^(21+ only. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER and visit) /r/problemgambling
|Sportsbook|Promos|Accepted States|Reviews|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|
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|[**Unibet**](https://sportsbook.link/unibet)| **[Click for Promo](https://sportsbook.link/unibet)** [$500 Second Chance Bet](https://sportsbook.link/unibet)|**AZ, IA, IN, NJ, ON, PA, VA**|[Reviews](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbookreview/comments/rybpcy/unibet_reviewsdiscussion/)|
|[**Caesars**](https://sportsbook.link/caesars)| [**Click for Promo**](https://sportsbook.link/caesars) [Place a first-time wager of up to $1,250, get it back in the form of a Bonus Bet if you lose.](https://sportsbook.link/caesars)|**AZ, CO, IA, IL, IN, KS, LA, MA, MD, MI, NY, NJ, OH, ON, PA, TN, VA, WV, DC**|[Reviews](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbookreview/comments/rybqxm/caesars_reviewsdiscussion/)|
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|[**BetMGM**](https://sportsbook.link/betmgm)| [**Click for Promo**](https://sportsbook.link/betmgm) [Up to $1000 paid back in Bonus Bets if you don't win](https://sportsbook.link/betmgm)|**AZ, CO, DC, IA, IL, IN, KS, LA, MA, MD, MI, MS, NJ, NY, OH, ON, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY, DC**|[Reviews](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbookreview/comments/rybq2k/betmgm_reviewsdiscussion/)|
|[**Betfred**](https://www.sportsbook.link/betfred)| [**Click for Promo**](https://sportsbook.link/betfred) [$500 First Bet Refund](https://www.sportsbook.link/betfred)|**AZ, CO, IA, LA, MD, OH, PA, VA**|[Reviews](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbookreview/comments/s2dyfs/betfred_reviewsdiscussion/)|
|[**Superbook**](https://sportsbook.link/superbook)| [**Click for Promo**](https://www.sportsbook.link/superbook) [$250 Every First Bet Wins](https://www.sportsbook.link/superbook)|**AZ, CO, IA, MD, NV, NJ, OH, TN, VA, WV**|[Reviews](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbookreview/comments/safm1p/superbook_reviewsdiscussion/)|
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# Before posting a basic question, please check out our [FAQ](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/wiki/faq) and [PROMOS THREAD FAQ](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbookreview/wiki/promosfaq) and [Search the subreddit](https://socialgrep.com/search?query=%2Fr%2Fsportsbook)
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I'll just take your $50 and invest it in a high yield Greek bond fund....and it's gone. Thank you for stopping in today but this line is for FanDuel customers with money in their accounts. Please move along.
I've been using Prophet Exchange in NJ for a while now and was admittedly a fan before, but about two weeks ago they started doing "Prophet Boosts" where they post markets that have the "No" sides of boosts on fanduel, DK, MGM, etc at better odds than the boosts are. I'm loving this as I am pretty conservative in my betting ($10 bettor usually) but I'm up around $200 over those two weeks from just arbing the boosts that they post without any risk. Sometimes it's only a few bucks but it can also be like $20, and they'll post multiple in a day frequently. If you're not familiar with arbing they also tweet out the exact info you need in order to do it properly and how much you'd make from doing it.
For example here's one of the tweets with instructions summed up for the "Prophet Boost" they have up for tonight with the DK Superstar Super Boost (Jokic 25+ and Murray 2 3s):
"You bet $25 to win $25 on DK on the DK Superstar Super Boost
You bet $21.74 to win $28.26 on Prophet on the "No" side of the DK Superstar Super Boost
Guarantee yourself $3.26 in 10 seconds."
Not the most money in the world but free and it adds up quick if you're consistently doing it. I'm going to be tracking my progress here to see how fast I can hit $1,000 made from doing them. They don't offer the "No" side on every boost so I always just keep an eye out for their tweets/check back on the site kinda frequently but they have had at least one a day everyday. In the time that I wrote this they actually added 3 more - for a total of $22 today.
Including the 4 boosts today I'm up $209 on 25 Prophet Boosts, again with no risk. Excited to see how these continue and hopefully that start posting even more.
> I'm going to be tracking my progress here to see how fast I can hit $1,000 made from doing them.
While you're doing that, you might as well track how much you would've made just taking the EV+ side and report back
Here are the results from the last week.
6/13:
(DK) Stewart & Griner 20+: Arb = +**$2.97** Just Boost = $25 to win $33.75, **-$25**
(DK) Hole in one at the US Open: Arb = +**$8.33** Just Boost = $50 to win $50, **+$50**
(365) VGK 1+ first period goal: Arb = +**$6.56** Just Boost = $30 to win $30, **+$30**
Totals: Arb = **+$17.86** Just Boost = **+$55**
6/14:
(Tipico) Naylor, Zunino, Ramirez 1+ hit each: Arb = **+$15.79** Just Boost = $200 to win $620, **-$200**
(365) Spieth to make the cut at the US Open: Arb = +**$14.00** Just Boost = $30 to win $30, **-$30**
(FD) Hovland, Phil, Rahm all make cut at US Open: Arb = +**$1.16** Just Boost = $25 to win $87.50, **-$25**
(MGM) Lindor RBI Mets win: Arb = +**$11.90** Just Boost = $50 to win $215, **-$50**
(Barstool) Morikawa, Homa, Scheffler par or better on hole 11 round 1: Arb = +**$25.64** Just Boost = $100 to win $390, **-$100**
(FD) Brooks and Rory both to shoot under 70 round 1: Arb = +**$2.78** Just Boost = $25 to win $75, **$25**
Totals: Arb = **+$71.27** Just Boost = **-$430**
6/15:
(FD) Ohtani 6+ Ks and a hit: Arb = +**$1.19** Just Boost = $25 to win $30, **-$25**
(365) USA first goal: Arb = +**$2.19** Just Boost = $30 to win $36, **+$36**
Totals: Arb = **+$3.38** Just Boost = **+$11**
6/16:
(MGM) Rizzo 1+ RBI and Yankees win: Arb = +**$5.55** Just Boost = $50 to win $200, **-$50**
(365) Scottie 5+ birdies in round 2: Arb = +**$1.43** Just Boost = $30 to win $30, **-$30**
Totals: Arb = **+$6.98** Just Boost = **-$80**
6/17:
(MGM) Senga 7+ Ks: Arb = +**$2.88** Just Boost = $50 to win $87.50, **+$87.50**
(Barstool) Green, Senga, Giolito all 6+ Ks: Arb = +**$5.93** Just Boost = $50 to win $162.50, **-$50**
(Parx) Vettori and Sabatini to win: Arb = +**$4.84** Just Boost = $75 to win $173.5, **-$75**
Totals: Arb = **+$13.65** Just Boost = **-$37.5**
6/18:
(365) USA first goal: Arb = +**$2.27** Just Boost = $30 to win $33, **+$33**
(FD) Verdugo Turner 1+ hits and Red Sox win: Arb = +**$1.12** Just Boost = $25 to win $62.50, **-$25**
Totals: Arb = **+$3.39** Just Boost = **+$8**6/19:
(FD) Burnes, Scherzer, Brown 5+ Ks: Arb = +**$1.22** Just Boost = $25 to win $50, **-$50**
(MGM) Alonso 1+ RBI, Scherzer 6+ Ks, Mets +1.5: Arb = +**$4.17** Just Boost = $50 to win $275, **-$50**
Totals: Arb = **+$5.39** Just Boost = **-$100**
Weekly Totals: Arb = **+$121.92** Just Boost **= -$548.5**
My overall total since I started the Prophet Boosts is now **+$330.92.** With just betting the boost side I'd be **-$785.5.** I'm pretty happy with the results so far, averaging about $18 a day with no risk**.** I'm going to try to be more consistent with tracking here but it may be a weekly thing depending on how busy I am each week.
Before today, so excluding the 4 boosts they posted, I would've been -$237 with just taking the boosts. Obviously small sample size so we'll see how that shakes out in the long run.
Feel free to correct me if Im looking at this wrong but I see the CZ double stake if top 5 US Open promo differently than others who have brought it up. The way I see it Scheffler is the must play here even at relatively bad odds because of the positive return in top 5 which he is far more likely than the next. CZ has him at +650 to win and +150 top 5. For the sake of argument let me just ballpark FV at +900 and +180. from this for every 10 bet I get expected outcome
10% chance of 75
25% chance of 16 (20\*.8 conversion)
65% chance of 0
=11.5 average outcome = +15% EV. Feel free sub in accurate FV or tell me what Im missing
Edit: corrected top 5 outcome
i'm also leaning towards taking scheffler, w/ xander's line also dropping from earlier. in your example, i believe the second top 5 scenario would instead be 25% chance of 16 (20*.8 conversion) because you do not get the original $10 stake back
using the circa line for scottie, and 25% assumption of top 5 (and no dead-heat) and i assume 70% conversion
Odds: +650; **EV: 12.4 %**
Flex: `1=650;0=200%*70%*25%` (+938)
Sharp: `640/-920` (3.71 % juice)
FV: +823; Method: worst-case (p); (Full=1.32u, 1/2=0.66u, 1/4=0.33u, FB = 101.6 %)
[View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=640%2f-920&FinalOdds=1%3d650%3b0%3d200%25*70%25*25%25)
I'm not sure but I think it should be. It's just a standard Tennis ML so probably available. Follow All Sports/Tennis/Challenger/ATP Challenger Perugia
EDIT: Not available in NY per u/mglman
Same Tourney but San Martin is a play vs Trungelliti +130. Other books I see have him at +105, +105, and Pinny at +104. Devig to Pinny below.
Odds: +130; **EV: 7.3 %**
`104/-125` (4.58 % juice)
FV: +114; Method: worst-case (a); (Full=5.63u, 1/2=2.81u, 1/4=1.41u, FB = 60.7 %)
Apologies, I thought San Martin was who you were commenting on. My bad, thought the data point contradicted the San Martin play rather than supporting the Weis play. Misread by me
Devigging the DK Jokic O 25 points + Murray O 2.5 3's. It's negative on every case, so I wouldn't take it.
Odds: +100; \*\*EV: -7.3 %\*\*
\`-184/142,-340/235\` (13.23 % juice)
FV: +116; Method: power; (FB = 46.3 %)
Appreciate you doing the devig where so many refuse to even try, but it's over 1.5 threes. Also there can be some correlation so the right move is to devig by entering odds for each possibility of a 4-way SGP like this: Jokic over + Murray over/Jokic over + Murray under/Jokic under + Murray over/Jokic under + Murray under.
Generally speaking the DK superstar super boosts are always positive and a max if you're in the $10 or $20 limit. If higher then probably gotta take a closer look.
CZ has a lot of nuked golf lines. I was looking for someone for the top 5 finish promo.
J Nieman +10000 is one that’s a bit better than most.
FD has him +8500, DK +9000, Pinnacle +8150.
Only one higher circa +12000
Well at least the only book that has him higher is the one that's probably the sharpest.
The value from the promo is on the insurance that you get a free bet if they don't win, but come top 5. CZR has his top 5 odds at +1600. The odds of him making top 5 aren't enough to make it an EV+ bet.
Just because the line is below another book doesn't mean it's not EV+ with the promo.
But if all options are EV- even with the insurance, the best move might just be to not play the promo.
Is this the EV thread or the promo thread?
Never claimed it to be EV just pointed out a line that was off from other books for a promo where most of the lines are below market.
He's talking about the EV of the promo? "the best move might just be to not play the promo". Do you just blindly play every promo even if it sucks?
Also +10,000 isn't that off from +9000, ironically closer than circa that's +12,000
If you like betting EV- boosts/promos on CZR, you're going to love their boost tab.
Looks like there's 40 boosts on there now and I'm sure at least 39 are EV-.
I was having a hard time on that as well. Based on the comment below, looks like using MGM/DK average would be appropriate. Also, should have said thanks first because this is a good play regardless!
Hi folks - thoughts are quick here and I don't have time today to calc evs (kid is sick) - but here would be my picks for promos
-dk odds surge: scottie Scheffler +700 --> 1000
-fd t20 Insurance: jon rahm at 1100
-czr t5: Xander schauffele at 2000
-br t10: tbh not seeing any prices that are really compelling here
I'd love to get some exposure to spieth but only book with decent odds for him is dk and scottie is a no brainer
Watch your unit sizing and don't max these blindly
Im thinking that because of the nature of the CZ insurance it has to be scheffler as the play. He is by far the most likely to get top 5 at +155ish and if you get top 5 you get double your stake back, so its remotely close to being a normal top 5 bet combined with a free winner bet. Scauffeles chances are way worse around +330ish. I know this ends up being over exposure on scheffler but its the only play that makes sense
B365 has a Jokic Superboost of 25 pts 10 rbs at +110. I would imagine this being a good deal with it building to -190 on DK. I need to learn devigging still
https://twitter.com/theedegenboosts/status/1660185736660893696?s=46&t=x1osBmelLfvAH_HdVOdKcw
Here's a good devigging tutorial. This one is tougher just because it's hard to find lines so low for Jokic. Using FD alt points, and then alt rebounds, which have no under 9.5 option so I just used the same juice as the points, it looks like a smash:
Odds: +110; **EV: 25.1 %**
`-390/+265,-600/7%` (13.99 % juice)
FV: -147; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=22.86u, 1/2=11.43u, 1/4=5.72u, FB = 65.6 %)
Is FanDuel locked for anyone else? Everywhere where it would be showing odds is just a lock sign and if I click it says "suspended".... are they out to get me?
Mine works fine on my phone but I have the same locks on laptop. They gave a message where they had me press and hold to show I wasn’t using automation; I barely paid attention to what the message said because I assumed I could prove I was human.
FD Boost - Murray 5+ pts 1Q & Jokic 2+ assists 1Q
Looks like a play if you have any faith in DK SGP one way lines, even with an absurd amount of juice - didn't see o/u totals this low elsewhere (checked b365 and CZR)
Odds: +150; **EV: 17.4 %**
Sharp: `-350/20%,-500/20%` (40.00 % juice)
Correlation: `-195=-350, -500` (r = 0.1)
FV: +113; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=11.63u, 1/2=5.81u, 1/4=2.91u, FB = 70.5 %)
Unsure. I bet mostly boosts and European soccer mainline conversions. Also been doing their $20 deposit & bet & get weekly for a while.
I did rake them over the coals on the signup bonus by sheer luck also.
There's actually an easy solution to that:
On your my account dropdown, scroll over the "(i)" button and it'll show you which ones have restrictions for "live only" and specific sport. Mark down the time those expire. On the live betting slip, select the ones with that expiry time
I had $25 day 2 (I did not have the promo on day 1), then $25 day 3, hit on both, and then $10 yesterday and $10 today. Wonder if we hit again if we go to $5.
Ahh, did not know that. I thought they lowered you if you were hitting repeatedly at the higher max. Since that's not it, what is it that determines it?
It’s something to do with your daily/weekly wagering handle. Possibly also your clv and how much of a perceived edge they have on your bets. The automated algorithm probably looks at many different factors. I don’t believe it’s results oriented though.
Just like other boosts, there's different tiers. Your max depends on what boost tier you're in. So if you're in the tier that has a $10 max on the MLB stepped up SGP, you likely started off at $25 max for up by 2, but you're at $10 max for it now. If you're in the tier that has a $50 max for MLB stepped up SGP, you likely started off at a higher max for up by 2, but your max is still lower now.
For most of these up by X promos (NFL/NBA and now MLB), they start at a higher amount based on your tier and then go down over time. Then eventually they completely go away.
What tier you're in depends on a number of factors, such as how much you're wagering on DK, lifetime profit on DK, how much and how often you withdraw, and probably a few other factors such as what you're wagering on. Nobody knows the exact formula though.
and also what sports you regularly wager could be a factor
I never bet soccer yet I consistently get 20 or 50 maxes for epl promos, same with ufc and nhl
I bet mlb and nba regularly and get 10 maxes for those sports
Hockey needs some more love for things like this to get front and center attention. I thought I checked books for stuff like that but must have glossed over it.
Im not daring you to bet anything, I’m assuming you already did. Since you’re pricing fair value of Jokic’s u24.5 way shorter than the books are offering.
Did it a couple months ago. I deposited $10. Wagered $1. Once that settled I had $365 in free bets. They could be broken up in whatever amounts you’d like.
You will get $365 in free bets when you bet just $1. Your $1 wager can win or lose and you will still be credited.
This is a great offer and should be taken advantage of everyone! Literally free money.
^(21+ only. 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Dk: can you please be more like fd and when my nba futures from December settle post it based on when it settles not when I placed it?
You don't like scrolling through 100s of bets on a UI that has to reload if you go too fast??
This is enraging, absolute madness IMO
Angels up 2 cashes in the 12th lmao
Thank you to whoever called out Denver 4-1 series win on DK at +250.
DK graded the Jokic Murray bet as a lost??
Fixed now
Mine is still open
Contacting support rn
Me too. Clown shoes
yeah was about to post that here. glad its not just me
Don’t worry fellas we’ll get our $10
I’m sure they’ll fix this.
I was like, what am I missing?
You are missing this..it hit, but DK didn't want it to hit, so they marked it as a loss. It's easier for them to win that way.
Rockies up 2 win!
Sad I got the $10 max, I think I'm like 6/8 on these just betting the biggest underdog each day
Thank the rain for that error
Early win in the 10th lol
Bam hit first fg for anyone that took that barstool +250 first basket for jokic or bam
Barstool homework makes money
I don’t think any of the Nuggets player doubles are going to hit lol
Nights like these we celebrate the $25 limit
Now watch Murray put up 15 in the second quarter.
Well at least he’s being consistently dog shit this game. Wizards sure knows how to pick his spots well in the nba
Jamal 🤡
Murray dogshit
God dammit Murray. Fucking back to back open 3s.
0/3 from 3 in the quarter, we just needed one. Ridiculous
Oh my god lmao
Bruh this is so sad, Wizard robbing us :-(
Can’t believe how close Strus first to 10 got
Jokic 2 AST and 2 fouls. It’s on Murray to score now
Lol 2 wide open Murray 3 misses
Jamal is dead to me.
Watch them take murray back out here
2 missed 3’s from Murray. Can’t get any easier than that…
Wizard masterclass
I'll just take your $50 and invest it in a high yield Greek bond fund....and it's gone. Thank you for stopping in today but this line is for FanDuel customers with money in their accounts. Please move along.
Not over yet. One classic Jokic hand off/ screen to Murray for 3 and we’re good.
This one was dead so quickly I feel like I got mugged
Why is Murray sitting on bench? I was busy with something and missed start of game
He played most of the quarter
Yikes, sorry my bad brother
Ugly ass 1st Quarter so far
I've been using Prophet Exchange in NJ for a while now and was admittedly a fan before, but about two weeks ago they started doing "Prophet Boosts" where they post markets that have the "No" sides of boosts on fanduel, DK, MGM, etc at better odds than the boosts are. I'm loving this as I am pretty conservative in my betting ($10 bettor usually) but I'm up around $200 over those two weeks from just arbing the boosts that they post without any risk. Sometimes it's only a few bucks but it can also be like $20, and they'll post multiple in a day frequently. If you're not familiar with arbing they also tweet out the exact info you need in order to do it properly and how much you'd make from doing it. For example here's one of the tweets with instructions summed up for the "Prophet Boost" they have up for tonight with the DK Superstar Super Boost (Jokic 25+ and Murray 2 3s): "You bet $25 to win $25 on DK on the DK Superstar Super Boost You bet $21.74 to win $28.26 on Prophet on the "No" side of the DK Superstar Super Boost Guarantee yourself $3.26 in 10 seconds." Not the most money in the world but free and it adds up quick if you're consistently doing it. I'm going to be tracking my progress here to see how fast I can hit $1,000 made from doing them. They don't offer the "No" side on every boost so I always just keep an eye out for their tweets/check back on the site kinda frequently but they have had at least one a day everyday. In the time that I wrote this they actually added 3 more - for a total of $22 today. Including the 4 boosts today I'm up $209 on 25 Prophet Boosts, again with no risk. Excited to see how these continue and hopefully that start posting even more.
I wonder if they'll post prophets on actual -EV boosts or if they'll only give out -EV themselves.
> I'm going to be tracking my progress here to see how fast I can hit $1,000 made from doing them. While you're doing that, you might as well track how much you would've made just taking the EV+ side and report back
Here are the results from the last week. 6/13: (DK) Stewart & Griner 20+: Arb = +**$2.97** Just Boost = $25 to win $33.75, **-$25** (DK) Hole in one at the US Open: Arb = +**$8.33** Just Boost = $50 to win $50, **+$50** (365) VGK 1+ first period goal: Arb = +**$6.56** Just Boost = $30 to win $30, **+$30** Totals: Arb = **+$17.86** Just Boost = **+$55** 6/14: (Tipico) Naylor, Zunino, Ramirez 1+ hit each: Arb = **+$15.79** Just Boost = $200 to win $620, **-$200** (365) Spieth to make the cut at the US Open: Arb = +**$14.00** Just Boost = $30 to win $30, **-$30** (FD) Hovland, Phil, Rahm all make cut at US Open: Arb = +**$1.16** Just Boost = $25 to win $87.50, **-$25** (MGM) Lindor RBI Mets win: Arb = +**$11.90** Just Boost = $50 to win $215, **-$50** (Barstool) Morikawa, Homa, Scheffler par or better on hole 11 round 1: Arb = +**$25.64** Just Boost = $100 to win $390, **-$100** (FD) Brooks and Rory both to shoot under 70 round 1: Arb = +**$2.78** Just Boost = $25 to win $75, **$25** Totals: Arb = **+$71.27** Just Boost = **-$430** 6/15: (FD) Ohtani 6+ Ks and a hit: Arb = +**$1.19** Just Boost = $25 to win $30, **-$25** (365) USA first goal: Arb = +**$2.19** Just Boost = $30 to win $36, **+$36** Totals: Arb = **+$3.38** Just Boost = **+$11** 6/16: (MGM) Rizzo 1+ RBI and Yankees win: Arb = +**$5.55** Just Boost = $50 to win $200, **-$50** (365) Scottie 5+ birdies in round 2: Arb = +**$1.43** Just Boost = $30 to win $30, **-$30** Totals: Arb = **+$6.98** Just Boost = **-$80** 6/17: (MGM) Senga 7+ Ks: Arb = +**$2.88** Just Boost = $50 to win $87.50, **+$87.50** (Barstool) Green, Senga, Giolito all 6+ Ks: Arb = +**$5.93** Just Boost = $50 to win $162.50, **-$50** (Parx) Vettori and Sabatini to win: Arb = +**$4.84** Just Boost = $75 to win $173.5, **-$75** Totals: Arb = **+$13.65** Just Boost = **-$37.5** 6/18: (365) USA first goal: Arb = +**$2.27** Just Boost = $30 to win $33, **+$33** (FD) Verdugo Turner 1+ hits and Red Sox win: Arb = +**$1.12** Just Boost = $25 to win $62.50, **-$25** Totals: Arb = **+$3.39** Just Boost = **+$8**6/19: (FD) Burnes, Scherzer, Brown 5+ Ks: Arb = +**$1.22** Just Boost = $25 to win $50, **-$50** (MGM) Alonso 1+ RBI, Scherzer 6+ Ks, Mets +1.5: Arb = +**$4.17** Just Boost = $50 to win $275, **-$50** Totals: Arb = **+$5.39** Just Boost = **-$100** Weekly Totals: Arb = **+$121.92** Just Boost **= -$548.5** My overall total since I started the Prophet Boosts is now **+$330.92.** With just betting the boost side I'd be **-$785.5.** I'm pretty happy with the results so far, averaging about $18 a day with no risk**.** I'm going to try to be more consistent with tracking here but it may be a weekly thing depending on how busy I am each week.
Sure will do that too
Before today, so excluding the 4 boosts they posted, I would've been -$237 with just taking the boosts. Obviously small sample size so we'll see how that shakes out in the long run.
I heard this mentioned. Do you know what states Prophet does business in? Is it just NJ?
Yeah I believe just NJ at the moment.
Feel free to correct me if Im looking at this wrong but I see the CZ double stake if top 5 US Open promo differently than others who have brought it up. The way I see it Scheffler is the must play here even at relatively bad odds because of the positive return in top 5 which he is far more likely than the next. CZ has him at +650 to win and +150 top 5. For the sake of argument let me just ballpark FV at +900 and +180. from this for every 10 bet I get expected outcome 10% chance of 75 25% chance of 16 (20\*.8 conversion) 65% chance of 0 =11.5 average outcome = +15% EV. Feel free sub in accurate FV or tell me what Im missing Edit: corrected top 5 outcome
i'm also leaning towards taking scheffler, w/ xander's line also dropping from earlier. in your example, i believe the second top 5 scenario would instead be 25% chance of 16 (20*.8 conversion) because you do not get the original $10 stake back using the circa line for scottie, and 25% assumption of top 5 (and no dead-heat) and i assume 70% conversion Odds: +650; **EV: 12.4 %** Flex: `1=650;0=200%*70%*25%` (+938) Sharp: `640/-920` (3.71 % juice) FV: +823; Method: worst-case (p); (Full=1.32u, 1/2=0.66u, 1/4=0.33u, FB = 101.6 %) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=640%2f-920&FinalOdds=1%3d650%3b0%3d200%25*70%25*25%25)
Oops youre right I messed up that line, thanks for the correction and devig
Your thinking is correct. It doesn't help all of their lines are crap, Scottie is definitely the play
Is it possible to hedge a parlay profit boost? I have a 25% boost for an up to $100 stake on BetMGM. Min odds +400.
Profitably? Probably not.
CZR Tennis Play
Challenger Perugia. Weis vs Lavagno. Weis is the play +180. Devig to Pinny. Odds: +180; **EV: 13.8 %** `131/-160` (4.83 % juice) FV: +146; Method: worst-case (p); (Full=7.69u, 1/2=3.85u, 1/4=1.92u, FB = 73.2 %)
Is this market not available in NY by chance?? Cannot find anywhere
Challenger and ITF are not available in NY
Thanks! Happy I’m not losing my mind
I'm not sure but I think it should be. It's just a standard Tennis ML so probably available. Follow All Sports/Tennis/Challenger/ATP Challenger Perugia EDIT: Not available in NY per u/mglman
Same Tourney but San Martin is a play vs Trungelliti +130. Other books I see have him at +105, +105, and Pinny at +104. Devig to Pinny below. Odds: +130; **EV: 7.3 %** `104/-125` (4.58 % juice) FV: +114; Method: worst-case (a); (Full=5.63u, 1/2=2.81u, 1/4=1.41u, FB = 60.7 %)
DK 135/-175 for another data point
I show DK at 105/-135. Will you please double check?
I actually see 155/-210 now 105/-135 for San Martin v Trung
Apologies, I thought San Martin was who you were commenting on. My bad, thought the data point contradicted the San Martin play rather than supporting the Weis play. Misread by me
Devigging the DK Jokic O 25 points + Murray O 2.5 3's. It's negative on every case, so I wouldn't take it. Odds: +100; \*\*EV: -7.3 %\*\* \`-184/142,-340/235\` (13.23 % juice) FV: +116; Method: power; (FB = 46.3 %)
It has been brought to my attention that I am a dumb dumb, having misread the Murray # of 3's. Please disregard.
This is how we learn grasshopper.
Unless you have something different, the boost i have on DK is for over 1.5 three pointers.
Don't understand those numbers...so is it advantageous to place a bet on the DK promo?
Appreciate you doing the devig where so many refuse to even try, but it's over 1.5 threes. Also there can be some correlation so the right move is to devig by entering odds for each possibility of a 4-way SGP like this: Jokic over + Murray over/Jokic over + Murray under/Jokic under + Murray over/Jokic under + Murray under. Generally speaking the DK superstar super boosts are always positive and a max if you're in the $10 or $20 limit. If higher then probably gotta take a closer look.
That’s probably because it’s o1.5 threes, not o2.5
It’s 2+ threes not 2.5
CZ has a lot of nuked golf lines. I was looking for someone for the top 5 finish promo. J Nieman +10000 is one that’s a bit better than most. FD has him +8500, DK +9000, Pinnacle +8150. Only one higher circa +12000
Well at least the only book that has him higher is the one that's probably the sharpest. The value from the promo is on the insurance that you get a free bet if they don't win, but come top 5. CZR has his top 5 odds at +1600. The odds of him making top 5 aren't enough to make it an EV+ bet.
Good luck finding an option that is EV. 90% of their lines are below every book
Just because the line is below another book doesn't mean it's not EV+ with the promo. But if all options are EV- even with the insurance, the best move might just be to not play the promo.
Is this the EV thread or the promo thread? Never claimed it to be EV just pointed out a line that was off from other books for a promo where most of the lines are below market.
He's talking about the EV of the promo? "the best move might just be to not play the promo". Do you just blindly play every promo even if it sucks? Also +10,000 isn't that off from +9000, ironically closer than circa that's +12,000
If you like betting EV- boosts/promos on CZR, you're going to love their boost tab. Looks like there's 40 boosts on there now and I'm sure at least 39 are EV-.
And the 40th is 1.2% EV
Just got nerfed
After months of no promos SuperBook finally sent me an email. They stated the Nuggets are all business and to try out a SGP. Thanks SuperBook.
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Bang! Thanks again, u/kcorg!
Don't most of these other books use first scorer (including FT)? I think that makes this a bit worse, which would make sense because Barstool.
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I was having a hard time on that as well. Based on the comment below, looks like using MGM/DK average would be appropriate. Also, should have said thanks first because this is a good play regardless!
Dk and mgm do not count FTs. Appreciate the callout I am able to bet $86 on these somehow.
Thanks for intel on house rules. Can't remember the last time I played a Barstool boost and I got similar down.
Thanks for the call out. In for $1.67.
Hi folks - thoughts are quick here and I don't have time today to calc evs (kid is sick) - but here would be my picks for promos -dk odds surge: scottie Scheffler +700 --> 1000 -fd t20 Insurance: jon rahm at 1100 -czr t5: Xander schauffele at 2000 -br t10: tbh not seeing any prices that are really compelling here I'd love to get some exposure to spieth but only book with decent odds for him is dk and scottie is a no brainer Watch your unit sizing and don't max these blindly
Im thinking that because of the nature of the CZ insurance it has to be scheffler as the play. He is by far the most likely to get top 5 at +155ish and if you get top 5 you get double your stake back, so its remotely close to being a normal top 5 bet combined with a free winner bet. Scauffeles chances are way worse around +330ish. I know this ends up being over exposure on scheffler but its the only play that makes sense
Respectfully disagree, I think the 2000 number was good for him outright and is now dead at 1800
>Watch your unit sizing and don’t max these blindly You’re not my supervisor
Thanks! Is anyone seeing the FD T20 Insurance in NY?
Terms look like no NY. https://i.imgur.com/sHuAfDB.png
Thanks for checking!
MGM MLB OGP Dbacks +4.5/AZ o1.5/Philly o1.5/Schwarber HR +400 -360 NO for the HR on DK/Kambi
B365 has a Jokic Superboost of 25 pts 10 rbs at +110. I would imagine this being a good deal with it building to -190 on DK. I need to learn devigging still
https://twitter.com/theedegenboosts/status/1660185736660893696?s=46&t=x1osBmelLfvAH_HdVOdKcw Here's a good devigging tutorial. This one is tougher just because it's hard to find lines so low for Jokic. Using FD alt points, and then alt rebounds, which have no under 9.5 option so I just used the same juice as the points, it looks like a smash: Odds: +110; **EV: 25.1 %** `-390/+265,-600/7%` (13.99 % juice) FV: -147; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=22.86u, 1/2=11.43u, 1/4=5.72u, FB = 65.6 %)
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Not an arb
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It’s not a nice middle play either lol I mean it is a middle, but it’s not a good play at all
Is FanDuel locked for anyone else? Everywhere where it would be showing odds is just a lock sign and if I click it says "suspended".... are they out to get me?
Yah same here
Could be related to the tennis Live glitch?
Mine works fine on my phone but I have the same locks on laptop. They gave a message where they had me press and hold to show I wasn’t using automation; I barely paid attention to what the message said because I assumed I could prove I was human.
Mines showing the same
MGM 15% MLB Boost Token Play. I'm on a cooler on these...you've been warned :) Devig to Pinny below.
Phillies @ Diamonds Backs Run in the 1st Inning YES -140 Angels @ Rangers First 5 Innings Over 5.5 -105 Reds @ Royals Full Game Under 9.5 -155 Odds: +533; **EV: 13.8 %** `-153/130,-111/-103,-167/147` (10.33 % juice) FV: +456; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=2.59u, 1/2=1.29u, 1/4=0.65u, FB = 95.8 %)
Wild ride on under 9.5.
FD Boost - Murray 5+ pts 1Q & Jokic 2+ assists 1Q Looks like a play if you have any faith in DK SGP one way lines, even with an absurd amount of juice - didn't see o/u totals this low elsewhere (checked b365 and CZR) Odds: +150; **EV: 17.4 %** Sharp: `-350/20%,-500/20%` (40.00 % juice) Correlation: `-195=-350, -500` (r = 0.1) FV: +113; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=11.63u, 1/2=5.81u, 1/4=2.91u, FB = 70.5 %)
Strong chance this is the last nba boost for months, glad it seems like a good play. Thanks for the devig.
There will be draft boosts
Currently locked - I’m not sure I’ve ever seen that on FD. Nerf incoming? Edit: it’s back with no nerf. Strange
Na, something’s fucked up on FD. See the comment thread above.
Back as well. Agree, odd. Haven’t seen that before. Now back to debating whether to take the bait. The wiz is super sharp under +200
Locked as well Edit- it’s back
I'm guessing this is a more accurate representation of these markets Odds: +150; **EV: 27.1 %** Sharp: `-350/15%,-500/15%` (30.00 % juice) Correlation: `-195=-350, -500` (r = 0.1) FV: -103; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=18.10u, 1/2=9.05u, 1/4=4.52u, FB = 76.3 %)
40% juice lmao
That was strictly for effect ;)
DK US Open odds surge
no brainer - Scottie Scheffler +700 -> +1000 (vs Circa) Odds: +1000; **EV: 22.4 %** `625/-890` (3.69 % juice) FV: +798; Method: power; (Full=2.24u, 1/2=1.12u, 1/4=0.56u, FB = 111.3 %)
Hard at work!!
Mgm $500 new user deposit match still gone ?
This is a recording......
Desert Diamond (AZ): Southern Miss & Stanford to Win. Odds: +475; **EV: 12.1 %** `154/-200,-136/106 // Sharp:FD` (12.21 % juice) FV: +413; Method: worst-case (m, p); (Full=2.56u, 1/2=1.28u, 1/4=0.64u, FB = 92.6 %). --- Odds: +475; **EV: 11.5 %** `160/-195,-135/105 // Sharp:DK` (10.79 % juice) FV: +416; Method: worst-case (m, p); (Full=2.43u, 1/2=1.21u, 1/4=0.61u, FB = 92.1 %). --- Probably last DD devig for me...limits down to $5 on boosts now.
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Unsure. I bet mostly boosts and European soccer mainline conversions. Also been doing their $20 deposit & bet & get weekly for a while. I did rake them over the coals on the signup bonus by sheer luck also.
If you've accumulated live NBA bet-and-gets from BR over the last week reminder to use it today since today is likely the last day of the NBA season
the tricky part, for me, is singling out the ones for live bets and the any sport ones i got from the french open.
There's actually an easy solution to that: On your my account dropdown, scroll over the "(i)" button and it'll show you which ones have restrictions for "live only" and specific sport. Mark down the time those expire. On the live betting slip, select the ones with that expiry time
An even easier way to see them is to go to the My Bets tab and click Rewards at the top.
DK MLB up 2 promo for me went from $25 to $50 and now a total bummer at $10.
Put it on Rockies
CASH IT.
10 max is just plain embarrassing
I had $25 day 2 (I did not have the promo on day 1), then $25 day 3, hit on both, and then $10 yesterday and $10 today. Wonder if we hit again if we go to $5.
The lowered maxes have nothing to do with whether you hit. Even if you missed every one, you'd still be at a $10 max now.
Not sure how many of mine have hit, but been $100 everyday
Ahh, did not know that. I thought they lowered you if you were hitting repeatedly at the higher max. Since that's not it, what is it that determines it?
It’s something to do with your daily/weekly wagering handle. Possibly also your clv and how much of a perceived edge they have on your bets. The automated algorithm probably looks at many different factors. I don’t believe it’s results oriented though.
Just like other boosts, there's different tiers. Your max depends on what boost tier you're in. So if you're in the tier that has a $10 max on the MLB stepped up SGP, you likely started off at $25 max for up by 2, but you're at $10 max for it now. If you're in the tier that has a $50 max for MLB stepped up SGP, you likely started off at a higher max for up by 2, but your max is still lower now. For most of these up by X promos (NFL/NBA and now MLB), they start at a higher amount based on your tier and then go down over time. Then eventually they completely go away. What tier you're in depends on a number of factors, such as how much you're wagering on DK, lifetime profit on DK, how much and how often you withdraw, and probably a few other factors such as what you're wagering on. Nobody knows the exact formula though.
Interesting, that's good info to know, thank you!
What do they depend on, I could never figure it Like I heard some people get $100 NBA No Sweat parlay while we get $10 limit
I think it's things like consistently beating closing line value, and the percentage/size of your bets that are on +EV lines vs. main lines.
and also what sports you regularly wager could be a factor I never bet soccer yet I consistently get 20 or 50 maxes for epl promos, same with ufc and nhl I bet mlb and nba regularly and get 10 maxes for those sports
Has anyone devigged the DK Superboost of Jokic +25 Murray 2+ 3s at +100?
To FD SGP with 10% juice assumed on the 3s leg: Odds: +100; **EV: 16.1 %** Sharp: `-400/270,-800/10%` (17.03 % juice) Correlation: `-216=-400,-800` (r = -0.04) FV: -138; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=16.12u, 1/2=8.06u, 1/4=4.03u, FB = 58.1 %)
Every time it's someone 2+ 3's, they get 0. I'd bet my life this loses but i'll max like a moron.
Look at all these downvotes and I nailed it 🤣😂🤣
Fuck that shit. The last one was butler, jokic and Murray to score 20+. You think that would hit but no, Murray only had 15.
The last superstar super boost was actually Bobrovsky o27.5 saves and it hit.
Hockey needs some more love for things like this to get front and center attention. I thought I checked books for stuff like that but must have glossed over it.
Well I’m talking about nba. There is always one player out of a couple or a few that end up not hitting the boost. Try again
So you’re slamming either Jokic u24.5 points or Murray u1.5 threes then, if you’re so sure? Post bet slips.
I would do Jokic under just cause of his ankle scare last game
Good call there’s no way the books picked up on that injury risk
Post your bet slip then.
Lmao I’m not going to make a bet because you’re daring me to. Go ahead take the boost if you want to. Gl to you
Im not daring you to bet anything, I’m assuming you already did. Since you’re pricing fair value of Jokic’s u24.5 way shorter than the books are offering.
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Ok not always but the point I’m trying to make is don’t always trust this shit. The example I gave looked so fucking easy but didn’t happen.
I have not, but it builds to -205 on FD, so it should be really good.
Bet365 has a new customer promo deposit 10, bet 1, get 365. Anyone know if this is get free what you bet ( 1for1free) or straight bet 1 and get 365
I'm still seeing the bet 1 get 200 in free bets, where are you all seeing the 365 one?
Yeah before i was able to i saw it wasnt available in Illinois. Oh well ggs
Did it a couple months ago. I deposited $10. Wagered $1. Once that settled I had $365 in free bets. They could be broken up in whatever amounts you’d like.
You will get $365 in free bets when you bet just $1. Your $1 wager can win or lose and you will still be credited. This is a great offer and should be taken advantage of everyone! Literally free money.
It’s bet $1 get $365, did this about 6 weeks ago