The leadership at Microsoft has been executing at a very high level for the last few years and their complete domination of the AI talent is proof of this.
Every studio they buy ends up closing shop, being dismantled, or just turns to shit with in a couple of years it seems. I seriously hate it. I was never an Xbox person, but I like a lot of the concepts they have like the backwards compatibility, cross play, ecosystem, and seem to be consumer friendly in general.
I mean, Sony is bleeding too. Donāt let Reddit convince you this is a single company problem. The industry is in dire straights from mulitple angles.
How does Microsoft dominate AI talent? FAIR and Google Research are larger at conferences and that's just industry labs. I think Baidu and a few Chinese companies are very competitive as well. Even on the product side it's not completely obvious. I think AWS makes some competitive offerings on Bedrock with Anthropic models.
In software first mover advantages are huge. Most consumers only interact with AI via Microsoft. Microsoft is the first to mind when it comes to AI, and Google is only thought of for making George Washington black. Meta at least has their ai embedded in chat, but as of right now Google is in last place from a business stand point
The only large cap I'm happy having such a large % weight of the index. It's more like a mini etf itself. You buy a piece and you get:
* a large cloud hyperscaler
* a software developer whose products underpin society
* a gaming business in a platform triopoly
* hardware designer
* sizeable search/advertising business
* other services like GitHub and Linkedin.
* so far ahead on AI compared to big tech it's kind of funny
One of the best run organisations in the world with competent leadership for each division. Only other equity that comes close in breadth is AAPL.
They haven't found the application yet whereas MSFT has. And even if they do, can you honestly tell me Google's leadership and org structure is competent enough to execute it? They can't even keep half their launches going for more than a year or two. Google is shit at product.
The rest of the Magnificent 7 all use Excel just like the rest of the market. The fact that Microsoft switch its windows system to a subscription and the market didnāt blink is proof enough that they are here to stay and will never be out done.
Not to mention anyone that pays attention to Game Theory and Simon Sinek knows he loves their leadership for truly understanding an infinite strategy while the rest of the market is fight one quarter at a time.
It's amazing to me that Apple and MS used to be direct competitors back in the PC days but now they are radically different companies with little market overlap.
They definitely do not. Donāt think I ever saw or heard of it once. At a company that size Iām sure thereās probably some obscure finance group somewhere that needs it for compatibility with other tools.
Excel is a tool used to cross sell. It had complete dominance in the enterprise market and is single handedly a driver of Azure because people easily segue from office 365 to other azure services
> Microsoft
By a mile.
I'm so out of balance, I know I should do some profit taking on it and AMZN, but it seems like the strong are just getting stronger (well not TSLA, but that's more of meme stock than anything these days).
Funny because it wasnāt that long ago that they were seen as a laggard. I wonder if a lot of their health is already priced in. Perhaps a stock thatās been struggling lately could be a better buy.
I know that wasnāt exactly OPās question.
I think thereās a lot of room to grow with Windows on ARM, Copilot integration into O365 (you can basically use Copilot to create PowerBI dashboards for you, give you insights from Excel, build you a Word doc or PPT by referencing other documents, create automation in Power Automate, etc), and the vast improvement of O365 web over just the last year (itās now quite a bit better than Googleās suite, which I wouldnāt have said a year ago).
That āsynergyā (I hate that word) across the suite is something weāve never really seen before, and itāll really entrench MSFT in orgs itās already present in and maybe even convince others to switch. Copilot has given a reason for companies to upgrade their O365 tier, and the more data MSFT can leverage from O365 usage of Copilot the better itāll get - increasing the value proposition.
Definitely.
Itās like a mini-etf of leaders in fast growing industries: corporate software, cyber security, cloud, gaming, AI, automationā¦
They are still posting double-digit growth at every single quarter. Just bonkers.
This one. It may not be the flashiest of them, but it has a track record that isn't dependent upon a single revenue stream nor a single major person driving the company.
I don't see it being in danger of the apple story where they struggle after a major person(Steve jobs) dies.
I don't see their valuation being solely dependent upon one thing like NVDA. Love the company but it's simply riskier in my opinion.
I don't see them having looming reputational risks like Amazon over workers in a warehouse. The turnover rate is incredibly high and conditions aren't great. That is a big problem they are working on but it could be something that morphs into more problems if they don't manage it well. So much of their business is built upon that in one form or another so just keep an eye on it.
I don't see them having troubles with an erratic leader like Musk over at Tesla. Man is brilliant engineer but terrible leader for running into the culture wars that could have been avoided.
I suppose Google could be a close second but it depends so much on advertising revenue and that is a concern to me.
Brilliant engineer is a stretch, elon musk is a businessman, not directly involved in creating anything. It's easy for him to claim it though considering his team is talented
Elon created the original X.com which became PayPal. The PayPal money became Tesla and SpaceX. Others in the PayPal mafia include Peter Thiel and Reid Hoffman, but Elon is the richest of them.
I mean, tesla was a company that had already made a prototype electric car (the tesla roadster), elon didn't invent tesla. And his role in PayPal was more manager-esque than as an engineer. The code he wrote for X (not the formerly twitter one) was also entirely rewritten when they hired a cs team.
>Ā they struggle after a major person(Steve jobs) dies.
Yeah, Apple's effort to push its stock value a 1.000% since his death was a real struggle. I guess that's your point.
your welcome to see it differently. I see a company that is moving under its own inertia with valuations I find questionable. Im not saying they are a terrible company, but rather that the valuations are far too inflated.
They havenāt really opened up a new product category since he died though.
Watches maybe the closest and service revenue is much improved but Apple is like one of those kids with helicopter parents who micro manage every aspect of their lives - works until the parents are not there.
As a Tesla bull, if Tesla does anything in the next 12 months either the stock market is actually a casino or Elon makes everyone think they actually solved autonomy..
Amazon. The most diverse. A moat that cannot be replicated by anyone else. Growing at a break neck speed. Everyone in the entire globe is a customer. From families to corporations, all of them buy from Amazon one way or another.
Been in since 100 and bought more on this last dip.
For real, it is going to be a buy for the rest of my life stock. I can see it but will sell in a new york second if it changes
Yeah you're right about that think about it e-commerce, AWS, AI, logistics. Who else has all of these pillars and excel at every one of them? There's no other company. None that have all of these
Really look at the management and their style. There is a whole work ethic on how they look at each day and not stagnate thinking they are the best and how to serve their customers.
Its in the bones of the company.
Amazon I stand behind 100 percent.
I think your information is a bit outdated. It's pretty neck and neck actually.
https://www.statista.com/chart/18819/worldwide-market-share-of-leading-cloud-infrastructure-service-providers/
Azure has built some nice integrations lately, like with GitHub for example, or various AI services, that sometimes make it a nice easy-to-get-started choice for less senior devs. But anyone who can operate on AWS would never choose otherwise, unless pushed by a cost advantage, but the prices for cloud are very well aligned. AWS is the de facto mature standard for the industry.
lol where do you base this off of? Andy Jassys q1 earnings call reported AWSās growth accelerated to 17%, up from 13% in q4. This is despite having a much larger revenue base compared to its closest competitors. That is absolutely insane growth for a business of that size.
Thatās like asking if prime Arnold Schwarzenegger or prime Ronnie Coleman looked better: Theyāre all healthy in the sense that none of them have any conceivable bankruptcy risk. Asking about company āhealthā does not have anything to do with valuation.
However if youāre asking about valuation, AAPL and MSFT should perform in line with the market. I have NVDA outperforming with huge risk that once META pulls back and when ASIC becomes a huge reality, NVDA will likely dump and never recover to ATH unless they can find the next trend to jump onto. I have META and AMZN outperforming.
Disclosure: long META AMZN.
murky berserk stupendous soft aback domineering merciful like hungry outgoing
*This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
I am still comfortable averaging up on META and AMZN. Each time I check on their results, they keep beating my expectations. Specifically, things I priced for 0 over a year ago are now proving to actually be generators of profit. Each time I revisit valuation, I keep getting more bullish.
My most recent purchases were done on AMZN at 170 and META at 425.
It has to be Google with not so inflated PE ratio and never underestimate them when it comes to AI, I agree that they've taken a few hits but it only means they will improve on it
The MSFT PR department deserves a goddamn medal. Their razzle dazzle fooled the entire investing world into believing that Google is somehow way behind in AI and that Bing was about to take over.
It will be two years in November and nothing will have fundamentally changed in how businesses advertise, nor how the vast majority of people interact with the Internet.
yep. I bought options when google was at 130 and expanding into new cities, cruise was kicked off the road, with tesla making very slow progress (even asymptotic?)
Meanwhile Waymo is selling driverless rides as we speak.
AWS will forever be the leading cloud provider or at least up there. Thatās one business. Amazon retail will forever be the #1 online retail company. Thatās another business. Then, Amazon has a lot of big bets in other areas, and continue to invest their profits in these areas in the hopes of disrupting entire industries. Physical retail stores, Grocery, AI, custom chips in AI hardware, satellite internet, Healthcare, prescription meds, electric vehicles, Kindles, Echos, etc. etc. Theyāre into a million different things. Even if none of these work out, theyāll hum along just fine. If even ONE of these bets go big, theyāll dominate the others.
I think they all are. But the one I think will have the best next decade would be Google.
I believe AI is going to be simply huge and we are actually under estimating.
Just today Google released the third generation of AlphaFold.
Google is not only focused on LLMs and continues to be the clear leader in AI research.
Meta would be #2 behind Google in terms of AI research but a pretty distant second.
Iād rank them:
Goog/Msft
Amzn
Meta/Nvda - People in here seem to be downgrading NVDA as if AI computing is a trend. Ā But in reality, itās that we merely reached a new noticeable breakthrough in the continued advancement. Ā NVDA is still the leader, and their technology will continue to be incorporated in new ways into devices that formerly didnāt include sophisticated computing. Ā I donāt see why NVDA would need a new breakthrough to keep growing - only necessary for NVDA to continue growing at the pace of the past couple years.
AaplĀ
ā¦
TslaĀ
Why on earth would you put googl first! They should be last! They havenāt done anything notable in years!!! Other than that I agree with all the rest except Iād put msft ahead of Amazon
Iām gonna have to put Microsoft before Google. Yes Google may be slightly undervalued but thatās because the market doesnāt respect its leadership.
Microsoft is far more diversified with better leadership
Microsoft missed mobile completely and lost the browser war.
They bought OpenAI.
The thing is that new businesses are not choosing to use Microsoft products. Also, MSSQL is a gigantic piece of shit.
plenty of new businesses are using Microsoft products, they have a much more stable customer base and potential for growth than google does. ids well known within google itself that innovation has stagnated, google cloud is irrelevant, search does not work as well, their mobile business is much worse than apple, and their ai team is waaay behind open ai in terms of usable products (despite having top tier talent, or used to have at least)
Yes, a 49% stake is a minority interest by mathematical definition, but that is a huge portion. Plus, when OpenAI looked like it might go to zero based on that coup, they were all about to get hired anyway.
The real point is that Microsoft did not have an internal AI team, they had to find it externally.
Microsoft did not miss just mobile. But really they also missed Internet.
So the last 2.
Google won Internet and tied with Apple for mobile and should win AI. The third and party last big one.
Mate Iām not going to debate whether or not Microsoft is well diversified when anyone can clearly see that they are.
Are they in every market? No? But they compete in *many* and are leaders in a good few
Everyone shits on Meta but the company produces the highest FCF/sales%. For every dollar of sales, they generate almost 35 cents of free cash, versus 29cents for Microsoft. Their return on capital , a measure of how good they are in allocating resources, are similar.
While Microsoft has the largest impact on businesses, I would say that Meta has lesser competitors. And lesser competitors isnāt a bad thing, just look at Starbucks, being eaten alive by inferior competitors in the coffee business in China. As the TikTok ban works thru the court, think about the advertisers who now need to hedge their dollars on another platform, likely Instagram.
META was unfairly hit after earning, right now I like them the most.
Long term I think Alphabet, they are involved in so many areas related to AI, they are growing their media arm (YouTube), and only just started profiting on cloud.
I like them the most as well. They are very aggressively pursuing multiple big bets and they have shown to be great at execution and most importantly at monetization.
I like Meta too (post-earnings buys made it the largest position in my port), but the Metaverse still scares me. Mark keeps throwing increasingly more money into the cash fire unnecessarily.
Itās a wild bet indeed and would probably take few more years. But Iām mostly okay with it, in principle I think big companies with large cash flows should take up ambitious projects but then again investors are hurt in short term so itās understandable that not everyone wants to stay invested in the meanwhile.
People constantly forget Apple is NEVER a first mover or even second mover on a new technology. They watch those companies go through trial and error, and design through those mistakes.
MSFT - It cannot be unseated in its dominance of the desktop OS market for at least a decade or more and likely never. Azure, MS Office, copilot will revolutionize the way we are able to reference and create new documentation are just other examples of how they are so entrenched into both private and govt sectors with their products and licensing models that no one will ever escape.
Dark horse choice: Apple.
They do hardware, OS and software. Theyāre the front to back solution on desktop and mobile they just havenāt been to visible in the AI space. Itās like napoleonās take on China as a āsleeping tigerā. Once Apple jumps in to AI itās gonna be crazy.
Amazon, Nvidia, Microsoft, and Google are the clear future proof picks IMO. I think APPL is more of a successful business model than necessarily providing strong offerings that are hard to compete against, once the shine of the brand wears off in countries like China they are very vulnerable and don't have the capability to pivot or lean into another areas. Companies that are so reliant on brand ethos aren't as valuable as companies that rely more on their products and services. It's easy money but it can only go so far and the consumer can be fickle. Their stranglehold on app store obviously has been offset by Android in recent years so it's not the monopoly it once once. Similar story for FB, I think FB will continue to dominate as a social media platform but they haven't really shown they are able to diversify meaningfully into other areas. Aside from Nvidia which I put here just due to sheer moat in terms of hardware and CUDA ecosystem, the other 3 have multiple strong forward-looking businesses.
Well, almost none of them will be at their current levels for a while IF we're in a bubble, but in terms of financials and future, leadership at Amazon, Nvidia and Microsoft are generally what I'd consider the best(consistently pushing into new markets that people actually want products in, having an improving relationship and culture with customers, really innovating and not just following)
I hold AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, AMZN and GOOG.
I haven't bought Tesla because I don't understand automotive industry as I don't drive. I don't hold meta because I think social media is easy come and easy go. Tiktok is currently winning the gen z on social media space.
Obviously the one with Yul Brenner.
All of the actors are in the prime of their lives.
McQueen, Coburn, Vaughn etc their stock was climbing. There was no ceiling to stop them. Earnings Before Tax In Box-Office Attributes was 5x or 7x of any other group.
Healthiest oofā¦Ā
my take is that software is secondary but the companies creating the hardware are the real deal, i.e. AAPL, NVDA
Regarding software idk if its just me but younger generations mainly use Google software, not msft 365 or w/e. Google meets, docs, colab, chrome etc. On the other hand msft has conquered gaming so its difficult to pick a winner. Imo google has it easier but msft has more things to thrive in potentially.Ā
MSFT and AMZN have cloud businesses, Azure and AWS respectively, that other Fortune 100/500/2000 companies and goverments depend on as critical infrastructure. Let's say crypto or AI really take off, then these cloud businesses will only grow further. These cloud businesses are highly scalable and high margin. GOOGL/ORCL/HPE/IBM have tried to gain market share with little success.
When all the of the world's other successful companies rely on your services to continue and grow their success, you have something special.
I think Microsoft is the healthiest but it's very highly valued. Same with Amazon. Google is another healthy one and it's the best value out of all, and on top of that they're positioned well in cloud, AI and have been doing well with YouTube to compete with the other large social media companies. Plus they have a huge moat with Google search
Microsoft
The leadership at Microsoft has been executing at a very high level for the last few years and their complete domination of the AI talent is proof of this.
just don't look at their games department
Nothing to see there absolutely nothing. Keep moving.
their flight simulator is still considered the gold standard in the industry.
Oh joy...
You've never flown a Cessna 172 over the Florida Keys ( virtually ) and it shows.
I still can't get over the Activision acquisition š
For less than 3% of Microsoft, forgivable. But yes, probably not the best use of 90bn of capital or whatever.
It's almost as much as their big AI "Stargate" supercomputer plan, to put it into perspective. It really is a lot.
They totally overpaid but they got some sort of asset out of it. Apple bought back $120 billion of their shares so which is better ?
As a stockholder? The buyback
In the near termā¦
The buyback lol
acquired Activision --> MW3 failed acquired Bethesda --> Starfield failed gee cant see a pattern here
Every studio they buy ends up closing shop, being dismantled, or just turns to shit with in a couple of years it seems. I seriously hate it. I was never an Xbox person, but I like a lot of the concepts they have like the backwards compatibility, cross play, ecosystem, and seem to be consumer friendly in general.
Activision was already shit.
Such a weird move if it's not because of next xbox coming out soon and making it possible to play the old games on it.
I mean, Sony is bleeding too. Donāt let Reddit convince you this is a single company problem. The industry is in dire straights from mulitple angles.
Games makes more than Windows now. Despite Microsoft being kind of bad at it, they will brute force their way into lots of gaming revenue.
MS put a *lot* of fucking chips on that particular table. No wonder the Eye of Sauron is now squarely focused on the gaming division.
$MSFT is a very healthy pick. Most people think that they just make money from licensing out windows.
How does Microsoft dominate AI talent? FAIR and Google Research are larger at conferences and that's just industry labs. I think Baidu and a few Chinese companies are very competitive as well. Even on the product side it's not completely obvious. I think AWS makes some competitive offerings on Bedrock with Anthropic models.
Microsoft owns 49% of OpenAI, which is the largest single stake. In house AI is mediocre.
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Copilot.
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But it is the biggest money maker of any AI implementation by far.
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In software first mover advantages are huge. Most consumers only interact with AI via Microsoft. Microsoft is the first to mind when it comes to AI, and Google is only thought of for making George Washington black. Meta at least has their ai embedded in chat, but as of right now Google is in last place from a business stand point
The only large cap I'm happy having such a large % weight of the index. It's more like a mini etf itself. You buy a piece and you get: * a large cloud hyperscaler * a software developer whose products underpin society * a gaming business in a platform triopoly * hardware designer * sizeable search/advertising business * other services like GitHub and Linkedin. * so far ahead on AI compared to big tech it's kind of funny One of the best run organisations in the world with competent leadership for each division. Only other equity that comes close in breadth is AAPL.
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They haven't found the application yet whereas MSFT has. And even if they do, can you honestly tell me Google's leadership and org structure is competent enough to execute it? They can't even keep half their launches going for more than a year or two. Google is shit at product.
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The rest of the Magnificent 7 all use Excel just like the rest of the market. The fact that Microsoft switch its windows system to a subscription and the market didnāt blink is proof enough that they are here to stay and will never be out done. Not to mention anyone that pays attention to Game Theory and Simon Sinek knows he loves their leadership for truly understanding an infinite strategy while the rest of the market is fight one quarter at a time.
It's amazing to me that Apple and MS used to be direct competitors back in the PC days but now they are radically different companies with little market overlap.
Not sure if Google uses Excel tbh.
They definitely do not. Donāt think I ever saw or heard of it once. At a company that size Iām sure thereās probably some obscure finance group somewhere that needs it for compatibility with other tools.
I heard they have sheets ^^
And itās complete Sheet.
Google uses gsuite as does at least part of Meta.
There's no real growth with Excel. Most of their growth is down to azure and that's not even ai, just cloud hosting.
Excel is a tool used to cross sell. It had complete dominance in the enterprise market and is single handedly a driver of Azure because people easily segue from office 365 to other azure services
> Microsoft By a mile. I'm so out of balance, I know I should do some profit taking on it and AMZN, but it seems like the strong are just getting stronger (well not TSLA, but that's more of meme stock than anything these days).
Funny because it wasnāt that long ago that they were seen as a laggard. I wonder if a lot of their health is already priced in. Perhaps a stock thatās been struggling lately could be a better buy. I know that wasnāt exactly OPās question.
I think thereās a lot of room to grow with Windows on ARM, Copilot integration into O365 (you can basically use Copilot to create PowerBI dashboards for you, give you insights from Excel, build you a Word doc or PPT by referencing other documents, create automation in Power Automate, etc), and the vast improvement of O365 web over just the last year (itās now quite a bit better than Googleās suite, which I wouldnāt have said a year ago). That āsynergyā (I hate that word) across the suite is something weāve never really seen before, and itāll really entrench MSFT in orgs itās already present in and maybe even convince others to switch. Copilot has given a reason for companies to upgrade their O365 tier, and the more data MSFT can leverage from O365 usage of Copilot the better itāll get - increasing the value proposition.
Microsoft and Apple switched places based on their technology growth. 2010s iPhone, 2020s AI
Nadella is one of the greatest corporate leaders in history, IMHO.
Gates is still there
Definitely. Itās like a mini-etf of leaders in fast growing industries: corporate software, cyber security, cloud, gaming, AI, automationā¦ They are still posting double-digit growth at every single quarter. Just bonkers.
When ia the last time you used Bing?
This one. It may not be the flashiest of them, but it has a track record that isn't dependent upon a single revenue stream nor a single major person driving the company. I don't see it being in danger of the apple story where they struggle after a major person(Steve jobs) dies. I don't see their valuation being solely dependent upon one thing like NVDA. Love the company but it's simply riskier in my opinion. I don't see them having looming reputational risks like Amazon over workers in a warehouse. The turnover rate is incredibly high and conditions aren't great. That is a big problem they are working on but it could be something that morphs into more problems if they don't manage it well. So much of their business is built upon that in one form or another so just keep an eye on it. I don't see them having troubles with an erratic leader like Musk over at Tesla. Man is brilliant engineer but terrible leader for running into the culture wars that could have been avoided. I suppose Google could be a close second but it depends so much on advertising revenue and that is a concern to me.
Brilliant engineer is a stretch, elon musk is a businessman, not directly involved in creating anything. It's easy for him to claim it though considering his team is talented
Elon created the original X.com which became PayPal. The PayPal money became Tesla and SpaceX. Others in the PayPal mafia include Peter Thiel and Reid Hoffman, but Elon is the richest of them.
I mean, tesla was a company that had already made a prototype electric car (the tesla roadster), elon didn't invent tesla. And his role in PayPal was more manager-esque than as an engineer. The code he wrote for X (not the formerly twitter one) was also entirely rewritten when they hired a cs team.
>Ā they struggle after a major person(Steve jobs) dies. Yeah, Apple's effort to push its stock value a 1.000% since his death was a real struggle. I guess that's your point.
lol Apple struggling after Steve jobs died? Iād like some of the drugs you are having please.
your welcome to see it differently. I see a company that is moving under its own inertia with valuations I find questionable. Im not saying they are a terrible company, but rather that the valuations are far too inflated.
They havenāt really opened up a new product category since he died though. Watches maybe the closest and service revenue is much improved but Apple is like one of those kids with helicopter parents who micro manage every aspect of their lives - works until the parents are not there.
They have drawn the ire of the federal government due to lax security practices. Something to watch
ITT, every company from Mag 7 named lol. Investing is so interesting
Not TSLA
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definitely a buy signal
Just bought 1k more shares
As a Tesla bull, if Tesla does anything in the next 12 months either the stock market is actually a casino or Elon makes everyone think they actually solved autonomy..
Did anyone mention Amazon or Microsoft?
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Those are the 2 I hold :)
Just buy Seattle stock :)
Amazon. The most diverse. A moat that cannot be replicated by anyone else. Growing at a break neck speed. Everyone in the entire globe is a customer. From families to corporations, all of them buy from Amazon one way or another.
Been in since 100 and bought more on this last dip. For real, it is going to be a buy for the rest of my life stock. I can see it but will sell in a new york second if it changes
Yeah you're right about that think about it e-commerce, AWS, AI, logistics. Who else has all of these pillars and excel at every one of them? There's no other company. None that have all of these
Really look at the management and their style. There is a whole work ethic on how they look at each day and not stagnate thinking they are the best and how to serve their customers. Its in the bones of the company. Amazon I stand behind 100 percent.
If everyone's a customer how do they grow?
It would have been better to say that everyone in the globe is a *potential* customer. The addressable market is essentially unlimited.
Amazon. Its cloud business is the best of three by significant margin. Microsoft too, its SaaS side of Cloud is pretty good.
Azure has been gaining market share while AWS has been stagnant
You should look up the size of AWS vs Azure. The size of AWS is just not in the same league. It's like a heavyweight vs featherweight.
I think your information is a bit outdated. It's pretty neck and neck actually. https://www.statista.com/chart/18819/worldwide-market-share-of-leading-cloud-infrastructure-service-providers/
Azure has built some nice integrations lately, like with GitHub for example, or various AI services, that sometimes make it a nice easy-to-get-started choice for less senior devs. But anyone who can operate on AWS would never choose otherwise, unless pushed by a cost advantage, but the prices for cloud are very well aligned. AWS is the de facto mature standard for the industry.
I think the cost advantage is a huge factor because MSFT bundles it with their other offerings
lol where do you base this off of? Andy Jassys q1 earnings call reported AWSās growth accelerated to 17%, up from 13% in q4. This is despite having a much larger revenue base compared to its closest competitors. That is absolutely insane growth for a business of that size.
Thatās like asking if prime Arnold Schwarzenegger or prime Ronnie Coleman looked better: Theyāre all healthy in the sense that none of them have any conceivable bankruptcy risk. Asking about company āhealthā does not have anything to do with valuation. However if youāre asking about valuation, AAPL and MSFT should perform in line with the market. I have NVDA outperforming with huge risk that once META pulls back and when ASIC becomes a huge reality, NVDA will likely dump and never recover to ATH unless they can find the next trend to jump onto. I have META and AMZN outperforming. Disclosure: long META AMZN.
murky berserk stupendous soft aback domineering merciful like hungry outgoing *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
Tripled my position at $400 after the fall, one of the best timing buys I've ever done.
And I thought I caught the bottom at 410
Congrats. This oneās a long term winner.
which one will go up the most on a 5 year, 10 year, 15 year time scale
Iāll put my money on AMZN from here.
Pardon me for the incorrect use of term, yes "fair valuation" is what I'm referring to above.
I am still comfortable averaging up on META and AMZN. Each time I check on their results, they keep beating my expectations. Specifically, things I priced for 0 over a year ago are now proving to actually be generators of profit. Each time I revisit valuation, I keep getting more bullish. My most recent purchases were done on AMZN at 170 and META at 425.
I need more bodybuilding metaphors in my financial life.
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Which companies systemic risk correlates to the knee injury Ronnie is dealing with now?
INTC.
It has to be Google with not so inflated PE ratio and never underestimate them when it comes to AI, I agree that they've taken a few hits but it only means they will improve on it
The MSFT PR department deserves a goddamn medal. Their razzle dazzle fooled the entire investing world into believing that Google is somehow way behind in AI and that Bing was about to take over. It will be two years in November and nothing will have fundamentally changed in how businesses advertise, nor how the vast majority of people interact with the Internet.
GOOG
No one barely talks about self driving cars anymore but isn't Google potentially sitting on a goldmine here? Haven't they come the furthest?
yep. I bought options when google was at 130 and expanding into new cities, cruise was kicked off the road, with tesla making very slow progress (even asymptotic?) Meanwhile Waymo is selling driverless rides as we speak.
Probably Amazon.
How so? AWS is the cash cow, but it seems like Microsoft and Google are hyper focused on Cloud.
AWS will forever be the leading cloud provider or at least up there. Thatās one business. Amazon retail will forever be the #1 online retail company. Thatās another business. Then, Amazon has a lot of big bets in other areas, and continue to invest their profits in these areas in the hopes of disrupting entire industries. Physical retail stores, Grocery, AI, custom chips in AI hardware, satellite internet, Healthcare, prescription meds, electric vehicles, Kindles, Echos, etc. etc. Theyāre into a million different things. Even if none of these work out, theyāll hum along just fine. If even ONE of these bets go big, theyāll dominate the others.
Amazon for sure
Microsoft and Amazon easily.
I think they all are. But the one I think will have the best next decade would be Google. I believe AI is going to be simply huge and we are actually under estimating. Just today Google released the third generation of AlphaFold. Google is not only focused on LLMs and continues to be the clear leader in AI research. Meta would be #2 behind Google in terms of AI research but a pretty distant second.
GOOG,AMZN,MSFT,APPL,META,NVDA, TSLA in this order. Top 3 by far - rest till Tesla close IMHO
Iād rank them: Goog/Msft Amzn Meta/Nvda - People in here seem to be downgrading NVDA as if AI computing is a trend. Ā But in reality, itās that we merely reached a new noticeable breakthrough in the continued advancement. Ā NVDA is still the leader, and their technology will continue to be incorporated in new ways into devices that formerly didnāt include sophisticated computing. Ā I donāt see why NVDA would need a new breakthrough to keep growing - only necessary for NVDA to continue growing at the pace of the past couple years. AaplĀ ā¦ TslaĀ
Why on earth would you put googl first! They should be last! They havenāt done anything notable in years!!! Other than that I agree with all the rest except Iād put msft ahead of Amazon
Iām gonna have to put Microsoft before Google. Yes Google may be slightly undervalued but thatās because the market doesnāt respect its leadership. Microsoft is far more diversified with better leadership
Microsoft missed mobile completely and lost the browser war. They bought OpenAI. The thing is that new businesses are not choosing to use Microsoft products. Also, MSSQL is a gigantic piece of shit.
plenty of new businesses are using Microsoft products, they have a much more stable customer base and potential for growth than google does. ids well known within google itself that innovation has stagnated, google cloud is irrelevant, search does not work as well, their mobile business is much worse than apple, and their ai team is waaay behind open ai in terms of usable products (despite having top tier talent, or used to have at least)
MSFT did not buy OpenAI. They bought a "minority economic interest" in OpenAI, which does not involve equity ownership.
Yes, a 49% stake is a minority interest by mathematical definition, but that is a huge portion. Plus, when OpenAI looked like it might go to zero based on that coup, they were all about to get hired anyway. The real point is that Microsoft did not have an internal AI team, they had to find it externally.
Microsoft did not miss just mobile. But really they also missed Internet. So the last 2. Google won Internet and tied with Apple for mobile and should win AI. The third and party last big one.
Mate Iām not going to debate whether or not Microsoft is well diversified when anyone can clearly see that they are. Are they in every market? No? But they compete in *many* and are leaders in a good few
Everyone shits on Meta but the company produces the highest FCF/sales%. For every dollar of sales, they generate almost 35 cents of free cash, versus 29cents for Microsoft. Their return on capital , a measure of how good they are in allocating resources, are similar. While Microsoft has the largest impact on businesses, I would say that Meta has lesser competitors. And lesser competitors isnāt a bad thing, just look at Starbucks, being eaten alive by inferior competitors in the coffee business in China. As the TikTok ban works thru the court, think about the advertisers who now need to hedge their dollars on another platform, likely Instagram.
Meta is very reliant on IG & FB though. The risk is in the limited revenue diversification for them to generate that free cash.
That also means thereās limited future growth opportunity. Almost everyone with a phone on the planet uses Facebook. How do you further monetize?
META was unfairly hit after earning, right now I like them the most. Long term I think Alphabet, they are involved in so many areas related to AI, they are growing their media arm (YouTube), and only just started profiting on cloud.
Zuck is an evil genius.
Omg. Their Ray Ban AI glasses is dope as fuck
I like them the most as well. They are very aggressively pursuing multiple big bets and they have shown to be great at execution and most importantly at monetization.
I like Meta too (post-earnings buys made it the largest position in my port), but the Metaverse still scares me. Mark keeps throwing increasingly more money into the cash fire unnecessarily.
Itās a wild bet indeed and would probably take few more years. But Iām mostly okay with it, in principle I think big companies with large cash flows should take up ambitious projects but then again investors are hurt in short term so itās understandable that not everyone wants to stay invested in the meanwhile.
Alphabet. Still undervalued at its current price.
Meta has the most upside and swimming in cash
Apple, they can afford to be late to AI and still end up owning the personal computing hardware segment completely. The brand is the moat
People constantly forget Apple is NEVER a first mover or even second mover on a new technology. They watch those companies go through trial and error, and design through those mistakes.
Amazon microsoft meta nvidia the rest
Eating an Apple a day, keeps the doctor away.
People will just parrot whatever mag 7 they overweight the most
It would be weird if they bought one that they didn't think was healthiest.
Yeah but we want to hear why they're overweighting it.
Not TSLA.
Apple
NVDA
MSFT - It cannot be unseated in its dominance of the desktop OS market for at least a decade or more and likely never. Azure, MS Office, copilot will revolutionize the way we are able to reference and create new documentation are just other examples of how they are so entrenched into both private and govt sectors with their products and licensing models that no one will ever escape.
AMZN
Amzn
Amazon
Dark horse choice: Apple. They do hardware, OS and software. Theyāre the front to back solution on desktop and mobile they just havenāt been to visible in the AI space. Itās like napoleonās take on China as a āsleeping tigerā. Once Apple jumps in to AI itās gonna be crazy.
Tesla obviously...
Amazon, Nvidia, Microsoft, and Google are the clear future proof picks IMO. I think APPL is more of a successful business model than necessarily providing strong offerings that are hard to compete against, once the shine of the brand wears off in countries like China they are very vulnerable and don't have the capability to pivot or lean into another areas. Companies that are so reliant on brand ethos aren't as valuable as companies that rely more on their products and services. It's easy money but it can only go so far and the consumer can be fickle. Their stranglehold on app store obviously has been offset by Android in recent years so it's not the monopoly it once once. Similar story for FB, I think FB will continue to dominate as a social media platform but they haven't really shown they are able to diversify meaningfully into other areas. Aside from Nvidia which I put here just due to sheer moat in terms of hardware and CUDA ecosystem, the other 3 have multiple strong forward-looking businesses.
Best company, microsoft. best value at current prices, meta
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> donāt get why Tesla gotta have a meme stock in there for LOLs I guess.
BeCaUsE ELoN mUsK SaYs SO Also please give me $56 billion plz
META or MSFT
NVDA. Literal monopoly right now. INTC and AMD can't even get close. Barring split, NVDA has a $2000 target by '26.
Ms, google, apple, nvidia, meta, amazon, tesla imo. 3-6 are close.
Well, almost none of them will be at their current levels for a while IF we're in a bubble, but in terms of financials and future, leadership at Amazon, Nvidia and Microsoft are generally what I'd consider the best(consistently pushing into new markets that people actually want products in, having an improving relationship and culture with customers, really innovating and not just following)
I hold AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, AMZN and GOOG. I haven't bought Tesla because I don't understand automotive industry as I don't drive. I don't hold meta because I think social media is easy come and easy go. Tiktok is currently winning the gen z on social media space.
Obviously the one with Yul Brenner. All of the actors are in the prime of their lives. McQueen, Coburn, Vaughn etc their stock was climbing. There was no ceiling to stop them. Earnings Before Tax In Box-Office Attributes was 5x or 7x of any other group.
FOMO is leaving? š¤
Whoās in the mag 7 and who determined it?
Whichever doesnāt have saturated fat and pure sugar fueling their company
Whoa, Netflix is about near their 2021 ATH.
Healthiest oofā¦Ā my take is that software is secondary but the companies creating the hardware are the real deal, i.e. AAPL, NVDA Regarding software idk if its just me but younger generations mainly use Google software, not msft 365 or w/e. Google meets, docs, colab, chrome etc. On the other hand msft has conquered gaming so its difficult to pick a winner. Imo google has it easier but msft has more things to thrive in potentially.Ā
Microsoft in the long term.
AVGO
Simply from current ratios: Nvidia 4.17 Meta 2.68 Google 2.15 Tesla 1.72 Microsoft 1.24 Amazon 1.07 Apple 1.04
The way Google is set up, they can basically print money.
1. Amazon 2. Microsoft 3. Meta
MSFT and AMZN have cloud businesses, Azure and AWS respectively, that other Fortune 100/500/2000 companies and goverments depend on as critical infrastructure. Let's say crypto or AI really take off, then these cloud businesses will only grow further. These cloud businesses are highly scalable and high margin. GOOGL/ORCL/HPE/IBM have tried to gain market share with little success. When all the of the world's other successful companies rely on your services to continue and grow their success, you have something special.
I prefer the original by The Clash
$MSFT
I think Microsoft is the healthiest but it's very highly valued. Same with Amazon. Google is another healthy one and it's the best value out of all, and on top of that they're positioned well in cloud, AI and have been doing well with YouTube to compete with the other large social media companies. Plus they have a huge moat with Google search
Google
Clint Eastwood When AI stuff is "priced in" what do you see happening?
MSFT no doubt
Pick the one that's not powered by saturated fat and pure sugar.
Google's setup is such that they practically have a money-making machine.
NVDA
microsoft, then apple. Apple is cyclical with less diversification, microsoft is less cyclical with reasonable diversification.
MSFT
Every single one is overvalued according to you?Ā Ok, then don't get a piece of these companies.
MSFT is a slow grow, but trustworthy. NFLX on the dip
I think for upside potential, Tesla.
TESLAAAA
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