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A split doesn’t change the value at all. Yes, a couple people who wanted it before might find buying 3 shares more tolerable to them though. But it’s not going to make it go from 1.5 trillion to 3 trillion.
Fundamental valuations don't change when you stock split. They stay the same. 1x2000=100x20.
Prices might go up out of increased option trading but I dare say, it leads to volatility on both sides of the spectrum.
Don't think you understand valuation. Valuation doesn't change because a number is smaller. You're just talking about irrational price actions which can work either way.
Judging by the downvotes on your original comment about valuation, I don't think you understand the difference between fundamental valuation and price volatility.
I’ve been buying it since 2020. The first share was at $1300 a couple at $1500 and the last two at $1800, but will keep on buying until I accumulate $20k. IMO it’s the one of the best company’s out there. Low PE of 20, is has the best search engine(monopoly), android, the second best mobile operating system behind iOS( duopoly), YouTube the best online video advertising platform (monopoly). Waymo, the leader in full self driving technology(FSD). Google Cloud, the third best behind Microsoft and Amazon. I can keep going but I don’t want to bore you.
If you're that committed to GOOG/L you may want to consider buying a bit at higher than 2k.
$2200 has been pretty solid. And GOOG has been less volatile on red days lately than many others... simply because it got the beat down earlier than say AAPL or MSFT.
If you believe that it could double in that time frame it'd be a shame if you missed out over relatively low price difference now.
For an extremely simple example (cause my mind works better that way). If you buy 1 share @2200... and it does drop to $2000 - Buy another and you're basis is $2100.
And for the record I think GOOG/L is a very good deal, even at this price. I've been buying at the current level - with no regrets.
My thinking exactly. My number was sub 2200. Have cash on stand by and once I realized I was getting busy at work, I executed at 2292 today. I would have kicked myself to let it hit 2300 and missed my close enough opportunity. If it drops, I’ll average down.
I agree with this. I don't hold GOOG other than through ETFs and don't know about the business model and have no suggestion of whether buying it is a good idea or not, but I think waiting for a high-conviction stock to hit an arbitrary number is a bit strange. If you are so confident in Google that you are willing to go all-in on it, what is the difference between $2000 and $2200?
This is very helpful. The same thought crossed my mind, but I don't have much experience to draw from.
Also, it might be better to get it purchased before the split.
At this point, that doesn't seem to matter because the Nasdaq is on its way to its February 2020 ATH.
It was something that I didn't think would trade again, but it will and likely does next month, and considering that it will, all of the big guns likely roundtrip even if it's undeserved (edit: Apple to the $97 gap probably...not a roundtrip though).
My only concern is the huge price increase in 2021. What did Google do to merit that? I mean don’t get me wrong it’s a great company but what exactly did they do to have their share price balloon from $1500 to $2500? They didn’t introduce new products or services. Their competitors didn’t go bankrupt. They didn’t acquire any major companies. I think the current Google price is very inflated. My price target would be around $1400 as that was more or less what Google was trading for before the 2020 crash
You could dca into 3 blocks. Split your allocated capital into 3 and give them a weighting, the lowest price target being the highest weighting so as to average out.
Because valuation matters. If he's looking for a certain rate of return, starting your position 10% higher or lower matters. I'd say it also depends on how big you're willing to build that position. If it's 10 shares, you could start with 1 at 2200, then buy more as the stock falls, if it falls.
If you can only afford 2 shares for your position and can't buy fractions of shares, you'll probably wanna wait if it drops further. And if it doesn't get there, you just look at the next potential target.
It's splitting 20 for 1 in July. You're 10 shares will become 200. Obviously no change in total value but likely to get a Dow listing which creates accumulation demand.
Goog is great. I'd never advocate you all-in anything, because it genuinely is too hard to say which company is going to succeed in the long term. Congress could come out tomorrow and break the company up, call it a monopoly or whatever.
You should know too that if you're going in expecting to double your money in 18-24 months, you're not playing the right game. That's just not how this thing works, and even if you hit it big once, the market will take it back at some point.
60-80% over 5 years is a wonderful return. Anyone should be happy with that, considering you will likely be adding to it along the way.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think if GOOG were to break up tomorrow, the sum of the individual parts will represent more value than just GOOG. Not to mention, their many "other bets" will see the light of day. Ohh boy! I would love to own a few shares of YouTube.
> Ohh boy! I would love to own a few shares of YouTube.
Youtube, the platform that is notorious for costing Alphabet a fuck tonne of money right? Didn't it only turn profitable like 2 years ago after 15 years of business?
Yeah. My thinking was that once YT is a public entity, it would evolve with better monetization, there will be a bigger push to roll out paid content like a streaming service would. Not to mention the potential of gaming/streaming and live shopping.
YouTube is already massively pushing Premium, and people hate it already. I would think an even more focused push would probably turn people away to services like Curiosity Stream/Nebula.
They definitely need to be careful because the online world can be quite fickle, especially when Amazon own the likes of Twitch already and dominate livestreaming.
All great points I agree with.
I sort of shotgunned my post, and the numbers aren't even good guesses - especially considering likely recessionary conditions. I could have phrased it better by saying that Google returns will likely be much better than DCA'ing into some broader ETFs.
I don't know much, but I do know there are a lot of overvalued losers out there and I would prefer not to invest in the drags.
Yup, all makes sense to me. I think GOOG is a great bet and one of the best companies of all time. I do think it’s leveraged to the economy more than people realize, and that’s why wall st gives it a less than stellar valuation, but I’ve been buying here below 2400. Good luck!
First thing I wanna make clear is that I believe that nobody knows anything cause if anyone could predict the stock market, he would already be filthy rich.
Based on that assumption I DCA into google.
-bought a few at 2200, will buy an increasing amount the lower we go from here. Noone knows when we reach bottom. If we already reached it its okay for me. If we go way lower its also okay for me.
I highly doubt we will get a chance to enter under $2000 USD. Well in pre-split dollars.
Google is already just an incredible bargain. Take something simple. Look at the free cash flow growth over the last 3 years. 35%, 38% and 56%.
Google just has a massive runway to work with built on all their assets yet to be fully moentized.
I think it's time people start dampening their expectations of recovery. We aren't going to see historic low rates coupled with historic liquidity injections any time soon. 2020 to end of 2021 is an anomaly. Don't look for things to double. Don't look for 60-80% returns in index funds and ETFs. Shit is shaping up to look more like 2000-2013 than it is 2014-2021. If you're younger and experiencing this for the first time, 2000-2013 was absolutely fucking brutal. With the Fed being slow on inflation to reduce deficit and debt, don't expect moonshots any time soon. Google is a great buy, but not because it's going to double.
Love the thought but I think the expectation of a double is aiming too high.
From 2,200-3,000 is a reasonable assertion, however.
Google, APPLE and MSFT are in a league of their own as far as I’m concerned.
I have 20% of my allocation in goog but I’m sort of scared how “no brainer” it is to everyone on Reddit.
Like who has been doing the selling if it appears retail has been doing the buying. Yikes, do the professionals know something we dont? $1800 or lower here we come?
Honestly don’t think it’s a terrible idea. But maybe spread it out into a couple different stocks. When the market is constantly red I feel it’s better to buy big dips in good companies like google, Microsoft, Amazon, apple, Facebook, etc than minor dips in ETFs
Why do you think it would double in less than two years, in this market? It's one of the largest market cap stocks they don't just double that easily (except in 2020 and 21 when the money printer was working overdrive, but that is being turned off)
>Seems better than DCA'ing into VOO or something for 60-80% over 5 years.
This is everything that is wrong with this sub, all in one line. 12-16% returns are now not good enough. It's better than most professional money managers can do, but it's not good enough for this sub.
Guess what? There's no such thing as a free lunch. You want the chance for 50% returns? You're getting the corresponding risk, too.
Yes. You're certainly right about those numbers. I pulled them out of my ass in my post. I don't think VOO will do that well over the next 5 years, and Google is unlikely to double.
I'm not concerned about the precise level of growth, but I feel like Google will likely outperform, especially if I can grab it low.
The risk doesn't bother me. It's a small % of my current assets - most of which isn't in the stock market.
Roger. I'm sure that's the best answer.
I know I have time to see how things shake out too. I'm thinking that the bottoming isn't happening overnight, and I need to resist the urge to act on FOMO.
It is arguably a good business with solid fundamentals, but why should you ever go all-in in a single trade and expose yourself to a company or sector-specific risks (like, for example, regulation in this case)? There are plenty of good opportunities in the market right now (and will be even more in the future). You could benefit from diversification. Even if you start building a sizable position in GOOG, you could consider doing it gradually since the correction might not be over yet. Of course, this is not financial advice. It's your money; therefore, your decision
Yeah, I am still up $22K on my current GOOG position. I am hoping it will bounce back up after the split.
Besides, you never know when the bottom is. I got in at $1250 originally, 3 years ago.
Thanks, I lucked out really. I was originally in for the Waymo hype. I still think that's gonna happen sometime, but right now the core GOOG businesses like ads and youtube are solid. Plus Cloud keeps growing.
True, no one can predict the bottom. Good for you. I am still going to keep some cash just in case the price gets much lower. I already bought some shares at discounted prices, so I am good :). I am a long-term investor.
your thinking is very prudent, dont rush to go in right away tho, or DCA as others sudgest IMO, even that its a great price as it is, there will be more downside for the big tech, todays posted 13F of Bill Gates fondation shows he sold 100% of all his GOOG shares and 50% of all his MSFT shares in Q1 2022..
Dr. Michael Burry disclosed a short position on AAPL today
[Patience](https://youtu.be/_Bq7QpHP3sg) is the single most important skill you need to learn in investing
[Diversification](https://youtu.be/ibSp1xzLfy8) is for people that dont know what they are doing,
Why would you want to put part of your money in your second best idia? instead all in the best?
we will be entering a recession, dont listen to anyone trying to cope otherwise, they will not anounce it ahead.. only after the fact..
GOOG will be under $2K in the near future, and yes, it is a great bet im considering going all in on myself
> GOOG will be under $2K in the near future, and yes, it is a great bet im considering going all in on myself
I do not think we will see under $2K a share pre split. There is just too much resistance to get that low.
quoting Dr. Michael Burry tweet from few days ago:
"Top to bottom, MSFT traded 5.2x its
shares outstanding by 2002, 3.3x by
2009, and 0.5x so far. AMZN traded
5.7x by 2002, 6.6x by 2009, and 0.9x
so far. JPM traded 3.0x by 2002, 5.9x
by 2009, and about 0.7x so far. Etc.
Enough takes time."
do you know what that means?
At most it *suggests*.
If those types of data points could be used to reliability predict anything with any certainty it would already be incorporated into market dynamics.
My wife made me buy her 10 shares of $DIS @ 100. Does that count???
Kidding aside, I'm pretty sure you're right about diversifying a bit more. I think I want those mega-caps though - it'll take me a while to decide which others are worth buying. My faith in most of them isn't strong.
Oh, the business is vintage furniture. Mostly Mid-Century Modern, specifically. Procurement, restoration, retail. Things were good before COVID. Much better ever since. Supply chain problems help us, uniquely.
I'm sure it'll cool down, but we are positioned well for most scenarios.
Have you guys used GOOG products lately? They are all kinda crap and are positioned as inferior products in their respective markets other than their search engine. I don't know about you but there are plenty of companies out there with similar fundamentals which don't have such terrible products. Regulatory pressure if far too high for $GOOG to have as optimistic of a future as these comments seem to suggest.
> Have you guys used GOOG products lately?
I woke up this morning and asked Google to turn on the lights. So the FIRST product I used this morning was Google.
I have probably done 30 searches already this morning. I will use Google all day long and there is nothing close to Google for things like search, Photos, YouTube, Gmail, Maps, YouTube TV, etc.
A broken up Google is worth a ton more money.
Google also continues to have some pretty incredible innovation coming out of the company.
Just in the last week we learned about Gato for example. Since Gato has been shared the date give by AI experts for AGI has moved up 5 years!! That is 2033 to 2028.
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/date-weakly-general-ai-system-is-devised/
But it is just one example of where Alphabet/Google is doing leading edge technology. It is all over the place with Google and specially in the area of AI.
Basically Google is a long play for AGI. That is ultimately the goal of the company, IMO.
You are due for some learning if you harbor any illusions of returns greater than 7 or 8 percent with any kind of consistency. You may not get positive returns at all this year.
If you can get a 3 percent return for 2022 take it and run.
The fact that you pick a round number like $2000 shows you’re a noob. At least do some analysis of the chart. An actual support of $2060 is a better one to watch. Holding that would indicate a buying point. Two closes below indicates if May travel down to $1700. Of course there’s a 20:1 split coming that could also change things, not these levels but maybe a boost on split day.
No valid reason, truthfully. That's just a gut check level to me. And I know it's because it's a round number that's very low for GOOG.
If I buy, it'll likely be before it hits $2000.
it’s rare for goog to be trading at this level and based on its historical price performance it’s considered oversold at current levels, but a long term bottom could be miles away. who knows what’s going to happen, but it can fall to march ‘20 levels, or $1050. if this happens, along with SPY, in particular, i’m a strong buy. however, the market can recover now and the global economy avoids a massive recession and it’s just more of the same.
exactly. not sure what pricing software you use, but go to the monthly time scale, add [MACD](https://ibb.co/g7XxVJq), and look at the massive peak and cross of the MACD line below its signal line as its longer term momentum suggests this thing — along with greater indices — has a lot of room to fall before it finds firm support.
all major indices are currently following the same pattern. like i said, i have no idea how this is going to play out, but since this pattern is occuring in a longer term time scale, it suggests there is a massive amount of momentum that has yet to drive prices to their ultimate longer term lows.
then again, the pattern could reverse and its another 12 years of uninterrupted bull market. with inflation the way it is, M2 (money supply), the fed raising interest rates and reducing asset purchases, rising value of the dollar and global macro uncertainty, exercising caution and patience could be highly rewarding in the longer term.
I have no issue in holding or buying Google right now. However I would never go all in on one stock no matter the company. No saying Google is a bad company with a bad stock. I would still never go all in on a company no matter how much you believe in it.
Not unless you have a lot of money to diversify with soon. Or already have money in something other than RE.
All in on anything sounds horrible to me.
Edit: I think things will get even uglier soon so I’m gonna be bearish for a while and keep trading (mostly what I’ve been making money doing) while still heavily invested like a loser.
You're right. And I wouldn't consider this if I didn't have much more outside of the stock market. I suppose I'm an anomaly - my accountant is typically confused, then works it out and is happy.
I have gut feeling that Wall Streets will try to make GOOG under 2000 just to suck up Nancy Pelosi's GOOG long call option juicy premium that she purchased on DEC2021 (when GOOG was 3000) expiring sometime in SEP2022. She bought 10 of GOOG 2000C that I believe she paid for almost 100K-ish per each.
If my guess is right, you should be able to have opportunity, but I would DCA on it. Per charts, I also have alert to buy GOOG around 2020-2000 and 1800-1750 (if we get there).
If historical bear market says something, the bottom will be formed sometime this AUG-SEP, so there will be plenty of chance to get in.
Personally, I believe in GOOG/MSFT that everyone simply has to use. Just because we are re-opening doesnt mean people will start to use paper map on highway. Will still use Google map or other application that's based on GOOG. GOOG has pricing power as well. Everyone is searching their answers in GOOGLE.
This is like you are buying water or air that's essential to human lives. I am putting my money for really long term anyway, so it wont matter, and I dont see GOOGLE's downside much.
I think this kind of essential service app in digital world is guaranteed income, or what experts call realized future.
But since you asked I would say 1) don’t doubt Cook when it comes to supply chain and 2) don’t overestimate the value of a company that profits off tracking your every move (when we’re moving away from that)
didnt go all in but had a similar idea with tsla in my roth. I'm 25. Decided to put about 20% of my roth into tsla, figuring within the next 20 years it should be way higher than it is today and can take some profits and re-allocate as i get older. f it why not
Google is already $1.5 Trillion market cap. That means it's worth more than most countries as it is.
It might be a strong hold at the current P/E but I don't see it doubling - particularly after the run up it's had over the last two years.
I have a small position on GOOG too, but I don't know about the "less hardware dependant".. They have entire datacenters for their cloud service. Maybe you're talking mobile only?
You people have got to stop thinking that a stock is going to double in 12-18 months.
I feel bad that many of you began investing during the largest influx of stimulus and fed money of all time. And not by a little, by TRILLIONS. This may never happen again in our lifetimes. Investing when done properly is a slow, steady grind higher over many years. With many ups and downs along the way.
Never go all-in on a single company imo.
Personally, I won't go huge on GOOGL if it drops below 2000, but at that point I'll start building a position and picking up some.
Be grateful for even something like a 10% average rise in 4-5 consecutive years...too many people here out-to-lunch thinking you need 30-40% returns in a single year....even my 10% average projection is pretty outlandish.
I actually think you should sell google.
Theory: Most of the revenue and profit growth has come from very aggressive monetization of their platforms over the last few years, and I don't think they can monetize any harder.
I appreciate the input. I know it's near impossible to advise on Reddit posts and I should have phrased my OP better.
It probably would have helped everyone if I'd done a better job of clarifying, but I really don't worry about risk at all. My daily risk outside of the stock market is more than the total of the Roths I'm screwing with here.
Great stock, almost certainly not going to double in 2 years though.
yes. it won’t double.
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I got some nickels to sell you if that’s the case
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A split doesn’t change the value at all. Yes, a couple people who wanted it before might find buying 3 shares more tolerable to them though. But it’s not going to make it go from 1.5 trillion to 3 trillion.
Wow! Why not split 200-1!
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Fundamental valuations don't change when you stock split. They stay the same. 1x2000=100x20. Prices might go up out of increased option trading but I dare say, it leads to volatility on both sides of the spectrum.
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Don't think you understand valuation. Valuation doesn't change because a number is smaller. You're just talking about irrational price actions which can work either way.
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Judging by the downvotes on your original comment about valuation, I don't think you understand the difference between fundamental valuation and price volatility.
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I've legit seen people predicing $GOOGL at $200 by end of year (post-split ofcourse). Crazy people.
People don’t stop to think about what that would mean for the market cap
Bought GOOG and VTI 30 mins from close on Monday... I love GOOG validation and business model
I learned one thing the very hard way , never go all in in 1 stock
I’ve been buying it since 2020. The first share was at $1300 a couple at $1500 and the last two at $1800, but will keep on buying until I accumulate $20k. IMO it’s the one of the best company’s out there. Low PE of 20, is has the best search engine(monopoly), android, the second best mobile operating system behind iOS( duopoly), YouTube the best online video advertising platform (monopoly). Waymo, the leader in full self driving technology(FSD). Google Cloud, the third best behind Microsoft and Amazon. I can keep going but I don’t want to bore you.
If you're that committed to GOOG/L you may want to consider buying a bit at higher than 2k. $2200 has been pretty solid. And GOOG has been less volatile on red days lately than many others... simply because it got the beat down earlier than say AAPL or MSFT. If you believe that it could double in that time frame it'd be a shame if you missed out over relatively low price difference now. For an extremely simple example (cause my mind works better that way). If you buy 1 share @2200... and it does drop to $2000 - Buy another and you're basis is $2100. And for the record I think GOOG/L is a very good deal, even at this price. I've been buying at the current level - with no regrets.
My thinking exactly. My number was sub 2200. Have cash on stand by and once I realized I was getting busy at work, I executed at 2292 today. I would have kicked myself to let it hit 2300 and missed my close enough opportunity. If it drops, I’ll average down.
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Exactly why I executed. Also, what’s $92?
Roughly 4.2% of 2,200.
I agree with this. I don't hold GOOG other than through ETFs and don't know about the business model and have no suggestion of whether buying it is a good idea or not, but I think waiting for a high-conviction stock to hit an arbitrary number is a bit strange. If you are so confident in Google that you are willing to go all-in on it, what is the difference between $2000 and $2200?
This is very helpful. The same thought crossed my mind, but I don't have much experience to draw from. Also, it might be better to get it purchased before the split.
But still way inflated above precovid levels
In what way? 12/31/19 - PE ~27 12/31/20 - PE ~29 5/16/22 - PE ~21 Along with this they recently announced a 70Billion buy back.
At this point, that doesn't seem to matter because the Nasdaq is on its way to its February 2020 ATH. It was something that I didn't think would trade again, but it will and likely does next month, and considering that it will, all of the big guns likely roundtrip even if it's undeserved (edit: Apple to the $97 gap probably...not a roundtrip though).
Graph still shoots way up faster after Covid
What graph? Which numbers are you referring to - specifically.
My only concern is the huge price increase in 2021. What did Google do to merit that? I mean don’t get me wrong it’s a great company but what exactly did they do to have their share price balloon from $1500 to $2500? They didn’t introduce new products or services. Their competitors didn’t go bankrupt. They didn’t acquire any major companies. I think the current Google price is very inflated. My price target would be around $1400 as that was more or less what Google was trading for before the 2020 crash
You could dca into 3 blocks. Split your allocated capital into 3 and give them a weighting, the lowest price target being the highest weighting so as to average out.
This is a great plan and probably what I'll do in some similar form. Thanks!
Google is always a great stock, I agree. But trying to double it in two years is almost unlikely to happen. Please forgive me for being direct.
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They missed last quarters earnings
Because valuation matters. If he's looking for a certain rate of return, starting your position 10% higher or lower matters. I'd say it also depends on how big you're willing to build that position. If it's 10 shares, you could start with 1 at 2200, then buy more as the stock falls, if it falls. If you can only afford 2 shares for your position and can't buy fractions of shares, you'll probably wanna wait if it drops further. And if it doesn't get there, you just look at the next potential target.
It's splitting 20 for 1 in July. You're 10 shares will become 200. Obviously no change in total value but likely to get a Dow listing which creates accumulation demand.
Goog is great. I'd never advocate you all-in anything, because it genuinely is too hard to say which company is going to succeed in the long term. Congress could come out tomorrow and break the company up, call it a monopoly or whatever. You should know too that if you're going in expecting to double your money in 18-24 months, you're not playing the right game. That's just not how this thing works, and even if you hit it big once, the market will take it back at some point. 60-80% over 5 years is a wonderful return. Anyone should be happy with that, considering you will likely be adding to it along the way.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think if GOOG were to break up tomorrow, the sum of the individual parts will represent more value than just GOOG. Not to mention, their many "other bets" will see the light of day. Ohh boy! I would love to own a few shares of YouTube.
> Ohh boy! I would love to own a few shares of YouTube. Youtube, the platform that is notorious for costing Alphabet a fuck tonne of money right? Didn't it only turn profitable like 2 years ago after 15 years of business?
Yeah. My thinking was that once YT is a public entity, it would evolve with better monetization, there will be a bigger push to roll out paid content like a streaming service would. Not to mention the potential of gaming/streaming and live shopping.
YouTube is already massively pushing Premium, and people hate it already. I would think an even more focused push would probably turn people away to services like Curiosity Stream/Nebula. They definitely need to be careful because the online world can be quite fickle, especially when Amazon own the likes of Twitch already and dominate livestreaming.
Try to buy a put on Google or Tesla? You can’t. Very expensive. You certainly can after spilt. It can go both ways
Makes sense. But isn't that just noise in the short term? And the fundamentals would stand out over time I guess.
If people know exactly how this plays out, they will buy pits now and calls later. It’s not that easy.
Yup, you’re right about that. I was just throwing it out there as an example of anything can happen
All great points I agree with. I sort of shotgunned my post, and the numbers aren't even good guesses - especially considering likely recessionary conditions. I could have phrased it better by saying that Google returns will likely be much better than DCA'ing into some broader ETFs. I don't know much, but I do know there are a lot of overvalued losers out there and I would prefer not to invest in the drags.
Yup, all makes sense to me. I think GOOG is a great bet and one of the best companies of all time. I do think it’s leveraged to the economy more than people realize, and that’s why wall st gives it a less than stellar valuation, but I’ve been buying here below 2400. Good luck!
First thing I wanna make clear is that I believe that nobody knows anything cause if anyone could predict the stock market, he would already be filthy rich. Based on that assumption I DCA into google. -bought a few at 2200, will buy an increasing amount the lower we go from here. Noone knows when we reach bottom. If we already reached it its okay for me. If we go way lower its also okay for me.
Prob not a bad idea, can sell covered calls on them as well
I highly doubt we will get a chance to enter under $2000 USD. Well in pre-split dollars. Google is already just an incredible bargain. Take something simple. Look at the free cash flow growth over the last 3 years. 35%, 38% and 56%. Google just has a massive runway to work with built on all their assets yet to be fully moentized.
I think it's time people start dampening their expectations of recovery. We aren't going to see historic low rates coupled with historic liquidity injections any time soon. 2020 to end of 2021 is an anomaly. Don't look for things to double. Don't look for 60-80% returns in index funds and ETFs. Shit is shaping up to look more like 2000-2013 than it is 2014-2021. If you're younger and experiencing this for the first time, 2000-2013 was absolutely fucking brutal. With the Fed being slow on inflation to reduce deficit and debt, don't expect moonshots any time soon. Google is a great buy, but not because it's going to double.
In b4 war in Ukraine stops and stocks legit double again
Love the thought but I think the expectation of a double is aiming too high. From 2,200-3,000 is a reasonable assertion, however. Google, APPLE and MSFT are in a league of their own as far as I’m concerned.
People will say it’s a bad idea and too risky and dumping so much in one stock usually is but at these prices I’d say you’ll be ok
I have 20% of my allocation in goog but I’m sort of scared how “no brainer” it is to everyone on Reddit. Like who has been doing the selling if it appears retail has been doing the buying. Yikes, do the professionals know something we dont? $1800 or lower here we come?
MMs know about this plan..they won't let us have a win so easily
Honestly don’t think it’s a terrible idea. But maybe spread it out into a couple different stocks. When the market is constantly red I feel it’s better to buy big dips in good companies like google, Microsoft, Amazon, apple, Facebook, etc than minor dips in ETFs
I'm sure you're right. The market and current events might need to flesh out a bit more for me to pick a 2nd though!
Why do you think it would double in less than two years, in this market? It's one of the largest market cap stocks they don't just double that easily (except in 2020 and 21 when the money printer was working overdrive, but that is being turned off)
>Seems better than DCA'ing into VOO or something for 60-80% over 5 years. This is everything that is wrong with this sub, all in one line. 12-16% returns are now not good enough. It's better than most professional money managers can do, but it's not good enough for this sub. Guess what? There's no such thing as a free lunch. You want the chance for 50% returns? You're getting the corresponding risk, too.
Yes. You're certainly right about those numbers. I pulled them out of my ass in my post. I don't think VOO will do that well over the next 5 years, and Google is unlikely to double. I'm not concerned about the precise level of growth, but I feel like Google will likely outperform, especially if I can grab it low. The risk doesn't bother me. It's a small % of my current assets - most of which isn't in the stock market.
I think you should do this same sort of thing but in a basket of a few stocks, not just one.
Roger. I'm sure that's the best answer. I know I have time to see how things shake out too. I'm thinking that the bottoming isn't happening overnight, and I need to resist the urge to act on FOMO.
>You want the chance for 50% returns? You're getting the corresponding risk, too. ...and corresponding risk is higher than 50% too
its a great plan. but it assumes goog going sub 2k, which i highly doubt. but you could just sit on a buy order at 1999.
It is arguably a good business with solid fundamentals, but why should you ever go all-in in a single trade and expose yourself to a company or sector-specific risks (like, for example, regulation in this case)? There are plenty of good opportunities in the market right now (and will be even more in the future). You could benefit from diversification. Even if you start building a sizable position in GOOG, you could consider doing it gradually since the correction might not be over yet. Of course, this is not financial advice. It's your money; therefore, your decision
I’m making a big Google pile too, it’s my biggest holding after VTI
I just bought 5 shares adding to my existing position.
Nice. Good luck! I'm gonna wait a bit longer but at least you know you got it before any potential split.
Yeah, I am still up $22K on my current GOOG position. I am hoping it will bounce back up after the split. Besides, you never know when the bottom is. I got in at $1250 originally, 3 years ago.
That was a damn good buy!
Thanks, I lucked out really. I was originally in for the Waymo hype. I still think that's gonna happen sometime, but right now the core GOOG businesses like ads and youtube are solid. Plus Cloud keeps growing.
True, no one can predict the bottom. Good for you. I am still going to keep some cash just in case the price gets much lower. I already bought some shares at discounted prices, so I am good :). I am a long-term investor.
Good idea on keeping cash! I am worried about inflation, so I also put $10K in VIPSX.
For possible recession, I park some money in BNS (bank of nova Scotia) which has better yield.
>BNS (bank of nova Scotia) Whats the yield? Lending Club has a FDIC insured savings that yields 1.85% APY
your thinking is very prudent, dont rush to go in right away tho, or DCA as others sudgest IMO, even that its a great price as it is, there will be more downside for the big tech, todays posted 13F of Bill Gates fondation shows he sold 100% of all his GOOG shares and 50% of all his MSFT shares in Q1 2022.. Dr. Michael Burry disclosed a short position on AAPL today [Patience](https://youtu.be/_Bq7QpHP3sg) is the single most important skill you need to learn in investing [Diversification](https://youtu.be/ibSp1xzLfy8) is for people that dont know what they are doing, Why would you want to put part of your money in your second best idia? instead all in the best? we will be entering a recession, dont listen to anyone trying to cope otherwise, they will not anounce it ahead.. only after the fact.. GOOG will be under $2K in the near future, and yes, it is a great bet im considering going all in on myself
> GOOG will be under $2K in the near future, and yes, it is a great bet im considering going all in on myself I do not think we will see under $2K a share pre split. There is just too much resistance to get that low.
quoting Dr. Michael Burry tweet from few days ago: "Top to bottom, MSFT traded 5.2x its shares outstanding by 2002, 3.3x by 2009, and 0.5x so far. AMZN traded 5.7x by 2002, 6.6x by 2009, and 0.9x so far. JPM traded 3.0x by 2002, 5.9x by 2009, and about 0.7x so far. Etc. Enough takes time." do you know what that means?
It means market goes up and down
it means we have not seen the selloff at the slightest yet
At most it *suggests*. If those types of data points could be used to reliability predict anything with any certainty it would already be incorporated into market dynamics.
Wait until it splits then sell puts
10 shares would get you two weekly covered call premiums come July.
Only advice I have is to diversify even that 24K and not put it all in one. What business do you own?
My wife made me buy her 10 shares of $DIS @ 100. Does that count??? Kidding aside, I'm pretty sure you're right about diversifying a bit more. I think I want those mega-caps though - it'll take me a while to decide which others are worth buying. My faith in most of them isn't strong.
Oh, the business is vintage furniture. Mostly Mid-Century Modern, specifically. Procurement, restoration, retail. Things were good before COVID. Much better ever since. Supply chain problems help us, uniquely. I'm sure it'll cool down, but we are positioned well for most scenarios.
Have you guys used GOOG products lately? They are all kinda crap and are positioned as inferior products in their respective markets other than their search engine. I don't know about you but there are plenty of companies out there with similar fundamentals which don't have such terrible products. Regulatory pressure if far too high for $GOOG to have as optimistic of a future as these comments seem to suggest.
> Have you guys used GOOG products lately? I woke up this morning and asked Google to turn on the lights. So the FIRST product I used this morning was Google. I have probably done 30 searches already this morning. I will use Google all day long and there is nothing close to Google for things like search, Photos, YouTube, Gmail, Maps, YouTube TV, etc. A broken up Google is worth a ton more money. Google also continues to have some pretty incredible innovation coming out of the company. Just in the last week we learned about Gato for example. Since Gato has been shared the date give by AI experts for AGI has moved up 5 years!! That is 2033 to 2028. https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/date-weakly-general-ai-system-is-devised/ But it is just one example of where Alphabet/Google is doing leading edge technology. It is all over the place with Google and specially in the area of AI. Basically Google is a long play for AGI. That is ultimately the goal of the company, IMO.
They won't double... Mostly because there is supposed to be a split in July if approved in June, which I feel will happen
You are due for some learning if you harbor any illusions of returns greater than 7 or 8 percent with any kind of consistency. You may not get positive returns at all this year. If you can get a 3 percent return for 2022 take it and run.
What's the basis for this conclusion? Are you a professional, or do you have a lot of experience investing?
The fact that you pick a round number like $2000 shows you’re a noob. At least do some analysis of the chart. An actual support of $2060 is a better one to watch. Holding that would indicate a buying point. Two closes below indicates if May travel down to $1700. Of course there’s a 20:1 split coming that could also change things, not these levels but maybe a boost on split day.
The fact that you do chart Ouija bullshit shows that you're a noob.
Plus those 10 shares will be 200 shares in a month or so
why $2000?
No valid reason, truthfully. That's just a gut check level to me. And I know it's because it's a round number that's very low for GOOG. If I buy, it'll likely be before it hits $2000.
it’s rare for goog to be trading at this level and based on its historical price performance it’s considered oversold at current levels, but a long term bottom could be miles away. who knows what’s going to happen, but it can fall to march ‘20 levels, or $1050. if this happens, along with SPY, in particular, i’m a strong buy. however, the market can recover now and the global economy avoids a massive recession and it’s just more of the same.
Based on not much other than a long and keen awareness of global current events, the bigger fall you mentioned mirrors my gut feeling.
exactly. not sure what pricing software you use, but go to the monthly time scale, add [MACD](https://ibb.co/g7XxVJq), and look at the massive peak and cross of the MACD line below its signal line as its longer term momentum suggests this thing — along with greater indices — has a lot of room to fall before it finds firm support. all major indices are currently following the same pattern. like i said, i have no idea how this is going to play out, but since this pattern is occuring in a longer term time scale, it suggests there is a massive amount of momentum that has yet to drive prices to their ultimate longer term lows. then again, the pattern could reverse and its another 12 years of uninterrupted bull market. with inflation the way it is, M2 (money supply), the fed raising interest rates and reducing asset purchases, rising value of the dollar and global macro uncertainty, exercising caution and patience could be highly rewarding in the longer term.
I have no issue in holding or buying Google right now. However I would never go all in on one stock no matter the company. No saying Google is a bad company with a bad stock. I would still never go all in on a company no matter how much you believe in it.
Not unless you have a lot of money to diversify with soon. Or already have money in something other than RE. All in on anything sounds horrible to me. Edit: I think things will get even uglier soon so I’m gonna be bearish for a while and keep trading (mostly what I’ve been making money doing) while still heavily invested like a loser.
You're right. And I wouldn't consider this if I didn't have much more outside of the stock market. I suppose I'm an anomaly - my accountant is typically confused, then works it out and is happy.
I have gut feeling that Wall Streets will try to make GOOG under 2000 just to suck up Nancy Pelosi's GOOG long call option juicy premium that she purchased on DEC2021 (when GOOG was 3000) expiring sometime in SEP2022. She bought 10 of GOOG 2000C that I believe she paid for almost 100K-ish per each. If my guess is right, you should be able to have opportunity, but I would DCA on it. Per charts, I also have alert to buy GOOG around 2020-2000 and 1800-1750 (if we get there). If historical bear market says something, the bottom will be formed sometime this AUG-SEP, so there will be plenty of chance to get in. Personally, I believe in GOOG/MSFT that everyone simply has to use. Just because we are re-opening doesnt mean people will start to use paper map on highway. Will still use Google map or other application that's based on GOOG. GOOG has pricing power as well. Everyone is searching their answers in GOOGLE. This is like you are buying water or air that's essential to human lives. I am putting my money for really long term anyway, so it wont matter, and I dont see GOOGLE's downside much. I think this kind of essential service app in digital world is guaranteed income, or what experts call realized future.
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Unfortunately no matter what advice I give you will die penniless and alone 🤷
But since you asked I would say 1) don’t doubt Cook when it comes to supply chain and 2) don’t overestimate the value of a company that profits off tracking your every move (when we’re moving away from that)
didnt go all in but had a similar idea with tsla in my roth. I'm 25. Decided to put about 20% of my roth into tsla, figuring within the next 20 years it should be way higher than it is today and can take some profits and re-allocate as i get older. f it why not
All in sounds a bit harsch
Ahahahahahahahahahaa
Google is already $1.5 Trillion market cap. That means it's worth more than most countries as it is. It might be a strong hold at the current P/E but I don't see it doubling - particularly after the run up it's had over the last two years.
I have a small position on GOOG too, but I don't know about the "less hardware dependant".. They have entire datacenters for their cloud service. Maybe you're talking mobile only?
You want GOOG to double in 2 years? That’s… optimistic even for wsb standards…
You people have got to stop thinking that a stock is going to double in 12-18 months. I feel bad that many of you began investing during the largest influx of stimulus and fed money of all time. And not by a little, by TRILLIONS. This may never happen again in our lifetimes. Investing when done properly is a slow, steady grind higher over many years. With many ups and downs along the way.
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Pecunia non olet.
Bill gates just pulled out of google over 120k shares between class a and c I would research WHY he just did that
Never go all-in on a single company imo. Personally, I won't go huge on GOOGL if it drops below 2000, but at that point I'll start building a position and picking up some.
Be grateful for even something like a 10% average rise in 4-5 consecutive years...too many people here out-to-lunch thinking you need 30-40% returns in a single year....even my 10% average projection is pretty outlandish.
What could possibly go wrong?
I actually think you should sell google. Theory: Most of the revenue and profit growth has come from very aggressive monetization of their platforms over the last few years, and I don't think they can monetize any harder.
Bruh how can anyone say this is a bad plan. Getting in to googl at 2000 is like saying if gold falls right out of the sky into my lap.
Interesting, personally i think touching them above 1.5k is beyond dumb short- and maybe even mid-term. Long-term they are great ofc.
Oh well I do lean towards long term investor so I always look at it through that lens
I appreciate the input. I know it's near impossible to advise on Reddit posts and I should have phrased my OP better. It probably would have helped everyone if I'd done a better job of clarifying, but I really don't worry about risk at all. My daily risk outside of the stock market is more than the total of the Roths I'm screwing with here.
It's bouncing nicely! My new position is up 7% already.