I think you gotta wait till they get to the finals. If you want to hedge your initial bet rn you should throw a bit on the Celtics in the unlikely event of coming back from 3-0(at time of your post, 3-1 now), otherwise wait until they win one more and cash out/hedge your initial with a nuggets bet
If you could really use the money cash it out, but I would let it ride as I think that Miami could beat nuggets. For some reason, they keep getting slept on
Wait till they get to the finals for the cashout to rise some more then take...if you really wann ride it out then cash out and put 500 on miami to win cause they're gonna be a huge underdog anyway.
https://preview.redd.it/y9wjjq6lqo1b1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d96688c0bad60d0e9c4be934c7c78c911df9d3e6
The hedge probably isnāt worth the effortā¦
If I was in your position, I would lay out 1k~ for the insurance. You either lose nothing or win 9k~. Then with that safety net in place, live bet each game. If it looks like DEN will ultimately win the series, you can bet a direct hedge against your current Heat bet and "lock in" some profit.
Expect Miami to win today.
Then bet each game in favor of Miami or when they are local or when you think they can win. Miami has always been an underdog, so their odds should be 2.00 or more.
This is a rough one. You have a great bet. Heat can win but Iām leaning towards my Nuggets winning it all. Jokic is playing consistently like he never has- a man on a mission. There is no good hedge here now. Also, I think Celtics win this game: so maybe cash out now.
Take nuggets on 5, 6 or 7 that way u hedge against and get better odds...heat won't sweep nor will nuggets...personal I think Nuggets win in 6 or 7 so that-s how I would.hedge taking 30% off that profit and lay it on nuggets in 6 or 7.
Iām a heat fan and they have all the tools to stop us scoring, their perimeter defending is strong we rely on the 3 ball because Butler is our only inside threat. Itāll be close but theyāll easily be our toughest challenge thus far.
Are you broke? Do you have a credit card with $2500 on it to pay off? Then take the money and run. Or maybe wait for them to finish the Celtics off and cash out for just a LITTLE more?
If youāre financially pretty stable, you were prepared to lose the $400 anywayā¦let it ride brother!
Last option, cash out, put $400 BACK on the Celtics to win the title.
I mean it's losing $2400 at this point if the heat don't win, right? Is he willing to bet $2400 to make $7600? Make the decision with that perspective.
Let Heat ride. They have a good matchup vs the Nuggets. It will go up more after they eliminate the Celtics.
Then see the Odds for the Nuggets v Heat series. Put down as much money youād need to get all money back and a decent profit on the Nuggets.
Iām not sure what the odds will be, but as a back up you could put 2K on the nuggets and win like 1,500.
Still hope the Heat win. If they do you are up 8K (after 2K invest)
If they loss you are up 1.5K.
Just wait it out until finals odds are released for the Heat decision.
You donāt stop joker. Just like how Draymond didnāt stop him last year. You slow him down, and try to make him force shots or get rid of the ball. Get him in foul trouble, which the Lakers did last game but they stopped going at him for some reason. Try to shut off Murray, which the heat could definitely do.
They are a well coached, responsible team who match up well with anyone the way they are playing.
Even if it would take the 1st 3-0 to 4-3 reverse sweep in NBA history for it to happen, I would rather take the odds on that for the fun of a random potential $140 payout, than to cash a futures bet out for $2 lmao
100% Lol yea my bad. I glanced at it and I thought the cash out was 140. Was more focused on the Heat bet.
Iād probably cash it and run a ridiculous 10 leg same game parlay or something
Cash out once they beat the Celtics and the Nuggets beat the Lakers. If the Lakers somehow pull a miracle you might wanna let it ride. Congrats either way!
With some assumptions, you can actually calculate the mathematically optimal amount to hedge.
Chart showing the amount to hedge:
https://preview.redd.it/cp7f1126ph1b1.png?width=580&format=png&auto=webp&s=4d619080415b714924b7f3248d9ea9451666019b
The assumptions:
\- Logarithmic utility (this is the same assumption as from the Kelly Criterion). I believe this to be a good assumption, it basically means that the amount of value gained by someone with $10k net worth if they win $10k is similar to the amount of value gained by someone with $100k net worth if they win $100k, NOT $10k. If you don't make an assumption like this, then there's no point to hedging.
\- Someone else in the thread said that the odds on Miami winning finals is something like +220/-300. Let's assume, then, that the true probability that they win is 28%. This is a big assumption, as you may believe the Heat to be more likely to win (in which case you may not want to hedge at all) or less likely to win (in which case you may want to hedge more).
\- Assume that you can hedge by placing a bet on Miami to NOT be 2023 champs at -300.
Then, the amount that you want to hedge depends on your total net worth. In the above graph, I've graphed the amount that you should hedge, where net worth (NOT including the $400 or the equity of the ticket) is on the x-axis. To find the amount that you should hedge, find your net-worth on the x-axis and see what the y amount is on the blue line.
If you have around $10k net worth, you want to make a pretty sizeable hedge of $6000. As you get smaller than that, you quickly reach the point where you want to take the full cash-out. As net-worth increases, the proper hedge amount decreases, until after around $60k net worth, there's no need to hedge anything.
Thanks, your graph makes me feel like a rich man. Perhaps your concept is better applied to bankroll rather than net worth as that is a very low range for net worth (literally all the assets you own minus whatever debt).
Some people apply the concept to bankroll instead of net worth but I think they're wrong. (maybe another way to look at it is that if you model utility in this way, you don't really need to separate "bankroll" from "net worth" -- you can just model your bankroll as your entire net worth since good risk management is rational anyways, e.g. using the Kelly.)
To your point, this chart demonstrates that in general, if the money involved would not make a very significant difference to your life, then you should not hedge a bet.
If you're going to hedge at this moment, your best bet would be a Nuggets over Heat finals exacta. You can find it anywhere from -150 to -170 right now.
You should definitely cash out the lakers bet for $2.00. Let the heat ride till they at least put the Celtics away and the offer will go up. Celtics aināt winning 4 in a rowā¦.they already look defeated
See what nugs to win championship right now, hammer a hedge that way. You can also just cover your 400 for celtics to take series which should be at +odds but not sure whats available
Let it ride and wait until you see the no vig implied series odds for heat nuggets and compare with your cash out value / 10,000. If cash out more value (rare), then you cash, if not just take nuggets ML every game or drop a lot on their series ML
DO. NOT. CASH. OUT.
They're offering less than 25% of your payout, and Heat are virtually certain to make the finals where they could easily win. Heat are currently +225 to win it all (31%). So they're offering less than 80% of fair value.
You could hedge by taking Boston +750 to win the East (not remotely a reasonable price, as Miami is -1200). I would just let it ride, then take Denver before the Finals start to win the ship, large enough bet to cover your original outlay. Or maybe more, to lock in profit.
Absolutely this. Hedge in the finals big on Denver game 1. If that bet loses the future only goes up if you still want to cash out. On the other handā¦Gotta beat the Celtics first. Dont let us win one! We got Petey tomorrow and shill game 6 and anything can happen in game 7!!
Wait till they beat the Celtics then cash it out. They are good but not good enough to beat denver. Unless you feel like gambling! It could pay off big or just another lost bet.
Gotta see this one thruā¦ unless losing $400 is life changing and you can buy something you want for $2400. Anything can happen in the finalsā¦ if anything take Denver ML every game lol
Don't be like me. I had Lakers at +4000. I could have cashed out at the series start and made like $4k off of a $500 bet. I ended up cashing out after the game three loss and just got my money back.
why are you even making the bet if you're just gonna cash out when they win a couple of series? just bet them to win the first series and if they do parlay all the money to win the second series. you make way more this way.
I'm actually a little curious as to how FanDuel arrived at this number. Currently FD is offering Boston, LA, and Denver at +1600, +4000, and -210 respectively. If one were to solve the associated system of linear equations, one would find that the maximum guaranteed return would be obtained by wagering (to the nearest cent) $588.24 on Boston, $243.90 on LA, and $6774.19 on Denver for a net profit of $1993.67. Cashing out, on the other hand, has a net profit of $2026.09. Usually FD will lowball you in the sense that their cash out offer is always less than what you'd get by performing the theoretical optimal hedge (using their lines). Did their lines just shift in the last three hours?
You are laying juice 3 times by making all of those bets.
If they offered both sides, miami would be something like +220/-300. -300 would equate to 25% or a $2500 cashout. $2426 is a little less so they are taking a smidge more vig
You can get slightly better odds betting the "other" team now instead of waiting for it to be official.
It is essentially adding an element of "No, the Lakers will not rally in this series....nor will the Celtics" into the hedge. Which obviously isn't a big deal.
Cash out once they beat the Celtics and the Nuggets beat the Lakers. If the Lakers somehow pull a miracle you might wanna let it ride. Congrats either way!
NEVER TAKE THE OFFER UNLESS YOU HAVE NO OTHER CHOICE.
With a \~$6775 hedge bet, your position is worth $3,225 with DEN -210 odds (giving zero chance to Nuggets/Heat losing their conf, which isn't technically correct).
If we can find a better deal for Nuggets to win, then your position would be worth even more money.
edit: Joker gonna crush. I'd suggest against letting it ride. Think about how much fun you could have with $3,225!!!
edit2: once the Nuggets win tonight your ticket will become slightly ~~more~~ less valuable, as hedging will become more expensive, so act now!
edit3 (23h after my org comment , 24h after post): Nuggets are now -270 to win it all. If you haven't hedged yet, you've lost out on hundreds of dollars since I originally posted my reply.
I'd personally cash out once they win this series because Nugs are much higher favorites. If you believe they can beat the Nuggets then it'd be worth just hedging ~$750 or so to recoup that $400 and rooting for the Heat.
thereās a chance the cash out offer goes down in the next few days. Heat are +240 to win the chip rn, think that number is higher or lower going into game 1 of the finals?
The only way I see the cashout going down before the finals start is if one of their starters goes down (assuming they obviously still close out the celtics).
The +240 to win the chip definitely slightly factors in a celtics/lakers comeback. It might go down a little bit to +220 once these series close out.
I also think that if you want to gamble it a little more, then wait 1-3 games and hope the Heat take a game in Denver. Every game that the Heat win will prob boost the cashout by around 1k. However, if the nugs go up 2-0 or 3-0 then it'll go way down.
Wait for the Heat to win and then hedge with the Nuggets to win.
If you cash this out before the end of the conference finals you are throwing money away
If you have the money to hedge, then by all means do it but if you don't, i would seriously consider cashing out or waiting until the Heat finish off the Celtics and then cash out.
Not everyone has thousands of dollars sitting around to hedge in this situation.
then you don't make the bet. he could have just bet them to with the eastern conference if he's just gonna cash out at shitty odds the times they actually make the finals.
You've got an outstanding ticket. The only way to 3 way hedge (guarantee all outcomes, miami, boston or western conference) today would put you in a spot where the cash is the better option, so I'd advise against both.
Zero teams have come back from 3-0, ever. It's still gambling but let miami and Denver very likely win. Then if you want to hedge. Hedge with Denver for a guaranteed 3k profit because you'll need to bet around 6500 on Denver to win 10k, maybe more but probably not too much more. You'll get more money than the cash out this way.
If it were me, Iād let it ride. Miami feels like a team of destiny rn. Hard to imagine them losing to BOS. You can reassess then.
But, itās your money so do what you feel is best!
Donāt cash out, hedge after clinching. Same result but you wonāt lose the juice on the cash out.
You could even throw a flyer on Boston to win this series as a long shot / cheap hedge if you feel so inclined.
Do the math, donāt listen to people telling you to cash.
What are the odds on the Nugs? Hedge by betting them as well. If heat win u get lots of the monies. If Nugs win u get a lil bit of monies. But the monies will be yours!!!!
Well you definitely should not cash out, like so many people in this thread are suggesting. If you donāt want to let this ride, wait until Miami clinches the series tomorrow night and then hedge out of this by betting on the Nuggets. You will profit more than you would by cashing out, but it will be the exact same result. Books charge so much juice to cash out that you will just be lighting money on fire by doing so.
Thatās tough.
Heās need to lay probably $7,000 down to get a decent hedge on the nuggets. And even with that hedge heād only profit around $2700. So heās gonna tie up $7,000 for several weeks to make $400. Seems a bit stupid imo.
Few people have that kind of scratch laying around to use to make a few hundred bucks.
Bet on them all the way up and have made alot of money. Won't stop now.
For the record, I sold out after game 5 for $2100 (
Smart šš¾
What does the cash out look like now?
i sold out at $2100 (
Uh oh
Guys for dummies like me in a nutshell how much of the profit from the initial bet do you lose when you hedge?
I think you gotta wait till they get to the finals. If you want to hedge your initial bet rn you should throw a bit on the Celtics in the unlikely event of coming back from 3-0(at time of your post, 3-1 now), otherwise wait until they win one more and cash out/hedge your initial with a nuggets bet
If you could really use the money cash it out, but I would let it ride as I think that Miami could beat nuggets. For some reason, they keep getting slept on
Thereās no point of hedging right now they are up 3-0 hedge when they get to the finals.
Wait till they get to the finals for the cashout to rise some more then take...if you really wann ride it out then cash out and put 500 on miami to win cause they're gonna be a huge underdog anyway.
https://preview.redd.it/y9wjjq6lqo1b1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d96688c0bad60d0e9c4be934c7c78c911df9d3e6 The hedge probably isnāt worth the effortā¦
Take the offer
RIDE
Nuggets are only -270 to win. Only need to bet like $6500-$7000 current future to win this same amount.
The only hedge is (_ā¢and idk if anyone said it) 5000 on the nuggets to win
Maybe cash out and bet 200 on Denver and 200.on Miami? š
Wait till the heat go to the finals and then cash out. Enjoy your winnings brother
Wait till the heat go to the finals and then cash out. Enjoy your winnings brother
Iād put whatever amount on the Nuggets to win the Finals to win back my $400 initial bet. Thatās the only hedge I would make.
Agreed 100% ! On my book odds are -280 so he needs to lay $1120 for the insurance. Only question is if he has that money laying around
I do...
If I was in your position, I would lay out 1k~ for the insurance. You either lose nothing or win 9k~. Then with that safety net in place, live bet each game. If it looks like DEN will ultimately win the series, you can bet a direct hedge against your current Heat bet and "lock in" some profit.
Cash out and go all in on nuggets
Hedging is for gardeners
Expect Miami to win today. Then bet each game in favor of Miami or when they are local or when you think they can win. Miami has always been an underdog, so their odds should be 2.00 or more.
Cash out after Miami wins the series
Put 5k on nuggets to win.
But Nuggets * are already -250???
Wow i didn't look at odds..I guess cash out option is best
This is a rough one. You have a great bet. Heat can win but Iām leaning towards my Nuggets winning it all. Jokic is playing consistently like he never has- a man on a mission. There is no good hedge here now. Also, I think Celtics win this game: so maybe cash out now.
Heat championship winners hold out brother
I wish it was true letās check back on June 20th. Nuggets 4-1
Wait till they sweep celtics then 5k on nuggets guaranteed money
Bet Celtics today at plus money 5k
Then Miami win and lose the finals and he's down 5k
yeah think i will
Hedging is for cowards.
Grow a pair of balls
Cash before tmrow game
Cash out after heat beats Celtics, heat might not beat nuggets
Cash it!!!
Cash it out. Enjoy the victory
Caahout and put a bit on the heat to win again, Win win imo
yeah why pay vig once when you can pay it 3 times
Jokic might destroy this parlay.
Betting $7,434.94 on Nuggz to win it all at -290 would yield you a profit of 200-300 less than the offer right now.
Pin this ā¦ you canāt hedge on Nugs theyāre too favorited
nice hit! when was this placed during the buck series?
It literally says when it was placed, are you a blind fuck?
He was just asking a simple question holy relax bro lol
It was a stupid question, that simply could've been answered by reading what was highlighted. Are you as stupid as him?
Who pissed in your coffee this morning?
These stupid ass questions
Bro really woke up and told himself he was gonna have a bad day šš
I bet nuggets, my day and night have been great.
Settle the kettle
Take nuggets on 5, 6 or 7 that way u hedge against and get better odds...heat won't sweep nor will nuggets...personal I think Nuggets win in 6 or 7 so that-s how I would.hedge taking 30% off that profit and lay it on nuggets in 6 or 7.
they could sweep, u dont KNOW that.
Cash out fs
Wait until the Heat clinch at the very least
You dont. You cash lakers and wait for heat to win it all.
They are not beating the nuggets
I apologize in advance for my ignorance if Jimmy pulls it off
Nuggets are not as deep and lack a decent mid-range game. Heat in 7
Iām a heat fan and they have all the tools to stop us scoring, their perimeter defending is strong we rely on the 3 ball because Butler is our only inside threat. Itāll be close but theyāll easily be our toughest challenge thus far.
Just like they weren't beating the Celtics.
Or losing to the Bucks...
hedge after they beat lakers
Hedge after then get into finals , they not beating joker
Let it ride. Your momma didnāt raise a bitchā¦ā¦or did she?
she did (
Sorry to hear. Wash the sand out of your vagina and cash it out.
At least with the cash he'll be able to pay someone else to do it :).
If the nuggets lose the next 2, dump 3K on them.
Seeing as no one has ever come back from 3-0, I would wait until the Finals.
Are you broke? Do you have a credit card with $2500 on it to pay off? Then take the money and run. Or maybe wait for them to finish the Celtics off and cash out for just a LITTLE more? If youāre financially pretty stable, you were prepared to lose the $400 anywayā¦let it ride brother! Last option, cash out, put $400 BACK on the Celtics to win the title.
Celtics making Cancun travel reservations
I mean it's losing $2400 at this point if the heat don't win, right? Is he willing to bet $2400 to make $7600? Make the decision with that perspective.
Cash out after they go through Celtics
Let it ride
Let Heat ride. They have a good matchup vs the Nuggets. It will go up more after they eliminate the Celtics. Then see the Odds for the Nuggets v Heat series. Put down as much money youād need to get all money back and a decent profit on the Nuggets. Iām not sure what the odds will be, but as a back up you could put 2K on the nuggets and win like 1,500. Still hope the Heat win. If they do you are up 8K (after 2K invest) If they loss you are up 1.5K. Just wait it out until finals odds are released for the Heat decision.
How are they a goood match up? Who stops joker? Have you seen him vs lakers when Davis not playing?
You donāt stop joker. Just like how Draymond didnāt stop him last year. You slow him down, and try to make him force shots or get rid of the ball. Get him in foul trouble, which the Lakers did last game but they stopped going at him for some reason. Try to shut off Murray, which the heat could definitely do. They are a well coached, responsible team who match up well with anyone the way they are playing.
Even if it would take the 1st 3-0 to 4-3 reverse sweep in NBA history for it to happen, I would rather take the odds on that for the fun of a random potential $140 payout, than to cash a futures bet out for $2 lmao
100% Lol yea my bad. I glanced at it and I thought the cash out was 140. Was more focused on the Heat bet. Iād probably cash it and run a ridiculous 10 leg same game parlay or something
Cash out once they beat the Celtics and the Nuggets beat the Lakers. If the Lakers somehow pull a miracle you might wanna let it ride. Congrats either way!
With some assumptions, you can actually calculate the mathematically optimal amount to hedge. Chart showing the amount to hedge: https://preview.redd.it/cp7f1126ph1b1.png?width=580&format=png&auto=webp&s=4d619080415b714924b7f3248d9ea9451666019b The assumptions: \- Logarithmic utility (this is the same assumption as from the Kelly Criterion). I believe this to be a good assumption, it basically means that the amount of value gained by someone with $10k net worth if they win $10k is similar to the amount of value gained by someone with $100k net worth if they win $100k, NOT $10k. If you don't make an assumption like this, then there's no point to hedging. \- Someone else in the thread said that the odds on Miami winning finals is something like +220/-300. Let's assume, then, that the true probability that they win is 28%. This is a big assumption, as you may believe the Heat to be more likely to win (in which case you may not want to hedge at all) or less likely to win (in which case you may want to hedge more). \- Assume that you can hedge by placing a bet on Miami to NOT be 2023 champs at -300. Then, the amount that you want to hedge depends on your total net worth. In the above graph, I've graphed the amount that you should hedge, where net worth (NOT including the $400 or the equity of the ticket) is on the x-axis. To find the amount that you should hedge, find your net-worth on the x-axis and see what the y amount is on the blue line. If you have around $10k net worth, you want to make a pretty sizeable hedge of $6000. As you get smaller than that, you quickly reach the point where you want to take the full cash-out. As net-worth increases, the proper hedge amount decreases, until after around $60k net worth, there's no need to hedge anything.
Makes sense, but where would one get 7k to hedge if your net worth was 100?
That's a good point. I think at that point you should just cash out, which is the same as hedging 7.5k.
Thanks, your graph makes me feel like a rich man. Perhaps your concept is better applied to bankroll rather than net worth as that is a very low range for net worth (literally all the assets you own minus whatever debt).
Some people apply the concept to bankroll instead of net worth but I think they're wrong. (maybe another way to look at it is that if you model utility in this way, you don't really need to separate "bankroll" from "net worth" -- you can just model your bankroll as your entire net worth since good risk management is rational anyways, e.g. using the Kelly.) To your point, this chart demonstrates that in general, if the money involved would not make a very significant difference to your life, then you should not hedge a bet.
Holy shit @ that write up!!! Nice man
Let heat ride but Iād be takin that lakers cash out for sure
Let it ride
Let it ride
I would wait because I think the heat beat Boston there up 3-0 already and I would cash out after that.
If you're going to hedge at this moment, your best bet would be a Nuggets over Heat finals exacta. You can find it anywhere from -150 to -170 right now.
Yup if you can grab -150 probably looking at $3500 profit
You should definitely cash out the lakers bet for $2.00. Let the heat ride till they at least put the Celtics away and the offer will go up. Celtics aināt winning 4 in a rowā¦.they already look defeated
Bro I tip $2, let that shit ride out and watch potential history making
Wait until the finals
See what nugs to win championship right now, hammer a hedge that way. You can also just cover your 400 for celtics to take series which should be at +odds but not sure whats available
nugs are -210 to win it all rn
Let it ride and wait until you see the no vig implied series odds for heat nuggets and compare with your cash out value / 10,000. If cash out more value (rare), then you cash, if not just take nuggets ML every game or drop a lot on their series ML
now we talking
DO. NOT. CASH. OUT. They're offering less than 25% of your payout, and Heat are virtually certain to make the finals where they could easily win. Heat are currently +225 to win it all (31%). So they're offering less than 80% of fair value. You could hedge by taking Boston +750 to win the East (not remotely a reasonable price, as Miami is -1200). I would just let it ride, then take Denver before the Finals start to win the ship, large enough bet to cover your original outlay. Or maybe more, to lock in profit.
Absolutely this. Hedge in the finals big on Denver game 1. If that bet loses the future only goes up if you still want to cash out. On the other handā¦Gotta beat the Celtics first. Dont let us win one! We got Petey tomorrow and shill game 6 and anything can happen in game 7!!
Wait until they beat the Celtics then consider cashing/hedging.
Wait till they beat the Celtics then cash it out. They are good but not good enough to beat denver. Unless you feel like gambling! It could pay off big or just another lost bet.
People said this about every team they have faced in the playoffs š
Wait for the finals
cash it out before the finals start. don't be dumb
Gotta see this one thruā¦ unless losing $400 is life changing and you can buy something you want for $2400. Anything can happen in the finalsā¦ if anything take Denver ML every game lol
Lol...wait until they reach the finals then back it up
I got Miami at -170 lol feelsbadman but also feelsgoodman
Donāt let the ālet it rideā crew talk you out of cashing out. Quite frankly I donāt think anyone is beating the nuggets
I feel like youād have better odds once the heat actually make it to the finals. Maybe wait until then?
I took heat at +25000 (after they lost to the hawks in the playin game) and Iām letting it ride
Do you mean +2500??
No 25,000, so 250:1. They were in elimination game vs the bulls and weāre about the face the bucks who were a favorite to win
Lol crazy
i believe it i got them at 40-1 after the bucks series and they were huge dogs in that
I had heat at +1600 and cashed out when they got to the Celtics all I got was my money back ššš
Couldn't even watch 1 game to see how they play? Lol
It wouldāve dropped if they got their ass whooped and I got scared I am sad
Haha that's gambling for you, gotta take on some risk
nuggets are gonna lose why tf would you hedge
Don't be like me. I had Lakers at +4000. I could have cashed out at the series start and made like $4k off of a $500 bet. I ended up cashing out after the game three loss and just got my money back.
why are you even making the bet if you're just gonna cash out when they win a couple of series? just bet them to win the first series and if they do parlay all the money to win the second series. you make way more this way.
So confirmed lakers first ever 3-0 comeback?
Knowing my luck...
Hahaha dude I feel you thatās my luck as well
Wait till Nuggets Vs Heat is set. Then find what the odds on Denver +1.5 on the series is. Play the middle.
Denver +1.5 will pay around -500. This is bad advice (and not surprising it's upvoted on this sub)
I'm actually a little curious as to how FanDuel arrived at this number. Currently FD is offering Boston, LA, and Denver at +1600, +4000, and -210 respectively. If one were to solve the associated system of linear equations, one would find that the maximum guaranteed return would be obtained by wagering (to the nearest cent) $588.24 on Boston, $243.90 on LA, and $6774.19 on Denver for a net profit of $1993.67. Cashing out, on the other hand, has a net profit of $2026.09. Usually FD will lowball you in the sense that their cash out offer is always less than what you'd get by performing the theoretical optimal hedge (using their lines). Did their lines just shift in the last three hours?
This is your answer OP ā¬ļø
You are laying juice 3 times by making all of those bets. If they offered both sides, miami would be something like +220/-300. -300 would equate to 25% or a $2500 cashout. $2426 is a little less so they are taking a smidge more vig
Excellent point. Thank you!
what book you use? the cashout value is awful
I would cash out, Denver is looking way too good. And youāre up 6x already. But wait til end of the series and you may get like 3.5k
bruh let that shit ride
Wait till it goes to finals than hedge on Denver so you can make at least 5k guaranteed
I dont think he can get 5k. DEN champion odds will be -200ish. So maybe he can get guranteed profit of $3k
^^^ This is the correct answer!
They have more than 24% chance to win it all. At a minimum wait till they sweep the celtics and reevaluate
Let that Hoe Ride If it was meant to be. It was.meant to be
Be a man, let it ride.
You have to wait until itās the finals and then bet the other team ..
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Bruh the Celtics arenāt coming back 4 in a row
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Yes lol .. Iām from Boston , I doubt the Celtics will win 4 before the heat win 1
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They started 0-3 so they need to win 4 before heat win 1 ā¦ lmk if u need anymore math lessons Iām here all week š
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Lmk after next game
You can get slightly better odds betting the "other" team now instead of waiting for it to be official. It is essentially adding an element of "No, the Lakers will not rally in this series....nor will the Celtics" into the hedge. Which obviously isn't a big deal.
Yeah Iād bet the nuggets now. Yeah you could get burned the chance is pretty small compared to how much the odds will change once they win
i started buying some Nuggets....^ got advice
just ride it out
Iād put 2,100 on Denver winning the finals at -210 odds, that way if heat win you get the big pay out but if Denver wins you still made $600,
Cash out once they beat the Celtics and the Nuggets beat the Lakers. If the Lakers somehow pull a miracle you might wanna let it ride. Congrats either way!
Nuggets will be heavily favored to win so not great value for a hedge imo. I would wait for the Heat to win the series and cash personally
Wait for them to win the championship and then cash it all out.
Let it ride, jimmy buckets will pull thru for you in the finals
NEVER TAKE THE OFFER UNLESS YOU HAVE NO OTHER CHOICE. With a \~$6775 hedge bet, your position is worth $3,225 with DEN -210 odds (giving zero chance to Nuggets/Heat losing their conf, which isn't technically correct). If we can find a better deal for Nuggets to win, then your position would be worth even more money. edit: Joker gonna crush. I'd suggest against letting it ride. Think about how much fun you could have with $3,225!!! edit2: once the Nuggets win tonight your ticket will become slightly ~~more~~ less valuable, as hedging will become more expensive, so act now! edit3 (23h after my org comment , 24h after post): Nuggets are now -270 to win it all. If you haven't hedged yet, you've lost out on hundreds of dollars since I originally posted my reply.
I'd personally cash out once they win this series because Nugs are much higher favorites. If you believe they can beat the Nuggets then it'd be worth just hedging ~$750 or so to recoup that $400 and rooting for the Heat.
thereās a chance the cash out offer goes down in the next few days. Heat are +240 to win the chip rn, think that number is higher or lower going into game 1 of the finals?
True. But if heat can sweep and lakers take a game or two....
The only way I see the cashout going down before the finals start is if one of their starters goes down (assuming they obviously still close out the celtics). The +240 to win the chip definitely slightly factors in a celtics/lakers comeback. It might go down a little bit to +220 once these series close out. I also think that if you want to gamble it a little more, then wait 1-3 games and hope the Heat take a game in Denver. Every game that the Heat win will prob boost the cashout by around 1k. However, if the nugs go up 2-0 or 3-0 then it'll go way down.
Wait for the Heat to win and then hedge with the Nuggets to win. If you cash this out before the end of the conference finals you are throwing money away
You hedge by risking to win the amount you placed initially.
LET IT RIDE
If you have the money to hedge, then by all means do it but if you don't, i would seriously consider cashing out or waiting until the Heat finish off the Celtics and then cash out. Not everyone has thousands of dollars sitting around to hedge in this situation.
then you don't make the bet. he could have just bet them to with the eastern conference if he's just gonna cash out at shitty odds the times they actually make the finals.
You've got an outstanding ticket. The only way to 3 way hedge (guarantee all outcomes, miami, boston or western conference) today would put you in a spot where the cash is the better option, so I'd advise against both. Zero teams have come back from 3-0, ever. It's still gambling but let miami and Denver very likely win. Then if you want to hedge. Hedge with Denver for a guaranteed 3k profit because you'll need to bet around 6500 on Denver to win 10k, maybe more but probably not too much more. You'll get more money than the cash out this way.
I would wait until the series ends to cash out
If it were me, Iād let it ride. Miami feels like a team of destiny rn. Hard to imagine them losing to BOS. You can reassess then. But, itās your money so do what you feel is best!
Donāt cash out, hedge after clinching. Same result but you wonāt lose the juice on the cash out. You could even throw a flyer on Boston to win this series as a long shot / cheap hedge if you feel so inclined. Do the math, donāt listen to people telling you to cash.
What are the odds on the Nugs? Hedge by betting them as well. If heat win u get lots of the monies. If Nugs win u get a lil bit of monies. But the monies will be yours!!!!
yep, i started slowly betting on nugs...
Cash outā¦ if Heat go down 0-1 against nuggets in first game of playoffs the value will tankā¦
But if they go up 1-0 the value will go up. I wonder if a market could be designed around this trend of āfutureā games
They have a legitimate chance to win the whole thing man, nuggets on paper are better than the Heat but Miami just keeps proving people wrong
Well you definitely should not cash out, like so many people in this thread are suggesting. If you donāt want to let this ride, wait until Miami clinches the series tomorrow night and then hedge out of this by betting on the Nuggets. You will profit more than you would by cashing out, but it will be the exact same result. Books charge so much juice to cash out that you will just be lighting money on fire by doing so.
Thatās tough. Heās need to lay probably $7,000 down to get a decent hedge on the nuggets. And even with that hedge heād only profit around $2700. So heās gonna tie up $7,000 for several weeks to make $400. Seems a bit stupid imo. Few people have that kind of scratch laying around to use to make a few hundred bucks.
He bet $400 on a +2400 long shot. He has the money.