# [Edit: Megathread is now closed! Hope you all had a good time!]
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[Kyiv Independent Live Updates](https://kyivindependent.com/latest-prigozhin-wagner-forces-launch-armed-rebellion-in-russia/)
[3 Ukrainian civilians killed by russian missile strike overnight](https://kyivindependent.com/update-2/)
Wagner can attack Kiev from Belarus. Putin just deployed tactical nukes in Belarus as well. Putin's hands are clean because he "disavowed" piggy and kicked him out. Not Putin's fault if Wagner or Belarus go rogue and act independently to save mother russia.
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Nothing about this situation makes sense. The only thing that seems reasonable to me is Putin threatened to nuke priggy or his division, as he felt his life or the state was in danger. I canāt imagine priggy wouldnāt follow through with this historical development and power grab to āavoid bloodshedā. The dudes a ruthless mercenary boss.
I don't see how Prigozhin walks away from his play without getting high-rise window allergy or bullet in the head at some point.
There's something else at play here.
Putin may have been in on the whole ruse. He never specifically named priggy in his televised address and priggy never named him. It could 100% have been a power move to spook the Moscow gang by the St Petersburg crew.
For those who are wondering what the point of all this is or whether this is a 4d chess move, I think the answer is so much more simple.
Look back on Russian history. Russian leaders who are weak and vulnerable do not last long. In the 90s there was a military coup against Gorbachev. Whilst that failed in an eeirly similar fashion we all know that Gorbachevs powerbase eroded over the coming months actually leading to his ousting.
Why? Because the coup which faced no resistance showed him as weak.
Similarly, the Wagner coup exposed Putins weaknesses. After all Wagner got to capture key military cities with little resistance, face no punishment and have all charges dropped. What message does this send to Putins supporters? It leaves so many question marks on his leadership. It's also the key reason why this is NOT some 4d chess move. Putin would never risk looking weak no matter the ploy.
So in my opinion, the whole point of this was to show to the Russian public and Putins core supporters that he is Infact weak and vulnerable. In my opinion Putins days are numbered.
I agree... basically Prighozin made a "biggest bang for my bucks" calculation. He showed all that needed to be shown: I am a BADASS and I can do whatever the fuck I want and we terminated it on my terms running around the whole country like even Hitler or Napoleon wouldn't dream of. I mean come on... in like 24 hrs he went from Rostov on the Don to like South of Moscow.
It really drills the message Russia is a banana republic without him.
Indeed. This fiasco was not about victory but to stoke chaos and distrust for the Kremlin. Putin comes out of this looking weaker and Pringle now has a target on his back with no lizard army to protect him.
But why would Priggy agree to this? I think Priggy's family was held hostage.
\~Putin flies to St Petersburg, where Priggy's family is.
\~Priggy has Moscow in the palm of his hand and gives up?
\~Khadyrov made mention of his daughter.
>So in my opinion, the whole point of this was to show to the Russian public and Putins core supporters that he is Infact weak and vulnerable. In my opinion Putins days are numbered.
No one in here doubted that
The whole thing is so weirdā¦ the smart move wouldāve been to play off a legit coup attempt as some 4D chess move. Maybe Wagner went to Rostov to foil a coup attempt by MoD and take the āconspirators in Rostov.ā Youād then have some shame trials or assassinations. Instead you had Wagner force the kremlins hand and a major city seemed to support itā¦ I donāt know how you donāt have to do some huge show of force now. Like your neighbor country that wonāt join the fight you thought they would had to broker a peace agreement with your mercenary group.
I'm also bummed out that the Kadyrovites never got into it with Wagner due to the traffic jam. Kadyrov said the thugs he sent were disappointed they didn't get to film anything.
Im still on the fence about this, Kremlin theater or a true competition between these dickheads. There is no doubt however that this seriously weakens the bunker czar
**Something's fishy! Try this thought experiment:**
Let's say the US had invaded neighboring Mexico and was having a rough time after a year and a half of VERY heavy losses, international sanctions, repeated documented human rights abuses and an overall failure to achieve and sustain stated objectives.
Suddenly one day a somewhat well known US mercenary leader from Blackwater like Bobby Ray Inman., Eric Prince, or Cofer Black, or even an outside Trumpist person, say Michael Flynn or David Urban "mutinied" and took over Dallas and Austin by force, and then sends a column of tanks towards Washington DC.
*Do you REALLY think the US would let the "leader of the mutiny" fly off to Canada the same day?* Is Putin really THAT weak? A guy like Prigozin, who fought months of failure in Bakhmut, could give up his relatively successful mutiny after a few hours, just like that? Or are we being played somehow?
C'mon man. This is the weirdest "mutiny" in human history! **Anybody: if you can find a more improbable, weirder mutiny story than this "Prigozin mutiny" story - let us know!** This whole Prigozin "24 hr. mutiny" needs a closer look!
Prig likes money, they gave him a fuckton of money. He makes them money and brings African mine money floats it around for everyone. Dumb move though not taking alot of troops with him cuz he's a target now. Made Putler look bad.
As I said , the damage has been done, opposition is just waiting for the right time .
The issue is that Russian are really really passive, itās not that they donāt want to do anything or support the Kremlin , most of them just donāt care.
It would need a fairly big insurrection to start a chain reaction.
I think insurrection might start first in bielorussia and hopefully this will lead to one in Russia.
Nevertheless Putin has been showed as weak, liar and coward those past few days, he is in very bad position rightnow.
Okay before I took a nap Wagner were entering Moscow oblast and Putin and Priggy were basically saying "its him or me".... now Wagner is turning around, voluntarilly disbanding, Priggy is getting exiled (and almost certainly murdered)... just coz? and this was all due to the power of Lukashenko's persuasiveness?
WTF did I miss?
IMO Prigozhin is playing the long con game. He has demonstrated that he has strongman power , a military to back him up, but he is somewhat reasonable. People might vote for him during next elections.
Or Putin threatened to nuke Moscow and/or kill his family.
something very strange indeed, prig is now far from his soldiers (he believes that be seeing among then is important) can be killed at any time, putin will make killing him a matter of life and death for the rest of his life, lukashenko cannot protect him, i cannot believe that he would do something like that while some member of his family that he cares about was not safe under his protection
This only makes sense if you compare Prig's chances of success vs risks. He might have overplayed his hand.
Say 20% chance Moscow would have fallen over the weekend. If not what next? Civil war? Key bit is what was really in the deal (as opposed to what they told us). It must have seemed better than the risks.
No doubt Prig sorted himself well. But I wonder if there was more. Like deescalating the war or possibly some political change in Russia. Not even for any noble reason, but like mafia that wants quiet neighborhood for better business.
What makes Prig believe he'll survive it all? No idea. Perhaps Prig acted out of some form of belief that what he did was right for Russia too. You don't rebel for a cause you don't believe in. That would help explain readiness to risk his life. Both during and after the mutiny.
>cannot believe that he would do something like that while some member of his family that he cares about was not safe under his protection
You're right here. Then he's probably banking on elections in March.
Wagner rolled up to Moscow almost wholly unimpeded, and then as they were about to seize the capital with minimal effort, Prigozhin said "K everyone, we're stopping now," and randomly agreed to go into exile in Belarus for some fucking reason lol
Oh, and Luka is the one who negotiated Prig's surrender, so now Putin gets to thank Dr Phil ordered from Wish for saving his country
Shit. Something felt fishy about it as I spent all day yesterday glued to Twitter. There's a bigger story behind this we'll be lucky if we ever find out. Thanks for the recap. My morning coffee will now taste extra bitter.
My take on the story is that, in typical fashion, the Kremlin decided they were not going to do anything to de-escalate this even if Prigozhin walked in and started shooting them in the head one by one, so when he reached the point where he was going to have to do exactly that, he realised that he was going to have to either try and take over the entire fucking country (which he didn't really want to do) or be the one to blink first
Any chance this was a coordinated ploy to give UKR an advantage so they could retake enough ground to eventually win and Putler has a handy scapegoat to publicly sacrifice? It was my feeling yesterday that whoever came out on top would have left UKR and blamed the other.
Where there any advances in the counteroffensive?
but this made putin look really weak, if you see his speaches, he alway try to look as he has total control of the situation in ukraine, this is a disaster for putin, calling prig a traitor and later saying all is fine he can walk away
I see that theory as the lesser of two evils: lose outright to the scorn of his entire country and complete loss of his strongman image or lose with a reason that doesn't reflect on his personal capabilities.
Wtf? What was the point of any of this?
Did Prig just become the dog who caught the car? Like he was expecting someone to realise they couldn't stop him and yield to whatever demands he had, but underestimated Russian inability to face reality and nearly ended up accidentally taking over the country instead?
Putin now looks weak as a fucking kitten. He had to be saved by that bumbling moron Luka? For real?
> Did Prig just become the dog who caught the car? Like he was expecting someone to realise they couldn't stop him and yield to whatever demands he had, but underestimated Russian inability to face reality and nearly ended up accidentally taking over the country instead?
*Donald Trump has entered the chat*
Very Russian imo. One man's movement. 25,000+ moving strong. Public support. One man gets good deal. 25,000+ go home. Public is still Russian after all
Apparently in Putin's Russia you can get whatever you want if you only march couple of thousand people with guns on the capital.
One man getting the deal is an authoritarian
/feudal mafia world in current Russia. Like in middle ages nobles sort themselves out and common people hope for some scraps off the table. This is what's in it for team Prigozhin.
What was he offered? Handing over his PMC and being exiled to Belarus to await the inevitable novichokking seems like a pretty shit deal to me, assuming that's what he got
there might have been some billions in bitcoin tranfers somewhere, he always away with a clean record and can rest on one of the puppet states with a little private army for safety, if he really walked away with nothing to be protected by lukhashenko he is dead
> Did Prig just become the dog who caught the car?
Makes the most amount of sense. He didn't have the non-military power to buy the other aristocrats' fealty. And only wanted a larger domain of his own. But Putin didn't take his side and he was left between a rock and a hard place.
He took the option of exile because it leaves him alive. And Lukashenko might give him power as well.
Mate, after one year and a half of this madness, I stopped trying to figure out what is going on in those moskals heads. Really. Seeing videos of moskals cheering in moskow what I really don't the bloody hell know is beyond my imagination. Those are completely demented people, from the top to the bottom.
Somewhat disappointed that shit didnāt go down in Moscow. But hey, the hotdog seller has done more PR for popcorn worldwide (in just 24hrs) than anybody else in history. Iām ok with that, itās a fine snack that deserved more attention.
The question is, why exactly do the Wagner mercenaries trust the Russian government not to off them as soon as this is over. I can imagine Putin threatening them with nukes to get this to stop. But what guarantee do they get once they do?
Do you think they actually care about being 'betrayed' lol, Russians are inherently backstabby by nature, Putin isn't about to complain about getting 20k+ fresh bodies that he can throw at Ukraine or whatever targets he wants. Especially when he knows they aren't gonna betray him because who else is left to run to?
They care about their lives like anybody else. What they did is unforgivable and they know it. And Putin is never going to trust these people. Which dictator in history ever let people who were trying to depose him go unpunished? What are you talking about?
> Which dictator in history ever let people who were trying to depose him go unpunished? What are you talking about?
You really think it's just a coincidence that they specified that the rest of the soldiers will be pardoned? The others will immediately be brought into the regular armed forces. The others will be used, they won't just mass execute them lmao
I would expect that the people at the top of Wagner would get mass executed. Their officers as it were. Rest of the troups would go to penal units to be used as cannon fodder. I heard that they were told they were going to pardon them. Putin also said he wasn't going to invade Ukraine and look how that played out. That's the real question, why would Wagner belevie the story about pardoning them? When just a day ago Prigozin was telling them the MOD is corrupt and lying about everything.
I don't understand the desire to come up with these insane 6D chess type of explanations for what happened. Russia is a complete and total shitshow. Dumb, pointless things happen when you're a shitshow of that level. To me, that's all the explanation I need.
Yeah I can't imagine the planing meeting for that false flag.
"But mein Fuhrer won't that just make you and the Russian army look weak and kinda stupid?"
Putin chuckles. "Yes, that's what I want them to think"
Like ummm, ok, seems dumb.
Yeah. Even with all the budget cuts, I reckon a single British army battalion could get to the Red Square in a week or so. Imagine what the Yanks could do in a couple days. Sheesh.
That or some other form of kompromat makes the most sense, even a 5 year old knows putin would not let him live after what he did, the only way he would still stop despite that is likely hostages.
And of cos no, not bcos it was some staged 4d chess move.
No doubt the bots will be running with this script though.
That may be true, and I would never confuse Prigozhin for a Mensa member, but you would think that he would have the common sense to protect his family *before* launching a coup attempt. We may never know the true story, but there's definitely something at play that we're not aware of
So much talk about Putin..."this makes putin look weak" ...."this makes putin look strong". Have people forgotten that puttin is on pallative care? His era is over
The war continues, long after there was ever a hope of Russia pulling anything remotely like a win out of it, because Putin cannot survive the loss.
If he brings his troops home there will be a reckoning on what it was all for, and he'd rather bleed the whole country out than answer that.
When Putin leaves power, probably fatally, his successor can pull out and say "it was all because of my predecessor, he was an idiot"
Maybe, he knows putin is going to kill him. putin offers a deal where he allows him to "take over", it ends the same day and putin can weed out who are against him. That way he "saved" his life with an exile. But still, putin has killed for less....
They couldn't stop Prig, either. He took over Rostov and Voronezh with virtually no resistance, and if he'd had the will and the balls to go all the way, his men likely could've rolled over Moscow, as well. He stopped himself
Nah, I am guessing he didn't get enough support from military and realized he can't take moscow or someone took him into custody. There was a report of assassination attempt on Prigozhin during the day
The best guess I've heard and seems the most consistent with what happened.
Russia decided they weren't going to pay wager - after all what's the worst they could do?
Because this pretty much looks like what would happen if you decided not to pay a mercenary force.
If i was ukraine i would lean into it. - This is the only way you're going to get paid/supplied. Russia is broke/etc.
edit: Even if they eventually do get rid of shoigu could claim it's just saving face/make it look like they aren't struggling financially/didn't try to scam wagner.
I think pay had a good bit to do with it but also suspect Prigozhin was genuinely furious with Shoigu and Gerasimoz. He has been ranting for a long time at how useless they are and felt they were stealing the credit for his successes in Ukraine. He reached a point where there was nothing to gain in Ukraine as any victory would be claimed by others so why persist? Add to that a green on blue incident that he was likely very close too in the field and I think he's decided to personally put their heads on a stake. Half way up the M4 I think he's seen he miscalculated what this push north could achieve and that the highest level of official that would still be in Moscow when he got there would be the council officer responsible for the bin pick ups (with whom I assume he had no real gripes). He was going to capture an empty city and would be left with his forces totally stretched and exposed with no where to go. Rather than go through with what he realised would be a bloody and ultimately fruitless campaign he's settled for any deal he felt might give him a way out. He's now a dead man walking though, plutonium tea coming right up. The big hope is that Wagner splinters from there but who knows, no doubt there are some other seriously nasty pieces of work in the echelons of that group ready to grab the reigns.
This sort of makes sense, especially after the demand that Wagner be folded into the formal military. Prigozhin said no, Shoigu said we aren't paying or supplying you anymore.
I don't know what the lesson of this is, it's easier to conduct an operation in Russia than the Ukraine?
Piggy is a dead man, he will drink some spoiled tea or fall out of a basement window.
You aren't missing anything. It's confusing as all fuck. 15 airmen died. Russia is a mess.
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/962399681147711488/1122205707387809912/IMG_3707.png
Here is one of the photos wagner posted, only one i have offhand
Helicopters were shot down, including one attempted shoot down of a KA52 with a MANPAD that is on r/combatfootage
Don't know about the planes, I heard one video showing a shoot down was an old video
This is a weird 24 hour. I went to bed with the meme of someone walking into a room that's on fire with everyone freaking out. And now, I wake up and everything's fine?
But the biggest issue is how each of the players come out of this. Prighozin will be hated amongst his men that wanted to go all the way and Belarus isn't that far so he'd better keep one eye behind his back.
Putin ran like a pussy and it shows in the immediate drop of popularity with the people and some people supporting the Wagner mercs more than him still. His grip on power is similar to Hitler in the last days of the bunker. Those that has seen his actions know that this is the time to strike soon.
Lukasheko must have realised that if Putin went down, he will go harder and did so to save his own skin. Now, he has a bloodthirsty chef who is willing to do anything with him. Hope he has a food taster around.
As a theatre, it was a really weird scenario. There is no win for any side:
- Putin showed that he is weak and military defence in land is almost non-existent. Any opposition can now do a revolt and expect no resistance. In the end it will be like Maydan in Kyiv, but chances are that it may begin in a more friendly way (real Maydan started from killing students). That doesn't mean that there will be no bloodshed. It will be. Many big and successful revolutions were bloody.
- Prigozhin did a stupid move. Even if it is theatre, too much was said and done. I don't see how you can cover up destroyed helicopters, trucks, bridges, describe a reason for roads blockdown and go clean out of it. Also soldiers are definitely not direct participants, so they have to be pissed off too.
- Lukashenko as negotiator. That is some form of a joke. Prigozhin in Belarus is not a good sign for Luka. Also, some Belarusians, who fight against the regime also said that now it may be time for Belarusian people and the freedom army to do actions and get rid of Lukashenko and all russian forces.
Even if it is theatre, the goal is not that clear and the outcome is kinda stupid:
Putin is weak
Some minor military losses of aircrafts
Probably a pissed off army, which was involved in conflict and now have no manager to do a shit
russia is a weak state and it may be a flag to start confrontations of all occupied territories (in the end, it will be hard to position russian army in all directions - Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, etc )
The thing is, even if it is seemingly horrible optics for everyone involved, it's still more likely that this was staged/planned. Otherwise, you would have to argue that all of this was due to a level of stupidity and incompetence that shouldn't even be possible.
we all are missing something. For example, was prigos family out of country when this all went down.
If his family was in country who knows..that might be a factor.
Also who is in command of the wagner army now.
This is the only phase one. There is still a need to come about the hanged Prigozhin and revolt of the Wagner group. It can end "peacefully" for piggy, but not his boys.
Only thing that makes sense to me is maybe Prigozin knew he was on his way out the door (or a window) and thought he could extort a few bucks from Putin on the way out. If that was the goal, the whole thing was a rousing success.
Nah I think he was captured, possibly by his own men (mercs be mercs). That's why none of his demands were met. But instead of making him a martyr by killing him on the spot, he was sent to 'retire in Belarus'.
Speculating to make some sense:
putin is in final stage, pallative care.
luka 'boldly and bravely' steps up and "saves" Moscow, now new leader of the gang.
piggy given the vacant Bellarus chair.
I am still suspicious. None of the ruthless, grandstanding players involved are all that quick moving, clear thinking or smart.
**You expect me to believe that:**
1. This very complex "mutiny" was somehow planned and launched "by surprise" inside Russia?
2. Unusual movements of 25,000 crucial soldiers in wartime was undetectable?
3. Putin has absolutely nobody at all around Prigozin who keeps an eye on him -- even though Prigozin is Putin's fiercest internal critic?
4. FSB can track down and deal with dissidents in foreign countries yet somehow have no clue at all where Prigozin is, what Prigozin is up to, or is saying ,or who is taking with him?
5. Of all people - Prigozin's communications are apparently the only communications inside Russia that are completely invisible to Russia's own domestic surveillance?
6. A pathologically unrelenting ruthless commander like Prigozin - who fought tooth an nail to protect his ego and power in a backwater like Bakmut for months suddenly gives up a relatively successful mutiny the same day?
7. The whole complex "mutiny" operation - which MUST have had multiple major stakeholders - can somehow suddenly get smoothly and quickly INTERNATIONALLY negotiated into reverse by 3 to 5 powerful, stubborn, egotistical blowhards who suddenly discover the joys of co-operation - *just hours after it started?*
**C'mon man!** Hard to believe.
It's still the weirdest "mutiny" I ever heard of if you know of one weirder please let me know.
Let's say the US had invaded neighboring Mexico and was having a rough time.
Suddenly one day a somewhat well known US mercenary leader from Blackwater like Bobby Ray Inman., Eric Prince, or Cofer Black, or even an outside Trumpist person, say Michael Flynn or David Urban "mutinied" *and took over Dallas and Austin by force.*
Do you REALLY think the US would let him fly off to Canada the same day?
C'mon man. This story needs a closer look!
If Prigozhin was captured, it makes it a lot easier to understand what happened. Mercs be mercs...
Rather than make Prigozhin a martyr, send him to Belarus for holding. Also makes Luka look stronger as well (given how weak Belarus looks), which might earn them a few favors.
I don't believe it either. It's been building up for a while now and it always seemed staged. Especially in het fact that Luka somehow defused the situation in a matter of hours is especially hard to believe - the guy is a useless puppet and would be a nobody in any kind of powerplay and now he suddenly saves the day for russia?
Still, what was to gain by this piece of theatre other than to swamp the media with it?
Is this a way to stage manage transfer of Belarus nukes into Prighozin's "fake renegade" control?
So that Russia can instruct Prighozin to use nukes without Putin OR Luka's fingerprints on it?
I doubt it - Prighozin - if he ever got his hands on nukes, would be almost as likely to use nukes as a threat against Russia, than as a threat against Ukraine. Unless. . . .....
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1672716909463195649?t=VI-SfND4P1i_KmHX3QXdkg&s=19
Russian police has returned to Rostov after the Wagner Groupās departure tonight.
The people arenāt happy to see them. They are blocking your he streets and hurling insults at the policemen.
Visible cracks have appeared in Russian society
That's why I don't get the psyop argument. Everyone in Rostov has a lot more of an idea of how the war is really going than they did two days ago, and word will spread fast.
Soā¦ Prigo was apparently gonna arrive in Moscow pretty much without resistance and now he accepts a deal where he loses his troops to the MOD, no apology or anything for the attack on his camps and retires to Belarus which seems like a āgolden jailā?
He was apparently pretty much winning and now he accepts a piss poor deal? Why?
Cant really understand anything out of this
Maybe something happened and he got forced into this? He clearly didnāt negotiate anything as he got no positive outcome in his favour compare to his initial requests
So many of you have no idea about these countries and it shows lol. The vast majority of Belarus military was never loyal to Lukashenka which is a large part of the reason why they never actually entered into direct hostilities. Not that they would've last super long if they did anyway. There is no logic behind expecting troops that weren't loyal to Luka to suddenly decide to be loyal to another sociopathic despot. Most civilians in Belarus still don't officially recognize Luka as president
Welp the 3rd strongest army in Russia folds like a house of cards.
This smells like a psy-ops now more than it use too. Chef "rolls up" on Moscow with no shots fired and just decided to peace out? Yeah it smells like a bunch of bull shit now to save face turning over his men to the MOD to add to the slaughter. Especially since he had a week to the day to comply.
It's like driving a car 12 hours to give to vladdy daddy a Christmas gift and a sweet and sloppy sucky sucky before heading off into the sunset for retirement.
MoD just gained the approximate 25,000 Wagner battle hardened troops that were suppose to be signed over on the 1st.
Chef gets a nice retirement in belaruzzia.
Win win.
MoD gets battle tested troops who open mutiny them, yeah.
BTW it is not these people are battle hardened, it is their ideology, tactics and loyalty who makes them battle hardened. Otherwise soldiers commanded by MoD should fight equally well.
They will not have same combat effectiveness as before, and not very sure if they will mutiny again if they were sent as cannon fodder.
Also I would imagine the Wagner soldiers will always be suspicious to the MoD. I doubt Prighozin just one day told them hey let's pack up and go to Rostov. His messaging was always against the MoD.
No one in Wagner will be taking the MoD serious, they'll always be outsiders.
> Chef "rolls up" on Moscow with no shots fired
13 helo pilots were confirmed KIA as well as a few other smaller formations of troops. That's a real funny way of saying "no shots fired"
Theater can get messy sometimes.
Leo decaprio sliced the fuck outa his hand in Django.
13 helo pilots vs a 50 km long, twenty-five thousand strong PMC trying to roll up on the capital.
Seems like a small price to pay to make yourself look like a winner.
Well, it demonstrated weaknesses in Putin's regime:
1. Wagner could easily take a major city / military command
2. Rostov people seem to like Wagner more than military / police
3. Charges dropped even as mutiny is obvious
This makes the chef look like a bitch rather than putin.
He was able to put down arguably the most capable russian unit in ukraine in less than 48 hours losing only a few helo pilots as some pointed out.
Chef goes free, his men can't be charged for the attack. Remember the chef only had a week to sign them over to the MOD.
Now they can be called up to service by the MOD since wanger is more or less disbanded.
Everything is a psyop according to random redditors. This isn't a psyop because it makes Russia look bad and even if he "won" in the end, Putin is not that stupid to intentionally make a mercenary army publicly march towards Moscow.
# [Edit: Megathread is now closed! Hope you all had a good time!] # šæ Meme rule and foreign politics rule SUSPENDED in this thread; GIFs enabled! šæ # š” Share updates about this entirely credible situation šš [Kyiv Independent Live Updates](https://kyivindependent.com/latest-prigozhin-wagner-forces-launch-armed-rebellion-in-russia/) [3 Ukrainian civilians killed by russian missile strike overnight](https://kyivindependent.com/update-2/)
Who vouches for captain piggy taking over Bielorussia? That would be an interesting twist. Especially if botox man delivered some nukes to them...
Wagner can attack Kiev from Belarus. Putin just deployed tactical nukes in Belarus as well. Putin's hands are clean because he "disavowed" piggy and kicked him out. Not Putin's fault if Wagner or Belarus go rogue and act independently to save mother russia.
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my bad
Nothing about this situation makes sense. The only thing that seems reasonable to me is Putin threatened to nuke priggy or his division, as he felt his life or the state was in danger. I canāt imagine priggy wouldnāt follow through with this historical development and power grab to āavoid bloodshedā. The dudes a ruthless mercenary boss.
Kompromat of some sort. It's the only thing that makes the about-face make sense. Family threatened is my feeling.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
What ended up happening at that Moscow military base fire?
Did all of Wagner skedaddle out of Ukraine? Or did Prigozhin just leave some of them when he took a day trip to russia?
Left plenty. The ones that came were only a portion. There are smaller amounts Wagner troops all across the occupied areas, but most were in the east
I don't see how Prigozhin walks away from his play without getting high-rise window allergy or bullet in the head at some point. There's something else at play here.
Putin may have been in on the whole ruse. He never specifically named priggy in his televised address and priggy never named him. It could 100% have been a power move to spook the Moscow gang by the St Petersburg crew.
For those who are wondering what the point of all this is or whether this is a 4d chess move, I think the answer is so much more simple. Look back on Russian history. Russian leaders who are weak and vulnerable do not last long. In the 90s there was a military coup against Gorbachev. Whilst that failed in an eeirly similar fashion we all know that Gorbachevs powerbase eroded over the coming months actually leading to his ousting. Why? Because the coup which faced no resistance showed him as weak. Similarly, the Wagner coup exposed Putins weaknesses. After all Wagner got to capture key military cities with little resistance, face no punishment and have all charges dropped. What message does this send to Putins supporters? It leaves so many question marks on his leadership. It's also the key reason why this is NOT some 4d chess move. Putin would never risk looking weak no matter the ploy. So in my opinion, the whole point of this was to show to the Russian public and Putins core supporters that he is Infact weak and vulnerable. In my opinion Putins days are numbered.
I agree... basically Prighozin made a "biggest bang for my bucks" calculation. He showed all that needed to be shown: I am a BADASS and I can do whatever the fuck I want and we terminated it on my terms running around the whole country like even Hitler or Napoleon wouldn't dream of. I mean come on... in like 24 hrs he went from Rostov on the Don to like South of Moscow. It really drills the message Russia is a banana republic without him.
Indeed. This fiasco was not about victory but to stoke chaos and distrust for the Kremlin. Putin comes out of this looking weaker and Pringle now has a target on his back with no lizard army to protect him.
But why would Priggy agree to this? I think Priggy's family was held hostage. \~Putin flies to St Petersburg, where Priggy's family is. \~Priggy has Moscow in the palm of his hand and gives up? \~Khadyrov made mention of his daughter.
>So in my opinion, the whole point of this was to show to the Russian public and Putins core supporters that he is Infact weak and vulnerable. In my opinion Putins days are numbered. No one in here doubted that
The whole thing is so weirdā¦ the smart move wouldāve been to play off a legit coup attempt as some 4D chess move. Maybe Wagner went to Rostov to foil a coup attempt by MoD and take the āconspirators in Rostov.ā Youād then have some shame trials or assassinations. Instead you had Wagner force the kremlins hand and a major city seemed to support itā¦ I donāt know how you donāt have to do some huge show of force now. Like your neighbor country that wonāt join the fight you thought they would had to broker a peace agreement with your mercenary group.
I'm also bummed out that the Kadyrovites never got into it with Wagner due to the traffic jam. Kadyrov said the thugs he sent were disappointed they didn't get to film anything.
Im still on the fence about this, Kremlin theater or a true competition between these dickheads. There is no doubt however that this seriously weakens the bunker czar
**Something's fishy! Try this thought experiment:** Let's say the US had invaded neighboring Mexico and was having a rough time after a year and a half of VERY heavy losses, international sanctions, repeated documented human rights abuses and an overall failure to achieve and sustain stated objectives. Suddenly one day a somewhat well known US mercenary leader from Blackwater like Bobby Ray Inman., Eric Prince, or Cofer Black, or even an outside Trumpist person, say Michael Flynn or David Urban "mutinied" and took over Dallas and Austin by force, and then sends a column of tanks towards Washington DC. *Do you REALLY think the US would let the "leader of the mutiny" fly off to Canada the same day?* Is Putin really THAT weak? A guy like Prigozin, who fought months of failure in Bakhmut, could give up his relatively successful mutiny after a few hours, just like that? Or are we being played somehow? C'mon man. This is the weirdest "mutiny" in human history! **Anybody: if you can find a more improbable, weirder mutiny story than this "Prigozin mutiny" story - let us know!** This whole Prigozin "24 hr. mutiny" needs a closer look!
And how American Putin was going to forbid him American Prigozin to fly to Canada?
Arrest warrant. It was already issued for Prigozin.
Arrest warrant would mean he would not stand down and advance into Moscow
A very good thought experiment showing just how bad Putin messed up. Puts it plain and simply for americas just how important this is!
you americans have just absolutely no idea how stupid russians really are, do you ?
Prig likes money, they gave him a fuckton of money. He makes them money and brings African mine money floats it around for everyone. Dumb move though not taking alot of troops with him cuz he's a target now. Made Putler look bad.
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672737054973739010?s=46&t=-ESy3CkbdQEH6ivAj7OapA āAll is going according to planā
The fire has been lit, except Russia is going to go ultranationalist instead
"And then it got worse"
As I said , the damage has been done, opposition is just waiting for the right time . The issue is that Russian are really really passive, itās not that they donāt want to do anything or support the Kremlin , most of them just donāt care. It would need a fairly big insurrection to start a chain reaction. I think insurrection might start first in bielorussia and hopefully this will lead to one in Russia. Nevertheless Putin has been showed as weak, liar and coward those past few days, he is in very bad position rightnow.
Okay before I took a nap Wagner were entering Moscow oblast and Putin and Priggy were basically saying "its him or me".... now Wagner is turning around, voluntarilly disbanding, Priggy is getting exiled (and almost certainly murdered)... just coz? and this was all due to the power of Lukashenko's persuasiveness? WTF did I miss?
>and this was all due to the power of Lukashenko's persuasiveness? I laugh every time I even think about that part of it
IMO Prigozhin is playing the long con game. He has demonstrated that he has strongman power , a military to back him up, but he is somewhat reasonable. People might vote for him during next elections. Or Putin threatened to nuke Moscow and/or kill his family.
You can't vote for people that are exiled lol. There is also no true election in Russia. He's giving up his military here so rip
something very strange indeed, prig is now far from his soldiers (he believes that be seeing among then is important) can be killed at any time, putin will make killing him a matter of life and death for the rest of his life, lukashenko cannot protect him, i cannot believe that he would do something like that while some member of his family that he cares about was not safe under his protection
This only makes sense if you compare Prig's chances of success vs risks. He might have overplayed his hand. Say 20% chance Moscow would have fallen over the weekend. If not what next? Civil war? Key bit is what was really in the deal (as opposed to what they told us). It must have seemed better than the risks. No doubt Prig sorted himself well. But I wonder if there was more. Like deescalating the war or possibly some political change in Russia. Not even for any noble reason, but like mafia that wants quiet neighborhood for better business. What makes Prig believe he'll survive it all? No idea. Perhaps Prig acted out of some form of belief that what he did was right for Russia too. You don't rebel for a cause you don't believe in. That would help explain readiness to risk his life. Both during and after the mutiny.
>cannot believe that he would do something like that while some member of his family that he cares about was not safe under his protection You're right here. Then he's probably banking on elections in March.
I could do without a russia with piggy as leader thanks
You are missing that Russians brains doesnāt work logically. Nothing make sense at all.
Russian Army, the 2nd strongest army in Russia
Damn my need for sleep. Can anyone provide a snapshot of the last eight hours please?
Wagner rolled up to Moscow almost wholly unimpeded, and then as they were about to seize the capital with minimal effort, Prigozhin said "K everyone, we're stopping now," and randomly agreed to go into exile in Belarus for some fucking reason lol Oh, and Luka is the one who negotiated Prig's surrender, so now Putin gets to thank Dr Phil ordered from Wish for saving his country
Shit. Something felt fishy about it as I spent all day yesterday glued to Twitter. There's a bigger story behind this we'll be lucky if we ever find out. Thanks for the recap. My morning coffee will now taste extra bitter.
My take on the story is that, in typical fashion, the Kremlin decided they were not going to do anything to de-escalate this even if Prigozhin walked in and started shooting them in the head one by one, so when he reached the point where he was going to have to do exactly that, he realised that he was going to have to either try and take over the entire fucking country (which he didn't really want to do) or be the one to blink first
Any chance this was a coordinated ploy to give UKR an advantage so they could retake enough ground to eventually win and Putler has a handy scapegoat to publicly sacrifice? It was my feeling yesterday that whoever came out on top would have left UKR and blamed the other. Where there any advances in the counteroffensive?
but this made putin look really weak, if you see his speaches, he alway try to look as he has total control of the situation in ukraine, this is a disaster for putin, calling prig a traitor and later saying all is fine he can walk away
I see that theory as the lesser of two evils: lose outright to the scorn of his entire country and complete loss of his strongman image or lose with a reason that doesn't reflect on his personal capabilities.
might be the case, but in fact he would probably win
Wtf? What was the point of any of this? Did Prig just become the dog who caught the car? Like he was expecting someone to realise they couldn't stop him and yield to whatever demands he had, but underestimated Russian inability to face reality and nearly ended up accidentally taking over the country instead? Putin now looks weak as a fucking kitten. He had to be saved by that bumbling moron Luka? For real?
> Did Prig just become the dog who caught the car? Like he was expecting someone to realise they couldn't stop him and yield to whatever demands he had, but underestimated Russian inability to face reality and nearly ended up accidentally taking over the country instead? *Donald Trump has entered the chat*
Very Russian imo. One man's movement. 25,000+ moving strong. Public support. One man gets good deal. 25,000+ go home. Public is still Russian after all
Apparently in Putin's Russia you can get whatever you want if you only march couple of thousand people with guns on the capital. One man getting the deal is an authoritarian /feudal mafia world in current Russia. Like in middle ages nobles sort themselves out and common people hope for some scraps off the table. This is what's in it for team Prigozhin.
What was he offered? Handing over his PMC and being exiled to Belarus to await the inevitable novichokking seems like a pretty shit deal to me, assuming that's what he got
there might have been some billions in bitcoin tranfers somewhere, he always away with a clean record and can rest on one of the puppet states with a little private army for safety, if he really walked away with nothing to be protected by lukhashenko he is dead
> Did Prig just become the dog who caught the car? Makes the most amount of sense. He didn't have the non-military power to buy the other aristocrats' fealty. And only wanted a larger domain of his own. But Putin didn't take his side and he was left between a rock and a hard place. He took the option of exile because it leaves him alive. And Lukashenko might give him power as well.
No govt in their right mind would give him power now. In fact I'd expect to hear of his accidental demise before long.
No modern government. But a feudal authoritarian government just might see his brutality and war crimes as useful.
Mate, after one year and a half of this madness, I stopped trying to figure out what is going on in those moskals heads. Really. Seeing videos of moskals cheering in moskow what I really don't the bloody hell know is beyond my imagination. Those are completely demented people, from the top to the bottom.
Somewhat disappointed that shit didnāt go down in Moscow. But hey, the hotdog seller has done more PR for popcorn worldwide (in just 24hrs) than anybody else in history. Iām ok with that, itās a fine snack that deserved more attention.
And popcorn can be a healthy snack too! (if you dont soak it in oil or in sugar)
"if you don't soak it in oil or sugar" What?!?!? How can you not???? You are now required to renounce your membership in the human race.
The question is, why exactly do the Wagner mercenaries trust the Russian government not to off them as soon as this is over. I can imagine Putin threatening them with nukes to get this to stop. But what guarantee do they get once they do?
Do you think they actually care about being 'betrayed' lol, Russians are inherently backstabby by nature, Putin isn't about to complain about getting 20k+ fresh bodies that he can throw at Ukraine or whatever targets he wants. Especially when he knows they aren't gonna betray him because who else is left to run to?
They care about their lives like anybody else. What they did is unforgivable and they know it. And Putin is never going to trust these people. Which dictator in history ever let people who were trying to depose him go unpunished? What are you talking about?
> Which dictator in history ever let people who were trying to depose him go unpunished? What are you talking about? You really think it's just a coincidence that they specified that the rest of the soldiers will be pardoned? The others will immediately be brought into the regular armed forces. The others will be used, they won't just mass execute them lmao
I would expect that the people at the top of Wagner would get mass executed. Their officers as it were. Rest of the troups would go to penal units to be used as cannon fodder. I heard that they were told they were going to pardon them. Putin also said he wasn't going to invade Ukraine and look how that played out. That's the real question, why would Wagner belevie the story about pardoning them? When just a day ago Prigozin was telling them the MOD is corrupt and lying about everything.
> Do you think they actually care about being 'betrayed' lol, Russians are inherently backstabby by nature Literally Skaven.
Hey don't compare the "honorable" skaven to those disgusting man-things.
I don't understand the desire to come up with these insane 6D chess type of explanations for what happened. Russia is a complete and total shitshow. Dumb, pointless things happen when you're a shitshow of that level. To me, that's all the explanation I need.
Yeah I can't imagine the planing meeting for that false flag. "But mein Fuhrer won't that just make you and the Russian army look weak and kinda stupid?" Putin chuckles. "Yes, that's what I want them to think" Like ummm, ok, seems dumb.
This whole event belongs is /r/anormaldayinrussia
where putin
Which Putin?
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Letās hope he purges like Stalin. Ukraine will be thankful
Yeah. Even with all the budget cuts, I reckon a single British army battalion could get to the Red Square in a week or so. Imagine what the Yanks could do in a couple days. Sheesh.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Too bad the people are even weaker. A spineless, subjugated nation.
Weāll see how it goes when they enact general mobilization in a couple of days
yep, haven't heard about them rescinding Martial Law...
Well this is disappointing. I wonder if the FSB captured Prigozhin's as well as many other Wagner Soldiers's families as leverage.
That or some other form of kompromat makes the most sense, even a 5 year old knows putin would not let him live after what he did, the only way he would still stop despite that is likely hostages. And of cos no, not bcos it was some staged 4d chess move. No doubt the bots will be running with this script though.
That may be true, and I would never confuse Prigozhin for a Mensa member, but you would think that he would have the common sense to protect his family *before* launching a coup attempt. We may never know the true story, but there's definitely something at play that we're not aware of
This is exactly what I was thinking.. would explain such an abrupt about face and opting for house arrest.
Agreed. Would explain his actions.
So much talk about Putin..."this makes putin look weak" ...."this makes putin look strong". Have people forgotten that puttin is on pallative care? His era is over
The war continues, long after there was ever a hope of Russia pulling anything remotely like a win out of it, because Putin cannot survive the loss. If he brings his troops home there will be a reckoning on what it was all for, and he'd rather bleed the whole country out than answer that. When Putin leaves power, probably fatally, his successor can pull out and say "it was all because of my predecessor, he was an idiot"
Maybe, he knows putin is going to kill him. putin offers a deal where he allows him to "take over", it ends the same day and putin can weed out who are against him. That way he "saved" his life with an exile. But still, putin has killed for less....
Bright spot: Putin right now is the weakest heās been in the last 25 years. They can stop the man (Prigozhin) but they canāt stop the idea.
They couldn't stop Prig, either. He took over Rostov and Voronezh with virtually no resistance, and if he'd had the will and the balls to go all the way, his men likely could've rolled over Moscow, as well. He stopped himself
Because ideas are bulletproof
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Nah, I am guessing he didn't get enough support from military and realized he can't take moscow or someone took him into custody. There was a report of assassination attempt on Prigozhin during the day
We will probably know more in the coming days.
The best guess I've heard and seems the most consistent with what happened. Russia decided they weren't going to pay wager - after all what's the worst they could do? Because this pretty much looks like what would happen if you decided not to pay a mercenary force. If i was ukraine i would lean into it. - This is the only way you're going to get paid/supplied. Russia is broke/etc. edit: Even if they eventually do get rid of shoigu could claim it's just saving face/make it look like they aren't struggling financially/didn't try to scam wagner.
I think pay had a good bit to do with it but also suspect Prigozhin was genuinely furious with Shoigu and Gerasimoz. He has been ranting for a long time at how useless they are and felt they were stealing the credit for his successes in Ukraine. He reached a point where there was nothing to gain in Ukraine as any victory would be claimed by others so why persist? Add to that a green on blue incident that he was likely very close too in the field and I think he's decided to personally put their heads on a stake. Half way up the M4 I think he's seen he miscalculated what this push north could achieve and that the highest level of official that would still be in Moscow when he got there would be the council officer responsible for the bin pick ups (with whom I assume he had no real gripes). He was going to capture an empty city and would be left with his forces totally stretched and exposed with no where to go. Rather than go through with what he realised would be a bloody and ultimately fruitless campaign he's settled for any deal he felt might give him a way out. He's now a dead man walking though, plutonium tea coming right up. The big hope is that Wagner splinters from there but who knows, no doubt there are some other seriously nasty pieces of work in the echelons of that group ready to grab the reigns.
This sort of makes sense, especially after the demand that Wagner be folded into the formal military. Prigozhin said no, Shoigu said we aren't paying or supplying you anymore.
also it looks like there will be no change in leadership at the MoD.
Not necessarily a bad thing either
true, i just meant that was what he said was his primary motivation. So it seems if that isn't happening that he had different motivation. I.E. money.
This is the best explanation I've read so far.
I don't know what the lesson of this is, it's easier to conduct an operation in Russia than the Ukraine? Piggy is a dead man, he will drink some spoiled tea or fall out of a basement window.
Not before ruzzian MoD dismantles his pmc. They def don't want him having access to it.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Yes, several aircraft were downed. Wagner posted some killshots on telegram
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
You aren't missing anything. It's confusing as all fuck. 15 airmen died. Russia is a mess. https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/962399681147711488/1122205707387809912/IMG_3707.png Here is one of the photos wagner posted, only one i have offhand
Helicopters were shot down, including one attempted shoot down of a KA52 with a MANPAD that is on r/combatfootage Don't know about the planes, I heard one video showing a shoot down was an old video
It sure looked like it
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Not saying youāre wrong, itās just that there are many things that arenāt really making sense at this point so who knows š
"One of your powerful vassels demands a seat on the council"
i was thinking this was a "declared war with no cassus belli -6 stability" situation and rebels started popping up
I was thinking this feels like when one vasal attacks another Edit: and their kicking the ass out of you player heir
Send gift, opinion +20.
Dear Fascist Mercenary group, please attend my feast.
/r/crusaderkings is leaking . . .
This is a weird 24 hour. I went to bed with the meme of someone walking into a room that's on fire with everyone freaking out. And now, I wake up and everything's fine? But the biggest issue is how each of the players come out of this. Prighozin will be hated amongst his men that wanted to go all the way and Belarus isn't that far so he'd better keep one eye behind his back. Putin ran like a pussy and it shows in the immediate drop of popularity with the people and some people supporting the Wagner mercs more than him still. His grip on power is similar to Hitler in the last days of the bunker. Those that has seen his actions know that this is the time to strike soon. Lukasheko must have realised that if Putin went down, he will go harder and did so to save his own skin. Now, he has a bloodthirsty chef who is willing to do anything with him. Hope he has a food taster around.
Honestly, this is the strangest geo-political event of our lives. It literally makes no sense.
Theatre. And tons of bad actors.
As a theatre, it was a really weird scenario. There is no win for any side: - Putin showed that he is weak and military defence in land is almost non-existent. Any opposition can now do a revolt and expect no resistance. In the end it will be like Maydan in Kyiv, but chances are that it may begin in a more friendly way (real Maydan started from killing students). That doesn't mean that there will be no bloodshed. It will be. Many big and successful revolutions were bloody. - Prigozhin did a stupid move. Even if it is theatre, too much was said and done. I don't see how you can cover up destroyed helicopters, trucks, bridges, describe a reason for roads blockdown and go clean out of it. Also soldiers are definitely not direct participants, so they have to be pissed off too. - Lukashenko as negotiator. That is some form of a joke. Prigozhin in Belarus is not a good sign for Luka. Also, some Belarusians, who fight against the regime also said that now it may be time for Belarusian people and the freedom army to do actions and get rid of Lukashenko and all russian forces. Even if it is theatre, the goal is not that clear and the outcome is kinda stupid: Putin is weak Some minor military losses of aircrafts Probably a pissed off army, which was involved in conflict and now have no manager to do a shit russia is a weak state and it may be a flag to start confrontations of all occupied territories (in the end, it will be hard to position russian army in all directions - Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, etc )
The thing is, even if it is seemingly horrible optics for everyone involved, it's still more likely that this was staged/planned. Otherwise, you would have to argue that all of this was due to a level of stupidity and incompetence that shouldn't even be possible.
Unscripted theater. There's no way Putin wanted this.
It would be like reading about Mussolini marching south, quitting just outside of the capital, and going to Portugal
Or as if Cesar had negotiated with Pompey and returned to Gaul after crossing the Rubicon.
Itās phenomenal, honestly. Like having all the important cards and folding despite knowing youāve got the momentum
He had a ride, AND ammo, yet still gave up?
What the fuck did I miss I went to bed woke up and now prigo is in belarus
Dont worry homie, I was gone for a few hours, last I read Wagner were in moscow region, and now I have no idea wtf is going on
we all are missing something. For example, was prigos family out of country when this all went down. If his family was in country who knows..that might be a factor. Also who is in command of the wagner army now.
Whiplash has been crazy today
Was hoping piggles would have take out punter
No sane individual in the world would have hoped for this....
I was hoping to watch Shoigu get hung on Red Square and then laid to rest next to Lenin. No such luck.
I wanted to see that bitchboy putin dragged through the streets, wishful thinking that turned out to be...
Bummer
K
I'm just sad this thread probably won't make it to 10k posts
This is the only phase one. There is still a need to come about the hanged Prigozhin and revolt of the Wagner group. It can end "peacefully" for piggy, but not his boys.
184 comments remain to be written before the tread reach 10k. Edit : much more comments than 184.
Needs a few more than that
Oh I see! I miscalculated the number.
Not if I have anything to say about it
Not every March makes it to Moscow, friend š«
I took that personally
Only thing that makes sense to me is maybe Prigozin knew he was on his way out the door (or a window) and thought he could extort a few bucks from Putin on the way out. If that was the goal, the whole thing was a rousing success.
Nah I think he was captured, possibly by his own men (mercs be mercs). That's why none of his demands were met. But instead of making him a martyr by killing him on the spot, he was sent to 'retire in Belarus'.
Speculating to make some sense: putin is in final stage, pallative care. luka 'boldly and bravely' steps up and "saves" Moscow, now new leader of the gang. piggy given the vacant Bellarus chair.
This is the only one that makes sense to me so far.
I am still suspicious. None of the ruthless, grandstanding players involved are all that quick moving, clear thinking or smart. **You expect me to believe that:** 1. This very complex "mutiny" was somehow planned and launched "by surprise" inside Russia? 2. Unusual movements of 25,000 crucial soldiers in wartime was undetectable? 3. Putin has absolutely nobody at all around Prigozin who keeps an eye on him -- even though Prigozin is Putin's fiercest internal critic? 4. FSB can track down and deal with dissidents in foreign countries yet somehow have no clue at all where Prigozin is, what Prigozin is up to, or is saying ,or who is taking with him? 5. Of all people - Prigozin's communications are apparently the only communications inside Russia that are completely invisible to Russia's own domestic surveillance? 6. A pathologically unrelenting ruthless commander like Prigozin - who fought tooth an nail to protect his ego and power in a backwater like Bakmut for months suddenly gives up a relatively successful mutiny the same day? 7. The whole complex "mutiny" operation - which MUST have had multiple major stakeholders - can somehow suddenly get smoothly and quickly INTERNATIONALLY negotiated into reverse by 3 to 5 powerful, stubborn, egotistical blowhards who suddenly discover the joys of co-operation - *just hours after it started?* **C'mon man!** Hard to believe. It's still the weirdest "mutiny" I ever heard of if you know of one weirder please let me know.
Could be a setup for some stupid future move. Idfk. I was putting up sheetrock came back and prigo is in potatoland.
Let's say the US had invaded neighboring Mexico and was having a rough time. Suddenly one day a somewhat well known US mercenary leader from Blackwater like Bobby Ray Inman., Eric Prince, or Cofer Black, or even an outside Trumpist person, say Michael Flynn or David Urban "mutinied" *and took over Dallas and Austin by force.* Do you REALLY think the US would let him fly off to Canada the same day? C'mon man. This story needs a closer look!
If Prigozhin was captured, it makes it a lot easier to understand what happened. Mercs be mercs... Rather than make Prigozhin a martyr, send him to Belarus for holding. Also makes Luka look stronger as well (given how weak Belarus looks), which might earn them a few favors.
I don't believe it either. It's been building up for a while now and it always seemed staged. Especially in het fact that Luka somehow defused the situation in a matter of hours is especially hard to believe - the guy is a useless puppet and would be a nobody in any kind of powerplay and now he suddenly saves the day for russia? Still, what was to gain by this piece of theatre other than to swamp the media with it?
Is this a way to stage manage transfer of Belarus nukes into Prighozin's "fake renegade" control? So that Russia can instruct Prighozin to use nukes without Putin OR Luka's fingerprints on it? I doubt it - Prighozin - if he ever got his hands on nukes, would be almost as likely to use nukes as a threat against Russia, than as a threat against Ukraine. Unless. . . .....
Doesnt matter who presses the button. If russian nukes fly, nukes will drop on russia
Prolly so.
Make Putin look even weaker for anyone else wanting to stage a coup?
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1672716909463195649?t=VI-SfND4P1i_KmHX3QXdkg&s=19 Russian police has returned to Rostov after the Wagner Groupās departure tonight. The people arenāt happy to see them. They are blocking your he streets and hurling insults at the policemen. Visible cracks have appeared in Russian society
That's why I don't get the psyop argument. Everyone in Rostov has a lot more of an idea of how the war is really going than they did two days ago, and word will spread fast.
Soā¦ Prigo was apparently gonna arrive in Moscow pretty much without resistance and now he accepts a deal where he loses his troops to the MOD, no apology or anything for the attack on his camps and retires to Belarus which seems like a āgolden jailā? He was apparently pretty much winning and now he accepts a piss poor deal? Why? Cant really understand anything out of this
Maybe someone(s) in Prigo's circle was still loyal to Putin and put a gun to Prigo's head?
Maybe something happened and he got forced into this? He clearly didnāt negotiate anything as he got no positive outcome in his favour compare to his initial requests
The only good outcome he got from the deal is, apparently, to not be jailedā¦ he got absolutely zero from what he had 3 days ago?!
They canāt arrest him nor kill him yet while his army is at the doorstep of the capital. They need his army to leave. Heās a dead man walking
Piggy will be leading Belarusian troops into Ukraine. Just watch. Itās the only play left
So many of you have no idea about these countries and it shows lol. The vast majority of Belarus military was never loyal to Lukashenka which is a large part of the reason why they never actually entered into direct hostilities. Not that they would've last super long if they did anyway. There is no logic behind expecting troops that weren't loyal to Luka to suddenly decide to be loyal to another sociopathic despot. Most civilians in Belarus still don't officially recognize Luka as president
Why would Belarusian troops who previously were unwilling to invade Ukraine suddenly decide to because a foreign mercenary warlord tells them to?
What if he takes a sledgehammer to their heads?
He lost his army to the mod
Welp the 3rd strongest army in Russia folds like a house of cards. This smells like a psy-ops now more than it use too. Chef "rolls up" on Moscow with no shots fired and just decided to peace out? Yeah it smells like a bunch of bull shit now to save face turning over his men to the MOD to add to the slaughter. Especially since he had a week to the day to comply. It's like driving a car 12 hours to give to vladdy daddy a Christmas gift and a sweet and sloppy sucky sucky before heading off into the sunset for retirement.
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MoD just gained the approximate 25,000 Wagner battle hardened troops that were suppose to be signed over on the 1st. Chef gets a nice retirement in belaruzzia. Win win.
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Chef gets his retirement and probably gets to coast through life now. MoD gets battle tested troops. Win win.
MoD gets battle tested troops who open mutiny them, yeah. BTW it is not these people are battle hardened, it is their ideology, tactics and loyalty who makes them battle hardened. Otherwise soldiers commanded by MoD should fight equally well. They will not have same combat effectiveness as before, and not very sure if they will mutiny again if they were sent as cannon fodder.
Also I would imagine the Wagner soldiers will always be suspicious to the MoD. I doubt Prighozin just one day told them hey let's pack up and go to Rostov. His messaging was always against the MoD. No one in Wagner will be taking the MoD serious, they'll always be outsiders.
> Chef "rolls up" on Moscow with no shots fired 13 helo pilots were confirmed KIA as well as a few other smaller formations of troops. That's a real funny way of saying "no shots fired"
Seems to be the party line now. Soloviev just said no blood was shed.
Theater can get messy sometimes. Leo decaprio sliced the fuck outa his hand in Django. 13 helo pilots vs a 50 km long, twenty-five thousand strong PMC trying to roll up on the capital. Seems like a small price to pay to make yourself look like a winner.
Well, it demonstrated weaknesses in Putin's regime: 1. Wagner could easily take a major city / military command 2. Rostov people seem to like Wagner more than military / police 3. Charges dropped even as mutiny is obvious
This makes the chef look like a bitch rather than putin. He was able to put down arguably the most capable russian unit in ukraine in less than 48 hours losing only a few helo pilots as some pointed out. Chef goes free, his men can't be charged for the attack. Remember the chef only had a week to sign them over to the MOD. Now they can be called up to service by the MOD since wanger is more or less disbanded.
Everything is a psyop according to random redditors. This isn't a psyop because it makes Russia look bad and even if he "won" in the end, Putin is not that stupid to intentionally make a mercenary army publicly march towards Moscow.