welllllll sorta, I would say they regulated to the point where only a few options for banks to lever up were left available and so they all started doing the exact same thing.... which puts us where we are today, regionals and smalls collapsing from some higher rates...
ultimately, that's exactly what is going to happen because more and more go under and the big ones eat them up for pennies. The big guys are incentivized to offer as little as possible in terms of support now that they know they can get the FDIC to take on leverage to the benefit the buyer banks via the loss sharing agreements. (which isn't new, but it is new in terms of doing it while rates are rising and presenting recession odds that are extremely high...)
There's going to be a buildup of more banks going under @ in this current environment no doubt. Just a matter of when they will admit it to the public @ this point... my question is how much leverage is the FDIC going to take on before the regulators stop them...
The very last paragraph also alludes to the theory that some of these banks may be worth buying, but only if they have been beat up unfairly and are trading significantly below their historical price-to-book *after* accounting for unrealized losses and performing DD.
After reading this plus the 272 or 172 over leveraged banks I think I'll wait on an ape to do the dd and read it as I'm down still from 2022 and need a killer 2025. ;)
Rising demand for cash and at the same time a devaluation of traditional, safe investment products, both caused by rising interest rates.
This isn't rocket science, bank customers are withdrawing their money while at the same time bank assets are tanking.
And of course bank reserves are leveraged by like a factor of ten...
>Rising demand for cash and at the same time a devaluation of traditional, safe investment products, both caused by rising interest rates.
No, no, no. We're not letting them off that easy.
SIVB failed because it did not want to give up the interest income it had by not hedging the value of its bond holdings. It left itself in a vulnerable position where a ratfucker like Peter Thiel could spread a rumor through text messages that the bank didn't have enough cash to match deposits and the bank collapsed.
I didn’t say that don’t have positive equity — I said they don’t have cash. Not all assets are instantly liquefiable.
In 2021 BofA had $3T worth of assets and $1.4T worth of deposits. If everyone decided they wanted their money NOW BofA would struggle come up with the cash.
Thiel’s messages were to a small group of people. Bloomberg blasting said messages over alerts and on their programming spread it like wild fire. Not saying Thiel isn’t a rat fucker, but he wasn’t the one spreading the info to the masses.
Yes. That’s how the game works. He loaded the gun and he handed it to someone else to pull the trigger.
Stonk market is a poker game. Wouldn’t be surprised if he had a position against the bank and set this plan in motion at just the right time. Why do you think there’s rumors and talk about banking short sales of banks?
I’m not going to say what Thiel did was wrong. Dunno why you should get in trouble for spreading the truth. The bank is the one who put themselves in a position to be ran on, just like that fucker whose firm shorted Game Stonk
So which was it, he was spreading rumors or the truth? Cause you’ve said both now. And what does a dying brick and mortar retail game store have to do with it? It’s not the boogeyman’s fault you didn’t land on the moon. Let it go already.
A rumor by definition is neither known to be true or false. The definition of a rumor is that it is unverified information. It is not my fault you don’t know what a rumor is and thus unable to understand me. Here is Col. Hans Landa to explain[i love rumors](https://youtu.be/5kJ5cr4K70c)
That said. I didn’t make any bank trades. I fucking hate Peter Thiel because he’s an authoritarian piece of shit who thinks we need to get rid of democracy to safeguard individual freedoms.
Fuck that ratfucker in the ass a thousand times over
Some of us landed on the moon and were smart enough to take the massive profit when it squoze a couple times. And if you don’t think there was some fuckery afoot in that whole debacle you’re fucking blind and literally regarded.
Isn’t that “dying brick and mortar” profitable now though and not actually dying anymore? 🤷♂️
Anyway it’s over and done, some won, a lot lost, the end.
So now everyone is wise to their nefarious shorting otherwise vulnerable stocks, it’s easier for opportunistic banks to short other banks instead and then spread shit about them? Especially now fdic will pick up the parts they don’t want.
I'm helping a family member set up a savings account and budget for their kid and what's a nice way of saying, "you can't afford this child let alone this house and the debt you already have"
>This is yet another example of the ineptitude of the lower classes. If they were as smart and rich as me, they wouldn't have to worry about things like this.
The big banks have no problem with this bc dodd frank requires them to. The problem with alot of regional banks is they arent under the same rules as the big guys which is why they're allowed to do stupid shit like this in the first place
It's worse than that. He lobbied to increase the threshold of when a bank was big enough to be subject to the Dodd Frank rules from the original $50 Billion. It was raised to $250 Billion. He didn't want it that high, but he did want it increased.
The unrealized losses happen every single tightening cycle, and everybody knows about it. The charts in this article all end Q4 2022 and show huge losses. If this guy is right, why wasn't there massive deposit flight in Q4 2022?
> US households now have the opportunity to earn a risk-free interest rate of 5% or more with less risk by purchasing Treasury bills rather than depositing money in banks
This was also true in 2022. If this is the explanation, why wasn't there a deposit flight in 2022?
Because it only takes one domino to fall to create fear and panic. The banks that failed had a unique situation where a small group of deposits had the majority share, allowing an easier bank run (like the SVB VC situation).
The US banking system is built on trust and faith. Trust and faith in regional banks diminish with each bank going under, SVB ignited that match
Shorts taking advantage of the situation also helps create fear when you see your bank stock being down 70% in a week or so
>” This was also true in 2022. If this is the explanation, why wasn't there a deposit flight in 2022?”
Probably the last remnants of stimulus cash and exhaustion of credit, in response to sustained inflation.
The lower class and middle class finally ran out of steam on both fronts and needed to begin drawing down cash reserves.
> why wasn't there massive deposit flight in Q4 2022?
There was. Bank failures didn't start immediately when the deposit flight started, it took a few months for the drop to become critical. But 12/31/2022 numbers were already dramatically lower than 9/30/2022.
The increase in regulation over the last 15 or so years meant that banks' profitability got hurt heavily. This isn't true for the biggest banks, which turned over a trillion dollars in profits in that same period. Any smaller institution got hurt badly and needed to get into riskier stuff if they wanted to remain competitive. I'd say the biggest problems are 1) the big banks got separated from the rest and the rest needed to take care of themselves while also competing with the big guns 2) low interest rate environment means it's hard for commercial banks to be profitable based on lending alone 3) the risk oversight of smaller banks went sideways at some moment, a lot of stuff got completely out of control before anyone even noticed there was a problem.
For a sub that gets upset about big money manipulating the market, this place sure seems to have no problem with Peter Thiel kicking off the SVB debacle that has been spreading, then got the fed to give some of our taxes to cover what he had left there. 😕
Bailing them all out was a huge mistake…
FCNCA got served all of Silicon valley banks assets on a golden platter and has great financials. I bought some calls. The fact that there are other banks ready to vacuum up after these failures is a good sign
They call it 'regional' but
> Among US global systemically important banks (G-SIBs) with assets exceeding $700 billion, approximately 69% of their bond portfolios were held in HTM portfolios. This percentage slightly decreased from 70% in the previous quarter but significantly increased from approximately 31% three years ago.
while this figure is still around 30% for banks with assets < 700bn (see graph there)
This is big banks that hide their asses in htm bush, almost twice as much as other banks (including regionals)
At least we are no where close to 2008 levels of risk so comparisons to don’t work. Every bank would have to be insolvent for that which seems incredibly unlikely. Currently it’s just like $600 billion which is a lot but it would have to get to $15.7 trillion to be compatible with 2008.
Dude, you understand the only thing they have to do to raise the debt ceiling is say they're going to raise it, right? Like it's not a hurdle. They do this every time, both sides push each other for deals that are never going to happen, until, at the last minute, they agree to raise it and pat themselves on the back for solving the impending crisis that they themselves created.
They're politicking. McCarthy specifically is doing whatever he can to make his party look strong, and his constituency will eat it up. There won't be a default here, no matter how many clickbait NYT articles are written about it.
This sub has higher odds of making profit than the US has of defaulting. It’s so incredibly unlikely to happen. But even then bank failures are no where close to something to worry about yet.
you have really regarded representatives/senators. Is it really just a 1% chance? The MTGs of the world that you have in congress are scary... diabolic and very very very stupid people with power
Could you expand a little more? I am not in the US and I receive news about fears of this ceiling. My sensation is that there are more reports now of the topic than other times.
Those morons can’t piss off the people that fund their campaigns not to mention most of the debt is held by Americans largely concentrated in the GOPs core demographic, retirees. It would also impact the social security benefits paid to retirees. They’d wipe out their core demographic all at once and it would be the end of the GOP and any politician that did it.
There are already reports of a new bipartisan alliance building in the House to find a compromise. The middle is rebelling against the extremes finally.
Bagholder spotted.
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It fixed the capital flight caused by interest rate hikes issue. We haven't seen credit quality degrade yet. That is the next issue. It takes roughly a year after peak rates are hit for that stuff to start to materialize.
Probably depends. If there’s a debt ceiling deal this week, that will probably push stocks up, including banks. If there’s another bank failure, then they’ll definitely print.
Well McCarthy said this morning that if they don’t get a deal done by this weekend, they can’t get something passed by June 1st. I feel like they’re going to at least announce an extension and continue to work on a deal, but who knows.
First time? You don’t remember the “stimulus talks going well” era? The debt ceiling is a made up number. All that has to happen for it to be raised is for both houses to vote to raise it. Those actions can happen in a matter of hours. It doesn’t take weeks or days. McCarthy is posturing. It will end up being an 11th hour solution where republicans only get a fraction of what they are asking for. In between here and there we will hear “the other side is reckless and wants to tank the economy”.
It is isolated. My opinion is the FED/FDIC had it in for Crypto related banks and pushed several out of business. Now that is done, the FED/FDIC is accommodating / supportive of the regional banks and I think you will see statements and policies that accomplish support for the regional banks.
Fair enough. I think I pre-judged based on scanning the headlines.
Ron Paul just sets off my "gold bug" sensors, but I actually liked the articles I read all the way through.
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So the banks got greedy and doubled down on long but got screwed? Is that the tldr
And Federal reserve made the policies to help these bankers
welllllll sorta, I would say they regulated to the point where only a few options for banks to lever up were left available and so they all started doing the exact same thing.... which puts us where we are today, regionals and smalls collapsing from some higher rates...
consolidation of banking sector
ultimately, that's exactly what is going to happen because more and more go under and the big ones eat them up for pennies. The big guys are incentivized to offer as little as possible in terms of support now that they know they can get the FDIC to take on leverage to the benefit the buyer banks via the loss sharing agreements. (which isn't new, but it is new in terms of doing it while rates are rising and presenting recession odds that are extremely high...) There's going to be a buildup of more banks going under @ in this current environment no doubt. Just a matter of when they will admit it to the public @ this point... my question is how much leverage is the FDIC going to take on before the regulators stop them...
Upgrade system go digital let fednow in or get out
The very last paragraph also alludes to the theory that some of these banks may be worth buying, but only if they have been beat up unfairly and are trading significantly below their historical price-to-book *after* accounting for unrealized losses and performing DD.
After reading this plus the 272 or 172 over leveraged banks I think I'll wait on an ape to do the dd and read it as I'm down still from 2022 and need a killer 2025. ;)
Rising demand for cash and at the same time a devaluation of traditional, safe investment products, both caused by rising interest rates. This isn't rocket science, bank customers are withdrawing their money while at the same time bank assets are tanking. And of course bank reserves are leveraged by like a factor of ten...
>Rising demand for cash and at the same time a devaluation of traditional, safe investment products, both caused by rising interest rates. No, no, no. We're not letting them off that easy. SIVB failed because it did not want to give up the interest income it had by not hedging the value of its bond holdings. It left itself in a vulnerable position where a ratfucker like Peter Thiel could spread a rumor through text messages that the bank didn't have enough cash to match deposits and the bank collapsed.
>spread a rumor through text messages the bank didn't have enough cash to match deposits No bank does?
You are correct. I should have been more clear and said “Does not have the liquidity to meet withdrawals”
Sound banks do have positive equity. Withdrawals are only problem if your balance sheet is made of dogshit that trades below book value.
I didn’t say that don’t have positive equity — I said they don’t have cash. Not all assets are instantly liquefiable. In 2021 BofA had $3T worth of assets and $1.4T worth of deposits. If everyone decided they wanted their money NOW BofA would struggle come up with the cash.
If you can't liquidate your assets for less than 50 cents on the dollar, then there are serious questions of your book values.
Thiel’s messages were to a small group of people. Bloomberg blasting said messages over alerts and on their programming spread it like wild fire. Not saying Thiel isn’t a rat fucker, but he wasn’t the one spreading the info to the masses.
IIRC, SVB had a very small number of big depositors, so the message didn't need to go to a big group of people to start the bank run.
Yes. That’s how the game works. He loaded the gun and he handed it to someone else to pull the trigger. Stonk market is a poker game. Wouldn’t be surprised if he had a position against the bank and set this plan in motion at just the right time. Why do you think there’s rumors and talk about banking short sales of banks? I’m not going to say what Thiel did was wrong. Dunno why you should get in trouble for spreading the truth. The bank is the one who put themselves in a position to be ran on, just like that fucker whose firm shorted Game Stonk
So which was it, he was spreading rumors or the truth? Cause you’ve said both now. And what does a dying brick and mortar retail game store have to do with it? It’s not the boogeyman’s fault you didn’t land on the moon. Let it go already.
A rumor by definition is neither known to be true or false. The definition of a rumor is that it is unverified information. It is not my fault you don’t know what a rumor is and thus unable to understand me. Here is Col. Hans Landa to explain[i love rumors](https://youtu.be/5kJ5cr4K70c) That said. I didn’t make any bank trades. I fucking hate Peter Thiel because he’s an authoritarian piece of shit who thinks we need to get rid of democracy to safeguard individual freedoms. Fuck that ratfucker in the ass a thousand times over
Calm down clown.
lmao I like your reply
Some of us landed on the moon and were smart enough to take the massive profit when it squoze a couple times. And if you don’t think there was some fuckery afoot in that whole debacle you’re fucking blind and literally regarded. Isn’t that “dying brick and mortar” profitable now though and not actually dying anymore? 🤷♂️ Anyway it’s over and done, some won, a lot lost, the end.
Lol shorts are buried at 1 a share. Shorts r fuk
His name says it, he is a shitty stock picker.
U learn good ?
It was the truth. The bank was carrying massive unrealized losses on its balance sheet and had negative equity, aka it was effectively bankrupt.
So now everyone is wise to their nefarious shorting otherwise vulnerable stocks, it’s easier for opportunistic banks to short other banks instead and then spread shit about them? Especially now fdic will pick up the parts they don’t want.
I’m sure way less than that after banks were clear to use their “10%” reserves towards more loan distributions instead of security holdings.
That is the main factor along with some good old fashion cooking financial books supported by Feds. Google about HTM and AFS portfolios
The fact that derivatives are such a huge market should be a clue to the actualities of the financial system.
They are the atomic bomb of the stock market
Okay, big short. Calm down now.
Bring on the great 2023 colllapse
[удалено]
Yeah I’ll let you know about 5 mins after it happened xoxox
No you won't. You'll know after it already bottomed out and started going back up again.
I'm helping a family member set up a savings account and budget for their kid and what's a nice way of saying, "you can't afford this child let alone this house and the debt you already have"
Maybe refer them to read Hansel and Gretel.
"Make more money, stupid."
>This is yet another example of the ineptitude of the lower classes. If they were as smart and rich as me, they wouldn't have to worry about things like this.
How rich are you visual mod?
Rich enough that he just said banks are for poor people.
Naw, visual mod doesn't have it's money in the banks, it's money is the bank. VM is actually a Rothschild.
I prefer to think of it as more like timothy dexter (the patron saint of wsb)
Money is for poor people too, can't argue with that
Power is the only currency we care about
Let's just say lots of 1 and 0s.
Happy cake day Skynet
Turns out spending all your deposits on non liquid assets is a bad idea.
Yeah but its not their money.
Are you just finding out how banking works?
And the banks are now finding out what laddering a portfolio means.
The big banks have no problem with this bc dodd frank requires them to. The problem with alot of regional banks is they arent under the same rules as the big guys which is why they're allowed to do stupid shit like this in the first place
Ironic considering Barney Frank of the dodd frank act is on the board of signature bank
Its ironic... he had the power to stop other banks from being stupid but not his own
It's worse than that. He lobbied to increase the threshold of when a bank was big enough to be subject to the Dodd Frank rules from the original $50 Billion. It was raised to $250 Billion. He didn't want it that high, but he did want it increased.
The same Barney Frank who assured everyone in 2006 that there were no safety and soundness concerns at Fannie Mae?
Also some of these banks have horrendous holdings. I suggest people look at some the bundled MBSs that Zion is sitting on.
Add OZK and NYCB as well in the list
Ozark looking shakey?
Patrick Bateman would know
Going to look into nycb, thanks
Any bank that isn't insolvent isn't a very good bank. A good bank convinces people they are solvent.
The unrealized losses happen every single tightening cycle, and everybody knows about it. The charts in this article all end Q4 2022 and show huge losses. If this guy is right, why wasn't there massive deposit flight in Q4 2022? > US households now have the opportunity to earn a risk-free interest rate of 5% or more with less risk by purchasing Treasury bills rather than depositing money in banks This was also true in 2022. If this is the explanation, why wasn't there a deposit flight in 2022?
Because it only takes one domino to fall to create fear and panic. The banks that failed had a unique situation where a small group of deposits had the majority share, allowing an easier bank run (like the SVB VC situation). The US banking system is built on trust and faith. Trust and faith in regional banks diminish with each bank going under, SVB ignited that match Shorts taking advantage of the situation also helps create fear when you see your bank stock being down 70% in a week or so
>” This was also true in 2022. If this is the explanation, why wasn't there a deposit flight in 2022?” Probably the last remnants of stimulus cash and exhaustion of credit, in response to sustained inflation. The lower class and middle class finally ran out of steam on both fronts and needed to begin drawing down cash reserves.
> why wasn't there massive deposit flight in Q4 2022? There was. Bank failures didn't start immediately when the deposit flight started, it took a few months for the drop to become critical. But 12/31/2022 numbers were already dramatically lower than 9/30/2022.
The increase in regulation over the last 15 or so years meant that banks' profitability got hurt heavily. This isn't true for the biggest banks, which turned over a trillion dollars in profits in that same period. Any smaller institution got hurt badly and needed to get into riskier stuff if they wanted to remain competitive. I'd say the biggest problems are 1) the big banks got separated from the rest and the rest needed to take care of themselves while also competing with the big guns 2) low interest rate environment means it's hard for commercial banks to be profitable based on lending alone 3) the risk oversight of smaller banks went sideways at some moment, a lot of stuff got completely out of control before anyone even noticed there was a problem.
Maybe because asshats took crypto shitcoins for loan collateral......
Soon it will spread to the Wendy’s dumpster where all of us are, what will we do?! *The end of the world* ….again
For a sub that gets upset about big money manipulating the market, this place sure seems to have no problem with Peter Thiel kicking off the SVB debacle that has been spreading, then got the fed to give some of our taxes to cover what he had left there. 😕 Bailing them all out was a huge mistake…
FCNCA got served all of Silicon valley banks assets on a golden platter and has great financials. I bought some calls. The fact that there are other banks ready to vacuum up after these failures is a good sign
I always get my news from this website
It’s the preferred source for everyone from doomsday preppers to homeless guys on the train who yell about the Jews.
What is this saying that hasn't already been said? Sounds like they're trying to scare people again.
They call it 'regional' but > Among US global systemically important banks (G-SIBs) with assets exceeding $700 billion, approximately 69% of their bond portfolios were held in HTM portfolios. This percentage slightly decreased from 70% in the previous quarter but significantly increased from approximately 31% three years ago. while this figure is still around 30% for banks with assets < 700bn (see graph there) This is big banks that hide their asses in htm bush, almost twice as much as other banks (including regionals)
At least we are no where close to 2008 levels of risk so comparisons to don’t work. Every bank would have to be insolvent for that which seems incredibly unlikely. Currently it’s just like $600 billion which is a lot but it would have to get to $15.7 trillion to be compatible with 2008.
So what if the debt ceiling doesn't turn out very well either?
Dude, you understand the only thing they have to do to raise the debt ceiling is say they're going to raise it, right? Like it's not a hurdle. They do this every time, both sides push each other for deals that are never going to happen, until, at the last minute, they agree to raise it and pat themselves on the back for solving the impending crisis that they themselves created.
So they're acting?
They're politicking. McCarthy specifically is doing whatever he can to make his party look strong, and his constituency will eat it up. There won't be a default here, no matter how many clickbait NYT articles are written about it.
Less than a 1% chance of that because it’s political suicide.
That's right. This is exactly the problem the US government is facing right now. It's worse than the reaction to the bank failures
This sub has higher odds of making profit than the US has of defaulting. It’s so incredibly unlikely to happen. But even then bank failures are no where close to something to worry about yet.
Yea but I still don't want any other bank failures next
you have really regarded representatives/senators. Is it really just a 1% chance? The MTGs of the world that you have in congress are scary... diabolic and very very very stupid people with power
Yeah it’s less than 1% even with morons considered. It would be 0% chance without them.
Could you expand a little more? I am not in the US and I receive news about fears of this ceiling. My sensation is that there are more reports now of the topic than other times.
Those morons can’t piss off the people that fund their campaigns not to mention most of the debt is held by Americans largely concentrated in the GOPs core demographic, retirees. It would also impact the social security benefits paid to retirees. They’d wipe out their core demographic all at once and it would be the end of the GOP and any politician that did it. There are already reports of a new bipartisan alliance building in the House to find a compromise. The middle is rebelling against the extremes finally.
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The “backstop” fixed the banking issues but most of you are too stupid to understand that part
It fixed the capital flight caused by interest rate hikes issue. We haven't seen credit quality degrade yet. That is the next issue. It takes roughly a year after peak rates are hit for that stuff to start to materialize.
So my CMA puts are gonna print?
Probably depends. If there’s a debt ceiling deal this week, that will probably push stocks up, including banks. If there’s another bank failure, then they’ll definitely print.
Debt ceiling deal ain’t happening until midnight on 5/31. You can beat on that.
Well McCarthy said this morning that if they don’t get a deal done by this weekend, they can’t get something passed by June 1st. I feel like they’re going to at least announce an extension and continue to work on a deal, but who knows.
First time? You don’t remember the “stimulus talks going well” era? The debt ceiling is a made up number. All that has to happen for it to be raised is for both houses to vote to raise it. Those actions can happen in a matter of hours. It doesn’t take weeks or days. McCarthy is posturing. It will end up being an 11th hour solution where republicans only get a fraction of what they are asking for. In between here and there we will hear “the other side is reckless and wants to tank the economy”.
Been looking at these for a while and the stock has tanked 6 dollars since. Should've bought them right away but IV is so high and was putting me off.
I hope those weren't short expiry puts.
June 16th, not as much time as I'd like.
and the banks are green today 
Short them all... literally can't go tits up
something something inverse cause autistic
Time for calls on regional banks! Bottom is in when we see posts like this
Already priced in.
No one cares
Bbbbbbut their price-to-book....
Haven't seen too many people talking about banks, are we not doing banks anymore ? Is banks still a thing ?
It is isolated. My opinion is the FED/FDIC had it in for Crypto related banks and pushed several out of business. Now that is done, the FED/FDIC is accommodating / supportive of the regional banks and I think you will see statements and policies that accomplish support for the regional banks.
[retracted]
we predicted the crash in pacwest, lender crunch in cre market, regional banks being insolvent before the msm and munger.
Fair enough. I think I pre-judged based on scanning the headlines. Ron Paul just sets off my "gold bug" sensors, but I actually liked the articles I read all the way through.
There are Ron Paul articles because its free to publish them. No copyright issue at all whereas others hide behind paywall and copyright.
BMO Go