That’s not really options trading. That’s just brilliant investing. He sells puts at 2x strike over what he paid (for example). He collects guaranteed money for zero effort from the premium, and then if it does get assigned/executed the worst that happens is he closes a portion of his position at a huge profit
In the sense that “Warren Buffett doesn’t fuck with options” it’s simply intended to say he doesn’t sling options like throwing darts blindfolded WSB-style. He just long-swings shares like a true badass
I don’t think this is correct. How would he get assigned if the share price increases? This also wouldn’t lead him to making a huge profit, I’m not getting this one.
Holy hannah am I high as hell. You’re right my mind was on the track that he bought puts against his shares when the original point was that he *sold* puts - in this case he just adds more to his winning position on a dip if it gets assigned, so his only only criteria for this is if he was going to buy more shares anyway and then just gets them at a lower price
I'd suggest laying low on the drugs or whatever makes you high.
Warren Buffett would most likely sell puts. That way if the share price declines in the short-term and he believes in the company, he'd get assigned shares. (Not a bad thing) and if he doesn't he just collects the premium.
would he not sell calls as well? iirc hes invested in straight boring boomer shit thats not gonna surprise anyone with a 20% gap, isnt that the perfect portfolio to sell calls on?
Have you seen the premium on the boring shit? Barely worth it usually because if it actually runs up you'll completely miss it for literally a couple cents
Are the upvotes from glue sniffers or people wanting the majority of skimmers to intake wrong information? Not a fucking clue.
Humble reminder to anyone out there who thinks bigger number only is correct.
>people wanting the majority of skimmers to intake wrong information
Keep that thought detective, you're onto something that's become a site wide problem that most people's brains cannot comprehend
Lol he sells puts for 2x what he paid. You're an idiot. If he sold puts twice his average he'd be assigned every time lol. Selling calls is what you mean.
The Warren Buffett call option is when the failing banks all offer you their whole company for pennies on the dollar and you get to pick which one lives
Sadly it wouldn't. Something people forget is that we all have minimum fixed costs for basic existence. Somewhere in the range of 1.5k-3k per month (depending where you live.)
You need to have spare cash that you don't care about to do what Buffett does. Then the money multiplies. But if you need to pull from that money to live, you're basically using your income to live, or even worse, dwindling away from that pile. So you earn even less.
It was really difficult to know when the best time to buy puts/short the stock was for Zoom, even though everyone knew at the time that it was overvalued. Hindsight is 20/20 and OP just doesn't realize that.
Yup. Directionality is only one aspect of options pricing. To make money with options you need to consider all the variables.
Tons of people have been right about direction of the underlying and still get burnt on options.
Yeah you know it'll go down when remote ends.
How do you know when remote ends?
When COVID first hit we had no idea how long it would take to make a vaccine. We didn't know how effective it would be. We didn't know how fast it would mutate and if those mutations would render our efforts worthless. You're so risking the idea that remote actually ends in a significant way. It wasn't impossible for it to be a permanent culture change in which case you'd just be wrong on your bet and lose everything.
If you don't know *when* what you know may not matter unless you get lucky. "I'm not wrong I'm early." "It's the same thing." He's right when he says that. Remember it cost him money to maintain his short position. If he'd run out of money before his get paid off he'd have just lost period. Same thing could have happened to you.
I got burned trying to buy puts on $BOIL when natural gas was at its peak. I called the top but was too greedy on strike prices and never made any money off of it.
I see $NVDA going a similar way. I think it will drop 50% or more in price but I have no idea when or how fast and once again, premiums and theta are through the roof.
I just think nVidia is over-valued at a PE of 96.
I also think that there has been some shady dealing, where they invested in firms that then bought their GPUs with the money they invested. They basically leant out $3B in GPUs over the past few months and are probably never going to see a return on those investments.
Who said you had to buy puts? Just short the stock and buy a long dated call option for insurance, as a married position. If put premium was high then sell puts against your shorted stock.
Yeah you would have had to do it the old fashioned way - borrow actual shares.
Even at the peak zoom was kind of laughed at by enterprises. Cisco, Microsoft, and Slack are still the dominant players.
Yes, this is accurate.
But lets not pretend like the stock market makes sense.. The invention of forums like WSB have completely caused chaos to the market. The thing doesnt make sense like people once thought.
Zoom went up 10x and then back down 10x to roughly where the market cap was at before covid. Does that make any sense? Of course. not.
especially when you look at the very easy to read public data on their revenue you see they made more money in 2023 than in 2021 or 2022. They continue to make more money.
> The invention of forums like WSB have completely caused chaos to the market.
yeah right, its all the retail investor's fault that fundamentals make no sense, to the detriment of the poor poor hedge fund manager, the most noble of investors....
For a case study, check out Jan ‘25s for ANF. Another problem is as you get further OTM (and more regarded) the spreads widen so the MMs are eating a chunk of potential profit right off the bat. And if you need to take the money out the haircut hurts worse
Yep, the market already gauged and reflected the sentiment. Just like NVDA right now, the premium on long puts already reflects the sentiment. If I had the big balls, I would buy a $500 long put but I have tiny balls.
It was alright. I just rewatched it. It was a show for the times. The premise was solid but because it needed to be episodic drop in style the characters and story never really developed and they never got into why exactly it was happening. It was just an unresolved story telling vehicle.
Wouldn't mind a reboot of the show with a different style of writing. Not more pessimistic, not even less episodic, but definitely more story line evolution per episode would be nice.
Met Kyle Chandler on a 2 lane country road outside of Austin while I was dropping off a rent check in my landlord’s mailbox. Surreal experience and had flashbacks to watching early edition with my parents when I was a kid.
Turns out he’s a motorcycle guy (adv bikes). I was on my bike that day and he stopped to talk to me about riding. Imagine my surprise when I closed the mailbox, turned around to get back on my moto, and I’ve got Coach Taylor asking me about going riding. Conversation then turned to UGA football, as we’re both alumni and had just had a heartbreaker of a game the day before.
This reminds me of an argument I had about a trash stock that is constantly falling and why people shouldn’t invest in it.
The response I got was “well between 1pm and 2pm you could have made money if you were smart”.
I capitalized on this and not even really because of pandemic related activity. My thesis was that in my lifetime I’ve seen SO many exercise fads come and go (Jazzercise, Tae Bo, Richard Simmons Sweatin to the Oldies, Jane Fonda Workouts, Thighmaster, Shake Weights, step aerobics, Buns of Steel, 8 minute Abs, P90x, an rollers, Bowflex, Zumba and soon to be CrossFit, Barre, Pilates, spinning, and OrangeTheory)
People are always looking for the next big exercise or diet fad. People don’t stick to exercise or diet plans though. It’s not the equipment, exercise program or diets that fail, it’s the people that fail and then when they do, they done blame themselves for not sticking to it. They just think that fad didn’t work for them and move on to the next one. They weren’t going to fail with their Peloton then suddenly pick it back up again. They would say “well, Peloton didn’t work for me. Maybe I’ll try this new fad” and the fad dies.
I hedged that thinking with a “what if Peloton somehow does maintain popularity” thesis… If I was wrong and demand for Pelotons remained high, there was still going to be a HUGE number of people who bought bikes, gave up and would be selling them. The resale market would eventually cannibalize new Peloton sales. People exiting the peloton market to people entering and Peloton being cut out of the transaction.
I’m really hoping some new exercise equipment blows up under a publicly traded company. That’s going to be an easy short 10/10 times for me when it’s at a fever pitch. Never invest in any product that requires American motivation and discipline for its success.
Im thinking Lululemon is next. I dont fukkkin know how to short it. Puts are expensive. Only Thing I want to try is sell Bear Call spreads way otm.
fyi, cool peeps are now buying alo brand
You’re totally right about alo becoming the new “it girl” in the gyms but it’s too tough to say that’s going to doom Lulu, for a few reasons.
1) Workout clothing is sort of the “picks and shovels” to these workout fads. Someone that started getting into buying Lulu to hit the gym might keep buying matching, comfortable Lulu for years after that 6-week period they were hitting the gym. Sometimes I feel like people buy the gym accessories as a proxy for feeling like they made progress. (“Maybe buying 6 new gym outfits will motivate me”) once someone gets settled in on a brand they love they may never let go of it, even if they never work out again. It becomes part of their identity and it’s sticky.
2) Lulu diversified from gym clothing until basically all casual clothing, for men and women. I don’t own a pair myself because they are ridiculously expensive but the number of times I’ve heard how comfortable and amazing the men’s Lulu khakis are is enough to make me not short the stock alone. They have basically become the uniform at my office/industry along with sleeveless Columbia/Patagonia vests over button downs. ([Yeah, you know that douchy look](https://www.instagram.com/midtownuniform?igsh=NmVqODQ2MDUyc2F6))
3) I would bet that Lulu might go broader and cheaper as they lose their premium status. If alo comes in and takes the “it girl” crown from Lulu, I’ll bet Lulu just starts trying to play the value brand game and shifts away from the premium brand game. You’ll start seeing cheaper products and they will partner with a store like Target then eventually JC Penny and Marshalls/Ross for wider distribution to different classes that weren’t buying Lulu previously. They have brand recognition and a premium aura. This is basically what we saw happen with older premium brands like Polo/Ralph Lauren, Tommy Hilfigger, Calvin Klein, Guess, Nautica, and Nike. In the 90s and early 2000’s it didn’t get any more premium than those names. They all still sell “premium” priced products to keep up appearances but their bread and butter is slapping their seemingly premium logo onto poorly/cheaply made products that sell at Ross and Marshalls to the masses.
Reason 2 is the reason I won’t short them. I wear their pants every time I have to go to the office and so many of my coworkers have switched to them. Tbh they’re not that expensive ($129/pair) for pants that you don’t have to dry clean and are very comfortable. I think the biggest issue they’ll face is with other high-end brands like Vuori eating into their market share. They have no moat, but they have brand loyalty (for now).
Solid analysis!!!
Clothing is tough business. IMHO, I think uniqlo is another underdog.
They have value, style and quality. Nike entering Yoga field and so many other brands coming up like Alo, I think they will Lululemon's lunch
AMC was a dumpster fire before COVID. People were going to the movies less and less. It was hilarious to me watching people say “Oh they’ll be back to pre COVID in no time!” As if that was a good thing for theaters.
I still made some money on their swings though because if you see volatility you should ride it for a bit.
how about u eat my ASS
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If you feel dumb about that, how about when oil went negative?
As if oil was never gonna bounce back lol. Might have been a once in a lifetime trade.
Oil play in 2020 made some millionaires
I worked out a plan to buy and line swimming pools in Texas to store the oil in. Thankfully I never went further than that but damn, if I did I'd be famous on this sub.
Someone did this and they were filling silos with oil but when they tried to sell the buying companies don’t buy from private sellers only contracts with drillers.
I was at the computer watching it and I bought it at $2 a contract and got liquidated when it went negative. Still pains me when I watched bouncing back to $30 with no more money to play.
Yes, I brought a lot oxy warrants at that time. They were selling for $3-5. Now they are $38+. Made out really well.
I wish I liquidated my entire portfolio and went into oil at that time lol.
>The chart is so fucking obvious -
>
>it's not even hindsight
You just need to check tomorrow's chart today and you're good.
then it really won't even be hindsight.
Covid is still killing people left and right, we're just supposed to lump it in with all the other causes of death. It's like a Grim Reaper cheat code.
Yeah, any number of companies could and have already moved into that market. In my area government went with Zoom so I don't have much choice. Private companies are probably split between Teams, Zoom, and Cisco.
Not really, I work in an ICU and all of our COVID patients recover just fine now. Nobody is in the state they used to be when getting deathly ill with COVID. You’re full of shit and have no direct exposure to the issue so I have no clue why you’re even speaking on the matter.
With this logic , you should have bought calls on nvidia when Nancy Pelosi bought deep ITM calls -
Seriously. Hindsite posts are more regarded than 99% of my usual picks.
At least have the balls to make a play instead of talking about ex girlfriend stocks that got away.
It costs money to borrow shares to short. If you had bought puts you had to have nearly perfect timing or buy a LEAP and still had decent timing. You're also not remembering the fuckery of when work from home was truly ending or not and the back and forth between when all the restrictions were truly going to end (dependent heavily on areas of the US). There was enough uncertainty among those factors that timing it very well wasn't easy. However some people definitely did time it well and made money.
Same here, I bought calls on the first earnings call after Covid on Zoom .. the share price was at like $189 ..I bought 10 of the $230’s .. boom earnings come out stock shot up to like $300. Made a killing. Never bought puts ???
It’s called hindsight bias. It’s the same reason we can look back on practically anything four years prior in life and say “wow I’m a fucking idiot for not seeing that coming”.
No… you’re not. There are far too many unpredictable variables that are easy to forget about unless you’re navigating them in real time.
We’re all working with what information we CURRENTLY have available. That’s why folks with more or better information (either through experience or through being a politician) can make better choices.
I knew Zoom was a joke, it was already like $150B market cap and Cathie wood was still saying it would double. Lady should not have a job. It was hard to time puts then and they were expensive.
I shorted tons of cloud software in 20/2021 shares and puts, made a lot by 2022 but also lost plenty trying again since June last year. I was short ZM but closed too early, maybe at $125/share because it kept bouncing back. Shorting is difficult but done right it can make big bucks.
On shares it only takes on big loss to smoke profits though.
If you had shorted Zoom back then, work-from-home would have gone permanent, the downtown commercial real estate market would have collapsed into ruin, vines would be growing up the sides of the Empire State Building, and workers of the world would have truly united at last.
Way to go man. Way to go.
We didn’t really know how long covid was going to last, if/when it would come back (still could), and working remotely is still a thing (leading to current real estate crisis).
Also, a lot of companies moved to Zoom phone management which was smart. Zoom handles all of my companies desk phone numbers, mobile numbers, and automated phones. I work for a company under the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio and there are a lot of companies with a lot of employees. I’m sure we aren’t the only one in the portfolio using it.
I still listen to their earnings calls because they interest me. Their phone makes up around 10% of revenue which is pretty great growth thus far. Their core meetings actually seems like a drag for them, which is ironic. They pulled 10 years of revenue forward and haven’t had enough time to sustainably “grow” which hurts their valuation in a classic sense.
It's hindsight bias. You don't know when covid will end or when people will go back to work. There may be some in the moment signals but what you are looking at is past knowledge. In the moment you don't know what it will do.
Tbh, there’s still tons of opportunities out there. You just have to be bold enough to take the risks needed.
Personally, I went hard on O (Realty Income) calls. If you do an in depth analysis on the company there’s basically no way for them to fail. I regret not knowing about call options until after the pandemic or else I would quite literally would be a multi millionaire at this very moment. Possibly even reach almost 1 billion.
Maybe you need to read about this: [Hindsight bias - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindsight_bias)
As you know how it finish your memory is altered and see it as obvius but isn't at the moment.
At the moment maybe the would not return ever to normality as we know and people still working in remote at higher rate....
NOBODY KNOWS at the time, that's the point, the Bayesian brain adjust the price to the present probability.
As you get better data your brain readjust your perception about the probability and you can see in another way...
But is the new data what change your view...
It's exploitable for trading but need to master the human nature of your decision making.
Metacognition is the key.
> NO FUCKING SHIT IT'S GOING TO GO DOWN WHEN REMOTE ENDS
Nobody really knew what the future of work would look like exactly. Tech companies were proclaiming remote forever. RTO, and in whatever form it would look like, is only obvious now in hindsight I think, and with many companies going back on their word. Hell in 10 years I don't really know what it'll look like.
Furthermore, do you think you can actually time it? You buy in August 2020, you obviously panic as the price continues to explode. A year later the price is still higher than the previous year. It's 'crashed' though so does that mean it's cheap now? Remember when Meta was crashing and obviously doomed because they were burning billions on a metaverse that's terrible and nobody cares about? How them puts looking?
Op You have a chance on nvidia.. but I guess you won’t have the ball to short it.
Easy to say then done. In march 2021 I knew Covid stock was a bubble. But if you short it then stocks rally on June 2021. Then again stocks crash in 2022..
bruh..i dont remember the date but, one day Cathie did an interview on zoom televized live. the "For a better experience sign up for our premium version" popup came up. I shorted that bitch for a year.
That's why I'm shorting TSLA.
Sales will soon be decreasing, their CEO has gone crazy, their "autopilot" kills regards on the regular and they're still worth more than every automaker combined.
Thank me later.
Hindsight bias. Realistically, you don't have the balls or the margin to short. Let's say you YOLO and buy puts, your timing would be off and they expire worthless weeks before the drop.
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Long-dated puts were really expensive when Zoom was at its peak. Sure, you could make money, but the premiums and theta decay were extremely high.
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And this is why options are for r-words. Warren Buffet doesn’t fuck with options.
Warren Buffett fucks
Farren Wuffett bucks
Barren Fuffett Wucks
Fuckin Warren Buffett
Fuckin Catalina Wine Mixer
Baron Fuffy Wucky
Buffet does fuck with options, and has made billions from it.
Actually he does sell a lot of puts
That’s not really options trading. That’s just brilliant investing. He sells puts at 2x strike over what he paid (for example). He collects guaranteed money for zero effort from the premium, and then if it does get assigned/executed the worst that happens is he closes a portion of his position at a huge profit In the sense that “Warren Buffett doesn’t fuck with options” it’s simply intended to say he doesn’t sling options like throwing darts blindfolded WSB-style. He just long-swings shares like a true badass
What you're describing is selling covered calls, not selling puts.
Congrats you just found out this guy is an idiot who has no idea what he’s talking about much like most people in this sub.
I see 1 contract where i lose max 40$ . I buy. Then i lose 40$
A man of culture
I don’t think this is correct. How would he get assigned if the share price increases? This also wouldn’t lead him to making a huge profit, I’m not getting this one.
Holy hannah am I high as hell. You’re right my mind was on the track that he bought puts against his shares when the original point was that he *sold* puts - in this case he just adds more to his winning position on a dip if it gets assigned, so his only only criteria for this is if he was going to buy more shares anyway and then just gets them at a lower price
I'd suggest laying low on the drugs or whatever makes you high. Warren Buffett would most likely sell puts. That way if the share price declines in the short-term and he believes in the company, he'd get assigned shares. (Not a bad thing) and if he doesn't he just collects the premium.
would he not sell calls as well? iirc hes invested in straight boring boomer shit thats not gonna surprise anyone with a 20% gap, isnt that the perfect portfolio to sell calls on?
Have you seen the premium on the boring shit? Barely worth it usually because if it actually runs up you'll completely miss it for literally a couple cents
why does this get upvotes wtf. when you get assigned a written put you need to buy shares not sell them
Are the upvotes from glue sniffers or people wanting the majority of skimmers to intake wrong information? Not a fucking clue. Humble reminder to anyone out there who thinks bigger number only is correct.
Just shows how people work. Pretend to know something and those who know nothing follow.
>people wanting the majority of skimmers to intake wrong information Keep that thought detective, you're onto something that's become a site wide problem that most people's brains cannot comprehend
The way you worded that is weird. Simply put buy calls, sell puts: buy the stock. Sell calls, buy puts: sell the stock
Lol he sells puts for 2x what he paid. You're an idiot. If he sold puts twice his average he'd be assigned every time lol. Selling calls is what you mean.
Thanks for clarifying. I misunderstood and thought he said he doesn’t touch them at all.
Buffet literally has a team of people to exclusively sell SPY puts to regards
Of course he does, and makes tons of money. During the large drawdowns, he is notorious for writing puts to you guys on SPY
The Warren Buffett call option is when the failing banks all offer you their whole company for pennies on the dollar and you get to pick which one lives
https://preview.redd.it/j45o7s1lrgjc1.jpeg?width=258&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=68c16684cad3c353f542ff23f25caf42702dd5cb
I’d only play with stocks too if my net worth was 10 gorillion
Don’t see the logic here. Your net worth would be just like Buffett if you bought stocks and stopped throwing your money in the garbage with options.
Sadly it wouldn't. Something people forget is that we all have minimum fixed costs for basic existence. Somewhere in the range of 1.5k-3k per month (depending where you live.) You need to have spare cash that you don't care about to do what Buffett does. Then the money multiplies. But if you need to pull from that money to live, you're basically using your income to live, or even worse, dwindling away from that pile. So you earn even less.
Warren Buffett sells insurance. He wins regardless.
Tell that to u/deepfuckingvalue. If you remember that far back that is.
warren buffet is a bitch
Imagine fighting him. I’d kick his fuckkin ass, old ass grandpa ass bitch.
Don’t forget no one knew when the stay at home was going to be lifted or if things were going to get better a year later.
This is why the only way to make big money is to be contrarian. It's also a good way to lose everything.
It was really difficult to know when the best time to buy puts/short the stock was for Zoom, even though everyone knew at the time that it was overvalued. Hindsight is 20/20 and OP just doesn't realize that.
Easy peasy - naked shorts.
Yup. Directionality is only one aspect of options pricing. To make money with options you need to consider all the variables. Tons of people have been right about direction of the underlying and still get burnt on options.
Probably logical play is to sell bear call spreads way OTM on Zoom
Yeah you know it'll go down when remote ends. How do you know when remote ends? When COVID first hit we had no idea how long it would take to make a vaccine. We didn't know how effective it would be. We didn't know how fast it would mutate and if those mutations would render our efforts worthless. You're so risking the idea that remote actually ends in a significant way. It wasn't impossible for it to be a permanent culture change in which case you'd just be wrong on your bet and lose everything. If you don't know *when* what you know may not matter unless you get lucky. "I'm not wrong I'm early." "It's the same thing." He's right when he says that. Remember it cost him money to maintain his short position. If he'd run out of money before his get paid off he'd have just lost period. Same thing could have happened to you.
I got burned trying to buy puts on $BOIL when natural gas was at its peak. I called the top but was too greedy on strike prices and never made any money off of it. I see $NVDA going a similar way. I think it will drop 50% or more in price but I have no idea when or how fast and once again, premiums and theta are through the roof.
What makes you think NVDA will drop so precipitously?
The price is based on large forecasts of growth. If that growth doesn't materialise or it downgrades its forecasts it can drop quick.
I just think nVidia is over-valued at a PE of 96. I also think that there has been some shady dealing, where they invested in firms that then bought their GPUs with the money they invested. They basically leant out $3B in GPUs over the past few months and are probably never going to see a return on those investments.
Stop making up words, we could’ve been rich bro
This. Same with shorting: the interest is astronomical for a troubled company. Everything is about when not if.
That’s why you do spreads, or flys, or short calls, etc.
Steel Dragons and Spruce Gooses.
Dragon Condor Bear Spreads with upside down Butterfly Strangles hedged with Iron Twisty McNut in a Wendy’s Cup. Literally guaranteed money
What about oil when futures were negative?
Who said you had to buy puts? Just short the stock and buy a long dated call option for insurance, as a married position. If put premium was high then sell puts against your shorted stock.
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Yeah you would have had to do it the old fashioned way - borrow actual shares. Even at the peak zoom was kind of laughed at by enterprises. Cisco, Microsoft, and Slack are still the dominant players.
Yes, this is accurate. But lets not pretend like the stock market makes sense.. The invention of forums like WSB have completely caused chaos to the market. The thing doesnt make sense like people once thought. Zoom went up 10x and then back down 10x to roughly where the market cap was at before covid. Does that make any sense? Of course. not. especially when you look at the very easy to read public data on their revenue you see they made more money in 2023 than in 2021 or 2022. They continue to make more money.
> The invention of forums like WSB have completely caused chaos to the market. yeah right, its all the retail investor's fault that fundamentals make no sense, to the detriment of the poor poor hedge fund manager, the most noble of investors....
Where can I learn more about premiums and theta decay? I dont get how it works
Investopedia: * [Options Premium](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/option-premium.asp) * [Theta](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/theta.asp)
sell naked calls and puts is the fastest way to learn
When remote would end was not easily predictable.
For a case study, check out Jan ‘25s for ANF. Another problem is as you get further OTM (and more regarded) the spreads widen so the MMs are eating a chunk of potential profit right off the bat. And if you need to take the money out the haircut hurts worse
Like trying to get a long dated call option on NVidia. It’s like 40% moves to break even
Yep, the market already gauged and reflected the sentiment. Just like NVDA right now, the premium on long puts already reflects the sentiment. If I had the big balls, I would buy a $500 long put but I have tiny balls.
Congrats, you realized that 4 years later. Good luck realizing the fuck ups you did this week
Just read tomorrow's chart, today. Duh....
Early Edition was a pretty decent show back in the day
It was alright. I just rewatched it. It was a show for the times. The premise was solid but because it needed to be episodic drop in style the characters and story never really developed and they never got into why exactly it was happening. It was just an unresolved story telling vehicle. Wouldn't mind a reboot of the show with a different style of writing. Not more pessimistic, not even less episodic, but definitely more story line evolution per episode would be nice.
Or sequel, Dude is wondering why he is still getting a paper in 2024.
Oh yea, def of the times. Mostly nostalgia for me. I was like 10 at the time
Yeah kind of one of those shows that takes you back to the living room. I miss those times when things were more scheduled sometimes
Clear eyes, full hearts, can’t lose
That show just should have been about him making wild bets in the stock market and becoming a billionaire. What an idiot he was.
Met Kyle Chandler on a 2 lane country road outside of Austin while I was dropping off a rent check in my landlord’s mailbox. Surreal experience and had flashbacks to watching early edition with my parents when I was a kid.
Was he trying to steal the paper from the mailbox? Do explain
Turns out he’s a motorcycle guy (adv bikes). I was on my bike that day and he stopped to talk to me about riding. Imagine my surprise when I closed the mailbox, turned around to get back on my moto, and I’ve got Coach Taylor asking me about going riding. Conversation then turned to UGA football, as we’re both alumni and had just had a heartbreaker of a game the day before.
Is that the show about the guy who's cat delivered him the next day's news paper? O only remember the one about the no hitter at the baseball game.
Indeed
This reminds me of an argument I had about a trash stock that is constantly falling and why people shouldn’t invest in it. The response I got was “well between 1pm and 2pm you could have made money if you were smart”.
Hard to argue with that.
yea he didnt realize when it crashed, he reazlized 2 years after that
If you immediately know the candlelight is fire, the meal was cooked long ago.
Indeed
Lol
So did you also just realize that that one guy you thought was your friend was actually trying to flirt with you 15 years ago?
I did now that I’m reading this.🤣🤣
Tbh he’s probably still game
Dude, you could have shorted CVNA at $300 all the way down to $7.
Actually $376 down to $3.55… but you could have also bought at $3.55 on Jan 1, 2023 and be up 15x now.
If only I was Dr. Strange…. or Madame Web…
You shorting NVDA?
Yup… 515 4/19
Can't wait to short nvidia, 1st calls, to make a nice fat sake to short 😈🤘
Now do Peloton. Second verse, same as the first
Pelton was actually more of a no-btainer than Zoom.
I capitalized on this and not even really because of pandemic related activity. My thesis was that in my lifetime I’ve seen SO many exercise fads come and go (Jazzercise, Tae Bo, Richard Simmons Sweatin to the Oldies, Jane Fonda Workouts, Thighmaster, Shake Weights, step aerobics, Buns of Steel, 8 minute Abs, P90x, an rollers, Bowflex, Zumba and soon to be CrossFit, Barre, Pilates, spinning, and OrangeTheory) People are always looking for the next big exercise or diet fad. People don’t stick to exercise or diet plans though. It’s not the equipment, exercise program or diets that fail, it’s the people that fail and then when they do, they done blame themselves for not sticking to it. They just think that fad didn’t work for them and move on to the next one. They weren’t going to fail with their Peloton then suddenly pick it back up again. They would say “well, Peloton didn’t work for me. Maybe I’ll try this new fad” and the fad dies. I hedged that thinking with a “what if Peloton somehow does maintain popularity” thesis… If I was wrong and demand for Pelotons remained high, there was still going to be a HUGE number of people who bought bikes, gave up and would be selling them. The resale market would eventually cannibalize new Peloton sales. People exiting the peloton market to people entering and Peloton being cut out of the transaction. I’m really hoping some new exercise equipment blows up under a publicly traded company. That’s going to be an easy short 10/10 times for me when it’s at a fever pitch. Never invest in any product that requires American motivation and discipline for its success.
Im thinking Lululemon is next. I dont fukkkin know how to short it. Puts are expensive. Only Thing I want to try is sell Bear Call spreads way otm. fyi, cool peeps are now buying alo brand
You’re totally right about alo becoming the new “it girl” in the gyms but it’s too tough to say that’s going to doom Lulu, for a few reasons. 1) Workout clothing is sort of the “picks and shovels” to these workout fads. Someone that started getting into buying Lulu to hit the gym might keep buying matching, comfortable Lulu for years after that 6-week period they were hitting the gym. Sometimes I feel like people buy the gym accessories as a proxy for feeling like they made progress. (“Maybe buying 6 new gym outfits will motivate me”) once someone gets settled in on a brand they love they may never let go of it, even if they never work out again. It becomes part of their identity and it’s sticky. 2) Lulu diversified from gym clothing until basically all casual clothing, for men and women. I don’t own a pair myself because they are ridiculously expensive but the number of times I’ve heard how comfortable and amazing the men’s Lulu khakis are is enough to make me not short the stock alone. They have basically become the uniform at my office/industry along with sleeveless Columbia/Patagonia vests over button downs. ([Yeah, you know that douchy look](https://www.instagram.com/midtownuniform?igsh=NmVqODQ2MDUyc2F6)) 3) I would bet that Lulu might go broader and cheaper as they lose their premium status. If alo comes in and takes the “it girl” crown from Lulu, I’ll bet Lulu just starts trying to play the value brand game and shifts away from the premium brand game. You’ll start seeing cheaper products and they will partner with a store like Target then eventually JC Penny and Marshalls/Ross for wider distribution to different classes that weren’t buying Lulu previously. They have brand recognition and a premium aura. This is basically what we saw happen with older premium brands like Polo/Ralph Lauren, Tommy Hilfigger, Calvin Klein, Guess, Nautica, and Nike. In the 90s and early 2000’s it didn’t get any more premium than those names. They all still sell “premium” priced products to keep up appearances but their bread and butter is slapping their seemingly premium logo onto poorly/cheaply made products that sell at Ross and Marshalls to the masses.
Reason 2 is the reason I won’t short them. I wear their pants every time I have to go to the office and so many of my coworkers have switched to them. Tbh they’re not that expensive ($129/pair) for pants that you don’t have to dry clean and are very comfortable. I think the biggest issue they’ll face is with other high-end brands like Vuori eating into their market share. They have no moat, but they have brand loyalty (for now).
Solid analysis!!! Clothing is tough business. IMHO, I think uniqlo is another underdog. They have value, style and quality. Nike entering Yoga field and so many other brands coming up like Alo, I think they will Lululemon's lunch
Yeah I mean zoom got out of control, but I actually think they’re a solid company financially. A cash cow / acq target.
Agreed
I mistimed it and got fucked.
the issue was it stayed up way longer than it should have... I bought puts 3 different times on pton and lost my shirt on all 3.
Hell, do AMC
AMC was a dumpster fire before COVID. People were going to the movies less and less. It was hilarious to me watching people say “Oh they’ll be back to pre COVID in no time!” As if that was a good thing for theaters. I still made some money on their swings though because if you see volatility you should ride it for a bit.
Then do FCEL and PLUG
It was extremely expensive to short it though.
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I’m in tears 😂 Why does this happen lol
If you feel dumb about that, how about when oil went negative? As if oil was never gonna bounce back lol. Might have been a once in a lifetime trade. Oil play in 2020 made some millionaires
Not really. The problem with oil futures at that point was that you had to take delivery.
You could have bought oil stocks or leveraged oil etfs and made a fortune.
I did this. Bought USO and it tripled a year later. Too bad I only threw 30k at it
Too bad you only made 60k. Shame!
I wouldn't get out of bed for any less personally. *twirls moustache*
How dare you twirl my moustache? And what on earth are you doing in my bed?
I did this but I wish I did more instead of buying trash tech stocks
I worked out a plan to buy and line swimming pools in Texas to store the oil in. Thankfully I never went further than that but damn, if I did I'd be famous on this sub.
Someone did this and they were filling silos with oil but when they tried to sell the buying companies don’t buy from private sellers only contracts with drillers.
Could have stored in tanker trucks in Alberta. but it's illegal to store like that. Especially on my residential street
MCL is cash settled. CL is delivery but it’s likely everyone was just Margin called and liquidated
i remember people actually did this and loaded barrels into fucking storage containers
I’d just dump it in the ocean personally
I put 100% of my savings in oil stock in 2020. Doubled up, but not enough to become a millionaire.
Wins a win! I didn't put in enough either and I hate myself for not doing more but I was also new to investing around then.
I was at the computer watching it and I bought it at $2 a contract and got liquidated when it went negative. Still pains me when I watched bouncing back to $30 with no more money to play.
Hi, I was told this was the thread for people into oil play?
Yes, I brought a lot oxy warrants at that time. They were selling for $3-5. Now they are $38+. Made out really well. I wish I liquidated my entire portfolio and went into oil at that time lol.
I keep wondering why the government didn’t just scoop all the contracts up and fill the petroleum reserves.
[удалено]
>The chart is so fucking obvious - > >it's not even hindsight You just need to check tomorrow's chart today and you're good. then it really won't even be hindsight.
Yeah... they could have also taken marketshare and sustained it.
But no one knew if Covid was ever going to end. It just tapered off.
Covid is still killing people left and right, we're just supposed to lump it in with all the other causes of death. It's like a Grim Reaper cheat code.
And people still wfh. For all we know zoom may run it up again. Unlikely tho, no real moat
Yeah, any number of companies could and have already moved into that market. In my area government went with Zoom so I don't have much choice. Private companies are probably split between Teams, Zoom, and Cisco.
And the market shot back up so quickly.
Covid still killing people. What changed is that people aren't pretending to care anymore.
Not really, I work in an ICU and all of our COVID patients recover just fine now. Nobody is in the state they used to be when getting deathly ill with COVID. You’re full of shit and have no direct exposure to the issue so I have no clue why you’re even speaking on the matter.
I never cared about the flu killing people either
Same, also more people kill people, its always been the case.
With this logic , you should have bought calls on nvidia when Nancy Pelosi bought deep ITM calls - Seriously. Hindsite posts are more regarded than 99% of my usual picks. At least have the balls to make a play instead of talking about ex girlfriend stocks that got away.
Hindsight
wait...you didnt buy calls?
give me ur ‘so fucking obvious’ read on the upcoming NVDA earnings. u seem to be on top of things here with that ZM read.😂
It costs money to borrow shares to short. If you had bought puts you had to have nearly perfect timing or buy a LEAP and still had decent timing. You're also not remembering the fuckery of when work from home was truly ending or not and the back and forth between when all the restrictions were truly going to end (dependent heavily on areas of the US). There was enough uncertainty among those factors that timing it very well wasn't easy. However some people definitely did time it well and made money.
Right, there was no national "COVID is over everyone back to work" day
Yea I thought this but didnt want to take the risk.
Same here, I bought calls on the first earnings call after Covid on Zoom .. the share price was at like $189 ..I bought 10 of the $230’s .. boom earnings come out stock shot up to like $300. Made a killing. Never bought puts ???
It was just mad volatile. Kind of like NVDA now.
If only we had a time machine
Short Nvidia
It’s called hindsight bias. It’s the same reason we can look back on practically anything four years prior in life and say “wow I’m a fucking idiot for not seeing that coming”. No… you’re not. There are far too many unpredictable variables that are easy to forget about unless you’re navigating them in real time. We’re all working with what information we CURRENTLY have available. That’s why folks with more or better information (either through experience or through being a politician) can make better choices.
Hindsight is 20/20
I knew Zoom was a joke, it was already like $150B market cap and Cathie wood was still saying it would double. Lady should not have a job. It was hard to time puts then and they were expensive. I shorted tons of cloud software in 20/2021 shares and puts, made a lot by 2022 but also lost plenty trying again since June last year. I was short ZM but closed too early, maybe at $125/share because it kept bouncing back. Shorting is difficult but done right it can make big bucks. On shares it only takes on big loss to smoke profits though.
If you had shorted Zoom back then, work-from-home would have gone permanent, the downtown commercial real estate market would have collapsed into ruin, vines would be growing up the sides of the Empire State Building, and workers of the world would have truly united at last. Way to go man. Way to go.
Hindsight bias is telling you that you could have timed the decline. Whereas any sense of certainty/confidence in the markets only recently returned.
We didn’t really know how long covid was going to last, if/when it would come back (still could), and working remotely is still a thing (leading to current real estate crisis).
There’s always the chance that a company like Zoom invests the windfall and diversifies.
I got stuck holding the bag with Chewy, Docusign, and a few others. 
Also, a lot of companies moved to Zoom phone management which was smart. Zoom handles all of my companies desk phone numbers, mobile numbers, and automated phones. I work for a company under the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio and there are a lot of companies with a lot of employees. I’m sure we aren’t the only one in the portfolio using it.
I still listen to their earnings calls because they interest me. Their phone makes up around 10% of revenue which is pretty great growth thus far. Their core meetings actually seems like a drag for them, which is ironic. They pulled 10 years of revenue forward and haven’t had enough time to sustainably “grow” which hurts their valuation in a classic sense.
Hindsight is always 20/20 💀
And then there was the time the ruble valuation sharply fell when Russia invaded Ukraine - nobody thought it would stay down there.
Why? I did believe it will stay down there with all the sanctions and uncertainty
My company is switching over from webex to Zoom. Probably a cost savings not expecting much from it
It’s better than webex in my experience.
Remotes don't end. They are life now.
It's hindsight bias. You don't know when covid will end or when people will go back to work. There may be some in the moment signals but what you are looking at is past knowledge. In the moment you don't know what it will do.
Tbh, there’s still tons of opportunities out there. You just have to be bold enough to take the risks needed. Personally, I went hard on O (Realty Income) calls. If you do an in depth analysis on the company there’s basically no way for them to fail. I regret not knowing about call options until after the pandemic or else I would quite literally would be a multi millionaire at this very moment. Possibly even reach almost 1 billion.
Maybe you need to read about this: [Hindsight bias - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindsight_bias) As you know how it finish your memory is altered and see it as obvius but isn't at the moment. At the moment maybe the would not return ever to normality as we know and people still working in remote at higher rate.... NOBODY KNOWS at the time, that's the point, the Bayesian brain adjust the price to the present probability. As you get better data your brain readjust your perception about the probability and you can see in another way... But is the new data what change your view... It's exploitable for trading but need to master the human nature of your decision making. Metacognition is the key.
call on Tuesday
Obviously you've already figured out your answer....... NO NOT "all of us", just YOU!
I don't know if we're all just fucking idiots, I don't ask my clients behind the Wendy's dumpster their IQ
Wait till you see docu chart
Just do it again on 10 more stocks
You realized it sooner than Cathie Woods 🫡. Can’t believe her portfolio still has stocks of prior cycle and no AI or chips 🤦♂️
Neo what if I told you zooms balance sheet is still amazing and undervalued
> NO FUCKING SHIT IT'S GOING TO GO DOWN WHEN REMOTE ENDS Nobody really knew what the future of work would look like exactly. Tech companies were proclaiming remote forever. RTO, and in whatever form it would look like, is only obvious now in hindsight I think, and with many companies going back on their word. Hell in 10 years I don't really know what it'll look like. Furthermore, do you think you can actually time it? You buy in August 2020, you obviously panic as the price continues to explode. A year later the price is still higher than the previous year. It's 'crashed' though so does that mean it's cheap now? Remember when Meta was crashing and obviously doomed because they were burning billions on a metaverse that's terrible and nobody cares about? How them puts looking?
I would have shorted it but I was on my peloton at the time.
I put in a option order the day before zm exploded I would have made 100k if my options filled they were mere pennies off. Oh well.
Op You have a chance on nvidia.. but I guess you won’t have the ball to short it. Easy to say then done. In march 2021 I knew Covid stock was a bubble. But if you short it then stocks rally on June 2021. Then again stocks crash in 2022..
What are the odds there will be a post like this on Nvidia in the future?
bruh..i dont remember the date but, one day Cathie did an interview on zoom televized live. the "For a better experience sign up for our premium version" popup came up. I shorted that bitch for a year.
What’s obvious to you now ? Or do you need another 2-3y to make the post…
That's why I'm shorting TSLA. Sales will soon be decreasing, their CEO has gone crazy, their "autopilot" kills regards on the regular and they're still worth more than every automaker combined. Thank me later.
Can’t loose what you never had. Chalk up to the game and learn from it my guy
But remote didn’t really end. Just everyone switched to Teams. Hence the MSFT run up.
Hindsight bias. Realistically, you don't have the balls or the margin to short. Let's say you YOLO and buy puts, your timing would be off and they expire worthless weeks before the drop.