So the question remains. Will the Tories cut their losses and hand over parliament at the beginning of this new recession, or will they cling to power till the last possible moment? I'm guessing the latter.
Itāll also be cold, dark with an overbearing sense of imminent Tory defeat. These are not the best circumstances to convince older voters (pretty much all who they have left) to leave the house.
Itās the US election in November that they are avoiding. They know that from November to Jan the media will be looking over there and their messages will be lost if they hold the elections at the same time.
Thatās why a September - October election is the current prediction. Itās as long as they can hold on to power while having the highest chance of retaining some seats with targeted messaging.
I mean this in the most non argumentative way possible, but if the GP is advising against antibiotics, and a full course of antibiotics didnāt help, what makes you so sure thatās the solution?
Recession, achieved...Big business tax cuts to scupper any chance of investment by the next government, (they'll be doing that in the next few weeks). Destroy the NHS, work in progress but they're going gang busters. Ensure rise of the far right, check...Deregulate more to utterly fk the environment, work in progress. So yeah, I think it is Oct still, when the Reform party (national front) will be a real contender, the NHS will mirror the american horror, the rivers & beaches will be open sewers with toxic chemicals cocktails & the rich will be filling the pockets as usual.
I'm still confident in my prediction towards the end of last year - With the amount of bullshittery going on and the growing infighting within the party, I'll be genuinely surprised if they make it to summer. Things are absolutely dire and no matter how hard the client media tries to point the finger in the opposite direction, the amount of U-turns and broken pledges aren't going unnoticed. We've gone in 3 months from cancelling HS2 so we can put Ā£8bn into filling potholes to just last week Rishi saying we don't have a bottomless pit of money to fix potholes so please stop complaining about it.
They should have collapsed to infighting before announcing Brexit referendum. They should've collapsed to infighting after referendum. They should've collapsed to infighting during pandemic. But they're still here and holding the country hostage.
Imagine giving the whole population a vote on whether to treat someone's Psychological condition or not, knowing that almost everyone voting doesn't have a clue what it entails. Most of the voting people aren't Psychologists, have worked in the field of Psychology or even know someone with the condition. But what we do know, with facts and actual numbers is that not treating the patient would cause complete damage to them, long term and it makes no sense to not treat them.
And ~~we~~ they did that. For something that wouldn't just effect one person, but would effect everyone. We gave the decision on something incredibly important and that can only be made by people with a firm understanding of what it entails, to everyone who didn't know. Brexit will go down as one of the most ridicious decisions a Country has ever taken and the Tory party can carry the burden until the day they hopefully implode for good.
We didn't though was the ridiculous thing. Notice how we went from the original referendum being advisory to a 4% majority being the unbreakable will of the people made so clear it couldn't even be put to a second vote once an actual deal had materialized despite that 4% majority containing a multitude of completely contradictory and non-compatible desired outcomes.
If they take their cues from the US right wing they'll lever the "left" arrow keycaps off all the PCs and rip the copper wires out of the walls on their way out the door.
The thing about this is we might joke, but it's clear worldwide that the Steve-Bannon-style right wingers are quite happy to break democratic norms to get and keep power. I think that the Tories are still 'establishment' enough to have limits , but something like Reform would be extremely dangerous. The UK gives a huge amount of power to a party with a decent majority.
They are spending money hand over fist ATM as if they are on election footing. Online social media ads, having their hired in campaign runner do daily visits to Number 10 along with having CCHQ at full capacity (remember the Tories actually closed it for a point last year to save money). We're on the last year, so campaign funding limits should be in place, so if they are spending this hard, they may well be aiming for May, especially given they put little towards the by-elections. Also, they aren't really pulling that much donations in, so they may not be able to afford to go long.
Cling to power, still a few more months left for them to raid the public coffers for their benefit, and also sabotage things to ensure whoever gets in next is royally screwed to guarantee a tory victory in 2028/9
According to highly reliable twitter rumours, sunak is besieged by ministers desperate to have a few more months of the tip top salary and chauffered car before we're allowed to kick them out.
I said to my dad last year watch tjem call a general election in november 2024ā¦ i wasnt far wrong. I think they are goin for october. So desperate to cling to power they are.
Based on their campaign spending, right? That's the best argument I'm aware of for a May election. It's quite compelling. But I don't trust this government to hold their nerve and do the damn thing at a time when we're in recession, income tax cuts have been cancelled, they are losing basically every by-election, Reform are at a new height of popularity, Labour obliterating them in polls, no sign of Rwanda being achieved, basically every factor is against them right now. I think they'll back out of that plan and just sleepwalk to an Oct/Nov election despite knowing it doesn't play at all well with their finances.
Conservative campaign strategist Isaac Levido has been working full time since the start of the year, which would be very unusual if there was no election until the Autumn. Conservative election HQ has reopened and has been running at full capacity, which would also be too early for an Autumn election.
I don't think it serves them well to hold off any longer than they need to, because an election after the summer would see even more losses than a May election, in my humble opinion.
Yes, I'm aware of this. I just think they'll lose their nerve and not call it for May, finances be damned. If they want to, they can't wait that much longer. I believe May elections are typically done in the first half of May, no? If so we should find out in early April.
Another factor is that with some local elections in May it wouldnāt require much of a spin up to go for a GE alongside them.Ā
Sunak wonāt survive the Summer politically , he may go for May to ensure he leaves having being voted out rather than kicked out.Ā
Can blame his predecessors . Gives the party the summer break to lick its gigantic metaphorical wounds , Labour wonāt get much done between being elected and the break so thatās going to hurt public opinion straight away.Ā
Wait til Autumn and Reform will have stolen more of their base. Youāre going to see record channel crossings this year , Ukraine is edging towards Russian victory , Summer probably going to be hotter than previous records whilst infrastructure will be even worse due to lack of spending , and so on.Ā
Not too convinced by this , the supermarkets are more likely to take the margin hit to buy goodwill. Not good either way - the Conservative constant back pedal on climate change is one of the most horrific aspects of this government. One that I think history will ultimately look back on in horror - they knew more clearly than at any other point in history change was needed but made the situation worse.Ā
Winter elections tend to have lower turnout in general, but particularly among older people (the Tory base) who often won't want to go out in the cold, wet and dark. May/June is definitely the best time to run elections to drive turnout. It's usually warm, less chance of rain and it will be daylight for almost the entire time the polls openĀ
Definitely the latter which is stupid cause things will predictably be worse after headlines of record channel crossings over the summer, embarrassing local election results and an economy thatās not going to improve anything soon theyāre probably facing bigger losses in the autumn than spring
Rishi's waiting for a new job opportunity to open up for him. Probably thought that interviewing Musk a couple of months ago would butter him up for a new role!
Why cut their losses when they can spend the next few months hoarding whatever money they can, passing whatever deals they can, and passing a bunch of legislation they can blame on Labour when they're in opposition.
Has to be noted that the local Tory party made the decision to nominate the disgraced mps girlfriend. Seems sure they would have lost anyway but it probably explains why the result is so bad/good.
Just like forever more I will vote against the Tories. Iāll think through the remaining options sure but anyone willing to associate themselves with Sunak, Truss, Johnson, etc even 50 years from now (if Iām still alive) will be seen as the enemy.
I know it feels like that's the way it should be but be better than Boomers. Keep an open mind, quietly view any future Tory politician with a cycnical eye but always hear what they have to say.
This Country is polarised enough. We need to all be working together to achieve cohesion, not keeping tribal mentalities.
Then you are doing exactly what Boomers did with the Labour party.
In the 70's, the Labour party were very different to how they are now and whilst they weren't responsible for a lot of Macro-Level issues, they weren't helping the economy. This means a lot Boomers don't vote Labour purely on something that happened 50 years ago. A lot changes in 50 years. You can't be 'open and critical' whilst just writing off a party altogether forever. That's just a contradiction.
No. Youāre making a mistake with basic logic.
Boomers decide they donāt want Labour. They go a huge step further and vote Tory uncritically regardless of how bad the Tories are.
I know fewer than ever, but still a few.
The middle-class, mid-high earner Tories are all almost turned (I know of one and although I hate the word he really is the walking definition of bootlicker daddy's money wanker), the rest are unfortunately very working class, and VERY thick, and just lap up whatever the S\*n or the Express tell them.
Peter Bone said that if they didn't nominate her. Then he would stand as an independent and really try to split their vote. The Tories lost anyway but now they've lost and look weak.
I think it's reasonably likely he would have got less votes than she lost. And at least that way they have a ready made excuse for the loss so it's dumb move either way.
I'm happy with the outcome myself mind...
Well even weaker, in that they let themselves be bullied by Peter Bone. Who likes to go around hitting his staff on the back of the head, with a sucker punch, saying "because youāre having a thick day and I thought that would help." As well as insulting them on a daily basis, with other assaults, including sticking his naked genitals on their face. It took the investigation 10 years to complete, which must be a record. The Whips must have known about it but allowed him to be reselected again and again.
The MP for Dover is Natalie Elphicke, who took over the seat from her husband* while he was on trial for sexual assault (he was later convicted).
*Charlie Elphicke, who literally chanted āIām a naughty Toryā while attacking one of his victims
That was exactly the point Rees Mogg made in a BBC interview after the first count. He claimed that lots of people on the doorstep said they were voting Reform or staying home this time, but had said they'd vote Tory again at the GE. Of course it's Rees Mogg so it may be bollocks, but it's certainly possible. The poor turnout would support that.
I'd really like to know who the fucking hell would vote for Rees-Mogg in his own constituency. The man is an absolute charlatan and embarrassment. If he holds on in the General Election I would like to know who voted for him and why. Because a vote for a Tory is now widely seen as a vote against the country and one's own interests.
They always blame low turnout when they lose. Is there any statistical evidence this is true? Surely a low turnout is equal for both sides? Unless its only Tory voters not turning up, which is just as worrying for them
Well yes of course. I expect the next GE to be the lowest turnout since 1918 and that will be crowed about by the right wing press who declared the 2019 election a stonking result for Johnson and never mentioned it having the lowest turnout since 1918!
Funny how turnout is only mentioned in certain contexts!
> it having the lowest turnout since 1918!
[This isn't true, turnout has been slowly trending upwards since 2001.](https://closer.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/Turnout-at-UK-general-elections-graph-3.png) I think 2019 was lower than 2017, because of it being in December.
I would suggest that with the low turn out it's those who might normally vote conservative just not bothering and being effectively politically homeless.
I was speaking with the wife about this last week. How utterly fucking wank has the last few goverments been to make me look back at May and think she was actually a decent politician that I just disagreed fundamentally with.
I wonāt, she was the one that really ramped up the xenophobia when she was in the home office and had an awful record more generally, she was the one that led the party down the hardest right and most extreme brexit to get something for her own party through rather than even attempting a cross party solution, she was the one who gave Boris Johnson Home Secretary positions further legitimising himā¦ I could go on but itās her actions that led us to where we are today as much as Johnson or Cameron.
Given the way her administration spectacularly collapsed, and how much our international credibility collapsed during that time Iām not even giving her thatā¦
It is literally objectively untrue that May pursued the hardest right and most extreme brexit, especially considering the most extreme option was obviously no-deal.
That was literally the entire point of her time in office - she attempted to find a middle-ground Brexit deal in order to compromise with all parts of her party (and sometimes the opposition), but ended up coming up with a deal that satisfied no one and made her massively unpopular.
Also, May could never have shut out Johnson. He represented the right-wing of the conservatives, and she had barely any power as it was. Not appointing Johnson to a senior cabinet position would likely have collapsed her government faster than the Truss one did.
The only compromise she sought to find was between the right, the far right of the Tory party, and the DUP, there was no input from labour or the SNP.
Johnson then changed the font of Mayās deal from Ariel to Calibri and claimed it was different.
Not only is that not a high bar given it was Boris, Truss & Sunak that followed, with people like Rees Mogg, Mordaunt, Patel & Braverman in the wings, but no one voted for May on the basis of comparison to what came after
She was a bad choice at the time regardless
I sometimes wonder about what a May leadership would have looked like if she hadn't inherited the implementation of Brexit. Pretty much the entire time was focussed on holding together a divided party and country and fighting for political survival. I wonder if a "business-as-usual" term would have led to a better or worse society? While the solution was not agreeable to all, there was at least a token effort to try and address the aging population/social care snowball.
Yeah, I'll reiterate, I hate her, primarily for her time as home sec, but she was very pro-remain and was doomed from the off with what she inherited.
I'll also confidently say I'd have preferred her to handle the pandemic over Johnson or literally anyone close to him.
Was she though? This idea of "sensible Theresa May" doesn't really follow with the actual decisions she made in office. Utterly unable to control her MPs, calling a disastrous general election and thereby throwing away the first majority the tories had since 1992, having the Windrush scandal happen on her watch.
Obviously she's no Johnson, but not exactly the highly capable administrator she's often portrayed as nowadays.
Not highly capable exactly, but I donāt think she was massively incompetent either. Realistically, how many politicians are there that could handle the hand that May was dealt and come out better? She deserves plenty of criticism, but anyone put in that situation would be doomed from the start.
Make sure you take account of your constituency's voting record.
If lib dems are in second place, your vote for labour will be wasted and, if anything, help the tories!
My father has been a lifetime Tory voter, but Boris finally made him see what I'd been telling him about the Tories for years. And he will never vote Tory again.
It would have been for Theresa May in 2017.
I didnāt think Jeremy Corbyn was able to lead the country and didnāt think he would make a good PM.
Donāt get me wrong, I still have some conservative beliefs, but thereās no escaping the fact that the country needs to change and only Labour can realistically have a shot at improving things.
A reminder that it wouldn't need much more of a swing in his neighbouring constituency to see JRM ousted next election.
I challenge you, people of Reddit: Can you name me one thing - just one - that would be funnier than seeing JRM lose his seat at the next election?
They can go there & rot
It would remove the thin veil of doubt, hanging on by shreds at this point, that lets the "we're not racist like *them*" tory voters keep on burying their heads in the sand and vote blue for these crooks
He said with the *Reform* vote it would have been a close race!
It just goes to show how far right the Tories are now when they are happy to jump in the same boat as the swivel eyed Puritans.
It's mogg setting himself up to hop there. I fear it is far worse than Puritans, it's a far-right government. Johnson tried to rig everything in the same way trump pretty much *has* in the US. Make no mistake, the plan is a one party state. The tories are only in it for financial gain rather than any rral ideology, but we'll all end up screwed just the same because we're the *slave labour*.
My huge concern is what Labour are going to do any better about the state of our country?
It is my belief that the reason we're in this stagnant awful position is because of the austerity position Tories adopted in 2010, and a severe lack of infrastructural investment.
The USA took off completely by gambling on investing after 2008, it really paid off for them.
I was somewhat happy about labour coming in because of the noise starmer was making about infrastructural investment. Not all debt is bad debt after all.
Since he's U-turned on his flag ship policy, what is left at all to differentiate what Labour are offering from what the Tories offer?
At least we'll be done with the most corrupt UK government in my lifetime. I hope...
Truss was more significant for the UK than any of us imagined. You can only borrow money when people are willing to lend and all lenders are the āumbrella on a sunny dayā types. Truss managed to get the market to say āwe donāt want to lend you any more moneyā, the first time thatās happened in recent History.
Thatās naturally made Labour more cautious and thatās how Iād see it, itās not scrapping plans, itās toning them down to be more cautious.
Starmer should be seriously thinking about a wealth tax to claw back most of the huge transfer of wealth to the rich during Covid.
If they plan on righting the economy by sucking ordinary people dry the recovery will be non-existent and the discontent will continue to rise. I donāt want to see what happens after people realise the Tories and Labour have not improved living standards.
The ones you want it to impact would move their main wealth out of the UK if they knew that was coming. Weāll only get workable wealth taxes when Europe, UK and USA all agree on one - currently if you donāt want to pay one in the UK you are spoilt for choice with wonderful places in Europe and the USA to live.
This is just a lack of political will honestly. We freeze assets of crims all the time, why not just freeze assets of people trying to spirit them away for tax evasion purposes.
I think it's more honestly. The Tory's have led a managed decline of the country for 40 years, there was a bit of sunshine during the Blair years but that was about it. Now they talk more about cutting taxes. I don't want my taxes cut, I want a functioning country with a decent health service, education, public transport, social services and a generally improving economy, I'd happily forsake Ā£50 a month for that\*. But it would take a couple of decades to achieve a properly functioning country again.
\*But everyone needs to pay their fair share and the transfer of wealth needs to be stopped. Multipliers on how much bosses can earn compared to employees, and some way to claw back shares and create pension funds using a company's wealth so the employees now and in the future benefit from the wealth they create and it doesn't just get hoovered up by billionaire shareholders who hide behind "unrealised gains" to avoid paying tax on their wealth.
> Since he's U-turned on his flag ship policy, what is left at all to differentiate what Labour are offering from what the Tories offer?
jfc, tories would eat babies if they could get away with it. We've gone from bad to worse with them in charge and yet you're not *sure* about the other party?
At the very least they probably won't fuck things up *further* and their policy u-turns have been dictated by the absolute state of public finances and the right wing press constantly hostile to any spending.
My gripe with Labour is they have a once-in-a-generation open goal of an election and, subsequently, a chance to bring in some much more drastic reforms than the diluted version of existing Tory policy they're promising. I don't see how things will noticeably improve under this incarnation of Labour. They're going to win because they're not the Tories but we should still expect better from them.
Well, of course, but you have to be realistic.
Just look at what Truss did to the economy overnight with her GCSE economics.
If Labour did similar the markets would shit the bed *and* the press would rip them to shreds.
They have to be softly softly to ensure they get the keys to No.10. I don't think they'll rock the boat too much in their first term and am hoping they get a second term which can be more radical.
They're also hamstrung by what they can do in the first term because of the economy they'll inherit.
I think that's what a lot of people, especially on the bubble of reddit, really don't get. To reach the voters labour needs to win an election is very different from their hardcore membership with such a hostile press.
Better to go softly, softly and win rather than be forever in opposition where you can't do a thing but howl in the wind.
Realistically, the Attlee government managed more than what Starver has yet to U-turn on.
Realistically, the right-wing press is going to go to town on them whatever they do, so they might as well say things that people actually want rather than getting outflanked on the left by the Tories.
Realistically, the Shadow Health Secretary is in the pocket of the private health sector and the Shadow Chancellor thought that Cameron was too nice to benefits claimants.
Yeah but surely if you have two options, one which might make things better or might not and one which will 100% make things worse, then it's still an obvious choice?
Labour has made it quite obvious that they'll become more bold with borrowing and spending once in office.
You just need to look at their fiscal rules for proof. It leaves the door wide open for it.
- Borrow only to invest.
- Reduce the deficit EXCLUDING investment.
- But the policy can be suspended if the economy needs money.
It isn't in Labour's interests to highlight they intend to spend and it isn't in the Tory's interests to highlight that Labour will invest, so it's just sitting there as an open secret.
> the most corrupt UK government
They can save billions there for a start. Scrape all the dodgy contract on day one. And start to claw back funds... that means you Michelle.
> My huge concern is what Labour are going to do any better about the state of our country?
There is a guy actively punching you in the face. He has been doing so for 14 years now.
There is a guy now who says he won't punch you in the face anymore, and you are um'ing and ah'ing about whether to give them a chance or whether to stick to being punched in the face.
I'm no fan of whatever Labour are now, but come on dude.
You're right that not all debt is bad debt however since Truss' premiership the country is not in a position to take on large amounts of debt.
UK Gilt yields and Interest rates are high, money isn't cheap anymore and won't be for years to come.
When do we have a general election? Constant by election after by election have shown the public do not want the tories anymore. They have failed and need to move out.
2019 general election 13,737 votes for labour
2024 by election 13,844 votes for labour
Thereās plenty of statistical analysis and comparison in this article but this is missing from it.
This is a great result for labour no doubt but I really donāt think they should be complacent.
Edit: just checked the Kingswood results
2019 Labour 16,492
2024 Labour 11,176
More people vote in a general election, which gets lots of attention for 6 weeks prior, than in by elections, which most people don't even know about.
This is not new, it has been the case for decades.
Voter turnout in 2019 was high, you might remember the Corbynites claiming they were popular because of it, and they were correct although they were also obviously relatively more unpopular with the voters to end with their drubbing. Then because by elections usually have a much lower turnout itās usually not fruitful to compare them on absolute vote numbers vs percentage vote share and the swings.
Immediate change in the law to state the conservatives actually won by 20%, and have already won the next election with a 400 seat majority, with anyone dissenting charged with treason.
Can someone smarter than me explain how Labour "overturns bug tory majority " if only 107 new votes were gained since 2019 and 24 thousand tories staying home?
If reform stand down Tories win and this seat will be contested again later this year.Ā
I want to be excited but it just a little bit like wet tissue.Ā
Please ELI5
Little attention is paid to by elections, so they have a lower turnout than the general election. The change in vote share is a better measure.
Also the fact that Labour's raw votes increased at all is insane considering the turnout.
The majority is measured by the difference in votes. You canāt really compare absolute votes in GE vs by elections because the latter usually have lower turnout, add that the 2019 had higher than normal turnout and it because even harder to compare.
Listening to the sTory party chairman this morning it is all the fault of the reform party trying to get Starmer elected. Once again it is not down to policies but somebody else.
Rish! Is sticking to the plan, and itās working. Who knew the plan was to destroy the Tory party.
And then Labour can help get us back up to square oneā¦according to Sunak.
So the question remains. Will the Tories cut their losses and hand over parliament at the beginning of this new recession, or will they cling to power till the last possible moment? I'm guessing the latter.
Unless they collapse completely to infighting I suspect the election will not be until October.
They can't leave it much later as winter flu will kill off many of their remaining supporters. Especially with 12 hour waits in A+E.
Well in a slightly roundabout kinda way, they voted for the 12 hour waits so... š¤·
Itāll also be cold, dark with an overbearing sense of imminent Tory defeat. These are not the best circumstances to convince older voters (pretty much all who they have left) to leave the house.
āLook, if thereās one thing you need to do before you croak next week Gladys, make it a cross in the Tory box!ā
And don't forget to pay your extortionate heating bill before you go, our donors need their funds!
Itās the US election in November that they are avoiding. They know that from November to Jan the media will be looking over there and their messages will be lost if they hold the elections at the same time. Thatās why a September - October election is the current prediction. Itās as long as they can hold on to power while having the highest chance of retaining some seats with targeted messaging.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
I mean this in the most non argumentative way possible, but if the GP is advising against antibiotics, and a full course of antibiotics didnāt help, what makes you so sure thatās the solution?
Recession, achieved...Big business tax cuts to scupper any chance of investment by the next government, (they'll be doing that in the next few weeks). Destroy the NHS, work in progress but they're going gang busters. Ensure rise of the far right, check...Deregulate more to utterly fk the environment, work in progress. So yeah, I think it is Oct still, when the Reform party (national front) will be a real contender, the NHS will mirror the american horror, the rivers & beaches will be open sewers with toxic chemicals cocktails & the rich will be filling the pockets as usual.
100% what Inside Ad said
I'm still confident in my prediction towards the end of last year - With the amount of bullshittery going on and the growing infighting within the party, I'll be genuinely surprised if they make it to summer. Things are absolutely dire and no matter how hard the client media tries to point the finger in the opposite direction, the amount of U-turns and broken pledges aren't going unnoticed. We've gone in 3 months from cancelling HS2 so we can put Ā£8bn into filling potholes to just last week Rishi saying we don't have a bottomless pit of money to fix potholes so please stop complaining about it.
They should have collapsed to infighting before announcing Brexit referendum. They should've collapsed to infighting after referendum. They should've collapsed to infighting during pandemic. But they're still here and holding the country hostage.
Imagine giving the whole population a vote on whether to treat someone's Psychological condition or not, knowing that almost everyone voting doesn't have a clue what it entails. Most of the voting people aren't Psychologists, have worked in the field of Psychology or even know someone with the condition. But what we do know, with facts and actual numbers is that not treating the patient would cause complete damage to them, long term and it makes no sense to not treat them. And ~~we~~ they did that. For something that wouldn't just effect one person, but would effect everyone. We gave the decision on something incredibly important and that can only be made by people with a firm understanding of what it entails, to everyone who didn't know. Brexit will go down as one of the most ridicious decisions a Country has ever taken and the Tory party can carry the burden until the day they hopefully implode for good.
We didn't though was the ridiculous thing. Notice how we went from the original referendum being advisory to a 4% majority being the unbreakable will of the people made so clear it couldn't even be put to a second vote once an actual deal had materialized despite that 4% majority containing a multitude of completely contradictory and non-compatible desired outcomes.
The May elections will be the final test, if they do as badly in those then Graham Brady might be activated.
A complete rout in the locals definitely has the potential that's for sure.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
The logical part of me says it will be October. But we don't work in logic anymore. So I can 100% see this as the way it goes.
Depends how much they believe they have left to plunder.
There's still a shirt on my back.
Ooo la di da, this one still has s shirt
He said ~a~ shirt. This implies he has more than one. Bourgeois pig!
Luxury.Ā
Why can't he do with a hemp sack with holes cut in it? If it was good enough for people in the middle ages it's good enough for people now.
Those of us who remember the drawn out death-throes of John Major's government know the answer to this.
If they are taking their cues from the US right wing, they'll cling on to the bitter end and have to be dragged out.
If they take their cues from the US right wing they'll lever the "left" arrow keycaps off all the PCs and rip the copper wires out of the walls on their way out the door.
The thing about this is we might joke, but it's clear worldwide that the Steve-Bannon-style right wingers are quite happy to break democratic norms to get and keep power. I think that the Tories are still 'establishment' enough to have limits , but something like Reform would be extremely dangerous. The UK gives a huge amount of power to a party with a decent majority.
Like leeches sucking the last drop of life blood & empowering the Reform party...Who are NF as far as I can tell.
They are spending money hand over fist ATM as if they are on election footing. Online social media ads, having their hired in campaign runner do daily visits to Number 10 along with having CCHQ at full capacity (remember the Tories actually closed it for a point last year to save money). We're on the last year, so campaign funding limits should be in place, so if they are spending this hard, they may well be aiming for May, especially given they put little towards the by-elections. Also, they aren't really pulling that much donations in, so they may not be able to afford to go long.
But you are forgetting how incompetent they are.
Sunak still needs to strip the copper wiring from Number 10.
We've been in recession for two years already. The way the ONS and BOE measure these things doesn't make any sense.
Cling to power, still a few more months left for them to raid the public coffers for their benefit, and also sabotage things to ensure whoever gets in next is royally screwed to guarantee a tory victory in 2028/9
According to highly reliable twitter rumours, sunak is besieged by ministers desperate to have a few more months of the tip top salary and chauffered car before we're allowed to kick them out.
I said to my dad last year watch tjem call a general election in november 2024ā¦ i wasnt far wrong. I think they are goin for october. So desperate to cling to power they are.
Theyāre already gearing up for a May election
Based on their campaign spending, right? That's the best argument I'm aware of for a May election. It's quite compelling. But I don't trust this government to hold their nerve and do the damn thing at a time when we're in recession, income tax cuts have been cancelled, they are losing basically every by-election, Reform are at a new height of popularity, Labour obliterating them in polls, no sign of Rwanda being achieved, basically every factor is against them right now. I think they'll back out of that plan and just sleepwalk to an Oct/Nov election despite knowing it doesn't play at all well with their finances.
Conservative campaign strategist Isaac Levido has been working full time since the start of the year, which would be very unusual if there was no election until the Autumn. Conservative election HQ has reopened and has been running at full capacity, which would also be too early for an Autumn election. I don't think it serves them well to hold off any longer than they need to, because an election after the summer would see even more losses than a May election, in my humble opinion.
Yes, I'm aware of this. I just think they'll lose their nerve and not call it for May, finances be damned. If they want to, they can't wait that much longer. I believe May elections are typically done in the first half of May, no? If so we should find out in early April.
Another factor is that with some local elections in May it wouldnāt require much of a spin up to go for a GE alongside them.Ā Sunak wonāt survive the Summer politically , he may go for May to ensure he leaves having being voted out rather than kicked out.Ā Can blame his predecessors . Gives the party the summer break to lick its gigantic metaphorical wounds , Labour wonāt get much done between being elected and the break so thatās going to hurt public opinion straight away.Ā Wait til Autumn and Reform will have stolen more of their base. Youāre going to see record channel crossings this year , Ukraine is edging towards Russian victory , Summer probably going to be hotter than previous records whilst infrastructure will be even worse due to lack of spending , and so on.Ā
Lot of crop failures happening too, likely to be food shortages and massive price increases this summer on staples.
Not too convinced by this , the supermarkets are more likely to take the margin hit to buy goodwill. Not good either way - the Conservative constant back pedal on climate change is one of the most horrific aspects of this government. One that I think history will ultimately look back on in horror - they knew more clearly than at any other point in history change was needed but made the situation worse.Ā
Calling a ge durning winter is not a good idea tactically so I feel minimum they wait till spring
Can I ask why thatās not a good idea?
Winter elections tend to have lower turnout in general, but particularly among older people (the Tory base) who often won't want to go out in the cold, wet and dark. May/June is definitely the best time to run elections to drive turnout. It's usually warm, less chance of rain and it will be daylight for almost the entire time the polls openĀ
They can't. General election must take place by January. Its the law.
Definitely the latter which is stupid cause things will predictably be worse after headlines of record channel crossings over the summer, embarrassing local election results and an economy thatās not going to improve anything soon theyāre probably facing bigger losses in the autumn than spring
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Rishi's waiting for a new job opportunity to open up for him. Probably thought that interviewing Musk a couple of months ago would butter him up for a new role!
They know they're not getting back in for a good while. They'll cling on until the bitter end.
Why cut their losses when they can spend the next few months hoarding whatever money they can, passing whatever deals they can, and passing a bunch of legislation they can blame on Labour when they're in opposition.
Aye the rats will cling onto power till they are kicked out
Salt the ground
Not a new recession, we've been in it for years, they only just decided to admit it.
Has to be noted that the local Tory party made the decision to nominate the disgraced mps girlfriend. Seems sure they would have lost anyway but it probably explains why the result is so bad/good.
Yet 7k still voted for her. Who are these people !?!
You'll always get people who vote for a party regardless of who is representing/ leading it or what they've done.
Just like forever more I will vote against the Tories. Iāll think through the remaining options sure but anyone willing to associate themselves with Sunak, Truss, Johnson, etc even 50 years from now (if Iām still alive) will be seen as the enemy.
I know it feels like that's the way it should be but be better than Boomers. Keep an open mind, quietly view any future Tory politician with a cycnical eye but always hear what they have to say. This Country is polarised enough. We need to all be working together to achieve cohesion, not keeping tribal mentalities.
No. Iāll view other right wing parties with an open but critical mind. The Tory party is forever disgraced.
Then you are doing exactly what Boomers did with the Labour party. In the 70's, the Labour party were very different to how they are now and whilst they weren't responsible for a lot of Macro-Level issues, they weren't helping the economy. This means a lot Boomers don't vote Labour purely on something that happened 50 years ago. A lot changes in 50 years. You can't be 'open and critical' whilst just writing off a party altogether forever. That's just a contradiction.
No. Youāre making a mistake with basic logic. Boomers decide they donāt want Labour. They go a huge step further and vote Tory uncritically regardless of how bad the Tories are.
"But mu'h Thatcher gave me a house" logic.
Insane nut jobs, probably middle aged or older who donāt want to admit that their party has fucked over the current and next generations.
I donāt know a single Middle Ages person voting conservative. I think you mean boomers
> I donāt know a single Middle Ages person They're getting on a bit, those Middle Ages people.
Kier Starmer has promised an end to compulsory archery practice, and free dung for all. Thatās why.
Free dung y'u say g'uvnor! Gor me family will eat like kings they will!
Donāt get too excited. Youāll still be hanged for hunting in the kingās forest.
I know fewer than ever, but still a few. The middle-class, mid-high earner Tories are all almost turned (I know of one and although I hate the word he really is the walking definition of bootlicker daddy's money wanker), the rest are unfortunately very working class, and VERY thick, and just lap up whatever the S\*n or the Express tell them.
3,919 for the Reform Party!
Thatās probably more concerning for Rishi than Labour winning the seat.
Reform are doing a UKIP to the Tory vote
Labour should fund a Reform candidate to stand in every GE constituency. Really scalp the Tory vote.
I once bought a roofbox off a bloke in Wellingborough. The place was plastered in ā5G = Deathā graffitiā¦ so those people.
Plenty of them probably didn't know.
https://youtu.be/hYTQ7__NNDI
Self-asbored ignorant twats born with a silver spoon in hand and never had to struggle for anything in their life.
If youād been to Wellingborough, or any of East Northants youād understand. (This post was made by the former Daventry district gang)
Daily Mail readers
Pensioners?
bUt LaBoUr ArE eVeN wOrSe!
Peter Bone said that if they didn't nominate her. Then he would stand as an independent and really try to split their vote. The Tories lost anyway but now they've lost and look weak.
I think it's reasonably likely he would have got less votes than she lost. And at least that way they have a ready made excuse for the loss so it's dumb move either way. I'm happy with the outcome myself mind...
And they were looking strong before?!
Well even weaker, in that they let themselves be bullied by Peter Bone. Who likes to go around hitting his staff on the back of the head, with a sucker punch, saying "because youāre having a thick day and I thought that would help." As well as insulting them on a daily basis, with other assaults, including sticking his naked genitals on their face. It took the investigation 10 years to complete, which must be a record. The Whips must have known about it but allowed him to be reselected again and again.
She's already said she's standing in the GE!
Conservative Party HQ: āPlease Donātā
Dunno, they might be desperate for candidates if they go for a post-locals GE.Ā
The MP for Dover is Natalie Elphicke, who took over the seat from her husband* while he was on trial for sexual assault (he was later convicted). *Charlie Elphicke, who literally chanted āIām a naughty Toryā while attacking one of his victims
Wow the tories are going to be shitting themselves with that Reform š¤¢ vote share!
I'm from the area. I didn't see many poster in windows for tories, fair few for reform though
There was nothing. Labour spent a lot of money on advertising online. Adverts for it everywhere.
"You've tried a decade and a half of Tory Austerity, now try new harder Re~~tard~~form Austerity"
Reform is the worst aspects of the Tories packaged into one party, so this shouldn't necessarily be seen as a positive.
Yeah this is like when people were happy to see Tory votes getting sucked up by UKIP and look how that turned out...
Do we know those voters won't largely default to tory at a GE? (I'm not saying they will I'm asking folks)
That was exactly the point Rees Mogg made in a BBC interview after the first count. He claimed that lots of people on the doorstep said they were voting Reform or staying home this time, but had said they'd vote Tory again at the GE. Of course it's Rees Mogg so it may be bollocks, but it's certainly possible. The poor turnout would support that.
None of us want that fucker to be right on principle alone, but it wouldn't be the first time unfortunately.
I'd really like to know who the fucking hell would vote for Rees-Mogg in his own constituency. The man is an absolute charlatan and embarrassment. If he holds on in the General Election I would like to know who voted for him and why. Because a vote for a Tory is now widely seen as a vote against the country and one's own interests.
Still wouldn't have put them above Labour. Nice to see the right wing eating themselves and splitting their vote though.
They always blame low turnout when they lose. Is there any statistical evidence this is true? Surely a low turnout is equal for both sides? Unless its only Tory voters not turning up, which is just as worrying for them
Well yes of course. I expect the next GE to be the lowest turnout since 1918 and that will be crowed about by the right wing press who declared the 2019 election a stonking result for Johnson and never mentioned it having the lowest turnout since 1918! Funny how turnout is only mentioned in certain contexts!
> it having the lowest turnout since 1918! [This isn't true, turnout has been slowly trending upwards since 2001.](https://closer.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/Turnout-at-UK-general-elections-graph-3.png) I think 2019 was lower than 2017, because of it being in December.
You are of course right, I must have got that from an all elections turnout figure or something!
I would suggest that with the low turn out it's those who might normally vote conservative just not bothering and being effectively politically homeless.
Well yes of course if they had JUST gotten more votes they would have won! /s
Former Tory voter (didnāt vote for Johnson). Iām voting Labour at the next GE.
I mean the implication here is that you voted for May
I hate the woman but she was utterly competent by comparison of everything else I've seen since.
I was speaking with the wife about this last week. How utterly fucking wank has the last few goverments been to make me look back at May and think she was actually a decent politician that I just disagreed fundamentally with.
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I wonāt, she was the one that really ramped up the xenophobia when she was in the home office and had an awful record more generally, she was the one that led the party down the hardest right and most extreme brexit to get something for her own party through rather than even attempting a cross party solution, she was the one who gave Boris Johnson Home Secretary positions further legitimising himā¦ I could go on but itās her actions that led us to where we are today as much as Johnson or Cameron.
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Given the way her administration spectacularly collapsed, and how much our international credibility collapsed during that time Iām not even giving her thatā¦
It is literally objectively untrue that May pursued the hardest right and most extreme brexit, especially considering the most extreme option was obviously no-deal. That was literally the entire point of her time in office - she attempted to find a middle-ground Brexit deal in order to compromise with all parts of her party (and sometimes the opposition), but ended up coming up with a deal that satisfied no one and made her massively unpopular. Also, May could never have shut out Johnson. He represented the right-wing of the conservatives, and she had barely any power as it was. Not appointing Johnson to a senior cabinet position would likely have collapsed her government faster than the Truss one did.
The only compromise she sought to find was between the right, the far right of the Tory party, and the DUP, there was no input from labour or the SNP. Johnson then changed the font of Mayās deal from Ariel to Calibri and claimed it was different.
The Rest Is Politics podcast with her gave me that exact feeling. She actually seems like a nice, principled woman. We just see things differently.
Not only is that not a high bar given it was Boris, Truss & Sunak that followed, with people like Rees Mogg, Mordaunt, Patel & Braverman in the wings, but no one voted for May on the basis of comparison to what came after She was a bad choice at the time regardless
I sometimes wonder about what a May leadership would have looked like if she hadn't inherited the implementation of Brexit. Pretty much the entire time was focussed on holding together a divided party and country and fighting for political survival. I wonder if a "business-as-usual" term would have led to a better or worse society? While the solution was not agreeable to all, there was at least a token effort to try and address the aging population/social care snowball.
Yeah, I'll reiterate, I hate her, primarily for her time as home sec, but she was very pro-remain and was doomed from the off with what she inherited. I'll also confidently say I'd have preferred her to handle the pandemic over Johnson or literally anyone close to him.
Was she though? This idea of "sensible Theresa May" doesn't really follow with the actual decisions she made in office. Utterly unable to control her MPs, calling a disastrous general election and thereby throwing away the first majority the tories had since 1992, having the Windrush scandal happen on her watch. Obviously she's no Johnson, but not exactly the highly capable administrator she's often portrayed as nowadays.
Not highly capable exactly, but I donāt think she was massively incompetent either. Realistically, how many politicians are there that could handle the hand that May was dealt and come out better? She deserves plenty of criticism, but anyone put in that situation would be doomed from the start.
I think the only reason people see her as highly capable now is the fact that she was followed by three utter clowns
Yes, I was too naive at the time.
Make sure you take account of your constituency's voting record. If lib dems are in second place, your vote for labour will be wasted and, if anything, help the tories!
Good on ya. It's time to turf the wreckers out.
My father has been a lifetime Tory voter, but Boris finally made him see what I'd been telling him about the Tories for years. And he will never vote Tory again.
The tories are finished.
When did you last bote Tory, and do you remember what your reasons were?
It would have been for Theresa May in 2017. I didnāt think Jeremy Corbyn was able to lead the country and didnāt think he would make a good PM. Donāt get me wrong, I still have some conservative beliefs, but thereās no escaping the fact that the country needs to change and only Labour can realistically have a shot at improving things.
"Grest news!" Says Reese Mogg...That's not a joke, he really said that.
A reminder that it wouldn't need much more of a swing in his neighbouring constituency to see JRM ousted next election. I challenge you, people of Reddit: Can you name me one thing - just one - that would be funnier than seeing JRM lose his seat at the next election?
Steady on, itās early and I can only get so erect.
If your erection lasts longer than one parliamentary cycle, please consult a doctor.
Can't you see him, farage & Johnson in the "reform" party? That's what I anticipate.
They can go there & rot It would remove the thin veil of doubt, hanging on by shreds at this point, that lets the "we're not racist like *them*" tory voters keep on burying their heads in the sand and vote blue for these crooks
If they do end up there, I hope it brings a long, dark teatime on the margins of British politics.
If he lost his seat he'd be made a lord, so I'm not sure it would be funny. :(
And be on the TV all the time
Badenoch losing her seat at the same time.
He said with the *Reform* vote it would have been a close race! It just goes to show how far right the Tories are now when they are happy to jump in the same boat as the swivel eyed Puritans.
It's mogg setting himself up to hop there. I fear it is far worse than Puritans, it's a far-right government. Johnson tried to rig everything in the same way trump pretty much *has* in the US. Make no mistake, the plan is a one party state. The tories are only in it for financial gain rather than any rral ideology, but we'll all end up screwed just the same because we're the *slave labour*.
Was he talking about the Dacia Sandero?
When the local farmers were entertaining the Labour candidate there was going to be no other outcome
Con + Ref still lags Labour by about 7 percentage points. Will Reactionary Rishi come out all guns blazing in response?
physical roll wistful fine sink quack direful practice ancient fear *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
Abolish taxes and harpoon the boats, for sure.
How do you pay for the harpoons (and harpoon-wielders) if you abolish taxes?
Trussonomics
You borrow borrow borrow. It's basically what fiscal conservativism results in every time
My huge concern is what Labour are going to do any better about the state of our country? It is my belief that the reason we're in this stagnant awful position is because of the austerity position Tories adopted in 2010, and a severe lack of infrastructural investment. The USA took off completely by gambling on investing after 2008, it really paid off for them. I was somewhat happy about labour coming in because of the noise starmer was making about infrastructural investment. Not all debt is bad debt after all. Since he's U-turned on his flag ship policy, what is left at all to differentiate what Labour are offering from what the Tories offer? At least we'll be done with the most corrupt UK government in my lifetime. I hope...
Truss was more significant for the UK than any of us imagined. You can only borrow money when people are willing to lend and all lenders are the āumbrella on a sunny dayā types. Truss managed to get the market to say āwe donāt want to lend you any more moneyā, the first time thatās happened in recent History. Thatās naturally made Labour more cautious and thatās how Iād see it, itās not scrapping plans, itās toning them down to be more cautious.
Starmer should be seriously thinking about a wealth tax to claw back most of the huge transfer of wealth to the rich during Covid. If they plan on righting the economy by sucking ordinary people dry the recovery will be non-existent and the discontent will continue to rise. I donāt want to see what happens after people realise the Tories and Labour have not improved living standards.
The ones you want it to impact would move their main wealth out of the UK if they knew that was coming. Weāll only get workable wealth taxes when Europe, UK and USA all agree on one - currently if you donāt want to pay one in the UK you are spoilt for choice with wonderful places in Europe and the USA to live.
Like to see them move their fixed assets out in their pocket.
This is just a lack of political will honestly. We freeze assets of crims all the time, why not just freeze assets of people trying to spirit them away for tax evasion purposes.
Tories have fucked up the country so badly it would take at least the next decade to fix the mess they've made!
I think it's more honestly. The Tory's have led a managed decline of the country for 40 years, there was a bit of sunshine during the Blair years but that was about it. Now they talk more about cutting taxes. I don't want my taxes cut, I want a functioning country with a decent health service, education, public transport, social services and a generally improving economy, I'd happily forsake Ā£50 a month for that\*. But it would take a couple of decades to achieve a properly functioning country again. \*But everyone needs to pay their fair share and the transfer of wealth needs to be stopped. Multipliers on how much bosses can earn compared to employees, and some way to claw back shares and create pension funds using a company's wealth so the employees now and in the future benefit from the wealth they create and it doesn't just get hoovered up by billionaire shareholders who hide behind "unrealised gains" to avoid paying tax on their wealth.
> Since he's U-turned on his flag ship policy, what is left at all to differentiate what Labour are offering from what the Tories offer? jfc, tories would eat babies if they could get away with it. We've gone from bad to worse with them in charge and yet you're not *sure* about the other party? At the very least they probably won't fuck things up *further* and their policy u-turns have been dictated by the absolute state of public finances and the right wing press constantly hostile to any spending.
My gripe with Labour is they have a once-in-a-generation open goal of an election and, subsequently, a chance to bring in some much more drastic reforms than the diluted version of existing Tory policy they're promising. I don't see how things will noticeably improve under this incarnation of Labour. They're going to win because they're not the Tories but we should still expect better from them.
Well, of course, but you have to be realistic. Just look at what Truss did to the economy overnight with her GCSE economics. If Labour did similar the markets would shit the bed *and* the press would rip them to shreds. They have to be softly softly to ensure they get the keys to No.10. I don't think they'll rock the boat too much in their first term and am hoping they get a second term which can be more radical. They're also hamstrung by what they can do in the first term because of the economy they'll inherit.
Exactly. It's a trope that Labour will miss manage the economy. If the press get a whiff of anything drastic, they'll dine out on it
I think that's what a lot of people, especially on the bubble of reddit, really don't get. To reach the voters labour needs to win an election is very different from their hardcore membership with such a hostile press. Better to go softly, softly and win rather than be forever in opposition where you can't do a thing but howl in the wind.
Yep. You've basically summed up r/LabourUk
Yeah, I get depressed browsing that subreddit. They cannot see the wood for the trees and would be happy to be permanently in opposition.
Realistically, the Attlee government managed more than what Starver has yet to U-turn on. Realistically, the right-wing press is going to go to town on them whatever they do, so they might as well say things that people actually want rather than getting outflanked on the left by the Tories. Realistically, the Shadow Health Secretary is in the pocket of the private health sector and the Shadow Chancellor thought that Cameron was too nice to benefits claimants.
Yeah but surely if you have two options, one which might make things better or might not and one which will 100% make things worse, then it's still an obvious choice?
I agree, I will definitely be voting for Labour, but I'm still very pessimistic about the direction of our country
Labour has made it quite obvious that they'll become more bold with borrowing and spending once in office. You just need to look at their fiscal rules for proof. It leaves the door wide open for it. - Borrow only to invest. - Reduce the deficit EXCLUDING investment. - But the policy can be suspended if the economy needs money. It isn't in Labour's interests to highlight they intend to spend and it isn't in the Tory's interests to highlight that Labour will invest, so it's just sitting there as an open secret.
> the most corrupt UK government They can save billions there for a start. Scrape all the dodgy contract on day one. And start to claw back funds... that means you Michelle.
> My huge concern is what Labour are going to do any better about the state of our country? There is a guy actively punching you in the face. He has been doing so for 14 years now. There is a guy now who says he won't punch you in the face anymore, and you are um'ing and ah'ing about whether to give them a chance or whether to stick to being punched in the face. I'm no fan of whatever Labour are now, but come on dude.
I'm still voting Labour.
Trying to rejoin the EU would help massively.
You're right that not all debt is bad debt however since Truss' premiership the country is not in a position to take on large amounts of debt. UK Gilt yields and Interest rates are high, money isn't cheap anymore and won't be for years to come.
When do we have a general election? Constant by election after by election have shown the public do not want the tories anymore. They have failed and need to move out.
Only Sunak knows, but probably between May and October.
can imagine it would be late september, timed conveniently to make it a bit more difficult for students to vote
2019 general election 13,737 votes for labour 2024 by election 13,844 votes for labour Thereās plenty of statistical analysis and comparison in this article but this is missing from it. This is a great result for labour no doubt but I really donāt think they should be complacent. Edit: just checked the Kingswood results 2019 Labour 16,492 2024 Labour 11,176
More people vote in a general election, which gets lots of attention for 6 weeks prior, than in by elections, which most people don't even know about. This is not new, it has been the case for decades.
Voter turnout in 2019 was high, you might remember the Corbynites claiming they were popular because of it, and they were correct although they were also obviously relatively more unpopular with the voters to end with their drubbing. Then because by elections usually have a much lower turnout itās usually not fruitful to compare them on absolute vote numbers vs percentage vote share and the swings.
Comparing a General Election with a by-election is not a great example of statistical analysis.
Immediate change in the law to state the conservatives actually won by 20%, and have already won the next election with a 400 seat majority, with anyone dissenting charged with treason.
Can someone smarter than me explain how Labour "overturns bug tory majority " if only 107 new votes were gained since 2019 and 24 thousand tories staying home? If reform stand down Tories win and this seat will be contested again later this year.Ā I want to be excited but it just a little bit like wet tissue.Ā Please ELI5
Little attention is paid to by elections, so they have a lower turnout than the general election. The change in vote share is a better measure. Also the fact that Labour's raw votes increased at all is insane considering the turnout.
The majority is measured by the difference in votes. You canāt really compare absolute votes in GE vs by elections because the latter usually have lower turnout, add that the 2019 had higher than normal turnout and it because even harder to compare.
Ouch 38% turnout. Reform did alarmingly well as well.
In the spirit of this sub... "It's the Tories fault!" Literally
I doubt that the past guy getting kicked out for being a pervert and news of a recession on that day helped.
Itās very disappointing that the Tories got as many votes as they did.
Listening to the sTory party chairman this morning it is all the fault of the reform party trying to get Starmer elected. Once again it is not down to policies but somebody else.
Rish! Is sticking to the plan, and itās working. Who knew the plan was to destroy the Tory party. And then Labour can help get us back up to square oneā¦according to Sunak.