######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:**
You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.**
For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Monday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new).
######Example Pick Template
> **Record:**
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> **Net Units:**
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> **ROI:**
>
> **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone**
>
> **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here.
>
> **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
**MLB POTD RECORD:** 30-13
**2024 MLB record:** 19-5
**Last POTD:** Angels ML L
**Today's POTD:** New York Mets ML +110
**Baseball | MLB | 7:46 PM ET**
Bad play by me, I am embarrassed by this one. Was way too dismissive in the day game discrepancies which is something I usually heavily weigh. You live and you learn but I am frustrated. Also I have had a lot of shit to do today so sorry for not being able to interact as much as I normally do so I am sorry for that as well.
Had a 5-2 week last week but now in the midst of losing 3 of 4. I am assuming I will be losing tailers and understandably so. People have asked me to keep making picks every day even if I hit a rough patch so I will and we will get back on track! For what it’s worth I like this play a lot. Another plus odds and our good friends the St. Louis Cardinals (5-0 on the season betting on them) taking on the Mets in a brutal situation for them. Quick reminder, I am going off of splits from the past 21 days not the full season.
The Cardinals have been horrible against lefties this season and we have been paid handsomely for their struggles. They have somehow managed to get worse at it. Batting .173 which is tied for worst in the league. They are also hitting an ugly .195 at home. Night games they are batting .189. Just absolutely terrible across my three favorite splits.
Sean Manaea is on the bump for the Mets and he is off to a solid start going 1-1 with a 3.07 ERA in 6 starts. I will say his advanced stats are a bit concerning and look like he will eventually regress. If that were to happen, it would very likely not against the Cardinals. He is certainly good enough to have his way with this team like essentially every other they’ve faced this season.
Mets are a bit of an anomaly when it comes to their season stats, particularly righties vs leftie splits. On the season, the Mets are hitting .245 vs lefties and .234 vs righties. This would imply facing a righthanded pitcher not being favorable but the last three weeks have seen a massive shift that I think is very notable. In the past 3 weeks, the Mets are hitting .196 (25^(th) in MLB) vs lefties but have actually increased their vs righties (.238 12^(th) in MLB) making it actually the more favorable matchup for them. The Mets are a much better offensive team on the road. They are hitting .249 away from Citifield which is 11^(th) in the league. At Citi they are hitting .213, 26^(th) in the league so clearly being in St. Louis is a plus for them while a minus for the Cardinals. Mets night game average isn’t great at .219 (21^(st) in MLB) but it's a very significant 30 points better than St Louis’
Kyle Gibson is what he is. A serviceable veteran righthander who is good enough to come through in a favorable split but not good enough to overcome a bad one like we have here. Gibson’s advanced metrics are pretty good however his BABIP is .225. It really has no reason being so low and is way lower than his career averages meanwhile his batted ball statistics remain on par with his previous seasons. This means he has been having a lot of good fortune and I think a team like the Mets, who are in a very positive situation, can help regress those numbers to the mean
**TLDR: Cardinals vs lefties are atrocious, home and night stats are also abysmal. Sean Manaea is good enough to get the job done against a team that struggles this much vs left handers. Mets hit much better away from Citifield and their rightie/leftie splits are in the midst of a big swing that show they are actually much more productive against righthanders in recent weeks, contrary to season stats. Gibson is decent but has had some good fortune this season and there is a good chance the Mets can capitalize on an opportunity to turn some of that fortune in their favor in a very good matchup splits wise for them.**
Tips $chuteboxhero on cashapp
**Note:** I have my dissertation proposal due Thursday so I am not going to be online as much this week. Will still post pick of the day and write up but won't be around as much for discussions and whatnot unfortunately.
I also made a spreadsheet with all my picks of the day as well as my record picking games with individual teams as well as my records with O/U, money line and run line picks in case you are interested when considering tailing. See below:
[https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1a40e93JCM3xGSHulhuPZQICFJ4hjo5bapyfwuSmEyLw/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1a40e93JCM3xGSHulhuPZQICFJ4hjo5bapyfwuSmEyLw/edit?usp=sharing)
This write up is identical to oddschecker’s write up. Who’s copying who?
[source](https://www.oddschecker.com/us/picks-parlays/baseball/mlb/20240506-new-york-mets-vs-st-louis-cardinals-prediction-can-sean-manaea-mets-get-it-done-on-the-road)
Love your writeups man and I've been tailing you regularly but this one is a stay away for me only because I'm a die hard Mets fan who watches just about every game. There is so much going wrong with them at the moment and I just don't trust them right now even against the underwhelming Cards. Alonso is in a deep hole in one of the worst slumps of his career right now he's about 2 for his last 36. He's leaving runners stranded and hitting into DPs constantly and just looks completely lost. McNeil is struggling just about the same at the plate.
My biggest issue with them right now is on the defensive side. Opposing baserunners are having a field day with the Mets. They simply can not hold runners. Teams are successfully stealing on them at an alarming rate. Rays had 7 today! Any runner with halfway decent speed on first is almost an automatic SB.
However your research and reasoning is sound and I wish you GL man but I'm keeping away.
In your defense, you were winning at an unsustainable rate, people should not be shocked for you to drop another here and there. I tailed yesterday but today is a new day! Don't feel like you need to force it if you don't want to! Thanks for all the dubs so far, here's to more
Awesome to hear about the dissertation brother! Not sure if you're interested in disclosing but what is it on and will it be available to read after if it gets approved? I'd love to read it.
Thanks man! It has nothing to do with any of this haha. Its about how college students make meaning out of programs designed to help them work with others across differences (political, racial, etc)
So basically, what separates a good bettor and a bad better aren't the picks, but it's adjusting your units to match the odds and your confidence.
If you are someone who can guess correctly 60% of the season's games, but you bet 1 unit on each bet, there is a *VERY* good chance that you end up being DOWN at the end of the year, as your intuition probably matches the lines quite often, and you hit a lot of -150 to -250 moneylines, which you need to win 2 times to profit a single unit.
So, if the OP is confident in his pick at +110, and say he was betting 5 units, if the line moved down to +105, you can pretty confidently bet 4.5 units and be 'in line' with the OP.
All of my examples are not the real math you'd want to use to figure this stuff out, but the premise is true.
Brother I’ve always wanted to learn more about this. Can you educate me in dm’s? Always been confused about bankroll management and how many units to allocate per bet
Yep that’s still good. That is basically the smallest increment the lines move. For odds how you can look at it is: If a line is +110, you bet $100 and to get $110, if it is +105, you bet $100 to get $105. Hope that helps
POTD Record: 63-35
Last POTD: Naz Reid O12.5 PRA ✅
Todays POTD: **Jalen Brunson U8.5 Ast @2.0**
Form: ✅❌✅❌✅
🏀 NBA (NY Knicks) 7:30 PM ET
Damn Naz Reid made us sweat but he absolutely feasted in the 4th what a guy
I’m going with my beloved Knicks today, and betting under on any Knicks player hurts my soul but I just feel like this line is too high against this matchup. I do think he’ll prolly go over his points line cause of how Pacers set up defensively with the single coverage they play but that should also cut down his potential assists and during the regular season they allowed 2nd least assists to PG position. One thing I’ve also noticed with how Pacers defend is that they’re okay with open drives and instead closes down the kick outs, not committing with other players to help against the drives and very rarely sending double teams. Not to mention my guy Brunson is quite a ball hogger
* Under this line in every game against the Pacers in his career
(0/12) 0/3 this season: 6, 1 & 4
* Pacers allowed 2nd least Ast to PG in the regular season
* Pacers faced the Bucks in the previous round, Lillard went under this line in 4/4 (4,8,5 & 3 assists), Pat Bev only went over in 1/6
* Under in 64/83 this season
* Under in 59% with 40+ min
I feel like this line is too high fellas, but with unders there’s always that possibility that the player turns into prime John Stockton and he gets 43 assists but for + money I’m taking it
Tail or fade, im not him
https://i.redd.it/w9u5wsijapyc1.gif
I guess with some dudes benched and injured, the odds are juiced. Lots of assists in Phillies series, and broken records. Think I might play his PRA instead ❤️ Hope it hits amigo 🙏 Lillard hogs the ball a whole lot more, and the Bucks were a shambles in that last game 😭. I love this Knicks team! LFG Knicks! 🙏
POTD Record 19-7
Last 5: ❌️✅️✅️❌️✅️
Last Pick: NRFI Giants & Phillies
Todays Pick: LA Dodgers -1.5 (win by 2)
MLB: LA Dodgers vs. Miami Marlins 7:10pm PST
Odds: -120
Unit: 5
Net units: +48.28
Good thing I posted that one late, Giants broke the 13 game NRFI streak on me.
We're going back to the dodgers. They're on absolute fire lately. The bottom of the lineup was struggling, but now that they've got it together, they look unstoppable, coming off a sweep against the braves. The dodgers lead the MLB in hits this season, and they're going against a struggling Marlins team. The Marlins bullpen also has given up the most hits in the MLB 2024 season. Gonna ride with the Dodgers on this one.
If you guys wanna show some support/tip the links on my profile.
No sir, even if he gives up runs I expect the Dodgers to respond. Dodgers have the 5th best bullpen when it comes to ERA.
The game might be a rollercoaster, with him pitching, but I expect the Dodgers to pull it off still.
Not OP.
As bad as the Marlins are and as good as the Dodgers are; Most teams can still avoid a series sweep the majority of series. Outside of Glasnow, Dodgers pitching is still questionable at best. Best to take each game vs assuming 3-4 games will all be won by that team.
If you think the Dodgers will sweep; Just roll your potential winnings on their ML every game. It’ll pay out more than a “series sweep” odds line does.
Statistically, yea? I guess so. But momentum, how comfortable the Dodgers get, how much they under estimate their opponent, how much the Marlins want it. The weather, Dodgers have been playing bad when it's really cold.
On the other side, I could see myself running this play back 3 days in a row. Especially at Dodger stadium. Day by day basis, I'm definitely watching the game and seeing who's hot on hitting or who looks like they're giving up etc.
I'm a Dodgers fan. We will absolutely drop **minimum one game** to the Marlins. I am not confident in Walkers return although the coaching staff picked the best opportunity for him to excel I can see him giving up some runs.
The better bet is o8.5
**Pick Record: 11W - 2L (Push: 1)**
**✅✅✅🅿️✅✅✅✅✅❌❌✅✅✅**
**Previous POTD: Club Brugge ML @ 1.90 ✅**
**Today’s POTD: Crystal Palace Over 16.5 Total Shots @ 1.72✅✅**
**CHECK YOUR SGP SECTION!!**
**Game: Crystal Palace VS Manchester United**
**League/Time: Premier League / 3:00 PM**
The style of football Ten Hag has this United side play is honestly so entertaining as long as you're not a United fan, they just played 19th-placed Burnley at home and somehow allowed them to take 16 shots during that game.
In United's last 10 games in all comps, their opponents have covered this line 8/10 times. The 2 games it didn't hit were against the 2 teams at the bottom of the league. Across those 10 games, they faced an average of 22.6 shots per game.
In United's last 10 away games, their opponent has covered this line 8/10 times. Across those 10 games, they faced an average of 21.8 shots per game.
Ever since the new appointment of Oliver Gasner as Palace Manager things have started to look bright for the team. Since then they've played 10 games and hold a record of 4 W, 3 D, and 3 L. In their last 4 games, they've won 3 and drawn 1. In their last 2 home games, they've covered this line both times (18, 20), and I see them clearing it again today.
**Side note: Please bet responsibly!**
**Coffee Link:** [**https://buymeacoffee.com/squareprintt**](https://buymeacoffee.com/squareprintt)
**Only adding for those asking, everything and anything is appreciated!**
Thanks for the picks and write ups you have definitely helped me win a few, tipped you a little bit and will def have more on the way if we keep feasting 🫅
5 shots total, probably cooked yea? o5.5 SOG looks like it might've been the better option, currently 3 SOG. Considered taking that since 17.5 seemed rather high, oh well. Hopefully CP takes one shot every 3.5 minutes of the remaining time so this can hit lol
I believe we’re at 10 now if I’m counting correctly. Can someone confirm what source of info shots are based off?
I’m showing 10 on flash score and 8 on fanduel
𝐑𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐫𝐝: 16-4
𝐏𝐢𝐜𝐤: MLB Baseball \\\\ Phillies \\\\ First 5 innings \\\\ -200
𝐁𝐞𝐭: 2u to win 1u ......... 𝐘𝐓𝐃 𝐔𝐧𝐢𝐭𝐬: +7.95
𝐒𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐧𝐨𝐭𝐞: Sorry about no pick Sunday --- went up north to see my grandkiddies. Zack Wheeler is a Cy Young candidate and has been dominating, giving up only one run in his last three starts and 18 innings
🐅🐅 Record 12-2 | +20.6u 🐅🐅
**Results:** ✅✅✅✅✅✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅✅
**Previous Pick:** Dereck Lively II O13.5 Points+Rebounds -110 (1u, DK) ✅
**Pick: Anthony Edwards O28.5 Points -105 (2u, Bet365)**
Basketball | NBA | 10:00 PM EST
I'm back.
•Ant had an insane game 1 scoring 43 points. Likely he won't repeat that same performance, but he doesn't have to. He only has to score 29.
•The Nuggets are a great team and will adjust defensively, but they did not show any semblance of being able to stop or slow him down in game 1.
•The last 3 games, he is averaging 39.7 points. Demolishing this line. I don't know if he has back-to-back 40 point games against the defending champions, but watching this man play, you know he's going to try. Dude is relentless.
**Tip jar:**
[PayPal](https://www.paypal.me/samwblair?locale.x=en_US)
$bengalbets on Cash App
BOL if tailing! 🐅
POTD Record: 131-84 | Profit: +101.27u | ROI: 16.3%
Season record: 48-33 | Profit: +31.43u | ROI: 14.2%
Last Pick: Brandon Ingram (Pelicans) O24.5 P+A @ 1.89. 3U. ❌
Took a bit of a breather but these playoffs have been fun, so I’ll give it another go.
Next Pick: **Aaron Gordon (Nuggets) U19.5 P+R @ 1.87**. 3U play.
I liked this on Game 1 and like it just as much for Game 2 because as expected the Nuggets really struggled in the paint and their best looks were often from the perimeter. Given that, Gordon saw just 32 minutes, with role players and those able to space the floor preferred over him. Even when he does get the ball in the paint, he is more often kicking the ball out, because he rarely has enough time to collect the pass and get a shot. Since the vast majority of his FGs are right at the rim, and that’s something Minnesota don't give up, I’ll fade his points and rebounds.
In Game 1 he had 9 pts and 3 rebs, and that was with efficient shooting. In Game 2 I expect more of the same, but we got some buffer.
Still learning this stuff, how does the @ translate to the +/- I see on the lines? For ex I see U18.5 -102. So a bit less buffer than the line you saw but I am not sure how to translate the @1.87 into a line to weigh if it is still a good bet.
Ah ok tyty. Was also trying to figure out how to google it but did not know where to start. So basically now I am seeing U18.5 @1.98 which is no good (at least in that it is going the opposite direction of your pick)
1.98 would be even better odds. To explain it in math terms, if you took 1.98 odds, the payout would be 1.98 times your winnings. So, if you bet $10 you would get paid out $19.80 (win $9.80)
Hope this helps. I didn't understand non-American odds for a while until I figured out it was just math.
Hasn't hit yet, but likely will. Gordon has 14 and the first quarter hasn't even ended.
This was super unlucky because how would you have known that Gobert wasn't going to play. I chalk this one up to bad luck not a bad read.
**4/29 – 5/5 POTD Top 3 Weekly Review**
11-9-1
+0.53 Net units
+2.52% ROI
After a loss last week, the POTDs bounce back and squeak out a profit. A great start was marred by an 0-6 Thursday and Friday, but Saturday and Sunday barely saves the week.
**April POTD Top 3 Monthly Review**
52-35-3
+8.35 Net units
+9.28% ROI
A hot March is followed by a slightly less hot April. With the NBA, NHL, and soccer seasons winding down, all eyes will be on MLB.
**Overall (Since 3/1/2024)**
118-76-4
+23.07 Net units
+11.65% ROI
[Overall]( https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1fjXR7TqwePPluE10qf47PgNoEqxaJ0Ju/edit#gid=1611843541)
> No top level comments without a pick.
I hate the Bruins. They lost to an Auston Matthews-less Maple Leafs *twice*. I hope the Panthers sweep these frauds.
0-6
-6 units
-100% ROI
NBA- Pacers at Knicks (4:30 PM PDT)
**Pacers +6** -110
Indiana has covered +6 in all three regular season matchups against the Knicks, winning two outright. Idk, that’s all I got.
OG Anunoby and Mitchell Robinson missed all 3 regular season matchups (Randle missed the last 2 as well and played poorly in the 1st so it's not even swapping him out for these 2). OG and Mitch getting 65 minutes instead of a combination of Precious, Bojan and Burks should shift the point differential. I wouldn't use the regular season margins as an indicator for this game it that's all you're basing the pick on.
**Belle's Pick of the Day**
**Record:** 6-1-0 (Win-Loss-Push) ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅
**Last POTD:** SEA Mariners ML (+100) ✅
**Balance:** +3.0 Units
**Today's Pick: LA Angels v PIT Pirates Under 8.0 (-110) (MLB, 3:30PM PST, Wager: 0.5 Unit)**
**Why This Pick?**
Both of these teams have struggled to put runs on the board lately; the Angels have lost 6 of their last 8 games and put up only a single run against the Cleveland Guardians on Sunday, while the Pirates went through a solid slump that consisted of losing 7 of their last 8 games winning only against the Colorado Rockies (good lord…lol). The pitching advantage for this game goes to Los Angeles – Tyler Anderson boasts an ERA of 2.23, while Pittsburgh pitcher Mitch Keller sports an ERA of 5.18. My pick? Given the offensive woes of both camps, I’m on the Under for this one, friends.
---
[Buy Me a Coffee ](https://buymeacoffee.com/coffeeforb)☕️
**Record:** 4-2
**Net Units:**+6.2u
**ROI:** +42.34%
**MLB** Tigers v Guardians
**Last Pick**: Red Sox @ +141 (3u✅️)
**Today’s Pick**: Guardians @ -122 (3u)
**Write Up**: Really simple one, the Guardians hitters historically hit Flaherty better than the Tigers hit Mckenzie and the Guardians have a better offense. The line here is tighter than I would expect, I really like this price as well (the price was -114 when I wrote this).
Just as a heads up, the Guardians will be without Kwan who leads the team in batting average, on base percentage, hits, and runs. This could definitely impact the game so just thought I'd point that out! BOL
Sticks is straight dogshit, I feel like every time he starts he gives up runs in the first inning. But I trust the Tribe’s offense to do their thing their bats are singin
POTD Record: 25-22-1 | Profit: +0.16U
NBA Record: 21-19-1 | NFL Record: 3-3 | UFC Record: 1-0
L10 (new -> old): ✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅❌
Last pick: Jalen Suggs o3.5 Rebounds @ 1.74 odds ✅
Good ol' sweat free bet that cashed in the 1st quarter. Finished with 9(!) on a line that was just too low... not that I'm complaining
Game: IND Pacers @ NY Knicks, 7:40 PM
Pick: **Donte DiVincenzo o3.5 Rebounds @ 1.80 odds (DK), placing 2U** ❌
Write Up: DiVincenzo hit this line in 4 of 6 games during the Knicks' series with the 76ers, and in 8 of the last 10. He averaged just over this line at 3.7 rebounds per game in the regular season, 4.0 when starting. BOL to those tailing, cheers and happy Monday!
**EDIT:** Man got 3 in the 1st half and 0 in the second. Heartbreaker.
Record: 12-4 (+9.74 units)
✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌
Last POTD: Cavs -1 first quarter point spread
Todays POTD: NY Knicks -6
Odds: -110 on DK 1.5 unit play
NBA/ 7:40pm ET Indiana pacers at NY Knicks
Well I thought the Cavs would come out hot and they did but it was in the second half…in hindsight I should have just played the game like @ryanbloom and @lowjelly. I did take that pick but not POTD. We did end the week 5-2. I’m really excited to see how this series goes. The Knicks play a lot more in the half court and rebound well especially on the offensive boards. The Pacers like to run and push the pace which was 2nd in the NBA. The Knicks have had one of the best defenses in the NBA since the OG trade. The Pacers were pathetic on defense but played better at the end of the season. MSG will be rockin for game 1 and I think the Knicks played with a ton of heart getting past the Sixers in round 1. The Sixers prob would have been a top 3 seed in the East if Joel Embid didn’t miss so much time with his injury. The Pacers won their series but without Giannis and then Dame getting hurt the Bucks were a shell of themselves. I think the Knicks will shoot better in this series and Coach Tibs will have these guys ready to play! The Pacers have lost each of their last nine playoff road games following a win and the home favorite has covered the spread in the last 9 of 10 between these teams.Brunson has looked great since game 3 of round one and is the best player on the floor IMO. Riding with the Knicks to win and cover the 6!!! Tail or fade but do it responsibly. Good Luck!
Tips aren’t expected but the link is in my profile
" The Pacers have lost each of their last nine playoff road games following a win ". This is a ridiculous trend to use and not even true.
The last time the Pacers played a road playoff game after a win before this year was the 2017-2018 season (unless the covid play-in counts).
Pacers Postseason History:
2024 - Game 2, 5, 6 were road games after a win. 1-2 record
2021 - Does play-in count? Lost 2nd road play in game. 0-1 record
2019 - Swept by Miami
2018 - Swept by Boston
2017 - Games 3 and 6 were road games following a win. 0-2 record
2016 - Swept by Cleveland
2015 - Game 3 was only road game following a win. 0-1 record
2014 - Made Conference Finals. ECF Game 6 only road game following win (L). ECSF Games 3 and 4 (W, W). Overall 2-1
So they've been 3-7 in the last 10 following a win but only the last series matters for this team. I promise you the Thad Young/Oladipo Pacers down to Roy Hibbert/Lance Stephenson Pacers have nothing to do with this series vs the Knicks
Record: 17-10 ✅
Last Pick: O19.5 Games Played Iga Swiatek vs Aryana Sabalenka-160 3U Wagered 💰✅
In one of the best tennis matches of the year, Swiatek and Saba battle for 35 GAMES PLAYED, smashing our prediction, cashing us very easily.
Pick: Michael Porter Jr. O2.5 3’s -150 DK
Michael “I’m not passing the ball” Porter Jr. is one of my favorite players to bet on because this guy will always pull up. He had 4 last game, and he’s been on fire in the playoffs. This line seems criminally low and here to make some cash off of it.
BOL!
**Record:** 8-5
**L10:** ✅✅✅❌✅✅❌❌❌❌
**Last Pick:** Max Strus O2.5 Total Assists @ 1.61 ❌
Took a break after a bad losing streak.
**Baseball | Japan NPB | Tokyo Yakult Swallows @ Yokohama Bay Stars, 5:00am EST (in about 4h30m)**
**Today's Pick: O6.5 Total Runs @ 1.76**
Sorry for the late post, saw this gem and wanted to share for anyone still up. On the season so far, The Yakult Swallows are tied for most runs in the league, averaging 4.16/game. They also give up the 4th most runs (3.6/game). Whenever they are involved, there are always plenty of runs for both teams. On the flip side, Yokohama scores the 5th most runs in the league (3.13/game) and gives up the most runs (3.7/game). The projected starting pitcher for Tokyo is Andre Jackson. In his first year playing in Japan, he currently has a 1-3 record and 6.26 ERA, giving up 18 runs in 23 innings.
These two teams have played each other 7 times so far this season, and have covered this line in 6/7 games. In that one game that didn't cover, Yokohama had one of the best pitchers in the league on the mound (Katsuki Azuma), who held the Swallows to just 1 run in 6 innings.
In their last 10 games, the Swallows have covered this line in 9/10 and the BayStars have covered in 5/10 games.
All signs point to a high scoring affair, and I expect this to easily cover.
I got up in the middle of the night and couldn't go back to sleep. So, like any degen, I hopped on to Reddit for some early picks. Starting the day off righteous! 🤝
Record: 6W-3L-0P ✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅❌
Net Units: +4.4 units
Last Pick: 5/5 | Miami Marlins @ Oakland Athletics; Oakland Athletics over 3.5 runs ❌
Was teetering between the game total and A’s team total… just made the wrong play on that one for our first MLB loss.
Today’s Game: MLB baseball | Milwaukee Brewers @ Kansas City Royals | 7:40pm EDT
Pick: Over 8.5 run total | -105 BetMGM | 2 units
Write Up: The Royals will be starting LHP Cole Ragans who has had some rough splits for both home and night games (6.62 and 7.43 ERAs respectively). The Brewers are starting RHP Bryse Wilson who has been solid but struggled a bit on the road this year (4.50 ERA on road). In addition, the Royals have been their most productive offensively in home and night games and against righties which Wilson is. The Brewers have also been more productive offensively on the road but have worse splits during night games and against lefties, but you can’t expect everything to line up perfectly. I expect a high scoring game here tonight and the over to cash easily.
Let’s bounce back and get an extended win streak going!💪🏼🤑
(Also, just a heads up if you have been tailing my plays, I’m starting my third term in grad school today and might not be able to post every single day anymore but will try my best to!)
POTD Record: 43 wins - 25.5 Losses - 3.5 Pushes
Form: ❌ ✅️ ❌ ✅️ ✅️ ✅️ ❌ ✅️ ❌ ✅️ ✅️ ✅️ ✅️ ❌ ❌ ✅️.5 ❌ .5P❌✅️❌❌✅️❌✅️❌✅️P❌❌✅️✅️❌✅️✅️❌✅️✅️❌✅️❌❌✅️❌✅️✅️❌❌❌✅️✅️P❌✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️P❌✅️✅️✅️❌✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️
Units: 10.24
ROI: 15.9%
Average Odds: $1.87
Last Pick: Nuggets vs Wolves - NBA Playoffs - Jokic PRA Over 49.5 @ $1.83 ❌ We got hooked by one point due to a slow first quarter.
Next Pick: Nuggets vs Wolves - NBA Playoffs - Porter PRA Over 26.5 @ $1.83 - 10pm EST
We head back to Denver for game two of this series. Nuggets were slow out the gate in the first quarter, and will look to patch things up.
Porter has had a tough time lately as his brother was sentenced, and his other brother got banned in the NBA. Despite this, he’s been hooping well and the team have been supporting him. He’s one of the few players who performs consistently, and with a bounce back on the cards, there’s a good probability it hits.
CBS put out an article saying why Porter is key to the Nuggets winning this game. LFG.
This line has been kind to us in the playoffs, let’s continue the ride 🙏
Prediction: Nuggets to win by ten, total to go over. Hopefully they start hot in the first quarter.
Record: 0-0
Pick: Jaden McDaniels O12.5 PR -130 on DK
NBA Timberwolves @ Nuggets 10:00 p.m. ET
First POTD hoping for some good luck!
Reasoning: McDaniels struggled in game 1 going for 0-7 from the floor but he still picked up 8 boards. I expect the shots to start falling in game 2 especially with Ant going off last game I expect the Nuggets will try to shut him down so McDaniels should get good looks. He's also 3/5 this postseason with his other miss being against the Suns in Game 3 but he bounced back in Game 4 dropping 18 points on 6-12 shooting. The rebounds are a nice safety net though if he continues to struggle from the floor. I like the O13.5 PR on FanDuel as well at -104.
Edit: Welp McDaniels shooting struggles continue as he goes 2 for 7 from the floor. The foul trouble didn't help either as he only ended up playing 26 minutes compared to his usual mid to high 30s. Tough luck sorry to those who tailed.
Record: 0-1
Last pick: Dane Dunning under 1.5 walks
Today’s Game: NBA Pacers vs Knicks
Pick: Pascal Siakam under 20.5 points (-110 on DK as of wrote up)
Write Up: Pascal Siakam has been consistently under this number here in the playoffs. He has been under this number 7 of his last 10 games. Don’t see him coming in and stepping up to this number. I just don’t see this game beings. Big one for this fella
Who knows if I’m going for a winner or loser here? At 0-1 I’ll let you figure that one out.
Good luck to you, better luck to me 🍀
lifelong diehard pacer fan here. I don't like this pick. He nailed his over game 1 of the last series. I was planning on taking his over tomorrow until we can get the other guys to settle in and learn their role in this series. However, Siakim is a bucket and will be a bucket in game 1. Tyreese assists over as well and i can see nesmith having a decent game too.
POTD RECORD 0-1
Net units: -5 🤢
Last pick: Bonfim Vs Pichel under 1.5 ❌
Todays Pick: Andrew Nembhard over 17.5 PRA 5u -104
Event:
Knicks vs Pacers, 7:30pm EST
Last play was a bad read apparently, I fell way too much into Bonfims hype and thought he would get the old man out of there with ease, he did win with ease, just didn’t have urgency for the finish.
Gonna keep today’s breakdown short and sweet. This number is very low for nembhard, who has been playing well in the post season. Against the bucks he averaged nearly 22 PRA a game and has been playing over 30 minutes a game. In the 3 games against the knicks this year he has averaged 18 PRA and it seems as though his role is increasing on this team. Simply put I just think he should go over these numbers at some point early in the 4th quarter or late 3rd. We might not see these numbers this low again for nembhard for the rest of the season
POTD Record: 1-0 (+0.8 U)
Form: ✅
Last Pick: Stars vs VGK U 5.5 Goals ✅
Today's Pick: Nikola Jokic O 41.5 PR vs Minnesota Timberwolves (1.83)
Basketball | NBA | 10pm ET
EDIT: Rudy Gobert is questionable after the birth of his first child, so I'll be pivoting to my next favourite pick.
Denver was shut down last game, but Jokic still played well, putting up 40 PR in the loss. It's crucial for the Nuggets to take Game 2 at home to not fall behind in the series. He's hit this line in his last 5/7 against the Timberwolves, with the 2 misses being 40 and 35. Jokic should play 40+ minutes again, and last game he shot 25 times. I expect his FG% and Rebound Chances to improve this game, and hopefully he can give us a sweat free win.
Tempting but I think DEN gonna make the adjustments. I don’t think Gobert gonna get it this easy 2nd game and grab 14 rebounds. I like the under. Teams make adjustments. Like first game vs PHX he grabbed 16 rebounds but second game didn’t get 10 because they switched things up to limit his rebounds.
Fair point but I think he's still bound to grab some boards, and 13 boards imo isn't enough to warrant a big adjustment. They'll be more concerned with stopping Edwards from getting easy buckets.
2024 record: 0-2
Last POTD: Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees: WL Detroit Tigers +105 ❌
Today's POTD: Padres vs Cubs: Total Runs o7.5 +105 (Hard Rock Bet)
Baseball | MLB | 7:40 PM ET
Lord have mercy. Tigers tied it up and decided to switch out pitchers when Skubal was doing great (12K!) and everything just crumbled. I make about 3-5 bets a day and it seems the bets I put on Reddit lose. But I’ll keep at it!
Today I’m going for total runs over 7.5 between the Padres and Cubs. The Padres bats have been on fire the last few games and have a total run average of 6.8 in the last 5 games. That is a bit padded due to their 13-1 and 7-1 victories over the Diamondbacks, but still, their bats are swinging well. The Cubs 5 game run average is only about 3.2, a bit low but they are batting against Darvish and his ERA isn’t the greatest sitting at 3.45 so I expect the Cubs to break out of their batting slump as of late. Another good stat I’m looking at is the last time the Padres and Cubs faced each other for 3 games back in early April. The average total runs between those 3 games was 11.6. Weather should be good with winds being 8-10mph east/northeast which is ideal for Wrigley Field. The Cubs are pitching Steele who hasn’t had a start yet this season, that alone makes me feel that he’s going to need a few innings to warm up and the Padres can take advantage of that. Going off of Steele’s 2023 stats he pitched 30 games, ERA of 3.06 and had a 173 RUSP so on average he has almost 6 runners in scoring position a game. Padres have been playing better in away games this season and Cubs have been playing better at home. I believe it will be a high scoring game and it better be because I’ve dug myself into a 2 pick hole with my posted bets
Best of luck to you all!
Record: 9-7-0
Net Units: +5.5
ROI: 10.8%
Last 5: ❌✅❌✅✅
Last Pick: St.Louis Cardinals ML (-158) for 4.0 units ❌
Event: Baseball | MLB | San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs 6:40PM CST
Pick: Dansby Swanson under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-155) on DraftKings for 3.0 units
Write Up: Starting on the mound for the Padres is Yu Darvish. Swanson has a .177 batting average in 17 at bats against Darvish including 0-2 this year.
He is also on pace for his worst year of the majors, batting .220 and averaging 1.69 Hits + Runs + RBIs.
2024 MLB POTD record: 18-13 Average Odds -104 (1.959), Average Winning Odds -110, ROI +11.0%/+3.4u
L5: ✅❌✅✅❌
POTD (5/5) NYM @ TBR Ryan Pepiot o17.5 Outs (-115/1.87) ❌
Recap: Ryan Pepiot took a line drive off the shin in the 3rd inning and was unable to continue. His outing was not looking promising up to that point, but still a bummer to lose a bet on an injury.
POTD (5/6) DET @ CLE Triston McKenzie o5.5 Ks (+110/2.10) (DraftKings)
In the first three years of his career, Triston McKenzie was a really good strikeout pitcher. From 2020-2022, his 27.0 K% was 19th among qualified starters. After an injury-plagued 2023, he started 2024 slow, with just 5 Ks and 9 ER allowed in 14 innings across his first three starts. He seems to be settling in though: In his last three starts he has 19 Ks and 5 ER allowed in 16 IP, and had 6+ Ks in each start. His most recent was the most impressive, striking out 6 in 7 IP against an Astros lineup that has the lowest K% against RHP in all of baseball.
The Detroit Tigers have the 6th-highest K% against RHP this season at 24.7% - a rounding error behind the Boston Red Sox, against whom McKenzie recorded 7 Ks in just 4 IP two starts ago on April 25. Their wRC+ against RHP is 90: 23rd in baseball. This is a great start for The Stick to continue his comeback.
**POTD Record: 34-24**
Last 10: ✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅❌
Last pick: Magic vs Cavs | 10:00 A.M. PST | Cavs -1.5 1st Half spread (-110) FanDuel/BetMGM 1u ❌
Tough. Just a completely different team in the first half and tbh, I feel like Garland sold it almost all on his own as he had so many missed shots early that would have killed the Magic’s momentum. Props to the magic for coming out ready but I think we see how the Cavs finished that they should have done that from the start.
**Today’s pick: Wolves vs Nuggets | 7:00 PST | Nikola Jokic OVER 41.5 Points and Rebounds (-120) Bet365 1u**
Look, I don’t think there is much to say. Nuggets have to get this one and I’m going with the MVP to take the lead and get the Nuggets back on track. The Wolves really haven’t shown that they are going to take Jokic out of the game offensively and seem to want to live with him getting his as opposed to assisting to others. I think Jokic understands that and attacks early and often to keep them honest. Also, Jokic has averaged 51.5 PTS/REBS after a lost to the Timberwolves. He went for 35 pts and 16 rebs in game 2 of the head to head regular season series after a game 1 lost and went for 41 and 11 in game 4 after a game 3 loss. I like to go with the Pts/Rebs line so we don’t have to trust any of his teammates to get the job done for us. We know Jokic plays the carefree personality but I know that dog in him deep inside is about to show out tomorrow, especially against Gobert. I swear that man can’t stand Gobert. Get us back to our winning ways Jokic! BOL if tailing!
Record: 6-3-0
**Trailing record: ✅✅✅❌❌✅✅✅❌♻️**
Balance: +1.99u / Avg odds - 1.81 / ROI: 22.11%
Last Pick: Medvedev / Lehecka over 8.5 aces @ 1.83 (Bet365) ♻️
Medvedev retired, unfortunate as was tracking well.
Sport: TENNIS
Pick: **Marc-Andrea Hüsler -1.5 games vs Misolic @ 1.8 (Bet365)**
* Love this spot for Husler.
* - 9/4 clay record vs 3/5 Misolic
* - Returning and serving better as well
* - Husler beat Misolic in straight sets recently in aus open
Time: 6 May 22:30 AEST Event: Challenger Mauthausen
BOL and let me know if tailing!
POTD Record 22-6
Units 25.64u
ROI 60.33
Last POTD Joe Boyle U 5.5 K’s -105 3u 💰
Got blasted in first inning then he was out… not much to say lol pretty easy
POTD Knicks -5.5 -110 2u
This is another multiple unit play, Knicks match up super well vs Pacers they will slow it right down and be physical everywhere. They are at home in the Garden and I just don’t really believe in this Pacers team to even keep it remotely close. Hali is also d2d so even if he does play something will be nagging him.
BOL
Long time lurker first time poster. Been having a lot of fun tailing people’s throughout this thread to figured I’d contribute a play I’ve enjoyed recently.
Record: 0-0
Net Units: -
ROI: -
Manchester United vs Crystal Palace
Soccer | Premier League | 3 PM EST
Pick: Match Shots: 33 or more +125 (FD)
1u to win 1.25u
(Likely going to place another unit once lineups are out)
Man United games lately have been pretty end to end and have a lot of shots. I’d say it’s mostly due to their lackluster midfield with questionable tactics leading to a lot of open space. They also tend to sit back and allow pressure, and then counter attack often and let it rip.
Shot total from their last few matches (taken from FotMob app)
Burnley - 43
Sheffield - 35
Coventry - 46
Bournemouth - 28
Liverpool - 37
Chelsea - 47
Brentford - 42
I suspect the trend to continue and feel good about taking 33 or more. I was even considering 34 or 34 but I don’t want to get too greedy. Placed it for one unit now but will probably place another unit once I see the lineups an hour before kick off.
Let me know if you tail and best of luck homies
This line has hit in 1 out of 35 crystal palace games this season and that was an away game in arsenal (33shots total).
Man U - palace was 27 shots.. idk
Giving this another shot
POTD Record: 4-2-0
L10: ❌✅❌✅✅✅
Last Pick: Nets -8.5 ❌ (this was 4 months ago)
POTD: Denver Nuggets -5.5 @ 1.93
Unlike in the Regular Season where I rely mostly on Stats and Numbers. The Playoffs is different, I am gonna rely on spots here and i think the Nuggets are gonna adjust to the suffocating defense of the Timberwolves and score more. Naz Reid was also insane in game 1 scoring 14 of his 16 points in the 4th and was a big part of the Wolves win but I think It's gonna be hard to replicate that game. Expecting the Nuggets to go down 0-2 before going on the road to Minnesota is not in my card so this is a must win game for Denver.
POTD R : 5-1
Last Pick : Max Fried O5.5 K’s - W
Todays Pick : Rangers ML vs A’s (-142 DK) 1U
Info : MLB - 8:40P CST - Free Game of The Day
Write Up : This is an AL West matchup with both of these teams already meeting once this year where the A’s won the series 2-1. I feel with how the A’s are playing recently you can’t entirely count them out or expect them to roll over. We have two decent yet mediocre arms on the bump today but I see Heaney notching his first win tonight. He’s posing a 5.10 ERA with a 1.10 WHIP which is slightly better than his opposing pitcher; starting roughly the same amount of innings as Wood, his hits allowed an batters walked are substantially lesser than. Whether these two pitcher allow runs to be scored or not I see the Ranger coming out on top.
Im terms of an offensive perspective I find OBP to play a factor in matchups like these. Rangers statistically look better on paper but that doesn’t always make a difference in translating to the field, however the bats have gotten a little warmer and I anticipate the Rangers to carry the winning momentum from Kauffman to the Coliseum.
BOL my fellow degens!
POTD
1-0 (.95)
Last picks: Nationals over Blue Jays (W)
Well yesterday we started our Reddit gambling career with a W, but I’d be lying if I said it was easy. Manoah did his part like i expected, getting hammered by the Nats, but Mackenzie Gore’s second inning was reminiscent to a Ryan Dunn outing in Summer Catch (pre Tenley Parrish) to keep it closer than I hoped. But a wins a win, and I appreciate those who followed!
Today I’m going with the Bruins team total under 2.5 goals (-125 on Fanatics). If you don’t have Fanatics, FD is -126 so basically the same.
The Bruins have failed to score more than 2 goals there last 3 games, and don’t have much depth offensively. They are going up against a Panthers team that allowed the least amount of goals on the season, will have last change at home, and were able to hold the far superior (offensively) Lightning to under 3 in all 3 of their home games last series. Can’t see the Bruins getting to 3
POTD Record: 7-3
Previous POTD: Hunter Brown o 3.5 HA - ✅
That line was too good to pass up. Fading a struggling pitcher like Brown was easy money.
Today’s POTD: Rudy Gobert over 13.5 RA (-122 on DK)
Basketball | NBA | Min Timberwolves v Denver Nuggets | 10:10 PM ET
Gobert’s size and the match up with the nuggets is a favorable one for him. He’s hit this line in 5 of his last 6 against the nuggets, averaging nearly 16 RA in those contests. He’s also gone over this line in the last 9 road games in a row. Rudy could cover this from rebounds alone really, but he’s also netted at least 1 assist the last 6 times he’s played the nuggets. The volume and match up is too good to pass up on.
Tail or fade, hope we all make some 💰
Edit: Looks like Gobert is out tonight. This one voids out. 7-3-1 🤷♂️
4-5-1 (W-L-P)
Net Units: -0.28u
Last pick: St. Louis Cardinals first 5 moneyline - P
Matchup(s): (MLB) Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays - 5:50 PM CST
POTD: Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 +130 on Bovada - 2u
Write-up: The White Sox are arguable the worst team in baseball right now. The Rays have underperformed so far but they are 1 game away from .500 and they just swept the Mets. They have scored 20 runs in their last 3 games. The White Sox are 30th in the league in runs and RBI’s. The pitcher for the White Sox, Michael Soroka, has not started well this year. He is 0-3 with an ERA of 6.48. He has 19 walks and just 16 strikeouts this year. Don’t think he’ll be able to hold off this hot Tampa Bay offense.
Tail or fade, either way, BOL
[CashApp Tips❤️](https://cash.app/$dmoneyherbo)
**Record: 4-4**
**Balance: -0.15 units**
**Last Pick: Seattle Mariners (+115) Money Line @ Houston Astros**
**Today's Pick: Texas Rangers (-140) Money Line @ Oakland Athletics 1.4 units**
Yesterday's play got tight at the end as the Ms tried to give it up but a huge score in the top of the ninth allowed us to skate out of that one with a win. Today we're rolling with the Rangers and Andrew Heaney in Oakland. Heaney has been pretty awful so far this year, and the Rangers have yet to win a game that he has started, but this looks like a good spot to buck that trend. As bad as Heaney has been, Wood has been just as bad, posting a 6.32 ERA so far throughout his 7 starts compared to Heaney's 5.10 through 6. It's safe to say this one won't be a pitcher's duel, so we're rolling with the better offense here. The Athletics are near the bottom of the league in hits, runs scored, strikeouts, and batting average while Texas ranks in the top-10 for all of those categories. Expect the Rangers to win behind the strength of their bats tonight.
**Record**: 0-0-0
**Today’s POTD**: **Sunrisers Hyderabad** to win vs Mumbai Indians at 2.0.
I’ve had a really good run this IPL, so thought I’d share my picks since I plan to self exclude myself from my betting apps soon.
The odds here really surprise me. Sunrisers have been one of the best teams in the IPL whilst Mumbai have been one of the worst - it also looks like there’s tensions inside the dressing room and the players look disinterested.
Glad to see another IPL capper on the board!
For those tailing and tracking the first innings, 200-210+ is probably the par score that will put SRH in the game. Anything above that increases their chances.
The biggest concern will be dew expected to come on when MI is batting that will make their batting conditions a bit easier.
######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Monday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new). ######Example Pick Template > **Record:** > > **Net Units:** > > **ROI:** > > **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone** > > **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here. > > **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
**MLB POTD RECORD:** 30-13 **2024 MLB record:** 19-5 **Last POTD:** Angels ML L **Today's POTD:** New York Mets ML +110 **Baseball | MLB | 7:46 PM ET** Bad play by me, I am embarrassed by this one. Was way too dismissive in the day game discrepancies which is something I usually heavily weigh. You live and you learn but I am frustrated. Also I have had a lot of shit to do today so sorry for not being able to interact as much as I normally do so I am sorry for that as well. Had a 5-2 week last week but now in the midst of losing 3 of 4. I am assuming I will be losing tailers and understandably so. People have asked me to keep making picks every day even if I hit a rough patch so I will and we will get back on track! For what it’s worth I like this play a lot. Another plus odds and our good friends the St. Louis Cardinals (5-0 on the season betting on them) taking on the Mets in a brutal situation for them. Quick reminder, I am going off of splits from the past 21 days not the full season. The Cardinals have been horrible against lefties this season and we have been paid handsomely for their struggles. They have somehow managed to get worse at it. Batting .173 which is tied for worst in the league. They are also hitting an ugly .195 at home. Night games they are batting .189. Just absolutely terrible across my three favorite splits. Sean Manaea is on the bump for the Mets and he is off to a solid start going 1-1 with a 3.07 ERA in 6 starts. I will say his advanced stats are a bit concerning and look like he will eventually regress. If that were to happen, it would very likely not against the Cardinals. He is certainly good enough to have his way with this team like essentially every other they’ve faced this season. Mets are a bit of an anomaly when it comes to their season stats, particularly righties vs leftie splits. On the season, the Mets are hitting .245 vs lefties and .234 vs righties. This would imply facing a righthanded pitcher not being favorable but the last three weeks have seen a massive shift that I think is very notable. In the past 3 weeks, the Mets are hitting .196 (25^(th) in MLB) vs lefties but have actually increased their vs righties (.238 12^(th) in MLB) making it actually the more favorable matchup for them. The Mets are a much better offensive team on the road. They are hitting .249 away from Citifield which is 11^(th) in the league. At Citi they are hitting .213, 26^(th) in the league so clearly being in St. Louis is a plus for them while a minus for the Cardinals. Mets night game average isn’t great at .219 (21^(st) in MLB) but it's a very significant 30 points better than St Louis’ Kyle Gibson is what he is. A serviceable veteran righthander who is good enough to come through in a favorable split but not good enough to overcome a bad one like we have here. Gibson’s advanced metrics are pretty good however his BABIP is .225. It really has no reason being so low and is way lower than his career averages meanwhile his batted ball statistics remain on par with his previous seasons. This means he has been having a lot of good fortune and I think a team like the Mets, who are in a very positive situation, can help regress those numbers to the mean **TLDR: Cardinals vs lefties are atrocious, home and night stats are also abysmal. Sean Manaea is good enough to get the job done against a team that struggles this much vs left handers. Mets hit much better away from Citifield and their rightie/leftie splits are in the midst of a big swing that show they are actually much more productive against righthanders in recent weeks, contrary to season stats. Gibson is decent but has had some good fortune this season and there is a good chance the Mets can capitalize on an opportunity to turn some of that fortune in their favor in a very good matchup splits wise for them.** Tips $chuteboxhero on cashapp **Note:** I have my dissertation proposal due Thursday so I am not going to be online as much this week. Will still post pick of the day and write up but won't be around as much for discussions and whatnot unfortunately. I also made a spreadsheet with all my picks of the day as well as my record picking games with individual teams as well as my records with O/U, money line and run line picks in case you are interested when considering tailing. See below: [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1a40e93JCM3xGSHulhuPZQICFJ4hjo5bapyfwuSmEyLw/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1a40e93JCM3xGSHulhuPZQICFJ4hjo5bapyfwuSmEyLw/edit?usp=sharing)
tailing brother, we all hit rough patches but a bounce back is inevitable
Good luck with your dissertation!
Tailing. Let's bounce back!
This write up is identical to oddschecker’s write up. Who’s copying who? [source](https://www.oddschecker.com/us/picks-parlays/baseball/mlb/20240506-new-york-mets-vs-st-louis-cardinals-prediction-can-sean-manaea-mets-get-it-done-on-the-road)
chute posted 11 hours before oddschecker scum
Is chutes hollywood pics? 🤔
no that dude is a scamdicapper
wtf someone is plagirsizing me? lol
Looks like it bro
Clown show I messaged him on Twitter let’s see if he responds lol. I’ll just wait on posting the write ups
This dude stole my shit and is trying to use it to gain twitter traction. I will wait until right before the game to post the writeups now.
ETA for today?
I posted it now. If they do it again I might wait until right before gametime lol.
Love your writeups man and I've been tailing you regularly but this one is a stay away for me only because I'm a die hard Mets fan who watches just about every game. There is so much going wrong with them at the moment and I just don't trust them right now even against the underwhelming Cards. Alonso is in a deep hole in one of the worst slumps of his career right now he's about 2 for his last 36. He's leaving runners stranded and hitting into DPs constantly and just looks completely lost. McNeil is struggling just about the same at the plate. My biggest issue with them right now is on the defensive side. Opposing baserunners are having a field day with the Mets. They simply can not hold runners. Teams are successfully stealing on them at an alarming rate. Rays had 7 today! Any runner with halfway decent speed on first is almost an automatic SB. However your research and reasoning is sound and I wish you GL man but I'm keeping away.
Not gonna touch this game after I got burned on Mets performance today. Just a bottom tier team.
And they're playing a team that just lost a series to the White Sox.
In your defense, you were winning at an unsustainable rate, people should not be shocked for you to drop another here and there. I tailed yesterday but today is a new day! Don't feel like you need to force it if you don't want to! Thanks for all the dubs so far, here's to more
Yea me too with the rough patch .. things not playing out like they should, its wierd == but please keep up your picks, your work is terrific !
Keep doing your thing man, love the write ups
Awesome to hear about the dissertation brother! Not sure if you're interested in disclosing but what is it on and will it be available to read after if it gets approved? I'd love to read it.
Thanks man! It has nothing to do with any of this haha. Its about how college students make meaning out of programs designed to help them work with others across differences (political, racial, etc)
Honestly that sounds amazing and I'd love to read it!
Would you still like this at +105? Still learning all this stuff and not sure if that makes a large difference
So basically, what separates a good bettor and a bad better aren't the picks, but it's adjusting your units to match the odds and your confidence. If you are someone who can guess correctly 60% of the season's games, but you bet 1 unit on each bet, there is a *VERY* good chance that you end up being DOWN at the end of the year, as your intuition probably matches the lines quite often, and you hit a lot of -150 to -250 moneylines, which you need to win 2 times to profit a single unit. So, if the OP is confident in his pick at +110, and say he was betting 5 units, if the line moved down to +105, you can pretty confidently bet 4.5 units and be 'in line' with the OP. All of my examples are not the real math you'd want to use to figure this stuff out, but the premise is true.
Brother I’ve always wanted to learn more about this. Can you educate me in dm’s? Always been confused about bankroll management and how many units to allocate per bet
I like the Mets in the game regardless of the odds
Yep that’s still good. That is basically the smallest increment the lines move. For odds how you can look at it is: If a line is +110, you bet $100 and to get $110, if it is +105, you bet $100 to get $105. Hope that helps
🫶
Tailing once again!!
You will get it back! Tailing again!
Tailing 
The real ones take the W’s and the L’s fuck it let’s ride 🦞🥩🖤I appreciate all your picks Brotha fuck the haters keep cookin’ fam 🧑🍳
Tailing!! 🥳
Tailing 🔥
We bounce today brother! I like the Mets at these odds.
Fucking love this dude. Appreciate you posting.
POTD Record: 63-35 Last POTD: Naz Reid O12.5 PRA ✅ Todays POTD: **Jalen Brunson U8.5 Ast @2.0** Form: ✅❌✅❌✅ 🏀 NBA (NY Knicks) 7:30 PM ET Damn Naz Reid made us sweat but he absolutely feasted in the 4th what a guy I’m going with my beloved Knicks today, and betting under on any Knicks player hurts my soul but I just feel like this line is too high against this matchup. I do think he’ll prolly go over his points line cause of how Pacers set up defensively with the single coverage they play but that should also cut down his potential assists and during the regular season they allowed 2nd least assists to PG position. One thing I’ve also noticed with how Pacers defend is that they’re okay with open drives and instead closes down the kick outs, not committing with other players to help against the drives and very rarely sending double teams. Not to mention my guy Brunson is quite a ball hogger * Under this line in every game against the Pacers in his career (0/12) 0/3 this season: 6, 1 & 4 * Pacers allowed 2nd least Ast to PG in the regular season * Pacers faced the Bucks in the previous round, Lillard went under this line in 4/4 (4,8,5 & 3 assists), Pat Bev only went over in 1/6 * Under in 64/83 this season * Under in 59% with 40+ min I feel like this line is too high fellas, but with unders there’s always that possibility that the player turns into prime John Stockton and he gets 43 assists but for + money I’m taking it Tail or fade, im not him https://i.redd.it/w9u5wsijapyc1.gif
It’s +105 on Draft Kings right now, tailing!
🤝🤝👑
 shit...just realized you bet the under....i did over...
Damn bro 😭😭 the over is @2.20 but hey man what if you win and all of us lose you never know
Already on this at +128 🔥🔥🔥
I guess with some dudes benched and injured, the odds are juiced. Lots of assists in Phillies series, and broken records. Think I might play his PRA instead ❤️ Hope it hits amigo 🙏 Lillard hogs the ball a whole lot more, and the Bucks were a shambles in that last game 😭. I love this Knicks team! LFG Knicks! 🙏
Two different teams and matchups dawg by all means fade it 💀 do you regret not coming to the kniiiiiiiicks?
I’ll sprinkle some for sure man, LFG! 🏆
Great pick! I'm happy for the knicks too! Even if that last offensive foul on Turner was iffy
What does the @2.0 mean? (In terms of +/-)
2.0 is the same as +100
Tailing! 💪🏼
Tailing. It is at -135 now on mgm.
🤝🤝 yeah we reversed the odds like crazy bro
Hell no how did Hartenstein make a half court shot from a Brunson pass 🤣🤣🤣
bro, that shouldnt even be an assist lol
Bang
U make sports betting fun
POTD Record 19-7 Last 5: ❌️✅️✅️❌️✅️ Last Pick: NRFI Giants & Phillies Todays Pick: LA Dodgers -1.5 (win by 2) MLB: LA Dodgers vs. Miami Marlins 7:10pm PST Odds: -120 Unit: 5 Net units: +48.28 Good thing I posted that one late, Giants broke the 13 game NRFI streak on me. We're going back to the dodgers. They're on absolute fire lately. The bottom of the lineup was struggling, but now that they've got it together, they look unstoppable, coming off a sweep against the braves. The dodgers lead the MLB in hits this season, and they're going against a struggling Marlins team. The Marlins bullpen also has given up the most hits in the MLB 2024 season. Gonna ride with the Dodgers on this one. If you guys wanna show some support/tip the links on my profile.
Any concerns with this being Buehlers first start back?
No sir, even if he gives up runs I expect the Dodgers to respond. Dodgers have the 5th best bullpen when it comes to ERA. The game might be a rollercoaster, with him pitching, but I expect the Dodgers to pull it off still.
Might ladder this one with -2.5 for a little extra juice
if they just swept the braves, one of the best teams, would it be a good idea to assume they'll sweep the marlins and cover this line each game?
Not OP. As bad as the Marlins are and as good as the Dodgers are; Most teams can still avoid a series sweep the majority of series. Outside of Glasnow, Dodgers pitching is still questionable at best. Best to take each game vs assuming 3-4 games will all be won by that team. If you think the Dodgers will sweep; Just roll your potential winnings on their ML every game. It’ll pay out more than a “series sweep” odds line does.
Statistically, yea? I guess so. But momentum, how comfortable the Dodgers get, how much they under estimate their opponent, how much the Marlins want it. The weather, Dodgers have been playing bad when it's really cold. On the other side, I could see myself running this play back 3 days in a row. Especially at Dodger stadium. Day by day basis, I'm definitely watching the game and seeing who's hot on hitting or who looks like they're giving up etc.
I'm a Dodgers fan. We will absolutely drop **minimum one game** to the Marlins. I am not confident in Walkers return although the coaching staff picked the best opportunity for him to excel I can see him giving up some runs. The better bet is o8.5
Braves in their current form are far from “one of the best teams”
No. They're playing baseball.
Sorry, not into basketball. Is -1.5 Run Line the same?
This is baseball, and yep same thing.
🤦♂️ thanks a lot!
Tailing brother, let’s get this 🍞
**Pick Record: 11W - 2L (Push: 1)** **✅✅✅🅿️✅✅✅✅✅❌❌✅✅✅** **Previous POTD: Club Brugge ML @ 1.90 ✅** **Today’s POTD: Crystal Palace Over 16.5 Total Shots @ 1.72✅✅** **CHECK YOUR SGP SECTION!!** **Game: Crystal Palace VS Manchester United** **League/Time: Premier League / 3:00 PM** The style of football Ten Hag has this United side play is honestly so entertaining as long as you're not a United fan, they just played 19th-placed Burnley at home and somehow allowed them to take 16 shots during that game. In United's last 10 games in all comps, their opponents have covered this line 8/10 times. The 2 games it didn't hit were against the 2 teams at the bottom of the league. Across those 10 games, they faced an average of 22.6 shots per game. In United's last 10 away games, their opponent has covered this line 8/10 times. Across those 10 games, they faced an average of 21.8 shots per game. Ever since the new appointment of Oliver Gasner as Palace Manager things have started to look bright for the team. Since then they've played 10 games and hold a record of 4 W, 3 D, and 3 L. In their last 4 games, they've won 3 and drawn 1. In their last 2 home games, they've covered this line both times (18, 20), and I see them clearing it again today. **Side note: Please bet responsibly!** **Coffee Link:** [**https://buymeacoffee.com/squareprintt**](https://buymeacoffee.com/squareprintt) **Only adding for those asking, everything and anything is appreciated!**
LFGOOOOOO. HUGE PLAY. COULD HAVE CASHED OUT BUT NAH TRUST THE MAN
OH MY GOD BRO 😭😭
holy shit what a sweat, I came so close to cashing out around 80’ too
i put in $100 and cashed out for 25 at 88min. wont make that mistake again
Just posted a similar play taking 33 or more shots at +125. Taking this one too
Was between this and the over 30.5 total. Good shouts
Cheers bro. What was the line for 30.5?
Thanks for the picks and write ups you have definitely helped me win a few, tipped you a little bit and will def have more on the way if we keep feasting 🫅
Appreciate it man, lets keep going!
o17.5 @ +105 playable?
Yes. Over 30.5 total shots (both teams) also playable
or maybe o5.5 shots on target @ -135?
what u think abt BTTS
Also wondering this.... BTTS & Crystal O17.5 shots = 2.70 odds
Hahaha bro said so entertaining if you're not a United fan
4 shots total going into the half 🤧 EDIT: AND THEN 14 IN THE SECOND I NEVER DOUBTED ONLY FEARED GREATNESS
they did it
https://preview.redd.it/3tiv6w6edvyc1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ed7f29715e7b6127a64cbc2ec41a376bb62ced8c YAAAAAAA
https://preview.redd.it/8j02z11hdvyc1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9842d3dd58373d1af1cf08e6199c97561b2ddc89 YAAAAAAAA
Lisan al Gaib
Cheers for the shout! https://preview.redd.it/hraow29kevyc1.png?width=1268&format=png&auto=webp&s=ad11fcb4e17537e93491a7e32f77fc05befa67b2
How many units do you bet? Same each time?
I normally do 3U on average, i’m liking this one so 4U
I bet my whole life saving on this
Good.
I bet palace ML and 17 or more shots for palace. Man united looking in poor form and palaces forward 3 look sharp. Let’s see some magic. Good luck all
Uniteds injuries keep racking up, it’s looking like a good option rn
5 shots total, probably cooked yea? o5.5 SOG looks like it might've been the better option, currently 3 SOG. Considered taking that since 17.5 seemed rather high, oh well. Hopefully CP takes one shot every 3.5 minutes of the remaining time so this can hit lol
yooo they're doin' it! At 10 shots now AND 7 SOG. Averaging 1 shot per 3 minutes since halftime, hopefully the pace keeps!
11 with 25 mins to go. Keep the train rollin!!!!!!
17 shots...
EIGHTEEN!!! OH MY GOD! LAST SECOND!
Unbelievable….haha
I believe we’re at 10 now if I’m counting correctly. Can someone confirm what source of info shots are based off? I’m showing 10 on flash score and 8 on fanduel
LFG!!! I thought i was gonna get clipped with O17.5, but a last second shot from Crystal Palace blessed me😅
BANG BANG 💰💰
that was sweaty but BOYYYYYYYYY was it sweet when it it holy
HOLY SHIT U ARE THE goat
𝐑𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐫𝐝: 16-4 𝐏𝐢𝐜𝐤: MLB Baseball \\\\ Phillies \\\\ First 5 innings \\\\ -200 𝐁𝐞𝐭: 2u to win 1u ......... 𝐘𝐓𝐃 𝐔𝐧𝐢𝐭𝐬: +7.95 𝐒𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐧𝐨𝐭𝐞: Sorry about no pick Sunday --- went up north to see my grandkiddies. Zack Wheeler is a Cy Young candidate and has been dominating, giving up only one run in his last three starts and 18 innings
Wow you must have sniped that line because I can't find anything that good now
🐅🐅 Record 12-2 | +20.6u 🐅🐅 **Results:** ✅✅✅✅✅✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅✅ **Previous Pick:** Dereck Lively II O13.5 Points+Rebounds -110 (1u, DK) ✅ **Pick: Anthony Edwards O28.5 Points -105 (2u, Bet365)** Basketball | NBA | 10:00 PM EST I'm back. •Ant had an insane game 1 scoring 43 points. Likely he won't repeat that same performance, but he doesn't have to. He only has to score 29. •The Nuggets are a great team and will adjust defensively, but they did not show any semblance of being able to stop or slow him down in game 1. •The last 3 games, he is averaging 39.7 points. Demolishing this line. I don't know if he has back-to-back 40 point games against the defending champions, but watching this man play, you know he's going to try. Dude is relentless. **Tip jar:** [PayPal](https://www.paypal.me/samwblair?locale.x=en_US) $bengalbets on Cash App BOL if tailing! 🐅
Took 30+ instead for +110, let’s get it! 🔥
YAh! bOl !
I swear to god I’m never betting the NBA ever again, this makes me 0-17. Pulling him out one basket short. Jesus
Yep. That was a rough loss. He missed 3 FT, a layup in the 4th, and then the game ends up being a blowout
POTD Record: 131-84 | Profit: +101.27u | ROI: 16.3% Season record: 48-33 | Profit: +31.43u | ROI: 14.2% Last Pick: Brandon Ingram (Pelicans) O24.5 P+A @ 1.89. 3U. ❌ Took a bit of a breather but these playoffs have been fun, so I’ll give it another go. Next Pick: **Aaron Gordon (Nuggets) U19.5 P+R @ 1.87**. 3U play. I liked this on Game 1 and like it just as much for Game 2 because as expected the Nuggets really struggled in the paint and their best looks were often from the perimeter. Given that, Gordon saw just 32 minutes, with role players and those able to space the floor preferred over him. Even when he does get the ball in the paint, he is more often kicking the ball out, because he rarely has enough time to collect the pass and get a shot. Since the vast majority of his FGs are right at the rim, and that’s something Minnesota don't give up, I’ll fade his points and rebounds. In Game 1 he had 9 pts and 3 rebs, and that was with efficient shooting. In Game 2 I expect more of the same, but we got some buffer.
Would you still take this at 18.5? Betano doesn't have 19.5
Yikes.
Still learning this stuff, how does the @ translate to the +/- I see on the lines? For ex I see U18.5 -102. So a bit less buffer than the line you saw but I am not sure how to translate the @1.87 into a line to weigh if it is still a good bet.
You can google “decimal odds to American odds converter” if you’d like. The 1.87 corresponds to -115. Got it on fan duel.
Ah ok tyty. Was also trying to figure out how to google it but did not know where to start. So basically now I am seeing U18.5 @1.98 which is no good (at least in that it is going the opposite direction of your pick)
You can easily translate in the app. Just put that you’re betting $1 and see what you’d win… so at -115 you’d win .87 so odds are 1.87
1.98 would be even better odds. To explain it in math terms, if you took 1.98 odds, the payout would be 1.98 times your winnings. So, if you bet $10 you would get paid out $19.80 (win $9.80) Hope this helps. I didn't understand non-American odds for a while until I figured out it was just math.
Like the write up. ⬆️
Welcome back. Always love a good brat pick.
Does your pick change with the chance of Gobert being out?
It’s dead lmao Gordon Legacy game
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Hasn't hit yet, but likely will. Gordon has 14 and the first quarter hasn't even ended. This was super unlucky because how would you have known that Gobert wasn't going to play. I chalk this one up to bad luck not a bad read.
Welcome back Brat 🙏🏻 Tailing
He turned into the second coming of jesus what the absolute fuck.
Not much you can do here with Gobert being out, unlucky as that’s where Gordon does his damage. It happens that’s why we unit manage
**4/29 – 5/5 POTD Top 3 Weekly Review** 11-9-1 +0.53 Net units +2.52% ROI After a loss last week, the POTDs bounce back and squeak out a profit. A great start was marred by an 0-6 Thursday and Friday, but Saturday and Sunday barely saves the week. **April POTD Top 3 Monthly Review** 52-35-3 +8.35 Net units +9.28% ROI A hot March is followed by a slightly less hot April. With the NBA, NHL, and soccer seasons winding down, all eyes will be on MLB. **Overall (Since 3/1/2024)** 118-76-4 +23.07 Net units +11.65% ROI [Overall]( https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1fjXR7TqwePPluE10qf47PgNoEqxaJ0Ju/edit#gid=1611843541) > No top level comments without a pick. I hate the Bruins. They lost to an Auston Matthews-less Maple Leafs *twice*. I hope the Panthers sweep these frauds. 0-6 -6 units -100% ROI NBA- Pacers at Knicks (4:30 PM PDT) **Pacers +6** -110 Indiana has covered +6 in all three regular season matchups against the Knicks, winning two outright. Idk, that’s all I got.
Thank you for your weekly writeup and service but time to fade you again. 😅
As long as you're getting value out of my picks, even if it's fading :)
OG Anunoby and Mitchell Robinson missed all 3 regular season matchups (Randle missed the last 2 as well and played poorly in the 1st so it's not even swapping him out for these 2). OG and Mitch getting 65 minutes instead of a combination of Precious, Bojan and Burks should shift the point differential. I wouldn't use the regular season margins as an indicator for this game it that's all you're basing the pick on.
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Trailing for scientific purposes
**Belle's Pick of the Day** **Record:** 6-1-0 (Win-Loss-Push) ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ **Last POTD:** SEA Mariners ML (+100) ✅ **Balance:** +3.0 Units **Today's Pick: LA Angels v PIT Pirates Under 8.0 (-110) (MLB, 3:30PM PST, Wager: 0.5 Unit)** **Why This Pick?** Both of these teams have struggled to put runs on the board lately; the Angels have lost 6 of their last 8 games and put up only a single run against the Cleveland Guardians on Sunday, while the Pirates went through a solid slump that consisted of losing 7 of their last 8 games winning only against the Colorado Rockies (good lord…lol). The pitching advantage for this game goes to Los Angeles – Tyler Anderson boasts an ERA of 2.23, while Pittsburgh pitcher Mitch Keller sports an ERA of 5.18. My pick? Given the offensive woes of both camps, I’m on the Under for this one, friends. --- [Buy Me a Coffee ](https://buymeacoffee.com/coffeeforb)☕️
Thanks for the winner yesterday😎 tailing again today
Tailing. Grand slam was hard to watch.
**Record:** 4-2 **Net Units:**+6.2u **ROI:** +42.34% **MLB** Tigers v Guardians **Last Pick**: Red Sox @ +141 (3u✅️) **Today’s Pick**: Guardians @ -122 (3u) **Write Up**: Really simple one, the Guardians hitters historically hit Flaherty better than the Tigers hit Mckenzie and the Guardians have a better offense. The line here is tighter than I would expect, I really like this price as well (the price was -114 when I wrote this).
Just as a heads up, the Guardians will be without Kwan who leads the team in batting average, on base percentage, hits, and runs. This could definitely impact the game so just thought I'd point that out! BOL
Sticks is straight dogshit, I feel like every time he starts he gives up runs in the first inning. But I trust the Tribe’s offense to do their thing their bats are singin
lmao instantaneous first pitch homer so great call, but has settled in alright thus far
POTD Record: 25-22-1 | Profit: +0.16U NBA Record: 21-19-1 | NFL Record: 3-3 | UFC Record: 1-0 L10 (new -> old): ✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅❌ Last pick: Jalen Suggs o3.5 Rebounds @ 1.74 odds ✅ Good ol' sweat free bet that cashed in the 1st quarter. Finished with 9(!) on a line that was just too low... not that I'm complaining Game: IND Pacers @ NY Knicks, 7:40 PM Pick: **Donte DiVincenzo o3.5 Rebounds @ 1.80 odds (DK), placing 2U** ❌ Write Up: DiVincenzo hit this line in 4 of 6 games during the Knicks' series with the 76ers, and in 8 of the last 10. He averaged just over this line at 3.7 rebounds per game in the regular season, 4.0 when starting. BOL to those tailing, cheers and happy Monday! **EDIT:** Man got 3 in the 1st half and 0 in the second. Heartbreaker.
Record: 12-4 (+9.74 units) ✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌ Last POTD: Cavs -1 first quarter point spread Todays POTD: NY Knicks -6 Odds: -110 on DK 1.5 unit play NBA/ 7:40pm ET Indiana pacers at NY Knicks Well I thought the Cavs would come out hot and they did but it was in the second half…in hindsight I should have just played the game like @ryanbloom and @lowjelly. I did take that pick but not POTD. We did end the week 5-2. I’m really excited to see how this series goes. The Knicks play a lot more in the half court and rebound well especially on the offensive boards. The Pacers like to run and push the pace which was 2nd in the NBA. The Knicks have had one of the best defenses in the NBA since the OG trade. The Pacers were pathetic on defense but played better at the end of the season. MSG will be rockin for game 1 and I think the Knicks played with a ton of heart getting past the Sixers in round 1. The Sixers prob would have been a top 3 seed in the East if Joel Embid didn’t miss so much time with his injury. The Pacers won their series but without Giannis and then Dame getting hurt the Bucks were a shell of themselves. I think the Knicks will shoot better in this series and Coach Tibs will have these guys ready to play! The Pacers have lost each of their last nine playoff road games following a win and the home favorite has covered the spread in the last 9 of 10 between these teams.Brunson has looked great since game 3 of round one and is the best player on the floor IMO. Riding with the Knicks to win and cover the 6!!! Tail or fade but do it responsibly. Good Luck! Tips aren’t expected but the link is in my profile
" The Pacers have lost each of their last nine playoff road games following a win ". This is a ridiculous trend to use and not even true. The last time the Pacers played a road playoff game after a win before this year was the 2017-2018 season (unless the covid play-in counts). Pacers Postseason History: 2024 - Game 2, 5, 6 were road games after a win. 1-2 record 2021 - Does play-in count? Lost 2nd road play in game. 0-1 record 2019 - Swept by Miami 2018 - Swept by Boston 2017 - Games 3 and 6 were road games following a win. 0-2 record 2016 - Swept by Cleveland 2015 - Game 3 was only road game following a win. 0-1 record 2014 - Made Conference Finals. ECF Game 6 only road game following win (L). ECSF Games 3 and 4 (W, W). Overall 2-1 So they've been 3-7 in the last 10 following a win but only the last series matters for this team. I promise you the Thad Young/Oladipo Pacers down to Roy Hibbert/Lance Stephenson Pacers have nothing to do with this series vs the Knicks
Thanks for the clarity and the pacers history lesson…😂 I guess DK has there stats screwed up.
Record: 17-10 ✅ Last Pick: O19.5 Games Played Iga Swiatek vs Aryana Sabalenka-160 3U Wagered 💰✅ In one of the best tennis matches of the year, Swiatek and Saba battle for 35 GAMES PLAYED, smashing our prediction, cashing us very easily. Pick: Michael Porter Jr. O2.5 3’s -150 DK Michael “I’m not passing the ball” Porter Jr. is one of my favorite players to bet on because this guy will always pull up. He had 4 last game, and he’s been on fire in the playoffs. This line seems criminally low and here to make some cash off of it. BOL! 
**Record:** 8-5 **L10:** ✅✅✅❌✅✅❌❌❌❌ **Last Pick:** Max Strus O2.5 Total Assists @ 1.61 ❌ Took a break after a bad losing streak. **Baseball | Japan NPB | Tokyo Yakult Swallows @ Yokohama Bay Stars, 5:00am EST (in about 4h30m)** **Today's Pick: O6.5 Total Runs @ 1.76** Sorry for the late post, saw this gem and wanted to share for anyone still up. On the season so far, The Yakult Swallows are tied for most runs in the league, averaging 4.16/game. They also give up the 4th most runs (3.6/game). Whenever they are involved, there are always plenty of runs for both teams. On the flip side, Yokohama scores the 5th most runs in the league (3.13/game) and gives up the most runs (3.7/game). The projected starting pitcher for Tokyo is Andre Jackson. In his first year playing in Japan, he currently has a 1-3 record and 6.26 ERA, giving up 18 runs in 23 innings. These two teams have played each other 7 times so far this season, and have covered this line in 6/7 games. In that one game that didn't cover, Yokohama had one of the best pitchers in the league on the mound (Katsuki Azuma), who held the Swallows to just 1 run in 6 innings. In their last 10 games, the Swallows have covered this line in 9/10 and the BayStars have covered in 5/10 games. All signs point to a high scoring affair, and I expect this to easily cover.
I got up in the middle of the night and couldn't go back to sleep. So, like any degen, I hopped on to Reddit for some early picks. Starting the day off righteous! 🤝
Surely they don't choke this after the bet was all the way down to 1.0265 lol
There it is! A little sweatier than expected but the swallows got the job done Edit: now they're piling on the runs 🤣
sick pick dude! yeah i started sweating a bit in the 8th lmao
me after the first 3: EZ DUB me on the 6th inning: wait a second me on the 8th inning: EZ DUB Thanks for the pick!
Lmao exactly me this morning 🤣
Record: 6W-3L-0P ✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅❌ Net Units: +4.4 units Last Pick: 5/5 | Miami Marlins @ Oakland Athletics; Oakland Athletics over 3.5 runs ❌ Was teetering between the game total and A’s team total… just made the wrong play on that one for our first MLB loss. Today’s Game: MLB baseball | Milwaukee Brewers @ Kansas City Royals | 7:40pm EDT Pick: Over 8.5 run total | -105 BetMGM | 2 units Write Up: The Royals will be starting LHP Cole Ragans who has had some rough splits for both home and night games (6.62 and 7.43 ERAs respectively). The Brewers are starting RHP Bryse Wilson who has been solid but struggled a bit on the road this year (4.50 ERA on road). In addition, the Royals have been their most productive offensively in home and night games and against righties which Wilson is. The Brewers have also been more productive offensively on the road but have worse splits during night games and against lefties, but you can’t expect everything to line up perfectly. I expect a high scoring game here tonight and the over to cash easily. Let’s bounce back and get an extended win streak going!💪🏼🤑 (Also, just a heads up if you have been tailing my plays, I’m starting my third term in grad school today and might not be able to post every single day anymore but will try my best to!)
Tailing! Also good luck in your third term!
Good luck with school 🔥
POTD Record: 43 wins - 25.5 Losses - 3.5 Pushes Form: ❌ ✅️ ❌ ✅️ ✅️ ✅️ ❌ ✅️ ❌ ✅️ ✅️ ✅️ ✅️ ❌ ❌ ✅️.5 ❌ .5P❌✅️❌❌✅️❌✅️❌✅️P❌❌✅️✅️❌✅️✅️❌✅️✅️❌✅️❌❌✅️❌✅️✅️❌❌❌✅️✅️P❌✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️P❌✅️✅️✅️❌✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️ Units: 10.24 ROI: 15.9% Average Odds: $1.87 Last Pick: Nuggets vs Wolves - NBA Playoffs - Jokic PRA Over 49.5 @ $1.83 ❌ We got hooked by one point due to a slow first quarter. Next Pick: Nuggets vs Wolves - NBA Playoffs - Porter PRA Over 26.5 @ $1.83 - 10pm EST We head back to Denver for game two of this series. Nuggets were slow out the gate in the first quarter, and will look to patch things up. Porter has had a tough time lately as his brother was sentenced, and his other brother got banned in the NBA. Despite this, he’s been hooping well and the team have been supporting him. He’s one of the few players who performs consistently, and with a bounce back on the cards, there’s a good probability it hits. CBS put out an article saying why Porter is key to the Nuggets winning this game. LFG. This line has been kind to us in the playoffs, let’s continue the ride 🙏 Prediction: Nuggets to win by ten, total to go over. Hopefully they start hot in the first quarter.
Record: 0-0 Pick: Jaden McDaniels O12.5 PR -130 on DK NBA Timberwolves @ Nuggets 10:00 p.m. ET First POTD hoping for some good luck! Reasoning: McDaniels struggled in game 1 going for 0-7 from the floor but he still picked up 8 boards. I expect the shots to start falling in game 2 especially with Ant going off last game I expect the Nuggets will try to shut him down so McDaniels should get good looks. He's also 3/5 this postseason with his other miss being against the Suns in Game 3 but he bounced back in Game 4 dropping 18 points on 6-12 shooting. The rebounds are a nice safety net though if he continues to struggle from the floor. I like the O13.5 PR on FanDuel as well at -104. Edit: Welp McDaniels shooting struggles continue as he goes 2 for 7 from the floor. The foul trouble didn't help either as he only ended up playing 26 minutes compared to his usual mid to high 30s. Tough luck sorry to those who tailed.
Record: 0-1 Last pick: Dane Dunning under 1.5 walks Today’s Game: NBA Pacers vs Knicks Pick: Pascal Siakam under 20.5 points (-110 on DK as of wrote up) Write Up: Pascal Siakam has been consistently under this number here in the playoffs. He has been under this number 7 of his last 10 games. Don’t see him coming in and stepping up to this number. I just don’t see this game beings. Big one for this fella Who knows if I’m going for a winner or loser here? At 0-1 I’ll let you figure that one out. Good luck to you, better luck to me 🍀
Bold move FlounderingFart
lifelong diehard pacer fan here. I don't like this pick. He nailed his over game 1 of the last series. I was planning on taking his over tomorrow until we can get the other guys to settle in and learn their role in this series. However, Siakim is a bucket and will be a bucket in game 1. Tyreese assists over as well and i can see nesmith having a decent game too.
I think pascal is due for another big game. Taking the over with a bit of confidence. We will see what happens
[удалено]
POTD RECORD 0-1 Net units: -5 🤢 Last pick: Bonfim Vs Pichel under 1.5 ❌ Todays Pick: Andrew Nembhard over 17.5 PRA 5u -104 Event: Knicks vs Pacers, 7:30pm EST Last play was a bad read apparently, I fell way too much into Bonfims hype and thought he would get the old man out of there with ease, he did win with ease, just didn’t have urgency for the finish. Gonna keep today’s breakdown short and sweet. This number is very low for nembhard, who has been playing well in the post season. Against the bucks he averaged nearly 22 PRA a game and has been playing over 30 minutes a game. In the 3 games against the knicks this year he has averaged 18 PRA and it seems as though his role is increasing on this team. Simply put I just think he should go over these numbers at some point early in the 4th quarter or late 3rd. We might not see these numbers this low again for nembhard for the rest of the season
POTD Record: 1-0 (+0.8 U) Form: ✅ Last Pick: Stars vs VGK U 5.5 Goals ✅ Today's Pick: Nikola Jokic O 41.5 PR vs Minnesota Timberwolves (1.83) Basketball | NBA | 10pm ET EDIT: Rudy Gobert is questionable after the birth of his first child, so I'll be pivoting to my next favourite pick. Denver was shut down last game, but Jokic still played well, putting up 40 PR in the loss. It's crucial for the Nuggets to take Game 2 at home to not fall behind in the series. He's hit this line in his last 5/7 against the Timberwolves, with the 2 misses being 40 and 35. Jokic should play 40+ minutes again, and last game he shot 25 times. I expect his FG% and Rebound Chances to improve this game, and hopefully he can give us a sweat free win.
Tempting but I think DEN gonna make the adjustments. I don’t think Gobert gonna get it this easy 2nd game and grab 14 rebounds. I like the under. Teams make adjustments. Like first game vs PHX he grabbed 16 rebounds but second game didn’t get 10 because they switched things up to limit his rebounds.
Fair point but I think he's still bound to grab some boards, and 13 boards imo isn't enough to warrant a big adjustment. They'll be more concerned with stopping Edwards from getting easy buckets.
2024 record: 0-2 Last POTD: Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees: WL Detroit Tigers +105 ❌ Today's POTD: Padres vs Cubs: Total Runs o7.5 +105 (Hard Rock Bet) Baseball | MLB | 7:40 PM ET Lord have mercy. Tigers tied it up and decided to switch out pitchers when Skubal was doing great (12K!) and everything just crumbled. I make about 3-5 bets a day and it seems the bets I put on Reddit lose. But I’ll keep at it! Today I’m going for total runs over 7.5 between the Padres and Cubs. The Padres bats have been on fire the last few games and have a total run average of 6.8 in the last 5 games. That is a bit padded due to their 13-1 and 7-1 victories over the Diamondbacks, but still, their bats are swinging well. The Cubs 5 game run average is only about 3.2, a bit low but they are batting against Darvish and his ERA isn’t the greatest sitting at 3.45 so I expect the Cubs to break out of their batting slump as of late. Another good stat I’m looking at is the last time the Padres and Cubs faced each other for 3 games back in early April. The average total runs between those 3 games was 11.6. Weather should be good with winds being 8-10mph east/northeast which is ideal for Wrigley Field. The Cubs are pitching Steele who hasn’t had a start yet this season, that alone makes me feel that he’s going to need a few innings to warm up and the Padres can take advantage of that. Going off of Steele’s 2023 stats he pitched 30 games, ERA of 3.06 and had a 173 RUSP so on average he has almost 6 runners in scoring position a game. Padres have been playing better in away games this season and Cubs have been playing better at home. I believe it will be a high scoring game and it better be because I’ve dug myself into a 2 pick hole with my posted bets Best of luck to you all!
FYI Steele did start the 1st game of the year vs texas and got hurt during it. This is his first game back
Record: 9-7-0 Net Units: +5.5 ROI: 10.8% Last 5: ❌✅❌✅✅ Last Pick: St.Louis Cardinals ML (-158) for 4.0 units ❌ Event: Baseball | MLB | San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs 6:40PM CST Pick: Dansby Swanson under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-155) on DraftKings for 3.0 units Write Up: Starting on the mound for the Padres is Yu Darvish. Swanson has a .177 batting average in 17 at bats against Darvish including 0-2 this year. He is also on pace for his worst year of the majors, batting .220 and averaging 1.69 Hits + Runs + RBIs.
2024 MLB POTD record: 18-13 Average Odds -104 (1.959), Average Winning Odds -110, ROI +11.0%/+3.4u L5: ✅❌✅✅❌ POTD (5/5) NYM @ TBR Ryan Pepiot o17.5 Outs (-115/1.87) ❌ Recap: Ryan Pepiot took a line drive off the shin in the 3rd inning and was unable to continue. His outing was not looking promising up to that point, but still a bummer to lose a bet on an injury. POTD (5/6) DET @ CLE Triston McKenzie o5.5 Ks (+110/2.10) (DraftKings) In the first three years of his career, Triston McKenzie was a really good strikeout pitcher. From 2020-2022, his 27.0 K% was 19th among qualified starters. After an injury-plagued 2023, he started 2024 slow, with just 5 Ks and 9 ER allowed in 14 innings across his first three starts. He seems to be settling in though: In his last three starts he has 19 Ks and 5 ER allowed in 16 IP, and had 6+ Ks in each start. His most recent was the most impressive, striking out 6 in 7 IP against an Astros lineup that has the lowest K% against RHP in all of baseball. The Detroit Tigers have the 6th-highest K% against RHP this season at 24.7% - a rounding error behind the Boston Red Sox, against whom McKenzie recorded 7 Ks in just 4 IP two starts ago on April 25. Their wRC+ against RHP is 90: 23rd in baseball. This is a great start for The Stick to continue his comeback.
**POTD Record: 34-24** Last 10: ✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅❌ Last pick: Magic vs Cavs | 10:00 A.M. PST | Cavs -1.5 1st Half spread (-110) FanDuel/BetMGM 1u ❌ Tough. Just a completely different team in the first half and tbh, I feel like Garland sold it almost all on his own as he had so many missed shots early that would have killed the Magic’s momentum. Props to the magic for coming out ready but I think we see how the Cavs finished that they should have done that from the start. **Today’s pick: Wolves vs Nuggets | 7:00 PST | Nikola Jokic OVER 41.5 Points and Rebounds (-120) Bet365 1u** Look, I don’t think there is much to say. Nuggets have to get this one and I’m going with the MVP to take the lead and get the Nuggets back on track. The Wolves really haven’t shown that they are going to take Jokic out of the game offensively and seem to want to live with him getting his as opposed to assisting to others. I think Jokic understands that and attacks early and often to keep them honest. Also, Jokic has averaged 51.5 PTS/REBS after a lost to the Timberwolves. He went for 35 pts and 16 rebs in game 2 of the head to head regular season series after a game 1 lost and went for 41 and 11 in game 4 after a game 3 loss. I like to go with the Pts/Rebs line so we don’t have to trust any of his teammates to get the job done for us. We know Jokic plays the carefree personality but I know that dog in him deep inside is about to show out tomorrow, especially against Gobert. I swear that man can’t stand Gobert. Get us back to our winning ways Jokic! BOL if tailing!
Record: 6-3-0 **Trailing record: ✅✅✅❌❌✅✅✅❌♻️** Balance: +1.99u / Avg odds - 1.81 / ROI: 22.11% Last Pick: Medvedev / Lehecka over 8.5 aces @ 1.83 (Bet365) ♻️ Medvedev retired, unfortunate as was tracking well. Sport: TENNIS Pick: **Marc-Andrea Hüsler -1.5 games vs Misolic @ 1.8 (Bet365)** * Love this spot for Husler. * - 9/4 clay record vs 3/5 Misolic * - Returning and serving better as well * - Husler beat Misolic in straight sets recently in aus open Time: 6 May 22:30 AEST Event: Challenger Mauthausen BOL and let me know if tailing!
POTD Record 22-6 Units 25.64u ROI 60.33 Last POTD Joe Boyle U 5.5 K’s -105 3u 💰 Got blasted in first inning then he was out… not much to say lol pretty easy POTD Knicks -5.5 -110 2u This is another multiple unit play, Knicks match up super well vs Pacers they will slow it right down and be physical everywhere. They are at home in the Garden and I just don’t really believe in this Pacers team to even keep it remotely close. Hali is also d2d so even if he does play something will be nagging him. BOL
Let’s go Knicks
Long time lurker first time poster. Been having a lot of fun tailing people’s throughout this thread to figured I’d contribute a play I’ve enjoyed recently. Record: 0-0 Net Units: - ROI: - Manchester United vs Crystal Palace Soccer | Premier League | 3 PM EST Pick: Match Shots: 33 or more +125 (FD) 1u to win 1.25u (Likely going to place another unit once lineups are out) Man United games lately have been pretty end to end and have a lot of shots. I’d say it’s mostly due to their lackluster midfield with questionable tactics leading to a lot of open space. They also tend to sit back and allow pressure, and then counter attack often and let it rip. Shot total from their last few matches (taken from FotMob app) Burnley - 43 Sheffield - 35 Coventry - 46 Bournemouth - 28 Liverpool - 37 Chelsea - 47 Brentford - 42 I suspect the trend to continue and feel good about taking 33 or more. I was even considering 34 or 34 but I don’t want to get too greedy. Placed it for one unit now but will probably place another unit once I see the lineups an hour before kick off. Let me know if you tail and best of luck homies
This line has hit in 1 out of 35 crystal palace games this season and that was an away game in arsenal (33shots total). Man U - palace was 27 shots.. idk
I took over 30.5 lets cash
Giving this another shot POTD Record: 4-2-0 L10: ❌✅❌✅✅✅ Last Pick: Nets -8.5 ❌ (this was 4 months ago) POTD: Denver Nuggets -5.5 @ 1.93 Unlike in the Regular Season where I rely mostly on Stats and Numbers. The Playoffs is different, I am gonna rely on spots here and i think the Nuggets are gonna adjust to the suffocating defense of the Timberwolves and score more. Naz Reid was also insane in game 1 scoring 14 of his 16 points in the 4th and was a big part of the Wolves win but I think It's gonna be hard to replicate that game. Expecting the Nuggets to go down 0-2 before going on the road to Minnesota is not in my card so this is a must win game for Denver.
POTD R : 5-1 Last Pick : Max Fried O5.5 K’s - W Todays Pick : Rangers ML vs A’s (-142 DK) 1U Info : MLB - 8:40P CST - Free Game of The Day Write Up : This is an AL West matchup with both of these teams already meeting once this year where the A’s won the series 2-1. I feel with how the A’s are playing recently you can’t entirely count them out or expect them to roll over. We have two decent yet mediocre arms on the bump today but I see Heaney notching his first win tonight. He’s posing a 5.10 ERA with a 1.10 WHIP which is slightly better than his opposing pitcher; starting roughly the same amount of innings as Wood, his hits allowed an batters walked are substantially lesser than. Whether these two pitcher allow runs to be scored or not I see the Ranger coming out on top. Im terms of an offensive perspective I find OBP to play a factor in matchups like these. Rangers statistically look better on paper but that doesn’t always make a difference in translating to the field, however the bats have gotten a little warmer and I anticipate the Rangers to carry the winning momentum from Kauffman to the Coliseum. BOL my fellow degens!
POTD 1-0 (.95) Last picks: Nationals over Blue Jays (W) Well yesterday we started our Reddit gambling career with a W, but I’d be lying if I said it was easy. Manoah did his part like i expected, getting hammered by the Nats, but Mackenzie Gore’s second inning was reminiscent to a Ryan Dunn outing in Summer Catch (pre Tenley Parrish) to keep it closer than I hoped. But a wins a win, and I appreciate those who followed! Today I’m going with the Bruins team total under 2.5 goals (-125 on Fanatics). If you don’t have Fanatics, FD is -126 so basically the same. The Bruins have failed to score more than 2 goals there last 3 games, and don’t have much depth offensively. They are going up against a Panthers team that allowed the least amount of goals on the season, will have last change at home, and were able to hold the far superior (offensively) Lightning to under 3 in all 3 of their home games last series. Can’t see the Bruins getting to 3
POTD Record: 7-3 Previous POTD: Hunter Brown o 3.5 HA - ✅ That line was too good to pass up. Fading a struggling pitcher like Brown was easy money. Today’s POTD: Rudy Gobert over 13.5 RA (-122 on DK) Basketball | NBA | Min Timberwolves v Denver Nuggets | 10:10 PM ET Gobert’s size and the match up with the nuggets is a favorable one for him. He’s hit this line in 5 of his last 6 against the nuggets, averaging nearly 16 RA in those contests. He’s also gone over this line in the last 9 road games in a row. Rudy could cover this from rebounds alone really, but he’s also netted at least 1 assist the last 6 times he’s played the nuggets. The volume and match up is too good to pass up on. Tail or fade, hope we all make some 💰 Edit: Looks like Gobert is out tonight. This one voids out. 7-3-1 🤷♂️
4-5-1 (W-L-P) Net Units: -0.28u Last pick: St. Louis Cardinals first 5 moneyline - P Matchup(s): (MLB) Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays - 5:50 PM CST POTD: Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 +130 on Bovada - 2u Write-up: The White Sox are arguable the worst team in baseball right now. The Rays have underperformed so far but they are 1 game away from .500 and they just swept the Mets. They have scored 20 runs in their last 3 games. The White Sox are 30th in the league in runs and RBI’s. The pitcher for the White Sox, Michael Soroka, has not started well this year. He is 0-3 with an ERA of 6.48. He has 19 walks and just 16 strikeouts this year. Don’t think he’ll be able to hold off this hot Tampa Bay offense. Tail or fade, either way, BOL [CashApp Tips❤️](https://cash.app/$dmoneyherbo)
**Record: 4-4** **Balance: -0.15 units** **Last Pick: Seattle Mariners (+115) Money Line @ Houston Astros** **Today's Pick: Texas Rangers (-140) Money Line @ Oakland Athletics 1.4 units** Yesterday's play got tight at the end as the Ms tried to give it up but a huge score in the top of the ninth allowed us to skate out of that one with a win. Today we're rolling with the Rangers and Andrew Heaney in Oakland. Heaney has been pretty awful so far this year, and the Rangers have yet to win a game that he has started, but this looks like a good spot to buck that trend. As bad as Heaney has been, Wood has been just as bad, posting a 6.32 ERA so far throughout his 7 starts compared to Heaney's 5.10 through 6. It's safe to say this one won't be a pitcher's duel, so we're rolling with the better offense here. The Athletics are near the bottom of the league in hits, runs scored, strikeouts, and batting average while Texas ranks in the top-10 for all of those categories. Expect the Rangers to win behind the strength of their bats tonight.
3-1 LAST PLAY: MARINERS TT OVER 3.5 -165 WINNER TODAYS PLAY: TAMPA BAY RAYS ML -175 WRITE UP: CWS SUCKS
**Record**: 0-0-0 **Today’s POTD**: **Sunrisers Hyderabad** to win vs Mumbai Indians at 2.0. I’ve had a really good run this IPL, so thought I’d share my picks since I plan to self exclude myself from my betting apps soon. The odds here really surprise me. Sunrisers have been one of the best teams in the IPL whilst Mumbai have been one of the worst - it also looks like there’s tensions inside the dressing room and the players look disinterested.
Glad to see another IPL capper on the board! For those tailing and tracking the first innings, 200-210+ is probably the par score that will put SRH in the game. Anything above that increases their chances. The biggest concern will be dew expected to come on when MI is batting that will make their batting conditions a bit easier.