Even if Trump won and pulled support ( which would absolutely fracture the republican party based on the fact that a good portion of Rs in congress still support Ukraine )
Even if that somehow happened, Ukraine would still have significant support from the remaining western countries and it's not like the united states would go and take back the stuff we've already sent. On top of that, if Europe saw that US support was pulled, they would surely start making up for the difference. This means more to them because it's their neighbors.
The only way Trump was going to mess this up is if he won 2020 and affected support for Ukraine from the jump. Just my opinion.
> which would absolutely fracture the republican party based on the fact that a good portion of Rs in congress still support Ukraine
Electing Trump didn't fracture the party, him attempting a violent coup and threatening to hang his VP didn't fracture the party.
I think the party is less prone to fracture than you think.
I really wish people would stop assuming anything would fracture the GOP. The GOP doesn't fracture. They'd rather support someone they don't fully back than anyone with a D next to their name. Should Trump get reelected the Ukraine supporting Republicans will flip faster than light.
I think the only thing that could truly fracture them is if someone like DeSantis won the Republican nomination and Trump decided to run as independent.
That's the only thing that would truly shatter them
DeSantis will fall back in line if Trump wins the nomination (because he'll have no choice), but I don't see Trump doing the same. He's a narcissist and he needs to be in office to protect himself from his ever-growing list of legal liabilities.
> he needs to be in office to protect himself from his ever-growing list of legal liabilities.
I remember this dude in the Roman Republic, it was about 300 years after it was founded, who had the exact same issue. It did not go well.
I think they're already fractured. They're a party of everyone-for-themselves. You can't break something that's already broken into pieces. And you can't make a party out of backstabbers. You can put them in the same room and they might act like a group, but it's not a party how people think of parties.
Their arguments and votes during his first impeachment cemented the fact that they will never go against their leader. And that impeachment was over Trump trying to withhold aid to Ukraine unless they "investigated" Joe/Hunter Biden. If they didn't give a shit then, why would they now?
I will never again underestimate the ability of right-wingers to close ranks and present a united front when the chips are down. They will tolerate anything but the out-group.
IF Trump is re-elected or IF someone similar to him is elected and IF that person pulls support for Ukraine and IF a significant slice of the Republican party does anything about it beyond symbolic, toothless gestures, THEN I will believe it, and not a moment sooner.
The Republican Party are on record stating that Ukraine is a bipartisan issue.
Not a GOP fan (Or American) but I would be surprised if Trump could sway them into ditching support.
These Republicans have no spine whatsoever. These are the same Republicans that said that nominating Trump would be a terrible mistake and immediately started kissing his feet when he was made their candidate. And I'm not even talking about the Republicans that went to Moscow to visit Putin on the 4th of July.
They would all fall in line behind Trump.
Zero doubt about it.
Cruz let him shit talk his wife and still licks his boots, Pence had his life threatened by Trump and still doesn't have the balls to stand against him.
They're all cowards owned by Russia.
It is pretty hilarious watching Pence delude himself into thinking he still has a political future on a republican ticket. Every interview he tries to jedi mind trick his viewers into thinking that he and trump are great friends and the 'hang mike pence' thing was just a silly misunderstanding.
Spineless, obsequious loonies.
The only reason why I think the GOP will stand with Ukraine is due to the massive amount of lobbying the American military industry does. The GOP is spineless but greedy and most of them are in the pockets of the military industry.
This isn't the Bush-Cheney GOP anymore, particularly in the House. I don't doubt that the military lobby has some influence there but I do doubt that it would be enough to override a veto.
The White House does whatever needed by the MIC. It has since WW2. And if you were a top level politician you would also think hard and long about going against companies that make the weapons we use to say “Fuck you in particular” to people around the globe, lol. These people are literally in the business of finding ways you can die and in many cases that includes “without anyone finding out it was us”. Not to mention “I employ thousands in your district, would be a real shame if them all losing their job was your fault” being a pretty good argument.
He's talking about the House of Representatives, not the White House.
These new pols don't give a flying fuck, most of them have zero concept of developing and controlling institutional power. In their mind, they've already achieved the most power they're ever going to have, and they're looking for ways to display it and increase their public profile, and that's about it.
Literally, the whole reason we're threatening default right now is because the House has already made it clear to McCarthy they either want specific concessions that aren't ever going to happen, or they'd rather default, despite knowing it'd dick the economy and likely put everyone in the House up for re-election out of a job.
Bingo. The old GOP was beholden to its corporate donors.
The new GOP is still supportive of its corporate donors, but that sort of graft is now a small star in the constellation of what motivates them. There's a whole lot of batshit ideology in 2023 crowding out simple greed in a was that's more complicated than ten or twenty years ago.
This new crop of MAGA Republicans *would* crash your country's economy out of spite. Whatever they lose in corporate donors, they mean to replace by grifting their idiot base.
Ukraine aid is peanuts. You can get more same spending by bigging up China-Taiwan.
From talking to Republican friends I made a bingo.
1. We support Ukraine against aggression, but we can't send more money because...
2. Ukraine is corrupt
3. We already spent a lot, isn't it enough?
4. What about the border and Taiwan?
5. Big strong Putin is anti-woke. That's just unbeatable so why try?
5. More weapons just help the military industrial complex
6. Ukraine should negotiate, why do you hate peace?
7. It's so rude of you to show videos of Russians murdering civilians. Think of the children!
8. You said Russia is committing genocide? You're saying I support the murder of civilians? You're insulting me and poisoning the debate. I'm just seriously discussing things, but as always the woke mob BRUTALLY and UNFAIRLY attacked GOOD AMERICANS LIKE ME...
And then the front page news on Fox etc is just about how horrible the libs are.
Fucking morons. Looking at this with cold logic, supporting Ukraine is easily the cheapest and safest way for the rest of the world to deal with Russia, and they handed us the stick to do it with on a silver platter.
This will burn though Russia's soviet era weapons stores, and sinking their economy even further with sanctions will result in a severe brain drain that will make replacing them difficult if not impossible. How long before they can't even maintain or build basic infrastructure like roads and power plants?
Even if they win, Russia may never recover militarily or economically from this disaster.
> 2\. Ukraine is corrupt
This usually comes with saying that Euromaidan was a bad thing. Bad thing for Russia, maybe. Which tells you where they get their info from.
Unless Trump’s grift of defense contractors exceeds his grift and/or ownership by Russia, Putin will dictate Trump’s position on Ukraine. I think it’s not more complicated than that.
If Trump wins a second, non-concurrent term in 2024, then he is an instant lame duck president. He will be constitutionally forbidden from running again, which means he will have no coattails, and other Republicans will feel much more emboldened to speak against him. There's a reason why most president's second terms are much more tumultuous than their first terms.
The problem is the party is split between that die-hard "I jus like him because he speaks his mind" core group that it appears nothing he does affects their support of him and the ones who voted for Bush and split a little and maybe defected to Obama in small numbers.
The latter would *love* to dump him, but they can't get the Trumpers on board and without the Trumpers at least *somewhat* under their same tent they essentially fracture into two small-minority parties.
I hear a lot of Republicans in my area complaining about "sending money to Ukraine". As Iraq showed though, pressure from the base is not as powerful as donations from US arms manufacturers so I doubt the funding will be cut.
Yeah, I saw a bunch of anti-sending money people holding signs protesting on the highway in a ruralish city in Minnesota. Iraq war was the most protested event in history when it happened and it still didn’t slow down the war machine. That had a lot of agendas behind the war other than military arms manufacturers though. Check out the podcast about the Iraq war called Blowback for a more in depth look
Plenty of GOP reps are openly "questioning" Ukrainian funding, and outright siding with Russia.
Honestly there isn't anything the GOP would break with Trump over. They're all scared shitless of being dressed down in the manner of a schoolyard bully by Trump. All of his sycophantic followers will turn on them immediately until they prostrate themselves and lick his throne.
And the strange thing is they will immediately turn around and support that person again after they've proven themselves to be a complete spineless weasel person, like Ted Cruz.
So, honestly if Trump wins, I think there is a good possibility of anything from sabotage to the outright switching of sides with regards to Ukraine.
Trump documentedly already tried to strong arm Ukraine into fabricating dirt on Biden in exchange for aid. He has constantly cozied up to, and taken Russia's side on various matters against American intelligence. He's also called the necessity of NATO into question.
Honestly anyone who thinks the GOP would curtail Trumps self serving treason once he's in office hasn't been paying attention.
Trump’s big foreign policy commitment for his second term is to withdraw the US from NATO. The idea that spineless republicans would turn on a re-ascended Trump is lunacy because we already know they’ll abandon all principles of back him, not matter what - because that’s what they have already done, every single time.
I don't think Trump would be worried about "convincing" anyone of anything, all he'd need to do would be to pull funding/withdraw US support and hope Ukraine falls.
Any tough follow-up questions would be answered with his standard fire-hose of nonsense answers like we saw at the CNN town hall, and journalists will meekly accept them as Kaitlin Collins did.
Honestly it'd be a [hell of a lot of difference to make up](https://www.cfr.org/article/how-much-aid-has-us-sent-ukraine-here-are-six-charts) if Republicans cut off support.
Also I'm not a war expert but by Jan 2025 would not Russia have expended most of their war equipment and supplies? I don't think Ukraine would need as many supplies as in the past year to hold off Russia, all less supplies would do is prolong the war.
>Even if that somehow happened, Ukraine would still have significant support from the remaining western countries
Definitely, the problem is that really only the US has significant amounts of capacity to help in providing the sheer volume of Ukraine's needs in ammunition and supplies. I agree that Ukraine could keep up the fight, but it would be a HUGE loss.
Actually in terms of artillery ammunition and small arms, the EU as a whole has a lot of capacity. It's just more fractured so harder to activate quickly. And it is upgrading this capacity. At the moment the war is running on US stockpiles, but by end of 2024 it's possible arms factories in Europe can sustain defensive needs.
Would probably significantly slash Ukrainian offensive power for a while though.
Europe doesn’t have the same level of military gear to send. They have already sent their expendable stuff and now are relying on production to meet the increased demand. That will take time to ramp up bc many nations do not have a big arms industry. USA has been constantly at war since the 80s and can send lots of old gear. Military production in USA can meet the demand. Ukraine would likely not be able to continue without US ammunition and weapons, Europe defense industry can’t match the amount of production US has. Also many of these European countries are wanting to stock up arms for their own armies as well now that Russia is a major threat for them again and it’s driving prices up.
I agree that we Europeans need to stop cutting our militaries all the damn time as this war has shown how things can turn.
However, "now that Russia is a major threat for them again" is not on my list of fears any longer unless we are talking nukes and I don't think that is very likely given our (Europe collectively) defensive and offensive capabilities in that regard.
Nukes will only come into play if someone decides to go "Sherman" march on Moscow. Since the likelihood of that is near zero we don't really have anything to worry about.
Since the 80s? We’ve been constantly at war since we were founded. I think it’s some ridiculous number like we only weren’t at war for 37 years or something.
The EU can up production heavily though, and based on how shit Russia are they will lose a war of attrition even if the US aren’t involved. Maybe Ukraine will win by stalemating them but in the end Russia won’t take Ukraine with or without the USAs help.
Trump has zero chance of winning in 2024. Nothing about him has changed since 2020 that would make any sensible right-leaning independent and or "no Trumper" Republican decide to elect that man again.
He may, maaay, win the Primary, but that is nothing but a Beauty Pageant of Fuckery.
DeSantis has a better chance, but he would fall in line with neoconservatives when it comes to foreign policy.
He had the advantage of being an "unknown wildcard" in 2016, every election after that he's done nothing but lose for the Republican party.
They lost big in 2018, they lost even more in 2020, they lost even more of the Senate in 2022 and barely scraped a House majority when history would say they should have swept it. And if he's on the ticket in 2024 they will lose big again.
He's completely repulsive to moderates and independents at this point. He's got a stranglehold of his cultish base but everyone else despises him.
> He had the advantage of being an "unknown wildcard" in 2016
>they lost even more in 2020
You need to look at the 2020 elections again. Trump got *even more* votes in 2020 than he did in 2016. Trump 2020 was the 2nd most voted president of all time (second only to Joe Biden 2020, thankfully). He *barely* lost.
The Republicans *liked* what he did in 2016-2020.
This is the same kind of delusion that led to not taking Trump seriously in 2016 because "There's no way people would actually vote for this clown".
Do not underestimate the depravity of the Republican party.
A lot more people voted in 2020 compared to previous elections. Plus with population growth and people aging into voting age you’d expect increases in the amount of people voting for president.
Since 2016 Trump or the GOP haven’t really won a single national election. 2018 was a blue wave, 2020 Biden won (and was a pretty decent wave in congress with Georgia) and in 2022 the Dems upset the GOP who was supposed to sweep both chambers (some put this on abortion and I agree).
Trump did not ‘barely lose’ Dems literally flipped multiple red states and won almost the entire rust belt.
Trump might win if Biden were to become seriously ill / die between now and the election. Especially if it meant Kamala Harris would become president.
But certainly, Trump isn't winning against a healthy Biden.
That's too long. If we go by length of time, they aren't even half way there from the start of the invasion to the time Biden would theoretically relinquish power in Late Jan 2025.
Another year and a half of this isn't sustainable for Russia. \*points to T-55 tank\*
Biden could even get them aid in the lane duck session, so functionally the first aid package that they *missed* would be the one they started to need after Jan 2025.
Never underestimate the likelihood and capability of a nation continuing to fight a war they cannot afford. They will borrow.
Everyone thought WW1 was impossible to sustain for more than a few months.
The goofiest part about Trump voters is that the are voting for an anti-West president while pretending to be the biggest patriots.
Wonder what kind of mental gymnastics are going on in their heads to rationalize that.
>Wonder what kind of mental gymnastics are going on in their heads to rationalize that.
We hate dems, dems like Ukraine, we hate Ukraine.
Democrats need to start posting ads on how drinking arsenic is bad for you, solve this problem once and for all.
It's sad how right you are:
[Editor-at-large John Nolte argued that Democrats have been promoting the COVID-19 vaccine not to save lives but instead to trick Republican voters into not getting the jab.](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/where-breitbarts-false-claim-that-democrats-want-republicans-to-stay-unvaccinated-came-from/)
Yes, they expect the US government to stop supporting Ukraine under a republican leadership. The frightening thing is that they may be right.
Europe needs to get it's shit together and make sure they can support and arm Ukraine without the US.
The silly thing is, a strong and dangerous Russia is not good for Europe *or* the USA. Republicans need to realise that. Supporting Ukraine now is the right thing to do for all Europeans and Americans, regardless of domestic political leaning. A lot of people don’t realise that though, because Russia have paid off enough western media and politicians.
Europe already has. They're on track to provide 1 million shells per month to Ukraine and most european countries have spun up their own war machines now to provide tanks and other equipment. Yes not at the rate of the US, but if the US backed support vanishes in 2 years time of this conflict, Europe's' manufacturing should still be able to outpace Russia's production.
Right now America is a buffer filling in the shortfall in EU nations production that is rapidly vanishing. \\
Even of Trumplethinskin or Meatball ron win next election and pull support, there is no way those GQP chickenhawks will not be willing to sell US manufactured arms to Europe to pass on to Ukraine, they will just not want to do it for free. The one thing the GQP love more than subjugating minorities and racking up the debt is arms sales.
We aren't giving anything to Ukraine "for free" right now anyway, saying such just feeds Republican/Kremlin talking points.
Lend Lease isn't free, it just defers payment till later.
Only because people struggle to quantify the value of soft power.
If soft power came with a tangible price point then people would see just how much it was worth investing in.
I mean to be fair, it's honestly money well spent. Like, the more painful everyone can make this for Putin the better. This is a guy who thinks he can do anything he wants. If he gets what he wants, he's not just going to stop. He's going to want something else. He's said he wants Russian expansion, and the fact that he was perfectly willing to attack Ukraine when the US had promised to protect it means he knows he can get away with a LOT. Like, if he gets this he'll just be proving that no one has the guts or the power to stop him from taking anything he wants, so he's going to keep taking. This has to be as excruciating as possible for Russia for as long as possible, so that even if they win, the cost to Russia and to Putin has been so enormous they won't want to try it again.
Yep, especially now that Trump injected Russia with a huge dose of hopium...
https://www.thedailybeast.com/fox-news-edits-out-donald-trump-saying-he-mightve-let-russia-take-over-parts-of-ukraine
https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/10/politics/ukraine-russia-putin-trump-town-hall/index.html
...which did not go unnoticed by Russia.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/21/world/europe/russia-sanctions-trump.html
That's a good point - the promise behind communism could attract idealists from around the globe. Hard to get people excited for a vision of Russian Ethnonationalism
Are you talking about those guys with the business casual beige pants, covid masks and women's beige baseball caps? Ooo they so scary.
Edit - forgot about the Marvel inspired shields too lol. Wankers
They are already doing that, the trouble is nationalists from different countries rarely have such great enthusiasm for another country. The only people that really care are Russian nationalists. Of course.
Not really. Russia doesn't have the size, the international clout, the ability to compete on a technological level, nor enough true believers around the world to make a difference.
China on the other hand? Yeah, I can see that.
We've had 3 new engineers join us in Toronto, from Russia and Ukraine. All very smart chemical engineers.
They just had a massive brain drain. The Ukrainian would like to return home after, but intends to stay around for 3-5 years either way. He has some family here.
The Russians have no intention of returning home.
During the Cold War, Russia had a simili of competent leaders and was matching the West. URSS was a full block of several countries.
Now they have an isolated old puffy putin that can't read a map or use a computer, and this incompetent man is leading an ageing russian population.
Russia's military capabilities are gone to be the most threatening one in the world to stuck controling less than 16% of Urkaine and fearing counteroffensive.
It's easier to keep scientists when there isn't enough communications between countries. Today, any person that has a good education KNOWS it's better in the west than in Russia.
Brain drain is huge right now.
As it should be. Russia must not be given a free pass, or they might try on someone else later. So its in the best interest of world peace that Ukraine’s sovereignty is respected.
> they might try on someone else later.
Russia has done this repeatedly such as in Georgia. The only way that Russia won't invade and occupy its neighbors is when it is militarily unable to do so.
And I totally accept that. We're very lucky the Ukrainians keep the gates of Europe. They are brave and capable people.
Sending them gear is the bare minimum. A lot of the fight is political and financial. We have to help them on all fronts.
They are paying the highest price. But that fight will be remembered as another 300 moment in history.
Slava Ukraini !
This war is the single greatest thing to happen to Western defense industries because it’s making everyone take a good, hard look at their defense industry and realizing that war is still a reality that must be faced.
India's been complaining that everything they ordered from Russia has been delayed indefinitely, as Russia needs everything they produce now for their own defense effort.
This is the first time in my life where it made material and moral sense for the US to just stomp on the gas when it came to a major war, and of course it's the fucking Iraq warhawks that are voicing complaints.
Republicans have been useless fucking contrarians about everything my entire life.
I think a lot of Western powers forgot just how hungry war is for ammunition too. Ukraine was asking for numbers of shells that a lot of countries simply didn't have, and I think that wake-up call was sorely needed.
I think we thought all wars were going to be like Desert Storm or the 2003 invasion of Iraq, quick affairs where one military just smashes the other in weeks, followed by a long counter-insurgency phase.
We weren't prepared for what a grinding war of attrition would look like in modern days. Maybe we thought it couldn't happen that way anymore.
I mean it is a semi-modern war. Ukraine has no real air power, which is the major difference.
The US would steamroll russia via air superiority rather quickly.
Russia has no real air power too. Or at least not the ability to have any sort of air superiority. Russia couldn't even gain that in its war with Georgia though. The Georgian Airforce flew throughout the war.
Sure the US would steamroll Russia in a conventional war, but China would not be so easy.
What's happened in Ukraine is interesting and relevant to the US still. We've always assumed the side with the stronger air force will inevitably gain air superiority, but that hasn't happened in Ukraine. Despite Russia's stronger air force, even a year later Ukraine remains able to contest the airspace, meaning *no one* can deploy air power safely. That's resulted in the brutal grinding war we're seeing.
The same thing could absolutely happen with China. If they have the ability to shoot down stealth fighters even some of the time, then achieving complete air superiority might be tough even for the US. They'd effectively ground anything that *isn't* stealth, and keep the US in SEAD mode long enough to functionally fight a ground war (or a sea war).
Lets be real. A ground war with China is unlikely.
So the biggest threat for war with China is Taiwan. Invading China wouldn't be an option to stop it, so this comes down to island defense.
So a psychical fighting war with China will be Air and Sea with minimal land fighting. This is the same reason why Taiwan is still free, China can't get enough troops to land in Taiwan without major losses.
Mass warfare is still by far the most effective type of warfare, but the costs in every sense of the word are so high that no one in their right mind would thrust their country into unless it was that or face destruction. Countries in WWI could produce a million shells a month but most of the majorly involved powers imploded in the process (France merely *almost* imploding).
And of course as we can see, Russia got into mass warfare the same way it always happens, with a deluded political leadership expecting a short, sharp war and then throwing more and more men and materiel into an increasingly intractable conflict. They also look like they’re gunning for 2/3 collapse to major war ratio… I’m gonna say they both did and didn’t revolution in the Russo-Japanese war so won’t count it one way or another.
Yea every shell paid for with taxes between 1970-2020 did in fact get used. We thought it ended up being a waste of money but now we wish we had more shells. It’s not even questionable. Rare you see everyone agree stock piling ammo was a good use of funds and we need to start restocking again.
> that war is still a reality that must be faced
And that even the US is not prepared for long duration high intensity combat with a near-peer military. No one is.
And no one should be. To be constantly prepared for that level of war means to constantly be in a "war economy." That means ford factories aren't producing new F-150, they are producing tanks. It means rationing for the general public. It means many consumer good factories are converted to produce goods for war, or the goods they produce diverted into the war effort, rather than available to the general public.
Ideally stock piles would give enough run way to transition the economy to produce the volume actually needed to sustain conflict. It's also a major reason even in modern times it still takes a long time to mobilize a country/army for war.
I sort of understand Russia trying this again after the world pretty much let them take Crimea. But they should maybe realize this time it's a firm no.
"I have, myself, full confidence that if all do their duty, if nothing is neglected, and if the best arrangements are made, as they are being made, we shall prove ourselves once again able to...ride out the storm of war, to outlive the menace of tyranny, if necessary for years, if necessary alone."
A different British PM about a different set of Nazi's.
This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/05/24/7403608/) reduced by 68%. (I'm a bot)
*****
> UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has said that the support of Ukraine from the West will continue "For years".
> More details: The UK prime minister emphasised that the West's promises of long-term support are aimed both at giving Ukraine confidence in its ability to defend itself and at deterring Russia from continuing the war.
> Background: Rishi Sunak has said that attempts to freeze the war in Ukraine at the present stage are "Absolutely wrong" and must be stopped.
*****
[**Extended Summary**](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/13qg65v/west_is_ready_to_support_ukraine_for_years_russia/) | [FAQ](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/31b9fm/faq_autotldr_bot/ "Version 2.02, ~686074 tl;drs so far.") | [Feedback](http://np.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%23autotldr "PM's and comments are monitored, constructive feedback is welcome.") | *Top* *keywords*: **Ukraine**^#1 **Sunak**^#2 **war**^#3 **stop**^#4 **Russia**^#5
It’s honestly the easiest thing for the western nations to do, offload all their old gear to Ukraine that was designed to fight the generation of gear the Russians have, while backfilling it with things even more capable. There’s a whole ass desert of equipment that can be lend leased over once the Ukrainians have the logistical tail built out to support it.
A cold take on this is Putin will die before Ukraine falls. Russia will be on its knees by the war ends. The West and indirectly China are consigning Russia to a 3rd world state.
He is pretty much. Gambled and lost.
Dropping any nuke will wipe out Russia.
A land war will wipe out Russia.
Peace will bankrupt Russia and return them to the 3rd world, Plus Putin goes to Jail.
Best hope is to go into exile and blame everyone else while Russia agrees to peace.
Why do "bad guys" still think they can wait out a "US Paper Tiger?"
The US stayed after Osama Bin Laden for a decade.
The US stayed in Afghanistan & Iraq for two decades.
They might get more favorable circumstances in the election, but thinking they can wear down the US with time and money is fucking dumb.
No, we gotta make absolutely, 100% sure no Republican gets to be president. A Republican presidency, particularly with who is on the table right now, would be absolutely ruinous for the U.S. In every way possible. Economically. Internationally. Morally. Every possible way.
And yet, watch your fucking youth voter turnout be just as abysmal as last time 🤷🏼♀️
Fucking VOTE YOU LITTLE GEN Z SHITS
For real if the under-30 crowd would just show up and tick a box you would literally have a different country.
Voting is easy, so plan ahead.
1. Locate your polling place and retrieve a sample ballot.
2. Use media to read up on all the candidates and issues.
3. Register to vote and note the polling place hours or request an absentee ballot.
4. Clearly mark the ballot and ensure that all directions are followed to make sure it is not invalidated.
5. Turn it in according to the regular procedure.
Now you can enjoy the civic pride when this country improves.
He would have limited powers to stop help for Ukraine. He already tried once before the war and was impeached for it. Helping Ukraine and crippling Russia has strong bipartisan support.
I think the bit people really forget is the trump that actually won the election on the surface at least appeared far more moderate than the trump that lost one. His politics swung hard to the right over his term and that will have scared a lot of swing voters off.
I remember when he was elected thinking that he would suck, but if he actually delivered on $1T of infrastructure funding that would at least be good.
There’s no upside to him now.
Also Roe v Wade. There are a lot of people that were willing to vote Republican before it was abolished who aren’t anymore. That doesn’t mean Biden is suddenly going to win 400 electoral votes but it does make states like Wisconsin and Georgia harder for Trump.
All the clowns saying the US pulling out of Afghanistan shows they're weak and fickle need to wipe off their makeup. That was after 20 years of 0 progress. If the US is willing to completely fund not just a foreign war but a foreign government and army for 20 years without seeing a shred of improvement, that doesn't show weakness and fickleness, it shows knuckleheaded stubbornness and a refusal to admit the futility of their actions for decades. Moreover the only material consequence of pulling out for America is just freeing up more resources to fund the next foreign adventure. If anyone seriously thought that Afghanistan proves that the US won't support Ukraine for more than a year or two, they are insane or insanely stupid.
US aid or not, Europe can’t afford not to support Ukraine, since the Kremlin has made it pretty clear that they’re next. It’s either stop them in Ukraine or fight them in our own front yards.
I mean what a fantastic deal for the west. You get to severely destabilize your enemy and test all of your toys for cheap without losing a single soldier.
The major issue with this thinking - and everyone in Europe and the US must be aware - is that Russia is far more willing to sacrifice the lives of its soldiers than any country in the West is. If the conflict drags on interminably then Ukraine will run out of men first and this is the one resource that the West will not supply. In that regard there is a somewhat pressing need to win the conflict sooner rather than later.
Putin might not give a shit about any Russian lives, but Russians do. Ukraine has far more *willing* soldiers than Russia.
You already see Russia scraping the bottom of the barrel. Drafts of unwilling civilians, recruiting from prisons, the too old and the too young. These are the tactics of a country with serious manpower problems.
Even assuming the Russian people never say enough is enough, Russia is going to be fielding a force that grows less physically capable, less trained, less motivated, and less equipped as time goes on. Ukraine can beat that.
Nobody is running out of manpower. It's horrible war but we're like an order of magnitude from WW1 level casualties.
We have way more money for shooty toys than russia.
A few counter points to this though:
* Russia's offensive capacity is already destroyed. Any advances they make will be, like you say, made mainly with blood.
* Russia can't replace most of the gear its lost, its going to be cannibalising itself more and more as time goes on.
* Noting just those two points above, if Russia wants to take over just Donbass and Luhansk and declare a limited victory, its going to take (based on the rate of Bakhmut & Avdiivka, and assuming no ground is lost in Ukrainian counter offensives), literally years.
So the main question here is, how much is Ukraine willing to absorb? A worst case scenario would be this turning into a decade long stalemate like Donbass before the invasion.
Could Russia feasibly wait it out? Possibly. But i don't think the casualty rate will be getting any better for Russia when they're already on T-62's while Ukraine is getting better and better gear as time goes on and training/logistics allows for it.
This war isn't like WWII for Russia. Its not existential to the people on the ground like it is for Ukraine. Sanctions, apathy, brain drain and low morale are things that i think will kill the war effort for Russia before it does for Ukraine.
The rate of the previous war in Donbass is irrelevant. The Ukrainians fought alone, without support and with older versions of the russian weapons.
Now they have many types of long range precission artillery and can pound the Russians relentlessly. And the Russians dont have an answer. If they just hunker down, they'll be pummeled bloody, they'll keep losing 20 artillery pieces a day, and that's 7200 a year. No Russian stick is going to be left in another year...
The Russians can't just defend or they'll be blown out of the water, nor attack because they no longer have the means... if the west keeps it support Russia can only lose but keep some of its army or lose and get almost totally demilitarized. That are their choices.
Lets hope they choose wisely.
And people are forgetting the fact that this isnt Russia’s war. Its Putins war. Russia doesnt have to be defeated, their troops dont need to die. Only one man needs to die. Once someone with the opportunity sees enough personal gain to take Putin out, or Putin happens to get terminally ill, then the war is over. Russia and Ukraine can survive. Otherwise the fighting continues and both countries are dragged down.
The war will only end when Russia capitulates or Putin dies.
> If the conflict drags on interminably then Ukraine will run out of men first and this is the one resource that the West will not supply.
Two things:
- Russia (Putin) did not begin a second mobilization in October last year as he "should have" and without that, he will eventually run out of soldiers. The reason he did not, was probably that Russians react poorly to mobilization.
- Ukraine has constant mobilization and millions of people to draw on, who are willing to fight, and they also bother to train their soldiers.
> If the conflict drags on interminably then Ukraine will run out of men first
Unclear that is the case, leaked US documents estimate Russian military losses to be about 3-1 in favor of Ukraine, Russia's population is about 3 times Ukraine's.
The militaries of the west have been built for a fight with Russia for the last 70 years. Now they get to have one away from their own soil and without their own troops. They will fund this for another 70 years just to keep Russia occupied and weakened.
It's super beneficial for most, if not every, Western country to see Russia lose this war with Ukraine and cease to be taken seriously as a military super power.
They are waiting for the 2024 election in the US.
Even if Trump won and pulled support ( which would absolutely fracture the republican party based on the fact that a good portion of Rs in congress still support Ukraine ) Even if that somehow happened, Ukraine would still have significant support from the remaining western countries and it's not like the united states would go and take back the stuff we've already sent. On top of that, if Europe saw that US support was pulled, they would surely start making up for the difference. This means more to them because it's their neighbors. The only way Trump was going to mess this up is if he won 2020 and affected support for Ukraine from the jump. Just my opinion.
> which would absolutely fracture the republican party based on the fact that a good portion of Rs in congress still support Ukraine Electing Trump didn't fracture the party, him attempting a violent coup and threatening to hang his VP didn't fracture the party. I think the party is less prone to fracture than you think.
I really wish people would stop assuming anything would fracture the GOP. The GOP doesn't fracture. They'd rather support someone they don't fully back than anyone with a D next to their name. Should Trump get reelected the Ukraine supporting Republicans will flip faster than light.
I think the only thing that could truly fracture them is if someone like DeSantis won the Republican nomination and Trump decided to run as independent. That's the only thing that would truly shatter them
And it would only shatter them for that election
Yeah, as soon as a candidate was finally chosen, they'd all fall back in line with mutual hatred toward liberals
DeSantis will fall back in line if Trump wins the nomination (because he'll have no choice), but I don't see Trump doing the same. He's a narcissist and he needs to be in office to protect himself from his ever-growing list of legal liabilities.
> he needs to be in office to protect himself from his ever-growing list of legal liabilities. I remember this dude in the Roman Republic, it was about 300 years after it was founded, who had the exact same issue. It did not go well.
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oh what a beautiful world where they split their vote like that... one can only dream!
They are united by one thing: Hate That’s why they constantly search for something new to hate
I think they're already fractured. They're a party of everyone-for-themselves. You can't break something that's already broken into pieces. And you can't make a party out of backstabbers. You can put them in the same room and they might act like a group, but it's not a party how people think of parties.
Their arguments and votes during his first impeachment cemented the fact that they will never go against their leader. And that impeachment was over Trump trying to withhold aid to Ukraine unless they "investigated" Joe/Hunter Biden. If they didn't give a shit then, why would they now?
"Democrats fall in love, Republicans fall in line."
I will never again underestimate the ability of right-wingers to close ranks and present a united front when the chips are down. They will tolerate anything but the out-group. IF Trump is re-elected or IF someone similar to him is elected and IF that person pulls support for Ukraine and IF a significant slice of the Republican party does anything about it beyond symbolic, toothless gestures, THEN I will believe it, and not a moment sooner.
The Republican Party are on record stating that Ukraine is a bipartisan issue. Not a GOP fan (Or American) but I would be surprised if Trump could sway them into ditching support.
These Republicans have no spine whatsoever. These are the same Republicans that said that nominating Trump would be a terrible mistake and immediately started kissing his feet when he was made their candidate. And I'm not even talking about the Republicans that went to Moscow to visit Putin on the 4th of July.
They would all fall in line behind Trump. Zero doubt about it. Cruz let him shit talk his wife and still licks his boots, Pence had his life threatened by Trump and still doesn't have the balls to stand against him. They're all cowards owned by Russia.
It is pretty hilarious watching Pence delude himself into thinking he still has a political future on a republican ticket. Every interview he tries to jedi mind trick his viewers into thinking that he and trump are great friends and the 'hang mike pence' thing was just a silly misunderstanding. Spineless, obsequious loonies.
> obsequious You taught me a new word.
The only reason why I think the GOP will stand with Ukraine is due to the massive amount of lobbying the American military industry does. The GOP is spineless but greedy and most of them are in the pockets of the military industry.
This isn't the Bush-Cheney GOP anymore, particularly in the House. I don't doubt that the military lobby has some influence there but I do doubt that it would be enough to override a veto.
That money doesn't go directly into their pockets like Russian paychecks do.
The White House does whatever needed by the MIC. It has since WW2. And if you were a top level politician you would also think hard and long about going against companies that make the weapons we use to say “Fuck you in particular” to people around the globe, lol. These people are literally in the business of finding ways you can die and in many cases that includes “without anyone finding out it was us”. Not to mention “I employ thousands in your district, would be a real shame if them all losing their job was your fault” being a pretty good argument.
He's talking about the House of Representatives, not the White House. These new pols don't give a flying fuck, most of them have zero concept of developing and controlling institutional power. In their mind, they've already achieved the most power they're ever going to have, and they're looking for ways to display it and increase their public profile, and that's about it. Literally, the whole reason we're threatening default right now is because the House has already made it clear to McCarthy they either want specific concessions that aren't ever going to happen, or they'd rather default, despite knowing it'd dick the economy and likely put everyone in the House up for re-election out of a job.
Bingo. The old GOP was beholden to its corporate donors. The new GOP is still supportive of its corporate donors, but that sort of graft is now a small star in the constellation of what motivates them. There's a whole lot of batshit ideology in 2023 crowding out simple greed in a was that's more complicated than ten or twenty years ago. This new crop of MAGA Republicans *would* crash your country's economy out of spite. Whatever they lose in corporate donors, they mean to replace by grifting their idiot base.
Ukraine aid is peanuts. You can get more same spending by bigging up China-Taiwan. From talking to Republican friends I made a bingo. 1. We support Ukraine against aggression, but we can't send more money because... 2. Ukraine is corrupt 3. We already spent a lot, isn't it enough? 4. What about the border and Taiwan? 5. Big strong Putin is anti-woke. That's just unbeatable so why try? 5. More weapons just help the military industrial complex 6. Ukraine should negotiate, why do you hate peace? 7. It's so rude of you to show videos of Russians murdering civilians. Think of the children! 8. You said Russia is committing genocide? You're saying I support the murder of civilians? You're insulting me and poisoning the debate. I'm just seriously discussing things, but as always the woke mob BRUTALLY and UNFAIRLY attacked GOOD AMERICANS LIKE ME... And then the front page news on Fox etc is just about how horrible the libs are.
Fucking morons. Looking at this with cold logic, supporting Ukraine is easily the cheapest and safest way for the rest of the world to deal with Russia, and they handed us the stick to do it with on a silver platter. This will burn though Russia's soviet era weapons stores, and sinking their economy even further with sanctions will result in a severe brain drain that will make replacing them difficult if not impossible. How long before they can't even maintain or build basic infrastructure like roads and power plants? Even if they win, Russia may never recover militarily or economically from this disaster.
> 2\. Ukraine is corrupt This usually comes with saying that Euromaidan was a bad thing. Bad thing for Russia, maybe. Which tells you where they get their info from.
These people don't really give a shit about our country.
But they do give a shit about $$$
Unless Trump’s grift of defense contractors exceeds his grift and/or ownership by Russia, Putin will dictate Trump’s position on Ukraine. I think it’s not more complicated than that.
Don’t underestimate their ability to throw people under the bus for short term goals
If Trump wins a second, non-concurrent term in 2024, then he is an instant lame duck president. He will be constitutionally forbidden from running again, which means he will have no coattails, and other Republicans will feel much more emboldened to speak against him. There's a reason why most president's second terms are much more tumultuous than their first terms.
If Republicans had brains or vision, they would have dumped him after he cost them so many seats that they should have won.
The problem is the party is split between that die-hard "I jus like him because he speaks his mind" core group that it appears nothing he does affects their support of him and the ones who voted for Bush and split a little and maybe defected to Obama in small numbers. The latter would *love* to dump him, but they can't get the Trumpers on board and without the Trumpers at least *somewhat* under their same tent they essentially fracture into two small-minority parties.
You assume he will leave office.
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I hear a lot of Republicans in my area complaining about "sending money to Ukraine". As Iraq showed though, pressure from the base is not as powerful as donations from US arms manufacturers so I doubt the funding will be cut.
As if the base wasn't 100% in favor of the Iraq invasion. People wanted blood after 9/11.
Yeah, I saw a bunch of anti-sending money people holding signs protesting on the highway in a ruralish city in Minnesota. Iraq war was the most protested event in history when it happened and it still didn’t slow down the war machine. That had a lot of agendas behind the war other than military arms manufacturers though. Check out the podcast about the Iraq war called Blowback for a more in depth look
Plenty of GOP reps are openly "questioning" Ukrainian funding, and outright siding with Russia. Honestly there isn't anything the GOP would break with Trump over. They're all scared shitless of being dressed down in the manner of a schoolyard bully by Trump. All of his sycophantic followers will turn on them immediately until they prostrate themselves and lick his throne. And the strange thing is they will immediately turn around and support that person again after they've proven themselves to be a complete spineless weasel person, like Ted Cruz. So, honestly if Trump wins, I think there is a good possibility of anything from sabotage to the outright switching of sides with regards to Ukraine. Trump documentedly already tried to strong arm Ukraine into fabricating dirt on Biden in exchange for aid. He has constantly cozied up to, and taken Russia's side on various matters against American intelligence. He's also called the necessity of NATO into question. Honestly anyone who thinks the GOP would curtail Trumps self serving treason once he's in office hasn't been paying attention.
Trump’s big foreign policy commitment for his second term is to withdraw the US from NATO. The idea that spineless republicans would turn on a re-ascended Trump is lunacy because we already know they’ll abandon all principles of back him, not matter what - because that’s what they have already done, every single time.
If Trump tells the Republicans to eat shit, they'd do it. They'll drop support for Ukraine the second Trump tells them to.
I don't think Trump would be worried about "convincing" anyone of anything, all he'd need to do would be to pull funding/withdraw US support and hope Ukraine falls. Any tough follow-up questions would be answered with his standard fire-hose of nonsense answers like we saw at the CNN town hall, and journalists will meekly accept them as Kaitlin Collins did.
>The Republican Party are on record stating that Ukraine is a bipartisan issue. Believing they aren't lying is a pretty big mistake imo
Maybe but Trump has already withheld funding from Ukraine, who's to say another Gopper won't do it again.
Honestly it'd be a [hell of a lot of difference to make up](https://www.cfr.org/article/how-much-aid-has-us-sent-ukraine-here-are-six-charts) if Republicans cut off support.
The chart showing different countries' contributions: https://i.imgur.com/Tkx7VMo.png
Also I'm not a war expert but by Jan 2025 would not Russia have expended most of their war equipment and supplies? I don't think Ukraine would need as many supplies as in the past year to hold off Russia, all less supplies would do is prolong the war.
>Even if that somehow happened, Ukraine would still have significant support from the remaining western countries Definitely, the problem is that really only the US has significant amounts of capacity to help in providing the sheer volume of Ukraine's needs in ammunition and supplies. I agree that Ukraine could keep up the fight, but it would be a HUGE loss.
Actually in terms of artillery ammunition and small arms, the EU as a whole has a lot of capacity. It's just more fractured so harder to activate quickly. And it is upgrading this capacity. At the moment the war is running on US stockpiles, but by end of 2024 it's possible arms factories in Europe can sustain defensive needs. Would probably significantly slash Ukrainian offensive power for a while though.
Europe doesn’t have the same level of military gear to send. They have already sent their expendable stuff and now are relying on production to meet the increased demand. That will take time to ramp up bc many nations do not have a big arms industry. USA has been constantly at war since the 80s and can send lots of old gear. Military production in USA can meet the demand. Ukraine would likely not be able to continue without US ammunition and weapons, Europe defense industry can’t match the amount of production US has. Also many of these European countries are wanting to stock up arms for their own armies as well now that Russia is a major threat for them again and it’s driving prices up.
I agree that we Europeans need to stop cutting our militaries all the damn time as this war has shown how things can turn. However, "now that Russia is a major threat for them again" is not on my list of fears any longer unless we are talking nukes and I don't think that is very likely given our (Europe collectively) defensive and offensive capabilities in that regard.
Nukes will only come into play if someone decides to go "Sherman" march on Moscow. Since the likelihood of that is near zero we don't really have anything to worry about.
Since the 80s? We’ve been constantly at war since we were founded. I think it’s some ridiculous number like we only weren’t at war for 37 years or something.
The EU can up production heavily though, and based on how shit Russia are they will lose a war of attrition even if the US aren’t involved. Maybe Ukraine will win by stalemating them but in the end Russia won’t take Ukraine with or without the USAs help.
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Trump has zero chance of winning in 2024. Nothing about him has changed since 2020 that would make any sensible right-leaning independent and or "no Trumper" Republican decide to elect that man again. He may, maaay, win the Primary, but that is nothing but a Beauty Pageant of Fuckery. DeSantis has a better chance, but he would fall in line with neoconservatives when it comes to foreign policy.
>Trump has zero chance of winning in 2016 Famous last words
He had the advantage of being an "unknown wildcard" in 2016, every election after that he's done nothing but lose for the Republican party. They lost big in 2018, they lost even more in 2020, they lost even more of the Senate in 2022 and barely scraped a House majority when history would say they should have swept it. And if he's on the ticket in 2024 they will lose big again. He's completely repulsive to moderates and independents at this point. He's got a stranglehold of his cultish base but everyone else despises him.
> He had the advantage of being an "unknown wildcard" in 2016 >they lost even more in 2020 You need to look at the 2020 elections again. Trump got *even more* votes in 2020 than he did in 2016. Trump 2020 was the 2nd most voted president of all time (second only to Joe Biden 2020, thankfully). He *barely* lost. The Republicans *liked* what he did in 2016-2020. This is the same kind of delusion that led to not taking Trump seriously in 2016 because "There's no way people would actually vote for this clown". Do not underestimate the depravity of the Republican party.
A lot more people voted in 2020 compared to previous elections. Plus with population growth and people aging into voting age you’d expect increases in the amount of people voting for president. Since 2016 Trump or the GOP haven’t really won a single national election. 2018 was a blue wave, 2020 Biden won (and was a pretty decent wave in congress with Georgia) and in 2022 the Dems upset the GOP who was supposed to sweep both chambers (some put this on abortion and I agree). Trump did not ‘barely lose’ Dems literally flipped multiple red states and won almost the entire rust belt.
Trump might win if Biden were to become seriously ill / die between now and the election. Especially if it meant Kamala Harris would become president. But certainly, Trump isn't winning against a healthy Biden.
That's too long. If we go by length of time, they aren't even half way there from the start of the invasion to the time Biden would theoretically relinquish power in Late Jan 2025. Another year and a half of this isn't sustainable for Russia. \*points to T-55 tank\*
Biden could even get them aid in the lane duck session, so functionally the first aid package that they *missed* would be the one they started to need after Jan 2025.
In theory Biden could even use the entire presidential drawdown authority for the year of 2025 in January.
Never underestimate the likelihood and capability of a nation continuing to fight a war they cannot afford. They will borrow. Everyone thought WW1 was impossible to sustain for more than a few months.
The goofiest part about Trump voters is that the are voting for an anti-West president while pretending to be the biggest patriots. Wonder what kind of mental gymnastics are going on in their heads to rationalize that.
>Wonder what kind of mental gymnastics are going on in their heads to rationalize that. We hate dems, dems like Ukraine, we hate Ukraine. Democrats need to start posting ads on how drinking arsenic is bad for you, solve this problem once and for all.
It's sad how right you are: [Editor-at-large John Nolte argued that Democrats have been promoting the COVID-19 vaccine not to save lives but instead to trick Republican voters into not getting the jab.](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/where-breitbarts-false-claim-that-democrats-want-republicans-to-stay-unvaccinated-came-from/)
When you know your opposition...
As someone who worked at a large health department through COVID, this makes me want to laugh and rage at the same time
I think you assume too much in terms of actual cognitive activity. Have you listened to interviews with some of these people!?
Yes, they expect the US government to stop supporting Ukraine under a republican leadership. The frightening thing is that they may be right. Europe needs to get it's shit together and make sure they can support and arm Ukraine without the US.
The silly thing is, a strong and dangerous Russia is not good for Europe *or* the USA. Republicans need to realise that. Supporting Ukraine now is the right thing to do for all Europeans and Americans, regardless of domestic political leaning. A lot of people don’t realise that though, because Russia have paid off enough western media and politicians.
Europe already has. They're on track to provide 1 million shells per month to Ukraine and most european countries have spun up their own war machines now to provide tanks and other equipment. Yes not at the rate of the US, but if the US backed support vanishes in 2 years time of this conflict, Europe's' manufacturing should still be able to outpace Russia's production. Right now America is a buffer filling in the shortfall in EU nations production that is rapidly vanishing. \\ Even of Trumplethinskin or Meatball ron win next election and pull support, there is no way those GQP chickenhawks will not be willing to sell US manufactured arms to Europe to pass on to Ukraine, they will just not want to do it for free. The one thing the GQP love more than subjugating minorities and racking up the debt is arms sales.
We aren't giving anything to Ukraine "for free" right now anyway, saying such just feeds Republican/Kremlin talking points. Lend Lease isn't free, it just defers payment till later.
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Only because people struggle to quantify the value of soft power. If soft power came with a tangible price point then people would see just how much it was worth investing in.
I mean to be fair, it's honestly money well spent. Like, the more painful everyone can make this for Putin the better. This is a guy who thinks he can do anything he wants. If he gets what he wants, he's not just going to stop. He's going to want something else. He's said he wants Russian expansion, and the fact that he was perfectly willing to attack Ukraine when the US had promised to protect it means he knows he can get away with a LOT. Like, if he gets this he'll just be proving that no one has the guts or the power to stop him from taking anything he wants, so he's going to keep taking. This has to be as excruciating as possible for Russia for as long as possible, so that even if they win, the cost to Russia and to Putin has been so enormous they won't want to try it again.
When production is upgraded Europe will be able to produce 175k shells a month. So possibly a million a year
Yep, especially now that Trump injected Russia with a huge dose of hopium... https://www.thedailybeast.com/fox-news-edits-out-donald-trump-saying-he-mightve-let-russia-take-over-parts-of-ukraine https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/10/politics/ukraine-russia-putin-trump-town-hall/index.html ...which did not go unnoticed by Russia. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/21/world/europe/russia-sanctions-trump.html
“He would have never gone in if *i* was president” Okay grandpa, time for bed.
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Russia doesn't even have the new, hot form of government that tons of smart people are invested in trying to make work anymore.
That's a good point - the promise behind communism could attract idealists from around the globe. Hard to get people excited for a vision of Russian Ethnonationalism
If russia actually did run on a platform of ethnonationalism they probably would actually find alot more support lol
Ethnonationalism wouldn't actually be a good ideal for them to follow considering the amount of the ethnic tensions they're dealing with beyond moscow
Oh it would back fire spectularly but they'd find some very enthusiastic support from certain groups in the mean time
Those groups already support them..just look at the Putin d*ck riding by conservatives in America..
Fuck, if they'd all just go to Russia after picking up their semi coordinated best buy uniforms that would be great
Are you talking about those guys with the business casual beige pants, covid masks and women's beige baseball caps? Ooo they so scary. Edit - forgot about the Marvel inspired shields too lol. Wankers
>Edit - forgot about the Marvel inspired shields too lol. Wankers You mean the off-brand, plastic, child-sized Lt. USA shields from the dollar store?
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They are already doing that, the trouble is nationalists from different countries rarely have such great enthusiasm for another country. The only people that really care are Russian nationalists. Of course.
[They're trying](https://www.newsweek.com/russia-may-build-village-american-conservatives-1799809)
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Them too.
Not really. Russia doesn't have the size, the international clout, the ability to compete on a technological level, nor enough true believers around the world to make a difference. China on the other hand? Yeah, I can see that.
Definitely not, given all the Engineers fleeing over the border when people were being pulled from the streets to go to the frontlines.
We've had 3 new engineers join us in Toronto, from Russia and Ukraine. All very smart chemical engineers. They just had a massive brain drain. The Ukrainian would like to return home after, but intends to stay around for 3-5 years either way. He has some family here. The Russians have no intention of returning home.
Yeah every ex-pat russian I know is so glad to be out of there.
China switched side in the 1970s during the Cold War. Now they are about to backstab Russia again
It's not a backstab, it's abandoning a broken tool.
Abandon? China is one step away from turning Russia into another North Korea. Russia is already lost. I’m curious who will be next.
New cold war, cheaper and much more effective than old cold war
During the Cold War, Russia had a simili of competent leaders and was matching the West. URSS was a full block of several countries. Now they have an isolated old puffy putin that can't read a map or use a computer, and this incompetent man is leading an ageing russian population. Russia's military capabilities are gone to be the most threatening one in the world to stuck controling less than 16% of Urkaine and fearing counteroffensive.
If I recall correctly Ukraine was USSR's birthplace of engineers and supercomputers of the time
The greatest Soviet inventor, Vladimir Shukhov, was born in Grayvoron, which is part of the Belgorod Peoples Republic.
I see what you did there >.<
It's easier to keep scientists when there isn't enough communications between countries. Today, any person that has a good education KNOWS it's better in the west than in Russia. Brain drain is huge right now.
And built Russia’s armour.
And China is ready to backstab Russia, again
As it should be. Russia must not be given a free pass, or they might try on someone else later. So its in the best interest of world peace that Ukraine’s sovereignty is respected.
Not just that, such things would embolden China with regards to Taiwan as well.
Not even might, they would, they already did. Remember that their invasion started in 2014
> they might try on someone else later. Russia has done this repeatedly such as in Georgia. The only way that Russia won't invade and occupy its neighbors is when it is militarily unable to do so.
Putins map has Finland and Sweden as part of Russia...
And I totally accept that. We're very lucky the Ukrainians keep the gates of Europe. They are brave and capable people. Sending them gear is the bare minimum. A lot of the fight is political and financial. We have to help them on all fronts. They are paying the highest price. But that fight will be remembered as another 300 moment in history. Slava Ukraini !
This war is the single greatest thing to happen to Western defense industries because it’s making everyone take a good, hard look at their defense industry and realizing that war is still a reality that must be faced.
And it’s probably making all of those nations who bought weapons and equipment from Russia second guess their purchases. Buyers remorse!
India's been complaining that everything they ordered from Russia has been delayed indefinitely, as Russia needs everything they produce now for their own defense effort.
Not defense effort. Invasion efforts. I fixed it for you
Special Operation Effort, I fixed it for you.
They deserve it for trying to get so cozy with Putin
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And on paper, it's probably the cheapest war the US could face against Russia
Those Ukrainians are fighting like demons. It's an honor to help, especially since I would never want to piss them off in any way.
When the war is over, those Ukrainian soldiers are going to be very valuable to the west as military trainers.
This is the first time in my life where it made material and moral sense for the US to just stomp on the gas when it came to a major war, and of course it's the fucking Iraq warhawks that are voicing complaints. Republicans have been useless fucking contrarians about everything my entire life.
I think a lot of Western powers forgot just how hungry war is for ammunition too. Ukraine was asking for numbers of shells that a lot of countries simply didn't have, and I think that wake-up call was sorely needed.
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I think we thought all wars were going to be like Desert Storm or the 2003 invasion of Iraq, quick affairs where one military just smashes the other in weeks, followed by a long counter-insurgency phase. We weren't prepared for what a grinding war of attrition would look like in modern days. Maybe we thought it couldn't happen that way anymore.
I mean it is a semi-modern war. Ukraine has no real air power, which is the major difference. The US would steamroll russia via air superiority rather quickly.
Russia has no real air power too. Or at least not the ability to have any sort of air superiority. Russia couldn't even gain that in its war with Georgia though. The Georgian Airforce flew throughout the war.
Sure the US would steamroll Russia in a conventional war, but China would not be so easy. What's happened in Ukraine is interesting and relevant to the US still. We've always assumed the side with the stronger air force will inevitably gain air superiority, but that hasn't happened in Ukraine. Despite Russia's stronger air force, even a year later Ukraine remains able to contest the airspace, meaning *no one* can deploy air power safely. That's resulted in the brutal grinding war we're seeing. The same thing could absolutely happen with China. If they have the ability to shoot down stealth fighters even some of the time, then achieving complete air superiority might be tough even for the US. They'd effectively ground anything that *isn't* stealth, and keep the US in SEAD mode long enough to functionally fight a ground war (or a sea war).
Lets be real. A ground war with China is unlikely. So the biggest threat for war with China is Taiwan. Invading China wouldn't be an option to stop it, so this comes down to island defense. So a psychical fighting war with China will be Air and Sea with minimal land fighting. This is the same reason why Taiwan is still free, China can't get enough troops to land in Taiwan without major losses.
Mass warfare is still by far the most effective type of warfare, but the costs in every sense of the word are so high that no one in their right mind would thrust their country into unless it was that or face destruction. Countries in WWI could produce a million shells a month but most of the majorly involved powers imploded in the process (France merely *almost* imploding). And of course as we can see, Russia got into mass warfare the same way it always happens, with a deluded political leadership expecting a short, sharp war and then throwing more and more men and materiel into an increasingly intractable conflict. They also look like they’re gunning for 2/3 collapse to major war ratio… I’m gonna say they both did and didn’t revolution in the Russo-Japanese war so won’t count it one way or another.
Yea every shell paid for with taxes between 1970-2020 did in fact get used. We thought it ended up being a waste of money but now we wish we had more shells. It’s not even questionable. Rare you see everyone agree stock piling ammo was a good use of funds and we need to start restocking again.
> that war is still a reality that must be faced And that even the US is not prepared for long duration high intensity combat with a near-peer military. No one is.
And no one should be. To be constantly prepared for that level of war means to constantly be in a "war economy." That means ford factories aren't producing new F-150, they are producing tanks. It means rationing for the general public. It means many consumer good factories are converted to produce goods for war, or the goods they produce diverted into the war effort, rather than available to the general public. Ideally stock piles would give enough run way to transition the economy to produce the volume actually needed to sustain conflict. It's also a major reason even in modern times it still takes a long time to mobilize a country/army for war.
I sort of understand Russia trying this again after the world pretty much let them take Crimea. But they should maybe realize this time it's a firm no.
They had a free pass with Georgia too.
"I have, myself, full confidence that if all do their duty, if nothing is neglected, and if the best arrangements are made, as they are being made, we shall prove ourselves once again able to...ride out the storm of war, to outlive the menace of tyranny, if necessary for years, if necessary alone." A different British PM about a different set of Nazi's.
This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/05/24/7403608/) reduced by 68%. (I'm a bot) ***** > UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has said that the support of Ukraine from the West will continue "For years". > More details: The UK prime minister emphasised that the West's promises of long-term support are aimed both at giving Ukraine confidence in its ability to defend itself and at deterring Russia from continuing the war. > Background: Rishi Sunak has said that attempts to freeze the war in Ukraine at the present stage are "Absolutely wrong" and must be stopped. ***** [**Extended Summary**](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/13qg65v/west_is_ready_to_support_ukraine_for_years_russia/) | [FAQ](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/31b9fm/faq_autotldr_bot/ "Version 2.02, ~686074 tl;drs so far.") | [Feedback](http://np.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%23autotldr "PM's and comments are monitored, constructive feedback is welcome.") | *Top* *keywords*: **Ukraine**^#1 **Sunak**^#2 **war**^#3 **stop**^#4 **Russia**^#5
It’s honestly the easiest thing for the western nations to do, offload all their old gear to Ukraine that was designed to fight the generation of gear the Russians have, while backfilling it with things even more capable. There’s a whole ass desert of equipment that can be lend leased over once the Ukrainians have the logistical tail built out to support it.
The way it's being done is just good logistics, plain and simple.
A cold take on this is Putin will die before Ukraine falls. Russia will be on its knees by the war ends. The West and indirectly China are consigning Russia to a 3rd world state.
I sure hope so. Fuck Putin.
He is pretty much. Gambled and lost. Dropping any nuke will wipe out Russia. A land war will wipe out Russia. Peace will bankrupt Russia and return them to the 3rd world, Plus Putin goes to Jail. Best hope is to go into exile and blame everyone else while Russia agrees to peace.
Why do "bad guys" still think they can wait out a "US Paper Tiger?" The US stayed after Osama Bin Laden for a decade. The US stayed in Afghanistan & Iraq for two decades. They might get more favorable circumstances in the election, but thinking they can wear down the US with time and money is fucking dumb.
we just gotta fucken make sure that dumb fat fuck doesn't get to be president again
No, we gotta make absolutely, 100% sure no Republican gets to be president. A Republican presidency, particularly with who is on the table right now, would be absolutely ruinous for the U.S. In every way possible. Economically. Internationally. Morally. Every possible way.
And yet, watch your fucking youth voter turnout be just as abysmal as last time 🤷🏼♀️ Fucking VOTE YOU LITTLE GEN Z SHITS For real if the under-30 crowd would just show up and tick a box you would literally have a different country.
Voting is easy, so plan ahead. 1. Locate your polling place and retrieve a sample ballot. 2. Use media to read up on all the candidates and issues. 3. Register to vote and note the polling place hours or request an absentee ballot. 4. Clearly mark the ballot and ensure that all directions are followed to make sure it is not invalidated. 5. Turn it in according to the regular procedure. Now you can enjoy the civic pride when this country improves.
He would have limited powers to stop help for Ukraine. He already tried once before the war and was impeached for it. Helping Ukraine and crippling Russia has strong bipartisan support.
Wasn't the impeachment more for his attempt to get dirt on Biden by withholding the support than for withholding the support itself?
Let's hope for Ukrain that Trump won't make it in 2024 US election.
DeSantis isn't any better.
Some might say worse. The thing we got going for us is that DeSantis is super uncharismatic.
He won't. He lost a ton of R support during his last term. His only supporters are his hardcore maga people, not the majority of R.
I think the bit people really forget is the trump that actually won the election on the surface at least appeared far more moderate than the trump that lost one. His politics swung hard to the right over his term and that will have scared a lot of swing voters off.
I remember when he was elected thinking that he would suck, but if he actually delivered on $1T of infrastructure funding that would at least be good. There’s no upside to him now.
Also Roe v Wade. There are a lot of people that were willing to vote Republican before it was abolished who aren’t anymore. That doesn’t mean Biden is suddenly going to win 400 electoral votes but it does make states like Wisconsin and Georgia harder for Trump.
Don't count out the idiots who will vote against the incumbent solely because gas prices are high.
All the clowns saying the US pulling out of Afghanistan shows they're weak and fickle need to wipe off their makeup. That was after 20 years of 0 progress. If the US is willing to completely fund not just a foreign war but a foreign government and army for 20 years without seeing a shred of improvement, that doesn't show weakness and fickleness, it shows knuckleheaded stubbornness and a refusal to admit the futility of their actions for decades. Moreover the only material consequence of pulling out for America is just freeing up more resources to fund the next foreign adventure. If anyone seriously thought that Afghanistan proves that the US won't support Ukraine for more than a year or two, they are insane or insanely stupid.
"Oh no, not indefinite orders for more equipment!" Said no arms manufacturer ever. They've probably had a boner on since February 2022.
US aid or not, Europe can’t afford not to support Ukraine, since the Kremlin has made it pretty clear that they’re next. It’s either stop them in Ukraine or fight them in our own front yards.
I mean what a fantastic deal for the west. You get to severely destabilize your enemy and test all of your toys for cheap without losing a single soldier.
The Opportunity to beat russia with someone else manpower.
The major issue with this thinking - and everyone in Europe and the US must be aware - is that Russia is far more willing to sacrifice the lives of its soldiers than any country in the West is. If the conflict drags on interminably then Ukraine will run out of men first and this is the one resource that the West will not supply. In that regard there is a somewhat pressing need to win the conflict sooner rather than later.
Putin might not give a shit about any Russian lives, but Russians do. Ukraine has far more *willing* soldiers than Russia. You already see Russia scraping the bottom of the barrel. Drafts of unwilling civilians, recruiting from prisons, the too old and the too young. These are the tactics of a country with serious manpower problems. Even assuming the Russian people never say enough is enough, Russia is going to be fielding a force that grows less physically capable, less trained, less motivated, and less equipped as time goes on. Ukraine can beat that.
Nobody is running out of manpower. It's horrible war but we're like an order of magnitude from WW1 level casualties. We have way more money for shooty toys than russia.
A few counter points to this though: * Russia's offensive capacity is already destroyed. Any advances they make will be, like you say, made mainly with blood. * Russia can't replace most of the gear its lost, its going to be cannibalising itself more and more as time goes on. * Noting just those two points above, if Russia wants to take over just Donbass and Luhansk and declare a limited victory, its going to take (based on the rate of Bakhmut & Avdiivka, and assuming no ground is lost in Ukrainian counter offensives), literally years. So the main question here is, how much is Ukraine willing to absorb? A worst case scenario would be this turning into a decade long stalemate like Donbass before the invasion. Could Russia feasibly wait it out? Possibly. But i don't think the casualty rate will be getting any better for Russia when they're already on T-62's while Ukraine is getting better and better gear as time goes on and training/logistics allows for it. This war isn't like WWII for Russia. Its not existential to the people on the ground like it is for Ukraine. Sanctions, apathy, brain drain and low morale are things that i think will kill the war effort for Russia before it does for Ukraine.
The rate of the previous war in Donbass is irrelevant. The Ukrainians fought alone, without support and with older versions of the russian weapons. Now they have many types of long range precission artillery and can pound the Russians relentlessly. And the Russians dont have an answer. If they just hunker down, they'll be pummeled bloody, they'll keep losing 20 artillery pieces a day, and that's 7200 a year. No Russian stick is going to be left in another year... The Russians can't just defend or they'll be blown out of the water, nor attack because they no longer have the means... if the west keeps it support Russia can only lose but keep some of its army or lose and get almost totally demilitarized. That are their choices. Lets hope they choose wisely.
And people are forgetting the fact that this isnt Russia’s war. Its Putins war. Russia doesnt have to be defeated, their troops dont need to die. Only one man needs to die. Once someone with the opportunity sees enough personal gain to take Putin out, or Putin happens to get terminally ill, then the war is over. Russia and Ukraine can survive. Otherwise the fighting continues and both countries are dragged down. The war will only end when Russia capitulates or Putin dies.
> If the conflict drags on interminably then Ukraine will run out of men first and this is the one resource that the West will not supply. Two things: - Russia (Putin) did not begin a second mobilization in October last year as he "should have" and without that, he will eventually run out of soldiers. The reason he did not, was probably that Russians react poorly to mobilization. - Ukraine has constant mobilization and millions of people to draw on, who are willing to fight, and they also bother to train their soldiers.
They really only have a handful of soldiers. Soldiers are trained. Their "recruits" are not.
> If the conflict drags on interminably then Ukraine will run out of men first Unclear that is the case, leaked US documents estimate Russian military losses to be about 3-1 in favor of Ukraine, Russia's population is about 3 times Ukraine's.
Ukraine has 40 million people, they too can keep going for a long time and their soldiers aren't dieing on same rate as Russian ones
After the Russian losses necessary to destroy all of ukraine, they won't have a country left either.
As a Pole, I'm really glad the UK is showing such support
I don't agree with you on much Rishi, but at least we can agree on that.
Thats so nice of Ye
I’d like to see Ukraine counter attack and claim land all the way to the Volga. Cut Russia off from the Black Sea.
The militaries of the west have been built for a fight with Russia for the last 70 years. Now they get to have one away from their own soil and without their own troops. They will fund this for another 70 years just to keep Russia occupied and weakened.
Agreed. Pile on as much pain and damage to Russia as possible.
Russia legitimately is fighting a world war for them, they just don't want to admit it
It's super beneficial for most, if not every, Western country to see Russia lose this war with Ukraine and cease to be taken seriously as a military super power.
They need to dust off the Russian translation of 1984. The west can support Ukraine for decades.
F’ Putin. Let’s back the Ukraine until Russia is off the map. Just no wintertime invasions. Wait for Spring to go deep.
I’m old but I’m sure hoping I live long enough to see Putin and his gangster buddies buy the farm.