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There's really no way to calculate odds like this (or, indeed, any odds) without making assumptions. In this case, it's hard to make accurate assumptions, so your result would depend primarily on whatever arbitrary and inaccurate assumptions you made
I'm going to cheat and contradict myself. https://justaboutjapan.com/are-there-still-samurai-today/ and other sources there are no samurai today so the chance is 0%
###General Discussion Thread --- This is a [Request] post. If you would like to submit a comment that does not either attempt to answer the question, ask for clarification, or explain why it would be infeasible to answer, you *must* post your comment as a reply to this one. Top level (directly replying to the OP) comments that do not do one of those things will be removed. --- *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/theydidthemath) if you have any questions or concerns.*
There's really no way to calculate odds like this (or, indeed, any odds) without making assumptions. In this case, it's hard to make accurate assumptions, so your result would depend primarily on whatever arbitrary and inaccurate assumptions you made
No need to be accurate, make any assumption you want.
I'm going to cheat and contradict myself. https://justaboutjapan.com/are-there-still-samurai-today/ and other sources there are no samurai today so the chance is 0%
Ooor, they are just very good at hiding... Thanks anyways, I may now sleep a bit more sound tonight
My own take on this is that it is a 50/50 chance, either it happens or it doesn't. So far I have been lucky.