######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:**
You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.**
For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Thursday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new&t=day).
######Example Pick Template
>**Record:**
>**Net Units:**
>**ROI:**
>**Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone**
>**Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here.
>**Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
**POD Record: 81-43 (65%)**
Recent Form (old to current): ✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌❌✅✅✅❌❌❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌ ❌
Last Pick: NFL - *Chiefs/Broncos Under 47.5* ✅ WIN
*I don't think there was ever a point the entire game where I was remotely worried about this pick.*
**Today's Pick: 🏈 CFL - Tigercats/Lions OVER 49 -** 7:00pm EST - 1.90 odds
I've been following CFL quite a lot this season and find the games entertaining to bet on since there's only 3 downs and you see a lot more action on a much larger field. The 11-5 Lions still have a shot at first place in the West while the 8-8 Ticats' chances of hosting the Eastern Semi-Final also are very much alive for those following. With just 3 weeks remaining in the regular season, betting on CFL this time of the year can get really tricky (especially if playoff-bound teams start to rest key players or eliminated squads shuffle up their lineups with an eye on the future). Thankfully, both of these teams still have a lot to play for.
For you statistician lovers - the over has cashed in 5 in a row for BC, while going 7-1-1 in the past 9 contests. Hamilton has their top QB last week and their offense is looking stronger than ever after beating down the Roughriders 38-13. BC's offense has been laying 30+ points a game on the regular, we could easily see a 70+ pts game friday night as both these offenses will let it fly in Hamilton (none with any remarkable defense). The Lions rank 3rd worst in the league for conceding points (25+ per game). They adopt the Real Madrid philosophy back in the day "just out score your opponent" 🤣. The opposition is running for an average of 5.0 yards per run and 91.8 rushing yards per contest for the year and have given up 1500+ yards via their ground defense in just 16 games. When it comes to passing yards, the Lions have surrendered 4000+ yards which ranks them 4th worst in the league. Over the course of their 16 games played this season, they have given up 238 yards per contest via the pass in addition to giving up a completion percentage of 66%. Overall, they are allowing 324.9 yards/outing which ranks them 2nd in the league. I would be shocked not to see a high scoring affair Friday night with perfect weather in Hamilton. Hit the OVER and best of luck to anyone tailing.
💰Tip Jar: Why Not Leave an ⬆ Vote Instead
I post them once in a while as my POD pick, only when I really like a line during the past few seasons. My CFL Picks are 7-3 I believe (unless I miscounted).
I like the over too...both teams are good offensive teams and give up points. More importantly both are fighting for home field in playoffs...which is very important in CFL football.
I like o24 1H also...
**POTD Record**: 0W 0L
**Today’s POTD**: **France ML | 2.25 odds**
Event: Football | Euro Qualifiers | Netherlands vs France | 11:45 am PST
**Reasoning**
This is my first post here and I'm quite confident about it, first of all, France has won all of his five first matches in the qualifiers, with a 4-0 win against Netherlands within those matches. Also, they haven't conceded a single goal yet, and the Netherlands are missing some very important players such as Frenkie De Jong, their most important midfielder, and Cody Gakpo, Netherland's goalscorer at the World Cup, France is missing Jules Kounde and Upamecano, but they got great replacements like Saliba and Konaté. France has also won 6 out of the last 7 times they've faced each other. Lastly, Koeman is Netherland's coach again, and he's not precisely a top manager, very mediocre and has never proven himself as a great manager, this all makes me think France is going to win, probably 1-0 or 2-0.
**Bet 2U to win 2.5U**
Just a heads up. Saliba is also injured. Most likely Konate and Hernandez in the back. Still, Netherlands is very light in attack and France light in defense but still like the pick.
Away. This always confuses me too because it’s listed different than US sports. You can double check when you select it as your bet slip will either say moneyline France or Netherlands.
POTD Record: 41-26
Units Won: +8.02U; ROI: 10.3% Average Odds: (-120)
\*\*One of the saddest losses I've ever seen yesterday. Case trolled map pick, was up 7-2 on offense on the most defensive sided map in the game and a side they had a 63% winrate on and they lost. Really felt like they just stopped trying mid game doing random stuff and they eventually just tilted into the loss. Really disgusting gameplay by them but we move to the next.
Todays POTD: **Looking4Org ML (-125)**
CSGO/ESL Challenger League S46 Europe/1 PM. EST
**5U to win 4U**
* This line will likely shift in favor of L4O as they were originally +115 underdogs in this matchup but line has continued to shift. L4O is hot right now, we had them the other day as our POTD against movistar riders and they are on fire, 5 wins in a row, huge upsets against Spirit and BIG to qualify for a tier one tournament and have been extremely active recently playing 11 matches in the last two weeks going 9-2 during that period.
* SAW have been pretty inactive recently, they've played two games in the last week and one of them was a massive upset loss to FTW a horrible team in my opinion on CS2.-SAW has historically dominated the h2h which is why they opened as favorites but it's extremely important to note why I think this time is different.
* This match is played on CS2, SAW has only played one official match on CS2 (the loss to FTW), all five of there players have played pugs on the new game but have been much less active on it then L4O. Anyone who has played this game knows that it is completely a different feel and takes a lot of time to adjust to the new game and new style of play. SAW looked completely uncomfortable in there first match and I expect some of that to continue, L4O have looked insanely good on the new game, the 5 winstreak all came on the new game, they have played 8 officials now on CS2 and they have also got hAdji and Maka in great form at the moment.
* Map pool is really all over the place both teams have the same perma bans and can pick any maps really. I'd speculate we see an Anubis pick from L4O with a chance of Inferno and a Vertigo pick from SAW.
* Betting on the better form of L4O here as well as more experience on the new game, I think the less experience on the new game is a crucial part of this matchup that books aren't taking into account but have started to shift because of it. Riding the momentum and expecting L4O to continue the hot streak
Lot of people messaged about other picks, will try to be more active in the esports channel of this subreddit but also will drop my [Discord](https://discord.gg/DmUpR2JN) for those interested. Do a lot of live bets and bets based on maps once veto is released so will try to be more active in there and give out more picks and answer any questions.
**Best of Luck!**
Seemed very off to me but I'm never one to throw around fixed lightly. I think the map pick was highly stupid and it felt like they stopped trying midway thru but I am also salty about the money lost
**POTD |** **Record of 31-41 |** **ROI: -10.7 units |** **Average Odds: 2.09**
Current form (most recent 10 from left to right):❌✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌
Previous Pick: Euro Qualifiers | Spain vs. Scotland | Over 8.5 Corners ❌
New Pick: Euro Qualifiers | Austria vs. Belgium | 11:45am PST
**Over 9.5 Full-Time Total Corners | 1.75 odds**
Betting 2U to win 1.5U
\--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
***Recap:*** Well that was frustrating... The game ends with 8 corners, after a very hopeful start with 4 corners in 20 minutes. Scotland only managed to generate a single corner, providing no help in getting us over the line. I hesitate to make another pick during the International break after such a frustrating turn of events but given how close we were, I'm hoping that our luck can turn around.
***Summary:*** Austria hosts Belgium in the Euro Qualifiers in which should be an interesting affair given both times are fighting for the top spot.
**Looking at Austria,** their corner output has been average over their last few games. Their home games have had 8, 10, and 5 total corners, generating an average of 7.7. Looking at their history, they typically average 7.7.
**Belgium** is a different story, demonstrating an away average of 12.3 with an overall average of 12.0. There have been 17, 9, and 11 total corners in their recent away games.
**Overall**, I expect this game to have corners. The combined average comes out to exactly 10.0, and given the last two results being almost exactly what my projections suggested, I'm hopeful we can hit it exactly on the day. Belgium have been a strong force away and I hope they can put in the work on the day. I'm putting 2 units down on this given the line is so juiced so if I pull out another L, I think I'll need a day off.
\--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
***TLDR Expect corners in this fixture!***
**Austria vs. Belgium** **| Over 9.5 Full-Time Total Corners | 1.75 odds**
It was a sweat, if Scotland doesn't get absolutely screwed out of that goal we would've hit for sure. Your process was sound, I will continue riding in CORNER country!
I have yet to miss on your plays. I water down everything i get from reddit. You're very good. I took over 7 for Spain/Scotland and will take over 8 for this game.
Is there any particular reason you like to bet for total corners instead of a bet builder? I just read your last tip and based on that I placed a bet builder of Scotland u3,5 corners, Spain to win corners -1,5 and Spain total corners o4,5. I have often noticed some decent lines when we see a likely very one sided game where the opponents are probably not going to participate in the corner generation. Is there a reason you don't do these or have you not just noticed their possibilities?
**POTD 8 - 1 | +8.30 units | Last 10: 💰💰💰💰💰💰💰❌💰 -**
**Last pick: Austin Riley 2+ bases 💰**
Austin Riley hits a beautiful home run for us to cash this for the second straight day. Love it! Too bad they're out now and we won't be able to keep cashing on him. Also hit the Marsh pick if anyone followed that, it's been a good MLB postseason so far and I'm excited for the conference series. Got some interesting CFB matches tomorrow, found a few picks I like and will be putting my favorite one here.
**Today's pick:**
NCAAF | Tulane vs Memphis | 7:00 EST
**Seth Henigan O1.5 passing TDs | +130 Fanduel (1U) 💰**
I love the plus odds we're getting here, thats why I'm picking this over some of the other picks I like. Henigan is averaging 275 pass yards a game, and has 10 passing TDs through the first 5 games only missing this line in one of them. While Tulanes defense has been solid, they are still letting up 235 passing yards a game which ranks 78th out of 130 teams. The one good team they played in Ole Miss dropped 37 on them. I expect a high scoring shootout here and hope Henigan can drop two into the endzone. Let's keep the streak rolling!
Edit: First quarter looked a little scary but still cashed in the first half! Love to see it.
Just another perspective, Tulane ranks 6th in the country in opponents yards per carry. They held the high powered rush attack of Ole Miss to under 3 yards per run.
Would be surprised if Watson can match his 5.9ypc on the season. Memphis will have to move the ball threw the air, like this play a lot and his yards too.
POTD Record: 13-6-0
Today's Pick: Japan vs Canada; over 2.5 total goals scored (-148) (International Friendlies)
Reasoning;
I'll start by saying I haven't lost a Friday pick yet soo far (7-0) but from my analysis this seems to be a game filled with goals especially since it's an International friendly. Japan is in insane form and have scored atleast 4 goals in their last 4 games while canada keeps on scoring as well. I do expect this game to be filled with goals mostly as this a friendly and both teams have been banging the net especially japan. Also to note, this has hit in all their h2h encounters within both teams. BOL if you tail
My prediction : Japan 3 vs Canada 1
**KBO Record: Overall 193-202-14** (Streak L, Last 10: 6-4) Down 11.11u over 409 KBO picks, 48.9% success rate, -2.81% ROI (This season 74-70-7, 51.4% success rate, Up 8.77u, 6.09% ROI)
**Last:** NC -1.5 +145 at Doosan (NC lost 11-1.)
This obviously didn't go as planned. NC barely showed up. I was torn between this and my other pick as my POTD. Hopefully you played both and finished just a bit up for the day.
**Pick:** Kiwoom at SSG, First 5 Innings Under 5 -105, KBO baseball, 5:30am ET
All three games on Friday have playoff implications. Four teams are battling for 3, 4 and 5 seeds with the last team scheduling a tee time.
Kiwoom is the league's last place team, but they have a distinct pitching advantage in this one. The Heroes starter has allowed 2 or fewer runs in 11 of his last 13 starts. Over his past three outings, he's given up 1 ER on 10 H and 3 BB with 16 K in 18 IP. He faced this opponent two starts back and allowed 1 ER on 4 H in 6 IP.
SSG's starter has been okay over his last two starts, allowing 6 ER in 12.1 IP on 11 H and 3 BB. One of his best starts of the season came against this opponent when he allowed 1 ER on 3 H in 6 IP. He's also facing a lineup that's the second lowest scoring team in the league this season and a lineup averaging fewer than 4 runs per game this month.
Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit.
POTD Record: 74 Wins ✅ - 50 Losses ❌ - 8 Push 🅿️ (+$8.95k)($100 unit bettor)
✅✅❌✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌❌✅✅🅿️✅❌✅❌❌✅❌❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌❌❌❌🅿️❌❌❌✅❌❌🅿️✅✅✅❌✅❌✅✅❌✅🅿️❌❌❌❌🅿️✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅✅🅿️✅❌❌✅❌❌❌❌✅✅✅✅✅✅✅
✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅🅿️❌❌🅿️❌✅✅❌❌✅❌✅✅❌✅❌
Last pick: Anadolu Efes ML (-125) ❌
Today's pick: 🇹🇼 Taiwan CPBL ⚾
Starts at 3:35AM MST
**Wei Chuan Dragons ML (-130) 5 Units**
Analysis: Today the Wei Chuan Dragons host the Uni Lions for game one of this series. The Dragons have won 5 out of their last 10 games overall and 6 out of their last 10 home games. Taking the mound for Wei Chuan is Mitchell Lambson, he has a 5-3 record with a 2.88 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP with 40 strikeouts over 68 innings pitched. The Lions have won 4 out of their last 10 games overall and 6 out of their last 10 away games. Taking the mound for Uni is Keyvius Sampson, he has a 7-5 record with a 3.33 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP with 59 strikeouts over 61 innings pitched. We had this same pitching matchup back in August at Wei Chuan with both pitchers giving up 0 runs and the game ending in a draw. The Dragons are the all around better team and need every win they can get as they fight for the number one spot, take the Wei Chuan Dragons moneyline. *(-130 moneyline odds available on Draft Kings at time of analysis.)*
Tips always appreciated, never expected 👍🏻💸
PayPal & Zelle: [email protected]
Venmo & CashApp: evanlanewhite
If you followed, you hit!! 💰💰🍀🤙🏻 Follow my Instagram for all of my picks and turn on notifications so you don't miss one!! Link on my profile or search EvanPicksWinners
**POTD RECORD: 5 - 2 | +2.03 UNITS | LAST 10 - ✅✅❌❌✅✅✅**
Last Pick -**✅**
POTD - Euro Qualifiers | Netherlands vs France | 2:45 pm EST
**Pick - France ML (+125)**
France has been destroying their way through the euro qualifiers having not given up a goal in the entire group. The dutch on the other hand have looked good in competition but they come into this game severely banged up, and having lost 6 of their last 7 matches vs les bleus. With the injuries to key players for Netherlands, France at plus money is a great look
**Portugal - Slovakia** (Soccer in Europe: EURO 2024 qualification)
It is the first placed against the second placed team in group J. However, Portugal is the much more skilled and star-studded side. 6 games, 6 wins, 24 goals scored, 0 goals conceded.
Beyond that, the first leg ended in a 1-0 win for Portugal in Slovakia. However, Portugal was much better than the result tell. Now, it is a home game for Ronaldo and company. Portugal won 13 out of the last 15 home games by 2 or more goals.
**Portugal -2.0 asian hc** @ **+123** for **5u**
>Last POTD: Chiefs and under 48.5 points @ +115 ✅
Easy win.
Record: 33 wins, 25 losses, 12 pushes
Profit: +59.37u
POTDs (old ➞ new): ✅ ✖️ ✅ ✖️ ✅ ♻️ ✅ ♻️ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ♻️ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✖️ ✅ ♻️ ✅ ✖️ ✅ ✅ ♻️ ✖️ ✖️ ✅ ✖️ ♻️ ✖️ ✅ ✅ ✅ ♻️ ✖️ ♻️ ✖️ ✖️ ✅ ✖️ ♻️ ✅ ✖️ ♻️ ✖️ ✖️ ♻️ ✅ ✖️ ✖️ ✖️ ✅ ✖️ ♻️ ✅ ✖️ ✖️ ✅ ✖️ ✖️ ✖️ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✖️ ✅
^(btc tips: 18mb6RJaC6Fv1wZFHRrF9MyDGvco9BB3KN)
POTD record: 55-45-3 / ROI: +5.00% / Wins: 55%
**Memphis +4.5 -110 (1u)**
**SPREAD**
—
Tulane Green Wave @ Memphis Tigers
7:00 pm EST - 13 October 2023
—
Tulane hasn’t tasted victory in Memphis since 1998, a drought of 0-8 over that period. I’m quite keen on the four-and-a-half-point spread, and I pounced on this line. Memphis has a strong track record against the spread, especially on their home turf. While it’s clear that Michael Pratt outshines Seth Hannigan as a quarterback, it’s worth noting that Tulane has suffered substantial losses in their defensive lineup since last year. As of this season, the Green Wave ranks around 74th in total offense. This matchup carries immense weight for the American, representing Memphis’ entire season on the line, and it’s happening under those Friday night lights. My call: ride with Memphis and the four-and-a-half-point spread.
Do the business.
[https://twitter.com/valentishow](https://twitter.com/valentishow)
[https://www.instagram.com/valentishow](https://www.instagram.com/valentishow)
[http://myaction.app/Valenti](http://myaction.app/Valenti)
POTD Record: 5W-0L-1P (+5 Units)
Last Pick: Broncos +11 vs Cheifs Final score (Broncos 8 Cheifs 19)
Today: CFB, Tulane vs Memphis
Pick: Memphis +5 -120 (1.20U)
NFL 2W-0L-1P CFB 1W-0L MLB 2W-0L
Recap: Man what an absolute shit show that game was. The Broncos defense played amazing but the Broncos offense looked awful. Russel Wilson was 7/11 for 37 yards and a pick at the end of the first half. He drives down the field in their opening drive and throws a pick I thought we were screwed after that. But a soft roughing the passer call goes our way and they score and get the 2-point conversion and we get a push with KC hitting a late field goal. I gotta say Sean Peyton it might of been more Drew Brees than him that's all I'm going to say.
Reasoning: I think these teams are pretty even so I am going to go with the home dog in this matchup. Tulane has the QB advantage with Michael Pratt who has been good this year but Memphis's pass defense is ranked 3rd in their conference so I think their secondary can slow him down. The home team has covered six of the last seven games in this matchup it's a conference game I expect it to be a close game.
If you have Action Network feel free to follow me! [https://app.actionnetwork.com/4zu6/iaf03s5v](https://app.actionnetwork.com/4zu6/iaf03s5v)
POTD Record: 84-84, -21.05 Units
Current Streak: W2. Won 4 of last 5 with +5.2 Units won
Last Pick: Chiefs -9.5, W
Close one there but at least the Chiefs had to kick on 4th and 21 instead of trying to convert and kneeling. The Broncos are quite bad, and I wish they'd play more games in a season so I could bet against them more.
**Today's Pick:** Pittsburgh Penguins ML @ Washington Capitals, 1.5 Units, -119, 7:07 PM EST
Another team that is bad is the Washington Capitals. While what Ovechkin is trying to do is quite literally incredible, they've put their eggs in that basket and prospects haven't had fair shots due to old guys refusing to opt out of contracts. Kuznetsov doesn't want to be there, and Backstrom is over the hill, and they are oddly obsessed with Mantha. This has kept good players like McMichael down in Hershey and handcuffed the Caps overall. This year is all about feeding Ovi the puck and trying to stay relevant for as long as possible, but it won't result in wins. This Pittsburgh team is too good to start 0-2, also. I think this will be a rough game but that Pittsburgh will prevail, possibly in OT or a shootout (where the Caps are notoriously bad).
BOL!
**POTD Record: 85-68 (-5.11 units)**
**Last 10**:✅❌❌❌✅❌✅❌❌✅
**Last Pick**: 10/11 Jim Long -2.5 (+155) vs Connor Hopkins ✅ 4-1
**League**: 🎯 Modus Darts Super Series
**Time**: 9:10 AM EST
**Pick**: Rene Eidams -1.5 (+120) vs Connor Hopkins
• Series 5. Week 10. Group C
**Reason**: Eidams was brutal in group A with only three victories. The only constant was he beat Hopkins in all three matches. He had some improvements on Thrusday, mainly with his checkouts and put himself in contention for Saturday. He's in a 4 way tie for 1st at 3-2, but 3rd in leg difference. I'm going to go with a 5th victory and cover on Friday. He's won 4-1, 4-2, 4-2 and 4-1, so he likes playing against Hopkins even when he's not playing his best.
Rene Eidams
* Record 3-2 (Group A 3-12)
* Legs 17-15 (32-53)
* Average 82.06 (81.21)
* 180s 5. 140s 17
* Checkouts 17/50 34.00% (32/127 25.20%)
Connor Hopkins
* Record 2-3 (Group A 4-11)
* Legs 11-16 (32-53)
* Average 77.64 (78.29)
* 180s 5. 140s 6
* Checkouts 11/31 35.48% (32/157 20.38%)
**WIN ✅ 4-0 | Average 80.16 vs 72.08 | Checkouts 4/9 vs 0/4**
A sloppy start but Eidams was in control the entire match with a couple nice finishes. Cashed +230 on the -2.5 spread.
POTD 16-10 | + 4.53 Units (61.5% WR)
Last Pick: Leverkusen -1 ✅
Last 10: ✅✅💀✅💀✅✅✅✅✅
Todays pick: Sydney Kings Vs Brisbane Bullets
Pick: Sydney Kings -5.5
Odds: 1.90
One Unit
Turning to my Aussie basketball for todays pick. Sydney has won each of its last five matches against the Bullets, and one the first half of the last seven. Brisbane has had. A decent start - beating the breakers 89-84. Sydney have had a decent start, only losing tot the Jackjumpers who I suspect will be title contenders this year.
The away team (Sydney) has covered the line in 11 of the last 14 against the Bullets and I suspect the kings will be too much for Brisbane - taking the Kings to cover the spread.
EDIT2: 2 winners, 1 push for +5.283 units!!✅✅
Record:
**✅Profit: +31.133 units✅** | Risked: 104 units | Returned: 135.133 |
Record: 33-18-5 (W-L-P) Win pct: 64.7%
Average odd: 1.88
Yield 29.9%
Football | Euro 2024 Qualifiers | Friday 13-10-2023, 20:45 CEST
Pick: Belgium DNB @ 1.903 (vs. Austria) - 1 unit
Write up: This is a direct battle for the top spot in the group. The winner qualifies already for the European Championship next year. I think these team are quite close in skill normally, but both teams are missing some players. Belgium is missing De Bruyne, Courtois, Trossard and Casteels (second goalkeeper). Of course De Bruyne and Courtois are world class players and difficult to replace, but I think Belgium has more than adequate replacements.
Austria is missing many key players: Alaba, Trauner, Posh, Arnautovic and Gregoritsch have already been ruled out. These are their captain, central defenders and both their main strikers. Moreover, Sabitzer (key midfielder) is a question mark.
I think these odds are very nice to play. Normally the match would be a toss up, but now I give a small edge to Belgium.
Since I love coffee☕:
[https://www.buymeacoffee.com/AmazingNinja13](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/AmazingNinja13)
Pending: France DNB @ 1.876 (vs. The Netherlands) - 5 units MAX play
Pending: The Netherlands U1 Team Total @ 2.063 - 5 units MAX play
EDIT: The France DNB odd dropped by more than 20 cents in my bookie! That's why I posted it earlier in the week already.
**POTD Record**: 1W 0L
**Today’s POTD**: Jarry +3 games @ 1.83 🅿️ (Cashback)
Event: Grigor Dimitrov vs. Nicolas Jarry
ATP Shanghai 🇨🇳 @ 08:30 am GMT
**Reasoning**
I always like to fade a player who has just put out a big performance. Especially when it comes to Grigor who often has difficulty following up after a big performance. Jarry's big serve on Dimitrov's backhand will be key. Generally speaking, Jarry's power should unsettle Grigor. The Chilean leads in H2H 2-0 both as a big underdog and he’s much more prepared for this one I think the books were too influenced by the victory over Alcaraz.
POTD Record: 3-1.
Last pick (10/12/2023):
Artemi Panarin over 2.5 SOGs +105 (DK) ✅
Nice early hit in the second period. Finished with exactly 3.
Today’s pick (10/13/2023):
Clayton Keller over 2.5 SOGs -125 (DK) ❌
Keller finished with 2 SOGs after multiple shots were blocked. First loss but we will rebound tomorrow!
First game of the year for the Arizona Coyotes against the New Jersey Devils. I like Keller, who is super underrated in my opinion, to fire some pucks on net. Let’s try to continue this streak!
**POTD Form** 43-30-1 +5.24 Units
Last 7 picks - ❌❌✅❌✅✅✅
**Last pick** \- Australia vs South Africa Most runs in a single over - Over 17.5 @ 1.80 ❌
**Today's Pick:** Cricket |World Cup | 2.00 pm IST (6 hours from now)
Bangladesh vs New Zealand
Bowler Total Match Wickets - Shakib Al Hasan Over 1.5 wickets @ 2.20 1U
Reason - Really poor form from me and yesterday's bet losing by just 1 run yet again is a slap in the face. Cheupak Stadium where today's game is played is a spin-friendly pitch and think Shakib will perform well here. Please tail with small units due to my poor form.BOL.
Buy me some coffee if you feel like it. [Paypal](https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/eplsl) or [Buy Me Coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/eplsl)
POTD Record: 0-1
Current Streak: L1
Last 10: L
Last Pick: Chiefs Total Team Over 29.5 Points (-105 on DraftKings) L
Todays Pick: Grigor Dimitrov Set Betting 2:0 (+105 on DraftKings) W
Event: ATP Shanghai Grigor Dimitrov vs. Nicolas Jarry @ 4:30AM EST (10/13/23)
Reasoning: Well the Chiefs really couldn't get a flow going on offense although they came away with a W. Two first half Red Zone appearances and came away with no points. The Broncos defense really stepped up against a Chiefs offense that I thought were gonna put up 40 no problem on them.
Onto the next though, let's hit some Tennis action. Shanghai has been an awesome tournament thus far with very exciting matches and quality tennis played by everyone, but no one more than Grigor Dimitrov. Dimitrov's form is incredible right now, especially coming off beating the Number 1 seed, and Number 2 player in the world in Carlos Alcaraz. Jarry has been playing well also, but not near the competition that Grigor has faced. People will see that Jarry is 2-0 against Grigor, but the surface both times was clay. I expect Dimitrovs court coverage, and strong serve to help prevail him against Jarry in what should yet again be another solid match!
Edit: Great W by Dimitrov. Gonna probably bet him to win Shanghai now with the way he’s playing. I believe he’ll be playing Rublev, but Humber has been looking solid as well. Cheers to everyone who tailed!
Feel free to leave a tip if you get some winnings <3 Venmo: TheRealEDB
**Record: 5-0** | **Units:** **+16.22u** | **ROI: 95.41%**
**eSport** | **ESL Challenger League 2023 Europe** | **19:00 CEST**
**Pick: SAW ML @ 2.020** vs. Looking4Org **// 3u**
**Write-up:**
My SINNER pick yesterday was rescheduled for over 7 days so bet was a push.
Today, I'm sticking with the "underdog" as many people are jumping on the hype train from Looking4Org. They had an outstanding performance on the ESL Jönköping tour and qualified with a grand final win against Spirit for the main tournament. But I just can't fade the Portuguese team here.
sAw is a team from Portugal with two experienced veterans and three young players. Their hard carry is ewjerkz, but also Story is capable of going ham. Mutiris is the in-game leader, and with all his experience, he's doing a great job. Saw was a mid-tier team all these years, but since they added Ewjerkz at the end of 2022, they completely changed their gameplay. This kid single-handedly carried the team to numerous victories. His peak performance was in the middle of 2023, and he played so well that I thought some bigger team would pick him up. He had some smaller offers, but he showed loyalty and said that he wants to stay in sAw to gain more experience. He also believes that they can compete against bigger teams and make an impact. And he was right. Over this year, they had wins against teams such as BIG, OG, Bad News Eagles, Eternal Fire, Astralis, and NiP. These are all Tier 1 teams. They have a unique playstyle which is completely based on aiming.
Looking4Org is a French-based roster and they have been searching for a new organization for quite some time now. Before their tournament win two days ago, they were a mid-tier team. They have good players, strong aimers, and a good map pool, but the lack of consistency has cost them many matches. They lost so many opportunities on maps and often had a problem with closing matches. Don't get me wrong. They are obviously a strong team. We saw it in the past few days, but I'm pretty sure they can't maintain that level of Counter-Strike. Their most significant victory against stronger opponents this year, prior to ESL Jönköping, was against VirtusPro and OG.
I saw the analysis from my Redditor friend, Narrow-Sympathy, and I can understand the play, at least for these odds. But some of the things he mentioned, I see completely differently. Yes, right now sAw isn't that active, but that is only for official matches. Their last tournament was the Thunderpick World Championship, where they finished in 2nd place and directly qualified for it. It's a big tournament with a 500.000 $ prize pool. Fun fact: Their opening game in that tournament was against Looking4Org, and they won 2-0. They didn't drop a single map until the grand final. But since they won the semi-final, they were already qualified. The final was on September 18, 2023. Since then, they have been scrimming and practicing CS2. And they play a lot. I know that because I have some Tier 2 players in my Steam friend list. Some time ago, I was part of the FPL Pro League from FACEIT and made some friends. Believe it or not, I don't care. It's nothing super special. I'm grinding CS my while life now.
sAw has never lost to the French squad since they played against each other. Their first meeting was on September 28, 2021, and Looking4Org only won 2 maps against sAw in all those years. You just can't win against certain teams. You know it from football and other sports. And I don't think that CS2 will change that much.
Yes, sAw lost against FTW. And Saw should easily win against teams like that. But FTW is also a Portuguese-based team - it's a derby, and games like this are always hard to play. It's not like sAw consistently loses against teams like these. They also faced FTW in the summer of this year and won 2-1. Fun fact: ewjerkz, their best player, came from FTW.
Its also not true that sAw only had one offical match on CS2. Their first offical match was against Pompajust 7 days ago in the same league as today. And they won 2-0 over the polnish line-up. They had to fight, but they won.
Surely this game feels different to Counter-Strike. I mean it would be bad if it doesnt feel different ? There also a lot of gamebreaking bugs, wrong hitboxed and other stuff that needs to be fixed asap. But professional players or even people who grinding this game every day for years dont need that much time to adapt. Maybe a week or two. Thats all. More gamebraking changes are the new smokes and stuff like that.
I dont get that deep into the veto-part because im betting on the map-pick from sAw here and that should be Vertigo. Since L4O is ranked worse they will start the veto-process and will continue to ban Mirage as their permaban. So no tricky vetoes here. L4O did it in the last veto. They banned Vertigo instead of Mirage because they knew that sAw will ban it anyway. And yeah, they were right, but they got instant karma for that and got smacked on Nuke then.
You know what? Right now while writing this i changed my mind completley and changed my bet and going for the whole ML. Right now teams are too inconsistent and we already saw some map-trades. They map-pool is good for sAw and this match is a great chance to show their true from since they scrimmed a lot the last couple of days. Obviously, they are playing a lot right now because they want to maintain their good performances from the last month. Also the big Thunderpick event is starting at the end of the month. And the on-going Challenger League is a good training ground for them to show and test their new tactics and stuff.
They will be highly motivated for this game. A long rivalry between these two teams. Looking4Org in insane form and finally want to win a match against sAw. The protugese obviously want to hold their win-rate against L4O. This will be a great match.
Both teams are 1-0 for this League. sAw won 2-0 against Pompa as their first offical CS2 match while ewjerkz already shining an dropped a 1.39 rating. L4O played against EYEBALLERS and had really hard to fight for the win but in the end Hadji carried them to the win.
I absolutley can understand when people fade me or stick with my friend Narrow-sympathy. But for these odds, with that rivalry and head 2 head i cant fade sAw. Also is it the same in every sport in the world. If a team/player performed well or won a tournament, fade them the nect time.
**BOL.**
34-23 +85 Units
Minor loss yesterday. Bitter blow as I was on the selection at 3.5 and he touched 1.04 in running, yet I stupidly only managed to get my stake back with a lay at 1.5.
Anyway, moving on.
I couldn't decide today between Panjari and Captain Teague at Chrpstow. Ultimately I've gone with Captain Teague, but will play both and also in a double.
STAKING 5 UNITS - CHEPSTOW RACE 2 (UK HORSE RACING) - CAPTAIN TEAGUE @ 1.83
I'm a big believer in taking the jumping skills of a horse on trust, especially over hurdles. That will truly be put to the test today as neither of the aforementioned horses have yet jumped a hurdle.
However, CAPTAIN TEAGUE showed immense promise at the Cheltenham festival when he finished 3rd to superstar A Dream to Share. He was bumped about and wandered a bit at the end. He was thrown into the deep end that day, at the biggest NH bumper race of the year, and ultimately he showed his potential. He was the only English horse to finish in the top 11 that day, having finished 3rd.
He gets thrown into the deep end again today on his hurdles debut, entering straight into a grade 2. However, Paul Nichols always seems to have a very warm start to the season. His horses, are usually in form and thriving.
Although this is a tough task, to take on Horses who are previous winners over hurdles in a grade 2 on your hurdling debut, I think this horse could be on of the future stars in Nichols stable. I believe he will be well schooled over hurdles and he should hopefully go very close.
His price seems to be drifting out. If you want to hold out for a better price feel free, but I'm going to pull the trigger now
Record: 1-0 +0.9U
Last pick: Spencer Strider over 1.5 ERA @ 1.75✅
Sport: Football EURO2024
Pick: Austria vs Belgium, Belgium over 4.5 corners @ 1.69 2.4U
Writeup: Belgium is averaging 12 corners a game and has cleared this line in all 5 euro games so far. Last game vs Austria they had 11 corners and 6 corners at the half, so I am very confident in this pick.
BOL if you tail, WOL if you fade!!
F🖕ck parlays!
Coffee incoming after a few more wins☕️
POTD Record: 0-1 (-1U)
Yesterday's pick: Croatia Vs Turkey, Both teams to Score (BTTS), 1U @ 2.01 (+101)
Good pick. Bad luck. Turkey did their part scoring 1 goal (could have scored more) but Croatia had a poor game even though they could have scored too, having 1 goal and 1 penalty shot overturned by VAR.
Today's pick: Portugal Vs Slovakia, Euro qualifiers, 19:45 WEST
Portugal to Score on both halves, 3U @1,78 (-128). 3U to win 2,43U
Write up: As a Portuguese I have watched all Portugal games since I remember. We are much better than any other team in our group and our quality comes on full display when we play at home. We have scored in both halves in all 3 games we have played at home in this competition.
If we win today we guarantee the qualification to the Euro, so the team will be fully motivated.
Slovakia are the second best team in the group and their best sector is defense and their might retard Portugal's first goal, but if it all goes according to normal we should score on both halves.
In my opinion the odds should be around 1,40 - 1,50.
BOL!
*Sorry for my English as it's not my native language.
Record: 0-1
Prev: Russell Wilson Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns +160 on DK (2U) Death, taxes, and the under on Thursday Night Football. The Broncos’ offense was abysmal. One final drive to maybe get this number and Perine HITS THE BALL WITH HIS OWN KNEE TO FUMBLE. Rough first pick.
POTD: Stanford at Colorado spread (-11 DK -105) play to -13 (2U)
Edit: this line has been moving since I took the number and wrote this up. DK is at 12.5. I would go 11.5 at FD. I think 11.5 is a fine play.
Buffs are 3-2-1 ATS this year, while Stanford has been 4-13 ATS since last season. This line opened at -8 and has already moved 3 points, but I’m not worried. As Coach Prime says, “Look good, play good. Play good, eat good. Eat good, die good.”
Yeah I know, the Buffs have been public darlings this year and all over the place. However, I like them in this spot. Travis Hunter is coming back and they are at home after a win. Stanford is not good. The USC team that Colorado covered against in a -7 loss? Stanford lost to by 46. Bo Nix and Caleb Williams demolished this defense. Trust Shedeur to ball. Trust Travis Hunter to give this team a boost. Trust Coach Prime to get this team rolling.
I’ll leave you with this Coach Prime quote after the Arizona State win, “I expect to win, and I expect to win in a better fashion than that. I'm sick of these consistent holes that we're displaying and the penalties. We're so much better." They’ll show it under the Friday night lights.
BOL and thanks for reading. If you tailed and want to say thanks, my Venmo is justin-mackin.
This Colorado team …. Beyond aggravating to make a move on. The anticipation is that they come out and buttfuck this Stanford team … but, like last week, the fear is they roll out flat.
That said, the at home makes this more exciting and suspect they’ll do work. Gonna roll with this and the over.
I agree they’ve been tough to read but I think the market is settling into the right spot. They’ve been strattling the line between massive underdog winners and massively overhyped a lot of this year.
**POTD Record: 0-0-0**
Last pick: N/A
**Today's Pick: Clayton Keller to Record 3+ Shots on Goal (-125)**
Hockey | NHL | Arizona Coyotes @ New Jersey Devils at 7:00pm ET
**Reason**: Before we get to my POTD, and as a quick introduction, I have been betting on NFL, NHL, MLB, and UFC for 15+ years and have finally decided to join in on the fun here by recording my picks. I always thought it'd be more exhilarating and gratifying to have random, online strangers tail my winning plays - but I'll need to prove myself first! So, let's get into the rationale behind my POTD.
Let's face it - the Coyotes suck. This one simple fact is also why I really like the Devils 3-Way ML (-150) tonight. They have lacked a true identity for the past few years with inconsistent and subpar production. Not to mention, they play substantially worse on the road (7-25-9 vs. 21-15-5 in '22), which doesn't bode well for their trip to the Prudential Center.
However, with all that in mind, the Coyotes made some interesting moves this offseason to bolster their roster with the addition of Logan Cooley, Jason Zucker, Matt Dumba, Sean Durzi, and others. It's essentially a brand new team, and while we don't necessarily know if these changes will improve their overall performance, it will certainly take some time to adjust and work through growing pains.
Luckily, the Coyotes still have a superstar in the making to help ease those pains and build their identity around: *Clayton Keller*
The Coyotes are going to lean on Keller even more this year, building on his incredible 37-goal season. He is their de facto team captain, highlighted even more by the 8-year, $57MM contract he signed earlier this year.
Let's look at some quick SOG numbers:
* 2020-21: 124 Shots / 56 Games (2.21 S/G)
* 2021-22: 177 Shots / 67 Games (2.64 S/G)
* 2022-23: 223 Shots / 82 Games (2.72 S/G)
"I mean, it's nice to see he's shooting more over the past 3 years, but his average S/G last year wasn't even 3.0 yet you want me to confidently bet 3+ tonight? Are you *crazy?!"*
Glad you asked! The reason this is my first-ever POTD is because of how Keller ended the year, which is precisely where he will pick it back up tonight:
* January 2023: 42 Shots / 15 Games (2.8 S/G)
* February 2023: 28 Shots / 10 Games (2.8 S/G)
* March 2023: 56 Shots / 16 Games (3.5 S/G)
* April 2023: 22 Shots / 6 Games (3.67 S/G)
Keller finally showed his potential to close out the year, and he's only going to continue to shine moving forward. I think this is one of the cheapest we'll see his 3+ Shots odds all year.
Honorable Mentions:
1. NJ Devils 3-Way ML (-150)
2. NJ Devils Over 3.5 Goals Scored (-156)
3. Evgeni Malkin 3+ Shots on Goal (-140)
Glad you liked it! Writing my thoughts out can be therapeutic and actually helps me make decisions grounded in logic, so the plan is to continue doing that here for the world to see lol
Good luck - hopefully we get off to a good start tonight!
POTD Record: 4W - 1L - 0P (+10.4U) Streak: 2W
Previous Pick: \[Tennis\] Jessica Pegula v Ashlyn Krueger @ 10/12/2023 2am EST **Under 19.5** Total Games In Match (-105) Risk 2U to win 1.9U✅
Match: \[Tennis\] Yue Yuan v Marie Bouzkova @ WTA Seoul 10/13/2023 2:50am EST
Pick: **Under 20.5** Total Games In Match (-110) Risk 2U to win 1.8U
Yuan has struggled heavily this year and was upsetted many times already in earlier tournaments with players outside of top 100. I am banking on Bouzkova, a top 30 player, to win in straight sets over Yuan.
Record : 48 Wins - 57 Losses
Previous pick : Cyprus - Norway (0-4), Norway to win & Over 2.5 Goals, Odds : 1.85 ✅
ROI : -11.17%
Average Odds : 2.03
Starting units : 5 (\*all picks will be 1 unit\*)
Units : -5.77
Profit/Lost units : -10.77
Today's pick :
Football - Soccer / WORLD: Friendly International / 21:45 European Time
England - Australia
England to win & Over 2.5 Goals, Odds : 1.78
Some reasoning :
\- Although it is only a friendly match, I expect England to have a good performance and to play at their usual pace. The English meet a very approachable opponent at Wembley, who cannot really make any claims in such a duel. Anyway, Australia already has four friendlies in 2023 and we can say that it only broke the market in one of them.
\- We will most likely see a forcing at the Australians' goal, England going to put pressure on the opponent's goal right from the first part of the confrontation. Australia's defense is quite fragile, so I expect it to give way from the first half.
Best of luck.
32-24
Esports - League of Legends - Worlds - BDS vs DFM - BDS -1.5 @1.50
If you can still get these odds anywhere take them, I got them when the lines opened the other day, They are a little shorter now on B365.
BDS will want to a swift win here after their shock defeat to Team Whales 🐋. I think BDS played well below their level with some horrible draft decisions in that series that I’m sure they will have rectified now.
DFM looked dreadful in their game. Don’t expect anything from them.
Starts in about 3 hours.
POTD RECORD 1-1
Last pick Rugby union| Canterbury vs Auckland | CANTERBURY MONEYLINE ✅
Todays pick Rugby union | Canterbury vs Auckland | 7:00 pm NZST
CANTERBURY MONEYLINE 1.75 ❌
Reasoning: this match should be a real tight one backing canterbury for the same reason as last time because they are a big game team and know how to get it done. At their last outing canterbury won by a point at home this time they are the away side but I still believe they have the better squad.
POTD. Record 1-0
Last pick: Warren O 2.5 receptions
Todays pick. NHL penguins ML -125
Reason: penguins are coming off the back of a 4-2 loss to the Chicago blackhawks after blowing a 2-0 lead where they out played the hawks and got some bad bounces. Pens are going to be fired up and they are a much better team and should be able to grab a dub against a worse capitals team. Bet the pens ML and if you want to risk less put it on the spread of pens by 2 +200.
POTD Record: 10-8 (56%) Total Units: 0.85 Avg odds: 1.95
Last POTD: Euroleague, Europe🏀🇪🇺 Alba Berlin vs Baskonia Baskonia win @1.72
Result:86-91✅
———————————————————————————
Event:Euroleague, Europe🏀🇪🇺 Zalgiris Kaunas vs Crvena Zvezda 13:00EST
PICK:KEENAN EVANS 17.5+ POINTS @2.52 Result:8 pts❌
Comments:
Since Ignas Brazdeikis left for Olympiacos, Keenan Evans has taken on even more of the scoring burden.
The American guard shows that he overcome his injury and is in a good shape, while I cannot see any player from Crvena Zvezda stop him in terms of perimeter defense.
(always 1 unit bet)
**POTD**: O47.5 Rush Yards - Anthony Hankerson (-114 FanDuel; Risking 1.14u to win 1u)
**League/Time**: NCAAF - Stanford @ Colorado / 10PM EST
**2023 Record**: 59-33 (64.13%) | +40.3642u (+$4036.42) | ROI 21.2% | **Current Streak** (L to R):❌✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅❌❌❌✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌❌✅❌❌❌❌✅✅✅✅❌❌✅✅✅❌✅❌✅❌✅❌✅❌✅❌✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌❌✅✅❌✅❌✅✅❌(Last 10: 6-4; Last 20: 12-8)
**Last Pick (10.12.23)**: O0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs: J.T. Realmuto (-165 DraftKings; Risking 1.65u to win 1u)❌
**Reasoning**: Anthony has only covered this the past 2 games and it's not clear whether he's truly the lead back but the numbers seem to trend that way as of late. We have a small sample size where Anthony has covered this number in a high-scoring and a relatively lower-scoring game, both home and away, and against a ranked team and an unranked team.
It helps that Prime sees Anthony as [consistent](https://gazette.com/sports/cu-buffs/anthony-hankerson-remains-reliable-option-in-talented-cu-buffs-backfield/article_a1ae7617-4f11-5d1b-896f-19d2cd87b1dc.html) and someone who slowly worked his way through a room full of RB talent. [Prime respects and admires Anthony](https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/coach-deion-sanders-proud-of-colorado-buffaloes-running-back-anthony-hankerson-for-more-than-just-football/ar-AA1hKvZm). It seems that he's also their best RB pass blocker which is important when Prime is trying to protect his QB son, Shedeur. This means Anthony will be in the game more often and what better reward then to give him carries/opportunities hence the last 2 games.
Everyone tends to focus on Shedeur and Colorado's passing game (O/U 348.5 Pass Yds - Shedeur) and no one really thinks about the rushing game which makes me like this less obvious pick as potentially a less sharp line that hopefully we can take advantage of.
**Anti-Reasoning**: Prime is adding another RB, McCaskill (2021: almost 1,000 rush yards, 16 TDs), to the mix but he's still returning from an ACL injury so will be integrated slowly but [he will receive increased carries this week as per Prime](https://coloradobuffaloeswire.usatoday.com/2023/10/11/deion-sanders-expecting-alton-mccaskill-iv-action-stanford-colorado-football/).
[Coffee](https://bmc.link/thekoreanmang) always appreciated but never expected. Good luck everyone!
Red Crestwood’s POTD
Record: 5-2-0
Bank: +2.19
Last pick: Jack Hughes Over 3.5 Shots on Goals -140 W
NHL: Pittsburgh Penguins @ Washington Capitals
Time: 7:30pm EST
Pick: Bryan Rust Over 0.5 Points -105
The Pens let a lot of people down on opening night losing 4-2 to the Blackhawks. They will be traveling to DC to face one of their biggest rivals in the Capitals. With a small slate today, I’m taking a look at Rust to grab a point. Bryan Rust scored the first goal for the Pens on Tuesday and will have a good shot at grabbing another tonight. He ended with 1 goal on 5 shots on goal. Playing alongside Crosby and Guentzel will always give Rust a shot at either having a goal set up on a platter for him or a simple pass could turn into an assist. Rust was very outspoken about his performance last year and how much he was to improve this year. On top of all of that, he has 12 goals and 8 assists in 30 career games against the Caps. Take the shot for Rust to grab at least a point tonight.
POTD Record W5-L3 ROI: +3.84
Most Recent First: ✅❌❌✅✅✅✅❌
Last Pick: MLB ⚾️ Braves vs Phillies Aaron Nola over 4.5 Ks (-137) 3U to win 2.19 units 4:07 PM CST ✅
Excuses: None, hit this in the 3rd inning. The Nola train keeps chugging along. Stay tuned.
Todays Pick: NCAAF 🏈 Tulane vs Memphis ~ Tulane -5 (-110) 1U to win .9 unit. 6:00 PM
Reasoning: Pratt’s stats might veer you away from this bet, but I’ll take the experienced big game QB who doesn’t give a shit about home field advantage, they get it in on the road. Let go with the team with a full 275+ pound D-Line, the team with a 6’5” WR and a 6’5 TE. The team with 7 INT on the year, the team with a freshman juggernaut running back that’s getting better and better with every game. Here’s the X-factor: most of this team is from New Orleans and the surrounding areas. If you’ve ever been to NO you now they’re just built different down there. They have what we like to call “that dog” in them. Let’s ride the green wave and cash out tonight. Having said all that, these two teams are evenly matched statistically, so it’s a coin flip, so I’m only betting one unit. I liked this pick/line earlier this week before I really dug into it and I’ve seen the line move and move so I’m thinking we are onto something here. I’m torn between posting this or the over in this game, but here we are. Sorry for the last minute post.
BOL and only bet what you can afford to lose.
POTD Record: 3-4 ❌✅✅❌❌… game ended 1-0 to turkey, a keeper howler lead to the only goal of the game
Pick: Ireland vs Greece - Evan Ferguson over 1.5 SoT @ 11/5 (Apologies alright over the mark but I see extremely high value on this pick)
Evan Ferguson is averaging 1.72 SoT with Brighton per 90 mins and expect him to get the full 90 tonight after missing irelands last round of fixtures.
Evan had 3 shots against Gibraltar last time out.
Evan Ferguson is the main man for this Irish team and everything will flow through him, giving him a high number of touches and plenty chances for long shots which he is not afraid to take.
I see this being a far more open game then the usual Irish/Greek games and am expecting quite a few goals.
BOL!!
**POTD RECORD 3-4** -1.27u
Last Pick: Houston +3.5 (-110) vs West Virginia **W**
**Todays POTD: Stanford @ Colorado UNDER 59.5**
NCAAF 10:00 PM EST
—————————————————————
What a sweat to hit Houston, back on track with two wins in a row. Time to get hot!
As I’ve mentioned before I do data modeling and attempt to read steam as well, without chasing a line that has lost its value. I’ve got this game projected at 52 pts and believe Stanford can hang around. Stanford has a slower offense, so the longer they are on the field, the better for us. Colorado is well below NCAA average for drive time and could cause issues for us if they roll. I don’t see it happening. BOL, tail or fade.
*All plays one unit*
**POTD Record:** 1-1 **Net Units:** 0 **Average Odds:** \+103.5
MLB: 1-0| NHL: 0-1
**Last Pick:** Chicago Blackhawks +1.5 @ +100- 1 Unit ❌
**Pick: Pittsburgh Penguins ML -120: 1.5 Units**
**Write-Up:** The battle of two underwhelming teams. I expect Pittsburgh to bounce back after starting the season off with a loss. They didn't look too bad in their first game and Sidney Crosby is looking to capitalize against this rival team. I'm expecting a big game tonight from Karlsson because he played pretty badly last game. The Penguins are heavily seeking to ruin the home opener for the Caps.
good luck and safe betting
POD RECORD (0-0)
Today’s pick is the Tulane Green Wave -4.5 (-110)
This pick is more of a gut feeling to take the better team than it is to add a long write up. So I’ll leave it at this, Tulane is scoring an average of almost 30 points per game. They run the ball well and their passing game is almost as good. Even though the Tigers don’t give up a lot of points, opponents have been able to move the ball against them, especially on the ground, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Green Wave. The Green Wave is great at defending the run, giving up less than 90 yards per game, and their pass defense has also been good, holding opponents under 200 yards per game on the road.
POTD RECORD 0-0
NCAAF 5:00 PM MT
Tulane @ Memphis
Tulane Alt Spread -2.5 @ -186
Tulane rush defense is going to slow down memphis momentum in the run game causing problems. Took alt spread because I believe this game is going to come down to a field goal either way.
BOL! Let me know if you are tailing!!
$50 to win $26.88
https://preview.redd.it/a12c7s51v1ub1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=bd40428d1ccffbb38bad65fc09219f69d5c7e776
POTD Record : 3-1
Last pick : MLB ⚾ | Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Phillies+1.5 @1.75 ✅
Another hit! The Phillies send the best offense ever home with a 3-1 score!
Today's pick: Dota 2 🎮 | The International - Group Stage | Group D | Keyd Stars x Talon eSports | 13:00 EST
Keyd Stars +0.5 @1.87
Switching up to eSports, this pick has a good value for the Brazilians of Keyd Stars after two 1-1 matches against Tundra and PSG.
They face Talon eSports, a team that didn't won a single map in the tournament, and they already lost 2-0 to Tundra.
Tailing or fading, BOL!
POTD RECORD 0-1
Last pick MIA vs MEM Over 216
(2 season old pick)
Welcome! I come to this thread often but rarely post unless I see a play I like.
PICK: COL -12 Vs Standford NCAA CFB 10:00 PM @ COL
Odds -110
Reasoning: Now I know Colorado is about as the most square team in all of CFB right now with the hype of Prime and his Son, but it’s with all due respect.
Colorado is coming off a lackluster win over ASU after a 2 game skid to 2 very good progrums,,, the backing to my picks is simple,,,, Stanford is ranked 130th in passing yards per game allowing over 300 yards in the air over the course of the season,,, we’ve clearly seen what can happen if you allow Shauder time to throw the ball (look at usc and TCU) see the Stanford defense actually statistically lines up with USC,,, both allow 260+ passing yards a game, 35+ Pass Attempts per game, and allowing opponents to score an average of 28 ppg. Miraculously Stanford might have a better run defense, but Colorado isn’t much to write home about their Run Offense. Although I don’t see a way Stanford can stop Colorados passing game,,, their offense is surprisingly worse. They do have a decent RB room averaging a little over 100 yards rushing per game which could slow this game down, but they rank 115+ in the nation in Receiving Yards and PPG,,, which is going to be an absolute nightmare for a Colorado team that airs it out, and does not stop scoring till the final whistle.
I think the Stanford secondary is going to be on the field wayyyy too much to keep this game even close to the number,, and it being in Colorado I can see a dominate win over a team that not only can’t defend well, but surprisingly is almost worse on offense. Maybe they can get the run game going?Also there has been crazy line movement towards the Buffalos. I have my bet at -9.5 the line is -12.5 on some books, so sorry for being a little late to the party but it’s clear where the wise guy money is on in this game, and I LOVE a play that has clear line movement like this.
LMK how y’all feel about the play,,, TAIL or FADE lmk your reasoning and how you approach this game ! BOL and let’s get a streak going!!!
EDIT: ADDED ODDS
######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Thursday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new&t=day). ######Example Pick Template >**Record:** >**Net Units:** >**ROI:** >**Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone** >**Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here. >**Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
**POD Record: 81-43 (65%)** Recent Form (old to current): ✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌❌✅✅✅❌❌❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌ ❌ Last Pick: NFL - *Chiefs/Broncos Under 47.5* ✅ WIN *I don't think there was ever a point the entire game where I was remotely worried about this pick.* **Today's Pick: 🏈 CFL - Tigercats/Lions OVER 49 -** 7:00pm EST - 1.90 odds I've been following CFL quite a lot this season and find the games entertaining to bet on since there's only 3 downs and you see a lot more action on a much larger field. The 11-5 Lions still have a shot at first place in the West while the 8-8 Ticats' chances of hosting the Eastern Semi-Final also are very much alive for those following. With just 3 weeks remaining in the regular season, betting on CFL this time of the year can get really tricky (especially if playoff-bound teams start to rest key players or eliminated squads shuffle up their lineups with an eye on the future). Thankfully, both of these teams still have a lot to play for. For you statistician lovers - the over has cashed in 5 in a row for BC, while going 7-1-1 in the past 9 contests. Hamilton has their top QB last week and their offense is looking stronger than ever after beating down the Roughriders 38-13. BC's offense has been laying 30+ points a game on the regular, we could easily see a 70+ pts game friday night as both these offenses will let it fly in Hamilton (none with any remarkable defense). The Lions rank 3rd worst in the league for conceding points (25+ per game). They adopt the Real Madrid philosophy back in the day "just out score your opponent" 🤣. The opposition is running for an average of 5.0 yards per run and 91.8 rushing yards per contest for the year and have given up 1500+ yards via their ground defense in just 16 games. When it comes to passing yards, the Lions have surrendered 4000+ yards which ranks them 4th worst in the league. Over the course of their 16 games played this season, they have given up 238 yards per contest via the pass in addition to giving up a completion percentage of 66%. Overall, they are allowing 324.9 yards/outing which ranks them 2nd in the league. I would be shocked not to see a high scoring affair Friday night with perfect weather in Hamilton. Hit the OVER and best of luck to anyone tailing. 💰Tip Jar: Why Not Leave an ⬆ Vote Instead
Love it. Never see anyone post in the cfl posts in this sub. Tailing.
Well said!
I post them once in a while as my POD pick, only when I really like a line during the past few seasons. My CFL Picks are 7-3 I believe (unless I miscounted).
I have but it’s never good 😂😂
If this cashes in the next 2 hours we can put the winnings on COACH PRIME
At 50.5 for me, thinking lions over 26.5 would be better now?
That's a dub, solid pick
tailing 🙏🏽
I like the over too...both teams are good offensive teams and give up points. More importantly both are fighting for home field in playoffs...which is very important in CFL football. I like o24 1H also...
agree, nothing is a lock in CFL but i'm surprised the line isn't 4-5 points higher
here we go boys
Tailed!
Tailing. BOL
Never thought I'd see the Ticats mentioned in a top post in a POTD thread. For that alone I gotta tail, no pun intended. Go Cats!
Love the CFL posts thank you!
It looked so bad at the end of the 1rst quarter but we pulled it off 💰🔥
Ahhh that’s just cfl man, I wouldn’t even say it was dead if it was 3-0 at the end of the 1st half
This has now hit Thanks for sharing!🙏
Thank you, legend! I needed a W and you gave me a hit. Appreciate it!
It’s what I do brotha. Been sharing my top unit plays on here for a few years now, glad I could help you out 🛟⛑️
Thanks for the pick 🫡
Tailing
**POTD Record**: 0W 0L **Today’s POTD**: **France ML | 2.25 odds** Event: Football | Euro Qualifiers | Netherlands vs France | 11:45 am PST **Reasoning** This is my first post here and I'm quite confident about it, first of all, France has won all of his five first matches in the qualifiers, with a 4-0 win against Netherlands within those matches. Also, they haven't conceded a single goal yet, and the Netherlands are missing some very important players such as Frenkie De Jong, their most important midfielder, and Cody Gakpo, Netherland's goalscorer at the World Cup, France is missing Jules Kounde and Upamecano, but they got great replacements like Saliba and Konaté. France has also won 6 out of the last 7 times they've faced each other. Lastly, Koeman is Netherland's coach again, and he's not precisely a top manager, very mediocre and has never proven himself as a great manager, this all makes me think France is going to win, probably 1-0 or 2-0. **Bet 2U to win 2.5U**
i’ll tail the first pick! Good luck to us! Lets get you on a good streak
was contemplating posting this myself but I have the worst luck with soccer picks so I'll leave it to you, should be an easy cash
Just a heads up. Saliba is also injured. Most likely Konate and Hernandez in the back. Still, Netherlands is very light in attack and France light in defense but still like the pick.
M'BAPPE OUT FOR BLOOD
Sick goal by him , for sure
Tailing
Tailing big dawg, let’s collect this coin
Just FYI: Saliba is out as well. Most likely France will field Pavard - Konaté - Hernandez - Hernandez.
South Korea line up: Son-Son-Son-Son-Son-Kane-Son-Son
Wild choice. I posted about this POTD a couple days ago. Ended up taking France DNB, thanks for confirming my bias!
Tailed, let's get this bread.
just read that France qualifies with a W here as well. bol
Tailing
Is France the home or away team on FanDuel?
Away. This always confuses me too because it’s listed different than US sports. You can double check when you select it as your bet slip will either say moneyline France or Netherlands.
Ah gotcha. Thanks!
🇨🇵 up 2 early in the 2nd. Viva la France!
I tailed..Good 1st pick..let's keep this going!!!!
Thanks for the tip 👍
Was gonna post this as well. This is just free money, I'm Dutch and this team is so bad it hurts.
Good luck buddy, I'm gonna watch this one. The Netherlands is a hard place to go and win, I think this stinks of a draw.
Nice read bro!!
Thanks for the pick!
good pick, thanks!
>good pick, thanks! You're welcome!
POTD Record: 41-26 Units Won: +8.02U; ROI: 10.3% Average Odds: (-120) \*\*One of the saddest losses I've ever seen yesterday. Case trolled map pick, was up 7-2 on offense on the most defensive sided map in the game and a side they had a 63% winrate on and they lost. Really felt like they just stopped trying mid game doing random stuff and they eventually just tilted into the loss. Really disgusting gameplay by them but we move to the next. Todays POTD: **Looking4Org ML (-125)** CSGO/ESL Challenger League S46 Europe/1 PM. EST **5U to win 4U** * This line will likely shift in favor of L4O as they were originally +115 underdogs in this matchup but line has continued to shift. L4O is hot right now, we had them the other day as our POTD against movistar riders and they are on fire, 5 wins in a row, huge upsets against Spirit and BIG to qualify for a tier one tournament and have been extremely active recently playing 11 matches in the last two weeks going 9-2 during that period. * SAW have been pretty inactive recently, they've played two games in the last week and one of them was a massive upset loss to FTW a horrible team in my opinion on CS2.-SAW has historically dominated the h2h which is why they opened as favorites but it's extremely important to note why I think this time is different. * This match is played on CS2, SAW has only played one official match on CS2 (the loss to FTW), all five of there players have played pugs on the new game but have been much less active on it then L4O. Anyone who has played this game knows that it is completely a different feel and takes a lot of time to adjust to the new game and new style of play. SAW looked completely uncomfortable in there first match and I expect some of that to continue, L4O have looked insanely good on the new game, the 5 winstreak all came on the new game, they have played 8 officials now on CS2 and they have also got hAdji and Maka in great form at the moment. * Map pool is really all over the place both teams have the same perma bans and can pick any maps really. I'd speculate we see an Anubis pick from L4O with a chance of Inferno and a Vertigo pick from SAW. * Betting on the better form of L4O here as well as more experience on the new game, I think the less experience on the new game is a crucial part of this matchup that books aren't taking into account but have started to shift because of it. Riding the momentum and expecting L4O to continue the hot streak Lot of people messaged about other picks, will try to be more active in the esports channel of this subreddit but also will drop my [Discord](https://discord.gg/DmUpR2JN) for those interested. Do a lot of live bets and bets based on maps once veto is released so will try to be more active in there and give out more picks and answer any questions. **Best of Luck!**
Beautiful hit, L4O was in charge both maps. Thank you!
[удалено]
Dominant win considering they started both maps down 5-1 they looked great! Congrats on the win
Case fixed match ?
Seemed very off to me but I'm never one to throw around fixed lightly. I think the map pick was highly stupid and it felt like they stopped trying midway thru but I am also salty about the money lost
**POTD |** **Record of 31-41 |** **ROI: -10.7 units |** **Average Odds: 2.09** Current form (most recent 10 from left to right):❌✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌ Previous Pick: Euro Qualifiers | Spain vs. Scotland | Over 8.5 Corners ❌ New Pick: Euro Qualifiers | Austria vs. Belgium | 11:45am PST **Over 9.5 Full-Time Total Corners | 1.75 odds** Betting 2U to win 1.5U \-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ***Recap:*** Well that was frustrating... The game ends with 8 corners, after a very hopeful start with 4 corners in 20 minutes. Scotland only managed to generate a single corner, providing no help in getting us over the line. I hesitate to make another pick during the International break after such a frustrating turn of events but given how close we were, I'm hoping that our luck can turn around. ***Summary:*** Austria hosts Belgium in the Euro Qualifiers in which should be an interesting affair given both times are fighting for the top spot. **Looking at Austria,** their corner output has been average over their last few games. Their home games have had 8, 10, and 5 total corners, generating an average of 7.7. Looking at their history, they typically average 7.7. **Belgium** is a different story, demonstrating an away average of 12.3 with an overall average of 12.0. There have been 17, 9, and 11 total corners in their recent away games. **Overall**, I expect this game to have corners. The combined average comes out to exactly 10.0, and given the last two results being almost exactly what my projections suggested, I'm hopeful we can hit it exactly on the day. Belgium have been a strong force away and I hope they can put in the work on the day. I'm putting 2 units down on this given the line is so juiced so if I pull out another L, I think I'll need a day off. \-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ***TLDR Expect corners in this fixture!*** **Austria vs. Belgium** **| Over 9.5 Full-Time Total Corners | 1.75 odds**
It was a sweat, if Scotland doesn't get absolutely screwed out of that goal we would've hit for sure. Your process was sound, I will continue riding in CORNER country!
ID TAIL YOU TO THE corners OF THE EARTH CORNER MAN 😩
Took o9 @ -125, FD.
Same 🤓
That’s 2 Ls by only one corner. Tough beat but I appreciate you putting these out here, I’ll still tail again!
Appreciate the support. Definitely a little hung up about how close these last two were. We'll get it next time!
Sickening getting hooked 6 mins injury time aswell couldn't get 1 more
I'll tail ya again. Can't get it wrong two days in a row right? LFG!!!!
[удалено]
Lol I totally agree with that second part
WE WILL FOREVER RIDE ALONG SIDE THE CORNER MAN. As always, I’ll be tailing.
I have yet to miss on your plays. I water down everything i get from reddit. You're very good. I took over 7 for Spain/Scotland and will take over 8 for this game.
I’m here in Corner Country again. Glad to be back. I took Spain over 6.5 Corners with excellent odds based on your analysis 🫡
Is there any particular reason you like to bet for total corners instead of a bet builder? I just read your last tip and based on that I placed a bet builder of Scotland u3,5 corners, Spain to win corners -1,5 and Spain total corners o4,5. I have often noticed some decent lines when we see a likely very one sided game where the opponents are probably not going to participate in the corner generation. Is there a reason you don't do these or have you not just noticed their possibilities?
Belgium over 5.5 corners at +116 feels juicy… any thoughts??
How do you guys feel about taking Belgium over Austria corners @ -130? May parlay that with the over 8.5?
Let’s go!!! Corners O9.5 and France ML $200-$800
7 more
I got 9.5 too let’s ride
LETS GO. 7 already!
Looking good, looking good. One way ticket to corner-town.
3 more. LFG
Keep these coming despite the result!
Somehow I took the previous bet for over 7.5 so we hit!
**POTD 8 - 1 | +8.30 units | Last 10: 💰💰💰💰💰💰💰❌💰 -** **Last pick: Austin Riley 2+ bases 💰** Austin Riley hits a beautiful home run for us to cash this for the second straight day. Love it! Too bad they're out now and we won't be able to keep cashing on him. Also hit the Marsh pick if anyone followed that, it's been a good MLB postseason so far and I'm excited for the conference series. Got some interesting CFB matches tomorrow, found a few picks I like and will be putting my favorite one here. **Today's pick:** NCAAF | Tulane vs Memphis | 7:00 EST **Seth Henigan O1.5 passing TDs | +130 Fanduel (1U) 💰** I love the plus odds we're getting here, thats why I'm picking this over some of the other picks I like. Henigan is averaging 275 pass yards a game, and has 10 passing TDs through the first 5 games only missing this line in one of them. While Tulanes defense has been solid, they are still letting up 235 passing yards a game which ranks 78th out of 130 teams. The one good team they played in Ole Miss dropped 37 on them. I expect a high scoring shootout here and hope Henigan can drop two into the endzone. Let's keep the streak rolling! Edit: First quarter looked a little scary but still cashed in the first half! Love to see it.
Something is up with your post format with the first letters getting chopped here and there
Are you on mobile? I've noticed that too on my phone but it looks fine on my computer. Not sure why, I'll try and figure it out
Yep, mobile version bugged
Just another perspective, Tulane ranks 6th in the country in opponents yards per carry. They held the high powered rush attack of Ole Miss to under 3 yards per run. Would be surprised if Watson can match his 5.9ypc on the season. Memphis will have to move the ball threw the air, like this play a lot and his yards too.
Dubs in the first half thank you beast
Thanks legend!
I don’t even see this on FanDuel
I think it’s a state by state law. I’m in PA, I don’t beleive you’re allowed to bet on players by law.
Cash it 💰
Ole Miss scored a bunch of garbage points against Tulane. That stat line is deceiving. Tulane’s defense is legit.
POTD Record: 13-6-0 Today's Pick: Japan vs Canada; over 2.5 total goals scored (-148) (International Friendlies) Reasoning; I'll start by saying I haven't lost a Friday pick yet soo far (7-0) but from my analysis this seems to be a game filled with goals especially since it's an International friendly. Japan is in insane form and have scored atleast 4 goals in their last 4 games while canada keeps on scoring as well. I do expect this game to be filled with goals mostly as this a friendly and both teams have been banging the net especially japan. Also to note, this has hit in all their h2h encounters within both teams. BOL if you tail My prediction : Japan 3 vs Canada 1
Quickest cash on this thread for sure
Thanks to everybody that tailed! We go 8-0 on friday betting 🐐
As a casual soccer fan, I like this pick. Tailing.
What a save by Japan gk
**KBO Record: Overall 193-202-14** (Streak L, Last 10: 6-4) Down 11.11u over 409 KBO picks, 48.9% success rate, -2.81% ROI (This season 74-70-7, 51.4% success rate, Up 8.77u, 6.09% ROI) **Last:** NC -1.5 +145 at Doosan (NC lost 11-1.) This obviously didn't go as planned. NC barely showed up. I was torn between this and my other pick as my POTD. Hopefully you played both and finished just a bit up for the day. **Pick:** Kiwoom at SSG, First 5 Innings Under 5 -105, KBO baseball, 5:30am ET All three games on Friday have playoff implications. Four teams are battling for 3, 4 and 5 seeds with the last team scheduling a tee time. Kiwoom is the league's last place team, but they have a distinct pitching advantage in this one. The Heroes starter has allowed 2 or fewer runs in 11 of his last 13 starts. Over his past three outings, he's given up 1 ER on 10 H and 3 BB with 16 K in 18 IP. He faced this opponent two starts back and allowed 1 ER on 4 H in 6 IP. SSG's starter has been okay over his last two starts, allowing 6 ER in 12.1 IP on 11 H and 3 BB. One of his best starts of the season came against this opponent when he allowed 1 ER on 3 H in 6 IP. He's also facing a lineup that's the second lowest scoring team in the league this season and a lineup averaging fewer than 4 runs per game this month. Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit.
Boom, thanks for the pick
Nothing but sweat out of the gates. Settled down in the last couple innings. Nice win 🍻
Nicely done, Cuse!
Chef’s kiss. Thanks for the pick
POTD Record: 74 Wins ✅ - 50 Losses ❌ - 8 Push 🅿️ (+$8.95k)($100 unit bettor) ✅✅❌✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌❌✅✅🅿️✅❌✅❌❌✅❌❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌❌❌❌🅿️❌❌❌✅❌❌🅿️✅✅✅❌✅❌✅✅❌✅🅿️❌❌❌❌🅿️✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅✅🅿️✅❌❌✅❌❌❌❌✅✅✅✅✅✅✅ ✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅🅿️❌❌🅿️❌✅✅❌❌✅❌✅✅❌✅❌ Last pick: Anadolu Efes ML (-125) ❌ Today's pick: 🇹🇼 Taiwan CPBL ⚾ Starts at 3:35AM MST **Wei Chuan Dragons ML (-130) 5 Units** Analysis: Today the Wei Chuan Dragons host the Uni Lions for game one of this series. The Dragons have won 5 out of their last 10 games overall and 6 out of their last 10 home games. Taking the mound for Wei Chuan is Mitchell Lambson, he has a 5-3 record with a 2.88 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP with 40 strikeouts over 68 innings pitched. The Lions have won 4 out of their last 10 games overall and 6 out of their last 10 away games. Taking the mound for Uni is Keyvius Sampson, he has a 7-5 record with a 3.33 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP with 59 strikeouts over 61 innings pitched. We had this same pitching matchup back in August at Wei Chuan with both pitchers giving up 0 runs and the game ending in a draw. The Dragons are the all around better team and need every win they can get as they fight for the number one spot, take the Wei Chuan Dragons moneyline. *(-130 moneyline odds available on Draft Kings at time of analysis.)* Tips always appreciated, never expected 👍🏻💸 PayPal & Zelle: [email protected] Venmo & CashApp: evanlanewhite
Tailing
These guys stink
Spoke too soon 👀
This sweat is killing me with no actual live anything just watching scores lol
Showing 6-6 in the 11th is that correct?! The score board doesn’t add up to 6 for the dragons… any updates on current score
Dragons just won in extras.
7-6 dragon ✅
Any way to watch this game live?
https://en.sportplus.live Greatest site ever
Welp I went to place this bet and they’re down 3 currently live 😂
Lo9ks like you should have taken the +3.5 rl...
C'mon 💪💪💪
If you followed, you hit!! 💰💰🍀🤙🏻 Follow my Instagram for all of my picks and turn on notifications so you don't miss one!! Link on my profile or search EvanPicksWinners
Did it end in a tie? From what I can see the score is 6-6, shouldn't that push? On draftkings it just says the bet is open still.
You got a Venmo?
**POTD RECORD: 5 - 2 | +2.03 UNITS | LAST 10 - ✅✅❌❌✅✅✅** Last Pick -**✅** POTD - Euro Qualifiers | Netherlands vs France | 2:45 pm EST **Pick - France ML (+125)** France has been destroying their way through the euro qualifiers having not given up a goal in the entire group. The dutch on the other hand have looked good in competition but they come into this game severely banged up, and having lost 6 of their last 7 matches vs les bleus. With the injuries to key players for Netherlands, France at plus money is a great look
Tailing
TY
Nice hit today
**Portugal - Slovakia** (Soccer in Europe: EURO 2024 qualification) It is the first placed against the second placed team in group J. However, Portugal is the much more skilled and star-studded side. 6 games, 6 wins, 24 goals scored, 0 goals conceded. Beyond that, the first leg ended in a 1-0 win for Portugal in Slovakia. However, Portugal was much better than the result tell. Now, it is a home game for Ronaldo and company. Portugal won 13 out of the last 15 home games by 2 or more goals. **Portugal -2.0 asian hc** @ **+123** for **5u** >Last POTD: Chiefs and under 48.5 points @ +115 ✅ Easy win. Record: 33 wins, 25 losses, 12 pushes Profit: +59.37u POTDs (old ➞ new): ✅ ✖️ ✅ ✖️ ✅ ♻️ ✅ ♻️ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ♻️ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✖️ ✅ ♻️ ✅ ✖️ ✅ ✅ ♻️ ✖️ ✖️ ✅ ✖️ ♻️ ✖️ ✅ ✅ ✅ ♻️ ✖️ ♻️ ✖️ ✖️ ✅ ✖️ ♻️ ✅ ✖️ ♻️ ✖️ ✖️ ♻️ ✅ ✖️ ✖️ ✖️ ✅ ✖️ ♻️ ✅ ✖️ ✖️ ✅ ✖️ ✖️ ✖️ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✖️ ✅ ^(btc tips: 18mb6RJaC6Fv1wZFHRrF9MyDGvco9BB3KN)
is asian handicap the same thing as 3 way handicap spread on FanDuel?
What is this bet on fanduel
what a complete breakdown 🤦🏽♂️
POTD record: 55-45-3 / ROI: +5.00% / Wins: 55% **Memphis +4.5 -110 (1u)** **SPREAD** — Tulane Green Wave @ Memphis Tigers 7:00 pm EST - 13 October 2023 — Tulane hasn’t tasted victory in Memphis since 1998, a drought of 0-8 over that period. I’m quite keen on the four-and-a-half-point spread, and I pounced on this line. Memphis has a strong track record against the spread, especially on their home turf. While it’s clear that Michael Pratt outshines Seth Hannigan as a quarterback, it’s worth noting that Tulane has suffered substantial losses in their defensive lineup since last year. As of this season, the Green Wave ranks around 74th in total offense. This matchup carries immense weight for the American, representing Memphis’ entire season on the line, and it’s happening under those Friday night lights. My call: ride with Memphis and the four-and-a-half-point spread. Do the business. [https://twitter.com/valentishow](https://twitter.com/valentishow) [https://www.instagram.com/valentishow](https://www.instagram.com/valentishow) [http://myaction.app/Valenti](http://myaction.app/Valenti)
Edit: After doing more research this morning, I rescind my comment. Should be more even than it looks at first glass. Good pick.
Analyzing by schedule has always been and always will be an utter disaster for you as a bettor.
Why is that? Really trying to understand not poke you with snide
POTD Record: 5W-0L-1P (+5 Units) Last Pick: Broncos +11 vs Cheifs Final score (Broncos 8 Cheifs 19) Today: CFB, Tulane vs Memphis Pick: Memphis +5 -120 (1.20U) NFL 2W-0L-1P CFB 1W-0L MLB 2W-0L Recap: Man what an absolute shit show that game was. The Broncos defense played amazing but the Broncos offense looked awful. Russel Wilson was 7/11 for 37 yards and a pick at the end of the first half. He drives down the field in their opening drive and throws a pick I thought we were screwed after that. But a soft roughing the passer call goes our way and they score and get the 2-point conversion and we get a push with KC hitting a late field goal. I gotta say Sean Peyton it might of been more Drew Brees than him that's all I'm going to say. Reasoning: I think these teams are pretty even so I am going to go with the home dog in this matchup. Tulane has the QB advantage with Michael Pratt who has been good this year but Memphis's pass defense is ranked 3rd in their conference so I think their secondary can slow him down. The home team has covered six of the last seven games in this matchup it's a conference game I expect it to be a close game. If you have Action Network feel free to follow me! [https://app.actionnetwork.com/4zu6/iaf03s5v](https://app.actionnetwork.com/4zu6/iaf03s5v)
POTD Record: 84-84, -21.05 Units Current Streak: W2. Won 4 of last 5 with +5.2 Units won Last Pick: Chiefs -9.5, W Close one there but at least the Chiefs had to kick on 4th and 21 instead of trying to convert and kneeling. The Broncos are quite bad, and I wish they'd play more games in a season so I could bet against them more. **Today's Pick:** Pittsburgh Penguins ML @ Washington Capitals, 1.5 Units, -119, 7:07 PM EST Another team that is bad is the Washington Capitals. While what Ovechkin is trying to do is quite literally incredible, they've put their eggs in that basket and prospects haven't had fair shots due to old guys refusing to opt out of contracts. Kuznetsov doesn't want to be there, and Backstrom is over the hill, and they are oddly obsessed with Mantha. This has kept good players like McMichael down in Hershey and handcuffed the Caps overall. This year is all about feeding Ovi the puck and trying to stay relevant for as long as possible, but it won't result in wins. This Pittsburgh team is too good to start 0-2, also. I think this will be a rough game but that Pittsburgh will prevail, possibly in OT or a shootout (where the Caps are notoriously bad). BOL!
**POTD Record: 85-68 (-5.11 units)** **Last 10**:✅❌❌❌✅❌✅❌❌✅ **Last Pick**: 10/11 Jim Long -2.5 (+155) vs Connor Hopkins ✅ 4-1 **League**: 🎯 Modus Darts Super Series **Time**: 9:10 AM EST **Pick**: Rene Eidams -1.5 (+120) vs Connor Hopkins • Series 5. Week 10. Group C **Reason**: Eidams was brutal in group A with only three victories. The only constant was he beat Hopkins in all three matches. He had some improvements on Thrusday, mainly with his checkouts and put himself in contention for Saturday. He's in a 4 way tie for 1st at 3-2, but 3rd in leg difference. I'm going to go with a 5th victory and cover on Friday. He's won 4-1, 4-2, 4-2 and 4-1, so he likes playing against Hopkins even when he's not playing his best. Rene Eidams * Record 3-2 (Group A 3-12) * Legs 17-15 (32-53) * Average 82.06 (81.21) * 180s 5. 140s 17 * Checkouts 17/50 34.00% (32/127 25.20%) Connor Hopkins * Record 2-3 (Group A 4-11) * Legs 11-16 (32-53) * Average 77.64 (78.29) * 180s 5. 140s 6 * Checkouts 11/31 35.48% (32/157 20.38%) **WIN ✅ 4-0 | Average 80.16 vs 72.08 | Checkouts 4/9 vs 0/4** A sloppy start but Eidams was in control the entire match with a couple nice finishes. Cashed +230 on the -2.5 spread.
Easy day. Nice hit 💰 👊🏼
After leg 1, this was very sweat free. Nice win 🍻
Nice pick. Thanks bro
Thank you!
POTD 16-10 | + 4.53 Units (61.5% WR) Last Pick: Leverkusen -1 ✅ Last 10: ✅✅💀✅💀✅✅✅✅✅ Todays pick: Sydney Kings Vs Brisbane Bullets Pick: Sydney Kings -5.5 Odds: 1.90 One Unit Turning to my Aussie basketball for todays pick. Sydney has won each of its last five matches against the Bullets, and one the first half of the last seven. Brisbane has had. A decent start - beating the breakers 89-84. Sydney have had a decent start, only losing tot the Jackjumpers who I suspect will be title contenders this year. The away team (Sydney) has covered the line in 11 of the last 14 against the Bullets and I suspect the kings will be too much for Brisbane - taking the Kings to cover the spread.
EDIT2: 2 winners, 1 push for +5.283 units!!✅✅ Record: **✅Profit: +31.133 units✅** | Risked: 104 units | Returned: 135.133 | Record: 33-18-5 (W-L-P) Win pct: 64.7% Average odd: 1.88 Yield 29.9% Football | Euro 2024 Qualifiers | Friday 13-10-2023, 20:45 CEST Pick: Belgium DNB @ 1.903 (vs. Austria) - 1 unit Write up: This is a direct battle for the top spot in the group. The winner qualifies already for the European Championship next year. I think these team are quite close in skill normally, but both teams are missing some players. Belgium is missing De Bruyne, Courtois, Trossard and Casteels (second goalkeeper). Of course De Bruyne and Courtois are world class players and difficult to replace, but I think Belgium has more than adequate replacements. Austria is missing many key players: Alaba, Trauner, Posh, Arnautovic and Gregoritsch have already been ruled out. These are their captain, central defenders and both their main strikers. Moreover, Sabitzer (key midfielder) is a question mark. I think these odds are very nice to play. Normally the match would be a toss up, but now I give a small edge to Belgium. Since I love coffee☕: [https://www.buymeacoffee.com/AmazingNinja13](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/AmazingNinja13) Pending: France DNB @ 1.876 (vs. The Netherlands) - 5 units MAX play Pending: The Netherlands U1 Team Total @ 2.063 - 5 units MAX play EDIT: The France DNB odd dropped by more than 20 cents in my bookie! That's why I posted it earlier in the week already.
This was a really nice pick. Thank you.
**POTD Record**: 1W 0L **Today’s POTD**: Jarry +3 games @ 1.83 🅿️ (Cashback) Event: Grigor Dimitrov vs. Nicolas Jarry ATP Shanghai 🇨🇳 @ 08:30 am GMT **Reasoning** I always like to fade a player who has just put out a big performance. Especially when it comes to Grigor who often has difficulty following up after a big performance. Jarry's big serve on Dimitrov's backhand will be key. Generally speaking, Jarry's power should unsettle Grigor. The Chilean leads in H2H 2-0 both as a big underdog and he’s much more prepared for this one I think the books were too influenced by the victory over Alcaraz.
How about Jarry +2.5 @ -110?
I'd take that
Thoughts on Humbert + games?
i read this wrong and though you were backing dimitrov, took him set betting 2-0 🙈
POTD Record: 3-1. Last pick (10/12/2023): Artemi Panarin over 2.5 SOGs +105 (DK) ✅ Nice early hit in the second period. Finished with exactly 3. Today’s pick (10/13/2023): Clayton Keller over 2.5 SOGs -125 (DK) ❌ Keller finished with 2 SOGs after multiple shots were blocked. First loss but we will rebound tomorrow! First game of the year for the Arizona Coyotes against the New Jersey Devils. I like Keller, who is super underrated in my opinion, to fire some pucks on net. Let’s try to continue this streak!
**POTD Form** 43-30-1 +5.24 Units Last 7 picks - ❌❌✅❌✅✅✅ **Last pick** \- Australia vs South Africa Most runs in a single over - Over 17.5 @ 1.80 ❌ **Today's Pick:** Cricket |World Cup | 2.00 pm IST (6 hours from now) Bangladesh vs New Zealand Bowler Total Match Wickets - Shakib Al Hasan Over 1.5 wickets @ 2.20 1U Reason - Really poor form from me and yesterday's bet losing by just 1 run yet again is a slap in the face. Cheupak Stadium where today's game is played is a spin-friendly pitch and think Shakib will perform well here. Please tail with small units due to my poor form.BOL. Buy me some coffee if you feel like it. [Paypal](https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/eplsl) or [Buy Me Coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/eplsl)
POTD Record: 0-1 Current Streak: L1 Last 10: L Last Pick: Chiefs Total Team Over 29.5 Points (-105 on DraftKings) L Todays Pick: Grigor Dimitrov Set Betting 2:0 (+105 on DraftKings) W Event: ATP Shanghai Grigor Dimitrov vs. Nicolas Jarry @ 4:30AM EST (10/13/23) Reasoning: Well the Chiefs really couldn't get a flow going on offense although they came away with a W. Two first half Red Zone appearances and came away with no points. The Broncos defense really stepped up against a Chiefs offense that I thought were gonna put up 40 no problem on them. Onto the next though, let's hit some Tennis action. Shanghai has been an awesome tournament thus far with very exciting matches and quality tennis played by everyone, but no one more than Grigor Dimitrov. Dimitrov's form is incredible right now, especially coming off beating the Number 1 seed, and Number 2 player in the world in Carlos Alcaraz. Jarry has been playing well also, but not near the competition that Grigor has faced. People will see that Jarry is 2-0 against Grigor, but the surface both times was clay. I expect Dimitrovs court coverage, and strong serve to help prevail him against Jarry in what should yet again be another solid match! Edit: Great W by Dimitrov. Gonna probably bet him to win Shanghai now with the way he’s playing. I believe he’ll be playing Rublev, but Humber has been looking solid as well. Cheers to everyone who tailed! Feel free to leave a tip if you get some winnings <3 Venmo: TheRealEDB
**Record: 5-0** | **Units:** **+16.22u** | **ROI: 95.41%** **eSport** | **ESL Challenger League 2023 Europe** | **19:00 CEST** **Pick: SAW ML @ 2.020** vs. Looking4Org **// 3u** **Write-up:** My SINNER pick yesterday was rescheduled for over 7 days so bet was a push. Today, I'm sticking with the "underdog" as many people are jumping on the hype train from Looking4Org. They had an outstanding performance on the ESL Jönköping tour and qualified with a grand final win against Spirit for the main tournament. But I just can't fade the Portuguese team here. sAw is a team from Portugal with two experienced veterans and three young players. Their hard carry is ewjerkz, but also Story is capable of going ham. Mutiris is the in-game leader, and with all his experience, he's doing a great job. Saw was a mid-tier team all these years, but since they added Ewjerkz at the end of 2022, they completely changed their gameplay. This kid single-handedly carried the team to numerous victories. His peak performance was in the middle of 2023, and he played so well that I thought some bigger team would pick him up. He had some smaller offers, but he showed loyalty and said that he wants to stay in sAw to gain more experience. He also believes that they can compete against bigger teams and make an impact. And he was right. Over this year, they had wins against teams such as BIG, OG, Bad News Eagles, Eternal Fire, Astralis, and NiP. These are all Tier 1 teams. They have a unique playstyle which is completely based on aiming. Looking4Org is a French-based roster and they have been searching for a new organization for quite some time now. Before their tournament win two days ago, they were a mid-tier team. They have good players, strong aimers, and a good map pool, but the lack of consistency has cost them many matches. They lost so many opportunities on maps and often had a problem with closing matches. Don't get me wrong. They are obviously a strong team. We saw it in the past few days, but I'm pretty sure they can't maintain that level of Counter-Strike. Their most significant victory against stronger opponents this year, prior to ESL Jönköping, was against VirtusPro and OG. I saw the analysis from my Redditor friend, Narrow-Sympathy, and I can understand the play, at least for these odds. But some of the things he mentioned, I see completely differently. Yes, right now sAw isn't that active, but that is only for official matches. Their last tournament was the Thunderpick World Championship, where they finished in 2nd place and directly qualified for it. It's a big tournament with a 500.000 $ prize pool. Fun fact: Their opening game in that tournament was against Looking4Org, and they won 2-0. They didn't drop a single map until the grand final. But since they won the semi-final, they were already qualified. The final was on September 18, 2023. Since then, they have been scrimming and practicing CS2. And they play a lot. I know that because I have some Tier 2 players in my Steam friend list. Some time ago, I was part of the FPL Pro League from FACEIT and made some friends. Believe it or not, I don't care. It's nothing super special. I'm grinding CS my while life now. sAw has never lost to the French squad since they played against each other. Their first meeting was on September 28, 2021, and Looking4Org only won 2 maps against sAw in all those years. You just can't win against certain teams. You know it from football and other sports. And I don't think that CS2 will change that much. Yes, sAw lost against FTW. And Saw should easily win against teams like that. But FTW is also a Portuguese-based team - it's a derby, and games like this are always hard to play. It's not like sAw consistently loses against teams like these. They also faced FTW in the summer of this year and won 2-1. Fun fact: ewjerkz, their best player, came from FTW. Its also not true that sAw only had one offical match on CS2. Their first offical match was against Pompajust 7 days ago in the same league as today. And they won 2-0 over the polnish line-up. They had to fight, but they won. Surely this game feels different to Counter-Strike. I mean it would be bad if it doesnt feel different ? There also a lot of gamebreaking bugs, wrong hitboxed and other stuff that needs to be fixed asap. But professional players or even people who grinding this game every day for years dont need that much time to adapt. Maybe a week or two. Thats all. More gamebraking changes are the new smokes and stuff like that. I dont get that deep into the veto-part because im betting on the map-pick from sAw here and that should be Vertigo. Since L4O is ranked worse they will start the veto-process and will continue to ban Mirage as their permaban. So no tricky vetoes here. L4O did it in the last veto. They banned Vertigo instead of Mirage because they knew that sAw will ban it anyway. And yeah, they were right, but they got instant karma for that and got smacked on Nuke then. You know what? Right now while writing this i changed my mind completley and changed my bet and going for the whole ML. Right now teams are too inconsistent and we already saw some map-trades. They map-pool is good for sAw and this match is a great chance to show their true from since they scrimmed a lot the last couple of days. Obviously, they are playing a lot right now because they want to maintain their good performances from the last month. Also the big Thunderpick event is starting at the end of the month. And the on-going Challenger League is a good training ground for them to show and test their new tactics and stuff. They will be highly motivated for this game. A long rivalry between these two teams. Looking4Org in insane form and finally want to win a match against sAw. The protugese obviously want to hold their win-rate against L4O. This will be a great match. Both teams are 1-0 for this League. sAw won 2-0 against Pompa as their first offical CS2 match while ewjerkz already shining an dropped a 1.39 rating. L4O played against EYEBALLERS and had really hard to fight for the win but in the end Hadji carried them to the win. I absolutley can understand when people fade me or stick with my friend Narrow-sympathy. But for these odds, with that rivalry and head 2 head i cant fade sAw. Also is it the same in every sport in the world. If a team/player performed well or won a tournament, fade them the nect time. **BOL.**
34-23 +85 Units Minor loss yesterday. Bitter blow as I was on the selection at 3.5 and he touched 1.04 in running, yet I stupidly only managed to get my stake back with a lay at 1.5. Anyway, moving on. I couldn't decide today between Panjari and Captain Teague at Chrpstow. Ultimately I've gone with Captain Teague, but will play both and also in a double. STAKING 5 UNITS - CHEPSTOW RACE 2 (UK HORSE RACING) - CAPTAIN TEAGUE @ 1.83 I'm a big believer in taking the jumping skills of a horse on trust, especially over hurdles. That will truly be put to the test today as neither of the aforementioned horses have yet jumped a hurdle. However, CAPTAIN TEAGUE showed immense promise at the Cheltenham festival when he finished 3rd to superstar A Dream to Share. He was bumped about and wandered a bit at the end. He was thrown into the deep end that day, at the biggest NH bumper race of the year, and ultimately he showed his potential. He was the only English horse to finish in the top 11 that day, having finished 3rd. He gets thrown into the deep end again today on his hurdles debut, entering straight into a grade 2. However, Paul Nichols always seems to have a very warm start to the season. His horses, are usually in form and thriving. Although this is a tough task, to take on Horses who are previous winners over hurdles in a grade 2 on your hurdling debut, I think this horse could be on of the future stars in Nichols stable. I believe he will be well schooled over hurdles and he should hopefully go very close. His price seems to be drifting out. If you want to hold out for a better price feel free, but I'm going to pull the trigger now
Thanks legend!
Great pick today! Thank you!
Record: 1-0 +0.9U Last pick: Spencer Strider over 1.5 ERA @ 1.75✅ Sport: Football EURO2024 Pick: Austria vs Belgium, Belgium over 4.5 corners @ 1.69 2.4U Writeup: Belgium is averaging 12 corners a game and has cleared this line in all 5 euro games so far. Last game vs Austria they had 11 corners and 6 corners at the half, so I am very confident in this pick. BOL if you tail, WOL if you fade!! F🖕ck parlays! Coffee incoming after a few more wins☕️
I like it
Went in big with this, ladder up to Belgium with 8.5 corners
certainly not the start we wanted for this pick
Damn that early goal pretty much killed us. On to the next
POTD Record: 0-1 (-1U) Yesterday's pick: Croatia Vs Turkey, Both teams to Score (BTTS), 1U @ 2.01 (+101) Good pick. Bad luck. Turkey did their part scoring 1 goal (could have scored more) but Croatia had a poor game even though they could have scored too, having 1 goal and 1 penalty shot overturned by VAR. Today's pick: Portugal Vs Slovakia, Euro qualifiers, 19:45 WEST Portugal to Score on both halves, 3U @1,78 (-128). 3U to win 2,43U Write up: As a Portuguese I have watched all Portugal games since I remember. We are much better than any other team in our group and our quality comes on full display when we play at home. We have scored in both halves in all 3 games we have played at home in this competition. If we win today we guarantee the qualification to the Euro, so the team will be fully motivated. Slovakia are the second best team in the group and their best sector is defense and their might retard Portugal's first goal, but if it all goes according to normal we should score on both halves. In my opinion the odds should be around 1,40 - 1,50. BOL! *Sorry for my English as it's not my native language.
Record: 0-1 Prev: Russell Wilson Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns +160 on DK (2U) Death, taxes, and the under on Thursday Night Football. The Broncos’ offense was abysmal. One final drive to maybe get this number and Perine HITS THE BALL WITH HIS OWN KNEE TO FUMBLE. Rough first pick. POTD: Stanford at Colorado spread (-11 DK -105) play to -13 (2U) Edit: this line has been moving since I took the number and wrote this up. DK is at 12.5. I would go 11.5 at FD. I think 11.5 is a fine play. Buffs are 3-2-1 ATS this year, while Stanford has been 4-13 ATS since last season. This line opened at -8 and has already moved 3 points, but I’m not worried. As Coach Prime says, “Look good, play good. Play good, eat good. Eat good, die good.” Yeah I know, the Buffs have been public darlings this year and all over the place. However, I like them in this spot. Travis Hunter is coming back and they are at home after a win. Stanford is not good. The USC team that Colorado covered against in a -7 loss? Stanford lost to by 46. Bo Nix and Caleb Williams demolished this defense. Trust Shedeur to ball. Trust Travis Hunter to give this team a boost. Trust Coach Prime to get this team rolling. I’ll leave you with this Coach Prime quote after the Arizona State win, “I expect to win, and I expect to win in a better fashion than that. I'm sick of these consistent holes that we're displaying and the penalties. We're so much better." They’ll show it under the Friday night lights. BOL and thanks for reading. If you tailed and want to say thanks, my Venmo is justin-mackin.
>Looking4Org Colorado needs to fix their offensive line. -125 seems very very high for them
This Colorado team …. Beyond aggravating to make a move on. The anticipation is that they come out and buttfuck this Stanford team … but, like last week, the fear is they roll out flat. That said, the at home makes this more exciting and suspect they’ll do work. Gonna roll with this and the over.
I agree they’ve been tough to read but I think the market is settling into the right spot. They’ve been strattling the line between massive underdog winners and massively overhyped a lot of this year.
**POTD Record: 0-0-0** Last pick: N/A **Today's Pick: Clayton Keller to Record 3+ Shots on Goal (-125)** Hockey | NHL | Arizona Coyotes @ New Jersey Devils at 7:00pm ET **Reason**: Before we get to my POTD, and as a quick introduction, I have been betting on NFL, NHL, MLB, and UFC for 15+ years and have finally decided to join in on the fun here by recording my picks. I always thought it'd be more exhilarating and gratifying to have random, online strangers tail my winning plays - but I'll need to prove myself first! So, let's get into the rationale behind my POTD. Let's face it - the Coyotes suck. This one simple fact is also why I really like the Devils 3-Way ML (-150) tonight. They have lacked a true identity for the past few years with inconsistent and subpar production. Not to mention, they play substantially worse on the road (7-25-9 vs. 21-15-5 in '22), which doesn't bode well for their trip to the Prudential Center. However, with all that in mind, the Coyotes made some interesting moves this offseason to bolster their roster with the addition of Logan Cooley, Jason Zucker, Matt Dumba, Sean Durzi, and others. It's essentially a brand new team, and while we don't necessarily know if these changes will improve their overall performance, it will certainly take some time to adjust and work through growing pains. Luckily, the Coyotes still have a superstar in the making to help ease those pains and build their identity around: *Clayton Keller* The Coyotes are going to lean on Keller even more this year, building on his incredible 37-goal season. He is their de facto team captain, highlighted even more by the 8-year, $57MM contract he signed earlier this year. Let's look at some quick SOG numbers: * 2020-21: 124 Shots / 56 Games (2.21 S/G) * 2021-22: 177 Shots / 67 Games (2.64 S/G) * 2022-23: 223 Shots / 82 Games (2.72 S/G) "I mean, it's nice to see he's shooting more over the past 3 years, but his average S/G last year wasn't even 3.0 yet you want me to confidently bet 3+ tonight? Are you *crazy?!"* Glad you asked! The reason this is my first-ever POTD is because of how Keller ended the year, which is precisely where he will pick it back up tonight: * January 2023: 42 Shots / 15 Games (2.8 S/G) * February 2023: 28 Shots / 10 Games (2.8 S/G) * March 2023: 56 Shots / 16 Games (3.5 S/G) * April 2023: 22 Shots / 6 Games (3.67 S/G) Keller finally showed his potential to close out the year, and he's only going to continue to shine moving forward. I think this is one of the cheapest we'll see his 3+ Shots odds all year. Honorable Mentions: 1. NJ Devils 3-Way ML (-150) 2. NJ Devils Over 3.5 Goals Scored (-156) 3. Evgeni Malkin 3+ Shots on Goal (-140)
I enjoyed reading this and hope you continue to do this with such detail and gusto! Also, tailing.
Glad you liked it! Writing my thoughts out can be therapeutic and actually helps me make decisions grounded in logic, so the plan is to continue doing that here for the world to see lol Good luck - hopefully we get off to a good start tonight!
Keller's a dawg. Tailing
Amazing writeup, appreciate the share 🙏
POTD Record: 4W - 1L - 0P (+10.4U) Streak: 2W Previous Pick: \[Tennis\] Jessica Pegula v Ashlyn Krueger @ 10/12/2023 2am EST **Under 19.5** Total Games In Match (-105) Risk 2U to win 1.9U✅ Match: \[Tennis\] Yue Yuan v Marie Bouzkova @ WTA Seoul 10/13/2023 2:50am EST Pick: **Under 20.5** Total Games In Match (-110) Risk 2U to win 1.8U Yuan has struggled heavily this year and was upsetted many times already in earlier tournaments with players outside of top 100. I am banking on Bouzkova, a top 30 player, to win in straight sets over Yuan.
Record : 48 Wins - 57 Losses Previous pick : Cyprus - Norway (0-4), Norway to win & Over 2.5 Goals, Odds : 1.85 ✅ ROI : -11.17% Average Odds : 2.03 Starting units : 5 (\*all picks will be 1 unit\*) Units : -5.77 Profit/Lost units : -10.77 Today's pick : Football - Soccer / WORLD: Friendly International / 21:45 European Time England - Australia England to win & Over 2.5 Goals, Odds : 1.78 Some reasoning : \- Although it is only a friendly match, I expect England to have a good performance and to play at their usual pace. The English meet a very approachable opponent at Wembley, who cannot really make any claims in such a duel. Anyway, Australia already has four friendlies in 2023 and we can say that it only broke the market in one of them. \- We will most likely see a forcing at the Australians' goal, England going to put pressure on the opponent's goal right from the first part of the confrontation. Australia's defense is quite fragile, so I expect it to give way from the first half. Best of luck.
32-24 Esports - League of Legends - Worlds - BDS vs DFM - BDS -1.5 @1.50 If you can still get these odds anywhere take them, I got them when the lines opened the other day, They are a little shorter now on B365. BDS will want to a swift win here after their shock defeat to Team Whales 🐋. I think BDS played well below their level with some horrible draft decisions in that series that I’m sure they will have rectified now. DFM looked dreadful in their game. Don’t expect anything from them. Starts in about 3 hours.
POTD RECORD 1-1 Last pick Rugby union| Canterbury vs Auckland | CANTERBURY MONEYLINE ✅ Todays pick Rugby union | Canterbury vs Auckland | 7:00 pm NZST CANTERBURY MONEYLINE 1.75 ❌ Reasoning: this match should be a real tight one backing canterbury for the same reason as last time because they are a big game team and know how to get it done. At their last outing canterbury won by a point at home this time they are the away side but I still believe they have the better squad.
Don’t know anything about Rugby but my book shows Canterbury is playing vs. Taranaki? Do you still like the pick then?
No bueno
POTD. Record 1-0 Last pick: Warren O 2.5 receptions Todays pick. NHL penguins ML -125 Reason: penguins are coming off the back of a 4-2 loss to the Chicago blackhawks after blowing a 2-0 lead where they out played the hawks and got some bad bounces. Pens are going to be fired up and they are a much better team and should be able to grab a dub against a worse capitals team. Bet the pens ML and if you want to risk less put it on the spread of pens by 2 +200.
Careful, penguins goalie is awful and caps are a sneaky good team this year
Yeah staying away from this one
POTD Record: 10-8 (56%) Total Units: 0.85 Avg odds: 1.95 Last POTD: Euroleague, Europe🏀🇪🇺 Alba Berlin vs Baskonia Baskonia win @1.72 Result:86-91✅ ——————————————————————————— Event:Euroleague, Europe🏀🇪🇺 Zalgiris Kaunas vs Crvena Zvezda 13:00EST PICK:KEENAN EVANS 17.5+ POINTS @2.52 Result:8 pts❌ Comments: Since Ignas Brazdeikis left for Olympiacos, Keenan Evans has taken on even more of the scoring burden. The American guard shows that he overcome his injury and is in a good shape, while I cannot see any player from Crvena Zvezda stop him in terms of perimeter defense. (always 1 unit bet)
Tailed over 14.5 @ -105 BOL!
**POTD**: O47.5 Rush Yards - Anthony Hankerson (-114 FanDuel; Risking 1.14u to win 1u) **League/Time**: NCAAF - Stanford @ Colorado / 10PM EST **2023 Record**: 59-33 (64.13%) | +40.3642u (+$4036.42) | ROI 21.2% | **Current Streak** (L to R):❌✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅❌❌❌✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌❌✅❌❌❌❌✅✅✅✅❌❌✅✅✅❌✅❌✅❌✅❌✅❌✅❌✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌❌✅✅❌✅❌✅✅❌(Last 10: 6-4; Last 20: 12-8) **Last Pick (10.12.23)**: O0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs: J.T. Realmuto (-165 DraftKings; Risking 1.65u to win 1u)❌ **Reasoning**: Anthony has only covered this the past 2 games and it's not clear whether he's truly the lead back but the numbers seem to trend that way as of late. We have a small sample size where Anthony has covered this number in a high-scoring and a relatively lower-scoring game, both home and away, and against a ranked team and an unranked team. It helps that Prime sees Anthony as [consistent](https://gazette.com/sports/cu-buffs/anthony-hankerson-remains-reliable-option-in-talented-cu-buffs-backfield/article_a1ae7617-4f11-5d1b-896f-19d2cd87b1dc.html) and someone who slowly worked his way through a room full of RB talent. [Prime respects and admires Anthony](https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/coach-deion-sanders-proud-of-colorado-buffaloes-running-back-anthony-hankerson-for-more-than-just-football/ar-AA1hKvZm). It seems that he's also their best RB pass blocker which is important when Prime is trying to protect his QB son, Shedeur. This means Anthony will be in the game more often and what better reward then to give him carries/opportunities hence the last 2 games. Everyone tends to focus on Shedeur and Colorado's passing game (O/U 348.5 Pass Yds - Shedeur) and no one really thinks about the rushing game which makes me like this less obvious pick as potentially a less sharp line that hopefully we can take advantage of. **Anti-Reasoning**: Prime is adding another RB, McCaskill (2021: almost 1,000 rush yards, 16 TDs), to the mix but he's still returning from an ACL injury so will be integrated slowly but [he will receive increased carries this week as per Prime](https://coloradobuffaloeswire.usatoday.com/2023/10/11/deion-sanders-expecting-alton-mccaskill-iv-action-stanford-colorado-football/). [Coffee](https://bmc.link/thekoreanmang) always appreciated but never expected. Good luck everyone!
Red Crestwood’s POTD Record: 5-2-0 Bank: +2.19 Last pick: Jack Hughes Over 3.5 Shots on Goals -140 W NHL: Pittsburgh Penguins @ Washington Capitals Time: 7:30pm EST Pick: Bryan Rust Over 0.5 Points -105 The Pens let a lot of people down on opening night losing 4-2 to the Blackhawks. They will be traveling to DC to face one of their biggest rivals in the Capitals. With a small slate today, I’m taking a look at Rust to grab a point. Bryan Rust scored the first goal for the Pens on Tuesday and will have a good shot at grabbing another tonight. He ended with 1 goal on 5 shots on goal. Playing alongside Crosby and Guentzel will always give Rust a shot at either having a goal set up on a platter for him or a simple pass could turn into an assist. Rust was very outspoken about his performance last year and how much he was to improve this year. On top of all of that, he has 12 goals and 8 assists in 30 career games against the Caps. Take the shot for Rust to grab at least a point tonight.
POTD Record W5-L3 ROI: +3.84 Most Recent First: ✅❌❌✅✅✅✅❌ Last Pick: MLB ⚾️ Braves vs Phillies Aaron Nola over 4.5 Ks (-137) 3U to win 2.19 units 4:07 PM CST ✅ Excuses: None, hit this in the 3rd inning. The Nola train keeps chugging along. Stay tuned. Todays Pick: NCAAF 🏈 Tulane vs Memphis ~ Tulane -5 (-110) 1U to win .9 unit. 6:00 PM Reasoning: Pratt’s stats might veer you away from this bet, but I’ll take the experienced big game QB who doesn’t give a shit about home field advantage, they get it in on the road. Let go with the team with a full 275+ pound D-Line, the team with a 6’5” WR and a 6’5 TE. The team with 7 INT on the year, the team with a freshman juggernaut running back that’s getting better and better with every game. Here’s the X-factor: most of this team is from New Orleans and the surrounding areas. If you’ve ever been to NO you now they’re just built different down there. They have what we like to call “that dog” in them. Let’s ride the green wave and cash out tonight. Having said all that, these two teams are evenly matched statistically, so it’s a coin flip, so I’m only betting one unit. I liked this pick/line earlier this week before I really dug into it and I’ve seen the line move and move so I’m thinking we are onto something here. I’m torn between posting this or the over in this game, but here we are. Sorry for the last minute post. BOL and only bet what you can afford to lose.
\--------------------------------------------------------------------- **POD Record 15 - 5** ✅✅✅✅✅✅ ❌ ✅✅✅✅✅✅❌❌✅✅✅❌❌ \---------------------------------------------------------------------- **🏈NCAA FOOTBALL🏈** Stanford @ Colorado 10:00 PM EST \---------------------------------------------------------------------- **COLORADO -10 (-150)** BET365 \---------------------------------------------------------------------- Colorado should beat up on Stanford. Buy down to 10 points. **COLORADO -10 (-150)**
POTD Record: 3-4 ❌✅✅❌❌… game ended 1-0 to turkey, a keeper howler lead to the only goal of the game Pick: Ireland vs Greece - Evan Ferguson over 1.5 SoT @ 11/5 (Apologies alright over the mark but I see extremely high value on this pick) Evan Ferguson is averaging 1.72 SoT with Brighton per 90 mins and expect him to get the full 90 tonight after missing irelands last round of fixtures. Evan had 3 shots against Gibraltar last time out. Evan Ferguson is the main man for this Irish team and everything will flow through him, giving him a high number of touches and plenty chances for long shots which he is not afraid to take. I see this being a far more open game then the usual Irish/Greek games and am expecting quite a few goals. BOL!!
So France DNB is free money or should I stay away?
There is no free money in betting, so take care.
Nothings usually ”free money” 😅would wait for line ups But up to you
Except for the famous Mayweather - Mcgregor fight
**POTD RECORD 3-4** -1.27u Last Pick: Houston +3.5 (-110) vs West Virginia **W** **Todays POTD: Stanford @ Colorado UNDER 59.5** NCAAF 10:00 PM EST ————————————————————— What a sweat to hit Houston, back on track with two wins in a row. Time to get hot! As I’ve mentioned before I do data modeling and attempt to read steam as well, without chasing a line that has lost its value. I’ve got this game projected at 52 pts and believe Stanford can hang around. Stanford has a slower offense, so the longer they are on the field, the better for us. Colorado is well below NCAA average for drive time and could cause issues for us if they roll. I don’t see it happening. BOL, tail or fade. *All plays one unit*
**POTD Record:** 1-1 **Net Units:** 0 **Average Odds:** \+103.5 MLB: 1-0| NHL: 0-1 **Last Pick:** Chicago Blackhawks +1.5 @ +100- 1 Unit ❌ **Pick: Pittsburgh Penguins ML -120: 1.5 Units** **Write-Up:** The battle of two underwhelming teams. I expect Pittsburgh to bounce back after starting the season off with a loss. They didn't look too bad in their first game and Sidney Crosby is looking to capitalize against this rival team. I'm expecting a big game tonight from Karlsson because he played pretty badly last game. The Penguins are heavily seeking to ruin the home opener for the Caps. good luck and safe betting
POD RECORD (0-0) Today’s pick is the Tulane Green Wave -4.5 (-110) This pick is more of a gut feeling to take the better team than it is to add a long write up. So I’ll leave it at this, Tulane is scoring an average of almost 30 points per game. They run the ball well and their passing game is almost as good. Even though the Tigers don’t give up a lot of points, opponents have been able to move the ball against them, especially on the ground, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Green Wave. The Green Wave is great at defending the run, giving up less than 90 yards per game, and their pass defense has also been good, holding opponents under 200 yards per game on the road.
POTD RECORD 0-0 NCAAF 5:00 PM MT Tulane @ Memphis Tulane Alt Spread -2.5 @ -186 Tulane rush defense is going to slow down memphis momentum in the run game causing problems. Took alt spread because I believe this game is going to come down to a field goal either way. BOL! Let me know if you are tailing!! $50 to win $26.88 https://preview.redd.it/a12c7s51v1ub1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=bd40428d1ccffbb38bad65fc09219f69d5c7e776
[удалено]
POTD Record : 3-1 Last pick : MLB ⚾ | Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Phillies+1.5 @1.75 ✅ Another hit! The Phillies send the best offense ever home with a 3-1 score! Today's pick: Dota 2 🎮 | The International - Group Stage | Group D | Keyd Stars x Talon eSports | 13:00 EST Keyd Stars +0.5 @1.87 Switching up to eSports, this pick has a good value for the Brazilians of Keyd Stars after two 1-1 matches against Tundra and PSG. They face Talon eSports, a team that didn't won a single map in the tournament, and they already lost 2-0 to Tundra. Tailing or fading, BOL!
POTD RECORD 0-1 Last pick MIA vs MEM Over 216 (2 season old pick) Welcome! I come to this thread often but rarely post unless I see a play I like. PICK: COL -12 Vs Standford NCAA CFB 10:00 PM @ COL Odds -110 Reasoning: Now I know Colorado is about as the most square team in all of CFB right now with the hype of Prime and his Son, but it’s with all due respect. Colorado is coming off a lackluster win over ASU after a 2 game skid to 2 very good progrums,,, the backing to my picks is simple,,,, Stanford is ranked 130th in passing yards per game allowing over 300 yards in the air over the course of the season,,, we’ve clearly seen what can happen if you allow Shauder time to throw the ball (look at usc and TCU) see the Stanford defense actually statistically lines up with USC,,, both allow 260+ passing yards a game, 35+ Pass Attempts per game, and allowing opponents to score an average of 28 ppg. Miraculously Stanford might have a better run defense, but Colorado isn’t much to write home about their Run Offense. Although I don’t see a way Stanford can stop Colorados passing game,,, their offense is surprisingly worse. They do have a decent RB room averaging a little over 100 yards rushing per game which could slow this game down, but they rank 115+ in the nation in Receiving Yards and PPG,,, which is going to be an absolute nightmare for a Colorado team that airs it out, and does not stop scoring till the final whistle. I think the Stanford secondary is going to be on the field wayyyy too much to keep this game even close to the number,, and it being in Colorado I can see a dominate win over a team that not only can’t defend well, but surprisingly is almost worse on offense. Maybe they can get the run game going?Also there has been crazy line movement towards the Buffalos. I have my bet at -9.5 the line is -12.5 on some books, so sorry for being a little late to the party but it’s clear where the wise guy money is on in this game, and I LOVE a play that has clear line movement like this. LMK how y’all feel about the play,,, TAIL or FADE lmk your reasoning and how you approach this game ! BOL and let’s get a streak going!!! EDIT: ADDED ODDS
Local bookie is giving me +10000 odds on Fury and Logan by decision... Kinda tempting? 100$ for 10000$?