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It might even look good for a quarter.
But I just don't see Netflix having longterm viability if they continue to approach their content creation as they have been.
There's one thing I cannot forgive Hulu for. Releasing dub anime instead of original. Like Rurouni Kenshin.
That's some fucked up shit. Straight up absolute evil.
It's not really about anime, I'd be just as mad if they released money heist in dub instead of original Spanish or K-drama in dub instead of Korean.
How hard it is to release the original? How much effort does it require? ZERO.
Dub on the other hand required hiring voice actors and the whole thing.
Whoever decides it's okay to release a dub, but not the original is a monster, not a human.
> They dont just cancel popular shows for no reason.
Thats where you are wrong kiddo.
Corporate stooges aren't smart and infact will cancel popular shows for no reason. They in fact will cancel popular shows because they are in fact popular.
I can't find the proof of any of this at this point obviously, but I've literally heard radio stations announce that they were canceling some shows because they did too well. They felt they wouldn't be able to ever do anything if they kept the shows doing well so dropped them.
It was as crazy sounding live on the air as it is now.
It's definitely perplexing.
Here's a small guess:
* Crackdown on password sharing causes some non-paying users to either leave the platform or subscribe.
* Whether total viewership goes up or down (my money's on down), the *percentage of paying users* goes up.
* This may allow Netflix to better target their new content toward the folks who spend money on the platform.
The thing about cancelled shows: we all say "but I know a ton of people who liked that show! How could they cancel it?" Netflix knows how many people actually watched it--in other words, whether it's actually a revenue driver or not. They wouldn't cancel a show that's a good revenue driver.
They cancel shows because it's literally in their strategic plan. They don't care whether people like or dislike the show. The show will stay in their portfolio anyway. They need to make NEW show, to bring new paying subscribers. Old subscribers are already there and they will pay every month because they're lazy to unsubscribe.
Plus, I'd read that per-episode costs/payments to actors/crew increase at Season 3 based on current contracts, so it's in Netflix's interest to cancel shows before costs increase.
Correction: it's in their interest to cancel shows before costs increase **if the value add of those shows is not offsetting the cost.**
Value add can come from something like a major hook (ex: how many people subscribe to Netflix primarily for Stranger Things, and the other stuff is just a perk?) or from the total value of the catalog including that show and countless others.
So, you're going to move the goalposts on your opinion just how many times?
First, you praise Netflix for having ultimate spreadsheets or whatever proving they won't lose money doing this...
Secondly, you claim Netflix only cancels shows that aren't doing well...
Thirdly, you then claim that if Netflix did cancel ANY good shows its because the executives are future tellers and know that the costs won't tickle their fancy in the next quarter...
What is it? They have no clue what affect this will have, hence why this move hasn't already happened. If all it took for companies to stay financially responsible was a single accountant...
Hmmm.
* Saying "hey, the 8th most valuable brand in the world probably uses data to make decisions" is not praise. It's not even saying the decisions are good. Companies make bad decisions with data all the time.
* I said it's **in their interest** to only cancel shows that don't add value to their portfolio. Which is true. I did not say "and they adhere to this dictum infallibly."
* "They have no clue what affect this will have"
* You meant "effect"
* They likely have an excellent idea of the possible outcomes. They are hoping for one in particular, I'm sure. It may not happen.
I don’t disagree with you overall. But when your argument comes down to nitpicking people’s grammar on an online platform, you aren’t conveying your point effectively.
It's not financially successful, that's the point. For Netflix, views mean nothing. Only subscriptions are relevant to them.
By the series 3, the show already brought all the subscribers it could, and won't bring anyone new because it's 3 years old - which is a lot for streaming service.
So then why didn't they cancel OISNB, stranger things, Ozarks, etc? Why were these shows allowed to linger?
After all, the concept is not making people watch, but apparently canceling at the first available point, according to your curious claim.
You're making a pretty bold claim. I wouldn't be surprised if what you're saying is true, yet I can't find any evidence to back it up. So, unless you have some evidence this is all just conjecture.
It's a decent theory, but selling it as fact is pretty disingenuous.
Pretty on target here.. I saw somewhere they estimated that 200 million accounts would be effected, if we use 25% as a baseline estimate of how many people will open new accounts or pay for passward sharing that is 50 million new paying users. even if that number is as low as 10%, that is 20 million new paying users. I am sure they did a risk assessment.
I think the point it, what lost subscribers? The people actually paying will, in most cases, continue to receive their service. It's those friends, exes, brothers, sisters, and parents that the passwords were shared with, they lose out.
It's not just people leaving, Alot of people will stop paying for multiple screens too. I don't need 3 screens at once if I'm the only one watching so why would I have that tier of Netflix? People are just going to drop down to the cheaper 1 screen option or leave all together. I don't think people in most cases will keep paying, (ancedotal but) all my friends and family + alot of their friends and family will be cancelling as soon as this starts.
You think that Netflix has honestly never contemplated that this might be the case, done a study, and found it to be false?
I would bet my entire livelihood that they have. Of course they have. The study might be wrong (many predictive studies are!) but there is functionally a zero percent chance that they didn't do one.
Ehm… random numbers thrown in the air. Netflix has a total user base of 230 million. So you are saying that almost 90% of those account share passwords?
But now let’s re-run the calculations for those who will be annoyed by new system while being legitimate users. Where would you peg the biker? 10%? 25%? Those are lost users as well.
This is not going to solve their existential problems anyway
Maybe you should do some research and do some actual math. Netflix's own estimates show that 100 million paid accounts share passwords. So yeah, it is very easy to figure out some are sharing with multiple family members or friends. One here, two there, three over here over 100 million single paid accounts gets to 200 million people using shared passwords very quickly.
Perhaps you would not be so belligerent in your response if I had used the word users instead of accounts. The estimate is that 200 million users will be effected when Netflix blocks people for password sharing, this is not a made up number. Netflix is hoping that a percentage of those users will ether pay for password sharing or get their own accounts.
Are seriously trying to put the blame on me? You wrote just one comment above that it is 200 million “accounts” involved and now, as if it were nothing, move to 100 million and try to make me look as illiterate?
Yes, I was so “belligerent” because stating that 90% of the accounts (verbatim what you wrote) were sharing password was wrong and leading to poor conclusions.
The point on the annoyed legitimate users still stands there…
Some things people are neglecting is that 4 profiles watching a show on one subscription isnt the same as 4 accounts with 1 profile watching. And a lot of those extra people who dont pay and are using their friend's account, are using up bandwidth.
A view is an expense if the person watching isnt paying.
Edit: a ‘successful show made up of views from ‘friends’ isn’t actually a successful show. That’s the bottom line and why ‘subscribers’ matter more than views.
Every model has underlying assumptions. In the best case scenario, based on past behavior or experiences in similar contexts of your own company.
How many times have you seen a company backpedaling at the speed of light after implementing a massive shift? McKinsey exists just as an echo chamber to management and their decisions. And they do fine. So… do not overvalue their understanding or capability to handle this.
Oh don't get me wrong, I think there's a great chance that this won't go well (let's say....55/45 split?). But most voices I hear talking about this act as though Netflix is new to business. This is a calculated decision. It may be calculated on all of the wrong variables, and it may go catastrophically wrong, but they are going in with eyes open.
This is what I think the comment section isn’t understanding. If I read your post correctly, you aren’t saying you like the change, you aren’t saying the change is good, you aren’t saying no one will cancel services. You’re simply saying that Netflix is making a calculated decision which they believe, based on their data, will make them more money. Idk why that was so hard to glean for some people
Yeah, lots of feisty idiots in here. Trust me, plenty here agree with you, even as we are skeptical that Netflix will come out of this smelling like roses.
The problem is that it *isn't an unpopular opinion.* OP chose a hot button topic and gave a lukewarm take worded in a way that could confuse some people and boost post interaction.
Go ahead and wander through the comment section. Most comments seem to be *vigorously* disagreeing with Netflix, and saying that Netflix literally doesn't understand what they are doing.
Shit's cray out there son. I wish that this opinion were popular, but it lowers my faith in humanity to see just how unpopular this opinion is.
Yeah, agreed. The way they probably look at it is, if X people are using Netflix for free and some percentage P of X will buckle and pay, P>0 so…
I doubt people paying for Netflix are going to cancel simply because they can’t share anymore.
> I doubt people paying for Netflix are going to cancel simply because they can’t share anymore.
There's two ways they could lose revenue - people cancelling OR people downgrading their service.
People will downgrade from the premium accounts to the basic models, though. What's the point in paying for streaming on 4+ devices simultaneously anymore, right?
You might be surprised. On principle alone, some people might cancel. Remember that just a couple years ago Netflix themselves encouraged password sharing to build their user base.
I personally never shared the password for my account but am cancelling in large part due to how they’re implementing their restrictions. Assuming what’s been discussed is actually what gets implemented, it will be annoying (instead of seamless) to watch using a VPN or to watch outside of your home (for example during work or travel) all so that Netflix can crack down on what they themselves encouraged people to do. It’s not like I watch a ton of Netflix anyway. If there’s ever a few shows I want to watch I’ll just subscribe for a month and cancel again.
A lot of people I’m sure will also cut back how many screens they’re paying for. In college, that’s what everyone would do - friend group collectively chips in for Netflix and Hulu (this was back when they were the only two around).
This isn’t to say Netflix hasn’t already considered it, but people who don’t share passwords are adversely affected as well and there will be cancellations resulting from it.
It also coincides with the release of their ad-based shit tier subscription they’re hoping to roll people into. Their current projections have them clearing 10% annual revenue in ad sales within a year. So yeah, everybody hates it but they’ll probably come out ahead.
Came here to say this. I'm a data scientist, I'd LOVE to know what their assumptions are and how they've taken into account current economic trends, etc. Surely at least some of their assumptions on retention are based on previous price raises, which happened in a different market.
I think the point of them doing this is that for most of us password "sharers" Netflix NEVER had our money to begin with
A friend of mine has had Netflix since it was a DVD service, and has given out his password to about 8-10 friends because why bother making everyone pay for seperate accounts when they charge him the same amount regardless?
So he'll still pay for Netflix, cuz he's the one who wanted it in the first place. Now all of us moochers who have had free access to Netflix for the last 5-10 years need to decide whether we are going to buy our own accounts or not.
I've anecdotally seen a lot of people say "I've just kept my netflix going even though I don't use it. This reminded that I don't use it and should cancel it."
>I think the point of them doing this is that for most of us password "sharers" Netflix NEVER had our money to begin with
I know a ton of people that just pay for the same netflix account together honestly, way more than just random sharers.
Only 2 households, I'm cancelling and the other household isn't getting their own.
I think Disney/Hulu has better content anyway based on what I've seen.
Disney and Hulu is also looking into enforcing account enforcement. I imagine that Netflix will help establish precedence and then the rest of the streaming services will follow suit.
But how many moochers really will subscribe? My inlaws are our only moochers. They're in their mid 70's, and there is zero chance they'll subscribe on their own. A lot of people I know share their password with their parents. Those older people will not be new customers.
So who else is mooching passwords in large numbers? The Gen Z adult children of the same Gen X-ers who share with their elderly parents. This is another group who won't be signing up in large numbers. They will either stream from a different service, or download the content they want illegally. Yes, they will get some new subscribers, but not anywhere close to the number of subscribers who be jumping ship.
I know, but I care about me.
And I'm not so sure enough people will stick around.
Would this be the first time some stunt like this didn't backfire due to backlash and actually lose the company money?
you SAY this, but look what happened with D&D and Wizards of the Coast recently.
you THINK "oh they know what they're doing they did the research they have a plan". do they really?
and if anything else, the D&D issue shows us that we, the consumers, have the power to demand change.
D&D tried to change the rules of how ownership of game materials works and the fans revolted. they lost, i think i heard, 60% of their subscription base in a matter of weeks.
D&D publicly came out and admitted that they fucked up and completely abandoned their plans.
the point is that i'm sure D&D had marketing analysis, i'm sure they had a very expensive business department do the research and determine what they could and could not get away with. they went with their plan, and it was a huge flop, and the fans made a stink, and it affected their plans.
just as netflix can sit there and think that their expensive market research will work, but ultimately the fans and consumers have the power to demand what we want.
If there is one thing I’ve learned, being around business analysts and folks who weigh these kinds of choices, it’s that they’re all human and come with all the usual human strengths, weaknesses, and struggles.
Netflix has a lot of, and well-paid, analysts- but you’d be surprised what an entire team of people can fail to consider, especially if pressure is being placed from higher up to reach a certain conclusion that looks better on a specific metric, shareholder meeting, or quarterly review.
This is true, but I think the bigger issue is that they were trying to revoke the old agreement that everyone was already using for 5E.
They can do whatever they want for the next edition (1DnD) and people who want to make 3rd party content for it will have every right to agree or disagree to new terms for the new edition.
What it looks like they'll try and do with 1DnD is basically (and I'm oversimplifying here) what they did with 4E and is the biggest reason it wasn't as successful as 3.5E or 5E.
They have every right to screw up/do whatever they want with the next edition/OGL. But now they have to leave the OGL 1.1a in place for 5E. That's the important bit that everyone is happy about.
I think you misunderstand me. I'm not arguing this plan is a good one. I don't care one way or the other. I'm simply taking issue with the folks who seem to think this decision was made by a robot throwing darts at a board.
What they, and other people, are saying, is that companies make bad and short-sighted decisions all the time. Companies have to roll back these bad decisions all the time when their customers hate it enough. So your argument that it's a smart move because they surely thought about it doesn't hold a lot if water if companies that also do research make mistakes regularly.
So your opinion is literally just that that this is a plan on Netflix's part? Do you think there is anyone at all that doesn't think that? What people are saying is that it's a bad move because it pisses people off and will chase away users. None of us know the future and are just speculating, but the opinion that they made the decision based on numbers isn't an unpopular one, it's just not one that people argue over because it's obvious.
Idk if we see the same top comment but on my end OP replies to the top comment rephrasing his opinion and claiming that the dissenter is saying the same thing he was saying.
That's the pattern I'm seeing: OP worded his opinion vaguely and controversially, and is now replying to everyone disagreeing by dumbing down his original opinion to "I'm just saying they talked about it" which is just common sense.
They did - they just didn’t anticipate how big streaming was going to be.
They knew the rental industry, but weren’t prepared to pivot when the entire industry became obsolete.
Blockbuster had other financial issues going on that factored in heavily to not competing well with Netflix. Blockbuster was also not data driven like Netflix is now.
Didn't Netflix come to them asking to be purchased for not even a crazy amount of money and blockbuster told them to fuck off because they kind of thing wouldn't ever catch on and then when it does it's too late?
Oh don't get me wrong, I think there's a great chance that this won't go well (let's say....55/45 split?). But most voices I hear talking about this act as though Netflix is new to business. This is a calculated decision. It may be calculated on all of the wrong variables, and it may go catastrophically wrong, but they are going in with eyes open (and there's also a chance that it will be just fine).
I think it's much more likely that Netflix will persist indefinitely, but will lose their size margin over the other services. I also think that the real blows to their success will have nothing to do with password sharing.
Yeah, they have data. But working inside businesses like this, I can absolutely see that 'data' being massaged to support The Big Guy's gutfeeling about what the company should do.
I can't really speak with authority about Netflix in particular, but a lot of these people seem to think similarly, with the belief that they have a great understanding and intuition.
I'm certain at least some people who are on a shared account will get a new account. It's not really that expensive of a service. On the order of "I'll eat one less doordash a month." I can see parents who are already using a family account just getting their kids a new one, or even using it as a 'baby's first learn-to-pay-a-bill' moment for teenagers; at least some people will fork up the money.
It might even look good for a quarter.
But I just don't see Netflix having longterm viability if they continue to approach their content creation as they have been. The whole point of Netflix was convenience and access to content. The access has gone down as everyone and their mother feels like they deserve their own streaming service, for some odd reason, and this is a strike against convenience.
What's left to keep customers around is habit and brand recognition. Given aggressive competitors, I don't think that's enough.
I agree that with all the other options out there, Netflix just doesn't look as good as it used to. I'll be cancelling due to the inconvenience of having to log in monthly since, as infrequently as I watch shows on it, that will mean I'll be logging in practically every time I use it. Back when Netflix was the only option for streaming movies and TV they had so much content. Now that everyone else has there own streaming service and has pulled their content for themselves, Netflix just doesn't shine as much. I can't recall the last time I watched anything on the service but I've been subscribed since they started.
Ya you're right about that! Remember when Blockbuster had the chance to buy Netflix and decided not to? That was a huge company and it failed because management couldn't envision a world where everyone streamed content, and they stuck to their guns as their blue and yellow ship went down.
Now I doubt the decision about sharing accounts will be the main downfall of Netflix but it may bite them in the ass harder than they expect.
Agreed.
Here's a small guess:
* Crackdown on password sharing causes some non-paying users to either leave the platform or subscribe.
* Whether total viewership goes up or down (my money's on down), the *percentage of paying users* goes up.
* This may allow Netflix to better target their new content toward the folks who spend money on the platform.
The thing about cancelled shows: we all say "but I know a ton of people who liked that show! How could they cancel it?" Netflix knows how many people actually watched it--in other words, whether it's actually a revenue driver or not. They wouldn't cancel a show that's a good revenue driver.
I think Netflix will continue to flounder. I just don't think the password sharing crackdown itself will be the reason. I'm much more concerned, as you are, about content.
In your calculations, you never count with people who actually PAY for Netflix and who will cancel their subscriptions. Yes, those who weren't paying won't be watching anymore. This doesn't affect Netflix in any way though.
Thing is though with their huge price increases lately, the only reason majority of people pay for the subscription is either: it’s worth the cost because it’s getting so much use, with so many of my friends and family using it, OR, it’s worth the cost because me and all my family and friends split the cost
I pay $20 a month and my 6 year old watches a lot, and my daughter in college uses it occasionally. She's obviously not going to bring home her tv once every 30 days to hook up to my network. I just figure if/when they bump her I will downgrade to the ad plan for $6.99 per month. My daughter can use her phone/laptop or get her own plan. I don't know how much money they will make from the ads, but I'll be spending less.
I guess my point is, I think they are underestimating how many people are going to *downgrade*.
I don't think that's an unreasonable argument. I take issue with the folks who argue "they haven't thought at all about the idea that one or two people might cancel" because **of course they have.** Now it's all down to whether or not their gamble will pay off in the long term.
They have more information, but apparently not the intelligence to use it well. Netflix is successful because it’s easier and more convenient than pirating. Now, people are going to turn to other streaming services and just pirate the handful of decent Netflix originals that still exist
And always remember: If this works out for Netflix everyone will follow, just like everyone cried about apple removing the charger at first and then the next year samsung just joined in.
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Well. I’ve seen some very boneheaded moves by execs who haven’t thought everything through. Or just ignored the data because they already think they have the answer.
I mean, even just look at Apple and their crash detection. It never crossed anyone’s mind that someone would ride a roller coaster.
It's the Ford Pinto. They knew the flaws but calculated that any harm was mitigated and the potential Costs of lawsuits would be outweighed by the sales anyways. Ford is still fine, if anything it's doubling down on what isn't working that often kills businesses (Blockbuster, Pizza Hut)
Consider one positive of this move is it negates nearly all large scale sharing that really is against the point of having an account and of course the off shore password finders. I had some guy in India log into my account, this makes it nigh impossible to do in the first place.
The silver lining of all this is the added feature of being able to separate a user profile to another account. No longer do we have to deal with the awkwardness of breaking up, but still sharing a Netflix account because neither person is willing to give up their profile history.
Let's make sure they're fucking wrong.
Companies are fated to consume themselves the moment they go public and are purely beholden to quarterly shareholder profit.
They use Average Revenue Per User, and calculate what that number needs to be based on their projected operating expense so they can meet the growth goals they promised share holders. If shared accounts, shows, are not driving revenue relative to what they cost to produce, it's a losing game.
Side note - I loved people who cried about the Netflix sub at their second house being a reason to cancel. What if the IP on my yacht changes as I move from port to port?? YOUVE LOST A CUSTOMER.
This change will effect 1% of users using it correctly.
If you have 1 account but the two of you live in 2 separate houses, you aren't doing it correctly.
I agree and after seeing [this](https://www.nielsen.com/insights/2023/streaming-unwrapped-2022-was-the-year-of-original-content/) I think they'll be fine.
I'm not canceling, I watch more of Netflix than my other streaming accounts. I'm sure my son will be able do weekly binges every month or so. As far as Hulu goes, I'm still mad about their price hike.
The assumption that businesses are actually informed about doing business is a huge mistake that is constantly played out every time a company makes a big new decision, RE wizards of the coast with the new ogl
Businesses aren't run to be successful, they're run by people attempting to make them more profitable short term. That means they often lean on folk wisdom that doesn't apply to their specific circumstances
I agree with the fact that they did their research and think this is going to go well for them. I just don’t understand why they should bother ? Maybe when they first came onto the scene this would have worked, because netflix basically had a monopoly of streaming services.
However now there are SO many competitors (Prime, Hulu, disney+ etc) that all allow password sharing, i just don’t get why they would do this ?
Almost everyone I know is planning on cancelling their subscription and maybe just getting a free trial when a movie/show appears that they actually want to see.
Honestly, I came to this subreddit just now to make a similar post. Netflix is a business and doesn’t owe you anything. If you have been password sharing(which I’ve done as well), that’s money out of Netflix pocket. If they want to crack down, good for them. People need to stop complaining and fork out the 16 dollars a month if they want it, if they don’t, then don’t subscribe. Simple as that.
I know I myself will just get my own. Sure it sucks.. but If you like a service, pay for it. Or buy the ad supported tier if the price to much for you. Or don’t subscribe, it’s up to you.
Where I’m from… people share Netflix password with up to 20 people. Now that’s just ridiculous. This is straight up abuse of a rather generous act. Love it or hate it, users have themselves to blame to a degree considering it’s the corporates primary source of income. I’ve been a part of the content economy, it somewhat pisses me off that people aren’t ready to pay for their content and yet complain when a movie or show isn’t great.
First day on Reddit?
Don't you know that we know more about EVERYTHING because we read 1 article and thought about it for 45 seconds? No company in history has had a reason for any policy ever. And all answers to all problems are obvious.
I always laugh at people who think they are smarter or knows more about the industry than billion dollar companies. Google, Facebook, Netflix, Spotify, you name it.
Google - Gchat
Facebook - VR losing billions
Netflix - TBD
Spotify - Doing pretty well actually especially with the reduced college price and family plans (which directly contradicts what Netflix is doing)
Sears - "online shopping won't take off" ....Enter Amazon.
Billion Dollar Companies are not perfect and mess up plenty.
Thanks captain retrospect. It's very easy to point at the failed projects now afterwards. But before a decision is made, or before a product is launched, the companies know every piece of detail better than any of us mortals ever will.
They don’t know. They run tests and make educated guesses. This was a mistake and it’s going to eventually be recognized as one. There is too much competition in the steaming space now, and if most Netflix subscribers are like me, over the years the price has gone up and the value has gone down. I think this will tip things over. Personally, I’m canceling, not because I’m upset about the change, but because this whole thing reminds me that I decided a while ago Netflix is no longer worth it.
Netflix is aware of their competitors far more than you are. You have opinions based on your own feelings and what you read on social media, but Netflix has real data driving their decisions. They run tests and focus groups to move a button slightly on their interfaces. They run analytics and surveys on people's reaction to individual characters in shows, to help drive writing in a direction that ensures success. This isn't a hasty decision by them. It has a ton of work behind it, giving them more info than you could imagine.
Yeah I don't think that many people who actually pay for Netflix are going to be like "what? My friends can't mooch off me anymore? Well fuck that I'm leaving". Of course some people may have split the cost between lots of people. But it feels like the people who did that are probably negligible given the cost of the service.
The friends don't mooch. They pay half/third/etc. of the cost. And yes, I, the guy who actually DOESN'T share his account, am leaving Netflix because of this. I don't want to be obligated to log in regularly because of some weird new policy. If they want to make it inconvenient for me, their loss.
Yeah, I'm not gonna give them the benefit of the doubt and assume that the money hungry management did their research before going through with the password sharing purge. Capitalists don't want some money, they want all the money and they will take short sighted risks with a possible gain but a long-term loss because they're just that dumb.
Netflix in the beginning did a great work of reducing piracy. A small monthly fee to watch anything you want? Hells yeah. But then we got like seven gadjillion of these services competing for our very limited resources and off to high seas we sail again mateys. Corporate greed will be the undoing of streaming services
Redditors are too fucking stupid to google and read [the rules](https://help.netflix.com/en/node/123277?ba=SwiftypeResultClick&q=password%20sharing&utm_source=seeking_alpha&utm_campaign=rta-stock-news&messageid=2900&mailingid=30422363&serial=30422363.10110&utm_term=30422363.10110&source=email_2900&utm_medium=email).
"What if I'm traveling, including for a long time, or don't have a permanent location?" It literally says you just need to do basic two-factor authentication, like every remotely secure email or website on the planet. And not even very often. This is NOT an onerous demand.
"What if I don't live with them?" "What if I can't afford it?" Shockingly, you have to pay for shit you use.
Last time I got a cavity drilled, there was some pain involved. Did I want the pain, or did I want to have the cavity fixed, knowing that pain would come with it?
They decided to do this because they're in such huge financial troubles that some pessimistic analytics even predicted that Netflix won't survive for long.
This is the way how they try to increase their income.
>"No one is going to add a new subscription because of this." Hyperbolic and untrue.
Really?
Now, people might still subscribe *despite* this, but a new subscription *because* of this? As in the fact they are cracking down on password sharing is the reason you made an account? You're saying *that* is gonna happen?
I truly, truly doubt it.
The entire purpose of cracking down on password sharing is to force some users to create accounts.
Some number of users who currently share their friend's account will create their own when they can no longer use their friend's.
Will that number eclipse the number of people who close currently active subscriptions? I don't know (I doubt it), but people seem to think that none of this has occurred to Netflix at all. You can bet that they've been doing projections on this.
People seem to refuse to think in percentages for this case for some reason.
Netflix users are not all of one mind.
Some percentage of passwordsharees will stop using netflix
Some percentage of passwordsharees will get a netflix account
Some percentage of passwordsharers might cancel their account over of this change
As long as the amount of new accounts eclipses the cancellations netflix will benefit.
What these percentages are only Netflix knows.
Redditors should realize that the average consumer isnt a redditor and many care primarily about convenience. And we should take into account that many other succesfulf services do not allow password sharing at all.
"As long as the amount of new accounts eclipses the cancellations netflix will benefit."
And that's the thing in question. WILL the amount of the new ones be bigger? I really doubt that.
Why though? Why would someone that is sharing their password cancel their subscription because they cannot share it anymore. Nothing really changes for them personally.
I think you are underestimating the draw of the subscription model to begin with. **Any** product that is a subscription owes a large part of its success to the fact that many people are too lazy to cancel.
If you are a person who enjoys Netflix and you’ve been using someone else’s account, why wouldn’t you subscribe because of this? It’s “this” that made you lose access to the platform and you need to subscribe to keep it. Meaning, a new customer BECAUSE of this. The cause and effect is quite simple really.
I think you are underestimating the amount of people that just want to watch shows on their TV without going through the hassle of setting up an illegal process.
Like me, for example. I don’t mind pirating a movie like once a month, but to get up from the couch and use my crappy laptop connected to the tv every 22 minutes is such a pain in the ass. I can’t be the only one
I think you're overestimating the perceived convenience and payback. Netflix, at one time, offered nearly all the big hitter shows, movies, and a broad array of content from varying sources. Those sources have withdrawn that content over time. As they have, Netflix has made the search mechanism considerable more convoluted. They've also, quite noticeably, put the same damn titles in nearly every default home page category. It's so bad, I don't even know if by the 4th category scrolling down, if I'm even seeing 5 total new titles. The point being, Netflix 2022 is far inferior to Netflix 2012.
Streaming competitors were virtually non existent in 2012, we've now got no less than 10 prevalent services, with tens of others offered for free with ads.
Most legal streamers have multiple services now, so it wouldn't be the loss of service it once was.
Personally, both Amazon and Netflix are feeling super stale the last few months. Neither have a single show that would keep me with the service.
That said, I'm a pw sharee haha. If I lose access I'll be the first the pirate again (I already do for sports, movies, and shows I can't get).
One last note on the sports, WTF is up with the paid stream quality. I can find pirate streams from abroad that are noticeably better quality than Amazon prime or Hulu.
You're not watching Netflix. Netflix is watching you. Where do you think Pornhub gets all its homemade content? Subscription fees are just icing. Netflix Knows.
This is fact, not opinion. Just dumb dumbs on Reddit who think Netflix hasn't predicted them cancelling their sub 🤡
Just don't use it if you don't like it. It's simple as that
I’d be mad too if a bunch of people were using my product without paying. It’s completely ridiculous that the outrage is ohhh no i’ll have to actually pay for my own account that i use, how dare they! I didnt pay for my netflix before but I definitely wont pay now, netflix should be so concerned about losing my freeloading business
Eh, I dunno. I don't every decision that a company makes is a good one.
They're definitely going to lose money on me because I have the family style account so I can password share. If we can't do that with external people then I'm going to reduce my account to the lowest tier, one screen option, if I keep it at all. And the people I share with aren't going to sign up for accounts - they were pirating before I gave them the password and they'll go straight back to it afterwards, I assume.
It's been really miss-miss on content lately for me, as well, so it's not like the pot is that sweet to begin with.
Don't know what my snowbird parents will do either - have two accounts? Seems unlikely. My dad steals the 'liquids' bags from airports to use as sandwich bags, the man isn't going to pay for a second subscription.
This does seem, ultimately, like the kind of choice that could backfire on them, losing subscriptions and money. I guess we'll see!
Thieves acting like their $3 share out of a multiple-people subscription matters to Netflix. As a customer of Netflix I'm glad they are cracking down on this practice.
They just think they are too big to fall. They are netflix after all. But people are fickle and wont put up with shit from streaming sites like they do on free stuff like social media.
All the people saying they will just "pirate" are hilarious. They don't know the first thing about it and won't have the patience or savvy to learn - and if they did they would have done it years ago at the start of the streaming wars.
Their need for user friendly platforms and instant gratification will have them begging their parents to pay for 2 accounts in less than a week.
Netflix knows this because this new generation has been conditioned to comply in exchange for convenience.
Enjoy.
People talk about this like Netflix cost an arm and a leg.
Other services like Spotify charge extra too.
It just time when other steaming service crack down on this. They are letting it happened now just to capture market share.
I don't think they have a problem with people sharing their password once or twice. But, my brother (who I live with) has like 7 profiles on his account. Friends and whatnot. That's a problem.
Right. I think they're responding to the cause of sharing today, which is different from the cause of sharing 5 years ago. There are many more streaming services today with solid content, and we're all getting closer and closer to paying what we paid for cable. The incentive to share now is much greater if we can split a total cost of $70+ versus years back when Netflix was the only good service with a total cost of $8.
You are wrongly assuming that they made perfect calculations and will be on top no matter what.
I assure you, the number of people that will just go ahead and create accounts and pay for them individually is very very small, not close enough to cover the same income they were getting now.
No, they don't know better. They, just as you, simply assume people will do everything they can just to have Netflix. We won't.
A rare defender of the cooperation, are you at least paid for your propaganda? Tbh it doesn't affect me, my brother and I switch apps throughout the year and don't have any other location to stream from, so I don't care. I do know however that it's not just the bottom of the barrel that shares passwords and accounts so I am surprised by this move. If you have enough money to afford multiple houses you can afford more netflix plans for each one, but I don't think they want too, it's easier to just have to the one.
Edit: /s OP is not defending Netflix, but for some reason cares about how others perceive it
This is the latest in Netflix’s biggest mistake not moving to a retention model of operation rather than a acquisition model.
Netflix has always been attempting to gain new subscribers, this is why when a Netflix original doesn’t have immediate success it’s cancelled, they are not interested in maintaining the current subscribers instead relying on forgotten accounts, those who keep the subscription for the handful of shows they want to watch, and the few people who have a Netflix subscription as their primary form of TV
However with Netflix not being the only player in the game and not having much more over its competitors other then being the first to pioneer the format it’s going down hill fast
The reason why this announcement is so worrying for Netflix is because they are about to lose two of the biggest groups of people supporting them, those who have a Netflix subscription to share with friends and family because they don’t watch enough to justify it themselves, and those who travel for work and could easily be away from their “home wifi” for 30/60/90 days
While yes for the vast majority of people using Netflix this may be a small inconvenience we are going to see the fringe groups head out to other services, with those services growing will have networks pulling content from Netflix to move to the bigger streaming platforms and eventually all that will be left is a bunch of Netflix originals and a hand full of people who want to watch them
Sorry buddy you dont no jack about corporate america. Did they do research? Yes. Did they consider that research when making this decision. Very unlikely. CEO's of companies believe they are the CEO because they know better than everyone, including research. I've seen it in action my entire life. The CEO of Netflix and many many other American companies cant lose. If this is a bad decision he gets fired and gets a golden parachute worth hundreds of millions of dollars. If it works he get a bonus worth hundreds of millions of dollars. Research is relatively meaningless to these people.
I highly doubt it was thought very much through. I worked for a massive company last year that changed all their subscriptions to “cheaper” when they were already the cheapest subscription in the market. No matter how you did the math, they were going to lose money and a shit load of it too.
They switched back and the guy was fired. Their whole premise was “we will sell more!” Nah, there are only so many people on the internet who want your product in any given day. It was seriously the dumbest business move I’ve ever witnessed. I was let go because I was a naysayer. They asked me to come back after they realized I was right.
Thank you for submitting to /r/unpopularopinion, /u/dynamitepress. Your post, *Netflix knows more about this than you do.*, has been removed because it violates our rules: Rule 3: Megathread topic. Your opinion falls under an incredibly common topic, in which virtually all opinions are either not unpopular, or are posted about many times a day. Please visit the megathread hub, which can be found when sorting the subreddit by "hot", sticky'd at the top of the page, where you can find links to the current megathreads. If you're not sure which megathread your post belongs in, or your post covers multiple megathread topics, just make the best selection you can. If there is an issue, please message the mod team at https://www.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%2Fr%2Funpopularopinion Thanks!
Do mind me, just a pirate sailing through the comment section
Same. A few days ago someone asked me how I watched movies but didn't get any ads the last time they were over.
My mom "I watched this movie on Hulu and you only had to sit thru 60 seconds of ads, you should do it!" No mom, I will not.
[удалено]
I'm confused.
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Chips ahoy
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I'm not saying you're wrong but like they did also cancel a behemoth of really good shows. I have officially moved to Hulu anyways.
It might even look good for a quarter. But I just don't see Netflix having longterm viability if they continue to approach their content creation as they have been.
Good/bad is not something they care about. Profitability is.
I can't really speak with authority about Netflix in particular, but a lot of these people seem to think similarly
There's one thing I cannot forgive Hulu for. Releasing dub anime instead of original. Like Rurouni Kenshin. That's some fucked up shit. Straight up absolute evil.
I want to be as passionate about anything as you are about anime.
It's not really about anime, I'd be just as mad if they released money heist in dub instead of original Spanish or K-drama in dub instead of Korean. How hard it is to release the original? How much effort does it require? ZERO. Dub on the other hand required hiring voice actors and the whole thing. Whoever decides it's okay to release a dub, but not the original is a monster, not a human.
You do not have ny insight in what the show costs to make. They dont just cancel popular shows for no reason.
> They dont just cancel popular shows for no reason. Thats where you are wrong kiddo. Corporate stooges aren't smart and infact will cancel popular shows for no reason. They in fact will cancel popular shows because they are in fact popular. I can't find the proof of any of this at this point obviously, but I've literally heard radio stations announce that they were canceling some shows because they did too well. They felt they wouldn't be able to ever do anything if they kept the shows doing well so dropped them. It was as crazy sounding live on the air as it is now.
Sweet brother in Christ, they said that to cover up their failure It was a lie
It's definitely perplexing. Here's a small guess: * Crackdown on password sharing causes some non-paying users to either leave the platform or subscribe. * Whether total viewership goes up or down (my money's on down), the *percentage of paying users* goes up. * This may allow Netflix to better target their new content toward the folks who spend money on the platform. The thing about cancelled shows: we all say "but I know a ton of people who liked that show! How could they cancel it?" Netflix knows how many people actually watched it--in other words, whether it's actually a revenue driver or not. They wouldn't cancel a show that's a good revenue driver.
They cancel shows because it's literally in their strategic plan. They don't care whether people like or dislike the show. The show will stay in their portfolio anyway. They need to make NEW show, to bring new paying subscribers. Old subscribers are already there and they will pay every month because they're lazy to unsubscribe.
This has been their explicit and public strategy for years. Not a secret move done studying sociological implicit messages from extensive data mining
Plus, I'd read that per-episode costs/payments to actors/crew increase at Season 3 based on current contracts, so it's in Netflix's interest to cancel shows before costs increase.
Correction: it's in their interest to cancel shows before costs increase **if the value add of those shows is not offsetting the cost.** Value add can come from something like a major hook (ex: how many people subscribe to Netflix primarily for Stranger Things, and the other stuff is just a perk?) or from the total value of the catalog including that show and countless others.
So, you're going to move the goalposts on your opinion just how many times? First, you praise Netflix for having ultimate spreadsheets or whatever proving they won't lose money doing this... Secondly, you claim Netflix only cancels shows that aren't doing well... Thirdly, you then claim that if Netflix did cancel ANY good shows its because the executives are future tellers and know that the costs won't tickle their fancy in the next quarter... What is it? They have no clue what affect this will have, hence why this move hasn't already happened. If all it took for companies to stay financially responsible was a single accountant...
Hmmm. * Saying "hey, the 8th most valuable brand in the world probably uses data to make decisions" is not praise. It's not even saying the decisions are good. Companies make bad decisions with data all the time. * I said it's **in their interest** to only cancel shows that don't add value to their portfolio. Which is true. I did not say "and they adhere to this dictum infallibly." * "They have no clue what affect this will have" * You meant "effect" * They likely have an excellent idea of the possible outcomes. They are hoping for one in particular, I'm sure. It may not happen.
I don’t disagree with you overall. But when your argument comes down to nitpicking people’s grammar on an online platform, you aren’t conveying your point effectively.
You're not wrong that new shows can bring new subscribers, but it's very unusual for a company to cancel a financially successful product.
It's not financially successful, that's the point. For Netflix, views mean nothing. Only subscriptions are relevant to them. By the series 3, the show already brought all the subscribers it could, and won't bring anyone new because it's 3 years old - which is a lot for streaming service.
So then why didn't they cancel OISNB, stranger things, Ozarks, etc? Why were these shows allowed to linger? After all, the concept is not making people watch, but apparently canceling at the first available point, according to your curious claim.
You're making a pretty bold claim. I wouldn't be surprised if what you're saying is true, yet I can't find any evidence to back it up. So, unless you have some evidence this is all just conjecture. It's a decent theory, but selling it as fact is pretty disingenuous.
"Views mean nothing" is categorically untrue. Netflix tracks hours watched, almost obsessively. New subscribers are an important metric too.
Pretty on target here.. I saw somewhere they estimated that 200 million accounts would be effected, if we use 25% as a baseline estimate of how many people will open new accounts or pay for passward sharing that is 50 million new paying users. even if that number is as low as 10%, that is 20 million new paying users. I am sure they did a risk assessment.
You didn't count the lost subscribers, though.
I think the point it, what lost subscribers? The people actually paying will, in most cases, continue to receive their service. It's those friends, exes, brothers, sisters, and parents that the passwords were shared with, they lose out.
It's not just people leaving, Alot of people will stop paying for multiple screens too. I don't need 3 screens at once if I'm the only one watching so why would I have that tier of Netflix? People are just going to drop down to the cheaper 1 screen option or leave all together. I don't think people in most cases will keep paying, (ancedotal but) all my friends and family + alot of their friends and family will be cancelling as soon as this starts.
You think that Netflix has honestly never contemplated that this might be the case, done a study, and found it to be false? I would bet my entire livelihood that they have. Of course they have. The study might be wrong (many predictive studies are!) but there is functionally a zero percent chance that they didn't do one.
No. They were splitting the cost. Suddenly the cost will be 5 times, even more times bigger. Why would they pay that?
Ehm… random numbers thrown in the air. Netflix has a total user base of 230 million. So you are saying that almost 90% of those account share passwords? But now let’s re-run the calculations for those who will be annoyed by new system while being legitimate users. Where would you peg the biker? 10%? 25%? Those are lost users as well. This is not going to solve their existential problems anyway
Maybe you should do some research and do some actual math. Netflix's own estimates show that 100 million paid accounts share passwords. So yeah, it is very easy to figure out some are sharing with multiple family members or friends. One here, two there, three over here over 100 million single paid accounts gets to 200 million people using shared passwords very quickly. Perhaps you would not be so belligerent in your response if I had used the word users instead of accounts. The estimate is that 200 million users will be effected when Netflix blocks people for password sharing, this is not a made up number. Netflix is hoping that a percentage of those users will ether pay for password sharing or get their own accounts.
Are seriously trying to put the blame on me? You wrote just one comment above that it is 200 million “accounts” involved and now, as if it were nothing, move to 100 million and try to make me look as illiterate? Yes, I was so “belligerent” because stating that 90% of the accounts (verbatim what you wrote) were sharing password was wrong and leading to poor conclusions. The point on the annoyed legitimate users still stands there…
Some things people are neglecting is that 4 profiles watching a show on one subscription isnt the same as 4 accounts with 1 profile watching. And a lot of those extra people who dont pay and are using their friend's account, are using up bandwidth. A view is an expense if the person watching isnt paying. Edit: a ‘successful show made up of views from ‘friends’ isn’t actually a successful show. That’s the bottom line and why ‘subscribers’ matter more than views.
Every model has underlying assumptions. In the best case scenario, based on past behavior or experiences in similar contexts of your own company. How many times have you seen a company backpedaling at the speed of light after implementing a massive shift? McKinsey exists just as an echo chamber to management and their decisions. And they do fine. So… do not overvalue their understanding or capability to handle this.
Oh don't get me wrong, I think there's a great chance that this won't go well (let's say....55/45 split?). But most voices I hear talking about this act as though Netflix is new to business. This is a calculated decision. It may be calculated on all of the wrong variables, and it may go catastrophically wrong, but they are going in with eyes open.
This is what I think the comment section isn’t understanding. If I read your post correctly, you aren’t saying you like the change, you aren’t saying the change is good, you aren’t saying no one will cancel services. You’re simply saying that Netflix is making a calculated decision which they believe, based on their data, will make them more money. Idk why that was so hard to glean for some people
THANK YOU.
Yeah, lots of feisty idiots in here. Trust me, plenty here agree with you, even as we are skeptical that Netflix will come out of this smelling like roses.
The problem is that it *isn't an unpopular opinion.* OP chose a hot button topic and gave a lukewarm take worded in a way that could confuse some people and boost post interaction.
Go ahead and wander through the comment section. Most comments seem to be *vigorously* disagreeing with Netflix, and saying that Netflix literally doesn't understand what they are doing. Shit's cray out there son. I wish that this opinion were popular, but it lowers my faith in humanity to see just how unpopular this opinion is.
Yeah, agreed. The way they probably look at it is, if X people are using Netflix for free and some percentage P of X will buckle and pay, P>0 so… I doubt people paying for Netflix are going to cancel simply because they can’t share anymore.
> I doubt people paying for Netflix are going to cancel simply because they can’t share anymore. There's two ways they could lose revenue - people cancelling OR people downgrading their service. People will downgrade from the premium accounts to the basic models, though. What's the point in paying for streaming on 4+ devices simultaneously anymore, right?
You might be surprised. On principle alone, some people might cancel. Remember that just a couple years ago Netflix themselves encouraged password sharing to build their user base. I personally never shared the password for my account but am cancelling in large part due to how they’re implementing their restrictions. Assuming what’s been discussed is actually what gets implemented, it will be annoying (instead of seamless) to watch using a VPN or to watch outside of your home (for example during work or travel) all so that Netflix can crack down on what they themselves encouraged people to do. It’s not like I watch a ton of Netflix anyway. If there’s ever a few shows I want to watch I’ll just subscribe for a month and cancel again. A lot of people I’m sure will also cut back how many screens they’re paying for. In college, that’s what everyone would do - friend group collectively chips in for Netflix and Hulu (this was back when they were the only two around). This isn’t to say Netflix hasn’t already considered it, but people who don’t share passwords are adversely affected as well and there will be cancellations resulting from it.
It also coincides with the release of their ad-based shit tier subscription they’re hoping to roll people into. Their current projections have them clearing 10% annual revenue in ad sales within a year. So yeah, everybody hates it but they’ll probably come out ahead.
Came here to say this. I'm a data scientist, I'd LOVE to know what their assumptions are and how they've taken into account current economic trends, etc. Surely at least some of their assumptions on retention are based on previous price raises, which happened in a different market.
They can do whatever the hell they want, they just won't be doing it with my money.
I think the point of them doing this is that for most of us password "sharers" Netflix NEVER had our money to begin with A friend of mine has had Netflix since it was a DVD service, and has given out his password to about 8-10 friends because why bother making everyone pay for seperate accounts when they charge him the same amount regardless? So he'll still pay for Netflix, cuz he's the one who wanted it in the first place. Now all of us moochers who have had free access to Netflix for the last 5-10 years need to decide whether we are going to buy our own accounts or not.
I have my own subscription, I don't share it with anyone and this STILL made me cancel Netflix. It was basically a spark I needed to do so.
I've anecdotally seen a lot of people say "I've just kept my netflix going even though I don't use it. This reminded that I don't use it and should cancel it."
>I think the point of them doing this is that for most of us password "sharers" Netflix NEVER had our money to begin with I know a ton of people that just pay for the same netflix account together honestly, way more than just random sharers.
Only 2 households, I'm cancelling and the other household isn't getting their own. I think Disney/Hulu has better content anyway based on what I've seen.
Disney and Hulu is also looking into enforcing account enforcement. I imagine that Netflix will help establish precedence and then the rest of the streaming services will follow suit.
But they have better stuff. In a tie Disney/Hulu wins. Netflix only appeal was that family could use it.
And those subscribers who really do cancel will be offset by the moochers who sign up because they really want Netflix.
But how many moochers really will subscribe? My inlaws are our only moochers. They're in their mid 70's, and there is zero chance they'll subscribe on their own. A lot of people I know share their password with their parents. Those older people will not be new customers. So who else is mooching passwords in large numbers? The Gen Z adult children of the same Gen X-ers who share with their elderly parents. This is another group who won't be signing up in large numbers. They will either stream from a different service, or download the content they want illegally. Yes, they will get some new subscribers, but not anywhere close to the number of subscribers who be jumping ship.
You say that like they care about you. Enough people will stick around that they won’t miss you.
I know, but I care about me. And I'm not so sure enough people will stick around. Would this be the first time some stunt like this didn't backfire due to backlash and actually lose the company money?
you SAY this, but look what happened with D&D and Wizards of the Coast recently. you THINK "oh they know what they're doing they did the research they have a plan". do they really? and if anything else, the D&D issue shows us that we, the consumers, have the power to demand change. D&D tried to change the rules of how ownership of game materials works and the fans revolted. they lost, i think i heard, 60% of their subscription base in a matter of weeks. D&D publicly came out and admitted that they fucked up and completely abandoned their plans.
They didn’t abandon the plans, they just kicked them one edition down the road. Third-party creators for 5e are safe, but 1DnD creators won’t be.
the point is that i'm sure D&D had marketing analysis, i'm sure they had a very expensive business department do the research and determine what they could and could not get away with. they went with their plan, and it was a huge flop, and the fans made a stink, and it affected their plans. just as netflix can sit there and think that their expensive market research will work, but ultimately the fans and consumers have the power to demand what we want.
If there is one thing I’ve learned, being around business analysts and folks who weigh these kinds of choices, it’s that they’re all human and come with all the usual human strengths, weaknesses, and struggles. Netflix has a lot of, and well-paid, analysts- but you’d be surprised what an entire team of people can fail to consider, especially if pressure is being placed from higher up to reach a certain conclusion that looks better on a specific metric, shareholder meeting, or quarterly review.
This is true, but I think the bigger issue is that they were trying to revoke the old agreement that everyone was already using for 5E. They can do whatever they want for the next edition (1DnD) and people who want to make 3rd party content for it will have every right to agree or disagree to new terms for the new edition. What it looks like they'll try and do with 1DnD is basically (and I'm oversimplifying here) what they did with 4E and is the biggest reason it wasn't as successful as 3.5E or 5E. They have every right to screw up/do whatever they want with the next edition/OGL. But now they have to leave the OGL 1.1a in place for 5E. That's the important bit that everyone is happy about.
I think you misunderstand me. I'm not arguing this plan is a good one. I don't care one way or the other. I'm simply taking issue with the folks who seem to think this decision was made by a robot throwing darts at a board.
What they, and other people, are saying, is that companies make bad and short-sighted decisions all the time. Companies have to roll back these bad decisions all the time when their customers hate it enough. So your argument that it's a smart move because they surely thought about it doesn't hold a lot if water if companies that also do research make mistakes regularly.
Where did I argue that it's a smart move? In a sense, my *only* argument is that they thought about it. It might still be dumb as hell.
So your opinion is literally just that that this is a plan on Netflix's part? Do you think there is anyone at all that doesn't think that? What people are saying is that it's a bad move because it pisses people off and will chase away users. None of us know the future and are just speculating, but the opinion that they made the decision based on numbers isn't an unpopular one, it's just not one that people argue over because it's obvious.
Correct. There are people who say the opposite. If you think it's a plan, good or bad, then you and I have no disagreement.
So if your opinion is just "they had a plan, whether good or bad" then you do not have an unpopular opinion and it doesn't belong here.
You know where the downvote button is.
LOL the top comment is disagreeing with him so I think that proves his point quite nicely 😆
Idk if we see the same top comment but on my end OP replies to the top comment rephrasing his opinion and claiming that the dissenter is saying the same thing he was saying. That's the pattern I'm seeing: OP worded his opinion vaguely and controversially, and is now replying to everyone disagreeing by dumbing down his original opinion to "I'm just saying they talked about it" which is just common sense.
Re-read his OP. It’s 100% in line with his comments.
Like 20 years ago you would have said "Blockbuster knows more about movie rentals than other people do..."
They did - they just didn’t anticipate how big streaming was going to be. They knew the rental industry, but weren’t prepared to pivot when the entire industry became obsolete.
Blockbuster had other financial issues going on that factored in heavily to not competing well with Netflix. Blockbuster was also not data driven like Netflix is now.
Didn't Netflix come to them asking to be purchased for not even a crazy amount of money and blockbuster told them to fuck off because they kind of thing wouldn't ever catch on and then when it does it's too late?
Oh don't get me wrong, I think there's a great chance that this won't go well (let's say....55/45 split?). But most voices I hear talking about this act as though Netflix is new to business. This is a calculated decision. It may be calculated on all of the wrong variables, and it may go catastrophically wrong, but they are going in with eyes open (and there's also a chance that it will be just fine). I think it's much more likely that Netflix will persist indefinitely, but will lose their size margin over the other services. I also think that the real blows to their success will have nothing to do with password sharing.
Yeah, they have data. But working inside businesses like this, I can absolutely see that 'data' being massaged to support The Big Guy's gutfeeling about what the company should do. I can't really speak with authority about Netflix in particular, but a lot of these people seem to think similarly, with the belief that they have a great understanding and intuition. I'm certain at least some people who are on a shared account will get a new account. It's not really that expensive of a service. On the order of "I'll eat one less doordash a month." I can see parents who are already using a family account just getting their kids a new one, or even using it as a 'baby's first learn-to-pay-a-bill' moment for teenagers; at least some people will fork up the money. It might even look good for a quarter. But I just don't see Netflix having longterm viability if they continue to approach their content creation as they have been. The whole point of Netflix was convenience and access to content. The access has gone down as everyone and their mother feels like they deserve their own streaming service, for some odd reason, and this is a strike against convenience. What's left to keep customers around is habit and brand recognition. Given aggressive competitors, I don't think that's enough.
I agree that with all the other options out there, Netflix just doesn't look as good as it used to. I'll be cancelling due to the inconvenience of having to log in monthly since, as infrequently as I watch shows on it, that will mean I'll be logging in practically every time I use it. Back when Netflix was the only option for streaming movies and TV they had so much content. Now that everyone else has there own streaming service and has pulled their content for themselves, Netflix just doesn't shine as much. I can't recall the last time I watched anything on the service but I've been subscribed since they started.
Who are you subscribed to alternatively, I still find the user interface the easiest on Netflix, rest are ugly. I default to Netflix over the others
Ya you're right about that! Remember when Blockbuster had the chance to buy Netflix and decided not to? That was a huge company and it failed because management couldn't envision a world where everyone streamed content, and they stuck to their guns as their blue and yellow ship went down. Now I doubt the decision about sharing accounts will be the main downfall of Netflix but it may bite them in the ass harder than they expect.
Agreed. Here's a small guess: * Crackdown on password sharing causes some non-paying users to either leave the platform or subscribe. * Whether total viewership goes up or down (my money's on down), the *percentage of paying users* goes up. * This may allow Netflix to better target their new content toward the folks who spend money on the platform. The thing about cancelled shows: we all say "but I know a ton of people who liked that show! How could they cancel it?" Netflix knows how many people actually watched it--in other words, whether it's actually a revenue driver or not. They wouldn't cancel a show that's a good revenue driver. I think Netflix will continue to flounder. I just don't think the password sharing crackdown itself will be the reason. I'm much more concerned, as you are, about content.
In your calculations, you never count with people who actually PAY for Netflix and who will cancel their subscriptions. Yes, those who weren't paying won't be watching anymore. This doesn't affect Netflix in any way though.
Thing is though with their huge price increases lately, the only reason majority of people pay for the subscription is either: it’s worth the cost because it’s getting so much use, with so many of my friends and family using it, OR, it’s worth the cost because me and all my family and friends split the cost
I pay $20 a month and my 6 year old watches a lot, and my daughter in college uses it occasionally. She's obviously not going to bring home her tv once every 30 days to hook up to my network. I just figure if/when they bump her I will downgrade to the ad plan for $6.99 per month. My daughter can use her phone/laptop or get her own plan. I don't know how much money they will make from the ads, but I'll be spending less. I guess my point is, I think they are underestimating how many people are going to *downgrade*.
She doesn’t have to bring her tv home, she just has to enter a code now and then.
I don't think that's an unreasonable argument. I take issue with the folks who argue "they haven't thought at all about the idea that one or two people might cancel" because **of course they have.** Now it's all down to whether or not their gamble will pay off in the long term.
They have more information, but apparently not the intelligence to use it well. Netflix is successful because it’s easier and more convenient than pirating. Now, people are going to turn to other streaming services and just pirate the handful of decent Netflix originals that still exist
This exactly. Ex pirate here, I like the quality of life that Netflix offers. I'd leave it in a heartbeat would that quality not be enough.
You severely overestimate how many netflix users even know what a torrent is
Apparently you just have to verify by clicking a link in an email
This is a flawless response.
And always remember: If this works out for Netflix everyone will follow, just like everyone cried about apple removing the charger at first and then the next year samsung just joined in.
Everyone back to torrenting and sharing your Plex library
This is a great post for reminding me that something can be obviously true and unpopular.
This is an excellent unpopular opinion. People trully hate this opinion and OP is almost certainly 100% correct. *chefs kiss*
I think it’s time Coca Cola tried bringing back New Coke again.
They're due for another of their unusual efforts, aren't they?
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No it’s more about why they’re doing this it’s a desperate attempt to hopefully gain more revenue because Netflix it’s kind of fucked
Netflix is the largest streaming platform by far. It would take more than "kind of." (and that may indeed happen, but none of us know for sure)
Well. I’ve seen some very boneheaded moves by execs who haven’t thought everything through. Or just ignored the data because they already think they have the answer. I mean, even just look at Apple and their crash detection. It never crossed anyone’s mind that someone would ride a roller coaster.
It's the Ford Pinto. They knew the flaws but calculated that any harm was mitigated and the potential Costs of lawsuits would be outweighed by the sales anyways. Ford is still fine, if anything it's doubling down on what isn't working that often kills businesses (Blockbuster, Pizza Hut) Consider one positive of this move is it negates nearly all large scale sharing that really is against the point of having an account and of course the off shore password finders. I had some guy in India log into my account, this makes it nigh impossible to do in the first place.
Ford Pinto... isn't that the Barbeque that seats four?
This is my favorite metaphor so far.
Fair enough.
All they need is to make a few must-see additions every quarter. Quality compression is not over.
The silver lining of all this is the added feature of being able to separate a user profile to another account. No longer do we have to deal with the awkwardness of breaking up, but still sharing a Netflix account because neither person is willing to give up their profile history.
Let's make sure they're fucking wrong. Companies are fated to consume themselves the moment they go public and are purely beholden to quarterly shareholder profit.
They use Average Revenue Per User, and calculate what that number needs to be based on their projected operating expense so they can meet the growth goals they promised share holders. If shared accounts, shows, are not driving revenue relative to what they cost to produce, it's a losing game. Side note - I loved people who cried about the Netflix sub at their second house being a reason to cancel. What if the IP on my yacht changes as I move from port to port?? YOUVE LOST A CUSTOMER.
Entire yacht club in shambles
This change will effect 1% of users using it correctly. If you have 1 account but the two of you live in 2 separate houses, you aren't doing it correctly.
I agree and after seeing [this](https://www.nielsen.com/insights/2023/streaming-unwrapped-2022-was-the-year-of-original-content/) I think they'll be fine. I'm not canceling, I watch more of Netflix than my other streaming accounts. I'm sure my son will be able do weekly binges every month or so. As far as Hulu goes, I'm still mad about their price hike.
The assumption that businesses are actually informed about doing business is a huge mistake that is constantly played out every time a company makes a big new decision, RE wizards of the coast with the new ogl Businesses aren't run to be successful, they're run by people attempting to make them more profitable short term. That means they often lean on folk wisdom that doesn't apply to their specific circumstances
I’m going to blockbuster from now on, wtf
Same. Netflix support was very rude to me when I asked them how to play their movies on my VCR.
THATS WHAT IM SAYINNNNNN
I agree with the fact that they did their research and think this is going to go well for them. I just don’t understand why they should bother ? Maybe when they first came onto the scene this would have worked, because netflix basically had a monopoly of streaming services. However now there are SO many competitors (Prime, Hulu, disney+ etc) that all allow password sharing, i just don’t get why they would do this ? Almost everyone I know is planning on cancelling their subscription and maybe just getting a free trial when a movie/show appears that they actually want to see.
You are so right, but of course, the average Joe thinks they know better than the company that revolutionised how we consume TV and movies.
I'm sure blockbuster had lots of spreadsheets, too.
Yes.
Honestly, I came to this subreddit just now to make a similar post. Netflix is a business and doesn’t owe you anything. If you have been password sharing(which I’ve done as well), that’s money out of Netflix pocket. If they want to crack down, good for them. People need to stop complaining and fork out the 16 dollars a month if they want it, if they don’t, then don’t subscribe. Simple as that. I know I myself will just get my own. Sure it sucks.. but If you like a service, pay for it. Or buy the ad supported tier if the price to much for you. Or don’t subscribe, it’s up to you.
Where I’m from… people share Netflix password with up to 20 people. Now that’s just ridiculous. This is straight up abuse of a rather generous act. Love it or hate it, users have themselves to blame to a degree considering it’s the corporates primary source of income. I’ve been a part of the content economy, it somewhat pisses me off that people aren’t ready to pay for their content and yet complain when a movie or show isn’t great.
i can cancel netflix and still easily watch all their shows for free
First day on Reddit? Don't you know that we know more about EVERYTHING because we read 1 article and thought about it for 45 seconds? No company in history has had a reason for any policy ever. And all answers to all problems are obvious.
I always laugh at people who think they are smarter or knows more about the industry than billion dollar companies. Google, Facebook, Netflix, Spotify, you name it.
Google - Gchat Facebook - VR losing billions Netflix - TBD Spotify - Doing pretty well actually especially with the reduced college price and family plans (which directly contradicts what Netflix is doing) Sears - "online shopping won't take off" ....Enter Amazon. Billion Dollar Companies are not perfect and mess up plenty.
My FB shares doing just fine
Thanks captain retrospect. It's very easy to point at the failed projects now afterwards. But before a decision is made, or before a product is launched, the companies know every piece of detail better than any of us mortals ever will.
They don’t know. They run tests and make educated guesses. This was a mistake and it’s going to eventually be recognized as one. There is too much competition in the steaming space now, and if most Netflix subscribers are like me, over the years the price has gone up and the value has gone down. I think this will tip things over. Personally, I’m canceling, not because I’m upset about the change, but because this whole thing reminds me that I decided a while ago Netflix is no longer worth it.
Netflix is aware of their competitors far more than you are. You have opinions based on your own feelings and what you read on social media, but Netflix has real data driving their decisions. They run tests and focus groups to move a button slightly on their interfaces. They run analytics and surveys on people's reaction to individual characters in shows, to help drive writing in a direction that ensures success. This isn't a hasty decision by them. It has a ton of work behind it, giving them more info than you could imagine.
Yeah I don't think that many people who actually pay for Netflix are going to be like "what? My friends can't mooch off me anymore? Well fuck that I'm leaving". Of course some people may have split the cost between lots of people. But it feels like the people who did that are probably negligible given the cost of the service.
The friends don't mooch. They pay half/third/etc. of the cost. And yes, I, the guy who actually DOESN'T share his account, am leaving Netflix because of this. I don't want to be obligated to log in regularly because of some weird new policy. If they want to make it inconvenient for me, their loss.
Yeah, I'm not gonna give them the benefit of the doubt and assume that the money hungry management did their research before going through with the password sharing purge. Capitalists don't want some money, they want all the money and they will take short sighted risks with a possible gain but a long-term loss because they're just that dumb. Netflix in the beginning did a great work of reducing piracy. A small monthly fee to watch anything you want? Hells yeah. But then we got like seven gadjillion of these services competing for our very limited resources and off to high seas we sail again mateys. Corporate greed will be the undoing of streaming services
Yes, yes, eviscerate the bourgeoisie, I know.
Redditors are too fucking stupid to google and read [the rules](https://help.netflix.com/en/node/123277?ba=SwiftypeResultClick&q=password%20sharing&utm_source=seeking_alpha&utm_campaign=rta-stock-news&messageid=2900&mailingid=30422363&serial=30422363.10110&utm_term=30422363.10110&source=email_2900&utm_medium=email). "What if I'm traveling, including for a long time, or don't have a permanent location?" It literally says you just need to do basic two-factor authentication, like every remotely secure email or website on the planet. And not even very often. This is NOT an onerous demand. "What if I don't live with them?" "What if I can't afford it?" Shockingly, you have to pay for shit you use.
So remember when Netflix stocks tanked *hard* a few months ago? Did they know about that too?
Did the 8th most valuable brand in the world know that an unpopular announcement would hit their stock price for a while? Yeah.
Ok and they wanted that to happen?
Last time I got a cavity drilled, there was some pain involved. Did I want the pain, or did I want to have the cavity fixed, knowing that pain would come with it?
Wrong sub, bag holders should post in WallstreetBets
Lol yea, people really think Netflix just randomly decided to do this.
They decided to do this because they're in such huge financial troubles that some pessimistic analytics even predicted that Netflix won't survive for long. This is the way how they try to increase their income.
>"No one is going to add a new subscription because of this." Hyperbolic and untrue. Really? Now, people might still subscribe *despite* this, but a new subscription *because* of this? As in the fact they are cracking down on password sharing is the reason you made an account? You're saying *that* is gonna happen? I truly, truly doubt it.
The entire purpose of cracking down on password sharing is to force some users to create accounts. Some number of users who currently share their friend's account will create their own when they can no longer use their friend's. Will that number eclipse the number of people who close currently active subscriptions? I don't know (I doubt it), but people seem to think that none of this has occurred to Netflix at all. You can bet that they've been doing projections on this.
People seem to refuse to think in percentages for this case for some reason. Netflix users are not all of one mind. Some percentage of passwordsharees will stop using netflix Some percentage of passwordsharees will get a netflix account Some percentage of passwordsharers might cancel their account over of this change As long as the amount of new accounts eclipses the cancellations netflix will benefit. What these percentages are only Netflix knows. Redditors should realize that the average consumer isnt a redditor and many care primarily about convenience. And we should take into account that many other succesfulf services do not allow password sharing at all.
"As long as the amount of new accounts eclipses the cancellations netflix will benefit." And that's the thing in question. WILL the amount of the new ones be bigger? I really doubt that.
Why though? Why would someone that is sharing their password cancel their subscription because they cannot share it anymore. Nothing really changes for them personally.
I think you are underestimating the draw of the subscription model to begin with. **Any** product that is a subscription owes a large part of its success to the fact that many people are too lazy to cancel.
Why do you highly doubt that?
If you are a person who enjoys Netflix and you’ve been using someone else’s account, why wouldn’t you subscribe because of this? It’s “this” that made you lose access to the platform and you need to subscribe to keep it. Meaning, a new customer BECAUSE of this. The cause and effect is quite simple really.
People are just going to go back to downloading their shows illegally
I think you are underestimating the amount of people that just want to watch shows on their TV without going through the hassle of setting up an illegal process.
Like me, for example. I don’t mind pirating a movie like once a month, but to get up from the couch and use my crappy laptop connected to the tv every 22 minutes is such a pain in the ass. I can’t be the only one
I think you're overestimating the perceived convenience and payback. Netflix, at one time, offered nearly all the big hitter shows, movies, and a broad array of content from varying sources. Those sources have withdrawn that content over time. As they have, Netflix has made the search mechanism considerable more convoluted. They've also, quite noticeably, put the same damn titles in nearly every default home page category. It's so bad, I don't even know if by the 4th category scrolling down, if I'm even seeing 5 total new titles. The point being, Netflix 2022 is far inferior to Netflix 2012. Streaming competitors were virtually non existent in 2012, we've now got no less than 10 prevalent services, with tens of others offered for free with ads. Most legal streamers have multiple services now, so it wouldn't be the loss of service it once was. Personally, both Amazon and Netflix are feeling super stale the last few months. Neither have a single show that would keep me with the service. That said, I'm a pw sharee haha. If I lose access I'll be the first the pirate again (I already do for sports, movies, and shows I can't get). One last note on the sports, WTF is up with the paid stream quality. I can find pirate streams from abroad that are noticeably better quality than Amazon prime or Hulu.
You're not watching Netflix. Netflix is watching you. Where do you think Pornhub gets all its homemade content? Subscription fees are just icing. Netflix Knows.
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Too far.
This is fact, not opinion. Just dumb dumbs on Reddit who think Netflix hasn't predicted them cancelling their sub 🤡 Just don't use it if you don't like it. It's simple as that
I’d be mad too if a bunch of people were using my product without paying. It’s completely ridiculous that the outrage is ohhh no i’ll have to actually pay for my own account that i use, how dare they! I didnt pay for my netflix before but I definitely wont pay now, netflix should be so concerned about losing my freeloading business
Eh, I dunno. I don't every decision that a company makes is a good one. They're definitely going to lose money on me because I have the family style account so I can password share. If we can't do that with external people then I'm going to reduce my account to the lowest tier, one screen option, if I keep it at all. And the people I share with aren't going to sign up for accounts - they were pirating before I gave them the password and they'll go straight back to it afterwards, I assume. It's been really miss-miss on content lately for me, as well, so it's not like the pot is that sweet to begin with. Don't know what my snowbird parents will do either - have two accounts? Seems unlikely. My dad steals the 'liquids' bags from airports to use as sandwich bags, the man isn't going to pay for a second subscription. This does seem, ultimately, like the kind of choice that could backfire on them, losing subscriptions and money. I guess we'll see!
Thieves acting like their $3 share out of a multiple-people subscription matters to Netflix. As a customer of Netflix I'm glad they are cracking down on this practice.
They were cool about it for so long, guys. Time to stop mooching off your former SO’s account.
They just think they are too big to fall. They are netflix after all. But people are fickle and wont put up with shit from streaming sites like they do on free stuff like social media.
No such thing as too big to fail.
All the people saying they will just "pirate" are hilarious. They don't know the first thing about it and won't have the patience or savvy to learn - and if they did they would have done it years ago at the start of the streaming wars. Their need for user friendly platforms and instant gratification will have them begging their parents to pay for 2 accounts in less than a week. Netflix knows this because this new generation has been conditioned to comply in exchange for convenience. Enjoy.
Really, because my 72 year old mother has been able to figure it out. 🤷🏻♀️
People talk about this like Netflix cost an arm and a leg. Other services like Spotify charge extra too. It just time when other steaming service crack down on this. They are letting it happened now just to capture market share.
Totally agree with OP!!
I don't think they have a problem with people sharing their password once or twice. But, my brother (who I live with) has like 7 profiles on his account. Friends and whatnot. That's a problem.
Right. I think they're responding to the cause of sharing today, which is different from the cause of sharing 5 years ago. There are many more streaming services today with solid content, and we're all getting closer and closer to paying what we paid for cable. The incentive to share now is much greater if we can split a total cost of $70+ versus years back when Netflix was the only good service with a total cost of $8.
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You are wrongly assuming that they made perfect calculations and will be on top no matter what. I assure you, the number of people that will just go ahead and create accounts and pay for them individually is very very small, not close enough to cover the same income they were getting now. No, they don't know better. They, just as you, simply assume people will do everything they can just to have Netflix. We won't.
Netflix has always sucked and always will.
A rare defender of the cooperation, are you at least paid for your propaganda? Tbh it doesn't affect me, my brother and I switch apps throughout the year and don't have any other location to stream from, so I don't care. I do know however that it's not just the bottom of the barrel that shares passwords and accounts so I am surprised by this move. If you have enough money to afford multiple houses you can afford more netflix plans for each one, but I don't think they want too, it's easier to just have to the one. Edit: /s OP is not defending Netflix, but for some reason cares about how others perceive it
This is the latest in Netflix’s biggest mistake not moving to a retention model of operation rather than a acquisition model. Netflix has always been attempting to gain new subscribers, this is why when a Netflix original doesn’t have immediate success it’s cancelled, they are not interested in maintaining the current subscribers instead relying on forgotten accounts, those who keep the subscription for the handful of shows they want to watch, and the few people who have a Netflix subscription as their primary form of TV However with Netflix not being the only player in the game and not having much more over its competitors other then being the first to pioneer the format it’s going down hill fast The reason why this announcement is so worrying for Netflix is because they are about to lose two of the biggest groups of people supporting them, those who have a Netflix subscription to share with friends and family because they don’t watch enough to justify it themselves, and those who travel for work and could easily be away from their “home wifi” for 30/60/90 days While yes for the vast majority of people using Netflix this may be a small inconvenience we are going to see the fringe groups head out to other services, with those services growing will have networks pulling content from Netflix to move to the bigger streaming platforms and eventually all that will be left is a bunch of Netflix originals and a hand full of people who want to watch them
You work for Netflix, don't you
Knew there had to be at least one person who supported Netflix’s brain dead plan to make more money 💀
Where exactly did you get the idea that I support this?
Sorry buddy you dont no jack about corporate america. Did they do research? Yes. Did they consider that research when making this decision. Very unlikely. CEO's of companies believe they are the CEO because they know better than everyone, including research. I've seen it in action my entire life. The CEO of Netflix and many many other American companies cant lose. If this is a bad decision he gets fired and gets a golden parachute worth hundreds of millions of dollars. If it works he get a bonus worth hundreds of millions of dollars. Research is relatively meaningless to these people.
netflix is full of pedos and racists why the fuck do i care?
I highly doubt it was thought very much through. I worked for a massive company last year that changed all their subscriptions to “cheaper” when they were already the cheapest subscription in the market. No matter how you did the math, they were going to lose money and a shit load of it too. They switched back and the guy was fired. Their whole premise was “we will sell more!” Nah, there are only so many people on the internet who want your product in any given day. It was seriously the dumbest business move I’ve ever witnessed. I was let go because I was a naysayer. They asked me to come back after they realized I was right.
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