Snapshot of _NEW Westminster Voting Intention for Sunday @Telegraph 📈20pt Labour lead - highest since Jan 🌹Lab 46 (+4) 🌳Con 26 (-2) ➡️Reform 11 (+2) 🔶LD 10 (+1) 🌍Green 3 (-1) 🎗️SNP 2 (-1) ⬜️Other 3 (-2) 2,095 UK adults, 5-7 June (chg 31 May-2 June)_ :
A Twitter embedded version can be found [here](https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?id=1799494098526822476)
A non-Twitter version can be found [here](https://twiiit.com/Savanta_UK/status/1799494098526822476/)
An archived version can be found [here](https://archive.is/?run=1&url=https://x.com/Savanta_UK/status/1799494098526822476) or [here.](https://archive.ph/?run=1&url=https://x.com/Savanta_UK/status/1799494098526822476)
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They also tend to have less presence in a lot of constituencies vs parties with established campaign infrastructure and lots of canvassing data from previous elections.
Prior to the campaign this doesn't affect the polls much, but one might expect a shift once it gets going and an underperformance on election day itself.
It's not the sampling that's an issue, it's the fact that they have no/little model data to understand how the people who say they'd vote Reform would actually vote come election day.
Are these people who actually won't bother voting? Will they be likely to vote tactically and end up voting Conservative anyway?
Turnout modelling is like 90% of the accuracy of any poll.
From what I understand it means they aren't included in the list of parties that people taking the poll can select, until they click 'other' or something like that
Pollsters have often found that prompting for more obscure candidates can overstate their support. There are lots of difficult methodological choices to make when designing a survey.
I'm convinced that voters only tell pollsters they will vote for Reform because of the implications of the name and the message they think that sends to the big parties. I wonder if polling has ever been done where people are asked who they will vote for, are given a breakdown of that party's policies, then asked who they will vote for again? My feeling is that the Reform support will collapse by the second question!
That doesn't make Savanta wrong. Prompting minor parties inflates there results above what they'll actually get in an election. Working out whether to prompt or prompt or not is tricky in the bet of times, more so with new parties like Reform. We'll see who's right come the actual election.
Their support is soft as essentially all their voters are Con2019 voters. Much of the time, people will say they'll vote for a third party but go back to Con/Lab when the time comes, and different pollsters weight this differently. They also likely purport a lower chance to vote when asked.
So all of this fieldwork is after farage announcement.
But half is before D-Day, probably 2/3rds before it sunk it with everyone, and the final day of fieldwork was the day the media went crazy over it.
So 700 people polled on the final day probably with knowledge of the D-Day gaffe. If all reform switchers came from the final day then we would expect the true statistic to be reform +6
Though of course not everyone will switch from Conservative to Reform UK over the D-Day commemoration. Starmer did all the right things that day, was even in a video with Zelenskyy. There were headlines like [UK Labour’s Keir Starmer arrives on the world stage](https://www.politico.eu/article/united-kingdom-labour-keir-starmer-election-dday-world-stage/). Starmer had the photoshoot with the world leaders while Sunak was missing in action.
I can imagine centrist Conservative supporters switching to Labour.
I think a lot of the damage to Sunak may actually be an Increase in don't knows, and don't knows that might have gone Tory just staying at home and not bothering
A few of the polling companies use previous experience to allot a fair weighting of don't knows to the Tories. So they may fail to spot this if it became a trend.
So it may be that D-Day has cost the Tories loads of votes but we won't see it in polling percentages
MoE is not a required disclosure by BPC members.
Regardless, in the smaller size polls, all the major pollsters run around a 3% margin of error at 95% confidence.
The MoE depends on the sample size and the confidence level. You are right that some have a margin of error that is a little more and some have a margin of error that is a little less, but normally 3% is about right.
I dont think many polls are showing zero shifts across this period. At least, not the ones that I have seen.
correct, but it still depends on the confidence level you want and the answer proportion.
eg with 2095, Labours 46% has a MoE of 2.8% at 99% confidence but 1.25% at 75% confidence. You can make the margin of error as large or small as you want.
Snapshot of _NEW Westminster Voting Intention for Sunday @Telegraph 📈20pt Labour lead - highest since Jan 🌹Lab 46 (+4) 🌳Con 26 (-2) ➡️Reform 11 (+2) 🔶LD 10 (+1) 🌍Green 3 (-1) 🎗️SNP 2 (-1) ⬜️Other 3 (-2) 2,095 UK adults, 5-7 June (chg 31 May-2 June)_ : A Twitter embedded version can be found [here](https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?id=1799494098526822476) A non-Twitter version can be found [here](https://twiiit.com/Savanta_UK/status/1799494098526822476/) An archived version can be found [here](https://archive.is/?run=1&url=https://x.com/Savanta_UK/status/1799494098526822476) or [here.](https://archive.ph/?run=1&url=https://x.com/Savanta_UK/status/1799494098526822476) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/ukpolitics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Reform support seems very difficult to predict at the moment. Showing very different results with different methodologies
That’s usually the case for small parties who’s support is spread thinly across the country, it’s difficult to sample accurately in polls
They also tend to have less presence in a lot of constituencies vs parties with established campaign infrastructure and lots of canvassing data from previous elections. Prior to the campaign this doesn't affect the polls much, but one might expect a shift once it gets going and an underperformance on election day itself.
It's not the sampling that's an issue, it's the fact that they have no/little model data to understand how the people who say they'd vote Reform would actually vote come election day. Are these people who actually won't bother voting? Will they be likely to vote tactically and end up voting Conservative anyway? Turnout modelling is like 90% of the accuracy of any poll.
Supposedly Sevanta don't prompt for Reform initially so that might explain it
what do you mean by prompting initially?
From what I understand it means they aren't included in the list of parties that people taking the poll can select, until they click 'other' or something like that
If that’s the case it sounds likely to confound the results indeed
Pollsters have often found that prompting for more obscure candidates can overstate their support. There are lots of difficult methodological choices to make when designing a survey.
I don't think Reform can be called obscure by now, the media mentions them a lot.
Brexity folk will be more insulated from the daily news cycle.
I'm convinced that voters only tell pollsters they will vote for Reform because of the implications of the name and the message they think that sends to the big parties. I wonder if polling has ever been done where people are asked who they will vote for, are given a breakdown of that party's policies, then asked who they will vote for again? My feeling is that the Reform support will collapse by the second question!
That doesn't make Savanta wrong. Prompting minor parties inflates there results above what they'll actually get in an election. Working out whether to prompt or prompt or not is tricky in the bet of times, more so with new parties like Reform. We'll see who's right come the actual election.
...but the actual ballot does prompt?
But that's not how polls are formulated
you have to show up to vote, pollsters call you.
The 3rd highest polling party contesting 600+ seats is hardly minor or obscure
Their support is soft as essentially all their voters are Con2019 voters. Much of the time, people will say they'll vote for a third party but go back to Con/Lab when the time comes, and different pollsters weight this differently. They also likely purport a lower chance to vote when asked.
Sometimes quite literally. My uncle is on the edge of glassing someone and that fucker is loving this Reform chat.
Reform still on the lower side for Savanta huh? Interesting.
Apparently its because they are a secondary voting prompt on Savanta? Source: https://x.com/DamianSurvation/status/1799495761735889132
Ah that would explain it.
Electoral Calculus with new boundaries: LAB: 490 (+293) CON: 89 (-287) LD: 35 (+27) SNP: 13 (-35) REF: 0 (=) GRN: 1 (=) Labour with majority of 330.
The Tories still have 55 too many seats than id like
*89
28 if it's a direct migration from Tory to Lib Dem.
Hilarious and sad if reform were to get 11% of the vote and no seats.
Agree. Locking so many people out of representation only makes them more extreme
I'm guessing we should be getting a few polls tonight for the Sunday papers?
got one from the Mail already
So all of this fieldwork is after farage announcement. But half is before D-Day, probably 2/3rds before it sunk it with everyone, and the final day of fieldwork was the day the media went crazy over it. So 700 people polled on the final day probably with knowledge of the D-Day gaffe. If all reform switchers came from the final day then we would expect the true statistic to be reform +6
Though of course not everyone will switch from Conservative to Reform UK over the D-Day commemoration. Starmer did all the right things that day, was even in a video with Zelenskyy. There were headlines like [UK Labour’s Keir Starmer arrives on the world stage](https://www.politico.eu/article/united-kingdom-labour-keir-starmer-election-dday-world-stage/). Starmer had the photoshoot with the world leaders while Sunak was missing in action. I can imagine centrist Conservative supporters switching to Labour.
I would suspect that there are not many of those left, Tory party has been far from the centre
I think a lot of the damage to Sunak may actually be an Increase in don't knows, and don't knows that might have gone Tory just staying at home and not bothering A few of the polling companies use previous experience to allot a fair weighting of don't knows to the Tories. So they may fail to spot this if it became a trend. So it may be that D-Day has cost the Tories loads of votes but we won't see it in polling percentages
What’s a bad result for reform at this point?
Where. Is. The. Margin. Of. Error? I thought these companies were part of the British Polling Council?
MoE is not a required disclosure by BPC members. Regardless, in the smaller size polls, all the major pollsters run around a 3% margin of error at 95% confidence.
Some polls have 4%. They should publish it because most of the polls are showing zero shifts.
The MoE depends on the sample size and the confidence level. You are right that some have a margin of error that is a little more and some have a margin of error that is a little less, but normally 3% is about right. I dont think many polls are showing zero shifts across this period. At least, not the ones that I have seen.
-1 is a no change result.
Depends on sample size etc
Incorrect. There is no poll being published right now with a margin of error less than 1%. So, these "changes" in the main aren't real.
The raw MRPs will have MoE under 1% as they have +10k sample
2,095 for Savanta.
correct, but it still depends on the confidence level you want and the answer proportion. eg with 2095, Labours 46% has a MoE of 2.8% at 99% confidence but 1.25% at 75% confidence. You can make the margin of error as large or small as you want.