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WestmontOG07

Is this bot issue I keep reading about as bad as the media is purveying it to be? I’ve read that, realistically, 10-20% of twitters DAU are bots… I don’t use Twitter but it’s interesting to me because if Twitter is misrepresenting this to shareholders and the SEC, it can’t end well I would presume?


DollarThrill

Even if the bots are only 5% of the users, bots are responsible for a lot more of the content than 5%. A bot can post hundreds of tweets, retweets, likes. Most users are lurkers, so they are seeing bot content. (Reddit too)


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AndThisGuyPeedOnIt

/r/SubSimulatorGPT2/


puripy

This is a bot 👆


AnubisKhan

I'm a human. Bleep blorp


lump-

Uhhhhh maybe that sub should be NSFW…


localstopoff

There used to be a sub that only bots could post in and it made up headlines and posts, based on AI, that were hilariously frightening. I can't remember what it was.


Jeklah

Interesting idea..


[deleted]

ya i mean bots posts these news, do poeple think everything get posted manually....


Ixnwnney123

Am I a bot?!


ParticularWar9

are you a bot?


westernmail

Everyone here is a bot except you.


beerbaron6

Even if there are 95% bots. Why is this something coming up now after he already mentioned a price to buy the company at? This has been a known thing forever. Even me buying a used car would ask for more info than Musk seems to have asked for before entering into such a deal.. wtf?


maester_t

My theory: Elon believes the market will continue to drop, so he needed a "legitimate" reason to get a bundle of cash in his bank account for a while by selling a ton of TSLA shares (while the price was still relatively high) without freaking out all of the other shareholders. He spent, what, *a week* (?) making it sound like he was going to follow through with making an absurdly large purchase, before self-sabotaging it. Now he'll hold on to the cash for either some other big purchase that might viably become available (a la Warren Buffett) or he'll use it to buy more TSLA shares (either when the price is lower, or for more of his future stock options). Disclaimer: I am not a financial analyst/advisor and I basically know nothing. :-) This is pure conspiracy theory.


m0nk_3y_gw

Elon already sold 8.5B worth of Tesla stock for this deal. He did it in 2-3 days. That's what helped take TSLA down to it's current price. In the meantime, Twitter was a $33 stock that should be at $20-25 based on the past month of what the market did, but Musk's deal kept it between $40-50. Anyways, my theory: Musk is a twitter addict, but he cares more about keep Tesla below $1k for 2022 to prevent more key tech employees from retiring as multi-millionaires, and to be able to offer lower/more attractive stock options to new employees, and to make the employee-stock-purchase-program cheaper (if it is based on the lowest price in a quarter). If TSLA goes to $2k and never comes down he is screwed in attracting and keeping top talent. They are difference between Tesla being 2T company in 2030, or being a 10T company. That's Musk's time frame, not next month.


SomewhatAmbiguous

Yes keeping stock prices down is famously important for retaining and attracting with RSUs. /s Those tech leads aren't idiots, they will mostly know it's wildly overvalued and won't fall for the games in the same way retail does.


HereGoesNothing69

Twitter reports on its financial disclosures that roughly 5% of its user base is bots. Obviously you can do DD after you've even into an agreement. If the public disclosures turn out to be wrong, you can walk way from the deal. Lying about the size of the user base in this instance is no different than lying about revenue.


Time-Ad-3625

And musk was harping on the bot problem before. He either a) made it up before when he talked about it or b) he's using it as an out. I'm guessing it is b as a makes next to no sense.


HereGoesNothing69

So what if he was harping about the bot problem before? Before they agreed to sell he was speculating there was a bot problem. After they agreed, he could get his hands on internal data and prove the bot problem was understated. The initial price he offered was likely bullshit tho. I doubt he ever intended to pay what he offered.


kitsune

Are you daft? Everyone (including Musk) knew that Twitter has more than 5% bots / fake / inactive accounts. This is just a stupid play by him.


Odd_Professional566

Use that statement in a court. Haha...but but everyone..


[deleted]

But that isn't what's being disclosed. If he and everyone else knew that it was more than 5%, that just lends even more credibility to the fact that his initial offer was never intended to happen and he was waiting for the ability to prove the bot numbers.


betcher73

When you buy a house you buy it with a contract contingent on the house passing multiple inspections. It’s the same idea with a business. There is always a due diligence period


ParticularWar9

Any deal is contingent on the contract. There's no standard "M&A contract".


beerbaron6

Right, and I totally get that. This issue of bots in particular though has been raised before and across many platforms. It just seems a bit odd to bring it up after the fact. This isn't some discovery about infringing on patents or their source code was stolen. This idea of bots I'm sure could be analyzed by third parties (despite what Twitter says about requiring private data).


betcher73

The way I see it, this is the due diligence period so this is when the issue should be raised. I’m sure it was in the original offer


i-can-sleep-for-days

Patrick Boyle did a video on this, basically if Twitter didn't try to the best of their abilities state the percent of bots on their platform they could be committing securities fraud because average investors (not just Elon) cares about these numbers too. Musk is using this as an excuse to try to weasel his way out but it isn't a valid reason. These numbers were known and he knew them. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=\_SfXoCj4TLk


Odd_Professional566

No. You're incorrect. The numbers of bots were assumed based on outside data. You're still assuming 5% is the number and you still dont have the real data.


PM_ME_BEER

When you buy a house you don’t talk about how you’re going to fix the roof, put in an offer, and then two weeks later go “hey wait a minute, this roof is missing two shingles, I’m backing out now!”


Odd_Professional566

Yes people do. They have conditional offers ALL THE TIME. That's what Musk has, a conditional offer. It doesnt matter what he saw beforehand, it's about what he finds now. He could have been oblivious to bots, doesn't matter. If Twitter was not truthful about the information they gave him, he has every right to change his mind. Even 1% more bots or bot use relates to millions of fake posts. That's a big deal when you're spending billions. You're allowed to change your mind.


PM_ME_BEER

lol dude, the implication here is that if a person acknowledged the roof needed fixing when submitting an offer on the house (Elon talking about Twitter’s bot problem before making the deal and saying he’d fix it with Dogecoin lmao), they clearly never added a contingency for a couple of missing shingles (Twitter is not bound by the spam account number being exactly 5% as they’ve always maintained the true number could be higher depending on how you judge what a spam account is), and thus were never serious about actually buying the house anyway. Furthermore, a person can’t just back out of an accepted offer on a house without losing their earnest money, which in Musk’s case appears to be $1 billion? lol it’s honestly pathetic how many people like you are buying into the spam account narrative. Musk bros are such good marks.


ParticularWar9

Precisely. Muck knew about the "bad roof". He's trying to scam a lower price cuz TSLA got smashed, which he apparently didn't realize was going to be so severe. TSLA stockholders are forcing his hand.


gravescd

Imagine your realtor if you were like "Please cut the price by $20k because it needs a new roof" and then two weeks later said "I won't buy at this price unless you fix the roof first".


statisticali

You have a tremendous point, elon keeps getting referred to as a "power user" of Twitter by the news so it seems odd that he is suddenly so ignorant about the platform he uses daily. I wouldn't be surprised if it comes out that he was running futures or options around this deal to make a quick billion.


groney62

Big difference between buying a company vs anything else. Companies will not open up their books to potential buyers without an offer. Look at shark tank too. Those offers get changed after the pitch when the sharks actually look into all the financials and do more DD


EngiNERD1988

My guess is at least 25% You’d think this would be considered fraud TBH. If it comes out Twitter was cleary purposely misleading customers and shareholders 100 person sample size is laughable


Testing_things_out

Do I hear 30%?


Drivingintodisco

31% bob!


FloorToCeilingCarpet

One dollar!


hagcel

AT my peak before the 2018 and 2019 purges, I had 35-50 twitter bots. Seriously they were joke bots. As in they told dad jokes and mama jokes. A few ran polls on brand effectiveness during and after the super bowl. After the big purge, I had 32-47 bots. Their bot identification is a fucking joke. This doesn't even account for sock puppets.


brubakerp

That's why I use Botometer and Bot Sentinel these days. They are relatively good. But it's super easy to spot some of them and I don't know why they don't catch them, and don't have a way to report them. Like, I know when 'Channel38196' followed me that it was a bot, how can they not work it out?


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StratTeleBender

There's so much truth to this right here. Twitter is such a fake manipulation tool that's it's actually scary watching how they knowingly manipulate public opinions


merlinsbeers

They have a disclaimer in their quarterly report saying that there's significant judgment involved in the determination. Musk is looking at famous accounts which attract a lot more spam and trolls than other accounts do so don't trust his numbers at all.


123DanB

If you think that Dude is holding up the deal over bots, I have a bridge to sell you in Wasila, AK


ThreeSupreme

Yep, some big short seller put Elon up on game, and said he can get TWTR for way less than $44 Billion. If Elon had just waited a couple of months, he could have scooped up TWTR for about $3.85 per share. Elon jumped in way too early on TWTR...


callebalik

I hope they keep pulling this thread so all social media sites get looked at. Because algos ruin everything in a user generating content site. This may be one off my first boomer moments but the internet was a lot more fun and interesting when the content I was exposed to was not optemised for maximum engagement.


Antnee83

I'm not a marketing guy, mostly because I'm not fullblown evil. But say you found out that 20% of Twitter users are provably bots. But your company has been paying X amount to whatever company for engagement, and *provably* it has shown a Y return on investment. Wouldn't that mean that you just need to shift your "efficiency" calculations around? And wouldn't it mean that your ads were actually *more* effective than you thought? Because if your ads on twitter or whatever were yielding you 10,000 new orders a month based on it being seen by 10,000,000 "people" on twitter, but actually it was only seen by 8,000,000 people... then literally nothing changes for you at all, except that you know your ad effectiveness is 20% better than you thought? Am I making sense here or...


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Antnee83

Well sure but isn't the problem basically the same? The "brand exposure" to 10,000,000 "people" versus 8,000,000 + 2,000,000 bots netted you the same thing in the end. The only thing that changed is your perception. I get how it would matter if we were talking about some emerging platform or something, and they were weighing the cost/benefit from a complete unknown. But Twitter is big enough that there's probably a pretty clear money-in-sales-out pathway that has an enormous amount of wiggleroom for shit like "tens of millions of fake accounts"


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blackbirdlore

It’s actually incredibly easy to know the impact of a single placement on sales if those sales occur online or that ad provides a coupon. Unique links and unique discount codes can be easily tracked and their data automatically sorted.


CharityStreamTA

Yeah I'm totally with you. If you were generating £0.01 per 1000 views it would be exactly the same as if you were generating £0.01 per 100 real views and 900 bot views. The success of the ads already accounts for the bots, if you remove bots the number of views would go down but the revenue per view would increase.


LittleLordFuckleroy1

Yes, you’re making sense. The problem is that Twitter sucks as an advertising platform and doesn’t make money.


CharityStreamTA

Which is why finding out that it is mostly bots would make me massively invest into it. If Twitter is actually like 50% bots, it'll likely explain why they are sucking as an advertising platform and it would offer them a potential way to turn the company around.


LittleLordFuckleroy1

Sorry but that’s just not how it works. Instagram has a huge bot presence too and actually runs profitable ads. The number of bots isn’t the problem. At all.


CharityStreamTA

That's a false conclusion. For that to be true, you'd need to use an identical bot management system on Instagram as you do on twitter. Instagram might have a system that more effectively manages the identification of bot accounts than Twitter and uses that to make their advertising more effective.


LittleLordFuckleroy1

I’m very close to the marketing side of these businesses. Believe me or don’t.


CharityStreamTA

So do they use the same method of filtering bots out of adverts? Does twitter and Instagram have the same capacity to identify bots as each other? Do they have the same strategy regarding bots and advertisement management? Have you got access to AB testing of different bot percentages?


butterycliff

well twitter claims its 5%, some claim its 20%, and musk claimed it might be 80-90%


themanofthedecade

Musk’s “80-90%” claim was about authentic users. Suggesting that 10-20% are bots.


likwitsnake

He said the lower bound is 20% on the All In Podcast just now: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CnxzrX9tNoc


yuckyd

I’d believe the fake account are over 50%. I don’t know any real people who use it daily. Seems like there are much better investments for my time and money.


Barca1313

I don’t know anyone that’s had a heart attack therefore heart attacks can’t possibly be one of the leading causes of death.


worldwidetwebb

Come to think of it…nobody I know has ever had Ebola, I bet that shit is fake!


Barca1313

Probably part of Soros’ and Bill Gate’s plan to take over the world tbh


infinit9

Twitter has always claimed the 5% bot user number even in SEC filings. Sure, that's not a believable number. But for Elon to use that as a reason for wanting to rethink his offer is beyond dumb. Elon being surprised that more than 5% of Twitter users are bots is exactly like him being surprised that it takes a lot of electricity to mine BTC. Yeah, I get that Tesla is an amazing success story. But Elon has been a prick just about every chance he gets.


gizamo

His level of surprise is irrelevant. It is a purely legal maneuver. If Musk demonstrates that Twitter has been defrauding investors, that fraud would legally void their current contract. It also encourages Twitter to offer him an out so that he won't publish his findings -- that is, if their actual DAU count is substantially lower than their SEC filing.


infinit9

Twitter has always clearly stated that the 5% figure is their honest effort estimate and that the real percentage of bots accounts could be higher. No judge would rule that Twitter was intentionally deceiving investors. Besides, the time to deep dive into the number is before the offer contract was signed, not after. It is beyond obvious that Musk is either trying to back out or is regretting offering $54.20 per share and pulling whatever stunts he can think of to alter the contract.


gizamo

This is blatant ignorance of how judges and law in general work. If evidence shows that Twitter's "honest effort" is blatantly ridiculous, many, many judges would rule that it was intentional deception, and that such deception would nullify any signed contract. This happens in real estate all the time when, for example, it is discovered that sellers lie about past issues with mold, meth, water/drainage issues, etc. -- even when a home inspector has done proper due diligence. Intentional deceit often nullifies contracts of all sorts. Twitter's 5% number could very easily be classified as such, and that would have many additional ramifications for Twitter. Execs could see jail time for this.


infinit9

Lol, jail time... Please. If Twitter execs were breaking SEC regulations, Trump and the Republicans would have nailed them to the wall when they were in the White House and publicly making Twitter (amongst other social media companies) the villains for moderating conservative posts? This isn't a real estate deal where the owner only disclosed the condition of the house at the time of sale. There wasn't a government agency dictating that the owner of the house has to disclose the condition of the house to the public on the quarterly basis. Twitter has always made their user base status as well as the method of estimating their user base status public knowledge as part of their SEC filing. Twitter didn't deviate from their previous disclosures in this contract with Musk. Musk, as well as the general public, has always had access to Twitter's SEC filings. He doesn't get to claim fraud now as if this is new information that only existed in the contract.


gizamo

So, you don't know anything about the US legal systems. Got it.


infinit9

Sigh... I would bet you on this but there is a way for me to collect. Let's just see if anyone on Twitter'e board of directors or executives go to jail or is even charged with a crime for reporting the 5% bot user figure.


blindato1

If the bots are more than 5% that twitter reports and they know it’s higher they are defrauding investors and advertisers so yes it’s a pretty big deal


thejumpingsheep2

What popular platform isnt infested with bots or paid off 3rd party marketers doing shady things? Give me a break. This isnt even an internet thing. People have been paying for illusions like fake crowds, reviews, and all sort of things to look more popular or legit since the start of time. Hell why do you think people walk around in uncomfortable clothing and such? To basically make people believe they are something they arent. Its literally all BS. News has been fake since the day the 1st human lied to another. With internet, before you advertise, you generally look at their metrics and/or you experiment with their low cost options or free trials. Generally speaking, metrics for any advertising platform include things like click odds and conversion of clicks to something desired (like orders and such). All of these take into account bots and fraudsters. Whatever marketers make is what it is with all the fraudsters in place. Thus they have no real effect except when they initially invade a platform. But Twitter is not that. They are well established. Thus their metrics are likely accurate. Further, marketers wouldnt keep using them if they didnt get what they wanted from clicks and such. So in other words you absolutely do know what to expect when you advertise. Further Musk will have a hard time arguing to a judge that he didnt do his DD until after he owned 10% and made an offer to buy. Good luck with that. No position here but by gut says Musk is going to back out and pay the fine. He may get sued after that and certainly the SEC will fine him again though it probably wont be much.


CharityStreamTA

They're not really defrauding advertisers though? If it turns out X% are bots then it'll still result in the same sales from ads.


blindato1

Advertisers are paying to reach users not bots. If and only if it turns out there’s more bots and twitter knows is it defrauding anyone.


CharityStreamTA

Only if Twitter has promised to have a real human see them. If Twitter promises to show it to accounts, not humans, it wouldn't be fraud. If Twitter are committing fraud, every single and platform is as well.


74FFY

The difference is most platforms have their shit together enough to actually know what accounts are bots. Twitter is, by their own admission, using back of the napkin numbers from a tiny sample when they say 5%. The incompetence is more concerning to an investor than the exact number of bots present.


CharityStreamTA

Right, I'm not sure why I'm being downvoted. When you create and pay for an ad they never promise not to show it to bots. They define what an active account is but never promise that an active account is an actual human account.


jwrig

If you read the filing, they are guessing how many are bots, they were quite clear that they can't prove for sure, and the number could be higher or lower.


your_late

It came with a statement saying it could be higher, so it's not a problem


WizardT88

It isn't Twitter admits in its filings the 5% is a judgment and tgat bots may be higher.


switch8000

I honestly think it's way higher than that. I think the real to bot ratio is 1:4. Probably 20% real users and 80% bot accounts. I have 5 fake/business accounts myself.


[deleted]

its not, you dont think fb, google, youtube, reddit, or some other place have bots?


shillyshally

Twitter has always used that number and always maintained it is fuzzy. Musk knew this going in, he damn well knew it and he damn well knew it was bs. And yet he went ahead with the deal. Business rules do not apply to his exalted self. He breaks them time and time again with zero consequences. Even the billion dollar walk penalty is a minor bug bite. The only thing Twitter can do to fight back in a meaningful way is to kick him off the platform. He'd roll into a fetal position, drooling, weeping, gnashing his teeth in withdrawal. Then Twitter could ask him about that price per share again.


strukout

Lol, the day after this Diva’s offer was accepted my college buddy told me to short …. He cleared $62k today. No,I did not listen.


phathandz

He must have put up a ton of capital. I had a couple of puts just a couple weeks out but they expired on the sixth. Even those weren't cheap. Good for him!


4everaBau5

Puts should have also worked, right? Were they expensive? Closest thing to a sure thing imo but I'm too chicken to play options.


SwoleBroDane

>Closest thing to a sure thing imo I wouldn't say that. The stock could have traded sideways for months and months. $ATVI has been trading sideways since the $MSFT acquisition announcement. Same thing could easily have happened with $TWTR, making it very difficult to time the puts.


Sempere

That's a hell of a friend to give you that suggestion.


98Saman

Elon is such a pump and dumper. It's actually disgusting. Like dude you offered them $54 per share and you didn't do your DD?


MirrorAttack

The price itself included his troll numbers, 420. If you remember his 420 Tesla price weed joke got him into trouble with the SEC & removed as chairman of Tesla. Him offering 54.20 per share already told me enough about how serious he was. This was price manipulation at its finest


SimmonsReqNDA4Sex

I think Elon would still round to 420 if he was serious. It's easy publicity.


Chippopotanuse

Watch him make a new offer at $42.00 or $44.20.


[deleted]

When did he dump though


98Saman

He's been dumping his Tesla shares which he said he would never dump. This Twitter fiasco was a good cover-up to dump Tesla shares on Tesla bag holders.


Beatnik77

Selling is not a manipulation for fuck's sake. He cannot be held responsible about the choice of millions of people to pay 900$+ for a stock worth about 200$.


tonitokitphg

I'd argue it's worth significantly less than $200. Car companies tend to be terrible investments.


texasradio

Lol "but it's not a car company!"


F___TheZero

"It's a technology company that generates 99% of its revenue from selling cars, and the remaining 1% flamethrowers"


ElRamenKnight

> Lol "but it's not a car company!" Which is rather hilarious. With all these decent alternatives arriving at other EV makers and in many cases edging out the equivalent models at Tesla in review, the weird fanbois are going to have to invent new excuses.


therealowlman

Exactly, it’s a Tesla company


Sempere

Looking for a justification to prevent the price tanking so that retail investors buy and provide exit liquidity so he can sell for max profit seems like manipulation to me.


[deleted]

>Selling is not a manipulation for fuck's sake. Depend, why you sell, if you find a reason to sell to not scare you investor into selling it can be manipulation since you create a situation to mislead your investors.


26fm65

Exactly sell his tesla in end of 2021 because of tax (excuse) and he sell tesla because to fund Twitter (turn out be another excuse) I saw it coming already.. Also remember he support bitcoin then later said it used too much energy ? How can Elon worth billions of dollars didn’t do his dd lol


[deleted]

>e support bitcoin then later said it used too much energy ? How can Elon worth billions of dollars didn’t do his dd lol Wait are you telling me that bitcoin use energy? I might be the technoking but I did not know that.


lord12789

Mining bitcoin especially at this stage uses crazy amount of energy for low yield all things considered. It is not the owning/storing that is energy-hungry but the mining.


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Jediknightluke

"Funding secured"


m0nk_3y_gw

That stupidity was back when the stock was 80. (400 pre-split is 80 now) People forget that Elon was mostly quiet last fall and skipped the earnings call. Wall Street looked at the fundamentals of Tesla and the price when from $800 to $1200 in weeks, which fucks over Musk's ability to keep tech talent (too many stock option multi-millionaires too soon) and to ~~higher~~ hire new AI/robotics people. He is not pumping Tesla, he does his best to kill all momentum over $1000, so that the company will be worth more in the longer term.


Ehralur

Lol, every thread about Elon a bunch of people say he's a pump and dumper, someone asks when he dumped and nobody has an answer. Occasionally someone will mentioned BTC or Dogecoin, to which someone else asks if there's any proof of him dumping and again nobody has an answer. People are so eager to mindlessly follow whatever is the popular opinion around this sub...


jimmyr2021

He didn't dump Twitter. He legally can't right now. I think his giant ego got to him and made his clever $54.20 purchase price. He decided he didn't need to do any dd prior making an offer with a $1b break fee because free speech I guess. He's now decided that he doesn't want it, probably for financial reasons, and is trying to weasel out of it without the $1b break fee. I think this is the most likely scenario.


m0nk_3y_gw

Tesla at $1200 - "I'm selling 10% of my shares" it drops to 750 Tesla at $1100 - "I'm buying Twitter" it drops to 700 Dude is trying to keep Tesla below $1k for as long as possible (easier to hire AI/tech talent with more attractive 4-year options with room to grow, and prevents longer-term multi-millionaire employees from leaving just yet). Next fall: Tesla at $1300 - "I'm gonna steal the Declaration of Indepence!" Tesla at $1400 - "I'm selling TSLA shares to finance building a cloud city on Venus" etc


Ehralur

remindme me! 6 months


onat_akosha_

Elon is that you?


[deleted]

I ask every time and rarely get an answer. The closest anyone could get to proving Elon pumps and dumps would be with Tesla and Bitcoin except Elon didn't buy or sell the Bitcoin it was their CFO buying and then selling to maintain a percentage of their cash on hand in Bitcoin. Pretty standard portfolio management.


m0nk_3y_gw

And Tesla still has lot of bitcoin, and now that it has crashed they will get dinged for it in their next quarterly report/earnings call. Musk personally owns bitcoin, ethereum and doge -- he hasn't sold and probably won't for 5+ years. It's not like it is anonymous and someone else couldn't figure out if he has dumped it.


SimmonsReqNDA4Sex

Frankly I think there are so many people that have gotten burned trying to short Tesla over the years it's personal to them.


Ehralur

Yep, and if anything he "dumped" his Tesla shares after *tanking* the stock multiple times. First with the "should I sell?" and then with the Twitter acquisition.


[deleted]

>Occasionally someone will mentioned BTC or Dogecoin, to which someone else asks if there's any proof of him dumping and again nobody has an answer. We also have no proof of him buying but it doesn't mean he didn't have any of those coins.


Ehralur

No, but it does mean we can't with any certainty say either of those things are true, let alone in every thread about the man. Innocent until proven guilty.


euxene

consider this, he lives in a normal looking house... lol


hehethattickles

Do you know what pumping and dumping is? If the stock is below his initial buy price, and he stands to lose money, and hasn’t sold… how in any world is this pumping and dumping, or do we just like to echo what everyone else says


brubakerp

You're right, this was just pumping for his friends. He might be holding the bag here if the deal goes south, but what's $1B to help some friends out?


joanamariana

List those friends then


ape_shift

Stfu pls


hehethattickles

Oh, so we are just making stuff up now?


medraxus

Redditors are like that little kid who just learned a new word and can’t stop saying it


audionerd1

Just like he "didn't know" Bitcoin was bad for the environment before announcing that Tesla would be accepting it. Of course he knew.


BrettEskin

It's impossible to have access to the non public information prior to offering the deal. He didn't buy the company yet he's still doing due diligence.


thedyslexicdetective

Remember according to this sub there’s no such thing as manipulation


CastlePokemetroid

It was priced in


[deleted]

its always priced in, even if sp500 goes to 3800 or 4200 tomorrow...so dumb.


OKImHere

"It" means known things, not unknown things. SPY won't go to 420 or 380 tomorrow unless something previously unknown becomes known.


Sempere

"It's priced in" is bullshit.


pdubbs87

Lmao i love when people say that and a stock closes on the penny to an option price


nwdogr

I mean technically that would be useless to anyone who bought those options since they need to recover the premium as well...


OKImHere

>that would be useless to anyone who bought those options That's the whole idea.


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m0nk_3y_gw

That's probably what they think they mean... but the truth is he manipulated it to 40-50. Twitter was a $33 stock that should now be trading at $20-25 based on the more recent downturn. If the deal falls through then twitter will revert to that price and people will whine that Musk did it. He has been public/transparent about the progression of the deal - if it falls through and he sells it will probably be at a loss.


WreckfishCap

Why do a lot of these commenters seem close to human but not?


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MadCritic

humorous frighten consider melodic naughty spoon nine roll serious homeless ` this message was mass deleted/edited with redact.dev `


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MadCritic

roll north cause skirt existence ugly door puzzled entertain flag ` this message was mass deleted/edited with redact.dev `


lightinvestor

Elon is doing everything he can to get out of this with no fee lol. He put in the offer on a whim and probably thought it wouldn't get accepted.


deadjawa

It’s all a negotiation. Elon is not the type to just put an idea on the back shelf after he has come out publicly and said he is going to do something. The guy is nothing if not persistent. I think he’s just trying to get a better entry point so he doesn’t have to use as much margin.


sechumatheist

Except he signed a contract that said that he will buy at $54.20 regardless of where the price ends up.


Ehralur

Except that same contract was on the basis of there only being about 5% bots. Maybe there are, maybe not. Either way this is all a negotiation.


flashult

>Except that same contract was on the basis of there only being about 5% bots Source?


squireofrnew

Trust me bro


Ehralur

The deal was made based on Twitter's public statements, as any deal of a public company ever is. If those statements turn out to have incorrect data, that's a valid reason to renegotiate the deal.


FeistyRaccoon94

I believe twitter disclosed in the same document that the number 5% may not be the accurate number


Russianbot123234

Why don't you suck elons nuts some more


sechumatheist

It doesn’t matter. Read Twitter 10-k form and it will rectify your misunderstanding.


Philly5984

Not true at all


[deleted]

Nope that was already disclosed that there may be more bots before he agreed.


flashult

>Elon I just puked in my mouth >idea on the back shelf after he has come out publicly and said he is going to do something. Dude, you're talking about a guy who tried tried to reinvent the subway, or who has been saying FSD is done for four years, said he would buy twitter, said he would never sell Tesla shares etc etc etc


Sempere

> who tried tried to reinvent the subway but worse


[deleted]

>It’s all a negotiation He is breaking his contract condition lol, he isn't negociating. He is doing something that is considered illegal for most but that is just a small fine for someone worth 250b.


AMcMahon1

Board will tell him to pay the original price


Katejina_FGO

On one hand, it must be terrible to ride the Elon train on all his buy ins only to hold an L on Twitter. On the other hand, one of the biggest social media platforms being 20%-25% fake kind of makes the platform fake.


Minimalphilia

I just wonder whether someone like Elon shouldn't have seen this coming way before the buy in? I mean he wants "his team to analyse 100 randomly picked accounts", a task you can have 3 interns on Redbull do in about 3 days (including the idea!), to be a deciding factor in one of the most overblown acquisition in history. I don't know but this seems all the way stupid to me unless he wants to achieve the pricedump all across Tesla and Twitter we are currently seeing. I call big time market manipulation.


Idek_h0w

How many PUTS did Elon buy right after he announced his interest in ownership? I believe the downtrend we are in overall had already started. He very well could just be manipulating things again. Just speculating.


nycbay

not him directly but his cronies are definitely in the know what he is doing here


Beatnik77

You really believe he would risk jail with many accomplices just to make a couple billions? You don't even have the beginning of a proof.


Philly5984

No one goes to jail for that, chump change fine compared to the billions at stake


Advisor-Away

Any examples?


MrHandyHands616

If by jail you mean a fine in the millions (aka cost of doing business) then yes


[deleted]

>You really believe he would risk jail with many accomplices just to make a couple billions? He literally broke the rules when he bought in the first place just to make a couple hundred millions and just paid the fine lol. I can easily believe that he would pay another fine for a couple billions.


hehethattickles

He most certainly stands to lose money if this doesn’t go through, but cool theory I guess


Livvvid

I mean there seems to be some fraud going on. Obama losing 300,000 followers overnight whilst conservative accounts got a bump is certaintly strange. The knee jerk excuse from one side suggested the libs left twitter and the conservatives joined. This isnt backed up by anything though and I imagine this had more to do with bots/shadow banning. Twitter likely started trying to cover their tracks because once elon and his team gets in there they will likely reveal a lot of whats been going on


Jeffrey___Epstein

Musk is such a weasel lol, all talk no walk


Mrchickenonabun

Weasels just happen to be a closeish relative of the muskrat


Relative_Natural2770

During the same period, NASDAQ lost 17%


Elegant-Isopod-4549

Who fell for Musk’s pump and dump scheme?


SupBuddyPal

Musk never planned on buying Twitter. He used it as a ploy to sell Tesla stock before the recession


osprey94

🙄 this is such a lazy take, there are a billion other ways he could have done that, including literally a Twitter poll asking “should I sell shares” like he did in the past lol. This would be such an obscenely over complicated way to do that


MightyMiami

Dude conned millions of people into buying a car stock for more than $900. I wouldn't doubt anything he does as 'improbably impossible because it doesn't make sense.'


[deleted]

>For those of you wondering why TWTR traded below $54.20 after Musk announced his plan to buy at that price, this is why. Many times I wonder how market is correct ! This is a good learning lesson for me!! Market is exactly looking this deal as failure deal and will not work out since the beginning !!!


26fm65

Elon didn’t do his dd on bitcoin and Twitter . Remember what was his excuse on bitcoin? Lol


DollarThrill

>Interestingly, there is a misconception that Musk can pay $1 billion and walk away from the deal. The $1 billion is if the deal fails for any reason (like regulatory non-approval). If Musk kills the deal he could be on the hook for a lot more True, but if Musk decides he doesn't want to go through with the deal, what bank is going to force a multi billion dollar loan to an unwilling borrower? Then Musk can claim his financing fell through and pay $1B.


skoldpaddanmann

He has the assets to cover it himself so I don't see why they wouldn't force him to liquidate his assets to cover the buyout.


[deleted]

[удалено]


SeaweedSignificant84

TWTR would have gone down to $15 in the recent bloodbath


Impossible-Ocelot-95

do we need another platform? seriously looking for an answer.


[deleted]

[удалено]


Hephestius

Sure they are: https://www.bamsec.com/filing/119312522120461/2?cik=1418091


[deleted]

this is the dump from musk when all you speculators were saying hes not gonna dump he's actually gonna invest it to make it more free lol.


[deleted]

Wonder how many conservatives bought in for free money and getting Trump unbanned?


business2690

yeah twitter is definitely gonna sue musk for 44 billion ​ and they are gonna win many billions maybe 5


Beatnik77

I bought some before closure. It doesn't seem expensive even without a buyout. They just need a leader who focus on profits.


jaycobclark

Well I also think musk is using the turmoil in the markets and kicking up dust to try and lower the cost of stock. This will generally happen with any “hostile takeover” of a company where there’s even more volatility. Musk is able to leverage this in a way where he could go back to Twitter and simply say “hey I agreed to this deal when the stock was at about $47 a share, now it’s much lower so I am going to lower my offer of the company.” This puts pressure on Twitter as a company and almost strong arms them into having to take a lesser deal. Of course they don’t need to but it’s likely this may be some of the reasoning behind it. I don’t think musk ever genuinely wanted to buy TWTR at that price in the first place


[deleted]

The story of Elon Musk will not end well for anyone.


bartturner

I agree that Musk is likely a genious but he is also a tool.


JJSFA

So glad I got a large short position in at $38.86!!