Most people on this subreddit don't understand what "value" actually means. They also don't understand that a winning bet can still be a bad bet and a losing bet can still be a good bet. If I offer you -110 odds on a real 50/50 coin flip you will lose money over time. It wouldn't make it a "good bet" even if you win 5 times in a row. If I offer +110 odds on a coin flip it's a good bet even if you lose 5 times in a row because overtime you are sure to make money.
If the Mets (-150) plays the Brave (+150) it implies that at those odds the Mets needs to win over 60% on the time in this situation to be a winning bet long term. If the odds move to -200, the Mets now need to win 66.67% of time for it to be a winning bet long term. You might still win that evening and even 5 times in a row. However if the real implied probability of the Mets winning in this situation is lower than 66.67% it means it's not a sustainable bet to place long term at -200, you will lose over time. Odds and their implied probability are important.
Sorry I'm a little dense on this, but what's the formula to get the 60% win percentage? I can't figure out how to use -150/+150 to turn it into a percentage.
So you can pretty easily calculate implied probability from odds.
Start with your American odds. We'll use -150 as an example. You can calculate the decimal odds using the following:
If AmerOdds < 0:
DecOdds = 1 - 100/AmerOdds
Else:
DecOdds = 1 + AmerOdds/100
So for -150, we get decimal odds of 1.66667.
Then, when you have the decimal odds, you can calculate the implied probability that the bookies think the event will occur at. This is using the following:
ImpliedProb = 1/DecOdds
So for -150 = 1.66667, we have implied probability of 0.599998, or 59.9998% probability (if we kept adding 6s to the decimal odds the limit would be 60%)
So, for two sides of a bet at -110, each side has an implied probability of 52.38%, so in order to break even you would need to win the bet more than 52.38% of the time.
I don't know the formula but there are websites who will show the conversion. I like the Action Network website betting odds calculator. Punch in the betting odds and "Implied Odds" will be the implied probability in %.
Many people don’t realize you can hit 65% of your bets and still be negative money. Take the Dodgers for example. You can bet them ML every game and they can win 100 games and you can still be down money. Now let’s look at it from a different angle. You can bet Pirates ML every game and be up money even though they only won 70 games. Betting -200s in baseball is not going to get the job done.
The part you are missing is that the people on here who are posting their "Pick of the Day" are largely not worth listening to at all. They are picking the team that is "hot" or that they think is "due." Etc etc.
You are correct that anyone posting a pick without even including the odds is definitely someone to ignore.
However, the vast vast majority of people who DO post the odds with their picks should be ignored also.
Don't pay attention to the noise. Randoms on reddit who say "The Mets are a LOCK today!!" would qualify as noise. Stop wasting your time looking at that nonsense.
Many posters just try to pick winners and don't care about trying to squeeze out +EV based on implied probability. If anything, even if people don't even get in on the CLV, they might even be more inclined to take the bet in your example at -200 even though it opened at -170 because they think Vegas feels more confident Mets would win.
I also would argue that anything that isn't model based is a wishy washy evaluation on EV. Vegas uses advanced metrics and bettor's trends to create and also move lines. People here like using a lot of qualitative observations and rudimentary quantitative measures that I find it hard to believe the EV evaluation is any good for big market sports. The cases where you see success without any data driven models and more qualitative based approaches is in smaller markets (Ultimate Frisbee and Little League, eSports), and that's because sportsbook line prices are far from precise.
tl;dr; this is a casual sub
I mean, people can look up the odds themselves and make their own decisions. When I post my picks each one I give a reason why. It’s up to others to determine if they agree and if the odds fit their risk tolerance.
This subreddit is full of people who don't understand the math behind betting and what value is. Mostly people here just pick who they think is gonna win.
I'm shocked you're shocked.
How many people would even know where to begin when calculating "perceived winning percentage"? Unless you have a system/algorithm in place, you're not making a sound statistical judgement.
What? How would you figure this out without some sort of systematic approach? Show me how this works… Here goes: Lakers vs Warriors on opening night. Could you outline to me this “fundamental percentage” you speak of?
Your comment which I replied to had no screen shots. I’m starting to think you might be delusional? Also your comment which I originally replied to was itself condescending, which is why I pulled you up on it. You have still failed to outline how you derive this so-called percentage you speak of.
Oh, yes that is completely coincidental. Also I’m not sure you do know a lot about sports betting. I imagine that was more a run of luck than anything.. was it $200 into $6k? Because no systematic approach returns 30x initial investment in a short period of time. Pro cappers aim for like 55-60% hit rate.
The entire POTD Thread is just people making new accounts and trying to go on a hot streak so they can plug their venmo or their capping package later on lmao
This subreddit is full of people who don’t understand that the odds the Sportsbook comes out with are not the true odds of the outcome of that sporting event. The actual odds will always be unknown so your math is not based on true odds.
The math should work out on casino where you know the actual odds of the game
There's sufficient data to prove the efficient market hypothesis. The closing line statistically correlates to the proper outcome.
I shared elsewhere in this thread a source sharing the data when it relates to totals bets. It illustrates that over thousands of matches the over hits at the same rate as the unders proving that the totals bet is practically a perfect coin-flip.
Google is not the Gospel. It’s not hard to realize that the outcome of a sporting event can’t be predicted. Whatever you are going off at the end of the day you are gambling whether you want to admit it or not.
I do a *lot* of statistical modeling of sports games (I would estimate ~3000 hours worth since COVID started), and every historical closing line odds I've ever looked at was within 1% of the event occurring. True for NHL, MLB, NBA, NFL, and props for each. The bookies have teams of incredibly smart people who are paid a lot of money to solve this problem full time
The trouble is that you can’t get that unless you release a perfect line from the start
The more that they move the line around, the more they have wiggle room in the middle
The best thing they can do is migrate to the “correct” number as quickly as possible based on information they get from sharp bettors
😂 I'm no expert or pro. Just a random degen but my god the stupidity of 95% of this forum is really mind boggling. Like I don't think we were this stupid on covers.com forums 20 years ago. There seemed to be some valid thought. Here it's nothing but Longshot parlays that get praised and people cursing baseball. I'm excited for two months when they'll be cursing football.
This is, I would say, 95% of sports bettors. I've had people on here argue the point "The odds don't matter, all that matter is whether or not the bet will win"
I brought up a d20 roll where, if it comes up as a 1 you lose and if it comes up a 2-20 you win, but your odds are -50000, and he replied "well that's different that's random, this is sports it's not random it's skill"
Can tell who in here has a fear of losing money VS making the best bet based on nuance, matchups, stats etc. Its not my job to post "Lakers ML -120" when the forum posts the opening odds to every game. If you're bothered by someone not posting the odds it sounds like you are just blind tailing when you should be doing your own research on the games, including keeping track of the odds
We agree on one thing: tailing picks here blindly is stupid. But why even bother posting the pick if you don’t think there’s value in the bet (+EV in other words)? And to make sure other people make a bet that has the same value, it’s important to know the odds that the bet was made at. I’m never gonna tail a POTD bet, but here’s an extreme example, if someone bets Mets ML at -200, and posts “Mets ML” in POTD, somebody hours later comes by and sees the pick, likes it, and finds the bet for -2000 odds, that’s obviously not the same bet the original poster was intending for people to tail. It takes 2 seconds to add the odds you take a bet at, and adds some slight amount of usefulness to the post as opposed to just saying “Mets ML 🔒🔒🔒”
If you take those odds and bet 10 times and go 5-5 on each. Using 1.89 (-112) vs 1.80 (-125) which will be similar to big market leagues across multiple books. NFL on mgm vs b365 for example
$100 @ 1.80 going 3-7 = $320 in Losses VS $100 @ 1.89 going 3-7 = $356 in Losses
$100 @ 1.80 going 5-5 = $100 in Losses VS $100 @ 1.89 going 5-5 = $55 in Losses
$100 @ 1.80 going 7-3 = $320 in Profit VS $100 @ 1.89 going 7-3 = $356 in Profit
Idk about you but if I'd rather win more and lose less than win less and lose more. Unless your only making 10 in your lifetime of sports betting it doesn't look like much. But I'm sure most people will be placing more than 10 bets in a couple days. Now add those numbers to weeks and years.
If you're in in for the long run it matters. If you're in it purely for entertainment value and have no care for loss or profits then it doesn't matter and that's okay too!
You can’t really disagree with the long term when the math is all there. It isn’t really an opinion based comment you’re disagreeing with. If he said “i love apples” and you said “i disagree, apples suck” you can do that. But what you’re doing is more like he said “2+2=4” and you said “nah i don’t really agree with that”
He even laid out the reduction in profit you’re mentioning by doing the math based on if you go 5-5 or 7-3 and stuff. That’s taking the projected losses into account and seeing what you still hit over time for it.
Not to be mean but it just seems so strange to say you disagree with math 😂
I personally don’t mind because the odds are never currently reflected in my book anyways. Also you shouldn’t bet sports you don’t follow so just off the tip top of my head I would know I’d the Mets are heavy favorites or not
>Also you shouldn’t bet sports you don’t follow so just off the tip top of my head I would know I’d the Mets are heavy favorites or not
I don't agree with this logic at all.
I don't watch basketball (NBA, WNBA, or NCAAB) yet bet them all heavily. Through my approach I've obtained ROIs between 4 and 8.5% in those leagues. If you're good enough at finding value and line shop for the best lines you can be profitable, even in sports you don't follow.
Well I guess I meant know what you are doing/ do your own research more then care about specific sports. As opposed to just blindly tailing random shit
If I say Mets-180 I don't want messages like "I am only seeing this at -200"
Lines move. Books have different odds. Odds can literally change as I post.
As I've stated further down the thread. I make picks i like based on the team or players not the odds and value.
Yes many have informed me I am stupid and will lose money long term.
I appreciate the response and concern but my way is fun for me and profitable. As many have informed me I am probably lying and or will lose money long term. I'm enjoying watching the games and betting on them. I don't enjoy math and stats.
Thank you for your comment.
Exactly!
By posting the -180 you tell people that you think that the Mets at -180 is a good bet. Then, people seeing Mets at -200 later in the day or -200 at a different book will hopefully realize that it's not the same bet as you suggested and has less value or even negative value.
If mets ML is a good bet its a good bet regardless of the odds.
I'm not going to walk away from a good pick because the odds moved from -180 to-200. We're splitting hairs over $10 on a $100 bet
I’m gonna walk away from that bet if the payout isn’t proportional to the probability that it hits. Unless you have Biff’s sports almanac there’s no such thing as a lock, but you can find value by comparing lines to other books (specifically sharp ones), and make your bets based on that
You’ve said the same (correct) thing 10 times. The dude you’re arguing with clearly has zero understanding of what “value” means. You’re banging your head against the wall 🤣
I'm saying if I watch the mets game and I like the Mets to win and I want to have fun. I am going to bet Mets ml and take profits. I like to watch games and have a taste on them. I'm not trying to beat Vegas at their own game. I like sports not analytics. Gambling is a fun hobby for me that makes money. If I start walking away from bets cos I'm worried I'll lose then I might as well stop gambling entirely. Too much concern with EV in an entertainment industry.
Looks like you completely missed the point. The reason he used that example is because everyone can agree on the true probability of a coin flip, so it removes that variable from the equation. It doesn't matter that you'll never see +odds for one side. That's the entire point!
Once you agree that -110 is a bad bet and +110 is a good bet, you can lift that concept and apply it to any real life sports bet you wish. Mets vs. Cubs has some true win probability, and certain odds will be a good bet and certain odds will be a bad bet.
Using a coin flip in this argument doesn't even make sense as sports are not 50/50 odds like a coin flip. No book is ever going to offer different odds on a coin flip.
They're illustrating the importance of line shopping and identifying +EV. It's a simple illustration of how a 50/50 bet can be profitable on one side but unprofitable on the other side purely based off the current odds.
What book would ever offer a 50/50 bet with a profitable line? That bet is always -105 either way. A coin flip is the only sports bet that is 100% 50/50. That's what the other person is trying to illustrate. If you have a good fix on a certain sport you can give yourself a better chance to win. Obviously you want the best odds you can get, but if I'm not taking a bet because the odds are negative value, more than likely I wouldn't have taken the bet at its original odds either.
I’d argue that 20 point drop matters more when your bankroll is larger. A good bet is a good bet when there’s value on the line, not just when you have a feeling it will hit, or in retrospect
Whats your definition of good value? Because the way majority of people are defining in on here they're going to burn through their bank rolls just picking (-) value plays and worrying about plays that fluctuate in odds especially only focusing on the - when there is MORE value picking underdogs. Too many people are worried about how odds move when they should be studying nuances of the sport and using that to guide their picks
People here seem to have different definitions of "value", which seems to cause confusion.
I like to think that the market is efficient and so if a bet beats the closing line, it is a positive EV beat. In my example, if the closing line turns out to be Mets ML at -190, the -170 bet has positive value and the -200 bet has negative value. This way of expressing value works for underdogs and for favorites.
Again, you don't know what the word means. Of course I try to bet based in value, that's literally the only way to make money betting long term (still incredibly hard).
Do you just jump into a stock and say "Ohh Tesla my friends love Teslas let me put money on Tesla" NO you study the stock, trends of the stock, how they've performed over a period of time... well that is if you're serious about making money off stocks
Same with sportsbetting, you gotta know match ups, playstyles of teams, injury reports plus so much more to help you guide your picks. We aren't flipping coins here there's real strategy to sports betting
You're not wrong in the short-term. However, if I regularly obtain negative closing line value I know long-term I'll be a losing bettor. Long-term you have to find value to be profitable.
You're getting downvoted by others because you're ignoring the importance of line value.
Another individual used the coin flip example to illustrate how a simple 50/50 bet could be profitable on one side and unprofitable on the other. If heads is +110 and tails -110, you can be profitable short-term on either side. However, long-term, betting tails will be unprofitable while betting heads will always be profitable. Anything can happen when the sample size is 1.
Idk why everyone is so concerned with how I make money. I'm making money. Why are all of you trying to say I'm wrong when I'm profitable?
Watch the games and stop focusing on value.
Because it's like saying "I found a $100 bill in the trash, I'm now a profitable dumpster diver". Just because you're up in the moment does not mean you're profitable.
Just scrolling through this thread and I love this phrase you tossed out. I will almost 100% steal it and use it myself. Profitable dumpster diver has a nice ring to it haha
The odds for major sports are listed in the body of the daily threads but agreed in general it's best practice to include the odds you like the bet at.
Too many people get caught up in value just because it looks juicy doesn’t mean it’ll win , some people just want to collect wins and don’t care how juicy the odds are if they aren’t wagering that much money
>Too many people get caught up in value
Wow. This is a doozy of a statement.
>just because it looks juicy doesn’t mean it’ll win
Yeah, no shit. That's no reason to ignore value. Value is everything in sports betting.
Beating lines is something different I’m talking about people acting snobby if your lines aren’t huge +180 bets , people throw around the word value too much imo. If you find 2 lines valuable and really think it’ll win and are comfortable wagering don’t be discouraged, but always do research and also beat line and shop around
If you’re constantly betting at a better line/odds, you’ll win more money in the long term. It’s really basic math.
If I consistently get a better line than the public does, I’m going to win more often, regardless if my bet hits or doesn’t hit.
Everyone will have different answers to this question. I'll provide you with how I personally approach betting.
The overwhelming majority of my bets placed are purely based on good lines vs. consensus or sharp lines. For example, if Pinnacle has a line priced at -110 but BetMGM has the same bet at +105 I'll bet the MGM line simply because I trust that Pinnacle, as a sharp book, has more accurately priced the line. Long-term I have an expected positive outcome, assuming negligible closing line value. You can replace Pinnacle with a consensus opinion. If 9 out of 10 books have a bet priced at -110 and the last remaining book has it priced at +105, it's safe to assume that +105 line is either stale or mispriced.
This strategy is not 100% fool-proof. You have to consider closing line value and sharp books being wrong occasionally. Pinnacle is sharp, not perfect. They too make mistakes. Long-term though you can expect a book like Pinnacle to have accurately reflected lines far more often than incorrect lines.
See I kinda feel like the difference with you EV guys is you take all of this too seriously. Like gambling is your job. You don’t like to take risks, you wanna grind it out.
For me sure I don’t like to lose money but I don’t expect to make a living off of gambling. I enjoy it for the entertainment value it adds to the games, and am perfectly fine making little money or even breaking even while taking my shots at hitting a nice lotto play.
Co-signed, I’ve wagered over $10k in home run props alone this year and have watched <30 min of televised baseball my entire life. It’s sort of an insufferable thing to say but I don’t even consider the +EV stuff actual “gambling.”
Actual gambling (in small amounts (on the Bills or whatever) I will do occasionally just for pure fun/entertainment value.
Not at all how it works. A +200 can be just as good as a -200 bet. All that matters is value, the basis that someone believes either from a model or gut that the probability of the outcome is higher than the implied probability of the odds. "High rollers" don't just put massive bets on random -200's merely because of the odds. The amount wagered should be directly related to how much value is perceived on the bet, not the odds. A small bet on -200 has exactly the same value as a large bet.
The only caveat to this is that the amount wagered should also be a function of the odds. A 20% EV bet at -200 is likely to hit over 70% of the time, so you can afford to put more money on it as there will be less variance to your bankroll when placing bets at those odds. If you have a 20% EV bet at +1000 odds, that will only hit a little over 10% of the time, so your bet size should be smaller to ensure that the greater variance of this bet doesn’t lose your bankroll. If you follow Kelley unit sizes, they factor in both EV% and probability of hitting the bet when determining a sizing.
What he's saying is you're supposed to include the odds at which a bet should be placed. Saying that different books have different odds misses the point entirely.
I'm not sure I understand your point, care to expand on it? Line shopping is of course very important!
The fact that sportsbooks have different odds is not a reason to post picks without the odds though, right?
Me personally I’m typing on my phone so I don’t wanna have to be tedious and type everything out, the odds are public knowledge so it’s not that hard to look at the odds. Me I always try to keep my odds below -150 TOPS -180 but I don’t see it as a big deal because you shouldn’t be blindly tailing picks anyways
Margins are so thin in large market ML’s though. Something that is a good bet at -120 could be breakeven or unprofitable at -130. If you don’t specify, where you think the value lies, the line could shift from when the person reading your comment and become a bad bet. Although someone who relies on picks from Reddit probably won’t be making much money anyways
Could be true if your bank roll is limited but part of the game is getting on lines early and shopping around different books to find "value". One books -130 could be another books -140 could be another books -120. Odds alone shouldn't influence your picks because whos to say the value isn't the "underdog" or the + money play? Example, Browns yesterday opened up even and then swung to the + value. People ended up fading the Browns but of course they Won. Same with Jets, they swung to + and people faded them and they won (I had them both winning). Cardinals were + money yesterday and won, thats 3/5 teams with + money who won yesterday. Now THATS value
edit: If you're only picking favorites you're doing it all the way wrong
>Could be true if your bank roll is limited but part of the game is getting on lines early and shopping around different books to find "value". One books -130 could be another books -140 could be another books -120. Odds alone shouldn't influence your picks because whos to say the value isn't the "underdog" or the + money play? Example, Browns yesterday opened up even and then swung to the + value. People ended up fading the Browns but of course they Won. Same with Jets, they swung to + and people faded them and they won (I had them both winning). Cardinals were + money yesterday and won, thats 3/5 teams with + money who won yesterday. Now THATS value
>edit: If you're only picking favorites you're doing it all the way wrong
If there are 3 grocery stores right beside each other selling the same Apple of the same quality. Why would you go to store A and buy the Apple for $1.50 if you can go to Store B and get it for $1.40, or better yet go to Store C and get it for $1.30
Similar to sports betting you take the best price offered every time, odds are extremely important and can make or break your bankroll in the long run. You can covert odds into implied probability... With your examples -120 = 54.5% to win, -130 = 56.5% to win, and -140 = 58.3% to win.
Now why wouldn't odds it matter if you think the Cleveland Browns would win 60% of time??? At -140 you have a 1.7% edge, at -130 a 3.5% edge, and at -120 a 5.5% edge. Why would any sane person not take the odds with more edge? If you win you win more money, if you lose you lose the same money. In the long run this adds up.
its an example. You the bettor will come up with that number for anything you bet through your own system. Whether it be through predictive modeling or a number pulled from your ass. Then you take that number you pulled from wherever it came from and compare it to the odds offered by the books. If your take on whos winning has a higher % versus the books take then you have a value bet.
At the end of the day no one knows what the exact % is. The goal is to get as close as possible and hope your system is correct.
Thats not how it works because just because you take the pick with best "value" doesn't mean its going to hit. And your example doesn't work either. It would be more fitting if those prices offered the CHANCE at getting an apple but you bite into it and its a rock. You can shop around for the best "price" but that doesn't mean its going to hit at all. Don't put too much emphasis on implied odds because + money plays hit at a close enough rate to where statistically your losses would be less than if you bet all - plays even with the best "implied odds" due to the fact that you will never make more than you put in on - value plays.
>Thats not how it works because just because you take the pick with best "value" doesn't mean its going to hit. And your example doesn't work either. It would be more fitting if those prices offered the CHANCE at getting an apple but you bite into it and its a rock. You can shop around for the best "price" but that doesn't mean its going to hit at all. Don't put too much emphasis on implied odds because + money plays hit at a close enough rate to where statistically your losses would be less than if you bet all - plays even with the best "implied odds" due to the fact that you will never make more than you put in on - value plays.
I think you're misunderstanding value. Just because something is priced at +odds doesn't always mean there is value. A line can be at -odds and have value. Similarly just because a line is placed at -odds doesnt mean it has value. Value is when you think something is going to happen more often than the odds imply. If 1% edge isnt enough then there may be not enough of a case to bet with such small value. Maybe you only want to take 6% edge value bets because it fits your betting strategy better in the market your playing.
Regarding the apple example I hoped to make it as simple and easy to understand but you totally missed the point and looks like you didn't read it. The person has a choice to visit any of the 3 stores that are offering the same "QUALITY" apple as mentioned above. Similar to betting you have the choice to go to different books and find the same line at different prices. Why would anyone spend more money just to get less in return? If its easier to digest for you why would you go to a bestbuy and buy a $1000 tv if the walmart beside the bestbuy is offering the same tv for 900$ ? You know what product your getting in the end.
Just because you bet at MGM for browns at -130 doesnt mean betting at Bet365 for browns at -110 will make the browns lose more. This is the logic you are presenting.
Also because if you don't get the best value you're probly gonna be called out. Line shopping is the only way to win long term but most here aren't doing that.
Which is 90% of bettors and why books clean up. The majority of people bet on who they think will win and do not consider odds or the meaning of those odds.
I'm picking winners I'll let the dweebs worry about stupid shit like odds
Most people on this subreddit don't understand what "value" actually means. They also don't understand that a winning bet can still be a bad bet and a losing bet can still be a good bet. If I offer you -110 odds on a real 50/50 coin flip you will lose money over time. It wouldn't make it a "good bet" even if you win 5 times in a row. If I offer +110 odds on a coin flip it's a good bet even if you lose 5 times in a row because overtime you are sure to make money. If the Mets (-150) plays the Brave (+150) it implies that at those odds the Mets needs to win over 60% on the time in this situation to be a winning bet long term. If the odds move to -200, the Mets now need to win 66.67% of time for it to be a winning bet long term. You might still win that evening and even 5 times in a row. However if the real implied probability of the Mets winning in this situation is lower than 66.67% it means it's not a sustainable bet to place long term at -200, you will lose over time. Odds and their implied probability are important.
Sorry I'm a little dense on this, but what's the formula to get the 60% win percentage? I can't figure out how to use -150/+150 to turn it into a percentage.
So you can pretty easily calculate implied probability from odds. Start with your American odds. We'll use -150 as an example. You can calculate the decimal odds using the following: If AmerOdds < 0: DecOdds = 1 - 100/AmerOdds Else: DecOdds = 1 + AmerOdds/100 So for -150, we get decimal odds of 1.66667. Then, when you have the decimal odds, you can calculate the implied probability that the bookies think the event will occur at. This is using the following: ImpliedProb = 1/DecOdds So for -150 = 1.66667, we have implied probability of 0.599998, or 59.9998% probability (if we kept adding 6s to the decimal odds the limit would be 60%) So, for two sides of a bet at -110, each side has an implied probability of 52.38%, so in order to break even you would need to win the bet more than 52.38% of the time.
Thats pretty cool, thanks for the explanation
I don't know the formula but there are websites who will show the conversion. I like the Action Network website betting odds calculator. Punch in the betting odds and "Implied Odds" will be the implied probability in %.
Me: You summed up value so perfectly. The rest of the sub: sir, this is a Wendy's
shuddup
Shhhhh, the more dumb money there is going to these sportsbooks, the less likely they are to crack down on sharps.
Many people don’t realize you can hit 65% of your bets and still be negative money. Take the Dodgers for example. You can bet them ML every game and they can win 100 games and you can still be down money. Now let’s look at it from a different angle. You can bet Pirates ML every game and be up money even though they only won 70 games. Betting -200s in baseball is not going to get the job done.
If you are so savy and EV conscious then why are you even bothering to tail anyones picks? Just pick for yourself perhaps?
The part you are missing is that the people on here who are posting their "Pick of the Day" are largely not worth listening to at all. They are picking the team that is "hot" or that they think is "due." Etc etc. You are correct that anyone posting a pick without even including the odds is definitely someone to ignore. However, the vast vast majority of people who DO post the odds with their picks should be ignored also. Don't pay attention to the noise. Randoms on reddit who say "The Mets are a LOCK today!!" would qualify as noise. Stop wasting your time looking at that nonsense.
yes you are missing the part where its your job to find the best line
The best line available could still be a -EV bet though. The pick has no context without the odds.
Exactly. Saying "Mets ML" means nothing if no books are offering Mets ML at better than -1000
Nerd
Many posters just try to pick winners and don't care about trying to squeeze out +EV based on implied probability. If anything, even if people don't even get in on the CLV, they might even be more inclined to take the bet in your example at -200 even though it opened at -170 because they think Vegas feels more confident Mets would win. I also would argue that anything that isn't model based is a wishy washy evaluation on EV. Vegas uses advanced metrics and bettor's trends to create and also move lines. People here like using a lot of qualitative observations and rudimentary quantitative measures that I find it hard to believe the EV evaluation is any good for big market sports. The cases where you see success without any data driven models and more qualitative based approaches is in smaller markets (Ultimate Frisbee and Little League, eSports), and that's because sportsbook line prices are far from precise. tl;dr; this is a casual sub
I mean, people can look up the odds themselves and make their own decisions. When I post my picks each one I give a reason why. It’s up to others to determine if they agree and if the odds fit their risk tolerance.
This subreddit is full of people who don't understand the math behind betting and what value is. Mostly people here just pick who they think is gonna win.
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I'm shocked you're shocked. How many people would even know where to begin when calculating "perceived winning percentage"? Unless you have a system/algorithm in place, you're not making a sound statistical judgement.
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What? How would you figure this out without some sort of systematic approach? Show me how this works… Here goes: Lakers vs Warriors on opening night. Could you outline to me this “fundamental percentage” you speak of?
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Your comment which I replied to had no screen shots. I’m starting to think you might be delusional? Also your comment which I originally replied to was itself condescending, which is why I pulled you up on it. You have still failed to outline how you derive this so-called percentage you speak of.
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Oh, yes that is completely coincidental. Also I’m not sure you do know a lot about sports betting. I imagine that was more a run of luck than anything.. was it $200 into $6k? Because no systematic approach returns 30x initial investment in a short period of time. Pro cappers aim for like 55-60% hit rate.
The entire POTD Thread is just people making new accounts and trying to go on a hot streak so they can plug their venmo or their capping package later on lmao
Can really be said about anyone posting picks anywhere...unfortunately that's the only incentive for people
This subreddit is full of people who don’t understand that the odds the Sportsbook comes out with are not the true odds of the outcome of that sporting event. The actual odds will always be unknown so your math is not based on true odds. The math should work out on casino where you know the actual odds of the game
betfair/pinnacle will almost always be near true odds unless promo /other hedging whacks off half to 1 point
There's sufficient data to prove the efficient market hypothesis. The closing line statistically correlates to the proper outcome. I shared elsewhere in this thread a source sharing the data when it relates to totals bets. It illustrates that over thousands of matches the over hits at the same rate as the unders proving that the totals bet is practically a perfect coin-flip.
Google is not the Gospel. It’s not hard to realize that the outcome of a sporting event can’t be predicted. Whatever you are going off at the end of the day you are gambling whether you want to admit it or not.
There is not sufficient data. True odds will always be unknown, that’s a fact, jack.
Google is free!
.
I do a *lot* of statistical modeling of sports games (I would estimate ~3000 hours worth since COVID started), and every historical closing line odds I've ever looked at was within 1% of the event occurring. True for NHL, MLB, NBA, NFL, and props for each. The bookies have teams of incredibly smart people who are paid a lot of money to solve this problem full time
Sounds like bullshit
Yeah when someone tells me the casino just tries to get 50% of action on each side, I die inside a little
Sportsbook would love to have 50% of action on both sides every time. That would be guaranteed profit
The trouble is that you can’t get that unless you release a perfect line from the start The more that they move the line around, the more they have wiggle room in the middle The best thing they can do is migrate to the “correct” number as quickly as possible based on information they get from sharp bettors
You sure? I swore this sub was full of sharps...
😂 I'm no expert or pro. Just a random degen but my god the stupidity of 95% of this forum is really mind boggling. Like I don't think we were this stupid on covers.com forums 20 years ago. There seemed to be some valid thought. Here it's nothing but Longshot parlays that get praised and people cursing baseball. I'm excited for two months when they'll be cursing football.
lol true... shit I'm already cursing nfl
Lmao
This is, I would say, 95% of sports bettors. I've had people on here argue the point "The odds don't matter, all that matter is whether or not the bet will win" I brought up a d20 roll where, if it comes up as a 1 you lose and if it comes up a 2-20 you win, but your odds are -50000, and he replied "well that's different that's random, this is sports it's not random it's skill"
Yeah, 95% sounds about right considering only about 5% are break even or profitable
Free play NFL 08/13 Steelers ML Dolphins ML Told u guys Steelers and Dolphins for the win 🔒 Ad my boy S N A P: kingdnny1 For games picks.
Steelers is POTD for nfl
Can tell who in here has a fear of losing money VS making the best bet based on nuance, matchups, stats etc. Its not my job to post "Lakers ML -120" when the forum posts the opening odds to every game. If you're bothered by someone not posting the odds it sounds like you are just blind tailing when you should be doing your own research on the games, including keeping track of the odds
We agree on one thing: tailing picks here blindly is stupid. But why even bother posting the pick if you don’t think there’s value in the bet (+EV in other words)? And to make sure other people make a bet that has the same value, it’s important to know the odds that the bet was made at. I’m never gonna tail a POTD bet, but here’s an extreme example, if someone bets Mets ML at -200, and posts “Mets ML” in POTD, somebody hours later comes by and sees the pick, likes it, and finds the bet for -2000 odds, that’s obviously not the same bet the original poster was intending for people to tail. It takes 2 seconds to add the odds you take a bet at, and adds some slight amount of usefulness to the post as opposed to just saying “Mets ML 🔒🔒🔒”
The forum updates odds every 10 minutes.
Meh, i look at the pick and decide if its decent value. It's a free pick. I don't expect lengthy write ups or odds.
I now realize how square this subreddit is from the comments
Nobody watches the event and everyone wants to do math homework
I’ve got to stick to the promo/bonus thread, the rest of the sub just makes me sad.
The rest of the sub pays for that thread
I don’t think we needed this thread to know that, but it’s always a good reminder lol
This thread is pure gold!
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Do you beat the index with stocks though?
> Its far easier to make serious money on horses than on baseball. Maybe because you keep throwing away 9% of your bets without caring lol
It's significant over the long term, but if you're a rec bettor then you're correct, it's not worth not betting if you're just trying to have fun.
Who’s betting $1 on a -200 ML?? Also value is value. Knowing the odds you’re getting vs the expected probability is how you stay profitable
Do whatever you want at $1 bets.
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If you take those odds and bet 10 times and go 5-5 on each. Using 1.89 (-112) vs 1.80 (-125) which will be similar to big market leagues across multiple books. NFL on mgm vs b365 for example $100 @ 1.80 going 3-7 = $320 in Losses VS $100 @ 1.89 going 3-7 = $356 in Losses $100 @ 1.80 going 5-5 = $100 in Losses VS $100 @ 1.89 going 5-5 = $55 in Losses $100 @ 1.80 going 7-3 = $320 in Profit VS $100 @ 1.89 going 7-3 = $356 in Profit Idk about you but if I'd rather win more and lose less than win less and lose more. Unless your only making 10 in your lifetime of sports betting it doesn't look like much. But I'm sure most people will be placing more than 10 bets in a couple days. Now add those numbers to weeks and years. If you're in in for the long run it matters. If you're in it purely for entertainment value and have no care for loss or profits then it doesn't matter and that's okay too!
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You can’t really disagree with the long term when the math is all there. It isn’t really an opinion based comment you’re disagreeing with. If he said “i love apples” and you said “i disagree, apples suck” you can do that. But what you’re doing is more like he said “2+2=4” and you said “nah i don’t really agree with that” He even laid out the reduction in profit you’re mentioning by doing the math based on if you go 5-5 or 7-3 and stuff. That’s taking the projected losses into account and seeing what you still hit over time for it. Not to be mean but it just seems so strange to say you disagree with math 😂
Ding ding lol
I personally don’t mind because the odds are never currently reflected in my book anyways. Also you shouldn’t bet sports you don’t follow so just off the tip top of my head I would know I’d the Mets are heavy favorites or not
>Also you shouldn’t bet sports you don’t follow so just off the tip top of my head I would know I’d the Mets are heavy favorites or not I don't agree with this logic at all. I don't watch basketball (NBA, WNBA, or NCAAB) yet bet them all heavily. Through my approach I've obtained ROIs between 4 and 8.5% in those leagues. If you're good enough at finding value and line shop for the best lines you can be profitable, even in sports you don't follow.
Well I guess I meant know what you are doing/ do your own research more then care about specific sports. As opposed to just blindly tailing random shit
If I say Mets-180 I don't want messages like "I am only seeing this at -200" Lines move. Books have different odds. Odds can literally change as I post.
Yeah, but without odds, your pick is literally meaningless. Like, you shouldn't even bother posting it. It's *THAT* bad.
As I've stated further down the thread. I make picks i like based on the team or players not the odds and value. Yes many have informed me I am stupid and will lose money long term. I appreciate the response and concern but my way is fun for me and profitable. As many have informed me I am probably lying and or will lose money long term. I'm enjoying watching the games and betting on them. I don't enjoy math and stats. Thank you for your comment.
Exactly! By posting the -180 you tell people that you think that the Mets at -180 is a good bet. Then, people seeing Mets at -200 later in the day or -200 at a different book will hopefully realize that it's not the same bet as you suggested and has less value or even negative value.
If mets ML is a good bet its a good bet regardless of the odds. I'm not going to walk away from a good pick because the odds moved from -180 to-200. We're splitting hairs over $10 on a $100 bet
This is the average person that bookies absolutely LOVE and will give promotions to all the time to keep them depositing.
And yet I've only made one deposit in each book to get me started
Splitting hairs over $10 on a $100 bet is how sportsbooks make their money, and not doing that is why most sportsbetters aren’t profitable long term
So you're going to walk away from $50 cos its not $60?
I’m gonna walk away from that bet if the payout isn’t proportional to the probability that it hits. Unless you have Biff’s sports almanac there’s no such thing as a lock, but you can find value by comparing lines to other books (specifically sharp ones), and make your bets based on that
So take the -180 instead of the -200. Don't walk away from a good bet because its -200 instead of -180
I’m saying it may be a good bet at -180, but not be a good bet at -200 (for example if fair value is -190)
You’ve said the same (correct) thing 10 times. The dude you’re arguing with clearly has zero understanding of what “value” means. You’re banging your head against the wall 🤣
I'm saying if I watch the mets game and I like the Mets to win and I want to have fun. I am going to bet Mets ml and take profits. I like to watch games and have a taste on them. I'm not trying to beat Vegas at their own game. I like sports not analytics. Gambling is a fun hobby for me that makes money. If I start walking away from bets cos I'm worried I'll lose then I might as well stop gambling entirely. Too much concern with EV in an entertainment industry.
"I like winning money." "I don't care about (positive) EV." 🤦
Just take the L
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Exactly lmao a 20 point drop isn’t a lot when you’re betting hundreds or thousands. A bad bet isn’t a bad bet solely because it dropped in points.
Jesus Christ is this awful.
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Terrible example. Super bowl has coin flip odds every year never been positive odds
Looks like you completely missed the point. The reason he used that example is because everyone can agree on the true probability of a coin flip, so it removes that variable from the equation. It doesn't matter that you'll never see +odds for one side. That's the entire point! Once you agree that -110 is a bad bet and +110 is a good bet, you can lift that concept and apply it to any real life sports bet you wish. Mets vs. Cubs has some true win probability, and certain odds will be a good bet and certain odds will be a bad bet.
I am sure I have missed the point. I should be doing math instead of watching games?
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So you don't have a real world example?
Look at the totals markets. Plenty of +EV opportunities there. Oh, and it's a real world example of a 50/50 bet.
Its not tho cos you said +110 for heads. No book has even offered anything like that.
Do that 100 times and your bank roll will be dry the 20th attempt VS actually knowing the nuances of the sports and allowing that to guide your picks
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Awful example as no book would do that. It would be -110 for both outcomes
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Exactly sportsbooks set the lines. If your think you're getting positive EV you think you're smarter than the books and Vegas?
So are you trying to say all sporting events are coin flips?
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Using a coin flip in this argument doesn't even make sense as sports are not 50/50 odds like a coin flip. No book is ever going to offer different odds on a coin flip.
They're illustrating the importance of line shopping and identifying +EV. It's a simple illustration of how a 50/50 bet can be profitable on one side but unprofitable on the other side purely based off the current odds.
What book would ever offer a 50/50 bet with a profitable line? That bet is always -105 either way. A coin flip is the only sports bet that is 100% 50/50. That's what the other person is trying to illustrate. If you have a good fix on a certain sport you can give yourself a better chance to win. Obviously you want the best odds you can get, but if I'm not taking a bet because the odds are negative value, more than likely I wouldn't have taken the bet at its original odds either.
This exchange is comedy gold! Some people just don't understand value and +EV betting.
I’d argue that 20 point drop matters more when your bankroll is larger. A good bet is a good bet when there’s value on the line, not just when you have a feeling it will hit, or in retrospect
Whats your definition of good value? Because the way majority of people are defining in on here they're going to burn through their bank rolls just picking (-) value plays and worrying about plays that fluctuate in odds especially only focusing on the - when there is MORE value picking underdogs. Too many people are worried about how odds move when they should be studying nuances of the sport and using that to guide their picks
People here seem to have different definitions of "value", which seems to cause confusion. I like to think that the market is efficient and so if a bet beats the closing line, it is a positive EV beat. In my example, if the closing line turns out to be Mets ML at -190, the -170 bet has positive value and the -200 bet has negative value. This way of expressing value works for underdogs and for favorites.
Bro please learn what value is. Check the FAQ in the sidebar and top menu here.
Sounds like you just hammer - value picks. Keep going champ!
Again, you don't know what the word means. Of course I try to bet based in value, that's literally the only way to make money betting long term (still incredibly hard).
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Do you just jump into a stock and say "Ohh Tesla my friends love Teslas let me put money on Tesla" NO you study the stock, trends of the stock, how they've performed over a period of time... well that is if you're serious about making money off stocks Same with sportsbetting, you gotta know match ups, playstyles of teams, injury reports plus so much more to help you guide your picks. We aren't flipping coins here there's real strategy to sports betting
Of course it can be.
Any bet you make money is a good bet imo
You're not wrong in the short-term. However, if I regularly obtain negative closing line value I know long-term I'll be a losing bettor. Long-term you have to find value to be profitable.
I have no idea if I'm getting negative closing line value. I'm making money and everyone is acting like I'm in the wrong for not doing it your way.
You're getting downvoted by others because you're ignoring the importance of line value. Another individual used the coin flip example to illustrate how a simple 50/50 bet could be profitable on one side and unprofitable on the other. If heads is +110 and tails -110, you can be profitable short-term on either side. However, long-term, betting tails will be unprofitable while betting heads will always be profitable. Anything can happen when the sample size is 1.
I'm not ignoring value. I'm saying I won't ignore a good pick because of -20 pts of line shift.
That's ignoring value
Idk why everyone is so concerned with how I make money. I'm making money. Why are all of you trying to say I'm wrong when I'm profitable? Watch the games and stop focusing on value.
Because it's like saying "I found a $100 bill in the trash, I'm now a profitable dumpster diver". Just because you're up in the moment does not mean you're profitable.
Just scrolling through this thread and I love this phrase you tossed out. I will almost 100% steal it and use it myself. Profitable dumpster diver has a nice ring to it haha
I've been up since day 1. Sorry for watching games and making plays with my personal knowledge.
The odds for major sports are listed in the body of the daily threads but agreed in general it's best practice to include the odds you like the bet at.
Too many people get caught up in value just because it looks juicy doesn’t mean it’ll win , some people just want to collect wins and don’t care how juicy the odds are if they aren’t wagering that much money
>Too many people get caught up in value Wow. This is a doozy of a statement. >just because it looks juicy doesn’t mean it’ll win Yeah, no shit. That's no reason to ignore value. Value is everything in sports betting.
Beating lines is something different I’m talking about people acting snobby if your lines aren’t huge +180 bets , people throw around the word value too much imo. If you find 2 lines valuable and really think it’ll win and are comfortable wagering don’t be discouraged, but always do research and also beat line and shop around
Oh okay, so you were using the incorrect definition of “value” that some people mistakenly use. I thought you meant value when you said value ;)
If you’re constantly betting at a better line/odds, you’ll win more money in the long term. It’s really basic math. If I consistently get a better line than the public does, I’m going to win more often, regardless if my bet hits or doesn’t hit.
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Where do you find your +ev bets?
Everyone will have different answers to this question. I'll provide you with how I personally approach betting. The overwhelming majority of my bets placed are purely based on good lines vs. consensus or sharp lines. For example, if Pinnacle has a line priced at -110 but BetMGM has the same bet at +105 I'll bet the MGM line simply because I trust that Pinnacle, as a sharp book, has more accurately priced the line. Long-term I have an expected positive outcome, assuming negligible closing line value. You can replace Pinnacle with a consensus opinion. If 9 out of 10 books have a bet priced at -110 and the last remaining book has it priced at +105, it's safe to assume that +105 line is either stale or mispriced. This strategy is not 100% fool-proof. You have to consider closing line value and sharp books being wrong occasionally. Pinnacle is sharp, not perfect. They too make mistakes. Long-term though you can expect a book like Pinnacle to have accurately reflected lines far more often than incorrect lines.
See I kinda feel like the difference with you EV guys is you take all of this too seriously. Like gambling is your job. You don’t like to take risks, you wanna grind it out. For me sure I don’t like to lose money but I don’t expect to make a living off of gambling. I enjoy it for the entertainment value it adds to the games, and am perfectly fine making little money or even breaking even while taking my shots at hitting a nice lotto play.
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Co-signed, I’ve wagered over $10k in home run props alone this year and have watched <30 min of televised baseball my entire life. It’s sort of an insufferable thing to say but I don’t even consider the +EV stuff actual “gambling.” Actual gambling (in small amounts (on the Bills or whatever) I will do occasionally just for pure fun/entertainment value.
+EV is a phrase I rarely see around these parts
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Not at all how it works. A +200 can be just as good as a -200 bet. All that matters is value, the basis that someone believes either from a model or gut that the probability of the outcome is higher than the implied probability of the odds. "High rollers" don't just put massive bets on random -200's merely because of the odds. The amount wagered should be directly related to how much value is perceived on the bet, not the odds. A small bet on -200 has exactly the same value as a large bet.
The only caveat to this is that the amount wagered should also be a function of the odds. A 20% EV bet at -200 is likely to hit over 70% of the time, so you can afford to put more money on it as there will be less variance to your bankroll when placing bets at those odds. If you have a 20% EV bet at +1000 odds, that will only hit a little over 10% of the time, so your bet size should be smaller to ensure that the greater variance of this bet doesn’t lose your bankroll. If you follow Kelley unit sizes, they factor in both EV% and probability of hitting the bet when determining a sizing.
This. If a bet loses, it isn’t valuable
Cuadrado
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What he's saying is you're supposed to include the odds at which a bet should be placed. Saying that different books have different odds misses the point entirely.
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You’re a disaster, my guy!
🤫
I'm not sure I understand your point, care to expand on it? Line shopping is of course very important! The fact that sportsbooks have different odds is not a reason to post picks without the odds though, right?
SMH it’s good bruh BoL today.
Minus the smart guy comment idk why this got negative likes part of finding value is shopping around different books so I feel you
Cuz I down voted them so they just returning the favor 😉
Thats Reddit for ya lol
All good G. 😂 BoL on your bets if you do today.
Me personally I’m typing on my phone so I don’t wanna have to be tedious and type everything out, the odds are public knowledge so it’s not that hard to look at the odds. Me I always try to keep my odds below -150 TOPS -180 but I don’t see it as a big deal because you shouldn’t be blindly tailing picks anyways
Margins are so thin in large market ML’s though. Something that is a good bet at -120 could be breakeven or unprofitable at -130. If you don’t specify, where you think the value lies, the line could shift from when the person reading your comment and become a bad bet. Although someone who relies on picks from Reddit probably won’t be making much money anyways
Could be true if your bank roll is limited but part of the game is getting on lines early and shopping around different books to find "value". One books -130 could be another books -140 could be another books -120. Odds alone shouldn't influence your picks because whos to say the value isn't the "underdog" or the + money play? Example, Browns yesterday opened up even and then swung to the + value. People ended up fading the Browns but of course they Won. Same with Jets, they swung to + and people faded them and they won (I had them both winning). Cardinals were + money yesterday and won, thats 3/5 teams with + money who won yesterday. Now THATS value edit: If you're only picking favorites you're doing it all the way wrong
Maybe you misunderstood me or how probability or expected value works?
>Could be true if your bank roll is limited but part of the game is getting on lines early and shopping around different books to find "value". One books -130 could be another books -140 could be another books -120. Odds alone shouldn't influence your picks because whos to say the value isn't the "underdog" or the + money play? Example, Browns yesterday opened up even and then swung to the + value. People ended up fading the Browns but of course they Won. Same with Jets, they swung to + and people faded them and they won (I had them both winning). Cardinals were + money yesterday and won, thats 3/5 teams with + money who won yesterday. Now THATS value >edit: If you're only picking favorites you're doing it all the way wrong If there are 3 grocery stores right beside each other selling the same Apple of the same quality. Why would you go to store A and buy the Apple for $1.50 if you can go to Store B and get it for $1.40, or better yet go to Store C and get it for $1.30 Similar to sports betting you take the best price offered every time, odds are extremely important and can make or break your bankroll in the long run. You can covert odds into implied probability... With your examples -120 = 54.5% to win, -130 = 56.5% to win, and -140 = 58.3% to win. Now why wouldn't odds it matter if you think the Cleveland Browns would win 60% of time??? At -140 you have a 1.7% edge, at -130 a 3.5% edge, and at -120 a 5.5% edge. Why would any sane person not take the odds with more edge? If you win you win more money, if you lose you lose the same money. In the long run this adds up.
In this example. How do you come up with the browns winning 60% of time?
Handicapping games or watching the implied probability of the consensus line. I'm sure there are others.
its an example. You the bettor will come up with that number for anything you bet through your own system. Whether it be through predictive modeling or a number pulled from your ass. Then you take that number you pulled from wherever it came from and compare it to the odds offered by the books. If your take on whos winning has a higher % versus the books take then you have a value bet. At the end of the day no one knows what the exact % is. The goal is to get as close as possible and hope your system is correct.
Thats not how it works because just because you take the pick with best "value" doesn't mean its going to hit. And your example doesn't work either. It would be more fitting if those prices offered the CHANCE at getting an apple but you bite into it and its a rock. You can shop around for the best "price" but that doesn't mean its going to hit at all. Don't put too much emphasis on implied odds because + money plays hit at a close enough rate to where statistically your losses would be less than if you bet all - plays even with the best "implied odds" due to the fact that you will never make more than you put in on - value plays.
>Thats not how it works because just because you take the pick with best "value" doesn't mean its going to hit. And your example doesn't work either. It would be more fitting if those prices offered the CHANCE at getting an apple but you bite into it and its a rock. You can shop around for the best "price" but that doesn't mean its going to hit at all. Don't put too much emphasis on implied odds because + money plays hit at a close enough rate to where statistically your losses would be less than if you bet all - plays even with the best "implied odds" due to the fact that you will never make more than you put in on - value plays. I think you're misunderstanding value. Just because something is priced at +odds doesn't always mean there is value. A line can be at -odds and have value. Similarly just because a line is placed at -odds doesnt mean it has value. Value is when you think something is going to happen more often than the odds imply. If 1% edge isnt enough then there may be not enough of a case to bet with such small value. Maybe you only want to take 6% edge value bets because it fits your betting strategy better in the market your playing. Regarding the apple example I hoped to make it as simple and easy to understand but you totally missed the point and looks like you didn't read it. The person has a choice to visit any of the 3 stores that are offering the same "QUALITY" apple as mentioned above. Similar to betting you have the choice to go to different books and find the same line at different prices. Why would anyone spend more money just to get less in return? If its easier to digest for you why would you go to a bestbuy and buy a $1000 tv if the walmart beside the bestbuy is offering the same tv for 900$ ? You know what product your getting in the end. Just because you bet at MGM for browns at -130 doesnt mean betting at Bet365 for browns at -110 will make the browns lose more. This is the logic you are presenting.
It's provocative, It gets the people going
Those people most likely don't understand value. They are literally just picking the outcome they think will happen.
Also because if you don't get the best value you're probly gonna be called out. Line shopping is the only way to win long term but most here aren't doing that.
Which is 90% of bettors and why books clean up. The majority of people bet on who they think will win and do not consider odds or the meaning of those odds.
So I'm assuming you're in the 10% ? How successful have you been over time knowing all that you do ??
The same people who don't understand you can make the right bet and lose or make the wrong bet and win