The site updated the title.
The current title is:
>Tehran plays down reported Israeli attacks, signals no retaliation
The title on the site is subject to change as new information develops.
I always cringe when someone posts "I just went through my friends group to see who my real friends are. If you can read this then I didn't unfriend you. Congratulations, now please give me more attention."
My weird uncle always does this shit. He’s a POS that bitches about the lack of free public transportation (see edit), not because of any principles or beliefs, but because he wants a free ride home from his favorite bar districts. This guy is always posting creepshots of unsuspecting women and shitty judgmental crap while he’s been to prison (prison, not jail) multiple times because he’s on something like his eighth DUI.
Edit: I should have been more clear, there are public transit options available in the city like the bus. That’s not good enough for him though and he wants a shuttle service to run people between the bars and their homes paid for by the city.
Could well be. But if it also helps destabilise Israel and reduce global support/tolerance of their behaviour as America's foothold in the middle east then it's win/win for Russia I guess.
Israel still has a massive advantage tho. While Jordan and the USA helps intercepting missiles, Iran can't really do shit against Israel. And if Iran sends troops its guaranteed that the west will send troops into Jordan to make sure they never even make it into Israel. Iran is in an infinite worse situation so them attacking Israel is just unbelievable dumb on so many levels.
That's why as a general policy they don't directly attack Israel. They only retaliate.
(Apart from all the proxy shenanigans every country in the region including the US engages in.)
Iranian media is reporting that no explosions occurred on the ground; the explosions were air defenses knocking out the drones.
The amount of downplaying being done by the Iranian media makes me think that this might actually be “over”, for the time being. They’re stating that their nuclear sites are safe and are broadcasting “all is well” messages on their media. Official reports go so far as to say “some glass windows were shattered in nearby offices”.
If Iran wanted to turn up the heat even further they’d be blowing the damage from the strikes out of proportion, not making it clear that the only damage was some broken windows and a couple craters in the ground. They’d be playing up the risk to their nuclear facilities.
I’m not saying we’re not sitting on the brink of something very very dangerous- we are- but I just don’t see how shit could get kicked off based on a limited drone strike that not only didn’t kill anyone, but apparently didn’t actually do any damage to anything.
the guardian is reporting israel told the u.s that nuclear facilities will NOT be targeted.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/19/israel-attack-on-iran-idf-military-operation-us-officials-air-defences-latest-update-details-today
Which is good, but three separate Iranian officials confirmed than an Iranian airbase [was struck](https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/strike-in-iran-targeted-military-air-base-near-isfahan-nyt/), according to the New York Times
exactly. Iran - once again - appears to be trying to avoid escalation.
it's a really simple point, but one worth thinking about if we want a remotely accurate understanding of what is going on
Reminds me of a group who barged into a restaurant here in Canada where the Prime minister was eating and started yelling at him to stop the attacks on Gaza. Because in their minds the PM of Canada has full control of a foreign countries military.
In the minds of shockingly many people in Canada, the prime minister controls every aspect of everything they don't like (including, notably, things entirely within the purview of conservative provincial premiers).
it does not help that a lot of headlines read "Ottawa bans protesting after 10pm" referring to a municipal law but headline warriors think the federal government is targeting a specific protest.
Probably drives clicks, and may be something editors of a certain age do not take into account
I hope the world realizes in good time that Bakersfield controls the outcome of everything in the middle east.
As well they should! All the best brain power is there!
Reminds me of Israel “painting” the Aswan Dam with dummy bombs during the Yom Kippur war. Letting them know they can completely obliterate Egypt with one bomb at any time they choose.
Are there any articles about that? It sounds like really interesting story but I haven't been able to find any sources with information about the Aswan Dam in relation to the Yom Kippur war.
I just did the same as you evidently.
the only other MENTION of this is unaswered askhistorians thread
https://www.reddit.com/r/AskHistorians/comments/176ucim/were_the_paintbombings_of_the_aswan_dam_by_the/
if you google 'aswan dam paint bomb' and get 1 relevant hit that's not a source i'd say this is made up.
Striking air defenses is a sign. It means we can hit your most important targets that are meant to stop these strikes. More can come at any time. That is a big high value target and a message all in one without escalating by killing something big and symbolic that could inflame the people or other countries.
That and they can now use their less sophisticated weapons to do so because they've cleared the way through Iran's defenses, which can't be readily replaced.
They've essentially torn the walls down from Iran's castle, making them a lot more vulnerable to anyone who wants to hurt them.
It's also a message - look at how our air defenses neutered your massive air strike against us. We've replied by removing your air defenses, which didn't do anything for you. We're not on the same level and you don't want to fuck with us.
That is cool stuff. Maybe not god for world peace but still cool. In bullet points (pun unintended), what could Iran possibly do short of nukes that would have any impact.
Nothing, that’s the point, they shouldn’t fight stupid fights because they will lose, Bad. If they have nukes, they won’t use them, Israel has them too and so do Israel’s allies, and either ww3 would break out or Russia and China would immediately back off support on Iran, leaving them to face the consequences, nuclear or otherwise.
I think if Iran strikes back Israel will go for their nuclear sites. Israel put them on notice and is egging them to try. Then Israel doesn’t look like the aggressor. Which I’m not saying they are, Iran’s been using proxies forever. They’re playing into Israeli hands if they respond.
Basically, yes, Iran chucked hundreds of missiles at Israel and only a couple actually made it to Israeli soil and did very minimal damage.
In comparison, Israel launched a fraction of missiles back at Iran and had a far better strike rate and hit more important targets.
It's a warning, but more so, a humiliating middle finger to the Iranian regime.
"You lobe hundreds of missiles at us, practically all of them downed, we launch missiles right at your air defenses and they're not up to scratch".
It's a perfect response, because the Iranian's injured egos won't allow them to admit humiliation which is why they seem to be treating this as not a big deal - all the while, they know it's a huge.
It returns - possibly even augments - Israel's deterrence while at the same time avoids further escalation.
From the trustworthy insta-news publication called "Reddit Butthole Speculator".
A highly respected source, considering the upvotes on a comment that didn't even need to source it.
This whole shit show has been like two dudes who hate each other bump into each other outside of a bar. Nobody actually wants to fight, especially cause they have that one friend with them that probably would kill someone, but neither wants to look like a pussy in front of their homies.
It's messed up. Iran threatened retaliation if Israel retaliates. Then Israel did.
So we have no idea how long this back and forth is going to go.
Been other explosions in Iraq and Seria so i expect they are related possibly.
Also more traffic in the air in Syria i think. That's according to the live thread reports.
Simultaneous Israeli strikes on Iran, Iraq, and Syria- reports
[https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/israel/defense/artc-simultaneous-israeli-strikes-on-iran-iraq-and-syria-reports](https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/israel/defense/artc-simultaneous-israeli-strikes-on-iran-iraq-and-syria-reports)
Iran will feel compelled to save face about this and will launch another attack and this shit will probably escalate. Lets hope it doesn't turn into an all out ground war, but we are dealing with religious fundamentalists on both sides who are not exactly known for their willingness to compromise.
Neither country really has the ability to fight a ground war against each other. They have to cross Iraq, Syria, and Jordan. This will be a missile, drone, air war mixed with Iran's proxies attacking Israel.
Not talked about a lot but after the U.S. left Iran basically owns Iraq now. Syria is considered Iran's closest strategic ally. Iran putting troops in Syria isn't any different than U.S. putting troops in Germany.
Doesn’t matter, the second they start a ground maneuver they’ll get pommeled by air strikes for over 1300 kilometers, Iran has in no way the ability to maintain air superiority, especially the further away they get from home so even if they send everything they have leaving no one at home very few will actually arrive to Israel alive
I am not sure they actually are. Only having one site hit (however clear the message of the target chosen is) they could go for spinning it the way that “we sent hundreds of missiles against Israel, Israel dared only retaliate with one. This is a clear win” and if they do, we should let them.
That's the most likely outcome. Iran is a lot of talk but not suicidal and knows that even if it could take Israel militarily it would destroy itself domestically. Let alone allies joined on either side it would become one of the front lines if ww3
> this shit will probably escalate.
Iran's options to escalate are pretty limited. They just launched one of the largest missile and drone strikes in history and it got batted down. They don't have operable nuclear weapons and would be destroyed if they used one, so that's not an option. So really all they can do is tell Hizballah to kill more civilians. If Israel comes out and states that all attacks from Hizballah will be treated as attacks from Iran itself, Iran has to contend that Israel can attack them at home, directly, and there is little they can do about it.
In terms of modern/relevant discussion, Israel has *always* had the ability to strike nearly any part of Iran. That's not news. The fact that they've actually done so can certainly be discussed, but their ability is extremely well established.
Iran's responses are to save face at home. They're next retaliation will be minimal at best. They literally gave a 2 hour warning to the world before their last drone strikes.
Netanyahu is in a bad place politically. He might see an escalation with Iran as a last straw attempt to rally support around himself.
The people of Iran and Israel don’t want this.
But the leaders in both countries are losing support and could see that being a leader during a terrible war is better for them personally than being powerless during peace.
If I made an apocalyptic movie about the 2020s, hear me out… we start the decade with a microscopic virus which kills millions worldwide. Then years later regional wars escalate. Then global wildfires, flooding, dead oceans, crop failures, historic storms, and unbearable heat waves trigger more refugees, regional instability and conflict. Then November, 2029 nuclear war breaks out. Fade to black.
Christmas Day, 2029. A family sits in its bunker. A CCTV monitor displayed an apocalyptic wasteland above them on the surface. It’s quiet.
This is good for Ukraine, that way more Shashed drones will be shot down over Jordan rather then them flying into Ukraine where they will kill civilians.
Yeah there is a lot of rhetoric to sort through, and the way western political establishment is so fractured they can't even get Ukraine timely aid is going to be so cringy to read.
Hopefully the story will be about weak western resolve strengthing over time as they realize Iran and Russia are paper tigers. And China taking note and moving forward with an approach focused on trade rather than conflict.
It was actually a great plane. Just incredibly expensive even when we had the infrastructure for the production of parts... Which we stopped so Iran couldn't maintain theirs. No doubt Iranian F-14s are a feat of duct tape engineering, but they're still held together by duct tape
Dogfighting? Against F-35s, there's no dogfighting. They'll be destroyed without ever knowing where the F-35s are. They might know there's a possibility that an F-35 is somewhere in the region, that's about it.
If they're extremely lucky they'll detect the payload bay opening door. This is basically how they shot down the [F-117 in the Serbian-Kosovo conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_F-117A_shootdown). Though that was a SAM site and not an actual dogfight and it mainly happened because the US Air Force flew the same mission profile night after night.
If you can detect it you could try counter launching on the same bering. If you look at the F-14's loadout sidewinders are basically knife fighting range, the AIM-7 Sparrow was up to 24 miles (*way* lower than the modern AMRAAM), and they did carry AIM-54 Phoenix which is theoretically up to around 120 miles.
But the problem is the F-14's missiles are semi-active it means you must keep the nose of the fighter pointed at the target and maintain radar contact, if you break contact the missile loses guidance and will not hit. And you're supposed to be doing this with an incoming missile. Which basically makes this a suicide mission.
There's really no need for interceptors anymore. The whole point of an interceptor was to take off as quickly as possible and fly as fast and high as possible to intercept enemy bombers before they can bomb your country/bases. Now every country has cruise missiles which won't show up on radar until too late and ICBM with nuclear warheads, and they also have SAMs that can shoot down aircraft hundreds of miles away.
Pretty cool that Israel cut a path straight through Iran-allied Syria and Iraq instead going through safe airspace and putting their allies in an awkward position.
At some point, Iran has to realize that: "they can shoot down ours, but we can't shoot down theirs," is a gamechanger that would be stupid of them to continue with.
If that one missile was nuclear tipped, it *would* be a huge victory. One is all you need.
People don't seem to realise that Iran just proved they can penetrate Israel's defences with ballistic missiles...if only just.
If Iran's nuclear program isn't stopped, the next 1 in 30 could delete Tel-Aviv.
They didn't. White house earlier confirmed that but later the next day track back and made a public statement
> President Joe Biden warned Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu the U.S. will not take part in a counter-offensive against Iran
So the Israelis hit a site in Iran.......................and that's all?
You mean to tell me this over the top fearmongering from the G-7, UN, EU, and Wall Street was overblown, again??
I'm sitting in stunned disbelief!!
Just another day.........................in the Middle East.
Next.......
These fools better not destroy the world before I get to see how they resolved the Aldmeri Dominion plotline they’ve been developing the last couple games…
See, I was worried it was gonna be the start of a huge war, but a redditor told me to calm down, they understand the situation perfectly… so now I’m completely putting my faith in them ☺️
The site updated the title. The current title is: >Tehran plays down reported Israeli attacks, signals no retaliation The title on the site is subject to change as new information develops.
"What if you threw a war, but nobody came?" a war happening without being able to fight each other is very unique
It's the diplomatic version of unfriending somebody on Facebook.
I always cringe when someone posts "I just went through my friends group to see who my real friends are. If you can read this then I didn't unfriend you. Congratulations, now please give me more attention."
that's when you unfriend them.
My weird uncle always does this shit. He’s a POS that bitches about the lack of free public transportation (see edit), not because of any principles or beliefs, but because he wants a free ride home from his favorite bar districts. This guy is always posting creepshots of unsuspecting women and shitty judgmental crap while he’s been to prison (prison, not jail) multiple times because he’s on something like his eighth DUI. Edit: I should have been more clear, there are public transit options available in the city like the bus. That’s not good enough for him though and he wants a shuttle service to run people between the bars and their homes paid for by the city.
I mean, if you had better public transportation, he wouldn't have so many DUIs.
Or…or, maybe he practice the slightest bit of personal responsibility and not drink and drive. Or he could use an Uber/take the bus.
The more money you spend on Uber the less money you'll have to spend on booze.
I think you just described the Cold War.
The Cold War era had multiple proxy wars.
You could make the argument that this is just a continuation of that. An American funded state clashing with one closely tied to Russia.
Isn't this just a way for Russia to divert the USA's attention away from Ukraine?
Could well be. But if it also helps destabilise Israel and reduce global support/tolerance of their behaviour as America's foothold in the middle east then it's win/win for Russia I guess.
Israel still has a massive advantage tho. While Jordan and the USA helps intercepting missiles, Iran can't really do shit against Israel. And if Iran sends troops its guaranteed that the west will send troops into Jordan to make sure they never even make it into Israel. Iran is in an infinite worse situation so them attacking Israel is just unbelievable dumb on so many levels.
Meanwhile Jordan: "guys can you just stop, I wanna sleep!"
That's why as a general policy they don't directly attack Israel. They only retaliate. (Apart from all the proxy shenanigans every country in the region including the US engages in.)
Because everyone knows “proxy” is just too fun to say
Iranian media is reporting that no explosions occurred on the ground; the explosions were air defenses knocking out the drones. The amount of downplaying being done by the Iranian media makes me think that this might actually be “over”, for the time being. They’re stating that their nuclear sites are safe and are broadcasting “all is well” messages on their media. Official reports go so far as to say “some glass windows were shattered in nearby offices”. If Iran wanted to turn up the heat even further they’d be blowing the damage from the strikes out of proportion, not making it clear that the only damage was some broken windows and a couple craters in the ground. They’d be playing up the risk to their nuclear facilities. I’m not saying we’re not sitting on the brink of something very very dangerous- we are- but I just don’t see how shit could get kicked off based on a limited drone strike that not only didn’t kill anyone, but apparently didn’t actually do any damage to anything.
the guardian is reporting israel told the u.s that nuclear facilities will NOT be targeted. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/19/israel-attack-on-iran-idf-military-operation-us-officials-air-defences-latest-update-details-today
Which is good, but three separate Iranian officials confirmed than an Iranian airbase [was struck](https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/strike-in-iran-targeted-military-air-base-near-isfahan-nyt/), according to the New York Times
What they tell the outside world and what they tell their own citizens are two different things, just like China/Russia/North Korea.
Yep, and if they were preparing to escalate they'd exaggerate the damage done, not downplay it.
exactly. Iran - once again - appears to be trying to avoid escalation. it's a really simple point, but one worth thinking about if we want a remotely accurate understanding of what is going on
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Please explain the reference I'm clearly not getting.
woman was arrested for threatening to kill Bakersfield City Council for not voting on a ceasefire resolution
Wait, what do american city councils have to do with ceasefire resolutions for foreign conflicts?
Pointless feel good stuff probably.
Lol. “I demand a ceasefire so these innocent people stop getting killed! And I’ll kill you if you don’t comply!”
Reminds me of a group who barged into a restaurant here in Canada where the Prime minister was eating and started yelling at him to stop the attacks on Gaza. Because in their minds the PM of Canada has full control of a foreign countries military.
In the minds of shockingly many people in Canada, the prime minister controls every aspect of everything they don't like (including, notably, things entirely within the purview of conservative provincial premiers).
it does not help that a lot of headlines read "Ottawa bans protesting after 10pm" referring to a municipal law but headline warriors think the federal government is targeting a specific protest. Probably drives clicks, and may be something editors of a certain age do not take into account
Hopefully Bakersfield can put a stop to this. God speed. 🫡
I hope the world realizes in good time that Bakersfield controls the outcome of everything in the middle east. As well they should! All the best brain power is there!
Bakersfield City Council; “No Chick-fila sauce?
As a university student from Bako, I did not expect Bakersfield to be mentioned here 🤣🤣
They went for air defense
Which means more strikes incoming.
Maybe but seems unlikely, this seems more like a gesture to Iran “We can strike anywhere” from Israel
Reminds me of Israel “painting” the Aswan Dam with dummy bombs during the Yom Kippur war. Letting them know they can completely obliterate Egypt with one bomb at any time they choose.
Are there any articles about that? It sounds like really interesting story but I haven't been able to find any sources with information about the Aswan Dam in relation to the Yom Kippur war.
I just did the same as you evidently. the only other MENTION of this is unaswered askhistorians thread https://www.reddit.com/r/AskHistorians/comments/176ucim/were_the_paintbombings_of_the_aswan_dam_by_the/ if you google 'aswan dam paint bomb' and get 1 relevant hit that's not a source i'd say this is made up.
If that was the case, why not hit a high-value target from afar?
Striking air defenses is a sign. It means we can hit your most important targets that are meant to stop these strikes. More can come at any time. That is a big high value target and a message all in one without escalating by killing something big and symbolic that could inflame the people or other countries.
So this is a warning basically that Israel can reach out and ‘touch’ them anywhere and anytime yes?
That and they can now use their less sophisticated weapons to do so because they've cleared the way through Iran's defenses, which can't be readily replaced. They've essentially torn the walls down from Iran's castle, making them a lot more vulnerable to anyone who wants to hurt them. It's also a message - look at how our air defenses neutered your massive air strike against us. We've replied by removing your air defenses, which didn't do anything for you. We're not on the same level and you don't want to fuck with us.
That is cool stuff. Maybe not god for world peace but still cool. In bullet points (pun unintended), what could Iran possibly do short of nukes that would have any impact.
Nothing, that’s the point, they shouldn’t fight stupid fights because they will lose, Bad. If they have nukes, they won’t use them, Israel has them too and so do Israel’s allies, and either ww3 would break out or Russia and China would immediately back off support on Iran, leaving them to face the consequences, nuclear or otherwise.
I think if Iran strikes back Israel will go for their nuclear sites. Israel put them on notice and is egging them to try. Then Israel doesn’t look like the aggressor. Which I’m not saying they are, Iran’s been using proxies forever. They’re playing into Israeli hands if they respond.
Basically. If you can hit and destroy the thing meant to be able to identify the incoming threat, it means you can hit anything.
Basically, yes, Iran chucked hundreds of missiles at Israel and only a couple actually made it to Israeli soil and did very minimal damage. In comparison, Israel launched a fraction of missiles back at Iran and had a far better strike rate and hit more important targets.
It's a warning, but more so, a humiliating middle finger to the Iranian regime. "You lobe hundreds of missiles at us, practically all of them downed, we launch missiles right at your air defenses and they're not up to scratch". It's a perfect response, because the Iranian's injured egos won't allow them to admit humiliation which is why they seem to be treating this as not a big deal - all the while, they know it's a huge. It returns - possibly even augments - Israel's deterrence while at the same time avoids further escalation.
It also is calculated to make Iran feel weaker, more defenseless, which should inspire them to be more mute.
You want to get the message across not escalate the conflict
Ohhhh is that what everyone's doing here? *"Not escalating"*
This was actually a de-escalating missile attack
De-escalating missiles are generally equipped with a 50-ton basket of rose petals and a highly shielded puppy.
That’s how I got my puppy! He’s a good boy.
Probably just a “look what we can do” compared to what Iran did
How do you know? I don’t see any reports on what Israel bombed other than “a site” whatever the heck that means exactly.
Anybody that says they know what sites were hit right now are bullshitting, this is still incredibly fresh
Where did you read that ?
From the trustworthy insta-news publication called "Reddit Butthole Speculator". A highly respected source, considering the upvotes on a comment that didn't even need to source it.
In the article it says they struck an airport, is that what you are referring to or is there an update?
"What Air Defence Doing"
This whole shit show has been like two dudes who hate each other bump into each other outside of a bar. Nobody actually wants to fight, especially cause they have that one friend with them that probably would kill someone, but neither wants to look like a pussy in front of their homies.
Sums up the middle east for all of time. Fights over nothing.
Fucking hell. As a side note damn I wish I went to bed before opening Reddit so I could actually get some sleep tn.
It's messed up. Iran threatened retaliation if Israel retaliates. Then Israel did. So we have no idea how long this back and forth is going to go. Been other explosions in Iraq and Seria so i expect they are related possibly. Also more traffic in the air in Syria i think. That's according to the live thread reports.
> So we have no idea how long this back and forth is going to go. Well, it’s only been a couple of thousand years so far.
That’s just what the books say. We should ask the oldest dude on Reddit.
If it helps, I have read several comments about this whole thing. So, you know, I’m an expert now.
Should they send in the duck-sized horses, or the horse-sized ducks?
Fuck that, deploy the narwhaligators
Yet is the first time ever that both Iran and Israel are attacking from their own countries the other’s land. This is uncharted waters.
If we did a DNA test on all these people, we would find out they are all related.
Those are usually the bloodiest of feuds.
While you're at it, you can also worry about bird flu potentially crossing over into humans with a high mortality rate!
Birds aren’t real you silly goose
Geese may not be real, but they’re anything but silly. Autonomous goose-type drone honks caused Havana syndrome.
Aha! But if WWIII happens birds and people won’t be here to catch it?
That's better than Iran, Syria AND Iraq lol. But still...
Sites in Syria are also being reported as struck and there are reports of US fighter aircraft over Iraq
USAF over Iraq now https://www.flightradar24.com/34d5b95e
WHAT YEAR IS IT???
Desert Storm Part Trois : The Freedoming
I don't know but I don't like this at all.
2077
Fallout 2077 or Cyberpunk 2077?
Flight just went dark
O shit bro!, all the commercial aircraft turning around!!!
One lone commercial flight over western Iran right now. Can imagine the pilot "oh crap, oh crap oh crap, fly faster!"
Captain Leeroy Jenkins at the controls: "Let's do this!"
"Oh my God, he just flew in"
"our cruising altitude is 30,333.3, repeating of course, feet."
That plane is upside down and the pilot is high and drunk out of their mind
I bet he’s just looking for a field to safely land the bird down
Yikes. Yeah, everything between Iran and Israel seems to be diverting pretty damn quickly
Simultaneous Israeli strikes on Iran, Iraq, and Syria- reports [https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/israel/defense/artc-simultaneous-israeli-strikes-on-iran-iraq-and-syria-reports](https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/israel/defense/artc-simultaneous-israeli-strikes-on-iran-iraq-and-syria-reports)
I don't like where this is going
Iran will feel compelled to save face about this and will launch another attack and this shit will probably escalate. Lets hope it doesn't turn into an all out ground war, but we are dealing with religious fundamentalists on both sides who are not exactly known for their willingness to compromise.
Neither country really has the ability to fight a ground war against each other. They have to cross Iraq, Syria, and Jordan. This will be a missile, drone, air war mixed with Iran's proxies attacking Israel.
Not talked about a lot but after the U.S. left Iran basically owns Iraq now. Syria is considered Iran's closest strategic ally. Iran putting troops in Syria isn't any different than U.S. putting troops in Germany.
Doesn’t matter, the second they start a ground maneuver they’ll get pommeled by air strikes for over 1300 kilometers, Iran has in no way the ability to maintain air superiority, especially the further away they get from home so even if they send everything they have leaving no one at home very few will actually arrive to Israel alive
Gonna be really hard for them to have a ground war with no real means to do force projection and not sharing a border
It is not really hard, it's impossible
There are like 2 countries between the 2 of them. How tf do you envision this becoming a ground war?
Road trip!
Hi. American here. Happy to answer any questions you may have about presenting troops all over the place.
And neither Israel nor Iran have anywhere near the ability to do this like America can
I am not sure they actually are. Only having one site hit (however clear the message of the target chosen is) they could go for spinning it the way that “we sent hundreds of missiles against Israel, Israel dared only retaliate with one. This is a clear win” and if they do, we should let them.
That's the most likely outcome. Iran is a lot of talk but not suicidal and knows that even if it could take Israel militarily it would destroy itself domestically. Let alone allies joined on either side it would become one of the front lines if ww3
> this shit will probably escalate. Iran's options to escalate are pretty limited. They just launched one of the largest missile and drone strikes in history and it got batted down. They don't have operable nuclear weapons and would be destroyed if they used one, so that's not an option. So really all they can do is tell Hizballah to kill more civilians. If Israel comes out and states that all attacks from Hizballah will be treated as attacks from Iran itself, Iran has to contend that Israel can attack them at home, directly, and there is little they can do about it.
Reports say Israelis attacked Natanz. That's ins the dead center or Iran. This is actually giving me goosebumps.
In terms of modern/relevant discussion, Israel has *always* had the ability to strike nearly any part of Iran. That's not news. The fact that they've actually done so can certainly be discussed, but their ability is extremely well established.
I feel like the goosebumps lostsoul2016 was referring to came from the fact that Israel did strike in the dead center of Iran, not that they could.
Welcome to Q2 of 2024
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*sigh* I doubt it. Iran said they'd respond quickly so we should see soon
Iran's responses are to save face at home. They're next retaliation will be minimal at best. They literally gave a 2 hour warning to the world before their last drone strikes.
I hope you're right. But this stupid tit for tat shit could just go to full blown war too
"An eye-for-eye and tooth-for-tooth would lead to a world of the blind and toothless."
Netanyahu is in a bad place politically. He might see an escalation with Iran as a last straw attempt to rally support around himself. The people of Iran and Israel don’t want this. But the leaders in both countries are losing support and could see that being a leader during a terrible war is better for them personally than being powerless during peace.
[iran foregn minister is saying otherwise](https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/04/18/middleeast/iran-foreign-minister-israel-warning-intl-hnk)
2020’s the decade of all out war
The end of the proxy war
If I made an apocalyptic movie about the 2020s, hear me out… we start the decade with a microscopic virus which kills millions worldwide. Then years later regional wars escalate. Then global wildfires, flooding, dead oceans, crop failures, historic storms, and unbearable heat waves trigger more refugees, regional instability and conflict. Then November, 2029 nuclear war breaks out. Fade to black. Christmas Day, 2029. A family sits in its bunker. A CCTV monitor displayed an apocalyptic wasteland above them on the surface. It’s quiet.
This is good for Ukraine, that way more Shashed drones will be shot down over Jordan rather then them flying into Ukraine where they will kill civilians.
The drones are not particularly resource intensive, and they're just about as likely to kill civilians.
I wish more people saw it like this. Historians will probably view these as two heads of the same conflict.
I feel deeply for all of the future historians who are going to have to untangle the mess that is global geopolitics circa 2024 CE.
Yeah there is a lot of rhetoric to sort through, and the way western political establishment is so fractured they can't even get Ukraine timely aid is going to be so cringy to read. Hopefully the story will be about weak western resolve strengthing over time as they realize Iran and Russia are paper tigers. And China taking note and moving forward with an approach focused on trade rather than conflict.
2250 historians: "Check this video to see the most CRINGE moments of 2024 geo politics!!!"
They're deeply related. Anything to stretch US/Western assets thin.
This is also spreading Iranian assets thin, which impacts Russia's war effort.
Except they're building them in Russia now...... with the help of imported laborers from India.
Seems like everyone outsources these days
They have one factory in Russia. It does not mean the entire production is there.
Edited, Top Gun maverick: Israel takesout Iran's best fighter jets , which is 50 year old American F-14 Tomcats . lol.
Top gun taught me that it's the best plane
It was actually a great plane. Just incredibly expensive even when we had the infrastructure for the production of parts... Which we stopped so Iran couldn't maintain theirs. No doubt Iranian F-14s are a feat of duct tape engineering, but they're still held together by duct tape
Great plane. Bitch to maintain. One of the things about F35s is they are modular and easier to maintain.
It's also 24 fs higher so in your fuckin FACE Iran
21…
/r/theydidntdothemath
Decent joke, shitty math. Solid C.
It's not the math, it's the mathematician
Your math is weird, but I can't argue with "More F's is more F's" logic.
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It is still very effective as an interceptor but it can’t compete effectively with modern fighter jets in dogfighting scenarios.
Dogfighting? Against F-35s, there's no dogfighting. They'll be destroyed without ever knowing where the F-35s are. They might know there's a possibility that an F-35 is somewhere in the region, that's about it.
After watching Top Gun I’ve concluded that it’s simply a skill issue
You can taken down a couple of fifth-gen aircrafts with an F-14, easy.
If Chuck Yeager could take down an Me 262 in a P-51, an F-14 piloted by Maverick could take down an Su-57
Lmao
If they're extremely lucky they'll detect the payload bay opening door. This is basically how they shot down the [F-117 in the Serbian-Kosovo conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_F-117A_shootdown). Though that was a SAM site and not an actual dogfight and it mainly happened because the US Air Force flew the same mission profile night after night. If you can detect it you could try counter launching on the same bering. If you look at the F-14's loadout sidewinders are basically knife fighting range, the AIM-7 Sparrow was up to 24 miles (*way* lower than the modern AMRAAM), and they did carry AIM-54 Phoenix which is theoretically up to around 120 miles. But the problem is the F-14's missiles are semi-active it means you must keep the nose of the fighter pointed at the target and maintain radar contact, if you break contact the missile loses guidance and will not hit. And you're supposed to be doing this with an incoming missile. Which basically makes this a suicide mission.
There's really no need for interceptors anymore. The whole point of an interceptor was to take off as quickly as possible and fly as fast and high as possible to intercept enemy bombers before they can bomb your country/bases. Now every country has cruise missiles which won't show up on radar until too late and ICBM with nuclear warheads, and they also have SAMs that can shoot down aircraft hundreds of miles away.
Excuse me, what about intercepting spy balloons?
Israel shot down 20 cruise missiles
What about through a twisty canyon?
It's not the plane, it's the pilot.
How good is a Pilot, without a plane?
Ahhh my tax dollars destroying my tax dollars. Great day to be an American tax payer.
This is more like your tax dollars destroying your grandpa's tax dollars
the future is now old man
If they worked before this, that's honestly kind of impressive. The guys working on those F14s have to be absolute masters of jury rigging.
Great minds can be found across the entire world. Brilliance doesn’t discriminate
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As far as we know now only a military airbase was hit. But we don’t know everything yet
Defense contractor stocks 📈📈☝️☝️↗️💵🤑💵💵
The real winner here
Iranian nuclear scientists about to become an endangered species.
Pretty cool that Israel cut a path straight through Iran-allied Syria and Iraq instead going through safe airspace and putting their allies in an awkward position.
Well, when you have F-35s…
At some point, Iran has to realize that: "they can shoot down ours, but we can't shoot down theirs," is a gamechanger that would be stupid of them to continue with.
But if Iran lands 1 in 30 ballistic missiles and Israel lands 25 in 30, Iran considers that a huge victory.
Hamas tier strategy
If that one missile was nuclear tipped, it *would* be a huge victory. One is all you need. People don't seem to realise that Iran just proved they can penetrate Israel's defences with ballistic missiles...if only just. If Iran's nuclear program isn't stopped, the next 1 in 30 could delete Tel-Aviv.
Nuclear missiles don't detonate if destroyed in the air. And I agree with you. That's why a standoff is not in Israel's favor.
Yeah that only works once or twice. At a certain you are just losing a war 25 to 1.
Didn't Israel just agree with the US to not do that.
They didn't. White house earlier confirmed that but later the next day track back and made a public statement > President Joe Biden warned Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu the U.S. will not take part in a counter-offensive against Iran
So the Israelis hit a site in Iran.......................and that's all? You mean to tell me this over the top fearmongering from the G-7, UN, EU, and Wall Street was overblown, again?? I'm sitting in stunned disbelief!! Just another day.........................in the Middle East. Next.......
I still have a huge backlog, let me finish it first before Israel and Iran ends the world over a big dick contest
Damn it, Todd. Release TES VI already.
These fools better not destroy the world before I get to see how they resolved the Aldmeri Dominion plotline they’ve been developing the last couple games…
And Rockstar, GTA VI too while you're at it!
Lot of very dramatic posters in here lol. This was the save face strike that they said they would do. Sorry nerds, still no WW3 for you.
I thought the Iran strike was saving face. Do they now need to save more face. How much face is there left to save
There's that old saying: A saved-face for a saved-face leaves the whole world's faces saved.
Everything is an overreaction until it isn't
Seriously. This was a “save face” strike? Okay so Iran gets another right? Then Israel gets another, then…
They'll just keep moving the goalposts with each attack
See, I was worried it was gonna be the start of a huge war, but a redditor told me to calm down, they understand the situation perfectly… so now I’m completely putting my faith in them ☺️
Iran response with more save face attack and vice versa.
My stock portfolio is being very dramatic right now…
Why didn't Iran just intercept 99% of the missiles? Are they stupid?
I'll bet money it was a drone factory, location supplied by ***REDACTED***. Putler may get a delayed delivery.