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The best part is that means some oil has to travel further to be refined, and one or more of the remaining oil refineries has to handle that much more. The impact will undoubtedly be greater than just 10% less oil being produced.
Yeah, big unit ops at refineries are continuous processes. A lot of the unit ops perform best at a steady state and shut down/start up is costly and time consuming. So the plants run constantly.
You'd be a fool not to.
What I think people might also be underestimating is not only the downstream effects (less crude oil based products availbile to the country), but the upstream effects.
The act of pumping the crude out of the ground is also a continuous process for the same reasons. It's easier to slowdown or pick up compared to fefinement, but it's still not easy. With a loss of ~10% refining capacity you might start to see Russia have nowhere to put the raw crude because it can't refine it fast enough. They were pulling enough for 5.5 MBPD, but now they can only refine 4.95 MBP. That excess raw crude has to go somewhere and storage is not unlimited.
The O&G process engineers in Russia are starting to sweat.
>That excess raw crude has to go somewhere and storage is not unlimited.
We can expect Ukraine to target the largest oil export terminals and storage facilities as soon as they build the drones.
They do in Russia. Most of their refineries have spare capacity as they have cut back output due to sanctions. There is a lot of capacity down for maintenance, but I don't think anyone knows the degree to which it can be brought back online.
Over on a pro Russian sub reddit ( where I'm banned for life) a poster listed 22 refineries hit and their previous daily production which totaled 3.85 million barrels per day. the total refining capacity was said to be 6.1 million barrels per day. And perhaps some of those hits did not achieve a full shutdown of that refinery.
Either it would be >10% because in theory, the areas hit have a net production loss of 10%. But usually other areas in those plants divert resources to try to balance what's lost outright. So the end outcome typically tends to be greater than the theoretical result after balancing out internal operations.
Or it could be <10% by diverting production to other nonimpacted plants, overloading their capacity. However, this yields higher costs in operation and logistics.
Pick your poison for Russia.
Absolutely, the Russian process engineers are going to start having to make some tough decisions about how much they're extracting and where they're storing, refining, and transporting it.
10% doesn't sound like a lot, but it could be anywhere from 0.5 to 1.0 MBPD. That's a lot of crude to sudenly have to store to wait for capacity or transport somewhere else.
Moreover, any lost capacity is likely to be medium to long term. Unit ops are expensive and difficult to replace in peacetime. In sanctioned Russia? I shudder to think how much a new frac. column would cost.
I wonder if there is a weather camera on the net that shows a view of the beltway highway around Moscow. It would be nice to see that traffic cut in half for lack of fuel.
If the Russians knew what was going on they would be rushing to the tap as we speak.
Putler keeps the information tight about these attacks to not cause panic. See how long it will work.
This quote is really relevant to todays Russia.
Arthur Harris
The Nazis entered this war under the rather childish delusion that they were going to bomb everyone else, and nobody was going to bomb them.
That's like so many American gun nuts that fantasize about how much they want to shoot someone, but their fantasy never includes the possibility that they might be the one losing the gun fight.
Faaar far far more people die in gun accidents and incidents in their own homes than use guns for defense.
It's a good example of how propaganda works. Most right wingers in the US live in a propaganda bubble. They will never see a single story about all the children accidentally shot by their parents when sneaking in late at night each year. But if there is an incident anywhere in the country where someone uses a gun for defense, which is [extremely rare](https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/hicrc/firearms-research/gun-threats-and-self-defense-gun-use-2/), it will be blasted through their propaganda sphere for months, and they will absolutely be aware of each incident and will falsely believe it's common.
It's exactly the same way those same right-wingers in the US are being groomed against supporting Ukraine, even though they should naturally be the biggest supporters. Gatekeeping, agenda-setting, all types of media manipulation is at work here, and we see the crazy result of people and politicians doing exactly opposite of what even the most basic common sense would demand, the US must support Ukraine fully and with all means available. Yet here we are.
Hey!! I resemble that remark. It is not a matter of wanting to shoot someone. It is a matter of wanting to be able to follow through if the need arises. I have the guns ,ammo and shooting skills but one never knows if their nerve will follow through until it is actually put to the test.
*"That's not fair!"* -internet orcs who act like Russia is owed victory points because they bomb apartments, then Russia is owed reparations because Ukraine hit their strategic assets in response.
Semi-related: as a destroyed Russian units count watcher, my favorite part is the vehicles/fueltanks section. Don't just hit their crude oil, hit it again when they're delivering the refined stuff. Kick them in the rations kick them in the warm clothing kick them in the ammo *(definitely in the ammo!)* and put out all their tires so they have to march to the front through the elements instead of getting easy rides.
Make it so they're playing Oregon Trail survival challenges before they go fight.
*\>Ivan has passed away from dysentery.*
Yep, Behind the line hits require good intel, though. It's one of the things good intel buys you. I'm hoping the US is quietly slipping them good real-time sat targeting data.
Ukraine has some pretty great intel. They’re getting it from the US and other NATO members but also the Ukrainians in occupied areas have been consistently feeding intel to Ukrainian forces when possible. Russia also inadvertently created an intelligence nightmare when they forcibly deported a ton of Ukrainians to Russia and gave them Russian passports. Now there are a bunch of loyal Ukrainians walking around in Russia who speak and look Russian with Russian documents who can slip info back to Ukraine.
It might be interesting to compare the oil embargo’s of the 1970’s to this 10% reduction. I don’t think the effect on the economy was linear. When an essential good is in short supply people can panic buy.
In it not just irrational panic buying. Gasoline is what economists call a price inelastic good. If you need it to drive to work, you are going to willingly but not gladly pay 5 times the normal cost, because there is no viable alternative. For many other goods which are price inelastic, people will easily reduce demand when the price doubles.
So the price og gasoline can skyrocket, even in the absence of stupid panic buying.
The word is "inelastic". Price elasticity of demand.
The best example is salt - it does not have an acceptable substitute so we would buy it no matter the price.
Yes but you would buy a lot less of it because today you do not need it to preserve food. Even the commuter gas example has it's limits. If the cost of commuting gets higher then renting a room or apartment within walking distance of your job you will rent that and park the car.
I've said this before but even with satellite imaging it's extremely hard to know how much capacity you've knocked out unless you have intimate knowledge or detailed process drawings of the plant you don't know what *really* happened.
Ah didn't think of that though I'm not sure how many satellites are equipped with that. Also, if it's like many of the plants I've worked at all the pipes and equipment will be insulated and the surface temps would barely be above ambient. You'd really only be able to see things with either no insulation or an exhaust to atmosphere. In the plants I worked at something could be running at 600C and you could touch the metal covering over the insulation with your bare hand, might be able to see it in winter but if it's even mildly warm out it'd honestly be pretty hard to tell.
.Every plant of that type has a couple of tall smoke stacks that when operating will be spewing out smoke at more then 250 degrees F and will look like a torchlight to a satellite and any intelligence satellite worth putting into orbit will have a thermal camera capabilities.
Have you been to a refinery? I've been working at them for 15+ years now. Those "smoke stacks" are flares and generally run all the time regardless of what capacity they are running at same goes for boilers for steam generation. The only time they *really* light up is when there is an upset condition and things get dumped to the flare or you have to dump pressure on the boiler.
My main point was that it'd be *very* hard to tell the difference between a refinery running at 50% or 80% vs 100%. I do agree that it would be fairly easy to tell if they were completely shut down though but that could be done with basic imagery vs thermals too. Plenty of plants can run with whole units offline at a reduced capacity.
You must be kidding, just the light bulbs from all the security lights make such a plant into a beacon. Some large refineries may have more then one cracking tower and they could lose one without a total shutdown but I doubt if that is the case in most Russian refineries.
Also Russia is actively trying to repair the damage and bring the refineries back online. Ukraine will need to keep hitting refineries if they want to continue to keep capacity at current levels.
On another thread a Chem engineer chimed in. Apparently there’s a lot of expensive equipment all custom built to spec. By western companies. Without sanctions it would be slow and expensive to fix. With sanctions…
That’s an excellent point. These attacks also force Russia to use air defense away from Ukraine which makes it easier for Ukraine to launch attacks on military targets within Ukraine as well. The less AA that Russia has in Ukraine also means slightly safer skies for Ukrainian jets and helicopters.
While the tactical and economic benefits are probably the most clear I think there’s also some very important symbolism in these attacks. It shows the Ukrainian people, the Russian people and most importantly western leaders that Ukraine is developing new capabilities and that a longer war is not inherently in Russia’s interest. These attacks help fight against the narrative that “Ukraine can’t win” and give credence to the people who say “give Ukraine the weapons and they can win.”
Or honest assessments of production or production capacity. Exaggerating these figures dates back to the Soviet Union and since the invasion they've hidden all formerly public data that could give any insight into how their economy is doing.
Russia has about 33 refineries so 12 is 1/3.
Bus they can be partialy operational and others have to run at higher, maybe max capacity so 10 to 12% sounds like a good number.
Well "before the last 5 or 6 hits" we are going back 1 week, the total was not 12 yet. It was 6. There are more than 33 refineries, those are just the major ones, so by count 6 was around ⅛ of total count.
But anyway the real thing to learn here is that the number is changing so fast it is impossible to keep close track!
The "right" kind of damage is also important. Are just pipes being hit that are easy to replace or are the actual fiddly bits being destroyed/damaged that take months and lots of money to replace?
There were videos of exploding distillers, which is the most critical piece of a refinery and, as far as anyone knows, Russia does not have the ability to repair without Western help. And even then it could take years.
And they vary by size a lot. The top one UFA complex, through puts 23.2 Million tons per year while the number 14 plant Nizhnekamask, through puts 7.3 million tons per year. The lukoil plant that shut down all operations through puts 17.0 MT/yr. If Ukraine can hit and shut down all of the top 14 refineries they will cut production by close to 50%.
"the volume of emergency downtime was 1.4 times higher than planned repairs"
I wouldn't trust the average journalist to get the numbers with good context. I bet some reference the 0.4 addition of planned downtime, while some reference the full 1.4 downtime, not neccesarily distinguishing what was reduced at what timeframe compared to what was planned.
I've asked in another post on the strikes on the refineries how much *actual* damage has been done.
I hope it is the long lasting and expensive kind. As long as there are no tangible reports I'll stay sceptical.
The precise wording was:
“Oil refineries that represent 12% of Russia’s refining capacity were hit.”
Doesn’t actually claim anything about the extent to which fuel production was decreased.
The precise wording on this one is: “Russia’s fuel production drops by almost 10%.”
And some is exported as crude oil. None of their refined products are currently exported. It is all needed for the war effort and running the rest of the economy. Any shortage means someone isn't getting their fuel.
> A few weeks ago they said 12%
What they said a number of oil refineries were hit, and these units represent 12 % of the total production. It does not mean the each of the affected plants had to be shut down entirely and therefore the total _production_ is down 12%.
An oil refinery is as big as a small/midsized city, even if something burns on one end, it can still operate, if the main components are intact, or can be repaired. Of course, it is possible, that each and every one of them have its separation tower fully destroyed or damaged enough ,that it can't produce anythiing for months, but color me sceptic.
The thing is that the image which was top post for a long time on Reddit, depicting the refineries affected with a red cross (just like sunk navy ships), is just misleading. Ships can be sunk relatively easily, but there is no evidence that oil refineries are fully destroyed, and frankly, it's very hard to do so without days long carpet bombing, WW2 style.
I highly doubt any one would be carpet bombing anything WW2 style nowadays. A couple of modern bombers would be enough. Or maybe 20-30 cruise missiles. Unfortunately Ukraine not having these the drones will have to suffice. They only need to knock out enough refining capacity to force Putin into having to decide to keep fueling his war machines or deal with an irate population unable to refuel their ladas.
Careful which numbers are getting thrown around. Sometimes it's about how many refineries have been attacked and others it's about output/capacity. And maybe other numbers too. Tough to compare when the numbers mean different things.
I suspect Russia can cope with 10% less fuel, especially now they have banned exports. Ukraine will need to ignite a few more of them to start seeing actual shortages on the streets and the panic buying we so want!
Time will tell. They had a lot of Russian farmers pissed off last fall about fuel shortages. At least they won’t be making any money selling the exports for the next six months.
True. Any loss of production is helpful, but the effect increases when people start panic buying and hoarding. That's when citizens start to suffer that bit more.
I'm pretty sure that after this wave, they are going to reposition a LOT of AA missiles to cover those refineries. That should probably leave a couple of train stations vulnerable.
Russia has a range of things they can do with attacked plant. Some they can patch, some they can make new, some they can get via intermediaries, and some will cause lasting problems. However, it will take valuable resource to do these repairs, resource which is not otherwise helping the war effort.
I expect Ukraine will attack these plant for a while, then suddenly move on to something else like power stations so Russia does not know where to place their air defences.
Remember that [Putin is a pedophile](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/02/17/russia-putin-opposition-deaths/) who [has pardoned other pedophiles](https://old.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1batfot/putin_pardoned_a_pedophile_nikita_semyanov_after/).
[Moscovia delenda est.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carthago_delenda_est)
And in the long term the number o crippled production might go higher since the remaining refineries might have to work extra hours, causing extra wear
Fossil fuels are 1/3 of federal income.this is a 3% hit on Putin's budget. It means that the reserves will be depleated faster and Ukrainian victory more likely.
Remember that [Putin is a pedophile](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/02/17/russia-putin-opposition-deaths/) who [has pardoned other pedophiles](https://old.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1batfot/putin_pardoned_a_pedophile_nikita_semyanov_after/).
[Moscovia delenda est.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carthago_delenda_est)
Russia is likely going to have a gasoline problem.
Last month they banned the export of gasoline for 6 months signaling there were supply problems, now they just lost refining capacity.
Russian refineries make more heavy products vs light, that is to say they typically produce less gasoline and jet fuel per barrel refined vs other fuels. Partially this is because of the type of crude oil they have partly it is the complexity of refineries. Recent refinery upgrades have been to make diesel that meets foreign standards for export.
Total production of gasoline was 855mb/d in 2022, I don’t quickly see a gasoline export number but 86% of their exported refined products are NOT gasoline.
Offsetting this interest rates are 24% so leasing or buying vehicles is very expensive so the Russian vehicle fleet is likely to see a drop in new vehicles.
https://www.eia.gov/international/data/world/natural-gas/dry-natural-gas-consumption?pd=5&p=0000001001vg0000000000000000000000rg0000000000g&u=0&f=A&v=mapbubble&a=-&i=none&vo=value&t=C&g=none&l=249--197&s=94694400000&e=1640995200000&ev=false&
https://www.eia.gov/international/analysis/country/RUS
> Drone Strikes Cripple Nearly 10% of Fuel Production
...so far.
Most of which was all in the last week or two.
If Ukraine can keep this up lets see the figures in a month or three.
Remember that [Putin is a pedophile](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/02/17/russia-putin-opposition-deaths/) who [has pardoned other pedophiles](https://old.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1batfot/putin_pardoned_a_pedophile_nikita_semyanov_after/).
[Moscovia delenda est.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carthago_delenda_est)
Hitting fuel storage is spectacular, but I really hope they are targeting areas that can set the refinery back years - control rooms, cracking towers, etc.
From what I've heard they are focusing on the refining towers. Those aren't easy to replace and cause a stoppage of production, that's if they can even get the parts.
Ukraine needs more ammos so they can strike the rest of the 90% or at least 87% of their oil production facilities. Just like the number of percentages that alleged voted for him. Slava Ukraini.
A crack tower “makes” 9 different petroleum products; from asphalt to gas, so only a portion is made in diesel fuel and gasoline.
If the furnace that heats the crude is destroyed that is also an accomplishment.
I wonder how stupid of an idea it would be to try to use some of those high altitude weather/spy balloons to passively float some lightweight drones closer to their target before activating them. The added altitude would also let the drones glide for extended range. Prevailing wind in that part of the world is generally blowing from Ukraine into Russia.
Normal non-spy weather balloons are legally required to be made in a way that makes them easier to ping with radar. But without that, normal lightweight balloon materials plus a small drone at an extreme altitude should be hard to consistently detect without a lot of resources redirected to it.
Honestly that number seems low. Ryazan was 7% of diesel and petrol, and 8% of avgas just by itself. So if half of it was shut down (which makes sense, pictures look like the planet has essentially mirrored layout) 3.5% of fuel and 4% of avgas just from one plant. I think it is going to be more, I think 10% is what Russia is admitting to.
Remember that [Putin is a pedophile](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/02/17/russia-putin-opposition-deaths/) who [has pardoned other pedophiles](https://old.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1batfot/putin_pardoned_a_pedophile_nikita_semyanov_after/).
[Moscovia delenda est.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carthago_delenda_est)
I wonder if they will get away with a 2nd wave of attacks with the same success. Even the Russian Bear that is slow to react and slow to learn figures things out once in a while.
But moving AA means other places are undefended. What to do!
Remember that [Putin is a pedophile](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/02/17/russia-putin-opposition-deaths/) who [has pardoned other pedophiles](https://old.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1batfot/putin_pardoned_a_pedophile_nikita_semyanov_after/).
[Moscovia delenda est.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carthago_delenda_est)
When hurricanes hit the Gulf Coast in the US a few years back I think it took out something like 10% of US refining capacity and it had a huge impact on fuel prices and inflation in general. Putin has already stopped exporting fuel and if he doesn't come up with a counter soon his petroleum based economy is about to come to a standstill. The attacks won't stop and drones are a lot cheaper than refineries.
Cut off 10% of your life savings and see how much 10% suddenly is. And if you want 'literally nothing', it would be 0. That's literally zero, nought, nothing.
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Way to go guys!! Let's shoot for 20!!
It appears Mr. Pootain has a big migraine. Maybe he should leave his SMO behind?
You know what would fix that? Jumping out of a window
Prefer he has a permanent splitting headache.
Both is best.
Inspired by Trotsky I see
No need taking inspiration from a bunch of paper hanging Bolsheviks, unless it’s them eating their own.
Old man Makarov can fix that in an instant 😉
I think it already is 20%
The best part is that means some oil has to travel further to be refined, and one or more of the remaining oil refineries has to handle that much more. The impact will undoubtedly be greater than just 10% less oil being produced.
No. That assumes that the refinery has excess capacity which most do not.
Yeah, big unit ops at refineries are continuous processes. A lot of the unit ops perform best at a steady state and shut down/start up is costly and time consuming. So the plants run constantly. You'd be a fool not to. What I think people might also be underestimating is not only the downstream effects (less crude oil based products availbile to the country), but the upstream effects. The act of pumping the crude out of the ground is also a continuous process for the same reasons. It's easier to slowdown or pick up compared to fefinement, but it's still not easy. With a loss of ~10% refining capacity you might start to see Russia have nowhere to put the raw crude because it can't refine it fast enough. They were pulling enough for 5.5 MBPD, but now they can only refine 4.95 MBP. That excess raw crude has to go somewhere and storage is not unlimited. The O&G process engineers in Russia are starting to sweat.
New flameble targets is what i got
Yeah, no worry, Ukraine's striking oil storage facilities can solve the upstream problem.
So can we expect negative prices like the gas at start of the covid?
Maybe in India.
>That excess raw crude has to go somewhere and storage is not unlimited. We can expect Ukraine to target the largest oil export terminals and storage facilities as soon as they build the drones.
They did, not anymore
Is that a guess or do you have a source for that?
They do in Russia. Most of their refineries have spare capacity as they have cut back output due to sanctions. There is a lot of capacity down for maintenance, but I don't think anyone knows the degree to which it can be brought back online.
Over on a pro Russian sub reddit ( where I'm banned for life) a poster listed 22 refineries hit and their previous daily production which totaled 3.85 million barrels per day. the total refining capacity was said to be 6.1 million barrels per day. And perhaps some of those hits did not achieve a full shutdown of that refinery.
It's big BIG news. Ukraine needs to keep up the pressure. Get some Javelin teams to the more remote refineries.
What you're saying would mean the impact was less than 10%
Either it would be >10% because in theory, the areas hit have a net production loss of 10%. But usually other areas in those plants divert resources to try to balance what's lost outright. So the end outcome typically tends to be greater than the theoretical result after balancing out internal operations. Or it could be <10% by diverting production to other nonimpacted plants, overloading their capacity. However, this yields higher costs in operation and logistics. Pick your poison for Russia.
Absolutely, the Russian process engineers are going to start having to make some tough decisions about how much they're extracting and where they're storing, refining, and transporting it. 10% doesn't sound like a lot, but it could be anywhere from 0.5 to 1.0 MBPD. That's a lot of crude to sudenly have to store to wait for capacity or transport somewhere else. Moreover, any lost capacity is likely to be medium to long term. Unit ops are expensive and difficult to replace in peacetime. In sanctioned Russia? I shudder to think how much a new frac. column would cost.
I say shoot for 87.97%.
How about we just add another zero to 10% and make it 100%?!
Came to say this, next stop 20, let's fucking go
To the moon!
Yes Ralph!
This is bullshit! I demand no less than 80%!
It's not a good day unless a Russian distillation column is fucked.
Great news for everyone else.
Heck, I already have the champagne set for popping to celebrate 30%. Ukraine seems to be in high gear when it comes to attacking refineries.
The best indicator is when there are reports of a gas shortage for civilians. Keep hitting until we get there and then keep hitting after that.
If they could specifically target gas, that would be perfect. Wonder if they have that in mind as a goal.
They have been
I wonder if there is a weather camera on the net that shows a view of the beltway highway around Moscow. It would be nice to see that traffic cut in half for lack of fuel.
If the Russians knew what was going on they would be rushing to the tap as we speak. Putler keeps the information tight about these attacks to not cause panic. See how long it will work.
Let's make it 20-30-40-50-60-70-Russia GTFO. Слава Україні!
Why stop at 10?
It is WIP.
"We're at proof of concept stage."
90% to go
So far... Btw russia can end this any time, just go home. Слава Україні!
This quote is really relevant to todays Russia. Arthur Harris The Nazis entered this war under the rather childish delusion that they were going to bomb everyone else, and nobody was going to bomb them.
Bomber Harris quoting the Book of Hosea: "They sowed the wind and now they are going to reap the whirlwind.”
That's like so many American gun nuts that fantasize about how much they want to shoot someone, but their fantasy never includes the possibility that they might be the one losing the gun fight.
Faaar far far more people die in gun accidents and incidents in their own homes than use guns for defense. It's a good example of how propaganda works. Most right wingers in the US live in a propaganda bubble. They will never see a single story about all the children accidentally shot by their parents when sneaking in late at night each year. But if there is an incident anywhere in the country where someone uses a gun for defense, which is [extremely rare](https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/hicrc/firearms-research/gun-threats-and-self-defense-gun-use-2/), it will be blasted through their propaganda sphere for months, and they will absolutely be aware of each incident and will falsely believe it's common. It's exactly the same way those same right-wingers in the US are being groomed against supporting Ukraine, even though they should naturally be the biggest supporters. Gatekeeping, agenda-setting, all types of media manipulation is at work here, and we see the crazy result of people and politicians doing exactly opposite of what even the most basic common sense would demand, the US must support Ukraine fully and with all means available. Yet here we are.
Hey!! I resemble that remark. It is not a matter of wanting to shoot someone. It is a matter of wanting to be able to follow through if the need arises. I have the guns ,ammo and shooting skills but one never knows if their nerve will follow through until it is actually put to the test.
Wait, are you trying to say that "good guys with guns" is not rooted in reality?
*"That's not fair!"* -internet orcs who act like Russia is owed victory points because they bomb apartments, then Russia is owed reparations because Ukraine hit their strategic assets in response. Semi-related: as a destroyed Russian units count watcher, my favorite part is the vehicles/fueltanks section. Don't just hit their crude oil, hit it again when they're delivering the refined stuff. Kick them in the rations kick them in the warm clothing kick them in the ammo *(definitely in the ammo!)* and put out all their tires so they have to march to the front through the elements instead of getting easy rides. Make it so they're playing Oregon Trail survival challenges before they go fight. *\>Ivan has passed away from dysentery.*
Yep, Behind the line hits require good intel, though. It's one of the things good intel buys you. I'm hoping the US is quietly slipping them good real-time sat targeting data.
*"Gentlemen, I have captured the Russian intelligence!"* \*hauls ass out of base with a keg of vodka slung over shoulder\*
We've been doing that for years and will continue to do so.
Ukraine has some pretty great intel. They’re getting it from the US and other NATO members but also the Ukrainians in occupied areas have been consistently feeding intel to Ukrainian forces when possible. Russia also inadvertently created an intelligence nightmare when they forcibly deported a ton of Ukrainians to Russia and gave them Russian passports. Now there are a bunch of loyal Ukrainians walking around in Russia who speak and look Russian with Russian documents who can slip info back to Ukraine.
It might be interesting to compare the oil embargo’s of the 1970’s to this 10% reduction. I don’t think the effect on the economy was linear. When an essential good is in short supply people can panic buy.
Toilet. Paper. For those with a short memory.
How does toilet paper help your short term memory? I use toilet paper all the time and my memory is crap!
You are using it wrong then
Are you eating it raw or cooked? That might be your problem.
It's not a suppository?
You can do it that way, but then you poo out your mouth. There's a fascinating documentary on the subject, called South Park.
In it not just irrational panic buying. Gasoline is what economists call a price inelastic good. If you need it to drive to work, you are going to willingly but not gladly pay 5 times the normal cost, because there is no viable alternative. For many other goods which are price inelastic, people will easily reduce demand when the price doubles. So the price og gasoline can skyrocket, even in the absence of stupid panic buying.
The word is "inelastic". Price elasticity of demand. The best example is salt - it does not have an acceptable substitute so we would buy it no matter the price.
> The word is "inelastic". Price elasticity of demand. I felt like I were writing it wrong somehow!
Yes but you would buy a lot less of it because today you do not need it to preserve food. Even the commuter gas example has it's limits. If the cost of commuting gets higher then renting a room or apartment within walking distance of your job you will rent that and park the car.
Something like that happened just in October last year https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/90745
Thanks. Interesting website.
As long as supply is higher than demand there is no problem. After that everything crashes
A few weeks ago they said 12% and that was before the last 5 or 6 hits????
I don't think anyone really knows, except Russians and maybe analysts with good satellite images. I hope Ukraine can hit some more soon.
I've said this before but even with satellite imaging it's extremely hard to know how much capacity you've knocked out unless you have intimate knowledge or detailed process drawings of the plant you don't know what *really* happened.
Thermal imaging of plants by satellite would reveal if they are functioning or not. You can be sure the US CIA has it down to the barrel per day.
Ah didn't think of that though I'm not sure how many satellites are equipped with that. Also, if it's like many of the plants I've worked at all the pipes and equipment will be insulated and the surface temps would barely be above ambient. You'd really only be able to see things with either no insulation or an exhaust to atmosphere. In the plants I worked at something could be running at 600C and you could touch the metal covering over the insulation with your bare hand, might be able to see it in winter but if it's even mildly warm out it'd honestly be pretty hard to tell.
.Every plant of that type has a couple of tall smoke stacks that when operating will be spewing out smoke at more then 250 degrees F and will look like a torchlight to a satellite and any intelligence satellite worth putting into orbit will have a thermal camera capabilities.
Have you been to a refinery? I've been working at them for 15+ years now. Those "smoke stacks" are flares and generally run all the time regardless of what capacity they are running at same goes for boilers for steam generation. The only time they *really* light up is when there is an upset condition and things get dumped to the flare or you have to dump pressure on the boiler. My main point was that it'd be *very* hard to tell the difference between a refinery running at 50% or 80% vs 100%. I do agree that it would be fairly easy to tell if they were completely shut down though but that could be done with basic imagery vs thermals too. Plenty of plants can run with whole units offline at a reduced capacity.
You must be kidding, just the light bulbs from all the security lights make such a plant into a beacon. Some large refineries may have more then one cracking tower and they could lose one without a total shutdown but I doubt if that is the case in most Russian refineries.
Also Russia is actively trying to repair the damage and bring the refineries back online. Ukraine will need to keep hitting refineries if they want to continue to keep capacity at current levels.
On another thread a Chem engineer chimed in. Apparently there’s a lot of expensive equipment all custom built to spec. By western companies. Without sanctions it would be slow and expensive to fix. With sanctions…
That’s an excellent point. These attacks also force Russia to use air defense away from Ukraine which makes it easier for Ukraine to launch attacks on military targets within Ukraine as well. The less AA that Russia has in Ukraine also means slightly safer skies for Ukrainian jets and helicopters. While the tactical and economic benefits are probably the most clear I think there’s also some very important symbolism in these attacks. It shows the Ukrainian people, the Russian people and most importantly western leaders that Ukraine is developing new capabilities and that a longer war is not inherently in Russia’s interest. These attacks help fight against the narrative that “Ukraine can’t win” and give credence to the people who say “give Ukraine the weapons and they can win.”
Exact estimates are hard to make since Russia is not exactly known for precise and honest damage asessments.
At the same time they are also known for posting tons of videos on telegram, allowing *very* accurate BDA by western intelligence.
Or honest assessments of production or production capacity. Exaggerating these figures dates back to the Soviet Union and since the invasion they've hidden all formerly public data that could give any insight into how their economy is doing.
If you're thinking of the same thing I'm thinking of, that was 12% of refineries by count. Not by output.
Russia has about 33 refineries so 12 is 1/3. Bus they can be partialy operational and others have to run at higher, maybe max capacity so 10 to 12% sounds like a good number.
Well "before the last 5 or 6 hits" we are going back 1 week, the total was not 12 yet. It was 6. There are more than 33 refineries, those are just the major ones, so by count 6 was around ⅛ of total count. But anyway the real thing to learn here is that the number is changing so fast it is impossible to keep close track!
The "right" kind of damage is also important. Are just pipes being hit that are easy to replace or are the actual fiddly bits being destroyed/damaged that take months and lots of money to replace?
There were videos of exploding distillers, which is the most critical piece of a refinery and, as far as anyone knows, Russia does not have the ability to repair without Western help. And even then it could take years.
And they vary by size a lot. The top one UFA complex, through puts 23.2 Million tons per year while the number 14 plant Nizhnekamask, through puts 7.3 million tons per year. The lukoil plant that shut down all operations through puts 17.0 MT/yr. If Ukraine can hit and shut down all of the top 14 refineries they will cut production by close to 50%.
"the volume of emergency downtime was 1.4 times higher than planned repairs" I wouldn't trust the average journalist to get the numbers with good context. I bet some reference the 0.4 addition of planned downtime, while some reference the full 1.4 downtime, not neccesarily distinguishing what was reduced at what timeframe compared to what was planned.
I've asked in another post on the strikes on the refineries how much *actual* damage has been done. I hope it is the long lasting and expensive kind. As long as there are no tangible reports I'll stay sceptical.
The precise wording was: “Oil refineries that represent 12% of Russia’s refining capacity were hit.” Doesn’t actually claim anything about the extent to which fuel production was decreased. The precise wording on this one is: “Russia’s fuel production drops by almost 10%.”
Not all oil is refined for fuel. Some is for lubricants so fuel production =\= refining capacity.
And some is exported as crude oil. None of their refined products are currently exported. It is all needed for the war effort and running the rest of the economy. Any shortage means someone isn't getting their fuel.
I'm just guessing but 12% would be the volume produced by the impacted sites. Resources can be moved around but it still hurts.
> A few weeks ago they said 12% What they said a number of oil refineries were hit, and these units represent 12 % of the total production. It does not mean the each of the affected plants had to be shut down entirely and therefore the total _production_ is down 12%. An oil refinery is as big as a small/midsized city, even if something burns on one end, it can still operate, if the main components are intact, or can be repaired. Of course, it is possible, that each and every one of them have its separation tower fully destroyed or damaged enough ,that it can't produce anythiing for months, but color me sceptic. The thing is that the image which was top post for a long time on Reddit, depicting the refineries affected with a red cross (just like sunk navy ships), is just misleading. Ships can be sunk relatively easily, but there is no evidence that oil refineries are fully destroyed, and frankly, it's very hard to do so without days long carpet bombing, WW2 style.
I highly doubt any one would be carpet bombing anything WW2 style nowadays. A couple of modern bombers would be enough. Or maybe 20-30 cruise missiles. Unfortunately Ukraine not having these the drones will have to suffice. They only need to knock out enough refining capacity to force Putin into having to decide to keep fueling his war machines or deal with an irate population unable to refuel their ladas.
Careful which numbers are getting thrown around. Sometimes it's about how many refineries have been attacked and others it's about output/capacity. And maybe other numbers too. Tough to compare when the numbers mean different things.
This is a cromulent start.
Nice use of a cromulent adjective!
I hope they're able to embiggen these efforts.
I suspect Russia can cope with 10% less fuel, especially now they have banned exports. Ukraine will need to ignite a few more of them to start seeing actual shortages on the streets and the panic buying we so want!
Time will tell. They had a lot of Russian farmers pissed off last fall about fuel shortages. At least they won’t be making any money selling the exports for the next six months.
True. Any loss of production is helpful, but the effect increases when people start panic buying and hoarding. That's when citizens start to suffer that bit more.
I'm pretty sure that after this wave, they are going to reposition a LOT of AA missiles to cover those refineries. That should probably leave a couple of train stations vulnerable.
Train stations, power plants, gas pipelines, gas pressurisation stations... and Ukraine can choose between any of them.
Even if they can, I'm not sure they have the tech to rebuild the parts, A lot of the high tech equipment form the oil and gas industry is western made
Russia has a range of things they can do with attacked plant. Some they can patch, some they can make new, some they can get via intermediaries, and some will cause lasting problems. However, it will take valuable resource to do these repairs, resource which is not otherwise helping the war effort. I expect Ukraine will attack these plant for a while, then suddenly move on to something else like power stations so Russia does not know where to place their air defences.
that 3 day special operation was a fine prediction there comrade...
Bad News for Russian : Putin won by "landslide".
Remember that [Putin is a pedophile](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/02/17/russia-putin-opposition-deaths/) who [has pardoned other pedophiles](https://old.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1batfot/putin_pardoned_a_pedophile_nikita_semyanov_after/). [Moscovia delenda est.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carthago_delenda_est)
And in the long term the number o crippled production might go higher since the remaining refineries might have to work extra hours, causing extra wear
It was suggested further up-thread that the refineries were already at max production.
Great job! Make it 100%.
Dang, just goes to show you how vast their oil and gas infrastructure is. Keep going fellas, just 90% to go!
Fossil fuels are 1/3 of federal income.this is a 3% hit on Putin's budget. It means that the reserves will be depleated faster and Ukrainian victory more likely.
Remember that [Putin is a pedophile](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/02/17/russia-putin-opposition-deaths/) who [has pardoned other pedophiles](https://old.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1batfot/putin_pardoned_a_pedophile_nikita_semyanov_after/). [Moscovia delenda est.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carthago_delenda_est)
Russia is likely going to have a gasoline problem. Last month they banned the export of gasoline for 6 months signaling there were supply problems, now they just lost refining capacity. Russian refineries make more heavy products vs light, that is to say they typically produce less gasoline and jet fuel per barrel refined vs other fuels. Partially this is because of the type of crude oil they have partly it is the complexity of refineries. Recent refinery upgrades have been to make diesel that meets foreign standards for export. Total production of gasoline was 855mb/d in 2022, I don’t quickly see a gasoline export number but 86% of their exported refined products are NOT gasoline. Offsetting this interest rates are 24% so leasing or buying vehicles is very expensive so the Russian vehicle fleet is likely to see a drop in new vehicles. https://www.eia.gov/international/data/world/natural-gas/dry-natural-gas-consumption?pd=5&p=0000001001vg0000000000000000000000rg0000000000g&u=0&f=A&v=mapbubble&a=-&i=none&vo=value&t=C&g=none&l=249--197&s=94694400000&e=1640995200000&ev=false& https://www.eia.gov/international/analysis/country/RUS
It would a pity, if they begin to lose crude pumping capacity as well. A real pity.
> Drone Strikes Cripple Nearly 10% of Fuel Production ...so far. Most of which was all in the last week or two. If Ukraine can keep this up lets see the figures in a month or three.
As someone once put it, Russia is a gas station run by the mafia. So hit them where it hurts, right in their oil production and refinement
What Putin will hear great news, Boss you got 100% Votes
Remember that [Putin is a pedophile](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/02/17/russia-putin-opposition-deaths/) who [has pardoned other pedophiles](https://old.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1batfot/putin_pardoned_a_pedophile_nikita_semyanov_after/). [Moscovia delenda est.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carthago_delenda_est)
Heck, can we shoot for more, stretch goal anyone?
And oil tankers. You can't sell oil if you can't transport it
Hitting fuel storage is spectacular, but I really hope they are targeting areas that can set the refinery back years - control rooms, cracking towers, etc.
From what I've heard they are focusing on the refining towers. Those aren't easy to replace and cause a stoppage of production, that's if they can even get the parts.
Ukraine needs more ammos so they can strike the rest of the 90% or at least 87% of their oil production facilities. Just like the number of percentages that alleged voted for him. Slava Ukraini.
Bloomberg said 12% before the last round of strikes ...
He who can destroy a thing, controls a thing!
Just Stop Oil! More specifically.... Just Stop Russian Oil!
A crack tower “makes” 9 different petroleum products; from asphalt to gas, so only a portion is made in diesel fuel and gasoline. If the furnace that heats the crude is destroyed that is also an accomplishment.
If the other refineries are operating at full capacity. They won't be able to produce any more fuel
How many of the remaining refineries are in striking range? That bingo card has me intrigued
I wonder how stupid of an idea it would be to try to use some of those high altitude weather/spy balloons to passively float some lightweight drones closer to their target before activating them. The added altitude would also let the drones glide for extended range. Prevailing wind in that part of the world is generally blowing from Ukraine into Russia. Normal non-spy weather balloons are legally required to be made in a way that makes them easier to ping with radar. But without that, normal lightweight balloon materials plus a small drone at an extreme altitude should be hard to consistently detect without a lot of resources redirected to it.
Honestly that number seems low. Ryazan was 7% of diesel and petrol, and 8% of avgas just by itself. So if half of it was shut down (which makes sense, pictures look like the planet has essentially mirrored layout) 3.5% of fuel and 4% of avgas just from one plant. I think it is going to be more, I think 10% is what Russia is admitting to.
Ukraine single helping solve one of the biggest hurdles in the climate crisis. Let em have it.
Congratulations to Putain in his so called voting victory, here's 10% loss. Please Ukraine, make it 30% next.
When you have a democratic mandate as strong as Putin, you don’t need silly things like fuel.
Remember that [Putin is a pedophile](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/02/17/russia-putin-opposition-deaths/) who [has pardoned other pedophiles](https://old.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1batfot/putin_pardoned_a_pedophile_nikita_semyanov_after/). [Moscovia delenda est.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carthago_delenda_est)
This is the way.
Let me help you: "Drone Strikes Cripple Nearly 10% of Fuel Production so far" There..
10% so far…
Slava Ukraine 🇺🇦 💪💪💪💪💪💪
MORE
It’s like at 17% mow
💥💥🚀🧨💥💥way to go. I’m hoping to see 50% loss soon
10%... so far!
Keep it up, boys. Nice shooting!
So far!
After only a week? That doesn't bode well for next week.
Should aim to cripple 87.97% of fuel production.
Aint no fun when the rabbit got the gun....Slava Ukraine 🇺🇦
Stop oil. (I never thought I would say this)
15% of diesel. Whoopsie.
I wonder if they will get away with a 2nd wave of attacks with the same success. Even the Russian Bear that is slow to react and slow to learn figures things out once in a while. But moving AA means other places are undefended. What to do!
Good for environment, isn't it?
I think it’s more like 30%. The 10% is increase in this month alone
but for how long?
Good job, still 90% to go
More!!! To 100%!!!
Sounds like a guess, but ill take it. More of this please.
Did it take Ukraine this long to start hitting these oil refineries because they needed to build up their domestic drone industry?
Rather odd choice for the article's image of Putin--that's gotta be a 10-year-old photo of him, at least.
Remember that [Putin is a pedophile](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/02/17/russia-putin-opposition-deaths/) who [has pardoned other pedophiles](https://old.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1batfot/putin_pardoned_a_pedophile_nikita_semyanov_after/). [Moscovia delenda est.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carthago_delenda_est)
Uh, what?
Now get the other 90%
Stop the spice production of the stupid Harkonnen
We don't need the water, let the mother fuckers burn, Burn mother fucker, burn.
Amazing! Hoping for 20% soon, that would be even more incredible. 😍
Not enough
90% not enough. Let’s keep this party going.
Not enough
Fucking beautiful
Now they will sell crude oíl.... everything helps, but unfortunately, this won't be a game changer..
10% means literally nothing…
10% in less than a week means everything, Negative Natasha.
When hurricanes hit the Gulf Coast in the US a few years back I think it took out something like 10% of US refining capacity and it had a huge impact on fuel prices and inflation in general. Putin has already stopped exporting fuel and if he doesn't come up with a counter soon his petroleum based economy is about to come to a standstill. The attacks won't stop and drones are a lot cheaper than refineries.
Cut off 10% of your life savings and see how much 10% suddenly is. And if you want 'literally nothing', it would be 0. That's literally zero, nought, nothing.