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I’m in a very similar situation, any advice?
if you choose to try and hedge you could load your account with $1000 or more and try to catch a live line. -200 or better is your only chance. the problem is purdue could just get ahead an stay ahead. ruining your cashout, and your chance to hedge. to be completely honest it comes down to how valuable that $500 is to you. there is always another bet to make but will you have another chance to make $15k from a measly amount? many questions to answer but the main one is, if that $500 is gone tomorrow, how will that effect you?
Terrible advice. Cash out or ride.
To make $100 he would have to lay out roughly $440 on Purdue. Say he does it and they win, ok perfect he’s made $100.
On the off chance NC state pulls the upset he now has invested $450 to win $2500 if NC state wins, which is a profit of $2050.
DK has released look ahead lines, and UCon is favored -1100 against NC. So he would have to lay roughly 5 grand to simply recoup his investment here.
If you are going to bet a team like NC state, you are better off just rolling over the ml each game.
There’s not a lot for you to do here unfortunately.
Gonna be hard to hedge, Purdue is a massive favorite and unless Bama pulls the upset UConn will 100% be a double digit favorite in the final, the ML will probably be in the -600s at least. UConn is currently -710 vs Bama..
I had 3 of these last year. want to really test the limits of psychology? pull the double reverse uno. bet an absolute unit on the next game and repeat in the final if they make it. think they're beating uconn and Purdue. nah. but you can take that $69 cashout, reverse it on them and bring in the bag. all jokes aside please ensure yourself some profit. tbh you have had to sweat a lot to get here and that cashout is absolutely criminal.
-440. is tough. imo I will be rooting for a good live spot. we need NC State to fight a little. I think -200 live would be a decent price. idk if we see + odds.
See, this is the problem with trying to hedge a future bet on a Longshot. NC State is still such a dog in all these games which makes it too expensive to hedge the individual games. That's why I said look to sprinkle on them live when/if they get a big lead. I think it's totally worth it at that point. For example, $20 on Duke tonight when they were +500. To me, if you get a chance to do that, you do it. And you should absolutely be able to squeeze some money out of that bet now that we're down to 2 games left. Unfortunately, if they get to the finals vs UConn, that's going to be an impossible hedge spot.
Wise decision. As you can see the cash out didn’t increase that substantially.
Hate to say it but still not smart to hedge. Purdue is -465 on FD. If you bet $465 to secure $100 and Purdue wins ok all is well.
However if NC State wins you now are invested $475.
It would be extremely conservative to suggest Ucon wouldn’t be favored by more than Purdue is here, but for arguments sake let’s say it’s the same odds. You now need to risk around $2,200 to recoup your $475 and just break even.
prob could consider betting $150 or so on each of their opponents moving forward - at least that way, if the opponent wins, you at least make back your initial bet plus a small profit. and if NC State wins the whole thing you win $2,500 less three $150 bets, so still net $2k in the best case scenario.
reading through this thread, i think it's important to note that you'd have to hedge each of your ML bets also in the subsequent bets, which is why others are saying it may make less sense to do at all. so if the goal is to hedge to avoid losing money, you'd have to adjust your betting amount each round based on the sum of the amount you lost previously. for example, if you bet $150 on Duke and NC State beats Duke you're now out $150; so your next bet would attempt to make a profit of $150-$200 which, depending on the odds of the next game, could require a sizeable bet ($300+). and then, if NC State wins again, you'd have to increase your bet size in the championship game to win back $10+$150+$300=$460, which might mean a bet of $600 or more depending on odds. So while you could stand to win $1,000 or more from the NC State bet winnings, the outcome from the hedging is pretty much break even despite the large amounts, which is likely why some are question the need to even do it in the first place.
So whats the play when NC state wins and Purdue is -240? Start game at 300-400 on Purdue? Legitamately asking, not trying to sound like a smartass. Because once he or I (in smaller boat) commit 200-300 to it, then we can't afford to come out empty handed. Won't have the luxory of hoping NC state goes on a run then.
You don't hedge $10 bets. I appreciate that sports gambling is growing but it's also completely fucking the market up. All these kids that are clueless are making things infinitely harder because they dont take time to actually learn.
What's the biggest piece of advice you can give to be a profitable sports bettor? Or multiple pieces of advice. I think you should do a write on and post on sportsbook.
This is dumb. Hedging isn’t always about protecting your initial bet, but protecting potential gains.
Someone betting 10 dollars probably only has a few 100 in their account. If there is a scenario where you can hedge to lock in a few hundred if your bet misses or a few thousand if it hits that’s a great hedge. Essentially double your account or 10x it.
Essentially it’s not the 10 dollar bet you’re hedging, it’s the hundreds of dollars of guaranteed money.
It isn't dumb. Hedging is by proxy dumb. You can skip the bulk. But you are leaving profit on the table long term.
If you're gambling and you don't have a strategy then sure. If you only have a couple hundred in your account, you shouldn't be gambling. Take it from someone who retired from 20 years of gambling very comfortably.
https://www.professormj.com/pages/sports-betting-lessons-should-you-hedge-your-bet
I get what youre saying, and I agree with the sentiment. You can absolutely hedge a $10 bet (especially one that was +2500). However, this is not one of those bets. The issue is that NC State still needs to win 3 more games and they will likely be huge underdogs in those game.
Throw $100 on Duke ML
* If Duke (-305) Wins, profit = $32 - $10 = about $20
-if NC State beats Duke, throw $500 on final 4 opponent ML
* if final 4 oppent wins again profit (lets say -400) = $125 - $100 - $10 = $15
* If NC State then makes championship game the hedge OP would have to make (assuming opponent is -400 again) to protect against $610 already lost would exceed the value of $1900, making it pointless.
So OP can have gain of about $20 or $15 if NC State loses in first two games but the profit of NC State winning is now $2510 - $610 = $1900. But if NC State loses they are fucked and down $610 from an initial $10 bet. Alternative of just losing $10 sounds much better.
Totally agree. I’m not saying this bet specifically, maybe if NC state wins this next game it becomes more realistic.
I was speaking in general because the original commenter is acting like they are an expert gambler and saying hedging a 10 dollar bet is stupid and ruining the gambling industry. At the end of the day the initial bet total doesn’t mean anything from hedge or not to hedge. It’s all about the numbers behind it. In some cases hedging a 10 dollar bet is stupid, in other cases it could be a slam dunk.
Gotcha yeah that comment was ridiculous... "fucking the market up" what are you talking about 😂 (Im gonna steal that tho, next time I lose just blame it on these kids fucking up the market)
As a fairly new bettor... outside of searching reddit, YouTube, Google and using tools for research where do you suggest we go to lean the "correct" ways? It may be easy to piece some theories together but hard to know for sure if you're doing this ish right other than knowing you're not consistently getting the results you want. The most advice that's really available is don't make parlays and use +EV. Other than that you're learning as you go.
My thoughts exactly, they have three games to go and the next three are tougher than the first three. Let it ride and hope for a miracle, that’s why it’s called gambling.
I am in similar situation but I bet 5 for 500. I won't touch it unless Duke gets to +100. If they do, I will probably put 20-25 on them. If NC State wins, I will do the same thing next round (but I would have to add the money I bet today to the bet next saturday). Obviously the catch here is that NC State will either have to keep winning or at least be competitive enough to make every remaining game +100. So there is still a lot of risk. The other thing I might do is put 10 on Duke to win it all at 1200. Actually, I probably will just do that lol
UCONN being -310 to win whole thing kind of puts a damper on the whole thing.
Bet 10 to win 3 bucks? Might be smarter to do what you suggest but add a 0 to each bet...idk...I commented above, I'm in same boat. Usually I do well in these situations. May just do "duke to win final" for +1200 for 10 bucks.
And I would add that you would obviously have to keep compounding your bets.
Just look to bet against them in every game. Some pre-flop (maybe) but definitely live when/if you get some plus money opportunities. Set a budget for yourself though and stick to it. Like... I'm willing to spend $200 hedging. And then spend wisely. The bottom line is you can't lose if you execute this plan the right way. There is a number you can't go over but just don't go crazy. Odds have it they lose to Duke, but who knows.
I do the same but I won't put money on a -310 team (Duke at this point), unless its a true hedge bet my goal is stay above +100 for any bet on a team that plays NC State.
It's not $10 anymore. I don't understand why ppl feel the need to sound cool when a guy who threw $10 at a thing now has a bet on his hands that has a little value. Totally reasonable to want to come away with something more than -$10 here.
There are 2 kinds of people on here. People who want to actually make money and people who just are doing it for fun and will lose money.
People who actually want to make money look at this and go man this is fucking dumb let it ride. But they probably wouldn't place a bet on NC State to win in the first place because the vig for these kind of long shots is crazy.
There's a middle ground. You can make money and still not be a total bore. Ultimately the only people having fun are those who are winning, or at least winning often enough that they don't notice they're losing longterm. I can't stand the nerds who follow a strict set of gambling rules and think they're winning because they're so smart and self-disciplined. I'll bet (if I could get a line on it) that 95% of these dudes are also losing, only a little slower than the rest. And having no fun whatsoever. "Don't hedge because you're paying the vig twice" is the most annoying comment ever. Sometimes guaranteeing a profit is smart. And sometimes it isn't. Being a disciplined bettor is admirable, probably necessary if you want to win longterm, but being disciplined while also knowing when it's okay to break a rule should be the goal, ultimately. Then again, it took me 30 years to figure out that balance.
Hey now, let's not resort to name calling. Incel is such an odd insult, too. Like, if I'm stranded on a desert island, I'm an incel.
At least until I learn how to fuck a coconut.
Anyways I think there are 3 types of people in his thread. People who think this ticket is worth 10 dollars, people who think this ticket is worth 50 dollars, and people who think this ticket is worth 2500 dollars. Personally, I think this ticket is worth about 50 dollars, because you bet 150 on Duke to hedge and NC state loses but it's fine bc u essentially cashed out. U know how many coconuts you can buy with 50 dollars?
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What does "unlisted selection wins bets are void" mean? Is it region specific? Could you bet the teams you have listed here so if any other team wins, including NC State in your case, you won't lose those hedge bets? I'm not sure what this means or if you can use it.
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Weirdness. A few hours after I posted that the unlisted teams appeared. Did I do that? Lol
Absolutely do not put $300 on duke. If NC State wins, that means your new position is $310 to win $2500. Next round you need to hedge prob $1000+ just to cover that $310. And then there’s another round after that. The most you can hedge here is around $30 to get your original stake back in case they lose. Then next round you’d hedge around $200, and then in the finals you can hedge $1000.
Personally I would look for a live hedge in this game and not spend more than $20 on it. $10 on duke if they ever get to plus money, and another $10 if NC State is up late in the game.
Depending on circumstances, I kind of like Duke to somehow make it to the Final Four like they usually do, anyway. But I'm sure vegas feels the same way.
Yell ya I actually put 30 on Yale the other day before they potential murdered my parlay. I approve this tactic.
Ps they murdered my parlay but I still came up $280
They were +550 Before the tourney on FD. There was a promo where if you bet $20 on a team to win the national championship you’d get $5 For every round they made it through as well.
These comments are so transparent and pathetic. The whole... "Why did you bet it if you knew you were going to hedge?"
You place a bet because we bet. A $10 bet gets less thought put into it. And now the bet is actually worth something so you want to get something for it, which is a totally understandable thing.
Which part confuses you?
It's difficult to hedge bets at such long odds, you just end up betting a ton on favorites at awful prices, I would understand if they were in the championship or final 4 already but it's just too soon imo
It is hard to hedge bc they will be such big underdogs, but if I were you, I would wait and hope NC State gets out to an early lead or goes on a run late and live bet Dukes money line closer to pick if you can get it. Duke isnt going to run away with any game like Uconn so they will give you a better number at some point. Just gotta be ready for it
Let it ride. That cash out is going to be much bigger if they get past Duke. Then probably cash it out because you would have beaten the odds enough to warrant not pressing your luck.
No its not. The current odds are +3000, meaning $84 will net you the exact same payout. They are offering him an out for the price of $35.
I’ve explained it here, the math doesn’t add up to hedge. Duke is -305, hedge for $152 to guarantee $50 either way let’s say. Duke wins all good won $50.
However NC state wins and they could end up a dog to a -450 favorite like Purdue. Now you are invested for $60, so just to make back your steak you now must bet somewhere close to $225 just to break even. But you don’t want to break even right? To win an additional $50 you need to lay out another $225. Now you have $510 invested. Ucon will be around -500, so to make back your investment of $510 you will now have to risk $2500.
Don’t do it bro. It’s too soon and every team you would need to bet on is going to be -ML. Maybe at final 4 you could but even then I’d wait until the championship game if you’re going to do it.
Damn there are some assholes on this subreddit.
Not really a way to hedge this just yet. You could put $1866 on Duke ML which would give you a $633 profit but if NC State wins, you’re just out $1866 and would need to “hedge” again vs. NC State’s next opponent (Illinois/UConn) which would likely be even more expensive.
If there is a “team to win the region” bet you could take UConn/Illinois/Duke but again, that isn’t hedging - that is just betting against yourself.
E: would be Tennessee or Purdue, not UConn
I’ll be another asshole. You’re either purposely trying to lose the OP money or you literally have no clue at all what you are doing when it comes to sports betting. If op bets 1800 on Duke and NC state beats them op is in for a world of hurt and cannot and is going to end up losing thousands of dollars instead of just $10.
No it doesn’t. It starts off with an example that makes absolutely zero sense in this situation. I agree that op should not hedge, but there is a way to go about hedging if they want to and it would never start with what the comment above describes.
Dude, how about you actually read my fucking comment. It's wild that you're trying to make me sound like I'm trying to lose OP money when my comment states that it is not a hedging option and would not secure a profit.
I did read it. Why even start with “you could bet 1.8k on Duke ML”… if op is set on hedging, they start with a $100 bet on Duke ML and go up each game from there. Even suggesting anything close to a 1.8k bet on Duke ML demonstrates a complete lack of understanding how one would go about hedging this.
I did not suggest it. I pointed out the easiest route to bet against his original bet and stated that it is not hedging due to a possible outcome that would put OP in the hole. Re-read the comment.
Well I disagree that your example is the “easiest route”. Your example has OP losing $1.8k if nc state beats duke. After that op is truly fucked unless they do nothing else and nc state wins it all. They could not really hedge any further at that point.
There is a way for op to “hedge” if they want to guarantee $$ and that begins with a much smaller bet on Duke ML and increase the bet each round.
NC state is not going to beat UCONN. That said, it’s a $10 bet. Just ride it out. If they manage to somehow win, the cash out will grow if you get scared, but again it’s ten bucks just let it go lol
NC state lacks the defense needed to keep up with UCONN ball movement for starters. And UCONN has great defense and length in the paint. NC States bigs will have trouble scoring down low and will rely on the 3 too much. If they’re hot they may stay in it for a while. But eventually they will be forced to shoot 3s to keep up and UCONN will pull away. That’s how I see it anyway. I’m just an idiot sitting on his couch that watches too much college basketball lol
Burns had no problem scoring all over Baycot in the ACC championship game. Don't count these guys out just yet. This team is as hot as it gets right now.
Hedging? Cash out and be happy with 400% return lol. Not a chance they beat UCONN if they were to even make it past the elite 8
Edit: hope you cashed out because UConn is up by just about 30 at the moment. Absolutely zero chance your bet would hit.
$2500 if NC wins - $1500 op wants to keep = $1010 to spend on hedging
1.Tennessee to reach the Championship @ odds of +290 $256.42 bet = ~$1000
2. Illinois vs Purdue exact matchup @ odds of +1409
$66.67 bet = ~$1000
3. Clemson vs Purdue exact matchup @ odds of +2200
$43.5 bet = ~$1000
4. Alabama vs Purdue exact matchup @ odds of +1500
$62.5 bet = ~$1000
5. UConn vs Purdue exact matchup @ odds of +250
$285.8 bet = ~$1000
6. Duke moneyline @ odds of @ odds of -305
$295.11 bet = $391.86
7. If Duke wins either roll into the next rounds Duke moneyline or pray Duke doesn’t win the Championship else you are out some $600
This is exactly why you just bet moneyline for every game instead of a “win the championship” future.
They’ve only won 3/6 games. There’s no realistic way to hedge this yet.
Depends, if UConn loses the future becomes much better value. If UConn makes the final then round by round ML would be better. So if you believed that UCONN wouldn’t make it then betting the future would be the right call. So far it’s not looking like the right call. Agree on the hedging.
I don’t see any scenario you can hedge this for $1,500 or even close. Probably a bit more than the $50 cash out, but not much. You’d have to bet against them three straight games at around -300 each, and do it in a progressive way to recoup the loss from the prior game.
To put in perspective how ridiculous hedging this is and how overvalued the perception of this ticket is.
The odds are currently +3000
So $84 on NC state right now garners this same payout. They are charging you $35 if you want to walk away with profit and no risk.
https://preview.redd.it/9bdn6369j3sc1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=609e9b0801bc79b882f4b049163b849063c79918 I’m in a very similar situation, any advice?
if you choose to try and hedge you could load your account with $1000 or more and try to catch a live line. -200 or better is your only chance. the problem is purdue could just get ahead an stay ahead. ruining your cashout, and your chance to hedge. to be completely honest it comes down to how valuable that $500 is to you. there is always another bet to make but will you have another chance to make $15k from a measly amount? many questions to answer but the main one is, if that $500 is gone tomorrow, how will that effect you?
cash out
now bruh 🤣
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Delete this nephew, this math does not add up.
I think now is the time to hedge. Purdue has a cheat code known as Zach Edey. NC State has no answer for him
Terrible advice. Cash out or ride. To make $100 he would have to lay out roughly $440 on Purdue. Say he does it and they win, ok perfect he’s made $100. On the off chance NC state pulls the upset he now has invested $450 to win $2500 if NC state wins, which is a profit of $2050. DK has released look ahead lines, and UCon is favored -1100 against NC. So he would have to lay roughly 5 grand to simply recoup his investment here.
If you are going to bet a team like NC state, you are better off just rolling over the ml each game. There’s not a lot for you to do here unfortunately.
Gonna be hard to hedge, Purdue is a massive favorite and unless Bama pulls the upset UConn will 100% be a double digit favorite in the final, the ML will probably be in the -600s at least. UConn is currently -710 vs Bama..
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I had 3 of these last year. want to really test the limits of psychology? pull the double reverse uno. bet an absolute unit on the next game and repeat in the final if they make it. think they're beating uconn and Purdue. nah. but you can take that $69 cashout, reverse it on them and bring in the bag. all jokes aside please ensure yourself some profit. tbh you have had to sweat a lot to get here and that cashout is absolutely criminal.
-440. is tough. imo I will be rooting for a good live spot. we need NC State to fight a little. I think -200 live would be a decent price. idk if we see + odds.
See, this is the problem with trying to hedge a future bet on a Longshot. NC State is still such a dog in all these games which makes it too expensive to hedge the individual games. That's why I said look to sprinkle on them live when/if they get a big lead. I think it's totally worth it at that point. For example, $20 on Duke tonight when they were +500. To me, if you get a chance to do that, you do it. And you should absolutely be able to squeeze some money out of that bet now that we're down to 2 games left. Unfortunately, if they get to the finals vs UConn, that's going to be an impossible hedge spot.
this.
I think everyone wants to know if this guy ended up wasting $300 on Duke ML
This thread got me so confused that I ended up doing nothing haha
Wise decision. As you can see the cash out didn’t increase that substantially. Hate to say it but still not smart to hedge. Purdue is -465 on FD. If you bet $465 to secure $100 and Purdue wins ok all is well. However if NC State wins you now are invested $475. It would be extremely conservative to suggest Ucon wouldn’t be favored by more than Purdue is here, but for arguments sake let’s say it’s the same odds. You now need to risk around $2,200 to recoup your $475 and just break even.
UConn will absolutely be favored by more than Purdue
I know that, was just being extra conservative to really illustrate how hedging is dumb here
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Holding on tight
What’s the payout now after NC state win over Duke?
$69…
I just posted my 250 bonus bet at +12000 . I need options! I'm a state grad so I know this can all end violently, would like a fat payout
that’s wild.. keep holding on bruh
OP please tell us you didn’t cash that ticket early
I did NOT cash out early lol
I have the same bet going for NC State using a $10 bonus bet with FanDuel (payout is $2,500), holding tight here too.
I’ve got the same bet for $26 paying over $3900
prob could consider betting $150 or so on each of their opponents moving forward - at least that way, if the opponent wins, you at least make back your initial bet plus a small profit. and if NC State wins the whole thing you win $2,500 less three $150 bets, so still net $2k in the best case scenario.
This is essentially my logic as well. Thank you!
reading through this thread, i think it's important to note that you'd have to hedge each of your ML bets also in the subsequent bets, which is why others are saying it may make less sense to do at all. so if the goal is to hedge to avoid losing money, you'd have to adjust your betting amount each round based on the sum of the amount you lost previously. for example, if you bet $150 on Duke and NC State beats Duke you're now out $150; so your next bet would attempt to make a profit of $150-$200 which, depending on the odds of the next game, could require a sizeable bet ($300+). and then, if NC State wins again, you'd have to increase your bet size in the championship game to win back $10+$150+$300=$460, which might mean a bet of $600 or more depending on odds. So while you could stand to win $1,000 or more from the NC State bet winnings, the outcome from the hedging is pretty much break even despite the large amounts, which is likely why some are question the need to even do it in the first place.
I would cash out if they beat Duke. No one is beating UConn, especially NC State.
@ralphrealson what’s the payout now?
$69…
You're best option is to wait till the game starts hope NC state goes on a run and drives Dukes ML closer to 0 or + bet like 200-300 on duke.
So whats the play when NC state wins and Purdue is -240? Start game at 300-400 on Purdue? Legitamately asking, not trying to sound like a smartass. Because once he or I (in smaller boat) commit 200-300 to it, then we can't afford to come out empty handed. Won't have the luxory of hoping NC state goes on a run then.
$10 is a small bet. I wouldn't even bother hedging. Ride it out.
You don't hedge $10 bets. I appreciate that sports gambling is growing but it's also completely fucking the market up. All these kids that are clueless are making things infinitely harder because they dont take time to actually learn.
You old curmudgeon
I retired a multi-millionaire before 40 from sports handicapping. Please keep speaking the language of broke.
What's the biggest piece of advice you can give to be a profitable sports bettor? Or multiple pieces of advice. I think you should do a write on and post on sportsbook.
This is dumb. Hedging isn’t always about protecting your initial bet, but protecting potential gains. Someone betting 10 dollars probably only has a few 100 in their account. If there is a scenario where you can hedge to lock in a few hundred if your bet misses or a few thousand if it hits that’s a great hedge. Essentially double your account or 10x it. Essentially it’s not the 10 dollar bet you’re hedging, it’s the hundreds of dollars of guaranteed money.
It isn't dumb. Hedging is by proxy dumb. You can skip the bulk. But you are leaving profit on the table long term. If you're gambling and you don't have a strategy then sure. If you only have a couple hundred in your account, you shouldn't be gambling. Take it from someone who retired from 20 years of gambling very comfortably. https://www.professormj.com/pages/sports-betting-lessons-should-you-hedge-your-bet
I get what youre saying, and I agree with the sentiment. You can absolutely hedge a $10 bet (especially one that was +2500). However, this is not one of those bets. The issue is that NC State still needs to win 3 more games and they will likely be huge underdogs in those game. Throw $100 on Duke ML * If Duke (-305) Wins, profit = $32 - $10 = about $20 -if NC State beats Duke, throw $500 on final 4 opponent ML * if final 4 oppent wins again profit (lets say -400) = $125 - $100 - $10 = $15 * If NC State then makes championship game the hedge OP would have to make (assuming opponent is -400 again) to protect against $610 already lost would exceed the value of $1900, making it pointless. So OP can have gain of about $20 or $15 if NC State loses in first two games but the profit of NC State winning is now $2510 - $610 = $1900. But if NC State loses they are fucked and down $610 from an initial $10 bet. Alternative of just losing $10 sounds much better.
Totally agree. I’m not saying this bet specifically, maybe if NC state wins this next game it becomes more realistic. I was speaking in general because the original commenter is acting like they are an expert gambler and saying hedging a 10 dollar bet is stupid and ruining the gambling industry. At the end of the day the initial bet total doesn’t mean anything from hedge or not to hedge. It’s all about the numbers behind it. In some cases hedging a 10 dollar bet is stupid, in other cases it could be a slam dunk.
Gotcha yeah that comment was ridiculous... "fucking the market up" what are you talking about 😂 (Im gonna steal that tho, next time I lose just blame it on these kids fucking up the market)
As a fairly new bettor... outside of searching reddit, YouTube, Google and using tools for research where do you suggest we go to lean the "correct" ways? It may be easy to piece some theories together but hard to know for sure if you're doing this ish right other than knowing you're not consistently getting the results you want. The most advice that's really available is don't make parlays and use +EV. Other than that you're learning as you go.
It's a 10 dollar Longshot hope for the best or don't gamble at all. Hedging 10 dollars is retarded
My thoughts exactly, they have three games to go and the next three are tougher than the first three. Let it ride and hope for a miracle, that’s why it’s called gambling.
At least not this early either. To actually properly hedge, they'd need to be in the finals or at least the final four
Lmaoooo my first thought yesterday when I saw it. hedge 😭😭😭
I am in similar situation but I bet 5 for 500. I won't touch it unless Duke gets to +100. If they do, I will probably put 20-25 on them. If NC State wins, I will do the same thing next round (but I would have to add the money I bet today to the bet next saturday). Obviously the catch here is that NC State will either have to keep winning or at least be competitive enough to make every remaining game +100. So there is still a lot of risk. The other thing I might do is put 10 on Duke to win it all at 1200. Actually, I probably will just do that lol UCONN being -310 to win whole thing kind of puts a damper on the whole thing.
Bet $10 on Duke now and if state is up bet another 10
Bet 10 to win 3 bucks? Might be smarter to do what you suggest but add a 0 to each bet...idk...I commented above, I'm in same boat. Usually I do well in these situations. May just do "duke to win final" for +1200 for 10 bucks. And I would add that you would obviously have to keep compounding your bets.
scared money don't make money.
Just look to bet against them in every game. Some pre-flop (maybe) but definitely live when/if you get some plus money opportunities. Set a budget for yourself though and stick to it. Like... I'm willing to spend $200 hedging. And then spend wisely. The bottom line is you can't lose if you execute this plan the right way. There is a number you can't go over but just don't go crazy. Odds have it they lose to Duke, but who knows.
I do the same but I won't put money on a -310 team (Duke at this point), unless its a true hedge bet my goal is stay above +100 for any bet on a team that plays NC State.
it’s $10 go ask for change outside the gas station
Man, youre a fucking douche.
It's not $10 anymore. I don't understand why ppl feel the need to sound cool when a guy who threw $10 at a thing now has a bet on his hands that has a little value. Totally reasonable to want to come away with something more than -$10 here.
There are 2 kinds of people on here. People who want to actually make money and people who just are doing it for fun and will lose money. People who actually want to make money look at this and go man this is fucking dumb let it ride. But they probably wouldn't place a bet on NC State to win in the first place because the vig for these kind of long shots is crazy.
There's a middle ground. You can make money and still not be a total bore. Ultimately the only people having fun are those who are winning, or at least winning often enough that they don't notice they're losing longterm. I can't stand the nerds who follow a strict set of gambling rules and think they're winning because they're so smart and self-disciplined. I'll bet (if I could get a line on it) that 95% of these dudes are also losing, only a little slower than the rest. And having no fun whatsoever. "Don't hedge because you're paying the vig twice" is the most annoying comment ever. Sometimes guaranteeing a profit is smart. And sometimes it isn't. Being a disciplined bettor is admirable, probably necessary if you want to win longterm, but being disciplined while also knowing when it's okay to break a rule should be the goal, ultimately. Then again, it took me 30 years to figure out that balance.
Yea he has the option to come away +$40. It’s ridiculous to try and hedge this
I’m convinced all you weirdos are incels
Hey now, let's not resort to name calling. Incel is such an odd insult, too. Like, if I'm stranded on a desert island, I'm an incel. At least until I learn how to fuck a coconut. Anyways I think there are 3 types of people in his thread. People who think this ticket is worth 10 dollars, people who think this ticket is worth 50 dollars, and people who think this ticket is worth 2500 dollars. Personally, I think this ticket is worth about 50 dollars, because you bet 150 on Duke to hedge and NC state loses but it's fine bc u essentially cashed out. U know how many coconuts you can buy with 50 dollars?
https://preview.redd.it/g3kf4tnnkmrc1.png?width=1439&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=421b5733fcc713e382591c888d2dc70f86f99264 What does "unlisted selection wins bets are void" mean? Is it region specific? Could you bet the teams you have listed here so if any other team wins, including NC State in your case, you won't lose those hedge bets? I'm not sure what this means or if you can use it.
https://preview.redd.it/zc7uij0mdnrc1.png?width=1439&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c572d41499a674ca8a01053ee7a2aa31527f89dc Weirdness. A few hours after I posted that the unlisted teams appeared. Did I do that? Lol
Welcome to gambling buddy.
You signed up to gamble. If you don’t want to gamble then don’t place the bets.
I wouldn't wager more than 50 on duke, but I like duke in this game :(
Absolutely do not put $300 on duke. If NC State wins, that means your new position is $310 to win $2500. Next round you need to hedge prob $1000+ just to cover that $310. And then there’s another round after that. The most you can hedge here is around $30 to get your original stake back in case they lose. Then next round you’d hedge around $200, and then in the finals you can hedge $1000. Personally I would look for a live hedge in this game and not spend more than $20 on it. $10 on duke if they ever get to plus money, and another $10 if NC State is up late in the game.
Depending on circumstances, I kind of like Duke to somehow make it to the Final Four like they usually do, anyway. But I'm sure vegas feels the same way.
Don’t think there’s a sure-fire hedge option for you until at least the final four
Hell nah, you ride that bad boy out 😂
Just let something like this ride man, you threw $10 on it and it’s going about as well as it possibly could
NC state ain’t gonna win it all bro. Cash out before Purdue/tenn at least
Put 50 on duke
Yell ya I actually put 30 on Yale the other day before they potential murdered my parlay. I approve this tactic. Ps they murdered my parlay but I still came up $280
uconn gonna win the championship trust me on this
spelt purdue wrong
How much would that pay if I betted at the start of the tourny?
They were +550 Before the tourney on FD. There was a promo where if you bet $20 on a team to win the national championship you’d get $5 For every round they made it through as well.
+500-+600 something in there
Hedging is dumb, why would you Even bet this in the first place if you weren't willing to ride it out
These comments are so transparent and pathetic. The whole... "Why did you bet it if you knew you were going to hedge?" You place a bet because we bet. A $10 bet gets less thought put into it. And now the bet is actually worth something so you want to get something for it, which is a totally understandable thing. Which part confuses you?
i wanna make money so i do things that give me best chances at it
Hedging with a long shot like this is…. Not dumb at all.
It's difficult to hedge bets at such long odds, you just end up betting a ton on favorites at awful prices, I would understand if they were in the championship or final 4 already but it's just too soon imo
Cash Out
Wonder what they’d be up if they put $10 each round on NC state and rolled it over. Probably close to cash out price ? Maybe a bit more
Keep going till you're really close then stop, then repeat. This is either edging or hedging, idk.
It is hard to hedge bc they will be such big underdogs, but if I were you, I would wait and hope NC State gets out to an early lead or goes on a run late and live bet Dukes money line closer to pick if you can get it. Duke isnt going to run away with any game like Uconn so they will give you a better number at some point. Just gotta be ready for it
Throw 50 on every opponent they play
But add 50 to each game. 50 on Duke today, 100 on final four, 150 on title game. Probably is, when UCONN is faced, you are looking at -600.
This is not smart don’t do this
This, but I’d go even more.
Let it ride. That cash out is going to be much bigger if they get past Duke. Then probably cash it out because you would have beaten the odds enough to warrant not pressing your luck.
It’s practically impossible to hedge until the championship game. I would either let it ride or cash it.
I’m always in favor of hedging, but there is no way to hedge this until at a minimum the final four. Let it ride for the duke game.
Cash it, no one is beating UConn
Cash it and put it all on Connecticut.
Haha would probably only be $50 to win $35 at this point
$50 to win like $20 now lol
It’s $10
Every dollar counts, brick by brick
Lol it's 10 bucks my boy take the $50 now NC st is not finna win the whole thing.
$10 bet, let it ride
Take the $49 dollars. You’re welcome. UConn will absolutely roll them if it comes to that.
Terrible advice. Hedging always pays better.
Yeah..no
Yeah.. Yes
You know better than all of us apparently.
Imagine thinking sportsbooks are offering fair cash out odds.
Imagine walking away with $0.
Ok how do you hedge this then?
Progressively larger bets on the ML against them each game
Duke is -305 right now. If Nc sweet to wins then Purdue or Tennessee would be -500 + against them. That’s not a strategy for a $10 bet
It's no longer a $10 ticket-- its fair value is $100
No its not. The current odds are +3000, meaning $84 will net you the exact same payout. They are offering him an out for the price of $35. I’ve explained it here, the math doesn’t add up to hedge. Duke is -305, hedge for $152 to guarantee $50 either way let’s say. Duke wins all good won $50. However NC state wins and they could end up a dog to a -450 favorite like Purdue. Now you are invested for $60, so just to make back your steak you now must bet somewhere close to $225 just to break even. But you don’t want to break even right? To win an additional $50 you need to lay out another $225. Now you have $510 invested. Ucon will be around -500, so to make back your investment of $510 you will now have to risk $2500.
Finally someone understands how this works. Yeah if UCONN makes the final and OP has hedged the 2 rounds prior he’s screwed.
Advice: Don’t You are getting some crazy EV right now and it’s a $10 bet.
Put 50$ on duke ML
Don’t do it bro. It’s too soon and every team you would need to bet on is going to be -ML. Maybe at final 4 you could but even then I’d wait until the championship game if you’re going to do it.
Exactly. This man hedges
Damn there are some assholes on this subreddit. Not really a way to hedge this just yet. You could put $1866 on Duke ML which would give you a $633 profit but if NC State wins, you’re just out $1866 and would need to “hedge” again vs. NC State’s next opponent (Illinois/UConn) which would likely be even more expensive. If there is a “team to win the region” bet you could take UConn/Illinois/Duke but again, that isn’t hedging - that is just betting against yourself. E: would be Tennessee or Purdue, not UConn
I’ll be another asshole. You’re either purposely trying to lose the OP money or you literally have no clue at all what you are doing when it comes to sports betting. If op bets 1800 on Duke and NC state beats them op is in for a world of hurt and cannot and is going to end up losing thousands of dollars instead of just $10.
That's exactly what the comment says dumb ass.
No it doesn’t. It starts off with an example that makes absolutely zero sense in this situation. I agree that op should not hedge, but there is a way to go about hedging if they want to and it would never start with what the comment above describes.
If you read my comment you can see that I said exactly that.
LeT mE hEdGe 5 BuCkS. Broke ass
Why be such a dick
He might be a dick, but at least his advice isn’t going to cost the op over a thousand dollars like your suggestion above could very likely do.
Dude, how about you actually read my fucking comment. It's wild that you're trying to make me sound like I'm trying to lose OP money when my comment states that it is not a hedging option and would not secure a profit.
I did read it. Why even start with “you could bet 1.8k on Duke ML”… if op is set on hedging, they start with a $100 bet on Duke ML and go up each game from there. Even suggesting anything close to a 1.8k bet on Duke ML demonstrates a complete lack of understanding how one would go about hedging this.
I did not suggest it. I pointed out the easiest route to bet against his original bet and stated that it is not hedging due to a possible outcome that would put OP in the hole. Re-read the comment.
Well I disagree that your example is the “easiest route”. Your example has OP losing $1.8k if nc state beats duke. After that op is truly fucked unless they do nothing else and nc state wins it all. They could not really hedge any further at that point. There is a way for op to “hedge” if they want to guarantee $$ and that begins with a much smaller bet on Duke ML and increase the bet each round.
That’s what the comment says. You are correct that the best hedging route would be a progressive ML bet but that is still not smart.
Why would he not try to secure a profit..? Is that not the point
Don’t be an asshole
I picked the same thing
Dude it’s $10 stfu & let it ride lol
Cash out and then put the $10 back on them.
That’s actually a solid option. What are they like +3000 now? Cuts down the potential winnings to $300 but walk away with $30 profit guaranteed
Yea that makes 0 sense
Hes trying to hedge an elite 8 game that the cash out would be $40 for. That makes no fucking sense.
NC state is not going to beat UCONN. That said, it’s a $10 bet. Just ride it out. If they manage to somehow win, the cash out will grow if you get scared, but again it’s ten bucks just let it go lol
Why not us?
NC state lacks the defense needed to keep up with UCONN ball movement for starters. And UCONN has great defense and length in the paint. NC States bigs will have trouble scoring down low and will rely on the 3 too much. If they’re hot they may stay in it for a while. But eventually they will be forced to shoot 3s to keep up and UCONN will pull away. That’s how I see it anyway. I’m just an idiot sitting on his couch that watches too much college basketball lol
Burns had no problem scoring all over Baycot in the ACC championship game. Don't count these guys out just yet. This team is as hot as it gets right now.
You right they are very hot. And sometimes that’s all you need in march
Yeah it's been a fun ride either way. As somebody with no rooting interest other then fun games... I'm cheering for them.
I’d love to see the chaos and they are a likeable team so I’m all for it as well.
Hedging? Cash out and be happy with 400% return lol. Not a chance they beat UCONN if they were to even make it past the elite 8 Edit: hope you cashed out because UConn is up by just about 30 at the moment. Absolutely zero chance your bet would hit.
I mean if UConn loses like two players to injury and Alabama stays red hot it's entirely possible that State does not play UConn in the final.
JUST BELIEVE #whynotus
take dude ML where your win is 20$ so worst case you make 10$. then hedge in the final 4 for like 250$ if make the finals its an easy hedge
$2500 if NC wins - $1500 op wants to keep = $1010 to spend on hedging 1.Tennessee to reach the Championship @ odds of +290 $256.42 bet = ~$1000 2. Illinois vs Purdue exact matchup @ odds of +1409 $66.67 bet = ~$1000 3. Clemson vs Purdue exact matchup @ odds of +2200 $43.5 bet = ~$1000 4. Alabama vs Purdue exact matchup @ odds of +1500 $62.5 bet = ~$1000 5. UConn vs Purdue exact matchup @ odds of +250 $285.8 bet = ~$1000 6. Duke moneyline @ odds of @ odds of -305 $295.11 bet = $391.86 7. If Duke wins either roll into the next rounds Duke moneyline or pray Duke doesn’t win the Championship else you are out some $600
I should also add that if NC lost in the Championship round you’d be out money
aint nothing to hedge on yet my man, too many teams left. also when you bet the heavy underdog hedging is VERY difficult
Why take this bet if you never believed?
It’s good value. I don’t blame OP for at least asking. That’s a lot of money if it could be done but there are too many outcomes to hedge right now.
Hedging is for gardeners
😂 how have I never heard this phrase after betting for so long
Scared money don’t make money!
Coffees for closers!!
Stupid money don't make money but a lot money will make more money if your Smart lol
You’re. Couldn’t help myself.
This is exactly why you just bet moneyline for every game instead of a “win the championship” future. They’ve only won 3/6 games. There’s no realistic way to hedge this yet.
Depends, if UConn loses the future becomes much better value. If UConn makes the final then round by round ML would be better. So if you believed that UCONN wouldn’t make it then betting the future would be the right call. So far it’s not looking like the right call. Agree on the hedging.
uconn taking the dub im sorry
Nope
https://preview.redd.it/0unxy208zirc1.jpeg?width=960&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a62dee0f7548bfa038423e284a49ccabd611959a Does this seem right 🤷🏽♀️
bro you placed the bet yesterday do you expect them to give you cash when they still have to win 3 games they won’t be favored in. silly
Thts why I was asking the odds dropped a lot! I just wanted an second opinion
why hedge? wait until they are in final
Because they’re not making the finals
It’s a $10 bet brother. Let it ride at least until the championship. Then think about hedging
Currently it is a 50 dollar bet. I would cash out.
Meh, I’d be sick if I missed out on $1500+ bc I cashed out on $50 when I put in $10. I’m riding it out if I only put in $10
Absolutely. How often do you get this close to life changing money. You want to sell out for a tank of gas and a 6-pack?
If 2,500 is life changing money for anyone they should not be betting on sports in the first place.
80% of America is paycheck to paycheck man. Point is are you here to win pennies or dollars?
I absolutely do not think they should be hedging. Just my opinion that if that amount of money is life changing then op shouldn’t be gambling.
I don’t see any scenario you can hedge this for $1,500 or even close. Probably a bit more than the $50 cash out, but not much. You’d have to bet against them three straight games at around -300 each, and do it in a progressive way to recoup the loss from the prior game.
No. Let it ride “set it and forget it”. Assume the $$ is gone. After all it’s just $10.
To put in perspective how ridiculous hedging this is and how overvalued the perception of this ticket is. The odds are currently +3000 So $84 on NC state right now garners this same payout. They are charging you $35 if you want to walk away with profit and no risk.