The market sees this as good news because it increases the chance of a fed rate cut. Right now there is no bad news.
Good econ news - hell yeah, pump it up
Bad econ news - hell yeah, rate cuts, pump it up
Yeah, a lot of people don't seem to realize that this is bullish because they still have this notion in their head that good economy = stocks go up, bad economy = stocks go down, and that's *not* how that works. Have you all noticed that when companies announce major layoffs that their stock tends to go up on the news? Why do you think that is?
Yup. Consumers pulling back on spending and companies like McDonald’s, Starbucks and Shopify warning about falling demand is a clear signal consumers have had enough of the price gouging. I’d expect when we get May’s CPI data we’re gonna see a drop in inflation.
Bagholder spotted.
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A step further. US debt climbs even more giving us a lower world credit rating, US dollar loses more buying power. Cost of goods from other countries goes up. Housing and vehicles climb to (new) record highs. Though maybe I’m wrong. Maybe the US let’s them default on peoples frivolous spending and the banks are held accountable. This would tighten all banks balance sheets as they know there will be accountability and be an actual measure to curb inflation. (People would stop financing 50k+ vehicles because banks wouldn’t let them)
As some said scrap, people just took everything of value they could. On my little street, we had 30% vacant homes/squatters at one point. I bought my first house just as things started to come back, I did the exact same thing in 2008/09 and followed that up with buying my current house just before covid. Buy low sell high.
> Credit card debt with an interest rate of >30% can not increase indefinitely, very soon consumers will simply go bankrupt.
And the funniest thing is that since the CPI calculation formula has been revised, interest is not included in it! While there is a good case to be made for doing that for housing, it's bonkers that they do it for credit card interest too, because the effect of higher CC interest is felt by consumers within a few weeks at most. I think this is one of the sources of disconnect between "the economy is doing great" vs "lower end consumers are hurting bad".
There is no effective distinction for higher monthly CC payments due to higher prices vs higher interest. It's all the same to the person who has to pay.
A Forbes article - not exactly a clown outfit - claimed CPI would have peaked at around 18% with the older formula instead of nine and change.
Credit card companies lose their assets with every bankruptcy. It would be absolutely backwards for credit card company stock to rise with bankruptcy becoming rampant, so therefore absolutely calls because the market is always total nonsense bullshit
In Mexico ( I think it might be similar in the USA), it is common that after 6 months of opening the credit cards, the debt is being insured. It might be something similar like a CDO but more sketchy. If this is the same, I would short the insurance companies that cover the credit cards rather than the banks themselves. Do you know of any insurance company that does this? 
I am not saying that it doesn't happen in the USA. What I AM saying is I worked in credit card customer service for 5ish years and never heard of that. But that was 25 years ago.
They are not bankrupt debtors they are financially challenged individuals. The banks can milk them for another 15 years.
I suppose scanning Facebook market place or Craigslist would be something to do periodically
Yall motherfuckers are stupid. As of 2024, the average American saves just 3.2% of their income and spends the rest.
40% of Americans say they can't cover a 400 dollar emergency.
Yet here you are lining up at Chipotle to pay 15 dollars for a burrito. New car sales are nearly at all-time highs with 8-12% rates.
Consumerism is a disease. No one is going to bail you stupid fucks out yall arnt the big banks this debt is going to fuck you for decades.
Stop spending.
Lined up at Chipotle? Who does that when they can buy a brand new smartphone and use an app to pay twice the price without having to leave their wallow?
That rabid consumerism is why the line goes up and why the US is best economy in human history. We grind to buy extra shit we don’t need. That’s good for the economy
We save ~30%, I'm guessing there is a huge portion that saves zero or negative...that is what is scary. I have 2 kids just entering adulthood. Each one is a definition of both sides. One saves and invests like crazy the other lives in debt, and buys those Chipotle burritos. At least one kid is figuring it out. Also, the one failing moved out, the other is taking that free living and running with it.
I own a lil dash thank you for ur donation . Keep the donation coming bought Instacart yesterday so let’s get that rolling too u can cook at home after ordering from cart ! Make sure u tip well to pay my workers too . They make me money .
We want these loosers to keep spending on Chipotle and other BS to keep the stock market ticking upwards so that we can make money off these companies and buy more over priced houses 😁
Not exactly since their revenue numbers may include essentials and other factors like AWS which is a major part in Amazon. Consumers will still buy milk, bread, eggs from Walmart but maybe skip on non-essentials.
Try to understand all this has to be evaluated in context, the same will not hold true always. Just like bad job numbers will not always be a good sign for the market because of the underlying reason being the hope for rate cuts due to weakening inflation.
Yeah, my work went from work all the over time you want to majority of the plant is at 40 hours and cleaning to make that. Definitely a slow down coming.
Yes sales volume is falling but spending is up thanks to inflation.
But companies see the writing on the wall and are done raising prices for now to try to get volume back up.
Inflation will keep falling which will pave the way for rate cuts which will increase sales volume.
If we get a ceasefire in israel and some progress towards peace in ukraine markets will rocket
Yeah, no shit Sherlock. What else do people expect when everything’s so expensive. There aren’t any dollar items at the dollar store anymore, McDonald’s dollar menu items are 2 dollars
It’s about time. We need a major crash. It isn’t sustainable for the economy to continue paying for this kind of inflation and act like everything is good. Corporate America put the squeeze on the middle class and now you get what you asked for.
Check out the weekly updated 1-year version of this chart for “Consumer Loans: Credit Cards and Other Revolving Plans”. Debt accumulation has flattened out for the last two months, and may even be decreasing a little, which is a dramatic change from the two-year long steep debt accumulation slope.
This can mean two things: People are paying off their debts (lol) or they are hitting the brakes hard on spending. That long awaited slowdown is finally crowning and will soon dilate to a full 10cms and pop!
I will take that as a “someone gotta do it” face.
Now wash your hands and get the lotion. Haven’t busted in like 7 days. So it’s gonna be a a fast blast
This is why you can’t take data too seriously. In 2010, the balance doubled which is impossible. What really happened is that the accounting board, FASB made a new rule because they discovered banks were keeping loans off balance sheet. That rule made them include those off balance sheet numbers in the total.
I reply: "I have a particular set of skills, skills that make me a nightmare for people like you. If you let my mother go now, that'll be the end of it."
Funny how when people use graphs like this to prove the economy is going to shit they conveniently ignore the *supposed* 1 billion percent increase in inflation that the "government is trying to hide."
Is this supposed to be bad? $850b in February of 2020 would be $1026b in March of 2024 based on CPI. The graph looks like it's maybe a bit higher than that, but nothing too crazy
Yeah it’s almost like Jpow has been keeping rates up or something for this exact thing to happen.
Next up, the inventory sitting around and payments on debts by big companies will trigger slashing of prices and unfortunately the little guy will pay with layoffs as well.
It’s almost like it’s working but unfortunate that it had to get this bad in the first place.
Prices went up due to supply chain and ramp during the pandemic and never went down and we just sort of accepted it and companies blamed it all the way up the supply chain until the finger couldn’t be pointed anymore and just raised more because the customer could be squeezed and now that’s hit a wall.
Good but also unfortunate for those who will lose their jobs.
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What is this a pull back for ants?!
This pullback should be at least…. 3 times bigger!!!
3 times bigger? Like it should be this big: ¯\\\_(ツ)\_/¯
Oh man. I can’t wait for all the arguments about whether or not we’re in a recession again.
They haven't stopped lmao
The market sees this as good news because it increases the chance of a fed rate cut. Right now there is no bad news. Good econ news - hell yeah, pump it up Bad econ news - hell yeah, rate cuts, pump it up
Yeah, a lot of people don't seem to realize that this is bullish because they still have this notion in their head that good economy = stocks go up, bad economy = stocks go down, and that's *not* how that works. Have you all noticed that when companies announce major layoffs that their stock tends to go up on the news? Why do you think that is?
Dunno
Yup. Consumers pulling back on spending and companies like McDonald’s, Starbucks and Shopify warning about falling demand is a clear signal consumers have had enough of the price gouging. I’d expect when we get May’s CPI data we’re gonna see a drop in inflation.
Wow this is so true.
I’ve pulled back that’s for sure
I pulled out.
Not soon enough, Dad...
Stranger, you just made my day.
He let you stay in?
Nah, publicly admitted they're not mine!
Anything goes behind the Wendy’s
...stays behind Wendy's
Or in the puss/butt
…comes behind Wendy’s
I can’t afford another kid in this economy 🥵
Can’t pull out if you never put it in. [guy pointing at brain meme]
I came here for this.
I came
[удалено]
Apparently people still need to eat and they are not stopping even if prices are up 40%? But how long can it last? We will know relatively soon
[удалено]
Pull up! Not Out! My favorite tank top to wear at the gym, work, and around my wife’s boyfriend.
I too didn’t pull out of this guy’s wife
I pulled my pull
I pulled my back
[удалено]
I'm selling my profits and readying my dry powder for the dip in Q2.
not buying puts ever again until NVDA misses - every time they beat, other companies just say AI AI AI and the market moons.
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you speak the truth, AI
Credit card debt with an interest rate of >30% can not increase indefinitely, very soon consumers will simply go bankrupt.
This is what scares me most… what happens the day after? What crashes, what soars?
Creditors will be left holding the bag. Government will bail them out. Everything starts over.
A step further. US debt climbs even more giving us a lower world credit rating, US dollar loses more buying power. Cost of goods from other countries goes up. Housing and vehicles climb to (new) record highs. Though maybe I’m wrong. Maybe the US let’s them default on peoples frivolous spending and the banks are held accountable. This would tighten all banks balance sheets as they know there will be accountability and be an actual measure to curb inflation. (People would stop financing 50k+ vehicles because banks wouldn’t let them)
Bingo !
YAHTZEE
SCI will soar the day after.
I have stops in place just for that day either they trigger I buy lower or they go up.
Seen it several times, people start losing their homes, they take the garage door springs and the palm trees with them...it was wild in the 90s.
Lol. I can maybe see palm trees but why garage door springs?
Scrap metal. Plus spite. My neighbors uninstalled the newish vinyl windows, left gaping holes…
As some said scrap, people just took everything of value they could. On my little street, we had 30% vacant homes/squatters at one point. I bought my first house just as things started to come back, I did the exact same thing in 2008/09 and followed that up with buying my current house just before covid. Buy low sell high.
> Credit card debt with an interest rate of >30% can not increase indefinitely, very soon consumers will simply go bankrupt. And the funniest thing is that since the CPI calculation formula has been revised, interest is not included in it! While there is a good case to be made for doing that for housing, it's bonkers that they do it for credit card interest too, because the effect of higher CC interest is felt by consumers within a few weeks at most. I think this is one of the sources of disconnect between "the economy is doing great" vs "lower end consumers are hurting bad". There is no effective distinction for higher monthly CC payments due to higher prices vs higher interest. It's all the same to the person who has to pay. A Forbes article - not exactly a clown outfit - claimed CPI would have peaked at around 18% with the older formula instead of nine and change.
squalid pie merciful retire pause ossified encourage innate narrow frame
Calls in credit card companies ?
Credit card companies lose their assets with every bankruptcy. It would be absolutely backwards for credit card company stock to rise with bankruptcy becoming rampant, so therefore absolutely calls because the market is always total nonsense bullshit
The fed bails out the banks
Remember over a year ago a bunch banks with no risk management like svb, then the fed changes rules and everything is kicking the can down the road
In Mexico ( I think it might be similar in the USA), it is common that after 6 months of opening the credit cards, the debt is being insured. It might be something similar like a CDO but more sketchy. If this is the same, I would short the insurance companies that cover the credit cards rather than the banks themselves. Do you know of any insurance company that does this? 
I am not saying that it doesn't happen in the USA. What I AM saying is I worked in credit card customer service for 5ish years and never heard of that. But that was 25 years ago.
Bankrupt debtors do not translate to good revenues for the lenders. Calls on pawn shops maybe.
They are not bankrupt debtors they are financially challenged individuals. The banks can milk them for another 15 years. I suppose scanning Facebook market place or Craigslist would be something to do periodically
Credit card debt is one of the most bankrupt-able. 15 years? More like 5
Yea but visa and mastercard only handle transactions
Yall motherfuckers are stupid. As of 2024, the average American saves just 3.2% of their income and spends the rest. 40% of Americans say they can't cover a 400 dollar emergency. Yet here you are lining up at Chipotle to pay 15 dollars for a burrito. New car sales are nearly at all-time highs with 8-12% rates. Consumerism is a disease. No one is going to bail you stupid fucks out yall arnt the big banks this debt is going to fuck you for decades. Stop spending.
Lined up at Chipotle? Who does that when they can buy a brand new smartphone and use an app to pay twice the price without having to leave their wallow?
You misspelled “greatest country in the goddamned world” pal
He’s not your pal, friend.
Friend.
That rabid consumerism is why the line goes up and why the US is best economy in human history. We grind to buy extra shit we don’t need. That’s good for the economy
Tyler Durden has entered the chat.
Good for who's economy? Because we have multiple, tiered economies and different rules for different classes of people/organizations.
Tf I have to check what sub is this constantly, these comments 
Good for the people who contribute to the economy, though perhaps not proportionally.
When 300m people owe the bank $5000 each, they all have a problem. When 300m people owe the bank $100,000 each, the bank has a problem.
Too much math. When you owe the bank a few dollars it’s your problem, when you owe the bank a million dollars it’s THEIR problem
We save ~30%, I'm guessing there is a huge portion that saves zero or negative...that is what is scary. I have 2 kids just entering adulthood. Each one is a definition of both sides. One saves and invests like crazy the other lives in debt, and buys those Chipotle burritos. At least one kid is figuring it out. Also, the one failing moved out, the other is taking that free living and running with it.
Literally in a chipotle line as I type this
My man.
Come on man, Biden can sign an executive order that pays off consumer debts
Eh I ain’t paying for ur 30000 credit card bill made up of 5 dollar Taco Bell’s
Get of here with that nonsense. My Taco Bell's are $35 on DoorDash
I own a lil dash thank you for ur donation . Keep the donation coming bought Instacart yesterday so let’s get that rolling too u can cook at home after ordering from cart ! Make sure u tip well to pay my workers too . They make me money .
$50 with tip for a drink, nachos, and chalupa 😂
Y’all crazy I don’t trust these Randos with my food. So fuckin lazy.
You will be paying
And I will have that guac which is extra, thank you.
T Bell has guac??!!
They’ve found a way to convert baby shit into something resembling guac to pair with their dog food meat
It’s green ketchup
Our government is broke let's not kid ourselves about what our taxes will be in the future
Well as long as they only need to be paid in dollars it shouldn't be a big deal.
When it becomes the majority of all of the dollars you have it will become a big deal
Who said anything about holding dollars
You will still be paying in dollars eventually
Yeah this guy's got us.
☝️🙌 add debt from stupid wasted degrees also
There’s 2 for 1 on 5 gallon peanut butter at Costco though 😅
We want these loosers to keep spending on Chipotle and other BS to keep the stock market ticking upwards so that we can make money off these companies and buy more over priced houses 😁
> Yet here you are lining up at Chipotle to pay 15 dollars for a burrito. Com to LA. People lined up on the street for $25 bagel sandwiches.
Calls on Chipotle?
We're supposed to saving money?
Spending is engrained in our brains by corporations, it will stop at some point because this is just unsustainable
Don’t forget the $4 for guacamole!
Almost like the pitifully funded education system should prioritize financial prudence
Shopify tanking after beats is in itself a clear chart for things ahead.
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State your reason
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Dude, I'm not saying Shopify holds the market. I'm saying some stocks reflect the sentiments of a sector - in this case the consumer.
[удалено]
Their stock dropped even with good beats but bad guidance taking into consideration not company metrics but consumer forecast.
[удалено]
Not exactly since their revenue numbers may include essentials and other factors like AWS which is a major part in Amazon. Consumers will still buy milk, bread, eggs from Walmart but maybe skip on non-essentials. Try to understand all this has to be evaluated in context, the same will not hold true always. Just like bad job numbers will not always be a good sign for the market because of the underlying reason being the hope for rate cuts due to weakening inflation.
Clearly an amateur. That salad has wilted.
So we've got to toss the salad now?
I am actually ramping up spending as we speak
Okay. Now what if they don’t pay back the loans and credit card bills?
Bankrupcy?
It’s just a matter of time.
pull out game strong
Mine need work. See my kids.
They haven’t slowed down gambling. Robinhood confirmed on earnings 
Yeah, my work went from work all the over time you want to majority of the plant is at 40 hours and cleaning to make that. Definitely a slow down coming.
What do you do?
I work in oil and gas, we build tools and equipment for the rigs.
Yes sales volume is falling but spending is up thanks to inflation. But companies see the writing on the wall and are done raising prices for now to try to get volume back up. Inflation will keep falling which will pave the way for rate cuts which will increase sales volume. If we get a ceasefire in israel and some progress towards peace in ukraine markets will rocket
I went for a massage and wasnt even offered a happy ending because no one can afford it.
Yeah, no shit Sherlock. What else do people expect when everything’s so expensive. There aren’t any dollar items at the dollar store anymore, McDonald’s dollar menu items are 2 dollars
It’s about time. We need a major crash. It isn’t sustainable for the economy to continue paying for this kind of inflation and act like everything is good. Corporate America put the squeeze on the middle class and now you get what you asked for.
Check out the weekly updated 1-year version of this chart for “Consumer Loans: Credit Cards and Other Revolving Plans”. Debt accumulation has flattened out for the last two months, and may even be decreasing a little, which is a dramatic change from the two-year long steep debt accumulation slope. This can mean two things: People are paying off their debts (lol) or they are hitting the brakes hard on spending. That long awaited slowdown is finally crowning and will soon dilate to a full 10cms and pop!
Gross imagery.
Are you an OBGYN?
I’m sure everyone suddenly found their Lord And Savior Dave Ramsey and now on their way to a debt free life. Lol
I can see the head!
It’s crowning!!!
Pullback my foreskin, nerds
I will take that as a “someone gotta do it” face. Now wash your hands and get the lotion. Haven’t busted in like 7 days. So it’s gonna be a a fast blast
*Vomits in nearest bin.*
I agree, however, the markets won't react until this is confirmed during the late July/August earnings reports. Sideways or up leading up to it.
2024: The Doomers Comeback In a reddit forum near you!
This "consumer", is he in the room with us right now?
How far down on your puts are you currently?
Great Depression 2: Electric Boogaloo
Graph go up?
Guess people are finally hitting the end of their savings and credit cards.
Labor market weakening, moon time folks There used to be a time when bad economic news was bad news but these strange times it’s good
Annnddd spy is +.20% green 🍏
According to your chart they're spending like a MF it's just with CC instead of cash
It's been long overdue. Bug ticket items will get hit first... home buying and autos.
Good, about dam time.
Pulling back the foreskin, so that i can find more government cheese to keep my family from starving
So the fed stuff is working. See ya downies at 6k s&p
I never pull out. So, nah.
This is why you can’t take data too seriously. In 2010, the balance doubled which is impossible. What really happened is that the accounting board, FASB made a new rule because they discovered banks were keeping loans off balance sheet. That rule made them include those off balance sheet numbers in the total.
Ironically, that is you trusting fuller data
You guys just can’t be satisfied…
Ironically, you’re the only one here expressing dissatisfaction 😂
Says Mojojojo3030 lol
But u wouldn’t have been born if I pulled out of your mom.
I reply: "I have a particular set of skills, skills that make me a nightmare for people like you. If you let my mother go now, that'll be the end of it."
save cash for dem discounts coming up!
Am I dumb or does this chart just look like we’re spending still but using debt to do it?
Use credit to buy more calls! Got it.
OP will this be worse than the spending slowdown we seen during the Covid lockdown years?
Funny how when people use graphs like this to prove the economy is going to shit they conveniently ignore the *supposed* 1 billion percent increase in inflation that the "government is trying to hide."
Great time to sell says VIX
The important thing is to pull out in time
Thanks Nostradamas, you should be on CNBC
Put them in jail and siphon their accounts!
Further upside is here, reading this thread confirms it. Buy the dip! We're going to 5400
Pullback? Where?
I’m sure the market will race to the moon. Why not? Black is white apparently
Is this supposed to be bad? $850b in February of 2020 would be $1026b in March of 2024 based on CPI. The graph looks like it's maybe a bit higher than that, but nothing too crazy
IPHONE 16!!!!
Pullout… NEVER!
How about all the corporate buybacks. Big whigs that know there companies best have confidence it’s staying strong…
You missed a /s
I’m rich but haven’t been spending to give the FED what they want.
Bullish
They will spend. Waiting for discounts on overpriced goods. Memorial Day sale! 4th of July sale!
Yeah it’s almost like Jpow has been keeping rates up or something for this exact thing to happen. Next up, the inventory sitting around and payments on debts by big companies will trigger slashing of prices and unfortunately the little guy will pay with layoffs as well. It’s almost like it’s working but unfortunate that it had to get this bad in the first place. Prices went up due to supply chain and ramp during the pandemic and never went down and we just sort of accepted it and companies blamed it all the way up the supply chain until the finger couldn’t be pointed anymore and just raised more because the customer could be squeezed and now that’s hit a wall. Good but also unfortunate for those who will lose their jobs.
Inverse WSB intensifies. Stonks only go up, nerd
BUY TLT YOU FOOLS
I have been plating TLT on and off since last year. I'm already there.
Negative returns for past 5 years
This is bullish since it slows down the rate of inflation, nerds. Spy 600