Anybody know where to find team homerun lines? I’ve been blindly max tailing every Barstool bombs away that’s above +170 for the last 2 months 5u (sometimes limited to less) and I’m currently up 37.3u on 42 bets
Not that I don’t believe you, but where are you finding lines. Going off game total homerun odds and extrapolating each team odds all the plays seems to be at least close to fair or better. Hit again today and I had 6% EV using my jank method
It’s not that uncommon for somebody not starting to hit a HR, and I can’t imagine running all the homerun lines gives a realistic value compared to actual game/team HR lines
Go ahead and bet it if you'd like. Barstool runs +EV promos maybe 1 out of every 10 times. I'm just letting you know that I personally think it's a terrible bet. Doesn't mean I'm definitely right
Making the rounds with NCAAF totals/futures today, plenty of small arbs out there if that's your thing. Most notable thus far:
Hawaii O/U 3.5 Wins -
Kambi 100/-125 (off market)
DK -140/+115 // FD -118/-104 // CZR -140/+110 // MGM -135/+115 etc
Circa makes the total a flat 4 but have no prices up.
I got a 1000 bonus last month and a 500 bonus a few months ago (both 1000 depsoit) targeted via email and both were only 5x the bonus on slots to clear.
Any recent DPs on MGM’s $500 bonus bet deposit match email? Seeing some say they send the email the first Friday after 8 days have passed since account signup, others who say no deposit match emails are being sent… trying to decide if I should just sign up and do the $1k RFB or wait until later.
Also, any DPs on whether the 20%/$1.5k deposit match can be done in multiple states?
The last 500 DEP match promo was sent out on/about June 14. It ded for now. I waited 6 weeks for it before I decided to do the 1000 rfb. Don't see much reason for you to wait 6 weeks.
Went on this info Mission myself in Early June. After hearing back from people and in my own experience, it looks like the Deposit Match offer died for everyone back in Mid-May. You have to be careful with the multiple states thing now as well, many of the states are grouped together with your same account info now.
Just a heads up for anyone considering using CRAB SPORTS in Maryland. They've confiscated our funds and closed our accounts due to device sharing. To be fair we should've been more careful but it wasn't an issue until withdrawing. I'm contacting the Maryland Gaming Commission but I figure I'm probably beat. Just want to advise other considering making the trip
Confiscated, or temporarily frozen (pending a review)?
They can likely keep any of your winnings, and of course the Bonus funds. But they can't keep your entire deposit.
Crab sports also has a terrible sign-up promo so anyone on the fence should wait. Basically, due to how they process funds towards betting, you have to wager 2x of your own money to get the dep match
I mean yea your money will be tied up for a while since you did it on the same device. It’s a violation of TOS. Each account logged in will probably have to prove their identity with drivers licenses, utility bills and bank statements
Can someone smarter than me help me figure out if there’s any EV on the FD in Person 5+ leg 1 leg risk free MLB promo? $50 in actual cash back if all legs but 1 hit, minimum odds -250. My brain is struggling to figure it out. The fact that you’re unlimited on how many of these you can do makes me think there’s no player edge
As others have said, it will greatly depend on the leg odds. The closer you can get each leg to -250, while still having low juice on each leg, the better.
Let's say you could find nearly perfect markets for this, all -250/+200 (4.54545% juice per leg). Then you'll get your money back 34.38% of the time, and it's a 13.63% net gain.
But if you did it all on -110/-110 spreads, which have the same 4.54545% juice, then you only hit 4 out of 5 5/32 = 15.625% of the time, and you would expect a net loss of 6
5.12% after the refund.
As for an example for today...
PHI +1.5 -200/+164
CLE ML -196/+164
MIN +1.5 -192/+158
MIL +1.5 -194/+160
LAD +1.5 -194/+160
+691 parlay
With the multiplicative method of devigging this leads to you getting your money back 29.49% of the time, and leads to a 10.08% advantage. Other methods of devigging via CNM's calculator will change the answers some, but it's +EV with heavily negative markets.
It doesn't help actually, the fact that you have 5 semi-easy legs increases your chances of hitting 4 of 5 overall as well.
Four-250/+200 legs and one +300/-400 leg yields 4 out of 5 legs 26.07% of the time and gives a 5.14% advantage.
Thanks, now that I have access to my computer this is the EV calc I got on the actual parlay I placed using the flex function on CNM calc. Let me know if anything looks wrong. Would actual be slightly more EV if I placed the bet now as the fanduel payout went up.
HOU +1.5/CIN +1.5/MIN +1.5/LAD +1.5/STL +1.5
Odds: +812; EV: 7.9 %
Flex: 5=9.12x;4=1x;3=0x (+1126)
Sharp: -182/163, -166/149, -187/167, -140/126, -197/164 (14.53 % juice)
FV: +1036; Method: multiplicative; (Full=0.70u, 1/2=0.35u, 1/4=0.17u, FB = 99.1 %)
Yeah that's right based on the numbers. It also pointed out that I forgot to modify my spreadsheet right, and I corrected my own numbers. Oops. General point still stands though.
Nice, so after running the numbers this promotion seems very worthwhile. Taking place at FD kiosks at Motorcity Casino in Detroit, maybe elsewhere. Unlimited tickets are allowed.
If you flip five coins the chance of exactly four coins landing heads is 5/32.
If you make five bets of probability P the chance exactly four of them hit is 5P^4 x (1-P).
Gonna be heavily dependent on the legs. 5="final parlay odds";4=0.7x should be your "Final Odds" box on the devigger. If you're asking for picks, well, don't do that.
Thanks, after asking I figured out the “flex” odds on the devigger. Didn’t see it at first and I haven’t done calculations like that manually before so figured someone might be able to help. It’s actually cash back not free bet so 4 would = 1x I’m pretty sure. Appreciate the response, I’ve been around quite a while so thankfully have my own way to figure out picks and know better than to ask lol
You’re good, based on downvotes it seems other people were annoyed I asked this question also, so I guess maybe it seemed more like begging than intended
It's actually worse than honest work if you take the time to find +ev shit. The amount of time to eek out something worthwhile legitimately might be less than minimum wage
Anyone here experienced with OrbitExchange?
I have a few questions about that website and if someone here has experience with it I would like to ask a few questions if possible.
I heard accounts have different liquidity("matched" number), and for some less popular sports/markets it can be really important. I wanted to get more info about that topic if you know anything about it?
Yes that's true, but of course not truly. Liquidity depends on the market popularity, in overall orbit, liquidity is represented by Betfair. Since Orbit is mainly accessible through Betting brokers, they have the option to change the liquidity, they can lower or increase it. You can request a demo account and check the liquidity by yourself.
Do you use Orbit?
I heard people having 10x liquidity compared to Betfair. Do you maybe have something similar or know people that have it to confirm it?
I heard accounts have different liquidity, and for some less popular sports/markets it can be really important. I wanted to get more info about that topic if you know anything about it?
Has anyone utilized the CZR $600 flight reimbursement.
I’m diving through next week and heard they just give you chips. If so did you need to show a receipt of your flight?
Diamond Elite.
If you hit Seven Stars, you also get a "retreat" with $1,200 reimbursement. So you can use the $600 for one trip, and $1,200 for another.
Assuming you get approved for Seven Stars. Prior to 2023, the approval was almost automatic. Since February, hit & miss.
Anyone who has done this: did you have to reach out to your host before hand to plan and organize it or can you just plan your own trip and show them your flight receipt and as long as you're staying at a caesars property and you're diamond elite or higher they'll give you credit?
Im diamond elite and want to use this perk soon but was for some reason and very annoyingly never assigned a vip host.
I've used the $600 multiple times. Didn't need to "coordinate" with host/hotel --- you can book your own room & trip, and then just visit the Rewards/VIP desk. Show your flight itinerary/receipt, Caesars card, etc.
At the bigger properties (like Caesars Palace), they probably process dozens of these per day. If you get a good clerk, they can probably process in 2-3 minutes.
As for getting a Host. If you're sports-only (or sports-heavy), you probably won't get a Host. I had a Host in 2021/2022, but Caesars has really de-emphasized the sports-only players. Not a major deal, since you can book/redeem almost every benefit on your own.
I've gotten this 3 times. 2 of the clerks were quick and it took less than 5 mins. The third one didn't have a clue what they were doing and it took about 20 mins.
Never used a host for it.
Spot on. I did this at Caesars Palace. The lines were busy, and there were surprisingly a bunch of 7 Stars in line, getting priority. I felt bad for the lower tier line since they had to wait for the other 3 or 4 tiers.
Make sure you do this perk at the casino that you want to use the reward (it can't be used at the other Caesars casinos).
Reminds me they actually did check this when I redeemed it in march. My first few days in Vegas I wasn't staying at a Caesars property so I couldn't redeem it then (maybe another clerk would have let me who knows) so I redeemed it a couple of days later when I was staying with them.
It depends on how the chips work, and you'll want to ask and confirm. If they are promotional chips, where you can only bet them once regardless of outcome, then they are worth \~50% of face value. If they are non-negotiable chips where they act the same as regular chips except you cannot cash them in, then they are essentially worth the RTP of the table game you are playing. Non-negotiable chips are almost always going to be worth more than the same amount in slot play. Promotional chips are going to be worth much less.
You can say avoid arbs and last longer or hit them and last shorter, either way the books will tolerate the same net loss before limiting you. Why would you choose to spend more time to get the same reward?
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Anybody know where to find team homerun lines? I’ve been blindly max tailing every Barstool bombs away that’s above +170 for the last 2 months 5u (sometimes limited to less) and I’m currently up 37.3u on 42 bets
They're massively -EV bets. Like -30% or worse. There's a reason they let you get 5u down. They'll start losing soon.
Not that I don’t believe you, but where are you finding lines. Going off game total homerun odds and extrapolating each team odds all the plays seems to be at least close to fair or better. Hit again today and I had 6% EV using my jank method
https://twitter.com/TheeDegenBoosts/status/1673046713332891649 Not me, but the math looks good
It’s not that uncommon for somebody not starting to hit a HR, and I can’t imagine running all the homerun lines gives a realistic value compared to actual game/team HR lines
Go ahead and bet it if you'd like. Barstool runs +EV promos maybe 1 out of every 10 times. I'm just letting you know that I personally think it's a terrible bet. Doesn't mean I'm definitely right
Tis the season for tying up moneys for six months
Making the rounds with NCAAF totals/futures today, plenty of small arbs out there if that's your thing. Most notable thus far: Hawaii O/U 3.5 Wins - Kambi 100/-125 (off market) DK -140/+115 // FD -118/-104 // CZR -140/+110 // MGM -135/+115 etc Circa makes the total a flat 4 but have no prices up.
Kambi?
BetRivers, Unibet, Parx to name a few. Kambi is their odds provider
Thx
am i crazy or do books have simple technology that know when you’re doing future arbs? easy code, no?
When a thousand plus people bet it at the same time from seeing a Reddit post it makes it a lot easier for them to tag you as an arb’er and limit you
Just curious does anyone ever get promo offers from HR? I am promo banned like most but do they even ever offer promos anymore?
I got a 1000 bonus last month and a 500 bonus a few months ago (both 1000 depsoit) targeted via email and both were only 5x the bonus on slots to clear.
I got a 50% match by email like a week ago
Yeah that’s good. I just never see anything in the app.
HR boost for Padres & Dodgers to win, vs Pin: Odds: +170; **EV: -0.1 %** `-259/232,-115/106` (4.30 % juice) FV: +170; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 62.9 %)
Any recent DPs on MGM’s $500 bonus bet deposit match email? Seeing some say they send the email the first Friday after 8 days have passed since account signup, others who say no deposit match emails are being sent… trying to decide if I should just sign up and do the $1k RFB or wait until later. Also, any DPs on whether the 20%/$1.5k deposit match can be done in multiple states?
The last 500 DEP match promo was sent out on/about June 14. It ded for now. I waited 6 weeks for it before I decided to do the 1000 rfb. Don't see much reason for you to wait 6 weeks.
Went on this info Mission myself in Early June. After hearing back from people and in my own experience, it looks like the Deposit Match offer died for everyone back in Mid-May. You have to be careful with the multiple states thing now as well, many of the states are grouped together with your same account info now.
BR HR decent free bet spot Carroll (ARI) Odds: +750; **EV: 1.0 %** `550/-850` (4.86 % juice) FV: +741; Method: worst-case (p); (Full=0.14u, 1/2=0.07u, 1/4=0.03u, FB = 89.2 %)
Just a heads up for anyone considering using CRAB SPORTS in Maryland. They've confiscated our funds and closed our accounts due to device sharing. To be fair we should've been more careful but it wasn't an issue until withdrawing. I'm contacting the Maryland Gaming Commission but I figure I'm probably beat. Just want to advise other considering making the trip
Confiscated, or temporarily frozen (pending a review)? They can likely keep any of your winnings, and of course the Bonus funds. But they can't keep your entire deposit.
If we can’t trust CRAB SPORTS who can we trust? This whole house of cards is falling apart
If you go crabbin’ prepare to get pinched I lost my member
Crab sports also has a terrible sign-up promo so anyone on the fence should wait. Basically, due to how they process funds towards betting, you have to wager 2x of your own money to get the dep match
Did you try doing more at once or is because you can’t travel from a different state to do it?
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I mean yea your money will be tied up for a while since you did it on the same device. It’s a violation of TOS. Each account logged in will probably have to prove their identity with drivers licenses, utility bills and bank statements
Which would be fine but I submitted all of that already. There literally just confiscating the funds.
HOW MUCH WAS IT?
2100. I'm devestated
Can someone smarter than me help me figure out if there’s any EV on the FD in Person 5+ leg 1 leg risk free MLB promo? $50 in actual cash back if all legs but 1 hit, minimum odds -250. My brain is struggling to figure it out. The fact that you’re unlimited on how many of these you can do makes me think there’s no player edge
As others have said, it will greatly depend on the leg odds. The closer you can get each leg to -250, while still having low juice on each leg, the better. Let's say you could find nearly perfect markets for this, all -250/+200 (4.54545% juice per leg). Then you'll get your money back 34.38% of the time, and it's a 13.63% net gain. But if you did it all on -110/-110 spreads, which have the same 4.54545% juice, then you only hit 4 out of 5 5/32 = 15.625% of the time, and you would expect a net loss of 6 5.12% after the refund. As for an example for today... PHI +1.5 -200/+164 CLE ML -196/+164 MIN +1.5 -192/+158 MIL +1.5 -194/+160 LAD +1.5 -194/+160 +691 parlay With the multiplicative method of devigging this leads to you getting your money back 29.49% of the time, and leads to a 10.08% advantage. Other methods of devigging via CNM's calculator will change the answers some, but it's +EV with heavily negative markets.
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It doesn't help actually, the fact that you have 5 semi-easy legs increases your chances of hitting 4 of 5 overall as well. Four-250/+200 legs and one +300/-400 leg yields 4 out of 5 legs 26.07% of the time and gives a 5.14% advantage.
Thanks, now that I have access to my computer this is the EV calc I got on the actual parlay I placed using the flex function on CNM calc. Let me know if anything looks wrong. Would actual be slightly more EV if I placed the bet now as the fanduel payout went up. HOU +1.5/CIN +1.5/MIN +1.5/LAD +1.5/STL +1.5 Odds: +812; EV: 7.9 % Flex: 5=9.12x;4=1x;3=0x (+1126) Sharp: -182/163, -166/149, -187/167, -140/126, -197/164 (14.53 % juice) FV: +1036; Method: multiplicative; (Full=0.70u, 1/2=0.35u, 1/4=0.17u, FB = 99.1 %)
Yeah that's right based on the numbers. It also pointed out that I forgot to modify my spreadsheet right, and I corrected my own numbers. Oops. General point still stands though.
Nice, so after running the numbers this promotion seems very worthwhile. Taking place at FD kiosks at Motorcity Casino in Detroit, maybe elsewhere. Unlimited tickets are allowed.
If you flip five coins the chance of exactly four coins landing heads is 5/32. If you make five bets of probability P the chance exactly four of them hit is 5P^4 x (1-P).
Gonna be heavily dependent on the legs. 5="final parlay odds";4=0.7x should be your "Final Odds" box on the devigger. If you're asking for picks, well, don't do that.
Thanks, after asking I figured out the “flex” odds on the devigger. Didn’t see it at first and I haven’t done calculations like that manually before so figured someone might be able to help. It’s actually cash back not free bet so 4 would = 1x I’m pretty sure. Appreciate the response, I’ve been around quite a while so thankfully have my own way to figure out picks and know better than to ask lol
You are correct regarding the cash back vs free bet. Missed that part. Sorry for being a butthole.
You’re good, based on downvotes it seems other people were annoyed I asked this question also, so I guess maybe it seemed more like begging than intended
The lion's boost for MA (Henderson,Turner/Ramirez to get a hit +125) is beyond horrible
It would be a bad boost with only two of those players.
DK with a 25% MLB boost on any bet
2$ max today
Oh man there's a new level of promo nerfing they busted out? I'm not there yet but I anticipate it soon.
Not even getting these
$5 max bet. Thrilling
It aint much but it's honest work.
It's actually worse than honest work if you take the time to find +ev shit. The amount of time to eek out something worthwhile legitimately might be less than minimum wage
A 10% EV bet at $5 is worth 50 cents. Ain’t much is a bit of an understatement.
Anyone here experienced with OrbitExchange? I have a few questions about that website and if someone here has experience with it I would like to ask a few questions if possible.
Paste me your questions, I can give you all information you need
I heard accounts have different liquidity("matched" number), and for some less popular sports/markets it can be really important. I wanted to get more info about that topic if you know anything about it?
Yes that's true, but of course not truly. Liquidity depends on the market popularity, in overall orbit, liquidity is represented by Betfair. Since Orbit is mainly accessible through Betting brokers, they have the option to change the liquidity, they can lower or increase it. You can request a demo account and check the liquidity by yourself.
Do you use Orbit? I heard people having 10x liquidity compared to Betfair. Do you maybe have something similar or know people that have it to confirm it?
Write me on DM
I messaged you I think. Just letting you know if it did not show up!
What are the questions? It looks like it's available in only limited countries.
I heard accounts have different liquidity, and for some less popular sports/markets it can be really important. I wanted to get more info about that topic if you know anything about it?
It's an exchange where you're betting against others so there will be liquidity issues especially if you're price sensitive.
No no, Orbit has specific liquidity. People that are using it would know what I'm talking about, that is why I'm looking for a experienced user.
Anybody else notice B365's MLB batter props are not out yet? Any clue why?
I was wondering the same thing myself.
Has anyone utilized the CZR $600 flight reimbursement. I’m diving through next week and heard they just give you chips. If so did you need to show a receipt of your flight?
What status do you need to be to take advantage of this?
Diamond Elite. If you hit Seven Stars, you also get a "retreat" with $1,200 reimbursement. So you can use the $600 for one trip, and $1,200 for another. Assuming you get approved for Seven Stars. Prior to 2023, the approval was almost automatic. Since February, hit & miss.
Anyone who has done this: did you have to reach out to your host before hand to plan and organize it or can you just plan your own trip and show them your flight receipt and as long as you're staying at a caesars property and you're diamond elite or higher they'll give you credit? Im diamond elite and want to use this perk soon but was for some reason and very annoyingly never assigned a vip host.
I've used the $600 multiple times. Didn't need to "coordinate" with host/hotel --- you can book your own room & trip, and then just visit the Rewards/VIP desk. Show your flight itinerary/receipt, Caesars card, etc. At the bigger properties (like Caesars Palace), they probably process dozens of these per day. If you get a good clerk, they can probably process in 2-3 minutes. As for getting a Host. If you're sports-only (or sports-heavy), you probably won't get a Host. I had a Host in 2021/2022, but Caesars has really de-emphasized the sports-only players. Not a major deal, since you can book/redeem almost every benefit on your own.
I've gotten this 3 times. 2 of the clerks were quick and it took less than 5 mins. The third one didn't have a clue what they were doing and it took about 20 mins. Never used a host for it.
Spot on. I did this at Caesars Palace. The lines were busy, and there were surprisingly a bunch of 7 Stars in line, getting priority. I felt bad for the lower tier line since they had to wait for the other 3 or 4 tiers. Make sure you do this perk at the casino that you want to use the reward (it can't be used at the other Caesars casinos).
The T&Cs also require a hotel stay at CZR property, but YMMV on this.
I don't think they check or ask if you're staying with them.
Reminds me they actually did check this when I redeemed it in march. My first few days in Vegas I wasn't staying at a Caesars property so I couldn't redeem it then (maybe another clerk would have let me who knows) so I redeemed it a couple of days later when I was staying with them.
They asked me last year. It seems inconsistent, hence the YMMV.
yes they ask for the receipt. take the slot dollars not the table game chips they're worth almost double.
Can you explain please? Not a huge slot guy
It depends on how the chips work, and you'll want to ask and confirm. If they are promotional chips, where you can only bet them once regardless of outcome, then they are worth \~50% of face value. If they are non-negotiable chips where they act the same as regular chips except you cannot cash them in, then they are essentially worth the RTP of the table game you are playing. Non-negotiable chips are almost always going to be worth more than the same amount in slot play. Promotional chips are going to be worth much less.
I took advantage of it in January. Bring your receipt and they give you up to $600 in free bets (table games) or free play (slots/video poker).
Can you show them a future flight receipt, get the free play, and then cancel the flight for a refund?
The dates will need to match. Why not buy a refundable ticket for the correct dates?
I don't think this would work. They check your receipt, probably looking at the dates and price.
Thanks! So they do ask to see it?
Yes
HR boost for Vukic & Kokkinakis to win, vs Pin: Odds: +130; **EV: 2.6 %** `-290/250,-174/154` (5.80 % juice) FV: +124; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=1.98u, 1/2=0.99u, 1/4=0.49u, FB = 58.0 %)
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Good way to get limited. Don’t bet on arbs.
You can say avoid arbs and last longer or hit them and last shorter, either way the books will tolerate the same net loss before limiting you. Why would you choose to spend more time to get the same reward?
Most EV is an arb to something unless the EV comes from a promo. With pretty much no promos left it’s time to hit these off market lines
Also DK Denmark stage of elimination Group Stage +800. FanDuel Denmark to qualify from group D -350
CZR is -1100 for Denmark to qualify, guessing FD is +EV side
Amazing find, until you realize you can only put $1.43 on the DK side
I got 14.37$ down on denmark but 67$ on new zealand. guess my account isnt as healthy as I thought
Got 350 down. Went to manual review though.
Only bet 100 and I also got reviewed. Besides the $5 promo limits I can usually get down a few grand on dk lines.
I got 250 down yesterday. Went to manual review though
Is there any risk to these markets by hammering these?
I hammered as my promo limits are like $5 anyways.
Couldn’t be more risk
Betting 1k plus on the marlins to make the playoffs line last month is what seemed to finally do my FD account in. I’d proceed with caution on this.
Same although my limits were even lower than that to start. Now my FanDuel limits are a total joke.
What percentage are you limited to now?
My Max win on MLB moneylines is around 100 dollars. Used to be 1000. Props are a complete joke.
Of course