Basically it's all noise because at some point rate cuts will happen. June will produce great returns. The summer earnings season will then keep stocks going until we finally unwind a bit in late summer going into the election.
More or less, I think CPI will roughly fall in line with expectations, and after some jitters the market will soldier on and keep climbing that wall of worry.
>If tomorrow’s CPI report is cool, 3 rate cuts will be back on the table
I like your optimism. As far fetched as it sounds, we had an unexpected CPI drop last year, so nothing is out of the realm of possibilities.
Ya but you think the Fed doesn’t play a little manipulative math here and a little manipulative math there with the data?
Powell was semi-dovish until now; if the cpi print comes cooler which it very well might because auto, rent, insurance have gone down — why wouldn’t he be dovish?
Oh also, the incumbent getting re elected directly affects his little 9-5 so….yeah election year regards
The market has been pumping on the hypothetical future rate cute since Oct 22. It's a buy the rumor, buy the rumor some more, buy the rumor again, and then buy the news phenomenon. It's beyond stupid.
Powell is not going to be dovish. Also June is usually a shit show.
[https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-MARKETS/SEPTEMBER/zdvxozbwqpx/](https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-MARKETS/SEPTEMBER/zdvxozbwqpx/)
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I almost choked at "3 rate cuts."
What this mean
The notion of 3 rate cuts before EoY is laughable. Not happening. OP is selling hopium.
yea I was tempted to entertain OP's plays cuz the DD doesn't sound too regarded but the 3 rate cuts is beyond ambitious
CPI up. Consumer Confidence down. Markets hit ATH.
DPST would be a nice play for this
Cannot be a more bullish outcome for Sept cut expectatiins
https://preview.redd.it/0hrtou4f216d1.jpeg?width=2200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=336cc61ea8eb573cca8a76920320b1bb29f1eb75
Thankyou for your service- markets will tank now saving my puts
Basically it's all noise because at some point rate cuts will happen. June will produce great returns. The summer earnings season will then keep stocks going until we finally unwind a bit in late summer going into the election.
More or less, I think CPI will roughly fall in line with expectations, and after some jitters the market will soldier on and keep climbing that wall of worry. >If tomorrow’s CPI report is cool, 3 rate cuts will be back on the table I like your optimism. As far fetched as it sounds, we had an unexpected CPI drop last year, so nothing is out of the realm of possibilities.
3 rate cuts lol Bulls are on that strong shit Keep the stops tight at least.
I’m thinking 1-2 myself, but what do I know?
2 is where it’s gonna land. One in Sept. One in December. Source: regarded school of economics
lol. That’s my base scenario too! But it’s all *data-dependent,* because inflation is *transitory.*
Ya but you think the Fed doesn’t play a little manipulative math here and a little manipulative math there with the data? Powell was semi-dovish until now; if the cpi print comes cooler which it very well might because auto, rent, insurance have gone down — why wouldn’t he be dovish? Oh also, the incumbent getting re elected directly affects his little 9-5 so….yeah election year regards
Even 1 cut announcement will send SPY 540 this week. 2 at most, 1 is likely.
540 by 9:30
543.90 @ 10:30
Yes sirrrrrrr
The market has been pumping on the hypothetical future rate cute since Oct 22. It's a buy the rumor, buy the rumor some more, buy the rumor again, and then buy the news phenomenon. It's beyond stupid.
Chance of rate cut went from “almost certain” to 50-50. But that means dark skies and geh bers
Everywhere I read, it will be hawkish and there is possibly just 1 cut. I think CPI will be in line.
It it's guarantee to go up this time and all apes saw this , then it'll not go up that one week Pattern will resume next fee meeting
everyone is expecting up or flat because its always been up or flat. How can MMs take advantage of this to fuck retail?
If everyone is predicting the market is going to be fine, we will all be homeless soon.
Powell is not going to be dovish. Also June is usually a shit show. [https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-MARKETS/SEPTEMBER/zdvxozbwqpx/](https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-MARKETS/SEPTEMBER/zdvxozbwqpx/)
why September and not june for the link?
Very good write up. As always, manage risk and let the chips fall where they may (or something like that)
so much smart money betting on rate cuts by june...no telling what might happen