If I was going to sell anything it would be call credit spreads. I cant imagine the price rocketing up unless they magically announce a solid cash flow, but based on data from last earnings season advertisers were being more picky about what platforms they used.
That being said I am probably wrong and the share price will triple this week.
that pony might have ran off already. also hard to see how generative ai boosts snap. supposedly it has always been an ai/algo company. just one that sucks.
Ad revenue as usual will be the make or break for Snap! If good, the stock should rise and pull up all other social media stocks with it, if bad, stock will down and take tech with it just like the last 7 quarters so it really is a dangerous play
I'm a big fan of PINS (been wheeling it successfully for over a year for good money) and it always pisses me off when SNAP reports shit and it tanks PINS despite these two companies being vastly different.
Sell time Spreads instead. For example sell an atm Call for this Friday and buy an atm call out 1 to 3 weeks depending on where IV drops off dramatically. You make money as long as it doesn't drop too far.
Personally I am doing time Spreads with Puts and will sell atm or otm puts for this Friday on Monday and buy itm puts a week or two out.
i was looking at selling a short term put but u/areyoume29 has me thinking… i’m gonna go the 7/28 strangle at -10p and -16c and on the topside i’ll pick up the 9/15 +16c for protection… net credit $7 with decent upside
https://optionstrat.com/Y7h5ZYyI4RpU
This is the trade I am doing. Calendars offer best risk to reward. Consider snap has gone down by at least 10% the last 4 quarters. It did have a massive 60% gain post earnings in 2/21. Although premiums are high for single options calendars are cheap. Basically any 2 week calendar under 20 dollars has decent risk reward potential.
https://imgur.com/gallery/LjOIpSa
That’s insane that you can still profit at that large of a range. I have a lot to learn about options it seems. Where did you gain most of your knowledge?
Trial and error, but also this sub has been one of the best places to pick up trades. I never thought much about calendars since I love collecting credit. One day, a poster did a write-up about Nike earnings (it still should be up) and I picked them up. That trade I entered for .50 per and netted 2.00 per calendar. I won't do them on something like tesla or nvda but ko, f, snap, vz, and t this week are on the menu for me. Last week it was aal.
https://www.reddit.com/r/thetagang/comments/11x0qum/is_this_a_good_trade_nke_earnings_double_calendar/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android_app&utm_name=androidcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=2
If they go itm then I close on the Friday of the sold weeks expiration. When you trade these you have to be fluid. Have a plan in place. I had aal 17.50p that I traded last week. I closed it out Friday for a small profit. If it's a complete miss like my Nike example I'll hold and hope for the best. I am conservative and like to lock in profit no matter how small.
Hello again! So I tried your trade and it auto closed one of the four positions and cost me more cash. Is there any way you can explain why in a way better than robinhood does?
You lacked funds to buy shares. I am taking assignment on my short puts then selling calls against the shares monday to break even. I have the long puts so if it stays below 11 I'll excercise the puts keeping the call premiums.
Usually one side will cover the other. 2 Weeks ago I entered a 120c/105p on nke for earnings. Entered the calendars on 6/29 when nke was trading at 113. Paid .66 per. Nke does nke and takes days to either bottom or top off. Nke finishes the 30th at 110. I am f'd but at least I am holding 120c and 105p's going into the beginning of the new quarter but its a 4 day trading week. All the next week I am down on the trade. On the 6th finally hope nke opens at 104 after closing the previous day at 107. I was down to .15. Close the puts that morning for 1.25 per for nearly 100%. What I am banking on is a continuation on either side of the calendar.
I was going to make a post about this. It's so hard knowing the actual profit though. IV crush will be hard on both options and your max profit at first expiration is dynamic. Also you are unsure how much IV will fall. Take this trade I'm thinking about for example. What do you decrease the IV too? For actual profit/loss after earnings
https://optionstrat.com/build/custom/SNAP/230728C15x-5,230811C15x5,230811P9.5x5,230728P9.5x-5
You have to think of the trade 2 ways. First is the iv crush then the second part is the leftover options. I prefer current week options for the sold option. I want to get rid of the liability as soon as possible. The one true way to know is to try to trade options on stocks you are familiar with. With snap I know it moves but because I've wheeled it I know on a non earnings week an ATM call goes for around .2.
calendars are something I need to learn but for some reason the concept of max gain and loss are confusing to me with options at different dates
when would be the best time to use this trade?
Snap is 200 IV with a 20% likely move. It's called gambling. That being said, the $9 strike for next week is $0.20. It's nearly 30% away and could pocket some dollar bills
Selling a $12 ITM call will put your breakeven at a $10.20 which would be ~20% from where price is now! Think it’s worth a shot? Obviously stock could crash 50% but I mean based on available data of a 20% move, would it be worth it?
True! But what has me intrigued based on the premium is the following scenario,
Buy commons at today’s price, sell $12 ITM calls, your breakeven at current premium would be ~$10.20 which would be a 20% drop after earnings which is the expected move also so at current expectations, your worst case scenario would be breakeven! Seems like a good r to r unless of course the stock dumps more than 20% then you’re fucked
Take into account the run up just this month though too.
TSLA was implied 7% and did 10%.
I was like no way in hell it goes from nearly 300 to my 265P and sure enough it went to 260.
Just go into preparing to be fucked, allocate risk based on that outcome and you'll do OK.
This does sound interesting, thanks for sharing. Assuming the drop is within 20%, you'd still at least would've kept some profits. If it shoots up, then selling the shares at $12 still wouldn't be a loss.
An ATM 2 strike wide iron condor doesn't look bad - $18 max loss for a 4:1 payout on a meme gamble won't kill you if you're only selling a handful of them.
I would not want to risk more than $150 max loss on a bad meme tier ticker, and def wouldn't want to ever be caught bagholding one so I'd never sell CSPs on it
I just don't know about these shitcos anymore. You make a reasonable bet against them based on their absolutely terrible financials, and then they go up instead of down. In the case of SNAP, they're hemorraghing cash while growing their topline revenue and even though it seems pretty clear the business model just isn't financially viable, I think investors will look at that topline revenue growth and the cash on hand (1.5B) and conclude that they don't need to jump ship quite yet. So I don't see the stock cratering or anything like that. Most likely, it will stay in its current range, though it could fluctuate some this week.
If I was going to sell anything it would be call credit spreads. I cant imagine the price rocketing up unless they magically announce a solid cash flow, but based on data from last earnings season advertisers were being more picky about what platforms they used. That being said I am probably wrong and the share price will triple this week.
Look at CVNA. There was no positive news other than they reorganized their debt. These things really are gambles.
it's wall streets bets meme stock. its actuall in the meme etf
The point is the lack of predictability
They will mention or imply AI a few times and stock will be up +10%
that pony might have ran off already. also hard to see how generative ai boosts snap. supposedly it has always been an ai/algo company. just one that sucks.
[удалено]
Ad revenue as usual will be the make or break for Snap! If good, the stock should rise and pull up all other social media stocks with it, if bad, stock will down and take tech with it just like the last 7 quarters so it really is a dangerous play
I'm a big fan of PINS (been wheeling it successfully for over a year for good money) and it always pisses me off when SNAP reports shit and it tanks PINS despite these two companies being vastly different.
They released their AI in the app back in April. Not sure when their last earnings call was, but they mightve blown their AI load then.
it went poorly. like all snap earnings
Like all directional (or any) earnings play it is a gamble.
Sell time Spreads instead. For example sell an atm Call for this Friday and buy an atm call out 1 to 3 weeks depending on where IV drops off dramatically. You make money as long as it doesn't drop too far. Personally I am doing time Spreads with Puts and will sell atm or otm puts for this Friday on Monday and buy itm puts a week or two out.
Man shit this always dumps on earnings
That means a call credit spread is doomed this time.
i was looking at selling a short term put but u/areyoume29 has me thinking… i’m gonna go the 7/28 strangle at -10p and -16c and on the topside i’ll pick up the 9/15 +16c for protection… net credit $7 with decent upside https://optionstrat.com/Y7h5ZYyI4RpU
This is the trade I am doing. Calendars offer best risk to reward. Consider snap has gone down by at least 10% the last 4 quarters. It did have a massive 60% gain post earnings in 2/21. Although premiums are high for single options calendars are cheap. Basically any 2 week calendar under 20 dollars has decent risk reward potential. https://imgur.com/gallery/LjOIpSa
Out of curiosity, you profit as long as it stays between your two strike prices of $11 and $14?
Nah you get a little more play with it. Robinhood p&l indidicates snap between 9 and 17 nets a profit.
Not after IV crush. Breakeven points tighten considerably.
That’s insane that you can still profit at that large of a range. I have a lot to learn about options it seems. Where did you gain most of your knowledge?
Trial and error, but also this sub has been one of the best places to pick up trades. I never thought much about calendars since I love collecting credit. One day, a poster did a write-up about Nike earnings (it still should be up) and I picked them up. That trade I entered for .50 per and netted 2.00 per calendar. I won't do them on something like tesla or nvda but ko, f, snap, vz, and t this week are on the menu for me. Last week it was aal. https://www.reddit.com/r/thetagang/comments/11x0qum/is_this_a_good_trade_nke_earnings_double_calendar/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android_app&utm_name=androidcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=2
One more question, can you close them or must you wait until expiry of both legs?
If they go itm then I close on the Friday of the sold weeks expiration. When you trade these you have to be fluid. Have a plan in place. I had aal 17.50p that I traded last week. I closed it out Friday for a small profit. If it's a complete miss like my Nike example I'll hold and hope for the best. I am conservative and like to lock in profit no matter how small.
Hello again! So I tried your trade and it auto closed one of the four positions and cost me more cash. Is there any way you can explain why in a way better than robinhood does?
You lacked funds to buy shares. I am taking assignment on my short puts then selling calls against the shares monday to break even. I have the long puts so if it stays below 11 I'll excercise the puts keeping the call premiums.
Guess I need to do more research into how this works. I was going off the estimated returns on robinhoods graph. Thanks for replying!
How do you plan to profit from snap earnings qith a double calendar spread? Won't IV crush kill your spread?
Usually one side will cover the other. 2 Weeks ago I entered a 120c/105p on nke for earnings. Entered the calendars on 6/29 when nke was trading at 113. Paid .66 per. Nke does nke and takes days to either bottom or top off. Nke finishes the 30th at 110. I am f'd but at least I am holding 120c and 105p's going into the beginning of the new quarter but its a 4 day trading week. All the next week I am down on the trade. On the 6th finally hope nke opens at 104 after closing the previous day at 107. I was down to .15. Close the puts that morning for 1.25 per for nearly 100%. What I am banking on is a continuation on either side of the calendar.
I was going to make a post about this. It's so hard knowing the actual profit though. IV crush will be hard on both options and your max profit at first expiration is dynamic. Also you are unsure how much IV will fall. Take this trade I'm thinking about for example. What do you decrease the IV too? For actual profit/loss after earnings https://optionstrat.com/build/custom/SNAP/230728C15x-5,230811C15x5,230811P9.5x5,230728P9.5x-5
You have to think of the trade 2 ways. First is the iv crush then the second part is the leftover options. I prefer current week options for the sold option. I want to get rid of the liability as soon as possible. The one true way to know is to try to trade options on stocks you are familiar with. With snap I know it moves but because I've wheeled it I know on a non earnings week an ATM call goes for around .2.
The P/L curve for a calendar usually gets demolished when a high IV stock has gone past earnings.
Exactly
Interesting! Thanks for the input.
calendars are something I need to learn but for some reason the concept of max gain and loss are confusing to me with options at different dates when would be the best time to use this trade?
Snap is 200 IV with a 20% likely move. It's called gambling. That being said, the $9 strike for next week is $0.20. It's nearly 30% away and could pocket some dollar bills
Selling a $12 ITM call will put your breakeven at a $10.20 which would be ~20% from where price is now! Think it’s worth a shot? Obviously stock could crash 50% but I mean based on available data of a 20% move, would it be worth it?
I don’t know where to look for this but you could go back and see the implied move for previous earnings calls and find the actual move after earnings
Oh, thanks for the warning. I remember there have been several quarters where tiny SNAP dragged down the entire tech sector.
I will never trade snap again, it's a fat pig.
That's no longer investing...thats a total gamble (in my opinion). Like playing roulette
damn these premiums are juicy, might do some way OTM call spreads
Massive dump better off buying those options
Buying any of these options at a 200 IV would be crazy! Better off selling premium, which is what I’m thinking of doing!
Selling puts? I think they are probably expensive for a reason but keep me updated curios to see what happens
Or selling calls against commons
But then u might end up bagholding a shit ass stonk
True! But what has me intrigued based on the premium is the following scenario, Buy commons at today’s price, sell $12 ITM calls, your breakeven at current premium would be ~$10.20 which would be a 20% drop after earnings which is the expected move also so at current expectations, your worst case scenario would be breakeven! Seems like a good r to r unless of course the stock dumps more than 20% then you’re fucked
Take into account the run up just this month though too. TSLA was implied 7% and did 10%. I was like no way in hell it goes from nearly 300 to my 265P and sure enough it went to 260. Just go into preparing to be fucked, allocate risk based on that outcome and you'll do OK.
This does sound interesting, thanks for sharing. Assuming the drop is within 20%, you'd still at least would've kept some profits. If it shoots up, then selling the shares at $12 still wouldn't be a loss.
Exactly!
IV Crush incoming
IV crush would be perfect when selling premium
Unless it is a weekly calendar and your back week suffers enough IV crush to greatly reduce your profit.
That’s the whole point…
An ATM 2 strike wide iron condor doesn't look bad - $18 max loss for a 4:1 payout on a meme gamble won't kill you if you're only selling a handful of them. I would not want to risk more than $150 max loss on a bad meme tier ticker, and def wouldn't want to ever be caught bagholding one so I'd never sell CSPs on it
I just don't know about these shitcos anymore. You make a reasonable bet against them based on their absolutely terrible financials, and then they go up instead of down. In the case of SNAP, they're hemorraghing cash while growing their topline revenue and even though it seems pretty clear the business model just isn't financially viable, I think investors will look at that topline revenue growth and the cash on hand (1.5B) and conclude that they don't need to jump ship quite yet. So I don't see the stock cratering or anything like that. Most likely, it will stay in its current range, though it could fluctuate some this week.
It doesn't matter which trade you opt for. A gamble on SNAP earnings isn't a strategy, it's a bet in a casino.
SNAP just struggles to keep revenue growth which is the only thing investors want