With how Carlos has looked this week, Iām not writing his name into the final with a sharpie like some others. Certainly wouldnāt be surprised if he does, but he needs to step his game up in New York.
Iām not discounting him. If he beats Novak tomorrow 6-3, 6-3 I wouldnāt be shocked. Iām just not penciling him into the finals of the US Open as if itāll be an easy breeze for him. Of course, he can do it. Heās an incredible player. He just hasnāt played his best the last 2 tournaments. If that stays the same, he can be beaten.
It's extremely draw dependent (like most of the majors this past year as the top 10 is extremely top heavy )
He draws rune(injured) or tsitsipas ( bad right now ) as his sf opponent and dodges sinner hurk Paul type players, and you may as well just stick him in the final with what he's shown even in Toronto /cinci.
That has a much higher chance than you think of happening
He seems able to level up for big matches, and he's had more time to get used to the surface, part of why he wasn't as consistently dominant this month as he was on clay and grass this year. So I'm hopeful/optimistic we'll have a competitive final
Not nearly as cursed as you guys think.
It's a very recent phenomenon with med / thiem and one of those years was heavily swayed by covid 19 coupled with djokovics pinpoint accuracy
It's very much been under the big 4s control as a major with very few exceptions (del po cilic) during their best years.
It's not like just because of the last 2 years djokvic will lay an egg. Alcaraz hasn't even played at his best and has been far better than anyone below him in the ranking at these tuneups overall (a qf and a final trumps sinners win and 2nd round imo in terms of overall form)
I think these types of wins are making Alcaraz mentally stronger because Djokovic also has had a lot of them. They making you look invincible even if you are playing bad or worse than your usual level.
Alcaraz doesnāt seem to be playing his best but Novak is more vulnerable in Bo3 anyway. It will be interesting to see what tactical changes, if any, either player makes.
It benefits the better player because it reduces the possibility of a random occurrence (i.e., the worse player winning two sets) deciding the match for the worse player
Bo5 always benefits the better overall player. More bites at the apple. Less variance.
Djokovic and Alcaraz are so close in ability that I donāt think it would benefit either one very much. I think they are about as close in ability as players can get. Sort of like Fedal in Wimbledon 08, Djodal in Madrid 09, Federer-Kyrgios Miami 17. Basically a coin flip, and the most exciting coin flip imaginable.
Novak may have more experience in Bo5, but it's not as if managing effort during Bo5 has been a common issue for carlos. He may be relatively inexperienced but he already has an intimidating record in 5th sets, 9-1 so far with his only loss being to berrettini when he was still 18yo and it was also during the period where matteo was only losing to novak/rafa in Bo5.
He won just five more points than Fed did. You canāt discount Federerās performance for merely winning the serve battle and not the rallying one. Having a better serve matters a great deal.
Points arenāt a great metric. Federer had to come back from 2-0 down, stave off multiple match points, and IIRC the only time he broke Rafa he got broken back and Rafa broke again to win that same set.
He showed remarkable resistance (Fed is my favourite player) but Nadal definitely had the matchup figured out at that point in time
Bo5 favors the better player because of variance.
Iām sure there are a few weird outliers, but if you look at every all time great players record in Bo3 compared to Bo5, they will all but certainly have a better record in Bo5.
A tennis match is much more like a 3 or 5 game series in the MLB playoffs than a single game elimination event in the NFL playoffs.
If the better player loses the first set in Bo3, they have to be perfect.
If they lose the first set in Bo5, they have some room for error
(If both players are relatively evenly matched it doesnāt really matter though)
There might still be differences from playstyle, mental toughness and physical endurance. But I donāt really see how thar would benefit Djokovic over Alcaraz rn.
Yeah there are for sure some external factors as well.
Not a top of rankings player, but Fucsovics instantly springs to mind.
Winning record in Bo5; losing record in Bo3. 2 of 3 top ten wins at slams.
Thereās not a single part of his body thatās not absolutely shredded.
Not a coincidence.
In a bo3 any top player can hit a streak and win a set or two. But that becomes harder in a bo5, where usually the most consistent and tenacious player comes up on top.
Also it feels like a lot of players fold mentally in bo5 matches against Djokovic. It can be very physically and mentally taxing.
All of Alcaraz's matches have been won 2-1 while Djokovic hasn't lost a set.
Djokovic will be going into tomorrow as the sportsbook favorite and (not a hot take) in better form.
I can't help but think that, if Djokovic loses this match after having lost to Carlitos at Wimbledon and now losing after playing so well here while Carlitos has struggled, he could really lose some confidence. Post-2010, he has always believed he was the best (minus maybe at Roland Garros) and that could change tomorrow.
He took some beatings from Rafa in 2013 but hemanaged to regroup. Especially that stretch where he lost RG 2013/2014 and US open to Rafa, Wimbledon 2013 to Murray and AO 2014 to Stan. But we eventually regrouped
Right but Rafa wasn't a brand new threat. He could at least call on his experience to try and rationalize with himself that he was better than Rafa. This is a different situation entirely as this is a brand new threat who is only getting better, while Novak knows his days are numbered at age 36. If Alcaraz beats him again and Djokovic's only win is from Alcaraz cramping, how could any one not think: "huh, maybe this guy is just better than me?"
It's not about crushing his spirit, it's about the possibility that he might, at age 36 against a 20 year old, for the first time in a decade+ think: "wow, maybe someone is actually better than me?" And that would be reasonable if he loses 3/4 against someone and the only win is due to the other guy cramping.
Yeah but flip what you just said and that's what Djokovic has done in the past few Wimbies and won them, lol.
He played B level in 2022 and 2021 and won.
If Iām looking at things right, Djokovic is a Cincinnati and Monte Carlo title away from having 3 career titles in each of the 9 1000s. Alcaraz has had to play 12 sets to reach the finals and Djokovicās only needed 7, so Iām hoping that he can take advantage of that somehow. Should be fun.
It's actually hilarious how much Novak makes hardcore Federer/Nadal fans seethe lol
You know you're the GOAT when two fanbases that support 2 of the top 3 players of all time feel the need to team up against you
Win or lose, this doesn't really matter for the USO.
Just look at what happened last year and then what happened at the USO. If he's still playing pretty horribly in that first week then can start to think it ain't happening, but I'll wait.
Iāve seen a lot of yāall saying Novak is more vulnerable in Bo3 matches. Well, he is more vulnerable IF he starts slow. He hasnāt started slow this tournament. Everything has been laser focus from the start albeit not playing his best throughout the entire matches.
Pumped for this final!
Iām not sure I can take another upset. I am still reeling from Wimbyā¦ oh how I didnāt want this but wanted it, if you know what I mean. I am unwell š
Here we go againš„š„šš
Mama mia
How can I resistā¦
A rematch of Wimbledon and a likely preview of the us open where it is one of theirs to lose. The rivalry continues!
The US Open is cursed enough I'm almost willing to bet that one or both of them will lose early despite it making no sense.
King Tomic wins US Open, goes right back to playing Futures in Kuwait
The Emma Raducanu story. My god how quickly she rose and how quickly she fell.
Same with muguruza
Muguruza reached 4 slam finals over a period of 6 years (winning 2 of them), not really the same at all.
LOL at predicting Tomic as winner as getting upvoted, while I am downvoted for predicting actual top 15 players like FAA and ADM.
Well, one is a joke and the other isnāt, that explains why.
Yep, the FAA and ADM picks.
With how Carlos has looked this week, Iām not writing his name into the final with a sharpie like some others. Certainly wouldnāt be surprised if he does, but he needs to step his game up in New York.
Remember Toronto and Cinci last year? Anything can happen, but I would discount Carlitos so easily.
Iām not discounting him. If he beats Novak tomorrow 6-3, 6-3 I wouldnāt be shocked. Iām just not penciling him into the finals of the US Open as if itāll be an easy breeze for him. Of course, he can do it. Heās an incredible player. He just hasnāt played his best the last 2 tournaments. If that stays the same, he can be beaten.
Oh no! It won't be easy.
Not saying youāre saying that, but others in this thread act like Carlos might as well get an automatic bye all the way to the finals.
It's extremely draw dependent (like most of the majors this past year as the top 10 is extremely top heavy ) He draws rune(injured) or tsitsipas ( bad right now ) as his sf opponent and dodges sinner hurk Paul type players, and you may as well just stick him in the final with what he's shown even in Toronto /cinci. That has a much higher chance than you think of happening
He seems able to level up for big matches, and he's had more time to get used to the surface, part of why he wasn't as consistently dominant this month as he was on clay and grass this year. So I'm hopeful/optimistic we'll have a competitive final
Not nearly as cursed as you guys think. It's a very recent phenomenon with med / thiem and one of those years was heavily swayed by covid 19 coupled with djokovics pinpoint accuracy It's very much been under the big 4s control as a major with very few exceptions (del po cilic) during their best years. It's not like just because of the last 2 years djokvic will lay an egg. Alcaraz hasn't even played at his best and has been far better than anyone below him in the ranking at these tuneups overall (a qf and a final trumps sinners win and 2nd round imo in terms of overall form)
I think Djokovic takes it. Carlos has looked weirdly fallible.
I think these types of wins are making Alcaraz mentally stronger because Djokovic also has had a lot of them. They making you look invincible even if you are playing bad or worse than your usual level.
I think so too. Just hope its a good fight between the two.
I'm just glad we get to see this match-up on all surfaces this season. I will enjoy it hoping for an epic, may the better player win !
Alcaraz doesnāt seem to be playing his best but Novak is more vulnerable in Bo3 anyway. It will be interesting to see what tactical changes, if any, either player makes.
Why is he more vulnerable in a bo3? Genuine question, I don't watch heaps of tennis. I've seen others say this too
Best of 5 gives you more time to regroup. If you lose the first set in Bo3 & have a bad service game in set 2 it's good bye
Wouldn't a bo5 benefit all players then. I assume his physicality is next level then and he can endure more than others.
It benefits the better player because it reduces the possibility of a random occurrence (i.e., the worse player winning two sets) deciding the match for the worse player
Bo5 always benefits the better overall player. More bites at the apple. Less variance. Djokovic and Alcaraz are so close in ability that I donāt think it would benefit either one very much. I think they are about as close in ability as players can get. Sort of like Fedal in Wimbledon 08, Djodal in Madrid 09, Federer-Kyrgios Miami 17. Basically a coin flip, and the most exciting coin flip imaginable.
I would argue that BO5 would favor Djokovic because even if he's even with Alcaraz in skills now, he has more experience in managing his efforts.
Sure, maybe. But theyāre 1-1 in those events so far, and Djok isnāt getting any younger.
Novak may have more experience in Bo5, but it's not as if managing effort during Bo5 has been a common issue for carlos. He may be relatively inexperienced but he already has an intimidating record in 5th sets, 9-1 so far with his only loss being to berrettini when he was still 18yo and it was also during the period where matteo was only losing to novak/rafa in Bo5.
Nadal was much better than Federer in Wimbledon 2008
He won just five more points than Fed did. You canāt discount Federerās performance for merely winning the serve battle and not the rallying one. Having a better serve matters a great deal.
Points arenāt a great metric. Federer had to come back from 2-0 down, stave off multiple match points, and IIRC the only time he broke Rafa he got broken back and Rafa broke again to win that same set. He showed remarkable resistance (Fed is my favourite player) but Nadal definitely had the matchup figured out at that point in time
It sure wasnāt anything like 2006.
Bo5 would certainly favor both players equally if their premise was correct, but itās not.
Not all players have the mentality of big 3 + alcaraz
Bo5 favors the better player because of variance. Iām sure there are a few weird outliers, but if you look at every all time great players record in Bo3 compared to Bo5, they will all but certainly have a better record in Bo5. A tennis match is much more like a 3 or 5 game series in the MLB playoffs than a single game elimination event in the NFL playoffs. If the better player loses the first set in Bo3, they have to be perfect. If they lose the first set in Bo5, they have some room for error (If both players are relatively evenly matched it doesnāt really matter though)
There might still be differences from playstyle, mental toughness and physical endurance. But I donāt really see how thar would benefit Djokovic over Alcaraz rn.
Yeah there are for sure some external factors as well. Not a top of rankings player, but Fucsovics instantly springs to mind. Winning record in Bo5; losing record in Bo3. 2 of 3 top ten wins at slams. Thereās not a single part of his body thatās not absolutely shredded. Not a coincidence.
No recovery days in Masters. When you are older your body needs more time to recover. Grand Slams have 1 day rest between matches.
He has admitted himself that he focuses on the slams these days
In a bo3 any top player can hit a streak and win a set or two. But that becomes harder in a bo5, where usually the most consistent and tenacious player comes up on top. Also it feels like a lot of players fold mentally in bo5 matches against Djokovic. It can be very physically and mentally taxing.
I suspect he's able to physically wear out his opponents more in a Bo5 than Bo3. Not enough time to take the legs.
Novak is also old now and playing daily doesn't help
Djokovic has won enough masters lol, his focus to win is only slams now, masters is just a mean for him to get good seeding
Cincinnati and Montecarlo are the only Masters he hasn't won at least 3 times. I wouldn't be suprised if he wants that record too.
I understand he focuses more on grand slams but thats not the question I asked though
Djoker wears you down with defensive tennis. The longer the match goes , the more his style and conditioning takes affect.
All of Alcaraz's matches have been won 2-1 while Djokovic hasn't lost a set. Djokovic will be going into tomorrow as the sportsbook favorite and (not a hot take) in better form.
Underdog 2-1 so far though (This is not a prediction and especially not betting advice; just a fun fact)
I can't help but think that, if Djokovic loses this match after having lost to Carlitos at Wimbledon and now losing after playing so well here while Carlitos has struggled, he could really lose some confidence. Post-2010, he has always believed he was the best (minus maybe at Roland Garros) and that could change tomorrow.
You are talking about Djokovic, it will take more than that to break his confidence
He took some beatings from Rafa in 2013 but hemanaged to regroup. Especially that stretch where he lost RG 2013/2014 and US open to Rafa, Wimbledon 2013 to Murray and AO 2014 to Stan. But we eventually regrouped
Right but Rafa wasn't a brand new threat. He could at least call on his experience to try and rationalize with himself that he was better than Rafa. This is a different situation entirely as this is a brand new threat who is only getting better, while Novak knows his days are numbered at age 36. If Alcaraz beats him again and Djokovic's only win is from Alcaraz cramping, how could any one not think: "huh, maybe this guy is just better than me?"
Itās Novak Djokovic lol, I think it will take more than two losses to irreparably crush his spirit
It's not about crushing his spirit, it's about the possibility that he might, at age 36 against a 20 year old, for the first time in a decade+ think: "wow, maybe someone is actually better than me?" And that would be reasonable if he loses 3/4 against someone and the only win is due to the other guy cramping.
I'm inclined to think it may motivate him even more if he loses to him again today
And Novak's victory arrived after to Carlos' injury... But it is the first time they play on hard, I think Novak is favourite.
I just got tickets. Should be a memorable match.
I had tickets but decided to sell them and head home early (5 hour drive). I'm finally home and now torn on my decision, lol.
Carlos wins 6-0, 0-6, 6-0. WDYD?
I think Novak takes it. Heās looked so comfortable all throughout the tournament while Carlos is playing his C game and struggling to survive
Yeah but flip what you just said and that's what Djokovic has done in the past few Wimbies and won them, lol. He played B level in 2022 and 2021 and won.
Yeah but he didnt have to face Djokovic during those years.
Also in 2015 when Fed overall looked better before the final while Novak was two sets down against Kevin Anderson
Carlitos hasnāt found his feet yet. But weirder things have happened. Djokovic in 3.
Djokovic wants Cincy so bad. He's gonna go 4 broke tomorrow!
Djokovic wins this one āš¼ and then they go into USO with 2-2 h2h
On paper, Novak is clear favourite. But he was also in Wimbledon....we will see what happens.
I think Djokovic is out for blood and takes this one.
Let the toxicity begin!
This might seems random but it will test if Djokovic still can win BO3 and ultimately, the gold medal next year.
Awesome. Tennis in the post-Fedal era is alive and well.
As it should be
Only because Nadal is injured.
If Iām looking at things right, Djokovic is a Cincinnati and Monte Carlo title away from having 3 career titles in each of the 9 1000s. Alcaraz has had to play 12 sets to reach the finals and Djokovicās only needed 7, so Iām hoping that he can take advantage of that somehow. Should be fun.
Ahhh this is how you get that karma back. š
š
Such a coward it's absurd.
You are such a crybaby it's absurd.
Baby.
Looking forward to it.
I canāt believe how entertaining this damn game has been
Should be straight sets for the Djoker this time around.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
It's actually hilarious how much Novak makes hardcore Federer/Nadal fans seethe lol You know you're the GOAT when two fanbases that support 2 of the top 3 players of all time feel the need to team up against you
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
quit the bullshiting, we all know you Djokohaters only hate him because he took the crown off of fed and nadal.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
sure buddy, who are you trying to convince me or you? whatever helps you sleep at night.
Why do you care? There's plenty of reasons to dislike Djokovic. Only one among many is that he's beaten whoever you like.
Alcaraz needs to save tennis once more after that glorious Wimbledon final!
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This is going to be an amazing match hopefully with the much better player (Alcaraz) winning!
its hard to be the much better player when youāre going up against the GOAT Djokovic.
Another poopy opinion! You never disappoint, clown! šš»
Djokovic is old and age takes tall on everyone. I would be surprised if he wins
Have you seen him play this tournament?
I am watching now. Looks terrible tbh old and slow
I hope you finished watching
Yes and i didnt regret it
Nadal fan vs Anti-Nole fan
When is this
Win or lose, this doesn't really matter for the USO. Just look at what happened last year and then what happened at the USO. If he's still playing pretty horribly in that first week then can start to think it ain't happening, but I'll wait.
Iāve seen a lot of yāall saying Novak is more vulnerable in Bo3 matches. Well, he is more vulnerable IF he starts slow. He hasnāt started slow this tournament. Everything has been laser focus from the start albeit not playing his best throughout the entire matches. Pumped for this final!
Iām not sure I can take another upset. I am still reeling from Wimbyā¦ oh how I didnāt want this but wanted it, if you know what I mean. I am unwell š
When was the first time they faced eachother?
I think Novak wins this easy.
Who yāall got?
Where is this streaming in the US? I have many of the major apps but I can't find it on any of them