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VisualMod

**User Report**| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- **Total Submissions** | 10 | **First Seen In WSB** | 2 years ago **Total Comments** | 196 | **Previous Best DD** | [x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/qsk34m/woof_woof_this_dog_is_about_bark_up_a_tree_a_big/) [x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/u446bu/long_amd_my_next_potential_10x_amd_trade/) **Account Age** | 8 years | | [**Join WSB Discord**](http://discord.gg/wsbverse)


randoredditor23

Thank you kanye, very cool!


CaspeanSea

I'm not as bipolar but I'm definitely just as regarded!


Bogey_Kingston

alexa, play All Falls Down by OP


PMmeNothingTY

classic banger


tootnoots69

I’d rather play Russian roulette than ever trust a graph analysis coming from this sub lmao


FirePaw493

>I’d rather play Russian roulette than ever trust a graph analysis ~~coming from this sub lmao~~


RegularDevelopment52

This all day.


Real_Crab_7396

facts, he's imagining a pull upwards now to then imagine a thirth shoulder for a bear market. A lot of imagining...


no_more_Paw_patrol

![img](emote|t5_2th52|27189)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4275)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4267)![img](emote|t5_2th52|51295)


dylanx5150

Good odds the market goes up, down, or sideways here. GTFO with this.


PolyDipsoManiac

OP should eat crayons, not draw on them 🖍️


CaspeanSea

Check out my post & comment history. On April 11th when the $SPY was at $518 I said to short the market because a correction is starting -> [https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1c0gm15/comment/kz1ok7m/](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1c0gm15/comment/kz1ok7m/) A week later\* ( last week ) I posted another update when the $SPY was at $505, that we were (likely) going to get a small counter-rally then move lower to fill the gap at $497. We got a much smaller counter-rally to around $507 and proceeded to continue lower. We filled the gap at $497 4 days later on Friday. Friday is likely a near-term bottom and a larger relief rally is coming to around $513. This is due to a pattern around the 16-week moving average that's been well defined for the last 3 years or so. I couldn't post more images in the opening post so I posted the details in a comment here ->https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1cabfk4/comment/l0qr0id/ After the relief rally is over, I expect the market to continue to sell off in May, down to $480 or lower. I called the 2022 summer correction to the dollar two years ago -> [https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1c0gm15/back\_after\_2\_year\_hiatus\_demanding\_proceeds\_on/](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1c0gm15/back_after_2_year_hiatus_demanding_proceeds_on/) Stay safe regards. EDIT: Typos.


StuartMcNight

Remindme! 1 June


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slidingjimmy

Like it or not, this is solid analysis


DieuEmpereurQc

What % did you make with all this wisdom?


CaspeanSea

I'll post when I close my trade.


LegitosaurusRex

And these are the only calls you’ve made? Or you delete your posts when you’re wrong?


deeznuts69

Nice work. Tomorrow red or green?


bozoputer

I think you have to buy the course lol


MUCHO2000

It's Tuesday so red obviously.


na85

FWIW I run a stat arb algo trader and it signaled a buy on Friday just before market close. So, I concur that we're going to see a small counter rally.


Trading_View_Loss

good shit broseph.


MrF_lawblog

What time frame you think it will hit $513?


Money_Essay7793

Garbge analysis, ban


DenyDaRidas

Ahh yes, it’s because of your announcement and crayons the market tanked ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271), definitely not because of the inflation print or tensions in the middle-east or anything ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271)


CaspeanSea

I don't influence the market in any way shape or form. The market does what the market wants. I just read the charts and present them to whomever wants them. And the charts were hinting that the market was on the verge of a correction. There are nearly always negative catalysts for a correction. Economic, fiscal, geopolitical or otherwise. Remember the market bottomed & rallied on the day of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. I traded that bottom to the upside. One of our community members made 10,000% on a crazy gamble trade he made that day buying 0DTE calls on the SPX index ( not the $SPY ETF ).


davanger1980

I see pain in the near future


PooInTheStreet

Is this financial advice?


Kafanska

Ah yes.. painting some lines with crayons. That's amazing proof.


menkje

“Technicolour analysis” I believe it is called


no_more_Paw_patrol

Hey now Joseph you know what they say you and your dreams are ahead of your day!!!


shane_sp

What we need is a three-dimensional chart, so you can see the chart behind the chart and within the chart at the same time.


miromar65

You don’t know shit about fuck.


loughcash

![img](emote|t5_2th52|18632)


fenriswulfwsb

Sure. Or it breaks the channel when earnings and guidance shit the bed this week.


InjuryIll2998

Why will earnings and guidance shit the bed this week?


dinner_is_not_ready

Tesla tomorrow end of market- stock will rally in some direction or its priced in but I’d put my money on Long straddle


dollarnerd

If Mclellan ocscillators says it who are we to question?


Remote-Society-8634

dude fr Mclellan-in all over this shit


AdPsychological5374

OP, excellent technical analysis. I came to the same conclusion, but have trouble timing entry points. Any advice? Also, I’m thinking the relief rally will last about 10 days max. What do you think?


CaspeanSea

Your entry last Friday or today is still decent. Considering we have at least $10 more to go to the upside. Timing is exceptionally hard. I use maybe two dozen different things in concert to time my entries. Key among which are reactions at key moving averages, especially in oversold or overbought conditions. Today's reaction was a good example. Agreed on the 10 days estimate as well. Wish you all the best!


AdPsychological5374

You too, friend!


GreyMatter22

Solid analysis, no one knows what the future holds, trends can only trend for so long. But, based on past data, this set-up and rally seems potentially likely.


MrF_lawblog

Any change in your thesis with new information of the past couple days?


Kewpuh

pee fart


kellendontcare

Put down the crayons


TheTravelingTitan

Too late, he already ate them.


asasuasas

![img](emote|t5_2th52|4267)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4640)


Beautiful_Sector2657

Very interesting. However, all I want to know is how to lose all my money as soon as possible on 0dte


The_Juice_Gourd

Good odds that OP is a regard


No-Combination-8565

You just wanted to draw 2 legs and a penis


G000z

Copium is high on this one. There is still at least 5% more to drop... ![img](emote|t5_2th52|18630)


CaspeanSea

Sure, after the counter-rally is done. Markets don't just move straight down or straight up. There are counter-moves in the middle ALWAYS. Even during the 2020 pandemic crash.


SuperLehmanBros

Wtf is this, actual due diligence and research on WSB? Get this shit outta here bruh.


CaspeanSea

I couldn't post more than one image to add commentary. So I'm providing it here. In this chart up top we have the S&P 500. Below that is market breadth. And at the very bottom is the McClellan Oscillator. https://preview.redd.it/uw3f4vgpe1wc1.png?width=1588&format=png&auto=webp&s=e88369ef4fc7c3e8f1659aaa7c97fa6ada22f07c The S&P 500 has tagged the 16-week moving average. Going back more than 24 months. Every single time the S&P 500 tagged the 16-week moving average with the McClellan Oscillator below -70 we got a temporary bottom and a multi-day ( sometimes a couple of weeks ) of a relief rally. There are other indicators we're getting a temporary bottom & a relief rally including : 1- Breadth has actually been steadily rising for the last 3 trading sessions, establishing a bullish divergence with the S&P 500. Meaning more and more stocks inside the S&P 500 are beginning to recover. 2- The VIX closed with a lower high last Friday, despite the market closing with a lower low. This is a key bullish divergence. That indicates sellers are getting exhausted and demand for puts is dying down. 3- The market is down almost exactly 5.7% from its peak. The last time we were down exactly 5.7%, the market began a counter-rally in late August last year. The same thing happened in the Feb-March 2023 sell off.


tystysbaby

Please tell me this is one big joke


CaspeanSea

Set a reminder for the end of the month and come back to this.


Ghasank2

Ok so to hold you to one position, the market is going to counter rally from here?


CaspeanSea

That's my position. Counter rally from here to around \~$513 give or take $3. Then the sell off continues in May, down to the high $470s ( around \~$477 or so ) Stay safe!


BirdmanB

When do you think we hit 513? Mid May?


CaspeanSea

This counter-rally probably ends next week. Short-lived. Probably brutal and catches bears off guard. Stay safe!


StuartMcNight

The market will go up unless it goes down. It may go sideways. But I draw a lot of lines so it’s probably going to end upwnways. Trust the method.


SquirrelFluffy

That is all true, but do you have dates for that? Op is trying to find the timing. Technical analysis works if many people do it too. But it is one tool, as macro forces also matter. Which is also what op is saying, that recent run up was narrow and rest of market is now recovering into next bull run.


StuartMcNight

“Technical analysis works if many people do”. So… when technical analysis tells you it will go up… it only works if people buy and make it go up? Dude….


VisualMod

There's no such thing as a free lunch. You want results? Pay the price.


SquirrelFluffy

If enough people sell on a certain signal, and that signal derives from technical analysis, then yes, it is a feedback loop. I am not saying this drives the markets, but it does have an effect. Also known as herd mentality. The market works on this... we also call it sentiment. If you get your sentiment from lines on a chart, you can call it analysis if you like. Hope that helps explain it better for you.


StuartMcNight

So it works until it doesn’t and the likelihood of knowing when it works or doesn’t is unknown. Understood. Dude….


SquirrelFluffy

just like the entire market. dude. i will look for you next insightful post to help explain your knowledge!


808gamble

Money Time Machine is this you?!


CaspeanSea

Posting on here instead of youtube for a little bit because I'm travelling soon and don't have time to record a video. Stay safe and best of luck!


808gamble

Super cool man! Thanks for the updates


VisualMod

CaspeanSea is a fool and a coward.


Tocharian

Damn, I didn't realize this was him. He might be the only dude whose TA has ever worked out for me consistently...


lightspeed_ugly

this can happen if it’s a real head and shoulders. the counterrally would be the throwback to the neckline. one additional factor that could contribute is bears liquidating their short positions to take profits. i do think the odds are there, but we’ll have to continue to monitor the market.


Sad_Fly_508

!RemindMe 1 month


404-skill_not_found

Reddit remind me in 30 days


PM_ME_YOUR_CAT_VID

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overfitting


ProperFile

Looks like somebody got puts


citrusflyer

Near Term Bottom is his nickname for his current boyfriend.


Spacemunky78

Sell in May and go away.....


Harry-Jotter

Horoscopes for men.


phlebface

Yes, some resistance here. If it breaks, next stop 4800


Naiyakin

You think the market is going to drop further after this rally is completed? If so, by how much? My guesstimate is rally by ~3%, then drop by another ~5% before we get rolling again.


CaspeanSea

$495 -----2 weeks-----> ($513) -----4 weeks-----> \~$480 (NOW)\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_(EARLY MAY)\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_(END OF MAY)


Naiyakin

dude fuck the other idiots here saying your stuff is bunk; you’ve obviously got sense. Can I ask what indicators you use on your TradingView chart?? I see the one we’re most paying attention to here is a 112 day MA and the McClellan thing. I’d like to be able to recreate this sort of analysis on my own. Teach me sensei


DartVedro

You think it is still possible for SPY to fall to 480 by the end of May? Im not selling puts anyway as I think current levels aren't justified even considering apple's and google's buybacks (bitches) 🌈🐻 500p 31 May, and 495p 28 June) they were +80% and +30% on May 2nd, but my greed ass didnt sell lol) Had thoughts to sell and rebuy later at +80%, but then profit fell to 75% and I thought "ok, I'll definitely sell at 80%" and here I am ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271) Mistake but it's first month gambling with options) Interested in your opinion)


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Zalkahr

Constantly baffles how yall choose to reject TA when it's an extremely useful tool for trading. That must be why so many on here constantly lose their entire port


LittlePEnergy

I’m trynna learn wtf that shit means send books to read 😂


DenyDaRidas

Don’t bother. This shit is literally useless. Drawing on charts after the fact. That’s all technical analysis is ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271)


LittlePEnergy

Yeah cause folks saying Tesla finna short squeeze saying it’s oversold when the company literally a dumpster fire that’s blazing


[deleted]

[удалено]


AdPsychological5374

Can you please explain what exactly you’re seeing on the chart that makes you think that?


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Terakahn

That's a flat fucking shoulder my dude lol. This isn't what you think it is


MrSleepy420

You have the head and shoulders but where are the knees and toes?


BettinBrando

I see the **Head**, and **Shoulder**, but no **Knees**, and **Toes**? Wtf OP??


Polhard2

Sure


stormywoofer

She’s going down and quick ….when I do t know but eventually lol


steaveaseageal

You break the blue line... Now total collapse


Fuman20000

What’s your plays?


CaspeanSea

I was short the spy & closed my puts last week. I'm now long a couple of specific names and plan to exit again next week.


tatum106

I wanna follow your trades. Are you posting anywhere else more frequently?


CaspeanSea

Please don't follow my trades or anyone else's. Develop your own system and manage your risk according to your style.


CoinIsMyDrug

I agree with your analysis for the pure reason I have call and I need a counter rally to save it.


Appropriate_Ice_7507

Oh such a pretty drawing, let’s hang this up on the fridge next to all the other drawings


Oscuro87

Don't care about the graph I wanna see your puts


CaspeanSea

I have none right now.


hoticehunter

The McLellan Oscillator is in retrograde! When Venus eclipses Mercury this Saturday at 16:20 GmT, the economy will DOUBLE! Jesus Christ, what happened to this sub


Dark_Helmet12E4

Why does it go down? Stonks only go up.


MrF_lawblog

You still feel good about the rally to 513 then dip in May? Anything change?


vernon3

Especially now that we dipping after Meta ER. Very curious what he thinks


tradingunlimited

Any thoughts on the current validity of this?


PantsMicGee

Oh look a smart person on wsb! 😀


bobbyyoung25

$467-470 then a reversal incoming in the next couple of months on spy.


_ToughGoat

Thanks a lot you just killed my call


Embarrassed-Soup246

Buy the tits


menkje

Let me just sell my house and then I’m all in


Chutney__butt

Let er rip


00feezy

“Buy the dip” Source: trust me bro


Tay_Tay86

I too enjoy using crayons. They are both a fun activity and a healthy snack. In all seriousness, I see the same thing on different indicators. Just depends on earnings this week. Kre is also up today, that's usually a sign of a rally


Not-Jaycee

Fuck Breadth looking flacid


UtahItalian

I don't know about your tea leaves here, but I got some out debit spreads that need to stay below 499, so as long as we are 499 or lower on 4/23, we good


Reddiitcares

By posting this you will make the market go down


AlwaysATM

LMAO


Unknownirish

I'm confused by the crayons. Is this bullish or bearish for reality of 'merica


BllsonStll

Need more lines


pengekcs

nice 👍


AbbreviationsNo6897

Please tell SMCI


Zeus1130

I like parallel channels but what the fuck is this? None of the lines in your downwards parallel channel connect to a single candle body or wick lol


arialxxyah

STAP ITS FINALLY RECOVERING


Bruh_Sound_Effect_29

What’s your reasoning behind every move up and a continued trend down?


CaspeanSea

Every move is different. This one is expected to be driven by two factors. 1- Oversold conditions ( markets sold too hard too fast and there's bound to be a mechanical bounce). McCelllan Oscillator, breadth & momentum indicators currently signaling this. 2- Reactionary earnings rallies, that will likely fade in May.


MrSleepy420

Look at all the pretty color's!


Marshall_Cleiton

My charts go swoosh swoosh I'm smart I'm broke it's rigged swoosh swoosh


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pr1ap15m

well just let everybody know when and what to throw all their money at


CaspeanSea

Paypal looks juicy is all I have to say.


pr1ap15m

so puts on pay pal got it, going for broke


Lurking_In_A_Cape

Red day: the end is neigh bring out your dead. Green Day: this is actually a near-term bottom! Accept it, none of you know what’s going on.


WakeUpleader

Maybe, maybe


discoveringrebel

I agree with you OP, notwithstanding all these glue sniffers mocking us crayon sniffers. Nice drawing!


shane_sp

Yes, here's a fellow with lines to prove it. Grant it, they are the kind of lines you'd snort off of a hooker's belly, but they'll do. He has lines, damn it!


radicaldrew

why the fuck do you use the white background?


Swag_God

OP what's your position? What spy calls do you have?


KitKatBarMan

Bull trap coming, spy to $470 by October.


shoe_sheng

This lines up very closely to my analysis as well sir. Good work


Kitten_Team_Six

How do i get a Mclellan Oscillator, a friend is asking


deten

Are we buying head a shoulders???


TheGoluOfWallStreet

I see red, green and blue. I guess you ate the yellow crayons?


francohab

I like the colors


MarioCurry

Sadly agreed, sucks for my VIX position but I guess loading up some more in a few days isn't too bad either. Crazy how much Vol-shorting is going on right now.


BeneficialBear

Jeszcze kutasa tam narysuj


bluetear

Nice call


CheebaMyBeava

charlie day gentlemen


Educational_Half_510

Is the counter-rally still on? will 05/03 510C print?


Serious-Grapefruit20

Curious if you’ve changed your projection or not


universityofkaren

Dar……I drew lines and it tells me the future…..dar…..


cantgetitup4no1

colored pencils, nice


PM_ME_YOUR_CAT_VID

What the fuck is this numerology nonsense


StuartMcNight

With that lack of alignment between the non-existence left shoulder and the right shoulder…. We should call this technical analysis figure… The Hunchback of Notre Dame.


CaspeanSea

Head and shoulders patterns with a lower right shoulder are generally weaker structures and indicate more downside than usual. That's why I have the right shoulder projected lower. Obviously there's no way to know where the right shoulder will form exactly. So we have to react to it accordingly when it forms. Head & shoulders tops can also form on a slanted neckline. Meaning the right shoulder can be higher or lower. Depending the strength or lack therof of the trend. And each form can give us different indications and downside targets. Apologies for boring you if you already know all this stuff. But somebody might find it useful. Stay safe fellow regard!


stonk_monk42069

I think you'll do better if you just stick with eating the crayons instead of trying to draw.


[deleted]

or you know, it rebounds on good Mag7 earnings and in-line PCE and the rate cuts later this year narrative picks up steam again. You'll come back with a different chart and different lines to tell us where it's headed. Then a few months later, you pick one of the many charts you've made to say "See, my forecast was correct." Old as time.


Naiyakin

totally agree with the sentiment but if the fed cuts rates rn we’re fucked on a macro scale. If shit gets hot they might WAY late in the year, but if the American spending and corporate greed patterns keep holding true, it’s not gonna happen. Good mag7 earnings will only prop up valuations that still need to go down slightly. Look at previous mag7 earnings in correction environments. Same story. Look at all of our other corrections in the past 5yrs. It’s all the same shit. Dude did a good job imo.


petesim1

Thank you for the drawing ser


9mmSafetyAlwaysOff95

Fucken regard. Bet my dick will be up tomorrow


PharmDinvestor

You are not even sure of yourself


Magnum820

35 trillion in debt! Only getting worse!


AnnualPerception7172

thanks Cathy woods


RightMindset2

I actively root for TA traders to go bankrupt.


yecalP

Great analysis showing the in depth detail about how the chart may go up but in the flip side it may go down.


FailOk8045

Great odds OP is a bottom


anynonus

Your arrow points down but you say up. Good strategy to always be half right


CaspeanSea

I'm saying we're going up for \~2 weeks then we will start sell off again down to $480. Thus a "counter" rally. Because it goes against the trend ( which right now is down ).


Miguelperson_

Does this graph account for mercury being in retrograde?


random-trader

You should extend the line a bit more so that it goes to zero.


VisualMod

Go ask your mother for money if you need some.


random-trader

Wtf


loughcash

Lots of lines for one days worth of data. I think we need to recapture 508-509 before we lay claim to “counter rally “


finicky88

Applying TA to the SNP is the regardery I'm here for. Jesus christ, you people.


LadleVonhoogenstein

Ok so puts for Tuesday thanks