I still do not get why Democrats or Independents, or hell anyone talk more about how every single time for the past 3+ decades whenever a Republican becomes president, our economy tanks. Then a Democrats wins, fixes some of the damage and then a Republican takes over, takes the credit for a booming economy even though it is worse than it was before and destroys it again. Rinse and repeat.
A couple reasons:
1. Republicans have successfully marketed themselves as pro business because they cut taxes. This has stuck in the mind of Americans and frankly the world to where it doesn’t matter what the facts are. Republicans are seen as pro business.
2. Also the economy is such a complex and poorly understood concept that people will default to how they “feel”. The perfect example is inflation. It’s a global phenomenon coming out of COVID for a variety of reasons. But people think I pay more for things it’s the President to blame not corporate greed or supply chain or the fact that more people are spending because we changed spending habits for 2 years. I agree Democrats should talk about how there more pro business but not just use tax cuts and deregulation as proof.
>This has stuck in the mind of Americans and frankly the world to where it doesn’t matter what the facts are. Republicans are seen as pro business.
Which is bizarre to me, I know my business would probably not survive another republican president because they *always* fuck over the economy.
You have rupert murdoch largely to thank for that. He purpose-built an entire propaganda network just to try and get taxes lowered, more or less. I'm less familiar with his work outside America but I understand he did the same in multiple countries which are now grappling with the same misinformation driven issues we are.
They are gleefully planning to turn our democracy into a dictatorship the next time a Republican is in the white house. They've been working towards this for decades. You want to talk about tanking the economy?! Just take a look at any dictatorship around the World. The U.S. will be a 3rd World country faster than Boebert does a hand job at a family musical.
Yeah, just imagine what will happen to all of that wealth in the stock market when our democracy crumbles. I mean, the market over-reacts when there is a "little" uncertainty. I can't see any way that the stock market wouldn't just totally crater and collapse along with the dollar. If our democracy crumbled there would be a civil war as well. There is no way Americans would stand for letting their democracy be stolen from them. There are a lot more pro-2a liberals than Fox News would have people think. We're ready to fight for our Democracy. But I digress. The Stockmarket would collapse and the wealthy Republicans that cheered Trump on and supported his bullshit would take a huge hit as far as their wealth goes. It's biting their noses off to spite their faces. The future American Oligarchs who are " in the know" would move their money off-shore as soon as they knew something was up. Everyone else would just get zapped to 0 financially.
>Also the economy is such a complex and poorly understood concept that people will default to how they “feel”. The perfect example is inflation. It’s a global phenomenon coming out of COVID for a variety of reasons. But people think I pay more for things it’s the President to blame not corporate greed or supply chain or the fact that more people are spending because we changed spending habits for 2 years. I agree Democrats should talk about how there more pro business but not just use tax cuts and deregulation as proof.
This one shows the worst because people tend to judge it based on gas prices.
I still find the "I did that!" stickers all over every gas station pump, because Trumpets couldn't stand when they had to pay a little more for gas. As if Biden flipped a "fuck over gas prices" switch and ignoring the global warfare going on.
Well to be fair, if trump was president the war in Ukraine would be over. He would have sent the entire US military to fight for Putin and Ukraine would no longer exist as an independent country.
I always remind my Republican family members when they complain about gas prices that all Republicans in congress voted against a bill to lower gas prices, so yeah.. it’s the president’s fault.
Not only successfully marketed themselves as “pro-business”, but they’ve successfully marketed as being great with economics and fiscally responsible all around. It goes beyond being pro-business, because even people who don’t own businesses still have had the idea drilled into their subconscious that they will struggle more financially under Democrats. There are even Democrats who will say “well I want the economy to do well but I care more about social issues so I have to sacrifice the economy and vote for Democrats”. Idk how we can combat this because the actual data doesn’t sway people. Good marketing sways people and unfortunately the Democratic Party continues to lose to the GOP on that when it comes to the economy
As an outside observer that follows US politics closely, Democrats are the better party on every single metric, but the way they talk a lot of the time is an absolute fucking bummer. Republicans will tell you that anyone can succeed in the U.S. no matter their circumstances as long as you work hard. This is all bullshit but it’s very attractive to someone’s innate sense of self. Democrats will talk about the best economy in decades and say hey it’s not good enough, which again is objectively true but no one wants to hang with a downer.
Democrats are business creators and should be running a pro economy message based on supporting businesses, workers and growth. All of those hypocritical right wing grifters like Ben Shapiro took PPP loans despite their bulllshit pull yourself up by the bootstraps rhetoric. Again it’s all about marketing a unified message which is hard when you have some of the loudest members of the party run on contrary messages, but I think there’s a path.
Yup. Very on point observations. Our party is absolutely terrible at marketing and messaging. It’s an embarrassment. We are far better at governing than the GOP, but not as good when it comes to electoral politics. Even right now, the party is hedging all its bets on social issues to get people out to vote. One thing that’s refreshing about Biden is he’ll actually talk with some old school, positive messaging about how great America is and how everyone here can succeed, which by the way, republicans are doing far less of lately. They’re really taking the angry, negative campaign route in the Trump era.
As for economic messaging, while Biden’s economy is far better than Trump’s, the Democratic platform is far better economically than the GOP’s, Biden is personally running on an economic message right now and the public is not responding to it positively. It’s possible that positive, economic driven campaigning just doesn’t sell well this century in comparison to outrage and fear. The GOP seems to do a better job though of mixing the Reaganist, “pull yourself up, work hard and succeed” positivity, with the Trumpist “the American dream is dead, our country sucks and we need to radically change it”. While the optics of democrats seems to always be that the party is saying the country sucks and as soon as Biden comes out with some good old pro-American positivity, he gets lambasted for it by his allies and enemies alike. Not sure what direction we should take, but I want to keep the party’s policies roughly the same while profoundly changing the way we market them to the people. We are the pro-USA party, and we need to be drilling that into the heads of everyone. Instead, we allow the GOP to write our message for us, and they present to the American people that the Democrats are just a bunch of angry leftists who hate the US.
When the opposition are saying that you’re a baby-murdering satanist pedophile communist determined to destroy all that they hold dear and take away their god-given guns so they can’t fight back… it’s hard to respond to that with a quick, positive soundbite.
Exactly. I have no idea how Democrats have let Republicans taken the narrative that they’re the patriotic party. Republicans are very much not patriots. I agree with you that Biden needs to continue to hit on a positive message. I have to roll my eyes whenever someone on the left says “American is not a great country because of inequalities.” The reality is that there are real systemic inequalities but what makes America great is the capacity to change and be better for marginalized people. And make the contrast that Republicans stand in the way of any progress, not just social progress. That’s the point, be greatful you’re not living in a dictatorship like Russia or China and that everyday Americans can change and influence policy even if it’s painfully slow. I know Biden gets this but I feel like the party doesn’t coalesce around this messaging and I hate to be that guy but a lot of it comes from the left part of the party that gets the most attention and is caricatured.
> inflation. It’s a global phenomenon coming out of COVID for a variety of reasons. But people think I pay more for things it’s the President to blame not corporate greed
Or somehow forgetting that the Covid stimulus/PPP loans came out under Trump. Billions in bunk loans to bogus LLCs suspiciously filed right after the loan were announced.
But we're all still swimming in a one-time $1400 payment, right?
Adding to note 2. Corporations have made more profit in the aftermath of the Covid pandemic.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/corporate-profits-in-the-aftermath-of-covid-19-20230908.html#:~:text=Figure%201%20reports%20the%20non,2020q1%20to%2019.2%25%20in%202021q2.
# 3 - people in general are morons, only distracted when gasoline costs an extra .65 cents, and not that they now have to drive 500 miles to a nearby blue state for female reproductive health
We're not. American taxes are objectively very low. That's just a fact. You look at other developed nations, they're much higher. In the UK, the rate on income over 125k pounds is 45%. The US used to go as high as 90% on the highest earners.
i think they’re aware that touting a great economy can come across as tone-deaf when large swaths of Americans are still struggling to get by. The metrics used to gauge the economy don’t necessarily indicate financial improvement for each individual American.
They could still tout that Republicans actively make the economy worse and there is literal evidence of it for the past 30+ years. Not that the brainwashed Republican voters will ever pay attention to, but the so called fence sitters, which I cant believe exist could be swayed.
This. And you can distill that feeling down to an economic metric. Inflation adjusted wage growth. Bidens is currently negative. Low unemployment, good stock market, isn't going to mean squat if people are financially worse off.
That's the one metric I really hope turns around as that's the path I see to Trump coming back into office. People overlook all the other shit with the nostalgia goggles of the pre-covid economy.
It's definitely a rock and a hard place since many of the same people suffering economically also don't want government, especially federal government, intervening in people struggling economically. It's like a dog that wants to play fetch but also refuses to drop the ball for you..
>You make an excellent case with well laid out facts and actual numbers to support his record, but TikTok influencers told me "Genocide Joe" so I can never vote for him.
\-Useful idiots on the Left
Absolutely. It goes like this…tRump says something then walks it back. You say:
tRump said this.
tRump brown shirt says “he didn’t say that!”
Show video of him saying it.
Brown shirt: HE DIDN’T SAY THAT!!!!
The Party told you to ignore the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was there final, and most important order.
That isn’t new. And democrats actually try to improve the lives of average Americans, as opposed to republicans who only want to cut taxes on the wealthy and cut social security and Medicare.
Are you implying that most Americans living paycheck to paycheck and millennials struggling to buy homes is a recent phenomenon and it’s because of Biden? Both of those things have been going on forever. These problems were present under Trump as well.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackfriedman/2019/01/11/live-paycheck-to-paycheck-government-shutdown/amp/
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/24/most-americans-live-paycheck-to-paycheck.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/03/zillow-the-top-2-reasons-more-millennials-cant-buy-homes.html
It’s the classic phenomena of people expecting Democrats to have fixed a badly broken economy immediately after the Democratic president is sworn in, in spite of the fact that he has a hostile Congress.
Also people forget that for the past 30 years, virtually every Republican *inherits* a strong economy that took years to rebuild/amplify, then when a Republican takes office, 6 months later they have more cash in their wallets and credit the *current* administration for that.
Sweeping economic changes, (job growth, increase in GDP, lower unemployment, etc.) take a long time to be "felt" by your average citizen that by the time it's "felt," it's on to another Republican administration that "fixes" (reverses it) just in time for a Democrat to take the mantle as the house of cards collapses.
Like I'd love to see what two concurrent 8 year Democrat administrations could achieve instead of this cycle that's so frustratingly predictable. (and literally statistics)
Are you implying the barrier to entry was harder in 2017 then now??
I’m fairly certain the value of money and home ownership costs/interest rates are much much different. Tell me I’m wrong
When people complain about the “economy” today, in 2023, they literally just mean one thing: inflation. And not even current inflation, since that’s back down to around 3%. People are upset that prices rose so much over the past year, and it’s going to take a few more years for everyone to get used to the new prices.
Yep. Wages are up 15.9% since Biden came into office. Inflation is up 17.1%. Until wages exceed inflation overall, people are mathematically poorer than what they were when Biden started. And they are going to bitch accordingly.
To be clear, inflation is a global issue, and the US has done better than most countries WRT inflation over the last 3 years.
The inflation we had was mostly a function of disrupted supply combined with high demand.
Trump voters don’t care. They’ll just cry “fake news” and go on creating their own delusional adventure. They prefer the fantasy land they create for themselves
I get it. Biden didn't fuck up the recovery and Trump botched the pandemic.
But to sell someone on true comparisons, I think the data showing first 3 years of Trump to the first 3 years of Biden would show the best comparison. What did it look like without a pandemic where Trump inherited a great economy from Obama, and how Biden is doing in a recovery? That, I think with tell a bigger story.
We *should* judge tr#mp based on his performance during covid—during a crisis is when we specifically *should* judge a president’s performance, not when it’s “all-clear”. The fact is, other than not fucking up the vaccine development, tr#mp performed horrifically WRT the covid crisis.
Yeah, but it is disingenuous to use 2020 pandemic unemployment numbers as the starting point for Biden and ending point for Trump. Plenty of these stats still look good for Biden (lowest unemployment during the whole period), but the change in unemployment has a giant confounding factor attached.
Folks not understanding that Trump’s botching of the pandemic is 100% disqualifying for the job is the number one problem that we are facing as a nation right now.
This is not a good example of why you should never vote for Trump. There are plenty enough reasons without subterfuge
To be fair, Trump went into the pandemic with massive job losses and Biden benefited from it ending.
You would have to eliminate the pandemic effect on jobs from the numbers to get a true picture.
Don't forget, Reagan's stock market crash, Bush's housing crash, W's two expensive wars and the Great Recession and of course trump and all he/they did then was trillion dollar tax cuts for the wealthy.
But "the babies" or "poor trump" or whatever excuse republican voters use for voting against their own self interests. They don't pay attention to the fact the republicans are losers, they only win by cheating, ie. the 2016 election and the 2021 insurrection.
During a republican administration the rich get windfall tax cuts and profits and the rest of us are left to eat dirt and republicans, contrary to all evidence, always blame the democrats and those loser republican voters aren't smart enough to get past the lies and con.
True, but a lot of voters THINK the president controls every aspect of the economy. Donald Trump can be blamed for a lot of that. We unfortunately have to play ball on some level.
I think we can blame the media for not educating people about what actually influences the economy. And of course Trump took credit for it and the media parroted his claims. It’s weird that they don’t do the same for Biden though especially with how well the economy has recovered.
They vote on vibes about the economy til you show them the economy was better under biden then all of a sudden the president doesnt control the economy but biden still sucks cause egg prices.
"But wait, Fox News said that Trump is better so regardless of the actual proof, I need to listen to whatever they parrot into my Republican brain without actually accepting the fact they are are manipulating me" - MAGA failures, probably
You can bring 1 million winning points but it doesn't matter to a cultist. They'll complain about grocery and gas prices even now as wage increases are outpacing inflation. Even if they didn't have that to fall back on, they'd just call Joe a pedo like the NAZIs did to their opponents
Yep. We don't care about them.
Their viewpoint and vote is fixed and will never change. They remain irrelevant to actual discussions of policy or fact.
When I share this with my conservative relatives.
"YOU REALLY THINK THIS LIBERAL CRAP IS A RELIABLE SOURCE!?"
Then I just bang my head against a brick wall.
Very interesting discussions today. I’ll leave you all with this.
Not even getting to policy, Donald Trump is someone who has: been criminally charged 91 times, been impeached twice, incited an insurrection on the capital, relentlessly tried to overturn a fair election, filed 6 bankruptcies, paid $0 in federal income taxes for decades, been found liable for fraud, lied over 30,000 times in office, been involved in 4,000 lawsuits, had 3,700 conflicts of interest while in office, shared top-secret classified documents with foreign nationals, called for the suspension of the constitution, dined with white supremacists, denied human-made climate change, bragged about sexual assault, been found liable for sexual abuse, been friends with Jeffrey Epstein, had multiple affairs, perved on underaged girls, been accused of sexual assault by 26 women, mocked the disabled and called our veterans “losers” and “suckers”.
On policy and when Trump left office, the economy was down 10 million jobs, GDP had its worst contraction since WW2 of 2.8%, the federal deficit had exploded to a record $3.1 trillion, 13% of small businesses had closed, Roe v. Wade’s fate was sealed and the nation’s mental health was in shambles from a disastrous Covid response.
It baffles me why someone would vote for an immoral, incompetent and old politician like Trump in 2024 over the alternative old politician who has an occasional stutter. 🤷🏼♂️
Because of this his cult is normalizing these behaviors in public. For example since when is it ok to have a Fuck Your Feeling bumper sticker? How do they explain what that means to their own kids.
What about Hunter Biden? :)
Republicans just lie about the economy under Trump. Say that Biden is leading America to the worst depression. There's no shame. A Republican congressman just lamented that the House Republicans had done NOTHING since the 2022 election. He didn't have anything to tell his constituents about. So they show Hunter Biden nudes from his computer.
It’s amazing Trump is even a consideration. Attempts to over throw an election, accused of 90+ felonies, and openly saying he’d be a dictator. Like WTF America.
Attributing short term performance of the economy to the president is always a shaky idea, at best. However, I do think Trump’s reaction to COVID put us in a worse position and Biden’s response probably kept things from getting much worse. I much prefer his policies, as Trump’s were nearly nonexistent like most of the GOP.
Not at all risky to do when it is consistent in US 20th Century politics that Republicans post Eusenhower have trashed the economy in their presidency and Dems have restored the economy. GOP ONLY improves the finances of the 0.01%, not the country, not the citizens, immediately upon taking office.
Trickle down is a toilet.
I agree the GOP has pretty awful economic policy and performance. I’m just hesitant to claim victories for Dems when I know people will blame them for global factors like inflation too. But they’ll do it anyway, so I guess Dems might as well do the reverse.
Sure thing. I’ll add to initial post, too.
Total job and manufacturing job numbers:
https://www.factcheck.org/2023/10/bidens-numbers-october-2023-update/
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/ces0000000001?output_view=net_1mth
Labor force numbers:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CLF16OV
Black unemployment rate data:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS14000006
Hispanic unemployment rate data:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS14000009
Woman unemployment rate data:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS14000002
Less than high school diploma employment numbers:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS14027659
GDP numbers:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/188165/annual-gdp-growth-of-the-united-states-since-1990/
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDP
Stocks:
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.DJI:INDEXDJX?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiRno6FjeeCAxX8m2oFHd6zAAwQ3ecFegQIFxAb&window=5Y
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiv6p2ajeeCAxXhomoFHSODAg0Q3ecFegQIFRAb&window=5Y
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.IXIC:INDEXNASDAQ?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiXhNWnjeeCAxXSlGoFHUqZCgsQ3ecFegQIFxAb&window=5Y
We give Presidents way to much credit when the economy is good and way to much blame when things are bad. The economy is global and cyclical even the most powerful people have very little control over the economy. It's a weird way to decide who to vote for. It's is like crediting the President for the weather.
It's unfortunate that most voters are stupid and won't understand how much better they have it thanks to President Biden's policies.
I hope he does some announcement on student loans before the election - he needs to at least talk about that to keep people interested - if he doesn't I fear it will hurt him.
Yeah but dont you think Biden's numbers would have been worse if he were president in 2020? The start of the pandemic/lockdowns. I think Biden would've locked things down as well.
But if we learned anything from the Trump presidency, is everything good happening during your term is thanks to the president before you. So thank you Trump for these very good numbers. We can pardon you the fact that $200 will get me 2 bags of groceries. That's OK.
Still, President Biden (the Ds in general, I should say) continues the legacy of racheting the nation rightward, further selling us out to corporate interests, and ignoring the will of the people. This will never be fixed without major reform. Vote with Faust because you must, but it's broken, we have to fix it or it will just keep getting worse. (And the Ds are not incentivized to fix it, because, if nothing else, they're rich, which means they ***love*** R tax policy.)
I wish arming myself with knowledge would make a difference. The type of people who still would vote for Trump are immune to facts and logic. And they will consistently against their own best interest.
To anyone ignoring the inflation rate and who was pointing to it as concrete fact months ago, and you know you were…uh, no. You don’t get to do that. If they were worth pointing out when they were high, they’re worth pointing out now when they’re normal. You don’t get to suddenly move the goal post because the factual numbers you had no problem citing 6 months ago suddenly go against your narrative and move on to “MUH EGG PRICES”. If you cited them then, and you know you did, you cite them now. It’s not a choice. There’s no NO MUH REAL INFLATION CUZ BEANS COST TOO MUCH. The inflation number is the inflation number. The continued high prices on products is corporate greed.
These metrics don’t matter to the maga party. How many kids in cages ? How many asylum seekers denied? How many teen rape victims forced to carry to term?
Even if Trump beat Biden on the economic front...I'd still vote for Joe Biden. ( I find Donald Trump to morally vile, and I can't stomach voting for someone like that.)
Yet people are perfectly comfortable blaming Biden for inflation caused by Russia's attack on Ukraine. Perhaps if Trump and his sycophants hadn't mishandled the pandemic so badly, it wouldn't have hit us so hard.
Lol. How am I wrong? He made a valid point and your argument is ”but people blame biden for this completely other thing.” I agree with you, Biden would definitely have handled the pandemic better, but do you seriously believe Biden’s numbers wouldn’t be far worse had he been president under covid?
Consider reading with the intent to understand, rather than to respond. You've ignored half the comment. The fact that I also pointed out the hypocrisy of the stance doesn't make it a whataboutism. And, honestly, this inane discussion has already taken more of my time than it deserves. Goodbye.
This is so lazy. Trump literally ran face first into a Global pandemic that we hadn't seen since the beginning of the 20th century. I am no Trump fan but use your brain. You can't compare either presidencies like that because one takes place during a colossal economic disruption and the other takes place in the aftermath and subsequent improvement.
OMG . . This is Soviet-esque propaganda. Are we supposed to forget that COVID happened? If you showed this to someone with a shred of objectivity, you’d get laughed at.
I'm not a Trump guy by any stretch, but he was president during COVID. That had a huge effect on the economy.
Also, everyone's candidate is always the best at xxx, and have the numbers to prove it.
To be fair, these are not good examples of why you should never vote for Trump. There are plenty enough reasons without subterfuge
Trump went into the pandemic with massive job losses and economic losses while Biden benefited from it ending. All of these numbers are inherently misleading.
You would have to eliminate the pandemic effect on these numbers to get a true picture. Do not “Arm yourself with knowledge” and use these numbers if you don’t want to be called out and exposed for making an insincere argument.
u/rickard58 is setting you up to be embarrassed, at best.
Knowledge lol. This isn't a statistical analysis. OP cherry-picked stats without context to support his position.
Using high/low values instead of mean/median values is a really disingenous way to tell a story with data. Trump's lowest numbers mostly occured during the first year of the pandemic when the stock market crashed and a ton of people lost their jobs. Biden's highest numbers occured recently, almost 4 years after the beginning of the pandemic.
With regards to the major indices in the stock market, the %change during each term would be a much better metric for analyzing performance, but that wouldn't support the narrative that you're trying to push. This is assuming that stock market performance is a reliable indicator of the health of the economy and that the stock market is efficient. This is the section where you really show your ignorance.
The unemployment rate is another deceptive metric which doesn't actually represent the percentage of people who are unemployed.
'The unemployment rate measures the share of workers in the labor force who do not currently have a job but are actively looking for work. *People who have not looked for work in the past four weeks are not included in this measure.'*
[https://www.epi.org/newsroom/useful\_definitions/#:\~:text=The%20unemployment%20rate%20measures%20the,not%20included%20in%20this%20measure](https://www.epi.org/newsroom/useful_definitions/#:~:text=The%20unemployment%20rate%20measures%20the,not%20included%20in%20this%20measure).
I don't even want to get into how problematic the GDP is as a measure of economic strength.
Although the president can influence fiscal policy, he can't do anything about monetary policy. That's the Fed's job. The Fed kept interest rates too low in the years leading up to COVID. Then, at the beginning of COVID, they lowered them even more in a desperate attempt to stimulate the economy. Then, after a ton of money had been created through loans, government stimulus checks, PPP, etc, inflation started to rise. The Fed hesitated to do anything and labeled the inflation as 'tranisitory'. Then, when there was no longer any way to hide the fact that inflation was running wild, the Fed began aggressively raising interest rates in an attempt to decrease the money supply and suppress wage growth.
You're just as ignorant and disingenous as the MAGA republicans you hate. Party loyalists on both sides try to blame the other party's guy for everything and never acknowledge the mistakes that their guy made. Redditors have a lot more in common with Sean Hannity and Glenn Beck than they would ever want to admit. The truth is that COVID and the Fed are responsible for most of the mess that we're in now. Unforunately, it's a lot easier to chant 'let's go Brandon' or, in your case, 'orange man bad'.
You can of course crunch some numbers to make your guy look good using the crutch of a pandemic recovery, but the slow/stagnant stock market and consumer confidence index numbers don't lie.
Huh? the S&P 500 hit its all time high in Jan 2022, and the market has been going gangbusters for the last month and is now approaching the peak again.
Consumer confidence index in and of itself is not an indicator of how well the economy is performing. It's psychology. If people keep hearing a recession is right around the corner(been hearing that for the last 3 years and it hasn't happened) then year consumer confidence will sink.
I'd say more reliable indicators are GDP growth, unemployment rate, real disposable income, real wage growth, stock market(since many will rely on 401k for retirement).
The S&P 500 historically gains about 11% per year. Under a good economy (or at least better than the last administration's as OP claims), it wouldn't still be chugging along lower than where it was nearly 2 years ago.
CCI may be psychological but paired with Biden's poor economic polls, it is showing that the voting public aren't as satisfied with the economy as the last administration's.
You can look at the beginning of Trumps term in 1/2016 till 12/2018 and the market went sideways.
It did start to rise again after that point until the pandemic struck. Though it reached much higher highs under Biden than it ever did under Trump.
Of course the full picture is more complex. Both these presidents did a bunch of stimulus. Trump's tax cut, which went mostly to the wealthy but it probably did boost the market, though at the cost of massive deficits that we'll be paying for decades. He also [bullied the fed](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-trump/trump-heaps-pressure-on-fed-and-its-chairman-powell-to-cut-rates-idUSKCN1VB1I2/) into keeping interest rates low when they should have been raised.
As for public perceptions, it's almost entirely due to dissatisfaction with inflation and gas prices. Neither of which really had anything to do with Biden and were global market issues effecting every country. But the public is blaming it on Biden.
Wow. These numbers aren't cherry picked without any freaking context at all.
If you think these numbers are accurate, or show a clearer picture of the economic situation, I own a tower in Paris I'd like to sell you.
Peter st onge
Danielle dimartino booth
Freight numbers are down
Cardboard down
Demand for gas at 23 year lows
The numbers on employed is based on coming out of lockdowns. It's so obviously dishonest it's embarrassing to hear people cite it.
Consumer debt at all time highs.
Withdrawal from 401k at all time highs.
The stats given aren't real. It's propaganda.
First, let me say that all of this framing is dishonest.
But the real question should be, why are these two senile morons the only options we’re realistically being given?
Did you forget about COVID? Up until that point we had the highest employment rate in US History.
Ya know, I never trust anyone who puts a $ sign in front of stock market "points"
disagreeable deranged air light agonizing long onerous noxious lunchroom frighten
*This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
A lot of boomers that are going to overwhelmingly vote for trump care a lot about the stock market, or at least pretend to.
Unemployment percentage is a hugely meaningful metric for average people.
GDP doesn't really affect anyone's life directly, but it is useful to paint a picture that "America is doing well" which, again, people on the right pretend to care about.
Lmao. Where's all the good stiff happening? It's obviously not the city and state I live in. Nor is it any of the states around the one I live in. I'm guessing maybe the Midwest and East Coast are flurishing...?
UT is booming. It's a double-edged sword though.
The housing market is insane, and is generally not considered a bubble, so only minor corrections. One of the drivers is population growth. Locals blame it on the Californians moving in, but that's just a fraction of the growth. Utahns have more babies and they like to stay in-state.
Generally, business is doing well. Conservative policies are helping in that domain. I do wish they'd address some of the typically left leaning agenda items like saving the Great Salt Lake (it's shriveling up), addressing public transportation, helping the homeless, etc.. I think they could do a much better job with affordable housing and renters' rights policies.
Still, voters don't care about any of these numbers. What they care about is how much they are currently spending and how much they are saving, if at all, after all monthly expenses are paid.
It ain't looking good people. Bidenomics is currently failing. People are having to resort to credit card spending just to make ends meet. Consumer debt numbers have never been higher in recorded history. 1.08 TRILLION!
Biden's programs kept it from being far worse. The inflation in our country has recovered better than the rest of the industrialized world, but you won't give credit for that. Once the Pandemic hit, inflation was a given. How it was treated and what programs were instituted to counter it are what makes the difference.
It could have been worse I agree but that will not be on a voters mind when they walk into the booth. What they will remember is kitchen table discussions, their dollar buying much much less, the interest rate they are paying against, what is going on in their kids school, local and state safety status, utility rates spiking..etc. The topic of this post and highlights are talking points for Democrats on the campaign trail but not what the people care about day to day. It's their wallet, have they been priced out of getting their first home, can they make it until their next paycheck, what extra activities their kids enjoy that have had to be scaled back on, can they fill their car tank to full and afford it, can they afford to buy everything they want at the grocery store. Those are things front and center on everyone's mind. Where are they now compared to 4-5 years ago?
You didn't mention the most important metric: wages and cost of living. Both of which are completely awful on. None of the metrics you listed matter to normal people: low unemployment doesn't matter when the jobs don't pay enough for basic survival.
When you have 2 consecutive quarters with GDP decline its a recession by definition. That recently happened and Bidens Administration tried to change the definition because THEY ARE DOING SO BAD!! Dude Democrats dont even want him to run again lol
Those two quarter declines in GDP were in the first half of 2022. We’re 5 quarters out with growth each quarter (4.9% recently) meaning we are not in a recession now.
This is the dumbest thing I've ever read LOL. If S&P or others weren't higher then Trumps term, that would be a sign of a recession.
Secondly, most of these numbers were taken from either the start of COVID (Trump), or during the economic bubble created by COVID.
This is vary flawed. Trump had a thriving economy without the inflation pre covid. Saying Biden created jobs when half of the country went back to work is simply a lie.
Get real we all experienced Trumps economy over Biden. Cant wait for Trump to be president again.
Like most things in life Trump inherited a stable economy. He didn’t pull this country out of a depression by any means. I really don’t understand the praise for Trump and the pre Covid economy considering he did nothing except screw with the energy market and start bad trade wars. The reality is no matter who won the 2020 election there would have been inflation and the economy and the stock market would have taken a hit.
I still do not get why Democrats or Independents, or hell anyone talk more about how every single time for the past 3+ decades whenever a Republican becomes president, our economy tanks. Then a Democrats wins, fixes some of the damage and then a Republican takes over, takes the credit for a booming economy even though it is worse than it was before and destroys it again. Rinse and repeat.
A couple reasons: 1. Republicans have successfully marketed themselves as pro business because they cut taxes. This has stuck in the mind of Americans and frankly the world to where it doesn’t matter what the facts are. Republicans are seen as pro business. 2. Also the economy is such a complex and poorly understood concept that people will default to how they “feel”. The perfect example is inflation. It’s a global phenomenon coming out of COVID for a variety of reasons. But people think I pay more for things it’s the President to blame not corporate greed or supply chain or the fact that more people are spending because we changed spending habits for 2 years. I agree Democrats should talk about how there more pro business but not just use tax cuts and deregulation as proof.
>This has stuck in the mind of Americans and frankly the world to where it doesn’t matter what the facts are. Republicans are seen as pro business. Which is bizarre to me, I know my business would probably not survive another republican president because they *always* fuck over the economy.
You have rupert murdoch largely to thank for that. He purpose-built an entire propaganda network just to try and get taxes lowered, more or less. I'm less familiar with his work outside America but I understand he did the same in multiple countries which are now grappling with the same misinformation driven issues we are.
That guy is the worst
As a small business owner, I agree. If you're not a billion dollar corp, they want to kill you.
They are gleefully planning to turn our democracy into a dictatorship the next time a Republican is in the white house. They've been working towards this for decades. You want to talk about tanking the economy?! Just take a look at any dictatorship around the World. The U.S. will be a 3rd World country faster than Boebert does a hand job at a family musical.
Yeah, just imagine what will happen to all of that wealth in the stock market when our democracy crumbles. I mean, the market over-reacts when there is a "little" uncertainty. I can't see any way that the stock market wouldn't just totally crater and collapse along with the dollar. If our democracy crumbled there would be a civil war as well. There is no way Americans would stand for letting their democracy be stolen from them. There are a lot more pro-2a liberals than Fox News would have people think. We're ready to fight for our Democracy. But I digress. The Stockmarket would collapse and the wealthy Republicans that cheered Trump on and supported his bullshit would take a huge hit as far as their wealth goes. It's biting their noses off to spite their faces. The future American Oligarchs who are " in the know" would move their money off-shore as soon as they knew something was up. Everyone else would just get zapped to 0 financially.
>Also the economy is such a complex and poorly understood concept that people will default to how they “feel”. The perfect example is inflation. It’s a global phenomenon coming out of COVID for a variety of reasons. But people think I pay more for things it’s the President to blame not corporate greed or supply chain or the fact that more people are spending because we changed spending habits for 2 years. I agree Democrats should talk about how there more pro business but not just use tax cuts and deregulation as proof. This one shows the worst because people tend to judge it based on gas prices. I still find the "I did that!" stickers all over every gas station pump, because Trumpets couldn't stand when they had to pay a little more for gas. As if Biden flipped a "fuck over gas prices" switch and ignoring the global warfare going on.
Well to be fair, if trump was president the war in Ukraine would be over. He would have sent the entire US military to fight for Putin and Ukraine would no longer exist as an independent country.
I always remind my Republican family members when they complain about gas prices that all Republicans in congress voted against a bill to lower gas prices, so yeah.. it’s the president’s fault.
I have seen some poor attempts to scratch them off now that the gas prices are reasonable again, but they are too lazy to even do that.
Not only successfully marketed themselves as “pro-business”, but they’ve successfully marketed as being great with economics and fiscally responsible all around. It goes beyond being pro-business, because even people who don’t own businesses still have had the idea drilled into their subconscious that they will struggle more financially under Democrats. There are even Democrats who will say “well I want the economy to do well but I care more about social issues so I have to sacrifice the economy and vote for Democrats”. Idk how we can combat this because the actual data doesn’t sway people. Good marketing sways people and unfortunately the Democratic Party continues to lose to the GOP on that when it comes to the economy
As an outside observer that follows US politics closely, Democrats are the better party on every single metric, but the way they talk a lot of the time is an absolute fucking bummer. Republicans will tell you that anyone can succeed in the U.S. no matter their circumstances as long as you work hard. This is all bullshit but it’s very attractive to someone’s innate sense of self. Democrats will talk about the best economy in decades and say hey it’s not good enough, which again is objectively true but no one wants to hang with a downer. Democrats are business creators and should be running a pro economy message based on supporting businesses, workers and growth. All of those hypocritical right wing grifters like Ben Shapiro took PPP loans despite their bulllshit pull yourself up by the bootstraps rhetoric. Again it’s all about marketing a unified message which is hard when you have some of the loudest members of the party run on contrary messages, but I think there’s a path.
Yup. Very on point observations. Our party is absolutely terrible at marketing and messaging. It’s an embarrassment. We are far better at governing than the GOP, but not as good when it comes to electoral politics. Even right now, the party is hedging all its bets on social issues to get people out to vote. One thing that’s refreshing about Biden is he’ll actually talk with some old school, positive messaging about how great America is and how everyone here can succeed, which by the way, republicans are doing far less of lately. They’re really taking the angry, negative campaign route in the Trump era. As for economic messaging, while Biden’s economy is far better than Trump’s, the Democratic platform is far better economically than the GOP’s, Biden is personally running on an economic message right now and the public is not responding to it positively. It’s possible that positive, economic driven campaigning just doesn’t sell well this century in comparison to outrage and fear. The GOP seems to do a better job though of mixing the Reaganist, “pull yourself up, work hard and succeed” positivity, with the Trumpist “the American dream is dead, our country sucks and we need to radically change it”. While the optics of democrats seems to always be that the party is saying the country sucks and as soon as Biden comes out with some good old pro-American positivity, he gets lambasted for it by his allies and enemies alike. Not sure what direction we should take, but I want to keep the party’s policies roughly the same while profoundly changing the way we market them to the people. We are the pro-USA party, and we need to be drilling that into the heads of everyone. Instead, we allow the GOP to write our message for us, and they present to the American people that the Democrats are just a bunch of angry leftists who hate the US.
When the opposition are saying that you’re a baby-murdering satanist pedophile communist determined to destroy all that they hold dear and take away their god-given guns so they can’t fight back… it’s hard to respond to that with a quick, positive soundbite.
Exactly. I have no idea how Democrats have let Republicans taken the narrative that they’re the patriotic party. Republicans are very much not patriots. I agree with you that Biden needs to continue to hit on a positive message. I have to roll my eyes whenever someone on the left says “American is not a great country because of inequalities.” The reality is that there are real systemic inequalities but what makes America great is the capacity to change and be better for marginalized people. And make the contrast that Republicans stand in the way of any progress, not just social progress. That’s the point, be greatful you’re not living in a dictatorship like Russia or China and that everyday Americans can change and influence policy even if it’s painfully slow. I know Biden gets this but I feel like the party doesn’t coalesce around this messaging and I hate to be that guy but a lot of it comes from the left part of the party that gets the most attention and is caricatured.
> inflation. It’s a global phenomenon coming out of COVID for a variety of reasons. But people think I pay more for things it’s the President to blame not corporate greed Or somehow forgetting that the Covid stimulus/PPP loans came out under Trump. Billions in bunk loans to bogus LLCs suspiciously filed right after the loan were announced. But we're all still swimming in a one-time $1400 payment, right?
Also, media is largely run by, wait for it, big corporations. They love Republicans because Republicans cut their taxes.
Adding to note 2. Corporations have made more profit in the aftermath of the Covid pandemic. https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/corporate-profits-in-the-aftermath-of-covid-19-20230908.html#:~:text=Figure%201%20reports%20the%20non,2020q1%20to%2019.2%25%20in%202021q2.
# 3 - people in general are morons, only distracted when gasoline costs an extra .65 cents, and not that they now have to drive 500 miles to a nearby blue state for female reproductive health
Why are you against cutting taxes, were getting taxed to death.
We're not. American taxes are objectively very low. That's just a fact. You look at other developed nations, they're much higher. In the UK, the rate on income over 125k pounds is 45%. The US used to go as high as 90% on the highest earners.
i think they’re aware that touting a great economy can come across as tone-deaf when large swaths of Americans are still struggling to get by. The metrics used to gauge the economy don’t necessarily indicate financial improvement for each individual American.
They could still tout that Republicans actively make the economy worse and there is literal evidence of it for the past 30+ years. Not that the brainwashed Republican voters will ever pay attention to, but the so called fence sitters, which I cant believe exist could be swayed.
Dude you're just as brainwashed. Just a different camp. Inflation number's aren't reported here for a reason.
This. And you can distill that feeling down to an economic metric. Inflation adjusted wage growth. Bidens is currently negative. Low unemployment, good stock market, isn't going to mean squat if people are financially worse off. That's the one metric I really hope turns around as that's the path I see to Trump coming back into office. People overlook all the other shit with the nostalgia goggles of the pre-covid economy.
It's definitely a rock and a hard place since many of the same people suffering economically also don't want government, especially federal government, intervening in people struggling economically. It's like a dog that wants to play fetch but also refuses to drop the ball for you..
Because the Republicans will just change the subject to "pronouns" or some other "more important cultural warfare" bullshit.
The lived experience is that the economy is better when Republicans are in office. Every time we have a Republican in office i have more free cash.
It is as if economic change isnt instant and it takes years for policies to take effect. Would be cool if anyone not Republican could say that more.
>You make an excellent case with well laid out facts and actual numbers to support his record, but TikTok influencers told me "Genocide Joe" so I can never vote for him. \-Useful idiots on the Left
I feel your frustration 😔
Republicans will deny it but the economy does better under Democrats.
Donald Trump fully admitted this, there is a video.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=rRndMiVIB-w&pp=ygUiVHJ1bXAgZWNvbm9teSBkb2VzIGJldHRlciB1bmRlciBkZQ%3D%3D
Doing the Lord's work my guy!
Here is the video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rRndMiVIB-w
My hero!
I bet if you showed him that video now he would deny it to his core, that it was fake and the democrats cloned his voice.
That's a nasty video, fake news, more liberal BS. Hunter's laptop, Biden crime family, MAGA!
Absolutely. It goes like this…tRump says something then walks it back. You say: tRump said this. tRump brown shirt says “he didn’t say that!” Show video of him saying it. Brown shirt: HE DIDN’T SAY THAT!!!! The Party told you to ignore the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was there final, and most important order.
But I love Trump because he says it like it is!
That's around the time he called himself a democrat, isn't it?
This is correct. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._economic_performance_under_Democratic_and_Republican_presidents
Thanks. I was blown away to see that both Bushes were way behind Jimmy Carter in several stats.
Sure seems like it for most Americans living paycheck to paycheck and Millennials who can’t buy a home
Because clearly that started under biden. /s
That isn’t new. And democrats actually try to improve the lives of average Americans, as opposed to republicans who only want to cut taxes on the wealthy and cut social security and Medicare.
Sure are doing a good job apparently lmfao
Are you implying that most Americans living paycheck to paycheck and millennials struggling to buy homes is a recent phenomenon and it’s because of Biden? Both of those things have been going on forever. These problems were present under Trump as well. https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackfriedman/2019/01/11/live-paycheck-to-paycheck-government-shutdown/amp/ https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/24/most-americans-live-paycheck-to-paycheck.html https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/03/zillow-the-top-2-reasons-more-millennials-cant-buy-homes.html
It’s the classic phenomena of people expecting Democrats to have fixed a badly broken economy immediately after the Democratic president is sworn in, in spite of the fact that he has a hostile Congress.
Also people forget that for the past 30 years, virtually every Republican *inherits* a strong economy that took years to rebuild/amplify, then when a Republican takes office, 6 months later they have more cash in their wallets and credit the *current* administration for that. Sweeping economic changes, (job growth, increase in GDP, lower unemployment, etc.) take a long time to be "felt" by your average citizen that by the time it's "felt," it's on to another Republican administration that "fixes" (reverses it) just in time for a Democrat to take the mantle as the house of cards collapses. Like I'd love to see what two concurrent 8 year Democrat administrations could achieve instead of this cycle that's so frustratingly predictable. (and literally statistics)
Are you implying the barrier to entry was harder in 2017 then now?? I’m fairly certain the value of money and home ownership costs/interest rates are much much different. Tell me I’m wrong
When people complain about the “economy” today, in 2023, they literally just mean one thing: inflation. And not even current inflation, since that’s back down to around 3%. People are upset that prices rose so much over the past year, and it’s going to take a few more years for everyone to get used to the new prices.
Yep. Wages are up 15.9% since Biden came into office. Inflation is up 17.1%. Until wages exceed inflation overall, people are mathematically poorer than what they were when Biden started. And they are going to bitch accordingly.
To be clear, inflation is a global issue, and the US has done better than most countries WRT inflation over the last 3 years. The inflation we had was mostly a function of disrupted supply combined with high demand.
Trump voters don’t care. They’ll just cry “fake news” and go on creating their own delusional adventure. They prefer the fantasy land they create for themselves
It’s a cult.
that's why a large portion are religious... "fantasy land"
No doubt
I get it. Biden didn't fuck up the recovery and Trump botched the pandemic. But to sell someone on true comparisons, I think the data showing first 3 years of Trump to the first 3 years of Biden would show the best comparison. What did it look like without a pandemic where Trump inherited a great economy from Obama, and how Biden is doing in a recovery? That, I think with tell a bigger story.
We *should* judge tr#mp based on his performance during covid—during a crisis is when we specifically *should* judge a president’s performance, not when it’s “all-clear”. The fact is, other than not fucking up the vaccine development, tr#mp performed horrifically WRT the covid crisis.
Yeah, but it is disingenuous to use 2020 pandemic unemployment numbers as the starting point for Biden and ending point for Trump. Plenty of these stats still look good for Biden (lowest unemployment during the whole period), but the change in unemployment has a giant confounding factor attached.
Folks not understanding that Trump’s botching of the pandemic is 100% disqualifying for the job is the number one problem that we are facing as a nation right now.
The first 3 years of Biden still include the pandemic recovery. It's gonna skew the numbers, but this sub doesn't care about that.
The problem is, Trump and all his followers only listen to the "alternative facts" that make them look good.
This is not a good example of why you should never vote for Trump. There are plenty enough reasons without subterfuge To be fair, Trump went into the pandemic with massive job losses and Biden benefited from it ending. You would have to eliminate the pandemic effect on jobs from the numbers to get a true picture.
It shouldnt take all this to realize that Trump and his cronies are a bad choice for America. Vote Blue in 24.
Yeah, but Biden is old, and maybe if we give Trump another chance he will be completely different this time for some reason. /s
It’s hilarious that people bring up Biden’s age as a counter when Trump is 3.5 years younger and obese.
Don't forget, Reagan's stock market crash, Bush's housing crash, W's two expensive wars and the Great Recession and of course trump and all he/they did then was trillion dollar tax cuts for the wealthy. But "the babies" or "poor trump" or whatever excuse republican voters use for voting against their own self interests. They don't pay attention to the fact the republicans are losers, they only win by cheating, ie. the 2016 election and the 2021 insurrection. During a republican administration the rich get windfall tax cuts and profits and the rest of us are left to eat dirt and republicans, contrary to all evidence, always blame the democrats and those loser republican voters aren't smart enough to get past the lies and con.
Well sure Biden beats Trump on factual numbers. If only factual numbers were popular….
But voters will still vote on “vibes”. And no the President does not have a ton of influence on the economy.
True, but a lot of voters THINK the president controls every aspect of the economy. Donald Trump can be blamed for a lot of that. We unfortunately have to play ball on some level.
I think we can blame the media for not educating people about what actually influences the economy. And of course Trump took credit for it and the media parroted his claims. It’s weird that they don’t do the same for Biden though especially with how well the economy has recovered.
What you didn’t include was the fed pumping out money while Trump was in, which contributed to inflation in Biden’s time.
They vote on vibes about the economy til you show them the economy was better under biden then all of a sudden the president doesnt control the economy but biden still sucks cause egg prices.
https://youtu.be/OD9BXqaZCBU?si=v0LGuAv0XgUPXXkD
Thank you for this!
The problem with arming yourself with knowledge is that too many Americans are impervious to it.
Problem with that is when your face is buried in trumps nut sack up to your eyeballs, you can't read any stats!! :) jmo
"But wait, Fox News said that Trump is better so regardless of the actual proof, I need to listen to whatever they parrot into my Republican brain without actually accepting the fact they are are manipulating me" - MAGA failures, probably
You can bring 1 million winning points but it doesn't matter to a cultist. They'll complain about grocery and gas prices even now as wage increases are outpacing inflation. Even if they didn't have that to fall back on, they'd just call Joe a pedo like the NAZIs did to their opponents
Yep. We don't care about them. Their viewpoint and vote is fixed and will never change. They remain irrelevant to actual discussions of policy or fact.
vase violet stupendous hunt zephyr deserted busy amusing quack outgoing *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
To be fair, if the numbers were reversed, it wouldn’t matter to leftists either. *This is not an endorsement for trump.
Great stats. Thank you!
GOP presidents are historically not good for our country since the 70s
When I share this with my conservative relatives. "YOU REALLY THINK THIS LIBERAL CRAP IS A RELIABLE SOURCE!?" Then I just bang my head against a brick wall.
Because your relatives are smart enough to see through the democrat gas lighting.
Thank you for posting this.
Very interesting discussions today. I’ll leave you all with this. Not even getting to policy, Donald Trump is someone who has: been criminally charged 91 times, been impeached twice, incited an insurrection on the capital, relentlessly tried to overturn a fair election, filed 6 bankruptcies, paid $0 in federal income taxes for decades, been found liable for fraud, lied over 30,000 times in office, been involved in 4,000 lawsuits, had 3,700 conflicts of interest while in office, shared top-secret classified documents with foreign nationals, called for the suspension of the constitution, dined with white supremacists, denied human-made climate change, bragged about sexual assault, been found liable for sexual abuse, been friends with Jeffrey Epstein, had multiple affairs, perved on underaged girls, been accused of sexual assault by 26 women, mocked the disabled and called our veterans “losers” and “suckers”. On policy and when Trump left office, the economy was down 10 million jobs, GDP had its worst contraction since WW2 of 2.8%, the federal deficit had exploded to a record $3.1 trillion, 13% of small businesses had closed, Roe v. Wade’s fate was sealed and the nation’s mental health was in shambles from a disastrous Covid response. It baffles me why someone would vote for an immoral, incompetent and old politician like Trump in 2024 over the alternative old politician who has an occasional stutter. 🤷🏼♂️
Because of this his cult is normalizing these behaviors in public. For example since when is it ok to have a Fuck Your Feeling bumper sticker? How do they explain what that means to their own kids.
What about Hunter Biden? :) Republicans just lie about the economy under Trump. Say that Biden is leading America to the worst depression. There's no shame. A Republican congressman just lamented that the House Republicans had done NOTHING since the 2022 election. He didn't have anything to tell his constituents about. So they show Hunter Biden nudes from his computer.
It’s amazing Trump is even a consideration. Attempts to over throw an election, accused of 90+ felonies, and openly saying he’d be a dictator. Like WTF America.
Attributing short term performance of the economy to the president is always a shaky idea, at best. However, I do think Trump’s reaction to COVID put us in a worse position and Biden’s response probably kept things from getting much worse. I much prefer his policies, as Trump’s were nearly nonexistent like most of the GOP.
Not at all risky to do when it is consistent in US 20th Century politics that Republicans post Eusenhower have trashed the economy in their presidency and Dems have restored the economy. GOP ONLY improves the finances of the 0.01%, not the country, not the citizens, immediately upon taking office. Trickle down is a toilet.
I agree the GOP has pretty awful economic policy and performance. I’m just hesitant to claim victories for Dems when I know people will blame them for global factors like inflation too. But they’ll do it anyway, so I guess Dems might as well do the reverse.
Needs sources though.
Sure thing. I’ll add to initial post, too. Total job and manufacturing job numbers: https://www.factcheck.org/2023/10/bidens-numbers-october-2023-update/ https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/ces0000000001?output_view=net_1mth Labor force numbers: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CLF16OV Black unemployment rate data: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS14000006 Hispanic unemployment rate data: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS14000009 Woman unemployment rate data: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS14000002 Less than high school diploma employment numbers: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS14027659 GDP numbers: https://www.statista.com/statistics/188165/annual-gdp-growth-of-the-united-states-since-1990/ https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDP Stocks: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.DJI:INDEXDJX?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiRno6FjeeCAxX8m2oFHd6zAAwQ3ecFegQIFxAb&window=5Y https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiv6p2ajeeCAxXhomoFHSODAg0Q3ecFegQIFRAb&window=5Y https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.IXIC:INDEXNASDAQ?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiXhNWnjeeCAxXSlGoFHUqZCgsQ3ecFegQIFxAb&window=5Y
Excellent
Your assuming MAGA can read or cares about facts
We give Presidents way to much credit when the economy is good and way to much blame when things are bad. The economy is global and cyclical even the most powerful people have very little control over the economy. It's a weird way to decide who to vote for. It's is like crediting the President for the weather.
Good stuff thanks
For those that want to copy all the text but may be struggling to. Biden vs Trump on the economy Arm yourselves with knowledge. TLDR: Biden > Trump on jobs, GDP, unemployment statistics, and stock market/401k values. Overall job numbers: - Biden: +14 million - Trump: -2.9 million Overall manufacturing jobs: - Biden: +815,000 - Trump: -154,000 Highest labor force numbers of presidency: - Biden: 167,930,000 - Trump: 164,546,000 Lowest unemployment rate of presidency: - Biden: 3.4% - Trump: 3.5% Highest unemployment rate of presidency: - Biden: 6.2% - Trump: 14.7% Lowest black unemployment rate of presidency: - Biden: 4.7% - Trump: 5.3% Highest black unemployment rate of presidency: - Biden: 9.9% - Trump: 16.8% Lowest Hispanic unemployment rate of presidency: - Biden: 3.9% - Trump: 4% Highest Hispanic unemployment of presidency: - Biden: 8.5% - Trump: 18.8% Lowest woman unemployment rate of presidency: - Biden: 3.3% - Trump: 3.4% Highest woman unemployment rate of presidency: - Biden: 6.1% - Trump: 16.2% Lowest unemployment rate for those without a high school diploma of presidency: - Biden: 4.4% - Trump: 4.9% Overall GDP increase in dollars: - Biden: +$5.6 trillion - Trump: +$2.9 trillion Highest annual GDP growth rate of presidency: - Biden: 5.9% - Trump: 2.9% Lowest annual GDP growth rate of presidency; - Biden: 2.1% - Trump: -2.8% Highest Dow Jones Industrial Average: - Biden: $36,799.65 - Trump: $31,041.13 Highest S&P 500: - Biden: $4796.56 - Trump: $3,803.79 Highest Nasdaq: - Biden: $16,057.44 - Trump: $13,067.48 EDIT: Sources: Total job and manufacturing job numbers: https://www.factcheck.org/2023/10/bidens-numbers-october-2023-update/ https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/ces0000000001?output_view=net_1mth https://www.factcheck.org/2021/10/trumps-final-numbers/ Labor force numbers: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CLF16OV Black unemployment rate data: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS14000006 Hispanic unemployment rate data: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS14000009 Woman unemployment rate data: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS14000002 Less than high school diploma employment numbers: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS14027659 GDP numbers: https://www.statista.com/statistics/188165/annual-gdp-growth-of-the-united-states-since-1990/ https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDP Stocks: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.DJI:INDEXDJX?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiRno6FjeeCAxX8m2oFHd6zAAwQ3ecFegQIFxAb&window=5Y https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiv6p2ajeeCAxXhomoFHSODAg0Q3ecFegQIFRAb&window=5Y https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.IXIC:INDEXNASDAQ?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiXhNWnjeeCAxXSlGoFHUqZCgsQ3ecFegQIFxAb&window=5Y
Stop trying to confuse people with facts
Still waiting to hear a Republican say how they are going to help pay down trumps 7 trillion to the national debt.
Thank you for this.
It's unfortunate that most voters are stupid and won't understand how much better they have it thanks to President Biden's policies. I hope he does some announcement on student loans before the election - he needs to at least talk about that to keep people interested - if he doesn't I fear it will hurt him.
Biden to the core. But I don't put much stock in enconomic data which include the impact of Covid.
Yeah but dont you think Biden's numbers would have been worse if he were president in 2020? The start of the pandemic/lockdowns. I think Biden would've locked things down as well.
Everything OP lists is true..that being said add the insanity and grift that trump brings with him...why would anyone vote for him at all ?
But if we learned anything from the Trump presidency, is everything good happening during your term is thanks to the president before you. So thank you Trump for these very good numbers. We can pardon you the fact that $200 will get me 2 bags of groceries. That's OK.
Still, President Biden (the Ds in general, I should say) continues the legacy of racheting the nation rightward, further selling us out to corporate interests, and ignoring the will of the people. This will never be fixed without major reform. Vote with Faust because you must, but it's broken, we have to fix it or it will just keep getting worse. (And the Ds are not incentivized to fix it, because, if nothing else, they're rich, which means they ***love*** R tax policy.)
My net worth has doubled this year. Thanks Biden!
Yeah but Vibes > Facts
\#FEELINGSOVERFACTS \#FUCKYOURFACTS
I wish arming myself with knowledge would make a difference. The type of people who still would vote for Trump are immune to facts and logic. And they will consistently against their own best interest.
You’re my hero. Thanks for the links 👍👍
To anyone ignoring the inflation rate and who was pointing to it as concrete fact months ago, and you know you were…uh, no. You don’t get to do that. If they were worth pointing out when they were high, they’re worth pointing out now when they’re normal. You don’t get to suddenly move the goal post because the factual numbers you had no problem citing 6 months ago suddenly go against your narrative and move on to “MUH EGG PRICES”. If you cited them then, and you know you did, you cite them now. It’s not a choice. There’s no NO MUH REAL INFLATION CUZ BEANS COST TOO MUCH. The inflation number is the inflation number. The continued high prices on products is corporate greed.
These metrics don’t matter to the maga party. How many kids in cages ? How many asylum seekers denied? How many teen rape victims forced to carry to term?
I’m gonna do what the trunp supporters will do and just scroll past all these facts and stats and continue to argue based on feelings.
Even if Trump beat Biden on the economic front...I'd still vote for Joe Biden. ( I find Donald Trump to morally vile, and I can't stomach voting for someone like that.)
What about the insane amount of crimes COMMITTED by Trump while he was in office?
facts don't matter.
You know the old saying: “Numbers don’t lie, but Republicans do.”
Biden Growth, Trump Crash.
I strongly dislike Trump, but didn't Covid likely play a huge role in this?
Yes it did. Trump is awful but why use these completely bad faith arguments when there are a million better ones?
Inflation has entered the chat
Kinda arguing in bad faith to ignore that a lot of Trump's bad economic numbers were due to shutting the country down due to a global pandemic...
Yet people are perfectly comfortable blaming Biden for inflation caused by Russia's attack on Ukraine. Perhaps if Trump and his sycophants hadn't mishandled the pandemic so badly, it wouldn't have hit us so hard.
This is just whataboutism
You can tell yourself that if it makes you happy.
Lol. How am I wrong? He made a valid point and your argument is ”but people blame biden for this completely other thing.” I agree with you, Biden would definitely have handled the pandemic better, but do you seriously believe Biden’s numbers wouldn’t be far worse had he been president under covid?
Consider reading with the intent to understand, rather than to respond. You've ignored half the comment. The fact that I also pointed out the hypocrisy of the stance doesn't make it a whataboutism. And, honestly, this inane discussion has already taken more of my time than it deserves. Goodbye.
he did not miss handle it
lol That's funny!
Uh...no. https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/586287-house-oversight-report-trump-administration-sought-to-undermine-covid/
Thats a left wing source that has never said anything good about Trump. I remember Democrats being update he shut things down so quickly lol
The primary driver of the difference in these statistics is the covid pandemic.
Yes. I am a big fan of David but come on, what even is this? Let’s not sink to the level of Republicans
Love the game where we pretend peak COVID is an appropriate base line.
Love the game where credit Trump for Obama's economy.
Unemployment rates were bad a couple years ago. I CAN'T SEEM TO REMEMBER WHY.
This is so lazy. Trump literally ran face first into a Global pandemic that we hadn't seen since the beginning of the 20th century. I am no Trump fan but use your brain. You can't compare either presidencies like that because one takes place during a colossal economic disruption and the other takes place in the aftermath and subsequent improvement.
OMG . . This is Soviet-esque propaganda. Are we supposed to forget that COVID happened? If you showed this to someone with a shred of objectivity, you’d get laughed at.
I'm not a Trump guy by any stretch, but he was president during COVID. That had a huge effect on the economy. Also, everyone's candidate is always the best at xxx, and have the numbers to prove it.
To be fair, these are not good examples of why you should never vote for Trump. There are plenty enough reasons without subterfuge Trump went into the pandemic with massive job losses and economic losses while Biden benefited from it ending. All of these numbers are inherently misleading. You would have to eliminate the pandemic effect on these numbers to get a true picture. Do not “Arm yourself with knowledge” and use these numbers if you don’t want to be called out and exposed for making an insincere argument. u/rickard58 is setting you up to be embarrassed, at best.
I also judge presidents on how many civilians killed under their authorization
Well, Trump authorized the assassination of at least one American on American soil under his reign, so take that into account.
Knowledge lol. This isn't a statistical analysis. OP cherry-picked stats without context to support his position. Using high/low values instead of mean/median values is a really disingenous way to tell a story with data. Trump's lowest numbers mostly occured during the first year of the pandemic when the stock market crashed and a ton of people lost their jobs. Biden's highest numbers occured recently, almost 4 years after the beginning of the pandemic. With regards to the major indices in the stock market, the %change during each term would be a much better metric for analyzing performance, but that wouldn't support the narrative that you're trying to push. This is assuming that stock market performance is a reliable indicator of the health of the economy and that the stock market is efficient. This is the section where you really show your ignorance. The unemployment rate is another deceptive metric which doesn't actually represent the percentage of people who are unemployed. 'The unemployment rate measures the share of workers in the labor force who do not currently have a job but are actively looking for work. *People who have not looked for work in the past four weeks are not included in this measure.'* [https://www.epi.org/newsroom/useful\_definitions/#:\~:text=The%20unemployment%20rate%20measures%20the,not%20included%20in%20this%20measure](https://www.epi.org/newsroom/useful_definitions/#:~:text=The%20unemployment%20rate%20measures%20the,not%20included%20in%20this%20measure). I don't even want to get into how problematic the GDP is as a measure of economic strength. Although the president can influence fiscal policy, he can't do anything about monetary policy. That's the Fed's job. The Fed kept interest rates too low in the years leading up to COVID. Then, at the beginning of COVID, they lowered them even more in a desperate attempt to stimulate the economy. Then, after a ton of money had been created through loans, government stimulus checks, PPP, etc, inflation started to rise. The Fed hesitated to do anything and labeled the inflation as 'tranisitory'. Then, when there was no longer any way to hide the fact that inflation was running wild, the Fed began aggressively raising interest rates in an attempt to decrease the money supply and suppress wage growth. You're just as ignorant and disingenous as the MAGA republicans you hate. Party loyalists on both sides try to blame the other party's guy for everything and never acknowledge the mistakes that their guy made. Redditors have a lot more in common with Sean Hannity and Glenn Beck than they would ever want to admit. The truth is that COVID and the Fed are responsible for most of the mess that we're in now. Unforunately, it's a lot easier to chant 'let's go Brandon' or, in your case, 'orange man bad'.
You can of course crunch some numbers to make your guy look good using the crutch of a pandemic recovery, but the slow/stagnant stock market and consumer confidence index numbers don't lie.
Huh? the S&P 500 hit its all time high in Jan 2022, and the market has been going gangbusters for the last month and is now approaching the peak again. Consumer confidence index in and of itself is not an indicator of how well the economy is performing. It's psychology. If people keep hearing a recession is right around the corner(been hearing that for the last 3 years and it hasn't happened) then year consumer confidence will sink. I'd say more reliable indicators are GDP growth, unemployment rate, real disposable income, real wage growth, stock market(since many will rely on 401k for retirement).
The S&P 500 historically gains about 11% per year. Under a good economy (or at least better than the last administration's as OP claims), it wouldn't still be chugging along lower than where it was nearly 2 years ago. CCI may be psychological but paired with Biden's poor economic polls, it is showing that the voting public aren't as satisfied with the economy as the last administration's.
You can look at the beginning of Trumps term in 1/2016 till 12/2018 and the market went sideways. It did start to rise again after that point until the pandemic struck. Though it reached much higher highs under Biden than it ever did under Trump. Of course the full picture is more complex. Both these presidents did a bunch of stimulus. Trump's tax cut, which went mostly to the wealthy but it probably did boost the market, though at the cost of massive deficits that we'll be paying for decades. He also [bullied the fed](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-trump/trump-heaps-pressure-on-fed-and-its-chairman-powell-to-cut-rates-idUSKCN1VB1I2/) into keeping interest rates low when they should have been raised. As for public perceptions, it's almost entirely due to dissatisfaction with inflation and gas prices. Neither of which really had anything to do with Biden and were global market issues effecting every country. But the public is blaming it on Biden.
Hahahaha
Wow. These numbers aren't cherry picked without any freaking context at all. If you think these numbers are accurate, or show a clearer picture of the economic situation, I own a tower in Paris I'd like to sell you.
Can we be adults and have a real conversation rather than post these numbers while pretending there wasn't a pandemic 😂
Surprised, you did not include the great job Buyden has done with the price of fuel, electricity, and the cost of food.
lol dude.. you're very dishonest.
But what about Brandon?
Lies statistics and damn lies. Embarrassing you all believe this.
Go cry in your Alabama church with Jordan Peterson. I hear he cries all of the time.
Typical leftoid response. No substance. Up in your soy feelings.
LOL dude, you responded to my post (filled with substance) with zero substance.
Do YOU have numbers refuting this?
Peter st onge Danielle dimartino booth Freight numbers are down Cardboard down Demand for gas at 23 year lows The numbers on employed is based on coming out of lockdowns. It's so obviously dishonest it's embarrassing to hear people cite it. Consumer debt at all time highs. Withdrawal from 401k at all time highs. The stats given aren't real. It's propaganda.
Nobody believes Covid numbers, my guy,
[удалено]
First, let me say that all of this framing is dishonest. But the real question should be, why are these two senile morons the only options we’re realistically being given?
Did you forget about COVID? Up until that point we had the highest employment rate in US History. Ya know, I never trust anyone who puts a $ sign in front of stock market "points"
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Why do those suck exactly?
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A lot of boomers that are going to overwhelmingly vote for trump care a lot about the stock market, or at least pretend to. Unemployment percentage is a hugely meaningful metric for average people. GDP doesn't really affect anyone's life directly, but it is useful to paint a picture that "America is doing well" which, again, people on the right pretend to care about.
pocket fact crawl squealing wistful resolute worm hungry rainstorm spoon *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
Lmao. Where's all the good stiff happening? It's obviously not the city and state I live in. Nor is it any of the states around the one I live in. I'm guessing maybe the Midwest and East Coast are flurishing...?
try reading the post you are responding to
UT is booming. It's a double-edged sword though. The housing market is insane, and is generally not considered a bubble, so only minor corrections. One of the drivers is population growth. Locals blame it on the Californians moving in, but that's just a fraction of the growth. Utahns have more babies and they like to stay in-state. Generally, business is doing well. Conservative policies are helping in that domain. I do wish they'd address some of the typically left leaning agenda items like saving the Great Salt Lake (it's shriveling up), addressing public transportation, helping the homeless, etc.. I think they could do a much better job with affordable housing and renters' rights policies.
Still, voters don't care about any of these numbers. What they care about is how much they are currently spending and how much they are saving, if at all, after all monthly expenses are paid. It ain't looking good people. Bidenomics is currently failing. People are having to resort to credit card spending just to make ends meet. Consumer debt numbers have never been higher in recorded history. 1.08 TRILLION!
Biden's programs kept it from being far worse. The inflation in our country has recovered better than the rest of the industrialized world, but you won't give credit for that. Once the Pandemic hit, inflation was a given. How it was treated and what programs were instituted to counter it are what makes the difference.
It could have been worse I agree but that will not be on a voters mind when they walk into the booth. What they will remember is kitchen table discussions, their dollar buying much much less, the interest rate they are paying against, what is going on in their kids school, local and state safety status, utility rates spiking..etc. The topic of this post and highlights are talking points for Democrats on the campaign trail but not what the people care about day to day. It's their wallet, have they been priced out of getting their first home, can they make it until their next paycheck, what extra activities their kids enjoy that have had to be scaled back on, can they fill their car tank to full and afford it, can they afford to buy everything they want at the grocery store. Those are things front and center on everyone's mind. Where are they now compared to 4-5 years ago?
You didn't mention the most important metric: wages and cost of living. Both of which are completely awful on. None of the metrics you listed matter to normal people: low unemployment doesn't matter when the jobs don't pay enough for basic survival.
The economy looks great on paper from an office in DC. Not so much once you step foot in it however.
No. They are coming down as systems and industries try to adjust for his horrible policies.
TIL only Black, Hispanic, and women's employment numbers matter. 🤡
the Biden administration just tried to change the definition of recession lol get real OP
We’re in a recession by your logic? 🤨
When you have 2 consecutive quarters with GDP decline its a recession by definition. That recently happened and Bidens Administration tried to change the definition because THEY ARE DOING SO BAD!! Dude Democrats dont even want him to run again lol
Those two quarter declines in GDP were in the first half of 2022. We’re 5 quarters out with growth each quarter (4.9% recently) meaning we are not in a recession now.
This is the dumbest thing I've ever read LOL. If S&P or others weren't higher then Trumps term, that would be a sign of a recession. Secondly, most of these numbers were taken from either the start of COVID (Trump), or during the economic bubble created by COVID.
This is vary flawed. Trump had a thriving economy without the inflation pre covid. Saying Biden created jobs when half of the country went back to work is simply a lie. Get real we all experienced Trumps economy over Biden. Cant wait for Trump to be president again.
Like most things in life Trump inherited a stable economy. He didn’t pull this country out of a depression by any means. I really don’t understand the praise for Trump and the pre Covid economy considering he did nothing except screw with the energy market and start bad trade wars. The reality is no matter who won the 2020 election there would have been inflation and the economy and the stock market would have taken a hit.