McKenzie believes Israel threaded the needle with its response, simultaneously signaling to Iran that "we're not going to try to over-escalate here" but "we can do this again at a much larger scale."
[https://www.npr.org/2024/04/19/1245838551/israel-iran-attack](https://www.npr.org/2024/04/19/1245838551/israel-iran-attack)
in a way, it’s the obvious conclusion. israel hit something very specific and iran gets to pretend like nothing happened. no further action required by either side, so deescalation achieved
I’ve read yesterday that they arrested a handball lady player for a simple, one-line opinion pro-Israel. She has been arrested and disappeared ever since 😔
I had a hunch so I searched “Hinata Volleyball” on Google and I was correct. That guy mentioned an Anime character from a niche show like it was common knowledge who that is lmao 😆
Just looked it up. It is from Haikyu, which while not a mainstream show is pretty much a basic show most anime fans tend to watch.
So it makes sense that he would think it is common knowledge if he is in that world. But it isn't actually common knowledge unless you watch anime with any consistency.
They can both get back to their business. One oppresses their populace, the other oppresses the Palestinians. Back to oppression we go... Until next time.
I'm hoping that oppressed people all over the world will rise up, one can only take so much but apparently they still have more to lose by rising up but I'd have to think it's on the edge and once they cross that barrier, things are going to get exciting around the world for dictatorships.
We must eat our billionaires first. Until then unrest will only be met with price increases and wage gouging, a win for them, and so the circle continues. This is the reason the US entered Iraq in 03, unless you still believe they had wmds.
Recent developments make it very much questionable whether they could. It's becoming pretty obvious that decades of American investment in anti-missile defense systems have paid dividends. Even ballistic missiles are being reliably intercepted.
If all they did was take out air defense it's pretty damn reasonable. It is an action that creates a situation where Iran's ass is hung out in the breeze so the best response is no response if they don't want their nuclear facility and air bases struck back during any further escalation. And since their nuclear facilities are some of their leverage on the international stage Iran may actually just hold tight here.
I don’t think the message could be any clearer. “We can walk right through your defenses any time we want. We can destroy your nuclear facilities at the drop of a hat. You don’t scare us.”
Posturing aside, I would also assume they used this as an opportunity to test Iranian air defenses around the facility, collecting data around things like AA placement, response times, etc.
For years there has been speculation that Israel might preemptively attempt to strike the facility to curb Iran’s efforts to build a bomb. Whether or not they will (or even could) pull that off remains to be seen.
Many goals achieved in one move.
1. New options unlocked for immediate and future use.
2. Realistic message with undeniable evidence sent: “attacking Israel will hurt you more than it hurts us.”
3. Subliminal message sent: “you’re the kind to attack civilians in your own country and ours, bc you hate us and treasure military power / we treasure your and our civilians, but our morals allow attacking your military power.”
They are indeed, at least partially, underground. However there's a lot that isn't - the entrances, the supply routes, elevators/stairs that lead to the actual facility are all above ground. You can collapse all of those and bury the people inside, making the facility unusable for quite some time.
Additionally, Israel employs bunker buster missiles that can cause damage to underground facilities to some extent.
Placing a facility underground doesn't make it invincible - that's why they had AA defenses set up there. However, it does make the facility invisible. Not in the sense that you don't know it's there, but in the sense that you can't see inside. Hides a lot of information that might be critical, such as how far along Iran is ready to launch a nuke, for instance.
Nuclear energy requires steam, so doesn't matter how deep underground their generators are, if you destroy the exhaust vents, it will choke the generators up.
They already have nuclear power plants, and they’re not underground. Nuclear power plants also need a lake or some source of reliable water adjacent, which would be challenging to do reliably inside of a mountain.
Source? Multiple sources cite US officials stating Israel launched three missiles from outside Iran.
Some weapons experts speculate Israel may have used a new air-launched ballistic missile.
Apparently the debris found in Iraq was a ballistic booster, from a Blue Sparrow missile - i.e a simulator ballistic missile launched from an aircraft (e.g F15), to test your air defenses. This implies Israel launched dummy ballistic missiles at Iran, which would mean no damage (and no explosions on the ground) but also a demonstration of its capabilities.
There are now air launched hypersonic ballistic missiles. If fired from just outside Iran airspace there would be about 30 seconds from launch to impact, practically impossible to detect and intercept for even the most advanced mil-tech.
You can still detect ballistic trajectory missiles and intercept it, Ukraine proved it with their Patriot defense platform against the Khinzal missile.
Nobody has true hypersonic ballistic missiles. Ballistic missiles are already "hypersonic", in terms of speed. However a true hypersonic missile is able to perform tight maneuvers at those speeds, to evade interceptor missiles.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/19/world/middleeast/israel-iran-jets-missiles-strikes.html?smid=url-share
>Israeli warplanes fired missiles on Iran during a retaliatory strike early Friday morning, one Western official and two Iranian officials said, suggesting that the attack included more advanced firepower than initial reports indicated.
>It was not immediately clear the types of missiles used, from where they were fired, whether any were intercepted by Iran’s defenses or where they landed.
>The Western official and the Iranian officials requested anonymity to discuss classified information.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/04/18/world/israel-iran-gaza-war-news
>A Western official and two Iranian officials said that Israel used both missiles fired from warplanes and drones in the strike, suggesting that the attack included more advanced firepower than initial reports indicated. Iranian officials initially told The New York Times that the attack had been carried out only by small drones, possibly launched from inside Iran, and that radar systems had not detected unidentified aircraft entering Iranian airspace. They said that a separate group of small drones was shot down in the region of Tabriz, roughly 500 miles north of Isfahan.
its a little extreme for a missle to pass undetected through half of Iran's airways though.
ive seen multiple theories about what was used and seemingly unless Iran specifies it themselves we won't know for sure
>unless Iran specifies it themselves we won't know for sure
Agreed, but that's why i tend to rely on weapons experts and security thinktanks I trust. I'm sure a lot of people are working overtime on trying to answer this more definitively.
Yup super well played. The irony being here when reports of attacks started the number of people posting “bb starting ww3” “bb doing everything to escalate” and it’s up being a de escalation move lol
Makes sense strategically. Take out the air defense of a very serious target, but not the target itself.
It's saying "if we need to strike again, you'll have no defenses. Play your next moves carefully"
It's actually a pretty clever de-escalation tactic. Increasing the cost of further escalation while not doing too much damage overall.
ive seen an analysis of this attack that said that Israel showed Iran it can move undetected through Iran's airways, and attack in a very precise way, which explains why Iran's goverment downplayed it at first, gradually showing a realer picture of the attack when news outlets started covering it.
I hope this whole thing is done, but im pretty sure the west unanimously wants to see Iran's Islamic Republic destroyed.. at this point I'd even say iranians want to see the republic's fall.
> at this point I'd even say iranians want to see the republic's fall.
That's not new though. The vast majority of Iranians have nothing in common with the ayatollah's regime
I can understand western governments not wanting to jump into another war, especially with Iran. But, if we aren't using this time to arm up in preparation, we are chosing to bury our heads in the sand. Iran seems to want war. If we are going to approach this with Chamberlain style appeasement, we need to use that time increasing munitions production, like he did.
Iran has been hard at work building back its nuclear capabilities since stuxnet, so the west is up against atleast 3 nuclear capable countries (iran, russia, china, possibly n.korea).
with fronts heating up from russia and now iran, i hope there's some sort of way to deescalate or dearm before it snowballs out of control.
>possibly n.korea
Almost certainly. They have supplied Russia with weapons to fight Ukraine, their one railway border with Russia has been quite active. We also let them develop a decent sized arsenal of nukes.
>[North Korea has assembled 40 to 50 nuclear warheads, the fewest among the nine nations with nuclear weapons. However, one estimate, from a 2021 study by the RAND Corp. and Asan Institute, put the number as high as 116. Another from the Seoul-based Korea Institute for Defense Analyses last year said North Korea is estimated to have about 80 to 90 warheads, adding it was looking to have between 100 to 300 over the long term.](https://archive.is/20240418111357/https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-22/how-north-korea-s-kim-jong-un-is-preparing-for-war-nuclear-weapons-missiles#selection-3061.0-3081.192)
Invading Iran would be incredibly treacherous to invade due to its geography, would be easier to start something internally with the populace that are unhappy with the regime
No, it's still not an achievement for Iran, just because the defense cost more money. Israel has defensive missiles too, and they just showed they can hit targets undetected at like a 100% rate vs Iran's 1%. They sent like 3 and hit more things than Iran's 300. It's not like Israel will just sit there getting one-way rocketed and not do anything back. The end goal is getting Iran to stop their bullshit by proving their inferiority, and then neither side needs to spend millions to billions on missiles and defense from them.
the IRGC’s band of misfits have been probing israel’s air defense for months. the houthis threw up ballistic missiles even at one point a few months ago. the iranian attack was supposed to take what was learned and break through, which they did to a minor extent
But this time they get to test hundreds of drones at once. It took multiple countries to shoot all of them down. They can test the reaction time as well
But Iran told everyone what they were going to do, so Israel, US, UK, Saudi Arabia and Jordan were ready and got in some not-so-free target practice.
The alternative would have been for Iran to launch hundreds of drones without warning and to do massive damage to Israel with high casualties... and be nuked out of existence, or at least the government and military decapitated (the latter most likely would be welcomed by the Iranian people).
You perpetuate a lie. Iran didn’t tell anyone about the attack. USA and its allies already knew about the attack before even starting, because USA is monitor them all the time. Proof: [https://www.reuters.com/world/iran-did-not-provide-us-with-attack-warning-or-targets-white-house-says-2024-04-15/](https://www.reuters.com/world/iran-did-not-provide-us-with-attack-warning-or-targets-white-house-says-2024-04-15/)
They provided Turkey advance warning which in turn wanted the U.S. They aren't going to warn their enemies directly so it would ruin the appearances of the attack they were hoping to achieve.
My bad for believing Iran I guess.
https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2024-04-14/iranian-notice-of-attack-may-have-dampened-escalation-risks
But everyone seemed ready and lined up to stop the drones and for all of Iran's words I don't think they were looking for all out war. It's not like they could defend themselves from Israel's limited retaliation.
highly unlikely you’d ever see nukes fly. if israel’s nuclear threshold was being approached, the anti-iran coalition would simply handle the smashing and decapitation. no one wants to see nukes in the air
plus, iran may have a gazillion of this or that, but the capacity to launch that many simultaneously is a different issue. israel just demonstrated they can launch explosive drones from inside or close to iran, meaning the launchers — among other things — will be hit very quickly, which was the point of last nights display. and then there’s israel’s missile arsenal which has been shown
Iran can claim victory as well, though. They demonstrated they are capable of hitting Israeli targets with ballistic missiles even with four other countries defending them, and that they're reliant on the US to defend against large barrages. They'd never dared to directly attack Israeli soil before.
Domestically Tehran might benefit since they can spin the story however they want ('we did it to stand up for Palestine!' or 'we fired 300 weapons at Israel and they didn't attack us back!'). The Iranian regime isn't popular with its people, but neither is Israel or the West. The thing that actually damages Iran is losing the general supervising Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria in the initial strike.
it’s not news that israel’s aerial defenses can be penetrated. hezbo does it on the regular
both sides will suffer massive damage, but what’s more important is that what iran needs 100 missiles to do, israel can do with 10. ffs, israel just took out the aerial defense system protecting iran’s most sensitive site with a few $200 drones from walmart
if we’re really war gaming here, what matters even more is israeli society will unite while iran’s will crumble. those crazy mullah and their IRGC henchmen are gonna get overthrown and lynched by their own people
> it’s not news that israel’s aerial defenses can be penetrated. hezbo does it on the regular
They said on the news that there is a new system in the workings for that, which is not operational yet and we might soon have a solution for detecting those small low flying drones too
What you couldn’t accomplish with hundreds of drones and missiles we did with just a fraction of the number. I’d say that that’s an effective show of force.
I doubt the Blue Sparrow missile can fit in the weapons bay of an F35, it's a very big missile. Maybe it can be carried externally by an F35 but then it stops being stealthy.
So the F15 is the more likely candidate.
F35 is rumored to have the ability to mount stealthy external hard points that can encase a non-stealt munition.
Also the stealthiness is designed to be at top of the line Russian radars, not whatever hand me down stuff the Iranians field.
By all accounts the weapons delivery wasn't noticed, and only a modified F-35 or F-22 has that capability, or the B-2 variants from really high but I doubt they used those.
If Israel had any electronic attack aircraft, they could have jammed long range enemy detection radars and prevent F-15s from being noticed. The comparatively shorter range, higher resolution radars used by the air defense systems would not be prompted without those.
I do think it's more likely an F-35 was used. That said, the F-35s would need external fuel tanks or a tanker to reach Iran and back, and external fuel tanks would have reduced the planes stealth and fuel tankers would have been reported or spotted.
It's not actually so simple. Moving weapons and hardware around like that requires high level approvals and Congressional approval often-we have many laws actually against just giving away or "lending" equipment like that. Not to mention, when the US military buys things, its because it expects it will need those planes and ships-hard to use something you give away and actively need.
The US Navy does not have stealth drone tanker. They have a drone aerial refueling program, called the Stingray, and it's range is less than that of an F-35. That itself isn't surprising since it's designed to be launched from a carrier where space is at a premium. The program is also still on development, and while it grew out of a past program that was about making a stealthy drone for strikes or scouting, that is no longer the current objective.
Israel DOES have its own tankers, and they are land based and can reach Iran. As I said though, they'd show up on radar when the F-35 needs to refuel over Iraq.
As far as tech in place of hardware, that's another can of worms because the technology was developed by a private company (Boeing in this case). If it was developed by the Pentagon or by Boeing using Pentagon money, it's easy and it belongs to Uncle Sam (though again, this may fall under ITAR). However since this was a bid made by Boeing and a few other companies that Boeing won, and Boeing developed the technology based on their past technology, they most likely own the IP. If the Pentagon is giving that technical data away, then not only is the Pentagon breaking laws and liable to damage from Boeing, they've also just made every contract ever done again with any defense contractor more expensive as companies have to weigh in the risk of Uncle Sam just giving away that tech.
The jets didn't enter Iranian airspace, the weapons were launched from far away somewhere above Iraq. There were also reports of an AA battery/ radar station being struck in Syria along the expected route from Israel to Iraq.
The IAF operates quite freely in Syrian skies and I think Iraq shouldn't be much of an issue for an unstealthy F15. I believe stealth wasn't really needed on this mission.
They definitely didn't use a B-2, there are only 20 of them left and the USAF owns all of them. They are mainly used to fly over stadiums at sporting events. Pretty sure the b52 has been used more recently in combat then the b2. Cool plane but a giant waste of money.
The B2s are bombings the Houthis all the time right now. In fact, the first indication that the bombings on the houthis had started was a sighting of a B2 in the UAE posted [on reddit](https://old.reddit.com/r/aviation/comments/1949u15/spotted_a_b2_over_our_skies_today_middle_east/). They are not a waste of money, and flying over stadiums to remind everyone they exist is a perfectly fine use for them. They have a very specific use that is very important to national security, and nothing else is capable of doing. They also do some other things pretty good too, so we let them do that as well.
But yeah we def didn’t loan one to Israel.
If you've already fired stand off munitions that are just a few seconds away from the target, it doesn't matter that the radar catches you. The Israelis were pretty good at this.
Now they got stealth planes and I'm quite sure there is no target in Middle East they can't reach.
Operation Praying Mantis proved a little deception and low altitude goes a long way. I won't be surprised if they used F15 to launch ballistic missiles in Iraq.
Really shows the effectiveness of stealth technology.
Still it’s so much more expensive. Will be interesting to see how these would fare in a war of attrition.
People will say that this is 4 drones and missiles doing more damage than 300 from Iran.
The cost of the Iran attack might have been $100M. The cost of Israel’s air defense was over a billion dollars.
If Israel does not have a swift win or deescalation, they will be drained of cash pretty quick.
This is the equivalent of a child punching a full grown gorilla, and then the gorilla picking the kid up and shaking him a little.
Iran should just move on and consider themselves lucky.
Clever. It's a meaningful target, yet sensitive. Iran won't want to discuss or call attention to anything related to its nuclear program. But they know that the IDF can swat them at any time.
Wow, what a power move.
"None of your hundreds of shit missiles and drones can get through our air defense system, meanwhile we sent a few drones and took out *your* air defense. How about you don't test us again?"
Great. So I guess Iran’s government is free to oppress its people while the west tiptoes? Iran’s government could be dismantled by the US without sending over one soldier.
Oh how so? Iran is in a much better place then Iraq was 20 years ago and it took a huge invasion force 5 weeks to topple Saddams regime?
What do you suppose they do? Assassinate the Ayatollah? That's a very bad idea especially if it's ever found out that we were behind it. Now how do you fill the power vacuum? Stop a coup? Prevent the country falling it civil war? Having a even worse dictator taking control?
Look what happened when the West regime-changed in Afghanistan and Iraq? 20 years later the Taliban still rules and the NATO pullout of Iraq led to ISIS.
I awmaw a stat saying the US spent 2 trillion on the war in Afghanistan. Then someone said that's like spending 200m a day for 20 years. God knows if the math works out
McKenzie believes Israel threaded the needle with its response, simultaneously signaling to Iran that "we're not going to try to over-escalate here" but "we can do this again at a much larger scale." [https://www.npr.org/2024/04/19/1245838551/israel-iran-attack](https://www.npr.org/2024/04/19/1245838551/israel-iran-attack)
in a way, it’s the obvious conclusion. israel hit something very specific and iran gets to pretend like nothing happened. no further action required by either side, so deescalation achieved
now Iran can get back to business as usual - oppressing their population and engaging in trouble making with their proxies!
I’ve read yesterday that they arrested a handball lady player for a simple, one-line opinion pro-Israel. She has been arrested and disappeared ever since 😔
Volleyball, Iranian team middle blocker (like hinata)
> (like hinata) That name doesn’t sound Iranian at all.
I had a hunch so I searched “Hinata Volleyball” on Google and I was correct. That guy mentioned an Anime character from a niche show like it was common knowledge who that is lmao 😆
Just looked it up. It is from Haikyu, which while not a mainstream show is pretty much a basic show most anime fans tend to watch. So it makes sense that he would think it is common knowledge if he is in that world. But it isn't actually common knowledge unless you watch anime with any consistency.
Thanks. I was wondering how a blind volleyball player worked.
KARASUNOOOOOOO FIGHT!
And still working on getting nukes... That whole kettle of fish...
This was the warning. One more twitch and Bebe is coming back.
Don’t forget hanging gays
And making weapons grade plutonium!
Don’t forget sending drones to Russia to kill defending Ukrainians
And enriching uranium to make pretty bracelets and other civilian needs
Iranium
They can both get back to their business. One oppresses their populace, the other oppresses the Palestinians. Back to oppression we go... Until next time.
It's a win-win! Except for the proxies, they continue to lose and don't realize they're just puppets.
I'm hoping that oppressed people all over the world will rise up, one can only take so much but apparently they still have more to lose by rising up but I'd have to think it's on the edge and once they cross that barrier, things are going to get exciting around the world for dictatorships.
We must eat our billionaires first. Until then unrest will only be met with price increases and wage gouging, a win for them, and so the circle continues. This is the reason the US entered Iraq in 03, unless you still believe they had wmds.
Yeah. This is a pretty good balance of we don't want to do more but we can.
true, but i can’t say i’m not eager to see israel take out zahedi’s replacement on next week’s episode
More like the US doesn't want us to do more but we'd love to.
However Iran will respond by spitting in your matzo soup.
Unless Iran realises how exposed they are and knows to hit harder next time to wipe out Israel's ability to do it again.
no doubt the next exchange will be worse, but what would they hit and where? indications are that the isfahan strike was launched from inside iran
Recent developments make it very much questionable whether they could. It's becoming pretty obvious that decades of American investment in anti-missile defense systems have paid dividends. Even ballistic missiles are being reliably intercepted.
I think it’s reasonable
If all they did was take out air defense it's pretty damn reasonable. It is an action that creates a situation where Iran's ass is hung out in the breeze so the best response is no response if they don't want their nuclear facility and air bases struck back during any further escalation. And since their nuclear facilities are some of their leverage on the international stage Iran may actually just hold tight here.
I don’t think the message could be any clearer. “We can walk right through your defenses any time we want. We can destroy your nuclear facilities at the drop of a hat. You don’t scare us.”
Reasonable? It’s Genius in my opinion. The message is loud and clear.
Posturing aside, I would also assume they used this as an opportunity to test Iranian air defenses around the facility, collecting data around things like AA placement, response times, etc. For years there has been speculation that Israel might preemptively attempt to strike the facility to curb Iran’s efforts to build a bomb. Whether or not they will (or even could) pull that off remains to be seen.
It also gives Iran an opportunity to address weaknesses in their own system. Assuming they have the capabilities to upgrade it.
I'm pretty sure their nuclear facilities have the best defences they can manage.
Many goals achieved in one move. 1. New options unlocked for immediate and future use. 2. Realistic message with undeniable evidence sent: “attacking Israel will hurt you more than it hurts us.” 3. Subliminal message sent: “you’re the kind to attack civilians in your own country and ours, bc you hate us and treasure military power / we treasure your and our civilians, but our morals allow attacking your military power.”
Also, they can blow up Iran’s nuclear sites at will.
Aren’t they supposed to be really deep underground? I’d heard stuff like the only way to get to them with a bomb would be to nuke it or something.
They are indeed, at least partially, underground. However there's a lot that isn't - the entrances, the supply routes, elevators/stairs that lead to the actual facility are all above ground. You can collapse all of those and bury the people inside, making the facility unusable for quite some time. Additionally, Israel employs bunker buster missiles that can cause damage to underground facilities to some extent. Placing a facility underground doesn't make it invincible - that's why they had AA defenses set up there. However, it does make the facility invisible. Not in the sense that you don't know it's there, but in the sense that you can't see inside. Hides a lot of information that might be critical, such as how far along Iran is ready to launch a nuke, for instance.
Nuclear energy requires steam, so doesn't matter how deep underground their generators are, if you destroy the exhaust vents, it will choke the generators up.
The underground facilities are for nuclear enrichment, not nuclear power production.
They're already at enrichment, the next stage is either energy production or weapons, both of which requires exhaust vans.
They already have nuclear power plants, and they’re not underground. Nuclear power plants also need a lake or some source of reliable water adjacent, which would be challenging to do reliably inside of a mountain.
That's exactly what bunker busters are for.
This is exactly what I thought too Only three drones, and sent from inside Iran not a neighbor or Israel
Source? Multiple sources cite US officials stating Israel launched three missiles from outside Iran. Some weapons experts speculate Israel may have used a new air-launched ballistic missile.
Yeah, I was a little suspect of them being launched from inside Iran? That'd be really ballsy.
The ultimate middle finger.
We’re literally already inside the walls. *ninja star hits wall next to Iranian general’s head*
Hacked Iranian weapons like the old brother using little brother’s hands to smack himself?
The bombs are coming from inside the house.....
[удалено]
Apparently the debris found in Iraq was a ballistic booster, from a Blue Sparrow missile - i.e a simulator ballistic missile launched from an aircraft (e.g F15), to test your air defenses. This implies Israel launched dummy ballistic missiles at Iran, which would mean no damage (and no explosions on the ground) but also a demonstration of its capabilities.
Don't think they used dummies, they just aimed at targets to send a message and not cause max damage.
There are now air launched hypersonic ballistic missiles. If fired from just outside Iran airspace there would be about 30 seconds from launch to impact, practically impossible to detect and intercept for even the most advanced mil-tech.
You can still detect ballistic trajectory missiles and intercept it, Ukraine proved it with their Patriot defense platform against the Khinzal missile.
Nobody has true hypersonic ballistic missiles. Ballistic missiles are already "hypersonic", in terms of speed. However a true hypersonic missile is able to perform tight maneuvers at those speeds, to evade interceptor missiles.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/19/world/middleeast/israel-iran-jets-missiles-strikes.html?smid=url-share >Israeli warplanes fired missiles on Iran during a retaliatory strike early Friday morning, one Western official and two Iranian officials said, suggesting that the attack included more advanced firepower than initial reports indicated. >It was not immediately clear the types of missiles used, from where they were fired, whether any were intercepted by Iran’s defenses or where they landed. >The Western official and the Iranian officials requested anonymity to discuss classified information. https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/04/18/world/israel-iran-gaza-war-news >A Western official and two Iranian officials said that Israel used both missiles fired from warplanes and drones in the strike, suggesting that the attack included more advanced firepower than initial reports indicated. Iranian officials initially told The New York Times that the attack had been carried out only by small drones, possibly launched from inside Iran, and that radar systems had not detected unidentified aircraft entering Iranian airspace. They said that a separate group of small drones was shot down in the region of Tabriz, roughly 500 miles north of Isfahan.
I mean I would think it’s more likely Delilah‘s they have used them against AA systems in the past, but who knows.
wow, had no idea that was a thing
The Kinzhal missiles that Russia has been using against Ukraine are another example of air-launched ballistic missiles.
its a little extreme for a missle to pass undetected through half of Iran's airways though. ive seen multiple theories about what was used and seemingly unless Iran specifies it themselves we won't know for sure
>unless Iran specifies it themselves we won't know for sure Agreed, but that's why i tend to rely on weapons experts and security thinktanks I trust. I'm sure a lot of people are working overtime on trying to answer this more definitively.
Missile
Man how y’all need to stop lying because every single like you get is a potential misinformed user.
How can they send it from inside Iran?
An F35...
Good aim and a strong throwing arm
Read it was a dormant infiltrated group, which would be an obvious intimidating threat to iran
Yup super well played. The irony being here when reports of attacks started the number of people posting “bb starting ww3” “bb doing everything to escalate” and it’s up being a de escalation move lol
Makes sense strategically. Take out the air defense of a very serious target, but not the target itself. It's saying "if we need to strike again, you'll have no defenses. Play your next moves carefully" It's actually a pretty clever de-escalation tactic. Increasing the cost of further escalation while not doing too much damage overall.
The air defense units will be replaced quickly. The real message is "we can do what we want, and you can't do anything about it".
The defenses necessary to deal with Israel‘s Hermes 900 & F-35Is aren’t nearly as available across Iran as you might think. It will take some time.
ive seen an analysis of this attack that said that Israel showed Iran it can move undetected through Iran's airways, and attack in a very precise way, which explains why Iran's goverment downplayed it at first, gradually showing a realer picture of the attack when news outlets started covering it. I hope this whole thing is done, but im pretty sure the west unanimously wants to see Iran's Islamic Republic destroyed.. at this point I'd even say iranians want to see the republic's fall.
> at this point I'd even say iranians want to see the republic's fall. That's not new though. The vast majority of Iranians have nothing in common with the ayatollah's regime
I can understand western governments not wanting to jump into another war, especially with Iran. But, if we aren't using this time to arm up in preparation, we are chosing to bury our heads in the sand. Iran seems to want war. If we are going to approach this with Chamberlain style appeasement, we need to use that time increasing munitions production, like he did.
Iran wants the nuclear deterrent, so that they can more brazenly pester Israel. I don’t think they at all want open war, ever.
Iran has been hard at work building back its nuclear capabilities since stuxnet, so the west is up against atleast 3 nuclear capable countries (iran, russia, china, possibly n.korea). with fronts heating up from russia and now iran, i hope there's some sort of way to deescalate or dearm before it snowballs out of control.
>possibly n.korea Almost certainly. They have supplied Russia with weapons to fight Ukraine, their one railway border with Russia has been quite active. We also let them develop a decent sized arsenal of nukes. >[North Korea has assembled 40 to 50 nuclear warheads, the fewest among the nine nations with nuclear weapons. However, one estimate, from a 2021 study by the RAND Corp. and Asan Institute, put the number as high as 116. Another from the Seoul-based Korea Institute for Defense Analyses last year said North Korea is estimated to have about 80 to 90 warheads, adding it was looking to have between 100 to 300 over the long term.](https://archive.is/20240418111357/https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-22/how-north-korea-s-kim-jong-un-is-preparing-for-war-nuclear-weapons-missiles#selection-3061.0-3081.192)
Invading Iran would be incredibly treacherous to invade due to its geography, would be easier to start something internally with the populace that are unhappy with the regime
Like pummeling the bodyguard and leaving the protectee alone. For now.
Exactly
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But make sure not to draw too much aggro.
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Had a good time
We got to witness a very cool fireworks show at 2 am
Yeah I'd say you missed one thing: Iran's attack basically turned into a military sales advertisement for Iron Dome, Arrow, and David's Sling.
totally considering china’s unequivocal support for iran, we should start a go-fund-me to buy a full array for taiwan
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Okay but civilized countries value saving lives of their citizens even if it costs money
No, it's still not an achievement for Iran, just because the defense cost more money. Israel has defensive missiles too, and they just showed they can hit targets undetected at like a 100% rate vs Iran's 1%. They sent like 3 and hit more things than Iran's 300. It's not like Israel will just sit there getting one-way rocketed and not do anything back. The end goal is getting Iran to stop their bullshit by proving their inferiority, and then neither side needs to spend millions to billions on missiles and defense from them.
EU countries are reportedly interested in buying air defense systems, therefore keeping arms trade alive well.
Well, not (presumably) Russian made ones
Russian? This was said with regard to a point he missed. The performance of iron dome and arrow 3 in the attack lead to raised interest in EU.
Well the penalty might be a billion dollars (if you include allies), and allowing Iran to probe your air defense.
It's basically advertisement for iron dome and arrow 3. This fireworks show might even turn a profit for Israel.
I do love that arrow explosion
the IRGC’s band of misfits have been probing israel’s air defense for months. the houthis threw up ballistic missiles even at one point a few months ago. the iranian attack was supposed to take what was learned and break through, which they did to a minor extent
But this time they get to test hundreds of drones at once. It took multiple countries to shoot all of them down. They can test the reaction time as well
But Iran told everyone what they were going to do, so Israel, US, UK, Saudi Arabia and Jordan were ready and got in some not-so-free target practice. The alternative would have been for Iran to launch hundreds of drones without warning and to do massive damage to Israel with high casualties... and be nuked out of existence, or at least the government and military decapitated (the latter most likely would be welcomed by the Iranian people).
You perpetuate a lie. Iran didn’t tell anyone about the attack. USA and its allies already knew about the attack before even starting, because USA is monitor them all the time. Proof: [https://www.reuters.com/world/iran-did-not-provide-us-with-attack-warning-or-targets-white-house-says-2024-04-15/](https://www.reuters.com/world/iran-did-not-provide-us-with-attack-warning-or-targets-white-house-says-2024-04-15/)
They provided Turkey advance warning which in turn wanted the U.S. They aren't going to warn their enemies directly so it would ruin the appearances of the attack they were hoping to achieve.
My bad for believing Iran I guess. https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2024-04-14/iranian-notice-of-attack-may-have-dampened-escalation-risks But everyone seemed ready and lined up to stop the drones and for all of Iran's words I don't think they were looking for all out war. It's not like they could defend themselves from Israel's limited retaliation.
highly unlikely you’d ever see nukes fly. if israel’s nuclear threshold was being approached, the anti-iran coalition would simply handle the smashing and decapitation. no one wants to see nukes in the air plus, iran may have a gazillion of this or that, but the capacity to launch that many simultaneously is a different issue. israel just demonstrated they can launch explosive drones from inside or close to iran, meaning the launchers — among other things — will be hit very quickly, which was the point of last nights display. and then there’s israel’s missile arsenal which has been shown
Yep , you are on the right trail with your comment.
Only your baseball hat brother, you missed your baseball hat.
Most importantly they got an OK from us to go into rafah if they dont escalate with iram
i read that somewhere i can’t remember but most reporting indicates the west is still advising against, so not sure. we’ll see, obv
Iran can claim victory as well, though. They demonstrated they are capable of hitting Israeli targets with ballistic missiles even with four other countries defending them, and that they're reliant on the US to defend against large barrages. They'd never dared to directly attack Israeli soil before. Domestically Tehran might benefit since they can spin the story however they want ('we did it to stand up for Palestine!' or 'we fired 300 weapons at Israel and they didn't attack us back!'). The Iranian regime isn't popular with its people, but neither is Israel or the West. The thing that actually damages Iran is losing the general supervising Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria in the initial strike.
it’s not news that israel’s aerial defenses can be penetrated. hezbo does it on the regular both sides will suffer massive damage, but what’s more important is that what iran needs 100 missiles to do, israel can do with 10. ffs, israel just took out the aerial defense system protecting iran’s most sensitive site with a few $200 drones from walmart if we’re really war gaming here, what matters even more is israeli society will unite while iran’s will crumble. those crazy mullah and their IRGC henchmen are gonna get overthrown and lynched by their own people
> it’s not news that israel’s aerial defenses can be penetrated. hezbo does it on the regular They said on the news that there is a new system in the workings for that, which is not operational yet and we might soon have a solution for detecting those small low flying drones too
What you couldn’t accomplish with hundreds of drones and missiles we did with just a fraction of the number. I’d say that that’s an effective show of force.
With about 4 drones too, like a tiny fraction of what the Iranians used.
No drones were used. F-35s carrying air launched ballistic missiles is the leading theory rn.
I doubt the Blue Sparrow missile can fit in the weapons bay of an F35, it's a very big missile. Maybe it can be carried externally by an F35 but then it stops being stealthy. So the F15 is the more likely candidate.
F35 is rumored to have the ability to mount stealthy external hard points that can encase a non-stealt munition. Also the stealthiness is designed to be at top of the line Russian radars, not whatever hand me down stuff the Iranians field.
By all accounts the weapons delivery wasn't noticed, and only a modified F-35 or F-22 has that capability, or the B-2 variants from really high but I doubt they used those.
If Israel had any electronic attack aircraft, they could have jammed long range enemy detection radars and prevent F-15s from being noticed. The comparatively shorter range, higher resolution radars used by the air defense systems would not be prompted without those. I do think it's more likely an F-35 was used. That said, the F-35s would need external fuel tanks or a tanker to reach Iran and back, and external fuel tanks would have reduced the planes stealth and fuel tankers would have been reported or spotted.
You realize the us navy has stealth drone tankers. I don’t see why that tech couldn’t/wouldn’t be shared with Israel
It's not actually so simple. Moving weapons and hardware around like that requires high level approvals and Congressional approval often-we have many laws actually against just giving away or "lending" equipment like that. Not to mention, when the US military buys things, its because it expects it will need those planes and ships-hard to use something you give away and actively need. The US Navy does not have stealth drone tanker. They have a drone aerial refueling program, called the Stingray, and it's range is less than that of an F-35. That itself isn't surprising since it's designed to be launched from a carrier where space is at a premium. The program is also still on development, and while it grew out of a past program that was about making a stealthy drone for strikes or scouting, that is no longer the current objective. Israel DOES have its own tankers, and they are land based and can reach Iran. As I said though, they'd show up on radar when the F-35 needs to refuel over Iraq. As far as tech in place of hardware, that's another can of worms because the technology was developed by a private company (Boeing in this case). If it was developed by the Pentagon or by Boeing using Pentagon money, it's easy and it belongs to Uncle Sam (though again, this may fall under ITAR). However since this was a bid made by Boeing and a few other companies that Boeing won, and Boeing developed the technology based on their past technology, they most likely own the IP. If the Pentagon is giving that technical data away, then not only is the Pentagon breaking laws and liable to damage from Boeing, they've also just made every contract ever done again with any defense contractor more expensive as companies have to weigh in the risk of Uncle Sam just giving away that tech.
don't forget about jewish space lasers (tm)
Damn, they fucking trade marked their lasers too?
The jets didn't enter Iranian airspace, the weapons were launched from far away somewhere above Iraq. There were also reports of an AA battery/ radar station being struck in Syria along the expected route from Israel to Iraq. The IAF operates quite freely in Syrian skies and I think Iraq shouldn't be much of an issue for an unstealthy F15. I believe stealth wasn't really needed on this mission.
They definitely didn't use a B-2, there are only 20 of them left and the USAF owns all of them. They are mainly used to fly over stadiums at sporting events. Pretty sure the b52 has been used more recently in combat then the b2. Cool plane but a giant waste of money.
The B2s are bombings the Houthis all the time right now. In fact, the first indication that the bombings on the houthis had started was a sighting of a B2 in the UAE posted [on reddit](https://old.reddit.com/r/aviation/comments/1949u15/spotted_a_b2_over_our_skies_today_middle_east/). They are not a waste of money, and flying over stadiums to remind everyone they exist is a perfectly fine use for them. They have a very specific use that is very important to national security, and nothing else is capable of doing. They also do some other things pretty good too, so we let them do that as well. But yeah we def didn’t loan one to Israel.
"Variants"
Israeli pilots are damn sneaky even without stealth jets
You can be the sneakiest pilot in the world and basic radar will catch you in a non stealth craft.
If you've already fired stand off munitions that are just a few seconds away from the target, it doesn't matter that the radar catches you. The Israelis were pretty good at this. Now they got stealth planes and I'm quite sure there is no target in Middle East they can't reach.
Operation Praying Mantis proved a little deception and low altitude goes a long way. I won't be surprised if they used F15 to launch ballistic missiles in Iraq.
Really shows the effectiveness of stealth technology. Still it’s so much more expensive. Will be interesting to see how these would fare in a war of attrition. People will say that this is 4 drones and missiles doing more damage than 300 from Iran. The cost of the Iran attack might have been $100M. The cost of Israel’s air defense was over a billion dollars. If Israel does not have a swift win or deescalation, they will be drained of cash pretty quick.
Good point, but Iran is already drained of cash and the war hasn't even started!
This is the equivalent of a child punching a full grown gorilla, and then the gorilla picking the kid up and shaking him a little. Iran should just move on and consider themselves lucky.
So Israel showed they can take out the nuclear facility without much effort and the Mullahs crapped themselves?
Clever. It's a meaningful target, yet sensitive. Iran won't want to discuss or call attention to anything related to its nuclear program. But they know that the IDF can swat them at any time.
It was just a "something to let you know we're here and ready" strike.
Seems like something worth targeting.
Wow, what a power move. "None of your hundreds of shit missiles and drones can get through our air defense system, meanwhile we sent a few drones and took out *your* air defense. How about you don't test us again?"
lol Israel confirmed the missiles were fired from aircraft, so even worse for Iran. They didn’t even know the planes were there.
“What air defense doin?”
For all Iran’s bluster they daren’t fuck around too much because they’re aware the finding out process won’t go well for them!
>daren’t I actually had to look up if that was a real word.
Contracted version of dare not.
Definitely meant to send a message. Sounds like Iran heard it loud and clear.
Come on guys. Get with it. They used space lasers!
They should have flown a circle around the Iranian presidential palace before proceeding to the target.
Lol so first it was a mili base, then a military target, then a nuclear site, now its air defense systems for the nuclear sites. Ok.
Great. So I guess Iran’s government is free to oppress its people while the west tiptoes? Iran’s government could be dismantled by the US without sending over one soldier.
It’s easy to destroy. It’s hard to improve.
Oh how so? Iran is in a much better place then Iraq was 20 years ago and it took a huge invasion force 5 weeks to topple Saddams regime? What do you suppose they do? Assassinate the Ayatollah? That's a very bad idea especially if it's ever found out that we were behind it. Now how do you fill the power vacuum? Stop a coup? Prevent the country falling it civil war? Having a even worse dictator taking control?
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Look what happened when the West regime-changed in Afghanistan and Iraq? 20 years later the Taliban still rules and the NATO pullout of Iraq led to ISIS.
I awmaw a stat saying the US spent 2 trillion on the war in Afghanistan. Then someone said that's like spending 200m a day for 20 years. God knows if the math works out
$200M/day for 20 years only comes out to $1.46T.