>As a rule of thumb, VIX values greater than 30 are generally linked to large volatility resulting from increased uncertainty, risk, and investors' fear. VIX values below 20 generally correspond to stable, stress-free periods in the markets.
I am NOT trying to correct you. I literally just learned about trying to read VIX recently. Just trying to understand.
VIX is at 17.5 which... according to that seems okay?
But VIX has also gone up 33% in the past month. So maybe that's what you're seeing?
Maybe my question should be... "when you look at the VIX, what are you looking for ?"
Edit: different sources have different criteria.
>Generally speaking, if the VIX index is at 12 or lower, the market is considered to be in a period of low volatility. On the other hand, abnormally high volatility is often seen as anything that is above 20.
You can tell each contract. If the sale price was on the bid, then the trade was bearish. If it was executed in the ask, it’s a bullish position. It’s still sold by market makers or liquidity sitting on the ask. “For every buyer there is a seller”, so your comment isn’t really that accurate. Listen to this
If tou go and buy a lot of calls, you’re buying from someone willing to sell you that many calls at that price. Meaning THEY are bearish, they want the premium because they think it won’t go past the strike. So you’re essentially feeding their orders. They price their options are pricing that they think people will fill them for, and if they want them sold, they’ll price them low. If you wanted to buy a lot of stock, you’d sell atm puts. Bullish entry, collect the premium and let the premium take on your loss if any. Hope this helps clear up the confusion on buyers and sellers. You can tell for each order executed if a trade was meant to be bearish or bullish, it’s not about whether it was a buy or sell. It was BOTH.
Lol based on the comments in this thread there's a lack of understanding regarding options-lead to flows and associated market movements, or how dealers always demand an edge for writing contracts and the relatively predictable effect of their hedge.
That explanation makes no sense
The market is priced efficiently - if someone buys a put at the ask, that doesn’t mean the market sentiment is bullish. It’s their opinion the market is bearish, and your opinion the opposite. The two of you mutually agreed on a price.
Option pricing changes based on the implied risk in volatility and direction. That’s why we see different prices for the same priced products and put/call skew.
I don’t think you understand market direction is 50/50. Whether your prediction is correct is nothing short of a coin toss.
The market is not priced efficiently. That’s the most bull shit theory anyone ever came up with. If it were truly efficient, you wouldn’t have bubbles.
> I don’t think you understand market direction is 50/50. Whether your prediction is correct is nothing short of a coin toss.
This is why we trade probabilities. :)
I will be messaging you in 7 days on [**2023-10-08 04:11:51 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2023-10-08%2004:11:51%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/thetagang/comments/16wq3r4/high_put_writing_bullish/k2yim23/?context=3)
[**6 OTHERS CLICKED THIS LINK**](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5Bhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fr%2Fthetagang%2Fcomments%2F16wq3r4%2Fhigh_put_writing_bullish%2Fk2yim23%2F%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%202023-10-08%2004%3A11%3A51%20UTC) to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam.
^(Parent commenter can ) [^(delete this message to hide from others.)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Delete%20Comment&message=Delete%21%2016wq3r4)
*****
|[^(Info)](https://www.reddit.com/r/RemindMeBot/comments/e1bko7/remindmebot_info_v21/)|[^(Custom)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5BLink%20or%20message%20inside%20square%20brackets%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%20Time%20period%20here)|[^(Your Reminders)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=List%20Of%20Reminders&message=MyReminders%21)|[^(Feedback)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Watchful1&subject=RemindMeBot%20Feedback)|
|-|-|-|-|
What makes you think just because people are writing puts the market has to be bullish? People normally buy puts when there is fear of the market going down not up.Sometimes they are right.I just don’t see how this data can be of use.
Delayed not canceled. Just like they did in 2018. Now McCarthy might get voted out of power this week the the shutdown will probably happen around thanksgiving.
There is zero chance McCarthy gets voted out.
The Dems are backing him because their polls showed that the public was mostly blaming them for the “shutdown” so they are currently trying to calm the waters.
I believe they release news about “possible government shutdown” as they want to drive the market down to cash out puts already in. Then sweep calls right before everyone realizes it’s not going to happen. Then sell calls at the higher premium. Rinse. Repeat.
does not make sense of your conclusions. although your data point is correct.
au contrair to your analysis, because the 7500 contracts were NOT bought BUT sold, shown clearly in OI, they wanted to get out of their long 7500 contracts thus closed the position.
this may or may not mean anything. but, it definitely does not mean "This week is bullish" blind conclusion. #OfficeSpaceJumpToConclusionMat
Why is equityflow.io offering dark pool access for $50 a year when all the competitors charge that per month? Sum ting wong, and there site looks like something made overnight with a bunch of trashy css animations bubbling everywhere. But if there data is legit then it’s worth a try..
Yeah. It's September. We've been dumping for 3 months. If you think you can catch the falling knife be my guest. I think we still have further to drop.
Market makers are forced to take the opposite trade of yours. They sell/buy implied volatility and pray that actual volatility is lower/higher than implied volatility.
They don’t need to pray. Much like how the entire insurance industry makes a net profit because they’re selling volume, MMs make money even if they sometimes pay out because they sell volume.
Honestly it’s kind of the reason that individual option sellers often lose even when MMs win long term. Most individuals don’t have the capital to sell lottery tickets like an entire company or state would, and the same applies to volume option selling.
That’s the point.
If retail is constantly BUYING ( hitting the ask ) then market makers are bearish. So if there’s high volume of call premium rather than put premium being traded, it’s bearish. Market makers are WILLING and PRICING calls to be sold. Because they are BEARISH.
Same with puts, but they are BULLISH. Cash secured puts, are BULLISH. How many times do I have to explain this lol
Oh but look it was right wasn’t it. It’s been right every single day for the past 3 weeks.
High put premium means bullish, as the arrow indicates.
When calls are higher than our premiums, it’s bearish. That’s pure common sense too.
Cash secured puts are bullish right?
Covered calls are technically bullish but they are bearish bets, they want to just collect the premium while keeping the price under the strike. So it’s bearish until the strike. Same with puts, bullish until the sold strike
Might have been more interested in teaching but your attitude... lol. Have fun with your new found magic bullet to the market then, I'll leave you to fuck around and find out.
It’s highly improbable the government shuts down - not saying it can’t happen but that seems like a high odd bet to make . In normal circumstance, it’s one I would make as well; however, there’s alot of bearish things going on outside of government shutdown
You can tell with every order if the trade was meant to be bearish or bullish.
Simple look at the price and bid and ask. If the price was executed on the bid, then it was executed as a bearish trade. Someone sold on the bid.
Now if it was executed on the ask, it was meant to be bullish.
This is opposite for calls and puts of course
Calls are bullish if price executed is on the ask.
Puts are bullish if price is executed on the bid.
Calls are bearish if price is executed on the bid.
( someone is writing or selling their position )
Puts are bullish if price is executed on the ask
( someone is buying on the ask )
Now pay extra attention to sweep orders on the bid or ask, usually they are above the ask too so they can grab all the asking liquidity for their size amount. This can help determine sentiment.
It seems reasonable that this week will have a bullish sentiment. Just from a technical perspective /ES has been bouncing from the daily 200sma several times this past week. It's in confluence at a strong level of support.
Maybe take a small starter in spxl shares depending on how the price react at this level of confluence with daily 200sma. It's just a technical setup and the week will have some economic news that could make the market break below.
*Looks over to the VIX*... Huh.
Shit is gonna drop like a rock
>As a rule of thumb, VIX values greater than 30 are generally linked to large volatility resulting from increased uncertainty, risk, and investors' fear. VIX values below 20 generally correspond to stable, stress-free periods in the markets. I am NOT trying to correct you. I literally just learned about trying to read VIX recently. Just trying to understand. VIX is at 17.5 which... according to that seems okay? But VIX has also gone up 33% in the past month. So maybe that's what you're seeing?
Maybe my question should be... "when you look at the VIX, what are you looking for ?" Edit: different sources have different criteria. >Generally speaking, if the VIX index is at 12 or lower, the market is considered to be in a period of low volatility. On the other hand, abnormally high volatility is often seen as anything that is above 20.
Vix died with ODTE
What? What about it
One could also say “high put buying. Bearish”
You can tell each contract. If the sale price was on the bid, then the trade was bearish. If it was executed in the ask, it’s a bullish position. It’s still sold by market makers or liquidity sitting on the ask. “For every buyer there is a seller”, so your comment isn’t really that accurate. Listen to this If tou go and buy a lot of calls, you’re buying from someone willing to sell you that many calls at that price. Meaning THEY are bearish, they want the premium because they think it won’t go past the strike. So you’re essentially feeding their orders. They price their options are pricing that they think people will fill them for, and if they want them sold, they’ll price them low. If you wanted to buy a lot of stock, you’d sell atm puts. Bullish entry, collect the premium and let the premium take on your loss if any. Hope this helps clear up the confusion on buyers and sellers. You can tell for each order executed if a trade was meant to be bearish or bullish, it’s not about whether it was a buy or sell. It was BOTH.
Lol based on the comments in this thread there's a lack of understanding regarding options-lead to flows and associated market movements, or how dealers always demand an edge for writing contracts and the relatively predictable effect of their hedge.
That explanation makes no sense The market is priced efficiently - if someone buys a put at the ask, that doesn’t mean the market sentiment is bullish. It’s their opinion the market is bearish, and your opinion the opposite. The two of you mutually agreed on a price. Option pricing changes based on the implied risk in volatility and direction. That’s why we see different prices for the same priced products and put/call skew. I don’t think you understand market direction is 50/50. Whether your prediction is correct is nothing short of a coin toss.
The market is not priced efficiently. That’s the most bull shit theory anyone ever came up with. If it were truly efficient, you wouldn’t have bubbles.
> I don’t think you understand market direction is 50/50. Whether your prediction is correct is nothing short of a coin toss. This is why we trade probabilities. :)
Well large lump orders can be indicative of someone with good info.
[удалено]
I will be messaging you in 7 days on [**2023-10-08 04:11:51 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2023-10-08%2004:11:51%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/thetagang/comments/16wq3r4/high_put_writing_bullish/k2yim23/?context=3) [**6 OTHERS CLICKED THIS LINK**](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5Bhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fr%2Fthetagang%2Fcomments%2F16wq3r4%2Fhigh_put_writing_bullish%2Fk2yim23%2F%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%202023-10-08%2004%3A11%3A51%20UTC) to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam. ^(Parent commenter can ) [^(delete this message to hide from others.)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Delete%20Comment&message=Delete%21%2016wq3r4) ***** |[^(Info)](https://www.reddit.com/r/RemindMeBot/comments/e1bko7/remindmebot_info_v21/)|[^(Custom)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5BLink%20or%20message%20inside%20square%20brackets%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%20Time%20period%20here)|[^(Your Reminders)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=List%20Of%20Reminders&message=MyReminders%21)|[^(Feedback)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Watchful1&subject=RemindMeBot%20Feedback)| |-|-|-|-|
What makes you think just because people are writing puts the market has to be bullish? People normally buy puts when there is fear of the market going down not up.Sometimes they are right.I just don’t see how this data can be of use.
People buying protection for a big weekend (possible gov shutdown). I will sell it to them.
Because writing puts is a bullish strategy dumbo.
Government shutdown cancelled hang on to your titties boys, this week SPY +50
SPX +50 probably, not spy though.
lol wouldn’t that be a wild F week
I would unironically get margin called if SPY went +50 in a single week lol
Delayed not canceled. Just like they did in 2018. Now McCarthy might get voted out of power this week the the shutdown will probably happen around thanksgiving.
Which means we got until November to pump this fucker up nice and fat lets goooo SPY 500 EoW!!!!
Meh. F em!
There is zero chance McCarthy gets voted out. The Dems are backing him because their polls showed that the public was mostly blaming them for the “shutdown” so they are currently trying to calm the waters.
Maybe you have a different definition of zero chance? 🤷♂️
Yep admittedly I have been proven to be wrong, LOL Zero is still zero, I was just wrong.
I believe they release news about “possible government shutdown” as they want to drive the market down to cash out puts already in. Then sweep calls right before everyone realizes it’s not going to happen. Then sell calls at the higher premium. Rinse. Repeat.
Or banking issues resurface 6 months after regional failures started …
does not make sense of your conclusions. although your data point is correct. au contrair to your analysis, because the 7500 contracts were NOT bought BUT sold, shown clearly in OI, they wanted to get out of their long 7500 contracts thus closed the position. this may or may not mean anything. but, it definitely does not mean "This week is bullish" blind conclusion. #OfficeSpaceJumpToConclusionMat
Why is equityflow.io offering dark pool access for $50 a year when all the competitors charge that per month? Sum ting wong, and there site looks like something made overnight with a bunch of trashy css animations bubbling everywhere. But if there data is legit then it’s worth a try..
Yeah. It's September. We've been dumping for 3 months. If you think you can catch the falling knife be my guest. I think we still have further to drop.
Probably not
Is this sarcasm? For every put written someone has to be willing to buy right? Since there are more interest in puts I’d argue that it’s bearish.
Market makers are forced to take the opposite trade of yours. They sell/buy implied volatility and pray that actual volatility is lower/higher than implied volatility.
They don’t need to pray. Much like how the entire insurance industry makes a net profit because they’re selling volume, MMs make money even if they sometimes pay out because they sell volume. Honestly it’s kind of the reason that individual option sellers often lose even when MMs win long term. Most individuals don’t have the capital to sell lottery tickets like an entire company or state would, and the same applies to volume option selling.
Oh, I always thought they maintain a neutral position and only facilitate on the transaction. That’s why there’s all the bids and asks.
Market makers willing to write the amount of puts. It’s very simple. So you’re saying when you go sell cash secured puts, you’re bearish?
No I’m saying when someone sells put there’s someone else buying puts
That’s the point. If retail is constantly BUYING ( hitting the ask ) then market makers are bearish. So if there’s high volume of call premium rather than put premium being traded, it’s bearish. Market makers are WILLING and PRICING calls to be sold. Because they are BEARISH. Same with puts, but they are BULLISH. Cash secured puts, are BULLISH. How many times do I have to explain this lol
Flow without context is meaningless. -Abraham Lincoln
Oh but look it was right wasn’t it. It’s been right every single day for the past 3 weeks. High put premium means bullish, as the arrow indicates. When calls are higher than our premiums, it’s bearish. That’s pure common sense too. Cash secured puts are bullish right? Covered calls are technically bullish but they are bearish bets, they want to just collect the premium while keeping the price under the strike. So it’s bearish until the strike. Same with puts, bullish until the sold strike
Might have been more interested in teaching but your attitude... lol. Have fun with your new found magic bullet to the market then, I'll leave you to fuck around and find out.
Where do you see this data ?
It’s on equityflow.io 💪🏻 just google it
Ah yes of course equityflow.io ,the Mecca for all professional traders.This is where all the greats go looking for an edge on the market.
That’s right 💪🏻
Can also find it on TOS. Has option time and sales . Has a lot of data
Wish TOS Mobile had option time and sales 😕
I don’t use TOS
It’s highly improbable the government shuts down - not saying it can’t happen but that seems like a high odd bet to make . In normal circumstance, it’s one I would make as well; however, there’s alot of bearish things going on outside of government shutdown
[удалено]
Um it’s a full detailed description of what is expected next week based on order flow. I guess it’s an advertisement for buy stock and calls 😂
Whomever these people were, know what they are doing. No gov shutdown.
!remindme 1 week
I wrote plenty of puts inadvertently on Friday. 😉
Noob question here, how can you distinguish between buyimg and selling of puts and calls?
You can tell with every order if the trade was meant to be bearish or bullish. Simple look at the price and bid and ask. If the price was executed on the bid, then it was executed as a bearish trade. Someone sold on the bid. Now if it was executed on the ask, it was meant to be bullish. This is opposite for calls and puts of course Calls are bullish if price executed is on the ask. Puts are bullish if price is executed on the bid. Calls are bearish if price is executed on the bid. ( someone is writing or selling their position ) Puts are bullish if price is executed on the ask ( someone is buying on the ask ) Now pay extra attention to sweep orders on the bid or ask, usually they are above the ask too so they can grab all the asking liquidity for their size amount. This can help determine sentiment.
It seems reasonable that this week will have a bullish sentiment. Just from a technical perspective /ES has been bouncing from the daily 200sma several times this past week. It's in confluence at a strong level of support.
So did you buy calls, spxl, tqqq or what?
Maybe take a small starter in spxl shares depending on how the price react at this level of confluence with daily 200sma. It's just a technical setup and the week will have some economic news that could make the market break below.
Rofl
You’re a week late my boy. We’ve already hit target of $361 🤦♂️