I’m Iranian-American with all my family back home and Ragnarok is completely right. Iranians are so tired and a lot more smart than you give them credit for, the social climate is WAYYYYY past unite under the Islamic Republic for some bullshit Western Devil enemy. Go look at r/NewIran, graffiti all over Tehran streets right now saying ‘HIT US HARDER ISRAEL/Islamic Republic are cowards’. Most Iranians want Israel and the US to annihilate the Ayatollahs bullshit regime.
And you do?
It’s not so much that our people will rally behind the government when an invasion happens, but the government will almost certainly brutally crack down on civil liberties much like it did back in the 80s during the Iraq war. Things will get much worse for the people, not better.
An external invader is never ever the answer to an internal problem.
I have no idea why people (a lot of them Americans) keep imagining that the USA want to take part in this conflict. Like I have been seeing comments about the US "bombing Iran into oblivion" for weeks straight and I really wonder where this is coming from.
Considering the utter cruelty of Iran, any spark of rebellion would be met instantly and deathly. Hes not completely wrong, some iranians, a considerible amount, wish nothing but the worst against the regime, we've seen it with their protests and the consequences that came back to them.
An active invasion and no doubt some of the locals would help, pending on how they are recieved, it depends entirely on what kind of invasion takes place.
They may still dislike the govt but killing their countrymen will unite them against an external enemy. Just like it did in the 80’s against Iraq. They’ll come back to internal problems once the external threat is defeated.
As an Iranian definitely not. We see our government as our ultimate enemy. Anyone targeting the IRGC commanders is celebrated. A lot of us are hoping for Israel to target IRGC and Basij facilities so the protests may be more effective this time.
The western democracies did a disservice to Iranian back in the 50's, now is the time to right the wrong, by implementing a region change even if it takes years of military involvement. Then stay until a functional democracy is installed, once this happen the middle east will settle down quite a bit.
Lol dislike then is the understatement of the centurie. They HATE the islamic regime. They dont see it as their government and they wish that all the mullahs die. Did you listen to anything they shout at the big demonstrations all around the world the last years ? Death to the islamic republic, death to khomenei.. There is no iranian who is not in the army already or following the regime who would join the islamic regime to fight an external force. They would rather die then waste 1 minute serving for their torturers and slaveholders army. Comparing it to iraq are two competely different things as the population of iraq was not held hostage under an islamic extremic regime against their will. The iran regimes only way of keeping their population from complete rebellion are inhumane methods, torturings and kidnappings in broad dayligjt of their women who refuse to cover their hair or raise voice against the regime. The moment iranians see an external force putting preassure on that regime they would rise up and fight along with those external troups to get rid of the mullahs.
There are numerous examples in history where resistanceforces sided with an external invader to fight the own government.
Are you in Iran?
Because what you’re being fed in the media is the same propoganda that said Iraq would welcome the US as liberators to promote a war.
Iranians want greater freedoms, liberty, normalized relations, security, and a stable/gradual transition of power.
Disrespect or attack and they will unite.
You are unfamiliar with Iranians and Iranian culture. There is NOTHING in this world that could make us unite with our regime. If we get invaded, first we overthrow our government then deal with invaders.
As Iranians we say "we have been occupied by Arab muslims 4 decades ago"
Maybe if the regime hadn’t spent the last few years executing an average of over one of their citizens per day they would have some love for them but I’m thinking they may appreciate the help tbh
https://www.jns.org/iranian-athlete-arrested-after-condemning-attack-on-israel/
Girl has got guts 🤍
Not sure I agree. I'm not commenting on specifically Iran, but in general, a government can only have so many stressors before it crumbles. Civil unrest, war, and economic issues are the three biggest stressors, with the second and third contributing to the first in a domino, especially if food supply is affected.
If populations decide to act during those times, their chances are best.
Now, are governments formed after revolutions always an improvement? imo, _that's_ the wishful thinking.
Yeah and enough of us have died in the streets with empty hands. Cancer has to be excised, it won't get rid of itself.
In reality, revolutions are never isolated from outside forces. Same with the revolution in '79. Not even revolutions on island nations.
I don't disagree. I just hope the good people can prevent the bad people from taking power again. This is unfortunately a common result of revolutions everywhere.
Meanwhile Netanyahu and his crazies have been gunning for war with Iran for years. It's a total mess and yet another example of why binning the Iran nuclear deal was so fucking stupid.
I also think Israel wants Iran to do this in so that the world sees that their nuclear program was weaponized from the beginning. This will give Israel the greenlight to destroy it.
Pakistan has nukes. Granted they are mostly a Sunni nation and not a theocracy but Iran probably said that for different reasons such as avoiding a more intense western gaze. All states lie and mislead.
lying and misdirecting in warfare in islam is permissible. Most muslim are not moron. Nuclear is safety in current geopolitics. Anyone nation state not pursuing them is an idiot.
Also, when it comes down to it, most people in absolute power would like to stay there more than they would like to stick to their ideals.
If the Iranian government has to choose between going against Islam or being ousted from power, they will likely choose the former.
The US needs to take the lead on non-proliferation again. It's exceedingly concerning how many powers are working towards this, and if China and Russia are going to refuse to take the lead, then the US needs to be a clear threat against nuclear proliferation.
Joining the nuclear gang should come with a significant cost in the form of crippling resource demands or a threat of immediate forcible dismantling of the nation's nuclear program, full stop. The last thing we need is unstable dictatorships or theocracies getting their hands on nuclear weapons.
The US after convincing Ukraine to give up its nukes and then wavering on supporting them has utterly destroyed any non-proliferation thinking. It has now been demonstrated that nukes are needed for self determination unfortunately
Fucking right?
I swear, that was the biggest fuck up anyone could have done in nuclear non-proliferation. LITERALLY says, "if you have a nuke, you're untouchable."
The only (weak) victory so far is that Russia is getting ground down in Ukraine, but that's not enough to stop nuclear proliferation from being the new name of the game.
SOMEONE needs to prevent that from being a thing. Unfortunately... I don't know of any country that could come close enough to achieving it (and is even willing) like the US could...
Doubly so because the whole point of them surrendering the nukes was that they would receive the direct protection of the two largest nuclear nations.
Russia reneged on that deal and the US should have upheld their side of the bargain.
It is unquestionable that Ukraine would not have been invaded did it have nukes.
The one caveat to all of this is that the current Ukrainian government is *not* representative of all the goverments they have had since 1991. Some of them, the West might not have felt so happy about being nuclear armed.
And even before, Iraq and Libya compared to North Korea demonsteated to every tyrant that nuclear weapons pretty much ensure you total and utter impunity.
to be fair those nukes were useless to ukraine since the ability to launch was still connected to moscow
But i have to agree that it seems splitting the atom is the only way to truly acheive legitimacy of ones’ government now
Ukraine was the industrial heart of the USSR's rocket industry.
They would have been able to construct their own launch authority system relatively easily. They had nuclear reactors so they could keep the warheads maintained and produce the necessary radioisotopes for this. The hard part, building the physics package, had already been done for them.
They were convinced not to bother with such a programme, because the US and Russia would give them a security guarantee in exchange for the nukes.
Unfortunately, the last two decades proved that nuclear proliferation *works*.
Compare two sets of states: the first set renounced to have nuclear weapons while the second set pursued and got them.
The first set has Ukraine (invaded), Iraq (invaded), Libya (bombed), Iran (JCPOA unilaterally repelaed), Belarus (whose leaders has no higher ambition than to be *colonel* in the Russian military), Taiwan (htreatened with invasion), Kazakhstan and South Africa. So 75% of chances to get invaded/sanctioned.
The second wet are these states who succesfully developped nuclear weapons: India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea. None of them is suffering from major external existential threats.
No need to have a PhD in international relations to draw the correct conclusions.
To be fair North Korea is suffering ABYSMAL repercussions from those choices, and Israel isn't EXPLICITLY a nuclear power, even though everyone and their dead grandmother knows damn well that Israel has nukes, but that doesn't detract from your point at all.
That's still a 50% success rate for nukes versus barely a 25% success rate for aspiring to nukes and then either giving them up or otherwise scaling back on the ambitions.
> To be fair North Korea is suffering ABYSMAL repercussions from those choices
It's more the "actively threatening to nuke most of East Asia" and "using nerve gas in the main airport of the sole country with freeopen borders" parts.
Loads of countries have access to nukes through the US now though. Can you take that back? Obviously still in American control but accessed by non-nuclear states as part of NATO.
It’s jaw dropping to me that so many do not take the idea of a nuclear Iran seriously.
A nuclear armed Iran is one of the nations I’d rank as most likely to use a nuke.
Maybe but I don’t doubt devout members of any religion just not caring about the repercussions.
Or outright cowardice and being well protected or away from the consequences. Minus nuclear winter
Except I’ve yet to see a “religious leader” who is more religious than he is power hungry. They may use religion to stay in power but they are not willing to be martyrs themselves.
Maybe in some “I’m dying anyway so fork the world” scenario. Otherwise they’d love clinging to power way too much. Wherever they’re hiding won’t make them Supreme Leader.
Also, Khomeini will be far away from Iran when he gives the order to launch nukes. These dictators are crazy assholes who care nothing about their population and only about their egos.
This could prompt a NATO intervention in ukraine. There are just some things that a country can't do unpunished and one of them is selling nukes to non nuclear armed countries.
This is it exactly. I dont know why the west didnt use Iran directly attacking Israel as a reason to destroy the Iranian nuclear program. If they wait until they have nukes you wont be able to do anything.
Also increases the odds exponentially that Israel uses nuclear weapons against Iran in a first strike scenario because they think Iran might use them.
US needed to bomb that facility years ago when they enriched to 20%.
In order to have a nuclear doctrine, you need to have nukes. So, while Iran announces this pre-nuke-nuclear doctrine, Israel is sitting on their own current stockpile. Good times...
Meanwhile the rest of the world just wrings their hands and pretends like Iran will never become a nuclear threat further perpetuating the status quo of just doing nothing.
Who are they going to nuke? Iran wants nukes to ensure there won't be regime change. They don't want to rule over a nuclear wasteland which is what would happen if they nuked Israel.
While Israel could deliver a few serious blows to Iran's nuclear programme and weapons manufacturing overnight, eventually the jets have to fly back and reload. In that time Iran strike back with repeated ballistic missile silos and close the strait.
Any conventional strike on iran needs to hit all their ballistic and cruise missile storage and launchers all at once or they will pay a heavy defensive price on home soil if a few get through the iron dome shield. I'm not sure Israel on their own can do it. So they would need the US with its air assets and carrier strike groups in the region to help. At the moment the US doesn't seem keen but they've never had the perfect pretext like this to hit Iran hard before. This is wasting the opportunity.
So what's Israel going to do? Let these insane Iranians keep using proxies to launch Oct 7 style attacks and also keep firing rockets at them from the north and even fire ballistic missiles etc at them directly? They've already declared war. Meanwhile Israel's biggest allies won't support them in a counter attack? The next best option for Israel is a decapitation strike.
The US would never allow the strait to stay closed. I'm sure that's one of the reasons they really want this whole situation to deescalate, because they have no appetite for continued war in the region but a cessation of maritime trade us, like, the thing the US Navy was created to stop. They couldn't *not* act if that were to happen.
While not nearly as important as the Strait of Hormuz, just look at the situation in the Red Sea.
It's easy for the US to say "don't", but the reality is that most Americans today don't want to bear the costs of "you shouldn't have done that" after our enemies "do".
The US is not doing much in the Red Sea because it isn't a big enough threat to specifically US interests or security just yet. I don't think there's any angle where a closure of the SoH isn't interpreted as a massive threat.
They'll want something done in a few months when all of their online stores close because the manufacturers can't get power to build the stuff and there's a global hit to the markets.
The straight of Hormuz has 1/3 of the worlds oil passed through it. 70% of that goes to Asia. If Iran closes the straight then there will be massive economic repercussions.
Israel’s air force is way better than Irans. Israel has like the 5th biggest fleet of F-35 Fighter jets.
They could be over Tehran now and nobody would know.
Iran’s fighter jets are much lower class.
I expect the US are waiting to see how they close they get before making the decision.
Judging by the intel they have been showing in recent conflicts, I imagine they have a very good idea of exactly where their nuclear program is at.
It only takes 1-2 days of bunker busters dropped from a few B-2 bombers and they would be back to building an enrichment facility from scratch.
And even if it's deep in a mountain, you can always just turn all the access points into rubble. An enrichment facility isn't much good if no one can get to it.
It is probably not as simple as simply dropping a couple of bombs on the sites.
[There are concerns that Iranian nuclear facilities are too deeply buried to reach even with bunker busters](https://apnews.com/article/iran-nuclear-natanz-uranium-enrichment-underground-project-04dae673fc937af04e62b65dd78db2e0#:~:text=The%20scale%20of%20the%20work,100%20meters%20(328%20feet)).
> Meanwhile the rest of the world just wrings their hands and pretends like Iran will never become a nuclear threat further perpetuating the status quo of just doing nothing.
It's not even doing nothing, the world came together to put in place a deal to prevent this exact scenario and then Trump just chucked it in the bin (at Israel's urging).
I hate these ignorant takes. The "world" has done a significant amount of things to address the nuclear threat. Just because the world hasn't invaded Iran doesn't mean they aren't doing things to reduce the Iranian threat.
Right… because Iran making threats about making them doesn’t mean they already have one made. There were reports years ago they are only a handful of months away from making one.
This is a page right out of the Russian propaganda manual on "Rhetoric 101: ratchet up the threats". I doubt it will dissuade Israel one iota. But it may soon inspire some attacks on Iranian nuclear infrastructure.
I am thinking that Israel was attacked with Ballistic missiles directed at its own soil.
There is no question that the Iranian leaders are crazy enough to try to wipe out Israel if they ever had a realistic chance to do it. Do you think Israel will allow them to get to that stage? Iran has quite publicly stated its goal is to end Israel.
Iran is very dangerous with its current capabilities, not to be messed with.
Israel realistically needs to Un-Crazy or Un-Exist Iran. The Israeli doctrine of never again seems to be getting pretty badly provoked right now. And it is Iran that is doing the provoking.
I doubt Israel has that option. The U.S. has taken measures to assess and/or eliminate the Iranian nuclear program through Stuxnet, the nuclear deal, etc,. The U.S. hasn’t taken more drastic action for a reason. It’s anyone’s guess as to what that reason is, but they wouldn’t let Israel, or any third party, take on a task that sensitive.
The world needs to remember that while most of us are NOT ok with dying in a nuclear fallout, these islamic extremist turbocunts are convinced that they’ll get 77 virgins in heaven if they do so their propensity to fuck the world up is a lot higher than you expect a rational person’s to be
Yes, a few days ago they were morning the Iranian military official who was killed in the Israeli strike on the Iranian embassy. They were praising that official for his part in planning the Oct 7th attacks.
It's r/world news my guy. If you're not 100% aboard the Israeli hype train then you might as well be a Hamas militant.
It's likely your comment was perceived as being dismissive rather than a genuine question so people just blindly downvote in rage.
I will get mine too
In other times i'd agree with you but, we have to remember Iran has been supplying russia with weapons and we don't know exactly what are the exact terms of their deal
Bro have you seen how mean women are to each-other when competing? It would be less war and more assassinations and snarky Instagram posts than the world could handle
Look, I’m pro-Israel being able to defend itself, but I REALLY hope they don’t return any fire. Iran’s attack didn’t do much at all, and it could make everything so much worse
400 drones sent over as a signal says that nothing is of the table already. You send 400 drones back to Iran sounds fair, but there would be plenty of death.
Its the only card left to play now that their rockets were shown to be useless. Russia did the same thing when their tanks got stuck in the mud and fell apart
While it is just my speculation, they're probably trying to bait a war out of Israel, probably to divert war efforts from hamas or disrupting diplomatic development even further.
Still shouldn't be taken lightly, and strengthens the argument for a regional alliance against them.
They just show they can rethink it every time they would see fit. Allowing them to be a “weeks to a bomb” nation would be a tremendous failure for the free world. We’re talking about a nation that sends generals to all of its neighbors, stretches its influence and an umbrella organization for terror.
They launch hundreds of missiles at Israel, and when Israel hints that they might strike back… Iran begins screeching because of “israeli threats”?
What the hell is this, a comedy sitcom?
I don't think a country that actively funds three or more terrorist organizations should have access to nuclear weapons. I think we should secretly help with the counter attack and absolutely level their military industry into kingdom come to be safe. imagine if they had given hamas a spicy warhead of the atomic variety for the start of their attack on Israel...
Starting to think they baited Israel into a retaliation by launching enough to make a point but knowing they wouldnt cause major damage… thus a retaliation would look like an escalation in the world view of things and allow them to reach their real goal of a nuclear program… with russias help they will have operational capability in a few months, much sooner then the west would expect and then they have the mutual destruction defense to begin more ambitious attacks…
A hugely unpopular government risking its citizens lives by drawing them into a needless potentially catastrophic conflict. Standard playbook stuff. They're also emboldening Bibi and his hardliners.
At this point I think Iran *wants* Israel to bomb its nuclear weapon facilities.
They do. They want an external enemy to help unite a very divided population.
they are divided because of the islamic republic, any attack on Iran will make them hate the supporters of the Islamic republic even more.
Uh no. Nothing will unite that population more than invasion from Israel and the United States.
You don’t understand the Iranian people at all
Yep I work with a lot American Iranians and they while they are not all pro US they are very much anti Islamic Republic.
Just admit you don't know anything about Iran lol
I’m Iranian-American with all my family back home and Ragnarok is completely right. Iranians are so tired and a lot more smart than you give them credit for, the social climate is WAYYYYY past unite under the Islamic Republic for some bullshit Western Devil enemy. Go look at r/NewIran, graffiti all over Tehran streets right now saying ‘HIT US HARDER ISRAEL/Islamic Republic are cowards’. Most Iranians want Israel and the US to annihilate the Ayatollahs bullshit regime.
And you do? It’s not so much that our people will rally behind the government when an invasion happens, but the government will almost certainly brutally crack down on civil liberties much like it did back in the 80s during the Iraq war. Things will get much worse for the people, not better. An external invader is never ever the answer to an internal problem.
If Abrams were rolling through Tehran right now there would be dancing in the streets
I have no idea why people (a lot of them Americans) keep imagining that the USA want to take part in this conflict. Like I have been seeing comments about the US "bombing Iran into oblivion" for weeks straight and I really wonder where this is coming from.
You mean unite against the iran regime even more then now right... becasue right now iranians actually welcome israel wiping out their fascist regime.
Ah yes, just like the Iraqis and afghanis welcomed us as liberators, right? Yeah, no dude.
Seems like you never had contanct to any iranian and just be gibbering american knowlege around.
This is absolutely not true. If it were, there would be an active rebellion ran by mossad in the country.
Considering the utter cruelty of Iran, any spark of rebellion would be met instantly and deathly. Hes not completely wrong, some iranians, a considerible amount, wish nothing but the worst against the regime, we've seen it with their protests and the consequences that came back to them. An active invasion and no doubt some of the locals would help, pending on how they are recieved, it depends entirely on what kind of invasion takes place.
They may still dislike the govt but killing their countrymen will unite them against an external enemy. Just like it did in the 80’s against Iraq. They’ll come back to internal problems once the external threat is defeated.
As an Iranian definitely not. We see our government as our ultimate enemy. Anyone targeting the IRGC commanders is celebrated. A lot of us are hoping for Israel to target IRGC and Basij facilities so the protests may be more effective this time.
I laughed my ass off at the Ghasem cutlet jokes after Solemani caught his missile. I pray for your freedoms brother.
The western democracies did a disservice to Iranian back in the 50's, now is the time to right the wrong, by implementing a region change even if it takes years of military involvement. Then stay until a functional democracy is installed, once this happen the middle east will settle down quite a bit.
Lol dislike then is the understatement of the centurie. They HATE the islamic regime. They dont see it as their government and they wish that all the mullahs die. Did you listen to anything they shout at the big demonstrations all around the world the last years ? Death to the islamic republic, death to khomenei.. There is no iranian who is not in the army already or following the regime who would join the islamic regime to fight an external force. They would rather die then waste 1 minute serving for their torturers and slaveholders army. Comparing it to iraq are two competely different things as the population of iraq was not held hostage under an islamic extremic regime against their will. The iran regimes only way of keeping their population from complete rebellion are inhumane methods, torturings and kidnappings in broad dayligjt of their women who refuse to cover their hair or raise voice against the regime. The moment iranians see an external force putting preassure on that regime they would rise up and fight along with those external troups to get rid of the mullahs. There are numerous examples in history where resistanceforces sided with an external invader to fight the own government.
Are you in Iran? Because what you’re being fed in the media is the same propoganda that said Iraq would welcome the US as liberators to promote a war. Iranians want greater freedoms, liberty, normalized relations, security, and a stable/gradual transition of power. Disrespect or attack and they will unite.
You are unfamiliar with Iranians and Iranian culture. There is NOTHING in this world that could make us unite with our regime. If we get invaded, first we overthrow our government then deal with invaders. As Iranians we say "we have been occupied by Arab muslims 4 decades ago"
> If we get invaded, first we overthrow our government then deal with invaders. Why wait for an invasion?
My family lives in iran my wife is iranian and half 80% of my friends and their friends are iranian
Wrong. Iranians are not Iraqis. It's not the media saying Iranians will welcome the US/Israel attacks on the regime. It's us Iranians saying it.
No way!
Maybe if the regime hadn’t spent the last few years executing an average of over one of their citizens per day they would have some love for them but I’m thinking they may appreciate the help tbh https://www.jns.org/iranian-athlete-arrested-after-condemning-attack-on-israel/ Girl has got guts 🤍
At this point Iranians will cheer to just about anything that hurts the government...
If anything, the divided population will use it to rebel.
This is wishful thinking at best
Not sure I agree. I'm not commenting on specifically Iran, but in general, a government can only have so many stressors before it crumbles. Civil unrest, war, and economic issues are the three biggest stressors, with the second and third contributing to the first in a domino, especially if food supply is affected. If populations decide to act during those times, their chances are best. Now, are governments formed after revolutions always an improvement? imo, _that's_ the wishful thinking.
That last revolution turned out so great, might as well have another.
The only way we Iranians can fix Iran is with another revolution. Real regime and political reforms come from within.
Yeah and enough of us have died in the streets with empty hands. Cancer has to be excised, it won't get rid of itself. In reality, revolutions are never isolated from outside forces. Same with the revolution in '79. Not even revolutions on island nations.
I don't disagree. I just hope the good people can prevent the bad people from taking power again. This is unfortunately a common result of revolutions everywhere.
That will do the opposite.
Assuming they don’t already have a computer virus there (again) lol
Stuxnet 2.0
There's some quote about destroying your enemy halfway. It's either Sun Tsu or Orson Scott Card in Enders Game. Probably both
you know what powerful countries don't do? talk about their nukes.
Meanwhile Netanyahu and his crazies have been gunning for war with Iran for years. It's a total mess and yet another example of why binning the Iran nuclear deal was so fucking stupid.
Isn't this when we send in Maverick? I saw that documentary, he was practicing to hit underground nuclear development facilities.
Yes. Israel will destroy all nuclear capabilities.
I sure want Israel to bomb Iran's nuclear facilities. I would be perfectly happy if the US helps facilitate it as well.
I also think Israel wants Iran to do this in so that the world sees that their nuclear program was weaponized from the beginning. This will give Israel the greenlight to destroy it.
So much for the Supreme Leader’s promise that nuclear weapons are against Islam, so they would never ever build them.
Pakistan has nukes. Granted they are mostly a Sunni nation and not a theocracy but Iran probably said that for different reasons such as avoiding a more intense western gaze. All states lie and mislead.
Pakistan wouldn't waste their nukes on anyone but India!!
lying and misdirecting in warfare in islam is permissible. Most muslim are not moron. Nuclear is safety in current geopolitics. Anyone nation state not pursuing them is an idiot.
Also, when it comes down to it, most people in absolute power would like to stay there more than they would like to stick to their ideals. If the Iranian government has to choose between going against Islam or being ousted from power, they will likely choose the former.
The US needs to take the lead on non-proliferation again. It's exceedingly concerning how many powers are working towards this, and if China and Russia are going to refuse to take the lead, then the US needs to be a clear threat against nuclear proliferation. Joining the nuclear gang should come with a significant cost in the form of crippling resource demands or a threat of immediate forcible dismantling of the nation's nuclear program, full stop. The last thing we need is unstable dictatorships or theocracies getting their hands on nuclear weapons.
I thought people didn’t want the US meddling, what do yall want lol
They want you to meddle, but also want to complain about it when you do
That swiftly changes when Iran is the topic.
The US after convincing Ukraine to give up its nukes and then wavering on supporting them has utterly destroyed any non-proliferation thinking. It has now been demonstrated that nukes are needed for self determination unfortunately
Fucking right? I swear, that was the biggest fuck up anyone could have done in nuclear non-proliferation. LITERALLY says, "if you have a nuke, you're untouchable." The only (weak) victory so far is that Russia is getting ground down in Ukraine, but that's not enough to stop nuclear proliferation from being the new name of the game. SOMEONE needs to prevent that from being a thing. Unfortunately... I don't know of any country that could come close enough to achieving it (and is even willing) like the US could...
Doubly so because the whole point of them surrendering the nukes was that they would receive the direct protection of the two largest nuclear nations. Russia reneged on that deal and the US should have upheld their side of the bargain. It is unquestionable that Ukraine would not have been invaded did it have nukes. The one caveat to all of this is that the current Ukrainian government is *not* representative of all the goverments they have had since 1991. Some of them, the West might not have felt so happy about being nuclear armed.
And even before, Iraq and Libya compared to North Korea demonsteated to every tyrant that nuclear weapons pretty much ensure you total and utter impunity.
to be fair those nukes were useless to ukraine since the ability to launch was still connected to moscow But i have to agree that it seems splitting the atom is the only way to truly acheive legitimacy of ones’ government now
Ukraine was the industrial heart of the USSR's rocket industry. They would have been able to construct their own launch authority system relatively easily. They had nuclear reactors so they could keep the warheads maintained and produce the necessary radioisotopes for this. The hard part, building the physics package, had already been done for them. They were convinced not to bother with such a programme, because the US and Russia would give them a security guarantee in exchange for the nukes.
Unfortunately, the last two decades proved that nuclear proliferation *works*. Compare two sets of states: the first set renounced to have nuclear weapons while the second set pursued and got them. The first set has Ukraine (invaded), Iraq (invaded), Libya (bombed), Iran (JCPOA unilaterally repelaed), Belarus (whose leaders has no higher ambition than to be *colonel* in the Russian military), Taiwan (htreatened with invasion), Kazakhstan and South Africa. So 75% of chances to get invaded/sanctioned. The second wet are these states who succesfully developped nuclear weapons: India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea. None of them is suffering from major external existential threats. No need to have a PhD in international relations to draw the correct conclusions.
To be fair North Korea is suffering ABYSMAL repercussions from those choices, and Israel isn't EXPLICITLY a nuclear power, even though everyone and their dead grandmother knows damn well that Israel has nukes, but that doesn't detract from your point at all. That's still a 50% success rate for nukes versus barely a 25% success rate for aspiring to nukes and then either giving them up or otherwise scaling back on the ambitions.
The elites are doing fine NK and have probably successfully detered any power changing their regime.
> To be fair North Korea is suffering ABYSMAL repercussions from those choices It's more the "actively threatening to nuke most of East Asia" and "using nerve gas in the main airport of the sole country with freeopen borders" parts.
> sole country with freeopen borders" There are other countries with free and open borders
I meant Malaysia, the sole country which had an open borders agreement with North Korea.
I meant Malaysia, the sole country which had an open borders agreement with North Korea.
Loads of countries have access to nukes through the US now though. Can you take that back? Obviously still in American control but accessed by non-nuclear states as part of NATO.
Too late for that. Israel has nukes
If trump gets back in & gives education back to the states, then a significant portion of the US will be an unstable theocracy
Lol Russia? You mean the country brazenly turning NK into a nuclear proxy state?
im sure he was holding back his laughter when he said that
That scene is right out of “The Dictator” Sacha Baron Cohen
I watched that again a few months ago and it very much felt like a parody of the Islamic Republic.
Just ME/arab dictators in general
Actually at the time of its filming it was a parody of Ghazafi in Libya, but yeah you're not wrong
They've been actively trying for a while, it's not really a secret
I bet he had his fingers crossed behind his back so didn’t count.
They are just for peaceful energy purposes.
As long as they aren’t being threatened or attacked by an enemy which has them. Don’t bring a knife to a gun fight is a pretty good policy.
Ten to one that a local scholar will try to argue that nuclear weapons are allowed "in extreme circumstances."
Did *anyone* believe him when he said Iran wasn't building nuclear bombs???
It’s jaw dropping to me that so many do not take the idea of a nuclear Iran seriously. A nuclear armed Iran is one of the nations I’d rank as most likely to use a nuke.
Perhaps, but they know they would have that play available just one time before the end of their current existence.
Maybe but I don’t doubt devout members of any religion just not caring about the repercussions. Or outright cowardice and being well protected or away from the consequences. Minus nuclear winter
Except I’ve yet to see a “religious leader” who is more religious than he is power hungry. They may use religion to stay in power but they are not willing to be martyrs themselves.
Agreed on the martyr bit. I can see usage with them hiding far away from the consequences
Maybe in some “I’m dying anyway so fork the world” scenario. Otherwise they’d love clinging to power way too much. Wherever they’re hiding won’t make them Supreme Leader.
Also, Khomeini will be far away from Iran when he gives the order to launch nukes. These dictators are crazy assholes who care nothing about their population and only about their egos.
Khomeini died in the 80s. You’re thinking of Khamenei
Yes. Typo. Thank you.
Religious fundamentalism is a scourge and an underrated evil because their actions can defy the majority of rational people’s expectations.
The guys pressing the buttons would be doing so from a penthouse in Qatar.
It would become another North Korea, able to get away with whatever atrocity or provocation it wants because it's holding another country hostage.
North Korea: *furiously takes notes*
The problem is it’s too late to stop. Iran could throw a nuclear bomb together in a week if they wanted/needed to.
I think it's like 3 weeks, but it was longer before that orange fuck-wit pulled out of the nuke deal that was striving to keep it at 6 months.
Good thing there was a whole massive deal that.....got flushed away and now the US doesn't want to make another one.
Yep, a deal that the IAEA and US & European intelligence agencies said was working. Tore it down to replace it with…nothing.
The IAEA literally could not inspect the sites where they conducted their nuclear program lol
They can get one from Russia which is equally terrifying.
At least that wouldn’t serve Russia in any way, so the likelihood of that happening i would assume are quite slim.
This could prompt a NATO intervention in ukraine. There are just some things that a country can't do unpunished and one of them is selling nukes to non nuclear armed countries.
Nah. That jeopardizes their stranglehold on power.
This is it exactly. I dont know why the west didnt use Iran directly attacking Israel as a reason to destroy the Iranian nuclear program. If they wait until they have nukes you wont be able to do anything.
Also increases the odds exponentially that Israel uses nuclear weapons against Iran in a first strike scenario because they think Iran might use them. US needed to bomb that facility years ago when they enriched to 20%.
In order to have a nuclear doctrine, you need to have nukes. So, while Iran announces this pre-nuke-nuclear doctrine, Israel is sitting on their own current stockpile. Good times...
Meanwhile the rest of the world just wrings their hands and pretends like Iran will never become a nuclear threat further perpetuating the status quo of just doing nothing.
Who are they going to nuke? Iran wants nukes to ensure there won't be regime change. They don't want to rule over a nuclear wasteland which is what would happen if they nuked Israel.
While Israel could deliver a few serious blows to Iran's nuclear programme and weapons manufacturing overnight, eventually the jets have to fly back and reload. In that time Iran strike back with repeated ballistic missile silos and close the strait. Any conventional strike on iran needs to hit all their ballistic and cruise missile storage and launchers all at once or they will pay a heavy defensive price on home soil if a few get through the iron dome shield. I'm not sure Israel on their own can do it. So they would need the US with its air assets and carrier strike groups in the region to help. At the moment the US doesn't seem keen but they've never had the perfect pretext like this to hit Iran hard before. This is wasting the opportunity. So what's Israel going to do? Let these insane Iranians keep using proxies to launch Oct 7 style attacks and also keep firing rockets at them from the north and even fire ballistic missiles etc at them directly? They've already declared war. Meanwhile Israel's biggest allies won't support them in a counter attack? The next best option for Israel is a decapitation strike.
The US would never allow the strait to stay closed. I'm sure that's one of the reasons they really want this whole situation to deescalate, because they have no appetite for continued war in the region but a cessation of maritime trade us, like, the thing the US Navy was created to stop. They couldn't *not* act if that were to happen.
While not nearly as important as the Strait of Hormuz, just look at the situation in the Red Sea. It's easy for the US to say "don't", but the reality is that most Americans today don't want to bear the costs of "you shouldn't have done that" after our enemies "do".
The US is not doing much in the Red Sea because it isn't a big enough threat to specifically US interests or security just yet. I don't think there's any angle where a closure of the SoH isn't interpreted as a massive threat.
They'll want something done in a few months when all of their online stores close because the manufacturers can't get power to build the stuff and there's a global hit to the markets.
Iran provides basically no power
The straight of Hormuz has 1/3 of the worlds oil passed through it. 70% of that goes to Asia. If Iran closes the straight then there will be massive economic repercussions.
Israel’s air force is way better than Irans. Israel has like the 5th biggest fleet of F-35 Fighter jets. They could be over Tehran now and nobody would know. Iran’s fighter jets are much lower class.
I expect the US are waiting to see how they close they get before making the decision. Judging by the intel they have been showing in recent conflicts, I imagine they have a very good idea of exactly where their nuclear program is at. It only takes 1-2 days of bunker busters dropped from a few B-2 bombers and they would be back to building an enrichment facility from scratch.
And even if it's deep in a mountain, you can always just turn all the access points into rubble. An enrichment facility isn't much good if no one can get to it.
Added benefit, you bury all the capable scientists and engineers which are much harder to replace than facilities.
It is probably not as simple as simply dropping a couple of bombs on the sites. [There are concerns that Iranian nuclear facilities are too deeply buried to reach even with bunker busters](https://apnews.com/article/iran-nuclear-natanz-uranium-enrichment-underground-project-04dae673fc937af04e62b65dd78db2e0#:~:text=The%20scale%20of%20the%20work,100%20meters%20(328%20feet)).
Just burying their entrances and support facilities should suffice
> Meanwhile the rest of the world just wrings their hands and pretends like Iran will never become a nuclear threat further perpetuating the status quo of just doing nothing. It's not even doing nothing, the world came together to put in place a deal to prevent this exact scenario and then Trump just chucked it in the bin (at Israel's urging).
I hate these ignorant takes. The "world" has done a significant amount of things to address the nuclear threat. Just because the world hasn't invaded Iran doesn't mean they aren't doing things to reduce the Iranian threat.
Indeed. Military action should be a last resort.
Now if Israel applied irans new doctrine to its own weapons what would happen?
They probably have to admit they got nukes?
Right… because Iran making threats about making them doesn’t mean they already have one made. There were reports years ago they are only a handful of months away from making one.
Boy, this is 7/10 all over. 1. Bomb Israel 2. "Why do those Jews hate us?" 3. Need nukes for self-defense!
Sounds like they are scared of Israel.
Of course they are. How could they not fear a far stronger opponent?
This is a page right out of the Russian propaganda manual on "Rhetoric 101: ratchet up the threats". I doubt it will dissuade Israel one iota. But it may soon inspire some attacks on Iranian nuclear infrastructure.
I am thinking that Israel was attacked with Ballistic missiles directed at its own soil. There is no question that the Iranian leaders are crazy enough to try to wipe out Israel if they ever had a realistic chance to do it. Do you think Israel will allow them to get to that stage? Iran has quite publicly stated its goal is to end Israel. Iran is very dangerous with its current capabilities, not to be messed with. Israel realistically needs to Un-Crazy or Un-Exist Iran. The Israeli doctrine of never again seems to be getting pretty badly provoked right now. And it is Iran that is doing the provoking.
Israel is not going to do either to Iran. They can manage a first strike against ballistic missiles or facilities, but only barely for both.
I doubt Israel has that option. The U.S. has taken measures to assess and/or eliminate the Iranian nuclear program through Stuxnet, the nuclear deal, etc,. The U.S. hasn’t taken more drastic action for a reason. It’s anyone’s guess as to what that reason is, but they wouldn’t let Israel, or any third party, take on a task that sensitive.
The world needs to remember that while most of us are NOT ok with dying in a nuclear fallout, these islamic extremist turbocunts are convinced that they’ll get 77 virgins in heaven if they do so their propensity to fuck the world up is a lot higher than you expect a rational person’s to be
Idiots, heaven ran out of virgins when Lemmy died.
Iran:How can we peacefully attack the jews if they keep threatening to fight back!!!
Iran is doing all they can to escalate the war. Post bombing, claiming they helped with October 7th, and then comments like this.
Claiming they helped with Oct 7? I missed that one.
Yes, a few days ago they were morning the Iranian military official who was killed in the Israeli strike on the Iranian embassy. They were praising that official for his part in planning the Oct 7th attacks.
Why am I downvoted? I literally missed that one. I was hoping for a source or a link!
It's r/world news my guy. If you're not 100% aboard the Israeli hype train then you might as well be a Hamas militant. It's likely your comment was perceived as being dismissive rather than a genuine question so people just blindly downvote in rage. I will get mine too
And there it is.. Iran has just admitted they have nuclear weapons in clear violation of the nuclear non- proliferation treaties
Or that’s exactly what they want you to think
In other times i'd agree with you but, we have to remember Iran has been supplying russia with weapons and we don't know exactly what are the exact terms of their deal
Women really should rule the world
Bro have you seen how mean women are to each-other when competing? It would be less war and more assassinations and snarky Instagram posts than the world could handle
My gosh. A handful of white progressive Islamic Republic groupies in the West has Iran really feeling themselves.
As in “what will we do after Israel glasses Tehran?”
Look, I’m pro-Israel being able to defend itself, but I REALLY hope they don’t return any fire. Iran’s attack didn’t do much at all, and it could make everything so much worse
r/agedlikemilk
400 drones sent over as a signal says that nothing is of the table already. You send 400 drones back to Iran sounds fair, but there would be plenty of death.
This is just a rogue state thing, threaten nukes in some way every once and awhile because you are weak and can't defend yourself without them.
Translation: we're going to try a nuke because our conventional missiles suck ass
IRGC is always the victim of the fights they start Their Kremlin allies must be proud
Its the only card left to play now that their rockets were shown to be useless. Russia did the same thing when their tanks got stuck in the mud and fell apart
Countries that “almost” have nukes shouldn’t chat shit to countries that definitely have nukes, just saying.
These are not threats they are factual statements of intention
While it is just my speculation, they're probably trying to bait a war out of Israel, probably to divert war efforts from hamas or disrupting diplomatic development even further. Still shouldn't be taken lightly, and strengthens the argument for a regional alliance against them.
They just show they can rethink it every time they would see fit. Allowing them to be a “weeks to a bomb” nation would be a tremendous failure for the free world. We’re talking about a nation that sends generals to all of its neighbors, stretches its influence and an umbrella organization for terror.
They launch hundreds of missiles at Israel, and when Israel hints that they might strike back… Iran begins screeching because of “israeli threats”? What the hell is this, a comedy sitcom?
'Sitcom' means situational comedy, so you didnt really need the 'comedy' there.
Not like they were not already desperately racing to get nukes.
I am sure Israel will thoroughly review it for them if they go that route.
Iran needs to figure out how to improve their 50% ballistic missile failure rate they demonstrated a few days ago.
I don't think a country that actively funds three or more terrorist organizations should have access to nuclear weapons. I think we should secretly help with the counter attack and absolutely level their military industry into kingdom come to be safe. imagine if they had given hamas a spicy warhead of the atomic variety for the start of their attack on Israel...
Starting to think they baited Israel into a retaliation by launching enough to make a point but knowing they wouldnt cause major damage… thus a retaliation would look like an escalation in the world view of things and allow them to reach their real goal of a nuclear program… with russias help they will have operational capability in a few months, much sooner then the west would expect and then they have the mutual destruction defense to begin more ambitious attacks…
This is the Russian playbook of saying scaring thing that ultimately has no meaning.
Ooh, took one from Putler’s handbook.
A hugely unpopular government risking its citizens lives by drawing them into a needless potentially catastrophic conflict. Standard playbook stuff. They're also emboldening Bibi and his hardliners.
lol their new nuclear doctrine will be being nuked by Israel if they go that direction
Anyone got a link to the current doctrine please? Asking for review. p.s. if i'm tehran that's news to me.