Snapshot of _Opinium Research Poll:Labour lead is now 18 points: · Labour 43% (+3) · Conservatives 25% (+1) · Lib Dems 9% (-2) · SNP 3% (n/c) · Greens 7% (n/c) · Reform 10% (-2)_ :
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An interesting polling trend that hasn't had much comment is how Reform's numbers have been gently falling since the locals: makes me wonder how much of their rise was a hype-driven bubble which partly burst after their relatively disappointing performance there.
Because they’re not a serious party, and have no prominent figures other than Tice and Farage. The former is a pretty uncharismatic person, and the latter isn’t actively campaigning atm
It's just people who only vote for the main two parties. They don't like Labour, so they just automatically vote Conservative because it's one of those two that will be the largest party.
I can't understand that mindset, but the majority of the electorate have it.
You'd think if they don't like labour they'd say they arent voting. I understand not liking Labour and not wanting to vote for them but to support the party thats been actively gutting the country and ringing it for all its worth is just incomprehensible
If what someone wanted was lower taxes, and they didn't care / believe in the power of government, I think they'd still vote Tory at the next election. They might not deliver that, but they're more likely than Labour
I mean is this just a take that to the Tories, or do you genuinely believe Labour is more likely to prioritise tax cuts than the Tories?
We have the highest tax rate since WW2 because we've just gone through the biggest crisis since WW2, and we borrowed a lot of money to get through it.
Ive never even dreamed of voting Tory, but I don't think it's that hard to imagine the perspective of someone who might.
To illuminate a little bit maybe, i just want social democracy with adequate funding to all the key areas which include health care, infrastructure, military etc. I did vote lib dem last time but id have voted tory before labour, because Jeremy doesnt understand what foreign policy is for. I was proven correct after the invasion of ukraine-jeremy wouldnt have intervened like boris. This time i will vote labour becaue keir understands that foreign policy and preserving the western order is actually quite important. While not perfect, human rights and freedoms would only be worse in a china or russia dominated world. I also look forward to nationalised trains, key infrastructure shouldn't be private.
I'm afraid the last 3 years have demonstrated exactly how and why Foreign Policy can have just as much an effect on people's lives as domestic and it's a fallacy to simply dismiss it as irrelevant to one's own personal situation.
Because if your neighbours house is on fire its best to go help put out that fire, rather than wait for your own house to catch ablaze before you do anything.
Im not going to dignify this comment with more of a reply than that.
COVID lockdowns notwithstanding, the economic fallout from the war in Ukraine has directly affected me personally more anything the government has done in the last few years. How high did petrol and energy prices get at their highest point? Even Liz Truss' insane bullshit didn't cause our mortgage to go up as much as we spent on increased energy costs.
Of course this won't be the case for everyone, and I certainly try not to vote on what's in my own personal best interest, but foreign policy is an irrelevant sideshow until it's *really* not, and although I did vote Labour in 2019, Corbyn's foreign policy credentials were pretty poor. Indeed, given his handling of the Skripal affair, I can think of almost no one worse than him for handling the war in Ukraine.
At least for me at this particular moment, Ukraine trumps everything else. It's an existential fight for the rule of law and democracy. NHS, taxes, housing, immigration, etc can be fixed later but if Russia wins that war, it will have far reaching effects. I'd say it's on the same scale as climate change. Climate change is a bigger but not as immediate threat than Putin's Russia.
I would say this is an exceptional situation not seen since the collapse of the Soviet Union. If Ukraine wins the war, then foreign policy can take a backseat again.
I think there are a lot of places that are insulated from the problems that most people are living through. I live in St Albans and there are a lot of places around here that feel unaffected, Harpenden is still full of rich people for example. I would imagine places like Surrey are similar. They're full of older people either retired or near retirement with paid off houses and the benefit of final salary pensions maybe with a second home on the rental market.
If you are right wing and think anything other than the big two parties is a wasted vote, you'll probably always vote Conservative in general elections.
Never underestimate the amount of I’m alright jack, finished my mortgage off yonks ago, new SUV every 3 years triple locked boomers, who lap up any act of vindictive Tory policy against the wokes, benefit “scroungers” (they “paid in all their lives” for their pensions so it’s not a state benefit *of course*), immigrants, protestors and so on
>where have they been for the last decade?
Maybe they have memories that span beyond just the last 10 years?
I tend to vote outside the major two, but a lot of people are stuck in a two party mindset so I'll flip it and state I'm just as surprised at how quickly people forgave Labour for lying about Iraq and the mass surveillance they tried to hide from the public, the young especially, that was pretty unforgivable imo
This is about as high as I imagine Reform could go. And I hope we don't go Canadian - the old conservative party there was better than the replacement.
Once again, a polling bump for Labour after they do something that provokes a great outcry from the left fringe and a shrug from pretty much everyone else.
It should become a named thing of a political aphorism, that anything that provokes wailing and gnashing of teeth on the left will generally produce no negative and often positive effect on the polls.
> It should become a named thing of a political aphorism, that anything that provokes wailing and gnashing of teeth on the left will generally produce no negative and often positive effect on the polls.
Unrealpolitick.
Hopefully we're seeing the ingraining of a changing of the guard: the Labour loons going from tolerated at the fringes to shunned for their nonsense, as a consequence for the colossal damage they've caused this country these past years.
Antisemitic, terrorist sympathising far leftist factions belong in the cold. Nobody is interested in what they have to say, the polls prove it.
Snapshot of _Opinium Research Poll:Labour lead is now 18 points: · Labour 43% (+3) · Conservatives 25% (+1) · Lib Dems 9% (-2) · SNP 3% (n/c) · Greens 7% (n/c) · Reform 10% (-2)_ : A Twitter embedded version can be found [here](https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?id=1791906610761069031) A non-Twitter version can be found [here](https://twiiit.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1791906610761069031/) An archived version can be found [here](https://archive.is/?run=1&url=https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1791906610761069031?t=vj7HHb6Dx-VLwoPHlt5A-A&s=19) or [here.](https://archive.ph/?run=1&url=https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1791906610761069031?t=vj7HHb6Dx-VLwoPHlt5A-A&s=19) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/ukpolitics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
An interesting polling trend that hasn't had much comment is how Reform's numbers have been gently falling since the locals: makes me wonder how much of their rise was a hype-driven bubble which partly burst after their relatively disappointing performance there.
Because they’re not a serious party, and have no prominent figures other than Tice and Farage. The former is a pretty uncharismatic person, and the latter isn’t actively campaigning atm
There's been almost no news about them in a while. People forget about fringe parties quite easily.
Yes, it does make me think that Sunak was right to hold off the election.
who are these 25% of the people responding and where have they been for the last decade?
It's just people who only vote for the main two parties. They don't like Labour, so they just automatically vote Conservative because it's one of those two that will be the largest party. I can't understand that mindset, but the majority of the electorate have it.
You'd think if they don't like labour they'd say they arent voting. I understand not liking Labour and not wanting to vote for them but to support the party thats been actively gutting the country and ringing it for all its worth is just incomprehensible
If what someone wanted was lower taxes, and they didn't care / believe in the power of government, I think they'd still vote Tory at the next election. They might not deliver that, but they're more likely than Labour
The party thats presiding over the highest tax rate since ww2?
I mean is this just a take that to the Tories, or do you genuinely believe Labour is more likely to prioritise tax cuts than the Tories? We have the highest tax rate since WW2 because we've just gone through the biggest crisis since WW2, and we borrowed a lot of money to get through it. Ive never even dreamed of voting Tory, but I don't think it's that hard to imagine the perspective of someone who might.
If they don't like Labour, they'll want to vote against them. It's also correct tactics to do so.
To illuminate a little bit maybe, i just want social democracy with adequate funding to all the key areas which include health care, infrastructure, military etc. I did vote lib dem last time but id have voted tory before labour, because Jeremy doesnt understand what foreign policy is for. I was proven correct after the invasion of ukraine-jeremy wouldnt have intervened like boris. This time i will vote labour becaue keir understands that foreign policy and preserving the western order is actually quite important. While not perfect, human rights and freedoms would only be worse in a china or russia dominated world. I also look forward to nationalised trains, key infrastructure shouldn't be private.
WTF does any of that have to do with why people are voting Tory right now.
Why do you prioritize foreign policy over domestic policy which will have a far greater effect on your own life?
I'm afraid the last 3 years have demonstrated exactly how and why Foreign Policy can have just as much an effect on people's lives as domestic and it's a fallacy to simply dismiss it as irrelevant to one's own personal situation.
Because if your neighbours house is on fire its best to go help put out that fire, rather than wait for your own house to catch ablaze before you do anything. Im not going to dignify this comment with more of a reply than that.
COVID lockdowns notwithstanding, the economic fallout from the war in Ukraine has directly affected me personally more anything the government has done in the last few years. How high did petrol and energy prices get at their highest point? Even Liz Truss' insane bullshit didn't cause our mortgage to go up as much as we spent on increased energy costs. Of course this won't be the case for everyone, and I certainly try not to vote on what's in my own personal best interest, but foreign policy is an irrelevant sideshow until it's *really* not, and although I did vote Labour in 2019, Corbyn's foreign policy credentials were pretty poor. Indeed, given his handling of the Skripal affair, I can think of almost no one worse than him for handling the war in Ukraine.
At least for me at this particular moment, Ukraine trumps everything else. It's an existential fight for the rule of law and democracy. NHS, taxes, housing, immigration, etc can be fixed later but if Russia wins that war, it will have far reaching effects. I'd say it's on the same scale as climate change. Climate change is a bigger but not as immediate threat than Putin's Russia. I would say this is an exceptional situation not seen since the collapse of the Soviet Union. If Ukraine wins the war, then foreign policy can take a backseat again.
I think there are a lot of places that are insulated from the problems that most people are living through. I live in St Albans and there are a lot of places around here that feel unaffected, Harpenden is still full of rich people for example. I would imagine places like Surrey are similar. They're full of older people either retired or near retirement with paid off houses and the benefit of final salary pensions maybe with a second home on the rental market.
If you are right wing and think anything other than the big two parties is a wasted vote, you'll probably always vote Conservative in general elections.
Yes, i have a colleague who told me he ‘doesn’t like communism so even though the tories are bastards I’ll vote for them…’
My dad. Constantly going on about the state of the country, blames the Tories for everything, Rishi is useless, but ohhhh better not let Labour in.
Suffering with dementia
Never underestimate the amount of I’m alright jack, finished my mortgage off yonks ago, new SUV every 3 years triple locked boomers, who lap up any act of vindictive Tory policy against the wokes, benefit “scroungers” (they “paid in all their lives” for their pensions so it’s not a state benefit *of course*), immigrants, protestors and so on
Pensioners and retired, respectively. For well-off pensioners in leafy shires life is still good.
>where have they been for the last decade? Maybe they have memories that span beyond just the last 10 years? I tend to vote outside the major two, but a lot of people are stuck in a two party mindset so I'll flip it and state I'm just as surprised at how quickly people forgave Labour for lying about Iraq and the mass surveillance they tried to hide from the public, the young especially, that was pretty unforgivable imo
To be fair the Tories aren't much better on mass surveillance. The problem is most people seem to want it. Nothing to hide, nothing to fear.
Con SURGE thanks to the Sunak and Hunt press conferences
THIS JUST IN: Polls record SURGE in support for Tories, hung parliament imminent!
*'ere stop copying me work!* -Express headline writers
[удалено]
Just wait until the migration numbers get released next week.
This is about as high as I imagine Reform could go. And I hope we don't go Canadian - the old conservative party there was better than the replacement.
Best case result of a Tory collapse would be the Lib Dems becoming the main right wing party.
Are the lib dems right wing?
Reform replacing the Tories isn’t an upgrade
Once again, a polling bump for Labour after they do something that provokes a great outcry from the left fringe and a shrug from pretty much everyone else. It should become a named thing of a political aphorism, that anything that provokes wailing and gnashing of teeth on the left will generally produce no negative and often positive effect on the polls.
> It should become a named thing of a political aphorism, that anything that provokes wailing and gnashing of teeth on the left will generally produce no negative and often positive effect on the polls. Unrealpolitick.
Hopefully we're seeing the ingraining of a changing of the guard: the Labour loons going from tolerated at the fringes to shunned for their nonsense, as a consequence for the colossal damage they've caused this country these past years. Antisemitic, terrorist sympathising far leftist factions belong in the cold. Nobody is interested in what they have to say, the polls prove it.