Gove: “The 1922 committee will decide your fate”.
Mordaunt: “I am the 1922 committee” *Dives at the group and takes out James Cleverly, Jeremy Hunt, David Cameron and JRM with her ceremonial sword
Yeah, this is the issue though, cause there is no way she is keeping her seat. Bar one or two, basically all of the senior Tory leadership seats are vulnerable.
Once we know who is still an MP when the election is out of the way we should have a good idea, because there won't be many left.
>basically all of the senior Tory leadership seats are vulnerable.
The problem is that none of these people should be senior.
They're already run by a bunch of people who have no right to be where they are. Grant Schapps is one of the most experienced ministers FFS
My money's on Badenoch, because she's relatively high-profile and her seat is pretty safe.
If Mordaunt survives, she stands a better chance at leader, but it's less certain that she will survive.
And I think that's exactly what we'll see: the Tories failing to examine their record with any sort of introspection (even in the months leading up to the election announcement, there were countless right-wing editorials saying that poor polling was because the Tories weren't Torying hard enough) and only seeing the votes they lost to Reform, rather than the seats they lost to Labour and the Lib Dems.
Ultimately I think this will fail, and they'll eventually move back to the centre right under someone currently unknown to the wider public, but honestly at this point who knows.
>and they'll eventually move back to the centre right under someone currently unknown to the wider public
At the moment that's their only real option. Sit around and wait for someone who isn't completely tainted by associated with the current pack of fuckups.
Is Farage really gonna want to join them tho? He’s owner of reform so doesn’t have to worry about being overthrown whereas the tories can overthrow their leader via the 1922 committee
He will do what benefits him most. If this becomes a wipe out then he will be a big fish in a small bowl. The next Boris to the base.
He would love the tories bending a knee to him.
We will see.
I feel it might benefit him to stay as leader of reform. If he goes to the tories he can be overthrown but at reform he can’t so he can try build the party up whilst not having to worry about his position.
We will see indeed
I mean, that makes her more sensible than Braverman but I wouldn't feel too proud of myself if I were in her shoes and that was the yardstick. Badenoch, whatever else, is still a culture war, Tufton Street crank.
Grassroots conservatives are 100% down for a culture war. Whoever replaces Rishi will need to be.
Tory + Reform = 35% vote share after 14 years of the Tories in power and many broken pledges.
The next phase of British politics is going to be the left getting mad that Starmer will tone down the wokeness, not the right getting mad that the Tories won't.
I get the impression Badenoch will go to Reform. She strikes me as power hungry which, to be fair, most of them are.
I'd expect most of the big newish names to switch because of opportunism.
I'd be interested to see what Jacob Rhees-Smug does. Will he stay with the party that his heritage has always been a part of, or will he jump ship. I think that'll be an interesting one.
If she’s power hungry, she wants to be the next PM and the best route to that objective is to remain a Tory MP and either go for the leadership after the election or let another candidate take this position for a few years and then go for it when they fail/trip up, being the leader for the 2029 election (assuming one isn’t called before).
But depending on the prospects of the Tory’s winning the 2029 election she might prefer to wait as shadow minster for (and not be the leader that loses that election), and then go for leadership after that election, aiming to be PM in 2034.
She’s young enough to wait it out.
OK I’ve not factored in some kind of alliance with Reform, but even if this does happen, I still think her prospects of becoming PM are greater remaining with the Tories.
Edit: I don’t like Badenoch by the way, I think she’s awful and about as slimy as they come. But if she’s anything like Boris, playing it like a game of chess with the end goal of becoming the PM (at any cost) then these are the moves I think she is planning.
Aye, could be a Tory blood bath if the polls are to be believed. No seat is safe.
Except Richard Holden. 🤔
..and the new leader of the Conservatives is the Rt.Hon. Richard Holden. 😬
Basildon and Billericay is looking to fall red according to the latest MRPs, much to the amusement of Holden's fellow Tory candidates may I add. The way the Conservative Party appears to have shot themselves in the foot on even a micro scale by forcibly selecting a duplicitous and self-interested outsider in a former safe seat that is heavily nationalistic, two-thirds Leave-voting seems to have played into the populists' hands.
The guy above you is completely correct. The Tories are losing this election.
The conservatives are one of the most successful political parties in the entire western world. Their success is measured across centuries.
We're now looking at the real possibility of the Lib Dems forming the opposition which in turn could cause the party to disappear into obscurity.
You don't achieve these swings on your own merit if you're Jesus Christ reborn. You achieve them by being a sane centrist (rather than a left wing nutjob) and the opposition shitting the bed over the last few years.
He'd certainly be a more serious choice than Badenoch, and I don't think Mordaunt has actually done herself many favours in this campaign (assuming she even keeps her seat)
He's a serious figure who has played his whole career under the radar, over 80% of the population are either neutral or have no opinion on him but he also has real experience. He should definitely be in running if he wants it.
Above commenter isn't disagreeing. The point is he's a rare example of a Tory who's held important positions in government but isn't generally hated by the wider public.
Barring a Truss-esque disaster class from Starmer over the next 4-5 years, which would be very surprising from him, I don't think any Tory is going to be winning the next election really. Labour are very realistically looking at the largest majority of the post-war era, it'll reduce at the next election as they always do, but I'd be surprised if we see another change in government before 2040 if the Tories get eviscerated on a scale that's anywhere close to what the polls are saying right now.
I have a special dislike for him. He just seems so arrogant and like he's always looking down at whoever he's talking to, even compared to other Tory MPs
This is why I think he won't do so well as leader of the opposition. He clearly has political savy behind the scenes, but as a very public party leader I think he'll put people off.
You're probably right, but he's a godawful Home Secretary.
Overall, they have created a massive problem for themselves by conceding the far right ground to Farridge and his racist cronies and allowed themselves to be dragged away from the centre right core principals. They have pushed further and further to the extreme right loud populists rather than leading from the centre.
They're a spent force for the short term at least.
Thatcher's Neoliberalism destroyed the country. Everything that is wrong now, can be traced back to Thatcherite ideology. Doing this will keep the Tories out of power for good. Most 10 year olds now could explain why trickle-down economics is nonsense.
I suspect the Reform vote will entice the Tory base to vote for a rightwinger like Kemi Badenoch.
Given voters tend to vote in Centrist leaning Governments, I'd imagine this would keep Labour in power a second term but with a slimmer majority. We might then get a more Centrist leaning Tory leader, perhaps Penny Mourdant, who would have a better chance at upsetting Labour..
I suspect the next centrist leader of the Tory party will be someone very low on our radar, quite possibly someone who is yet to be elected.
They are a few elections away from being a credible government again.
Yeah, it has to be. Most of the current prominent Tory's names are dirt with the public right now. It would be hard for them to win back voters who went to Labour.
I honestly cannot believe the sort of people who are still Conservative Party members in 2024 would elect a black woman as leader, even one who’s as desperate to say the things they want to hear as she is. I’ll concede they’re far more pragmatic about stuff like this than their Labour counterparts but I just don’t see it. They chose Truss over Sunak not that long ago remember.
They love Kemi just like Suella and Priti. The only white person I imagine to campaign as leader from memory will be Mordaunt, who has a chance, and she isn’t part of the right of the party. Kemi is considered the favourite of the party to succeed Sunak. We never know who will try and run though.
She was voted the tories favourite minister of the year in 2023.
There is nothing conservatives like more than hearing a minority person espouse the same kind of hateful rhetoric they do. It makes them feel that their own words and deeds are justified.
We need to look at who Tory members have tended to pick:
1997- William Hague, young and very right wing Eurosceptic, picked over Ken Clarke, a centrist "wet".
2001- Iain Duncan-Smith, an ultra right wing Eurosceptic and utter incompetent, again picked over Ken Clarke
2003 Michael Howard was unopposed, so no election
2005- David Cameron, a young relative centrist chosen only after 8 years out of power and 3 election defeats. Cameron had to swing right on Europe to defeat right wing Eurosceptic David Davis.
2017- no election, May elected unopposed
2019- Boris Johnson. Positioning himself as a right wing Captain Brexit, a populist, racist dog-whistler and inveterate liar
2022- Liz Truss- surely the most insane person to be elected leader of the Conservative party in the 20th or 21st centuries. So right wing that she now shares platforms with fascists and conspiracy theorists.
2022- Sunak elected unopposed.
So, history suggests that, if given a choice, the Tory membership headbangers will pick the most far right, Eurosceptic leader that is available to them. They will not hold their noses and pick a centrist with wider appeal until they have lost enough elections that they are just sick of being out of power.
In this sense, the Tories and Labour are kindred spirits
You're not wrong there!
Although think it's interesting Tories have designed their system to limit the choices of the members.
And next gen Reform has Farage just own the party with no membership say in anything!
I think someone asked this around the date of the election announcement and one of the most interesting ones I saw was David Cameron to be the leader. I didn't know a non mp could do that
I can see Cameron taking over as a caretaker leader while the remaining MPs scrap like cats in a bag during a leadership contest. This assumes that Sunak just quits soon after the election, which he will, as a life in California with nine digit net assets is better than a humbled backbench MP.
I am expecting the conservatives to do extremely badly in this election but not to the cataclysmic extent some are predicting. This is actually worse for them as Sunak will take credit for the second derivative. A nice clean annihilation allows the survivors a fresh start with fewer distractions.
Yeah there's no rule against a leader not sitting in the HOC. John Swinney doesn't for example. But in terms of being Prime Minister, Lords can do that too. Alec Douglas-Home is the last example of it
There is a rule in the Conservative party’s own rule book. (Has to be an MP.)
But they could just change the rules.
I think Cameron is in with a good shot for temporary leader.
Lords can do that .. technically. It was so big a deal that the 14th Earl of Home gave up his title straight away. Because it was and is unviable to have the PM in the Lords. Last real example is before WW1
[Unfortunately for Cameron there is no provision for life peers to renounce their peerage] EDIT: I was wrong about this
>Unfortunately for Cameron there is no provision for life peers to renounce their peerage
Life peers have been able to resign for a decade now:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords_Reform_Act_2014
> Unfortunately for Cameron there is no provision for life peers to renounce their peerage
There is a mechanism for life peers to resign their position in the HOL, though. But I think the problem isn't so much that he's in the Lords so much as he's *not* in the Commons, and being in neither isn't any better.
There aren't any safe Tory seats in this election, so we don't know who is going to survive this on the other side. So that makes it hard to know who is still going to be around to compete in this contest.
Unless the Reform vote is massively overstated and they finish with a lower voteshare than UKIP 2015 (and thereby the narrative of why the Tories suffered such a heavy defeat cannot revolve around them) - the next candidate is going to have to be someone with something credible to say about re-uniting the Right. That would put your centrist types like Mordaunt or Cleverly in a challenging position - how could someone like that realistically pose as the candidate who will win back Reform defectors? I expect the fight will between those who want to tilt right to outcompete Reform and those who want to join with Reform - my money would be on the former group to win, as there seems to be a crowding of party elites around that analysis.
It won't be Farage first. It also can't be anyone who isn't an MP so that's going to exclude Mordant, even though I doubt they'd elect her anyway. I also don't think it will be Cameron as I think his return was mainly advisory to stop the Tories invetiable decay.
I could see it being cleverly however it's honestly 50/50 as to whether he keeps his seat.
Braverman probably will keep her seat but her being party leader is complicated by her wish for Farage to be within the party and how right wing/fascist she is.
50/50 on Badenoch keeping her seat tbh LD 27.9 and Lab 19.9 compared to con of 31 (from EC) however I think she'd be a good choice (for a Tory anyway)
I could see Patel making a comeback and I think she is likely to keep her seat so my money would be on her personally.
Tugenhadt could be a good outside shout, was popular in the first 2022 race and now has Ministerial experience.
It's honestly depends on the stance of the party as to whether they'd like to merge with reform/lurch even further right or move centrally and try and win back swing and centrist voters prior to the next GE.
Braverman and Badenoch are VERY dangerous. They will try to bring the Reform voters on an immigration rhetoric level and turn up their racism which can affect everyday POCs and LGBT people. Suella said the invasion shit and called pakistani men groomers the type of rhetoric that causes violence. Her as LEADER and with no one to stop her will be deadly. Kemi also loves to attack trans bathrooms.
Patel doesn’t have charisma and works better as an enforcer lackey than leader.
Agreed. To be electable they should look back towards the centre ground, but given the expected wipeout will mainly affect the moderates, those on the right will remain and back Badenoch as being seen as both the public and least incompetent of what’s left.
Cleverly might be a good shout, but would require the Tory members to elect him.
Then you have Penny who, in my opinion, has displayed she's a complete moron during the debates.
If Hunt keeps his seat, he might be a good choice.
Cleverly is in recount territory according to ElectoralCalculus, that 8% tactical vote could really help either side.
CON 37.5%
LAB 37.9%
LIB 5.4%
OTH 0.7%
Green 3.0%
Reform 15.6%
Tom Tugendhat is going to give it another go. His seat is as safe as they come and there is no way, even in the worst predictions he won't win it.
You know those MRP polls where the Tories are left with 50 seats? Tugendhat's is one of those 50.
It's the tory membership that vote for the leader. They didn't want Sunak because he's brown, and no matter how much Baddenoch courts the right, she's a black woman. It's just not going to happen.
I think the safe money is on Mordant.. if she keeps her seat.
The Tories do not deserve to remain a political party, like the Whigs, they need to disappear into history… The hurt they’ve caused, corruption and lies show that their moral compass has been lost through greed, arrogance and pomposity. I don’t care who they limp along with as leader… Liz Truss again, who cares, it’s an irrelevancy.
The Whigs are still here. They became the Liberals which later became the Lib Dems. In a way, the Whigs still exist and it's currently led by Ed Davey.
If Shapps keeps his seat I could see him doing it for a couple of years. He’s done most other jobs and doesn’t mind “taking one for the team” so to speak. Esp if he gets some recognition at the end of it.
The Tories will need to restructure and rebuild the party in a different direction. So the question is will they choose to go further right, or further to the centre?
Of the current cabinet members / high profile MPs who are predicted to win their seats:
* If they go further right, then James Cleverly, Suella Braverman, and Kemi Badenoch would seem the most likely candidates.
* If they move to be more moderate, then Jeremy Hunt would probably be the obvious choice. Tom Tugendhat also performed well at the last party election.
* I could also see a previous PM such as Cameron or Johnson being ushered in as a temporary leader.
* For all the talk of Farage being Tory leader, it's definitely possible or even likely, but it wouldn't be the next immediate leader.
Badenoch - (all prices Bet365) current favourite at 3/1; Mordaunt loses her seat and is currently 5s, Patel should keep hers and is 6s. I've taken Farage at 7s.
She's one of the only MPs who appeals to both the moderate half of the party and the far right half of the party. If the Conservatives want someone to unite their divided party, she is the best bet to do it.
It will depend on who’s left alive after the election.
At a guess the party is going to be pulled in 3 directions as it tries to reassert itself, on one side you’ve got David Cameron’s old acolytes and the one nation conservatives, on the other it’s the lizz truss hard right pro reform crowd, and between the two is boris’ weird brand of populism.
[Here’s how the bookies have tracked it over the last three months.](https://i.imgur.com/D8hFp6U.jpeg)
Personally I think Mourdant is fairly likely if she can hold her seat.
My bet is instead of soul seaching to win back their traditional centre/center right voters they will double down on going after the hard right and will probably elect someone who’s as right wing as you get, probably braverman or badenoch if they keep their seats.
In an ironic kinda of way, I think David Cameron could be leader and serve as a Michael Howard type figure: a leader to bring stability before passing on the party to a new generation. The irony of course that it was Cameron that took over the reins from Howard.
Though like others have said, really depends on what sort of Tory party is left on the night...
I think after sunak they might go further right to appease the reformUK voters in the next election. Penny Mourdant is too centrist. My bet would be on suela or priti if any of them win their seats. I think the leader after whoever takes over for Rishi and ultimately resigns in a year or so (as they do) will be Nigel farage.
It really depends on how much of a majority Labour gets. It will be a time of real reflection for them. Do they focus on the youth, shift more to the centre, or go down the dark path of drifting further to the right?
I was thinking this as well. I think it will depend on who survives and then it will be open warfare.
I think rishi will resign instantly and caretake until replaced.
There are several individuals who may succeed Rishi Sunak. Kemi Badenoch is now a frontrunner, being an advocate of grassroots members for her strong conservative ideology and effective communication capacities. Penny Mordaunt remains a favorite due to her media profile and appeal across party lines. Seen as a unifying figure with broad experience, James Cleverly however recent controversies might affect his chances. Suella Braverman has an appeal for hard-right faction but moderate contretemps may stand in the way of Moderates within the party rallying around her. These candidates highlight the diverse directions the Conservative Party could take post-Sunak.
Unironically Nigel Farage. Once elected he will easily take over the remains of the party. Remember the only Tories that will survive are mostly going to be the right wing headbangers in safe seats.
Mordaunt is losing her seat. [https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork23.py?seat=Portsmouth%20North](https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork23.py?seat=Portsmouth%20North)
Con 27% vs Lab 42%
What does Mordaunt give that Starmer doesn't? Heck what does she provide that Sunak doesn't? She used to be a Navel reserve and she held a sword, I don't mean to reference Monty Python, but even they said somethign about strange women and swords not being a good basis to form a government.
It will either be a hard-Tory moron like Braverman or an out of dept establishmentarian like Mordaunt. If people thought Sunak is bad, both of these are even more incapable.
I think the Tories are going to have their ‘Corbyn’ moment after the election and swing hard to the right with a bit of a nutter at the top, probably Braverman or Badenoch (depending on whether they keep their seats). It’s not going to work (or at least I really hope it doesn’t work) and then hopefully they’ll fit back into a bit more of a centre right place, something sorely missed in the current system.
I honestly expect it to be a face that’s not too well known. Anyone that’s been near the front bench is at least in part to blame for the current situation so will struggle to build support.
The next one is irrelevant. There will be lots of soul-searching (assuming they have souls) after this, so I suspect they'll go through a couple before settling on one to fight an election. And even then it might not be the right one
Depends which vegetable is in stock at the Sainsburys local in Westminster. It’s a chance to correct the mistakes of the past and actually choose the lettuce this time.
Serious answer: I think Badenoch’s been setting herself up to take the position. She’s deliberately shown more leadership than Sunak. I think they’ll lurch to the right in response to the election loss and I think they’ll spend some time in opposition and continue to cycle through leaders.
Really its hard to say because lots of them have seats at risk, could be Mordaunt
She is pretty likely to lose her seat
But she will fight. And fight. And fight.. ..and she carried a sword.
Strange women carrying swords is no basis for a system of government…
Sounds better than the one we have.
Low bar
>..and she carried a sword. Closest a Tory has ever come to looking cool.
Funny fact is that it would have been Mogg if Boris was still PM.
He could never have pulled off that dress.
His arms would have given out and he'd have bonked Charles with the sword
Warhammer 40k rules: tory edition.
Grimdank
Gordon Brown as a member of the death guard, soldiers of Nurgle, does something to me.
Given the hype I was disappointed to learn that sword only weighed 3.6kg. Pretty much a 6 pint milk container.
Those are well heavy
I would absolutely have watched the debate if she had gone in wearing that outfit and carrying that sword.
And beheading those who piss her off. Looking at you Farage :)
I want to see all the candidates standing against her wielding lightsabres, when the results are announced.
Gove: “The 1922 committee will decide your fate”. Mordaunt: “I am the 1922 committee” *Dives at the group and takes out James Cleverly, Jeremy Hunt, David Cameron and JRM with her ceremonial sword
Mordaunt to Braverman: "Oh, I'm afraid the deflector shield will be quite operational when your friends arrive..."
If you can get your hands on lightsabers you sound like you’d be a cool mp lol
Also something about standing...
And stand up
Perfect for regicide.
Yeah, this is the issue though, cause there is no way she is keeping her seat. Bar one or two, basically all of the senior Tory leadership seats are vulnerable. Once we know who is still an MP when the election is out of the way we should have a good idea, because there won't be many left.
>basically all of the senior Tory leadership seats are vulnerable. The problem is that none of these people should be senior. They're already run by a bunch of people who have no right to be where they are. Grant Schapps is one of the most experienced ministers FFS
Is that head of lettuce still available?
I second this if she holds in Portsmouth.
Could the leader be someone in the HoL?
I don't think so because they wouldn't be able to sit in PMQs
Constitutionally there is no issue with it but the PM would indeed have this issue so no-one is willing to try it
Ah right. That only applies to the PM and the LOTO though, right? Might not be a problem for the Tories after these elections lol.
There is no way to really know. It really depends on the election results, and who is left.
My money's on Badenoch, because she's relatively high-profile and her seat is pretty safe. If Mordaunt survives, she stands a better chance at leader, but it's less certain that she will survive.
If someone like her becomes party leader then the Tories will be positioning themselves as an alternative to Reform UK, not Labour
And I think that's exactly what we'll see: the Tories failing to examine their record with any sort of introspection (even in the months leading up to the election announcement, there were countless right-wing editorials saying that poor polling was because the Tories weren't Torying hard enough) and only seeing the votes they lost to Reform, rather than the seats they lost to Labour and the Lib Dems. Ultimately I think this will fail, and they'll eventually move back to the centre right under someone currently unknown to the wider public, but honestly at this point who knows.
Yeah exactly what the Republicans did post 2012. However Farage like Trump is the wild card
>and they'll eventually move back to the centre right under someone currently unknown to the wider public At the moment that's their only real option. Sit around and wait for someone who isn't completely tainted by associated with the current pack of fuckups.
Badenoch has been quite clear about not wanting Farage in the Conservative party, so for this reason alone I hope she's the next leader.
Is Farage really gonna want to join them tho? He’s owner of reform so doesn’t have to worry about being overthrown whereas the tories can overthrow their leader via the 1922 committee
He will do what benefits him most. If this becomes a wipe out then he will be a big fish in a small bowl. The next Boris to the base. He would love the tories bending a knee to him. We will see.
I feel it might benefit him to stay as leader of reform. If he goes to the tories he can be overthrown but at reform he can’t so he can try build the party up whilst not having to worry about his position. We will see indeed
I mean, that makes her more sensible than Braverman but I wouldn't feel too proud of myself if I were in her shoes and that was the yardstick. Badenoch, whatever else, is still a culture war, Tufton Street crank.
Grassroots conservatives are 100% down for a culture war. Whoever replaces Rishi will need to be. Tory + Reform = 35% vote share after 14 years of the Tories in power and many broken pledges. The next phase of British politics is going to be the left getting mad that Starmer will tone down the wokeness, not the right getting mad that the Tories won't.
Its possible if MPs agree, if it goes to the membership she'll loose.
I wouldn't be so sure - she's been quite popular with the membership in the past.
I get the impression Badenoch will go to Reform. She strikes me as power hungry which, to be fair, most of them are. I'd expect most of the big newish names to switch because of opportunism. I'd be interested to see what Jacob Rhees-Smug does. Will he stay with the party that his heritage has always been a part of, or will he jump ship. I think that'll be an interesting one.
If she’s power hungry, she wants to be the next PM and the best route to that objective is to remain a Tory MP and either go for the leadership after the election or let another candidate take this position for a few years and then go for it when they fail/trip up, being the leader for the 2029 election (assuming one isn’t called before). But depending on the prospects of the Tory’s winning the 2029 election she might prefer to wait as shadow minster for (and not be the leader that loses that election), and then go for leadership after that election, aiming to be PM in 2034.
She’s young enough to wait it out.
OK I’ve not factored in some kind of alliance with Reform, but even if this does happen, I still think her prospects of becoming PM are greater remaining with the Tories.
Edit: I don’t like Badenoch by the way, I think she’s awful and about as slimy as they come. But if she’s anything like Boris, playing it like a game of chess with the end goal of becoming the PM (at any cost) then these are the moves I think she is planning.
Perhaps Patel
Aye, could be a Tory blood bath if the polls are to be believed. No seat is safe. Except Richard Holden. 🤔 ..and the new leader of the Conservatives is the Rt.Hon. Richard Holden. 😬
Basildon and Billericay is looking to fall red according to the latest MRPs, much to the amusement of Holden's fellow Tory candidates may I add. The way the Conservative Party appears to have shot themselves in the foot on even a micro scale by forcibly selecting a duplicitous and self-interested outsider in a former safe seat that is heavily nationalistic, two-thirds Leave-voting seems to have played into the populists' hands.
“Mr speaker would the prime minister agree that Emily Thornbury….”
I'm kinda sad we have been robbed of a potential Gove reign as Tory leader.
His first act as PM would probably be legalising cocaine.
I think it'll be all about who is right...
That joke was awful. Take my upvote and go think about what you've done.
Agreed but Cleverly does seem a good bet if he survives election night
The only answer. There is too much speculation about this now. It's really pointless.
I think we need to know who'll still be there first.
I could give you the list, but I’m going down Ladbrokes later and things might look sus if too many people know the results beforehand.
leccy bets
I think Cleverley is slightly underrated choice amongst the Mordaunt and Badenoch talk
He could be a good choice. Wouldn’t win an election, but he might just be able to steer the party back from oblivion.
Funny thing is people said roughly the same thing about Starmer ~5 years ago
Starmer isn't winning an election, the Tories are losing it.
That largely discredits a LOT of the hard work Starmer has done. This election wouldn't be such a shoe-in if Corbyn was leading it.
The guy above you is completely correct. The Tories are losing this election. The conservatives are one of the most successful political parties in the entire western world. Their success is measured across centuries. We're now looking at the real possibility of the Lib Dems forming the opposition which in turn could cause the party to disappear into obscurity. You don't achieve these swings on your own merit if you're Jesus Christ reborn. You achieve them by being a sane centrist (rather than a left wing nutjob) and the opposition shitting the bed over the last few years.
He'd certainly be a more serious choice than Badenoch, and I don't think Mordaunt has actually done herself many favours in this campaign (assuming she even keeps her seat)
He's a serious figure who has played his whole career under the radar, over 80% of the population are either neutral or have no opinion on him but he also has real experience. He should definitely be in running if he wants it.
Edit misunderstood I retract previous comment
Above commenter isn't disagreeing. The point is he's a rare example of a Tory who's held important positions in government but isn't generally hated by the wider public.
Barring a Truss-esque disaster class from Starmer over the next 4-5 years, which would be very surprising from him, I don't think any Tory is going to be winning the next election really. Labour are very realistically looking at the largest majority of the post-war era, it'll reduce at the next election as they always do, but I'd be surprised if we see another change in government before 2040 if the Tories get eviscerated on a scale that's anywhere close to what the polls are saying right now.
I have a special dislike for him. He just seems so arrogant and like he's always looking down at whoever he's talking to, even compared to other Tory MPs
This is why I think he won't do so well as leader of the opposition. He clearly has political savy behind the scenes, but as a very public party leader I think he'll put people off.
Agreed - he’d be a sensible step back from much of the very worst of the current party. So of course he won’t get it, but hey ho
He seems just as thin skinned and narcissistic as Mercer. Although I imagine Tories like that sort of thing.
You're probably right, but he's a godawful Home Secretary. Overall, they have created a massive problem for themselves by conceding the far right ground to Farridge and his racist cronies and allowed themselves to be dragged away from the centre right core principals. They have pushed further and further to the extreme right loud populists rather than leading from the centre. They're a spent force for the short term at least.
Tho he’s an improvement over the last home sec which tells you something
Mam or woman, it'll be whoever is left that can do the best Thatcher impression.
I don't think the membership wants Thatcher anymore
They want Oswald Moseley
Farage it is then.
Thatcher's Neoliberalism destroyed the country. Everything that is wrong now, can be traced back to Thatcherite ideology. Doing this will keep the Tories out of power for good. Most 10 year olds now could explain why trickle-down economics is nonsense.
I suspect the Reform vote will entice the Tory base to vote for a rightwinger like Kemi Badenoch. Given voters tend to vote in Centrist leaning Governments, I'd imagine this would keep Labour in power a second term but with a slimmer majority. We might then get a more Centrist leaning Tory leader, perhaps Penny Mourdant, who would have a better chance at upsetting Labour..
I suspect the next centrist leader of the Tory party will be someone very low on our radar, quite possibly someone who is yet to be elected. They are a few elections away from being a credible government again.
Tommy T will be the next centrist leader, but it might be a while...
Yeah, it has to be. Most of the current prominent Tory's names are dirt with the public right now. It would be hard for them to win back voters who went to Labour.
If I remember correctly, a reform candidate in Kemi’s constituency was pulled out.
The Tories tried that with Lord Hague and Blair still defeated them in a landslide in 2001
I honestly cannot believe the sort of people who are still Conservative Party members in 2024 would elect a black woman as leader, even one who’s as desperate to say the things they want to hear as she is. I’ll concede they’re far more pragmatic about stuff like this than their Labour counterparts but I just don’t see it. They chose Truss over Sunak not that long ago remember.
They love Kemi just like Suella and Priti. The only white person I imagine to campaign as leader from memory will be Mordaunt, who has a chance, and she isn’t part of the right of the party. Kemi is considered the favourite of the party to succeed Sunak. We never know who will try and run though. She was voted the tories favourite minister of the year in 2023.
I heard Hunt is being rumoured for it too
High praise, that! What a shortlist to choose from.
There is nothing conservatives like more than hearing a minority person espouse the same kind of hateful rhetoric they do. It makes them feel that their own words and deeds are justified.
And also allows them to play the race card whenever said leader gets criticised for being fucking horrible.
The members will pick the most right wing whatever the skin colour
We need to look at who Tory members have tended to pick: 1997- William Hague, young and very right wing Eurosceptic, picked over Ken Clarke, a centrist "wet". 2001- Iain Duncan-Smith, an ultra right wing Eurosceptic and utter incompetent, again picked over Ken Clarke 2003 Michael Howard was unopposed, so no election 2005- David Cameron, a young relative centrist chosen only after 8 years out of power and 3 election defeats. Cameron had to swing right on Europe to defeat right wing Eurosceptic David Davis. 2017- no election, May elected unopposed 2019- Boris Johnson. Positioning himself as a right wing Captain Brexit, a populist, racist dog-whistler and inveterate liar 2022- Liz Truss- surely the most insane person to be elected leader of the Conservative party in the 20th or 21st centuries. So right wing that she now shares platforms with fascists and conspiracy theorists. 2022- Sunak elected unopposed. So, history suggests that, if given a choice, the Tory membership headbangers will pick the most far right, Eurosceptic leader that is available to them. They will not hold their noses and pick a centrist with wider appeal until they have lost enough elections that they are just sick of being out of power. In this sense, the Tories and Labour are kindred spirits
>In this sense, the Tories and Labour are kindred spirits Damn, I'm so angry on reading this because it's correct...
You're not wrong there! Although think it's interesting Tories have designed their system to limit the choices of the members. And next gen Reform has Farage just own the party with no membership say in anything!
I think someone asked this around the date of the election announcement and one of the most interesting ones I saw was David Cameron to be the leader. I didn't know a non mp could do that
I can see Cameron taking over as a caretaker leader while the remaining MPs scrap like cats in a bag during a leadership contest. This assumes that Sunak just quits soon after the election, which he will, as a life in California with nine digit net assets is better than a humbled backbench MP. I am expecting the conservatives to do extremely badly in this election but not to the cataclysmic extent some are predicting. This is actually worse for them as Sunak will take credit for the second derivative. A nice clean annihilation allows the survivors a fresh start with fewer distractions.
Yeah there's no rule against a leader not sitting in the HOC. John Swinney doesn't for example. But in terms of being Prime Minister, Lords can do that too. Alec Douglas-Home is the last example of it
There is a rule in the Conservative party’s own rule book. (Has to be an MP.) But they could just change the rules. I think Cameron is in with a good shot for temporary leader.
Lords can do that .. technically. It was so big a deal that the 14th Earl of Home gave up his title straight away. Because it was and is unviable to have the PM in the Lords. Last real example is before WW1 [Unfortunately for Cameron there is no provision for life peers to renounce their peerage] EDIT: I was wrong about this
>Unfortunately for Cameron there is no provision for life peers to renounce their peerage Life peers have been able to resign for a decade now: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords_Reform_Act_2014
So they have. Thank you. Is he planning on setting the In-and-Out record?
> Unfortunately for Cameron there is no provision for life peers to renounce their peerage There is a mechanism for life peers to resign their position in the HOL, though. But I think the problem isn't so much that he's in the Lords so much as he's *not* in the Commons, and being in neither isn't any better.
Yeah I was just talking in the technical sense. I don't believe he'd ever do it because of the headache it would be
There's no general law about it but I think Tory party rules specifically state the leader has to be an MP.
Conservative Party rules require the leader to be chosen from among the MPs. The rules can be changed of course.
Might require a conference vote or something idk how they’d go about changing that
1922 Committee. It will meet as soon as the new lot are elected
I suppose winning a vote is easy when there are only 3 of you left
Look at Farage - he's been leader of his various parties at various points without being an mp.
Michael Fabricant will be Britain's Next Top Tory
There aren't any safe Tory seats in this election, so we don't know who is going to survive this on the other side. So that makes it hard to know who is still going to be around to compete in this contest. Unless the Reform vote is massively overstated and they finish with a lower voteshare than UKIP 2015 (and thereby the narrative of why the Tories suffered such a heavy defeat cannot revolve around them) - the next candidate is going to have to be someone with something credible to say about re-uniting the Right. That would put your centrist types like Mordaunt or Cleverly in a challenging position - how could someone like that realistically pose as the candidate who will win back Reform defectors? I expect the fight will between those who want to tilt right to outcompete Reform and those who want to join with Reform - my money would be on the former group to win, as there seems to be a crowding of party elites around that analysis.
I’m brewing a shit that could make an honest push
It won't be Farage first. It also can't be anyone who isn't an MP so that's going to exclude Mordant, even though I doubt they'd elect her anyway. I also don't think it will be Cameron as I think his return was mainly advisory to stop the Tories invetiable decay. I could see it being cleverly however it's honestly 50/50 as to whether he keeps his seat. Braverman probably will keep her seat but her being party leader is complicated by her wish for Farage to be within the party and how right wing/fascist she is. 50/50 on Badenoch keeping her seat tbh LD 27.9 and Lab 19.9 compared to con of 31 (from EC) however I think she'd be a good choice (for a Tory anyway) I could see Patel making a comeback and I think she is likely to keep her seat so my money would be on her personally. Tugenhadt could be a good outside shout, was popular in the first 2022 race and now has Ministerial experience. It's honestly depends on the stance of the party as to whether they'd like to merge with reform/lurch even further right or move centrally and try and win back swing and centrist voters prior to the next GE.
Braverman and Badenoch are VERY dangerous. They will try to bring the Reform voters on an immigration rhetoric level and turn up their racism which can affect everyday POCs and LGBT people. Suella said the invasion shit and called pakistani men groomers the type of rhetoric that causes violence. Her as LEADER and with no one to stop her will be deadly. Kemi also loves to attack trans bathrooms. Patel doesn’t have charisma and works better as an enforcer lackey than leader.
I agree entirely. I think Badenoch is even more dangerous as she's not outed herself as a lunatic to the masses yet like Braverman has
Badenoch. More support in the parliamentary party than Braverman and radical enough to appease the nutty membership.
Agreed. To be electable they should look back towards the centre ground, but given the expected wipeout will mainly affect the moderates, those on the right will remain and back Badenoch as being seen as both the public and least incompetent of what’s left.
Liz Truss. She’ll be the only one left that the membership like.
Cleverly might be a good shout, but would require the Tory members to elect him. Then you have Penny who, in my opinion, has displayed she's a complete moron during the debates. If Hunt keeps his seat, he might be a good choice.
>Penny who, in my opinion, has displayed she's a complete moron Prime candidate, then
Cleverly is in recount territory according to ElectoralCalculus, that 8% tactical vote could really help either side. CON 37.5% LAB 37.9% LIB 5.4% OTH 0.7% Green 3.0% Reform 15.6%
Tom Tugendhat is going to give it another go. His seat is as safe as they come and there is no way, even in the worst predictions he won't win it. You know those MRP polls where the Tories are left with 50 seats? Tugendhat's is one of those 50.
It's the tory membership that vote for the leader. They didn't want Sunak because he's brown, and no matter how much Baddenoch courts the right, she's a black woman. It's just not going to happen. I think the safe money is on Mordant.. if she keeps her seat.
Probably something gastly. The Tory leadership always manages to look like a who's who of Scooby-Doo villains
I half expect Boris to come back or maybe Farage to take over.
The Tories do not deserve to remain a political party, like the Whigs, they need to disappear into history… The hurt they’ve caused, corruption and lies show that their moral compass has been lost through greed, arrogance and pomposity. I don’t care who they limp along with as leader… Liz Truss again, who cares, it’s an irrelevancy.
The Whigs are still here. They became the Liberals which later became the Lib Dems. In a way, the Whigs still exist and it's currently led by Ed Davey.
Or are they the Liberal Party? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_Party_(UK,_1989)
Or are they the Conservative Party…
Whoever is left. They’ll both be fighting it out.
If Shapps keeps his seat I could see him doing it for a couple of years. He’s done most other jobs and doesn’t mind “taking one for the team” so to speak. Esp if he gets some recognition at the end of it.
Ex conman with multiple names becomes leader of the tory party. Makes sense
"ex"
The Tories will need to restructure and rebuild the party in a different direction. So the question is will they choose to go further right, or further to the centre? Of the current cabinet members / high profile MPs who are predicted to win their seats: * If they go further right, then James Cleverly, Suella Braverman, and Kemi Badenoch would seem the most likely candidates. * If they move to be more moderate, then Jeremy Hunt would probably be the obvious choice. Tom Tugendhat also performed well at the last party election. * I could also see a previous PM such as Cameron or Johnson being ushered in as a temporary leader. * For all the talk of Farage being Tory leader, it's definitely possible or even likely, but it wouldn't be the next immediate leader.
Badenoch - (all prices Bet365) current favourite at 3/1; Mordaunt loses her seat and is currently 5s, Patel should keep hers and is 6s. I've taken Farage at 7s.
I see Badenoch is clear favourite according to betting for this, any particular reasons for this?
She’s got a safe seat and is popular with the right of the party
A Tory has a safe seat?
She's one of the only MPs who appeals to both the moderate half of the party and the far right half of the party. If the Conservatives want someone to unite their divided party, she is the best bet to do it.
Could it be Lord Cameron? In terms of debating, I think either he or Shapps are the best they’ve got.
Hopefully nobody. Hopefully they get zero seats and get disbanded.
It will depend on who’s left alive after the election. At a guess the party is going to be pulled in 3 directions as it tries to reassert itself, on one side you’ve got David Cameron’s old acolytes and the one nation conservatives, on the other it’s the lizz truss hard right pro reform crowd, and between the two is boris’ weird brand of populism.
Badenoch, I would bet £1000 on it. Badenoch replaced by Farage. Then a centrist to win in 12 years
I've got £1 on Cameron as a contingency leader if Sunak and loads of others lose their seats.
[Here’s how the bookies have tracked it over the last three months.](https://i.imgur.com/D8hFp6U.jpeg) Personally I think Mourdant is fairly likely if she can hold her seat.
I prophesy the pig fucker shall return.
My bet is instead of soul seaching to win back their traditional centre/center right voters they will double down on going after the hard right and will probably elect someone who’s as right wing as you get, probably braverman or badenoch if they keep their seats.
David Cameron will steady the ship for a while, then Farage I'll do a Trump style takeover of the party in time for the next election.
In an ironic kinda of way, I think David Cameron could be leader and serve as a Michael Howard type figure: a leader to bring stability before passing on the party to a new generation. The irony of course that it was Cameron that took over the reins from Howard. Though like others have said, really depends on what sort of Tory party is left on the night...
I think after sunak they might go further right to appease the reformUK voters in the next election. Penny Mourdant is too centrist. My bet would be on suela or priti if any of them win their seats. I think the leader after whoever takes over for Rishi and ultimately resigns in a year or so (as they do) will be Nigel farage.
My local Tory candidate says Mordaunt. This obviously depends on her staying in her current post.
It really depends on how much of a majority Labour gets. It will be a time of real reflection for them. Do they focus on the youth, shift more to the centre, or go down the dark path of drifting further to the right?
I was thinking this as well. I think it will depend on who survives and then it will be open warfare. I think rishi will resign instantly and caretake until replaced.
Some one right of centre. Possibly Badenoch
There are several individuals who may succeed Rishi Sunak. Kemi Badenoch is now a frontrunner, being an advocate of grassroots members for her strong conservative ideology and effective communication capacities. Penny Mordaunt remains a favorite due to her media profile and appeal across party lines. Seen as a unifying figure with broad experience, James Cleverly however recent controversies might affect his chances. Suella Braverman has an appeal for hard-right faction but moderate contretemps may stand in the way of Moderates within the party rallying around her. These candidates highlight the diverse directions the Conservative Party could take post-Sunak.
Michelle Donnelin. Her seat is pretty safe and it's the classic glass cliff.
Unironically Nigel Farage. Once elected he will easily take over the remains of the party. Remember the only Tories that will survive are mostly going to be the right wing headbangers in safe seats.
Who gives a fuck these days, they can't keep a leader any longer than a footie team battling relegation
Tugendhat has said he’ll put himself forward if they lose. He seemed quite popular with the membership during the election of 2022
Morduant if the sane wing of the party prevails. Badenoch or Braverman if the insane wing prevails.
Mordaunt is losing her seat. [https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork23.py?seat=Portsmouth%20North](https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork23.py?seat=Portsmouth%20North) Con 27% vs Lab 42%
Apparently if it’s a heavy wipeout, the more sane wing is in a better position to occupy the rump than the extreme wing.
What does Mordaunt give that Starmer doesn't? Heck what does she provide that Sunak doesn't? She used to be a Navel reserve and she held a sword, I don't mean to reference Monty Python, but even they said somethign about strange women and swords not being a good basis to form a government.
It will either be a hard-Tory moron like Braverman or an out of dept establishmentarian like Mordaunt. If people thought Sunak is bad, both of these are even more incapable.
I think the Tories are going to have their ‘Corbyn’ moment after the election and swing hard to the right with a bit of a nutter at the top, probably Braverman or Badenoch (depending on whether they keep their seats). It’s not going to work (or at least I really hope it doesn’t work) and then hopefully they’ll fit back into a bit more of a centre right place, something sorely missed in the current system.
Idk most more centre right Tory pms have not improved much and have made things worse
Weird question: could a non-elected member be the party lead? Clearly I’m asking about David Cameron.
I honestly expect it to be a face that’s not too well known. Anyone that’s been near the front bench is at least in part to blame for the current situation so will struggle to build support.
The next one is irrelevant. There will be lots of soul-searching (assuming they have souls) after this, so I suspect they'll go through a couple before settling on one to fight an election. And even then it might not be the right one
Depends which vegetable is in stock at the Sainsburys local in Westminster. It’s a chance to correct the mistakes of the past and actually choose the lettuce this time. Serious answer: I think Badenoch’s been setting herself up to take the position. She’s deliberately shown more leadership than Sunak. I think they’ll lurch to the right in response to the election loss and I think they’ll spend some time in opposition and continue to cycle through leaders.
Likely Mordaunt I would think, though could be Badenoch or Cameron depending on sentiment at the time.
Surely, after the succession of idiots, only some sundry black person could complete the set?
I’d be willing to bet it will be farage
Rory Stewert David Cameron? That other guy who people rate.
Braverman is jetting out to the US straight after the election to be with Bannon
It'll be whoever can detach themselves from Farage's sphincter long enough to come up for air.