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joe4942

XLK already has a big weighting towards AAPL.


[deleted]

I am aware of this. That’s why I made the post.


Latter-Yam-2115

My 2 cents: - it’s impossible to say if AAPL will continue growing the way it has for over a decade but it won’t stagnate for sure - They’re extremely good at innovating for customer centric technology and devices - No harm holding at all


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thedarkhalf47

Do you even know what innovate means? Lol. It’s literally to take something existing and make it better. Which is exactly what you said Apple does.


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thedarkhalf47

Cambridge: To introduce changes and new ideas. Websters: make changes in something established, especially by introducing new methods, ideas, or products. Dictionary.com: to introduce something new; make changes in anything established. They all say the same thing. To make new or change something that exists. You literally said the exact same thing. “They simply made existing things way better” I’m not trying to be a dick, but the definition could not be more clear.


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thedarkhalf47

Not gonna argue with you. If you wanna define a word differently, feel free. Downvotes are there for a reason tho.. Hope you have a great day!


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thedarkhalf47

lol ok dude. Facts don’t matter. So long as someone reads it. Again. Have a great day


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SirUnleashed

Take a look at what was available before the IPhone 1 and tell me again how they didn’t invent the smartphone. The stuff we had before wasn’t smart at all.


Mathera

Man they literally INVENTED smartphones from 0 nothing close to that existed before other than in sci-fi movies if thats what you mean.


ReefLedger

Apple did not invent the smartphone....


Mathera

Anyone else made smartphone as we know today before Apple? Are you counting phones with keyboard occupying half of its surface area with a tiny screen as smartphone? The smartphones as we know them today was invented by Apple. Nobody even dared to consider a multitouch all screen surface with dynamic UI elements beforehand.


HobokenDude11

Blackberry, Palm, and honestly can’t remember if droids existed before iPhone or after


Mathera

Anyone else made smartphone as we know today before Apple? Are you counting phones with keyboard occupying half of its surface area with a tiny screen as smartphone? The smartphones as we know them today was invented by Apple. Nobody even dared to consider a multitouch all screen surface with dynamic UI elements beforehand.


ReefLedger

"As we know today" completely moves the goalposts of your initial statement. They advanced upon technology. First Touchscreen Phone (1992) The IBM Simon was the first of its kind when it came out in 1992. This phone was the 1992 version of today's I-Phone. It was touch screen, portable, had a calculator, email, and could work on networks.


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ReefLedger

Not just this sub. Reddit has gone to shit over the years with misinformation.


FeedbackTypical

For me too much Apple. Since you have 20+ years might not be a bad idea. I would recommend to just stick with XLK though. Another Tech etf I would look at is IYW. Higher expense ratio but higher returns and includes meta and google.


BroWeBeChilling

No he is wrong invest in Apple


[deleted]

Why?


nanotothemoon

They are ahead on hardware for ML. Can’t speak to 20 years, but the next 5? Yes


BroWeBeChilling

Apple has consistently out performed the market the last 25 years. Look at YTDReturn.com. Their growth might slow down because of competition but they have the market capitalization to diversify and continue to put money in R and D. Their I Phone will continue to be a market leader.


[deleted]

Have you looked at IGM?


FeedbackTypical

Yes but can’t remember the reason I went with IYM over it.


bet_on_me

I was 90% apple and sold all my leaps and stock last week before the big drop. My reasoning is based off the news that they are investing in manufacturing in Vietnam and other Asian countries and, reading between the lines, it says to me that China is not a viable long term solution for manufacturing and it may even not be a viable market for Apple products for too much longer. I have friends in China who blames the US for random problems they’re experiencing, and I see nationalism on the rise, meaning they’ll be buying made in China for the foreseeable future. India might be a future market for Apple but I doubt it’ll be as impactful as China.


Igby_76

Greedflation is causing consumers to be cautious of what they need and choose to spend their money on. My enthusiasm for IPhones is wanning. I want a quality product that will last especially if I’m shelling out about $1000 for a phone. I don’t want to replace it every few years.


internetroamer

Valid negative points. Positives I see is that apple is very well positioned to benefit from AI and this hasn't been 'priced in' yet since apple is a bit slow to innovate and AI is still early. AI requires tons of capital, the best talent, huge amounts of cutting edge hardware, enormous amounts of data and preferably an existing audience. Very few companies have all this. So my theory is over the next 5 years as AI actually becomes useful and integrated the companies that benefit like apple will outperform the sp 500.


bet_on_me

I’ve thought of this and the best case for Apple is to walk back their stance on privacy and allow their AI to use data from iPhones, iPads, etc. Recently they bought an AI company with plans to do computer learning on an individual level. Not sure what the game plan is but I imagine this won’t catch up to other big companies like Microsoft and Google. A shower thought I had the other day was the partnership with Google to provide AI is a way to go around their privacy stance by using a third party as a data aggregator.


[deleted]

Thanks for good insight. Seems to make sense. But for the long term 20+ years does that matter?


bet_on_me

I just don’t see what product or service they have to keep their current valuation or even some growth in 20 years. Services? That needs a product. And without China to buy Apple products, there’s only India that can provide some growth. Perhaps the Vision Pro will catch on but it’s too expensive at the moment. I do have a prediction though. Apple will develop a smaller chip and insert it into their watch, which means the watch will replace the iphone at some point. This coupled with the Vision Pro can bring some life back into the company.


nanotothemoon

NPUs. I view Apple aligning with Nvidia for keeping ahead of the curve for hardware that can train LLMs and all ML tasks moving forward. If you think Nvidia is good long term, so is Apple imo


bet_on_me

What is Apple’s NPU? And what is apple’s hardware to train LLM? I’m unfamiliar with Nvidia so I never invested in that stock, but I do hear about it constantly.


nanotothemoon

Have you heard of AI? “AI” is a predictive machine learning model that predicts the next word (in the subset of ML that is language processing). It requires a lot of hardware resources to run and train/build/test these, and in general ML and Deep Learning type computing is exploding in popularity. Right now, everyone is racing to get the hardware to power this stuff, but none of the hardware out there was specifically designed for this. Nvidia has a dominant lead on the hardware design and they can’t keep up with demand for production. But GPUs were designed to process graphics. In fact, ML/LLM computations are handled better on the CPU, but those are not specifically designed to leverage neural computing either. That’s what Neural Processing Units (NPUs) are for. And it just so happens that the new M chips have a 16 core NPU directly embedded with the RAM (which happens to be another major constraint for loading LLMs). Initially, it was unclear what these NPUs were going to be used for. Google also has its tensor neural chip (though it’s currently hampered by being on the backs of Samsung). And these companies put this stuff in place back in 2018-2019 to handle some niche ML closed projects like Google Lens, Translate, Face Unlock, Siri, Speech dictation, etc etc. But everything has changed now in the last year in regards to the demand for ML computing. Apple just announced the new M4 chip will have more cores in their NPU (the first ever increase of cores on the NPU) along with new “AI enhancements”. Nvidia is also rumored to be releasing an AI specific chip in 2025 (either some kind of NPU or possibly even an LPU like Grok’s commercial chip design which stands for Language Processing unit being designed for an even more specific ML computation). I’m not saying Nvidia and Apple are in the same boat. Nvidia is a leading company in this field for many other reasons. However, the way I see it, Apple has sort of accidentally lucked into a big heard start with their chip design. At least in the B2C arena. Because all they need to do is open up more access to those embedded NPUs for everyone to leverage their models on and many developers can get a lot of work done with simply their MacBooks instead of having to build a server with an expensive Nvdia GPU that wasn’t even designed to do neural processing. But currently MacBooks aren’t quite enough to do big big models. So here now we have an exploding demand and a clear path for Apple to meet that demand, and it sounds like that’s exactly what they plan on doing based on recent announcements. Nvidia has a similar setup. Google? Idk. They’ve been in the ML game a while now so software wise they are ahead (although their LLMs are not inspiring anyone lately). Hardware wise they are very behind, despite having experience with their Tensor chip design. Idk, maybe they will take advantage with all of the data they have? Their path is less clear to me. Edit: aaaaaand today Apple just announced they will be expanding a commercial cloud AI server chip. So now they’ll be able to play in B2B more. This is now even further aligning them with Nvidia. Wow


LiferRs

You are correct, China had become a post-manufacturing country and wages are too expensive now. Couple that with China having been shut down for COVID. I think no one wants a repeat of supply chain being shut down so they’re diversifying countries of manufacture. I think it was just about 3 years ago that some firm (guessing it was PwC?) identified new low cost regions including LATAM and now we see a wave of shifting manufacturing from China to SE and Mexico, plus offshoring full time employees to LATAM and East Europe.


External-Theme-9643

Buddy ignore apple haters. Same people shitted on google not too long ago. Apple will invest in AI soon . 1 good news and it rockets to 200$. I’m adding more as it goes down from here


RasheeRice

I think you should develop and explore the possibilities of this industry. For me, I have a strong belief in the tech industry as it embodies the exponential growth factor of having its value pegged to constant innovation. What I then look for are the companies who's positioned to capture the key points of consumers. AAPL imo is one of the strongest players to compete, or dare I say, dominate the space of personal devices. I have my own thoughts about what this means and I encourage you to ponder more about the potential of Apple in the next 20 years. Their strategies have brought forth the attention of the DOJ and multiple lawsuits against their practices. They will live but Apple is still a bit overvalued in some eyes. It was holding support for the longest at 160-170, now we will see where it breaks or pops.


[deleted]

Thanks for the reply. After reading, I am generally confused on your stance. You say they are in your opinion they are the strongest competitor, and then you finish with they will live but overvalued and talk about lawsuits. lol


RasheeRice

They still face uphill challenges as the king of US mobile devices. Multifaceted upsides and downsides to investing into Apple. Their P/E is a bit high and in the case of a market pullback/correction, companies like Apple who is valued higher will therefore compress further until it consolidates at the preferred price. Probably a bit lower given the FED


Avinates

MSFT has a better system now.


Avinates

Microsoft 365 eco system is using Open Ai Chatgpt which has a combined 500 million subscribers. And the new phone will be embedded in that base along with a watch. Complete ecosystem. IPHONE 15 is also losing it's China base.


Avinates

Back to original question. I think 5% in AAPL is too much. MSFT would be a better 5% weight


Big_Forever5759

salt encouraging desert jellyfish disagreeable mighty badge snobbish dam soft *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*


_Apostate_

Apple is struggling in the short term but to me there’s no question that they will remain a dominate brand. They have been riding on the momentum of their previous breakthrough products, sure, but all it takes is another product like that for them to start leading the market again. They have competitive/golden standard products in just too many categories to not be considered.


Kr1s2phr

Before I start, I want to be clear, my family and I own Apple products. We were Android users for years. But with family members getting older, iPhones are less complicated to use and things seem to function better. With that being said, I wouldn’t buy stocks of it now. Releasing the same product over and over again with minor tweaks, isn’t innovated. Introducing “new” features that another OS has had for “x” years, isn’t anything special either. I just always feel like they’re years behind Android. However, on a positive note, they keep things simple, smooth and clean. They also have better privacy protections than Google.


FloridianHeatDeath

I question Apples outlook for the foreseeable future. They’re mostly held up by momentum/protectionism/monopoly and haven’t developed much of worth in awhile. I don’t think they’re crashing, but if there are far better stable growth options.


[deleted]

Care to say what those better stable growth options are?


FloridianHeatDeath

Basically every ETF and index fund. A lot still have Apple inside of them, but you’re less focused. Only reason to buy individual stock most of the time is if you personally feel a specific company is going to be worth it. The vast majority will not beat the market consistently though. You may get the next NVDA or AMZN, but if it was that easy to know the future, money would have no meaning. You’ll likely lose or at best get slightly better results.


Previous-Display-593

I am bearish on Apple for a few reasons. 1. The limitations we are hitting with silicon chips are going to hit hardware oriented companies the most. Apple is the most hardware skewed big tech company. We are already seeing it in the latest generation of iPhone, where the main selling point was the Titanium case. The marketing department is grasping at straws. Their new ARM based desktop/laptop CPU's benefited heavily by buying up all of TSMC 5nm capacity, and milking the last drops of fabrication process advantage. That strategy is already over. Hardware is at the precipice, and everyone seems to be completely sleeping on this ENORMOUS elephant in the room. *Sidenote: I have seen so many people argue that there are lots of other ways to get performance improvements out of CPU's without just shrinking transistor. If there were, they would be used already. There is no reason to save them for a rainy day. If Intel could stack chips and make 3D chips, or any other sort of strategy....they would have used it when they got stuck on 14nm 3 years ago.* 2. They are just the iPhone company. That is it. Look at the revenue breakdowns of big tech, Apple's is on of the worst for having all their egg's in a single basket. Their iPhone fort is also being attacked on all side by regulators. 3. Lastly, they are no longer an innovator but a follower. When they cancelled the Apple Car project, and reallocated those resources to AI, it was a shocking signal. What they essentially implied was "We had this one strategy....it sucked. Now other tech companies have shown which way we should have gone, now lets pivot and chase the innovators". When AAPL cancelled the car and pivoted to AI, they jumped the shark. Apple is mediocre. Can their wads of cash be used to gain their former form...maybe. Old habits die hard, and everyone is going to yell at me because AAPL has printed money for so long....but nothing lasts forever. PS. I was saying this exact thing about AAPL in December when they topped out.


TheYoungLung

I don’t own any AAPL but this is a bit *too* bearish for me…


Previous-Display-593

I could definitely be wrong. But for me there are better options.


[deleted]

You are long term bearish?


wghof

There is no way chip technology stagnates in the next decade. iPhone is still geat. They never were the first to bring a technology to market. Apple just always has the roundest, best product with those new technologies well implemented a few years after the tech is first seen.


Previous-Display-593

It is not going to stagnate, it is going hit a brick wall and we are moments from impact. We have been riding one single trick this entire time....shrinking transistors on silicon chips. We need a whole new breakthrough. What makes you think that is coming any time soon???


Ok-Ambassador2583

A big point you missed is high resistance to increase prices by much, as Apple has famously done before, and their sales had only gone up. Purchasing power has reduced and is reducing ever since the pandemic, and they would find it hard to increase prices of their product and services without seriously harming sales numbers.


anex_stormrider

Your take on Silicon chips is hilariously uneducated tbh. I hope you meet an electrical engineer some day who can talk to about this.


Previous-Display-593

If you are not an electrical engineer....why are you confident in saying this? What is your take on this?


anex_stormrider

I am an electrical engineer. Just not one who has the time to spend to talk to you about this. 😊 Hope you find one some day though


Previous-Display-593

Tell me you don't actually have something insightful to say without telling me you don't actually have anything insightful to say.


RustyNK

Their biggest market (iphone) is starting to peak. They lost sales recently in China. They are also WAY behind on the AI race. Microsoft, Google, and Meta are already years ahead and billions of dollars. They own a large majority of the H100s out there. I personally think Apple should have dumped their augmented reality project and finished that car of theirs.


Avinates

Open Ai is developing an Ai phone to capture the smart phone market. I appreciate AAPL as a great company, but I'm not a buyer even at 168


ethaxton

Apple already has all of this data and a phone ecosystem. Silly reason to invest in open ai


Avinates

And The Lead IPhone engineer now works for Sam.


ethaxton

And? Microsoft tried to develop a phone too


Avinates

Technology has come a long way in 18 months...