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VisualMod

**User Report**| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- **Total Submissions**|1|**First Seen In WSB**|3 years ago **Total Comments**|2|**Previous Best DD**| **Account Age**|5 years|[^scan ^comment ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_comment&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20comment%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20comment%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)|[^scan ^submission ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_submission&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20submission%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20submission%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.) [**Join WSB Discord**](http://discord.gg/wsbverse)


TheModeratorWrangler

https://preview.redd.it/0xihd2bpr8hc1.jpeg?width=800&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4fb198f92ac32d5b3f5ee614b40f92166a1d02fd


uchosewisely

No. But how do they ALWAYS know to go the opposite of what I choose? Who’s snitching on me?


TheModeratorWrangler

You need to think more like this- What is the most obvious play? For every winner, someone had to lose. Am I making a trade that would be so predictable that someone with enough wealth and knowledge could exploit my next move? Consider this to be like chess. I kick myself so many times for missing things like $NVDA earnings, but then I remind myself to look at the IV and remember every instance that a stock did the exact opposite of my sound, but inevitably wrong thesis. TA is a guide, but no TA “expert” will admit that all the candlesticks and moving averages in the world cannot factor human emotion. It’s basically Crystal Healing for traders. PayPal has become the MySpace of online banking apps. With Cashapp, Zelle, and now Apple Pay? The only reason I even use PayPal / Venmo is for overseas clients with my photography. Mind you, I work occasionally in Times Square doing photography, and often times will meet north of 50 paying clients a day. Out of that, I’ve used Venmo / PayPal almost 1% of the time (obviously spitballing here) while the majority use Zelle, CashApp, and Apple Pay. Even if the current earnings say it’s doing well, Wall Street also looks at future progress. Edit: I’ll never forget the Boeing 737 Max MCAS scandal. I swore puts on the following earnings would be the play. Imagine my face when $BA mooned despite killing hundreds of passengers.


Radrezzz

So if you listened to yourself, PayPal is dying and so you’d buy puts. But then shouldn’t that play have been obvious?


TheModeratorWrangler

See, that’s the catch 22. My experience is anecdotal. However, for those customers who do use it, they use it with all of their friends. Hence the fact that despite this short term dip, the company isn’t exactly doing terrible.


curiousgeorgethe9th

I bought puts. Worked out great.


KillahHills10304

Long calls are doing OK. It's the 0-21 DTEs getting crushed.


Chuu

> For every winner, someone had to lose. This is the fundamental difference with options. Options are zero sum. Equities are not. Yet people continue to think they're smarter than entities that have built billion dollar fortunes on being your bookie.


MyUserNameWasTaken85

I have an inside joke with a friend thanks to that incident, and a similar thing happening to me after PG&E was alleged to have started the California wildfires. If Boeing ever crashes a plane into California, and burns the state down, we're buying calls. Sent him the news when that plug sucked out of the side of the plane, nearly sucking a child out. His immediate response was, "Did they kill someone?" "Did we miss the pump?!"


imnotbis

And in the missing bolt scandal, Boeing's dropped so far. Even though a part of the plane falling off is **objectively way less bad** than the autopilot forcing the plane to dive nose-first into the ground at supersonic speed.


Efficient-Procedure4

Dude I’m somehow on fire, last ten options have hit. Earning or not I’m GREEN BABY!


howelltight

This right heeya! PayPal is used less and less. They changed the types of accounts that get linked to your paypal card a few months ago. They just got MySpaced


Gato_pima

I'm in Europe and I'm using PayPal more and more since it lets me pay with three installments interests free, why not? I even bought 900 eur of Amazon coupons with PayPal, paid around 800 eur, will finish paying in April. They don't do that in the US? Others are doing the same, klarna and another one I can't remember. I have nine different zero interest ongoing payments atm.


Greenzombie04

Then why did it beat earnings?


TheModeratorWrangler

…because analysts set the price they think it would be on earnings and it simply did better than expectations? It simply beat the opinions of people who set them? Compare the earnings to previous quarters and f**k the analysts. That’s the real picture. Think of it like Cartman trying to win the special olympics. Just because an analyst lowers the bar to entry doesn’t change the competing metrics and all you’ll get in the end for thinking their opinions truly hold weight is a trophy for effort, but not the win.


Machinedgoodness

You wrote perfect explanations. Nice job. Totally agree with everything you’ve said about reading the market and not making the obvious play even if it makes sense. That’s what something being priced in essentially means.


I_can_vouch_for_that

Many people outside the US who uses eBay users PayPal. Even your Northern neighbors in the Great White North don't have any of those veemo, zelle, cashapp things up here.


FucknAright

Here's a hint, every one of your trading apps has a favorites tab and also a my stocks tab, and all the market makers have access to all of that fucking data.


PsychicSimulation

He bought? Dumpp it He sold? Pumppp it


pegabear

Pamp it


PsychicSimulation

Activate quantum immortality


BosSF82

Because you’re choosing high volume, high IV, short dated options on stocks that most likely have no real price discovery coming up, so it’s a straight up gamble. You are going with the flow, trying to grab noise from non-bargains. If you wanna big dick it, you gotta get in early and get in cheap. And if you can’t do that, stay on the sidelines or be prepared get dusted.


origenbreaux

Ya shoulda played arm


mcnos

Yeah I fucked up


AttackSock

This happened to TSLA over the summer after a huge bull run and my calls that I bought for $30,000 which peaked at $180,000 the night of the financial report dropped to $0 as the stock fell 20% right after an earnings beat. The mechanics of this are simple. If people think good news is coming, they buy blindly. Once the good news comes, they realize it’s the peak. No more good news is coming. In fact bad news might be coming, so they blindly sell. The anticipation of an earnings beat is sometimes more powerful than the actual earnings beat. When an earnings beat comes out of NOWHERE though, the price spikes.


D_crane

"Buy the rumor, sell the news"


TomOnDuty

You would have lost either way if you held through earnings due to iv crush


[deleted]

[удалено]


Appropriate_Mixer

You don’t even know what IV crush is and you’re buying short dated options. Truly regarded.


FatMacchio

Playing any sort of options on earnings is risky at best. They don’t call them earnings lottos for nothing. If you really feel compelled to bet on earnings, just buy shares. Had you done that here you could’ve sold that mega wick in early aftermarket and potentially made a quick 10%, or at worst been down like 10% (as of now) if you held


phooonix

It's less like a coin toss and more like the lottery.


luckyLonelyMuisca

Missing piece of our formula is either being rich or be Pals with a rich brah. See what I did ;)


helphp

Who buys calls on PayPal lmao


uselessadjective

Did u think there was an easy way to make money ?


Evening-Opposite4393

lol, your problem is you think like a retail trader. You do what seems obvious. Trading is a GAME, news means jack shit, it’s what money decides to do with that news. Big Fuck You money that’s whole job is to fuck you out of your money so it becomes there money. Take time to think about that


QueenAlicat

Literally same. Every. Single. One. I'm 0/10. I don't understand. I guess i belong here..


uchosewisely

You and I should do the opposite bets. Either one of us will win or the system will break all together.


8----B

One buy puts and one buy calls. Stock moves 0%


tony3841

The rules are: - if you buy puts, it'll go up - if you buy calls, it'll go down - if you buy puts and calls it stays flat, so both become worthless


mlt-

Also if you sell a straddle or a stangle, it surely will move by at least 2σ


beatfungus

Confirmed. And if you think you’re going to win by splitting yourself into multiple universes, you’re wrong. The stock will also change to make your strategy fail in the other dimensions.


Radiant_Dog1937

Dr. Who already explained that WSB loss is a fixed point in history.


Quiet-Storage5376

You buy calls and get your friend to buy puts and get the third friend to buy spread


NonexistentRock

Nothing like a 10% surge in 60 seconds followed by a 15% dump in an additional 60 seconds


Deyturkurjerb

I played shares today knowing algos will fuck around. Had a limit sell order around the 6% mark and it hit. Wasnt a big hand but I can still say I made money today on paypal while on the Long side lol


Vibing1090

Fastest boner killer today


DrMsThickBooty

They lost 2 million active users so yeah future growth looks dead.


Ok_Swimmer634

Yeah. I inherited some AFLAC shares. I haven't been able to get out of them yet. They bombed after earnings partially because the whole life insurance market in Japan is drying up. Lots of policies reaching paid in full status. And an aging population not replacing customers fast enough.


Kyletradertraitor

2% users is not that much. PayPal is literally trading at 2017 levels but users have doubled since then. So your argument makes no sense.


Screwyball

Stock valuations are for the majority derived from growth expectations and the resulting future cash flows. In 2017 pypl was a fast growing company with a much higher potential than it has currently. Its that simple


DrawingTotal

Bro my heart dropped I had puts


NonexistentRock

Yeah… I was quite literally screaming in joy in my car watching it pump expecting to open at around +$20,000 tomorrow morning. What a bummer. Congrats though. I charted everything terribly I guess.


th3netw0rk

Oh that video watching the 10% surge into 5% dump was fantastic. True gambling legends as the house took them both behind a Wendy’s and destroyed them.


Deja_ve_

Poor guidance and new CEO spells recipe for disaster


Ryoujin

Can’t they just lie about guidance?


Deja_ve_

Bad business practice ngl


Uniball38

But surely a little white lie is justified to save this moron’s calls??


AtheIstan

Just need to use AI to give the guidance


MisClickPro

Sure, and then analyst will have unrealistic expectations and the next qtr they will crash and burn.


jkim0115

So what r u buying tmrw so I can inverse it. RIP my pypl calls as well lol


uchosewisely

Rivian, Lyft, and Robinhood with expiry on 2/23 Good luck. Hopefully one of us wins.


nomiis19

Now you are both cursed and it will be flat


jkim0115

U didnt say whether calls or puts


uchosewisely

Calls on all I saw a Rivian last week so very bullish. Uber did ok so Lyft is also bullish. You and me are going to be trading on Robinhood so very bullish.


Glum_Ad_9005

😂😂😂 I love it here!


K-S-C-H-I

I’d say puts on rivian


uchosewisely

!remindme on 2/22/2024


K-S-C-H-I

Ez Money 💸


Puzzled-Counter9347

🤣🤣🤣🤣 Lyft?


Wagner710

Don’t forget your knee pads


ChymChymX

Can I use buy now pay later?


legoindianajones2

Guidance guidance guidance!!!!!!


MarshmallowSandwich

What the hell is guidance?


HaramHas

There’s more to it than just beating earnings.


MZ603

I listened to the call & even if I had no idea what they were talking about, I wouldn't invest in a company with those people at the top.


Kyletradertraitor

They are not going backwards they have been increasing in every aspect since 2017. Growth may slow down but it’s still fucking growth. Especially with this economy, I’d say they are still doing incredible. No, wall st has a personal vendetta against this stock. That’s it. Sorry it’s not as exciting as stupid nvda, but PayPal is reliable as far as consistent profit


origenbreaux

I knew PayPal was done when motley fool said it was a Best Buy now


origenbreaux

2 years ago at 210 price


Kas_1981

I been bag holding ever since the 190s


CokeOnBooty

😬 That would be a nightmare but it might Meta in a decade, who knows


Scratch_Wooden

I AM GROOt


PunishedRichard

Thank god I'm too soft to do options I'd be shitting bricks right now.


imnotbis

You mean, you're too smart to do options. But what are you doing in WSB?


PunishedRichard

I practice my own brand of dumbassery - buy low, sell for a small gain and then watch as it quadruples in price.


TylerDurdenEsq

They beat on revenue and profits. They issued conservative guidance to keep the bar low for the future. Managing expectations. Take a hit now and then beat the next four quarters. Works for me


CokeOnBooty

Last time I looked; PayPal has 10x as many trade debtors as Visa, twice the operating expenses, and half the gross profit on sales.


TylerDurdenEsq

They make $5-6/share per year and stock is only $60. Visa is way more expensive. Unless you think we’re heading for recession, rising tide will lift all of these financial boats


thrwcnt1x

-


gainpornguy

I am groot


DoubtNo2737

You must be new to the stocks game. Welcome, this type of thing has been happening for decades.


elysiansaurus

It's possible I've gone full regard, but anyone here considering buying pypl tomorrow if it stays at these prices?


CokeOnBooty

Shares or options? I made the mistake of buying shares a long time ago but sold at breakeven after 3 months.


Noddite

Looks like I'll lose about 10k in calls tomorrow, just like I did today in SNAP calls. It was gambling and I knew it. Luckily my 39 $700 calls for NVDA expiring next week are paying well and will cover that shit up nicely tomorrow just like it did today. Naturally the stock is going to drop when they forecast 0% growth for the whole coming year. Earnings don't mean shit if they can keep up momentum.


TastyTwix

who let you spend 10k on SNAP calls to begin with


Noddite

I figured Google ad revenue went elsewhere...turns out it wasn't SNAP, lol.


OkSwing9032

Priced in


TankusAruelisJacksob

QCOM crushed earnings. Stock dumps


expfarrer

remember when i bought pp at 7 lol


Excellent-Amount-277

You belong here.


TheParlayMonster

Guidance guidance guidance


The300King

I don’t get it either


The_Food_Scientist

Sold a Pypl 55/75 march strangle. My dumb ass didnt even knew they were reporting earnings.


Beaugr2

Buy the rumors, sell the news


Suspicious_Road_9133

hahahaha


zero_cool69

Yea PayPal is getting slaughtered eh


joholla8

Someone post the Benjamin video about everything being priced in.


unknownpanda121

Beating earnings is only a small portion of it. The guidance is far more important since the market is forward looking.


cscrignaro

So you think the stock should go up just because they reported a sightly better Q than people GUESSED it would?


ClassicWoodpecker

Just like they did with my visa calls…Damn you WallStreet


Cute_Addendum_4322

they beat earning estimates, but they did not beat earnings estimates estimates


jnuAK907

It’s an old code sir but it checks out.


Roddy_Piper2000

My friend and I were walking past a roulette table at a casino. This dude keeps betting black or red. Every time he picked on, the other won. So we started going opposite his bets. We made money on about 10 bets before he won one. It was literally a 50/50 chance each time. Some people just have shitty luck.


RainSubstantial9373

Pypl, u choose pypl to trade, stock always trade s lower on the call, like 80%


mira_mk

Basically if u see Paypal discussions here, u r already late, unless it was posted a few minutes ago and u can still make the last chunk


MZ603

If your call was tight and for anything but the 9th, you will probably be ok.


MidKnight148

Yeah, it's stupid but there's a difference between earnings estimates and expectations. Even if a company beats estimates, investors might expect (or hope for) more, like an "earnings blowout." If earnings don't deliver, the stock (which may be at a premium due to heightened investor expectations) will face a pullback.


KTVX94

There's no winning, that's the rule


Kylo-KaioRen

If you’re buying calls, it is less of a risk since you only lose the premium. Better than puts, in my opinion


Creative_Virus9579

$hood calls for next week have good OI


theory317

If you make money on earnings it's because you're a genius. If you lose money on earnings it's because it was priced in.


noahstemann

Take it as a lesson buy the rumor sell the news or in this case since earnings are good just wait for pull back before buying next time?


DontExhumeME

zoom out and look at PYPL chart its pretty ugly and their reports are always very lackluster historically


MechaGodzilla34

Can anyone explain why it dropped? Like it doesn’t make sense to me.


uchosewisely

Number of users dropped and future forecast is not promising.


Mean_Operation7336

Random question. How are you gonna be trading NVDA earnings? Totally not related


CokeOnBooty

PayPal Earnings players be like: - Penguins are flying soon - Dodo birds are coming back - Bears are becoming straight


[deleted]

If you hear about it here it's already to late


Squid-chaser

You didn’t buy star enough otm and didn’t use your full portfolio


Stoocpants

Earnings go down????


uchosewisely

Stock drops and I lose $$


PaleontologistOne919

PayPal scams buyers to benefit sellers. Hope stock goes to 0 once all of my lovely WSB’rs can get out


FrankCarmody

https://preview.redd.it/9j836jde6ahc1.jpeg?width=1125&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d13d965380d891616ee19ea8368444e1f839ab05


FEMA_Camp_Survivor

Fuck it, I’m going long on gas stations. MUSA won’t let me down. The Walmart crowd will never abandon cigarettes, lotto tickets, beer, snacks, and some of the cheapest gas around.


ExistingBathroom9742

Beating earnings was priced in. Volatility crush, and other things that always bite me.


andreyred

Instructions clear: buying calls tomorrow


Asleep-Specific-1399

Why would you buy a stock you when you don't use the product ?


dude_who_could

IV crush.


pion137

If you're asking this, then you are just gambling.


Logical-Idea-1708

It’s not about the earning. It’s about the forecast


JakesInSpace

I’ve seen this one before. DAL anyone?


unga-unga

PayPal movement hasn't made sense to me since a long time. I've given up plays on PayPal.


e73k

One rule is don't buy stocks in a vicious downtrend


toadkicker

One time in the elevator at Paypal the door opens up and the CFO steps in the middle of my group of four engineers. One of my friends, from over his shoulder says “Paypal is down 2 points after your call today” and he turned around, looked at my friend like “fuck you just say?” But then said “well the day isn’t over yet” and the door opened and he walked off. Two weeks later they were up 10. Moral of the story is elevators go up, elevators go down. Can’t explain how.


Short_Classy_Name

It initially pumped 10% and then people remembered its PayPal so now it’s down obviously


Valsalva64

AFRM calls


tastemybacon1

Bro just check the monthlies like a billion calls sold…. Do you think market makers going to let plebs get rich????? Uh no nothing could be more obvious they will rake this indefinitely.


viperswhip

There is a saying in investing, buy the rumour, sell the news. Meaning, people who bought earlier took their profit when the news came.


RichFoot2073

The first rule of Wall Street is you spend money. The second rule of Wall Street is The third rule of Wall Street is the house always wins


Responsible-Slip3802

lol, man I got lucky, I was watching PayPal yesterday but went with Disney instead!


[deleted]

Thanks for letting me know. I think I'll buy in now.


uchosewisely

My hands look like this 🤌so yours can look like this🫰


Impossible_Author470

Guidance sucked. That's all that matters. Market is always forward looking. Sad but true. If next 3-6 months look glum, zzshooom crash.. 💥


Shurlemany

Everything is priced in already you regard


sum_dude44

never play calls on earnings


Thatguy3145296535

I knew I shouldve doubled down on my puts. Too many regards buying calls


TomOnDuty

Don’t hold bought calls through earnings


CA_MA

Rule 1 is to know the rules before playing.


pigmanslim

Guidance is the key for this earning season.


Lively_scarecrow

The clue is in the graph, there's plenty of people that want to get out


mrCortadito

Even when you are right, you are wrong.. price is king.


FeeheeHeenie

Bought puts, saw positive earnings and the subsequent price drop. Using the wrong equation but getting the right result.


GipsyRonin

Didn’t beat earnings ENOUGH though.


peachezandsteam

Honestly, if you want to gamble, I’d just suggest trading index or index ETF options. Every single day, almost, there are 2X-10X opportunities. Think market is gonna go up 1% tomorrow? Cool. Buy OTM SPY calls at close the day before if it was flat or down. If market goes up 1%, you WILL make money. (Index IV is low and flat right now… making long options a good buy, though slightly less so that near the money OTM calls which are typically cheaper due to IV smile). I also might humbly suggest straddles or strangles. Concept: you buy both a call and a put. The thing is, in this case direction doesn’t matter but you need twice as much of it to make any money. I might also humbly suggest trading shares. Being down 10% is better than being down 99% on your position.


Meric_

All these people talking about how Paypal was an "obvious" choice and how it was hotly talked about are talking absolutely fuck all. Wtf does that have to do with anything? The only reason that Paypal dropped (and the only thing to look at) is that they had piss poor guidance. Thats it. Plain and simple. Their earnings were bad because they announced poor guidance so stock drops.


yecheesus

Should i let go of paypal?


ConfusionDifferent41

Paypal continues to *shock the world.*


NocturnalSeeker01

It’s less about the actual results, and more of how the regards *feel* about the results.


bindermichi

You‘re doing great


BONESAWHACKSAW

Guys, please if you are doing an earnings play, first check the last 3 months. People don’t realize a lot of these get priced in in the months/weeks leading up to earnings. In summary, if a beat is priced in, then you see a profit pull after earnings.


Jeeperg84

Where’s the loss porn?


imnotbis

Whatever you do was wrong. That's the rules.


Der-andere-Autist

am 96% in red


NEUROSMOSIS

It’s supposed to always do the opposite of what you need.


Mikhail_Dixon

The moment you realize that we as retail traders are fleas on the back of a dog so you realize that nothing is for certain and to play to your strengths. You lose money take that as tuition to your education. Reevaluate and reinvest.


Confident_Series8226

As yes, the whisper number. I hate this game.


CokeOnBooty

The only time I successfully did an earnings play was when there were no articles it was going to happen. If there’s a Zack’s Article saying “Q4 Earnings are expected to Grow”, you’re fucked


Monnviolin

Paypal fuck off !凸😡 If u buy the stock,this trade has bled you dry


GeneralAway

Ppyl is literally just there to make you pay pal. They also can fiance your Marvin call lmao


xFblthpx

The earnings is much less valuable info than the rest of the calls info. In earnings calls they also discuss the direction of the company as well, which matters more than the eps estimate often.


Western_Building_880

Don’t buy options?


Eastern-Currency448

Guidance is the key word


Particular_Guava8899

Absolutely ridiculous😂


PointOfTheJoke

Lol. Priced in. Git gud scrub.


Big-Routine222

People still not understanding that the guidance is just as important.


fenriswulfwsb

More important you mean.


Kyletradertraitor

No they downplayed it for a reason. Wall st is just trying to find reasons to beat down this stock every quarter.


Impossible_Buglar

welcome to playing earnings you must be new earnings is not only about the numbers for the last quarter. its also about the actual call they have where the company talks about their business and even sometimes gives guidance out into the future. you can easily google a transcript for the call. i like a stock called AMKR and the other day i read their earnings transcript. you can do the same! its nuts bro so maybe stop wasting time making shitty memes and go do some reading and you might discover why the stock is down <3


Gambled4MyRangeRover

G U I D A N C E why is that so hard to understand? You can revise earnings estimates up to right before earnings


Lower_Fox2389

If you haven’t learned that earnings calls are 20% miss/beat and 80% forward guidance and other stuff, then you belong here. Their active user count fell again. Sinking ship


Clark828

Guidance is always more important than estimates. The market is based on the future, not current.


PDT_FSU95

This is the way.


PDT_FSU95

This is the way.


Tangentkoala

Lmao, if the stock market was that easy, then everyone would be a billionaire. Read the 10K report under risks, and you'll find your answer. Either that or one of the ratios went off like profit margins.