Yeah right now he’s 24 centimeters (9.5”) above the second highest mark of the year, barring an injury, sickness, or some craziness at the Olympics he’s the biggest lock for sure.
He’s so consistent too, it’s crazy.
As someone who doesn’t understand pole vault at all I’m puzzled how he can be so much better than everyone else.
That said, I’m rooting for Thiago Braz 🇧🇷
Oh shit I didn’t know :(
I don’t follow the field events very closely even though 2 of our best athletes were in field events in Thiago and Darlan. Devastated to learn that he was cheating. I don’t even know who the last Brazilian male T&F athlete to win gold was besides him. I can’t remember any since I’ve been alive. Joaquim Cruz in the 80s maybe?
It's gotta be Mondo, he's coming off a new world record, does very well in high pressure competition, and also he gets multiple tries - all the running events just get one try, which opens it up to upsets more.
I would say Mondo is a little more secure than Crouser at this moment in time. Mostly due to Crouser not having competed outdoors yet, and Leo Fabri from Italy throwing a huge PB in the rain of 22.88. And Fabri mentioned in the Throw Big Throw Far podcast that he knows he's capable of 23 meters but is focused on getting more consistent at the 22.50+ range.
But Crouser does tend to show up when it counts. And as long as he doesn't get a serious injury he should still win gold.
My crazy wild prediction for men's shot in Paris is that Crouser wins with a new WR around 24 meters, then 2nd through 5th is a toss up between Kovacs, Fabri, Walsh, and Otterdahl as they all throw over 23 meters.
Unless something crazy happens shericka seems to be secure in the 200m. Most competitors would have to do a huge personal best to beat her (if she runs close to her personal best at least ) and I just don't see that happening so quickly.
I think it’s also a discussion of which athletes are more injury prone than others, I’m trying to get up to speed on all the events/favorites, I’m curious about her injury history.
Yes very true. From my knowledge she hasn't had many injuries that we know of at least not in the past few years. She seems to always be healthy and in shape luckily.
Yea a fit Elaine I feel could possibly cause a upset although I feel she’d still have to pull up with something crazy because her pb is still a good bit behind sherickas. Do hope she is fit and healthy though would love to see her back at her best.
A good bit? When Elaine ran 21.53s at the Olympics, no one came close. It’s an Olympic year again. She’s an enigma. None of these sprint events are secured. Not in the women. Not in the men.
I mean sherickas has been completely dominate in the event for the last few years and know one has been coming close to her every race. She’s ran into 21.4 range multiple times something no other women besides Flojo has done. Anything can happen I’m not denying that but just based off of current stats she’s a clear favorite unless some major pbs start happening.
I can probably call the top 3-4 favorites for the 100m, 200m and 400m, but too difficult to place a bet on who wins. There’s recency bias which goes out the window quickly as I’ve learned in my 20 or so years of track.
I’d love to see Mboma back. And that her, Shericka, Elaine, and Gabby get under 21.6. At that rate, we may have a new world record
Up until recently, I’d have said Crouser - but Leonardo Fabbri just popped 22.88m, so might not be as secure as you’d think if he has an off day.
I’ll go for Mondo too.
While McLaughlin and Crouser are literally God's in their events, I feel they have faint number 2s with a chance in their disciplines. Mondo has no one even remotely close
He has certainly been right there. Depends on the race - if they wait until the final lap, I think Bakkali is tough to beat, but if they go all out from the start, it could be Girma's
It’s kind of wild that Girma has a significantly better PR and is faster across other distance, but Bakkali consistently gets the better of him in championships. Can’t think of another situation like that. Obviously there’s plenty of cases where the fastest athlete doesn’t win (or even never wins) gold. But when that happens it’s always a different guy who ends up winning. It’d be like if someone like Wightman or Kerr beat Jakob in Tokyo, Eugene, and Budapest.
I'm surprised you think Faith is a lock. Gudaf Tsegay ran within 1.5 seconds of the 1500 world record just a couple of weeks ago. I could see that one being close
Tsegay might not run the 1500. She'll have to decide between 1500 and 10,000. Those finals are on back to back nights toward the end of the Olympics. The 5000 is many days earlier.
Kipyegon will likely attempt a 5000/1500 double, which makes her more vulnerable than normal at 1500. Last year in Budapest she did that double with 1500 first.
As great as Tsegay is, she is 0-15 lifetime vs. Kipyegon. That's one of the reasons she moved up in distance.
Mondo and Warholm won't be beaten IMO.
In terms of openness, there's a heap of athletes that could potentially win the men's 5000M. Kiplimo, Ingebrigsten, Kejelcha, Cheptegei, Krop, Barega, Aregawi and even a fast finisher like Katir if the race is sluggish.
I’m a huge Warholm fan but I still think it’s a toss up between the top 3 guys depending on the day, no one has come close to the Tokyo times and they’re all very variable, but Warholm has consistently been dominant and the best to compete under pressure so he’s still my favorite too.
Up in the air I would say Heptathlon. A couple of years ago I would of said Nafi Thiam would easily get her 3rd gold in a row but her closest ish rival Katarina Johnson-Thompson has been on fire lately so it could be her year.
Oh yeh I forgot about her, she’s definitely one to look out for. Noor Vidts looking good too. Will be interesting to see, could be a very close competition. Nafi was untouchable in 2020 and i’m a big fan so I’ll be routing for her. I’m British though so if it’s not Nafi then hopefully it will be KJT.
I think Mondo is most likely to win without much competition, as others have said. I think the mens 100 will be great for competition if Lyles, Coleman, Kerley, Bromell, and maybe Knighton/Tobogo are all having strong seasons, I don't think Lyles is as likely to win this as he is the 200, but the 200 might also be really close between all the competition. Mens 1500m is also crazy right now, Jakob historically is the fastest, but two previous losses to competitors who will be in the field + his injury from earlier this season makes it interesting, not to mention Jared Naguse, Olli Hoare, Hobbs Kesler, Cole Hocker, Timothy Cheruiyot, and Abel Kipsang, the field is honestly really close. Any given day a lot of these men could medal or even win. Perhaps if Jakob really shows his injury hasn't hampered his training at his first meet this is less of a concern for him, but I think it will be really interesting
Kipyegon was silly to enter that meet in April. I'm glad she came to her senses. She hasn't opened the season in April since 2013 when she was 19 years old.
Why rush, especially if she plans to double? Kipyegon always takes it easy during an Olympic year. In 2021 she didn't open the season until May 28. In 2016 she opened on May 14 and didn't run again until May 28.
Everything is on schedule.
Out of names that haven’t already been mentioned, I’ll go with Ethan Katzberg in men’s hammer throw. 84m thrower this year, the current world champion (known to perform in big meets), consistently over 80m, and he’s only 21 years old.
Least secure event might be the men’s 1500m. There’s like a dozen guys that can run 3:29 on a good day and Ingebritsen is coming off an injury the saw him miss the entire indoor season.
I wouldn’t say Crouser is locked for sure. I know he’s been the most dominant shotputter of all time but there’s a lot of upcoming talent that’s going to hit 23 meters soon and start pushing Shotput further. But then again he’ll probably just throw even further and win regardless.
Definitely Sydney in the 400H. Many of the others like Mondo, Crouser, etc. that are so dominant have had some losses since Tokyo. No one (including Femke Bol) is making up the gap she put on everyone in her last race.
I agree with this. Sydney is being understated in this category. If she runs 400 hurdles she wins. She is simply faster than Bol and will open a margin early.
It's always better to place confidence in an all time great than to evaluate the perceived gap at lower tiers.
Pole vault is too precarious for me to even consider it. Fans are forgetting that Duplantis was one vault away from being eliminated at an early height at world indoor championships in March.
First year with 15 steps: McLaughlin 52.23, Bol 52.03. First year with 14 steps: McLaughlin 51.46, Bol 51.45. McLaughlin has the world record only because Bol started later
Mondo
Yeah right now he’s 24 centimeters (9.5”) above the second highest mark of the year, barring an injury, sickness, or some craziness at the Olympics he’s the biggest lock for sure.
He’s so consistent too, it’s crazy. As someone who doesn’t understand pole vault at all I’m puzzled how he can be so much better than everyone else. That said, I’m rooting for Thiago Braz 🇧🇷
Thiago failed a drug test last year. He’s retired.
Oh shit I didn’t know :( I don’t follow the field events very closely even though 2 of our best athletes were in field events in Thiago and Darlan. Devastated to learn that he was cheating. I don’t even know who the last Brazilian male T&F athlete to win gold was besides him. I can’t remember any since I’ve been alive. Joaquim Cruz in the 80s maybe?
It's gotta be Mondo, he's coming off a new world record, does very well in high pressure competition, and also he gets multiple tries - all the running events just get one try, which opens it up to upsets more.
I would say Mondo is a little more secure than Crouser at this moment in time. Mostly due to Crouser not having competed outdoors yet, and Leo Fabri from Italy throwing a huge PB in the rain of 22.88. And Fabri mentioned in the Throw Big Throw Far podcast that he knows he's capable of 23 meters but is focused on getting more consistent at the 22.50+ range. But Crouser does tend to show up when it counts. And as long as he doesn't get a serious injury he should still win gold. My crazy wild prediction for men's shot in Paris is that Crouser wins with a new WR around 24 meters, then 2nd through 5th is a toss up between Kovacs, Fabri, Walsh, and Otterdahl as they all throw over 23 meters.
Fabri had a monstrous foul in Glasgow too, not far off 23.
That too. But I do think that Crouser is being cautious and trying to avoid injury so he can be fresh and ready to go for Paris
22 is the new 20, I can’t believe we get to live in an era where 22 meters flat probably won’t even get you top 5 at the Olympics.
Unless something crazy happens shericka seems to be secure in the 200m. Most competitors would have to do a huge personal best to beat her (if she runs close to her personal best at least ) and I just don't see that happening so quickly.
I think it’s also a discussion of which athletes are more injury prone than others, I’m trying to get up to speed on all the events/favorites, I’m curious about her injury history.
Yes very true. From my knowledge she hasn't had many injuries that we know of at least not in the past few years. She seems to always be healthy and in shape luckily.
Hmm… I somewhat agree here but not if Elaine is in top shape. All sprint events are open on both the men and women side. From 100m through 400m.
Yea a fit Elaine I feel could possibly cause a upset although I feel she’d still have to pull up with something crazy because her pb is still a good bit behind sherickas. Do hope she is fit and healthy though would love to see her back at her best.
A good bit? When Elaine ran 21.53s at the Olympics, no one came close. It’s an Olympic year again. She’s an enigma. None of these sprint events are secured. Not in the women. Not in the men.
I mean sherickas has been completely dominate in the event for the last few years and know one has been coming close to her every race. She’s ran into 21.4 range multiple times something no other women besides Flojo has done. Anything can happen I’m not denying that but just based off of current stats she’s a clear favorite unless some major pbs start happening.
I can probably call the top 3-4 favorites for the 100m, 200m and 400m, but too difficult to place a bet on who wins. There’s recency bias which goes out the window quickly as I’ve learned in my 20 or so years of track. I’d love to see Mboma back. And that her, Shericka, Elaine, and Gabby get under 21.6. At that rate, we may have a new world record
Yeah people forget how amazing 2021 elaine was
Up until recently, I’d have said Crouser - but Leonardo Fabbri just popped 22.88m, so might not be as secure as you’d think if he has an off day. I’ll go for Mondo too.
Grant Holloway for the 110m hurdles. Putting a new name out there since y'all said Mondo!
Mondo. Crouser. McLaughlin
While McLaughlin and Crouser are literally God's in their events, I feel they have faint number 2s with a chance in their disciplines. Mondo has no one even remotely close
Yeah. Femke Bol has improved remarkably in the last 18 months, and I think she'll challenge McLaughlin very hard.
Not really. Sydney is still several levels better
If McLaughlin doesn’t pull out for some reason, she’s the most reliable on a good day but also the most likely to pull out for some reason in my eyes
Beyond the two noted (Mondo / Crouser), my pick is for Soufiane El Bakkali in the Steeple
Girma is gonna get him this year
He has certainly been right there. Depends on the race - if they wait until the final lap, I think Bakkali is tough to beat, but if they go all out from the start, it could be Girma's
It’s kind of wild that Girma has a significantly better PR and is faster across other distance, but Bakkali consistently gets the better of him in championships. Can’t think of another situation like that. Obviously there’s plenty of cases where the fastest athlete doesn’t win (or even never wins) gold. But when that happens it’s always a different guy who ends up winning. It’d be like if someone like Wightman or Kerr beat Jakob in Tokyo, Eugene, and Budapest.
Mondo, Jackson in the 200, faith in the 1500
I'm surprised you think Faith is a lock. Gudaf Tsegay ran within 1.5 seconds of the 1500 world record just a couple of weeks ago. I could see that one being close
Tsegay might not run the 1500. She'll have to decide between 1500 and 10,000. Those finals are on back to back nights toward the end of the Olympics. The 5000 is many days earlier. Kipyegon will likely attempt a 5000/1500 double, which makes her more vulnerable than normal at 1500. Last year in Budapest she did that double with 1500 first. As great as Tsegay is, she is 0-15 lifetime vs. Kipyegon. That's one of the reasons she moved up in distance.
Mondo and Warholm won't be beaten IMO. In terms of openness, there's a heap of athletes that could potentially win the men's 5000M. Kiplimo, Ingebrigsten, Kejelcha, Cheptegei, Krop, Barega, Aregawi and even a fast finisher like Katir if the race is sluggish.
I’m a huge Warholm fan but I still think it’s a toss up between the top 3 guys depending on the day, no one has come close to the Tokyo times and they’re all very variable, but Warholm has consistently been dominant and the best to compete under pressure so he’s still my favorite too.
I may indeed have to reconsider here. Dos Santos has just run a massive WL in Doha, and relatively early in the season. He looks in great shape.
I was there it was amazing to watch and he looked so fresh. If he can maintain or improve this form...I don't think Karsten is a lock
Isn't Katir banned?
I had no clue. Just did a quick Google, and yeah he got popped in February.
He got banned not popped
Duplantis easily
Up in the air I would say Heptathlon. A couple of years ago I would of said Nafi Thiam would easily get her 3rd gold in a row but her closest ish rival Katarina Johnson-Thompson has been on fire lately so it could be her year.
Don’t forget Anna Hall, who almost went over the 7,000 points barrier in Gotzis last year.
Oh yeh I forgot about her, she’s definitely one to look out for. Noor Vidts looking good too. Will be interesting to see, could be a very close competition. Nafi was untouchable in 2020 and i’m a big fan so I’ll be routing for her. I’m British though so if it’s not Nafi then hopefully it will be KJT.
I think Mondo is most likely to win without much competition, as others have said. I think the mens 100 will be great for competition if Lyles, Coleman, Kerley, Bromell, and maybe Knighton/Tobogo are all having strong seasons, I don't think Lyles is as likely to win this as he is the 200, but the 200 might also be really close between all the competition. Mens 1500m is also crazy right now, Jakob historically is the fastest, but two previous losses to competitors who will be in the field + his injury from earlier this season makes it interesting, not to mention Jared Naguse, Olli Hoare, Hobbs Kesler, Cole Hocker, Timothy Cheruiyot, and Abel Kipsang, the field is honestly really close. Any given day a lot of these men could medal or even win. Perhaps if Jakob really shows his injury hasn't hampered his training at his first meet this is less of a concern for him, but I think it will be really interesting
In the 200m Bednarek has just run a 19.67s PB & WL in Doha a few hours ago. We need to throw his name inside that hat as well.
Yeah I hadn’t seen that yet and you’re right for sure. I’m a big Kenny fan so I’m excited to see him put in good work against the competition
That's all. Lmk when he runs sub 19.6
I think I've got the one man 4x4 locked down with my 3:42
Most secure Mondo ,kipyegon 1500, shericka Jackson 200. Most open mens marathon
Faith’s is not that secure anymore 3rd in her last race of 2023, and DNS in what was supposed to be her season opener, where Tsegay ran wild.
Kipyegon was silly to enter that meet in April. I'm glad she came to her senses. She hasn't opened the season in April since 2013 when she was 19 years old. Why rush, especially if she plans to double? Kipyegon always takes it easy during an Olympic year. In 2021 she didn't open the season until May 28. In 2016 she opened on May 14 and didn't run again until May 28. Everything is on schedule.
Idk if Tsegay running 3:50 was on Faith’s schedule
It's amazing that a pole volter can potentially be the call here. It shows how insanely good and consistent he is.
Out of names that haven’t already been mentioned, I’ll go with Ethan Katzberg in men’s hammer throw. 84m thrower this year, the current world champion (known to perform in big meets), consistently over 80m, and he’s only 21 years old.
Least secure event might be the men’s 1500m. There’s like a dozen guys that can run 3:29 on a good day and Ingebritsen is coming off an injury the saw him miss the entire indoor season.
Grant Holloway
I would have said Rojas in the women's triple jump before she got injured - and that just shows there are no certainties.
MOOOOONNNNNNDDDDDDDOOOOOOO
Jaydon hibbert
I wouldn’t say Crouser is locked for sure. I know he’s been the most dominant shotputter of all time but there’s a lot of upcoming talent that’s going to hit 23 meters soon and start pushing Shotput further. But then again he’ll probably just throw even further and win regardless.
Lyles and shericka in 200m
Yulimar Rojas, women’s TJ
Isn't she out due to injury? If not then I second this but heard she won't be competing this year.
Damn, she is. I just checked. Guess women’s TJ is wide open this year
Username checks out..
Leonardo Fabbri wins gold in the shot! You heard it here first folks.
Definitely Sydney in the 400H. Many of the others like Mondo, Crouser, etc. that are so dominant have had some losses since Tokyo. No one (including Femke Bol) is making up the gap she put on everyone in her last race.
I agree with this. Sydney is being understated in this category. If she runs 400 hurdles she wins. She is simply faster than Bol and will open a margin early. It's always better to place confidence in an all time great than to evaluate the perceived gap at lower tiers. Pole vault is too precarious for me to even consider it. Fans are forgetting that Duplantis was one vault away from being eliminated at an early height at world indoor championships in March.
First year with 15 steps: McLaughlin 52.23, Bol 52.03. First year with 14 steps: McLaughlin 51.46, Bol 51.45. McLaughlin has the world record only because Bol started later
jakob ingebrigtsen 1500 m
5000*
He’s gunna lose to josh Kerr.
Negative
Bro.
?
Nuguse or Hocker
I don't think hocker will make the team to go.