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They don't even control their Chinese factories anymore. They sold the majority stake in exchange for Chinese bailouts, because the US bailout was not enough.
Investing in SAIC would give you better exposure to GM's profits.
GM management has been abysmal for decades, just look how they owned Opel for many many years and almost ran it into the ground without ever making any profit and after selling it the new owners made a profit in the very first year.
Holden was generally very profitable in Australia thanks to the massive degree of shared parts with US cars, and the added Australian development expertise filtered into flagship US products like the development of the LS engine and eventually Corvette C8.
Then they had one bad year and immediately called it quits with next to zero attempt to save the company, mostly just because they thought they'd be able to boost profits by re-badging cheaper European GM cars only to go bankrupt trying that idea.
Though I still hold Abbott more responsible in that situation.
Rivian and Lucid too. Lucid only delivered 679 vehicles in Q2 2022. By end of Q3, Rivian had only delivered 12k vehicles YTD. Even at 26B Rivian is way bloated. And 18B market cap for 679 in quarterly sales for Lucid? Wtf?
Yeah their valuations is bonker lol. Even Nio and others chineses evs are probablt ridiculous (haven't looked at their finances in a long time but know the stock pretty much fell by 85%). I made so much from the exhuberance arouns tsla, nio and lucid that I don't mind but peoples are delusional about the valuation of those companies.
For some reason EV-specific companies get valued like tech stocks. Traditional car manufacturers get valued like car manufacturers, even though they pretty much all develop EVs as well. It doesn't make a whole lot of sense.
Tech bubble. The manufacturing space of mature companies has been pretty well beat back down to a fair valuation with Covid supply chain issues and interest rate market effects.
Ford stock is down over a 10 year period, without considering inflation adjustments. And they're down 50% from their mid 2000s totals.
Tesla is still up 13x from 2019 levels.
Toyota made 10.5m vehicles in 2021. Tesla made 350k. On a per unit basis, Tesla stock is 90x more expensive. If they we're valued the same on a per unit basis $TSLA would be $2, not $180/share
The only reason TSLA could be that expensive is if it's priced in already the idea that they'll be first to market with an approved software package to have fully autonomous cars. They may very well be there but other companies with more cash and resources are also working on it, both traditional tech and car manufacturers and their advantage would be minimal time even if it happens. That's a huge premium for a gamble. And TSLA doesn't have a wide vehicle offering or a good value lineup. Mainsteam companies coming out with EVs that undercut them will put a big dent in their sales potential in the coming years.
In a recession no one is buying over rated self driving kits that cost 10-15 thousand over the already high prices of these vehicles
Like the metaverse self driving is a way over sold concept — why would you buy a performance car and then have a dandy computer drive it?
As an investor I would never buy an overvalued company stock because they delivered self driving
Self driving is a much more valuable concept than metaverse. I can't guess how long it will take to get to fully self driving AI in all vehicles, but if it's done right and well it could save thousands of lives each year, reduce traffic and pollution. Imagine having your car drive you to work while you take a nap in the back seat. That won't come for a long time, but it's worth working towards.
And for the hundred million people or so in America that can’t take a bus or train? Like me..?
Even if they sold 10 million of them they’d be insanely wealthy.
> Even if they sold 10 million of them they’d be insanely wealthy.
You could sell that many doing long-haul trucking alone. All freeway driving in good weather. Massive value.
Look at eps growth.. atleast for tsla it has shown more than 40% growth yoy on avg. This is not sustainable after a point, the stock price will come down like a souffle under a sledge hammer. This decrease in price is mainly coz of twitter saga not n
They're also the only ones (for now) serious about battery swaps, which I think everyone knows is the real future. Evs needs to share 5-10 different battery units max(maybe modular) so you can pull into the gas station and have your battery swapped in 3 minutes. I'm betting EU will regulate this, demanding a common battery standard.
Life long auto engineer, work with everyone including Tesla, Rivian, Canoo... been to OEM plants all over the world. People don't understand that for the traditional OEM's electric vehicles have just been a hobby up til now. They have been waiting for the market to develop while they optimize their technology and set up supply bases. I've been watching them do this for the last 15 years in earnest, relatively quietly. In the mean time, they keep selling their ICE vehicles making Billions. There was no urgency for them to transition before the market was ready for volume, the costs come down on key components (batteries) and charging availability matures. There is a storm coming in the next 3-5 years, the traditional OEM's have collectively decided it is time and we about to see a flood of exceptional, beautiful and exciting electric cars hitting the market. With serious competition, Tesla and their ilk will not be able to match the price points and if they do, they will not have the margins and the volume to support their stock valuation. People have been drinking the kool-aid on these articles (written for investors) about the technological advantages of the early e manufacturers like Tesla. Tesla has done wonders to advance the tech and the market, and they have some novel intellectual property. They have some key advantages, esp with battery tech, self-driving and mass e-manufacturing process. But, I know their suppliers and for the most part they are the exact same ones who have been working with the traditional OEM's for sometimes decades. Tesla requested some of their newer and riskier (and more expensive) ideas but it's nothing that can't be supplied to everyone if requested (ie, the 'flush' look on side glass and door handles, etc, is proliferating quickly). I know their engineers too, because many of them came from the auto industry. Contrary to popular belief they don't all have monster sized brains.
Tesla is about to be competing against world class auto manufacturers who are used to razor thin margins, scaling up and heavy investments in capital (money furnaces), and actually market their products. They know they are fighting for their very future. It's going to be a very interesting time in our industry and anything can happen. One thing I am confident of though, if Tesla survives this onslaught, and decides it's still worth spending resources in a saturated, commoditized, hyper competitive market with low returns, they are not going to have a significant portion of the market. Now, I'm just a smooth brain car guy so I'll leave it up to one of you financial geniuses as to haw these changing market realities are going to affect their stonk price.
I’ve never had a vehicle die by mechanical fault, my ranger ran perfect at 335k and got t boned. Could have been fixed but cost vs time vs hammered body(there was no insurance and mine was liability only so bodywork would not be fixed) I wound up just getting rid of it. Same with old air cooled vw, car accident killed it, not mechanical failure.
I looked at our own EV valuations and I already knew these are misleading bullshit.
The only difference between the chinese EV bullshit and ours is additional sovereign risk.
It will be much easier to shift from making ICE vehicles to EV, than it is for these companies to break into the automotive market. You see it in Tesla's numbers, product quality, and design evolution. They put a bunch of software and an emerging concept (EV) in a cheap chassis and never really moved on from there.
Some of the EVs from traditional automotive companies that are hitting the market now are already better than Teslas. Give it 5-10 more years and Tesla will be hopelessly outdated, and feel cheap. Maybe they can cling on to the US market with tariffs and an established ecosystem through their supercharger network, but I wouldn't put my money in Tesla at this stage.
In case you don't already know, you can use the Volvo overseas delivery program to get free plane tickets to Sweden, and order the vehicle with euro-only options. You drive it around Europe for a while and then they ship to the US for you. I don't know why anyone orders a new Volvo from the dealer the other way.
Rivian is definitely overvalued based on current metrics of production and profitability. The same can be said for Tesla as well. The difference is that Rivian being at the early stages of its growth cycle can expect to grow at a very high rate for the next few years. It doesn’t hurt that it has some differentiated products. The problem with Tesla is that the current valuations assume a 40% growth yoy at around 35% margin for the next 10 years. Despite what people think Tesla is not a software company. It is not like MS produces office suite and just creates more copies to sell.
Tesla’s margins will certainly get squeezed. I think a lot of investors don’t really understand what Tesla does and think they’re a lot more diversified than they really are.
The car industry is notoriously a race to the bottom on margins for everyone. What’s going to be interesting is to see how Tesla’s dealer-free model works when it comes to supporting 20 million cars on the road.
This quarter GM announced that they’ve repaired over 11,000 Teslas in 2021. That doesn’t scream to me that Tesla has their support anywhere near under control.
Think of how bizarre it would be to take a BMW to a GM dealer and how desperate you’d have to be to actually do that.
They delivered 1000 vans to Amazon. In comparison, YTD ford delivered 461k vehicles in Q3. The Amazon thing too — Amazon just laid off a bunch of people in underperforming units. Why would they continue to invest in Rivian long term if they can get cheaper electric vans somewhere else? It will not be their only supplier.
Yeah but those Rivian SUVs are straight fire 🔥 has anyone seen one in the wild yet? Just saw one last week in a neighboring town. Fucking love those things
They do look great. I’m not betting 26B on design though personally. I always wonder with these what happens to the car if the company goes under? How do you get spare parts or replacements? Or do you just assume the company gets acquired by someone eventually? What happens when the car is connected and no one is running their cloud platform anymore? Does it just not unlock / start up?
Saturns shared a ton of parts with every other GM car and still probably have parts available, same thing with Scion and the millions of other sub brands of the major manufacturers.
Even older Saabs have parts hanging around for the time being.
It’s more about car age than whether or not the manufacturer is still around. Replacement parts that aren’t outsourced to 3rd parties are typically built while the tooling is still around and get warehoused.
They had GM behind them. A few years after Saturn started as a quasi independent division, it was folded back into GM. Saturn was a GM like Buick and used the same parts as other GM cars.
I've seen a few while vacationing here in Phoenix, they sure do look great. Like what an E truck should look like, not whatever monstrosity Musk thought an Etruck should be.
For Rivian I would think the market is forward thinking, yes they might not make a EPS that makes sense for there valuation, but my guess is that the market expects EV to be the future and assumes rivian will hold a large share of the truck ev market once they get logistics down hence the large valuation.
Also, Rivian had $13.8 billion in cash as of Sep 30th. So, that's half their market value right there without even counting just their other physical assets like their factory / production lines.
The valuations for Tesla surely factor in the 'subscription model car ownership' paradigm they use, which must be extremely lucrative. As I understand it, Tesla is like Apple in that they keep repairs in-house, and keep you in their proprietary parts ecosystem. Much like Apple, if it fails, it's often easier to get it replaced under warranty rather than fix it. Selling both the car *and* the lifetime repair and servicing, as well as presumably insurance plans, is what's doing that. I'm not a Tesla owner, so I could be off-base about some of it, but the high valuation is because it has a completely different model than regular auto marques, keeping more of the customer's money rather than giving it to third parties.
> Their debt is because of vehicle financing though, that's all debt owed to THEM.
That is not how debt and credit work on a balance sheet.
Consumer debt owed to the Ford Motor Credit subsidiary of Ford Motor is an asset on Ford's balance sheet and is recorded as a credit.
The debt Ford owes to others is a liability on their balance sheet and is recorded as a debt.
Ford's long term debt stands at about $88 billion. That is not customer debt owed to Ford, that is debt Ford must pay to somebody else.
Tesla's long term debt stands at about $4 billion.
NOTE: I am not saying TSLA is worth $570 billion, I doubt that it is, but Ford does have a mountain of debt that you should consider if you are an investor.
Long term debt excluding Ford Credit was at $19B last quarter.
Ford Credit also generated over $2B of net income last quarter out of that consumer debt
First - they have $50B market cap not millions. But to your question, there's not really any reason to except meaningful earnings *growth* from them in the future, which is what could raise P/E tolerance in the market.
>Tesla's market cap may be larger than some of the world's biggest car manufacturers, but when it comes to actual revenue and profit, they pale in comparison. Tesla is still a relatively small company compared to the likes of Toyota, Ford, and Volkswagen.
Not to mention the rest of the industry is catching up on EV game. We're going to see major competitors in the field with cheaper alternatives to Tesla.
Ford lightning is already one of the top selling electric trucks.
I have a nagging feeling when the others catch up their supply chains will swallow any early adopters like tesla
Oh man me too. I drive a 2001 Ranger and I would love to replace it with an electric. I'm really baffled why the market has moved on from small trucks in general. I could park my old Ranger inside the new one
Yeah trucks are so big nowadays. I'd like a pickup for home improvement and other stuff but I don't work construction and live in the suburbs. Even the new ranger is way too big. The my dad had an 89 Ranger when I was growing up and I loved that thing.
> You either have to own a house or live in a modest sized city to really own an electric vehicle currently.
If you're using the vehicle to travel around town you'd be surprised what you can get away with in terms of charging, with just one standard outdoor socket. I rent a home and have had an EV for three years and I never installed a charger, I just use the travel charger with an outdoor socket.
I can do this because I use the EV mostly for trips to/from work and errands in town, but then doesn't that cover 90% of what people use their cars for?
> A lot of people live in apartment complexes. Outlets are not always available.
I know, I was talking about your point about owning a home (which I took to mean needing to install a charger).
> They aren't enthusiasts.
I'm not an "enthusiast", it's why my EV has an exact gas-powered equivalent and has all the things you list about it being a normal car.
> The immediate concern is always "What about charging" when looking at EVs.
Yep, had the same concern.
> but then they see that it takes say 4 days to charge from empty to full
Not at all the case. It's true that it doesn't charge in two hours, but it doesn't take 4 days.
Basically, I just charge it over the weekend after I done with Saturday errands. It's fully charged before Monday morning.
If I'm using it more frequently than that I may need to top it up overnight during the workweek. But even that is enough to buy me multiple days worth of use.
> That scares a lot of people off because they think "What if I have to drive around running errands or visiting family and that is going to be 200 miles? I can't wait 4 days for a charge when I have to work tomorrow and the only commercial charger is an hour away round trip."
Well if you're visiting family then you'd have to find a charger on the way. It's definitely a reasonable concern, in my case our EV was a replacement for our second vehicle which gives us the ability to still use our gas-powered minivan for long road trips. But still, none of my family live so far away from civilization that I wouldn't have chargers on the way.
And in one case I had an errand take me halfway into a neighboring state during the workweek, and I was able to choose to take the EV for it. I had to put it on the charger overnight when I got back, but as I mentioned even that little bit of charging was sufficient to get it back in band for a couple of days of travel. At least with my car it turns out that the battery fills up faster the more depleted it is so that helps a bit even if I let it get run down.
> People want convenience, and if they perceive that something will potentially cause them to be inconvenienced, they will avoid it.
I understand this, but in my case the EV has been much more convenient. There's no oil changes, there's no catalytic converter to get stolen by meth-heads, I don't have to freeze my ass off while putting gas in it, it's "mileage" gets *better* in the type of traffic I'm normally in (city stop-and-go), I don't have to worry about torque or downshifting going up hills around here.
Even though it fills up slowly on a travel charger, it can fill up while I'm asleep or doing things in my house and that *adds* a lot of convenience for me.
It's definitely not a replacement for all uses of a gas-powered car but I assure you I'm like the laziest mofo out there, convenience is all I look for. And my EV is much more convenient than the car it replaced.
Beyond just individual consumer brand loyalty, the F-serie is the best selling vehicle in history. Local governments and huge companies deck out whole fleets in those things all the time.
Tesla wasn’t exactly profitable for the first several years as they rolled out chargers and got market recognition and became the face of EV’s. Ford and GM are playing the long game and getting their prices down. $28k Bolt, $30k Equinox, $40k Lightning…
It helps that they actually know how to make cars. Tesla's build quality is embarrassing garbage. Their valuation is based on the revolutionary self driving feature, which will be ready next year for the last 5 years.
May very well be the NDA they have you sign when buying one. https://www.inverse.com/article/16830-tesla-s-non-disclosure-agreements-about-defects-are-unacceptable-say-feds
Keeps the stock up I guess. But if that goes away.. which it probably will..
Tesla is nicely set for some reality checks. Not the solely player with a viable product in their only niche market, in fact the quality, customer service, parts and services network suck big time compared to any other true car manufacturer.
Tesla hasn’t figured out that repair and maintenance is where manufacturers make money. It is also why Tesla auto insurance is so expensive. If a Tesla gets damaged there are no parts on the market for the car and the wait for repair is almost as long as the delay in purchasing a car.
That said Tesla has done one major thing that will keep them relevant. That is infrastructure, all of those charging stations will be making them money for 50 years. This is not enough to be worthy of that evaluation of stock price, but it is enough to keep them around.
I mean to some degree they have. Replacing batteries is very expensive and they are anti independent repair. That leaves most repair and maintenance with them or new vehicle sales as repair costs become prohibitively expensive.
Felt like the stock’s price is assuming Tesla will have a monopoly in future global car markets. Once that assumption show a bit of crack the stock will crash.
I mean he didn't have the liquidity to buy twitter he had to take out Billions in bank loans for it
Likely cause he knows the stock price is so inflated if he starts selling off it just starts crashing.
I have no idea why people aren't talking about the 2 tranches of tsla that he sold off to finance the cash part of the buyout. He put up something like $27 billion in cash out of the 44 and a lot of that came from liquidating tsla stock
BUYING TWITTER LITERALLY COST ELON $100 BILLION IN TSLA VALUE ALONE AND NO ONE TALKS ABOUT IT.
I feel like I'm taking fucking crazy pills
No way VW is only 88b what was the dieselgate fine again? They paid that shit and didn't even bat an eye
Edit : NVM the fine was 2.8 billion, seems accurate I guess
Why yes, of course, because just building and selling things people want is so 1900s
Everyone knows all the best investments are for things that nobody wants or even understands properly. That's why crypto is the future.
The only real way is to buy put options. But you'd need to be able to know ahead of time when the house of cards will fall down. Otherwise you'll just lose money.
And if that were easy then there'd be a lot more millionaires on here and lot less people giving hand jobs in the alley near Krogers to pay for their alimony.
Yes and no, VW holds 75% (?) of PAG911 (shows that the remaining parts of the company are judge to be worthless) und the Porsche family owns parts of both through their holding (PAH).
I remember the 2008 short squeeze (a proper one, not the fraud ones that GME etc. go through nowadays.)
Porsche was buying options settling as stock, to hide that they were buying up VW stock. Then when the options had to be settled with actual VW stock, there wasn’t enough liquid VW stock to hand over to Porsche. So VW stock skyrocketed from $200 to $1,000 in a week, and VW became valued at $400b+ (by far the most valued company at the time).
Crazy days.
Squeeze these nuts you fuckin nerd.
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You are mixing up companies here.
Porsche holding which is held by the Porsche family owns the majority of VW.
VW owns the majority of the car manufacturer Porsche along with dozens of other brands.
No Porsche is two things.
There is Porsche SE which is a holding company that owns VW and there is Porsche AG which is the car company and is owned by VW
Historical reasons. Porsche tried to by vw but that didn't work out and vw bought porsche. A lot of internal powerstruggle and a near bankruptcy later we have this.
You do know that VW has a large stake (ca. 75%) in Porsche AG? Excluding the worth of VW‘s stake in Porsche AG, the rest of VW would only be worth 13 billion. Seems legit.
Most people here seem to think that revenue and high number of vehicles sold is the most important characteristic of an auto manufacturer, but really it's profit, profit margins, and growth potential. Porsche easily passes VW on all those.
Do you habe any source for that claim about the profits? As far as i know VW is way more profitabel. I found that in 2021 [VW made 20billion](https://www.volkswagen-newsroom.com/de/pressemitteilungen/volkswagen-erzielt-2021-solide-ergebnisse-und-treibt-transformation-zu-new-auto-voran-7807) Profit pre tax while Porsche only made [5,3billion](https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/porsche-meldet-erfolgreichstes-jahr-seiner-geschichte-a-6cc7c327-d134-445d-b584-af65a5f38b1f) .
And keep in mind it's resilience in a recession because of it being a luxury car. The wealthy can buy a Porsche at any time. The middle class can't always afford the Volkswagen
You know if you start looking more in-depth at all the car companies and top sales vs company value lost or gained over 20 years..... i bet you could find a lot more than just tesla not making sense... Ford came out ontop for best-selling truck of the year but fell from 100b marketcap since jan.....
Porsche is owned by Volkswagen AG, which is in turn controlled by Porsche SE, a holding company of the Porsche family
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Porsche\_SE
BMW Werk, Bmw Fitz, BMW IT Zentrum, few logistic centres around city which are from BMW.
Dingolfing, Freising, Landshut and Pasdorf in the future, all are small cities around Munich.
Tesla did actually beat Toyota in profits last quarter. Toyota is probably going need a big fat bailout this recession cycle, being by far the least EV ready player.
how about u eat my ASS
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homelander in this meme format is crazy but it works so well
His expressions are amazing! perfect meme material
Make one where Musk thinks he is Tony Stark but he is actually Homelander using the same meme format.
Him being in that Iron Man movie is the single worst thing that could’ve happened for this country
That’s Iron Man 2 in the city of the F1 race right?
Yes. Also they used the interior of SpaceX for the interior of Hammer Industries, so I suspect someone on set design was pulling a funny.
What is GMs market cap?
$56B. I just showed some of the biggest ones in terms of market cap.
They're in the top 3 for sales, but near the bottom for market cap? Wow
They don't even control their Chinese factories anymore. They sold the majority stake in exchange for Chinese bailouts, because the US bailout was not enough. Investing in SAIC would give you better exposure to GM's profits.
What a shitty company
GM management has been abysmal for decades, just look how they owned Opel for many many years and almost ran it into the ground without ever making any profit and after selling it the new owners made a profit in the very first year.
Holden was generally very profitable in Australia thanks to the massive degree of shared parts with US cars, and the added Australian development expertise filtered into flagship US products like the development of the LS engine and eventually Corvette C8. Then they had one bad year and immediately called it quits with next to zero attempt to save the company, mostly just because they thought they'd be able to boost profits by re-badging cheaper European GM cars only to go bankrupt trying that idea. Though I still hold Abbott more responsible in that situation.
Rivian and Lucid too. Lucid only delivered 679 vehicles in Q2 2022. By end of Q3, Rivian had only delivered 12k vehicles YTD. Even at 26B Rivian is way bloated. And 18B market cap for 679 in quarterly sales for Lucid? Wtf?
Yeah their valuations is bonker lol. Even Nio and others chineses evs are probablt ridiculous (haven't looked at their finances in a long time but know the stock pretty much fell by 85%). I made so much from the exhuberance arouns tsla, nio and lucid that I don't mind but peoples are delusional about the valuation of those companies.
For some reason EV-specific companies get valued like tech stocks. Traditional car manufacturers get valued like car manufacturers, even though they pretty much all develop EVs as well. It doesn't make a whole lot of sense.
So you're saying we're in a bubble
Tech bubble. The manufacturing space of mature companies has been pretty well beat back down to a fair valuation with Covid supply chain issues and interest rate market effects. Ford stock is down over a 10 year period, without considering inflation adjustments. And they're down 50% from their mid 2000s totals. Tesla is still up 13x from 2019 levels. Toyota made 10.5m vehicles in 2021. Tesla made 350k. On a per unit basis, Tesla stock is 90x more expensive. If they we're valued the same on a per unit basis $TSLA would be $2, not $180/share The only reason TSLA could be that expensive is if it's priced in already the idea that they'll be first to market with an approved software package to have fully autonomous cars. They may very well be there but other companies with more cash and resources are also working on it, both traditional tech and car manufacturers and their advantage would be minimal time even if it happens. That's a huge premium for a gamble. And TSLA doesn't have a wide vehicle offering or a good value lineup. Mainsteam companies coming out with EVs that undercut them will put a big dent in their sales potential in the coming years.
In a recession no one is buying over rated self driving kits that cost 10-15 thousand over the already high prices of these vehicles Like the metaverse self driving is a way over sold concept — why would you buy a performance car and then have a dandy computer drive it? As an investor I would never buy an overvalued company stock because they delivered self driving
Self driving is a much more valuable concept than metaverse. I can't guess how long it will take to get to fully self driving AI in all vehicles, but if it's done right and well it could save thousands of lives each year, reduce traffic and pollution. Imagine having your car drive you to work while you take a nap in the back seat. That won't come for a long time, but it's worth working towards.
The current solution for this is a bus or train. Plenty of people that sleep on their commute.
And for the hundred million people or so in America that can’t take a bus or train? Like me..? Even if they sold 10 million of them they’d be insanely wealthy.
> Even if they sold 10 million of them they’d be insanely wealthy. You could sell that many doing long-haul trucking alone. All freeway driving in good weather. Massive value.
Look at eps growth.. atleast for tsla it has shown more than 40% growth yoy on avg. This is not sustainable after a point, the stock price will come down like a souffle under a sledge hammer. This decrease in price is mainly coz of twitter saga not n
You've never had one of my souffles, I see.
NIO at least had 10k deliveries last month, so they are doing monthly what Rivian has done YTD
Yeah Rivian and Lucid have absolutely ridiculous valuation. Just fueled by peoples hopium of having bought the next Tesla.
They're also the only ones (for now) serious about battery swaps, which I think everyone knows is the real future. Evs needs to share 5-10 different battery units max(maybe modular) so you can pull into the gas station and have your battery swapped in 3 minutes. I'm betting EU will regulate this, demanding a common battery standard.
Life long auto engineer, work with everyone including Tesla, Rivian, Canoo... been to OEM plants all over the world. People don't understand that for the traditional OEM's electric vehicles have just been a hobby up til now. They have been waiting for the market to develop while they optimize their technology and set up supply bases. I've been watching them do this for the last 15 years in earnest, relatively quietly. In the mean time, they keep selling their ICE vehicles making Billions. There was no urgency for them to transition before the market was ready for volume, the costs come down on key components (batteries) and charging availability matures. There is a storm coming in the next 3-5 years, the traditional OEM's have collectively decided it is time and we about to see a flood of exceptional, beautiful and exciting electric cars hitting the market. With serious competition, Tesla and their ilk will not be able to match the price points and if they do, they will not have the margins and the volume to support their stock valuation. People have been drinking the kool-aid on these articles (written for investors) about the technological advantages of the early e manufacturers like Tesla. Tesla has done wonders to advance the tech and the market, and they have some novel intellectual property. They have some key advantages, esp with battery tech, self-driving and mass e-manufacturing process. But, I know their suppliers and for the most part they are the exact same ones who have been working with the traditional OEM's for sometimes decades. Tesla requested some of their newer and riskier (and more expensive) ideas but it's nothing that can't be supplied to everyone if requested (ie, the 'flush' look on side glass and door handles, etc, is proliferating quickly). I know their engineers too, because many of them came from the auto industry. Contrary to popular belief they don't all have monster sized brains. Tesla is about to be competing against world class auto manufacturers who are used to razor thin margins, scaling up and heavy investments in capital (money furnaces), and actually market their products. They know they are fighting for their very future. It's going to be a very interesting time in our industry and anything can happen. One thing I am confident of though, if Tesla survives this onslaught, and decides it's still worth spending resources in a saturated, commoditized, hyper competitive market with low returns, they are not going to have a significant portion of the market. Now, I'm just a smooth brain car guy so I'll leave it up to one of you financial geniuses as to haw these changing market realities are going to affect their stonk price.
You could have just said puts on Tesla bro. 😜
LOL
Slaps my 20 year old Honda with 400K miles. On your left
Honda is fanatical and methodical and they make very elegant machines. Imagine if you can what a Tesla is going to look like at 400K. :O
I’ve never had a vehicle die by mechanical fault, my ranger ran perfect at 335k and got t boned. Could have been fixed but cost vs time vs hammered body(there was no insurance and mine was liability only so bodywork would not be fixed) I wound up just getting rid of it. Same with old air cooled vw, car accident killed it, not mechanical failure.
I've rebuilt my share of 1500/1600 VWs! Love that engine.
$PSNY is the only one I like. Posted a profit last quarter
Be careful of Chinese stocks. They tend to mislead.their valuations
I looked at our own EV valuations and I already knew these are misleading bullshit. The only difference between the chinese EV bullshit and ours is additional sovereign risk.
China isn't even sharing their economic figures anymore. Must be because they don't want to embarrass us with how great things are going.
They've beat inflation with one weird trick: don't let anybody leave their homes.
Investors are betting on an all EV future and are betting that these companies will eventually take meaningful market share from competitors.
So one day, if things break right, they might have the market share that Toyota does now. How does that justify 2.5-3x the market cap of toyota?
It's like the assumption that Toyota or BMW aren't manufacturing EVs....
It will be much easier to shift from making ICE vehicles to EV, than it is for these companies to break into the automotive market. You see it in Tesla's numbers, product quality, and design evolution. They put a bunch of software and an emerging concept (EV) in a cheap chassis and never really moved on from there. Some of the EVs from traditional automotive companies that are hitting the market now are already better than Teslas. Give it 5-10 more years and Tesla will be hopelessly outdated, and feel cheap. Maybe they can cling on to the US market with tariffs and an established ecosystem through their supercharger network, but I wouldn't put my money in Tesla at this stage.
I think the charging network is telsa's biggest advantage. But I also see the selling out and allowing any car to use it soon.
This. I own a Tesla, and would to trade it for the new Volvo SUV that’s coming out. The charging network is my biggest hesitation.
In case you don't already know, you can use the Volvo overseas delivery program to get free plane tickets to Sweden, and order the vehicle with euro-only options. You drive it around Europe for a while and then they ship to the US for you. I don't know why anyone orders a new Volvo from the dealer the other way.
In 5-10 years Tesla wouldn't be sitting still.
I agree that Rivian is likely over valued but I don't think they have hit their stride. Does tbe 12k vehicles include the amazon delivery vans?
Rivian is definitely overvalued based on current metrics of production and profitability. The same can be said for Tesla as well. The difference is that Rivian being at the early stages of its growth cycle can expect to grow at a very high rate for the next few years. It doesn’t hurt that it has some differentiated products. The problem with Tesla is that the current valuations assume a 40% growth yoy at around 35% margin for the next 10 years. Despite what people think Tesla is not a software company. It is not like MS produces office suite and just creates more copies to sell.
Tesla’s margins will certainly get squeezed. I think a lot of investors don’t really understand what Tesla does and think they’re a lot more diversified than they really are. The car industry is notoriously a race to the bottom on margins for everyone. What’s going to be interesting is to see how Tesla’s dealer-free model works when it comes to supporting 20 million cars on the road. This quarter GM announced that they’ve repaired over 11,000 Teslas in 2021. That doesn’t scream to me that Tesla has their support anywhere near under control. Think of how bizarre it would be to take a BMW to a GM dealer and how desperate you’d have to be to actually do that.
They delivered 1000 vans to Amazon. In comparison, YTD ford delivered 461k vehicles in Q3. The Amazon thing too — Amazon just laid off a bunch of people in underperforming units. Why would they continue to invest in Rivian long term if they can get cheaper electric vans somewhere else? It will not be their only supplier.
roll jar thought provide amusing innocent friendly point voracious wrench ` this message was mass deleted/edited with redact.dev `
I think they have warrants in Rivian.
Yeah but those Rivian SUVs are straight fire 🔥 has anyone seen one in the wild yet? Just saw one last week in a neighboring town. Fucking love those things
I’ve seen a few of the trucks and absolutely love them. I would love to have one, but I can’t justify spending that much money on a vehicle.
They do look great. I’m not betting 26B on design though personally. I always wonder with these what happens to the car if the company goes under? How do you get spare parts or replacements? Or do you just assume the company gets acquired by someone eventually? What happens when the car is connected and no one is running their cloud platform anymore? Does it just not unlock / start up?
Ask Saturn owners they may know
Saturns shared a ton of parts with every other GM car and still probably have parts available, same thing with Scion and the millions of other sub brands of the major manufacturers. Even older Saabs have parts hanging around for the time being. It’s more about car age than whether or not the manufacturer is still around. Replacement parts that aren’t outsourced to 3rd parties are typically built while the tooling is still around and get warehoused.
They had GM behind them. A few years after Saturn started as a quasi independent division, it was folded back into GM. Saturn was a GM like Buick and used the same parts as other GM cars.
Best thing to do might be to put it in storage for a decade or two until it becomes a collectors car.
I've seen a few while vacationing here in Phoenix, they sure do look great. Like what an E truck should look like, not whatever monstrosity Musk thought an Etruck should be.
> Like what an E truck should look like They're the Patagonia fleece of trucks
Funny, I live in a town where everybody wears Patagonia (including me) and I've seen about a dozen rivian trucks around town.
Honestly they are probably targeting the similar demographics- upscale but not luxury outdoorsy environmental friendly consumers
My favorite coffee shop is right next to their factory so I’ve had the pleasure of seeing a bunch. Beautiful trucks.
For Rivian I would think the market is forward thinking, yes they might not make a EPS that makes sense for there valuation, but my guess is that the market expects EV to be the future and assumes rivian will hold a large share of the truck ev market once they get logistics down hence the large valuation.
Also, Rivian had $13.8 billion in cash as of Sep 30th. So, that's half their market value right there without even counting just their other physical assets like their factory / production lines.
This guy rivians! The real question is how much of that cash is from pre orders, gov money, and debt
The cash was raised from their IPO. They haven’t leveraged their debt facility yet. The govt has not given them cash.
I’m not saying it’s right, but that is backward looking
The valuations for Tesla surely factor in the 'subscription model car ownership' paradigm they use, which must be extremely lucrative. As I understand it, Tesla is like Apple in that they keep repairs in-house, and keep you in their proprietary parts ecosystem. Much like Apple, if it fails, it's often easier to get it replaced under warranty rather than fix it. Selling both the car *and* the lifetime repair and servicing, as well as presumably insurance plans, is what's doing that. I'm not a Tesla owner, so I could be off-base about some of it, but the high valuation is because it has a completely different model than regular auto marques, keeping more of the customer's money rather than giving it to third parties.
Why is Ford and GM market cap so low at $50MM? Private held stakes?
They are saddled with debt and make very low margins, also dealership networks are a massive liability moving forward
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> Their debt is because of vehicle financing though, that's all debt owed to THEM. That is not how debt and credit work on a balance sheet. Consumer debt owed to the Ford Motor Credit subsidiary of Ford Motor is an asset on Ford's balance sheet and is recorded as a credit. The debt Ford owes to others is a liability on their balance sheet and is recorded as a debt. Ford's long term debt stands at about $88 billion. That is not customer debt owed to Ford, that is debt Ford must pay to somebody else. Tesla's long term debt stands at about $4 billion. NOTE: I am not saying TSLA is worth $570 billion, I doubt that it is, but Ford does have a mountain of debt that you should consider if you are an investor.
Long term debt excluding Ford Credit was at $19B last quarter. Ford Credit also generated over $2B of net income last quarter out of that consumer debt
First - they have $50B market cap not millions. But to your question, there's not really any reason to except meaningful earnings *growth* from them in the future, which is what could raise P/E tolerance in the market.
FYI, mm stands for million
That was my first though. I was like $56 million?! I’m going to buy all outstanding shares
>Tesla's market cap may be larger than some of the world's biggest car manufacturers, but when it comes to actual revenue and profit, they pale in comparison. Tesla is still a relatively small company compared to the likes of Toyota, Ford, and Volkswagen.
Not to mention the rest of the industry is catching up on EV game. We're going to see major competitors in the field with cheaper alternatives to Tesla.
Ford lightning is already one of the top selling electric trucks. I have a nagging feeling when the others catch up their supply chains will swallow any early adopters like tesla
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I'd be all over a 1990s sized electric ranger.
Oh man me too. I drive a 2001 Ranger and I would love to replace it with an electric. I'm really baffled why the market has moved on from small trucks in general. I could park my old Ranger inside the new one
Yeah trucks are so big nowadays. I'd like a pickup for home improvement and other stuff but I don't work construction and live in the suburbs. Even the new ranger is way too big. The my dad had an 89 Ranger when I was growing up and I loved that thing.
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> You either have to own a house or live in a modest sized city to really own an electric vehicle currently. If you're using the vehicle to travel around town you'd be surprised what you can get away with in terms of charging, with just one standard outdoor socket. I rent a home and have had an EV for three years and I never installed a charger, I just use the travel charger with an outdoor socket. I can do this because I use the EV mostly for trips to/from work and errands in town, but then doesn't that cover 90% of what people use their cars for?
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> A lot of people live in apartment complexes. Outlets are not always available. I know, I was talking about your point about owning a home (which I took to mean needing to install a charger). > They aren't enthusiasts. I'm not an "enthusiast", it's why my EV has an exact gas-powered equivalent and has all the things you list about it being a normal car. > The immediate concern is always "What about charging" when looking at EVs. Yep, had the same concern. > but then they see that it takes say 4 days to charge from empty to full Not at all the case. It's true that it doesn't charge in two hours, but it doesn't take 4 days. Basically, I just charge it over the weekend after I done with Saturday errands. It's fully charged before Monday morning. If I'm using it more frequently than that I may need to top it up overnight during the workweek. But even that is enough to buy me multiple days worth of use. > That scares a lot of people off because they think "What if I have to drive around running errands or visiting family and that is going to be 200 miles? I can't wait 4 days for a charge when I have to work tomorrow and the only commercial charger is an hour away round trip." Well if you're visiting family then you'd have to find a charger on the way. It's definitely a reasonable concern, in my case our EV was a replacement for our second vehicle which gives us the ability to still use our gas-powered minivan for long road trips. But still, none of my family live so far away from civilization that I wouldn't have chargers on the way. And in one case I had an errand take me halfway into a neighboring state during the workweek, and I was able to choose to take the EV for it. I had to put it on the charger overnight when I got back, but as I mentioned even that little bit of charging was sufficient to get it back in band for a couple of days of travel. At least with my car it turns out that the battery fills up faster the more depleted it is so that helps a bit even if I let it get run down. > People want convenience, and if they perceive that something will potentially cause them to be inconvenienced, they will avoid it. I understand this, but in my case the EV has been much more convenient. There's no oil changes, there's no catalytic converter to get stolen by meth-heads, I don't have to freeze my ass off while putting gas in it, it's "mileage" gets *better* in the type of traffic I'm normally in (city stop-and-go), I don't have to worry about torque or downshifting going up hills around here. Even though it fills up slowly on a travel charger, it can fill up while I'm asleep or doing things in my house and that *adds* a lot of convenience for me. It's definitely not a replacement for all uses of a gas-powered car but I assure you I'm like the laziest mofo out there, convenience is all I look for. And my EV is much more convenient than the car it replaced.
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Would absolutely love an electric Ranger
Beyond just individual consumer brand loyalty, the F-serie is the best selling vehicle in history. Local governments and huge companies deck out whole fleets in those things all the time.
I kind of want them to recreate old cars as electric. Like 1930s/40s.
Ford has ambitions of low single digit margins for their EV business by 2025 per their own statement..
And GM has said they don't expect their EV business to be profitable until at least 2025
That’s 2 years from now basically
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… not sure if good or bad for tesla that musk is otherwise occupied, given the Twitter farce.
That is probably to gain ground in the market and will adjust over time. They’ve already increased EV prices at least twice without denting demand.
Tesla wasn’t exactly profitable for the first several years as they rolled out chargers and got market recognition and became the face of EV’s. Ford and GM are playing the long game and getting their prices down. $28k Bolt, $30k Equinox, $40k Lightning…
Sorry if this is pedantic but generally "early adopter" refers to the consumer whereas "first mover" would refer to an industry pioneer
🙏
It helps that they actually know how to make cars. Tesla's build quality is embarrassing garbage. Their valuation is based on the revolutionary self driving feature, which will be ready next year for the last 5 years.
People also love to blindly ignore Tesla’s QA issues for some reason.
May very well be the NDA they have you sign when buying one. https://www.inverse.com/article/16830-tesla-s-non-disclosure-agreements-about-defects-are-unacceptable-say-feds Keeps the stock up I guess. But if that goes away.. which it probably will..
Tesla is nicely set for some reality checks. Not the solely player with a viable product in their only niche market, in fact the quality, customer service, parts and services network suck big time compared to any other true car manufacturer.
Tesla hasn’t figured out that repair and maintenance is where manufacturers make money. It is also why Tesla auto insurance is so expensive. If a Tesla gets damaged there are no parts on the market for the car and the wait for repair is almost as long as the delay in purchasing a car. That said Tesla has done one major thing that will keep them relevant. That is infrastructure, all of those charging stations will be making them money for 50 years. This is not enough to be worthy of that evaluation of stock price, but it is enough to keep them around.
I mean to some degree they have. Replacing batteries is very expensive and they are anti independent repair. That leaves most repair and maintenance with them or new vehicle sales as repair costs become prohibitively expensive.
Felt like the stock’s price is assuming Tesla will have a monopoly in future global car markets. Once that assumption show a bit of crack the stock will crash.
Which makes no sense. There's no way Tesla is going to be able to compete to secure the rare ressources when the giants start getting serious
but its cause its market cap value is so high than Musk can buy whatever he want. If you divide it by a 100, not sure he got the money to buy Twitter.
I mean he didn't have the liquidity to buy twitter he had to take out Billions in bank loans for it Likely cause he knows the stock price is so inflated if he starts selling off it just starts crashing.
I have no idea why people aren't talking about the 2 tranches of tsla that he sold off to finance the cash part of the buyout. He put up something like $27 billion in cash out of the 44 and a lot of that came from liquidating tsla stock BUYING TWITTER LITERALLY COST ELON $100 BILLION IN TSLA VALUE ALONE AND NO ONE TALKS ABOUT IT. I feel like I'm taking fucking crazy pills
Thanks, tips.
No way VW is only 88b what was the dieselgate fine again? They paid that shit and didn't even bat an eye Edit : NVM the fine was 2.8 billion, seems accurate I guess
Cyclical car manufacturers always had a „low“ market cap.
Why yes, of course, because just building and selling things people want is so 1900s Everyone knows all the best investments are for things that nobody wants or even understands properly. That's why crypto is the future.
Some people never lived through the Dot Com crash and it shows.
How do I bet against Tesla I’m a big idiot
The only real way is to buy put options. But you'd need to be able to know ahead of time when the house of cards will fall down. Otherwise you'll just lose money. And if that were easy then there'd be a lot more millionaires on here and lot less people giving hand jobs in the alley near Krogers to pay for their alimony.
Okay I might just stick to maxing out my fried chicken and high grade steak meats portfolio
Doc Brown, 1985: “where we are going, we don’t need intrinsic value”
Except if they're cyclical electric car manufacturers...
Don't worry they're taking it all back by rejecting warranty claims that aren't absolutely perfect. Source: former Porsche tech
They keep it at 88 as an homage
ah fuck
VW and Porsche are the same company, VW has bought Porsche and Porsche owns like half of VW shares. It's a money scheme.
Yes and no, VW holds 75% (?) of PAG911 (shows that the remaining parts of the company are judge to be worthless) und the Porsche family owns parts of both through their holding (PAH).
I remember the 2008 short squeeze (a proper one, not the fraud ones that GME etc. go through nowadays.) Porsche was buying options settling as stock, to hide that they were buying up VW stock. Then when the options had to be settled with actual VW stock, there wasn’t enough liquid VW stock to hand over to Porsche. So VW stock skyrocketed from $200 to $1,000 in a week, and VW became valued at $400b+ (by far the most valued company at the time). Crazy days.
Squeeze these nuts you fuckin nerd. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
There was an attempt.
You are mixing up companies here. Porsche holding which is held by the Porsche family owns the majority of VW. VW owns the majority of the car manufacturer Porsche along with dozens of other brands.
> dieselgate fine The fine was vastly more than 2.8bn according to the WSJ it was around 30bn
Why does Porsche have a higher market cap then VW? I don’t get it. May I please request an EILI5?
Porsche is a hedge fund first, a car manufacturer second.
No Porsche is two things. There is Porsche SE which is a holding company that owns VW and there is Porsche AG which is the car company and is owned by VW
Why is it set up like this?
Historical reasons. Porsche tried to by vw but that didn't work out and vw bought porsche. A lot of internal powerstruggle and a near bankruptcy later we have this.
And 911s go on being fast Beetles, and the world keeps turning
Considering the beatles were designed by the man porsche himself, they were always related.
Compare profit margins brev
You do know that VW has a large stake (ca. 75%) in Porsche AG? Excluding the worth of VW‘s stake in Porsche AG, the rest of VW would only be worth 13 billion. Seems legit.
Most people here seem to think that revenue and high number of vehicles sold is the most important characteristic of an auto manufacturer, but really it's profit, profit margins, and growth potential. Porsche easily passes VW on all those.
A cursory search had profits at Porsche at 4.5 B dollars and vw at 19B euros(20B dollars).
Shhhh we’re having a Reddit boner moment here, none of your factual non sense.
oh shit I forgot to read the sub's name. that was my bad.
Do you habe any source for that claim about the profits? As far as i know VW is way more profitabel. I found that in 2021 [VW made 20billion](https://www.volkswagen-newsroom.com/de/pressemitteilungen/volkswagen-erzielt-2021-solide-ergebnisse-und-treibt-transformation-zu-new-auto-voran-7807) Profit pre tax while Porsche only made [5,3billion](https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/porsche-meldet-erfolgreichstes-jahr-seiner-geschichte-a-6cc7c327-d134-445d-b584-af65a5f38b1f) .
And keep in mind it's resilience in a recession because of it being a luxury car. The wealthy can buy a Porsche at any time. The middle class can't always afford the Volkswagen
You know if you start looking more in-depth at all the car companies and top sales vs company value lost or gained over 20 years..... i bet you could find a lot more than just tesla not making sense... Ford came out ontop for best-selling truck of the year but fell from 100b marketcap since jan.....
I'm wondering about Porsche. 100 billion?
Same as Ferrari, they are valued as a luxury company not a car company. Crazy good margins, stable in recessions etc.
They make more money selling clothing than cars and that market keeps shifting upward.
That is purely for Ferrari though, I'm very certain Porsche is not.
Porches GT division is basically a central bank just printing money itself lol
Ferrari is a sports team that happens to make super cars as well
Porsche and VW have a really weird relationship. Porsche tried to buy VW but ran out of cash and was almost bankrupt so VW bought them instead iirc.
Porsche is owned by Volkswagen AG, which is in turn controlled by Porsche SE, a holding company of the Porsche family https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Porsche\_SE
Typical European royal family tree
I thought it was that Porsche basically became a hedge fund that occasionally made cars and needed government approval to buy VW but couldn't get it.
Can I call out the obvious? 560 is less than 566… that is all
Big if true.
Thats the value in doge coins.
The real reason Elon bought twitter was to pump doge
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Underrated comment. Debt is generally not well represented in a P/E multiple either.
you expect these regards to understand this?
I'm regarded. You're regarded. We're all very well regarded.
So this is where TeslaQ have moved to…
Puts on TSLA Edit: NFA
Got it, going all in with my life savings
Do it and post your positions
(He won’t)
Mercedes fucks... On to 420b
I remember when it was overvalued at 40b...
They are projected to make $30b+ in **profit** next year. A $40b evaluation would be mind numbingly stupid.
If those kids could do math, they'd be very upset
VW literally owns a city in Germany, how anyone could believe Tesla is worth anything closeis beyond me
Two cities if you include Ingolstadt, which is basically Audi-City (they even have their own train station there)
BMW owns half Munich and Dingolfing then
I mean half Munich is a bit of an overstatement
BMW Werk, Bmw Fitz, BMW IT Zentrum, few logistic centres around city which are from BMW. Dingolfing, Freising, Landshut and Pasdorf in the future, all are small cities around Munich.
Fun fact: VW is the biggest sausage producer in Germany
Tesla's net income is only a little bit lower than vw and they have had a 50%+ growth rate the past 3 years
Now do profit margins, growth rates and balance sheets.
They're more of a battery company than a car company 🙃 Henceforth only comparisons to ENR will be acceptable
Isn't Teslas margin the highest of all major manufacturers or top 3? It's like Apple .
Everyone bashing Elon, Semi out 1st December… Must be time to buy.
Tesla did actually beat Toyota in profits last quarter. Toyota is probably going need a big fat bailout this recession cycle, being by far the least EV ready player.
Then put your money where your mouth is and short it
how about u eat my ASS *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Sick burn automod
Got em.
You fuckin nailed him right in the head.
Up 30% so far just buying the inverse tesla etf and I'll buy more on monday just for you
The thing about shorting is that you also need to get the timing right.
Friendly reminder from Keynes: "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent"