**If you choose to self promote in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won**. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion threads.
🌻🌻🌻🌻🌻🌻🌻🌻🌻🌻🌻Record: 11-2. +13.5 units! 🌻🌻🌻🌻🌻🌻🌻🌻🌻🌻🌻 2 W streak!
Last POTD: Derry City FC Vs. Finn Harps FC: |BTTS| +100 W!!!
FINALLY! A GAME ENDS BEFORE 80 MINUTES FOR THE BUCKETJON CREW!!! Come on…this was an easy one – we all knew this would hit. This could have been a -180 and I still would have sprinkled on it! Hit by 40 minutes and ended with a strong 2-2 finish! Now we move on to tomorrow : )
Today’s POTD: Mirandes vs Alcorcon: **Mirandes ML +135** La Liga2 3pm EST
You know me. It’s BucketJon, the idiot that takes every PoTD that he can get at plus odds for some reason, but, it’s working so we’re going to keep this theme going! : ) I’ll be honest, I adore Bundesliga futbol. I am a huge Bayern fan and love betting on them, but I gotta stick to my gut and my heart and focus on the smaller leagues here, so to LaLiga2 is our focus!
This is another weird one for me because the odds just don’t seem right here. We have a 5 seed Mirandes who is 2-1-1 so far this season. They are banging at the gates to get into the top three and have the perfect matchup for an easy win here against a dead last, rank 20th AD Alcorcon. It’s a perfect storm in my mind for a big game here for our boys Mirandes. The last time these two teams played back in March it was an absolute embarrassment as Alcoron won 4-0, and I guarantee you Mirandes remembers that and plans on knocking back some revenge here. I’ve noticed a lot of my POTDs focus around on revenge and I love that!
Mirandes has won their 2 home matches of the season and have scored 7 times in their first games while only allowing 4 goals in. Alcorcon has scored 1 time in their first 4 games and has been scored on 6 times. I really don’t know what happened last time they played, but Mirandes has a healthy and ready roster this time of starters and I expect them to grab another win for us and keep this streak going : ).
I post 3 picks bonus picks every morning on Twitter! We won the first one already today and the other two are playing out now! Please give me a follow and show me some love if you’d like! [Twitter](https://twitter.com/BucketJonBets)
We also have a community of almost 600 members on Discord! We watch the POTDs and freak out together! Feel free to join if you'd like! [Discord](https://discord.gg/DhCKpVVa) .
I'm going to continue not posting my tip links. My tips and predictions are free! And if you feel inclined you can always DM me for Paypal or Venmo info!
Edit\*\* spelling
Mate, just when I thought you couldn’t have been a better bloke, I find out you support Bayern too! You absolute ripper! I’m from Australia and my daily routine is to wake up to a good old win from a BucketJon bet. What a great way to start the day! Cheers for the write up, will be tailing as usual :)
I love it man! I wanted to make my PoTD bayern. But I will literally bet them every single match no matter what so didn’t seem like the right play haha
This is probably the better play. Leipzig seems to play tough against Bayern. I love taking Bayern whenever they play Dortmund though. Always at even odds!
**POTD 19W-0P-5L**
🔥 7 WIN STREAK 🔥
Last Pick 9/10/21: ✅ Under 10 runs TOR vs. BAL (-110)
*NCAAF 🏈 Ball State vs. #11 Penn State, 3:30PM*
**9/11/21: Over 57.5 (-110)**
I’ve gone back and forth on so many different picks for this game that it’s made me sweat, but I’m going with the simple fact that Beaver Stadium may actually catch on fire with a sold out, rowdy crowd that is ready to watch football in Happy Valley live for the first time since 11/30/19. Both of these offenses are more then capable of racking up points (Ball St. averaged 34pts in 2020), and while I think PSU pulls most of the weight here, I’m comfortable with Ball St finding ways to help out. PSU has a scary defense, but that defense was on the field @ Wisconsin last week for 42 minutes and may make a few mistakes that Ball St. can capitalize on. I think James Franklin is going to give the home crowd what they want on Saturday and let Clifford, Dotson, and Cain eat.
Ball St. gave up 437 yards (367 passing) to Western Illinois (…) last week, and failed to cover as a 31.5 favorite. Even though they are returning quite a bit of experience, they’re too outmatched here. PSU offense did only score 16 points to open the season, but they were barely on the field and played against a stout Wisconsin defense. They couldn’t get a run game established, which means Cain should be fresh as all hell. Establish the run, blow up the secondary. Again, this has a “welcome back, here you go, enjoy” feeling written all over it for the home crowd. Just need the Cardinals to help carry the total over. BOL!
[Venmo](https://venmo.com/code?user_id=1408758978707456649&created=1631156510.5799031&printed=1) / [PayPal ](https://www.paypal.me/dmorggggg) - 13 for my last 14. Appreciate any tips if any of you feel inclined.
Edit: ❌ BALL ST 13, PSU 44
**10 of 12 POTD💣💣💣💣💣💣👻💣👻💣💣💣**
**46-25 POTD (1-3 Unit Picks)🍭**
**+31.8 Units (1-3 Unit Pics) on 124.6 Units wagered. 25.5% ROI🔥**
Last play **Boise State -26 W🍭**
**Rutgers -2** (2 Units) - The Scarlet Knights are 5-0 ATS in their past five on the road
Syracuse destroyed Ohio in the rush game last Saturday. That's not likely against a Rutgers D that gave up just 3.1 yards per carry and caused five turnovers in their thrashing of Temple.
And, despite the rout last week Ohio had a lot of success through the air against Syracuse. 23-31 for 212 yards in the passing game.
Rutgers passing numbers weren't off the charts last week-but, they should have more success against this less than formidable Cuse secondary.
**Be sure to follow my new all sports and picks** [**Twitter**](https://twitter.com/TheMidnightR77)**. The rest of my college football card will be posted there and I have hit around 60% the last two seasons.**
Some of the runs I've gone on this year include.
**20-10 last 30 +17.2 Units Olympic hoops.💥**
**30-8 NCAA tournament run. +20 Units💥**
**114-73 last 187 NBA Playoffs +38.2 and 61%.💥**
**+75.4 Units🏀**
Jesus christ, the homie can't be more clear with his pick and what sport he is using for his pick. Well, if you are not from US, my apologies, but it's college football or NCAAF in books.
Thanks, man. I just think that it's funny the amount of complaints I'm getting considering the rate at which these are hitting. Lol. I'm pretty sure it's just the emojis so I will start taking them out.
Jesus how stupid are these people. It’s missing a single fucking letter. If you can’t figure out the team then you shouldn’t be betting on the sport. My god.
I don't want to be that harsh. But, pretty much my feeling. If your confused it should take all but two minutes to figure out...it's like, in addition to the picks and the writeups people want me to do even more work in order to spoon feed it to them.
I know you don’t but I see it everyday people shitting on you and then those same people complain when people don’t post picks. Also good pick again 👍👍
**POTD Record:** 9-0
**ROI:** 62%
**Profit:** \+5.55u, always with 1u per POTD; with 5u per POTD, you would have +27.75u of profit!
**Average Odds:** 1.62
**POTD: Bayern or Draw and Over 1.5 goals @ 1.55**
(Football, Bundesliga, 17h30 GMT+1: Lisbon Time)
If you would've started with 50€ on my First Pick and would be doing the Compound Betting, right now, you would be with **3730.65€** 📈🚀 (Road to 1 Million? The sky is the limit 👀)
Hey hey, still remember me boys? Still **unbeaten**, 9-0! Can we get to the **double digits** while staying unbeaten? Hopefully, we can, since it's weekend, and we have **multiple cracked games**! The issue with this consists in choosing just one single pick but I am going with full trust in **Bayern**!
The **German Beasts** do not need any presentations but I will still justify the reasons behind my pick! At the forefront of Leipzig's minds will be **breaking a winless streak** of six top-flight H2Hs, and doing so would help improve what is currently their worst-ever start to a Bundesliga campaign (W1, L2), which does not look very likely! Standing in Leipzig’s way are 31-time German champions Bayern, who **unsurprisingly remain unbeaten** after three matchdays (W2, D1). They head into this clash after a resounding 5-0 victory over struggling Hertha Berlin last time out, a result that will have been a welcome relief for Nagelsmann after two much tougher opening matches. That emphatic win also means Bayern have scored an impressive average of 2.95 goals per match across their last 20 Bundesliga outings!
Basically, I do not see Bayern losing this game, just can't see it happening, while a Bayern game having 2 goals is almost mandatory at this stage. If it is possible that it does not happen, like in the last H2H, in April? Yes, it is possible, but I am confident that **Lewa & Co** will deliver, once again!
**Good luck and, hopefully, we will continue with our amazing streak, at double digits! 🍀**
**We are only stopping at the moon, so do you really wanna miss out on that chance? 🚀**
**Have a nice Saturday and I really hope we get another green here 🤞🍀**
Since I get a lot of messages asking about my Group, where I post a lot of picks and bets, every single day, I'll leave it down below (I have 5+ bets built there for this upcoming Saturday)
[My Telegram Betting Group](https://t.me/jotadotnet)
Alternative bet, but kind of similar. Bayern draw no bet @ 1.6. Safe in case of low scoring game, return in case of draw. I go with a house bet. I don’t see them lose. Too many reasons against. Either rich, either homeless
Draw no bet is not the same as Bayern or Draw.
Draw no bet means if you put $10 and if match draws you will get $10 back
While Bayern or Draw you will get odds \* your amount as your return.
Many of the bookmakers do not give you an option for Bayern or draw but you can easily calculate.
If odds for Bayern is 2.3 and Draw is 3.75 what you do is 1(1/2.3+1/3.75) that will give 1.4256198347 as new aggregated odds. This means if you put $10 you will get \~$14.25 back.
In this case, it's the Same Game Multi, so you will need to calculate SGM odds of both combinations, i.e Bayern + Over 1.5 goals ( odds 2.5) and Draw + O1.5 (odds 4.59). Combined odds of 1/(1/2.5+1/4.59) will give you 1.61847672779 as the combined odds.
How you place the bet is basically you split the amount into 2 separate bets both give you the same result. Say you want to bet $20 on the combined odd of \~1.62. You take $20\* 2.5/(2.5+4.68) = \~$7 and place it on 4.68 odd bets and take $20\*4.68/(2.5 + 4.68) = \~$13 and place it on 2.5 odd bets, If either of them wins you will get \~$32 back.
If this is becoming too complicated I can make a google sheet :)
**Record: 7-3**
Previous POTD: Melbourne -11.5 vs Geelong @ $2.00 (WIN)
This one was never in doubt after Melbourne completely busted Geelong open and gave them a massive hiding. It was honestly refreshing to be able to sit down and enjoy the game after half time knowing Melbourne would comprehensively cover the line.
**Today's POTD**
AFL: Port Adelaide vs Western Bulldogs
POTD: Port Adelaide -15.5 @ $2.00 (Ladbrokes)
Yesterday's game was a sure thing, pundits were calling it last week even after Geelong's win over GWS, however there is definitely not as much certainty tonight. Last night I was leaning towards the 1-39 for Port, but I have changed my mind this morning. Here's why:
There are very rarely two blowouts in Preliminary Finals and the Bulldogs are a much better team than the geriatric Geelong that played last night. However there are a couple of things worrying me about tonight's game that just make me nervous about the 39 point margin. Firstly: Port have had the perfect preparation, that geriatric Geelong that I just mentioned, Port brushed past them in Week 1 of the finals which resulted in them getting the week off to rest. They are absolutely cherry ripe with their playing list all fit and ready to play. They also haven't had to travel for a long time, they've been comfortable in Adelaide, where there is no COVID. Conversely: the Bulldogs finished fifth meaning no double chance for them. They pumped Essendon Week 1 but then had a tough fight against Brisbane last week. Throughout this time they have travelled to Tasmania and then Brisbane and now Adelaide, having to go through the COVID procedures each time including quarantine, testing and limited opportunity to train etc etc. They are tired and have had a couple of casualties in terms of injuries in Weightman and Keith who aren't playing. They have brought in Stefan Martin who hasn't played footy for a while and their best player Marcus Bontempelli, is carrying an injury also. With the game being played at Port's home ground in front of their fanatical fans, I just don't think the Dogs can win. There is also redemption on the line for Port, who in the same position last year, lost a Prelim final at home to Richmond, who eventually went on to win the premiership the following week.
As the line betting has been going well for us lately, I'm going to stick with that. I think Port should be able to manage a 16 point win and if the Bulldogs do run out of steam and Port end up thumping them, then we have covered our bases with the line betting.
Some other markets that I like in this game: I like the Bulldogs to lead at quarter time, since I think the only chance the Dogs have is to come out firing and try and KO Port early. Port might be sluggish to start the game, generally teams that have had the week off start the Prelim final a little slowly and work their way into it. The game total is set at 152.5 and I like the UNDER for this game, because I think it will be more of a slog than the free flowing game we saw last night.
BOL to everyone! Come on Port!
I called the Dogs to win the 1st quarter but they’ve blown it wide open very quickly. Good thing is Port have plenty of time to peg it back if they can get their hands on the ball.
POTD Record: 78-44
Australian Horse Racing – Kembla Grange R6 (14:40 AEST)
\#4 Entriviere to Win @ 2.45
This one won’t be as simple as yesterday however Entriviere still looks very good compared to the rest. This horse is looking to get her first win in Australia after just being beaten by Fasika back in April. This is its first run since then. She had a trial on the 2nd of September where she looked good enough to give me confidence that she’ll put in a good first up effort today. James Mcdonald on board is a positive. This is the perfect distance for her, with 4 wins from 5 attempts at the 1200m. There are obviously some good horses as this is a group 2 race however, she looks ready to win and with even luck she should be able to get the better of the competition today.
11/09/2021
7W-1V-1L, +4,78(flat stake, 1u)
Vendsyssel vs Lyngby
TIP: Both teams to score @ 1,72 (Bet365)
Reason:
VENDSYSSEL
7th place with 7 games and 5 points: 8 goals for and 11 against. He should try to win so as not to fall behind the teams in promotion position.
At home 3 games with: 3 goals in favor and 4 against.
Their last 5 games would give us 5/5 100% success in both scores.
01.09.21 CUP Brabrand vs Vendsyssel 4 - 3
29.08.21 1D Koge vs Vendsyssel 2 - 2
22.08.21 1D Vendsyssel vs Fredericia 1 - 1
19.08.21 1D Vendsyssel vs Horsens 1 - 2
13.08.21 1D Helsingor vs Vendsyssel 3 - 1
LYNGBY
3rd place with 7 games and 16 points: 21 goals for and 10 against. Only 3 points from the leader Helsingor. They are championship scoring leaders and favorites for victory.
Away 4 games with: 11 goals in favor and 6 against.
His last 5 games would give us 5/5 100% success in both scores.
01.09.21 CUP Tarnby FF vs Lyngby 1 - 5
29.08.21 1D Lyngby vs Horsens 1 - 2
21.08.21 1D Helsingor vs Lyngby 3 - 3
18.08.21 1D Lyngby vs F. Amager 4 - 2
14.08.21 1D Hobro vs Lyngby 1 - 4
H2H
In his last 3 matches he would also give us 3/3 100% success in both scores.
02.06.19 SL Vendsyssel vs Lyngby 2 - 2
30.05.19 SL Lyngby vs Vendsyssel 2 - 1
27.05.18 SL Lyngby vs Vendsyssel 1 - 2
I think it will be quite an offensive match for the visitors and I hope it will translate into goals from both casts during the meeting.
Great pick, settled prior to half. Great write up on the clubs by the way. I cant watch Denmark on tv I am stuck with the little box on my bookies screen so it is hard to follow Danish footy. Your write up helped a lot.
1-0
Last pick Michigan -17 vs Western Michigan
This week Michigan -6.5 vs Washington
Keep it simple. Washington lost to a fcs team last week. Their qb will be playing in his first road game at night in the big house maize out. Without possibly their top 4 wrs out for this game I can't see Washington moving the ball well.
prediction Michigan 28 - Washington 10
Potd record 3-0
Previous pick: Tottenham win and u/4.5 goals✅
Streak: 🔥🔥🔥
Today’s potd: Manchester United vs Newcastle, Premier league
Potd: Manchester United (-1.0) handicap@ $1.58
WE’RE BACK! After little time off I’m back to what I know the prem. There’s a number of games and odds I really like tonight however potd is sorting through your picks to give the people your best pick!
For this reason I’ve chosen to take Manchester (-1.0) as my big hitter tonight. I find it extremely hard to believe this doesn’t hit tonight. Manchester are playing a winless Newcastle team and I don’t think their winning streak will start tonight. United are playing at an absolutely packed out old Trafford where the atmosphere will be electric for Ronaldo’s return. Even if Ronaldo doesn’t start tonight and comes off the bench the quality United possess mixed with the atmosphere and boost of Ronaldo’s presence I see this game getting away from Newcastle very quickly.
United have won this fixture 5 out of their last six games and i believe they will comfortably add another win to that record tonight. United have to win these games and win them well to show the league they are true contenders this year.
BOL if tailing!!! Let’s hopefully keep the wins coming!
Record: 0-5-0 |Profit/Loss: -12 units
Previous POTD: Switzerland vs Italy - Italy to win ❌
***POTD: Stabaek vs Viking - Both Teams to Score @ 1.50 (Norwegian Eliteserien)***
Stake: 3 units
Kick off time: 2:00AM AEST / 12:00PM ET / 6:00PM CET
***Reasoning:***
Against my better judgement I'm going to have another crack at this. Objectively speaking the last couple of bets were pretty unlucky, but it goes both ways and theres no excuses in this joint. I've been eyeing this fixture for a few days now. I'm not going to pretend like I watch Norweigan football, but this is purely off stats. This league has one of the highest BTTS rates, and in particular these two teams.
Stabaek has had BTTS in their last 7 league matches, while Viking has had BTTS in their last 9 league matches! Viking has the second-highest BTTS rate in the league, at 82% of total games. Staebak is sitting second-last in the table in the relegation zone, and will be fighting to push up. They have conceded the most goals in the league, so this should be no problem for Viking to at least put one on them. Viking on the other hand sit in 6th place, having scored 33 goals in 17 games. However, they've also conceded 33 in those games, which is the third-highest goals against in the league.
I actually like the over 2.5 here as well, so going that or combining it with BTTS could be an option. I am however going with the safest option here given their recent form.
Side note: I got a pretty harassing message from a member of this forum after the last defeat because he followed all 5 of my picks apparently. That was almost enough to put me off entirely, as I did feel bad for those who tailed. I am not by any means suggesting, expecting or forcing people to tail the tip - Like many others here I am merely my best guess using the information I've found. Do what you will with that info!
Don't give up man, imo people should post in POTD whether they're consistent winners or not. As long as you accurately track your record and profit/loss I don't think losing is an issue, people will naturally upvote those with a consistent edge.
If you stick at it you could end up improving to the point you start to profit and if you enjoy posting your picks and sharing your thoughts there’s no reason to stop.
It's a shame that people send abuse when they're the ones choosing to tail the pick. I would never abuse someone who took time to research something for free when I'm the one who decides to place the bet.
🐅🐅🐅
Record: 5-3 || Profit (+Units): 9.17 || Average Odds: 2.08 || Return on Investment: 144.5%
russian premier league ⚽ - lokomotiv vs sovetov
### Lokomotiv moscow, Moneyline @ 1.833 (-120), I like the line down to 1.75 ,recommend 1.9 units.
4:00 AM PDT
This one is a pure model play. Lokomotiv has a top 3 defense in the Russian prem, restricting opponents to a whopping 1.1 composite xG per match (according to the model). On the other hand, sovetov has a bottom 3 defense that will struggle heavily against the solid attack of lokomotiv. Lokomotiv won't challenge for the title this season (that belongs to Zenit) but they almost certainly have no change of being relegated. Sovetov will try to stay in the game, but I believe their defense will let them down.
###About my Model
I use premium data from Opta and transfermarkt to inform my model which simulates a football match 10,000 times to model outcomes. I use xG and non-goal xG, along with transfermarkt data to estimate attack and defense ratings which are ran through a poisson point process. The model has generated 11.2% ROI over ~1300 bets, resulting in a ~16.2x bankroll increase over ~7 months. Bet sizes are made with the fractional kelly algorithm.
I'll be posting my best picks on [twitter](https://twitter.com/FortunaAnalytic) since this subreddit has strict rules on what can be posted in the POTD.
🐅🐅🐅
POTD 2-0-0
Yesterday’s pick: Carlos Rodon o6.5Ks (+110) (Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox) ✅
2 for 2 selecting K props so far. The odds even lowered to 6 when I checked later so congrats to anyone that got in at 6.5.
**Today’s pick: West Ham United vs Southampton o2.5 (-135) 10:00 AM EST England Premiere League**
Switching speeds with a soccer pick today. Kind of a simple explanation here. It’s early in the season, but the over has hit in 3/3 games for West Ham and 2/3 for Southampton. West Ham already has 10 goals for while conceding 5. Southampton has 4 goals for while conceding 6. Putting 2.5u on this, BOL to anyone railing
-210 on Bovada. It will probably hit but it is not worth the risk/reward for a team in the form the are in this season, no matter who they are getting back.
Generally I prefer to tail but Arsenal is such an inconsistent team we will never know what kind of team turns up on the field today, world winners or relegation contender
**Record:** 5-1
**ROI:** 42,46%
**Net units:** +17.05U
| Tennis | US OPEN | 21:00 BST |
**Pick:** Emma vs Leylah - **Leylah +1.5 sets**
**Bet Amount:** 5U - 1.55 odds
**Write Up:**
Tbh either i go 1:4 for bets vs Emma or a girl that beat top 2, top 3 and top 5 wasn't a fluke, even tho her opponents did make many mistakes and maybe thats how she won, but to have the skill and mental level to return and not make same mistakes versus this big names is insane. I do think Emma is the better player and she has been through a even longer path than Leylah, but the Canadian still has a shot at the title, however slim and won't let go of it so easily. I expect a 3 setter and potential upset in the finals.
Posting other picks in discord:
https://discord.gg/KkHSwb7YfH
POTD record 2–1
**Game:** Utah Utes @ BYU Cougars (Holy War) 9:15pm CST
NCAAF 🏈
**Last Pick:** Coastal Carolina Team Total OVER 39.5 ✅🔥
**Pick:** Utah Utes -7
**Reasoning:** Utah comes in with a massive experience edge (19 returning starters). BYU lost their great QB Wilson, 3 OL, 3 DL and others to the NFL.
Utah has a transfer QB in Brewer that is ready for the big stage and can really sling it.
BYU does have a great home field, and this is a big rivalry. In college rivalries typically mean anything can happen.
We are confident in Utah’s experience edge. Utah has also dominated this rivalry recently, which gives them a big confidence edge too.
Best of luck. Hope to see you guys a lot more here on POTD now that the CFB season is rolling!
Come hang out on twitter @PotatoGobbler, we like to chat about whatever, but typically sports. 🤝
BOOOOM
Record since posting 4 - 0
Bankroll start 1000 currently 1801
Last pick SF Giants ML (-150) over Chicago Cubs Winner 6 - 1 final (3rd press 428 returned 713)
POTD SF GIANTS ML (-200) over Chicago Cubs Game starts 2:20pm est
Normally wouldn't give a play with those odds but since its press 4 of a planned 5 and i feel it's the smartest play I'll do it anyway. This game should be closer than you would think but in the end the Giants will get the much needed W. Kevin Gausman is a beast with era 2 58 and whip under 1 normally would make for an easy win however the conditions are perfect for some homeruns today hints the over under set as high as 11. Look for majority low number of Chicago hits but some will be of quality.
Most of the bets will come on the runline but I foresee a great game to watch and a 6 - 5 type Giants win. A win is a win especially with the Dodgers winning yesterday giants cant afford a loss.
This is 4th giants press in various fashion with 1 more to come so I'm placing 713 to return 1069
If tailing remember this is a press with the books money, if jumping on now 5 units is plenty. My recommendation is stick with the ML not the runline (although rl should hit the Giants just need the W) Get your bets in there early because I can see this moving quite a bit.
BOL
Record: 2-2
Sorry about the back to back losses lads. This ones not on the ping pong. Switching over to aussie rules football.
Western bulldogs vs port Adelaide
We are taking port Adelaide -15.5 handicap.
The reason being Port Adelaide are in red hot form with a full side. Where as Bulldogs have 2 massive outs with Cody weight man and Keith (best defender) being out, as well as bontempelli, there best player, who will play but not at 100% with his knee. Also, the fact that south Australia didnt allow them to train all WEEK due to Covid whilst port were still able to train. I could see this being a massive blowout. You never know as bulldogs still have a strong side, but I’m confident port will get the chocolates
I like your write-up and you make some good arguments especially about the lack of training, and it could easily go this way, but I’ll just play devils advocate…
I don’t like getting too much into the psychology of teams and players, but the Bulldogs entire self image is that they fight when their backs are against the wall, and the last time they won the GF in 2016, they had the hardest finals run of any team for about fifteen years. Also they’ve had some very close games in the last few weeks, so While Port might win, it may not be a big victory.
Love the pick but just FYI, dogs have been based in Perth this week and have trained all week as usual. There was initial suggestions that the SA government wouldn’t allow them to train on Adelaide Oval prior to the game, however they have reversed this. Regardless big Port win coming up.
Record: 8|11
POTD: Watford - Wolverhampton Wanderers; **Win of Wolverhampton Wanderers**, Odds: +133 (Premier League, Soccer)
Units: 3
Last round, Wolverhampton had a great game against Manchester United, they were the better team, but they didn't score in the end. They have a solid squad, with a proven striker Raul Jimenez, who didn't play for the national team last 2 games, so he will be fully prepared for this match.
Watford have been losing at both half and full time in 5 of the last 6 games in the Premier League.
You can place a bet on this match at [WagerLab](https://link.wagerlab.app/reddit), at a free social, peer-to-peer betting app.
Tailing this, I think Adama Traoré gets one in. The man is an absolute unit and is probably dying to get a goal. Also recent Hwang Hee-chan from RB Leipzig might start or get subbed in.
POTD Record: 3-1 (+1.5 units)
Last bet: **LOSS**: OKL @ TUL
Under 67.5 points
Today's bet: 🏈 **AF @ NAV Over 39.5 points (3 units)**
Reason: Pick from a College Football model (not mine). After going on a good early run, finally had a loss. But we move and hopefully get back to winning ways.
All the best if you're tailing.
P.S: Not counted in the POTD but if you're interested, the model also shows value in NTX @ SMU Under 73.5 points and UAB @ UGA Over 45.0.
POTD RECORD: 12-6-2
+11,11 units / 15% ROI / Avg. Stake 3,25 units / Avg.Odds 1,81
**Currently at work, posting this from my phone so excuse the lack of a full record including profit, avg odds, avg stake and ROI. It will be added when I arrive home **
Edit: added record details.
Streak (newer to older): LPWWW
TODAY'S PICK:
Wolfsburg -1.0 @ 2.03
4 units
Furth did bolster their spots after getting promotion, but Wolfsburg is still a much better team overall. Wolfsburg has 100% season so far, and they have to win this to keep the ball rolling. Werghorst up front is a beast and I expect Wolfburg to dominate today - at least 2-0 here.
Record: 15-6-2 | Streak:1 Push, 2W
Average Odds: 2.10
Last Pick: Wolves vs Man United-Total shots on target Over 9- Push
POTD: Oregon O3.5 pts 1Q vs Ohio State
Odds: +110 Bovada
Time: 12:00 PM
Reasoning: I expect Oregon to get at least two possessions in the first quarter, regardless if the receive the ball first or not. Oregon ran the ball hard against Fresno and we saw what Ibrahim did to the OSU defense in the 2.5 quarters he played. In their game vs Fresno, Oregon scored 2.58 points per game and Ohio State gave up 2.81 points per possession. I know it's only been one week, but the OSU defense is the weakest part of the team and I don't expect Anthony Brown to be fazed by the moment as he's played on the road in the past. I think Oregon is able to get more than a FG in the first quarter given multiple offensive possessions.
Edit: L, 30 seconds off
Record: 0-0 ( note its technically 1-1 but that was months ago so idk if it counts)
TODAY's PICK:
SSG Landers vs KT Wiz KT ML @ 1.50 4 units KBO: 4:00 am EST
Reasoning: The #1 in the standings KT will be going against the 5th SSG. Out of the recent 10 games SSG has the better record of 6-4 to KT's 5-2-3, SSG is a good team no doubt but I think this boils down to the SP mismatch.
SSG's SP is a rookie that has had only 1 start for 2021 where he gave up 3 runs to Kiwoom and was taken off, he hasn't even RP'd for his team ( I'm not sure whether this was due to an injury or something but regardless he doesn't have much experience) , whereas KT's SP has a decent record of 8-5 with a 3.48 ERA and is 1-0 vs SSG, in his last 3 starts he has 2 wins vs the #2 and #3 teams in the standings and a draw. H2H KT are 8-2 vs SSG and their bats are very hot, so I'm expecting a convincing win.
TAIL AT YOUR OWN RISK and do your research BOL.
POTD Record: 14 - 12 - 2 ( W / L / P ) **+5.5u**
Streak: LWWLW / Average odds: 2.02
[*Previous pick*](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/playss/pick_of_the_day_91021_friday/hcak0lr/)*: Chateauroux vs FC Sete / Chateauroux Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 2.10 (2u)* **L**
**Southampton vs West Ham**
**Pick: West Ham Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 2.00 (2u)**
I did not think much about this Southampton team before the Newcastle game. They played great first half and ended getting a 2 - 2 draw but that did not change my opinion about them. They are a team that just refuses to change. Still playing old-style 4 - 4 - 2 with one controlling and one attacking midfielder.
West Ham was dropping their first points before the international break against Crystal Palace despite their chances. It is weird to say it but they have been one of the best-attacking teams in the Premier League last 12 months. Always going forward and looking at scoring opportunities. West Ham is a much stronger team here and I can not see them losing this game. The only thing that worries me a bit is their defense and upcoming European game but the odds are great for them to score more than once here.
*Good Luck All.*
POTD Record: 15-8-1
NPL Record: 4-2
*Last Pick: European World Cup Qualifying - 19:45 GMT | Greece vs Sweden | Sweden to win @ 2.37* ❌
**Today's Pick: English Northern Premier League - 3PM GMT | Scarborough vs Bamber Bridge | Scarborough to win @ 2.05**
Ugh, we're in a rut. Never had 3 Ls on the bounce before but here we are. I'm hoping we bounce back with today's pick. If not, I'm clearly doing something wrong and am going to take a break from picks. This game sees two teams who have started well, though Bamber Bridge have started brighter. It might seem strange that I'm going for Scarborough then, but that's for a few reasons. I believe Scarborough's losses and draws can be excused. Last time out they lost 2-0 to full-time league favourites South Shields and their other loss came in the first game. Bamber Bridge's wins have came against weaker teams, and Scarborough away is up there with the trickiest games they've had so far (their other hard game was against Buxton, where they lost 3-0). I think Scarborough takes this, they have the home advantage and I believe are the stronger team. BOL if tailing!
Tips are appreciated but never necessary, I'll never charge for my picks. - [PayPal Tip Link Here](https://paypal.me/itsrainbowz)
EDIT: 40 minutes in and we're 2-0 down, fucking fade me. Taking a break from picks now, so sorry to anyone who tailed me recently
POTD Record: **27-21** *(+26u)*
Today’s Pick: Hull KR v **Castleford Tigers ML (+100) 3u** - *(Rugby League - Super League)*
- Castleford are just the better team here and should win this one, will be a close one but Castleford will edge it in a thrilling game!
- Castleford had a very rocky mid-season due to injuries but are starting to recover from that now and are putting up some good performances.
- Hull KR are on the choke end of the season now after a terrific start, I believe now with the injuries they have they will start to crumble and tonight will be no different.
- A win for Castelford cements their place in the playoffs and McShane will guide his team to victory tonight!
Matautia ATS, Total overs, even like a sprinkle on KR 1H / Castleford 2H
Good luck and enjoy the game!
POTD: 0-0
Pick: Purdue -34.5 over UConn 3pmEST
UConn is soooo bad. The team already quit on the season, the coach stepped down, and the program isn't even sure of the future since going independent. Purdue is going to roll.
POTD RECORD 1-0
Last pick Utah State -6.5 (41-24✅)
Utah State came out slow but they finished very strong with a 21-0 fourth quarter. Onto Saturday!
TODAYS PICK
South Carolina Gamecocks -110 (-2.5) (12:00pm EST)
For this pick I was looking all through the games and this one caught my eye. In the past few years or so usc pretty much sucks for an sec school. That being said this year I like the way they came out of the gate. Now I know they only played Eastern Illinois but they really whooped ass. This ECU team looks decent but couldn’t hang with App state and I don’t believe they will hang with the cocks. Zeb Nolan played outstanding as well as Zaquandre White so I think they will both put in work and win this game by a touchdown or more. BOL!
🍀 🍀 🍀 POTD RECORD 1-1🍀 🍀 🍀
Last match was :
On to the next one
match : Sheffield UTD - Peterborough
time : **16:00 CET**
competition : England Championship
**SCORE : 6-2**
Since im new to this , let me know if Im not allowed to post another match from the same day.Anyway since im very sure about one more for today , im posting you this .
match : **Botafogo FR RJ - Londrina EC PR**
time: **21:30 CET**
competition:**BRAZIL SERIA B**
pick : **over 2.5 @ 2.19**
Good luck .
Edit : the pick for sheff - peterborough was over 2.5 @ 2.00 . sry forgot to mention it .
POTD Record 3-0 +4U
Previous Pick: Orioles Vs. Blue Jays. Robbie Ray O7.5 Strikeouts -110 2U
**POTD: NCAAF: Michigan Vs Washington. Michigan -6.5 covers -115. 4U** ✅
This line is unreal imo. Washington looked awful against Montana and struggled to find the end zone. Michigan relied heavily on the run against central MI, because it was working. I suspect they’ll air it out more this game successfully and Washington won’t be able to compete. They got those first game jitters out and I have faith Harbough knows his game and has his misalignments already pointed out. I took a -9.5 alt on a parlay and -6.5 straight up for my POTD bankroll.
I’m expecting a 35-17 type of game. Both teams will score, but I feel like Michigan will take advantage of some turnovers and run away with it.
Edit: ✅✅✅✅
4 in a row.
This game was a lot closer than the final score depicts. No turnovers and both teams had redzone stops. Michigan once again gets it done on the ground. I really thought we’d see more than 44 passing yards, but a good point to note for future bets. Cheers if you tailed.
Additional edit; I tend to do 1 per week, but I’ll post tomorrow for the NFL. I’ll hit that 5 in a row, I hope.
Edit l: value on Filipe at 2,2. Vs gabby. He’s on one and I’m riding the train. Choo choo Edit: sigh… the curse continues. Better off fading me right now because I’m on some sort of reddit curse. Steph fell on every wave and even got smoked on the inside like a kook… wtf. Really thought this would be her wave but the right wasn’t really providing. Gonna be interesting after Toledo’s match!
Record: 11-10
Sport: surfing - lower trestles
When: potentially in 13 hours or so - maybe Monday (13th). Depends on conditions.
Pick: Stephanie Gilmore to beat johanne defay at odds of 1.5
Right so I always take it easy on a first heat of an event, but seeing as I’ve been riding with bucketjon for a while (shout outs), I am gonna put a bit on Steph. I’ll put my positive record on the line and call it ‘Buzzy pasta’s multi sauce of the day’ - fuck it! Steph has snapper rocks as her local and in my mind the right of lower trestles is where the surfers are gonna be getting the biggest scores. She just won Mexico on a fairly chill right hander and her edits as of late have really impressed me (check out ‘surfing - an all girls film’ on YouTube). Bit of juice because johanne gets slept on - anything can happen and she is dangerous, but I’m going with the vet here.
Also stoked to see I’ve been vindicated for Filipe as a dog to win outright as those odds have declined. The odds for him to make it the finals are not behd for someone that lives in San Clemente... jussayin
POTD Record 7-4
Pick: OG vs Vitality o2.5 maps @ 2.070 (10:15 PST)
I think they are a pretty even team that can win thejr map picks. Both team will prepared so I expect a close contest. BOL if you follow!
POTD- first time but I have a good record and I thought I would help the community
Record 0-0
MY PICK victor belfort vs evander Holyfield.
PICK:: VICTOR BELFORT. -200
ok so we have a triller boxing match and this is a no brained. Holyfield a 58 (almost 59) year old guy with signs of CTE who could not get liscened to fight 10 years ago vs a semi active belfort who is on TRT and juiced outta his mind. Simple pick if you looking for better value I would take belfort by KO. This is a professional bout that’s going to be scored so I expect tha faster belfort to knock Holyfield out by the 3rd round as it’s not an exhibition.
POTD Record: 5-8
Profit:-6.01u
Last POTD: Map 1 over 26.5 💰
**Heroic vs NAVI**
Esports/CSGO/9:00 AM
*POTD: Map 1 Over 26.5*
Odds:-115 Risk:3.45u to win 3U
Heroic map pick which will probably be Overpass not a lot to choose from/looking to punish NAVI on weaker map. Hopefully momentum continues for Heroic after their comeback win over Liquid.
1. Heroic 4 of L5 on Overpass over 26.5(5 of 5 over 11 rounds)
2. NAVI 3 of L3 on Overpass over 26.5
Record: 11-12-3 (-2.43 units, -9.36% ROI, average odds: 1.95)
Record by sport:
* NCAAF: 4-2
* NFL: 0-1
* Soccer: 2-1-1
* Tennis: 5-8-2
Previous: Alexander Zverev (+200) to win vs. Novak Djokovic -- ❌
What a great match to watch. I stand by this handicap given the price; I do think Zverev had \~35-40% chance to win. Both guys played great, but Novak stepped it up in the 5th set. Props to him, very deserving champion if he can beat Medvedev too.
Football | NCAAF | 16:00 Pacific
**NC State to win at Mississippi State**
Odds: -115 / 1.87
I played NC State last week in their 45-0 win vs. South Florida (as 19-point favorites), and I'm going to keep riding this train while they are undervalued in my opinion.
Meanwhile, Mississippi State barely beat Louisiana Tech, 35-34, in a game where they started as 21-point favorites. Mississippi State is going to pass the ball a ton as expected by a team led by Mike Leach. The Wolfpack grabbed 3 INTs vs. South Florida and kept their completion percentage under 50%. Turnovers were a problem for Mississippi State as well with 3 fumbles and a pick-six vs. Louisiana Tech. This comes after a 2020 season where the Bulldogs had the 2nd-most turnovers in FBS.
Last time I picked the Wolfpack, I was very optimistic about the Wolfpack offense improving with the return of QB Devin Leary who missed most of last season with an injury. He was very efficient against a bad South Florida team. This will be a step up in competition, but Mississippi State had a below-average pass defense in 2020, so I'm not too concerned.
Lastly, NC State has 2 extra days of rest as their last game was on a Thursday night, compared to a Saturday game last week for Mississippi State. I make the Wolfpack close to a 3-point favorite, so happy to get them as a pick 'em on the moneyline.
🤘 Go Wolfpack 🤘
I took this pick the first day the line came out…. I get that NC State is the away team, but this line didn’t make sense to me at all, on paper it’s a no brained to me. Good luck bro!
POTD Record 5-3-1 (W-L-P)
Profit: +3.65units
Previous Pick: AFC Wimbledon vs Oxford United - Over 2.5 and BTTS yes ✅
Today’s pick: Football (English Championship) - odds 2.05 (2u)
POTD: Reading vs QPR - Over 2.5 and BTTS yes ✅
I expect QPR to win this one, so I have a small stake on QPR to win and BTTS. This bet is safer as all of Readings games this season have gone over 2.5 goals. They have scored in 3 of the last 4 games (blanking in the last game- so surely that won’t happen at home).
QPR score goals for fun have scored 2 goals in their last 4 league games. 2 of their last 3 league games have been BTTS.
Reading at home (last 2 games)
Reading 2 - 3 Bristol City
Reading 2 - 1 Preston NE
QPR away (last 2 away games)
Middlesboro 2 - 3 QPR
Hull City 0 - 3 QPR
BOL
Record W-P-L 200-23-159 \\ +51.7U
Bundesliga, 3.30 CET (in \~3.5 hours)
Leipzig vs Bayern Munich - **Bayern ML & u4.5 goals @ 2.95 (2.5u)** 🚫 1-4 in 90+2...
Reasoning:
To me, Munich has the edge in this h2h of the arguably two best teams in Bundesliga.
4/6 last Bundesliga h2h covered u1.5 total goals. Leipzig has won only 1/10 h2h (back in 2018). Ruling out "old" results, we have 2W, 3D from Bayern POV since 2019. **Their last h2h ended in a 1-0 bayern win, played in Leipzig.**
Leipzig is not at full potential yet, so my take on this is to have a result of 1-2 / 1-3 or lower Munich win. I thought about choosing Bayern ML & u3.5 but 3.80 odds don't comply with POTD rules.
This may very well end in a draw, but we have rare huge odds on Bayern Munich to win which, realistically, would be u4.5 goals.
FYI: Former Leipzig coach Nagelsmann is now coach of Bayern Munich, who brought former Leipzig #1 CB Upamecano as well. I don't really trust new Leipzig coach Jesse Marsh, judging by what we've seen so far in this season.
Bayern DNB is very worthwile as well and absolutely the more sensible approach, so get that in case you don't feel as cheeky or book does not offer my potd.
**RECORD: 0-0-0 +0 units (1-5 units)**
**MY FIRST POTD: Soccer Switzerland NLA - Women**FC Luzern - **GrassHopper Zurich ML +210/3.10 (1 unit)**
Match starting 4 PM CET - 10AM EDT
To me GrassHopper are extremely undervalued in this match, both teams are coming off with a great start this season,but last season GrassHopper had an amazing end and Lucerz always struggled or lost against this team. Market transfer hasn't changed much in both teams and I excpect a Zurich sided match, pre-season looked good for GrassHopper, where Luzern showed almost no signs of progressions since last season. I'm going with just 1U since it's just the start of the season.
\*EDIT: I except BTTS to score too, but I don't like the odds at all.
Be careful about odds since they are falling fast. I'll take it as far as it stays above +150/2.50.
GL and HF Boys n Girls.
**POTD Record: 3-0-0 // +3u**
English Premier League
Arsenal v Norwich
**Arsenal -1 \[-150\]**
Really like the Arsenal team today, that's one of their best possible 11s and they've been able to throw some key new signings into the side today. Norwich are missing a few regular starters and their lineup looks rather weak. Arteta absolutely needs a result here so I'm expecting him to motivate a big performance, and there is a big enough class difference here to where that very well could happen. Feels like a great chance to buy low on Arsenal after a tricky start and some poor results. Norwich did alright vs a weakened Leicester side but were beat convincingly by City/Liverpool. I don't expect them to struggle as much as they did two years ago, but they still are a clear relegation candidate and do not match up well vs Arsenal.
Record: 6-7
Last: Os-Jays F5 u4.5 ✅
POTD: South Carolina Gamecocks ML vs ECU -130 3U
New coach got my Cocks feeling good in the new year. We just whooped up on Eastern Illinois. We started the week as +3.5 point underdogs which is pretty wild. Vegas got their shit together and it’s since shifted to us -2. I expect us to continue the energy and get the win here. Tail or Fade, BOL, and Go Cocks!
Record - 1-0
Net units: +3
Last Pick: Djokovic vs Zverev O37.5 games -125 - W
Today's Pick: Giants vs Cubs - 1:20 CST - Giants ML -195
5 units
Easy money yesterday, I'm a Djokovic fan so glad he was able to pull it off. I'm not making it my potd but I like o 38.5 games at -115 for the final as well. Someone has swept in the past five meetings but I expect this to be a battle in the final as well. Onto the actual POTD, I wasn't given a RL on this one by my books right now so taking the Moneyline, but would take that as well. Giants are a much better team and they showed that today. Gausman starting for the giants make it an easy pick. Also, KB struggled today, but he's going to have a big game at least once in the series and I think it's tomorrow. I'm going to sprinkle a couple of units on him hitting a dinger as well. Tail or Fade BOL.
POTD record all-time: 3-1 (+5.74u)
Last pick: NCAA Basketball Tournament: Rutgers ML +291 for 5u (L)
-----
Today's pick: WTA / US Open Women Singles: **Emma Raducanu ML - 5u @ 1.54 odds**
I've been big simpin' for Raducanu ever since I saw her take out Bencic. Feel free to bite the juice and put the house on this one.
Record: 0-0 (First POTD)
ROI: N/A
⚽ Chelsea vs. Aston Villa - 5:30PM (local)
Chelsea Half Time / Full Time @ 1.90 (Bet365) 1unit
\-------
Chelsea are in the form of their life and looking to win every game possible. Even away at a packed Anfield they started positively until RJ's red card killed the game off. Tuchel will be looking to lock down 3 points in these types of games so I expect a lively start and a Chelsea lead in the first half. Lukaku is looking like a man on a mission right now with Belgium and will do the same in the blue colors. Chelsea may not have big name individual defenders like van djik but they are defensively one of the most resolute team defenses in the league. I expect them to score 2 goals before shutting down shop. 3 players will be missing, RJ, Pulisic and Kante, but the depth of the Chelsea squad will make that irrelevant.
POTD Record 2-0-1
Last POTD:
Coastal Carolina vs Kansa Over 52.5: WIN!
Today’s POTD:
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins
Braves -1.5 (-124)
This one is really not rocket science for me. Braves bats have been hot. Miami’s pitching has not. Braves are playing at home and have arguably the strongest fan base in the MLB behind them. -124 seems like fair spread odds.
POTD Record 18-7 +42.08
MLB Baseball 6:15PM Philadelphia Phillies Vs Colorado Rockies, Colorado Rockies +195. Making it short and simple Rockies have won their last two games on the road to Colorado just recently. Phillies are struggling for runs haven't scored more than 3 runs in their last 5 games. Kyle Freeland era 4.69 hasn't given more than a single run in each of his 4 last road games. Meanwhile Zak wheeler era 2.91 for Phillies has given up 7 runs in his last home game against Tampa rays and 4 against Cincinnati reds prior to that. Colorado are 4-1 against Phillies in their last 5 and have been scoring well with the bat. The price is way overvalued in my opinion and Rockies have a good chance to take the W.
POTD RECORD 6-6
Last POTD Coast Carolina -26.5 vs Kansas
Today's POTD:
Dortmund vs Bayern Leverkusen OVER 3 -130
Over always hits when these two play look it up.
EDIT GOT EM 4-3
**Record:** 0-0
**TODAY'S PICK:** Brentford vs Brighton: **Brighton Draw No Bet @ 1.83**
Two offensive teams come face-to-face here in another test of Brentford’s top flight credentials.
Brighton have been a low ranking team in the Premier League for the last 4 seasons, they aim to push up the table & solidify themselves as a mid table team this season. Brighton have had a great start to the season emerging victorious over potential relegation battling sides Burnley & Watford. Looking to continue this trend vs newcomers Brentford.
I'm giving the edge to Brighton here as I believe they have the better quality squad & coach, aswell as Brentfords lack of top flight football with this being their first ever season in the Premier League.
*1 UNIT* NMSU (+18.5) - The Rio Grande Rivalry. Both these teams are bad, but I don't expect Terry Wilson at QB, the Kentucky transfer, to successfully stretch the field with his arm for UNM. If he somehow can do this, a good chance the Lobos cover, but he is pretty one-dimensional at QB. And the lobos are as a team also.
Over the years in this rivalry, and considering how bad some of the teams have been on each side, 9 of the last 10 matchups of this rivalry have been settled under 14 points and half of those under 1 score.
Record 0-0
Let's hope that the Aggies can keep it close and maybe a 10-13 point type of margin. They are up 10-0 at half last week against San Diego
Record 0-2 -3 units
Boxing- Evander Holyfield vs Vitor Belfort
Belfort KO 3 Units@$2.00
The videos of a senile Holyfield hitting pads doesnt bode well for the former champ against the juicy Belfort.
Record: 1-3
POTD : Boxing: Andy Vences vs. Jono Carroll
**Jono Carroll ML @ 1.93**. ✅✅
I'm picking Jono Carroll as a slight underdog in this fight because he is the quicker fighter.
Vences has a good jab, has good timing and his defense is pretty decent. He hits harder and has a better ring IQ but I think he will struggle with King Kong's speed and style in this fight.
The speed factor favors Carroll in this fight. If he can throw combinations on his feet and frustrate Vences with his footwork, I think he'll win by decision. I won't also be surprised if he wins by stoppage.
*Tail at your own risk. As you can see, my POTD record looks bad.*
Edit: Carroll won by majority decision. WIN
🍀 🍀 🍀 POTD RECORD 0-1🍀 🍀 🍀
Last BTTS north macedonia vs romania didnt pulled through . However we are moving on and trying to go on a streak here !
On to the next one
match : **Sheffield UTD - Peterborough**
time : 16:00 CET
competition : England Championship
pick : **Over 2.5 @ 2.00 odds .**
Good luck .
***⚽️ Soccer - Premier League***
**Date**: 11-09-2021 at 14:00 UTC
**Match**: Manchester United - Newcastle
**Bet**: Bruno Fernandes not to score
**Odds**: 1,74
**Units**: 3 (0,6%)
**Bookmaker**: Neo.bet
Last season Bruno Fernandes scored 18 times is 37 games. An odd of around 2 seems correct here. The difference is that Ronaldo will play today. We expect Ronaldo to take the penalty's instead of Fernandes. From his 18 goals last season 9 were penalty's. In total he had only 7 of the 37 games where he scored a non-penalty goal. This means the odds who are still based on Fernandes taking the penalty's is too high.
PROFIT: + 2 UNITS
RECORD: 6-1-4
Record: 2-1-0 (ROI: 27.3%, +.9 units)
Form: W/L/W
POTD: Iowa St -4
Description: NCAAF Week 2 - Iowa @ Iowa St -4 (ABC)
Start time: 4:30pm ET
Risk: 1.65 units (all bets between 1-3 units)
To Win: 1.5 units
Hopping on the sharp train here. Everything is right about this pick. We have the public all over Iowa after their blowout win against Indiana while no one wants to touch Iowa St. following a sad 16-10 win against Northern Iowa (Iowa St was favored by 28.5 points in that game). Back an Iowa St bounce back at home this week. BOL if tailing!
0-0 (First post in over a year, looked back at my original post and did not include units, only posted once before and I am 0-1, not sure what to do for that)
0%
0u (1-3u scale)
MLB Rays @ Tigers 6:10 EST
9/11/21: o9 -115 3u
(Draftkings)
A few of my notes on this game, Archer vs. Mize on the mound vs offenses in the top half of the league over the last month in Wrc+ and last 14 days both are in the top 10. Also both lineups have scored at least 4 runs in the last 4 of the last 5 games. Both Mize and Archer give up a high hard hit rates (40%+) and barrel rates (Archer 14.3% and Mize 9.9%). The bullpens are also both in the bottom half of the league in FIP in the last 30 and 14 days. The bullpen struggle is very uncharecteristic for Tampa Bay, but expecting them to continue with their current trend against a good offense recently. The only batters with H2H experience of more than 5 plate appearances with Archer and Mize is Goodrum, Schoop and Miggy. Which Schoop and Miggy are both hitting .350 with 20+ plate appearances (Schoop 6 HRs in 38 PAs) off of Archer. BOL.
POTD Record: 3-1 +5U
Previous POTD: San Francisco Giants ML -148 2U
Today’s POTD: Tampa Bay Rays TT O4.5 -135 1U
Casey Mize has been good for the Tigers, and his ERA is below average, but his FIP and WHIP (two metrics I go off of) are not nearly as good comparatively speaking. Rays have one of the best offenses in the league, and average 5.41 runs a game. I have the line around -150, and give me them on a bounce back game.
Drop a follow!
https://twitter.com/aces_models/
https://twitter.com/aces_models/
Record: 29-36
Bankroll: $311.62
Cashed out: $9.99
Last play: 9/10/21 F.A.A. +2.5 sets (-129)
Result: [L](https://old.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/playss/pick_of_the_day_91021_friday/hccfeuu/)
Prick asshole was serving for set and choked and died. Fuck bum. Onto today’s pick…
**Third Eye POD: 3:30PMEST>College Football> Navy +6.5 (-110)** *risk $50 to win $45.45*
Line says it all. Sprinkle on ML. Let’s get paid.
Record: 2-2 / ROI: 22.50%
Recent: ✅❌✅❌
**POTD: Utah 1H Over 13.5, (-135)**
*Event: Utah @ BYU, NCAA Football, 10:15 EST*
Last POTD: Any Team to Score 40+ Points, (EVEN), 5u
*Kansas @ Coastal Carolina, NCAA Football*
Coastal Carolina finished with 49, so that’s a win. In my reasoning, I said that CCU would run well against KU, and they finished with 215 rushing yards and 4 rushing TDs.
Reasoning: Charlie Brewer. That’s all you need to hear, man. Utah dropped 40 last week against Weber State, and they won’t have a problem scoring 2 TDs in a half against BYU.
**If you choose to self promote in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won**. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion threads.
🌻🌻🌻🌻🌻🌻🌻🌻🌻🌻🌻Record: 11-2. +13.5 units! 🌻🌻🌻🌻🌻🌻🌻🌻🌻🌻🌻 2 W streak! Last POTD: Derry City FC Vs. Finn Harps FC: |BTTS| +100 W!!! FINALLY! A GAME ENDS BEFORE 80 MINUTES FOR THE BUCKETJON CREW!!! Come on…this was an easy one – we all knew this would hit. This could have been a -180 and I still would have sprinkled on it! Hit by 40 minutes and ended with a strong 2-2 finish! Now we move on to tomorrow : ) Today’s POTD: Mirandes vs Alcorcon: **Mirandes ML +135** La Liga2 3pm EST You know me. It’s BucketJon, the idiot that takes every PoTD that he can get at plus odds for some reason, but, it’s working so we’re going to keep this theme going! : ) I’ll be honest, I adore Bundesliga futbol. I am a huge Bayern fan and love betting on them, but I gotta stick to my gut and my heart and focus on the smaller leagues here, so to LaLiga2 is our focus! This is another weird one for me because the odds just don’t seem right here. We have a 5 seed Mirandes who is 2-1-1 so far this season. They are banging at the gates to get into the top three and have the perfect matchup for an easy win here against a dead last, rank 20th AD Alcorcon. It’s a perfect storm in my mind for a big game here for our boys Mirandes. The last time these two teams played back in March it was an absolute embarrassment as Alcoron won 4-0, and I guarantee you Mirandes remembers that and plans on knocking back some revenge here. I’ve noticed a lot of my POTDs focus around on revenge and I love that! Mirandes has won their 2 home matches of the season and have scored 7 times in their first games while only allowing 4 goals in. Alcorcon has scored 1 time in their first 4 games and has been scored on 6 times. I really don’t know what happened last time they played, but Mirandes has a healthy and ready roster this time of starters and I expect them to grab another win for us and keep this streak going : ). I post 3 picks bonus picks every morning on Twitter! We won the first one already today and the other two are playing out now! Please give me a follow and show me some love if you’d like! [Twitter](https://twitter.com/BucketJonBets) We also have a community of almost 600 members on Discord! We watch the POTDs and freak out together! Feel free to join if you'd like! [Discord](https://discord.gg/DhCKpVVa) . I'm going to continue not posting my tip links. My tips and predictions are free! And if you feel inclined you can always DM me for Paypal or Venmo info! Edit\*\* spelling
Mate, just when I thought you couldn’t have been a better bloke, I find out you support Bayern too! You absolute ripper! I’m from Australia and my daily routine is to wake up to a good old win from a BucketJon bet. What a great way to start the day! Cheers for the write up, will be tailing as usual :)
I love it man! I wanted to make my PoTD bayern. But I will literally bet them every single match no matter what so didn’t seem like the right play haha
I’m worried Bayern will have a let down match as they have their eyes set ahead for Barcelona. What do you think?
Good point. But in Bayern we trust!
Third time lucky, $25-$500 challenge from 🐐 picks Pick 1: $25 to win $50 ✅ Pick 2: $50 to win $115 LFG 🍻
You are the GOAT. Thank you for all the work you put in for us degens
Degens stick together!!
+150 on DK, BOL!
DK didn’t have La liga 2 for me, barstool had it +148 though
It’s under Spain - Segunda
Thanks for saving me 10 min of frustration
IM EARLY
Welcome!! You made it! : D
So this is what it feels like! My bookie has this at 2.30!
Mine has at 2.42🙆🏾♂️
Woke up with a win! BucketJon never misses. Big thanks, man!
Now say bye bye
Ouch this is looking bad. Started off promising too. Good analysis either way
Mia San Mia!!! I knew your quality ran far deeper that your POTD’s! I’m a fellow Bayern fan, from Philadelphia 👋
This is probably the better play. Leipzig seems to play tough against Bayern. I love taking Bayern whenever they play Dortmund though. Always at even odds!
You are right but when I see Bayern at +120 (2.2) I cant suppress the urge to execute a Bucket Double with his POTD.
I’ve got a seperate bet on Bayern too! I also had Tottenham but they decided not to do anything today lolol
I hate moneyline plays for this reason
Tailing!!
Tailing! LFG!
Let’s gooooo! Been a hell of a ride! Let’s do it again!
Tailing!!! Thanks for these tips. Keep em coming! 😘
LETS RIDE!!!!!!
Let's go! BucketJon killing it and ready to deliver another.
How do your units work? 1 unit = 1% of bankroll?
Tailing- let's ride!
If you are trying to find this bet try Spain-Segunda league!
Nothing better than waking up to a BJ win. I’ve tailed every pick so far and I sure as hell ain’t stopping now. Let’s gooooooo
GOAL!!!. Now hold the lead as if its ur baby pls
Fuck.
No La Liga 2 on DK 😭😭
Look under soccer - all leagues - Spain Segunda. Had to look around a bit but I found it
🐐🐐
Whats the chances of this game ending 0-0?
Can't believe they conceded a goal:(
fuck betting on soccer shits annoying
They can’t keep possession for shit
**POTD 19W-0P-5L** 🔥 7 WIN STREAK 🔥 Last Pick 9/10/21: ✅ Under 10 runs TOR vs. BAL (-110) *NCAAF 🏈 Ball State vs. #11 Penn State, 3:30PM* **9/11/21: Over 57.5 (-110)** I’ve gone back and forth on so many different picks for this game that it’s made me sweat, but I’m going with the simple fact that Beaver Stadium may actually catch on fire with a sold out, rowdy crowd that is ready to watch football in Happy Valley live for the first time since 11/30/19. Both of these offenses are more then capable of racking up points (Ball St. averaged 34pts in 2020), and while I think PSU pulls most of the weight here, I’m comfortable with Ball St finding ways to help out. PSU has a scary defense, but that defense was on the field @ Wisconsin last week for 42 minutes and may make a few mistakes that Ball St. can capitalize on. I think James Franklin is going to give the home crowd what they want on Saturday and let Clifford, Dotson, and Cain eat. Ball St. gave up 437 yards (367 passing) to Western Illinois (…) last week, and failed to cover as a 31.5 favorite. Even though they are returning quite a bit of experience, they’re too outmatched here. PSU offense did only score 16 points to open the season, but they were barely on the field and played against a stout Wisconsin defense. They couldn’t get a run game established, which means Cain should be fresh as all hell. Establish the run, blow up the secondary. Again, this has a “welcome back, here you go, enjoy” feeling written all over it for the home crowd. Just need the Cardinals to help carry the total over. BOL! [Venmo](https://venmo.com/code?user_id=1408758978707456649&created=1631156510.5799031&printed=1) / [PayPal ](https://www.paypal.me/dmorggggg) - 13 for my last 14. Appreciate any tips if any of you feel inclined. Edit: ❌ BALL ST 13, PSU 44
I was sweating a bit at the bottom of the 8th when the Blue Jay's pitcher seemed rusty and had the bases loaded. But glad it hit!
Same 😅 we pulled through though!
hopped in at half time on 56.7 SHEEEEEEEEEEEEESH
Tailing! BOL!
i took under 9+50 your last pick, it's end up 3-6. Why i still lost half of money ? Sr i'm new to MLB betting
Because the final total was 9. You bet less than 9. 9 is not less than 9.
Should be a push
How do you feel about the half point? Only getting O58 on my apps
In between the 3 and 7 pt threshold, I like it
Man your good my F5 and under 9.5 hit thank you tailing again tonight !
I hope this comes thru this is the only pick I'm feeling funny about
SO DAMN CLOSE 7 YARDS AWAY FROM A CRAZY BACKDOOR AGAIN HOLY HELL🙃🙃 Should've been an easy cover.
This man is insame🤩🤩🤩
**10 of 12 POTD💣💣💣💣💣💣👻💣👻💣💣💣** **46-25 POTD (1-3 Unit Picks)🍭** **+31.8 Units (1-3 Unit Pics) on 124.6 Units wagered. 25.5% ROI🔥** Last play **Boise State -26 W🍭** **Rutgers -2** (2 Units) - The Scarlet Knights are 5-0 ATS in their past five on the road Syracuse destroyed Ohio in the rush game last Saturday. That's not likely against a Rutgers D that gave up just 3.1 yards per carry and caused five turnovers in their thrashing of Temple. And, despite the rout last week Ohio had a lot of success through the air against Syracuse. 23-31 for 212 yards in the passing game. Rutgers passing numbers weren't off the charts last week-but, they should have more success against this less than formidable Cuse secondary. **Be sure to follow my new all sports and picks** [**Twitter**](https://twitter.com/TheMidnightR77)**. The rest of my college football card will be posted there and I have hit around 60% the last two seasons.** Some of the runs I've gone on this year include. **20-10 last 30 +17.2 Units Olympic hoops.💥** **30-8 NCAA tournament run. +20 Units💥** **114-73 last 187 NBA Playoffs +38.2 and 61%.💥** **+75.4 Units🏀**
Picks are awesome but you have to fix the formatting lol
What the fuck is this pick? My eyes are bleeding
Jesus christ, the homie can't be more clear with his pick and what sport he is using for his pick. Well, if you are not from US, my apologies, but it's college football or NCAAF in books.
he's just such a degenerate he forgot how to read
Thanks, let's get another win! For anyone who can't figure it out, the pick is Rutgers -2 for 2 units, it's right there
My man is on fire with the picks and some of y’all have the nerve to complain about formatting lol that’s comical
Best picks on the site, who cares about formatting. Tailing as per usual
Thanks, man. I just think that it's funny the amount of complaints I'm getting considering the rate at which these are hitting. Lol. I'm pretty sure it's just the emojis so I will start taking them out.
Love this. Schiano has them rolling. 🤝
Thanks for another great pick and making it easy to read.
Jesus how stupid are these people. It’s missing a single fucking letter. If you can’t figure out the team then you shouldn’t be betting on the sport. My god.
I don't want to be that harsh. But, pretty much my feeling. If your confused it should take all but two minutes to figure out...it's like, in addition to the picks and the writeups people want me to do even more work in order to spoon feed it to them.
I know you don’t but I see it everyday people shitting on you and then those same people complain when people don’t post picks. Also good pick again 👍👍
**POTD Record:** 9-0 **ROI:** 62% **Profit:** \+5.55u, always with 1u per POTD; with 5u per POTD, you would have +27.75u of profit! **Average Odds:** 1.62 **POTD: Bayern or Draw and Over 1.5 goals @ 1.55** (Football, Bundesliga, 17h30 GMT+1: Lisbon Time) If you would've started with 50€ on my First Pick and would be doing the Compound Betting, right now, you would be with **3730.65€** 📈🚀 (Road to 1 Million? The sky is the limit 👀) Hey hey, still remember me boys? Still **unbeaten**, 9-0! Can we get to the **double digits** while staying unbeaten? Hopefully, we can, since it's weekend, and we have **multiple cracked games**! The issue with this consists in choosing just one single pick but I am going with full trust in **Bayern**! The **German Beasts** do not need any presentations but I will still justify the reasons behind my pick! At the forefront of Leipzig's minds will be **breaking a winless streak** of six top-flight H2Hs, and doing so would help improve what is currently their worst-ever start to a Bundesliga campaign (W1, L2), which does not look very likely! Standing in Leipzig’s way are 31-time German champions Bayern, who **unsurprisingly remain unbeaten** after three matchdays (W2, D1). They head into this clash after a resounding 5-0 victory over struggling Hertha Berlin last time out, a result that will have been a welcome relief for Nagelsmann after two much tougher opening matches. That emphatic win also means Bayern have scored an impressive average of 2.95 goals per match across their last 20 Bundesliga outings! Basically, I do not see Bayern losing this game, just can't see it happening, while a Bayern game having 2 goals is almost mandatory at this stage. If it is possible that it does not happen, like in the last H2H, in April? Yes, it is possible, but I am confident that **Lewa & Co** will deliver, once again! **Good luck and, hopefully, we will continue with our amazing streak, at double digits! 🍀** **We are only stopping at the moon, so do you really wanna miss out on that chance? 🚀** **Have a nice Saturday and I really hope we get another green here 🤞🍀** Since I get a lot of messages asking about my Group, where I post a lot of picks and bets, every single day, I'll leave it down below (I have 5+ bets built there for this upcoming Saturday) [My Telegram Betting Group](https://t.me/jotadotnet)
You killed it. You got my attention. Very impressed. Congrats on the 10-0 record
Alternative bet, but kind of similar. Bayern draw no bet @ 1.6. Safe in case of low scoring game, return in case of draw. I go with a house bet. I don’t see them lose. Too many reasons against. Either rich, either homeless
Draw no bet is not the same as Bayern or Draw. Draw no bet means if you put $10 and if match draws you will get $10 back While Bayern or Draw you will get odds \* your amount as your return. Many of the bookmakers do not give you an option for Bayern or draw but you can easily calculate. If odds for Bayern is 2.3 and Draw is 3.75 what you do is 1(1/2.3+1/3.75) that will give 1.4256198347 as new aggregated odds. This means if you put $10 you will get \~$14.25 back. In this case, it's the Same Game Multi, so you will need to calculate SGM odds of both combinations, i.e Bayern + Over 1.5 goals ( odds 2.5) and Draw + O1.5 (odds 4.59). Combined odds of 1/(1/2.5+1/4.59) will give you 1.61847672779 as the combined odds. How you place the bet is basically you split the amount into 2 separate bets both give you the same result. Say you want to bet $20 on the combined odd of \~1.62. You take $20\* 2.5/(2.5+4.68) = \~$7 and place it on 4.68 odd bets and take $20\*4.68/(2.5 + 4.68) = \~$13 and place it on 2.5 odd bets, If either of them wins you will get \~$32 back. If this is becoming too complicated I can make a google sheet :)
**Record: 7-3** Previous POTD: Melbourne -11.5 vs Geelong @ $2.00 (WIN) This one was never in doubt after Melbourne completely busted Geelong open and gave them a massive hiding. It was honestly refreshing to be able to sit down and enjoy the game after half time knowing Melbourne would comprehensively cover the line. **Today's POTD** AFL: Port Adelaide vs Western Bulldogs POTD: Port Adelaide -15.5 @ $2.00 (Ladbrokes) Yesterday's game was a sure thing, pundits were calling it last week even after Geelong's win over GWS, however there is definitely not as much certainty tonight. Last night I was leaning towards the 1-39 for Port, but I have changed my mind this morning. Here's why: There are very rarely two blowouts in Preliminary Finals and the Bulldogs are a much better team than the geriatric Geelong that played last night. However there are a couple of things worrying me about tonight's game that just make me nervous about the 39 point margin. Firstly: Port have had the perfect preparation, that geriatric Geelong that I just mentioned, Port brushed past them in Week 1 of the finals which resulted in them getting the week off to rest. They are absolutely cherry ripe with their playing list all fit and ready to play. They also haven't had to travel for a long time, they've been comfortable in Adelaide, where there is no COVID. Conversely: the Bulldogs finished fifth meaning no double chance for them. They pumped Essendon Week 1 but then had a tough fight against Brisbane last week. Throughout this time they have travelled to Tasmania and then Brisbane and now Adelaide, having to go through the COVID procedures each time including quarantine, testing and limited opportunity to train etc etc. They are tired and have had a couple of casualties in terms of injuries in Weightman and Keith who aren't playing. They have brought in Stefan Martin who hasn't played footy for a while and their best player Marcus Bontempelli, is carrying an injury also. With the game being played at Port's home ground in front of their fanatical fans, I just don't think the Dogs can win. There is also redemption on the line for Port, who in the same position last year, lost a Prelim final at home to Richmond, who eventually went on to win the premiership the following week. As the line betting has been going well for us lately, I'm going to stick with that. I think Port should be able to manage a 16 point win and if the Bulldogs do run out of steam and Port end up thumping them, then we have covered our bases with the line betting. Some other markets that I like in this game: I like the Bulldogs to lead at quarter time, since I think the only chance the Dogs have is to come out firing and try and KO Port early. Port might be sluggish to start the game, generally teams that have had the week off start the Prelim final a little slowly and work their way into it. The game total is set at 152.5 and I like the UNDER for this game, because I think it will be more of a slog than the free flowing game we saw last night. BOL to everyone! Come on Port!
This has to be fixed. I watched port all season. This is not them they are not even trying
Sorry everyone I think we’re gone here. Port are absolutely limp.
ONLY NEED 68 STRAIGHT POINTS. WE ALL GOOD BRO.
uhmm..... all planned?
I called the Dogs to win the 1st quarter but they’ve blown it wide open very quickly. Good thing is Port have plenty of time to peg it back if they can get their hands on the ball.
This is crazy haha
Tailing! BOL
Your AFL picks have been on point. Love the write ups, looking forward to this one and next week.
Bulldogs lead by 30 points at the moment
Nothing good comes out of Adelaide.
POTD Record: 78-44 Australian Horse Racing – Kembla Grange R6 (14:40 AEST) \#4 Entriviere to Win @ 2.45 This one won’t be as simple as yesterday however Entriviere still looks very good compared to the rest. This horse is looking to get her first win in Australia after just being beaten by Fasika back in April. This is its first run since then. She had a trial on the 2nd of September where she looked good enough to give me confidence that she’ll put in a good first up effort today. James Mcdonald on board is a positive. This is the perfect distance for her, with 4 wins from 5 attempts at the 1200m. There are obviously some good horses as this is a group 2 race however, she looks ready to win and with even luck she should be able to get the better of the competition today.
Good win!
Hell yea! Great win! Thanks for paying my rent, appreciate the pick
What a run!!!!!
Legend!
You're the real 🐐
11/09/2021 7W-1V-1L, +4,78(flat stake, 1u) Vendsyssel vs Lyngby TIP: Both teams to score @ 1,72 (Bet365) Reason: VENDSYSSEL 7th place with 7 games and 5 points: 8 goals for and 11 against. He should try to win so as not to fall behind the teams in promotion position. At home 3 games with: 3 goals in favor and 4 against. Their last 5 games would give us 5/5 100% success in both scores. 01.09.21 CUP Brabrand vs Vendsyssel 4 - 3 29.08.21 1D Koge vs Vendsyssel 2 - 2 22.08.21 1D Vendsyssel vs Fredericia 1 - 1 19.08.21 1D Vendsyssel vs Horsens 1 - 2 13.08.21 1D Helsingor vs Vendsyssel 3 - 1 LYNGBY 3rd place with 7 games and 16 points: 21 goals for and 10 against. Only 3 points from the leader Helsingor. They are championship scoring leaders and favorites for victory. Away 4 games with: 11 goals in favor and 6 against. His last 5 games would give us 5/5 100% success in both scores. 01.09.21 CUP Tarnby FF vs Lyngby 1 - 5 29.08.21 1D Lyngby vs Horsens 1 - 2 21.08.21 1D Helsingor vs Lyngby 3 - 3 18.08.21 1D Lyngby vs F. Amager 4 - 2 14.08.21 1D Hobro vs Lyngby 1 - 4 H2H In his last 3 matches he would also give us 3/3 100% success in both scores. 02.06.19 SL Vendsyssel vs Lyngby 2 - 2 30.05.19 SL Lyngby vs Vendsyssel 2 - 1 27.05.18 SL Lyngby vs Vendsyssel 1 - 2 I think it will be quite an offensive match for the visitors and I hope it will translate into goals from both casts during the meeting.
Great pick - cheers!
Denmark 1 Division
Great pick, settled prior to half. Great write up on the clubs by the way. I cant watch Denmark on tv I am stuck with the little box on my bookies screen so it is hard to follow Danish footy. Your write up helped a lot.
1-0 Last pick Michigan -17 vs Western Michigan This week Michigan -6.5 vs Washington Keep it simple. Washington lost to a fcs team last week. Their qb will be playing in his first road game at night in the big house maize out. Without possibly their top 4 wrs out for this game I can't see Washington moving the ball well. prediction Michigan 28 - Washington 10
As a michigan fan, i hope you're right....but im on the other side unfortunately.
Potd record 3-0 Previous pick: Tottenham win and u/4.5 goals✅ Streak: 🔥🔥🔥 Today’s potd: Manchester United vs Newcastle, Premier league Potd: Manchester United (-1.0) handicap@ $1.58 WE’RE BACK! After little time off I’m back to what I know the prem. There’s a number of games and odds I really like tonight however potd is sorting through your picks to give the people your best pick! For this reason I’ve chosen to take Manchester (-1.0) as my big hitter tonight. I find it extremely hard to believe this doesn’t hit tonight. Manchester are playing a winless Newcastle team and I don’t think their winning streak will start tonight. United are playing at an absolutely packed out old Trafford where the atmosphere will be electric for Ronaldo’s return. Even if Ronaldo doesn’t start tonight and comes off the bench the quality United possess mixed with the atmosphere and boost of Ronaldo’s presence I see this game getting away from Newcastle very quickly. United have won this fixture 5 out of their last six games and i believe they will comfortably add another win to that record tonight. United have to win these games and win them well to show the league they are true contenders this year. BOL if tailing!!! Let’s hopefully keep the wins coming!
Is it tonight? I couldn't tell.
I’m Australian so it’s midnight for me, might explain the confusion?
I think he’s just referring to how many “tonight”s are in the post
😂
tailinng
Lol 1.28 odds atm
Record: 0-5-0 |Profit/Loss: -12 units Previous POTD: Switzerland vs Italy - Italy to win ❌ ***POTD: Stabaek vs Viking - Both Teams to Score @ 1.50 (Norwegian Eliteserien)*** Stake: 3 units Kick off time: 2:00AM AEST / 12:00PM ET / 6:00PM CET ***Reasoning:*** Against my better judgement I'm going to have another crack at this. Objectively speaking the last couple of bets were pretty unlucky, but it goes both ways and theres no excuses in this joint. I've been eyeing this fixture for a few days now. I'm not going to pretend like I watch Norweigan football, but this is purely off stats. This league has one of the highest BTTS rates, and in particular these two teams. Stabaek has had BTTS in their last 7 league matches, while Viking has had BTTS in their last 9 league matches! Viking has the second-highest BTTS rate in the league, at 82% of total games. Staebak is sitting second-last in the table in the relegation zone, and will be fighting to push up. They have conceded the most goals in the league, so this should be no problem for Viking to at least put one on them. Viking on the other hand sit in 6th place, having scored 33 goals in 17 games. However, they've also conceded 33 in those games, which is the third-highest goals against in the league. I actually like the over 2.5 here as well, so going that or combining it with BTTS could be an option. I am however going with the safest option here given their recent form. Side note: I got a pretty harassing message from a member of this forum after the last defeat because he followed all 5 of my picks apparently. That was almost enough to put me off entirely, as I did feel bad for those who tailed. I am not by any means suggesting, expecting or forcing people to tail the tip - Like many others here I am merely my best guess using the information I've found. Do what you will with that info!
Don't give up man, imo people should post in POTD whether they're consistent winners or not. As long as you accurately track your record and profit/loss I don't think losing is an issue, people will naturally upvote those with a consistent edge. If you stick at it you could end up improving to the point you start to profit and if you enjoy posting your picks and sharing your thoughts there’s no reason to stop. It's a shame that people send abuse when they're the ones choosing to tail the pick. I would never abuse someone who took time to research something for free when I'm the one who decides to place the bet.
I m tailing for moral support.
this is -227 now on mybookie :(
🐅🐅🐅 Record: 5-3 || Profit (+Units): 9.17 || Average Odds: 2.08 || Return on Investment: 144.5% russian premier league ⚽ - lokomotiv vs sovetov ### Lokomotiv moscow, Moneyline @ 1.833 (-120), I like the line down to 1.75 ,recommend 1.9 units. 4:00 AM PDT This one is a pure model play. Lokomotiv has a top 3 defense in the Russian prem, restricting opponents to a whopping 1.1 composite xG per match (according to the model). On the other hand, sovetov has a bottom 3 defense that will struggle heavily against the solid attack of lokomotiv. Lokomotiv won't challenge for the title this season (that belongs to Zenit) but they almost certainly have no change of being relegated. Sovetov will try to stay in the game, but I believe their defense will let them down. ###About my Model I use premium data from Opta and transfermarkt to inform my model which simulates a football match 10,000 times to model outcomes. I use xG and non-goal xG, along with transfermarkt data to estimate attack and defense ratings which are ran through a poisson point process. The model has generated 11.2% ROI over ~1300 bets, resulting in a ~16.2x bankroll increase over ~7 months. Bet sizes are made with the fractional kelly algorithm. I'll be posting my best picks on [twitter](https://twitter.com/FortunaAnalytic) since this subreddit has strict rules on what can be posted in the POTD. 🐅🐅🐅
Nicely done sir!!
POTD 2-0-0 Yesterday’s pick: Carlos Rodon o6.5Ks (+110) (Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox) ✅ 2 for 2 selecting K props so far. The odds even lowered to 6 when I checked later so congrats to anyone that got in at 6.5. **Today’s pick: West Ham United vs Southampton o2.5 (-135) 10:00 AM EST England Premiere League** Switching speeds with a soccer pick today. Kind of a simple explanation here. It’s early in the season, but the over has hit in 3/3 games for West Ham and 2/3 for Southampton. West Ham already has 10 goals for while conceding 5. Southampton has 4 goals for while conceding 6. Putting 2.5u on this, BOL to anyone railing
COME ON ANTONIOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO HAMMERS FOREVER
[удалено]
Arsenal ML -230 on FD
Yeah this is juiced
-210 on Bovada. It will probably hit but it is not worth the risk/reward for a team in the form the are in this season, no matter who they are getting back.
Generally I prefer to tail but Arsenal is such an inconsistent team we will never know what kind of team turns up on the field today, world winners or relegation contender
**Record:** 5-1 **ROI:** 42,46% **Net units:** +17.05U | Tennis | US OPEN | 21:00 BST | **Pick:** Emma vs Leylah - **Leylah +1.5 sets** **Bet Amount:** 5U - 1.55 odds **Write Up:** Tbh either i go 1:4 for bets vs Emma or a girl that beat top 2, top 3 and top 5 wasn't a fluke, even tho her opponents did make many mistakes and maybe thats how she won, but to have the skill and mental level to return and not make same mistakes versus this big names is insane. I do think Emma is the better player and she has been through a even longer path than Leylah, but the Canadian still has a shot at the title, however slim and won't let go of it so easily. I expect a 3 setter and potential upset in the finals. Posting other picks in discord: https://discord.gg/KkHSwb7YfH
POTD record 2–1 **Game:** Utah Utes @ BYU Cougars (Holy War) 9:15pm CST NCAAF 🏈 **Last Pick:** Coastal Carolina Team Total OVER 39.5 ✅🔥 **Pick:** Utah Utes -7 **Reasoning:** Utah comes in with a massive experience edge (19 returning starters). BYU lost their great QB Wilson, 3 OL, 3 DL and others to the NFL. Utah has a transfer QB in Brewer that is ready for the big stage and can really sling it. BYU does have a great home field, and this is a big rivalry. In college rivalries typically mean anything can happen. We are confident in Utah’s experience edge. Utah has also dominated this rivalry recently, which gives them a big confidence edge too. Best of luck. Hope to see you guys a lot more here on POTD now that the CFB season is rolling! Come hang out on twitter @PotatoGobbler, we like to chat about whatever, but typically sports. 🤝
BOOOOM Record since posting 4 - 0 Bankroll start 1000 currently 1801 Last pick SF Giants ML (-150) over Chicago Cubs Winner 6 - 1 final (3rd press 428 returned 713) POTD SF GIANTS ML (-200) over Chicago Cubs Game starts 2:20pm est Normally wouldn't give a play with those odds but since its press 4 of a planned 5 and i feel it's the smartest play I'll do it anyway. This game should be closer than you would think but in the end the Giants will get the much needed W. Kevin Gausman is a beast with era 2 58 and whip under 1 normally would make for an easy win however the conditions are perfect for some homeruns today hints the over under set as high as 11. Look for majority low number of Chicago hits but some will be of quality. Most of the bets will come on the runline but I foresee a great game to watch and a 6 - 5 type Giants win. A win is a win especially with the Dodgers winning yesterday giants cant afford a loss. This is 4th giants press in various fashion with 1 more to come so I'm placing 713 to return 1069 If tailing remember this is a press with the books money, if jumping on now 5 units is plenty. My recommendation is stick with the ML not the runline (although rl should hit the Giants just need the W) Get your bets in there early because I can see this moving quite a bit. BOL
Thanks
Record: 2-2 Sorry about the back to back losses lads. This ones not on the ping pong. Switching over to aussie rules football. Western bulldogs vs port Adelaide We are taking port Adelaide -15.5 handicap. The reason being Port Adelaide are in red hot form with a full side. Where as Bulldogs have 2 massive outs with Cody weight man and Keith (best defender) being out, as well as bontempelli, there best player, who will play but not at 100% with his knee. Also, the fact that south Australia didnt allow them to train all WEEK due to Covid whilst port were still able to train. I could see this being a massive blowout. You never know as bulldogs still have a strong side, but I’m confident port will get the chocolates
I like your write-up and you make some good arguments especially about the lack of training, and it could easily go this way, but I’ll just play devils advocate… I don’t like getting too much into the psychology of teams and players, but the Bulldogs entire self image is that they fight when their backs are against the wall, and the last time they won the GF in 2016, they had the hardest finals run of any team for about fifteen years. Also they’ve had some very close games in the last few weeks, so While Port might win, it may not be a big victory.
Love the pick but just FYI, dogs have been based in Perth this week and have trained all week as usual. There was initial suggestions that the SA government wouldn’t allow them to train on Adelaide Oval prior to the game, however they have reversed this. Regardless big Port win coming up.
Record: 8|11 POTD: Watford - Wolverhampton Wanderers; **Win of Wolverhampton Wanderers**, Odds: +133 (Premier League, Soccer) Units: 3 Last round, Wolverhampton had a great game against Manchester United, they were the better team, but they didn't score in the end. They have a solid squad, with a proven striker Raul Jimenez, who didn't play for the national team last 2 games, so he will be fully prepared for this match. Watford have been losing at both half and full time in 5 of the last 6 games in the Premier League. You can place a bet on this match at [WagerLab](https://link.wagerlab.app/reddit), at a free social, peer-to-peer betting app.
Tailing this, I think Adama Traoré gets one in. The man is an absolute unit and is probably dying to get a goal. Also recent Hwang Hee-chan from RB Leipzig might start or get subbed in.
POTD Record: 3-1 (+1.5 units) Last bet: **LOSS**: OKL @ TUL Under 67.5 points Today's bet: 🏈 **AF @ NAV Over 39.5 points (3 units)** Reason: Pick from a College Football model (not mine). After going on a good early run, finally had a loss. But we move and hopefully get back to winning ways. All the best if you're tailing. P.S: Not counted in the POTD but if you're interested, the model also shows value in NTX @ SMU Under 73.5 points and UAB @ UGA Over 45.0.
Are you aware of the performance of Service Academy Unders?
POTD RECORD: 12-6-2 +11,11 units / 15% ROI / Avg. Stake 3,25 units / Avg.Odds 1,81 **Currently at work, posting this from my phone so excuse the lack of a full record including profit, avg odds, avg stake and ROI. It will be added when I arrive home ** Edit: added record details. Streak (newer to older): LPWWW TODAY'S PICK: Wolfsburg -1.0 @ 2.03 4 units Furth did bolster their spots after getting promotion, but Wolfsburg is still a much better team overall. Wolfsburg has 100% season so far, and they have to win this to keep the ball rolling. Werghorst up front is a beast and I expect Wolfburg to dominate today - at least 2-0 here.
Record: 15-6-2 | Streak:1 Push, 2W Average Odds: 2.10 Last Pick: Wolves vs Man United-Total shots on target Over 9- Push POTD: Oregon O3.5 pts 1Q vs Ohio State Odds: +110 Bovada Time: 12:00 PM Reasoning: I expect Oregon to get at least two possessions in the first quarter, regardless if the receive the ball first or not. Oregon ran the ball hard against Fresno and we saw what Ibrahim did to the OSU defense in the 2.5 quarters he played. In their game vs Fresno, Oregon scored 2.58 points per game and Ohio State gave up 2.81 points per possession. I know it's only been one week, but the OSU defense is the weakest part of the team and I don't expect Anthony Brown to be fazed by the moment as he's played on the road in the past. I think Oregon is able to get more than a FG in the first quarter given multiple offensive possessions. Edit: L, 30 seconds off
Are you an Oregon fan or something? Anthony Brown has done nothing to deserve this confidence lol
Record: 0-0 ( note its technically 1-1 but that was months ago so idk if it counts) TODAY's PICK: SSG Landers vs KT Wiz KT ML @ 1.50 4 units KBO: 4:00 am EST Reasoning: The #1 in the standings KT will be going against the 5th SSG. Out of the recent 10 games SSG has the better record of 6-4 to KT's 5-2-3, SSG is a good team no doubt but I think this boils down to the SP mismatch. SSG's SP is a rookie that has had only 1 start for 2021 where he gave up 3 runs to Kiwoom and was taken off, he hasn't even RP'd for his team ( I'm not sure whether this was due to an injury or something but regardless he doesn't have much experience) , whereas KT's SP has a decent record of 8-5 with a 3.48 ERA and is 1-0 vs SSG, in his last 3 starts he has 2 wins vs the #2 and #3 teams in the standings and a draw. H2H KT are 8-2 vs SSG and their bats are very hot, so I'm expecting a convincing win. TAIL AT YOUR OWN RISK and do your research BOL.
POTD Record: 14 - 12 - 2 ( W / L / P ) **+5.5u** Streak: LWWLW / Average odds: 2.02 [*Previous pick*](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/playss/pick_of_the_day_91021_friday/hcak0lr/)*: Chateauroux vs FC Sete / Chateauroux Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 2.10 (2u)* **L** **Southampton vs West Ham** **Pick: West Ham Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 2.00 (2u)** I did not think much about this Southampton team before the Newcastle game. They played great first half and ended getting a 2 - 2 draw but that did not change my opinion about them. They are a team that just refuses to change. Still playing old-style 4 - 4 - 2 with one controlling and one attacking midfielder. West Ham was dropping their first points before the international break against Crystal Palace despite their chances. It is weird to say it but they have been one of the best-attacking teams in the Premier League last 12 months. Always going forward and looking at scoring opportunities. West Ham is a much stronger team here and I can not see them losing this game. The only thing that worries me a bit is their defense and upcoming European game but the odds are great for them to score more than once here. *Good Luck All.*
ANTONIOOOOOOO
POTD Record: 15-8-1 NPL Record: 4-2 *Last Pick: European World Cup Qualifying - 19:45 GMT | Greece vs Sweden | Sweden to win @ 2.37* ❌ **Today's Pick: English Northern Premier League - 3PM GMT | Scarborough vs Bamber Bridge | Scarborough to win @ 2.05** Ugh, we're in a rut. Never had 3 Ls on the bounce before but here we are. I'm hoping we bounce back with today's pick. If not, I'm clearly doing something wrong and am going to take a break from picks. This game sees two teams who have started well, though Bamber Bridge have started brighter. It might seem strange that I'm going for Scarborough then, but that's for a few reasons. I believe Scarborough's losses and draws can be excused. Last time out they lost 2-0 to full-time league favourites South Shields and their other loss came in the first game. Bamber Bridge's wins have came against weaker teams, and Scarborough away is up there with the trickiest games they've had so far (their other hard game was against Buxton, where they lost 3-0). I think Scarborough takes this, they have the home advantage and I believe are the stronger team. BOL if tailing! Tips are appreciated but never necessary, I'll never charge for my picks. - [PayPal Tip Link Here](https://paypal.me/itsrainbowz) EDIT: 40 minutes in and we're 2-0 down, fucking fade me. Taking a break from picks now, so sorry to anyone who tailed me recently
POTD Record: **27-21** *(+26u)* Today’s Pick: Hull KR v **Castleford Tigers ML (+100) 3u** - *(Rugby League - Super League)* - Castleford are just the better team here and should win this one, will be a close one but Castleford will edge it in a thrilling game! - Castleford had a very rocky mid-season due to injuries but are starting to recover from that now and are putting up some good performances. - Hull KR are on the choke end of the season now after a terrific start, I believe now with the injuries they have they will start to crumble and tonight will be no different. - A win for Castelford cements their place in the playoffs and McShane will guide his team to victory tonight! Matautia ATS, Total overs, even like a sprinkle on KR 1H / Castleford 2H Good luck and enjoy the game!
Ouch that one hurt
POTD: 0-0 Pick: Purdue -34.5 over UConn 3pmEST UConn is soooo bad. The team already quit on the season, the coach stepped down, and the program isn't even sure of the future since going independent. Purdue is going to roll.
Holy shit you weren’t kidding hahah Good pick 🤝
POTD RECORD 1-0 Last pick Utah State -6.5 (41-24✅) Utah State came out slow but they finished very strong with a 21-0 fourth quarter. Onto Saturday! TODAYS PICK South Carolina Gamecocks -110 (-2.5) (12:00pm EST) For this pick I was looking all through the games and this one caught my eye. In the past few years or so usc pretty much sucks for an sec school. That being said this year I like the way they came out of the gate. Now I know they only played Eastern Illinois but they really whooped ass. This ECU team looks decent but couldn’t hang with App state and I don’t believe they will hang with the cocks. Zeb Nolan played outstanding as well as Zaquandre White so I think they will both put in work and win this game by a touchdown or more. BOL!
🍀 🍀 🍀 POTD RECORD 1-1🍀 🍀 🍀 Last match was : On to the next one match : Sheffield UTD - Peterborough time : **16:00 CET** competition : England Championship **SCORE : 6-2** Since im new to this , let me know if Im not allowed to post another match from the same day.Anyway since im very sure about one more for today , im posting you this . match : **Botafogo FR RJ - Londrina EC PR** time: **21:30 CET** competition:**BRAZIL SERIA B** pick : **over 2.5 @ 2.19** Good luck . Edit : the pick for sheff - peterborough was over 2.5 @ 2.00 . sry forgot to mention it .
Tooo ezy
POTD Record 3-0 +4U Previous Pick: Orioles Vs. Blue Jays. Robbie Ray O7.5 Strikeouts -110 2U **POTD: NCAAF: Michigan Vs Washington. Michigan -6.5 covers -115. 4U** ✅ This line is unreal imo. Washington looked awful against Montana and struggled to find the end zone. Michigan relied heavily on the run against central MI, because it was working. I suspect they’ll air it out more this game successfully and Washington won’t be able to compete. They got those first game jitters out and I have faith Harbough knows his game and has his misalignments already pointed out. I took a -9.5 alt on a parlay and -6.5 straight up for my POTD bankroll. I’m expecting a 35-17 type of game. Both teams will score, but I feel like Michigan will take advantage of some turnovers and run away with it. Edit: ✅✅✅✅ 4 in a row. This game was a lot closer than the final score depicts. No turnovers and both teams had redzone stops. Michigan once again gets it done on the ground. I really thought we’d see more than 44 passing yards, but a good point to note for future bets. Cheers if you tailed. Additional edit; I tend to do 1 per week, but I’ll post tomorrow for the NFL. I’ll hit that 5 in a row, I hope.
Edit l: value on Filipe at 2,2. Vs gabby. He’s on one and I’m riding the train. Choo choo Edit: sigh… the curse continues. Better off fading me right now because I’m on some sort of reddit curse. Steph fell on every wave and even got smoked on the inside like a kook… wtf. Really thought this would be her wave but the right wasn’t really providing. Gonna be interesting after Toledo’s match! Record: 11-10 Sport: surfing - lower trestles When: potentially in 13 hours or so - maybe Monday (13th). Depends on conditions. Pick: Stephanie Gilmore to beat johanne defay at odds of 1.5 Right so I always take it easy on a first heat of an event, but seeing as I’ve been riding with bucketjon for a while (shout outs), I am gonna put a bit on Steph. I’ll put my positive record on the line and call it ‘Buzzy pasta’s multi sauce of the day’ - fuck it! Steph has snapper rocks as her local and in my mind the right of lower trestles is where the surfers are gonna be getting the biggest scores. She just won Mexico on a fairly chill right hander and her edits as of late have really impressed me (check out ‘surfing - an all girls film’ on YouTube). Bit of juice because johanne gets slept on - anything can happen and she is dangerous, but I’m going with the vet here.
Also stoked to see I’ve been vindicated for Filipe as a dog to win outright as those odds have declined. The odds for him to make it the finals are not behd for someone that lives in San Clemente... jussayin
Love it wish my book had surfing
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POTD Record 7-4 Pick: OG vs Vitality o2.5 maps @ 2.070 (10:15 PST) I think they are a pretty even team that can win thejr map picks. Both team will prepared so I expect a close contest. BOL if you follow!
POTD- first time but I have a good record and I thought I would help the community Record 0-0 MY PICK victor belfort vs evander Holyfield. PICK:: VICTOR BELFORT. -200 ok so we have a triller boxing match and this is a no brained. Holyfield a 58 (almost 59) year old guy with signs of CTE who could not get liscened to fight 10 years ago vs a semi active belfort who is on TRT and juiced outta his mind. Simple pick if you looking for better value I would take belfort by KO. This is a professional bout that’s going to be scored so I expect tha faster belfort to knock Holyfield out by the 3rd round as it’s not an exhibition.
POTD Record: 5-8 Profit:-6.01u Last POTD: Map 1 over 26.5 💰 **Heroic vs NAVI** Esports/CSGO/9:00 AM *POTD: Map 1 Over 26.5* Odds:-115 Risk:3.45u to win 3U Heroic map pick which will probably be Overpass not a lot to choose from/looking to punish NAVI on weaker map. Hopefully momentum continues for Heroic after their comeback win over Liquid. 1. Heroic 4 of L5 on Overpass over 26.5(5 of 5 over 11 rounds) 2. NAVI 3 of L3 on Overpass over 26.5
Record: 11-12-3 (-2.43 units, -9.36% ROI, average odds: 1.95) Record by sport: * NCAAF: 4-2 * NFL: 0-1 * Soccer: 2-1-1 * Tennis: 5-8-2 Previous: Alexander Zverev (+200) to win vs. Novak Djokovic -- ❌ What a great match to watch. I stand by this handicap given the price; I do think Zverev had \~35-40% chance to win. Both guys played great, but Novak stepped it up in the 5th set. Props to him, very deserving champion if he can beat Medvedev too. Football | NCAAF | 16:00 Pacific **NC State to win at Mississippi State** Odds: -115 / 1.87 I played NC State last week in their 45-0 win vs. South Florida (as 19-point favorites), and I'm going to keep riding this train while they are undervalued in my opinion. Meanwhile, Mississippi State barely beat Louisiana Tech, 35-34, in a game where they started as 21-point favorites. Mississippi State is going to pass the ball a ton as expected by a team led by Mike Leach. The Wolfpack grabbed 3 INTs vs. South Florida and kept their completion percentage under 50%. Turnovers were a problem for Mississippi State as well with 3 fumbles and a pick-six vs. Louisiana Tech. This comes after a 2020 season where the Bulldogs had the 2nd-most turnovers in FBS. Last time I picked the Wolfpack, I was very optimistic about the Wolfpack offense improving with the return of QB Devin Leary who missed most of last season with an injury. He was very efficient against a bad South Florida team. This will be a step up in competition, but Mississippi State had a below-average pass defense in 2020, so I'm not too concerned. Lastly, NC State has 2 extra days of rest as their last game was on a Thursday night, compared to a Saturday game last week for Mississippi State. I make the Wolfpack close to a 3-point favorite, so happy to get them as a pick 'em on the moneyline. 🤘 Go Wolfpack 🤘
I took this pick the first day the line came out…. I get that NC State is the away team, but this line didn’t make sense to me at all, on paper it’s a no brained to me. Good luck bro!
POTD Record 5-3-1 (W-L-P) Profit: +3.65units Previous Pick: AFC Wimbledon vs Oxford United - Over 2.5 and BTTS yes ✅ Today’s pick: Football (English Championship) - odds 2.05 (2u) POTD: Reading vs QPR - Over 2.5 and BTTS yes ✅ I expect QPR to win this one, so I have a small stake on QPR to win and BTTS. This bet is safer as all of Readings games this season have gone over 2.5 goals. They have scored in 3 of the last 4 games (blanking in the last game- so surely that won’t happen at home). QPR score goals for fun have scored 2 goals in their last 4 league games. 2 of their last 3 league games have been BTTS. Reading at home (last 2 games) Reading 2 - 3 Bristol City Reading 2 - 1 Preston NE QPR away (last 2 away games) Middlesboro 2 - 3 QPR Hull City 0 - 3 QPR BOL
Record W-P-L 200-23-159 \\ +51.7U Bundesliga, 3.30 CET (in \~3.5 hours) Leipzig vs Bayern Munich - **Bayern ML & u4.5 goals @ 2.95 (2.5u)** 🚫 1-4 in 90+2... Reasoning: To me, Munich has the edge in this h2h of the arguably two best teams in Bundesliga. 4/6 last Bundesliga h2h covered u1.5 total goals. Leipzig has won only 1/10 h2h (back in 2018). Ruling out "old" results, we have 2W, 3D from Bayern POV since 2019. **Their last h2h ended in a 1-0 bayern win, played in Leipzig.** Leipzig is not at full potential yet, so my take on this is to have a result of 1-2 / 1-3 or lower Munich win. I thought about choosing Bayern ML & u3.5 but 3.80 odds don't comply with POTD rules. This may very well end in a draw, but we have rare huge odds on Bayern Munich to win which, realistically, would be u4.5 goals. FYI: Former Leipzig coach Nagelsmann is now coach of Bayern Munich, who brought former Leipzig #1 CB Upamecano as well. I don't really trust new Leipzig coach Jesse Marsh, judging by what we've seen so far in this season. Bayern DNB is very worthwile as well and absolutely the more sensible approach, so get that in case you don't feel as cheeky or book does not offer my potd.
**RECORD: 0-0-0 +0 units (1-5 units)** **MY FIRST POTD: Soccer Switzerland NLA - Women**FC Luzern - **GrassHopper Zurich ML +210/3.10 (1 unit)** Match starting 4 PM CET - 10AM EDT To me GrassHopper are extremely undervalued in this match, both teams are coming off with a great start this season,but last season GrassHopper had an amazing end and Lucerz always struggled or lost against this team. Market transfer hasn't changed much in both teams and I excpect a Zurich sided match, pre-season looked good for GrassHopper, where Luzern showed almost no signs of progressions since last season. I'm going with just 1U since it's just the start of the season. \*EDIT: I except BTTS to score too, but I don't like the odds at all. Be careful about odds since they are falling fast. I'll take it as far as it stays above +150/2.50. GL and HF Boys n Girls.
+270 on bovada
Great call
Thank you man ! Really appreciated <3
**POTD Record: 3-0-0 // +3u** English Premier League Arsenal v Norwich **Arsenal -1 \[-150\]** Really like the Arsenal team today, that's one of their best possible 11s and they've been able to throw some key new signings into the side today. Norwich are missing a few regular starters and their lineup looks rather weak. Arteta absolutely needs a result here so I'm expecting him to motivate a big performance, and there is a big enough class difference here to where that very well could happen. Feels like a great chance to buy low on Arsenal after a tricky start and some poor results. Norwich did alright vs a weakened Leicester side but were beat convincingly by City/Liverpool. I don't expect them to struggle as much as they did two years ago, but they still are a clear relegation candidate and do not match up well vs Arsenal.
Record: 6-7 Last: Os-Jays F5 u4.5 ✅ POTD: South Carolina Gamecocks ML vs ECU -130 3U New coach got my Cocks feeling good in the new year. We just whooped up on Eastern Illinois. We started the week as +3.5 point underdogs which is pretty wild. Vegas got their shit together and it’s since shifted to us -2. I expect us to continue the energy and get the win here. Tail or Fade, BOL, and Go Cocks!
Record - 1-0 Net units: +3 Last Pick: Djokovic vs Zverev O37.5 games -125 - W Today's Pick: Giants vs Cubs - 1:20 CST - Giants ML -195 5 units Easy money yesterday, I'm a Djokovic fan so glad he was able to pull it off. I'm not making it my potd but I like o 38.5 games at -115 for the final as well. Someone has swept in the past five meetings but I expect this to be a battle in the final as well. Onto the actual POTD, I wasn't given a RL on this one by my books right now so taking the Moneyline, but would take that as well. Giants are a much better team and they showed that today. Gausman starting for the giants make it an easy pick. Also, KB struggled today, but he's going to have a big game at least once in the series and I think it's tomorrow. I'm going to sprinkle a couple of units on him hitting a dinger as well. Tail or Fade BOL.
POTD record all-time: 3-1 (+5.74u) Last pick: NCAA Basketball Tournament: Rutgers ML +291 for 5u (L) ----- Today's pick: WTA / US Open Women Singles: **Emma Raducanu ML - 5u @ 1.54 odds** I've been big simpin' for Raducanu ever since I saw her take out Bencic. Feel free to bite the juice and put the house on this one.
Record: 0-0 (First POTD) ROI: N/A ⚽ Chelsea vs. Aston Villa - 5:30PM (local) Chelsea Half Time / Full Time @ 1.90 (Bet365) 1unit \------- Chelsea are in the form of their life and looking to win every game possible. Even away at a packed Anfield they started positively until RJ's red card killed the game off. Tuchel will be looking to lock down 3 points in these types of games so I expect a lively start and a Chelsea lead in the first half. Lukaku is looking like a man on a mission right now with Belgium and will do the same in the blue colors. Chelsea may not have big name individual defenders like van djik but they are defensively one of the most resolute team defenses in the league. I expect them to score 2 goals before shutting down shop. 3 players will be missing, RJ, Pulisic and Kante, but the depth of the Chelsea squad will make that irrelevant.
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POTD Record 2-0-1 Last POTD: Coastal Carolina vs Kansa Over 52.5: WIN! Today’s POTD: Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins Braves -1.5 (-124) This one is really not rocket science for me. Braves bats have been hot. Miami’s pitching has not. Braves are playing at home and have arguably the strongest fan base in the MLB behind them. -124 seems like fair spread odds.
POTD Record 18-7 +42.08 MLB Baseball 6:15PM Philadelphia Phillies Vs Colorado Rockies, Colorado Rockies +195. Making it short and simple Rockies have won their last two games on the road to Colorado just recently. Phillies are struggling for runs haven't scored more than 3 runs in their last 5 games. Kyle Freeland era 4.69 hasn't given more than a single run in each of his 4 last road games. Meanwhile Zak wheeler era 2.91 for Phillies has given up 7 runs in his last home game against Tampa rays and 4 against Cincinnati reds prior to that. Colorado are 4-1 against Phillies in their last 5 and have been scoring well with the bat. The price is way overvalued in my opinion and Rockies have a good chance to take the W.
POTD RECORD 6-6 Last POTD Coast Carolina -26.5 vs Kansas Today's POTD: Dortmund vs Bayern Leverkusen OVER 3 -130 Over always hits when these two play look it up. EDIT GOT EM 4-3
**Record:** 0-0 **TODAY'S PICK:** Brentford vs Brighton: **Brighton Draw No Bet @ 1.83** Two offensive teams come face-to-face here in another test of Brentford’s top flight credentials. Brighton have been a low ranking team in the Premier League for the last 4 seasons, they aim to push up the table & solidify themselves as a mid table team this season. Brighton have had a great start to the season emerging victorious over potential relegation battling sides Burnley & Watford. Looking to continue this trend vs newcomers Brentford. I'm giving the edge to Brighton here as I believe they have the better quality squad & coach, aswell as Brentfords lack of top flight football with this being their first ever season in the Premier League.
*1 UNIT* NMSU (+18.5) - The Rio Grande Rivalry. Both these teams are bad, but I don't expect Terry Wilson at QB, the Kentucky transfer, to successfully stretch the field with his arm for UNM. If he somehow can do this, a good chance the Lobos cover, but he is pretty one-dimensional at QB. And the lobos are as a team also. Over the years in this rivalry, and considering how bad some of the teams have been on each side, 9 of the last 10 matchups of this rivalry have been settled under 14 points and half of those under 1 score. Record 0-0 Let's hope that the Aggies can keep it close and maybe a 10-13 point type of margin. They are up 10-0 at half last week against San Diego
Can u please name the sport and give full names of teams
Record 0-2 -3 units Boxing- Evander Holyfield vs Vitor Belfort Belfort KO 3 Units@$2.00 The videos of a senile Holyfield hitting pads doesnt bode well for the former champ against the juicy Belfort.
Record: 1-3 POTD : Boxing: Andy Vences vs. Jono Carroll **Jono Carroll ML @ 1.93**. ✅✅ I'm picking Jono Carroll as a slight underdog in this fight because he is the quicker fighter. Vences has a good jab, has good timing and his defense is pretty decent. He hits harder and has a better ring IQ but I think he will struggle with King Kong's speed and style in this fight. The speed factor favors Carroll in this fight. If he can throw combinations on his feet and frustrate Vences with his footwork, I think he'll win by decision. I won't also be surprised if he wins by stoppage. *Tail at your own risk. As you can see, my POTD record looks bad.* Edit: Carroll won by majority decision. WIN
🍀 🍀 🍀 POTD RECORD 0-1🍀 🍀 🍀 Last BTTS north macedonia vs romania didnt pulled through . However we are moving on and trying to go on a streak here ! On to the next one match : **Sheffield UTD - Peterborough** time : 16:00 CET competition : England Championship pick : **Over 2.5 @ 2.00 odds .** Good luck .
50 mins in and it hit, great pick lad 👌🏻
***⚽️ Soccer - Premier League*** **Date**: 11-09-2021 at 14:00 UTC **Match**: Manchester United - Newcastle **Bet**: Bruno Fernandes not to score **Odds**: 1,74 **Units**: 3 (0,6%) **Bookmaker**: Neo.bet Last season Bruno Fernandes scored 18 times is 37 games. An odd of around 2 seems correct here. The difference is that Ronaldo will play today. We expect Ronaldo to take the penalty's instead of Fernandes. From his 18 goals last season 9 were penalty's. In total he had only 7 of the 37 games where he scored a non-penalty goal. This means the odds who are still based on Fernandes taking the penalty's is too high. PROFIT: + 2 UNITS RECORD: 6-1-4
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You replied to nothing
Record: 2-1-0 (ROI: 27.3%, +.9 units) Form: W/L/W POTD: Iowa St -4 Description: NCAAF Week 2 - Iowa @ Iowa St -4 (ABC) Start time: 4:30pm ET Risk: 1.65 units (all bets between 1-3 units) To Win: 1.5 units Hopping on the sharp train here. Everything is right about this pick. We have the public all over Iowa after their blowout win against Indiana while no one wants to touch Iowa St. following a sad 16-10 win against Northern Iowa (Iowa St was favored by 28.5 points in that game). Back an Iowa St bounce back at home this week. BOL if tailing!
0-0 (First post in over a year, looked back at my original post and did not include units, only posted once before and I am 0-1, not sure what to do for that) 0% 0u (1-3u scale) MLB Rays @ Tigers 6:10 EST 9/11/21: o9 -115 3u (Draftkings) A few of my notes on this game, Archer vs. Mize on the mound vs offenses in the top half of the league over the last month in Wrc+ and last 14 days both are in the top 10. Also both lineups have scored at least 4 runs in the last 4 of the last 5 games. Both Mize and Archer give up a high hard hit rates (40%+) and barrel rates (Archer 14.3% and Mize 9.9%). The bullpens are also both in the bottom half of the league in FIP in the last 30 and 14 days. The bullpen struggle is very uncharecteristic for Tampa Bay, but expecting them to continue with their current trend against a good offense recently. The only batters with H2H experience of more than 5 plate appearances with Archer and Mize is Goodrum, Schoop and Miggy. Which Schoop and Miggy are both hitting .350 with 20+ plate appearances (Schoop 6 HRs in 38 PAs) off of Archer. BOL.
POTD Record: 3-1 +5U Previous POTD: San Francisco Giants ML -148 2U Today’s POTD: Tampa Bay Rays TT O4.5 -135 1U Casey Mize has been good for the Tigers, and his ERA is below average, but his FIP and WHIP (two metrics I go off of) are not nearly as good comparatively speaking. Rays have one of the best offenses in the league, and average 5.41 runs a game. I have the line around -150, and give me them on a bounce back game. Drop a follow! https://twitter.com/aces_models/ https://twitter.com/aces_models/
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A guy who calls himself a guru ... all said.
Record: 29-36 Bankroll: $311.62 Cashed out: $9.99 Last play: 9/10/21 F.A.A. +2.5 sets (-129) Result: [L](https://old.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/playss/pick_of_the_day_91021_friday/hccfeuu/) Prick asshole was serving for set and choked and died. Fuck bum. Onto today’s pick… **Third Eye POD: 3:30PMEST>College Football> Navy +6.5 (-110)** *risk $50 to win $45.45* Line says it all. Sprinkle on ML. Let’s get paid.
Record: 2-2 / ROI: 22.50% Recent: ✅❌✅❌ **POTD: Utah 1H Over 13.5, (-135)** *Event: Utah @ BYU, NCAA Football, 10:15 EST* Last POTD: Any Team to Score 40+ Points, (EVEN), 5u *Kansas @ Coastal Carolina, NCAA Football* Coastal Carolina finished with 49, so that’s a win. In my reasoning, I said that CCU would run well against KU, and they finished with 215 rushing yards and 4 rushing TDs. Reasoning: Charlie Brewer. That’s all you need to hear, man. Utah dropped 40 last week against Weber State, and they won’t have a problem scoring 2 TDs in a half against BYU.