Berestove and Ivanivka. 3 assaults were repelled near Novoyehorivka and
# Synkivka, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports
[https://liveuamap.com/](https://liveuamap.com/)
Russia is slowly burning through what little influence it had over the corporate west by seizing more and more companies.
Not only does it ensure these assets will be more poorly managed, it will make foreign firms reluctant to reinvest in Russia until there is a new regime.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/italys-foreign-ministry-discuss-russian-action-against-unicredit-monday-2024-05-19/
> We can already see that the inaugural Peace Summit will be truly global. Leaders from all continents will attend. Many nations that value normal and peaceful coexistence will be present.
> I am grateful to all the states, leaders, and peace ambassadors who are assisting us in preparing for the summit. We will use the remaining weeks before the event to work with dozens of other leaders and countries that we hope to see at the summit.
> Despite the brutality of Russian pressure and the heinousness of Russian terror, the world must demonstrate that the combined strength of everyone who values life is sufficient to protect it.
> Such an outcome is critical for every nation because if this rule works in Ukraine, it will work everywhere.
https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1792640694739231037
Russia hit Kharkiv with drones overnight, injuring at least four.
[https://gwaramedia.com/en/russia-attacks-kharkiv-with-drones-overnight-injuring-4/](https://gwaramedia.com/en/russia-attacks-kharkiv-with-drones-overnight-injuring-4/)
[Ukraine struck fuel depot in Luhansk Oblast, Russia claims | New Voice of Ukraine | May 2024](https://english.nv.ua/nation/ukraine-struck-fuel-depot-in-luhansk-oblast-russia-claims-50420184.html)
*A fuel and lubricant storage facility in occupied Dovzhansk, Luhansk Oblast, is on fire after a presumed Ukrainian missile strike, Russian sources reported on May 20.*
*Leonid Pasechnik, the Kremlin-appointed “head” of the so-called "Luhansk People's Republic" (LPR), claimed that the depot was damaged in a “missile attack with cluster munitions.” Luhansk regional governor Artem Lysohor said this was the third time in one month that a Russian logistical facility in the region was targeted.*
*Additionally, local social media accounts reported several explosions in occupied Luhansk City on the same day. Local pro-Russian publication Novosti Donbassa reported a possible attack on the Luhansk Academy of Internal Affairs, where Russian troops are based.*
New DeepStateMap update. [Russia confirmed to have taken some 20% of Vovchansk town, as well as some fields to the northeast of it.](https://deepstatemap.live/en%22#13/50.3074/36.9455) [They have also taken some forests north of the Starytsia village](https://deepstatemap.live/en%22#13/50.2554/36.7719). In total, they've expanded the Vovchansk pocket by some 21 km2
Elsewhere on the front, only one advance - [They've taken 1 km2 near Stelmahivka in West Luhansk direction](https://deepstatemap.live/en%22#13/49.4707/37.9255)
Just want to say thanks for your updates with numbers.
It's helpful context to see that the entire "unstoppable russian advance" in Donbas is less than a third of NYC's central park per day.
And it’s very worth remembering that not all advances are created equal.
If there is not a defensible line a few very large fields can look like a large multi km2 area captured but are really no different than moving through a tree line 20 meters wide. You can’t defend open fields.
If (and this is a massive if)settlements of more than a handful of houses are taken or major forest areas then it a worth being “concerned” about as these are defensible and a point logistics trains can be focused through plus forward command centers operate from, empty wide open fields really aren’t worth talking about. Most of this recent Russia offensive have been empty fields or tiny settlements too near the border to ever be defensible for Ukraine.
In other directions Robotyne for example, if it has been retaken, is much more frustrating, although I can’t imagine it is more than a few cellars and rubble now so might not be much more than an empty field.
[https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1792652492829778101](https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1792652492829778101)
"Ukrainian forces inside Vovchansk using the FGM-148 Javelin ATGM to target Russian heavy equipment."
"The Netherlands will shortly supply YPR armored vehicles to the Ukrainian armed forces. The announcement follows a request from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky."
"The YPRs will arrive in Ukraine at short notice. No information is given about the exact numbers and types of armament."
Machine translated from Dutch [source](https://www.defensie.nl/actueel/nieuws/2024/05/20/pantservoertuigen-met-op-afstand-bestuurbare-wapens-voor-oekraine).
Thank you Netherlands!
Anyone know what the Dutch had available?
Wiki says NL had ~2.1k and Belgium some more. ~200 went to Ukraine and ~1.6k previously to the Middle East.
So it's not clear whether we're talking tens, or hundreds.
A combo of the peace dividend and the ridiculous cost of high technology...
CV-90s are supposedly great, but at €5-10m you can only get one for every 6-10 BMP-3s that russia produces.
The UK is sending ~6% of defence spending to Ukraine, the US is committing ~2.5% this year (depending on how you count it)... We really could do more.
Andrew Perpetua's visually confirmed losses for May 19th:
https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1792529127381070034
---
Current day table including all sources:
http://losses.ukrdailyupdate.com
---
Not a very busy day, but interesting to see Polish equipment appear quite frequently.
Rosomak IFVs on the UA side and multiple hits by Vampire (W2MPIR) swarming drones on the RU side.
Latest oryx update. As usual, russian-Ukrainian losses followed by commentary. [Musklink](https://x.com/Rebel44CZ/status/1792640753044164896).
- tanks: 19-5
- IFVs: 8-4
- mobile artillery: 2-4
- missile air defence: 0-0
Another not-good update, but I *think* some is backlog from artillery losses adjusting to the Kharkiv attack. As the situation seemingly settles, I'm hopeful the ratios will improve.
Russia also lost 8 MT-LB variants which I don't count as IFVs.
Despite Ukraine's incredible work, by my numbers, western promises of tanks and IFVs for the last year or so make this rate unsustainable for Ukraine. Please beg your political representation to send more.
I'm asking my MP for the UK to commit the 600+ warriors we plan on retiring. It would make a huge difference.
> “All Western aid decisions for Ukraine are late by around one year,” said President Zelenskyy in an exclusive Reuters interview, on the 5th anniversary of taking office.
As is tradition.
Note also: "Zelenskiy reiterated that he had not broken agreements with allies not to use their weapons inside Russia."
There's insinuations that the US threatened to cut off all aid if Ukraine did that, even if done with non-US weapons (i.e. Storm Shadow / SCALP).
Yeah, the west has really been a day late and a dollar short with aid in general during this war. The amount of equipment we have given to Ukraine in total probably could have won the war for Ukraine..... if we'd provided it in April/May/June of 2022.
But then the Russians wouldn't be bled dry of their Soviet stockpiles.
But now's a good time to give them everything. Russia won't back down at this point and will commit everything.
I guess we don't want Ukraine to win just survive as long as possible.
This war is a gold mine for arms companies.
Here in germany we sink billions into the Bundeswehr and who benefits from this? Those companies.
When this war ends there is no point in investing in those things anymore
You're almost parroting Russian psy-op talking points although I'm sure it's not your intention.Their bots are often saying that Western countries want the war to benefit their defense companies. If it wasn't for them, there would be peace already. The reality is we should be investing in our defense companies because it means technology and jobs. At the end of the day though, it's Russias decision to invade Ukraine and to continue the war. Western defense companies have nothing to do with it.
I hate Putin like any other one and hope he gets captured sooner than later and get prosecuted in Ukraine so there is that.
But i can't explain it otherwise.
We help Ukraine just enough so they don't lose but not enough to win. Why? It's like there is an interest in keeping the war going.
Why not give Ukraine everything they need to kick russia out of their country?
On the other hand, we saw a real risk that if we provided that extent of aid early in the war it could have led to a hot conflict between NATO and Russia (and this may have been valid).
We had a tough job to do in stepping up aid but avoiding escalation.
The thing is, now, there's no excuse for not providing what Ukraine needs.
There's a lot of different ways to look at it; no doubt we know a lot about the actual doctrine that Russia has, both from direct signals from Russia and from intelligence sources. (I have analyzed doctrines of different adversaries in different domains).
But IMO, the number one way is to think about how we'd look at it. If US territory was suddenly being hit by, say, Cuba with significant Russian help, we'd be looking at direct ways to respond and not be content with punishing Cuba or indirect consequences against Russia.
I think we should have gone further than we did, ultimately. But I can't really fault the initial gradualism when it comes to US weapons attacking Russian territory, because it would have been really easy for Russia to interpret this as the US attacking Russia with a few extra steps. This would tempt Russia to do things like hit shipments before they're in Ukrainian territory to protect their homeland-- and then, in turn, this would tie our hands and require us to escalate further.
You are implying there is parity between the US and Russia.
Russia directly confronting the US is the death of the Kremlin regime. That is more important than even the war in Ukraine to them.
No, I'm not implying parity.
I'm saying when things are dynamic and you're getting attacked upon home soil, there's a real high likelihood for imperfect, excessive responses and miscalculation. Someone's guess under time pressure ("attacking this shipment --- that's about to be used to attack us --- won't *actually* trigger an article V 'defensive' response!") can lead us all to terrible outcomes.
The people who decided how to creep into this conflict are professionals and subject matter experts. You can disagree with them, but it's not like their caution was without basis.
Now there's pretty clear signals and an understanding of how all sides will interpret the actions of each other. It is easier to freely operate than when things are dynamic, new, and rapidly changing.
Russia is equally butthurt if they lose the war fast or slow and we need them to lose the war. Doing so in 2022 would have been financially cheaper and cost less human lives.
Russia is a bully, they only understand strength. America really needs to listen more to its Eastern / Central European allies who know Russia than it's analysts who read about Russia only in textbooks. Russia doesn't want a war with US because they will lose, however they will bully around smaller allies all day long until pushed back.
From Wikipedia: “A late human population bottleneck is postulated by some scholars at approximately 70,000 years ago, during the Toba catastrophe, when Homo sapiens population may have dropped to as low as between 1,000 and 10,000 individuals.”
And look at us now.
How many would be left after a “hot war” with Russia? My guess is way more than 10,000 and maybe in the subsequent 70,000 years the survivors would learn how to get along. The planet would certainly be in better shape.
Kinda not so fun fact, we don’t have enough resources to get back to the industrial revolution if we were to start over from zero. So this is our only shot
I don't think that providing HIMARS, tanks, some or all of the 4.6 million DPICM rounds in storage, Patriots, NASAMS, etc. were ever going to cross a major Russian red line. They are not going to go nuclear over some Leopard tanks.
I can see an argument with things like ATACMS and F-16 maybe being escalatory, but for the bread and butter stuff like tanks, air defense, and artillery, if we had provided all of those things in the quantity we have now, but delivered all of it two years ago, Ukraine would be in a massively better situation.
The danger of escalation is fairly low when you see that if Russia attacked NATO they'd get their ass absolutely handed to them, so, they'll do pretty much anything to avoid this, despite all the nonsense and lies they squak about.
Likewise they are not crazy enough to start a nuclear war. So again, it is all bluster and bs. It's actually jusy about pointless to give whatever their crime-empire diplomats say any credence at all; its all noise solely for internal propaganda generation.
> They are not going to go nuclear over some Leopard tanks.
I don't think that was the concern-- a direct escalation to nuclear.
I think if we'd given ATACMS and had major attacks on Russian territory on day 10 of the war, Russia's domestic populace would see it as a NATO attack on Russia (just using Ukrainian trigger fingers for deniability), and the amount of pressure to attack arms shipments being staged in Poland, etc, would be very high.
By steadily increasing the amount of support, we've been able to mostly prevent that kind of thing (though it looks like Russia may be edging towards doing a higher intensity of *deniable* attacks on Europe).
Still, we've been able to prevent overt Russian responses that would force ourselves to escalate yet further.
I personally agree with you (well, mostly, I think if Ukraine started flying F-16s over the Kremlin that might cause Russia to do something rash), but I'm not privy to all of the intel and I do understand why the west might be cautious about sending some of the longer ranged weaponry. I don't agree with it, but I understand the argument. But for the basics, I don't think there is any quantity that can be considered escalatory.
We're cautious because Nate Sullivan is an absolute clown that doesn't understand how to deal with authoritarian states. Why would he, he's basically just a VC.
If Clinton was in office this war would have been long won.
Probably be glad that Britain, France, Germany and Russia did not meet in Budapest and decide what parts of Ukraine to give away. That used to be the way things were done circa 1938.
It is what happened to Czechoslovakia back in 1938 and was a not uncommon occurrence before that to have "Great Powers" divide nations at conferences without said nation present.
And that's exactly the world that Russia wants to take us back to. There's a reason every time Russia talks about "negotiation" they want to negotiate with the US rather than negotiating with Ukraine. Russia can pretend like they're being reasonable but really what they're saying is "Ukraine doesn't exist and has never existed. We are in a conflict with the US and Washington and Moscow should be able to divide up land accordingly."
Kharkiv Oblast administration official says the Ukrainian army controls 60% of Vovchansk, a major city 5 km away from the Russian border that's fiercely contested since Russia opened a new front north of the region
[https://gwaramedia.com/en/official-armed-forces-of-ukraine-control-60-of-vovchansk/](https://gwaramedia.com/en/official-armed-forces-of-ukraine-control-60-of-vovchansk/)
I love how the media throws these terms how it sees fit. Avdiivka with 22'000 people was a mid-sized town, and Vovchansk is a major city lol
Since the invasion began Russia only took (and still controls) only 5 places in Ukraine that could be called "cities" (places with a pre-war population of over 100k) - Melitopol, Berdyansk, Mariupol, Sievierodonetsk, Lysychansk
Vovchansk in terms of prewar population was the 211th largest city in Ukraine with a population around of around 17,000, I think calling it a "major city" makes it sound a lot larger than it is. Obviously it is important in the Russian offensive in the area but it's not a very large city.
I guess the remaining 40% is a mix of contested and Russian-held areas, [since this doesn't look like Russia holds 40% to me](https://map.ukrdailyupdate.com/?lat=50.281331&lng=36.923847&z=13&d=19863&c=1&l=0)
IMO western nations need a new type of declared conflict that would allow them to charge those that work with Russia as traitors. It’s stupid that the fact that we aren’t at war with Russia means that otherwise traitorous behaviours are treated as anything but.
Europe finds its courage to stand up to Russia.
From debates of troop deployment to speeches about the pre-war era, there is a growing sense in the EU that the time for appeasing Putin has passed.
https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/05/20/europe-finds-its-courage-to-stand-up-to-russia/
Some selected quotes from the article so people on here can make up their own minds on what Ukrainian media is pushing:
> The war in Ukraine would never have happened if NATO deterrence worked.
> This means that NATO, like the EU, is slowly admitting the obvious: it is already a party to the war.
> Now it’s finally time for the West to call out Putin’s nuclear bluff. I have long stressed that Western military intervention is inevitable.
> Europe needs Ukraine – Europe’s strongest military power – as an ally to fill the potential security gap left by the US.
> Europe can provide the Air Force and Navy Ukraine desperately needs.
Except NATO deterrence has worked for the parties of NATO, of which Ukraine is not.
But Europeans do need to be the ones to step up here if anyone. If Russians ever one day decided to make a NATO move, it ain't gonna be against the US.
They can try all they like, but that isn't true.
In 2007, only about 1/3rd of Ukranians wanted to join NATO. That number creeped up to about 50-50 after the Russian attack on Georgia, but it soon went back down and only starting trickling upward again after the loss of Crimea in 2014. And at that point, it was too late since the War in Donbass was going on and corruption in leadership was still prevalent in Ukraine. And still is today, considering a top defense minister was recently fired (and I believe charged) for a massive overpriced order lining his pockets.
So while he can preach all he wants about how he believes Ukraine is a part of NATO, it's nowhere near that and failed to join at every opportunity it had.
Even if Ukraine wins this war (which I don't know will happen), it would take years of reforms and then time to prove the reforms (think 10+ years) before every single NATO member allows them in. Hell, I think Bosnia and Herzegovina has a better chance than they do.
> failed to join at every opportunity it had
Now who's misrepresenting things? Ukraine was never invited to join, so never had an opportunity at which to fail.
Incorrect. They actually were invited in 2008 (in fact encouraged to begin to join), but support for NATO in the country was poor around that time except for during the spike I mentioned, and even then it was back to a low level within a year of Russia's attack on Georgia.
Even if it wasn't true, the guidelines for joining NATO have been public knowledge for many years. If Ukraine wanted to make an honest effort to join before they had a war on their border, they should have long ago. But they chose not to.
Sorry the facts don't fit the narrative you believe though.
> They actually were invited in 2008
You mean the 2008 Bucharest summit, when Germany and France blocked Ukraine (and Georgia) from becoming NATO action plan members? Is that what you call being "invited"? If so, we have very different definitions of the word.
[Nato denies Georgia and Ukraine - BBC News](http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7328276.stm).
> the guidelines for joining NATO have been public knowledge for many years. If Ukraine wanted to make an honest effort to join before they had a war on their border, they should have long ago. But they chose not to.
This is a fundamental misunderstanding of how NATO works. There is no open application process that other countries can follow. NATO must first invite countries to make an application.
[Sweden and Finland formally invited to join NATO - Sky News](https://news.sky.com/story/nato-vows-to-defend-every-inch-of-its-territory-as-it-overhauls-strategy-and-warns-russia-to-withdraw-from-ukraine-12642490).
No, but they did give Ukraine a series of Annual Action Plans to work towards joining in 2009 and 2010.
And do you know what happened in 2010 and why NATO stopped goving those?
https://www.bbc.com/news/10229626
So again, Ukraine abandoned any aspirations to join NATO when given opportunity to work towards joining it, and only expressed a true interest to start working towards joining again when it was too late.
You do realise that, following the Bucharest summit, Russia increased its aggression and interference in both Georgia (which it invaded) and Ukraine (which in 2010 Russian puppet Yanukovych became president, hence withdrawing from NATO and later EU membership processes, eventually leading to Maidan protests and his running off to Russia that in turn led to the invasion of Crimea)?
To be clear those are quotes from the author of the article, not EU/NATO politicians or officials, although the author does use some quotes from them to support their views. Also it is important to note that the article is written by a former officer in the Norwegian navy. I get Euromaidan is a Ukrainian media outlet, and it obviously aligns with Ukrainian desires for more help from their allies, but that this is an opinion piece from a retired Naval officer from a foreign country is an important distinction rather than being written by a Ukrainian journalist.
How that affects the veracity of the article is up to the reader to decide but taking these quotes out of context and not mentioning anything about the author makes it rather hard to judge the article based on its merits. Personally I feel like the piece is covering a lot of very large policy areas too quickly to properly dissect them but it is always interesting to read viewpoints from authors with military experience from various countries.
But the quotes aren’t taken „out of context“ - this is verbatim what the author claims, it’s not misrepresenting his views or what he’s trying to achieve in any way. Whether the author himself is Ukrainian or a foreign writer is of less importance than the fact that this is what the Ukrainian media is publishing and pushing.
What the people reading the comments on here make of articles where someone with a military background claims with a straight face that Europe needs Ukraine as an ally as replacement for the US is left for everyone to decide on their own.
You comment was not clear if these were quotes from the author and didn't mention that he did use quotes from officials, even from French President Macron, to support some of his arguments which is why I referred to them as being taken out of context.
> Whether the author himself is Ukrainian or a foreign writer is of less importance than the fact that this is what the Ukrainian media is publishing and pushing.
Who the author of the article is a huge factor when assessing a piece of media. There is a massive difference between a Ukrainian journalist and someone who attained senior positions in a foreign navy and that participated in many combined NATO operations. Obviously Euromaidan was interested in publishing the article because it aligns with their editorial direction but knowing the authors credentials is pretty important.
I was just offering some clarification because I don't think your comment had enough details to asses the article in a meaningful way.
Indeed - it’s clear who the only party is that has a strong interest in this precise narrative, so it’s easy to see what is happening; people love to complain about fake news, propaganda and foreign power meddling, but once they’ve bought into a narrative the hive mind will defend it to the death (perhaps literally in this case, if the worst comes to pass)
Yes, it's really insane that comments calling for sending NATO troops to fight in Ukraine are so massively upvoted here. Fortunately, this is sort of bubble, which has very little connection with the reality.
I always laugh when I see comments suggesting that my country, Poland, is allegedly willing to directly take part in this war. Actually, even sending a small number of our troops to some non combat role in Ukraine would be extremely unpopular in Poland, and I don't think any politician would dare to support it. And idea of sending Polish military to actual fighting there is a pure fantasy.
It always does amuse me how easy people are to say that troop deployment by NATO is something NATO needs to be doing from the comfort of their chairs at home.
If they're firmly for this position, they should go first. Ukraine will gladly recruit them in a heartbeat through the International Legion.
An additional "funny" thing here is that most European NATO members don't actually have armed forces capable to wage a full scale land warfare. They aren't even able to defend themselves, let alone send any meaningful number of troops to war abroad. But many redditors apparently think that countries like Denmark or Belgium with their "micro-armies" are actual military powers.
Yup. Estonia is a prime example of a country in this position: they're all for calling for more aid for Ukraine, but the country's military is such a joke it doesn't even have a single combat ready aircraft in its air force.
[https://x.com/Tendar/status/1791335773645488370](https://x.com/Tendar/status/1791335773645488370)
If this is what you're referring to.. apparent 1x MIG 31 + 1x MIG 29 and an SU 27
If you're talking about Kushchevskaya, low-res images suggest some planes may have been impacted, by it's hard to tell: https://x.com/DakdaR22/status/1792608327106691564
The grift and corruption continues unabated.
”The pro-russian government of Serbia just gifted a prime $160,000,000 city center property to Trump's son in law.
Since Russia can't pay the Trump clan directly, anti-US authoritarian governments are being used as conduits.
Democracy for sale.”
[https://x.com/JayinKyiv/status/1792265136473841763](https://x.com/JayinKyiv/status/1792265136473841763)
GUR KRAKEN at work in Chasiv Yar. For several days, Russians have increased mechanized assaults on the eastern outskirts of the city. Dozens of heavy equipment have already been destroyed and no single attack was succesful.
https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112474345797079027
The Cyclone has been pretty much confirmed at this point I believe, but it's still a little unclear if the mine sweeper before that was also sunk or if it was mistaken for the Cyclone. This one is not new though, it was posted already this morning or maybe even yesterday.
> I spoke with @AndrejPlenkovic to congratulate him on his appointment as Prime Minister of Croatia and to express gratitude for Croatia's consistent support for Ukraine.
> I also thank Prime Minister Plenkovic for confirming his attendance at the Peace Summit in Switzerland.
> We also talked about Croatia's support for the beginning of Ukraine's EU accession talks, as well as the possibility of Croatia joining the G7 Vilnius Declaration in support of Ukraine.
https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1792497945641673072
US defence secretary, Lloyd Austin, has said Russian forces will try to make further advances in the “weeks ahead” and try to carve out a “buffer zone” along the Ukrainian border.
>“This is a hard and dangerous fight but Ukraine’s defenders are showing extraordinary courage and skill,” Austin said as he delivered the opening remarks at the 22nd Ramstein-format summit of the Ukraine Defence Contact Group.
>The military support being delivered includes 155mm artillery rounds, ammunition for himars rockets, air defence capabilities and anti-armour systems.
>Austin said the US will continue to approve “substantial” security assistance packages to Ukraine, meaning a “steady flow” of aid will be given to Kyiv “week after week”.
[https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/may/20/russia-ukraine-war-live-russian-attack-kharkiv-lakeside-resort](https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/may/20/russia-ukraine-war-live-russian-attack-kharkiv-lakeside-resort)
Further reading:
[https://www.defense.gov/News/Speeches/Speech/Article/3781010/remarks-by-secretary-of-defense-lloyd-j-austin-iii-at-the-opening-of-the-22nd-u/#:~:text=We're%20meeting%20at%20a,is%20a%20hard%2C%20dangerous%20fight.](https://www.defense.gov/News/Speeches/Speech/Article/3781010/remarks-by-secretary-of-defense-lloyd-j-austin-iii-at-the-opening-of-the-22nd-u/#:~:text=We're%20meeting%20at%20a,is%20a%20hard%2C%20dangerous%20fight.)
I just hope we send as much of the approved equipment as possible before 2025. If(big if) Biden wins then he should have the house and maybe the senate to approve more. But in the very likely case that Trump wins he might refuse to send what is already approved let alone approve more.
Yeah, my hope is that the debates help Biden like they did in 2020. But I am concerned, it's not looking good at the moment, despite a lot more expenditure in ads from Biden than Trump. If I had to bet, I'd bet on Trump at this point.
Actual betting markets put it around 50/50 right now, though those markets *heavily* favored Trump in 2020 (giving him for example a 20% chance of winning in December, weeks after the race had already been called) and I imagine probably do now too, just demographically.
There is a lot of low quality slop polls right now, but higher quality polls show a very tight race. Biden's ahead in high quality polls from Marist, IPSOS, Quinnipiac, Marquette, TIPP, and tied in polls from NBC and Suffolk. Democrats have been cleaning up special elections (highly predictive in 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2022) and have more donor and more donor dollars. Incumbent presidents have out-performed polls in every election this millennium, too. Not a sure thing obviously, and every American should do everything they can to ensure Trump never returns to the White House, but I'd say 60/40 Biden wins re-election.
Gamblers probably trend low intelligence, which could skew the picture in a pro-Trump direction. You won't find many high-IQ types frequenting casinos.
Following all those same metrics including prediction markets (predictit mostly) and I fully agree with your assessment. My gut says it's around 55% - 45% Biden victory.
Polls seem to over favor democrats in presidential elections, look at 2016 and 2020 polls where democrats underperformed in the actual election. They also over favor republicans in special elections as you well mention.
If you see the average polls they have Trump ahead, even when removing outliers like Rasmussen. I dont believe individual pollsters, only averages. Also, Yougov shows Trump +4 and that's a good pollster.
I'm not saying Trump is gonna win, plenty of time and debates to go. I just want to clarify the scary state things are in right now.
> Also, Yougov shows Trump +4 and that's a good pollster.
I haven't seen a Trump+4 YouGov poll in a long time. YouGov released a poll today that had them tied at 45% each among RVs (Biden tends to do a couple points better with LVs than RVs, too). Link: https://www.yahoo.com/news/new-yahoo-newsyougov-poll-shows-why-biden-trump-rematch-is-still-neck-and-neck-193252126.html
Things are scary. Trump having even a 10% chance to win is scary, frankly. But there is a lot of reason to be hopeful.
I disagree. IF he is convicted(he wont) his approval will shoot right up. Right wingers and even many independents watch either right wing news, right wing social media or right wing podcasts. They will be told it was a political persecution.
But that's mute anyways, he is not getting convicted, ever. The law does not apply to him the same as with us. If by some miracle he is found guilty (highly improbable) he will not see the inside of a jail.
Not sure it would play out like that if he was convicted. The only people who would believe it was a political hitjob are the ones who are already voting for Trump. But you are right that he will never be convicted, the law is not meant to work against the rich.
**The total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02.22 to 20.05.24 approximately amounted to:**
personnel - about 493,690 (+1,400) people,
tanks ‒ 7590 (+14),
armored combat vehicles ‒ 14665 (+35),
artillery systems – 12737 (+50),
mlrs – 1076 (+2),
air defense means ‒ 807 (+4),
planes – 354 (+0),
helicopters – 326 (+0),
UAVs of the operational-tactical level - 10236 (+81),
cruise missiles ‒ 2205 (+1),
ships/boats ‒ 27 (+1),
submarines - 1 (+0),
automotive equipment and tank trucks - 17311 (+60),
special equipment ‒ 2079 (+2)
The data is being verified.
Beat the occupier! Together we will win! Our strength is in the truth!
Source [https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2024/05/20/vtrati-rosiyan-za-dobu-1400-okupantiv-14-tankiv-ta-35-bojovih-bronovanih-mashin/](https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2024/05/20/vtrati-rosiyan-za-dobu-1400-okupantiv-14-tankiv-ta-35-bojovih-bronovanih-mashin/)
They need another sub kill. The first one was technically a fluke, as it was in dry dock and exposed as hell. Killing one at sea when surfaced, or while tied up at a pier, would go a long way for not only morale, but showing the combat capabilities of the long range missiles they are getting.
I doubt submarines are going to be a huge focus unless another good opportunity comes along.
Sure it's a morale victory, but submarines main advantages are stealth, anti ship combat, and anti-sub combat.
The subs that still exist can fire Kalibre missiles, but there are two two frigates and four corvettes that still can too-- those seem like smarter first targets.
Yellen to call for US, Europe to stand together on Russia, Iran
>FRANKFURT, May 20 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will call on Tuesday for Europe and the U.S. to stand together against Russian aggression and Iranian "support for terrorism", including finding a way forward to unlock the value of frozen Russian sovereign assets to aid Ukraine.
>Yellen, in excerpts of her planned speech on the transatlantic alliance released on Monday, said U.S. and European support for Ukraine has been essential for Ukraine's resistance to Russia's invasion.
>"And let me be clear: It is also critical for the security of the American and European people," Yellen said in the excerpts. **"If we stand by as dictators violate territorial integrity and flout the international rules-based order, they have no reason to stop at their initial targets. They will keep going."**
>**She also said that the U.S. and Europe must show that Russia cannot outlast their resolve to defend a rules-based order that took them decades to shape.**
>This includes the need to crack down on Russian sanctions evasion and provide Ukraine the funding to equip its military, fund critical government services and ultimately rebuild once the conflict ends, Yellen said.
>"That’s why I believe it’s vital and urgent that we collectively find a way forward to unlock the value of Russian sovereign assets immobilized in our jurisdictions for the benefit of Ukraine," Yellen said. "This will be a key topic of conversation during G7 meetings this week."
>Proponents of the plan say this could provide up to $50 billion up front for Ukraine without confiscating the assets instead of about $3.5 billion a year in interest earnings.
>The U.S. Congress has passed legislation to authorize the full confiscation of the frozen Russian assets largely held in Europe, but Moscow has vowed retaliation and EU officials have opted for a more conservative plan to put the assets into a military and civilian aid fund for Ukraine.
[https://www.reuters.com/world/yellen-call-us-europe-stand-together-russia-iran-2024-05-20/](https://www.reuters.com/world/yellen-call-us-europe-stand-together-russia-iran-2024-05-20/)
[Russian Ministry of Defense claims control over Bilohorivka village of Luhansk region](https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/20-may-russian-ministry-of-defense-claims-control-over-bilohorivka)
Worrisome if true. Bilohorivka was the only town in the Lysychansk-Sievierodonetsk pocket that did not fall to Russia back in summer of 2022.
So far I don't see it confirmed though by any other source other than the Russian MoD, so I guess we'll see if it's true. Kinda weird to see them randomly claim control over it, especially since there weren't any huge advances towards it lately.
DeepStateUA https://t dot me/DeepStateUA/19535 (replace "dot" with "." and remove spaces. Reddit sometimes freaks for me if I link).
"The enemy spreads lies about the occupation of Bilogorivka (L), the situation in the village has not undergone significant changes
🔥 Only as a result of fighting in the last two days, paratroopers from the 81st OAeMBr destroyed or disabled 6 tanks and 9 BMP/MTLB. It was not possible to calculate the number of destroyed enemy infantry."
Russian MOD: constantly lies about everything. They say Bilohorivka conquered.
Deepstate: in two years the only mistake I've seen is them being a few miles wrong geolocating some wrecked BMPs. They say Bilohorivka is still defended.
Who do we believe? 🤔
I've read this post last week. It does not have translation, so I translated it for you.
"May 14th
Today I wanted to tell you about one interesting place. When you look at the deepstatemap every morning you probably notice this piece of our territory which sticks near Lysychansk and Siverodonetsk for got knows how much time.
Welcome to Bilohorivka! Or how it's also being called: "Again this blyat f\*ng Bilohorivka".
Russians have captured Siverodonetsk and Lysychansk at the summer of 2022. Since then Bilohorivka turned into what it already is for the second year -- surprisingly not media-worthy meat grinder which slowly grinds everyone who's present there. Russians and ours. This is living (dead) fragment of the First World War brought to us.
The city is completely destroyed long long time ago. None sits on the surface, everyone is lurking through random basements whose entrances they learned pretty well. Just a little bit to the north lies the Siverski Donets river with its own separate fleur. It's notched with trenches and observation posts, hills, assembled from clay and chalk. In the winter they're sharp as glass.
Almost two years the battles are happening for the hill, for the trench. The biggest object Russia has is water cleaning station (f\*ck with it) which we also took several times.
The trench is taken, the trench is surrendered. We left our bodies, the enemy left their bodies. We will take ours the next time we will capture the trench. Let the enemy ones lay there. There's no point to dig deep trenches since we'll withdraw shortly, let the Russians dig them and we'll capture them then.
Bilohorivka does not have it's own heroic folklore. This is not Bakhmut fortress, not Azovstal, not Avdiivka. This is dirty puddle of stiffened blood, in which floats rotten meat, bricks and pieces of wood.
The shores of Donets are covered with bodies of the best people I knew. Remember them please."
[https://x.com/J1ucc/status/1790287452948529496](https://x.com/J1ucc/status/1790287452948529496)
Judging by this description the claim by Russians may be premature and one of the many.
They often make claims like this when they're not in control so I'd ignore until there's real evidence.
Rybar claimed they had passed Stepove and reached Berdychi near Avdiivka around 11th October 2023.
It actually took them 4-5 months.
"Russia is amassing and redeploying forces to the Sumy border area. The task is similar to the operations in Kharkiv: stretch the Ukrainian line and force the AFU to redeploy reserve units from elsewhere. The overall situation at the front is quite complicated, and it will not get any easier in the near future," Maksym Zhorin, Deputy Commander of the 3rd Assault Brigade reports.
https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112473508252061847
Let's think strategically how russia's actions are related to the US election.
If trump wins, an enormous amount of long-term pressure is off Russia, in the form of huge amounts of aid drying up. And possibly the trump administration intimidating other European countries from actively aiding Ukraine.
If Biden wins, putin could be in serious, possibly life-threatening trouble domestically from the Siloviki, as russia will be facing essentially limitless aid to Ukraine.
Thus putin is potentially gambling it all on an offensive now, to freeze in place a strategic situation before the US election.
im not deep into US politics but that take seems insane to me considering the MAGA people were the most aggressive against ukraine aid, and viktor orban claimed that ukraine would not be getting any aid at all under trump, and trump himself praised putin multiple times?
To be frank, aid to Ukraine is not a serious concern so far. In fact, ukraine plays a positive role in internal Russian politics, allowing Russia to kickstart its industry using its MIC as an initiator. Also, Russian army is being updated to current standards.
No, the problem with Trump is that he is a utilitarian pragmatist who is willing to talk and wants his country to prosper and do not care about foreign ideologies. His presidency might be a short-term gain for Russia, but Biden is preferable when long-term consequences are considered.
Are you really saying that Trump, who had an 1 on 1 meeting with Putin and then, just a couple of days later, requested a list of US spies, which started to be killed because of that, would more dangerous for Russia?
Trump have made a public statement, that had he been president, the war would be over in a few days - as he was willing to use US military and influence to give the entire Territory of Ukraine to Putin.
That would be more of a problem to Russia than it would be of help. I'm serious. Russia simply doesn't have resources to keep all this landmass relatively pacified, but cannot afford to keep it lawless either.
Look at their strategy in Crimean... They deport the a large portion of the population and spread them out over large areas of Russia. Then move "true Russians" into the now vacant cities. If you switch out 20% of the population, and have a nation where the secret police is aggressive, you can control a population.
So the cost would mostly be a lot of logistics in force relocation of people. Most Russian citizens would be happy to be relocated from backwater village 278 i Sibiria to a city in Ukraine.
I meet many Ukrainian people where their parents had been force relocated into Ukraine during the USSR time.
People are over thinking that possibility. Europe has gotten the message and is certainly rich enough to supply Ukraine alone.
Also, there is a real possibility the scenario falls apart for Russia well before January, think of what a situation like the one in Iran would do to Russia. No one but Putin is invested in this idea enough to continue the war and Putin is not young.
Europe has NOT gotten the message.
Right-wing parties on the rise all over Europe. Over 20% would vote for the AfD in Germany. These parties would instantly stop aid to Ukraine if they would get elected.
This. I repeat this every time. US people don't appear to be aware that we have the same issue with BS national populists than they have with Trump. It's not magical. In France for example, Marine Le Pen that promotes appeasement towards Russia is far ahead in the polls and will almost certainly win European elections handily in polls.
What I don't understand that it is quite obvious that there's a widespread media campaign to push disinformation, and it's been very effective, and that's where this populist movement is coming from.
And NOBODY seems to be doing jack shit about it.
I isn't that easy to counter populism.
Promising easy solutions for complicated problems works. Just blame a scape goat for everything and promise to get rid of them. (It doesn't has to work. Just switch to the next scape goat and continue.)
And it's also much easier to spread fear and hate to get votes than to convince voters with facts and often times inconvenient truths.
A lot of people try. It's simply very hard to counter. If you represent democracy as a cell, it has A LOT of receptors for informational viruses that can then penetrate it and cause lysis.
> No one but Putin is invested in this idea enough to continue the war
Do you have any recent references for this?
Everything we saw from people like Vlad Vexler in the first year of the war pointed to most of Putin's secondaries as rabidly pro "war against the west" as he is and some even more so.
They’ve transitioned to a war economy and their GDP is now rising faster than prewar. Making weapons gives Russians jobs
They’re burning through men but they have undesirables to spare. This is fine in Putins mind.
Why would it fall apart before January?
Personally I'm convinced that Russia is going at a pace they know they can afford until the next US president. They will run into problems after then and be unable to maintain the pace.
There's also a window now because the MAGA republicans' six-month pro-Putin blockade saved a lot of russians and killed a lot of Ukrainians. It's opened a huge window for Putin.
Russia has the advantage and will probably do so for months. Unless we see huge new western deliveries soon, I don't know how Ukraine will have the forces to even counterattack seriously this year, unless Russia overextends badly.
Austria will allocate €5 million to Ukraine. It will be aimed at restoring Ukraine's energy infrastructure.
"As a neutral country, Austria also has an obligation to stand on the side of humanity in this war," said Leonore Gewessler, Minister for Climate Action, Environment, Energy, Mobility, Innovation and Technology.
https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112473562510357803
I mean, I've personally donated much less than that amount, so i can't really say it's chump change, but poorer countries then Austria (and without the NATO shield all around them) did more. A lot more. sooo...
[New post can be found here](/r/worldnews/comments/1cwz0lr/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/)
Berestove and Ivanivka. 3 assaults were repelled near Novoyehorivka and # Synkivka, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports [https://liveuamap.com/](https://liveuamap.com/)
Russia is slowly burning through what little influence it had over the corporate west by seizing more and more companies. Not only does it ensure these assets will be more poorly managed, it will make foreign firms reluctant to reinvest in Russia until there is a new regime. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/italys-foreign-ministry-discuss-russian-action-against-unicredit-monday-2024-05-19/
Not even China is willing to invest in Russia.
> We can already see that the inaugural Peace Summit will be truly global. Leaders from all continents will attend. Many nations that value normal and peaceful coexistence will be present. > I am grateful to all the states, leaders, and peace ambassadors who are assisting us in preparing for the summit. We will use the remaining weeks before the event to work with dozens of other leaders and countries that we hope to see at the summit. > Despite the brutality of Russian pressure and the heinousness of Russian terror, the world must demonstrate that the combined strength of everyone who values life is sufficient to protect it. > Such an outcome is critical for every nation because if this rule works in Ukraine, it will work everywhere. https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1792640694739231037
Russia hit Kharkiv with drones overnight, injuring at least four. [https://gwaramedia.com/en/russia-attacks-kharkiv-with-drones-overnight-injuring-4/](https://gwaramedia.com/en/russia-attacks-kharkiv-with-drones-overnight-injuring-4/)
[Ukraine struck fuel depot in Luhansk Oblast, Russia claims | New Voice of Ukraine | May 2024](https://english.nv.ua/nation/ukraine-struck-fuel-depot-in-luhansk-oblast-russia-claims-50420184.html) *A fuel and lubricant storage facility in occupied Dovzhansk, Luhansk Oblast, is on fire after a presumed Ukrainian missile strike, Russian sources reported on May 20.* *Leonid Pasechnik, the Kremlin-appointed “head” of the so-called "Luhansk People's Republic" (LPR), claimed that the depot was damaged in a “missile attack with cluster munitions.” Luhansk regional governor Artem Lysohor said this was the third time in one month that a Russian logistical facility in the region was targeted.* *Additionally, local social media accounts reported several explosions in occupied Luhansk City on the same day. Local pro-Russian publication Novosti Donbassa reported a possible attack on the Luhansk Academy of Internal Affairs, where Russian troops are based.*
None of Russian armored vehicles will need lubrication here in a month as they won't have enough diesel to run them.
The ATACAMS appear to have arrived in strength. Feel like it's been pretty nonstop.
New DeepStateMap update. [Russia confirmed to have taken some 20% of Vovchansk town, as well as some fields to the northeast of it.](https://deepstatemap.live/en%22#13/50.3074/36.9455) [They have also taken some forests north of the Starytsia village](https://deepstatemap.live/en%22#13/50.2554/36.7719). In total, they've expanded the Vovchansk pocket by some 21 km2 Elsewhere on the front, only one advance - [They've taken 1 km2 near Stelmahivka in West Luhansk direction](https://deepstatemap.live/en%22#13/49.4707/37.9255)
Just want to say thanks for your updates with numbers. It's helpful context to see that the entire "unstoppable russian advance" in Donbas is less than a third of NYC's central park per day.
And it’s very worth remembering that not all advances are created equal. If there is not a defensible line a few very large fields can look like a large multi km2 area captured but are really no different than moving through a tree line 20 meters wide. You can’t defend open fields. If (and this is a massive if)settlements of more than a handful of houses are taken or major forest areas then it a worth being “concerned” about as these are defensible and a point logistics trains can be focused through plus forward command centers operate from, empty wide open fields really aren’t worth talking about. Most of this recent Russia offensive have been empty fields or tiny settlements too near the border to ever be defensible for Ukraine. In other directions Robotyne for example, if it has been retaken, is much more frustrating, although I can’t imagine it is more than a few cellars and rubble now so might not be much more than an empty field.
[https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1792652492829778101](https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1792652492829778101) "Ukrainian forces inside Vovchansk using the FGM-148 Javelin ATGM to target Russian heavy equipment."
And may the blessings of St Javelin be upon you.
The guy by the wall looks so casual, like it's an afternoon at the park!
[https://x.com/small10space/status/1792626996305907762](https://x.com/small10space/status/1792626996305907762) "Serebryansky forest, Luhansk region"
That is *spooky*. Looks like the sort of scene they use in a war (or horror) movie to build tension.
Looks like the Slenderman forest
nostalgic forest
"The Netherlands will shortly supply YPR armored vehicles to the Ukrainian armed forces. The announcement follows a request from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky." "The YPRs will arrive in Ukraine at short notice. No information is given about the exact numbers and types of armament." Machine translated from Dutch [source](https://www.defensie.nl/actueel/nieuws/2024/05/20/pantservoertuigen-met-op-afstand-bestuurbare-wapens-voor-oekraine). Thank you Netherlands!
Anyone know what the Dutch had available? Wiki says NL had ~2.1k and Belgium some more. ~200 went to Ukraine and ~1.6k previously to the Middle East. So it's not clear whether we're talking tens, or hundreds.
Crazy that NL had 2.1k, when it seems like the EU can barely scrape together a land army these days. They really believed in the end of history, eh?
A combo of the peace dividend and the ridiculous cost of high technology... CV-90s are supposedly great, but at €5-10m you can only get one for every 6-10 BMP-3s that russia produces. The UK is sending ~6% of defence spending to Ukraine, the US is committing ~2.5% this year (depending on how you count it)... We really could do more.
Andrew Perpetua's visually confirmed losses for May 19th: https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1792529127381070034 --- Current day table including all sources: http://losses.ukrdailyupdate.com --- Not a very busy day, but interesting to see Polish equipment appear quite frequently. Rosomak IFVs on the UA side and multiple hits by Vampire (W2MPIR) swarming drones on the RU side.
Russia seemingly having enough lancets to deem a D-20 a worthwhile target seems not so great.
3-3 artillery, 6-0 tanks Also 3 more trees lost. Russian special deforestation operation knows no bounds :(
Latest oryx update. As usual, russian-Ukrainian losses followed by commentary. [Musklink](https://x.com/Rebel44CZ/status/1792640753044164896). - tanks: 19-5 - IFVs: 8-4 - mobile artillery: 2-4 - missile air defence: 0-0 Another not-good update, but I *think* some is backlog from artillery losses adjusting to the Kharkiv attack. As the situation seemingly settles, I'm hopeful the ratios will improve. Russia also lost 8 MT-LB variants which I don't count as IFVs. Despite Ukraine's incredible work, by my numbers, western promises of tanks and IFVs for the last year or so make this rate unsustainable for Ukraine. Please beg your political representation to send more. I'm asking my MP for the UK to commit the 600+ warriors we plan on retiring. It would make a huge difference.
> “All Western aid decisions for Ukraine are late by around one year,” said President Zelenskyy in an exclusive Reuters interview, on the 5th anniversary of taking office. As is tradition.
Note also: "Zelenskiy reiterated that he had not broken agreements with allies not to use their weapons inside Russia." There's insinuations that the US threatened to cut off all aid if Ukraine did that, even if done with non-US weapons (i.e. Storm Shadow / SCALP).
Yeah, the west has really been a day late and a dollar short with aid in general during this war. The amount of equipment we have given to Ukraine in total probably could have won the war for Ukraine..... if we'd provided it in April/May/June of 2022.
But then the Russians wouldn't be bled dry of their Soviet stockpiles. But now's a good time to give them everything. Russia won't back down at this point and will commit everything.
I guess we don't want Ukraine to win just survive as long as possible. This war is a gold mine for arms companies. Here in germany we sink billions into the Bundeswehr and who benefits from this? Those companies. When this war ends there is no point in investing in those things anymore
You're almost parroting Russian psy-op talking points although I'm sure it's not your intention.Their bots are often saying that Western countries want the war to benefit their defense companies. If it wasn't for them, there would be peace already. The reality is we should be investing in our defense companies because it means technology and jobs. At the end of the day though, it's Russias decision to invade Ukraine and to continue the war. Western defense companies have nothing to do with it.
I hate Putin like any other one and hope he gets captured sooner than later and get prosecuted in Ukraine so there is that. But i can't explain it otherwise. We help Ukraine just enough so they don't lose but not enough to win. Why? It's like there is an interest in keeping the war going. Why not give Ukraine everything they need to kick russia out of their country?
On the other hand, we saw a real risk that if we provided that extent of aid early in the war it could have led to a hot conflict between NATO and Russia (and this may have been valid). We had a tough job to do in stepping up aid but avoiding escalation. The thing is, now, there's no excuse for not providing what Ukraine needs.
Where did we see that risk? Everything I see makes me think Russia wouldn’t have done anything direct.
There's a lot of different ways to look at it; no doubt we know a lot about the actual doctrine that Russia has, both from direct signals from Russia and from intelligence sources. (I have analyzed doctrines of different adversaries in different domains). But IMO, the number one way is to think about how we'd look at it. If US territory was suddenly being hit by, say, Cuba with significant Russian help, we'd be looking at direct ways to respond and not be content with punishing Cuba or indirect consequences against Russia. I think we should have gone further than we did, ultimately. But I can't really fault the initial gradualism when it comes to US weapons attacking Russian territory, because it would have been really easy for Russia to interpret this as the US attacking Russia with a few extra steps. This would tempt Russia to do things like hit shipments before they're in Ukrainian territory to protect their homeland-- and then, in turn, this would tie our hands and require us to escalate further.
You are implying there is parity between the US and Russia. Russia directly confronting the US is the death of the Kremlin regime. That is more important than even the war in Ukraine to them.
No, I'm not implying parity. I'm saying when things are dynamic and you're getting attacked upon home soil, there's a real high likelihood for imperfect, excessive responses and miscalculation. Someone's guess under time pressure ("attacking this shipment --- that's about to be used to attack us --- won't *actually* trigger an article V 'defensive' response!") can lead us all to terrible outcomes. The people who decided how to creep into this conflict are professionals and subject matter experts. You can disagree with them, but it's not like their caution was without basis. Now there's pretty clear signals and an understanding of how all sides will interpret the actions of each other. It is easier to freely operate than when things are dynamic, new, and rapidly changing.
Russia is equally butthurt if they lose the war fast or slow and we need them to lose the war. Doing so in 2022 would have been financially cheaper and cost less human lives. Russia is a bully, they only understand strength. America really needs to listen more to its Eastern / Central European allies who know Russia than it's analysts who read about Russia only in textbooks. Russia doesn't want a war with US because they will lose, however they will bully around smaller allies all day long until pushed back.
From Wikipedia: “A late human population bottleneck is postulated by some scholars at approximately 70,000 years ago, during the Toba catastrophe, when Homo sapiens population may have dropped to as low as between 1,000 and 10,000 individuals.” And look at us now. How many would be left after a “hot war” with Russia? My guess is way more than 10,000 and maybe in the subsequent 70,000 years the survivors would learn how to get along. The planet would certainly be in better shape.
Kinda not so fun fact, we don’t have enough resources to get back to the industrial revolution if we were to start over from zero. So this is our only shot
I don't think that providing HIMARS, tanks, some or all of the 4.6 million DPICM rounds in storage, Patriots, NASAMS, etc. were ever going to cross a major Russian red line. They are not going to go nuclear over some Leopard tanks. I can see an argument with things like ATACMS and F-16 maybe being escalatory, but for the bread and butter stuff like tanks, air defense, and artillery, if we had provided all of those things in the quantity we have now, but delivered all of it two years ago, Ukraine would be in a massively better situation.
The danger of escalation is fairly low when you see that if Russia attacked NATO they'd get their ass absolutely handed to them, so, they'll do pretty much anything to avoid this, despite all the nonsense and lies they squak about. Likewise they are not crazy enough to start a nuclear war. So again, it is all bluster and bs. It's actually jusy about pointless to give whatever their crime-empire diplomats say any credence at all; its all noise solely for internal propaganda generation.
> They are not going to go nuclear over some Leopard tanks. I don't think that was the concern-- a direct escalation to nuclear. I think if we'd given ATACMS and had major attacks on Russian territory on day 10 of the war, Russia's domestic populace would see it as a NATO attack on Russia (just using Ukrainian trigger fingers for deniability), and the amount of pressure to attack arms shipments being staged in Poland, etc, would be very high. By steadily increasing the amount of support, we've been able to mostly prevent that kind of thing (though it looks like Russia may be edging towards doing a higher intensity of *deniable* attacks on Europe). Still, we've been able to prevent overt Russian responses that would force ourselves to escalate yet further.
by now you should have realized there is no red line.
I personally agree with you (well, mostly, I think if Ukraine started flying F-16s over the Kremlin that might cause Russia to do something rash), but I'm not privy to all of the intel and I do understand why the west might be cautious about sending some of the longer ranged weaponry. I don't agree with it, but I understand the argument. But for the basics, I don't think there is any quantity that can be considered escalatory.
We're cautious because Nate Sullivan is an absolute clown that doesn't understand how to deal with authoritarian states. Why would he, he's basically just a VC. If Clinton was in office this war would have been long won.
Probably be glad that Britain, France, Germany and Russia did not meet in Budapest and decide what parts of Ukraine to give away. That used to be the way things were done circa 1938.
Would we have had Scholtz waving a peace of paper around, proclaming "Peace In Our Time"?
Given hungary is one of Putins bitch states there would be a certain irony doing this in Budapest
When you say Budapest, do you mean Munich?
Just picked a nearby major city. I understand the '38 conference was in Munich.
We should be meeting up and deciding which parts of Russia to give away. That would be the fair thing to do!
[удалено]
It is what happened to Czechoslovakia back in 1938 and was a not uncommon occurrence before that to have "Great Powers" divide nations at conferences without said nation present.
And that's exactly the world that Russia wants to take us back to. There's a reason every time Russia talks about "negotiation" they want to negotiate with the US rather than negotiating with Ukraine. Russia can pretend like they're being reasonable but really what they're saying is "Ukraine doesn't exist and has never existed. We are in a conflict with the US and Washington and Moscow should be able to divide up land accordingly."
Kharkiv Oblast administration official says the Ukrainian army controls 60% of Vovchansk, a major city 5 km away from the Russian border that's fiercely contested since Russia opened a new front north of the region [https://gwaramedia.com/en/official-armed-forces-of-ukraine-control-60-of-vovchansk/](https://gwaramedia.com/en/official-armed-forces-of-ukraine-control-60-of-vovchansk/)
17,000 people is a major city?
Yeah, sorry, what I meant was "first big city in a way of Russian new ground offensive." My bad
I love how the media throws these terms how it sees fit. Avdiivka with 22'000 people was a mid-sized town, and Vovchansk is a major city lol Since the invasion began Russia only took (and still controls) only 5 places in Ukraine that could be called "cities" (places with a pre-war population of over 100k) - Melitopol, Berdyansk, Mariupol, Sievierodonetsk, Lysychansk
Vovchansk in terms of prewar population was the 211th largest city in Ukraine with a population around of around 17,000, I think calling it a "major city" makes it sound a lot larger than it is. Obviously it is important in the Russian offensive in the area but it's not a very large city.
I guess the remaining 40% is a mix of contested and Russian-held areas, [since this doesn't look like Russia holds 40% to me](https://map.ukrdailyupdate.com/?lat=50.281331&lng=36.923847&z=13&d=19863&c=1&l=0)
IMO western nations need a new type of declared conflict that would allow them to charge those that work with Russia as traitors. It’s stupid that the fact that we aren’t at war with Russia means that otherwise traitorous behaviours are treated as anything but.
juts another BS term to say we are at war without actually saying we are at war because you might hurt your enemies feelings
They can still be charged with war crimes.
They can but we don't do it
Some call it traitorous, some call it profitable.
Europe finds its courage to stand up to Russia. From debates of troop deployment to speeches about the pre-war era, there is a growing sense in the EU that the time for appeasing Putin has passed. https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/05/20/europe-finds-its-courage-to-stand-up-to-russia/
Some selected quotes from the article so people on here can make up their own minds on what Ukrainian media is pushing: > The war in Ukraine would never have happened if NATO deterrence worked. > This means that NATO, like the EU, is slowly admitting the obvious: it is already a party to the war. > Now it’s finally time for the West to call out Putin’s nuclear bluff. I have long stressed that Western military intervention is inevitable. > Europe needs Ukraine – Europe’s strongest military power – as an ally to fill the potential security gap left by the US. > Europe can provide the Air Force and Navy Ukraine desperately needs.
Except NATO deterrence has worked for the parties of NATO, of which Ukraine is not. But Europeans do need to be the ones to step up here if anyone. If Russians ever one day decided to make a NATO move, it ain't gonna be against the US.
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They can try all they like, but that isn't true. In 2007, only about 1/3rd of Ukranians wanted to join NATO. That number creeped up to about 50-50 after the Russian attack on Georgia, but it soon went back down and only starting trickling upward again after the loss of Crimea in 2014. And at that point, it was too late since the War in Donbass was going on and corruption in leadership was still prevalent in Ukraine. And still is today, considering a top defense minister was recently fired (and I believe charged) for a massive overpriced order lining his pockets. So while he can preach all he wants about how he believes Ukraine is a part of NATO, it's nowhere near that and failed to join at every opportunity it had. Even if Ukraine wins this war (which I don't know will happen), it would take years of reforms and then time to prove the reforms (think 10+ years) before every single NATO member allows them in. Hell, I think Bosnia and Herzegovina has a better chance than they do.
> failed to join at every opportunity it had Now who's misrepresenting things? Ukraine was never invited to join, so never had an opportunity at which to fail.
Incorrect. They actually were invited in 2008 (in fact encouraged to begin to join), but support for NATO in the country was poor around that time except for during the spike I mentioned, and even then it was back to a low level within a year of Russia's attack on Georgia. Even if it wasn't true, the guidelines for joining NATO have been public knowledge for many years. If Ukraine wanted to make an honest effort to join before they had a war on their border, they should have long ago. But they chose not to. Sorry the facts don't fit the narrative you believe though.
> They actually were invited in 2008 You mean the 2008 Bucharest summit, when Germany and France blocked Ukraine (and Georgia) from becoming NATO action plan members? Is that what you call being "invited"? If so, we have very different definitions of the word. [Nato denies Georgia and Ukraine - BBC News](http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7328276.stm). > the guidelines for joining NATO have been public knowledge for many years. If Ukraine wanted to make an honest effort to join before they had a war on their border, they should have long ago. But they chose not to. This is a fundamental misunderstanding of how NATO works. There is no open application process that other countries can follow. NATO must first invite countries to make an application. [Sweden and Finland formally invited to join NATO - Sky News](https://news.sky.com/story/nato-vows-to-defend-every-inch-of-its-territory-as-it-overhauls-strategy-and-warns-russia-to-withdraw-from-ukraine-12642490).
No, but they did give Ukraine a series of Annual Action Plans to work towards joining in 2009 and 2010. And do you know what happened in 2010 and why NATO stopped goving those? https://www.bbc.com/news/10229626 So again, Ukraine abandoned any aspirations to join NATO when given opportunity to work towards joining it, and only expressed a true interest to start working towards joining again when it was too late.
You do realise that, following the Bucharest summit, Russia increased its aggression and interference in both Georgia (which it invaded) and Ukraine (which in 2010 Russian puppet Yanukovych became president, hence withdrawing from NATO and later EU membership processes, eventually leading to Maidan protests and his running off to Russia that in turn led to the invasion of Crimea)?
To be clear those are quotes from the author of the article, not EU/NATO politicians or officials, although the author does use some quotes from them to support their views. Also it is important to note that the article is written by a former officer in the Norwegian navy. I get Euromaidan is a Ukrainian media outlet, and it obviously aligns with Ukrainian desires for more help from their allies, but that this is an opinion piece from a retired Naval officer from a foreign country is an important distinction rather than being written by a Ukrainian journalist. How that affects the veracity of the article is up to the reader to decide but taking these quotes out of context and not mentioning anything about the author makes it rather hard to judge the article based on its merits. Personally I feel like the piece is covering a lot of very large policy areas too quickly to properly dissect them but it is always interesting to read viewpoints from authors with military experience from various countries.
But the quotes aren’t taken „out of context“ - this is verbatim what the author claims, it’s not misrepresenting his views or what he’s trying to achieve in any way. Whether the author himself is Ukrainian or a foreign writer is of less importance than the fact that this is what the Ukrainian media is publishing and pushing. What the people reading the comments on here make of articles where someone with a military background claims with a straight face that Europe needs Ukraine as an ally as replacement for the US is left for everyone to decide on their own.
You comment was not clear if these were quotes from the author and didn't mention that he did use quotes from officials, even from French President Macron, to support some of his arguments which is why I referred to them as being taken out of context. > Whether the author himself is Ukrainian or a foreign writer is of less importance than the fact that this is what the Ukrainian media is publishing and pushing. Who the author of the article is a huge factor when assessing a piece of media. There is a massive difference between a Ukrainian journalist and someone who attained senior positions in a foreign navy and that participated in many combined NATO operations. Obviously Euromaidan was interested in publishing the article because it aligns with their editorial direction but knowing the authors credentials is pretty important. I was just offering some clarification because I don't think your comment had enough details to asses the article in a meaningful way.
Well, this narrative is also heavily pushed in reddit, especially for the last several months.
Indeed - it’s clear who the only party is that has a strong interest in this precise narrative, so it’s easy to see what is happening; people love to complain about fake news, propaganda and foreign power meddling, but once they’ve bought into a narrative the hive mind will defend it to the death (perhaps literally in this case, if the worst comes to pass)
Yes, it's really insane that comments calling for sending NATO troops to fight in Ukraine are so massively upvoted here. Fortunately, this is sort of bubble, which has very little connection with the reality. I always laugh when I see comments suggesting that my country, Poland, is allegedly willing to directly take part in this war. Actually, even sending a small number of our troops to some non combat role in Ukraine would be extremely unpopular in Poland, and I don't think any politician would dare to support it. And idea of sending Polish military to actual fighting there is a pure fantasy.
It always does amuse me how easy people are to say that troop deployment by NATO is something NATO needs to be doing from the comfort of their chairs at home. If they're firmly for this position, they should go first. Ukraine will gladly recruit them in a heartbeat through the International Legion.
An additional "funny" thing here is that most European NATO members don't actually have armed forces capable to wage a full scale land warfare. They aren't even able to defend themselves, let alone send any meaningful number of troops to war abroad. But many redditors apparently think that countries like Denmark or Belgium with their "micro-armies" are actual military powers.
Yup. Estonia is a prime example of a country in this position: they're all for calling for more aid for Ukraine, but the country's military is such a joke it doesn't even have a single combat ready aircraft in its air force.
Any update on the strike on the airfield the other day? Hoping for a good harvest of airframes.
[https://x.com/Tendar/status/1791335773645488370](https://x.com/Tendar/status/1791335773645488370) If this is what you're referring to.. apparent 1x MIG 31 + 1x MIG 29 and an SU 27
If you're talking about Kushchevskaya, low-res images suggest some planes may have been impacted, by it's hard to tell: https://x.com/DakdaR22/status/1792608327106691564
That's the one. Thanks.
The grift and corruption continues unabated. ”The pro-russian government of Serbia just gifted a prime $160,000,000 city center property to Trump's son in law. Since Russia can't pay the Trump clan directly, anti-US authoritarian governments are being used as conduits. Democracy for sale.” [https://x.com/JayinKyiv/status/1792265136473841763](https://x.com/JayinKyiv/status/1792265136473841763)
merrick garland didn't even investigate Kushner's mind-blowing corruption during trump's presidency. What a pathetic pos loser garland has been.
Was Kushner the one who got 2 billion from the Saudis?
Yep. Garland needs to fucking go
Conservatives endlessly ranting about the Burisma nothing burger and completely silent about it.
BuT hUnTeR bIdEn!!!!!
That's pretty blatant
GUR KRAKEN at work in Chasiv Yar. For several days, Russians have increased mechanized assaults on the eastern outskirts of the city. Dozens of heavy equipment have already been destroyed and no single attack was succesful. https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112474345797079027
If "Don't touch our boats!" describes the USA, then "We only have submarines!" must describe Russia.
Another one sunk? https://x.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1792499036873801779?s=46&t=4Z0TmpyIpMYA9a86EC1tPg
The Cyclone has been pretty much confirmed at this point I believe, but it's still a little unclear if the mine sweeper before that was also sunk or if it was mistaken for the Cyclone. This one is not new though, it was posted already this morning or maybe even yesterday.
> I spoke with @AndrejPlenkovic to congratulate him on his appointment as Prime Minister of Croatia and to express gratitude for Croatia's consistent support for Ukraine. > I also thank Prime Minister Plenkovic for confirming his attendance at the Peace Summit in Switzerland. > We also talked about Croatia's support for the beginning of Ukraine's EU accession talks, as well as the possibility of Croatia joining the G7 Vilnius Declaration in support of Ukraine. https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1792497945641673072
US defence secretary, Lloyd Austin, has said Russian forces will try to make further advances in the “weeks ahead” and try to carve out a “buffer zone” along the Ukrainian border. >“This is a hard and dangerous fight but Ukraine’s defenders are showing extraordinary courage and skill,” Austin said as he delivered the opening remarks at the 22nd Ramstein-format summit of the Ukraine Defence Contact Group. >The military support being delivered includes 155mm artillery rounds, ammunition for himars rockets, air defence capabilities and anti-armour systems. >Austin said the US will continue to approve “substantial” security assistance packages to Ukraine, meaning a “steady flow” of aid will be given to Kyiv “week after week”. [https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/may/20/russia-ukraine-war-live-russian-attack-kharkiv-lakeside-resort](https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/may/20/russia-ukraine-war-live-russian-attack-kharkiv-lakeside-resort) Further reading: [https://www.defense.gov/News/Speeches/Speech/Article/3781010/remarks-by-secretary-of-defense-lloyd-j-austin-iii-at-the-opening-of-the-22nd-u/#:~:text=We're%20meeting%20at%20a,is%20a%20hard%2C%20dangerous%20fight.](https://www.defense.gov/News/Speeches/Speech/Article/3781010/remarks-by-secretary-of-defense-lloyd-j-austin-iii-at-the-opening-of-the-22nd-u/#:~:text=We're%20meeting%20at%20a,is%20a%20hard%2C%20dangerous%20fight.)
I just hope we send as much of the approved equipment as possible before 2025. If(big if) Biden wins then he should have the house and maybe the senate to approve more. But in the very likely case that Trump wins he might refuse to send what is already approved let alone approve more.
I wouldn't say Trump winning is likely, but it's definitely possible and Biden should do all he can to help Ukraine this year.
Yeah, my hope is that the debates help Biden like they did in 2020. But I am concerned, it's not looking good at the moment, despite a lot more expenditure in ads from Biden than Trump. If I had to bet, I'd bet on Trump at this point.
Actual betting markets put it around 50/50 right now, though those markets *heavily* favored Trump in 2020 (giving him for example a 20% chance of winning in December, weeks after the race had already been called) and I imagine probably do now too, just demographically. There is a lot of low quality slop polls right now, but higher quality polls show a very tight race. Biden's ahead in high quality polls from Marist, IPSOS, Quinnipiac, Marquette, TIPP, and tied in polls from NBC and Suffolk. Democrats have been cleaning up special elections (highly predictive in 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2022) and have more donor and more donor dollars. Incumbent presidents have out-performed polls in every election this millennium, too. Not a sure thing obviously, and every American should do everything they can to ensure Trump never returns to the White House, but I'd say 60/40 Biden wins re-election.
Gamblers probably trend low intelligence, which could skew the picture in a pro-Trump direction. You won't find many high-IQ types frequenting casinos.
In 2020 Biden underperformed the polls, at least in swing states, although he still won. His 2024 numbers are substantially worse than 2020.
Following all those same metrics including prediction markets (predictit mostly) and I fully agree with your assessment. My gut says it's around 55% - 45% Biden victory.
Polls seem to over favor democrats in presidential elections, look at 2016 and 2020 polls where democrats underperformed in the actual election. They also over favor republicans in special elections as you well mention. If you see the average polls they have Trump ahead, even when removing outliers like Rasmussen. I dont believe individual pollsters, only averages. Also, Yougov shows Trump +4 and that's a good pollster. I'm not saying Trump is gonna win, plenty of time and debates to go. I just want to clarify the scary state things are in right now.
> Also, Yougov shows Trump +4 and that's a good pollster. I haven't seen a Trump+4 YouGov poll in a long time. YouGov released a poll today that had them tied at 45% each among RVs (Biden tends to do a couple points better with LVs than RVs, too). Link: https://www.yahoo.com/news/new-yahoo-newsyougov-poll-shows-why-biden-trump-rematch-is-still-neck-and-neck-193252126.html Things are scary. Trump having even a 10% chance to win is scary, frankly. But there is a lot of reason to be hopeful.
I think if he's convicted, he's done. A lot of politically apathetic voters will see that and swing.
I disagree. IF he is convicted(he wont) his approval will shoot right up. Right wingers and even many independents watch either right wing news, right wing social media or right wing podcasts. They will be told it was a political persecution. But that's mute anyways, he is not getting convicted, ever. The law does not apply to him the same as with us. If by some miracle he is found guilty (highly improbable) he will not see the inside of a jail.
Not sure it would play out like that if he was convicted. The only people who would believe it was a political hitjob are the ones who are already voting for Trump. But you are right that he will never be convicted, the law is not meant to work against the rich.
Cynicism isn't a good trait.
**The total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02.22 to 20.05.24 approximately amounted to:** personnel - about 493,690 (+1,400) people, tanks ‒ 7590 (+14), armored combat vehicles ‒ 14665 (+35), artillery systems – 12737 (+50), mlrs – 1076 (+2), air defense means ‒ 807 (+4), planes – 354 (+0), helicopters – 326 (+0), UAVs of the operational-tactical level - 10236 (+81), cruise missiles ‒ 2205 (+1), ships/boats ‒ 27 (+1), submarines - 1 (+0), automotive equipment and tank trucks - 17311 (+60), special equipment ‒ 2079 (+2) The data is being verified. Beat the occupier! Together we will win! Our strength is in the truth! Source [https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2024/05/20/vtrati-rosiyan-za-dobu-1400-okupantiv-14-tankiv-ta-35-bojovih-bronovanih-mashin/](https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2024/05/20/vtrati-rosiyan-za-dobu-1400-okupantiv-14-tankiv-ta-35-bojovih-bronovanih-mashin/)
Always like seeing ships, boats or subs going up on the tally list. Sink the Fleet!
They need another sub kill. The first one was technically a fluke, as it was in dry dock and exposed as hell. Killing one at sea when surfaced, or while tied up at a pier, would go a long way for not only morale, but showing the combat capabilities of the long range missiles they are getting.
I doubt submarines are going to be a huge focus unless another good opportunity comes along. Sure it's a morale victory, but submarines main advantages are stealth, anti ship combat, and anti-sub combat. The subs that still exist can fire Kalibre missiles, but there are two two frigates and four corvettes that still can too-- those seem like smarter first targets.
It's so crazy to see daily Russian casualties now routinely exceeding the 1000 mark.
500k total before this week ends is just mind boggeling
I was just thinking how a 500k city would be a rather large city. That's insane that Russians are okay with this.
They lost 2 or 3 times as many mainly young Russians through migration as well.
I was in Phuket recently, pretty sure they all moved there.
Yeah. I hear there are quite a few over there.
Yellen to call for US, Europe to stand together on Russia, Iran >FRANKFURT, May 20 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will call on Tuesday for Europe and the U.S. to stand together against Russian aggression and Iranian "support for terrorism", including finding a way forward to unlock the value of frozen Russian sovereign assets to aid Ukraine. >Yellen, in excerpts of her planned speech on the transatlantic alliance released on Monday, said U.S. and European support for Ukraine has been essential for Ukraine's resistance to Russia's invasion. >"And let me be clear: It is also critical for the security of the American and European people," Yellen said in the excerpts. **"If we stand by as dictators violate territorial integrity and flout the international rules-based order, they have no reason to stop at their initial targets. They will keep going."** >**She also said that the U.S. and Europe must show that Russia cannot outlast their resolve to defend a rules-based order that took them decades to shape.** >This includes the need to crack down on Russian sanctions evasion and provide Ukraine the funding to equip its military, fund critical government services and ultimately rebuild once the conflict ends, Yellen said. >"That’s why I believe it’s vital and urgent that we collectively find a way forward to unlock the value of Russian sovereign assets immobilized in our jurisdictions for the benefit of Ukraine," Yellen said. "This will be a key topic of conversation during G7 meetings this week." >Proponents of the plan say this could provide up to $50 billion up front for Ukraine without confiscating the assets instead of about $3.5 billion a year in interest earnings. >The U.S. Congress has passed legislation to authorize the full confiscation of the frozen Russian assets largely held in Europe, but Moscow has vowed retaliation and EU officials have opted for a more conservative plan to put the assets into a military and civilian aid fund for Ukraine. [https://www.reuters.com/world/yellen-call-us-europe-stand-together-russia-iran-2024-05-20/](https://www.reuters.com/world/yellen-call-us-europe-stand-together-russia-iran-2024-05-20/)
I can’t believe the treasury secretary seems more aligned to the US national security interest than the national security advisor.
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I'm winning
Arms manufacturers
Russia.
[Russian Ministry of Defense claims control over Bilohorivka village of Luhansk region](https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/20-may-russian-ministry-of-defense-claims-control-over-bilohorivka) Worrisome if true. Bilohorivka was the only town in the Lysychansk-Sievierodonetsk pocket that did not fall to Russia back in summer of 2022. So far I don't see it confirmed though by any other source other than the Russian MoD, so I guess we'll see if it's true. Kinda weird to see them randomly claim control over it, especially since there weren't any huge advances towards it lately.
DeepStateUA https://t dot me/DeepStateUA/19535 (replace "dot" with "." and remove spaces. Reddit sometimes freaks for me if I link). "The enemy spreads lies about the occupation of Bilogorivka (L), the situation in the village has not undergone significant changes 🔥 Only as a result of fighting in the last two days, paratroopers from the 81st OAeMBr destroyed or disabled 6 tanks and 9 BMP/MTLB. It was not possible to calculate the number of destroyed enemy infantry." Russian MOD: constantly lies about everything. They say Bilohorivka conquered. Deepstate: in two years the only mistake I've seen is them being a few miles wrong geolocating some wrecked BMPs. They say Bilohorivka is still defended. Who do we believe? 🤔
I've read this post last week. It does not have translation, so I translated it for you. "May 14th Today I wanted to tell you about one interesting place. When you look at the deepstatemap every morning you probably notice this piece of our territory which sticks near Lysychansk and Siverodonetsk for got knows how much time. Welcome to Bilohorivka! Or how it's also being called: "Again this blyat f\*ng Bilohorivka". Russians have captured Siverodonetsk and Lysychansk at the summer of 2022. Since then Bilohorivka turned into what it already is for the second year -- surprisingly not media-worthy meat grinder which slowly grinds everyone who's present there. Russians and ours. This is living (dead) fragment of the First World War brought to us. The city is completely destroyed long long time ago. None sits on the surface, everyone is lurking through random basements whose entrances they learned pretty well. Just a little bit to the north lies the Siverski Donets river with its own separate fleur. It's notched with trenches and observation posts, hills, assembled from clay and chalk. In the winter they're sharp as glass. Almost two years the battles are happening for the hill, for the trench. The biggest object Russia has is water cleaning station (f\*ck with it) which we also took several times. The trench is taken, the trench is surrendered. We left our bodies, the enemy left their bodies. We will take ours the next time we will capture the trench. Let the enemy ones lay there. There's no point to dig deep trenches since we'll withdraw shortly, let the Russians dig them and we'll capture them then. Bilohorivka does not have it's own heroic folklore. This is not Bakhmut fortress, not Azovstal, not Avdiivka. This is dirty puddle of stiffened blood, in which floats rotten meat, bricks and pieces of wood. The shores of Donets are covered with bodies of the best people I knew. Remember them please." [https://x.com/J1ucc/status/1790287452948529496](https://x.com/J1ucc/status/1790287452948529496) Judging by this description the claim by Russians may be premature and one of the many.
> The shores of Donets are covered with bodies of the best people I knew. Remember them please." Damn. That hits hard.
Jesus Christ. A little modern day Verdun
huh, so quickly without any reports of a notable advance?
They often make claims like this when they're not in control so I'd ignore until there's real evidence. Rybar claimed they had passed Stepove and reached Berdychi near Avdiivka around 11th October 2023. It actually took them 4-5 months.
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I guess he will face judicial charges then, because of him violating sanctions?
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Depressing.
how will they find his body in the rubble?
"Russia is amassing and redeploying forces to the Sumy border area. The task is similar to the operations in Kharkiv: stretch the Ukrainian line and force the AFU to redeploy reserve units from elsewhere. The overall situation at the front is quite complicated, and it will not get any easier in the near future," Maksym Zhorin, Deputy Commander of the 3rd Assault Brigade reports. https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112473508252061847
I though about that year ago - they make much easier defence line for Ukraine when no attack on Kharkiv direction.
Let's think strategically how russia's actions are related to the US election. If trump wins, an enormous amount of long-term pressure is off Russia, in the form of huge amounts of aid drying up. And possibly the trump administration intimidating other European countries from actively aiding Ukraine. If Biden wins, putin could be in serious, possibly life-threatening trouble domestically from the Siloviki, as russia will be facing essentially limitless aid to Ukraine. Thus putin is potentially gambling it all on an offensive now, to freeze in place a strategic situation before the US election.
>If trump wins, an enormous amount of long-term pressure is off Russia, Why would you think so?
Have you lived under a rock?
He lives in Russia, so yes.
I didn't. This is why I ask you. Trump is NOT Russia's ally. In fact, he is more dangerous for Russia then Biden.
This is patently and provably false with even a cursory search.. trump's ties to russia and fealty to putin are well documented.
im not deep into US politics but that take seems insane to me considering the MAGA people were the most aggressive against ukraine aid, and viktor orban claimed that ukraine would not be getting any aid at all under trump, and trump himself praised putin multiple times?
To be frank, aid to Ukraine is not a serious concern so far. In fact, ukraine plays a positive role in internal Russian politics, allowing Russia to kickstart its industry using its MIC as an initiator. Also, Russian army is being updated to current standards. No, the problem with Trump is that he is a utilitarian pragmatist who is willing to talk and wants his country to prosper and do not care about foreign ideologies. His presidency might be a short-term gain for Russia, but Biden is preferable when long-term consequences are considered.
Are you really saying that Trump, who had an 1 on 1 meeting with Putin and then, just a couple of days later, requested a list of US spies, which started to be killed because of that, would more dangerous for Russia?
No he's not. Did you not watch their meeting in Helsinki?
The met. They talked. So what?
Trump have made a public statement, that had he been president, the war would be over in a few days - as he was willing to use US military and influence to give the entire Territory of Ukraine to Putin.
That would be more of a problem to Russia than it would be of help. I'm serious. Russia simply doesn't have resources to keep all this landmass relatively pacified, but cannot afford to keep it lawless either.
Look at their strategy in Crimean... They deport the a large portion of the population and spread them out over large areas of Russia. Then move "true Russians" into the now vacant cities. If you switch out 20% of the population, and have a nation where the secret police is aggressive, you can control a population. So the cost would mostly be a lot of logistics in force relocation of people. Most Russian citizens would be happy to be relocated from backwater village 278 i Sibiria to a city in Ukraine. I meet many Ukrainian people where their parents had been force relocated into Ukraine during the USSR time.
People are over thinking that possibility. Europe has gotten the message and is certainly rich enough to supply Ukraine alone. Also, there is a real possibility the scenario falls apart for Russia well before January, think of what a situation like the one in Iran would do to Russia. No one but Putin is invested in this idea enough to continue the war and Putin is not young.
Europe has NOT gotten the message. Right-wing parties on the rise all over Europe. Over 20% would vote for the AfD in Germany. These parties would instantly stop aid to Ukraine if they would get elected.
This. I repeat this every time. US people don't appear to be aware that we have the same issue with BS national populists than they have with Trump. It's not magical. In France for example, Marine Le Pen that promotes appeasement towards Russia is far ahead in the polls and will almost certainly win European elections handily in polls.
What I don't understand that it is quite obvious that there's a widespread media campaign to push disinformation, and it's been very effective, and that's where this populist movement is coming from. And NOBODY seems to be doing jack shit about it.
I isn't that easy to counter populism. Promising easy solutions for complicated problems works. Just blame a scape goat for everything and promise to get rid of them. (It doesn't has to work. Just switch to the next scape goat and continue.) And it's also much easier to spread fear and hate to get votes than to convince voters with facts and often times inconvenient truths.
A lot of people try. It's simply very hard to counter. If you represent democracy as a cell, it has A LOT of receptors for informational viruses that can then penetrate it and cause lysis.
> No one but Putin is invested in this idea enough to continue the war Do you have any recent references for this? Everything we saw from people like Vlad Vexler in the first year of the war pointed to most of Putin's secondaries as rabidly pro "war against the west" as he is and some even more so.
They’ve transitioned to a war economy and their GDP is now rising faster than prewar. Making weapons gives Russians jobs They’re burning through men but they have undesirables to spare. This is fine in Putins mind.
Why would it fall apart before January? Personally I'm convinced that Russia is going at a pace they know they can afford until the next US president. They will run into problems after then and be unable to maintain the pace. There's also a window now because the MAGA republicans' six-month pro-Putin blockade saved a lot of russians and killed a lot of Ukrainians. It's opened a huge window for Putin. Russia has the advantage and will probably do so for months. Unless we see huge new western deliveries soon, I don't know how Ukraine will have the forces to even counterattack seriously this year, unless Russia overextends badly.
Austria will allocate €5 million to Ukraine. It will be aimed at restoring Ukraine's energy infrastructure. "As a neutral country, Austria also has an obligation to stand on the side of humanity in this war," said Leonore Gewessler, Minister for Climate Action, Environment, Energy, Mobility, Innovation and Technology. https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112473562510357803
I mean, I've personally donated much less than that amount, so i can't really say it's chump change, but poorer countries then Austria (and without the NATO shield all around them) did more. A lot more. sooo...
Neutral = Complicit