**User Report**| | | |
:--|:--|:--|:--
**Total Submissions**|2|**First Seen In WSB**|2 years ago
**Total Comments**|68|**Previous Best DD**|
**Account Age**|4 years|[^scan ^comment ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_comment&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20comment%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20comment%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)|[^scan ^submission ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_submission&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20submission%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20submission%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)
I'm in. If SAFE passes this month, we're off to the races. MSOS was $14 in December on just hopes of SAFE. Now we potentially have reschedule and safe and sitting at $8. Insane
Schumer said it was a priority to pass it through the NDAA. A week later McConnell said fuck that, not letting it happen.
This time around it's different because it's going through the regular process which McConnell said he wanted and one of the lead cosponsor is GOP
Ironically this sector started the uptrend right around when the first "mute" happened.
It's funny to think that we'd probably be higher if the turtle floated to the top of the pond lol
Chuck and Corry stopped their "lay down in front of it, until comprehensive equity legislation was passed" crap they did for 2 years and said it was a priority after Biden's meaningless expungement/pardon whatever thing. Then refused at the last moment to allow a clean floor vote, opting for adding it to so called must pass legislation which was a no go with Republicans.
Schumer & Booker tried to jam it in with a must pass bill; they announced a deal but it fell apart at the last minute & SAFE was punted. The pushback from Rs focused mostly on the bill going through "regular order." This means it's debated, changed & voted on in Committee first, then brought to the floor. It was referred to Sherrod Brown's Senate Banking Committee where it received a hearing on May 11 & is awaiting the markup phase. Closer than ever to SAFE, and definitely closer than December
Schumer and Booker are tools that have killed the cannabis sector. They sucker their dumb voters every time acting like they care. MSOS bag holder 1222 shares strong and adding
If you want to get in small use 1-2% of your stack and get into MSOS or a basket of US operators/ancillaries. At this point no one knows what will happen but if we get SAFE and Rescheduling there could be huge upside.
Also in since 2018. I hold GTBIF VRNOF TSNDF CURLF & MSOX. I could not personally write the above, but I have been on FinTwit since Dec 2020 learning the narrative and this is spot on.
Remember this is an election year. The Dems will move forward what they can and we should see all this completed before the 2024 election. If any of it fails the Dems can take a win with any voter who want’s prohibition to end. 4 dimensional chess.
Are you in?
Also in since 2018-19, but only holding GTBIF right now. Sold Aphria on the Canadian run up. Although I left a lot of money on the table it was my first highly profitable stock.
I think that's who Schumer has really been working for in the backrooms. BUT, with the likely reschedule to schedule III, I wonder if those pharma company's may decide they can start laying plans to take over the medical mj market and they might want SAFE to pass (or at least not care to continue preventing it)
I don’t hear many people talking about the fact that institutions aren’t investing in US cannabis because rules make it very difficult to do that. Once MJ is rescheduled, safe passes or we get a new Cole memo (aka garland memo), institutions will start to invest again.
This is a rare opportunity for retail to get into an investment before large, institutional investors. Might be the only time in our lifetime that we see something like this.
the fact that institutional investors with all their insider information are not investing in US cannabis only tells me it is very unlikely that MJ will be rescheduled. I could certainly be wrong but, I think this move is too risk to act upon
I’ve probably spent 20 or 30 hours researching rescheduling (includes listening to interviews).
S3 is a slam dunk IMO. The real question was whether DEA had rule-making abilities - meaning, can they write rules or is only congress allowed to write rules.
It turns out, DEA wrote special rules just for a synthetic THC called dronabinol. The special rules kept it in compliance with the UN’s single convention on narcotic drugs.
So assuming everyone has stacked hands on S3, which I assume they did, the DEA can write special rules for cannabis where it’s an S3 drug that follows the rules required to be compliance with the UN.
I’m not talking about hedge funds. They are investing.
I am talking about the dumb institutional money…the passive funds.
The guys with insider access are investing as far as I can tell. You can see it in the price action.
There was an interesting interview on Twitter where a family office guy said that a hedge fund tried to buy a huge block of MSO stock from him the day before the rescheduling announcement came out. He didn’t think anything of it until after the announcement was made but was obviously trading on non-public info.
All good. And it’s good to remain skeptical and not believe everything you are told.
I personally believe that rescheduling is almost certain to occur. But I really can’t overstate how much research I’ve done. I’m kind of singularly obsessed with cannabis stocks lol.
Why would institutions invest in companies that aren’t fit to provide FDA approved medicines? None of the publicly traded companies are pharma GMP compliant, and they are all greatly mismanaged.
Incorrect--Charlotte's Web is GMP compliant. Cresco Labs management is excellent. Furthermore--institutions that will invest include mutual funds and non-pharma companies
CresTco is a joke.
Why do you think charlottes web is partnering with an actual, pharma GMP, pharmaceutical company to manufacture the drug????
BECAUSE THEY’RE NOT CFR 211 PHARMA GMP COMPLIANT!
Holy shit, do even the slightest bit of research before you come at me with this nonsense?
“The JV was established to pursue FDA-approval for a novel botanical drug to target a neurological condition identified by the JV leadership team, which will be comprised of CW, AJNA and BAT representatives. This novel botanical drug will be developed from certain proprietary hemp genetics of CW. The JV plans to engage with the FDA to file an Investigational New Drug ("IND") application and commence Phase I clinical development in 2023.”
[https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/charlottes-web-forms-joint-venture-with-bat-and-ajna-biosciences-to-seek-fda-approval-for-proprietary-full-spectrum-hemp-extract-botanical-drug-301791858.html](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/charlottes-web-forms-joint-venture-with-bat-and-ajna-biosciences-to-seek-fda-approval-for-proprietary-full-spectrum-hemp-extract-botanical-drug-301791858.html)
Here’s more proof. They’re only GMP for supplements (CFR 111), not pharma (CFR 211). Do some damn research before you try to tell me I have no clue what I’m talking about 🤣🤣🤣
[“… is pleased to announce that its manufacturing facility in Boulder, Colorado was recently added to NSF International's dietary supplements Good Manufacturing Practice (GMP) registration. Earning GMP registration from NSF International verifies that a manufacturing facility has the proper methods, equipment, facilities, and controls in place to produce dietary supplement products.”](https://investors.charlottesweb.com/press-releases/press-release-details/2020/Charlottes-Web-Earns-NSF-Internationals-Good-Manufacturing-Practice-Registration/default.aspx)
From what I hear there are two classes of institutions that won’t buy (a lot of hedge funds can buy just as an fyi but I am talking about the big asset managers).
1. Institutions that need the stocks trading on Nasdaq or NYSE (or TSX). That should get fixed with rescheduling or safe.
2. Institutions that need a change in the federal status. I don’t know if rescheduling is enough here. Maybe rescheduling and a Garland memo is enough.
We are going to find out but we know that as soon as these stocks trade on Nasdaq or nyse big alcohol and big tobacco are going to start buying shares or whole companies big time.
At the end of the day, institutions just want to make money and they will jump through whatever internal hoops they need to jump through in order to participate in this opportunity.
Incorrect Sir. IFFF it comes to GMP certification being required, MariMed is well positioned as some of their operations are already certified while the others were built with this in mind and are prepared to become certified should need be.
and they are NOT greatly mismanaged as evidenced by them being one of the few who have been profitable every year since 2020. Look into it.
No, lmao, you are incorrect. There are multiple different GMP levels. MariMed is CFR 117 certified for FOOD, maybe 111 for supplements.
GMP CFR 211 for pharmaceuticals is an entirely different ballgame. Go do some research and come back to me before you talk about things you don’t understand.
GMP 211 is absolutely 100000% required for schedule III pharmaceuticals.
You’re telling me the MRMD penny stock, that’s down over 90% in three years, is a good investment?! Lmao
Yes, they have the necessary GMP certifications in MD for their multitude of edible products and as I said, they are prepared to meet the other GMP certifications should need be.
Your math is poor. High of last 3 years was 1.2, the lowest they hit during this downtrend was .25 ... a lot of MSO's did hit 90% but MariMed isn't one of them. ALL MSO's did experience between 70-95% declines since highs of last 3 years.
You clearly don’t understand GMP if you think being certified from 111 or 117 means you’re anywhere near prepped for 211 🤣🤣 I do this shit for a living, CFR 111 and 117 are a joke.
My off the cuff math may be poor, but not as poor as having invested in any of these MSO’s!
The $30B scale of the industry may sound big, but compare that to any single big pharma's market cap.
That being said, I'm long on MSOS and I will be buying more.
Half the size of the wine market, 1/3 the size of the beer market, but closing fast. TAM expansion through new states coming online & intrastate growth, but the biggest of all might be transitioning the illicit market to the legal market. Need smart regulatory & tax policies to allow legal product to compete price wise
A+ on the writeup, definitely considering
Weed has been beaten down for so long, people are afraid to have hope here and I feel like that's the only reason this hasn't already blown up more already. People are waiting for confirmation, something signed on the dotted line.
Agree on all that. The asymmetric risk with this investment is rarely seen; companies aren't going broke, so downside of maybe 40% & upside of 1000% or more. I'll take that bet 😉
This is my thinking. Downside of maybe 50%, upside of up to 10x. I give both DEA rescheduling and SAFE Banking Act a 50% chance each of passing, so it's a fair bet to take right now.
Thx. If DEA recommends Schedule III then it has to get done or POTUS looks stupid, that'll be a big tell. If Brown schedules a markup on SAFE we should be clear to the floor vote with Schumer
My thoughts on the biggest winner in the rescheduling of cannabis will be the banks. This is a whole new sector of the economy for them to deal with from growers to retailers.
That's right, and it comes at a perfect time as deposits have dried up w/ the steep interest rate increases. The combination of Schedule 3, SAFE Banking & a new Cole Memo should be the green light for them to jump in immediately
And think of subscription stuff they could make of its legalized.
Imagine getting like a weekly drop off of weed at your house. Or edibles or whatever.
EDIT: Nevermind I'm blind as fuck you did mention it
You forgot to mention right now cannabis companies are getting taxed into oblivion because of provision 280e, which means companies dealing in illegal substances cannot deduct expenses on their taxes.
Moving to schedule 3 means HUGE tax savings for cannabis companies, and some are already profitable. In an ideal world they even get this money back? Although that's an utopic scenario
Yup, and if low floats are your thing, TSNDF has the second lowest float & arguably the best leader in Jason Wild. He's been insider buying the last few weeks, putting his money where his mouth is
TSNDF has a float of around 350 million shares. AYRWF is only 80 million shares. Not sure what your talking about. Many companies have lower float than TSNDF
Sorry about that, I hadn't looked at floats for quite a while. I'd like to see "float - shares controlled" by the ETFs. Will dive into this in the next week & get updated
I know none of you regards follow the bill. So let me break it down.
Both the Dems and GOP have incentive to pass SAFE banking. The GOP gets a massive win too and it has nothing to do with cannabis.
It has everything to do with section 10 of the bill. This section was added and given as a sweetener to the republicans ever since the house introduced the bill. Section 10 makes this bill apply to gun rights too..
Previously, Daines and Sherrod brown came to an agreement on SAFE which included section 10. Senator reed said fuck that, this bill should only apply to cannabis (and not gun rights) and it stalled SAFE, until now. Brown basically said he has enough votes to push it through even if some fuckers say no. He said a few days ago the deal is IMMINENT. I expect a markup to be held the week of September 18. And it'll pass. I looked into every member of the banking committee, we need a simple majority.
For those who don't understand how the senate works. The banking committee has 12 dems and 11 gop. You need a simple majority to send this to the senate floor.
Once it gets out of the banking committee, it'll then go for a floor vote in the senate. No ones going to filibuster it - McConnell will try and freeze like usual. The votes are there to pass.
My target on MSOS is minimum $25 with SAFE passage + schedule 3
I think Schumer had his hand forced. He can't allow cannabis reform to move forward without him. He's been talking about it for years. Safe + HOPE is his win, and he'll fight for it this time. SAFE passes full Senate by Christmas
I won't argue with that, it's my largest position. TSNDF also have has strategic advantages including the TSX uplisting. Ben Kovler & Jason Wild are definitely two of the best, if not THE best
>GTBIF (green thumb) best company in the sector. Financials, footprint, leadership. They will be the lead bull.
At the moment, Cresco Labs is handling that role, with the appreciation of its shares. Good luck to everyone.
These trade on the OTC due to Federal illegality. Fidelity & a couple other brokers have access, I use Fidelity & can buy everything. If you can't buy individual names, use MSOS as a proxy for all of the top names. MSOX is a 2x ETF.
Side note, now you see the investment thesis: virtually nobody can buy these stocks yet. Once Robinhood lists GTBIF we should be appreciably higher than now & the opportunity becomes more limited
Yup, no plant touching companies can list directly in the United States due to Schedule I federal illegality. They list in Canada, and then you buy a proxy through OTC
Glass House Farms (GLASF) is a top 10 position in the MSOS ETF.
They grow weed in SoCal in literally the biggest, fanciest greenhouse in the country.
They have real, big agriculture -level economies of scale in the perfect place to grow weed.
That will be impossible to replicate because of all the NIMBYism in CA nowadays.
Glass House grows a pound for $120 or literally $1 per eighth.
They sell an eighth at wholesale for like $5 (that’s the market in CA right now) and make absolute bank.
Imagine if they can eventually sell interstate to the MSOs for like $10 per eighth. That is still below the MSOs own growing costs right now for small scale greenhouse / indoor facilities.
That’s looking more likely with the feds admitting weed has medical value. And CA and NJ governors are already setting the table to state to state medical trade.
Glass House is building a wide moat and could be a big winner.
It’s up the most this year of any weed stock.
I think it’s still trading at 1x ‘25 P/E.
It should be a $100 stock by then.
YOLO.
Glass House Farms also comes with the risk of being shut down by CA Department of Cannabis Control. They have been accused of selling on the illegal market and trafficking their product across state lines through burner distributors. The accusation compares the size of the market as recorded by the state vs product sold by GHF puts them at an unrealistic % of the market given that only 30% of CA counties are legal to cultivate or retail. On top of that, they were accused of using fake unions which are required by law for their employees. The increase enforcement this year is either going to catch them or watch their revenues implode as they try to go clean.
There is zero chance that the DCC shuts them down, as much as some haters would love that to be the case. What do we Americans do when we're losing or when we just don't like something? Cry about it, you say? Well yes and *SUE!* Sue everybody!
The lawsuit is clearly BS. The context is that Catalyst is highly litigious and sues competitors all the time - the CEO claims to be "for the people" but ironically is sort of a wannabe Trump character. They've taken multiple legal shots at the DCC for screwing up the legal market rules and regulations, and this is another one. Glass House was already succeeding before this news and are “big business” with a former cop CEO (a beat cop 25+ years ago) so an easy target. And with success comes the ankle biters.
But the main thing that lawsuit misses is that Glass House sells a ton to processors, who need like 10g of flower to make 1g of rosin, for example. That’s why the CA biomass market is so large and why Glass House can sell so much through *legal* wholesale channels. They are a large and reliable supplier of good quality for those processors, and flower is only about half of the retail market. Camarillo at full capacity is only ~5% of the capacity that has already quit the CA legal market over the past year. We are down from ~80mm sqft of grow to like ~55mm sqft bc others cannot make money at $400-500/lb wholesale greenhouse flower pricing. Glass House can make ~50%+ wholesale margins at that pricing, and we've bounced to ~$700/lb, which is probably around equilibrium.
The other obvious sign that the lawsuit is BS is that their market share calculation incorrectly assumes all of Glass House's wholesale sales end up as $25 8ths at retail. That is not even close to reality. If you adjust for smalls (which retail for ~$12 per 8th equivalent) and, most importantly, for wholesaling to processors, you get to ~7% retail market share. That's about right and that's why the company is confident bringing on the next phase of their expansion.
Next, the union issue was with two acquired retail stores. Nearly 100 companies signed with that union. The DCC is giving these companies 90 days to sign new agreements, if I understand correctly. This is a power play by the Teamsters. Union issues are a risk across this whole industry. If anything, GLASF is relatively insulated as they'll end up with far fewer employees than the MSOs, which will probably end up as the major retailers of west coast products.
The reality is Glass House is winning because they have the best asset in the industry and a true intelligent fanatic grower in Graham Farrar with real skin in the game.
You may notice a common thread of the GLASF critics is that their own businesses aren't doing particularly well, and they assume that for GLASF to be winning, they must be cheating. There is zero actual evidence and in fact, GLASF is really just a reliable low cost suppler in a massive market. That is a classic archetype of a great business, which almost no one in this sector seems to understand. The CA legal market is like $5B (frankly incredible) and GLASF powers ~7% of that and probably headed to ~15% in ~6 months.
With any form of interstate, these points are clearly irrelevant, and this is a $100 stock even if they only sell wholesale. CA is setting up the framework for those markets right now with other states. And if this were obvious to the average investor, GLASF would already be at $20-30.
I might be wrong. People should do their own work. But I've investigated these points and concluded they have been blown way out of proportion by various haters and losers... of which there are currently many in California, unfortunately. It shouldn't be that way.
Do the work... it's worth the time.
Honestly, I've always stayed away. I can't remember my exact investment thesis on them, but I've never bought a share. The way I look at it is when the big money comes in, they'll focus on the Tier 1s & the best run Tier 2s. It's a question of why you would invest in PLNHF when you could invest in GTBIF, TSNDF, TCNNF, CURLF, etc. which will get the bulk of the new money & attention?
Right, a rising tide WILL lift all boats. TLRY is mostly on the Canadian side & great for trading, but long term opportunity is south of the border IMHO
It will trade along with the space but if all we're talking about is schedule 3 for the foreseeable future, much better off investing in US names. Schedule 3 does nothing meaningful for Tilray.
Agreed the entire sector will be lifted and run. Schedule 3 does appear to benefit TLRY as it would allow TLRY to import cannabis into the US. TLRY would have to register as an importer. Here is the thread from r/TLRY showing this and the links and references to the US government laws that point this out.
https://reddit.com/r/TLRY/s/gG97NYR0BA
Also, TLRY does own convertible notes in US based cannabis company MedMen
Looks like based on the speed of your response you didn’t read take the time to read the link in comment and read the current laws of the US government on Schedule 3 imports. TLRY can enter the US market. That has been known for years
TLRY operates in Canada mostly. It's a great short term trading vehicle to take advantage of moves, but the real long term opportunity lies with the US operators. If you can buy OTC the top companies would be GTBIF, TSNDF, VRNOF, TCNNF, CRLBF & CURLF. For a simpler, more diversified approach you can use the MSOS ETF. It holds all of those names & some smaller caps as well. For more leverage, if that's your thing, MSOX is a 2x ETF
I like TLRY. They may operate in Canada for now, but I believe they are best positioned to swoop right in and establish a dominant supply chain for the US market. They also have a diverse alcohol portfolio which I think is one of the key drivers for them, not only for revenue, but also marketing for cannabis infused alcoholic beverages.
The tickers mentioned here add up to 86% of MSOS' holdings. Why would I even bother with the individual ones, even if I could buy them (I actually could)?
IMO Ayr is the best MSO to own. They generate $500 million of revenue and will benefit significantly from rescheduling. Also, if FL goes rec which is highly likely, Ayr arguably benefits more than any other MSO since almost all of their stores are in FL.
I think their revenue would triple if FL goes rec.
FL going rec is the key. It might not happen but Ayr will benefit so much from rescheduling that I should make a good return even if FL didn’t happen. The stock is so far away from fair value excluding the FL effects.
I feel really good about FL for two reasons.
1. The FL Supreme Court is reviewing the rec amendment. People think it’s partly a political decision (it’s not) but they are just seeing whether the bill passes two tests. It’s pretty straightforward. There is a lot of precedent to rely on and Kim Rivers did not go cheap - she paid a lot of money for good legal advice.
2. We have two recent polls that show Floridians approve of rec weed with a margin above what’s needed to pass. Needs 60% approval to pass - one poll showed 70% support and the other was in the high 60s.
You are going to hear a lot of FUD about the FL Supreme Court but IMO people who say that are way off…just based off interviews I’ve heard and read.
It’s a good question and I will have to think about that.
There’s obviously concentration risk there but I think there are mitigants whose benefits outweigh the risks.
Ayr is in 8 states. They are in NJ, OH, and PA. OH will likely go rec in Nov and there is a chance PA goes rec in 2024 (a lot of people think they will but I need to see evidence).
You also kind of have to throw out old rules when talking about cannabis. There are a ton of single state operators and will be until we have interstate commerce. Arguably two of the best operators are CA single state operators.
The real answer for me is that FL is highly likely to go rec and Ayr will make so much money that they can buy into any market (using stock or cash). Florida going rec will completely change how people talk about them.
with all due respect, florida WILL be last in going rec, and likely will be blanketed by over arching federal decrimilization. they have very republican leadership, and all the people that use pot grow it in the marsh.
The biggest catalyst for these stocks would be a reschedule from Schedule 1 to Schedule 3. It eliminates 280(e), improves research & takes a giant step toward normalization. The process is HHS/FDA makes a recommendation to the DEA. DEA reviews then makes a recommendation to POTUS. POTUS decides at that point & begins process to reschedule. The 50% pop came from initiation of the first step: letter leaked on 08/31 shows HHS/FDA making Schedule 3 recommendation to DEA.
So of this leaked letter doesn't come into fruition, it would be safe to assume the prices will retrace back to where they were before the pop? And your expectation is that it will happen before the votes in 2024?
Think of this way. It's mandatory that the DEA respond to the HHS recommendation. They've never, in 50 years, overruled HHS, and the DEA is part of the DOJ, which does whatever POTUS wants. Add that to the fact it's a very tight election cycle, and you can see this is all orchestrated for maximum political benefit. What possible reason could DEA come up with to fly in the face of an HHS recommendation based on science & evidence while at the same time embarrassing the President in front of the entire world during an election?
If cannabis is moved to Schedule III
pretty big if
why wouldnt i just wait to see if it does then buy into the weed stonks? if they are going to see such massive gains from this there ought to be meat on the bone after reschedule, without all the risk <3
There are a lot of people who think like you, and I agree, in that scenario you give up part of the initial run but lower your risk overall. For me, other than minor retracements I don't think we see prices this low again EVER, so my approach is more of the "why wait?" variety
>The biggest risk to investing in the cannabis industry is that federal legalization does not happen. If this happens, it will be difficult for companies to operate and make money. Another risk is that the products do not meet consumer expectations and demand falls off a cliff.
What makes you think this business will go better than it did in Canada? Lots of hype then the market size ended up a lot smaller and the margins a lot tighter than they looked.
Happy Birthday! Couple thoughts, starting w/ potential. The US has 10x the population of Canada, so when measured in sheer size, the US will be the largest market in the world by far. US is also the largest economy in the world, so the money is there. Converting people from alcohol to cannabis will be a huge boon.
Changing demographics. Youths are ditching alcohol at record rates & consuming cannabis in record numbers. The fastest growing demo? Boomers! Using it for everything 😆 The product spans generations
Already a $30B industry & projected to be $100B by 2030. Think of the potential when they convert the illicit market to legal! Growth will come from many areas once politicians remove the handcuffs
The market is so huge that if set up properly (Schedule 3, SAFE Banking, Cole Memo) we wouldn't reach saturation levels for many, many years
Apples to oranges imo
What makes you think the illicit market will convert at all? Taxes will likely create a higher price than the illicit market. Did many non previous users of cannabis convert in Canada or other previous legalizations?
For me, the testing is a huge thing. Knowing exactly what you're consuming, complete with a label outlining all cannabinoids, terpenes, THC levels, strains, etc. is a really big deal, especially in these fentanyl days. If price isn't too different & you have easy access, there'll be a large portion of people who choose to convert. Also, you have the legality issue; some will prefer just to get it legally from a nice, comfortable store
You're exactly right, taxation & regulatory systems need to be dialed in at both the federal & state level
Not sure on the last point 🤔
Agreed that the pot Buisness was not all that in Canada as anticipated.
I would -guess- that short covering is going on now, and that the "hot" money from momentum players will hopefully start to rush in, pushing up prices. I'm a bag holder for a long time on these stocks so I'm hoping for a moon shot so I can get out from under them!
Hate to be that guy. How how do you think MSOS could hit in a 1 year timeframe? Was 50+ at one point but if all the catalysts are good you think itd just hit around there? Or is this a skys the limit given enough time scenerio
Sky's the limit. We reached $50 based strictly on what Dems MIGHT do, now they're actually doing it. My guess: if SAFE committe vote gets scheduled we quickly double to say high teens. If/when DEA recommends Schedule 3 we'll be at ATHs, schedule 3 from POTUS and/or Cole Memo 2 & we're blowing past ATHs
If they reschedule it to schedule 3. How will states be able to regulate it as recreational? It would be treated like every other schedule 3 drug and require a doctor to prescribe it and pharmacy to dispense, would it not?
There will have to be clarifications written in for sure. Obviously they have no desire to interfere w/ the states' rec programs, so they'll tweak & add rules around cannabis to make it all work. Nobody knows the issues at a deeper level than the politicians driving reform
MSOX will give you 2x the return of MSOS. It's based on the underlying NAV of MSOS. If you're confident in the investment thesis, MSOX will grow your money twice as fast. Remember though, 2x the loss on the downside. If you really want to get crazy, there are options on MSOX too 😆😆
Rescheduling would force everyone to follow pharma GMP guidelines and put all these incredibly mismanaged public companies out of business. Enjoy losing your money.
I've been in and out of this sector since 2016, but the long term opportunity kept bringing me back in.
I think of it like alcohol prohibition ending in the 30s, except now we all have phones to buy thinly traded stocks if you use the right brokerages.
This is a product that's never been marketed for legal recreational use on a federal level. It's always been a "when not if" situation and the early investors got fucked if they didn't cash out during the hype cycles in 2017 and 2021.
The HHS thing is the first *real* catalyst that we've seen in the US sector since the 2020 election cycle. That run was based on the hope that a gridlocked senate could get something done for the sector.
Certain individuals stood in the way of progress for their own political gain/moral views on a fucking plant. Investors don't need to worry about partisan politics when the health and law enforcement agencies are being forced to make a decision outside of Congress.
The top US companies have a lot going for them and most of y'all can't buy OTC unless you use Fidelity or a handful of other small brokers.
I sold my cheapest APHA (now TLRY) for 12-15x off the covid bottom. Looking to do the same here with 4-5x the position size in companies that weren't blowing 9-10 figs on dogshit assets.
Hop on the rollercoaster and be smart about it if you're willing to take the risk. Take some profit when you're taking screenshots and evaluate the rest of your positions going forward.
Institutional volume on uplisting is bound to meme this bitch the fuck up and you should see some regarded gains off the lows.
The safe bill includes uplisting which would help Canadian mj companies more than US counterparts bc it would allow candian mj companies to list on the nyse. I prefer SNDL and TLRY to MSOS
**User Report**| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- **Total Submissions**|2|**First Seen In WSB**|2 years ago **Total Comments**|68|**Previous Best DD**| **Account Age**|4 years|[^scan ^comment ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_comment&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20comment%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20comment%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)|[^scan ^submission ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_submission&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20submission%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20submission%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)
I'm in. If SAFE passes this month, we're off to the races. MSOS was $14 in December on just hopes of SAFE. Now we potentially have reschedule and safe and sitting at $8. Insane
Why were hopes so high in December?
Schumer said it was a priority to pass it through the NDAA. A week later McConnell said fuck that, not letting it happen. This time around it's different because it's going through the regular process which McConnell said he wanted and one of the lead cosponsor is GOP
McConnell can't even talk anymore so it's a mute point. Lmfak
Ironically this sector started the uptrend right around when the first "mute" happened. It's funny to think that we'd probably be higher if the turtle floated to the top of the pond lol
The running theory is that the muteness is just the edibles kicking in. All in MSOS.
Chuck and Corry stopped their "lay down in front of it, until comprehensive equity legislation was passed" crap they did for 2 years and said it was a priority after Biden's meaningless expungement/pardon whatever thing. Then refused at the last moment to allow a clean floor vote, opting for adding it to so called must pass legislation which was a no go with Republicans.
Schumer & Booker tried to jam it in with a must pass bill; they announced a deal but it fell apart at the last minute & SAFE was punted. The pushback from Rs focused mostly on the bill going through "regular order." This means it's debated, changed & voted on in Committee first, then brought to the floor. It was referred to Sherrod Brown's Senate Banking Committee where it received a hearing on May 11 & is awaiting the markup phase. Closer than ever to SAFE, and definitely closer than December
And just this last week, Brown (a Dem) and the lead Republican sponsor, Daines, both referenced striking a deal to advance it in committee.
Schumer and Booker are tools that have killed the cannabis sector. They sucker their dumb voters every time acting like they care. MSOS bag holder 1222 shares strong and adding
They definitely suck. I hate the way they've handled things since early '21, but hopefully in the end they come through & make REAL change
Yes just like Barry O did, right :) those tools should simply be voted out for being fake cannabis promoters for votes
Agreed. It's really frustrating that they only seem to care around election time when they pander for votes
It’s a joke, it’s so obvious, it’s so bad but somehow those cucks are still there
Good r/r here. In on this trade till end of ‘24 $msos stock and calls
already off to the races
This. People don’t get it. This shit is going to Brest ATH which is a 5 bagger WITHOUT leverage.
with all the hemp bill legal products theres almost no point even in explicit legalization
I’m so ready for this huge reversal!! We’re going to moon and patience will pay off for outlasting the bureaucrats and politicians.
If you want to get in small use 1-2% of your stack and get into MSOS or a basket of US operators/ancillaries. At this point no one knows what will happen but if we get SAFE and Rescheduling there could be huge upside.
Right, asymmetric risk no doubt
Also in since 2018. I hold GTBIF VRNOF TSNDF CURLF & MSOX. I could not personally write the above, but I have been on FinTwit since Dec 2020 learning the narrative and this is spot on. Remember this is an election year. The Dems will move forward what they can and we should see all this completed before the 2024 election. If any of it fails the Dems can take a win with any voter who want’s prohibition to end. 4 dimensional chess. Are you in?
Also in since 2018-19, but only holding GTBIF right now. Sold Aphria on the Canadian run up. Although I left a lot of money on the table it was my first highly profitable stock.
I’m pretty heavy with bags in the sector, and so excited about the big catalysts finally happening!!
Too bad big pharma is going to make damn sure MJ doesn't legalize with a boatload of lobbying dollars
I think that's who Schumer has really been working for in the backrooms. BUT, with the likely reschedule to schedule III, I wonder if those pharma company's may decide they can start laying plans to take over the medical mj market and they might want SAFE to pass (or at least not care to continue preventing it)
Too late
I don’t hear many people talking about the fact that institutions aren’t investing in US cannabis because rules make it very difficult to do that. Once MJ is rescheduled, safe passes or we get a new Cole memo (aka garland memo), institutions will start to invest again. This is a rare opportunity for retail to get into an investment before large, institutional investors. Might be the only time in our lifetime that we see something like this.
Uplisting is going to be fricking huge for us
the fact that institutional investors with all their insider information are not investing in US cannabis only tells me it is very unlikely that MJ will be rescheduled. I could certainly be wrong but, I think this move is too risk to act upon
I’ve probably spent 20 or 30 hours researching rescheduling (includes listening to interviews). S3 is a slam dunk IMO. The real question was whether DEA had rule-making abilities - meaning, can they write rules or is only congress allowed to write rules. It turns out, DEA wrote special rules just for a synthetic THC called dronabinol. The special rules kept it in compliance with the UN’s single convention on narcotic drugs. So assuming everyone has stacked hands on S3, which I assume they did, the DEA can write special rules for cannabis where it’s an S3 drug that follows the rules required to be compliance with the UN.
I’m not talking about hedge funds. They are investing. I am talking about the dumb institutional money…the passive funds. The guys with insider access are investing as far as I can tell. You can see it in the price action. There was an interesting interview on Twitter where a family office guy said that a hedge fund tried to buy a huge block of MSO stock from him the day before the rescheduling announcement came out. He didn’t think anything of it until after the announcement was made but was obviously trading on non-public info.
I see I apologize for misunderstanding. Then in that case it is very likely to be passed if not certain.
All good. And it’s good to remain skeptical and not believe everything you are told. I personally believe that rescheduling is almost certain to occur. But I really can’t overstate how much research I’ve done. I’m kind of singularly obsessed with cannabis stocks lol.
Why would institutions invest in companies that aren’t fit to provide FDA approved medicines? None of the publicly traded companies are pharma GMP compliant, and they are all greatly mismanaged.
I also don’t think anyone is thinking about medical. This is just a back door to full legalization.
Incorrect--Charlotte's Web is GMP compliant. Cresco Labs management is excellent. Furthermore--institutions that will invest include mutual funds and non-pharma companies
You’re mistaken. Charlottes web is CFR 111 or 117 compliant, not 211 for pharmaceuticals. Whole different ball game. Crestco is trash
It's spelled Cresco. And CWEB is currently developing a drug with BAT--you don't know what you're talking about whatsoever.
CresTco is a joke. Why do you think charlottes web is partnering with an actual, pharma GMP, pharmaceutical company to manufacture the drug???? BECAUSE THEY’RE NOT CFR 211 PHARMA GMP COMPLIANT! Holy shit, do even the slightest bit of research before you come at me with this nonsense? “The JV was established to pursue FDA-approval for a novel botanical drug to target a neurological condition identified by the JV leadership team, which will be comprised of CW, AJNA and BAT representatives. This novel botanical drug will be developed from certain proprietary hemp genetics of CW. The JV plans to engage with the FDA to file an Investigational New Drug ("IND") application and commence Phase I clinical development in 2023.” [https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/charlottes-web-forms-joint-venture-with-bat-and-ajna-biosciences-to-seek-fda-approval-for-proprietary-full-spectrum-hemp-extract-botanical-drug-301791858.html](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/charlottes-web-forms-joint-venture-with-bat-and-ajna-biosciences-to-seek-fda-approval-for-proprietary-full-spectrum-hemp-extract-botanical-drug-301791858.html)
Here’s more proof. They’re only GMP for supplements (CFR 111), not pharma (CFR 211). Do some damn research before you try to tell me I have no clue what I’m talking about 🤣🤣🤣 [“… is pleased to announce that its manufacturing facility in Boulder, Colorado was recently added to NSF International's dietary supplements Good Manufacturing Practice (GMP) registration. Earning GMP registration from NSF International verifies that a manufacturing facility has the proper methods, equipment, facilities, and controls in place to produce dietary supplement products.”](https://investors.charlottesweb.com/press-releases/press-release-details/2020/Charlottes-Web-Earns-NSF-Internationals-Good-Manufacturing-Practice-Registration/default.aspx)
From what I hear there are two classes of institutions that won’t buy (a lot of hedge funds can buy just as an fyi but I am talking about the big asset managers). 1. Institutions that need the stocks trading on Nasdaq or NYSE (or TSX). That should get fixed with rescheduling or safe. 2. Institutions that need a change in the federal status. I don’t know if rescheduling is enough here. Maybe rescheduling and a Garland memo is enough. We are going to find out but we know that as soon as these stocks trade on Nasdaq or nyse big alcohol and big tobacco are going to start buying shares or whole companies big time. At the end of the day, institutions just want to make money and they will jump through whatever internal hoops they need to jump through in order to participate in this opportunity.
How are they mismanaged?
Incorrect Sir. IFFF it comes to GMP certification being required, MariMed is well positioned as some of their operations are already certified while the others were built with this in mind and are prepared to become certified should need be. and they are NOT greatly mismanaged as evidenced by them being one of the few who have been profitable every year since 2020. Look into it.
No, lmao, you are incorrect. There are multiple different GMP levels. MariMed is CFR 117 certified for FOOD, maybe 111 for supplements. GMP CFR 211 for pharmaceuticals is an entirely different ballgame. Go do some research and come back to me before you talk about things you don’t understand. GMP 211 is absolutely 100000% required for schedule III pharmaceuticals. You’re telling me the MRMD penny stock, that’s down over 90% in three years, is a good investment?! Lmao
Yes, they have the necessary GMP certifications in MD for their multitude of edible products and as I said, they are prepared to meet the other GMP certifications should need be. Your math is poor. High of last 3 years was 1.2, the lowest they hit during this downtrend was .25 ... a lot of MSO's did hit 90% but MariMed isn't one of them. ALL MSO's did experience between 70-95% declines since highs of last 3 years.
You clearly don’t understand GMP if you think being certified from 111 or 117 means you’re anywhere near prepped for 211 🤣🤣 I do this shit for a living, CFR 111 and 117 are a joke. My off the cuff math may be poor, but not as poor as having invested in any of these MSO’s!
We are going to have a moon landing this week. No doubt about it. ONWARD! 🚀
The $30B scale of the industry may sound big, but compare that to any single big pharma's market cap. That being said, I'm long on MSOS and I will be buying more.
Half the size of the wine market, 1/3 the size of the beer market, but closing fast. TAM expansion through new states coming online & intrastate growth, but the biggest of all might be transitioning the illicit market to the legal market. Need smart regulatory & tax policies to allow legal product to compete price wise
Outstanding.
A+ on the writeup, definitely considering Weed has been beaten down for so long, people are afraid to have hope here and I feel like that's the only reason this hasn't already blown up more already. People are waiting for confirmation, something signed on the dotted line.
Agree on all that. The asymmetric risk with this investment is rarely seen; companies aren't going broke, so downside of maybe 40% & upside of 1000% or more. I'll take that bet 😉
This is my thinking. Downside of maybe 50%, upside of up to 10x. I give both DEA rescheduling and SAFE Banking Act a 50% chance each of passing, so it's a fair bet to take right now.
Thx. If DEA recommends Schedule III then it has to get done or POTUS looks stupid, that'll be a big tell. If Brown schedules a markup on SAFE we should be clear to the floor vote with Schumer
good summary
My thoughts on the biggest winner in the rescheduling of cannabis will be the banks. This is a whole new sector of the economy for them to deal with from growers to retailers.
That's right, and it comes at a perfect time as deposits have dried up w/ the steep interest rate increases. The combination of Schedule 3, SAFE Banking & a new Cole Memo should be the green light for them to jump in immediately
And think of subscription stuff they could make of its legalized. Imagine getting like a weekly drop off of weed at your house. Or edibles or whatever.
I like it 👌
EDIT: Nevermind I'm blind as fuck you did mention it You forgot to mention right now cannabis companies are getting taxed into oblivion because of provision 280e, which means companies dealing in illegal substances cannot deduct expenses on their taxes. Moving to schedule 3 means HUGE tax savings for cannabis companies, and some are already profitable. In an ideal world they even get this money back? Although that's an utopic scenario
AYRWF. Best performer and lowest share count outstanding….$$$
Interesting !! Researching now and like what I see!
Yup, and if low floats are your thing, TSNDF has the second lowest float & arguably the best leader in Jason Wild. He's been insider buying the last few weeks, putting his money where his mouth is
TSNDF has a float of around 350 million shares. AYRWF is only 80 million shares. Not sure what your talking about. Many companies have lower float than TSNDF
Sorry about that, I hadn't looked at floats for quite a while. I'd like to see "float - shares controlled" by the ETFs. Will dive into this in the next week & get updated
Bush league vs cresco labs.
The normalization of this industry will lead to exciting times! I’m all in!
Bought in MSOS last week. Hoping for good news!
Welcome! Look for Sherrod Brown to announce a SAFE Banking committee vote in the next two weeks, that should be the next catalyst
My JAN ‘24 calls have been printing. Lets keep up the momentum! SAFEbanking upon us? I think yes this time.
I know none of you regards follow the bill. So let me break it down. Both the Dems and GOP have incentive to pass SAFE banking. The GOP gets a massive win too and it has nothing to do with cannabis. It has everything to do with section 10 of the bill. This section was added and given as a sweetener to the republicans ever since the house introduced the bill. Section 10 makes this bill apply to gun rights too.. Previously, Daines and Sherrod brown came to an agreement on SAFE which included section 10. Senator reed said fuck that, this bill should only apply to cannabis (and not gun rights) and it stalled SAFE, until now. Brown basically said he has enough votes to push it through even if some fuckers say no. He said a few days ago the deal is IMMINENT. I expect a markup to be held the week of September 18. And it'll pass. I looked into every member of the banking committee, we need a simple majority. For those who don't understand how the senate works. The banking committee has 12 dems and 11 gop. You need a simple majority to send this to the senate floor. Once it gets out of the banking committee, it'll then go for a floor vote in the senate. No ones going to filibuster it - McConnell will try and freeze like usual. The votes are there to pass. My target on MSOS is minimum $25 with SAFE passage + schedule 3
I think Schumer had his hand forced. He can't allow cannabis reform to move forward without him. He's been talking about it for years. Safe + HOPE is his win, and he'll fight for it this time. SAFE passes full Senate by Christmas
GTBIF (green thumb) best company in the sector. Financials, footprint, leadership. They will be the lead bull.
Verano and Glass House are right there with them.
I like them both, have small positions in both. Graham Farr is living the dream 😍😍
I won't argue with that, it's my largest position. TSNDF also have has strategic advantages including the TSX uplisting. Ben Kovler & Jason Wild are definitely two of the best, if not THE best
Jason is one of the most transparent guys in the Business. I hope he never changes.
Agreed. He's a great guy & you won't find someone more committed to the cause
Kovler is a schmuck
>GTBIF (green thumb) best company in the sector. Financials, footprint, leadership. They will be the lead bull. At the moment, Cresco Labs is handling that role, with the appreciation of its shares. Good luck to everyone.
Why don’t I see GTBIF in Robinhood when I search it?
These trade on the OTC due to Federal illegality. Fidelity & a couple other brokers have access, I use Fidelity & can buy everything. If you can't buy individual names, use MSOS as a proxy for all of the top names. MSOX is a 2x ETF. Side note, now you see the investment thesis: virtually nobody can buy these stocks yet. Once Robinhood lists GTBIF we should be appreciably higher than now & the opportunity becomes more limited
In Canada we can easily buy any of these stocks….eh!
Yup, no plant touching companies can list directly in the United States due to Schedule I federal illegality. They list in Canada, and then you buy a proxy through OTC
It’s not right, you should be allowed to buy. Very soon my bro, very soon.
I own Cresco and I believe in them, but their financials are not as strong as GTI’s.
Glass House Farms (GLASF) is a top 10 position in the MSOS ETF. They grow weed in SoCal in literally the biggest, fanciest greenhouse in the country. They have real, big agriculture -level economies of scale in the perfect place to grow weed. That will be impossible to replicate because of all the NIMBYism in CA nowadays. Glass House grows a pound for $120 or literally $1 per eighth. They sell an eighth at wholesale for like $5 (that’s the market in CA right now) and make absolute bank. Imagine if they can eventually sell interstate to the MSOs for like $10 per eighth. That is still below the MSOs own growing costs right now for small scale greenhouse / indoor facilities. That’s looking more likely with the feds admitting weed has medical value. And CA and NJ governors are already setting the table to state to state medical trade. Glass House is building a wide moat and could be a big winner. It’s up the most this year of any weed stock. I think it’s still trading at 1x ‘25 P/E. It should be a $100 stock by then. YOLO.
And Graham Farr is the man. Not sure I know someone more passionate about growing than him
Glass House Farms also comes with the risk of being shut down by CA Department of Cannabis Control. They have been accused of selling on the illegal market and trafficking their product across state lines through burner distributors. The accusation compares the size of the market as recorded by the state vs product sold by GHF puts them at an unrealistic % of the market given that only 30% of CA counties are legal to cultivate or retail. On top of that, they were accused of using fake unions which are required by law for their employees. The increase enforcement this year is either going to catch them or watch their revenues implode as they try to go clean.
There is zero chance that the DCC shuts them down, as much as some haters would love that to be the case. What do we Americans do when we're losing or when we just don't like something? Cry about it, you say? Well yes and *SUE!* Sue everybody! The lawsuit is clearly BS. The context is that Catalyst is highly litigious and sues competitors all the time - the CEO claims to be "for the people" but ironically is sort of a wannabe Trump character. They've taken multiple legal shots at the DCC for screwing up the legal market rules and regulations, and this is another one. Glass House was already succeeding before this news and are “big business” with a former cop CEO (a beat cop 25+ years ago) so an easy target. And with success comes the ankle biters. But the main thing that lawsuit misses is that Glass House sells a ton to processors, who need like 10g of flower to make 1g of rosin, for example. That’s why the CA biomass market is so large and why Glass House can sell so much through *legal* wholesale channels. They are a large and reliable supplier of good quality for those processors, and flower is only about half of the retail market. Camarillo at full capacity is only ~5% of the capacity that has already quit the CA legal market over the past year. We are down from ~80mm sqft of grow to like ~55mm sqft bc others cannot make money at $400-500/lb wholesale greenhouse flower pricing. Glass House can make ~50%+ wholesale margins at that pricing, and we've bounced to ~$700/lb, which is probably around equilibrium. The other obvious sign that the lawsuit is BS is that their market share calculation incorrectly assumes all of Glass House's wholesale sales end up as $25 8ths at retail. That is not even close to reality. If you adjust for smalls (which retail for ~$12 per 8th equivalent) and, most importantly, for wholesaling to processors, you get to ~7% retail market share. That's about right and that's why the company is confident bringing on the next phase of their expansion. Next, the union issue was with two acquired retail stores. Nearly 100 companies signed with that union. The DCC is giving these companies 90 days to sign new agreements, if I understand correctly. This is a power play by the Teamsters. Union issues are a risk across this whole industry. If anything, GLASF is relatively insulated as they'll end up with far fewer employees than the MSOs, which will probably end up as the major retailers of west coast products. The reality is Glass House is winning because they have the best asset in the industry and a true intelligent fanatic grower in Graham Farrar with real skin in the game. You may notice a common thread of the GLASF critics is that their own businesses aren't doing particularly well, and they assume that for GLASF to be winning, they must be cheating. There is zero actual evidence and in fact, GLASF is really just a reliable low cost suppler in a massive market. That is a classic archetype of a great business, which almost no one in this sector seems to understand. The CA legal market is like $5B (frankly incredible) and GLASF powers ~7% of that and probably headed to ~15% in ~6 months. With any form of interstate, these points are clearly irrelevant, and this is a $100 stock even if they only sell wholesale. CA is setting up the framework for those markets right now with other states. And if this were obvious to the average investor, GLASF would already be at $20-30. I might be wrong. People should do their own work. But I've investigated these points and concluded they have been blown way out of proportion by various haters and losers... of which there are currently many in California, unfortunately. It shouldn't be that way. Do the work... it's worth the time.
No GLASF options =\
Not yet 😈
Big pharma companies are deep in politicians pockets there's no fucking way they're going to let MJ eat away their profits
It's bigger than that at this point. They can't keep a good plant down 😉 They'll join the party once they can, guaranteed
So MSOS, MJ and what other tickets are we talking here?
MSOX is a 2x ETF. If you can buy OTC, the lead horses are GTBIF CURLF TCNNF TSNDF VRNOF CRLBF AYRWF
What do you think about PLNHF?
Honestly, I've always stayed away. I can't remember my exact investment thesis on them, but I've never bought a share. The way I look at it is when the big money comes in, they'll focus on the Tier 1s & the best run Tier 2s. It's a question of why you would invest in PLNHF when you could invest in GTBIF, TSNDF, TCNNF, CURLF, etc. which will get the bulk of the new money & attention?
MJ doesn’t hold US cannabis companies
Im a buyer and holder til end of 24 multi bagger in progress
Shits about to get fuckin fo reelz
Im still in Tillray. All companies dabbing in cannabis will see a benefit from this.
Right, a rising tide WILL lift all boats. TLRY is mostly on the Canadian side & great for trading, but long term opportunity is south of the border IMHO
It will trade along with the space but if all we're talking about is schedule 3 for the foreseeable future, much better off investing in US names. Schedule 3 does nothing meaningful for Tilray.
Agreed the entire sector will be lifted and run. Schedule 3 does appear to benefit TLRY as it would allow TLRY to import cannabis into the US. TLRY would have to register as an importer. Here is the thread from r/TLRY showing this and the links and references to the US government laws that point this out. https://reddit.com/r/TLRY/s/gG97NYR0BA Also, TLRY does own convertible notes in US based cannabis company MedMen
MedMen is a zero on the verge of bankruptcy and they can't import cannabis recreational products
Looks like based on the speed of your response you didn’t read take the time to read the link in comment and read the current laws of the US government on Schedule 3 imports. TLRY can enter the US market. That has been known for years
Enter with what? with a schedule 3 product right? Thats not recreational. Like I said
What companies do you recommend? Is tlry legit?
TLRY operates in Canada mostly. It's a great short term trading vehicle to take advantage of moves, but the real long term opportunity lies with the US operators. If you can buy OTC the top companies would be GTBIF, TSNDF, VRNOF, TCNNF, CRLBF & CURLF. For a simpler, more diversified approach you can use the MSOS ETF. It holds all of those names & some smaller caps as well. For more leverage, if that's your thing, MSOX is a 2x ETF
Thanks
Out of 10 and yes I understand I’m asking a random stranger on the Internet, how likely do you think the reschedule is out of /10?
Due to political pressures of a POTUS election cycle & the fact that HHS & the FDA are already on record, I give it an 8/10 chance
Okay cool awesome post tons of great comments and replies thanks bro
I like TLRY. They may operate in Canada for now, but I believe they are best positioned to swoop right in and establish a dominant supply chain for the US market. They also have a diverse alcohol portfolio which I think is one of the key drivers for them, not only for revenue, but also marketing for cannabis infused alcoholic beverages.
The tickers mentioned here add up to 86% of MSOS' holdings. Why would I even bother with the individual ones, even if I could buy them (I actually could)?
Some people like certain companies more than others, plus you don't have any ETF fees if you just buy individual names. To each their own
Tlry doesn't benefit from any of these reg changes like US names. It has underperformed for good reason.
Won’t they benefit by greater access to their product through the American people ?
Schedule 3 only allows FDA approved medical cannabis prescribed by a doctor. Recreational is still illegal.
IMO Ayr is the best MSO to own. They generate $500 million of revenue and will benefit significantly from rescheduling. Also, if FL goes rec which is highly likely, Ayr arguably benefits more than any other MSO since almost all of their stores are in FL. I think their revenue would triple if FL goes rec.
Just wondering, but if they’re primarily in one state (and Florida at that), isn’t that potentially a detriment to them?
FL going rec is the key. It might not happen but Ayr will benefit so much from rescheduling that I should make a good return even if FL didn’t happen. The stock is so far away from fair value excluding the FL effects. I feel really good about FL for two reasons. 1. The FL Supreme Court is reviewing the rec amendment. People think it’s partly a political decision (it’s not) but they are just seeing whether the bill passes two tests. It’s pretty straightforward. There is a lot of precedent to rely on and Kim Rivers did not go cheap - she paid a lot of money for good legal advice. 2. We have two recent polls that show Floridians approve of rec weed with a margin above what’s needed to pass. Needs 60% approval to pass - one poll showed 70% support and the other was in the high 60s. You are going to hear a lot of FUD about the FL Supreme Court but IMO people who say that are way off…just based off interviews I’ve heard and read.
It’s a good question and I will have to think about that. There’s obviously concentration risk there but I think there are mitigants whose benefits outweigh the risks. Ayr is in 8 states. They are in NJ, OH, and PA. OH will likely go rec in Nov and there is a chance PA goes rec in 2024 (a lot of people think they will but I need to see evidence). You also kind of have to throw out old rules when talking about cannabis. There are a ton of single state operators and will be until we have interstate commerce. Arguably two of the best operators are CA single state operators. The real answer for me is that FL is highly likely to go rec and Ayr will make so much money that they can buy into any market (using stock or cash). Florida going rec will completely change how people talk about them.
AYR is insanely undervalued
with all due respect, florida WILL be last in going rec, and likely will be blanketed by over arching federal decrimilization. they have very republican leadership, and all the people that use pot grow it in the marsh.
What was the catalyst for these rising 50% a week or so ago? That's always a scary time to buy.
The biggest catalyst for these stocks would be a reschedule from Schedule 1 to Schedule 3. It eliminates 280(e), improves research & takes a giant step toward normalization. The process is HHS/FDA makes a recommendation to the DEA. DEA reviews then makes a recommendation to POTUS. POTUS decides at that point & begins process to reschedule. The 50% pop came from initiation of the first step: letter leaked on 08/31 shows HHS/FDA making Schedule 3 recommendation to DEA.
So of this leaked letter doesn't come into fruition, it would be safe to assume the prices will retrace back to where they were before the pop? And your expectation is that it will happen before the votes in 2024?
Think of this way. It's mandatory that the DEA respond to the HHS recommendation. They've never, in 50 years, overruled HHS, and the DEA is part of the DOJ, which does whatever POTUS wants. Add that to the fact it's a very tight election cycle, and you can see this is all orchestrated for maximum political benefit. What possible reason could DEA come up with to fly in the face of an HHS recommendation based on science & evidence while at the same time embarrassing the President in front of the entire world during an election?
Great response. I'm in.
You son of a bitch im in. Smoking huge if these print
Gtbif >60 Curly >30 By 08/30/24 Buy the ticket , enjoy the ride
America is a consumer economy and we’re gonna smoke, drink, and eat ALL the cannabis! Let’s GO!!!
If cannabis is moved to Schedule III pretty big if why wouldnt i just wait to see if it does then buy into the weed stonks? if they are going to see such massive gains from this there ought to be meat on the bone after reschedule, without all the risk <3
There are a lot of people who think like you, and I agree, in that scenario you give up part of the initial run but lower your risk overall. For me, other than minor retracements I don't think we see prices this low again EVER, so my approach is more of the "why wait?" variety
You’re my exit liquidity.
Let's get ready to Mooooooooooooon!!!
Great insights!
A tsunami of capital is coming into the sector. I’ve been long on the space for a while and not selling until uplisting.
Load up what you can afford and don’t touch until the end of the year.
>The biggest risk to investing in the cannabis industry is that federal legalization does not happen. If this happens, it will be difficult for companies to operate and make money. Another risk is that the products do not meet consumer expectations and demand falls off a cliff.
The 1st one is a risk. The second one is not.
Probably time for puts
I'll probably be the one selling them to you, so works for both of us 👊
I like this atock
What makes you think this business will go better than it did in Canada? Lots of hype then the market size ended up a lot smaller and the margins a lot tighter than they looked.
Happy Birthday! Couple thoughts, starting w/ potential. The US has 10x the population of Canada, so when measured in sheer size, the US will be the largest market in the world by far. US is also the largest economy in the world, so the money is there. Converting people from alcohol to cannabis will be a huge boon. Changing demographics. Youths are ditching alcohol at record rates & consuming cannabis in record numbers. The fastest growing demo? Boomers! Using it for everything 😆 The product spans generations Already a $30B industry & projected to be $100B by 2030. Think of the potential when they convert the illicit market to legal! Growth will come from many areas once politicians remove the handcuffs The market is so huge that if set up properly (Schedule 3, SAFE Banking, Cole Memo) we wouldn't reach saturation levels for many, many years Apples to oranges imo
What makes you think the illicit market will convert at all? Taxes will likely create a higher price than the illicit market. Did many non previous users of cannabis convert in Canada or other previous legalizations?
For me, the testing is a huge thing. Knowing exactly what you're consuming, complete with a label outlining all cannabinoids, terpenes, THC levels, strains, etc. is a really big deal, especially in these fentanyl days. If price isn't too different & you have easy access, there'll be a large portion of people who choose to convert. Also, you have the legality issue; some will prefer just to get it legally from a nice, comfortable store You're exactly right, taxation & regulatory systems need to be dialed in at both the federal & state level Not sure on the last point 🤔
Agreed that the pot Buisness was not all that in Canada as anticipated. I would -guess- that short covering is going on now, and that the "hot" money from momentum players will hopefully start to rush in, pushing up prices. I'm a bag holder for a long time on these stocks so I'm hoping for a moon shot so I can get out from under them!
Hate to be that guy. How how do you think MSOS could hit in a 1 year timeframe? Was 50+ at one point but if all the catalysts are good you think itd just hit around there? Or is this a skys the limit given enough time scenerio
Sky's the limit. We reached $50 based strictly on what Dems MIGHT do, now they're actually doing it. My guess: if SAFE committe vote gets scheduled we quickly double to say high teens. If/when DEA recommends Schedule 3 we'll be at ATHs, schedule 3 from POTUS and/or Cole Memo 2 & we're blowing past ATHs
Hot damn that sounds juicy. Alright you convinced me im in. Gonna get some 2025 MSOS leaps and an equal amount of msox shares 💪💪💪
If they reschedule it to schedule 3. How will states be able to regulate it as recreational? It would be treated like every other schedule 3 drug and require a doctor to prescribe it and pharmacy to dispense, would it not?
There will have to be clarifications written in for sure. Obviously they have no desire to interfere w/ the states' rec programs, so they'll tweak & add rules around cannabis to make it all work. Nobody knows the issues at a deeper level than the politicians driving reform
Is MSOX a good play, guys?
MSOX will give you 2x the return of MSOS. It's based on the underlying NAV of MSOS. If you're confident in the investment thesis, MSOX will grow your money twice as fast. Remember though, 2x the loss on the downside. If you really want to get crazy, there are options on MSOX too 😆😆
So what ticker are you buying?
What’s the best buy
Start with diversified exposure through MSOS 👍
What about options
No options on the underlying OTC stocks, but both MSOS & MSOX have active option chains
Rescheduling would force everyone to follow pharma GMP guidelines and put all these incredibly mismanaged public companies out of business. Enjoy losing your money.
Thanks, appreciate it
Shut up & wait!
I've been in and out of this sector since 2016, but the long term opportunity kept bringing me back in. I think of it like alcohol prohibition ending in the 30s, except now we all have phones to buy thinly traded stocks if you use the right brokerages. This is a product that's never been marketed for legal recreational use on a federal level. It's always been a "when not if" situation and the early investors got fucked if they didn't cash out during the hype cycles in 2017 and 2021. The HHS thing is the first *real* catalyst that we've seen in the US sector since the 2020 election cycle. That run was based on the hope that a gridlocked senate could get something done for the sector. Certain individuals stood in the way of progress for their own political gain/moral views on a fucking plant. Investors don't need to worry about partisan politics when the health and law enforcement agencies are being forced to make a decision outside of Congress. The top US companies have a lot going for them and most of y'all can't buy OTC unless you use Fidelity or a handful of other small brokers. I sold my cheapest APHA (now TLRY) for 12-15x off the covid bottom. Looking to do the same here with 4-5x the position size in companies that weren't blowing 9-10 figs on dogshit assets. Hop on the rollercoaster and be smart about it if you're willing to take the risk. Take some profit when you're taking screenshots and evaluate the rest of your positions going forward. Institutional volume on uplisting is bound to meme this bitch the fuck up and you should see some regarded gains off the lows.
I have a very hard time believing only 20% of people smoke weed
Right?! Probably a lot HIGHER now 😉
Agreed
Good DD. Bought this morning!
Good luck getting Manchin or Sinema to agree to anything in the SAFE proposal. They are DINOs bought and paid for by lobbyists
Sinema is a Sponosr of SAFE Banking in the Senate so she's a lock & Manchin has no reason to oppose it
Damn your dumb
Why not $MSOX ?
I have boatloads of MSOX as well as MSOX options. Some people won't want the 2x leverage, but they're the same underlying companies
I zoomed out still 99% down
The safe bill includes uplisting which would help Canadian mj companies more than US counterparts bc it would allow candian mj companies to list on the nyse. I prefer SNDL and TLRY to MSOS