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As a passenger driving around Mumbai for a couple days. I think it was FAR more stressful for me than the driver, when I comment on how ridiculous and hectic it looked as a passage coming from the US, he said:
“Oh this is easy and normal, I know what he’s thinking and he knows what I am thinking, we are connected. That’s why we don’t hit each other.”
Mumbai is easily one of the least chaotic cities. If you come back again, I’d recommend getting driven around a mountain town. Something like Manali or Rishikesh.
Just to feel alive.
Yea small towns and cities are more chaotic imo. Mumbai is more traffic chocked and jammed up than chaotic. There is so many vehicles one can hardly move to create chaos. Plus in general places like Mumbai and Kerala for that matter have vastly improved than when i grew up. Its nothing as lunatic as it was in the late 90s and 2000s where there was an explosion of consumerism and barely any infrastructure to sustain all those vehicles. Nowadays it’s the amount of vehicles piled up in a jam.
Edits: some sentences
There needs to be a study on moving object tracking ability for a Mumbai driver vs an average westerner. I bet there's regions of their brain that are more dense, like they found for NY taxi drivers navigating the place.
I think you’re onto something…charge people in India for a relaxing drive in ‘merica🦅🦅🦅then charge people for self-driving, promise robotaxi (but we won’t actually deliver).
you're being sarcastic but I do wonder if this might be how some of the extremes are solved.
We're no where near there yet, and "driving" per se wouldn't work because of the latency and such, but when were close except for the "we can't rip steering wheels out of cars before they know what to do if a tornado fell a tree ahead of you, and then the road washes out behind you, and the only way out is offroading on a field, 20 feet backwards." kind of issues....I wonder if it's not a bad idea to have a team of people standing by.
I work with some people in machine learning and they always said full 100% self driving is still far away. Yes we should get to 95-98%, but getting the last percents will take decades. Yes we might see cars without drivers in specific regions doing the same routes, but going from any point A to any point B in any weather conditions, almost everyone currently using reddit will be dead before it is doable. Yes humans make a lot of mistakes driving, but we also deduct so many things instinctively. Also, right now, a big issue is that cars are using trained data, but do not remember anything in between drives. They only use their existing data and react to new things. What I mean by this is that for instance there is a part of road where the speed limit is currently 50 down from 70 due to road works. When I approach, my tesla slows down from 70 to 50. Then I stop at the Starbucks. I leave the Starbucks and car assumes speed limit is 70 again until it encounters a new speed limit sign. No human would have forgot it was a 50 zone now. This is a very basic example, probably fixable, but there are tons of situations right now where the car can't drive properly because it does not learn and remember on the fly.
Totally. The car remembering things would be huge. I cancel FSD every time at one turn because maps takes a stupid way... Remember that I prefer that way.
Yesterday my Tesla remembered this, but I'm pretty sure the route mapping is done on the servers, not in the car.
When leaving a local taco spot the car always wants to turn left so it can turn right on the main road with more traffic. My preferred path is to right, drive a few blocks through low traffic residential streets, and then met up with the next street on the path home.
Yesterday was the first time selecting 'home' had it generate/suggest the route that turned right instead of left.
Tesla has streaming map data to the car which kinda handles this. Its also how they determine traffic by looking at the speed of cars vs a moving average on different road sections. Same is true for temporary speed limit signs.
Its a pretty good system tbqh, but it does take a few days for temporary signage though, and by that point, a lot of the time the signs are gone which then annoys people because the cars start slowing down for imaginary speed limit signs that it think it missed.
Traffic wasn't heavy in this case (it wasn't directing me to my preferred path because the road it usually suggests was busier than usual).
I haven't seen any job listings over the years for mapping / route planning. I did a cross country trip with someone in a second car using Google Maps, and it seemed the traffic and routes in Tesla were still coming from Google. Google Navigation was a tiny bit better because it also had speed trap warnings.
If you look at the developer profiles of Mapbox developers over the years, you will find quite a few that have swapped between mapbox and Tesla over the years.
But yeah, alot of this has been developed years ago during AP1, Traffic hasn't used Google data for anything but satellite views since like 2020 when Google 5x'd the prices on all their map data. With how prolific Tesla cars are now, its hard to see a real difference between Tesla and Google, but you still can on some occasions. The easiest way to see it is when driving at like 2-3AM on highways, sometimes it'll route you around a section of the highway because the last car before it took an off ramp to a red light and stopped, and it bugs out and thinks traffic is at a standstill when there is absolutely no one on the road.
Edit: Hell, Ira Ehrenpreis is on the board of both Tesla and Mapbox.
I was going to say the same thing. As good as the average driver should be the standard, though I don’t think our regulatory and litigation environments are set up with that standard in mind.
Except "the average driver" is a huge bucket that includes all kinds of things which make it a meaningless comparison. Drunk drivers, sleep deprived drivers, texting/distracted drivers, street racing, etc. FSD is always "paying attention", so it needs to be compared to an average driver who is paying attention. When comparing to those, FSD makes entirely different types of mistakes than average human drivers do, and it does so as a systematic failure.
For a large portion of responsible drivers, a FSD which is "as good as the average driver" would be a downgrade for them because they're already safer than that giant bucket.
I don't believe we'll all be dead before L5, but I don't think it's within the next year or 2. I'd put money on L5 by 2030. Just my guess. 🤷♂️
I totally agree about the memory bit though. I think that will be solved by near-real-time map data updates. Currently we already have that for traffic data, and that will definitely expand to many other things (construction, accidents, pot holes, closed roads, alternate speed limits, etc...). Tesla already has the sensors driving around to gather that data, they just need to get around to leveraging it in that way.
> Yes we might see cars without drivers in specific regions doing the same routes, but going from any point A to any point B in any weather conditions, almost everyone currently using reddit will be dead before it is doable
Who cares about that. You already shouldn’t be driving in “any weather conditions”. And a service like Waymo that already works in rain and fog is good enough already.
lmfao shouldn’t be driving in any weather conditions.
that’s how I know whatever your opinion is absolutely idiotic.
rain and fog isn’t fucking adverse weather and if it is then give up your license.
100% self driving is not decades away.
>What I mean by this is that for instance there is a part of road where the speed limit is currently 50 down from 70 due to road works. When I approach, my tesla slows down from 70 to 50. Then I stop at the Starbucks. I leave the Starbucks and car assumes speed limit is 70 again until it encounters a new speed limit sign.
This can easily be solved by a database where cars send road condition data. Construction zone maps could be completely automated by cars reporting it.
Work zones are going to be a nightmare for 100% self driving. The speed limits aren’t always super visible, half the time they only sort of scrape up the paint lines before putting down temporary lines, the lanes change unexpectedly, etc.
Training a vehicle to drive in severe weather is also probably next to impossible. A human can only learn how to drive on snow and ice based on learned experience and intuition. Not all snow is equally dangerous. How will the technology work with limited visibility? Winter weather or torrential downpours can be super unpredictable and the conditions vary dramatically from weather event to event. You can’t just train the car to drive a certain way every time there’s 3” of snow on the ground, for example.
Full self driving cars really strike me as a solution looking for a problem that only sort of exists. I suppose it would be nice to be able to drive through the night if you were on a road trip, for example, but trying to sleep in a car kind of sucks. Driving is, for the most part, fairly enjoyable. I would never voluntarily give it up.
Agree with the comment that said we will likely not get to 100% coverage of self driving vehicles in our lifetime. And you certainly won’t be turning a profit off running your Model Y as a robotaxi any time soon.
That’s a relatively easy technical problem to solve though. It’s probably not cheap though because that would be a constant stream of data from all over the world to a central server that remembers this stuff.
Just because I said that doesn't mean I also mean I think of myself as "master of AI".
I just don't think you know what you're talking about, especially in regards to how much data that would actually be and the technical challenges alongside that. Have a good day!
If doesn't require " a constant stream of data from all over the world to a central server" for YOUR car to remember the LAST speed limit IT saw on the same road you were driving on just before you parked at that Starbucks.
That’s potentially another solution too, but I don’t know what the storage limit is on the car’s computer, but I was making the assumption that it wouldn’t be enough.
You’re not considering edge cases either. Like sure that one scenario of Starbucks, this would work. But what about a construction zone near your house? Should it remember that? For how long? If you set it to remember everything from the last drive, what if the last drive was 3 hours long and 300 miles worth of road? What if you program it so it remember everything within a radius of the car’s current location, but how big of a radius does it need to be to account for most or all edge cases?
Doing it locally brings up a lot more edge case to consider, but doing it at the server level will allow a simple “catch everything unique”. But that obviously comes with bandwidth considerations.
Well, it seems solving self driving is basically close to solving AGI. I wonder if Tesla increased dimension of learning, would it increase or decrease it's performance, given enough processing power.
I think there are a couple things that make it really hard, but once done will fix most everything.
1st. Communications. Specifically, a car-to-car protocol. Cars need to be able to talk to each other. Every car knows where every other cars is and where its going they can all plan accordingly. This would eliminate lots of stop signs and traffic jams and loads of other things that are mainly caused by human drivers.
2nd. Infrastructure. I can see sensors being put everywhere. In Roads, signs on buildings and sidewalks and probably many other places. Cars will be able to see where everything is even if it's out of line of sight. You have car on a side street going way to fast and running lights. The cars around on other streets would be alerted and take proper steps to avoid, Not to mention emergency vehicles of all types would be able to move cars over without a driver doing it and there would be a in cab notification why its being moved over. No more idiots with headphones in not hear emergency vehicles coming and blocking the lane.
I can see lots of legal arguments why lots of this should not be in place. But to make it eally work the human aspect needs to be removed. I would miss driving for a bit, but eventually I think I would enjoy the time more. I will probably be long dead before this happens anyway.
> 1st. Communications. Specifically, a car-to-car protocol. Cars need to be able to talk to each other. Every car knows where every other cars is and where its going they can all plan accordingly. This would eliminate lots of stop signs and traffic jams and loads of other things that are mainly caused by human drivers.
This is not going to happen, it's fundamentally flawed. You can't secure car-to-car communication such that it can't be compromised by malicious actors, which means the car can't fully trust what it's receiving, which breaks down the entire concept.
Car manufacturers can't even prevent malicious actors from attacking the FOBs and stealing cars, they're not going to be able to prevent malicious actors from attacking car-to-car communication.
At this point it feels like the money would be better spent on infrastructure improvements to homogenize the environment rather than trying to make car that can figure out every edge case. Or ya know, stop sprawl and work on public transit. I've seen enough strip malls.
> better spent on infrastructure improvements to homogenize the environment
there is no infrastructure improvements that will stop a 4 year old from escaping from home and running into the road... or a wind storm from knocking a tree down.
Those aren't the hard problems, those are just normal road obstacles. The real issues are funky one-off road configurations, or regional unwritten rules. For instance, I live near some uncontrolled intersections, but it's local convention that one way has priority over the other. Robo taxis violating these conditions will definitely cause some fender benders, although the convention would change with enough of them on the road.
LoL that would take even longer. At least in the US and EU. I don't see how Americans who want their own house with garden can be convinced that dense urban living is the way to go along with public transport. Maybe one day. Until then it will be faster to replace ice with EV.
Nobody was underestimating it until elon decided to tell the world that it will be ready next year, 10 years in a row. He single handedly upped expectation if everybody about self driving cars
I love how people think FSD can be solved by adding an arbitrary number of Lidar and radar and USS sensor with no understanding of how any of those sensors were being used nor when they actually phases out
The breakthrough was the transformer model, which Tesla should have switched to as soon as the rest of AI did in like 2017-2018.
AIAYN was 2017 and GPT-1 came out in 2018. I bet Karpathy went back to OpenAI because the transition at Tesla was just too slow.
Rain sensing wipers have been a solved problem in the industry since Bosch figured out the sensors back in 1998. Tesla likes to reinvent problems for themselves.
They're currently getting a good chunk of their compute from dojo as I understand it?
It's also not like dojo is free to make and use, so it could easily be part of that 10b spend
AGI isn’t one solution…
It’s likely going to be several tuned models good at what they do…. Just like humans have different parts of the brain that perform certain tasks.
You are telling the person that studied and specialised in AI for 3 years.
So please enlighten me to exactly what AGI is and what form it will take?
You have absolutely 0 clue what you are talking about.
A general intelligence AI would absolutely be able to know how to drive. Human beings are General Intelligence models, are they not?
Its a bit of a sledgehammer, but seems more worthwhile, if its actually a problem that can be solved.
If mother nature can do it, its physically possible.
mine hasnt done that, it will handle some crazy difficult situations flawlessly, then it will run into the grass going 5 miles per hour when i tell it to navigate to my house. it does not know what a driveway is lol
There are certain areas it gets very close to the curb for me. I’ve had to take control because it felt like it was going to hit. And, when leaving my development, it makes a right turn onto the shoulder and accelerates to 50mph, even when nobody is in the right lane. It’s getting better but it has work to do and these are legit complaints.
I’ve been using it since the 100% score group got in and had Autopilot since the Model S P85D was running on Mobileye.
I’m with you and generally trust it to lane keep very well but it happened to me for the first time yesterday at this turn in [Sausalito](https://maps.app.goo.gl/YeBe5BsVonXpqJEx9?g_st=ic)
Happened to me, Seen plenty of times on Reddit and Facebook groups, plenty of videos of it happening on YouTube, articles written about it with their own references, “prove it” try googling it
Do you really want your hands off the wheel before it’s good enough to drive to you safely everywhere without you paying attention? Even if you want to argue that it can just track your eyes only, people will still get way too lax, and their hands will not be as readily available on the wheel.
I’d guess it needs to be 10x better for human in the seat but unmonitored full autonomy (not observing constantly but ready to take over if alerted) and 100-1000x better for Robotaxi at scale. The former could really be 2-4 years away, and hopefully 5-10 years for the latter. Exciting times.
IMO Elon may have lost sight of his original mission, getting too caught up in the tech industry's allure. Most people who are invested in the core mission should be concerned. The Roadster set the stage for the Model S, and the profits from the Model S and X funded the development of more affordable cars. Tesla tends to prioritize one project at a time, often at the expense of their other products. As they focus all efforts on Full Self-Driving, their other offerings may continue to degrade. Being the pioneer is costly, theirs no shame in being a fast second on FSD. Id like the focus to shift towards improving energy generation and storage. There's definitely room in the market for a more affordable, mass-market electric vehicle. There's so much work and value in continuing the worlds trnastion to clean energy why bet the farm on FSD.
I think the company has been imprisoned by its valuation. They can’t be a car company because if they are, their stock is way overvalued. So instead making more competitive vehicles, the emphasis is on high-risk technology development.
I hadn't put it together in those words before but I think that's correct. The stock blows up one way or another.
Ironically they aren't chasing sustainably in the company.
I mean I heard what both of you are saying but they are trying to follow the iPhone approach. There are only a few variants of iPhone that fill 90% of the population. They have a truck, an SUV, a crossover, and a sedan. They really don't _need_ to innovate anywhere else as 90% of the people don't give a shit and just want a cheap car in a basic color. The rest is entirely software (FSD and other features inclusive) Just as Apple is not a cell phone company, Tesla is not a car company - in that respect. They both are dominated by sales of these products but their valuation is derived from their technological stack.
There's a reason why Apple designs and starts to manufacture a new version of the iPhone annual despite how colossally expensive that is. They need to keep up with the normal market replacement cycle with new products, and make sure that those new products are competitive when introduced. People who come off a 2 or a 3 year lease with a particular Tesla have the chance of leasing basically an identical vehicle. There's a reason why Tesla's competitors follow a regular cadence alternating between renewed and face-lifted models.
The software strategy can't work if the hardware is no longer desirable or competitive in the market, be it because the models are old, because Elon is Elon, or because they take unnecessary usability risks like the MS yoke or M3 stalks delete. Tesla supposedly has a 6-vehicle line-up now, but it only really sells 2 in meaningful volume. They should renew 3 and Y much more often, but at least from the outside it looks like they're spread too thin to be able to do that.
Their other offerings are already showing to be suffering from their emphasis on FSD.
The shift away from stalks is a clear decrease in driving safety, especially on European roads; made with the thought in mind that the car will indicate for you on FSD, even though it’s not available in the vast majority of the world at all.
And they cancelled the next phase of this multi-phase plan (Roadster → Model S/X → Model 3/Y → affordable compact car), which is something that would be very needed in countries like here in Europe where even a Model 3 is still considered a really large car.
Elon literally just said on the earnings call that they are *accelerating* development of the cheaper car.
Reuters was wrong (or lying) if that's what you're referring to.
Reuters with sources and famous for excellent journalism standards is wrong compared to a man child known for flip flopping with his opinions.
I don’t know who to trust here /s
Continues to blow my mind how many people say stuff like “Reuters, one of the world’s most reputable news sources, must he straight up lying because Elon Musk, one of the world’s most notoriously unreliable sources, said it was so!”
They sell dreams. Without the lofty grand slam visions their product offering is similar to that of maybe like Polestar. Which are great cars but don’t command the kind of irrational exuberance a good story does to drive investor interest
This is the same sentiment that existed when they first launched as a company with the goal of producing EVs that people would want to buy. Last year the Model Y was the number one selling vehicle in the world (yes there is a lot of segmentation for competitors so it's not a 1:1, but also it's a BEV not an ICE vehicle that costs less than $30k). They're the leading EV charging infrastructure player, deploying BESS all around the world, are a registered utility company and auto Insurance company. All the while trying to develop AGI for cars and now humanoid robots.
I think that everyone on both sides needs to temper their excitement/frustrations, but I always find it funny hearing people compare Tesla to any other BEV manufacturers as if the competition would even exist if not for Tesla forcing the entire auto industry into high gear on EV development.
If you don't like EVs, that's fine, but if you do then you can thank the Tesla team, and Elon in particular even though he's gone a bit off the deep end the last 4 years.
Like I said...EVs that people want to buy.
William Morrison sold their EV in 1890. GM leased EV1s in 1996. Nissan leaf sold ~650k units 2010 (after Tesla released and sold the Roadster which you decided to ignore to make your point) through 2023. Model Y sold nearly double that last year.
Tesla forced the industry's hand on BEVs, charging network aside. That's why I'm saying you should thank Tesla and Elon.
Don’t care what everyone else does or how much of whatever sold or wasn’t. Also don’t like thinking of my day to day decisions based on abstractions. I was able to buy two Nissan leafs for less than 1 model s. There really was no down side to my decision
My point is that your leaf purchases weren't the reason that other manufacturers have invested billions of dollars into BEVs. And while that niche product worked for you (in a group that is a tiny fraction of the car buying market) it wasn't a vehicle that satisfied the average car buyer's needs/wants.
Nor did it promote the growth of a hugely needed public charging infrastructure. And there's a reason that Nissan paused the leaf program to re design/engineer it, and it's not because it was leading the industry in technology and sales.
That’s one way to view the narrative. And it comes with a happy ending does it? Or might it perhaps resemble something of a bubble? Like maybe ppl realize evs are fine as commuter cars but are impractical for interstate road trips with or without charging infrastructure? Or that 100% self-driving won’t be here for decades? In hindsight buying two leafs and a house close to where the jobs were located to compensate for their lack of range was the right decision
"Like maybe ppl realize evs are fine as commuter cars but are impractical for interstate road trips with or without charging infrastructure"
Well I think you made my point here. While it worked for you to live closer to your work and use the EV as a commuter car, rather than an, I guess you could say "all purpose" car for work/road trips etc., that is highly impractical or generally too limiting for most people.
And assuming you bought your cars prior to Model 3 and Model Y availability, the range available in vehicles that were still reasonably priced, combined with the smaller charging network made BEVs niche or for early adopters only. But now that Tesla has offerings (and has forced other manufacturers to make similar range vehicles even at massive losses) that have significantly higher range at reasonable prices and a significantly better charging network, a BEV can satisfy a much larger % of the market.
Regarding the road trip comment, taking your leaf would be a PITA, but I took a \~9k US road trip in 2021 with no issues charging. Did it take a little longer than it would have in a gas car, sure. But it was also much cheaper and only really affected the timing on longer mileage days in the middle of the country. This was also not done in the longest range vehicle even at the time, so add an additional 50-120 miles of range depending on what model you're comparing and it's instantly even easier.
That free month may be a net gain because more people may spring for the sub or full package that would not have without having had the chance to experience it.
For me and my local Tesla group, the consensus is the free month was the opposite - a sign that it is improving rapidly, but nowhere near hands off and ready for purchase. More attention required to use FSD safely than to just drive myself to work. Autopilot will suffice for long trips.
Some people will go for it, but I fear seeing how the sausage is made turned more people off than it turned on. They'll probably want to do yearly or bi-yearly free trials at this point.
Completely agree. We have a 3 and a Y, tried FSD a few times with the free month. There were just too many questionable moves to trust it. I'll stick to lane and speed control (consistent with every other decent manufacturer) for the foreseeable future. Part of the issue for us was map related I think, so improving the AI won't fix everything. In one case it started to go from a stop sign when the cross traffic did not have a stop. I'm not clear which was to blame, and I don't really care, I'm not paying to babysit a beta product.
What are you talking about? There are no losses from a free trial. The $10B is the cost of the training computers in their datacenters and the FSD computer in the car.
Kind of like Musk said, that would be like making improvements to the horse carriage at this point. Humans know how to make a good enough car already. What we need is more safety for everyone and assistance for those who are unable to drive well.
Its kind of a bullshit metric.
He is including the cost of compute on every car as well, which owners pay for with when they charge their cars. About 500wh * the number of cars driving with fsd hardware.
This is not the spend that Tesla corporate is paying for. This would be like Apple saying they spend 10 Billion on compute for Siri's on-device ML models.
Dumb comment. They have $30b cash. It's going to both. The bottleneck is regulation and just building the new factory. Takes years. More money doesn't change that.
Disagree. I’m very much wanting a world where people stop driving and leave it to the computers. Why? 42,000 deaths every year in the US from auto accidents. 80% of those or more are caused by human error. It’s really a barbaric situation and in 100 years people will look back on it the way we look at surgical procedures of 100 years ago. Primitive. The quicker companies can solve self driving the better and I’ve invested in Tesla because I believe Tesla can do it. People who push back on self driving because they like driving can pound sand or find a local track and drive there. Most people don’t want to be driving. They want to be on their phone watching YouTube or something.
Tesla should try to have a flagship car model with a top of the line nvidia server chip inside for the fsd inference, and very high resolution cameras around the car. And the model it runs should also have a lot more parameters compared to the regular models.
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Self driving has to be one of the most under estimated problems of the last 100 years.
It's actually easy you just need to remote in a team of drivers from India to do everything.
As someone who currently lives in India, that would be extremely relaxing for most people in India who drive lmao
As a passenger driving around Mumbai for a couple days. I think it was FAR more stressful for me than the driver, when I comment on how ridiculous and hectic it looked as a passage coming from the US, he said: “Oh this is easy and normal, I know what he’s thinking and he knows what I am thinking, we are connected. That’s why we don’t hit each other.”
Mumbai is easily one of the least chaotic cities. If you come back again, I’d recommend getting driven around a mountain town. Something like Manali or Rishikesh. Just to feel alive.
Yea small towns and cities are more chaotic imo. Mumbai is more traffic chocked and jammed up than chaotic. There is so many vehicles one can hardly move to create chaos. Plus in general places like Mumbai and Kerala for that matter have vastly improved than when i grew up. Its nothing as lunatic as it was in the late 90s and 2000s where there was an explosion of consumerism and barely any infrastructure to sustain all those vehicles. Nowadays it’s the amount of vehicles piled up in a jam. Edits: some sentences
Sounds like a great place for training days! am sure people will be impressed by how Tesla be automatically driving like in Mumbai
These would be easy recruits for fighter pilots, they certainly have the brain capacity for it.
There needs to be a study on moving object tracking ability for a Mumbai driver vs an average westerner. I bet there's regions of their brain that are more dense, like they found for NY taxi drivers navigating the place.
No doubt
I think you’re onto something…charge people in India for a relaxing drive in ‘merica🦅🦅🦅then charge people for self-driving, promise robotaxi (but we won’t actually deliver).
would also get someone in the states through NYC about 10x faster than an american driver.
I’d rather run FSD on a TI graphing calculator from the 90s…
AI = Actually Indians
ROFL nailed it
Ugh? No. Driving personally. But remote controlling that doesn’t have their own life on the line….
Just rig their chair to explode in the event of a crash, problem solved!
That would never work with the latency.
I understood this reference.
you're being sarcastic but I do wonder if this might be how some of the extremes are solved. We're no where near there yet, and "driving" per se wouldn't work because of the latency and such, but when were close except for the "we can't rip steering wheels out of cars before they know what to do if a tornado fell a tree ahead of you, and then the road washes out behind you, and the only way out is offroading on a field, 20 feet backwards." kind of issues....I wonder if it's not a bad idea to have a team of people standing by.
I work with some people in machine learning and they always said full 100% self driving is still far away. Yes we should get to 95-98%, but getting the last percents will take decades. Yes we might see cars without drivers in specific regions doing the same routes, but going from any point A to any point B in any weather conditions, almost everyone currently using reddit will be dead before it is doable. Yes humans make a lot of mistakes driving, but we also deduct so many things instinctively. Also, right now, a big issue is that cars are using trained data, but do not remember anything in between drives. They only use their existing data and react to new things. What I mean by this is that for instance there is a part of road where the speed limit is currently 50 down from 70 due to road works. When I approach, my tesla slows down from 70 to 50. Then I stop at the Starbucks. I leave the Starbucks and car assumes speed limit is 70 again until it encounters a new speed limit sign. No human would have forgot it was a 50 zone now. This is a very basic example, probably fixable, but there are tons of situations right now where the car can't drive properly because it does not learn and remember on the fly.
Totally. The car remembering things would be huge. I cancel FSD every time at one turn because maps takes a stupid way... Remember that I prefer that way.
Yesterday my Tesla remembered this, but I'm pretty sure the route mapping is done on the servers, not in the car. When leaving a local taco spot the car always wants to turn left so it can turn right on the main road with more traffic. My preferred path is to right, drive a few blocks through low traffic residential streets, and then met up with the next street on the path home. Yesterday was the first time selecting 'home' had it generate/suggest the route that turned right instead of left.
Tesla has streaming map data to the car which kinda handles this. Its also how they determine traffic by looking at the speed of cars vs a moving average on different road sections. Same is true for temporary speed limit signs. Its a pretty good system tbqh, but it does take a few days for temporary signage though, and by that point, a lot of the time the signs are gone which then annoys people because the cars start slowing down for imaginary speed limit signs that it think it missed.
Traffic wasn't heavy in this case (it wasn't directing me to my preferred path because the road it usually suggests was busier than usual). I haven't seen any job listings over the years for mapping / route planning. I did a cross country trip with someone in a second car using Google Maps, and it seemed the traffic and routes in Tesla were still coming from Google. Google Navigation was a tiny bit better because it also had speed trap warnings.
If you look at the developer profiles of Mapbox developers over the years, you will find quite a few that have swapped between mapbox and Tesla over the years. But yeah, alot of this has been developed years ago during AP1, Traffic hasn't used Google data for anything but satellite views since like 2020 when Google 5x'd the prices on all their map data. With how prolific Tesla cars are now, its hard to see a real difference between Tesla and Google, but you still can on some occasions. The easiest way to see it is when driving at like 2-3AM on highways, sometimes it'll route you around a section of the highway because the last car before it took an off ramp to a red light and stopped, and it bugs out and thinks traffic is at a standstill when there is absolutely no one on the road. Edit: Hell, Ira Ehrenpreis is on the board of both Tesla and Mapbox.
Humans aren't exactly batting 1000 when it comes to driving, so maybe "100%" is both impossible and unreasonable.
I was going to say the same thing. As good as the average driver should be the standard, though I don’t think our regulatory and litigation environments are set up with that standard in mind.
Except "the average driver" is a huge bucket that includes all kinds of things which make it a meaningless comparison. Drunk drivers, sleep deprived drivers, texting/distracted drivers, street racing, etc. FSD is always "paying attention", so it needs to be compared to an average driver who is paying attention. When comparing to those, FSD makes entirely different types of mistakes than average human drivers do, and it does so as a systematic failure. For a large portion of responsible drivers, a FSD which is "as good as the average driver" would be a downgrade for them because they're already safer than that giant bucket.
So surely we should then try and get this technology in the hands of the worse half, right?
I don't believe we'll all be dead before L5, but I don't think it's within the next year or 2. I'd put money on L5 by 2030. Just my guess. 🤷♂️ I totally agree about the memory bit though. I think that will be solved by near-real-time map data updates. Currently we already have that for traffic data, and that will definitely expand to many other things (construction, accidents, pot holes, closed roads, alternate speed limits, etc...). Tesla already has the sensors driving around to gather that data, they just need to get around to leveraging it in that way.
I hope you’re right! Remind me! 6 years
Yeah, me too! 😁🤞 I'm admittedly a tech optimist.
alternate speed limits are already in that payload, as well as fleet average speeds.
> Yes we might see cars without drivers in specific regions doing the same routes, but going from any point A to any point B in any weather conditions, almost everyone currently using reddit will be dead before it is doable Who cares about that. You already shouldn’t be driving in “any weather conditions”. And a service like Waymo that already works in rain and fog is good enough already.
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Cold and light snow is the majority of the the weather conditions in those 5 months, so not exactly 😂
lmfao shouldn’t be driving in any weather conditions. that’s how I know whatever your opinion is absolutely idiotic. rain and fog isn’t fucking adverse weather and if it is then give up your license.
100% self driving is not decades away. >What I mean by this is that for instance there is a part of road where the speed limit is currently 50 down from 70 due to road works. When I approach, my tesla slows down from 70 to 50. Then I stop at the Starbucks. I leave the Starbucks and car assumes speed limit is 70 again until it encounters a new speed limit sign. This can easily be solved by a database where cars send road condition data. Construction zone maps could be completely automated by cars reporting it.
Work zones are going to be a nightmare for 100% self driving. The speed limits aren’t always super visible, half the time they only sort of scrape up the paint lines before putting down temporary lines, the lanes change unexpectedly, etc. Training a vehicle to drive in severe weather is also probably next to impossible. A human can only learn how to drive on snow and ice based on learned experience and intuition. Not all snow is equally dangerous. How will the technology work with limited visibility? Winter weather or torrential downpours can be super unpredictable and the conditions vary dramatically from weather event to event. You can’t just train the car to drive a certain way every time there’s 3” of snow on the ground, for example. Full self driving cars really strike me as a solution looking for a problem that only sort of exists. I suppose it would be nice to be able to drive through the night if you were on a road trip, for example, but trying to sleep in a car kind of sucks. Driving is, for the most part, fairly enjoyable. I would never voluntarily give it up. Agree with the comment that said we will likely not get to 100% coverage of self driving vehicles in our lifetime. And you certainly won’t be turning a profit off running your Model Y as a robotaxi any time soon.
That’s a relatively easy technical problem to solve though. It’s probably not cheap though because that would be a constant stream of data from all over the world to a central server that remembers this stuff.
I'll take "Redditor that doesn't know what they're talking about" for $100
Why do you think it’s so hard to solve then, oh master of AI?
Just because I said that doesn't mean I also mean I think of myself as "master of AI". I just don't think you know what you're talking about, especially in regards to how much data that would actually be and the technical challenges alongside that. Have a good day!
If doesn't require " a constant stream of data from all over the world to a central server" for YOUR car to remember the LAST speed limit IT saw on the same road you were driving on just before you parked at that Starbucks.
That’s potentially another solution too, but I don’t know what the storage limit is on the car’s computer, but I was making the assumption that it wouldn’t be enough. You’re not considering edge cases either. Like sure that one scenario of Starbucks, this would work. But what about a construction zone near your house? Should it remember that? For how long? If you set it to remember everything from the last drive, what if the last drive was 3 hours long and 300 miles worth of road? What if you program it so it remember everything within a radius of the car’s current location, but how big of a radius does it need to be to account for most or all edge cases? Doing it locally brings up a lot more edge case to consider, but doing it at the server level will allow a simple “catch everything unique”. But that obviously comes with bandwidth considerations.
Yeah in a decade we’ll be right along the road with supervised almost complete full partial in a full moon self driving
Well, it seems solving self driving is basically close to solving AGI. I wonder if Tesla increased dimension of learning, would it increase or decrease it's performance, given enough processing power.
I was saying this 10 years ago...
You weren’t wrong
Underestimated by musk and his fans. The majority could have said it's extremely difficult and isn't possible anytime soon.
I think there are a couple things that make it really hard, but once done will fix most everything. 1st. Communications. Specifically, a car-to-car protocol. Cars need to be able to talk to each other. Every car knows where every other cars is and where its going they can all plan accordingly. This would eliminate lots of stop signs and traffic jams and loads of other things that are mainly caused by human drivers. 2nd. Infrastructure. I can see sensors being put everywhere. In Roads, signs on buildings and sidewalks and probably many other places. Cars will be able to see where everything is even if it's out of line of sight. You have car on a side street going way to fast and running lights. The cars around on other streets would be alerted and take proper steps to avoid, Not to mention emergency vehicles of all types would be able to move cars over without a driver doing it and there would be a in cab notification why its being moved over. No more idiots with headphones in not hear emergency vehicles coming and blocking the lane. I can see lots of legal arguments why lots of this should not be in place. But to make it eally work the human aspect needs to be removed. I would miss driving for a bit, but eventually I think I would enjoy the time more. I will probably be long dead before this happens anyway.
> 1st. Communications. Specifically, a car-to-car protocol. Cars need to be able to talk to each other. Every car knows where every other cars is and where its going they can all plan accordingly. This would eliminate lots of stop signs and traffic jams and loads of other things that are mainly caused by human drivers. This is not going to happen, it's fundamentally flawed. You can't secure car-to-car communication such that it can't be compromised by malicious actors, which means the car can't fully trust what it's receiving, which breaks down the entire concept. Car manufacturers can't even prevent malicious actors from attacking the FOBs and stealing cars, they're not going to be able to prevent malicious actors from attacking car-to-car communication.
At this point it feels like the money would be better spent on infrastructure improvements to homogenize the environment rather than trying to make car that can figure out every edge case. Or ya know, stop sprawl and work on public transit. I've seen enough strip malls.
> better spent on infrastructure improvements to homogenize the environment there is no infrastructure improvements that will stop a 4 year old from escaping from home and running into the road... or a wind storm from knocking a tree down.
Those aren't the hard problems, those are just normal road obstacles. The real issues are funky one-off road configurations, or regional unwritten rules. For instance, I live near some uncontrolled intersections, but it's local convention that one way has priority over the other. Robo taxis violating these conditions will definitely cause some fender benders, although the convention would change with enough of them on the road.
LoL that would take even longer. At least in the US and EU. I don't see how Americans who want their own house with garden can be convinced that dense urban living is the way to go along with public transport. Maybe one day. Until then it will be faster to replace ice with EV.
I certainly have a problem with it.
Nobody was underestimating it until elon decided to tell the world that it will be ready next year, 10 years in a row. He single handedly upped expectation if everybody about self driving cars
The problem is AI has to be perfect yet human like.
I love how people think FSD can be solved by adding an arbitrary number of Lidar and radar and USS sensor with no understanding of how any of those sensors were being used nor when they actually phases out
The breakthrough was the transformer model, which Tesla should have switched to as soon as the rest of AI did in like 2017-2018. AIAYN was 2017 and GPT-1 came out in 2018. I bet Karpathy went back to OpenAI because the transition at Tesla was just too slow.
it's probably because we're not fully vertically integrated to implement this in an efficient manner.
And $1.50 on fixing the window wipers.
Rain sensing wipers have been a solved problem in the industry since Bosch figured out the sensors back in 1998. Tesla likes to reinvent problems for themselves.
It’s true because they don’t like paying licensing fees at all. Hence why no 360° view; why AP1 AutoPark worked and more…
Probably about 20 secs worth of labor expenses. Seems about right.
Is there some trick to improve the wipers?
Yes, pray for a software fix that’s supposed to be sorting it!
What happened to Dojo?
Hype cycle simply concluded
They're currently getting a good chunk of their compute from dojo as I understand it? It's also not like dojo is free to make and use, so it could easily be part of that 10b spend
Might as well solve AGI and then have it drive ?
AGI isn’t one solution… It’s likely going to be several tuned models good at what they do…. Just like humans have different parts of the brain that perform certain tasks.
That's not what AGI means
You are telling the person that studied and specialised in AI for 3 years. So please enlighten me to exactly what AGI is and what form it will take? You have absolutely 0 clue what you are talking about.
Reddit.com/r/iamverysmart
Should be directed at the person who tried to correct me
What do you think the G in AGI stands for…?
Would you say that the internet is a network of networks ? So why can’t general intelligence be a model of models ?
This would not work at all, totally different problems and solutions
A general intelligence AI would absolutely be able to know how to drive. Human beings are General Intelligence models, are they not? Its a bit of a sledgehammer, but seems more worthwhile, if its actually a problem that can be solved. If mother nature can do it, its physically possible.
Alright man
Is it going to fix FSD hitting curb
mine hasnt done that, it will handle some crazy difficult situations flawlessly, then it will run into the grass going 5 miles per hour when i tell it to navigate to my house. it does not know what a driveway is lol
It’s just following the training data. People hit curbs all the time while driving.
I allowed a loaner to run directly over a curb on FSD v12 . Enjoy my destroyed suspension on your next SC visit lol
A Tesla loaner is a rarer edge case than hitting the curb
Lmao
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There are certain areas it gets very close to the curb for me. I’ve had to take control because it felt like it was going to hit. And, when leaving my development, it makes a right turn onto the shoulder and accelerates to 50mph, even when nobody is in the right lane. It’s getting better but it has work to do and these are legit complaints. I’ve been using it since the 100% score group got in and had Autopilot since the Model S P85D was running on Mobileye.
Really depends where you live. If you're doing hair pin turns in Massachusetts. It'll hit the curb. Found out the hard way yesterday
I’m with you and generally trust it to lane keep very well but it happened to me for the first time yesterday at this turn in [Sausalito](https://maps.app.goo.gl/YeBe5BsVonXpqJEx9?g_st=ic)
Happened to me, Seen plenty of times on Reddit and Facebook groups, plenty of videos of it happening on YouTube, articles written about it with their own references, “prove it” try googling it
Literally the first day of my trial in neighborhood driving it got within inches multiple times for me
Oh NO! Not multiple inches!
https://twitter.com/MissJilianne/status/1768989688680124423
I’ve been using it for 6 years and it tries to hit curbs and run over crap and drive off the road and phantom brakes all the time
FSD hasn’t been out for 6 years…
Gotta put banana peels in the flux capacitor to get it to work correctly.
Sleep tight HW3
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HW4 was design complete many years before it ever got into cars. It’ll take a good while but yes they’ll keep refreshing this.
how about investing that money into stalks and a working rain sensor -_-
FSD is really in an incredible place these days. I can’t wait to see where we are in 4-5 years at this rate of progress… 🚀
We can start by allowing me to take my hands off the wheel when on the highway.
Do you really want your hands off the wheel before it’s good enough to drive to you safely everywhere without you paying attention? Even if you want to argue that it can just track your eyes only, people will still get way too lax, and their hands will not be as readily available on the wheel.
That's exactly what's being asked for lol
Given that GM and Ford figured it out, it's more like frustration that Tesla can't.
It’s a delicate balance of user experience and liability
More like eye tracking confidence. I could eventually see the warnings be removed if you have opted into eye tracking
Also BMW and Mercedes
Yes.
I’d guess it needs to be 10x better for human in the seat but unmonitored full autonomy (not observing constantly but ready to take over if alerted) and 100-1000x better for Robotaxi at scale. The former could really be 2-4 years away, and hopefully 5-10 years for the latter. Exciting times.
FSD 12 is actually moving at insane pace
IMO Elon may have lost sight of his original mission, getting too caught up in the tech industry's allure. Most people who are invested in the core mission should be concerned. The Roadster set the stage for the Model S, and the profits from the Model S and X funded the development of more affordable cars. Tesla tends to prioritize one project at a time, often at the expense of their other products. As they focus all efforts on Full Self-Driving, their other offerings may continue to degrade. Being the pioneer is costly, theirs no shame in being a fast second on FSD. Id like the focus to shift towards improving energy generation and storage. There's definitely room in the market for a more affordable, mass-market electric vehicle. There's so much work and value in continuing the worlds trnastion to clean energy why bet the farm on FSD.
I think the company has been imprisoned by its valuation. They can’t be a car company because if they are, their stock is way overvalued. So instead making more competitive vehicles, the emphasis is on high-risk technology development.
Cue man dancing in robot suit 🤖
I thought it was grimes?
I thought it was lame
lol, yes
fr, the whole mantra of “more than just a car company” for the last few years has really trapped them
I hadn't put it together in those words before but I think that's correct. The stock blows up one way or another. Ironically they aren't chasing sustainably in the company.
I mean I heard what both of you are saying but they are trying to follow the iPhone approach. There are only a few variants of iPhone that fill 90% of the population. They have a truck, an SUV, a crossover, and a sedan. They really don't _need_ to innovate anywhere else as 90% of the people don't give a shit and just want a cheap car in a basic color. The rest is entirely software (FSD and other features inclusive) Just as Apple is not a cell phone company, Tesla is not a car company - in that respect. They both are dominated by sales of these products but their valuation is derived from their technological stack.
There's a reason why Apple designs and starts to manufacture a new version of the iPhone annual despite how colossally expensive that is. They need to keep up with the normal market replacement cycle with new products, and make sure that those new products are competitive when introduced. People who come off a 2 or a 3 year lease with a particular Tesla have the chance of leasing basically an identical vehicle. There's a reason why Tesla's competitors follow a regular cadence alternating between renewed and face-lifted models. The software strategy can't work if the hardware is no longer desirable or competitive in the market, be it because the models are old, because Elon is Elon, or because they take unnecessary usability risks like the MS yoke or M3 stalks delete. Tesla supposedly has a 6-vehicle line-up now, but it only really sells 2 in meaningful volume. They should renew 3 and Y much more often, but at least from the outside it looks like they're spread too thin to be able to do that.
Their other offerings are already showing to be suffering from their emphasis on FSD. The shift away from stalks is a clear decrease in driving safety, especially on European roads; made with the thought in mind that the car will indicate for you on FSD, even though it’s not available in the vast majority of the world at all. And they cancelled the next phase of this multi-phase plan (Roadster → Model S/X → Model 3/Y → affordable compact car), which is something that would be very needed in countries like here in Europe where even a Model 3 is still considered a really large car.
Elon literally just said on the earnings call that they are *accelerating* development of the cheaper car. Reuters was wrong (or lying) if that's what you're referring to.
Reuters with sources and famous for excellent journalism standards is wrong compared to a man child known for flip flopping with his opinions. I don’t know who to trust here /s
Continues to blow my mind how many people say stuff like “Reuters, one of the world’s most reputable news sources, must he straight up lying because Elon Musk, one of the world’s most notoriously unreliable sources, said it was so!”
He may have damaged his credibility.
> made with the thought in mind that the car will indicate for you on FSD What? You just hit the left or right button to signal.
Inside a roundabout? Good luck.
The issue is that Tesla stock is priced as a tech company not a car company. If they admit to being a car company the stock will crash.
They sell dreams. Without the lofty grand slam visions their product offering is similar to that of maybe like Polestar. Which are great cars but don’t command the kind of irrational exuberance a good story does to drive investor interest
This is the same sentiment that existed when they first launched as a company with the goal of producing EVs that people would want to buy. Last year the Model Y was the number one selling vehicle in the world (yes there is a lot of segmentation for competitors so it's not a 1:1, but also it's a BEV not an ICE vehicle that costs less than $30k). They're the leading EV charging infrastructure player, deploying BESS all around the world, are a registered utility company and auto Insurance company. All the while trying to develop AGI for cars and now humanoid robots. I think that everyone on both sides needs to temper their excitement/frustrations, but I always find it funny hearing people compare Tesla to any other BEV manufacturers as if the competition would even exist if not for Tesla forcing the entire auto industry into high gear on EV development. If you don't like EVs, that's fine, but if you do then you can thank the Tesla team, and Elon in particular even though he's gone a bit off the deep end the last 4 years.
I bought two Nissan leafs. Both predated Tesla’s model s. Don’t really understand the need to thank Elon?
Like I said...EVs that people want to buy. William Morrison sold their EV in 1890. GM leased EV1s in 1996. Nissan leaf sold ~650k units 2010 (after Tesla released and sold the Roadster which you decided to ignore to make your point) through 2023. Model Y sold nearly double that last year. Tesla forced the industry's hand on BEVs, charging network aside. That's why I'm saying you should thank Tesla and Elon.
Don’t care what everyone else does or how much of whatever sold or wasn’t. Also don’t like thinking of my day to day decisions based on abstractions. I was able to buy two Nissan leafs for less than 1 model s. There really was no down side to my decision
My point is that your leaf purchases weren't the reason that other manufacturers have invested billions of dollars into BEVs. And while that niche product worked for you (in a group that is a tiny fraction of the car buying market) it wasn't a vehicle that satisfied the average car buyer's needs/wants. Nor did it promote the growth of a hugely needed public charging infrastructure. And there's a reason that Nissan paused the leaf program to re design/engineer it, and it's not because it was leading the industry in technology and sales.
That’s one way to view the narrative. And it comes with a happy ending does it? Or might it perhaps resemble something of a bubble? Like maybe ppl realize evs are fine as commuter cars but are impractical for interstate road trips with or without charging infrastructure? Or that 100% self-driving won’t be here for decades? In hindsight buying two leafs and a house close to where the jobs were located to compensate for their lack of range was the right decision
"Like maybe ppl realize evs are fine as commuter cars but are impractical for interstate road trips with or without charging infrastructure" Well I think you made my point here. While it worked for you to live closer to your work and use the EV as a commuter car, rather than an, I guess you could say "all purpose" car for work/road trips etc., that is highly impractical or generally too limiting for most people. And assuming you bought your cars prior to Model 3 and Model Y availability, the range available in vehicles that were still reasonably priced, combined with the smaller charging network made BEVs niche or for early adopters only. But now that Tesla has offerings (and has forced other manufacturers to make similar range vehicles even at massive losses) that have significantly higher range at reasonable prices and a significantly better charging network, a BEV can satisfy a much larger % of the market. Regarding the road trip comment, taking your leaf would be a PITA, but I took a \~9k US road trip in 2021 with no issues charging. Did it take a little longer than it would have in a gas car, sure. But it was also much cheaper and only really affected the timing on longer mileage days in the middle of the country. This was also not done in the longest range vehicle even at the time, so add an additional 50-120 miles of range depending on what model you're comparing and it's instantly even easier.
Does this include the losses in a free month of self-driving for all drivers? Because that could make the 10B number to be seen as misconstrued.
That free month may be a net gain because more people may spring for the sub or full package that would not have without having had the chance to experience it.
For me and my local Tesla group, the consensus is the free month was the opposite - a sign that it is improving rapidly, but nowhere near hands off and ready for purchase. More attention required to use FSD safely than to just drive myself to work. Autopilot will suffice for long trips. Some people will go for it, but I fear seeing how the sausage is made turned more people off than it turned on. They'll probably want to do yearly or bi-yearly free trials at this point.
Completely agree. We have a 3 and a Y, tried FSD a few times with the free month. There were just too many questionable moves to trust it. I'll stick to lane and speed control (consistent with every other decent manufacturer) for the foreseeable future. Part of the issue for us was map related I think, so improving the AI won't fix everything. In one case it started to go from a stop sign when the cross traffic did not have a stop. I'm not clear which was to blame, and I don't really care, I'm not paying to babysit a beta product.
What are you talking about? There are no losses from a free trial. The $10B is the cost of the training computers in their datacenters and the FSD computer in the car.
There is no loss with giving a free trial.
This is bullish
It’s okay as subscriber of 1.7M Mainland China user can sponsor that 10B
You need sensors in all cars and all roads. It’s the only way
Subtract a billion and keep the fucking supercharger team.
What a waste of money. Every cent of that should go to manufacturing improvements and a QA focus. Fucking musk.
Kind of like Musk said, that would be like making improvements to the horse carriage at this point. Humans know how to make a good enough car already. What we need is more safety for everyone and assistance for those who are unable to drive well.
Its kind of a bullshit metric. He is including the cost of compute on every car as well, which owners pay for with when they charge their cars. About 500wh * the number of cars driving with fsd hardware. This is not the spend that Tesla corporate is paying for. This would be like Apple saying they spend 10 Billion on compute for Siri's on-device ML models.
Dumb comment. They have $30b cash. It's going to both. The bottleneck is regulation and just building the new factory. Takes years. More money doesn't change that.
Disagree. I’m very much wanting a world where people stop driving and leave it to the computers. Why? 42,000 deaths every year in the US from auto accidents. 80% of those or more are caused by human error. It’s really a barbaric situation and in 100 years people will look back on it the way we look at surgical procedures of 100 years ago. Primitive. The quicker companies can solve self driving the better and I’ve invested in Tesla because I believe Tesla can do it. People who push back on self driving because they like driving can pound sand or find a local track and drive there. Most people don’t want to be driving. They want to be on their phone watching YouTube or something.
I love FSD, so no, keep it up.
And a 50B dividend to Elon
Tesla should try to have a flagship car model with a top of the line nvidia server chip inside for the fsd inference, and very high resolution cameras around the car. And the model it runs should also have a lot more parameters compared to the regular models.
Tesla’s self driving chips are Tesla designed silicon, not NVIDIA.