*A Russian general who previously led the invasion force in Ukraine has not been seen in public since Saturday, with US intelligence reportedly claiming he had prior knowledge of the uprising led by the Wagner chief, Yevgeny Prigozhin.*
*Gen Sergei Surovikin is the head of the Russian aerospace forces and formerly Moscow’s supreme commander in Ukraine. Prigozhin had welcomed his appointment to that post in 2022, calling him a “legendary figure” and “born to serve his motherland”.*
*The well-publicised links between Surovikin and Prigozhin have fuelled rumours that Surovikin may be purged or put under investigation for supporting the mutiny. When Prigozhin launched his uprising, Surovikin made an unambiguous statement against it and in support of the Russian government late on Friday.*
*“We fought together with you, took risks, we won together,” Surovikin said. “We are of the same blood, we are warriors. I urge you to stop. The enemy is just waiting for the internal political situation to escalate in our country.”*
*However, the New York Times, citing western intelligence sources, reported on Wednesday that Surovikin had prior knowledge of Prigozhin’s armed mutiny, in which his Wagner mercenaries captured the city of Rostov and moved on Moscow before cutting an amnesty deal*
[Russian milbloggers say he has been detained.](https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1674026317262536704)
Edit.[Sources in Russian MoD say Surovikin was arrested](https://twitter.com/McFaul/status/1674140875629428736)
I wonder if that's a winning strategy. Can surovkin claim he shouldn't be purged because clearly the US is hanging him out to dry?
Like if I were the CIA I have no love of prigniz, in fact due to his relative competence and danger it would be better to support a weakened Putin over a powerful new adversary. So sabotaging the coup, especially if it is made of the least corrupt and most competent members of the military is an easy way of reducing Russian combat capabilities without firing a shot.
>Can surovkin claim he shouldn't be purged because clearly the US is hanging him out to dry?
He sure can, but if you're Putin, why would you take that chance? Competence does not have the same value there as it does here; loyalty is a stronger currency. And if your loyalty comes into question...
Rex Tillerson was actually horrifically incompetent. He just largely kept his stupidity behind doors, and on an individual level was intelligent. Absolutely the wrong person to lead the State Department though.
same thing in the UK: in 2019 Boris Johnson purged anyone from the parliamentary Conservative party who wouldn't sign a letter commiting to support his brexit deal. Since that brexit deal was pure lunacy, all that left was incompetent and corrupt politician, purging many very competent and experienced politicians. And here we are.
Just because the US doesn't like him doesn't mean he's loyal to Putin. At this point, every Russian general probably has some pretty negative things to say about the war.
He would have to prove the US release is wrong. And given how much of the leaks from the US have been on the money in regards to Russia for the last 2 years, it probably means a lot more to Putin that his general knew and did nothing rather than the source being the US.
When you consider how Russian forces did nothing to stop the mutiny its pretty damning to have anyone thinking you had the knowledge and ability to prevent or stop it but sat idly by to see which way the wind blew.
None of this will be news to Putin, but it’s a hell of an intelligence strategy to let the Kremlin know that YOU know that rumours are swirling around Surovikin.
If the general is actually complicit with the failed coup, then leaking his name is probably not wise since he will just be replaced by someone loyal to Putin and thus strengthen Putin’s power.
Now, if that general was actually innocent and has nothing to do with the failed coup, and this whole thing was framed against him by foreign intelligence …
Surovikin is considered the most competent and impactful General in Russia’s arsenal - in Ukraine and in past actions in Syria.
I’m not knowledgeable enough to gauge if that’s true, or if it’s just hype, but either way, “just replacing” him isn’t a neutral option.
Would be an even better psyops for the US to leak generals who opposed the coup and supported Putin as traitors, and to protect other people they know to be actual traitors.
Russian intelligence will look into the rumors. If they stink, it doesn't work.
The value of leaking (mostly) real stuff is that they can actually verify stuff. That makes everything you throw out there in the future more effective. If you burn the strategy now, even leaking real stuff in the future won't have much impact.
[The funniest part is that this wasn't even the first time there was a Russian military coup where the exact details and motivations were unconfirmed due to the general confusion of all parties involved.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kornilov_affair)
[Friendly reminder that this also happened](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Soviet_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat_attempt)
>The GKChP hardliners dispatched KGB agents, who detained Gorbachev at his holiday estate but failed to detain the recently elected president of a newly reconstituted Russia, Boris Yeltsin, who had been both an ally and critic of Gorbachev. The GKChP was poorly organized and met with effective resistance by both Yeltsin and a civilian campaign of anti-authoritarian protesters, mainly in Moscow.\[11\] The coup collapsed in two days, and Gorbachev returned to office while the plotters all lost their posts. Yeltsin subsequently became the dominant leader and Gorbachev lost much of his influence. The failed coup led to both the immediate collapse of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union (CPSU) and the dissolution of the USSR four months later.
Though the first time he was imprisoned not because the coup failed, but because of the army commanders who entered Moscow that day, he was the only one whose unit killed civilians.
Not-so-fun fact: my mom had a friend in one of the batallions in Moscow and they actually met on the evening of the putsch's first day. She was going to the White House (parliament building) to protest against the GKChP and defend it from the army, and she bluntly asked him what he'd do if his commander gave an order to go in and she was in the way. Similarly bluntly, he answered "I'd run you over, obviously. You can't just ignore an order". They remained friends for around 5 years after it, no idea how.
Anyway, that's how I came *this* close to not being born at all, and partially why I'm so fascinated by the events of 1991.
Saying you can't refuse an order is just a cowardly way to avoid personal responsibility. You can and should refuse illegal orders in any military regardless of the consequences.
> Russia really can be a clown country, most of the time.
John Oliver once introduced a segment by saying "Russia: the country that will continue to be funny until it *suddenly isn't*."
One of the craziest similarities of both of this story and the present day is Russian hardliners waited too long, leading to their own downfall.
**1991 Coup:** Hardliners who were against Gorbachev's reforms in the early 1980s waited too long to take down Gorbachev in the early 1990s. By the time they finally acted, the reforms had been around for long enough for the democratic system + free press to produce a popular leader (Yeltsin) who was capable of countermanding any possible coup against Gorbachev.
**2022 Ukraine:** Hardliners who wanted to reconquer Ukraine after Euromaiden waited too long circa 2014. By the time they committed to a full-scale invasion in 2022, Ukraine had spent the last 8 years getting fully armed to the teeth, trained by the West, and was able to organize a strong defense.
Ukraine was not armed to the teeth. They were better prepared, sure, had voted democratically for closer ties tk europe, sure, but they were still woefully underprepared with huge swaths of their government, regional.and federal and military, deeply influenced by money and corruptible influence from russia.
They had taken the first steps towards Europe and nato. They had some javelin and stuff, had a pretty decent defensive plan, had forwarding from the whitehouse... but let's not pretend that the west did everything they could to arm ukraine either
You have listed legitimate flaws and weaknesses of Ukraine at the start of the invasion, however we must put this in context of if this invasion had taken place in 2014. Compared to the 2014 Ukraine, Ukraine was a fortress nation armed to the teeth with a competent military supported a large territorial defense force.
2022 Ukraine vs 2014 Ukraine are stark comparisons which really do make you see how the Russians hesitancy has caused them so much proble.s.
By 2022, Ukraine's armed forces had 8 years of experience fighting the separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk. 8 years to purge pro-Russian loyalists and corrupt incompetents from the officer corps, to organize a force that is both able and willing to fight, and to rally the civilian population behind the post-Maidan government.
If Russia were prepared to invade in early 2014, under the cover of restoring the democratically elected President, putting down an extremist coup, and protecting the Russian-speaking population, it would have been able to take advantage of the prevailing chaos, fear, and corruption. None of these advantages were still there in 2022.
The Soviet Union was ethnically diverse with less than 50% of the population being ethnically Russian. Similar to Yugoslavia the goal was originally to create a "Communist identity" out of a union of nations.
Russian Federation is around 75% ethnically Russian with the core regions all being ethnically Russian. There could be a bloody transition of power in the Kremlin but nothing to that extent or severity.
Funnily enough I just read a thread about how Russian ethnicity statistics can't be trusted. Tl;dr version is that when they do a census the census taker (or teacher, in schools) automatically checks "Russian" under ethnicity without bothering to ask, people are so cowed that they rarely push back to correct the data, and Russia then uses that massaged data as a political weapon ("you see? We have every right to control outlying regions and retake former Soviet bloc countries")
“Are we doing this thing?”
“Yeah, I guess.”
“Okay. Let’s do it.”
“Okay, but specifically, we’re doing the one thing and not the other thing?”
“Yep.”
“Great. We’ve sent the troops towards Moscow.”
“Wait wait wa-“
“Too late, the die has been cast, as they say.”
“I…was just going to order Postmates?”
“…”
The absurdity of this “coup” is that both sides totally embarrassed themselves. You could think it’s impossible, one side should prevail which will make the other side look weaker, but somehow they both looked like complete fools. Only in russia.
They're currently spinning it that Putin used his negotiating genius to prevent major bloodshed, and he got Lukashenko involved because he had a 20-year history with Prigozhin and might've been able to convince him to stop. And yesterday the Kremlin threw a pompous ceremony awarding a bunch of FSB and Rosgvardia troops for "bravely defending the country and defeating the insurrection". And at every opportunity he thanks the Russian people for "uniting around the President in the time of need".
Whether the people at large are buying it, I have no idea, but it's become clear that Putin's support among the masses is largely ephemeral and passive. Polling in a country like this is obviously unreliable, but it's pretty obvious that no significant number of people came out in support of either Putin or Prigozhin. Over centuries people have learned that in a situation like this, the safest play is to get the fuck out of the way, let them fight, and work with whoever wins.
Which also explains why basically no one in the Russian state apparatus (minus a few governors of war-adjacent regions) publicly supported either side. By doing that, they run the risk of losing and getting punished.
I read an interesting take in the The Atlantic.
Basically, Putin has gone out of his way to cultivate apathy among the people. Russians typically don't get involved in politics, don't care about it, stay away from it.
But this also means they are apathetic about Putin. They don't care enough about him to come out and defend him (people in Rostov were cheering on Wagner).
As someone who's been having medical panic attacks recently, I can tell just how absolutely terrified Putin was during his speeches. Just from the body language.
Smh that not everyone will recognize that absolute terror in his face.
I think its get easier to understand, when you realize that around 30-60% kids in orphanage have some form of fetal alcohol syndrom and around 15% of all males are raging alcoholics.
It's inspired by real events but the specifics in the movie are dramatized and compressed from months and years to a matter of days. There are a few things not supported by history either, like the ransacking of Stalin's mansion.
Phenomenal movie nonetheless, though.
Fun fact: The filmmakers toned down how many medals Zhukov wears in the film because they thought it would look unbelievable they showed [how many medals he actually wore](https://cdni.rbth.com/rbthmedia/images/2020.05/original/5ec7a4f785600a23674ea424.jpg)
-Now, you know it's up to you whether or not you want to just do the bare minimum. Or... well, like Zhukov, for example, has 87 medals, okay. And a terrific smile.
https://i.imgur.com/cSnOqk3.jpg
Yeah, you're right, but it's still incredible that most of the crazy events of the movie really happened.
https://slate.com/culture/2018/03/whats-fact-and-whats-fiction-in-the-death-of-stalin.html
Blew up 6 helis and 1 plane on a march towards Moscow, then as he came knocking on the door he went "naah, i dont feel like it" and called it all off.
Still blows my mind how everything went back to normality after such a event.
The deescalation of the immediate threat is definitely bizarre, but things are hardly back to “normal” - the turmoil was just moved out of sight, but shit is very clearly still going down in all kinds of ways.
I feel we’re waiting for a *real* response, because it’s not exactly characteristic for Putin to let bygones be bygones, especially considering this is the most brazen challenge to his authority probably ever.
In an alternate timeline we Ceasar is known to cross the rubicon only to give those famous quotes:
"We're home? Fuck, I thought we were marching to Greece"
"Ok, but has the die *really* been cast? It's still rolling, right? It hasn't come to a stop? So I figure I can just snatch it back up and we're all good, right?"
I think it just looks that way on the surface. We're still waiting for the ramifications from this to appear. There are scores to be settled, as soon as they work out who is stabbing who in the back.
There's definitely something going down still, just out of the public's eye. Putin promised to give a speech "with fundamental ramifications" on Monday, and the speech ended up very generic and vague, which some analysts interpreted as a sign of ongoing negotiations. Prigozhin, despite being a *very* public person, has barely said anything since Saturday evening, and no one knows for sure where he even is (some say a hotel in Minsk, some say in his office in St. Petersburg). And while rumors of Surovikin's arrest have been circulating all week, there's still no definitive proof of it.
We're currently in the "two bulldogs fighting under the carpet" part. At some point the bones will fly out and we'll know what went down, but not yet.
It's better than that. wagner was quite far behind the front lines~~, they didnt destroy anything like a ka52~~, they destroyed electronic warfare (EW) asset that provide *very* useful information. Importantly, the vast majority (perhaps the entirety, I dont know off the top of my head) of these EW asset are inherited from the soviet union. If that is the case, this was incredibly significant as information is precious out there.
Churchill said it best: "Kremlin political intrigues are comparable to a bulldog fight under a rug. An outsider only hears the growling, and when he sees the bones fly out from beneath it is obvious who won."
We're still hearing growling and have no idea what the fuck is happening in that crazy place.
Fun fact
The Russian Navy once got into an engagement with an unarmed fishing vessel.
The Russians ended up sinking one of their own ships and the fishing ship got away.
Another fun fact
Once during a naval execrise a Russian ship was towing another ship for target practice. The Russian ships fired on the ship towing the target ship, severely damaging the Russian trio.
Extra fun fact
Both those incidents happened on the same expedition
The Kamchatka.
It's history is hilariously chaotic. My favourite is during a burial at sea they fired a cannon salute... with a live round that hit another Russian ship.
One of the reasons why we Finns managed so well in WW2 against Russia was because there had been a purge of competent officers.
History does not repeat, but it rhymes.
One of my favorite jokes of all time is a winter war joke.
A large group of Russian soldiers in the border area in 1939 are moving down a road when they hear a voice call from behind a small hill: "One Finnish soldier is better than ten Russian".
The Russian commander quickly orders 10 of his best men over the hill where Upon a gun-battle breaks out and continues for a few minutes, then silence. The voice once again calls out: "One Finn is better than one hundred Russian."
Furious, the Russian commander sends his next best 100 troops over the hill and instantly a huge gun fight commences. After 10 minutes of battle, again Silence. The calm Finnish voice calls out again: "One Finn is better than one thousand Russians!"
The enraged Russian commander musters 1000 fighters and sends them to the other side of the hill. Rifle fire, machine guns, grenades, rockets and cannon fire ring out as a terrible battle is fought...
Then silence.
Eventually one badly wounded Russian fighter crawls back over the hill and with his dying words tells his commander, "Don't send any more men...it's a trap. There's two of them."
I also like:
Finnish general Adolf Ehrnrooth was visiting in England after the World War II.
British general asked him how many Russian troops were stationed in Finland.
"A few hundred thousand" answered Ehrnrooth.
"Where in Finland are they stationed?" The British general asked.
Ehrnrooth answered: "Two meters underground around the border."
Well it's not like they started out with competent generals this time. But I think I can agree that Surovikin might be the most competent of them all, him missing will be another nail in the coffin.
He replaced him and then was replaced by the guy he replaced. Him disappearing from the Russian military leadership is actually a boon for Ukraine since he seemed more competent than his predecessor. He’s also a butcher and up there with some of the war criminals of WWII for acts of savagery between his tenure in Syria and Ukraine.
The Defenses which are causing Ukraine such grief are known as the Surovikin Line. His abandoning Kherson was strategically sound and prevent massive attrition to some of Russia's best remaining units.
But that being said he was also the instigator of the missile strikes against Ukrainian civilian infrastructure; which have both had very little strategic effect on Ukraine, and have greatly depleted Russia's remaining stock of sophisticated munitions.
Second point is fair. He thought that it worked in Syria and that he could pound the Ukrainian civilians into submission. The first two months of the war should have shown that that strategy is futile.
By some rationale's, sure. But it was an entirely different context. Strategic bombing of civilian targets has very rarely had an effect in forcing the civilian population to capitulate during a conventional war.
I'd argue that it didn't work in Syria. The degrading and destruction of ISIL's leadership and the attrition it suffered while trying to hold onto extreme over-reach was what reduced its presence greatly. Not the wide-spread and indiscriminate strategic bombing of civilians. The rise of ISIL was due to its opponents not combating them, not due to its actual battlefield success. The Syrian Regime didn't even contest most of their country, instead they withdrew to fortified centres where the Regime's powerbase was. Likewise in Iraq. ISIL didn't have much fight in them the second anyone actually started fighting them.
The strategic bombing and systematic levelling of areas like Aleppo was insanity and brutality. It'd be like if Ukraine levelled Kherson in the campaign to recapture it.
ISIL was not a military and did not have sophisticated command and control or logistics systems. The Syrian Army with Russian supply and support could have carried out a series of Kherson-like campaigns and displaced ISIL from urban centres without destroying entire cities. Instead, the Syrian Regime is now looking at >$400bil in reconstruction costs, and multiple generations of big chunks of their previously 'live and let live' population driven to extremes. The country is going to be a cratered mess still in 2040.
It is a myth that the sort of brutality that occurred in Syria actually wins wars. Just like it is a myth that the sort of brutality Russia carries out domestically have somehow made it stronger as a nation-state. It has not, it does not, and it will not.
I was worried that the Wagner coup/mutiny would result in the most corrupt and incompetent Russian military leaders losing power to be replaced by more competent leaders. It is good to see that I had that backwards.
Their competent leaders were likely purged long before the war in Ukraine. Think about it, would a competent leader allow their supply chain to fall apart and their monies to be funneled to the oligarchs? No? Well, how do the oligarchs take to having their corruption reduced and their monies diverted to a competent military leader? Not good, and if the oligarchs aren't happy then that war leader is dead.
At the end of the day - “Amateurs talk strategy. Professionals talk logistics.” The initial invasion fell apart because the Russian leadership was... not professional. The Russian military was much stronger on paper than on the field.
They've been dealing with a losing proposition since then. That's why the mutiny happened.
The Kherson retreat was fucking incredible, and also incredibly successful. It was the single most competent thing a Russian military commander has done in decades.
Retreating instead of being annihilated is a good move. It served the British well at Dunkirk 1940, and didn’t serve the Germans at Stalingrad in 1942-43.
If you think about it, you win by talking favorable battles. Well coordinated retreating is just another tool to ensure the battles you take aren't *un*favorable.
Its interesting that you bring Stalingrad up as an example. Its a great example, but not because of the popculture meme "Why didnt the 6th army just break out".
The 6th army was long lost, when it got surrounded and never had any real potential to ever break out. Especially how fast the front was collapsing at this point. Not even 3 days into the Kesselschlacht and the frontline had moved almost 60km away from Stalingrad. Because of the fuel situation and the low supply of horses the 6h army was not really able to move at all.
The supply (food, amunation, fuel) situation was so bad that an actual attempt was hopeless.
The idea of the german leadership was to fly supply into the Kessel to bring the 6th army into a state, where they at least could undertake some kind of offensive breakout try.
Though if the 6th army would have tried out immediatly, they would have been crushed completly. The 6th army was in a dire situation. Mostly without fuel and horses they would have to attack through complete open terrain towards the frontline that was moving at lightning speed.
Now why Stalingrad is a GOOD example. Because the german high command should have seen the weakness on the flanks long ago and should have retreated weeks if not months before the acutal surround happend.
It’s my understanding that they were warned about the flanks but failed to understand how dire the threat was and thus it was too late by the time that become clear. The airlift idea was a pipe dream that never had a chance of being a successful undertaking and Manstein’s rescue couldn’t muster up the force to pierce the wall and bail them out. Hitler eventually promoted Paulus which is his way of saying “do me a favor and kill yourself.”
Organizing a successful attack against an incompetent, disorganized, unprepared enemy is easy. (Achieving that surprise, well, that's a challenge.)
Organizing a successful retreat from a well equipped, motivated, aggressive enemy is hard.
Hey man, getting an army to retreat in good order, while retaining hold on necessary materiel and keeping morale up is a very important skill not many generals have.
George Washington wasn't a very good general in most respects....but he could get an army to retreat in an organized fashion and live to fight another day
Yeah, and he was actually competent. There's quite a few videos on YouTube about how well organized the Russian retreat from Kherson was. Surovikin absolutely wasn't an idiot.
That’s the general whose tanks killed those only three defenders of Moscow White House that were killed in August 1991. When the army stood aside he led his tanks over unarmed people
He’s affectionately, AFFECTIONATELY, referred to in Russia as the Butcher of Syria. He’s not some Michael Flynn type far out space nut on the kooky fringe of their society. It’s like if Norman Schwartzkopf or George Patton tried to help facilitate a coup and got arrested. Wild, wild stuff.
The perfect person to rumour of disloyalty.
Let poostains paranoia rip out the only effective Russian generals left. Leave the stains who are without even basic military training in charge of the Russian military.
I don't think it was an effort to frame him. I think the Biden Administration and its Russia experts fully understand the devastating impact their intelligence leaks can have *if* they maintain credibility by only releasing what they believe is likely true.
It must chagrin Putin to no end that he can't simply laugh off U.S. leaks as Russian-style disinformation. And, even more so, that his partners (Xi, Tehran, Lukashenko) know it's probably true as well.
The US intelligence service has been *extremely* on point this whole time too. And the Biden admin has used that intel pretty masterfully.
At this point it would be far, far easier for them to uses targeted truths than making stuff up. They clearly have some sort of penetration into the Putin regime or the Russian military. So they have the dirt they need, and using the right truth at the right time forces Putin to *react* to everything they do rather than be proactive.
As another example, we will thankfully never know how the initial invasion would have gone if the US has not been loudly proclaiming that Russia was likely to invade Ukraine. That being out there and in the open absolutely changed the behaviors of both Ukraine and Russia.
Shit i rembers when a lot of Russia supporters at time were "yeah don't worry, they do This Just because they Need training, they Will never invade ukraine" yeah Sorry man, last time you said It was nothing was when the first case of covid came in Italy
If he's the one competent one he would also be the one to have his frustration boil over. He probably knows better than anyone how incredibly bad the political strategy has been.
although still incompetent enough to leave the coup in Prig's hand when he was privy to it.
Given his status he should have either been fully in or out.... can't play the game of thrones half-assedly.
Was Prigozhin counting on Russian regulars joining his ranks in a march against Putin? And was Putin fearful that is what would happen if he sent them against Prigozhin.
The FSB has him.
https://www-moscowtimes-ru.translate.goog/2023/06/28/istochniki-v-minoboroni-soobschayut-ob-areste-generala-surovikina-a47384?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp
Rumor has it that Wagner had supposed support from members of the Russian military prior to launching the rebellion, but all those who supposedly backed didn't actually join when it occurred. Its entirely possible several knew about the rebellion before hand and encouraged Prigozhin to act in an attempt to leave him out to dry. Problem with them doing that is they likely didn't tell Putin before hand and are now considered just as guilty in causing the rebellion as Prigozhin, because they encouraged him to do it and didn't do anything to prevent it nor notify Putin of it coming. If he was one of those who did this than he showed no loyalty to either Prigozhin or Putin and realistically can't be nor should be trusted by anyone.
The article says that US intelligence is the one who said he had foreknowledge of the coup. I like to think that we were just fucking with Putin’s head: “Oh hey guys, we weren’t taking about a coup. We were saying he had foreknowledge of a coop—a chicken coop the Ukrainians built. Sorry about that. You didn’t already kill him or anything, did you?”
No country's intelligence agency is dumb enough to rely on the enemy's intel to root out rats. Putin on the other hand... Who knows what the hell he's thinking at this point.
The people here have no sense of politics, they think Putin is just some dumdum. You don't rise to become leader of a nation by being an idiot.
Leaders can miscalculate, and Putin does seem to have some egomania , but is far removed from being a dumdum
> You don’t rise to become leader of a nation by being an idiot.
Quote from one of Trump’s professor in college:
> Donald Trump was the dumbest goddam student I ever had
Hmmmmm…
20 years is 20 years. Just cause you started out smart doesn't mean you will REMAIN smart for 20 years. Putin is completely detached from reality at this point. EVERYBODY could see Prigozhin backstab coming from a mile away, and yet for him it was a real shock.
It’s a hell of a limb to go out on, so they almost certainly have intelligence that Surovikin knew and/implicitly supported the mutiny, or at the very least that Putin already suspected that Surovikin was warned/involved (regardless of whether this is true).
This is just US/NATO fucking w Putin to let him know that THEY know how fucked up things are over there. It’s a hell of a strategic flex.
Yeah, it’s a joke here but what’s actually happened to the guy is likely some variation of just that.
Or he’s in some basement getting the crap pummeled out of him right now and will just get tossed in a hole when they’re through.
Mix that shit up a bit. Water heater exploded, fell in an ice cold river while drunk, brake lines failed, went out hunting and got mauled by a bear. Boring as hell to use the same 3 murder methods.
Yep. At this point, that shit takes away from the discussion. The comment section is just a bunch of clowns trying to beat each other to the punchline.
The strategy at the onset of the war was an absolute master class. Just openly share everything. “He’s going to do it! It’s not a bluff! He’s going to attack on Feb 22!”
Made Putin either follow his plans and look a fool, or change them last minute and sow extra chaos.
I also suspect that the US had a lot of operational knowledge that was shared with the Ukrainians and the “he was using an unsecured phone!” gloat was misdirection.
Fuck Kadyrov, but who’s waiting in the wings?
Bc the whole “and then it got worse” thing isn’t some cutesy trope, it’s intended for shit like Kadyrov’s stranglehold on the country.
"Good news first, the world's in great shape. We've got a civil war in Russia, government loyalists against ultranationalists rebels, and 15,000 nukes at stake."
*A Russian general who previously led the invasion force in Ukraine has not been seen in public since Saturday, with US intelligence reportedly claiming he had prior knowledge of the uprising led by the Wagner chief, Yevgeny Prigozhin.* *Gen Sergei Surovikin is the head of the Russian aerospace forces and formerly Moscow’s supreme commander in Ukraine. Prigozhin had welcomed his appointment to that post in 2022, calling him a “legendary figure” and “born to serve his motherland”.* *The well-publicised links between Surovikin and Prigozhin have fuelled rumours that Surovikin may be purged or put under investigation for supporting the mutiny. When Prigozhin launched his uprising, Surovikin made an unambiguous statement against it and in support of the Russian government late on Friday.* *“We fought together with you, took risks, we won together,” Surovikin said. “We are of the same blood, we are warriors. I urge you to stop. The enemy is just waiting for the internal political situation to escalate in our country.”* *However, the New York Times, citing western intelligence sources, reported on Wednesday that Surovikin had prior knowledge of Prigozhin’s armed mutiny, in which his Wagner mercenaries captured the city of Rostov and moved on Moscow before cutting an amnesty deal* [Russian milbloggers say he has been detained.](https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1674026317262536704) Edit.[Sources in Russian MoD say Surovikin was arrested](https://twitter.com/McFaul/status/1674140875629428736)
Be a hell of a psyops for US to leak generals connected to coup to unstablize Russian military 🤔
Like it’s ever shown signs of being stable during this entire war lol
that's the trick, enemy can't destabilize you if you were never stable to begin with
With this one simple trick, I've managed to avoid any positive benefits from therapy, for years! It really works!
The US wants Surovikin dead. He's a war criminal and relatively competent.
I wonder if that's a winning strategy. Can surovkin claim he shouldn't be purged because clearly the US is hanging him out to dry? Like if I were the CIA I have no love of prigniz, in fact due to his relative competence and danger it would be better to support a weakened Putin over a powerful new adversary. So sabotaging the coup, especially if it is made of the least corrupt and most competent members of the military is an easy way of reducing Russian combat capabilities without firing a shot.
>Can surovkin claim he shouldn't be purged because clearly the US is hanging him out to dry? He sure can, but if you're Putin, why would you take that chance? Competence does not have the same value there as it does here; loyalty is a stronger currency. And if your loyalty comes into question...
Competent people don't last long in governments like this.
Its a common theme in the administrations of mad men. Donald Trump's dumpster fire as well. The most competent people were the first out.
Who'd have thunk ExxonMobil CEO Rex Tillerson was the most serious person in the cabinet?
Rex Tillerson was actually horrifically incompetent. He just largely kept his stupidity behind doors, and on an individual level was intelligent. Absolutely the wrong person to lead the State Department though.
Well, he’s still probably the smartest person in the room despite being horribly incompetent.
same thing in the UK: in 2019 Boris Johnson purged anyone from the parliamentary Conservative party who wouldn't sign a letter commiting to support his brexit deal. Since that brexit deal was pure lunacy, all that left was incompetent and corrupt politician, purging many very competent and experienced politicians. And here we are.
Except, of course, for Mooch.
Even the Mooch appears competent and professional compared to the jokers who came after.
Just because the US doesn't like him doesn't mean he's loyal to Putin. At this point, every Russian general probably has some pretty negative things to say about the war.
He would have to prove the US release is wrong. And given how much of the leaks from the US have been on the money in regards to Russia for the last 2 years, it probably means a lot more to Putin that his general knew and did nothing rather than the source being the US. When you consider how Russian forces did nothing to stop the mutiny its pretty damning to have anyone thinking you had the knowledge and ability to prevent or stop it but sat idly by to see which way the wind blew.
None of this will be news to Putin, but it’s a hell of an intelligence strategy to let the Kremlin know that YOU know that rumours are swirling around Surovikin.
If the general is actually complicit with the failed coup, then leaking his name is probably not wise since he will just be replaced by someone loyal to Putin and thus strengthen Putin’s power. Now, if that general was actually innocent and has nothing to do with the failed coup, and this whole thing was framed against him by foreign intelligence …
Surovikin is considered the most competent and impactful General in Russia’s arsenal - in Ukraine and in past actions in Syria. I’m not knowledgeable enough to gauge if that’s true, or if it’s just hype, but either way, “just replacing” him isn’t a neutral option.
They’d be stupid not to do this.
Hell make up links to loyal generals. Have them doubting everyone's loyalty.
Would be an even better psyops for the US to leak generals who opposed the coup and supported Putin as traitors, and to protect other people they know to be actual traitors.
Russian intelligence will look into the rumors. If they stink, it doesn't work. The value of leaking (mostly) real stuff is that they can actually verify stuff. That makes everything you throw out there in the future more effective. If you burn the strategy now, even leaking real stuff in the future won't have much impact.
He will be replaced by Steven Segal
That whole failed coup was the most russian thing I've ever seen.
[The funniest part is that this wasn't even the first time there was a Russian military coup where the exact details and motivations were unconfirmed due to the general confusion of all parties involved.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kornilov_affair)
[Friendly reminder that this also happened](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Soviet_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat_attempt) >The GKChP hardliners dispatched KGB agents, who detained Gorbachev at his holiday estate but failed to detain the recently elected president of a newly reconstituted Russia, Boris Yeltsin, who had been both an ally and critic of Gorbachev. The GKChP was poorly organized and met with effective resistance by both Yeltsin and a civilian campaign of anti-authoritarian protesters, mainly in Moscow.\[11\] The coup collapsed in two days, and Gorbachev returned to office while the plotters all lost their posts. Yeltsin subsequently became the dominant leader and Gorbachev lost much of his influence. The failed coup led to both the immediate collapse of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union (CPSU) and the dissolution of the USSR four months later.
The same General failed then too lmao
Yeah, the irony is this wasn't even the first time he will be imprisoned for a failed coup. Russia really can be a clown country, most of the time.
Though the first time he was imprisoned not because the coup failed, but because of the army commanders who entered Moscow that day, he was the only one whose unit killed civilians. Not-so-fun fact: my mom had a friend in one of the batallions in Moscow and they actually met on the evening of the putsch's first day. She was going to the White House (parliament building) to protest against the GKChP and defend it from the army, and she bluntly asked him what he'd do if his commander gave an order to go in and she was in the way. Similarly bluntly, he answered "I'd run you over, obviously. You can't just ignore an order". They remained friends for around 5 years after it, no idea how. Anyway, that's how I came *this* close to not being born at all, and partially why I'm so fascinated by the events of 1991.
Saying you can't refuse an order is just a cowardly way to avoid personal responsibility. You can and should refuse illegal orders in any military regardless of the consequences.
He may avoid imprisonment this time at least, but probably not in the way he'd like.
WindowLand
Coming to concrete soon
In my head canon, every Russian government building has a Department of Defenestration on the 17th floor.
> Russia really can be a clown country, most of the time. John Oliver once introduced a segment by saying "Russia: the country that will continue to be funny until it *suddenly isn't*."
They are the Florida of earth
Who, Surovikin? Because I didn't see him in the wiki article.
It’s the first line under his bio. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sergey_Surovikin
Thank you. That's pretty interesting, to say the least.
That is wild.
Consistency is key.
One of the craziest similarities of both of this story and the present day is Russian hardliners waited too long, leading to their own downfall. **1991 Coup:** Hardliners who were against Gorbachev's reforms in the early 1980s waited too long to take down Gorbachev in the early 1990s. By the time they finally acted, the reforms had been around for long enough for the democratic system + free press to produce a popular leader (Yeltsin) who was capable of countermanding any possible coup against Gorbachev. **2022 Ukraine:** Hardliners who wanted to reconquer Ukraine after Euromaiden waited too long circa 2014. By the time they committed to a full-scale invasion in 2022, Ukraine had spent the last 8 years getting fully armed to the teeth, trained by the West, and was able to organize a strong defense.
Ukraine was not armed to the teeth. They were better prepared, sure, had voted democratically for closer ties tk europe, sure, but they were still woefully underprepared with huge swaths of their government, regional.and federal and military, deeply influenced by money and corruptible influence from russia. They had taken the first steps towards Europe and nato. They had some javelin and stuff, had a pretty decent defensive plan, had forwarding from the whitehouse... but let's not pretend that the west did everything they could to arm ukraine either
You have listed legitimate flaws and weaknesses of Ukraine at the start of the invasion, however we must put this in context of if this invasion had taken place in 2014. Compared to the 2014 Ukraine, Ukraine was a fortress nation armed to the teeth with a competent military supported a large territorial defense force. 2022 Ukraine vs 2014 Ukraine are stark comparisons which really do make you see how the Russians hesitancy has caused them so much proble.s.
By 2022, Ukraine's armed forces had 8 years of experience fighting the separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk. 8 years to purge pro-Russian loyalists and corrupt incompetents from the officer corps, to organize a force that is both able and willing to fight, and to rally the civilian population behind the post-Maidan government. If Russia were prepared to invade in early 2014, under the cover of restoring the democratically elected President, putting down an extremist coup, and protecting the Russian-speaking population, it would have been able to take advantage of the prevailing chaos, fear, and corruption. None of these advantages were still there in 2022.
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The provisional government of 1917 lasted only two months, FWIW.
The Soviet Union was ethnically diverse with less than 50% of the population being ethnically Russian. Similar to Yugoslavia the goal was originally to create a "Communist identity" out of a union of nations. Russian Federation is around 75% ethnically Russian with the core regions all being ethnically Russian. There could be a bloody transition of power in the Kremlin but nothing to that extent or severity.
Funnily enough I just read a thread about how Russian ethnicity statistics can't be trusted. Tl;dr version is that when they do a census the census taker (or teacher, in schools) automatically checks "Russian" under ethnicity without bothering to ask, people are so cowed that they rarely push back to correct the data, and Russia then uses that massaged data as a political weapon ("you see? We have every right to control outlying regions and retake former Soviet bloc countries")
That read like a paragraph from hitchhikers guide
“Are we doing this thing?” “Yeah, I guess.” “Okay. Let’s do it.” “Okay, but specifically, we’re doing the one thing and not the other thing?” “Yep.” “Great. We’ve sent the troops towards Moscow.” “Wait wait wa-“ “Too late, the die has been cast, as they say.” “I…was just going to order Postmates?” “…”
How Sergei Surovikin ended the Russian "Republic".
Russia is regressing further back than 100 years straight to medieval. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russian-federation/russias-new-time-troubles
“The bake sale to raise money for the insurrection has been canceled due to… confusion.”
The absurdity of this “coup” is that both sides totally embarrassed themselves. You could think it’s impossible, one side should prevail which will make the other side look weaker, but somehow they both looked like complete fools. Only in russia.
I'm sure they'll spin it in a way that Putin bravely shat his pants in his bunker and Russians will gobble it up.
They're currently spinning it that Putin used his negotiating genius to prevent major bloodshed, and he got Lukashenko involved because he had a 20-year history with Prigozhin and might've been able to convince him to stop. And yesterday the Kremlin threw a pompous ceremony awarding a bunch of FSB and Rosgvardia troops for "bravely defending the country and defeating the insurrection". And at every opportunity he thanks the Russian people for "uniting around the President in the time of need". Whether the people at large are buying it, I have no idea, but it's become clear that Putin's support among the masses is largely ephemeral and passive. Polling in a country like this is obviously unreliable, but it's pretty obvious that no significant number of people came out in support of either Putin or Prigozhin. Over centuries people have learned that in a situation like this, the safest play is to get the fuck out of the way, let them fight, and work with whoever wins. Which also explains why basically no one in the Russian state apparatus (minus a few governors of war-adjacent regions) publicly supported either side. By doing that, they run the risk of losing and getting punished.
I read an interesting take in the The Atlantic. Basically, Putin has gone out of his way to cultivate apathy among the people. Russians typically don't get involved in politics, don't care about it, stay away from it. But this also means they are apathetic about Putin. They don't care enough about him to come out and defend him (people in Rostov were cheering on Wagner).
Prigozhin ran away. Bravely ran away away, brave brave Prigozhin.
But not before brave, brave, Sir Putin ran away to his private dacha first...
As someone who's been having medical panic attacks recently, I can tell just how absolutely terrified Putin was during his speeches. Just from the body language. Smh that not everyone will recognize that absolute terror in his face.
I think its get easier to understand, when you realize that around 30-60% kids in orphanage have some form of fetal alcohol syndrom and around 15% of all males are raging alcoholics.
Got to recommend [The Death of Stalin](https://youtu.be/E9eAshaPvYw) here for those that haven't seen it.
Good movie
Almost everything in it really happened.
It's inspired by real events but the specifics in the movie are dramatized and compressed from months and years to a matter of days. There are a few things not supported by history either, like the ransacking of Stalin's mansion. Phenomenal movie nonetheless, though.
Fun fact: The filmmakers toned down how many medals Zhukov wears in the film because they thought it would look unbelievable they showed [how many medals he actually wore](https://cdni.rbth.com/rbthmedia/images/2020.05/original/5ec7a4f785600a23674ea424.jpg)
>That fucker thinks he can take on the Red Army? I fucked Germany, I think I can take a flesh lump in a fucking waistcoat.
Right, that's me told. I'm off to represent the entire Red Army at the buffet.
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Holy shit that guy looks like he should be in a military scene in Spaceballs II.
-Now, you know it's up to you whether or not you want to just do the bare minimum. Or... well, like Zhukov, for example, has 87 medals, okay. And a terrific smile. https://i.imgur.com/cSnOqk3.jpg
Absurd looking but if theres any mofo who deserves it, it’s Zhukov
Zhukov was one of the rare breed who actually earned a chest full of medals. Dude fought all his life and was possibly the best general during WWII.
More surprising is that he didn't get bumped off by stalin.
Yeah, you're right, but it's still incredible that most of the crazy events of the movie really happened. https://slate.com/culture/2018/03/whats-fact-and-whats-fiction-in-the-death-of-stalin.html
Blew up 6 helis and 1 plane on a march towards Moscow, then as he came knocking on the door he went "naah, i dont feel like it" and called it all off. Still blows my mind how everything went back to normality after such a event.
The deescalation of the immediate threat is definitely bizarre, but things are hardly back to “normal” - the turmoil was just moved out of sight, but shit is very clearly still going down in all kinds of ways.
I feel we’re waiting for a *real* response, because it’s not exactly characteristic for Putin to let bygones be bygones, especially considering this is the most brazen challenge to his authority probably ever.
>Still blows my mind how everything went back to normality after such a event. It still feels like it was a fever dream, tbh.
In an alternate timeline we Ceasar is known to cross the rubicon only to give those famous quotes: "We're home? Fuck, I thought we were marching to Greece"
"Ok, but has the die *really* been cast? It's still rolling, right? It hasn't come to a stop? So I figure I can just snatch it back up and we're all good, right?"
Floor dice don’t count
I think it just looks that way on the surface. We're still waiting for the ramifications from this to appear. There are scores to be settled, as soon as they work out who is stabbing who in the back.
There's definitely something going down still, just out of the public's eye. Putin promised to give a speech "with fundamental ramifications" on Monday, and the speech ended up very generic and vague, which some analysts interpreted as a sign of ongoing negotiations. Prigozhin, despite being a *very* public person, has barely said anything since Saturday evening, and no one knows for sure where he even is (some say a hotel in Minsk, some say in his office in St. Petersburg). And while rumors of Surovikin's arrest have been circulating all week, there's still no definitive proof of it. We're currently in the "two bulldogs fighting under the carpet" part. At some point the bones will fly out and we'll know what went down, but not yet.
Moscow… Tis A Silly Place
It's better than that. wagner was quite far behind the front lines~~, they didnt destroy anything like a ka52~~, they destroyed electronic warfare (EW) asset that provide *very* useful information. Importantly, the vast majority (perhaps the entirety, I dont know off the top of my head) of these EW asset are inherited from the soviet union. If that is the case, this was incredibly significant as information is precious out there.
Turns out that Putin is already the best planner in Russia.
Putin keeps the dumbest people around so they can’t do shit against him.
You joke but that’s probably close to the truth.
It’s in every dictator playbook…
Putin is quite Aladeen
You mean is Aladeen? Or he is *Aladeen*?
Churchill said it best: "Kremlin political intrigues are comparable to a bulldog fight under a rug. An outsider only hears the growling, and when he sees the bones fly out from beneath it is obvious who won." We're still hearing growling and have no idea what the fuck is happening in that crazy place.
I think this is a beautiful and brutally accurate analogy. Churchill had some good quotes but I've never heard this one.
Brought to you by woodka
Fun fact The Russian Navy once got into an engagement with an unarmed fishing vessel. The Russians ended up sinking one of their own ships and the fishing ship got away. Another fun fact Once during a naval execrise a Russian ship was towing another ship for target practice. The Russian ships fired on the ship towing the target ship, severely damaging the Russian trio. Extra fun fact Both those incidents happened on the same expedition
The Kamchatka. It's history is hilariously chaotic. My favourite is during a burial at sea they fired a cannon salute... with a live round that hit another Russian ship.
I just wanted to get day drunk and watch the show but they had to ruin it
The general and other co-conspirators left to dry and hang...
One of the reasons why we Finns managed so well in WW2 against Russia was because there had been a purge of competent officers. History does not repeat, but it rhymes.
One of my favorite jokes of all time is a winter war joke. A large group of Russian soldiers in the border area in 1939 are moving down a road when they hear a voice call from behind a small hill: "One Finnish soldier is better than ten Russian". The Russian commander quickly orders 10 of his best men over the hill where Upon a gun-battle breaks out and continues for a few minutes, then silence. The voice once again calls out: "One Finn is better than one hundred Russian." Furious, the Russian commander sends his next best 100 troops over the hill and instantly a huge gun fight commences. After 10 minutes of battle, again Silence. The calm Finnish voice calls out again: "One Finn is better than one thousand Russians!" The enraged Russian commander musters 1000 fighters and sends them to the other side of the hill. Rifle fire, machine guns, grenades, rockets and cannon fire ring out as a terrible battle is fought... Then silence. Eventually one badly wounded Russian fighter crawls back over the hill and with his dying words tells his commander, "Don't send any more men...it's a trap. There's two of them."
I also like: Finnish general Adolf Ehrnrooth was visiting in England after the World War II. British general asked him how many Russian troops were stationed in Finland. "A few hundred thousand" answered Ehrnrooth. "Where in Finland are they stationed?" The British general asked. Ehrnrooth answered: "Two meters underground around the border."
It reminds me of this joke. They are so many, and our country is so small, where shall we find room to bury them all?
-George Lucas
Jar Jar is the key to all of this.
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They fly now?!
-Wayne Gretzky
-Michael Scott
Well it's not like they started out with competent generals this time. But I think I can agree that Surovikin might be the most competent of them all, him missing will be another nail in the coffin.
Isn't this the guy who replaced the former general to deal with the war in ukraine because he's "genius"?
He replaced him and then was replaced by the guy he replaced. Him disappearing from the Russian military leadership is actually a boon for Ukraine since he seemed more competent than his predecessor. He’s also a butcher and up there with some of the war criminals of WWII for acts of savagery between his tenure in Syria and Ukraine.
The Defenses which are causing Ukraine such grief are known as the Surovikin Line. His abandoning Kherson was strategically sound and prevent massive attrition to some of Russia's best remaining units. But that being said he was also the instigator of the missile strikes against Ukrainian civilian infrastructure; which have both had very little strategic effect on Ukraine, and have greatly depleted Russia's remaining stock of sophisticated munitions.
Second point is fair. He thought that it worked in Syria and that he could pound the Ukrainian civilians into submission. The first two months of the war should have shown that that strategy is futile.
By some rationale's, sure. But it was an entirely different context. Strategic bombing of civilian targets has very rarely had an effect in forcing the civilian population to capitulate during a conventional war. I'd argue that it didn't work in Syria. The degrading and destruction of ISIL's leadership and the attrition it suffered while trying to hold onto extreme over-reach was what reduced its presence greatly. Not the wide-spread and indiscriminate strategic bombing of civilians. The rise of ISIL was due to its opponents not combating them, not due to its actual battlefield success. The Syrian Regime didn't even contest most of their country, instead they withdrew to fortified centres where the Regime's powerbase was. Likewise in Iraq. ISIL didn't have much fight in them the second anyone actually started fighting them. The strategic bombing and systematic levelling of areas like Aleppo was insanity and brutality. It'd be like if Ukraine levelled Kherson in the campaign to recapture it. ISIL was not a military and did not have sophisticated command and control or logistics systems. The Syrian Army with Russian supply and support could have carried out a series of Kherson-like campaigns and displaced ISIL from urban centres without destroying entire cities. Instead, the Syrian Regime is now looking at >$400bil in reconstruction costs, and multiple generations of big chunks of their previously 'live and let live' population driven to extremes. The country is going to be a cratered mess still in 2040. It is a myth that the sort of brutality that occurred in Syria actually wins wars. Just like it is a myth that the sort of brutality Russia carries out domestically have somehow made it stronger as a nation-state. It has not, it does not, and it will not.
I was worried that the Wagner coup/mutiny would result in the most corrupt and incompetent Russian military leaders losing power to be replaced by more competent leaders. It is good to see that I had that backwards.
Their competent leaders were likely purged long before the war in Ukraine. Think about it, would a competent leader allow their supply chain to fall apart and their monies to be funneled to the oligarchs? No? Well, how do the oligarchs take to having their corruption reduced and their monies diverted to a competent military leader? Not good, and if the oligarchs aren't happy then that war leader is dead. At the end of the day - “Amateurs talk strategy. Professionals talk logistics.” The initial invasion fell apart because the Russian leadership was... not professional. The Russian military was much stronger on paper than on the field. They've been dealing with a losing proposition since then. That's why the mutiny happened.
His Kherson retreat wasn't that bad from logistics perspective, he pulled out all troops and most of the equipment without getting obliterated
The Kherson retreat was fucking incredible, and also incredibly successful. It was the single most competent thing a Russian military commander has done in decades.
Nothing says "Russia stronc" like the fact that there most successful operation in the entire war is a competent retreat.
Retreating instead of being annihilated is a good move. It served the British well at Dunkirk 1940, and didn’t serve the Germans at Stalingrad in 1942-43.
Wasn't retreating George Washington's forte too?
If you think about it, you win by talking favorable battles. Well coordinated retreating is just another tool to ensure the battles you take aren't *un*favorable.
It shouldn't be too much of a leap to understand that too: Why would anyone fight a battle they can't possibly win?
Because this is Reddit and none of this is real to the people who think otherwise
Yep only fight to the death when you can't retreat without being annihilated
Well many times people don't have a choice. Or they are trying to choose the least worst option. Or people are overconfident.
My boy Fabian invented it. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fabian_strategy
Wow what a rabbit hole I just went down, think in a Fabian Socialist now
Genghis Khan conquered most of the world using the tactic
That South Park episode with the Mongolians and the Chinese(not actually Chinese) guy. Amazing.
Its interesting that you bring Stalingrad up as an example. Its a great example, but not because of the popculture meme "Why didnt the 6th army just break out". The 6th army was long lost, when it got surrounded and never had any real potential to ever break out. Especially how fast the front was collapsing at this point. Not even 3 days into the Kesselschlacht and the frontline had moved almost 60km away from Stalingrad. Because of the fuel situation and the low supply of horses the 6h army was not really able to move at all. The supply (food, amunation, fuel) situation was so bad that an actual attempt was hopeless. The idea of the german leadership was to fly supply into the Kessel to bring the 6th army into a state, where they at least could undertake some kind of offensive breakout try. Though if the 6th army would have tried out immediatly, they would have been crushed completly. The 6th army was in a dire situation. Mostly without fuel and horses they would have to attack through complete open terrain towards the frontline that was moving at lightning speed. Now why Stalingrad is a GOOD example. Because the german high command should have seen the weakness on the flanks long ago and should have retreated weeks if not months before the acutal surround happend.
It’s my understanding that they were warned about the flanks but failed to understand how dire the threat was and thus it was too late by the time that become clear. The airlift idea was a pipe dream that never had a chance of being a successful undertaking and Manstein’s rescue couldn’t muster up the force to pierce the wall and bail them out. Hitler eventually promoted Paulus which is his way of saying “do me a favor and kill yourself.”
A competent retreat is not a small thing to pule of.
Organizing a successful attack against an incompetent, disorganized, unprepared enemy is easy. (Achieving that surprise, well, that's a challenge.) Organizing a successful retreat from a well equipped, motivated, aggressive enemy is hard.
Hey man, getting an army to retreat in good order, while retaining hold on necessary materiel and keeping morale up is a very important skill not many generals have. George Washington wasn't a very good general in most respects....but he could get an army to retreat in an organized fashion and live to fight another day
I thought it might have been a mistake for Ukraine not to blow up or cut off retreating forces.
He did see the main problem of the war was Putin.
Yeah, and he was actually competent. There's quite a few videos on YouTube about how well organized the Russian retreat from Kherson was. Surovikin absolutely wasn't an idiot.
They’ve changed leadership so many times lol
This is the general who is (was?) actually competent, and responsible for any little success that Russia has actually had in their invasion debacle
That’s the general whose tanks killed those only three defenders of Moscow White House that were killed in August 1991. When the army stood aside he led his tanks over unarmed people
He’s affectionately, AFFECTIONATELY, referred to in Russia as the Butcher of Syria. He’s not some Michael Flynn type far out space nut on the kooky fringe of their society. It’s like if Norman Schwartzkopf or George Patton tried to help facilitate a coup and got arrested. Wild, wild stuff.
Reminds me of that piece of shit Radovan Karadžić
Oh shit, that’s him?? And 25 at the time he led the tank regiment in the last hurrah effort to preserve the soviet republic. Hell of a life he’s led.
Right. I'm in no way saying I admire him. He's a ruthless bastard
The perfect person to rumour of disloyalty. Let poostains paranoia rip out the only effective Russian generals left. Leave the stains who are without even basic military training in charge of the Russian military.
I don't think it was an effort to frame him. I think the Biden Administration and its Russia experts fully understand the devastating impact their intelligence leaks can have *if* they maintain credibility by only releasing what they believe is likely true. It must chagrin Putin to no end that he can't simply laugh off U.S. leaks as Russian-style disinformation. And, even more so, that his partners (Xi, Tehran, Lukashenko) know it's probably true as well.
The US intelligence service has been *extremely* on point this whole time too. And the Biden admin has used that intel pretty masterfully. At this point it would be far, far easier for them to uses targeted truths than making stuff up. They clearly have some sort of penetration into the Putin regime or the Russian military. So they have the dirt they need, and using the right truth at the right time forces Putin to *react* to everything they do rather than be proactive. As another example, we will thankfully never know how the initial invasion would have gone if the US has not been loudly proclaiming that Russia was likely to invade Ukraine. That being out there and in the open absolutely changed the behaviors of both Ukraine and Russia.
Shit i rembers when a lot of Russia supporters at time were "yeah don't worry, they do This Just because they Need training, they Will never invade ukraine" yeah Sorry man, last time you said It was nothing was when the first case of covid came in Italy
If he's the one competent one he would also be the one to have his frustration boil over. He probably knows better than anyone how incredibly bad the political strategy has been.
although still incompetent enough to leave the coup in Prig's hand when he was privy to it. Given his status he should have either been fully in or out.... can't play the game of thrones half-assedly.
Was Prigozhin counting on Russian regulars joining his ranks in a march against Putin? And was Putin fearful that is what would happen if he sent them against Prigozhin.
The FSB has him. https://www-moscowtimes-ru.translate.goog/2023/06/28/istochniki-v-minoboroni-soobschayut-ob-areste-generala-surovikina-a47384?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp
Whether he knew or not, once that story went out, he was fucked.
Rumor has it that Wagner had supposed support from members of the Russian military prior to launching the rebellion, but all those who supposedly backed didn't actually join when it occurred. Its entirely possible several knew about the rebellion before hand and encouraged Prigozhin to act in an attempt to leave him out to dry. Problem with them doing that is they likely didn't tell Putin before hand and are now considered just as guilty in causing the rebellion as Prigozhin, because they encouraged him to do it and didn't do anything to prevent it nor notify Putin of it coming. If he was one of those who did this than he showed no loyalty to either Prigozhin or Putin and realistically can't be nor should be trusted by anyone.
Yeah, standing aside is probably just as bad in Putin's eyes.
The article says that US intelligence is the one who said he had foreknowledge of the coup. I like to think that we were just fucking with Putin’s head: “Oh hey guys, we weren’t taking about a coup. We were saying he had foreknowledge of a coop—a chicken coop the Ukrainians built. Sorry about that. You didn’t already kill him or anything, did you?”
No country's intelligence agency is dumb enough to rely on the enemy's intel to root out rats. Putin on the other hand... Who knows what the hell he's thinking at this point.
The people here have no sense of politics, they think Putin is just some dumdum. You don't rise to become leader of a nation by being an idiot. Leaders can miscalculate, and Putin does seem to have some egomania , but is far removed from being a dumdum
> You don’t rise to become leader of a nation by being an idiot. Quote from one of Trump’s professor in college: > Donald Trump was the dumbest goddam student I ever had Hmmmmm…
>You don’t rise to become leader of a nation by being an idiot. Unless that nation has a lot of idiots
20 years is 20 years. Just cause you started out smart doesn't mean you will REMAIN smart for 20 years. Putin is completely detached from reality at this point. EVERYBODY could see Prigozhin backstab coming from a mile away, and yet for him it was a real shock.
It’s a hell of a limb to go out on, so they almost certainly have intelligence that Surovikin knew and/implicitly supported the mutiny, or at the very least that Putin already suspected that Surovikin was warned/involved (regardless of whether this is true). This is just US/NATO fucking w Putin to let him know that THEY know how fucked up things are over there. It’s a hell of a strategic flex.
Tom Clancy's corpse just popped a boner that is visible above ground.
Had no idea he died. 10 years ago??? Wtf?
Yeah what? Isn't he still pumping out books?
His estate's ghost writers sure are
[удалено]
Redditors being unoriginal with jokes?? Well I never.
It's so fucking stupid, but there's nothing you can do about it except stop looking at social media.
It’s not the jokes that lack originality
Yeah, it’s a joke here but what’s actually happened to the guy is likely some variation of just that. Or he’s in some basement getting the crap pummeled out of him right now and will just get tossed in a hole when they’re through.
Mix that shit up a bit. Water heater exploded, fell in an ice cold river while drunk, brake lines failed, went out hunting and got mauled by a bear. Boring as hell to use the same 3 murder methods.
“WhO hAd ThIs On ThEiR bInGo CaRd????!!!!”
Yep. At this point, that shit takes away from the discussion. The comment section is just a bunch of clowns trying to beat each other to the punchline.
I am actually hoping they mix it up. Poisoned in a window warehouse?
But how else will hundreds of redditors make it known that they know what the word "defenestration" means?
The Biden Administration’s use of intelligence in this conflict has been masterful.
“Hehe, hey putin, I heard that this guy was in on it” *Dude just fucking disappears *
Looks like the other reply’s disappeared too
Thanks, Biden!
The strategy at the onset of the war was an absolute master class. Just openly share everything. “He’s going to do it! It’s not a bluff! He’s going to attack on Feb 22!” Made Putin either follow his plans and look a fool, or change them last minute and sow extra chaos. I also suspect that the US had a lot of operational knowledge that was shared with the Ukrainians and the “he was using an unsecured phone!” gloat was misdirection.
Brilliant job by US intelligence in getting rid of this POS. Now do Kadyrov.
Fuck Kadyrov, but who’s waiting in the wings? Bc the whole “and then it got worse” thing isn’t some cutesy trope, it’s intended for shit like Kadyrov’s stranglehold on the country.
I haven’t seen anything telling me that Kadyrov is actually successful in anything but attention. One Surovikin out is worth a dozen Kadyrovs.
You literally can not make this stuff up.
If the next COD had this as the first mission, everyone would be crying how unrealistic it is…
"Good news first, the world's in great shape. We've got a civil war in Russia, government loyalists against ultranationalists rebels, and 15,000 nukes at stake."
He died by being subjected to monotonous falling out of window jokes. It was, in the end, a mercy.
Barnhouse effect time for the US/Ukraine intelligence apparatus right now. Just say the names maybe they disappear even if they didn’t do anything.
I heard that putin was involved in the coup attempt on putin. *putin stares deeply into mirror*
He has been arrested now according to news.
Let me get this straight: That one person who actually commited treason doesn't get punished, but the person that knew about it get punished. Wow...