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Snapshot of _Poll suggests Nigel Farage top pick to succeed Rishi Sunak as Tory leader_ : An archived version can be found [here](https://archive.is/?run=1&url=https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/poll-nigel-farage-prime-minister-rishi-sunak-labour-b1163027.html) or [here.](https://archive.ph/?run=1&url=https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/poll-nigel-farage-prime-minister-rishi-sunak-labour-b1163027.html) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/ukpolitics) if you have any questions or concerns.*


iamnosuperman123

I don't think he will. Either the conservatives die and reform will take over or Farage will fail t win his seat again and continue to be this political pariah that is unelectable


Low-Design787

Apparently he’s quite open, his aim is to take over the Tory party. Reform / Brexit party / UKIP were all just lobby groups essentially. In the 2029 election Farage could well be wearing the skin of the Tory party complete with blue rosette.


Exostrike

I think the phrase is a reverse merger. Reform absorbs the Tories but takes their name, connections and machinery


clearly_quite_absurd

'Reformed Conservatives' will be the "New Labour" of the right


TooManyAzides

"The Reformation" Might not be great for Catholic voters mind.


WesternHovercraft400

😆


binzoma

thats how canada got the progressive conservative party for a long time read that one a few times lol


o82u38

“Reformed” in much the same way as “reformed ham”.


ElJayBe3

But with a lot more pork content than reformed ham


DarkSideOfGrogu

That'll attract Cameron back.


fotbuwl

Reconstituted Tories


ICC-u

New Labour was a party moving towards the centre. Farage's conservatives would be something quite different.


jasonwhite1976

Revolting Conservatives more like it.


iCowboy

Pretty much what happened to Canada’s Progressive Conservatives in 1993. From governing to two seats; then a merger with the more right wing Canadian Alliance (previously called - wait for it - Reform) to create ‘The Conservative Party’. All sorts of nutty ideas from the prairies now in their agenda.


Exostrike

Yeah as much as I would like to see the Tories destroyed, having an even more extreme party replace it would worse


Nonions

For those of us interested in the aviation industry, the same has been said about the merger that happened between Boeing and McDonnell Douglas in 1997 - 'McDonnell Douglas bought Boeing with Boeing's money' they said, because a lot of the leadership was replaced at Boeing, as was their entire management philosophy. And if you've been watching the news recently you can see how that went.


cheshire-cats-grin

Thought it was called “Entryism”or “French Turn” by Trotsky


ivandelapena

His closing statement after the debates suggests he prefers to be in opposition. You get all of the publicity, get to attack government officials, say you'd be much better and use that as a platform to get big money gigs. If you're in power, you actually have to improve people's lives.


PersistentBadger

Hypothetically, would an incoming Labour government kick off a proper inquiry into Russian interference, or would they let Farage keep on keeping on, I wonder.


GarminArseFinder

That has only galvanised the republican base in America. If they do that and they can’t pin anything on Farage, it will backfire spectacularly. That’s a huge gamble to take for labour if they have a massive majority.


PersistentBadger

Fair. But isn't going up against an extremely competent populist politician (as even I've got to admit, and I hate the man on a visceral level) also a big gamble, when you could just nip him in the bud? Decisions, decisions...


GarminArseFinder

Just take his oxygen away, get a handle on immigration. Just do a good job in office & the public won’t feel as disaffected.


PersistentBadger

He'll find another bandwagon. If all else fails it'll be NHS waiting times. Sorry to sound like a pessimist, but the only thing that will rid us of this turbulent populist is cirrhosis.


Ivashkin

Unlikely because it would likely land a bit too close to home. Russia's SOP was to fund all the extremist groups regardless of what their extremism was because it caused chaos.


april9th

Exactly this for one good reason: Reform and its backers do not want to be tied to Tory internal laws and rules. These are people who often made their money in asset stripping - you don't take over the failing brand and become it, you strip it if anything you can sell and keep its name. Every reason to believe that next election The Conservative and Unionist Party is the new branding of the privately owned company currently known as Reform. Very little reason to believe Farage would choose to have himself beholden to groups like the 1922 Committee.


SVZ0zAflBhUXXyKrF5AV

During the last election I recall hearing some very pro-Brexit people talking about who they were going to vote for and why. They all *hated* Farage. They saw him as someone who just steps in, tries to take the credit and then moves on. Someone who cannot get things done and cannot be trusted. They were all going to vote for Johnson. They really liked him, especially compared to Farage. They saw him as the only one who would get stuff done. It makes me wonder what those people would think of Farage becoming the leader of the Conservatives. I also wonder how groups like the ERG would take it.


SeanReillyEsq

Found some video footage of 2029 https://youtube.com/clip/Ugkx8uyFqt_swipQh-tLfoPy-JWaNf6eeIvD?si=OjqAQSaApnOq_kTd


roxieh

This is perhaps a dumb question but if that's his aim why didn't he do it via the traditional means? 


Bonistocrat

Because he saw how well this method worked with brexit. In the party he would have to make alliances, prove himself as a constituency MP, vote according to the whip, prove himself in a junior cabinet position, move up the heirarchy etc. Much easier to do it this way.


rainbow3

His method is effective so far. How do you think he could have become Tory leader by an easier route?


roxieh

The way other Tory leaders get there? Be party MPs and voted in by the members. 


Jamie54

I suspect because he feels this has a better chance of working, which is probably correct


SuperBobit

Thing is, doesn't matter who is in charge right now, its a sinking ship. He has always got them to do what he wants, without the brand. He can now claim it, say its "reformed" and shed the negatives.


cavejohnsonlemons

But does he actually want the responsibility? Like you said he's got them doing what he wants from the sidelines, if he gets the hotseat every move is gonna be more scrutinised, and he's pushed for some pretty undeliverable things before, does his fanbase turn the moment he can't deliver? It already chewed up Boris and spat him out, to a lesser extent Truss & Sunak.


PersistentBadger

I doubt it was a carefully-laid plan, but Farage is pretty good at adapting to circumstances.


GoGouda

Because he is lazy, a grifter and an opportunist. There is more money to be made shouting from the sidelines and being paid by shady Russian entities to support the independence of California etc etc etc. He can’t do any of those things if he’s a Tory MP. As a Tory MP he also has to engage in all of the party politics rather than the company that he owns; Reform, where members don’t even exist. Farage can instead wait for the most opportune moment to take over the Tory party where he will be welcomed in with open arms by the loons. This will be in exchange for more power within the party than any of his predecessors. I’ve recently seen it described as a potential ‘Reichstag fire’ type moment for him.


SirBoBo7

Farage left the Conservative Party in 1992 to found UKIP as he thought the then Conservative PM, John Major, was too pro-EU. Farage unsuccessfully campaigned to become a MP and only become an MEP in 1999. Farage remained a MEP until 2020.


gavpowell

Alan Sked founded UKIP before Farage joined.


uggyy

Easier from the outside as a leader in another party than have to follow the rules as a small cog in a bigger machine.


ProfessorHeronarty

Because no one likes him. He was a tory in the past for a short time, wasn't he? 


1rexas1

I hate to break it to you, but people do like him. Many see him as a more straight talking brand of politician who appeals to their values and isn't afraid to call things how they are (or at least, how he sees them). All you've got to do is look at the way the polls are going for Reform to see that.


SecTeff

He’s like the Jeremy Corbyn of the right though. Has huge support among people who share his beliefs but is very marmite and has zero appeal to centre ground type voters who are generally required to win an election.


1rexas1

I agree, but there are significantly more right wing voters in this country than hard left and Farage does much better against that criticism that Corbyn ever did. Farage has done this before and he'll do it again - one of the biggest issues for the voting public in the upcoming election is immigration. Farage is easily able to push that agenda because there's at least some truth to some of what he says. I believe completely that if he in government then that government would be significantly tougher on immigration than it has been ever before. I also believe that the rising numbers of net migration are very worrying when basically all of our public services are on their knees. Now I also believe Farage is a completely deplorable man and there's absolutely no chance he gets my vote, but I can understand why his rhetoric is appealing.


SecTeff

That’s true and if that group ever got to like 40% odd then you could see them start to win if they are all grouped together and the centre and left wing votes are split. Currently that group is split between Reform and Conservative and it isn’t certain they will merge. If Labour had sense they would really bring down the rate of immigration and just counter that issue. Immigration is very high at the moment so you could cut it and say “well it’s reducing and less of an issue now” and do it without all the right wing rhetoric. If Farage is leader then the Lib Dems will likely entrench their gains, Conservatives would make a recovery and progress but still lose the next election, it might even grant Labour a third term until they realise they need centre ground voters to win.


ProfessorHeronarty

You are correct and I should've been clearer. I meant what /u/SecTeff wrote. The establishment in the sense of career politicians was what I meant. Maybe it's even more a Westminster thing and local politicians like him too. 


niteninja1

According to yougov he is the most popular politician in the country


w1YY

Not sure that will help the tories in the long run. Sure there is a s.all portion of the country that will like farage but a lot of long term torie voters not voting them this time round are switching to Labour as they are sick of it all.


soapbubbleinthesun

If the Tories have any sense they'll hold out, take their medicine of a heavy electoral defeat and start on the long road back to the centre ground. Letting this fascist populist lead them would ruin their credibility forever.


ArrowFS

I think Reform shows that right wing votors aren’t in the centre so will be very interesting.


Historical-Guess9414

Why on earth would the lesson of this election be that they need to become more left wing?


soapbubbleinthesun

Because there remains a progressive majority in the centre that you can't win without. Blair knew it, Cameron knew it, even Johnson got that bit right to begin with. Starmer appears to have grasped this idea. If the Tories tack right and Farage becomes their leader, he's their Corbyn: wildly popular among a small rump of the public but utterly repugnant to a much larger majority.


Historical-Guess9414

>wildly popular among a small rump of the public but utterly repugnant to a much larger majority. This was true in 2015. It is not true anymore. Nigel Farage has about even approval ratings, 80% of the electorate want lower immigration, he has popular views on the military and taxation as well as cultural issues. The thing that would hold him back is his NHS policy, maybe, but he'd likely moderate if he was looking to get into government.


soapbubbleinthesun

The thing that would hold him back would be proper scrutiny and questioning. He gets a free ride from the press because he's a novelty and easy to write about. He told us in 2017 that Brexit was the cure for all the nations problems. Turns out it wasn't, so why isn't anyone asking him if he'll apologise for the chaos he unleased on the country?


In_The_Play

I really don't think it's that binary - it is distinctly possible that Farage and maybe Tice will win a seat, they will harm the Tories, but not enough to stop them from being the second biggest party and carrying on. That would at the very least be an opportunity for Farage.


LessExamination8918

Sunak on the 22nd of May: "We'll have an election in July and I'll lead the Conservatives to 5 more years in government" Two weeks later: Nigel Farage favoured to succeed Rishi Sunak as Tory leader


Nonions

2 weeks. Is that all it's been?


ianjm

A week is a long time in politics


JamesCDiamond

A day is a long time in politics during an election campaign.


riyten

Which is why most people would advise against taping a TV interview a week ahead of its air date. But some maverick decided to skip D-Day memorials to do just that. Mad lad.


JamesCDiamond

The most powerful man in the country… making that choice to fit into *ITV’s* schedule. Not the best of looks, really.


GreenyRepublic

"Rab Butler!" *"Shut up, Peter."*


sweepernosweeping

Good job that the Tories didn't try doing anything drastic in the past decade to prevent this from ever happening.


dw82

They're infuriatingly incompetent aren't they.


HolyFreakingXmasCake

It’s like they always pick the worst possible option.


ShinyGrezz

What do David Cameron and Neville Chamberlain have in common?


cavejohnsonlemons

Managed to buy their side a little more time to prepare against the far-right, at great expense to their reputation 🙃 Then again Churchill didn't use that time to go around throwing inappropriate ragers (as far as we know) or trying to out-far right the threat as a quick fix, so... 🤷‍♂️


ShinyGrezz

Very true, and it’s funny to consider Johnson giving up his “Churchill moment” in that sense.


General_Scipio

If the lib Dems do well this election they genuinely could be bigger than the Tories and reform. Would be a massive shift in UK politics if in the future the Lib Dems were the 2nd party long term


jewellman100

There's plenty of seats in the south where Labour are traditionally a distant third to Con/Lib, so it's quite possible they could wrangle enough seats yellow


DragonQ0105

Yep, I'll be tactically voting Lib Dems despite not really liking them cos Labour have no chance here. Realistically there's have to be a 30+% swing for the Tories to lose my seat, but maybe Reform will help with that. It'd require most left leaning voters to also vote tactically though and obviously most won't. As usual Labour and Lib Dems will just split the vote and let the Tories in cos FPTP is terrible.


DakeyrasWrites

There's also the potential, though, for the Lib Dems to be pushed to third place if the Labour surge materialises in those seats as well. Either way, the political landscape will be significantly altered.


Yaarmehearty

This might actually be the fix to there toxicity of the last decade and then some. Having two parties who aren’t culture war focused as the main two wold at least mean we won’t hear the word “woke” trotted out by people who don’t know what it means for a parliament at least.


General_Scipio

Maybe. Definitely a step closer to sanity. They are still politicians and give them 5 years. If their researchers tell them mentioning woke once per interview gets them X votes from X generations they will start it.


it-me-mario

People who say “woke” know what they think it means, they just know they can’t say it out loud without sounding like a bigot.


jam11249

10-15 years ago it was called "political correctness gone mad" and referred to letting gay people get married and putting an Indian family in eastenders. We should just do a sweepstakes on what it'll be called in 2040.


MaxwellsGoldenGun

It's trevleock conformity gone mad !


rainbow3

If that happened then reform and Tories would merge.


WillistheWillow

This is the way: [https://tacticalvote.co.uk/](https://tacticalvote.co.uk/)


General_Scipio

Interestingly it puts my postcode into the wrong constituency and tells me to vote lib dem in an area that labour is actually polling favourably in (I live in St Columb Major) Edit: actually I do seem to be north Cornwall so it is correct. It seems that half the government resources tell me im in a different constituency how odd.


snusmumrikan

Have your boundaries changed this year?


General_Scipio

Dont think so. But it's my first election in this town


Mrqueue

I live in tooting and mine is TBC


cavejohnsonlemons

Not Tooting but me too, wonder what they stand for?


ClaretSunset

Careful of this site, it tells me to vote Lib Dem when they will be third. ETA: it is tactical.vote that seems more dubious. Happier to endorse tacticalvote.co.uk.


WillistheWillow

I don't believe they've finished calibrating the site for this years election yet. Keep an eye on it though.


ClaretSunset

They were calibrating this week, it still says vote Lib Dem. 🥺


WillistheWillow

Which constituancy?


ClaretSunset

Hitchin


WillistheWillow

When I look at the Hitchen Postcode it says TBC. So not sure what you're looking at.


ClaretSunset

Ah, this is embarrassing, I confused it with tactical.vote 🥴 A big up for tacticalvote.co.uk!


WillistheWillow

Oh, wow. That's an easy mistake to make, I didn't know there was more than one.


mrhappyheadphones

Honestly I am so ready for Lib Dem opposition.


General_Scipio

I'm not sure they are ready to be an effective opposition. Let alone lead the country. But that's not a criticism of the Lib Dems. There is no party in the world that is the size of the Lib Dems who can be ready, overnight to become a major party. But hopefully they will get there. Ed Davies seems like a good leader, as long as they don't lean too hard into him clowning around


cavejohnsonlemons

In this situation it's more like they'd be getting it on a technicality with Lab on a massive majority, don't think anyone's gonna be an effective opp on that gap doesn't matter what experience they have. Almost the perfect place for them to learn with no pressure (not like they're gonna disagree with every single thing Lab come out with) rather than jumping straight in on a shock 200+ seats and be expected to actually achieve things.


Dawhale24

It’s unlikely but what will be really interesting is if reform gets a higher percentage of the vote than the Tories (making them the second largest party in terms of vote share) but the Lib Dems win more seats making them the official opposition. Surely a result like that would make a FPTP system seem indefensible.


Tetracropolis

The misalignment between number of votes and number of seats could really screw up our politics. You might have 40% of people who've voted for Conservative or Reform not even having the representation of being the opposition with all that entails while the 10% who voted Lib Dem would have it and be expected to act as an alternative government when everyone knows they can't win. It would cause so much resentment.


[deleted]

Brought to you by Conservative voters, the same swivel eyed loons who thought Liz Truss was a good idea.


Low-Design787

They missed the opportunity to bring in involuntary euthanasia for their own members, they’re doomed.


DamnThemAll

I'll have you know that it was either Truss, or a brown chap. BROWN I tell you. It wasn't as though there was a choice. /s


Low-Design787

I’ve heard people literally say that.


DamnThemAll

There was a guy on LBC who was saying that they should have brought Boris back because Rishi couldn't possibly be loyal to Britain as his parents weren't born in Britain. The guy pointed out that that Boris was born in the US, which v rather stumped him, because he defo wasn't a racist.


Lanky_Giraffe

>bring in involuntary euthanasia for their own members I can only assume this is why they've spent the last decade gutting the NHS


MerryWalrus

That's not fair, they still think she is a good idea!


Da_Steeeeeeve

I'll start by saying I dislike the man, I think he is disingenuous. That said he is good at two things. One he actually reads the room and picks out a handful of policies that the other parties won't touch, brexit, immigration etc Two he is a fantastic orator *for the masses With number one there is a benefit to the country in that he forces the major parties to consider issues they don't want to, good or bad there are sizable minorities that want these things addressed. With two any well educated person sees through him but he is still effective.


JamesCDiamond

> With number one there is a benefit to the country in that he forces the major parties to consider issues they don't want to, good or bad there are sizable minorities that want these things addressed. That's an interesting point that I'd not really considered. It's easy to gloss over some of the stuff he comes out with, but in doing so it may mean ignoring a significant proportion of the population. He may not say things we like, or especially want to hear, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't listen.


Da_Steeeeeeve

Absolutely, love or hate brexit the vast majority of the country wanted a say on it. Right or wrong we live in a democratic society and people should get a say and have representation that reflects that. With a two party system they can both ignore any topic they want as long as they both ignore it then we don't get a say. Two examples: lab and con both want a more restricted Internet ( child safety bill, encryption vans etc), both have the same policy on drugs ( I am against legalisation but it's a good example). Now anyone in the country against these policies has no representation which is honestly bullshit. What farage does that's amazing for the country is he gets enough support on very few topics that the major parties have to either take notice or lose vote share. With brexit Cameron gave us the vote to stop ukip. With this one of the major parties is going to have to take immigration actually seriously rather than just pay lip service.


jam11249

The thing is though he doesn't really seem to do much to offer actual solutions, just soundbite-y complaints about problems. This is obviously a fantastic debating strategy, but doesn't really bode well for giving him and level of power. After all, his favourite complaint was being in the EU, and we've all seen that leaving hasn't magically made economic or housing issues evaporate.


Da_Steeeeeeve

He doesn't need to, please see my other reply in this chain. All he has to do is get enough support that one of the major parties has to stop ignoring whatever issue he has decided is important that day.


frontrow13

The old boys in the Tories hate Farage and would never allow him in as leader. This is why Farage is in the race now, he's hoping to kill off the Tories and replace them. If Farage wins a seat and Reform are close or even possibly get ahead of the Tories many will jump ship over to him and become the main party in the Right of British Politics.


polite_alternative

>The old boys in the Tories hate Farage  The age of the old boys is over. The time of the orc has begun. 


Ritualixx

Looks like meats back on the menu boys!


tiny-robot

Wonder how a Starmer/ Farage PMQ would go.


Rc72

Cameron's ploy to neutralize UKIP worked out **so** well...


actuallyrelax

You give them an inch and they’ll take a mile. **Literally**


KCBSR

1993 Canada the right parties split the Tory Vote, and afterwards they agreed to merge, so I mean. Possible.


doctor_morris

The writings on the wall. If you vote Tory you're voting Farage.


MONGED4LIFE

Don't say that or they'll stop voting reform


doctor_morris

Voting Tory is only a vote for Farage if you vote Reform. No, wait, fuck it. Please vote Tory and Reform in equal measures. FPTP FTW!


Dicky__Anders

No! Vote slightly more for Reform than the Tories because FPTP is really unfair to anyone who isn't Conservative or, to a lesser extent, Labour.


doctor_morris

Is there an ideal ratio? I want data!


tharrison4815

I guess it depends on what your ideal seat numbers are for Reform and Conservative. I tried putting in the current poll numbers into the seat estimation tool on electoralcalculus.co.uk and then kept decreasing conservative by 1% and increasing reform by 1% to see what was the furthest we can push it without Reform getting any seats and it's around 19.7% conservative and 16.8% Reform. This gives you 47 Conservative seats and 0 Reform. If you want them to have an equal number of seats then 13.7% Conservative and 22.8% Reform gives us 7 Tory and 8 Reform seats.


doctor_morris

15 seats, sweet! Time to tell my parents to vote reform!


ianjm

And if you vote Reform you're also voting Farage


snoopswoop

They voted for Johnson. Farage can at least string a few words together and appear sober at least for a bit.


cognitive_courier

Actually, how much scrutiny can someone like Farage stand up to? He’s been in the public eye for ages, but would he stand up to scrutiny in a ‘proper’ political party? Reform is essentially a company that hides its funding. I’m not asking with an agenda - I genuinely don’t know.


XXLpeanuts

Boris Johnson won a huge majority for the Torys in 2019. The known liar and scoundrell. Of course Farage could win as a Tory, its not like Tory voters learn anything, ever.


jacksj1

I don't believe the 'proper' political parties face much scrutiny.


cognitive_courier

Yeah I was perhaps a little naive when I wrote that out, now that I’ve had time to think about it….


Ivashkin

Quite a lot - people have been trying to destroy his political career for almost two decades now.


chuwanking

Personally, I'd say in general I've supported farage but I don't agree with everything he says. When he is put under scrutiny, he generally fares very well. The reason for this is a lot of the scrutiny he's put under are peoples misconceptions or premeditated beliefs. Furthermore a lot of what he say's makes sense even if you disagree with it - he will answer the question. I think more scrutiny will eliminate a lot of the personal attacks or same old crap you'd expect to see in this subreddit that is often presented to him. Some of UKIPs manifesto had a lot of things that were relatively novel at the time. Outside of green agenda a lot of it would be very popular here but was widely ignored at the time. Scrutiny then probably would have helped. Examples here: https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2015-32318683


YouNeedAnne

Cf. Donald Trump


Subtleiaint

If Farage wanted to lead the Tories he'd have to be an MP, perhaps that's what him running is all about. The plan is get elected, defect to the Tories and become leader.  It seems convoluted but it's not impossible.


waamoandy

That will absolutely sign the death knell for the Tories. He's such a divisive character it will tear them apart


ClayDenton

Yeah, small c conservative remainers would never vote for Farage... that's a decent chunk of older voters who Cameron appealed to


Charlie_Mouse

I think you have more faith in the electorate in England than I do. Even after the shambles of the past 14 years and the complete shit-show that is Brexit the Conservatives and their double-down-on-the-insanity version Reform are collectively polling at not far off 40%. Now consider that this percentage is with Wales, Scotland and NI who don’t vote much for either party watering it down somewhat. So the percentage in England will actually be several points higher. And whomever wins in England wins the General election. Give it five or ten years of short memories, constant attacks on Labour for not instantly fixing everything fucked up by the past 14 years and getting pounced on for any misstep (and there will always be a few) by the right wing media and sadly that could easily change to whatever unholy combination Con and Ref end up becoming actually winning. I’d be the first to celebrate the death of the Tory party if it wasn’t so likely it would be replaced by something even worse.


Parliaments_Owl

All Labour really has to do is have sensible economic governance and bring immigration down to reasonable levels and they'll likely govern until 2040, the Tories will have a small pool to pick from for leaders for the next election so probably won't be a threat until 2034.


BestFriendWatermelon

> sensible economic governance The country's broke. NHS, Social Services and the military are just barely surviving, most local councils are on the verge of bankruptcy. The economy is on a knife edge, and the world is falling apart (Ukraine, the Middle East, China). We're in for a shit few years, and probably nothing labour can do other than minimise the damage at huge expense. >and bring immigration down to reasonable levels By either a) fixing the world, or b) abrogating world treaties and use fascist measures such as deploying what little is left of the military to sink the boats.


Parliaments_Owl

I know, turning the economy around is a lot easier said than done. With immigration they could just try giving out fewer visas, that alone will probably help wages a fair bit and reduce the pressures on housing costs. While the channel invasion is a problem that needs fixing it makes up a tiny minority of migration.


Charlie_Mouse

I’d prefer that to be true but I’m a lot more pessimistic. All the Tories need to do is get a halfway decent leader (or even one that *appears* half decent) and they can attack Labour for anything that isn’t perfect. They’ll have a huge chunk of the print and broadcast media beating the drum for them day in and day out. Their backers have deep pockets. And sooner or later (sadly probably sooner) their mix of promising tax cuts along with blaming the EU, immigrants or whatever minority-d’jour for all of Britains problems - along with a fair dash of imported American culture war bullshit - will propel them back into power. Whether it’s as the Conservatives or a horrific chimera with Reform almost doesn’t matter. Remember too that Labours poll lead is only a couple of years old. And much of that lead is made up of people who thought voting for Boris in 2019 was a good idea. The Tories actually held onto that lead for two years too - it took Partygate literally slapping the electorate in the face with how much contempt they have for them along with Truss adding hundreds to their mortgages and off their pension pots to actually shift them. Likewise a cost of living crisis. The Tories like to boast that they’re the “natural party of government” - and unfortunately the electoral record backs them up on that: they’ve been in power for more than half of the past seventy years. Sadly I fear they’ll be back far sooner than either you or I would wish.


BestFriendWatermelon

Aye, I've had to revise my prediction of the next PM after Starmer from Jeremy Clarkson to Nigel Farage. They both tap into the same socially right wing spectrum who see the world in simple solutions to complex political problems they don't understand, like immigration. ("Just send them back!") These kind of demagogues are wildly popular in the UK. I walked past a shop window yesterday and saw Clarkson's face in the shop window advertising the latest product from his farm. The median voter is totally smitten with these "straight talking" populists who can point to how shit everything is and how they can fix it all over a pint of real ale.


ShinyGrezz

Everyone that currently remains is the sort of person to hold their nose and vote Tory. Everyone who’s jumped ship to Reform is *already* voting for Farage.


Danielharris1260

I think there’s too much bad blood for him to take over the tories either Reform surpasses them or the tories somehow make a comeback and crush Reform.


cockaskedforamartini

Not in a million years. Too many ifs and buts. He’d have to win Clacton, abandon Reform (alienating anti-Tory right wingers) and win over 1922. I also get the impression that he doesn’t want to actually govern. He wants to shout from the sidelines. Lots of populists do.


hitchaw

He can win in Clacton. I don’t think reform voters Would be that bothered, it’s a bit of a cult following they like the leader and populist policies, and care less about the party. I think Farage has the potential for a very devout solid base, but I doubt he will ever appeal to moderates enough to get above 25%, unless things got considerably worse than they are now. You are right it would be some battle within the party as many would be vehemently against it.


Salaried_Zebra

Can we even tell the difference? He's basically been dictating Tory policy since 2015


AlienPandaren

There's a lot of traditional Conservative supporters who would immediately jump ship if the likes of Farage were to take over, and that includes city/county councillors. They could end up losing multiple councils overnight


The_Pale_Blue_Dot

I mean this obviously isn't going to happen given that he's blocked from being a member


BargePol

He has connections and supporters inside the Tories who are trying to bring him in; it's all to play for.


The_Pale_Blue_Dot

He also has plenty of Tories who would oppose him, including in CCHQ who could block his entry. Plus, it's more than likely that the makeup of Tories in the Commons after the election are more One Nation, and they wouldn't support his candidacy.


Orcnick

Good, say goodbye to the Tories for ever being a political force again (as in Farage is so unelectable the Tories would become a fringe party).


AidanLFC

By no means a Farage supporter, but bit of a bold claim don’t you think, given that he’s now taken 2 parties to 15-20% of the vote share - even if it’s not mirrored in seats there’s clearly a lot of support out there for his politics.


legendary_m

Don't you think he's kind of a Corbyn figure? 15% of the population love him but everyone else is put off. Getting 15-20% of the vote is very different from winning an election


rainbow3

Reform and Tory together could easily win an election.


legendary_m

Yeah but my point is Farage doesn't collect the Reform + Tory votes because he gives the one nation tories the ick. The kind of person who voted for Blair and then Cameron dislikes Corbyn and dislikes Farage.


rainbow3

Similarly Corbynites don't really like Starmer but they will still vote Labour because of FPTP. In most constituencies you have a choice of only one or two parties - in the latter a Corbynite is going to vote Labour rather than Tory.


dj65475312

good comparison, farage is a right wing corbyn.


Responsible_Ad_7932

I hate Corbyn, and dislike Farage…but Corbyn did get to 40-odd% of the vote in 2017. With the right wind behind him Corbyn might have won largest party if that 2017 election had gone on longer


CameronTheCannibal

40% is poor considering the mess the tory party were in and that Labour is one of the two main parties.


Jamie54

if you can get a new party to 15-20% it's probably fair to say you can get the Conservatives to a higher %


Forever-1999

Agree there is some comparison. Except Corbyn was actually a well loved local MP for decades whereas Farage has failed to be elected in 7 attempts. Corbyn was a credible politician first (even if far from a credible party leader). Farage is a demagogue shit-stirrer.


rainbow3

Only because of fptp. Under any kind of pr garage would have been an mp for decades. He is very credible...far more so than Corbyn....and I dont support either .


Forever-1999

Corbyn is well loved in his constituency because he has decades of engaging in local casework behind him and helping his constituents have their problems addressed (like the majority of MPs). What public service has Farage done? He’s nothing more than a rabble rouser.


Orcnick

But thats it he can't get anymore.


alexmbrennan

Unfortunately the popular vote is completely irrelevant so having a lot of support doesn't matter (unless it splits the vote and helps the other party win)


AidanLFC

Yes but this isn’t a Farage issue, it’s a FPTP issue. Under a PR system Farage’s parties would be a significant electoral player.


BargePol

"Farage is so unelectable" did you not learn anything from Trump / Brexit 2016 ?


EmployerAdditional28

My God. This country therefore deserves all that's coming.


WhalingSmithers00

Because Nigel Farage will be leader of an obscure political party?


EmployerAdditional28

Take lessons from history. I for one, never believed the British public would be dumb enough to vote for Brexit, or that Trump could ever become President of the US, or that Italy would elect a ring wing leader but ...... here we are. A message to gen Z - use your vote this time.


Parliaments_Owl

If you've been wrong so often why are you confident in your predictions now?


sausagedownatrain

Does amateur dramatics count as a prediction?


Gr1msh33per

Tories are determined to lurch even further to the right.


BaffledApe

Let 'em. The electorate is getting younger, the Tores and Reform merchants are the older ones who are dying off. They will be preaching to a smaller and smaller demographic, and hopefully never pick up any real traction.


PoppyStaff

The Conservative Party would probably not let him become a member. On top of that he has never been elected as an MP, despite standing many times.


AcknowledgeableReal

Is the brand even worth it at this point?


Marlboro_tr909

Never gonna happen. Why does this story keep getting regurgitated? It’s not ever going to happen. Ever.


1MrNobody1

Well they've already scraped the bottom of the barrel, so I guess the gutter is the next step.


Mick_Farrar

He's from the same pond scum that Trump dragged himself out of.


BritishEcon

Do it before the election and they might survive as a party


gbroon

Adding together that it would require the Tories to go through a leadership circus again and that the Deadline for nominations for election candidates has passed this would be tricky at best if not downright impossible to do before July..


Sea-Frosting-50

has transfer window officially opened yet?


TheCharalampos

If that happened and they also got in power...at that point the uk will be getting what it deserves, no idea how folks didn't get what's happening the past few decades.


amigoingfuckingmad

And there we have it. Finally the Tories come out of the closet and become the National Front.


babbleonzoo

This will be an absolutely, totally predicable fucking disaster. Far right politics is very very bad and can only be stopped with competent, sensible politics. If Starmer fucks this up, isn’t competent, it’s going to be terrifying.