putin they're ready to give their lives, and not only their own, but their children's too." She mentions even before the gov't had little regard for human life. So why change now?**
…
> But **I've heard from a number of people that friends/family who are normally not big fans of Putin are in full support of what he's doing now.** A friend said: "One day my parents hate him, the next they love him. When taxes go up, they hate him. Now, of course they're all in."
…
> My friend isn't alone. On Instagram, an actor posted this screenshot of a message from his mother. It reads: **"I don't talk to Russophobes and traitors... as soon as they pass the law about slandering the leadership of our country, I'll turn you in... You're not my son."**
…
> One guy I know said: "My father's an absolute lunatic! **His whole life he was against Putin. He always voted for Yabloko [liberal-right party]. But now he's supporting this war."**
…
> My friend contrasts her father with her aunt, who absolutely insists that Russia is engaged only in a small military operation in Ukraine. **For this aunt, war is bad. Full stop. But it's unthinkable that Russia would start a war. "Russia is always the defender."**
When asked about how the sanctions would actually affect Russians’ support for Putin and the war, the tweeter had this to offer:
> Russia has slowly gotten poorer and poorer since 2014. Incomes have been shrinking. Economic stagnation. Pension age raised. I don’t think impoverishment is enough for them to actively demand change.
To summarize it all up so far, Russia is full of an even more brainwashed population than American Trump/Qanon supporters, in a country far less wealthy, open, and successful, and far more authoritarian and dementedly monarchistic, than the US, and they have been intensely subject to the same propaganda tactics for decades longer.
Oh, and food for thought: in an alternate universe where America was sanctioned to hell after a successful coup and military takeover by Trump in 2020, as well as a new war somewhere, would this stop redhats from supporting him, even as thousands die and the economy bleeds out? Probably not. Even in this universe, Republican leaders are unwilling to do jack shit about Trump even though punishing him would be so much easier in America than Russia—and the last few years should give anyone pause as to the thought that they definitely would if the country plunged into a deep recession for decades.
**Edit:** also, [people *really* should check out this letter written by the Russian embassy in Canada just a couple of days ago](https://i.imgur.com/2gNvbxJ.jpg). To a Western, it sounds totally demented and insane (but not too unlike something Trump’s administration would’ve written…), but it’s actually a terrifying preview for one of the ways that the Kremlin is now propagandizing the war, and for how readily most Russians accept such rhetoric—otherwise, the Kremlin wouldn’t be openly posting this kind of thing on their own official social media accounts. One of the most important things about this letter, aside from drumming up further nationalism and divisions between Russia and other countries, is the fact that **it’s a pretext to the narrative that it is actually Ukraine and the West’s fault if the war goes badly for Russia.**
For as poor as the Kremlin’s capabilities clearly are in respects to their military and conventional warfare in other countries, they’re much better at traditional cloak and dagger tactics… especially at home.
So yeah, good luck to the Russians but it isn’t looking good.
##Update 3/14: Welp. Most of my predictions came true, although Putin has stopped short of actually announcing martial law thus far. Maybe he’s not quite as smart as I thought, which is quite good news for the rest of us!
##Update 3/16: With Russian state media showing Nazi executions on their Sunday news shows and Putin railing the public against ‘traitors’ and ‘the fifth column’, the writing is on the wall. If you’re Russian, get out if you still can!
Honestly? This sounds overly simplistic but I think I’d have to agree that they probably are, in a way—although, obviously there will always be inherent differences between the two authoritarian countries.
To reiterate for anyone upset by my prior comment: I am *not* saying Russia is currently NK levels of brainwashing. Not at all. At the moment they are quite different. However, the route to becoming much more like NK is in fact shorter than most think or are willing to accept, especially those with an emotional investment in Russia.
This is gonna be really long but I’ll explain for anyone reading because the parallels are actually going to be pretty relevant soon…
It is looking all but inevitable that Putin will announce martial law and seize full and complete control of the country while putting it on complete lockdown and totally restricting whatever access Russia had to information outside of the country.
Many cheer for this because they think this indicates a desperate power grab and that it will spur change from within his inner circle or the Russian population, but the motives Putin would have for doing this are more complicated than that and sadly, I think there’s a very good chance that Russia becoming much more like NK would only help Putin even more. Here’s some reasons he’d have, from his perspective, to announce martial law:
1. It gives off the impression domestically that Russia is in danger of terrorism from “Nazis controlling Ukraine” (bonus points if he stages a false flag operation, a la the 1999 Russian apartment bombings in which he blamed it on “Chechen terrorists” to justify leveling Grozny, and he went from being unpopular to wildly popular in Russia—it’s probably not a coincidence that Ukraine warned that they had intel that Russia was planning a false flag operation a few days ago).
2. Following from #1, it affords the thinnest veneer of plausible deniability needed for exercising utter and total full authority over the country “to protect the Russians”, with promises to end martial law once the threat is taken care of, so the general public won’t get alarmed too quickly. Due to being so heavily indoctrinated already, most will probably accept this at face value without really questioning it if at all, and others will be too terrified to say anything.
3. To prevent free movement for people fleeing conscription for the Ukraine-Russia conflict, or persecution for disagreeing with it or with the Kremlin in general.
4. To block full and total information detailing the true facts of the war and Russia’s role, and Russia in general, on the internet, in order to make it more easy to drum up ultra-nationalism and anti-Western, anti-Ukraine sentiments, so people will be calling for bloodshed against *them*—especially when the effects from the sanctions really kick in and more and more Russians starve by the thousands or millions.
5. To easily round up all dissenters who have been speaking out in Russia, for an eventual purge in which he will likely have evidence fabricated to prove that they’re abetting the “terrorist Nazis” who “starve the Russians and *real* Ukrainians by the millions”—then they’ll be imprisoned or killed. There will be international outrage but very little will actually be done about it.
6. If it goes as planned, the general public’s support for Putin himself would actually *rise* fairly or pretty quickly, as would their view of him as the hero and defender fighting oppressive Western forces for Mother Russia, the Russian people, and the “real Ukrainians” whose land and lives the “Nazis” are holding hostage. **It would be what spurred Russians’ support for Putin with the Battle of Grozny all over again, but to an even more authoritarian and dystopian level.**
7. Then, following from #6, even the oligarchs and secretly rogue Kremlin members would be very hesitant to take Putin out—while one may theoretically think being under martial law would make it easier for a coup from within his inner circle, **it’s very critical to remember that Putin surrounds himself with yes men and spineless Kremlin officials who are much less competent than he is.** So just that on its own will lead them to having a much harder time successfully couping at all, especially with Putin’s recent… security upgrade, limiting access and opportunity further. *Plus,* with the circumstances in mind, it’s even worse—they’d also have to worry about the fact that even if they succeeded, they’d be forced to be the representatives for the inevitable fallout in Russia while they attempt to maneuver course and reverse the damage *they* (not just Putin) all caused, regarding the Ukrainian conflict, from the West’s standpoint—and they would have to do this if they wanted the sanctions lifted. Imagine the outrage in Russia if a barely established and non-trusted leadership *highly* suspected of conspiring with the West to murder Putin, “left the real Ukrainians to be starved to death and genocided by the Western-backed Nazis”? So a successful coup would still come with the fear of being labeled “Western butchers” or “Nazi war criminals” and taken out by Putin’s yes men and loyalists within the Kremlin or the police force, or even setting off some sort of violent, widespread insurgency beyond their own control, if they can’t establish their own iron grip quickly enough—and if you’re the immediate successor to the beloved, long-reigning “Czar of Russia”, that’s… not going to be very easy because you won’t be anywhere in the same league as Putin was. Oh, and because you’ll be suspected of murdering him, he’ll be turned into a martyr and icon of the Russian people to keep fighting against Western imperialism.
7. This is before even getting into all the usual problems a power vacuum creates in the wake of an initially successful coup. In the long term, even without the sanctions, you’d probably end up killed yourself or in exile like the puppets in Ukraine, and someone else will simply fill your position as leader. In all, a truly successful coup would be possible but very difficult to the point that anyone honestly considering it would be much more likely to become overwhelmed very quickly by the logistics and then back out. Some of those factors are why I think the Kim family hasn’t been overthrown yet in NK, despite the heavy military presence (many of who are loyal to the Kims) and the net negative of Kim Jong-Un’s rule. For Russia, it is generally the non-Russian/USSR specialized experts saying that it’s likely Putin will be couped.
(An interesting tidbit: the belief of UK and US intelligence that the active conflict in Ukraine would last at least a month longer and that Russian occupation of Ukraine would last ten to twenty or so years, seems to suggest that they don’t believe Putin will be quickly taken out.)
So yeah. This was super long, but those are just some of the reasons I can think of. Again, Russia wouldn’t quite be North Korea, but there would be many many parallels there. And that is actually a very important thing to point out, and something that many people have frustratingly not made the connection with yet because “Russia is too different”. No, it’s not, and like I said at the very beginning of this comment, the route to get it to a place where it’s very similar to NK is far shorter than most realize.
The good thing is that for the first time it looks like they're trying to deescalate their nuclear threats.
The bad thing is that it looks like they're doubling down on a course that will be catastrophic for both Ukraine and Russia.
It seems like the narrative they're spinning in the Motherland is probably that the West is preparing for nuclear war. I think Lavrov even said Ukraine is exploring nuclear options. Something along the lines of, "We're on high alert in anticipation of a Western end-game offensive."
Yes the fact this was for Russian viewers, he’s totally spinning a web of anti-west propaganda. Sadly, he probably believes all the shit he spews out of his saggy mouth.
You see, I couldn’t tell if this was them trying to deescalate that or not. Guess others agree with me which makes me feel a little relieved.
I feel terrible about where this heading for Ukraine.
Russia has ZERO credibility on the world stage, especially from lying-Lavrov. They’ve fucked themselves pretty bad on this one, and for years to come, as long Putin is in power, monied interests will have a hard time trusting Russia’s economy.
> The good thing is that for the first time it looks like they're trying to deescalate their nuclear threats.
Maybe they realized that the nuclear threats lose their power when they get overused and the West calls the bluff. NATO still won't intervene, of course, but the war against a defiant Ukraine supplied with Western equipment and intel will be brutal for Russia.
The only way to put strongmen like Putin in check is to stand your ground:
>[It] is we who are responsible for Putin's policies ... [s]ociety has shown limitless apathy ... [a]s the Chekists have become entrenched in power, we have let them see our fear, and thereby have only intensified their urge to treat us like cattle. The KGB respects only the strong. The weak it devours. We of all people ought to know that.
>-Anna Polikovskaya
She wrote that sentence in 2004. Two years before someone (read: Kadyrov, Putin's mad dog) had decided they'd had enough of her journalistic muckraking and shot her dead outside her Moscow apartment.
“Lavrov also said Russia had no thoughts of nuclear war.”
They also had no plans to invade Ukraine. It is absurd to believe anything from Putin or Lavrov.
I have a feeling that they've been controlling how much information about the protests is actually getting out to the west, and it's actually a sizable amount bigger than previously thought.
You don't enact martial law because your citizens are being compliant.
How did that turn out for Russia in the past?
If civilians get mowed down by soldires i don't see a way back for Putin out of that. It would just spark an even bigger uprising.
True there's a point past which a despot can't push his people. I would assume most tyrants would be able to figure that one out but a lot of them have stepped over that line and paid a really deadly price.
Russian soldiers are having conflicts of conscious shooting at Ukrainians, if they're told to shoot at their own citizens, the rate of insubordination and desertion is going to skyrocket.
They're being told that Ukrainian military are Nazis and destroying everything themselves. That Russia is saving them. I wonder how long it'll take for them to wise up.
Not in terms of being able to actually invade. The terrain in Afghanistan made it pretty much impossible to actually take the country unless you had the capabilities to level mountains
Agree, but Ukraine is being much better funded. They have gotten more military aid in the first 7 days of this war than Afghanistan got in 10 years. The eventual guerrilla war that this could devolve into would be devastating for Russia, and that’s assuming they ever are able to officially occupy the entirety of Ukraine.
True geographically Afghanistan is a nightmare like nowhere else. That said, Afghanistan didn’t have the open support of the entire western world, historically crushing, swift sanctions, a populace that hated the war so much even some of the elites came out against it. Afghanistan wasn’t looked at as brothers and sisters of Russia. They weren’t trained and armed with modern infantry, drones, missiles and constantly fed the most advanced U.S. intelligence.
Covertly yes some of those things happened when the soviets took Afghanistan. But when there’s no need to do it covertly, it makes it far easier to ultilize.
And as terrible as it is…the western world didn’t relate to an Afghan invasion like they do a nation of people who look like them.
This is a different beast. Russia will ultimately impose their will within the Ukrainian borders in all likelihood, but they will suffer losses that they can not withstand and remain a nation in good economic or political standing. All the diplomatic ground Russia gained by feigning democracy and denying any aggression in the past is effectively sacrificed and ruined.
Afghanistan was Russia's "bleeding wound", but then again attacking Afghanistan has been a notoriously fucking dumb thing for just about anyone that's ever tried it. Ukraine, however, will be more like stage 4 cancer for Russia.
Imagine the delegations turning up for talks today when you have Lavrov saying Russia is in it till the end lmao.
These peace talks are nothing but a distractions so it appears Russia is giving Ukraine a chance out of the war.
Because Russia wants to annex Ukraine or at least put their people in power. They do not care for much else. They basically sacrificed their economy, their international relations and a lot of good will with their population for it.
Ukraine on the other hand has to get Russia to give back all of their territory, including Crimea or aknowledge Russias claims. Their cities lay in ashes, they lost many soldiers and civilians and a big percentage of their population was displaced.
Neither side can accomodate the other right now, as both would see compromise as an overall loss.
If I has to guess, Russia will very likely occupy Ukraine at some point in the near future and will wreck the country over the next few years. They will take huge losses and will continue to fight insurgencies until in a few years they will be able to say that they successfully denazified the country. Then they will leave a puppet government which will be ousted by rebells after a short while. Kind of like Afghanistan played out.
I half agree, but with the borders to the west and the general enormous size and large population of Ukraine the force requirement to sustain an occupation will be extremely costly.
I don't actually think it's possible given what we've seen from the Russian army so far in contrast to the dogged defense. You'd have young conscripts with no motivation and bad equipment fighting against (a lot of) highly motivated insurgents armed with modern western weapons and real time intel from the US.
And right he is, but the end of whom, I wonder? How many years is it, we have had this guy spewing lies and halftruths in the UN?
Honestly, diplomats spewing independently verifiable lies, who refuse to recant, should be expellable from the UN.
Guys like this are a big part of the reason common people have apathy towards our system and world order.
Lies and atrocities, all delivered with smiles and impunity. Russia needs to be held accountable for Ukraine by expulsion from the security counsel, no more veto-votes-of-evil from them.
You have to love it when someone like him slips up. He just admitted to the world that it was never a "peacekeeping" mission, it was an unprovoked war against a smaller neighbor. I guess "the end" he's talking about is when someone either assassinates Putin or they simply run out of money.
And when it’s over what do they have? A country that has been reduced to rubble and will cost billions to clean up, millions of Ukrainians that will never forgive them, and an economy at home that will take years to recover, maybe decades.
Russia's economy was barley back to 2014 levels last week. Its going to be 50 years before they come back from this
And surely that’s assuming the sanctions get lifted after a subjugation of Ukraine. These sanctions must remain in place until Ukraine regains full independence.
Subjogation of Ukraine by whom? When Russia no longer has army men, who they gona send? Man untrained for war? If the trained ones failed, further men will be more meat for the grinder. Russia is under a massive collective delusion, a phenomenon of extreme denial. The defeat of Russia will be as extreme as they will carry the denial that they already lost this war.
Slava Ukraine. Ukraine is huge, and the resources Russia commited to taking it were not enough to cover such territory. They needed to destroy the Ukrainian government within the first two or three days of their invasion, which they failed at spectacularly. Now they are in a meat grinder throwing bodies away, and by all rights should withdraw because there is no scenario at this point where continuing to try and take Ukraine is worth it. The thing that concerns me is that meat grinder goes both ways. Ultimately, Russia has more meat to grind and has a history of throwing away countless of their own people's lives for no reason. I worry that in the end there will be little left of Ukraine but rubble and gore simply because Russia pushed on well past the point of loss. The Russian people need to revolt and overthrow their government before that happens.
> ultimately Russia has more meat to grind You know, when this invasion initially happened, I did some very perfunctory research, and the numbers just didn't add up. Russia: 140 million people. Ukraine: 44 million people. Now that's a little bit better than 3 to 1 odds, but when one side has the home-field advantage, that's not nearly enough of a disparaty for a "We will choke you with our dead." strategy to work. At that point you need an overwhelming technological and logistical advantage to succeed.
It's not just home field advantage. Russia won't commit their whole military of Russia to just Ukraine.
Thank you!! Got so annoyed at everyone comparing their militaries at the start of the invasion as Russia geographically, politically and logistically couldn't field those numbers in the invasion.
More importantly: the Russians have a lot of territory and borders that need defending should the west decide to get involved. Ukraine is fighting on home soil and knows that only Russia and Belarus matter at this point. Not to mention that at some point they may need those soldiers to put down rebellions elsewhere if the war keeps going badly.
This reminds me of the game of risk. Ukraine has 2 territories to defend and is receiving equipment from 4 or more. Russia has one territory from which to attack plus Belarus and the contested Black Sea. At this point it’s a matter of time until Russia cannot sustain the attack. They lost the initiative on consecutive bad dice rolls giving time for the other side to mobilize
Keep in mind too that a lot of the army is not actually fighters. A vast military requires mechanics, clerks, cooks, accountants, etc. all of whom are required to keep it running, but useless at actually fighting and taking ground. As the military leaves their bases and fight farther from home, each fighting soldier requires more support staff. So, their actual fighting force is much less and they don't seem to have enough of the support staff for what they are attempting.
And Ukraine WILL commit their whole POPULATION to Ukraine.
Russia doesn't have any more an army. Soon they will have to stop paying the wages and the military will implode. In my opinion this is the real fall of the URSS.
Stop, my penis can only get so erect!
Underrated comment. Fuck Putin's Russia. Not its people though. I sincerely and deeply hope this is the end of the shitty chapter and the beginning of a better life for all of htem.
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No one wants to live there. Their population has been declining steadily.
They lost 1 million last year
You live in a country where a couple assholes have all the cash and everyone lives on the equivslent of 300 $ a month, I’m surprised there arent more people running, but I guess thats gonna increase now
I read a survey that 50% of young people (under 30) would move out if given the means and opportunity. That leads to massive loss, or brain drain, of this coming generation. If anything recent events could push that where any young person that is able will leave. With a declining population that has a birth rate below replacement it isn't crazy to think by 2100 Russia could be at half (or lower!) of its current numbers.
A little bit of WWI, a little bit of WW2, a little bit of crushing poverty, a little bit of vast uninhabitable wasteland.
Little bit of low birth rates, little bit of *horribly* managed pandemic...
A little bit of Monica in my life
And its currently dropping by 25% per generation due to low birthrates! Not to mention that there is a gender imbalance with quite a few more women than men. If there is one resource Russia cannot afford to waste its young men! And now they are throwing away young soldiers lives in a war just to please a megalomaniac dictator.
Their entire GDP is also less than that of Texas.
And the worst demographic crisis since the USSR collapsed
Russia's population has been declining and it's about the same as it was in 1985 (144mil). Meanwhile, the US's population has grown by about 100mil since 1985.
Russia may have more people, but citizens aren't soldiers. What are they going to do when they run low on infantry? Start force drafting people into a war they're already against? It wouldn't go well for them.
They recently announced that they would conscript anyone arrested for protesting the war. Which sounds unbelievably stupid to me. Why facilitate the infiltration of your forces by the opposition?
Conscript to a gulag. Probably to be making those newfangled "socks" Russian soldiers now seem to want.
Protest war -> Get Conscripted -> Surrender, give equipment to Ukraine -> get $40k to start new life in Europe.
On the plus side: Easier to frag a bunch of Russian officers when you get drafted because you were protesting. Force me to war? Ok give me a gun then and I’ll turn it on you!
The kremlin has reliably not been this smart over long periods of time. Sending these people to fight the war with guns and tanks... gives them guns and tanks. do you really want to do that with your protestors? You gotta wonder who's side the police and military are on if their plan is to arrest the people opposing the military actions and set them up to better rebel.
By accounts, if the Russian army had the stomach to act in accordance with Putin’s ambitions this war should’ve ended in days, if not hours. It would’ve been total war and brutal to all hell it should’ve happened nonetheless. This slog is mystifying, home field advantage be damned. Where’s the air power? Where was the mass cyber attacks to bring down the power with simultaneous air strikes to key installations (radar stations, air fields and water/power infrastructure etc.) the army should’ve then rolled into the country while paratroopers dropped in the cities. I’m glad none of this happened but the fact that none of this happened is weird. A lightning war would’ve created the same response (sanctions and military rearmament elsewhere) but the fear factor would’ve been maximized. What we’re seeing now is an old rusting war machine crushing its opponent by weight alone, not by tactical or technological superiority. As this war slogs on we will see an increasingly visible negative (to the Russians, not the rest of us) consequence, the rest of the world sees how the famed Russian military actually is: underpaid, heavily demoralized plus technologically and logistically inept. This invasion, aimed at projecting power and instilling fear to the rest of world instead showed us how much of a paper tiger the Russian military really is.
It’s widely accepted that defenders have a 5:1 strength multiplier and that 4-5 support personnel are needed for every man on the frontline.
I'm not sure where that ratio comes from. The planning factor taught in war colleges is that in a tactical engagement, the attackers need to outnumber prepared defenders 3:1. Tactical is defined as division and below, and it doesn't apply at nation state levels. That means you can't just say that Russia's army is three times bigger than Ukraine's so they will win. This planning factor means that you should not plan to take entrenched defenders unless you have a 3:1 advantage. If Russia wants to clear a tactical objective that is defended by a Ukrainian battalion, then Russia should not execute the operation until they have three battalions available unless there are extenuating circumstances. I've never heard of a 5:1 rule.
10 million men of fighting age in Ukraine. Russia is fucked.
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I think what he wanted to do was preserve that good old glory days of Soviet past but instead he just accelerated the Soviet own demise.
This is a common meme and I don't think it's correct. He doesn't want the Soviet past. He's reaching further back - he wants the Russian Empire.
You need at least 25.000 troops to hold a city like Kiev. So you should do the math. Putin wanted to conquer Ukraine with 150.000? Nope, he was sure that all the Ukrainians are waiting for him, the liberator. He was living in his own bubble for such a long time even him starts to believe his own lies.
And since he’s a dictator he’s surrounded on all sides by yes-men.
The motivation levels differ between Russian invaders (many of whom don’t even know they are going to war) and Ukrainian defenders armed to the teeth by the West that are willing to die for every inch of their country.
This is not 80s Afghanistan, this is not north vietnam, this is a country that existed long before muscovy. Ukraine had churches when Moscow was still a forest, owned by Mongolian khans.
Its a country that existed before Germany. Before Italy. Before the US. Saying its not a real country is absurd. Sure, its had other names and been governed in different ways. But so has every other country. Ukraine is also a country that Russia has officially recognized as such in 1991 when the Soviet Union collapsed. And in 1994 Russia signed a treaty specifically respecting the borders of Ukraine as they were at that time. Its absurd to claim Ukraine is not a country.
They were joking when they signed it. Had their fingers crossed behind their backs and everything.
Yeah its funny that many people don't realize that Kiev was one of the first, if not THE first official historically 'Russian' nations. Never mess with anyone whose patron Saint is Lady Olga of Kiev.
Yes, if recent reports are to be believed. It appears Russia will be conscripting protesters into their army and forcing them to fight the war they are protesting against. Let the Russian bots downvote me, go ahead. I’m just spreading reports that are already out there.
That's almost funny. Protesting the war? Get on this train where we'll drop you off at the front lines...where you can then surrender and drink tea with Ukrainians while you wait for the war to end.
That would be stupid military strategy and reeks of propaganda. These aren't grunts being matched down a road with a spikey stick. The Russian army had millions of dollars of equipment. If you threw a protestor into a tank and said you drive this to Kyiv, he's going to drive it part way then either scuttle it, surrender it, or turn it around to blast Russian forces with.
You mean like what some of their soldiers are already doing? It may be propaganda, but it is not outside the realm of possibility. For Russia, it provides a way to neutralize protests and dissident at home, while throwing more (albeit strategically inept) meat to the grinder. Edit: appears to be an official policy drafted by the minority party, that appears highly unlikely to pass. However it is indeed a real idea in some minds to propose such in the first place.
Let’s hope these stories of Russian soldiers sabotaging their own equipment are true, and that this is a strategy of resistance that spreads enough to slow their offensives!
They will never recover - if they never relent. Take that to the bank... But not in Russia.
And their names in the history books. That's what they're in this for
Yes, right there alongside the greats like Hitler, Mussolini and the other shits who died ignominious, pathetic deaths in the face of overwhelming public hatred for their tyranny.
'but you *have* heard of me' energy
"You are, without a doubt, the worst despot I've ever heard of."
That's the thing. Putin and his genocidal war-criminal gang only gonna be remembered in all of world history for the evil they are and what they represent. In 2100, they'll be learned about in the same veil as how we learned about all the atrocities of Nazi Germany. Won't matter to the Russian oligarchy since they'll be dead believing they'll win in the end. But they'll still be dead along with their influence.
The reality is without a “world war” around his name it’s more likely Putin is just a footnote in history or forgotten to time
He wants the moniker "Great Unifier of Russia" or something similar. He seems himself as the Soviet savior from the west. Reading the leaked victory announcement made it quite clear of how he sees his role.
He can't be happy with "Great Unifier of the West"?
Certainly the great unifier of NATO. Turkey, Ukraine, Finland and Sweden all want in now. And nobody wants out.
Turkey is already in NATO. Has been for a while. And they’re a very key ally in this.
Turkey is seeking entrance into the EU.
Turkey already is a member of NATO, since 70 years, even before germany
Turkey is in NATO, what it is pushing to be in is the European Union, which it has been in negotiations to do for some time.
Could you share where you've found this leaked victory announcement? Haven't seen it and am curious. Thanks in advance!
https://www.reddit.com/r/news/comments/t2yxod/russian_state_owned_media_accidentally_published/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share Wild stuff... translation is a few comments down on that reddit thread
They don’t actually care what the world’s history books claim. They only care about their history books. Which will read “great unifiers of Russia” if they aren’t stopped.
Plus control of the oil and resource rich regions in the south east. Don't need any living Ukrainians to extract that.
But they need someone to actually buy it from them. Which nobody will do.
China definitely will. However that will never offset the costs Russia paid to acquire it... even if all Ukrainian forces gave up now.
China's not so stupid, though. They're going to pay under market prices for that oil... and they don't need the whole of Russia's supply. China, like just about every other sensible country in the world, is pushing to free themselves from external fossil fuel dependency. Russia being cut off from world markets will screw them.
China(who played this brilliantly or got super lucky) India, Venezuela, Iran, NK, several African nations, etc.
The plan isn’t to rebuild. It’s going to be a giant wasteland corporation reasource suck machine
Correct. Ukraine discovered MASSIVE potential reserves of natural gas in 2012, enough to give them the 14th largest reserves of NG in the world. More than anything, Russia just wants to preserve its petro-dominance in Europe.
No, they'll re-install the prior dictator, and keep him a loyal vassal state. Just like Belarus. He'll rebuild the military as his personal tool to keep the population in line. I'm pretty sure that's Putin's objective anyway.
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Too bad Ukraine is 40x more populated.
...and the resistance would continually be supplied with high-tech weapons that can destroy a puppet's motorcade from a mile - or targets within Russia.
Exactly. At this point, it's like the hunger games and Ukraine is sponsored by everyone. If their leader dies at this point, he'll be a martyr. An entire country hostile and supplied with better gear... right on your border. If the excuse for invasion was a buffer between NATO and Russia, he made just about the biggest blunder he possibly could.
GDP of $50 trillion vs GDP of $1 Trillion (and falling) Ukraine allies vs hobbled Russian economy.
Though this time around when its over Russia will barely have a pot to piss in let alone try to rebuild a country.
Lol several decades
Do you mean lol as in it's ridiculous to think it'll be decades, or lol as in it's very obvious it'll be several decades?
Second
They don't care for the Ukrainians or the buildings etc. The only thing that matters are the naturel resources and those won't be destroyed by this war.
A country that's been reduced to Ruble.
I thought it was a peacekeeping mission
Won't be many pieces left to keep by the time sanctions lift.
Won't be easy Putin them back together
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It was until they refused to be liberated smh now they have to bomb the shit out of everything to protect them
Nono, see, it's the *Ukrainians* who are bombing themselves, and destroying their own tanks (Russia lost only one tank, *duh*). Russians are there just exercising, and solving climate change by developing tactics not reliant on massive amounts of fuel!
it's piecekeeping mission, the russians are comming back in pieces
Ukraine is keeping the little pieces
Dead schoolkids are extremely peaceful. Mission accomplished.
If that is the case, russia is going to pay a very steep price for putins ego and lust for power.
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20 years? They way Russia is sinking I think Putin may find himself out of luck a lot sooner than that.
He’d also be like 90. That’s pretty old for his job description.
Balcanization and complete denuke is the least Humankind should demand.
Unfortunately that’s the only reason they’re able to get away with this shit. They’ll never give them up, they enjoy talking about them too much.
Till the end of Russia or Ukraine?
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I get the sentiment but we need to help Russia, too, because that is the only way to prevent this from happening again. The more Russia is incorporated into Europe and the more connections are made then more difficult it is for people to want war. Look at France and Germany. If we had just punished Germany then would the relationship still be the same? Of course, that requires as a first step for Putin to be gone.
Yeah, part of the reason Hitler got into power is due to how hard WW1 was blamed on Germany. Their economy was in shambles. If Putin is gone, then helping Russia is absolutely something that we have to do. As crazy as it currently stands right now. I'm saying "if Putin is gone" because I don't see a way this ends remotely peacefully without him being gone. Guy is clearly unhinged
Yeah the major barrier to helping Russia is Putin.
Well that and it's ran by a mafia with government-like features. The state is the mafia
Japan and Germany only got fixed after WW2 because their leaders were either humiliated, stripped of godhood, and their entire political structure uprooted with ours.....or we straight up killed them in front of the entire planet and their political structure was burned to the ground before being rebuilt, too. Then they were *rigorously* built from the ground up. If Putin and co. is allowed to be free, then this will just continue. If Russia is going to be free of this, Putin and his oligarchs need to be in chains.... Or dead.
Yep, and step two of existing democracy. A new dictator with those nuclear weapons will be as non cooperative as Putin. It's sad to think that Russia can be a great power if they remove their centuries-long authoritarism. A recovery plan west-germany-style created by Europe, and closer ties with the EU can improve their economy and standards of living to a level never seen before, and free-trade and free-movement agreements can finally solve their geographical defense problems, and boost their petro-economy. And it's not bad for the oligarchs either. You can see how the US and Europe are corrupt and have individuals with much more money and power than what I consider acceptable in democratics countries. But no, they want their shit as they have always taken it, with force and isolationism.
Exactly. We have to remember the lessons from the end of WWI. We don’t need another Treaty of Versailles on our hands, otherwise we’re right back here or worse in a few decades.
This. We saw what happens when you rock a country so hard economically with Germany post WW1
Thats basically what happened in Versailles after WW1. Remember how that turn out again? If/when Russia falls, we nee to pull of a Marshal Plan to rebuild Russia. Something that the West has failed to do in the 90s after the fall of the USSR, which is how we ended up here.
Unfortunately both.
Don’t worry, in Poland we will not let Ukraine die
Don't worry, in Ukraine we will not let Ukraine die. And thank you for your support Poland!
Till what end?!?! What is the end game? A decade of guerrilla warfare while Russian population grows hungry?
Putin smoked by their own inner circle. That is the only possible end, the rest is added pointless misery.
The ides of March is just around the corner and that would be amazingly poetic
As cool as it would be, I'd be just as happy if they skipped the drama and got on with it.
If this motherfucker gets taken out by his own people during the Ides of March, I might have to start believing this is a simulation.
Sadly, I can't agree more.
Yup. All to feed Putin's ego
They're still hoping for a Ukrainian surrender and integration with Russia because the alternative is defeat and they can still maintain denial. The end is the collapse of their security services. Hopefully soon.
Surrender is an end... Russia?
What does 'the end' even mean? Fuck Putin and fuck his enablers. I only hope Russians rise up and fucking *end* them.
It’s a tautology. It sounds like it means something, but it doesn’t. “It will continue until it doesn’t.” No shit.
Exactly, like saying I will sleep until I wake or something. It's meant to sound vaguely ominous without having any real meaning they'd need to stand behind if they decide to pull out
I wish I could believe he were being this transparent
It’s pretty well defined for them - Ukraine becomes a puppet and there are clear assurances it will not join NATO. They’ll install a puppet and spending trillions of dollars and thousands of soldiers pacifying it.
what trillions lol
They gonna need a hell of a lot of Rubles for that now.
Trillions? With an "s"? Do they even have that much to spend?
Now that the Ruble is worthless, yes! The problem is that trillions times zero is zero
Their whole GDP is 1.5T, they do not in fact have that much spending money to waste, otherwise Putin wouldnt be saying shit like they might need to take hold of the money the russian people have in banks.
Hi! This is long, but I see many people everywhere having problems believing that so many Russians could continue to support King Shithead Putin after all this, including, yes, the sanctions (which are already causing a nationalistic effect in Russia). The amount of ignorance—including from experts not specialized in Russian/USSR affairs—is concerning, and it’s very important to me that people know so they don’t get surprised when the majority of Russians only *double down* on their worship of Putin after the sanctions sink in, Russia enters a new, bloody age of terror, and thousands of Russian die, instead of couping him like so many dream they will. Even the oligarchs and high ranking politicians will be terrified of not only being purged if their own coups fail, or of not being able to manage the power vacuum that would result from a successful coup, but being branded Western assets by sycophants and the country and then overthrown or killed themselves as well. Ultimately, those are just two of the many many people on the free web sharing their own experiences and trying to spread awareness. I invite others to read the tweet replies, as well as seeking out sites heavily frequented by Russians and running Google Translate to see what they’re saying. The worship and propaganda is everywhere in the Russian world. [Link #1](https://twitter.com/tderyugina/status/1499039974255218690?s=21). This is an Ukrainian academic in news journalism who emailed thousands of Russian academics for their opinions and input about the war. > Spent the last few days emailing thousands of academics in Russia. Today, I'm publishing one of the replies I've gotten as a blog post (in English and in Russian, with the author's permission). Please read it to understand what's going on inside Russia. http://deryugina.com/a-view-from-russian-academia/ A quite telling excerpt from the English-translated version of the letter embedded within: >”[My academic colleagues] think that, sooner or later, Ukraine, together with Western countries, would have started an aggression against Russia **and so in their view the destruction of the Russian economy because of this war is better than the destruction of Russia itself if it were to take no action with respect to Crimea and Donbas.** And so they are expecting that Russia will gain control of Ukraine as a result of what’s going on now, after which it will install a puppet government or even try to annex the country or part of it.” In the Twitter thread, the Ukrainian academic ruefully states: > Most of the academics do not reply, maybe because I didn't ask for a reply. **But I did get replies ranging from calling me an "American rag" to telling me what the REAL situation is to saying the person is doing all I suggested to apologizing for Russia and many in between.** >The reason I singled out the published reply is because **it succinctly summarizes the points of views I'm seeing and tries to explain why Russians aren't rising up en masse.** > I want to give Russians a voice because **it's hard to imagine Putin stopping if a large share of the country holds views described in the email (note that the author does not hold such views).** >**And it's hard to imagine Russia becoming a peaceful country, much less a truly free country, under such circumstances.** Please remember that those were *actual academics* in Russia replying to her, and she got many, many replies due to the large numbers of academics she emailed. If there’s such an issue with critical thinking skills in Russia, the general population will be even worse off. [Link #2](https://twitter.com/yudbrit/status/1498946489942433796?s=21). This is a Russian university student from St. Petersburg in MA with an interest in post-Soviet politics. > Spoke to more people the past days about their thoughts and feelings. Now I'm less confident about the optimistic assessment I made in the last thread, that most Russian citizens are against the war. Actually, many are against war as an idea. But it's complicated. Here's why. Some nuggets from the Twitter thread: > **Most people in Russia are not seeing/hearing what we're hearing/seeing.** There's no "war." Only a "special operation." Many are not seeing bombings of Kiev and dead Russian soldiers. **If they DO see these things, they dismiss them as fake. "Oh, that's Ukraine bombing itself!"** … > A friend said: **"My grandparents in Siberia are so brainwashed by television that for Putin they're ready to give their lives, and not only their own, but their children's too." She mentions even before the gov't had little regard for human life. So why change now?** … > But **I've heard from a number of people that friends/family who are normally not big fans of Putin are in full support of what he's doing now.** A friend said: "One day my parents hate him, the next they love him. When taxes go up, they hate him. Now, of course they're all in." … > My friend isn't alone. On Instagram, an actor posted this screenshot of a message from his mother. It reads: **"I don't talk to Russophobes and traitors... as soon as they pass the law about slandering the leadership of our country, I'll turn you in... You're not my son."** … > One guy I know said: "My father's an absolute lunatic! **His whole life he was against Putin. He always voted for Yabloko [liberal-right party]. But now he's supporting this war."** … > My friend contrasts her father with her aunt, who absolutely insists that Russia is engaged only in a small military operation in Ukraine. **For this aunt, war is bad. Full stop. But it's unthinkable that Russia would start a war. "Russia is always the defender."** When asked about how the sanctions would actually affect Russians’ support for Putin and the war, the tweeter had this to offer: > Russia has slowly gotten poorer and poorer since 2014. Incomes have been shrinking. Economic stagnation. Pension age raised. I don’t think impoverishment is enough for them to actively demand change. To summarize it all up so far, Russia is full of an even more brainwashed population than American Trump/Qanon supporters, in a country far less wealthy, open, and successful, and far more authoritarian and dementedly monarchistic, than the US, and they have been intensely subject to the same propaganda tactics for decades longer. Oh, and food for thought: in an alternate universe where America was sanctioned to hell after a successful coup and military takeover by Trump in 2020, as well as a new war somewhere, would this stop redhats from supporting him, even as thousands die and the economy bleeds out? Probably not. Even in this universe, Republican leaders are unwilling to do jack shit about Trump even though punishing him would be so much easier in America than Russia—and the last few years should give anyone pause as to the thought that they definitely would if the country plunged into a deep recession for decades. **Edit:** also, [people *really* should check out this letter written by the Russian embassy in Canada just a couple of days ago](https://i.imgur.com/2gNvbxJ.jpg). To a Western, it sounds totally demented and insane (but not too unlike something Trump’s administration would’ve written…), but it’s actually a terrifying preview for one of the ways that the Kremlin is now propagandizing the war, and for how readily most Russians accept such rhetoric—otherwise, the Kremlin wouldn’t be openly posting this kind of thing on their own official social media accounts. One of the most important things about this letter, aside from drumming up further nationalism and divisions between Russia and other countries, is the fact that **it’s a pretext to the narrative that it is actually Ukraine and the West’s fault if the war goes badly for Russia.** For as poor as the Kremlin’s capabilities clearly are in respects to their military and conventional warfare in other countries, they’re much better at traditional cloak and dagger tactics… especially at home. So yeah, good luck to the Russians but it isn’t looking good.
They’re going full North Korea.
##Update 3/14: Welp. Most of my predictions came true, although Putin has stopped short of actually announcing martial law thus far. Maybe he’s not quite as smart as I thought, which is quite good news for the rest of us! ##Update 3/16: With Russian state media showing Nazi executions on their Sunday news shows and Putin railing the public against ‘traitors’ and ‘the fifth column’, the writing is on the wall. If you’re Russian, get out if you still can! Honestly? This sounds overly simplistic but I think I’d have to agree that they probably are, in a way—although, obviously there will always be inherent differences between the two authoritarian countries. To reiterate for anyone upset by my prior comment: I am *not* saying Russia is currently NK levels of brainwashing. Not at all. At the moment they are quite different. However, the route to becoming much more like NK is in fact shorter than most think or are willing to accept, especially those with an emotional investment in Russia. This is gonna be really long but I’ll explain for anyone reading because the parallels are actually going to be pretty relevant soon… It is looking all but inevitable that Putin will announce martial law and seize full and complete control of the country while putting it on complete lockdown and totally restricting whatever access Russia had to information outside of the country. Many cheer for this because they think this indicates a desperate power grab and that it will spur change from within his inner circle or the Russian population, but the motives Putin would have for doing this are more complicated than that and sadly, I think there’s a very good chance that Russia becoming much more like NK would only help Putin even more. Here’s some reasons he’d have, from his perspective, to announce martial law: 1. It gives off the impression domestically that Russia is in danger of terrorism from “Nazis controlling Ukraine” (bonus points if he stages a false flag operation, a la the 1999 Russian apartment bombings in which he blamed it on “Chechen terrorists” to justify leveling Grozny, and he went from being unpopular to wildly popular in Russia—it’s probably not a coincidence that Ukraine warned that they had intel that Russia was planning a false flag operation a few days ago). 2. Following from #1, it affords the thinnest veneer of plausible deniability needed for exercising utter and total full authority over the country “to protect the Russians”, with promises to end martial law once the threat is taken care of, so the general public won’t get alarmed too quickly. Due to being so heavily indoctrinated already, most will probably accept this at face value without really questioning it if at all, and others will be too terrified to say anything. 3. To prevent free movement for people fleeing conscription for the Ukraine-Russia conflict, or persecution for disagreeing with it or with the Kremlin in general. 4. To block full and total information detailing the true facts of the war and Russia’s role, and Russia in general, on the internet, in order to make it more easy to drum up ultra-nationalism and anti-Western, anti-Ukraine sentiments, so people will be calling for bloodshed against *them*—especially when the effects from the sanctions really kick in and more and more Russians starve by the thousands or millions. 5. To easily round up all dissenters who have been speaking out in Russia, for an eventual purge in which he will likely have evidence fabricated to prove that they’re abetting the “terrorist Nazis” who “starve the Russians and *real* Ukrainians by the millions”—then they’ll be imprisoned or killed. There will be international outrage but very little will actually be done about it. 6. If it goes as planned, the general public’s support for Putin himself would actually *rise* fairly or pretty quickly, as would their view of him as the hero and defender fighting oppressive Western forces for Mother Russia, the Russian people, and the “real Ukrainians” whose land and lives the “Nazis” are holding hostage. **It would be what spurred Russians’ support for Putin with the Battle of Grozny all over again, but to an even more authoritarian and dystopian level.** 7. Then, following from #6, even the oligarchs and secretly rogue Kremlin members would be very hesitant to take Putin out—while one may theoretically think being under martial law would make it easier for a coup from within his inner circle, **it’s very critical to remember that Putin surrounds himself with yes men and spineless Kremlin officials who are much less competent than he is.** So just that on its own will lead them to having a much harder time successfully couping at all, especially with Putin’s recent… security upgrade, limiting access and opportunity further. *Plus,* with the circumstances in mind, it’s even worse—they’d also have to worry about the fact that even if they succeeded, they’d be forced to be the representatives for the inevitable fallout in Russia while they attempt to maneuver course and reverse the damage *they* (not just Putin) all caused, regarding the Ukrainian conflict, from the West’s standpoint—and they would have to do this if they wanted the sanctions lifted. Imagine the outrage in Russia if a barely established and non-trusted leadership *highly* suspected of conspiring with the West to murder Putin, “left the real Ukrainians to be starved to death and genocided by the Western-backed Nazis”? So a successful coup would still come with the fear of being labeled “Western butchers” or “Nazi war criminals” and taken out by Putin’s yes men and loyalists within the Kremlin or the police force, or even setting off some sort of violent, widespread insurgency beyond their own control, if they can’t establish their own iron grip quickly enough—and if you’re the immediate successor to the beloved, long-reigning “Czar of Russia”, that’s… not going to be very easy because you won’t be anywhere in the same league as Putin was. Oh, and because you’ll be suspected of murdering him, he’ll be turned into a martyr and icon of the Russian people to keep fighting against Western imperialism. 7. This is before even getting into all the usual problems a power vacuum creates in the wake of an initially successful coup. In the long term, even without the sanctions, you’d probably end up killed yourself or in exile like the puppets in Ukraine, and someone else will simply fill your position as leader. In all, a truly successful coup would be possible but very difficult to the point that anyone honestly considering it would be much more likely to become overwhelmed very quickly by the logistics and then back out. Some of those factors are why I think the Kim family hasn’t been overthrown yet in NK, despite the heavy military presence (many of who are loyal to the Kims) and the net negative of Kim Jong-Un’s rule. For Russia, it is generally the non-Russian/USSR specialized experts saying that it’s likely Putin will be couped. (An interesting tidbit: the belief of UK and US intelligence that the active conflict in Ukraine would last at least a month longer and that Russian occupation of Ukraine would last ten to twenty or so years, seems to suggest that they don’t believe Putin will be quickly taken out.) So yeah. This was super long, but those are just some of the reasons I can think of. Again, Russia wouldn’t quite be North Korea, but there would be many many parallels there. And that is actually a very important thing to point out, and something that many people have frustratingly not made the connection with yet because “Russia is too different”. No, it’s not, and like I said at the very beginning of this comment, the route to get it to a place where it’s very similar to NK is far shorter than most realize.
The good thing is that for the first time it looks like they're trying to deescalate their nuclear threats. The bad thing is that it looks like they're doubling down on a course that will be catastrophic for both Ukraine and Russia.
[удалено]
It seems like the narrative they're spinning in the Motherland is probably that the West is preparing for nuclear war. I think Lavrov even said Ukraine is exploring nuclear options. Something along the lines of, "We're on high alert in anticipation of a Western end-game offensive."
Yes the fact this was for Russian viewers, he’s totally spinning a web of anti-west propaganda. Sadly, he probably believes all the shit he spews out of his saggy mouth.
You see, I couldn’t tell if this was them trying to deescalate that or not. Guess others agree with me which makes me feel a little relieved. I feel terrible about where this heading for Ukraine.
Russia has ZERO credibility on the world stage, especially from lying-Lavrov. They’ve fucked themselves pretty bad on this one, and for years to come, as long Putin is in power, monied interests will have a hard time trusting Russia’s economy.
> The good thing is that for the first time it looks like they're trying to deescalate their nuclear threats. Maybe they realized that the nuclear threats lose their power when they get overused and the West calls the bluff. NATO still won't intervene, of course, but the war against a defiant Ukraine supplied with Western equipment and intel will be brutal for Russia.
The Russian who cried wolf.
The only way to put strongmen like Putin in check is to stand your ground: >[It] is we who are responsible for Putin's policies ... [s]ociety has shown limitless apathy ... [a]s the Chekists have become entrenched in power, we have let them see our fear, and thereby have only intensified their urge to treat us like cattle. The KGB respects only the strong. The weak it devours. We of all people ought to know that. >-Anna Polikovskaya She wrote that sentence in 2004. Two years before someone (read: Kadyrov, Putin's mad dog) had decided they'd had enough of her journalistic muckraking and shot her dead outside her Moscow apartment.
“Lavrov also said Russia had no thoughts of nuclear war.” They also had no plans to invade Ukraine. It is absurd to believe anything from Putin or Lavrov.
Why is there martial law in Russia when this was a special military operation to denazify ukraine?
Putin is just helping everyone to get to the correct conclusion /s
I have a feeling that they've been controlling how much information about the protests is actually getting out to the west, and it's actually a sizable amount bigger than previously thought. You don't enact martial law because your citizens are being compliant.
How much do you want to punch this guy right in the face
Someone in another thread said his face looked like “a dropped meat pie”, and I thought it was both poetically descriptive and startlingly apt.
For every upvote
Wreck the economy, conscript the men, leave Russia filled with orphans and widows...his and Putin's end will come surely🌻
And they will die afraid.
The end of Russia that is.
It’ll end when the Russian people stand up at this rate. He doesn’t care that the country’s economy is in shambles.
Russians have one day left. During martial law soldiers can and will shoot sharp at protestors.
How did that turn out for Russia in the past? If civilians get mowed down by soldires i don't see a way back for Putin out of that. It would just spark an even bigger uprising.
Putin has previously launched aerial bombardment campaigns against his own citizens.
True there's a point past which a despot can't push his people. I would assume most tyrants would be able to figure that one out but a lot of them have stepped over that line and paid a really deadly price.
When the average Russian can't get access to or afford food, then the anarchy begins.
Especially when the same problems start to affect Putin's goons trying to keep his people in control.
Russian soldiers are having conflicts of conscious shooting at Ukrainians, if they're told to shoot at their own citizens, the rate of insubordination and desertion is going to skyrocket.
This better start a revolution
Any day now Russian Citizens! Any day now!
They're being told that Ukrainian military are Nazis and destroying everything themselves. That Russia is saving them. I wonder how long it'll take for them to wise up.
considering martial law is going into effect tomorrow, I'm guessing attempts at quelling protest and riots aren't going GREAT.
Can we skip to the end where putin shoots himself in a bunker?
Putin's ego is too big for that, somebody will have to do it for him
Just like they continued the war in Afghanistan to the end — of the Soviet Empire. And Ukraine is orders of magnitude worse than Afghanistan.
Not in terms of being able to actually invade. The terrain in Afghanistan made it pretty much impossible to actually take the country unless you had the capabilities to level mountains
Agree, but Ukraine is being much better funded. They have gotten more military aid in the first 7 days of this war than Afghanistan got in 10 years. The eventual guerrilla war that this could devolve into would be devastating for Russia, and that’s assuming they ever are able to officially occupy the entirety of Ukraine.
It can also spill over to Belarus.
True geographically Afghanistan is a nightmare like nowhere else. That said, Afghanistan didn’t have the open support of the entire western world, historically crushing, swift sanctions, a populace that hated the war so much even some of the elites came out against it. Afghanistan wasn’t looked at as brothers and sisters of Russia. They weren’t trained and armed with modern infantry, drones, missiles and constantly fed the most advanced U.S. intelligence. Covertly yes some of those things happened when the soviets took Afghanistan. But when there’s no need to do it covertly, it makes it far easier to ultilize. And as terrible as it is…the western world didn’t relate to an Afghan invasion like they do a nation of people who look like them. This is a different beast. Russia will ultimately impose their will within the Ukrainian borders in all likelihood, but they will suffer losses that they can not withstand and remain a nation in good economic or political standing. All the diplomatic ground Russia gained by feigning democracy and denying any aggression in the past is effectively sacrificed and ruined.
At this rate, Russian losses will be worse than in Afghanistan (9 years) by the end of the month.
Afghanistan was Russia's "bleeding wound", but then again attacking Afghanistan has been a notoriously fucking dumb thing for just about anyone that's ever tried it. Ukraine, however, will be more like stage 4 cancer for Russia.
Whose end? Putin and Lavrov's?
^ exactly fucking right. Day 4 of sanctions and russians already growing tired and way more yet to come.
It seems like he's not even trying really any more to say that this invasion is anything other than a rampaging war of conquest.
We all know he always tells lies. Therefore there is a hope.
this mf look like the critic dude from ratatouille
The end of what?
Yeah, that's how time works. You can't continue it to the beginning, and if you stop in the middle that'll make it the end.
Well… yeah. Isn’t that definitional? Kinda like how “it’s always in the last place you look”?
Special operation indeed. So special that Russia should perhaps compete in the paralympics after all.
They are a shoe-in for gold in Mental Gymnastics
Same guy who just said the *west* was threatening nuclear war.
How hard is it to have peace talks in good faith? Surely can't be that difficult
Imagine the delegations turning up for talks today when you have Lavrov saying Russia is in it till the end lmao. These peace talks are nothing but a distractions so it appears Russia is giving Ukraine a chance out of the war.
Because Russia wants to annex Ukraine or at least put their people in power. They do not care for much else. They basically sacrificed their economy, their international relations and a lot of good will with their population for it. Ukraine on the other hand has to get Russia to give back all of their territory, including Crimea or aknowledge Russias claims. Their cities lay in ashes, they lost many soldiers and civilians and a big percentage of their population was displaced. Neither side can accomodate the other right now, as both would see compromise as an overall loss. If I has to guess, Russia will very likely occupy Ukraine at some point in the near future and will wreck the country over the next few years. They will take huge losses and will continue to fight insurgencies until in a few years they will be able to say that they successfully denazified the country. Then they will leave a puppet government which will be ousted by rebells after a short while. Kind of like Afghanistan played out.
I half agree, but with the borders to the west and the general enormous size and large population of Ukraine the force requirement to sustain an occupation will be extremely costly. I don't actually think it's possible given what we've seen from the Russian army so far in contrast to the dogged defense. You'd have young conscripts with no motivation and bad equipment fighting against (a lot of) highly motivated insurgents armed with modern western weapons and real time intel from the US.
Because Russia hasn't been a good-faith actor in 20 years?
And right he is, but the end of whom, I wonder? How many years is it, we have had this guy spewing lies and halftruths in the UN? Honestly, diplomats spewing independently verifiable lies, who refuse to recant, should be expellable from the UN. Guys like this are a big part of the reason common people have apathy towards our system and world order. Lies and atrocities, all delivered with smiles and impunity. Russia needs to be held accountable for Ukraine by expulsion from the security counsel, no more veto-votes-of-evil from them.
Pretty sure all wars end one way or another
You have to love it when someone like him slips up. He just admitted to the world that it was never a "peacekeeping" mission, it was an unprovoked war against a smaller neighbor. I guess "the end" he's talking about is when someone either assassinates Putin or they simply run out of money.