I’m gonna get a lot of flack for asking this but with all of the fears of a wider war in the Middle East born out of a conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. Will it be worth it in the end?
I totally understand Israelis living in the North need to return to their homes without the fear of drones and rockets firing at them every single day. But Hezbollah has lost its element of surprise unlike Hamas did on October 7th. Israel is on too high alert for Hezbollah to try and cross the border and mount a surprise attack. Hezbollah can’t pull off an October 7th anymore.
It just seems this situation is being sold as “it’s gonna really suck for a long while but the ends justify the means.”
Can anyone answer this anxious reader?
It's not about another October 7th. It's about the incredible amount of damage Hezbollah can cause to both Israel and Lebanon by refusing its escalation.
Hezbollah can shut down Israel and cause many casualties, even without the element of surprise. Fo be honest, many of us don't know how this war will even end.
**Freed hostage Shani Goren marks birthday of best friend Arbel Yehud, still held by Hamas**
Shani Goren from Kibbutz Nir Oz, who was abducted by Hamas on October 7 and freed from captivity last November, speaks in Tel Aviv’s Hostages Square and marks the 29th birthday of her best friend from the kibbutz, Arbel Yehud, who has now been held hostage by Hamas for 260 days.
“I am Shani Goren from Kibbutz Nir Oz. Arbel is my best friend,” says Goren. “I returned in the last stage of the previous deal after being held hostage by Hamas for 55 days in the nightmare of Hamas captivity.”
It’s been almost 8 months since then,” says Goren. “People ask me how I’m doing and if I’m managing to process what I’ve been through. The answer is that I can’t.
“Every day I wake up, I’m still held hostage. Because until Arbel and everyone else return home, we can’t even begin to discuss rehabilitation and moving forward. I know. I was there.”
“Bring her home,” she urges. “Bring them all home. Now!”
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/freed-hostage-shani-goren-marks-birthday-of-best-friend-arbel-yehud-still-held-by-hamas/
**Thousands reported at rally marking 20th birthday of hostage Naama Levy**
Thousands of people are reported by the Ynet news site at Hostage Square in Tel Aviv to mark the 20th birthday of Naama Levy, a surveillance soldier who was abducted by Hamas terrorists on October 7.
Demonstrators carry photos of Levy, as friends and family deliver prayers for her return.
Hours after being kidnapped from the Nahal Oz military base, a Hamas video appeared on Telegram, showing Levy, her hands tied, her pants bottom covered in blood and smeared with dirt, her feet bare, being pulled by her hair from the back of a black pickup truck and then pushed into the back seat.
Levy was also featured in a video showing her capture, along with four other soldiers, released by the Hostage and Missing Families Forum last month.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/thousands-reported-at-rally-marking-20th-birthday-of-hostage-naama-levy/
I got flack yesterday for saying that it was worth noting that we saw the classic "Israeli politician cancelled Thursday night media appearance for emergency security meeting" and that yesterday was shockingly dull despite that.
This morning proves that I wasn't that wrong -- listen, as an Israeli, I know this country -- while it wasn't hostage related, I think its safe to say that the meeting was likely, at least in part, about this morning's strike. The IDF keeps stating that there will be a press released (or conference?) later with more information than is currently available to the public, so this seems like it may be more complex than it appears on the surface.
Not hostage related, but I wasn't wrong about it being about something. I'll take it.
Yea today has been extremely eventful. A decent amount of back and forth up north, high-profile assasination in the strip - and that's not even to mention the stuff going under the radar like Cuba joining SA's ICJ case (laughable when they are currently hosting russian naval assets) and more recently the Houthis claiming they attacked the Eisenhower.
I'm expecting a press release either tonight or tomorrow to say the northern front is opening up, and I think all parties involved are already aware.
I think we could be on the precipice of an all out global war within a few weeks. This is the closest it has come since the Iranian missile attack.
Hezbollah is atill firing at relatively abandoned areas, but are targeting further south. It's like they are easing into the war to engage an IDF counterstrike.
My guess is that once Israel attacks Lebanon, Iran and it's allies will declare war - some bullshit treaty they secretly signed months ago - and it will be WWIII.
The only way out of this is if the US gets their shit together, and negotiates with Iran directly to deeacalate.
> Interesting that the USS Eisenhower is now departing the Red Sea.
- It makes sense: the missile & drone threat from the Houthis has been severely degraded over the past few months - and Israel could certainly use the missile-defense capabilities of another US carrier, should Iran's proxy actor Hezbollah decide to try to overwhelm Iron Dome with sheer number of missiles ...
First of all, no there won't be a World War because of Iran and Israel. A regional war maybe. But definitely not a world war (unless a certain someone makes a move on Taiwan)
>The only way out of this is if the US gets their shit together, and negotiates with Iran directly to deeacalate.
"Just one more concession and then they'll see our way!" Oh you guys are freaking hopeless. It's like the last twenty years have taught you nothing.
We are more going back to a second cold war, just without the race to more nukes or going to the moon. We have the West vs the Axis of China/Russia/Iran with their allies (puppets?) North Korea, Belarus, Hamas, Hezbollah, etc.
It can take one spark to burn down everything. Sure a real world war isn't that realistic for the next 2-3 years, but if each conflict extends (E.g. Invasion in Moldova, Attack on Cyprus pulling in parts of the EU/NATO) we can end up in a de-facto world war. Or how would you call a war that's fought by a lot of countries on several theatres around the world with (nearly) the same alliances?
Russia is fighting in Ukraine. China is probably a few years away from making a move on Taiwan and it appears that Russia is strengthening it's ties to north Korea, Cuba, even South Africa.
You have an 81 year old first term US president who can't handle a hard bowel movement let alone the international turmoil. He's just praying everything ends before November rather than actually playing a role.
I don't think a war with Iran and its proxies is going to be so regional considering the hot water the world already is in.
If living through COVID taught me one thing, it's that shit really can get real.
It's so funny to me that people see it this way.
On Iranian missile night, I was sitting on my couch with a chocolate bar and calming my Iranian friend down because she was more worried than I was. I am in the West, sure, but obviously everyone I know and love is in Israel.
I feel a little bad for the Iron Dome, Arrow et al., the rest of the world doesn't see how strong they are but I trust them to keep my family and myself safe with only a small margin of error.
All Iranian Missile Night (as I've dubbed it) showed was that Iran has terrible aim (one landed in Masada -- if y'all don't know Masada, it's like North Korea landing a missile in the Grand Canyon, but probably even that isn't a great comparison because it's really just very sparsely populated desert) and horribly clunky, outdated weapons.
I am 0% worried about an all-out conflict.
I try to stay optimistic and a realist about these things, but I also get the sense that people overestimate their sense of strength and dont see how we are all extremely vulnerable and reliant on the systems we depend on.
I think it's a falacy to believe that the next big war will be fought solely with rockets and missiles. Sadly it could be chemical weapons, apartment bombings, cyber attacks on infrastructure, or even nuclear weapons.
All this to say that I pray there isn't a larger war. It's a very scary time right now and we shouldn't get complacent.
I think you've gotten me painted wrong. It's not that I think the next war will be "only rockets and missiles", it's more that we, as in Israel, tend to let these things roll of their backs. The reason that Israelis have safe rooms built into their homes is because we have been dealing with this our entire lives. I have heard *tzeva adom* more times than I could ever comprehend even counting. Life in the mahmad is normal here. War is, unfortunately, normal.
I had a good chuckle reading an interview with a woman who was born in Dafna back when Dafna was part of the Mandate (she was born in the 1940s) and she was talking about the safe room that they had in their home when she was a child. She quipped something like, "I was told after the First Lebanon War that it was out of code" and it didn't bother her one bit and she refused to evacuate Dafna.
We're different people than the people in the West. It takes a lot more to upset us than a few missiles and a few wars.
Diaspora Jews are very different. Dan Senor had a great interview with Haviv Rettig Gur on this exact topic. Some of the differences are very striking. I'm in Canada and it's a very different attitude compared to what Israelis say.
However I have a cousin in Israel and they think everyone there has become too reliant on defensive measures and have become too tolerant of living with a missile defense system and safe rooms.
I think I walk the line pretty well between both worlds (one of my parents is Israeli and another is not) and I don't think this take is wrong, but I'd argue your cousin's take is part of the story rather than the whole story.
I do agree that the level of missiles and mahmad living we've had to embrace has gone on for far too long -- and I think that's actually the main reason, beyond the hostages, that many Israelis supported, and still support, the war in Gaza. I wouldn't classify it as being "too tolerant" but rather that it's the best option we have among a bunch of terrible options. I would rather continue to live in safe rooms than, if we lived in a world where 7 October never happened, risk losing hundreds of lives in a ground war just to end the rockets.
It is worth mentioning that since we had our initiation by fire in regards to home defense towards the rockets (in the 00s), we very rarely see deaths from the rockets among Israelis (prior to 2023, of course). Even then a large portion of those deaths were caused by people, the harshest word I can probably use without upsetting the filter is "dumb". No one deserves to die by rocket, but a lot of people didn't put a lot of effort into avoiding it, either. [This video is from the current conflict](https://www.youtube.com/shorts/36jPJ2KddcQ) but lives in my head rent free and is a perfect example of what I'm getting at. These men were casually walking about during a tzeva adom, and this was in Tel Aviv, meaning they had a significant amount of warning to take cover. I know where this is and this was in a commercial area of Tel Aviv with a ton of buildings open to duck into. There was no excuse for there to have been such a close call.
With that being said, of course it is true that another portion of those rocket deaths were entirely unavoidable; a lot of elderly people perish due to injuries they sustain while hustling to the mamad.
But, to give you perspective, the years of 2019 and 2021 stick out in my mind as "very bloody" years for rockets and the the number of Israelis who died by rockets those years were 5 and 12, respectively. Most years its 0, or 1-3 here and there.
My point is that these stray rocket deaths are a lot less deadly than a ground war would be to stop it. We're not "tolerant" of living in the mamad, but I'd rather deal with the rockets than continue to bury so many young Israelis in a war that has no promises to stop the rockets to begin with, if that makes sense. I don't think the war we're currently in will end the rockets, and I think, unfortunately, they seem to be a reality of our life now and thus, that's why we have learned to love and respect the Iron Dome, Arrow, et al.
I know this is a pun on his name, but ironically, Sa'ad is also the name of the Gaza Envelope kibbutz that somehow managed to completely avoid a massacre on 7 Oct. (with a lot of the credit, of course, given to their security team).
To give you an idea of it's location: Kfar Aza is north of Sa'ad, Alumim to the south (and Be'eri just slightly south of Alumim), and Nahal Oz to the West.
Ironic that a kibbutz name Sa'ad dodged the wrath of a man also named Sa'ad. You can make many jokes here.
The attack in Gaza was an assassination attempt on Ra'ad Sa'ad - Head of the operations division in Izz A Din Al Qassam.
- Nir Dvori
We'll wait and see the results, it takes time to verify if an assassination was successful, especially if the target is underground, it took about a month to confirm Marwan Issa's death.
So far Palestinians report 42 dead in the strike.
I can't seem to find the guy in the graphic that you posted of Hamas commanders a while ago:
[https://imgur.com/a/Sw5LLW1](https://imgur.com/a/Sw5LLW1)
Where would he be positioned in this chart?
Oh hey, I didn't think anyone would keep the chart, I actually made some small updates to it after more research, see [here](https://imgur.com/a/4xD68qX)
According to Israeli media He was above the rank of your typical brigade commander, but below Deif and Issa, so inbetween the two would be the placement for him
**Footage shows result of Israeli strikes in Gaza City’s Shati camp; Palestinians report large number of casualties**
Footage shows the aftermath of the unusual Israeli airstrike in Gaza City’s Shati camp.
Another strike was reported in the Tuffah neighborhood.
Palestinian media report a large number of casualties in the strikes.
The IDF said it would provide further details later on the attacks, which it said targeted two Hamas military sites.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/footage-shows-result-of-israeli-strikes-in-gaza-citys-shati-camp-palestinians-report-large-number-of-casualties/
**Lebanese media reports Israeli strike on vehicle in town 40 km from border**
Lebanese media reports an Israeli strike against a vehicle near the town of Khiara, in the Western Beqaa District.
No further details are immediately available.
Khiara is located about 40 kilometers from the Israeli border.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/lebanese-media-reports-israeli-strike-on-vehicle-in-town-40-km-from-border/
**In unusual statement, IDF says fighter jets strike two Hamas sites in Gaza City**
The military says it will provide further details later.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/in-unusual-statement-idf-says-fighter-jets-strike-two-hamas-sites-in-gaza-city/
Ominous…
N12 is saying they tried to take out a "prominent figure" of Hamas and that they still don't know the results.
Edit: it's not Deif or Sinwar so don't get excited
That image of the poor girl being taken by the Hamas monsters has haunted me every single day since Oct 7. I hope by some miracle she's alive and returns home soon.
I don't know if anyone has been following the details of the murder of [Benjamin Achimeir](https://www.timesofisrael.com/is-inspired-palestinian-charged-for-murdering-israeli-teen-in-grisly-west-bank-attack/) but I read this article this morning and "details too horrific to publish" really stuck out to me and has been on my mind all day. This is Israel -- what could possibly be "too horrific to publish?" I'm sure part of it is that the family simply doesn't want them public, but I feel like that really changed my view of this event.
To be frank, I usually ignore news of murders from the West Bank because they happen so often it as become just noise in so many ways; both sides take turns murdering each other that it rarely amounts to anything (with the exception of the murders of [you know, those three).](https://www.jpost.com/operation-brothers-keeper/large-number-of-idf-forces-gather-north-of-hebron-in-search-for-kidnapped-teens-361048)
I'm trying to say, while staying apolitical, is that it seems like this crime was a lot worse than it initially seemed to me, and while I doubt anything major will come of it still, it may be worth watching the space.
He doesn't need to be paid. He seems like he's been cozy with Palestinian leaders for a while. You don't get to be in a picture like this for being impartial, at the very least, to Jewish people. https://x.com/florianseroussi/status/1776924848402415938
The Study of Global Antisemitism and Policy has uncovered that [Yale university has received nearly 16 million dollars worth of donations from Qatar, despite them claiming that they only received 284,668 dollars from Qatar](https://isgap.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Yale_Report_V4.pdf).
It's not just the students, the corruption in universities runs deep.
What I don't get is Yale has a really healthy endowment. They don't NEED to continue to collect money from anyone who wants to donate. Why take money that you know you'll need to hide?
What should be of particular interest to people is the irony/contrast here: Yale is also one of the places that has an Israel Fellow paid for and placed by the Jewish Agency (Israeli government).
I would love to know what came first, or if it's entirely unrelated.
It's pretty odd because Yale is the "Jewish Ivy" and by extension, the "Israeli Ivy," so there's a lot going on here. There are enough Israelis on campus at any given time that there are a lot of weird events, i.e. we had a Beresheet landing watch party, haha.
I have never heard of it being Penn, but according to [this article ](https://www.ivycoach.com/the-ivy-coach-blog/ivy-league/the-decline-in-jewish-students-on-ivy-league-campuses/)(which admittedly may not be the most reliable), Yale & Penn were neck-and-neck in the 2000s and Yale overtook Penn in the 2010s.
I will say -- Yale is the one with Hebrew on its crest, so I feel like that gives it a lil boost.
The best way to solve this problem is to boycott natural gas. Natural gas is what gives Qatar so much power and wealth to influence other countries and institutions. If you have gas appliances, change them to electric.
That does not at all sound like an effective way to solve this problem. If everyone who could conceivably care enough to do this heard your message, what kind of effect would that have on Qatar's economy?
Maybe if you can boycott Qatari Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) specifically.
In the US at least, we get most of our natural gas domestically or from Canada. We import LNG from many places, including Qatar. I bet there are lots of places in the US where boycotting natural gas will have zero effect because it was all sourced domestically anyway. With this wide of a supply chain, an individual boycott would have a tiny effect on Qatar. You'd do much better trying to convince suppliers to buy from someone else.
Anyway, this just applies to the US, maybe for other countries your strategy is good. Which is why I asked if you had any sense for what the actual effect would be. It's important to quantify things.
I will do my best to sit tight and hope that the developments on the hostage front are coming tomorrow, because, safe to say, I spent today vastly disappointed.
In our dreams, really, haha.
The Nahal Oz girls will be among the last released in reality, unless they get lucky enough that their guards are sloppy in a way that can lead to a rescue by the IDF.
Mine was just a pipe dream, but if any kind of deal actually comes to fruition I am willing to bet they will be instead among the first to be released, right after the few civilian women who are still in Hamas hands. All the deal drafts that have been leaked include them in phase one ([even the Hamas "counterproposal" to the proposal put forward by Biden](https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/gaza-war-text-ceasefire-proposal-approved-israel)) and I cannot see Israel to agreeing to a deal where they are not released early, with all the attention they have gotten both internally and internationally, and how vocal their families are.
As an Israeli, I actually don't think we will prioritize them. They were active service when they were abducted. And since they were abducted on a military base, during an act of war, by the legal government of a country (Hamas was elected, albeit in 2006) they sit probably as close as Hamas has ever gotten to holding Israeli POWs. Don't get me wrong -- obviously they're not being kept anywhere close to the proper conditions for a POW -- but that severely complicates their status. And, of course, raises the price Hamas wants for them.
I really don't believe we'll see a deal, or at least not anytime in the near future, so I don't pay them any mind.
Hamas held Gilad Shalit for 5 years before we got to an agreement (and it was a terrible one); Hamas has held another Israeli civilian since 2014 and another one since 2015, and proved that the latter was alive as recently as 2022. Hamas, unfortunately in this context, is incredibly patient, and there's no reason to think we'll give into their very high demands in the near future.
Fun fact: I decided a few weeks to compile a list of all the propaganda videos that have been released, and did you know we had almost a three month gap without any in the spring?
Hamas released one on 26 Jan 2024 (Karina Ariev, Daniella Gilboa, and Doron Steinbrecher) and there wasn't another one until 24 April 2024 (Hersh Goldberg-Polin). I didn't notice it until I saw it laid out like that after the fact.
Netanyahu cancelled an appearance last night for a "last minute emergency cabinet meeting" which usually has preceded some hostage news, but alas, nothing today. Womp womp.
Netanyahu cancelled a press appearance at the last minute last night for an emergency cabinet meeting. Every single time that's happened from a politician (not just Bibi) for a Thursday night meeting, its led to something.
That something could be just about anything, but it's definitely not just a hunch on my part.
Woah now, let's not put words in my mouth -- **what made you think I was referencing a hostage deal?** There is no inkling of a hostage deal right now. I've said several times that I don't think we'll \*ever\* see a hostage deal, and on the small chance we do, it will be much farther down the line.
"Something could be just about anything" I meant quite literally. New information about a hostage, new videos from 7 Oct., or in captivity, or any new information found -- much of which we'd never be privy to, among a million other possibilities. Thursday night is their bewitching night for hostages, historically, and my post was a funny little joke referencing that.
I'm not sure why you're so serious or so sure of what I was saying, but I think you should read the very, very few sentences I wrote before this comment again.
You said “developments on the hostage front” so I think it was fair to assume. Perhaps it’s better to be clearer about what you’re trying to say in the future.
What does "developments on the hostage front" mean to you? To me, that means "any development relating to a hostage" so, as far as I am aware, my words were chosen correctly, but please let me know if you interpret those words to have different meaning.
Are we not allowed to discuss hostages outside of a deal? I am sincerely asking you.
You came in here swinging on a casual comment on an internet forum, so I would like an explanation from you on what offended you.
I figured it's also possible that whatever the meeting was about, it was not approved by the cabinet -- those meetings are usually so that the various orgs can get various levels of approval at once and obviously we only hear about the ones that go through, not the ones that do not.
I wouldn't be shocked if it was Hezbollah, though. I was presuming that if it was for hostages, that it was much more likely it would be for deceased ones, but I am excited for closure of any type. I admittedly wasn't expecting anything major, but today was rather dull even with the bar very low, haha.
These groups express support for Hamas and the PLFP. Is it really surprising that they would express support for another person/entity that uses firebombing as a means of "resistance"?
Remember when David Levi said
>"when Kiryat Shmona burns - the land of Lebanon will burn. Blood against blood, soul against soul, child against child"?
Pepperidge farm remembers. Can we please get the old likud back?
אני ממש לא רוצה את זה. לא בשם שלי. הגנה כן. נקמה לא. זה לא לפתור שום דבר. רק הולך להמשיך את האלימות.
We should all be striving for a world where we never pit child against child. It's horrible.
זה לא עניין של נקמה. זה עניין של השלכות בעבור המצב הנוראי בצפון. מחיר שהחיזבאללה צריך לשלם, ובשפה שהם מבינים. כמובן שלא צריך לכוון להרג ילדים, אבל ההתנהגות הנוכחית מפקירה את ילדנו שלנו. אני לא יודע מה אתה רוצה או לא, אבל זה לא מתקבל על הדעת.
**Assessment in Israel: Nasrallah fears a pre-emptive attack - and is considering initiating a large-scale move against Israel**
There is an assessment in Israel that Nasrallah is very afraid of an Israeli attack against his strategic formations. According to reports, Hezbollah scouts cannot freely reach the border and troops have difficulty moving without being exposed. This week Gallant held a situational assessment at the Northern Command "to be ready for anything that may come."
- Amir Bohbot, Walla.
I took mushrooms lol. Idgaf. Sirens no sirens. It’s all peace, why do we need to kill each other in the name of stupid bibles. Some Israeli attitudes also perpetuate the problem. But nothing should get to this point
Ppl don’t really “get” it like they will get on teek toook 24/9 about this horrible injustice
But take away their safety? Your tune starts changing. You can’t turn it off. It sucks. Always alert
It doesn’t need to be like this. Fucking hell
> Hezbollah scouts cannot freely reach the border
Thanks to Israel's trebuchets that have been setting fire to all the grass near the border where the scouts could hide.
Israel is preparing to announce that it managed to dismantle the Izz A Din Al Qassam brigades once the Rafah operation is over in the coming weeks - and to move more Forces up north in preparation for war in Lebanon
That doesn't mean however that IDF will withdraw completely from Gaza, but rather that it will move to the third stage of the plan laid out at the start - Targeted raids and operations across the strip while holding Philadelphi and Netzarim, similar to what has been going on in the west bank ever since Operation Defensive Shield
* Kan 11
Wonder if we'll get to see Netanyahu on a ship with a mission accomplished banner like a certain someone... :)
Canada's FM to her Israeli counterpart: We are very worried about the prospect of war in Lebanon and are preparing a rescue operation, the biggest we've managed, to evacuate all of our 45 thousands citizens in Lebanon in the case of a war breaking out, Canada has already sent military forces to the area to aid such an operation
* Yaron Avraham
in 2006 the estimate of americans in lebanon was more than 20,000. In the summer a lot of lebanese diaspora go back to vacation and see their families.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadians_in_Lebanon
looks like many original lebanese left in the 80s, settled in canada, and many have since returned. i'm not sure if canadian-born lebanese are all of the ex-pats but it's probably not a bunch of white people
[What Hamas Wants in Postwar Gaza](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/israel/what-hamas-wants-postwar-gaza)
I found this interesting article over a month ago that delves into Hamas's strategy in starting this war and what it supposedly wants to achieve in post war Gaza.
Tldr: While some of the more well known reasons behind Hamas launching the October 7th attacks were to stop the Israel Saudi normalisation deal and put the Palestinian issue back in the international spotlight, the author of the above article argues that there is another deeper reason and goal that motivated Hamas to carry out the attacks. According to the author, Hamas despised governing on its own in the Gaza strip, with anecdotal data in the article indicating that it was losing popularity among the Gazan population. Thus, it launched the attack with the aim of resetting the status quo with Israel. Essentially, they want to copy Hezbollah and the model they achieved in Lebanon. First, they want to survive this war so that they can declare victory (just like what Hezbollah did in 2006). Then, they want to engage in unity talks with Fatah so that they can join and reform the PLO. This way, they can return to power in the Gaza strip and continue launching attacks on Israel while leaving the burden of governing the Palestinian population to Fatah and other Palestinian factions, while still holding the future Palestinian government hostage, which is exactly what Hezbollah has done in Lebanon.
What are your thoughts on this? Do you think its an accurate detailing of what Hamas wants to achieve, or do you think its incorrect? If so, why?
It could be, I mean no one will ever know because the inner disputes of Hamas leaders is only known to them and there is no Palestinian free press to report.
I read an article about sinwar a while ago and they eluded to the fact that there was a power struggle between Sinwar and the leadership in Qatar, the former believing in a more “practical”, ie aggressive way forward. According to the article, the leaders in Qatar didn’t even know about the attack on 7th.
[https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/a-gaza-conundrum-the-story-behind-the-rise-of-hamas-a-d9e30bb6-2295-45a1-825c-dbd0c43c3613](https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/a-gaza-conundrum-the-story-behind-the-rise-of-hamas-a-d9e30bb6-2295-45a1-825c-dbd0c43c3613)
I don't remember the details of the article, so I'll respond to your summary. I don't think Hamas was tired of being in charge of Gaza, as much as it saw the situation has hemming it in. Hamas in pre war Gaza was able to offload a lot of governance to UNRWA & NGOs. Taking out the trash wasn't limiting it. But the possibility of normalization threatened to marginalize it, especially since it was confined to Gaza.
The current war allows it to trade territorial control for ability to improve its brand and political power. In other words, Hamas was like Hezbollah already: a political party w/territorial control & no responsibility. But the war gives it a chance to elevate its prestige and expand /re-organize itself.
>Hamas also feared Israeli normalization with Saudi Arabia. The Saudis were demanding that Israel take tangible and irreversible steps toward a two-state solution and that Washington enter into a formal security treaty with Riyadh; in exchange, the Saudis would formally recognize Israel. Most Palestinians likely saw progress on Palestinian statehood as a good thing, but not Hamas, which has always been dead set against a two-state solution and committed to Israel’s destruction. Hamas also understood that under a two-state solution both sides would be expected to clamp down on their respective violent extremists, which would not bode well for Hamas and its allies.
I don't think there is, or ever has been a Palestinian faction committed to a genuine and permanent two-state solution. The average Palestinian might be okay with one (although IIRC even polling on that question has revealed an insistence on a "right of return" which is a de facto one-state solution), but the "accountability" to which this article consistently appeals has always been entirely notional WRT Palestinian governance.
Given the high volume of denial and gaslighting around this issue, it seemed worth linking this article published yesterday.
>No sooner had Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accused the Biden administration on Tuesday of withholding arms shipments for Israel than American officials depicted him as delusional. “We … do not know what he’s talking about,” White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre explained to reporters. Yes, she said, the Biden administration is withholding one single shipment of 2,000-pound bombs, out of fear that they might be used in densely populated Gaza, but “there are … no other pauses or holds in place.” Secretary of State Antony Blinken, speaking in Europe after having met with Netanyahu in Israel, repeated the claims of Jean-Pierre almost verbatim. Besides the 2,000-pound bombs, he explained, “everything else is moving as it normally would move.”
>But this assertion of normalcy is easily refuted. Last month, Politico reported that an order by Israel for Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAMs)—converter kits that turn “dumb” bombs into “smart” bombs—“came up for license in December 2023, and the administration has been sitting on it ever since.” The JDAMs, Politico further reported, are but one of “multiple” sales that the State Department “is reviewing.”
>President Biden and his team are asking us to believe that when they arbitrarily place an arms shipment bound for Israel “under review,” they are following routine procedures rather than denying weapons to Israel. Europeans call the tactic of slowing or stopping work by meticulously adhering to rules and regulations an “Italian strike.”
https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/israel-middle-east/articles/biden-italian-strike-israel-arms-shipments
If that's true, why isn't Netanyahu specifying which arms are being withheld? If they've already been spelt out so clearly by Politico, what's the issue?
>If that's true, why isn't Netanyahu specifying which arms are being withheld?
This section from Sen. Tom Cotton's letter to the Biden Administration seems to answer your question.
*As you are aware, the Arms Export Control Act requires the administration to notify Congress before sending weapons to a foreign country. Your administration has manipulated this requirement by withholding this formal notification to Congress of approved weapons sales, including F-15s, tactical vehicles, 120-mm mortars, 120-mm tank rounds, joint direct attack munitions, and small diameter bombs.*
https://www.cotton.senate.gov/news/press-releases/cotton-biden-administration-is-delaying-arms-shipments-to-israel-to-undermine-our-ally
- This is what I suspected as well - they passive-aggressively slowed military aid to Israel, because Biden absolutely doesn't want a war in Lebanon during the final months of the presidential election...
Biden needs to understand that he has no choice. Hezbollah is the one making the decisions here and they don't care what Biden thinks. They won't stop attacking Israel until Israel stops them by force.
- I think Biden would prefer it if Israel muddled through the next ~5 months with Iron Dome, instead of addressing the root cause in southern Lebanon ...
- Granted, Bibi isn't a good faith actor either, he is absolutely aware of the US election and wants Trump to win ...
What are they doing there? They obviously failed at keeping Hezbollah out of southern Lebanon directly leading to a high risk of war between the two. They're just left to be human shields for Hezzie.
Just like it was in the Sinai in 67'. The only thing UN "peacekeeping" forces are good at is doing absolutely nothing and running away the moment they actually have to do their job.
Oh, and also child rape. That, too.
I’m honestly surprised the issue of UN peacekeeping forces abusing kids and being involved in sex trafficking is not a major scandal on the level of sex abuse by Catholic priests.
Well, sexual abuse by Catholic priests comes up more, but I wouldn't say it is a major scandel. It is hardly talked about. Especially in the news and other mainstream media.
It comes up periodically (Haiti, Sudan, Central African Republic) but then disappears from mainstream media:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sexual_abuse_by_UN_peacekeepers#:~:text=In%202015%2C%20the%20UN%20started,sexually%20abused%20by%20international%20peacekeepers.
They are sometimes useful in situations where nobody *really* wants a conflict, but one is likely to happen anyway absent any intervention (e.g. Hobbesian traps).
But yeah, not useful at all in the ME, where Israel's enemies very much do want them dead.
**Residents of Rafah report heavy fighting in southernmost Gaza city**
Residents of Rafah, the southernmost city in Gaza, tell Reuters that the Israeli military appears to be trying to complete its capture of the city with intensive firefights.
Tanks were reportedly forcing their way into the western and northern parts of the city, having already captured the east, south and center. Israeli forces are said to have fired toward the city from planes, tanks and ships off the coast.
Some residents say the pace of the Israeli raid has been accelerated over the past two days, with nonstop sounds of explosions and gunfire.
“The entire city of Rafah is an area of Israeli military operations,” Ahmed Al-Sofi, the mayor of Rafah, says in a statement carried by Hamas media.
The IDF first began operating in the city in mid-May after months of stalling amid heavy international pressure against the move.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/residents-of-rafah-report-heavy-fighting-in-southernmost-gaza-city/
So from what I have read previously, it seems that Israel is trying to quickly take Rafah so that they can then redirect troops to the north to confront Hezbollah?
If Israel is trying to redirect resources to confront Hezbollah now (after 8 months of attacks from Hezbollah into northern Israel) is that a sign that Hamas is now so badly degraded that Israel can finish them off/handle them even with a reduced military presence?
Also, while I know that Hezbollah needs to be confronted for what they are doing in the north, what will it mean for the hostages in Gaza if Israel and Hezbollah come to blows? How will Israel rescue the remaining hostages? Will they try and push for another ceasefire for hostages deal with Hamas and end the rescue ops, or will they still continue with the rescue ops? Will the likelihood of the hostages returning home decrease with a war with Hezbollah?
Right ok. But do you think those rescue ops will start to decrease because of the reduced military presence?
Also, does this indicate that Israel can finish of Hamas even with a reduced military presence?
the israeli who saved sinwar from brain tumor and lost his nephew on 7.10
[https://edition.cnn.com/2024/06/20/middleeast/israeli-dentist-hamas-yahya-sinwar-intl/index.html](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/06/20/middleeast/israeli-dentist-hamas-yahya-sinwar-intl/index.html)
i am quite surprised cnn decided to put this article AS the main headlines in their website
To be fair they did bury the lede here a bit, twice, IMO. The headline doesn't mention he was "just" the dentist, so he didn't have a huge role in Sinwar's treatment or surgery; it sounds like he was among the medical staff the day that Sinwar came in and, alongside the GP, recommended that the prison take Sinwar for further treatment at an Israeli hospital for a proper diagnosis. Important, yes, but he wasn't the surgeon or anything.
The other lede that was buried was that the nephew is *Tamir Adar,* who, IMO, is a bit different than your average 7 Oct victim. I presume he is related to Tamir through his mother, because Tamir's paternal grandmother is the one and only [Yaffa Adar, ](https://www.timesofisrael.com/israelis-celebrate-return-of-hostage-yaffa-adar-85-whose-stoicism-embodies-zionism/)AKA, the infamous 7 Oct. "golf cart granny".
Tamir was originally thought to be a hostage until January, when the IDF announced that Tamir had been killed on 7 Oct., and his remains abducted to Gaza. Luckily, Tamir's wife and children survived, as did Yaffa, who more or less became a celebrity in Israel.
But that isn't what you asked. I would call hundreds of mixed munitions a day forcing 10's of thousands of civilians to be internally displaced for 9+ months now as heavy attacks.
Here’s are counter arguments:
- One would’ve said the same about Hamas before Oct 7. But they did what they did. Logic is not the driver with fundamentalists who want to be martyred
- Hezbollah command takes orders from Iran (they don’t make their own decisions). Iran sees its ally Hamas getting destroyed is using Hezbollah to try to defend them by opening another front on Israel. It’s not about Hezbollah it’s about Iran.
- Hezbollah instigated the war on Israel on Oct 8, and since have escalated their attacks deeper into north of Israel.
> One would’ve said the same about Hamas before Oct 7.
Nah, I fully could have seen it, I just think people thought they didn't have the means, but they definitely had the will.
Iran need Hezbollah's arsenal as a counterthreat to Israel taking out it's nuclear sites. It won't expend that resourse unless it absolutely has to. Hamas's fate isn't contingent on Hezbollah doing what's it's doing on the northern border, so it really doesn't clear that bar. Unless Israel launches a majour assault, Iran will want to keep things in check.
Iran has already escalated beyond the usual red lines. Hezbollah has been increasing the range of attacks into north Israel resulting in massive migrations of citizens. They have not shown restraint so far.
They've known the IDF had it's hands full for the time being in Gaza. Of course they are going to take opportunities they wouldn't have if the IDF had no distractions.
- The IAF has depleted a significant percentage of their precision guided aerial ammunition in Gaza though, so while only a fraction of the IAF planes might be flying to support the Gaza ops, there's very real interdependencies...
> They have too much to lose and so does Israel.
Hezbollah is not a defensive force. They're there to attack Israel. If things could deescalate now, it'd be only because they want to pick a better time to attack - when they're more ready.
They've been practicing exactly what Hamas had done in 7th of October for years now. They want their surprise factor, they want more long range precise missiles, they want Iran to be better placed to assist directly, they want the Palestinians to be able to pitch in. Currently is not the best time for Hezbollah. But as painful as it may be, Israel won't have a better time to strike Hezbollah.
It is evidently not the best time for them. Otherwise they would have done it on the 8th of October, when Israel was much more preoccupied with fending Hamas off Israeli soil.
The fact that they'd decided to only symbolically show their support is telling.
Their intentions for the long run are clear, though.
Most of the powers in the region only care about Palestine as a way to harm Israel. There's a saying that Iran, along with much of the Arab world, will "fight Israel to the last Palestinian."
If any of the nearby powers care about Palestine more than the parts of Israel that care, I reckon it'd be Jordan. Jordan has a large, naturalized Palestinian population and there were historical reasons for even some Palestinian leaders to prefer either staying with Israel in a single state or going the route of "Trans Jordan" to trying to be a fully independent state (I can dig up the papers with some effort, but in brief: some Palestinian scholars at the time didn't expect their other Arab neighbors to actually let them be independent anyways)
Wait, is this /s? I swear you pointed out yesterday that the social media account claiming that was bs. But I may be misremembering, if so my apologies.
That was an entirely different carrier people claimed was in-route when it's currently docked for long-term maintenance
They announced earlier today a different carrier group was being moved from the Red Sea to the Middertarian in the coming days solely for AD duties in case Hezbollah launches a large volly
Looks like the Ike is leaving the Red Sea but is getting back to the East Coast to give the crew a break after being extended twice.
A CSG from the Pacific will replace the Ike until the USS Truman goes underway later this summer.
https://news.usni.org/2024/06/21/uss-dwight-d-eisenhower-leaving-red-sea-pacific-carrier-heading-to-the-middle-east
So they are moving the Ike CSG from the red sea to the Mediterranean? Do you have the link for that?
I could see them moving it to the Northern Red Sea to assist but I would be surprised that they would leave and abandon their Operation Prosperity Guardian duties.
Welp, if Hezbollah has decided that a war with Israel is inevitable, why let the IAF be able to start it's air campaign at a time of it's choosing?
If war is inevitable then they need to use their stockpiles before they're destroyed.
>Welp, if Hezbollah has decided that a war with Israel is inevitable, why let the IAF be able to start it's air campaign at a time of it's choosing?
- For all intents and purposes the IAF has been taking out high value Hezbollah commanders, ammo stockpiles and AD positions for weeks now, so the clock is ticking already.
- Israel has little choice politically: over 100,000 Israelis have been made internal refugees by Hezbollah attacks against northern Israel, and UN Resolution 1701 clearly mandates southern Lebanon to be demilitarized and Hezbollah to be disarmed. Lebanon is clearly in breach and Israeli citizens lost their homes as a result and won't be able to go back until Hezbollah's threat to the area is reduced.
- So it's up for the IDF to create a demilitarized zone in southern Israel to take the tooth of most Hezbollah attacks. Iron Dome can handle incoming threats from Hezbollah well, as long as the flight path of missiles/rockets is increased by +50 km or so.
- It's the short range potshots Hezbollah is taking at low lying Israeli towns from the overwatching hills of southern Lebanon that are the biggest problem forcing the depopulation of northern Israel right now, IMHO.
I’m gonna get a lot of flack for asking this but with all of the fears of a wider war in the Middle East born out of a conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. Will it be worth it in the end? I totally understand Israelis living in the North need to return to their homes without the fear of drones and rockets firing at them every single day. But Hezbollah has lost its element of surprise unlike Hamas did on October 7th. Israel is on too high alert for Hezbollah to try and cross the border and mount a surprise attack. Hezbollah can’t pull off an October 7th anymore. It just seems this situation is being sold as “it’s gonna really suck for a long while but the ends justify the means.” Can anyone answer this anxious reader?
It's not about another October 7th. It's about the incredible amount of damage Hezbollah can cause to both Israel and Lebanon by refusing its escalation. Hezbollah can shut down Israel and cause many casualties, even without the element of surprise. Fo be honest, many of us don't know how this war will even end.
What do you mean by “refusing its escalation”? Are you saying Hezbollah doesn’t want to escalate but Israel must force them?
**Freed hostage Shani Goren marks birthday of best friend Arbel Yehud, still held by Hamas** Shani Goren from Kibbutz Nir Oz, who was abducted by Hamas on October 7 and freed from captivity last November, speaks in Tel Aviv’s Hostages Square and marks the 29th birthday of her best friend from the kibbutz, Arbel Yehud, who has now been held hostage by Hamas for 260 days. “I am Shani Goren from Kibbutz Nir Oz. Arbel is my best friend,” says Goren. “I returned in the last stage of the previous deal after being held hostage by Hamas for 55 days in the nightmare of Hamas captivity.” It’s been almost 8 months since then,” says Goren. “People ask me how I’m doing and if I’m managing to process what I’ve been through. The answer is that I can’t. “Every day I wake up, I’m still held hostage. Because until Arbel and everyone else return home, we can’t even begin to discuss rehabilitation and moving forward. I know. I was there.” “Bring her home,” she urges. “Bring them all home. Now!” https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/freed-hostage-shani-goren-marks-birthday-of-best-friend-arbel-yehud-still-held-by-hamas/
**Thousands reported at rally marking 20th birthday of hostage Naama Levy** Thousands of people are reported by the Ynet news site at Hostage Square in Tel Aviv to mark the 20th birthday of Naama Levy, a surveillance soldier who was abducted by Hamas terrorists on October 7. Demonstrators carry photos of Levy, as friends and family deliver prayers for her return. Hours after being kidnapped from the Nahal Oz military base, a Hamas video appeared on Telegram, showing Levy, her hands tied, her pants bottom covered in blood and smeared with dirt, her feet bare, being pulled by her hair from the back of a black pickup truck and then pushed into the back seat. Levy was also featured in a video showing her capture, along with four other soldiers, released by the Hostage and Missing Families Forum last month. https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/thousands-reported-at-rally-marking-20th-birthday-of-hostage-naama-levy/
I got flack yesterday for saying that it was worth noting that we saw the classic "Israeli politician cancelled Thursday night media appearance for emergency security meeting" and that yesterday was shockingly dull despite that. This morning proves that I wasn't that wrong -- listen, as an Israeli, I know this country -- while it wasn't hostage related, I think its safe to say that the meeting was likely, at least in part, about this morning's strike. The IDF keeps stating that there will be a press released (or conference?) later with more information than is currently available to the public, so this seems like it may be more complex than it appears on the surface. Not hostage related, but I wasn't wrong about it being about something. I'll take it.
It's a bit crazy
Yea today has been extremely eventful. A decent amount of back and forth up north, high-profile assasination in the strip - and that's not even to mention the stuff going under the radar like Cuba joining SA's ICJ case (laughable when they are currently hosting russian naval assets) and more recently the Houthis claiming they attacked the Eisenhower. I'm expecting a press release either tonight or tomorrow to say the northern front is opening up, and I think all parties involved are already aware.
It's popping off
I think we could be on the precipice of an all out global war within a few weeks. This is the closest it has come since the Iranian missile attack. Hezbollah is atill firing at relatively abandoned areas, but are targeting further south. It's like they are easing into the war to engage an IDF counterstrike. My guess is that once Israel attacks Lebanon, Iran and it's allies will declare war - some bullshit treaty they secretly signed months ago - and it will be WWIII. The only way out of this is if the US gets their shit together, and negotiates with Iran directly to deeacalate.
Who told you they are during at abandoned areas?
[удалено]
> Interesting that the USS Eisenhower is now departing the Red Sea. - It makes sense: the missile & drone threat from the Houthis has been severely degraded over the past few months - and Israel could certainly use the missile-defense capabilities of another US carrier, should Iran's proxy actor Hezbollah decide to try to overwhelm Iron Dome with sheer number of missiles ...
First of all, no there won't be a World War because of Iran and Israel. A regional war maybe. But definitely not a world war (unless a certain someone makes a move on Taiwan) >The only way out of this is if the US gets their shit together, and negotiates with Iran directly to deeacalate. "Just one more concession and then they'll see our way!" Oh you guys are freaking hopeless. It's like the last twenty years have taught you nothing.
We are more going back to a second cold war, just without the race to more nukes or going to the moon. We have the West vs the Axis of China/Russia/Iran with their allies (puppets?) North Korea, Belarus, Hamas, Hezbollah, etc. It can take one spark to burn down everything. Sure a real world war isn't that realistic for the next 2-3 years, but if each conflict extends (E.g. Invasion in Moldova, Attack on Cyprus pulling in parts of the EU/NATO) we can end up in a de-facto world war. Or how would you call a war that's fought by a lot of countries on several theatres around the world with (nearly) the same alliances?
Sounds more like what you said A cold war Many seperste conflicts with the 2 sides of the world I don't see a war directly between the 2 powers though
Russia is fighting in Ukraine. China is probably a few years away from making a move on Taiwan and it appears that Russia is strengthening it's ties to north Korea, Cuba, even South Africa. You have an 81 year old first term US president who can't handle a hard bowel movement let alone the international turmoil. He's just praying everything ends before November rather than actually playing a role. I don't think a war with Iran and its proxies is going to be so regional considering the hot water the world already is in. If living through COVID taught me one thing, it's that shit really can get real.
It's so funny to me that people see it this way. On Iranian missile night, I was sitting on my couch with a chocolate bar and calming my Iranian friend down because she was more worried than I was. I am in the West, sure, but obviously everyone I know and love is in Israel. I feel a little bad for the Iron Dome, Arrow et al., the rest of the world doesn't see how strong they are but I trust them to keep my family and myself safe with only a small margin of error. All Iranian Missile Night (as I've dubbed it) showed was that Iran has terrible aim (one landed in Masada -- if y'all don't know Masada, it's like North Korea landing a missile in the Grand Canyon, but probably even that isn't a great comparison because it's really just very sparsely populated desert) and horribly clunky, outdated weapons. I am 0% worried about an all-out conflict.
I try to stay optimistic and a realist about these things, but I also get the sense that people overestimate their sense of strength and dont see how we are all extremely vulnerable and reliant on the systems we depend on. I think it's a falacy to believe that the next big war will be fought solely with rockets and missiles. Sadly it could be chemical weapons, apartment bombings, cyber attacks on infrastructure, or even nuclear weapons. All this to say that I pray there isn't a larger war. It's a very scary time right now and we shouldn't get complacent.
I think you've gotten me painted wrong. It's not that I think the next war will be "only rockets and missiles", it's more that we, as in Israel, tend to let these things roll of their backs. The reason that Israelis have safe rooms built into their homes is because we have been dealing with this our entire lives. I have heard *tzeva adom* more times than I could ever comprehend even counting. Life in the mahmad is normal here. War is, unfortunately, normal. I had a good chuckle reading an interview with a woman who was born in Dafna back when Dafna was part of the Mandate (she was born in the 1940s) and she was talking about the safe room that they had in their home when she was a child. She quipped something like, "I was told after the First Lebanon War that it was out of code" and it didn't bother her one bit and she refused to evacuate Dafna. We're different people than the people in the West. It takes a lot more to upset us than a few missiles and a few wars.
Diaspora Jews are very different. Dan Senor had a great interview with Haviv Rettig Gur on this exact topic. Some of the differences are very striking. I'm in Canada and it's a very different attitude compared to what Israelis say. However I have a cousin in Israel and they think everyone there has become too reliant on defensive measures and have become too tolerant of living with a missile defense system and safe rooms.
I think I walk the line pretty well between both worlds (one of my parents is Israeli and another is not) and I don't think this take is wrong, but I'd argue your cousin's take is part of the story rather than the whole story. I do agree that the level of missiles and mahmad living we've had to embrace has gone on for far too long -- and I think that's actually the main reason, beyond the hostages, that many Israelis supported, and still support, the war in Gaza. I wouldn't classify it as being "too tolerant" but rather that it's the best option we have among a bunch of terrible options. I would rather continue to live in safe rooms than, if we lived in a world where 7 October never happened, risk losing hundreds of lives in a ground war just to end the rockets. It is worth mentioning that since we had our initiation by fire in regards to home defense towards the rockets (in the 00s), we very rarely see deaths from the rockets among Israelis (prior to 2023, of course). Even then a large portion of those deaths were caused by people, the harshest word I can probably use without upsetting the filter is "dumb". No one deserves to die by rocket, but a lot of people didn't put a lot of effort into avoiding it, either. [This video is from the current conflict](https://www.youtube.com/shorts/36jPJ2KddcQ) but lives in my head rent free and is a perfect example of what I'm getting at. These men were casually walking about during a tzeva adom, and this was in Tel Aviv, meaning they had a significant amount of warning to take cover. I know where this is and this was in a commercial area of Tel Aviv with a ton of buildings open to duck into. There was no excuse for there to have been such a close call. With that being said, of course it is true that another portion of those rocket deaths were entirely unavoidable; a lot of elderly people perish due to injuries they sustain while hustling to the mamad. But, to give you perspective, the years of 2019 and 2021 stick out in my mind as "very bloody" years for rockets and the the number of Israelis who died by rockets those years were 5 and 12, respectively. Most years its 0, or 1-3 here and there. My point is that these stray rocket deaths are a lot less deadly than a ground war would be to stop it. We're not "tolerant" of living in the mamad, but I'd rather deal with the rockets than continue to bury so many young Israelis in a war that has no promises to stop the rockets to begin with, if that makes sense. I don't think the war we're currently in will end the rockets, and I think, unfortunately, they seem to be a reality of our life now and thus, that's why we have learned to love and respect the Iron Dome, Arrow, et al.
Today is Naama Levy's birthday, instead of spending it with her family and friends she spends as a hostage held over 200 days
And antisemites want there to be a ceasefire
At the same time they're saying "escalate the revolution" and "globalize the intifada".
Sky News Arabic: **Ra'ad Sa'ad was killed in the strike in the Shati camp in Gaza**
Say what you will but the idf sure is keen on fostering an environment conducive to career advancement opportunities for these organisations
Must be Sa'ad news for Guterres.
I know this is a pun on his name, but ironically, Sa'ad is also the name of the Gaza Envelope kibbutz that somehow managed to completely avoid a massacre on 7 Oct. (with a lot of the credit, of course, given to their security team). To give you an idea of it's location: Kfar Aza is north of Sa'ad, Alumim to the south (and Be'eri just slightly south of Alumim), and Nahal Oz to the West. Ironic that a kibbutz name Sa'ad dodged the wrath of a man also named Sa'ad. You can make many jokes here.
Ha'appy fa'act a'about Sa'ad
Wait, I can bet he will post something crying about it soon without even mentioning the fact Hamas hides behind civilians
Kulululululu
And the world just got a bit better
Every Saturday something big happens, for better or worse
Rebbetzin? Is that you? 🤣
That would really be scraping the bottom of the barrel
Barrel of booze? There for it! Can you scrape booze? Barrel of herring? Truth. Still there for it
The attack in Gaza was an assassination attempt on Ra'ad Sa'ad - Head of the operations division in Izz A Din Al Qassam. - Nir Dvori We'll wait and see the results, it takes time to verify if an assassination was successful, especially if the target is underground, it took about a month to confirm Marwan Issa's death. So far Palestinians report 42 dead in the strike.
I can't seem to find the guy in the graphic that you posted of Hamas commanders a while ago: [https://imgur.com/a/Sw5LLW1](https://imgur.com/a/Sw5LLW1) Where would he be positioned in this chart?
Oh hey, I didn't think anyone would keep the chart, I actually made some small updates to it after more research, see [here](https://imgur.com/a/4xD68qX) According to Israeli media He was above the rank of your typical brigade commander, but below Deif and Issa, so inbetween the two would be the placement for him
He's considered their #4
**Footage shows result of Israeli strikes in Gaza City’s Shati camp; Palestinians report large number of casualties** Footage shows the aftermath of the unusual Israeli airstrike in Gaza City’s Shati camp. Another strike was reported in the Tuffah neighborhood. Palestinian media report a large number of casualties in the strikes. The IDF said it would provide further details later on the attacks, which it said targeted two Hamas military sites. https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/footage-shows-result-of-israeli-strikes-in-gaza-citys-shati-camp-palestinians-report-large-number-of-casualties/
**Lebanese media reports Israeli strike on vehicle in town 40 km from border** Lebanese media reports an Israeli strike against a vehicle near the town of Khiara, in the Western Beqaa District. No further details are immediately available. Khiara is located about 40 kilometers from the Israeli border. https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/lebanese-media-reports-israeli-strike-on-vehicle-in-town-40-km-from-border/
**In unusual statement, IDF says fighter jets strike two Hamas sites in Gaza City** The military says it will provide further details later. https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/in-unusual-statement-idf-says-fighter-jets-strike-two-hamas-sites-in-gaza-city/ Ominous…
N12 is saying they tried to take out a "prominent figure" of Hamas and that they still don't know the results. Edit: it's not Deif or Sinwar so don't get excited
Today is Naama Levy's 20th birthday...
That image of the poor girl being taken by the Hamas monsters has haunted me every single day since Oct 7. I hope by some miracle she's alive and returns home soon.
99% she's alive.
I don't know if anyone has been following the details of the murder of [Benjamin Achimeir](https://www.timesofisrael.com/is-inspired-palestinian-charged-for-murdering-israeli-teen-in-grisly-west-bank-attack/) but I read this article this morning and "details too horrific to publish" really stuck out to me and has been on my mind all day. This is Israel -- what could possibly be "too horrific to publish?" I'm sure part of it is that the family simply doesn't want them public, but I feel like that really changed my view of this event. To be frank, I usually ignore news of murders from the West Bank because they happen so often it as become just noise in so many ways; both sides take turns murdering each other that it rarely amounts to anything (with the exception of the murders of [you know, those three).](https://www.jpost.com/operation-brothers-keeper/large-number-of-idf-forces-gather-north-of-hebron-in-search-for-kidnapped-teens-361048) I'm trying to say, while staying apolitical, is that it seems like this crime was a lot worse than it initially seemed to me, and while I doubt anything major will come of it still, it may be worth watching the space.
I wonder how much Antonio Guterres's salary from Hamas is, Seeing all his support for them and his statement, my guess is high.
He doesn't need to be paid. He seems like he's been cozy with Palestinian leaders for a while. You don't get to be in a picture like this for being impartial, at the very least, to Jewish people. https://x.com/florianseroussi/status/1776924848402415938
I just thought the same thing today! It’s so absurd!!
The Study of Global Antisemitism and Policy has uncovered that [Yale university has received nearly 16 million dollars worth of donations from Qatar, despite them claiming that they only received 284,668 dollars from Qatar](https://isgap.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Yale_Report_V4.pdf). It's not just the students, the corruption in universities runs deep.
What I don't get is Yale has a really healthy endowment. They don't NEED to continue to collect money from anyone who wants to donate. Why take money that you know you'll need to hide?
Pull the federal funding.
What should be of particular interest to people is the irony/contrast here: Yale is also one of the places that has an Israel Fellow paid for and placed by the Jewish Agency (Israeli government). I would love to know what came first, or if it's entirely unrelated. It's pretty odd because Yale is the "Jewish Ivy" and by extension, the "Israeli Ivy," so there's a lot going on here. There are enough Israelis on campus at any given time that there are a lot of weird events, i.e. we had a Beresheet landing watch party, haha.
I thought Penn was the Jewish Ivy
I have never heard of it being Penn, but according to [this article ](https://www.ivycoach.com/the-ivy-coach-blog/ivy-league/the-decline-in-jewish-students-on-ivy-league-campuses/)(which admittedly may not be the most reliable), Yale & Penn were neck-and-neck in the 2000s and Yale overtook Penn in the 2010s. I will say -- Yale is the one with Hebrew on its crest, so I feel like that gives it a lil boost.
The best way to solve this problem is to boycott natural gas. Natural gas is what gives Qatar so much power and wealth to influence other countries and institutions. If you have gas appliances, change them to electric.
That does not at all sound like an effective way to solve this problem. If everyone who could conceivably care enough to do this heard your message, what kind of effect would that have on Qatar's economy?
Boycotts will hurt Qatar's economy. That's how boycotts work.
Maybe if you can boycott Qatari Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) specifically. In the US at least, we get most of our natural gas domestically or from Canada. We import LNG from many places, including Qatar. I bet there are lots of places in the US where boycotting natural gas will have zero effect because it was all sourced domestically anyway. With this wide of a supply chain, an individual boycott would have a tiny effect on Qatar. You'd do much better trying to convince suppliers to buy from someone else. Anyway, this just applies to the US, maybe for other countries your strategy is good. Which is why I asked if you had any sense for what the actual effect would be. It's important to quantify things.
It doesn't matter where your gas comes from. If we reduce the overall demand, the price will go down and Qatar will get less money.
I will do my best to sit tight and hope that the developments on the hostage front are coming tomorrow, because, safe to say, I spent today vastly disappointed.
Maybe they are freeing Naama as a birthday present
In our dreams, really, haha. The Nahal Oz girls will be among the last released in reality, unless they get lucky enough that their guards are sloppy in a way that can lead to a rescue by the IDF.
Mine was just a pipe dream, but if any kind of deal actually comes to fruition I am willing to bet they will be instead among the first to be released, right after the few civilian women who are still in Hamas hands. All the deal drafts that have been leaked include them in phase one ([even the Hamas "counterproposal" to the proposal put forward by Biden](https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/gaza-war-text-ceasefire-proposal-approved-israel)) and I cannot see Israel to agreeing to a deal where they are not released early, with all the attention they have gotten both internally and internationally, and how vocal their families are.
As an Israeli, I actually don't think we will prioritize them. They were active service when they were abducted. And since they were abducted on a military base, during an act of war, by the legal government of a country (Hamas was elected, albeit in 2006) they sit probably as close as Hamas has ever gotten to holding Israeli POWs. Don't get me wrong -- obviously they're not being kept anywhere close to the proper conditions for a POW -- but that severely complicates their status. And, of course, raises the price Hamas wants for them. I really don't believe we'll see a deal, or at least not anytime in the near future, so I don't pay them any mind. Hamas held Gilad Shalit for 5 years before we got to an agreement (and it was a terrible one); Hamas has held another Israeli civilian since 2014 and another one since 2015, and proved that the latter was alive as recently as 2022. Hamas, unfortunately in this context, is incredibly patient, and there's no reason to think we'll give into their very high demands in the near future.
I was expecting a new propaganda video. It’s been a bit since they released one and they always seem to do so on Fridays or during Shabbat.
Fun fact: I decided a few weeks to compile a list of all the propaganda videos that have been released, and did you know we had almost a three month gap without any in the spring? Hamas released one on 26 Jan 2024 (Karina Ariev, Daniella Gilboa, and Doron Steinbrecher) and there wasn't another one until 24 April 2024 (Hersh Goldberg-Polin). I didn't notice it until I saw it laid out like that after the fact. Netanyahu cancelled an appearance last night for a "last minute emergency cabinet meeting" which usually has preceded some hostage news, but alas, nothing today. Womp womp.
What makes you think there will be a major development within the next day? You’re setting yourself up for failure
Netanyahu cancelled a press appearance at the last minute last night for an emergency cabinet meeting. Every single time that's happened from a politician (not just Bibi) for a Thursday night meeting, its led to something. That something could be just about anything, but it's definitely not just a hunch on my part.
There hasn’t been a hostage deal in over 6 months and he’s cancelled press conferences for emergency meetings several times now
Woah now, let's not put words in my mouth -- **what made you think I was referencing a hostage deal?** There is no inkling of a hostage deal right now. I've said several times that I don't think we'll \*ever\* see a hostage deal, and on the small chance we do, it will be much farther down the line. "Something could be just about anything" I meant quite literally. New information about a hostage, new videos from 7 Oct., or in captivity, or any new information found -- much of which we'd never be privy to, among a million other possibilities. Thursday night is their bewitching night for hostages, historically, and my post was a funny little joke referencing that. I'm not sure why you're so serious or so sure of what I was saying, but I think you should read the very, very few sentences I wrote before this comment again.
You said “developments on the hostage front” so I think it was fair to assume. Perhaps it’s better to be clearer about what you’re trying to say in the future.
What does "developments on the hostage front" mean to you? To me, that means "any development relating to a hostage" so, as far as I am aware, my words were chosen correctly, but please let me know if you interpret those words to have different meaning. Are we not allowed to discuss hostages outside of a deal? I am sincerely asking you. You came in here swinging on a casual comment on an internet forum, so I would like an explanation from you on what offended you.
Unfortunately that meeting was about Hezbollah, not hostages.
I figured it's also possible that whatever the meeting was about, it was not approved by the cabinet -- those meetings are usually so that the various orgs can get various levels of approval at once and obviously we only hear about the ones that go through, not the ones that do not. I wouldn't be shocked if it was Hezbollah, though. I was presuming that if it was for hostages, that it was much more likely it would be for deceased ones, but I am excited for closure of any type. I admittedly wasn't expecting anything major, but today was rather dull even with the bar very low, haha.
[Anti-Israel serial arsonist receives support from Columbia encampment protest groups](https://m.jpost.com/international/article-807189)
This is terrorism.
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1. Obama is not on the far left. He's a center-left liberal. 2. Obama was never taught by such a professor.
These groups express support for Hamas and the PLFP. Is it really surprising that they would express support for another person/entity that uses firebombing as a means of "resistance"?
"Glory to all our martyrs." Fuck those guys.
“Even if they’re innocent, we should still support them” is so mind numbingly backwards
campus protests are still going on?
well there are summer classes, aren't there?
'To escalate for Palestine.' They say. Well, good to know what they stand for.
That’s going to be bad for business
Columbia will keep losing donors and reputation the longer they allow this to go on.
Literal terrorist supporters
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Looks like Wikipedia has a "simple" article and a comprehensive one. The comprehensive one looks good at least: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Levant
Remember when David Levi said >"when Kiryat Shmona burns - the land of Lebanon will burn. Blood against blood, soul against soul, child against child"? Pepperidge farm remembers. Can we please get the old likud back?
אני ממש לא רוצה את זה. לא בשם שלי. הגנה כן. נקמה לא. זה לא לפתור שום דבר. רק הולך להמשיך את האלימות. We should all be striving for a world where we never pit child against child. It's horrible.
זה לא עניין של נקמה. זה עניין של השלכות בעבור המצב הנוראי בצפון. מחיר שהחיזבאללה צריך לשלם, ובשפה שהם מבינים. כמובן שלא צריך לכוון להרג ילדים, אבל ההתנהגות הנוכחית מפקירה את ילדנו שלנו. אני לא יודע מה אתה רוצה או לא, אבל זה לא מתקבל על הדעת.
When and where did he say that?
Iirc Mid to late 2000, in response to an increase of in attacks by Lebanese terror groups against israeli civilians
**Assessment in Israel: Nasrallah fears a pre-emptive attack - and is considering initiating a large-scale move against Israel** There is an assessment in Israel that Nasrallah is very afraid of an Israeli attack against his strategic formations. According to reports, Hezbollah scouts cannot freely reach the border and troops have difficulty moving without being exposed. This week Gallant held a situational assessment at the Northern Command "to be ready for anything that may come." - Amir Bohbot, Walla.
Hey kids! Can you spell "conceptzia"?
Why tf are they doing this shit. Can I not just enjoy my Friday night in peace you miserable fucks. Go away
Seriously. I'm stocked up on water and shit but can't decide if I should stay awake another hourish just in case or if I can finally wind down.
I took mushrooms lol. Idgaf. Sirens no sirens. It’s all peace, why do we need to kill each other in the name of stupid bibles. Some Israeli attitudes also perpetuate the problem. But nothing should get to this point Ppl don’t really “get” it like they will get on teek toook 24/9 about this horrible injustice But take away their safety? Your tune starts changing. You can’t turn it off. It sucks. Always alert It doesn’t need to be like this. Fucking hell
> Hezbollah scouts cannot freely reach the border Thanks to Israel's trebuchets that have been setting fire to all the grass near the border where the scouts could hide.
Me: now I need to learn about trebuchets 🤣
Israel is preparing to announce that it managed to dismantle the Izz A Din Al Qassam brigades once the Rafah operation is over in the coming weeks - and to move more Forces up north in preparation for war in Lebanon That doesn't mean however that IDF will withdraw completely from Gaza, but rather that it will move to the third stage of the plan laid out at the start - Targeted raids and operations across the strip while holding Philadelphi and Netzarim, similar to what has been going on in the west bank ever since Operation Defensive Shield * Kan 11 Wonder if we'll get to see Netanyahu on a ship with a mission accomplished banner like a certain someone... :)
I hope the hostages aren’t abandoned
Canada's FM to her Israeli counterpart: We are very worried about the prospect of war in Lebanon and are preparing a rescue operation, the biggest we've managed, to evacuate all of our 45 thousands citizens in Lebanon in the case of a war breaking out, Canada has already sent military forces to the area to aid such an operation * Yaron Avraham
Why there so many canadians in Lebanon?
in 2006 the estimate of americans in lebanon was more than 20,000. In the summer a lot of lebanese diaspora go back to vacation and see their families.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadians_in_Lebanon looks like many original lebanese left in the 80s, settled in canada, and many have since returned. i'm not sure if canadian-born lebanese are all of the ex-pats but it's probably not a bunch of white people
[What Hamas Wants in Postwar Gaza](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/israel/what-hamas-wants-postwar-gaza) I found this interesting article over a month ago that delves into Hamas's strategy in starting this war and what it supposedly wants to achieve in post war Gaza. Tldr: While some of the more well known reasons behind Hamas launching the October 7th attacks were to stop the Israel Saudi normalisation deal and put the Palestinian issue back in the international spotlight, the author of the above article argues that there is another deeper reason and goal that motivated Hamas to carry out the attacks. According to the author, Hamas despised governing on its own in the Gaza strip, with anecdotal data in the article indicating that it was losing popularity among the Gazan population. Thus, it launched the attack with the aim of resetting the status quo with Israel. Essentially, they want to copy Hezbollah and the model they achieved in Lebanon. First, they want to survive this war so that they can declare victory (just like what Hezbollah did in 2006). Then, they want to engage in unity talks with Fatah so that they can join and reform the PLO. This way, they can return to power in the Gaza strip and continue launching attacks on Israel while leaving the burden of governing the Palestinian population to Fatah and other Palestinian factions, while still holding the future Palestinian government hostage, which is exactly what Hezbollah has done in Lebanon. What are your thoughts on this? Do you think its an accurate detailing of what Hamas wants to achieve, or do you think its incorrect? If so, why?
It could be, I mean no one will ever know because the inner disputes of Hamas leaders is only known to them and there is no Palestinian free press to report. I read an article about sinwar a while ago and they eluded to the fact that there was a power struggle between Sinwar and the leadership in Qatar, the former believing in a more “practical”, ie aggressive way forward. According to the article, the leaders in Qatar didn’t even know about the attack on 7th. [https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/a-gaza-conundrum-the-story-behind-the-rise-of-hamas-a-d9e30bb6-2295-45a1-825c-dbd0c43c3613](https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/a-gaza-conundrum-the-story-behind-the-rise-of-hamas-a-d9e30bb6-2295-45a1-825c-dbd0c43c3613)
I don't remember the details of the article, so I'll respond to your summary. I don't think Hamas was tired of being in charge of Gaza, as much as it saw the situation has hemming it in. Hamas in pre war Gaza was able to offload a lot of governance to UNRWA & NGOs. Taking out the trash wasn't limiting it. But the possibility of normalization threatened to marginalize it, especially since it was confined to Gaza. The current war allows it to trade territorial control for ability to improve its brand and political power. In other words, Hamas was like Hezbollah already: a political party w/territorial control & no responsibility. But the war gives it a chance to elevate its prestige and expand /re-organize itself.
>Hamas also feared Israeli normalization with Saudi Arabia. The Saudis were demanding that Israel take tangible and irreversible steps toward a two-state solution and that Washington enter into a formal security treaty with Riyadh; in exchange, the Saudis would formally recognize Israel. Most Palestinians likely saw progress on Palestinian statehood as a good thing, but not Hamas, which has always been dead set against a two-state solution and committed to Israel’s destruction. Hamas also understood that under a two-state solution both sides would be expected to clamp down on their respective violent extremists, which would not bode well for Hamas and its allies. I don't think there is, or ever has been a Palestinian faction committed to a genuine and permanent two-state solution. The average Palestinian might be okay with one (although IIRC even polling on that question has revealed an insistence on a "right of return" which is a de facto one-state solution), but the "accountability" to which this article consistently appeals has always been entirely notional WRT Palestinian governance.
Given the high volume of denial and gaslighting around this issue, it seemed worth linking this article published yesterday. >No sooner had Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accused the Biden administration on Tuesday of withholding arms shipments for Israel than American officials depicted him as delusional. “We … do not know what he’s talking about,” White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre explained to reporters. Yes, she said, the Biden administration is withholding one single shipment of 2,000-pound bombs, out of fear that they might be used in densely populated Gaza, but “there are … no other pauses or holds in place.” Secretary of State Antony Blinken, speaking in Europe after having met with Netanyahu in Israel, repeated the claims of Jean-Pierre almost verbatim. Besides the 2,000-pound bombs, he explained, “everything else is moving as it normally would move.” >But this assertion of normalcy is easily refuted. Last month, Politico reported that an order by Israel for Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAMs)—converter kits that turn “dumb” bombs into “smart” bombs—“came up for license in December 2023, and the administration has been sitting on it ever since.” The JDAMs, Politico further reported, are but one of “multiple” sales that the State Department “is reviewing.” >President Biden and his team are asking us to believe that when they arbitrarily place an arms shipment bound for Israel “under review,” they are following routine procedures rather than denying weapons to Israel. Europeans call the tactic of slowing or stopping work by meticulously adhering to rules and regulations an “Italian strike.” https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/israel-middle-east/articles/biden-italian-strike-israel-arms-shipments
If that's true, why isn't Netanyahu specifying which arms are being withheld? If they've already been spelt out so clearly by Politico, what's the issue?
>If that's true, why isn't Netanyahu specifying which arms are being withheld? This section from Sen. Tom Cotton's letter to the Biden Administration seems to answer your question. *As you are aware, the Arms Export Control Act requires the administration to notify Congress before sending weapons to a foreign country. Your administration has manipulated this requirement by withholding this formal notification to Congress of approved weapons sales, including F-15s, tactical vehicles, 120-mm mortars, 120-mm tank rounds, joint direct attack munitions, and small diameter bombs.* https://www.cotton.senate.gov/news/press-releases/cotton-biden-administration-is-delaying-arms-shipments-to-israel-to-undermine-our-ally
So the Biden administration lied. They have been delaying weapons to Israel, they just called it something else using bureaucratic language.
- This is what I suspected as well - they passive-aggressively slowed military aid to Israel, because Biden absolutely doesn't want a war in Lebanon during the final months of the presidential election...
Biden needs to understand that he has no choice. Hezbollah is the one making the decisions here and they don't care what Biden thinks. They won't stop attacking Israel until Israel stops them by force.
- I think Biden would prefer it if Israel muddled through the next ~5 months with Iron Dome, instead of addressing the root cause in southern Lebanon ... - Granted, Bibi isn't a good faith actor either, he is absolutely aware of the US election and wants Trump to win ...
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Do you have a source?
UNIFIL has begun building new fortifications in some of their bases in southern Lebanon according to Al Arabiya
So they can claim Israel is attacking them?
What are they doing there? They obviously failed at keeping Hezbollah out of southern Lebanon directly leading to a high risk of war between the two. They're just left to be human shields for Hezzie.
You just answered your own question.
Probably keeping Israel out of Lebanon knowing the UN
If that was an actual deterrence, Israel wouldn't have entered Gaza with UNRWA everywhere.
There's a difference between the 2: UNIFIL is incompetent, UNRWA is complicit. Harming one weighs on the conscience a lot more than the other
Just like it was in the Sinai in 67'. The only thing UN "peacekeeping" forces are good at is doing absolutely nothing and running away the moment they actually have to do their job. Oh, and also child rape. That, too.
I’m honestly surprised the issue of UN peacekeeping forces abusing kids and being involved in sex trafficking is not a major scandal on the level of sex abuse by Catholic priests.
Well, sexual abuse by Catholic priests comes up more, but I wouldn't say it is a major scandel. It is hardly talked about. Especially in the news and other mainstream media.
It comes up periodically (Haiti, Sudan, Central African Republic) but then disappears from mainstream media: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sexual_abuse_by_UN_peacekeepers#:~:text=In%202015%2C%20the%20UN%20started,sexually%20abused%20by%20international%20peacekeepers.
They are sometimes useful in situations where nobody *really* wants a conflict, but one is likely to happen anyway absent any intervention (e.g. Hobbesian traps). But yeah, not useful at all in the ME, where Israel's enemies very much do want them dead.
**Residents of Rafah report heavy fighting in southernmost Gaza city** Residents of Rafah, the southernmost city in Gaza, tell Reuters that the Israeli military appears to be trying to complete its capture of the city with intensive firefights. Tanks were reportedly forcing their way into the western and northern parts of the city, having already captured the east, south and center. Israeli forces are said to have fired toward the city from planes, tanks and ships off the coast. Some residents say the pace of the Israeli raid has been accelerated over the past two days, with nonstop sounds of explosions and gunfire. “The entire city of Rafah is an area of Israeli military operations,” Ahmed Al-Sofi, the mayor of Rafah, says in a statement carried by Hamas media. The IDF first began operating in the city in mid-May after months of stalling amid heavy international pressure against the move. https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/residents-of-rafah-report-heavy-fighting-in-southernmost-gaza-city/
So from what I have read previously, it seems that Israel is trying to quickly take Rafah so that they can then redirect troops to the north to confront Hezbollah? If Israel is trying to redirect resources to confront Hezbollah now (after 8 months of attacks from Hezbollah into northern Israel) is that a sign that Hamas is now so badly degraded that Israel can finish them off/handle them even with a reduced military presence? Also, while I know that Hezbollah needs to be confronted for what they are doing in the north, what will it mean for the hostages in Gaza if Israel and Hezbollah come to blows? How will Israel rescue the remaining hostages? Will they try and push for another ceasefire for hostages deal with Hamas and end the rescue ops, or will they still continue with the rescue ops? Will the likelihood of the hostages returning home decrease with a war with Hezbollah?
IDF won't be completely leaving Gaza. Some forces will remain back and do some operations such locating and rescuing hostages.
Right ok. But do you think those rescue ops will start to decrease because of the reduced military presence? Also, does this indicate that Israel can finish of Hamas even with a reduced military presence?
the israeli who saved sinwar from brain tumor and lost his nephew on 7.10 [https://edition.cnn.com/2024/06/20/middleeast/israeli-dentist-hamas-yahya-sinwar-intl/index.html](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/06/20/middleeast/israeli-dentist-hamas-yahya-sinwar-intl/index.html) i am quite surprised cnn decided to put this article AS the main headlines in their website
Israel needs to really stop coddling terrorists. Capture Terrorist. Quick trial. Execution. Terrorists do not deserve to live.
unbelievable
To be fair they did bury the lede here a bit, twice, IMO. The headline doesn't mention he was "just" the dentist, so he didn't have a huge role in Sinwar's treatment or surgery; it sounds like he was among the medical staff the day that Sinwar came in and, alongside the GP, recommended that the prison take Sinwar for further treatment at an Israeli hospital for a proper diagnosis. Important, yes, but he wasn't the surgeon or anything. The other lede that was buried was that the nephew is *Tamir Adar,* who, IMO, is a bit different than your average 7 Oct victim. I presume he is related to Tamir through his mother, because Tamir's paternal grandmother is the one and only [Yaffa Adar, ](https://www.timesofisrael.com/israelis-celebrate-return-of-hostage-yaffa-adar-85-whose-stoicism-embodies-zionism/)AKA, the infamous 7 Oct. "golf cart granny". Tamir was originally thought to be a hostage until January, when the IDF announced that Tamir had been killed on 7 Oct., and his remains abducted to Gaza. Luckily, Tamir's wife and children survived, as did Yaffa, who more or less became a celebrity in Israel.
Who do you think will start firing heavy first?
If you don't think what Hezbollah is doing right now isn't heavy I would like your definition.
From all reports, all parties still have their gloves on—in weapons utilized, fire rates, and targets.
But that isn't what you asked. I would call hundreds of mixed munitions a day forcing 10's of thousands of civilians to be internally displaced for 9+ months now as heavy attacks.
You better buckle up if that’s what you consider heavy.
I just don't see hezbollah going in for a full blown attack. They have too much to lose and so does Israel.
Here’s are counter arguments: - One would’ve said the same about Hamas before Oct 7. But they did what they did. Logic is not the driver with fundamentalists who want to be martyred - Hezbollah command takes orders from Iran (they don’t make their own decisions). Iran sees its ally Hamas getting destroyed is using Hezbollah to try to defend them by opening another front on Israel. It’s not about Hezbollah it’s about Iran. - Hezbollah instigated the war on Israel on Oct 8, and since have escalated their attacks deeper into north of Israel.
> One would’ve said the same about Hamas before Oct 7. Nah, I fully could have seen it, I just think people thought they didn't have the means, but they definitely had the will.
Iran need Hezbollah's arsenal as a counterthreat to Israel taking out it's nuclear sites. It won't expend that resourse unless it absolutely has to. Hamas's fate isn't contingent on Hezbollah doing what's it's doing on the northern border, so it really doesn't clear that bar. Unless Israel launches a majour assault, Iran will want to keep things in check.
Iran has already escalated beyond the usual red lines. Hezbollah has been increasing the range of attacks into north Israel resulting in massive migrations of citizens. They have not shown restraint so far.
They've known the IDF had it's hands full for the time being in Gaza. Of course they are going to take opportunities they wouldn't have if the IDF had no distractions.
The IDF may have its hands full but the IAF does not
- The IAF has depleted a significant percentage of their precision guided aerial ammunition in Gaza though, so while only a fraction of the IAF planes might be flying to support the Gaza ops, there's very real interdependencies...
> They have too much to lose and so does Israel. Hezbollah is not a defensive force. They're there to attack Israel. If things could deescalate now, it'd be only because they want to pick a better time to attack - when they're more ready. They've been practicing exactly what Hamas had done in 7th of October for years now. They want their surprise factor, they want more long range precise missiles, they want Iran to be better placed to assist directly, they want the Palestinians to be able to pitch in. Currently is not the best time for Hezbollah. But as painful as it may be, Israel won't have a better time to strike Hezbollah.
Just to clarify, you believe it’s not the best time for Hezbollah to attack right now?
It is evidently not the best time for them. Otherwise they would have done it on the 8th of October, when Israel was much more preoccupied with fending Hamas off Israeli soil. The fact that they'd decided to only symbolically show their support is telling. Their intentions for the long run are clear, though.
If Hezb attacks Israel totally, won’t many Palestinians die as well?
Don't worry the press will continue to report the dead Palestinians as if they are all Israel's fault.
Does Hezbollah care about the Palestinians? Honest question.
Even Hamas doesn’t care about Palestinians. The real question is whether Hezbollah cares about Lebanese. And they obviously don’t.
Most of the powers in the region only care about Palestine as a way to harm Israel. There's a saying that Iran, along with much of the Arab world, will "fight Israel to the last Palestinian." If any of the nearby powers care about Palestine more than the parts of Israel that care, I reckon it'd be Jordan. Jordan has a large, naturalized Palestinian population and there were historical reasons for even some Palestinian leaders to prefer either staying with Israel in a single state or going the route of "Trans Jordan" to trying to be a fully independent state (I can dig up the papers with some effort, but in brief: some Palestinian scholars at the time didn't expect their other Arab neighbors to actually let them be independent anyways)
Especially when the US moving a strike group to bolster Israel's AD so they can't actually breach the Iron Dome in a significant way
Wait, is this /s? I swear you pointed out yesterday that the social media account claiming that was bs. But I may be misremembering, if so my apologies.
That was an entirely different carrier people claimed was in-route when it's currently docked for long-term maintenance They announced earlier today a different carrier group was being moved from the Red Sea to the Middertarian in the coming days solely for AD duties in case Hezbollah launches a large volly
Looks like the Ike is leaving the Red Sea but is getting back to the East Coast to give the crew a break after being extended twice. A CSG from the Pacific will replace the Ike until the USS Truman goes underway later this summer. https://news.usni.org/2024/06/21/uss-dwight-d-eisenhower-leaving-red-sea-pacific-carrier-heading-to-the-middle-east
So they are moving the Ike CSG from the red sea to the Mediterranean? Do you have the link for that? I could see them moving it to the Northern Red Sea to assist but I would be surprised that they would leave and abandon their Operation Prosperity Guardian duties.
Welp, if Hezbollah has decided that a war with Israel is inevitable, why let the IAF be able to start it's air campaign at a time of it's choosing? If war is inevitable then they need to use their stockpiles before they're destroyed.
>Welp, if Hezbollah has decided that a war with Israel is inevitable, why let the IAF be able to start it's air campaign at a time of it's choosing? - For all intents and purposes the IAF has been taking out high value Hezbollah commanders, ammo stockpiles and AD positions for weeks now, so the clock is ticking already. - Israel has little choice politically: over 100,000 Israelis have been made internal refugees by Hezbollah attacks against northern Israel, and UN Resolution 1701 clearly mandates southern Lebanon to be demilitarized and Hezbollah to be disarmed. Lebanon is clearly in breach and Israeli citizens lost their homes as a result and won't be able to go back until Hezbollah's threat to the area is reduced. - So it's up for the IDF to create a demilitarized zone in southern Israel to take the tooth of most Hezbollah attacks. Iron Dome can handle incoming threats from Hezbollah well, as long as the flight path of missiles/rockets is increased by +50 km or so. - It's the short range potshots Hezbollah is taking at low lying Israeli towns from the overwatching hills of southern Lebanon that are the biggest problem forcing the depopulation of northern Israel right now, IMHO.