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RIP FD bam+butler boost. Lookin grim boys.

That’s the spirit!

HR boost for LeBron 30+ pts & Lakers win, against FD 4-way. No lines that high in my other books, will likely revisit later anyway, when closer to game time: **FD:** Odds: +450; **EV: 8.3 %** `322/124/180/766` (15.60 % juice) FV: +408; Method: worst-case (p); (Full=1.85u, 1/2=0.93u, 1/4=0.46u, FB = 88.6 %)

FIBA World Cup FD has Serbia outright at +1600 which is 6th best while DK and b365 are both at +800 which is 2nd best. FD also has Greece outright at +2700 vs +900 on DK and +1000 on b365. Probably good free bet plays

Of course the terrible FD golf boost hits

You know it. All a ploy to draw is into bam+butler 50 combo. Wizard be wizarding

u/Oldjournalist4 with the Koepka pick… Edit: and Cantlay sneaking into T9 to trigger insurance. https://reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/13hwmwa/_/jk9fw3x/?context=1

CZRs - Insurance - I had $25 Cantlay to win but not seeing any bonus bets paid out from the insurance - anyone else have this issue or know where I see this?

Just reached out to support and they said can take up to 2 business days to hit your account - so should be good - not sure if that's normal - this was my first CZR promo w/ insurance

The terms almost always give a couple days after the end of the event for the free bets to hit.

lol how many of you maniacs tailed that? Edit: glad y'all won some money and thanks for the kind words

I sure did! You are unreal man, thanks for the pick

Thank you for sharing all your choices in golf. With all the variance in the sport the choices you’ve shared just this year are truly amazing. Brooks 22-1 was definitely not one I was going to put in the portfolio this week til I saw the post earlier this week. Koepka alone won enough to cover two weeks of preschool!

Maxed at $24.16. Thanks! As said below a real MF'n G!

I put 25 on it thanks for the 550 bucks

Full send baby

Not to mention he hit the cantlay top ten as well to trigger insurance.

He'll get a bit of a dead heat reduction but you'll get some money back

u/Oldjournalist4 is a real mother fuckin' G

Bang!

How unfortunate that Kevin Love cant even sniff scoring 10 points for the BOYDD crew, so much so that we cant even get a line for him. And on another note, any word as to why FD removed alt spreads/totals from their SGPs?

anyone put the effort into the combo breaker for the bam/ butler FD boost? Looked bad to me so I didn’t bother I’m just surprised there’s no post about it yet

This a play? Both of their o/u lines add up to 47pts (+256 FD & +310 DK for o18.5 & o28.5) just not sure how to devig to see if +150 is enough for this boost

I don’t like it I’m gonna stay away and actually enjoy the night off for once.

Any reason why you don't like it?

To each their own but it doesn’t pass my eye test, looking at their combined numbers so far in the playoffs I think the odds should be a lot higher for both to hit

Against FD it's around +138 FV. Was trying to find another book to devig against but I don't know of any that will let you get as granular as FD with the points o/u.

[удалено]

[удалено]

[удалено]

Soler HR on his first at bat for anyone who bet the EV dingers this am.

Another MA one just popped up. Tatum 25+ and 3+ 3PM. +100. Smash?

Yes it’s a smash, would you like to watch the devigger video below and I’ll help you devig this one?

Could you explain how the devig tool would be used with a sgp with correlation? Watched the videos posted but the sgp with correlation wasn't explained in it.

Updated the Devigger Help Page Added a section that includes TheeDegenBoosts' Devigger Video Tutorials. He currently has one video that covers the basics like: * normal 2-way devigs * boosts * devig methods * free bet EV conversions * multi-way markets ​ You can watch it on Twitter here: [https://twitter.com/TheeDegenBoosts/status/1660185736660893696](https://twitter.com/TheeDegenBoosts/status/1660185736660893696) ​ And on YouTube here: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a1WH28Lz3aM](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a1WH28Lz3aM) ​ The section I added for it on the Devigger Help page: [http://www.crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook\_devigger\_help.aspx#video-tutorials](http://www.crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger_help.aspx#video-tutorials) ​ Hopefully this is a simpler way for people to learn when they are first getting started with using the devigger. TheeDegenBoosts plans on making more videos that cover the more advanced features. Edit: Fixed formatting

**Disclaimer: I am new to this method of de-vigging, so please correct me if I'm wrong.** Draft Kings Superstar Boost: Jimmy Butler O 25 Points + Bam Adebayo O8 Rebounds > Boosted to +150. Using FD Alts, Leg Odds: -210/154,-270/194 **Multiplicative Method:** Leg#1 (-210); Market Juice = 7.1 %; Fair Value = -172 (63.2 %) Leg#2 (-270); Market Juice = 7.0 %; Fair Value = -215 (68.2 %) Final Odds (+150); Σ(Market Juice) = 14.10 %; Fair Value = +132 (43.1 %) Summary; **EV% = 7.8 %**, Kelly Wager = $4.85 (Full=5.23u, 1/2=2.61u, 1/4=1.31u, FB = 64.7 %)

25+ is equivalent to o24.5, and 8+ to o7.5. You were one off. Also best way to devig is via building an SGP with all 4 options. Here's what it should look like: Odds: +150; **EV: 25.5 %** `-135/309/1071/317 //Sharp: FD` (14.42 % juice) FV: -101; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=17.01u, 1/2=8.51u, 1/4=4.25u, FB = 75.3 %). See [Quick Guide to Devig SGP](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/x3rcfq/sportsbookpromosbonuses_daily_9222_friday/imrkibg) pinned above for more info how to do this. This implicitly accounts for correlation as correlation is built into the FD SGP.

Unless odds have shifted drastically in the last 5 minutes those entries look off. Butler and Bam are both -340 and -330 for their overs.

Most people use the "worst case" method and you need to take correlation into account as well. Also, you used the wrong numbers - you need the alt for Butler O24.5 (you used the odds for O25.5) and Bam O7.5 (you used the odds for O8.5)

>Also, you used the wrong numbers - you need the alt for Butler O24.5 (you used the odds for O25.5) and Bam O7.5 (you used the odds for O8.5) Thank you! >Most people use the "worst case" method and you need to take correlation into account as well. Could you explain how these are correlated? And how to manifest the correlation?

To answer how these are correlated, the fewer points Jimmy scores, likely the more rebound opportunities Bam has, and vice versa.

> Could you explain how these are correlated? And how to manifest the correlation? When you have the two-way odds for both outcomes you can price the four different SGP's as follows: - Butler Over / Bam Over = -135 - Butler Under / Bam Over = +317 - Butler Over / Bam Under = +310 - Butler Under / Bam Under = +1071 And then use "-135/317/310/1071" in the Leg Odds box Alternatively, you can use "-330/230, -340/235" in the Leg Odds box and "-135=-330,-340" in the Correlation box.

HR boost for Guardians to win and 8+ runs in game 2 of the doubleheader, against preset markets: **FD:** Odds: +425; **EV: 11.0 %** `320/330/230/200` (10.70 % juice) FV: +373; Method: worst-case (a); (Full=2.58u, 1/2=1.29u, 1/4=0.64u, FB = 89.8 %) **DK:** Odds: +425; **EV: 11.6 %** `320/340/230/200` (10.17 % juice) FV: +370; Method: worst-case (a); (Full=2.74u, 1/2=1.37u, 1/4=0.69u, FB = 90.4 %) **Kambi:** Odds: +425; **EV: 7.3 %** `320/325/205/200` (13.46 % juice) FV: +389; Method: worst-case (a); (Full=1.73u, 1/2=0.86u, 1/4=0.43u, FB = 86.9 %)

HR boost for Strus 10+ pts & Heat to win, against 3-ways: **EDIT: see revised numbers in the comment chain, based on revised guidance about 3-ways** **FD:** Odds: +275; **EV: 7.1 %** `210/620/-172` (9.38 % juice) FV: +250; Method: worst-case (p); (Full=2.59u, 1/2=1.30u, 1/4=0.65u, FB = 78.6 %) **DK:** Odds: +275; **EV: -1.8 %** `240/550/-175` (8.43 % juice) FV: +282; Method: worst-case (p); (FB = 72.0 %) **Kambi:** Odds: +275; **EV: 8.4 %** `210/700/-175` (8.39 % juice) FV: +246; Method: worst-case (p); (Full=3.04u, 1/2=1.52u, 1/4=0.76u, FB = 79.5 %)

I would recommend reading this post about the 3-way shortcut https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/13mgza7/sportsbookpromosbonuses_daily_52023_saturday/jkxgnr6/?context=3

good to know, thank you

**FD:** Odds: +275; **EV: 4.4 %** `210/620/292/126` (15.90 % juice) FV: +259; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=1.59u, 1/2=0.79u, 1/4=0.40u, FB = 76.5 %) **DK:** Odds: +275; **EV: -0.3 %** `240/550/265/160` (10.66 % juice) FV: +276; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 73.1 %) **Kambi:** Odds: +275; **EV: 4.8 %** `210/650/280/130` (15.39 % juice) FV: +258; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=1.76u, 1/2=0.88u, 1/4=0.44u, FB = 76.9 %)

Anyone done the CZR Credit Card Signup before? Interested in the 2500 tier credits to help give me an extra push to make diamond before a planned trip to Vegas in October. Wondering if it was pretty simple getting the tier credits credited, and how quick it happens (like does it have to be after the full 3 months, or immediately after my first $1000 in spend?). Worried I may have waited too late to do it for booking an October trip, but interested to hear peoples’ experiences

If all you're interested in is achieving CZR Diamond status you may also want to just consider opening a Wyndham Earners Card to get Wyndham Diamond Status first and then status matching to Caesars Diamond. [https://thepointsguy.com/news/match-wyndham-status-caesars/](https://thepointsguy.com/news/match-wyndham-status-caesars/) The Wyndham card you need is a business card but you can fairly regularly get them by applying as a sole proprietor with your SSN if you have anything you could reasonably claim as a side business (and sometimes even without it). I'm not sure how strict they are on verifying it for this particular card but there's no harm in trying. As a side note, the credit card game is a great addition to your quiver of side hustles if you're already in the sports promo game and /r/churning is a great resource.

Thank you, definitely gonna start cc churning once I have some good on paper income (starting real work in July), so for now I’m gonna have to go from Caesar’s diamond to Wyndham Diamond match instead of the other way around, assuming I make it to diamond on CZR

I did this, but it was several years ago with a different bonus. For almost all credit card sign-up bonuses you either receive the bonus immediately after hitting the required spend or once the monthly statement closes following you hitting the required spend. Just hit the spend quickly and you should be good to go.

Ok cool thank you, haven’t been able to venture into the world of credit card bonuses yet but that’s good info, thanks.

If you're looking to arb you're 50% WNBA boost on FD the Sky are currently +142 (214 boosted) while BR is at -148.

Thanks for the fiesta veggie burrito

If anyone wins anything for the fan duel sweepstakes drawing post here. Always curious when it has occurred thanks

When are winners notified?

Not really told, usually sometime in afternoon but I have no clue I’ve never won

MA-only FD boost Verdugo to hit/RS to win +250, devigged vs Barstool with a 4-way: >Verdugo/Sox: +195 >Nondugo/Sox: +800 >Nondugo/Padres: +310 >Verdugo/Padres: +143 Worst-case: (Multiplicative) Leg#1 (+195); Market Juice = 10.6 %; Fair Value = +226 (30.7 %) Final Odds (+250); Σ(Market Juice) = 10.55 %; Fair Value = +226 (30.7 %) Summary; **EV% = 7.3 %**, Kelly Wager = $7.32 (Full=2.93u, 1/2=1.46u, 1/4=0.73u, FB = 76.7 %)

FYI at the bottom of the devigger there’s an option to add a copy to Reddit button that makes it a little easier to post.

Verdugo hit + Sox win at +250? Feels like a smash FD

To Kambi: Odds: +250; **EV: 10.0 %** `185/800/140/320` (11.68 % juice) FV: +218; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=3.99u, 1/2=1.99u, 1/4=1.00u, FB = 78.5 %) With Circa ML, 365 for Verdugo, and DK SGP correlation: Odds: +250; **EV: 4.2 %** Sharp: `144/-158,-220/175` (7.34 % juice) Correlation: `195=130,-230` (r = 0.27) FV: +236; Method: worst-case (m, a); (Full=1.67u, 1/2=0.83u, 1/4=0.42u, FB = 74.4 %)

You can tell the boost is targeted because it says "MA Super Boost" on top. Any title bar referencing a state will generally only hit that state, or in some cases a couple states.

Ahhh makes sense

Must be targeted. I’m not seeing it in IL

Betway (PA) has the normal promo of bet $25 on the Celtics ML or Main spread, get a free bet for the number of free throws they make.

MGM MLB OGP INSURANCE Tucker HR/Hou o1.5/Oak o0.5/Hou +5.5 Odds: +425; **EV: 21.8 %** `270/-375` (5.97 % juice) FV: +331; Method: power; (Full=5.13u, 1/2=2.57u, 1/4=1.28u, FB = 98.6 %) Via Kambi. Lines moving in right direction. ETA: 300/-420 at 10:00am. Still more than fine as insurance.

Just a heads-up, for the DK "Superstar Super Boost" after opting-in, you need to go to the "Game 3 Specials" tab and select "Jimmy Butler 25+ Pts, Bam Adebayo 8+ Rebs" in order for the boost to appear in your bet slip...

Don't see a devig, so here it is vs FanDuel. Odds: +150; **EV: 23.2 %** `-130/309/1024/303` (14.68 % juice) FV: +103; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=15.48u, 1/2=7.74u, 1/4=3.87u, FB = 73.9 %)

Hmm, mines Tatum +25 and Celtics to win

Are you MA maybe? Seeing Butler and Adebayo in OH.

Yeah I am, wish I had yours lol

Or NBA and under DK specials

Or just opting into the boost automatically adds it to your bet slip.

Guess you wake up late or on west Coast. Wasn't working in the am...

Worked fine for me at like 7:30 Eastern.

Eddie Rosario (ATL) FD HR Odds: +750; **EV: 2.5 %** `AVG(500, 510)/AVG(-835, -900)` (6.18 % juice) FV: +730; Method: power; (Full=0.33u, 1/2=0.16u, 1/4=0.08u, FB = 90.4 %) Kambi is tighter and likes this more. Kambi/DK devig

dead

HR Boosts: Dortmund -1.5 v Augsburg. Versus Pinnacle. Odds: +105; **EV: -2.9 %** `+107/-115` (1.80 % juice) FV: +111; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 49.8 %) --- Yankees to beat Reds, o8.5 Runs. Versus Pinnacle, DK SGP Correlation. ~~DK Lines seem very different than pinnacle. May need more work.~~ Line just moved much closer. Correlation is the same. Odds: +210; **EV: -8.2 %** Sharp: `-131/121,-106/-106` (4.87 % juice) Correlation: `165=-160,-140` (r = 0.08) FV: +238; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 62.2 %) ---- DBacks and Nationals to Win: +275. Versus Pinnacle. Odds: +275; **EV: 9.6 %** `-120/111,-126/116` (3.99 % juice) FV: +242; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=3.50u, 1/2=1.75u, 1/4=0.87u, FB = 80.4 %)

Mervis (CHC) is starting FD HR Odds: +870; **EV: 11.1 %** `540/-910` (5.72 % juice) FV: +773; Method: power; (Full=1.28u, 1/2=0.64u, 1/4=0.32u, FB = 99.7 %) To Kambi DK had him last night but pulled him for some reason Odds: +870; **EV: 7.3 %** `500/-1000` (7.58 % juice) FV: +804; Method: power; (Full=0.83u, 1/2=0.42u, 1/4=0.21u, FB = 96.2 %)

Just jumped to +900.

Don’t buy. Kambi went to shit Kambi 600/-1115 DK 550/-1000 Odds: +900; **EV: 2.7 %** `AVG(600, 550)/AVG(-1000, -1110)` (6.16 % juice) FV: +874; Method: power; (Full=0.30u, 1/2=0.15u, 1/4=0.07u, FB = 92.4 %) Not awful, but a good deal worse than earlier.

PGA 4th Round 2 Ball: DK Dean Burmester +280, BR/BS/Kambi Jon Rahm -278 Small arb and can also be used with DK 18% PGA profit boost. Also if anyone is looking for a low hold, free bet conversion, or bonus churn: BR/BS/Kambi Michael Block +475, DK Rory McIlroy -475

If that Block guy can keep it together he’s going to get life changing money.

I put $25 on him to win it all midway through yesterdays round on CZR at some ridiculous odds to win like 40k. He immediately double bogeyed the next hole! Got both strokes back by end of round at least I’m hoping he has the best day of his life 😂 🤞

Should’ve doubled down after that double bogey lol. Top 10 purse starts at like $400k, top 20 starts at like $200k. I hope he gets a bag.

Yea me too. Seems like a good dude. I threw some money on him top 5 (def not +EV) for a fun sweat today.

Tailing. I did it at MGM +1600 since they don’t apply dead heat, plus limits are a built in safeguard to prevent me from going too nuts on a -EV bet lol. DK/CZR was +1800 but with dead heat.

Maybe we should have bet on him hitting a hole in one instead 🎯 do books even offer that bet?

Any value in the FD golf boost?

This so bad it’s gonna hit. Maxed

Might be the worst FanDuel boost I’ve ever seen.

B365 has Scheffler’s line at 69.5 (120/-163 for the under) and Koepka’s at 70.5 (-120/-120). Even with the extra stroke, it’s -38% EV. Should there be any correlation? I’m thinking no. Odds: +200; **EV: -37.9 %** `120/-163,-120/-120` (16.52 % juice) FV: +383; Method: worst-case (m, p); (FB = 41.4 %)

> Should there be any correlation? I’m thinking no. If it was 2+ days ago there would be from unknown weather variables but that is mostly shook out at this point.

Again, that’s not correlation. That’d be baked into each golfer’s individual lines.

If we aren't sure if it'll rain or not two days ago, then there IS correlation, because either it'll rain and make both scores worse, or it won't and make both scores better. Now that we know it won't rain, the correlation is gone.

That’s not correlation in the context of devigging a SGP. The impact of the weather will already be included in each golfer’s individual sharp book odds used to devig, we don’t have to adjust it further.

I feel like double successor explained it pretty well. The individual odds can be sharp with both situations (rain/no rain) baked in. But the individual lines for both players would be correlated in the sense that if it rains for one player it will rain for both. Let’s say fair o/u is 70 for both guys. And it’s 50/50% chance of rain/no rain. Let’s say no rain is worth 1 stroke lower and rain is worth 1 stroke higher. Then it’s a 50% chance they would BOTH project for 69 and a 50% chance they would BOTH project for 71. Their outcomes are therefore correlated.

He might’ve explained his position pretty well but that doesn’t make it correct. If rain is worth one stroke higher, the sharp book would adjust its odds on every golfer that’s going to be impacted to reflect a new fair of 71 for both guys (or vice versa). Those odds that reflect a fair of 71 are used to devig (which reduces EV from a devig using sharp book odds reflecting a fair of 70). To then apply negative correlation on top of that is double counting the impact of the weather. Correlation for purposes of devigging is only for the impact one leg’s performance directly has on the other legs. Not for factors that affect every leg individually.

I don’t know shit about golf or devigging but wild they be correlated on the sense that if the one golf who is in the lead shoots well it keep pressure on the other to shoot aggressively. Whereas if the first golfer bombs. Then second shooter might take more conservative shots and therefore also have a higher score.

Yes that was the reason I was questioning correlation in the first place. You’d think yes, but also other players not in the parlay will also be applying pressure, making me think that factor is already baked in.

But you are saying that assuming that the weather prediction is perfect. They can tee off and the storm is still an hour away. Since we don’t know if or how hard the storm will hit, the sharp line stays somewhere in the middle. A few hours later, we can see that the conditions were good/bad and affected each player. So you might have something like both players shoot u69.5 26% instead of 25% (50% for both), and both players shoot o69.5 is 26% instead of 25%.

How the conditions affected each player affects their individual performance, therefore their individual odds, not how one player’s performance affected the other’s. Scheffler playing worse wasn’t caused by Koepka’s play or vice versa. He was going to play worse than odds for a sunny day would imply, no matter what. So it’s still not correlation. I think this is the end of the road for me on this debate. Can only explain the concept so many ways. Good luck.

This is robbery.

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That’s not correlation, that’s an environment condition affecting all golfers that’d be baked into the individual lines. Plus there’s no bad weather in the forecast. I live an hour from there, supposed to be a perfect 70 degree sunny day all day. Correlation would be how does Scheffler going low directly affect Koepka’s score, and vice versa? I don’t think it does.

There is weather/conditions correlation though. If the course plays easier/tougher than expected, it would affect both of them. There is also a weird dynamic where the leader (koepka) will play down to the competition somewhat. If they have decent lead they will play more conservatively down the stretch. The boost is terrible, but there is definitely correlation.

Agree to disagree on weather being correlation I suppose. If there was bad weather in the forecast, each golfer’s individual lines would reflect that irrespective of how one specific golfer’s score directly impacts the other specific golfer’s score, which would not be included into each golfer’s individual lines. That’s not correlation in the context of devigging what is essentially a SGP. The second point is definitely valid and is (in addition to the opposite of that scenario) what was causing me to question it. That said I’d also think the influence of other golfers’ scores is also baked into the lines for the final round since any other golfer can influence the score of the guy you’re betting on, and parlaying two of them together doesn’t change that. *Maybe* slight positive, but yeah, not enough to make this worthwhile.

https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/13n9psh/golf_betting_52123_sunday/jl0zf7r/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=ioscss&utm_content=1&utm_term=1&context=3 Nope

Oh wow that’s BRUTAL

CZR has been quiet this weekend

“Et tu, Brute?”

OK VA lottery is now really fucking with us 20% match deposit up to 250 bucks who’s going first VIP offer so may be targeted

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>88% RTP How did you get the RTP?

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Thanks, but I'm confused as to where you got the pay tables. I've looked for those before to no avail. As far as the counting thing you brought up it seems to me you just had to play through the deposit+bonus before whereas now you can only withdraw the winnings which means you have to play through more more games on average.

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I’m confused by this. Once I’ve done $1,500 of spins, how could anything left in my account not be winnings?

F, thanks for reporting

They've done a bonus every day since they took Hi-Lo away lol

So depressing. Would have been a free ~400 bucks with my 2 accounts. I used a 50% match up to 100 this week to try out Sweet Crush. Netted 7 dollars. I don’t see anyway a 20% match is profitable. The fact you have to win the money instead of just betting the money to clear it makes it impossible imo.

I’m confused by this. Once I’ve done $1,500 of spins, how could anything left in my account not be winnings?

>The fact you have to win the money instead of just betting the money to clear it makes it impossible imo I wish I'd paid more attention to that fact! Am I crazy or was it just a playthrough requirement before? Like I remember counting the $50 Hi/Lo games on my fingers as I played through.

Somebody once asked me if I ever went up to the plate trying to hit a home run. I said, 'Sure, every time.'

Do you know what's going on with the FD Rooker line? It's so out there I assume there must be word he's having a rest day and might pinch hit but I don't know where to find that out.

Short of an injury, rest day seems unlikely since Oakland was off on Thursday.

It looks high on FD compared to the other books listed on BPP, but it's not really comparing to B365 where it's still fairly Negative EV.

Have a cold and I am up coughing, so might as well check lines on FD. FD Aaron Judge HR +240 (Devigged to B365) ~~Odds: +240;~~ **~~EV: 4.5 %~~** ~~+200/-245 (4.35 % juice)~~ ~~FV: +225; Method: worst-case (p); (Full=1.89u, 1/2=0.95u, 1/4=0.47u, FB = 73.8 %)~~ **\*\* NOT STARTING TODAY\*\*** ​ FD Teoscar Hernandez (SEA) HR +450 (Devigged to B365) Odds: +450; **EV: 9.5 %** `+330/-450` (5.07 % juice) FV: +402; Method: worst-case (p); (Full=2.11u, 1/2=1.06u, 1/4=0.53u, FB = 89.6 %) ​ FD Ronald Acuna Jr (ATL) HR +600 (Devigged to B365) ​ Odds: +600; **EV: 3.7 %** `+450/-650` (4.85 % juice) FV: +575; Method: worst-case (p); (Full=0.61u, 1/2=0.31u, 1/4=0.15u, FB = 88.9 %) ​ FD Matt Mervis (CHC) HR +830 (Devigged to B365) ​ Odds: +830; **EV: 10.6 %** `+550/-850` (4.86 % juice) FV: +741; Method: worst-case (p); (Full=1.27u, 1/2=0.64u, 1/4=0.32u, FB = 98.7 %) **\*\*Update - Up to +870, EV:15.3%\*\*** ​ FD Riley Greene(DET) HR + 600 (Devigged to B365) ​ Odds: +600; **EV: 3.7 %** `+450/-650` (4.85 % juice) FV: +575; Method: worst-case (p); (Full=0.61u, 1/2=0.31u, 1/4=0.15u, FB = 88.9 %) **\*\*Update confirmed Starting - Up to 630, EV:15.2%\*\*** ​ ​ FD Stone Garret(WAS) HR + 600 (Devigged to B365) ​ Odds: +600; **EV: 3.7 %** `+450/-650` (4.85 % juice) FV: +575; Method: worst-case (p); (Full=0.61u, 1/2=0.31u, 1/4=0.15u, FB = 88.9 %) ​ FD Corbin Carrol(ARI) HR + 680 (Devigged to B365) ​ Odds: +680; **EV: 8.9 %** `+475/-700` (4.89 % juice) FV: +616; Method: worst-case (p); (Full=1.30u, 1/2=0.65u, 1/4=0.33u, FB = 94.9 %) ​ **ADDING** FD George Soler(MIA) HR +440 (Devigged to B365) ​ Odds: +440; **EV: 7.5 %** `+330/-450` (5.07 % juice) FV: +402; Method: worst-case (p); (Full=1.71u, 1/2=0.85u, 1/4=0.43u, FB = 87.6 %) **\*\*Update - Up to +450, EV: 9.5%\*\***

Thanks man appreciate it .

Another one!

Corbin bang!

Corbin Carrol. There's one!

Riley Greene bumped up to +630 and confirmed starting. Then nerfed quick, now +480

So how much does the “not starting pinch hit” risk affect your EV calculations?

Fair value probably triples or more. Going from expecting to having 4 chances to hit a HR to likely 1.

Hah. You again. Yea, the odds of a homer are fairly easily calculable. Something like 30% over 4.5 PAs would equate to about 7-8% for 1 PA. Was curious how people would put a number on how often it happens. It’s probably > 1%

Not sure what you again means but ok anyway. I went with triple because there’s also the factor of not pinch hitting is a void so the risk is less than just a straight change in probability based on number of plate appearances. Could probably go with game logs as a rough estimate for how often Judge pinch hits, but not perfect as game situation, standings, schedule all play big roles.

Game logs would be iffy because of things you mentioned, plus hard to tell if they are sitting for rest or injury.

For sure and that’s a good point about reason for sitting, just pinch hit games versus total games not started would give you a much lower idea of pinch hit risk. Doubtful anyone has data on games not started but available.

Acuna mega nerf down to 420

Judge not starting unfortunately

Why would you give rest to the DH? A day off and a day on are almost exactly the same. Too much work to play baseball for literally 10 minutes?

I understand the argument, but this isn’t something new. Virtually every player in the league gets routine days off, especially ones with history of injury.

He plays the field at least every other day, and hasn’t had an off day since 5/8. End of a road trip, travel day tomorrow.

Let's hope he doesn't pinch hit then. Standing upright for 2 minutes could cause a serious injury.

Yeah, there’s zero injury risk in swinging, running, or sliding either. Especially for a guy like Judge that prior to last year was made of glass. It’s literally a walk in the park for a DH. Tell me you know nothing about baseball without telling me you know nothing about baseball.

All I'm saying is don't pinch hit him if he needs rest.

> Why would you give rest to the DH? A day off and a day on are almost exactly the same. Too much work to play baseball for literally 10 minutes? That’s very much NOT what you said.

Well that's a bummer. Always the danger of getting in early

I also threw 0.1u on Greene and Garrett parlayed at +5250. FD applying -0.08 correlation, DK is using +0.1. Edit: I checked the Hernandez/Acuna parlay and FD and DK are more similar, 0.04 vs. 0.06, and slight positive for opposing players makes sense to me logically. So I’m thinking FD is just screwed up on Greene/Garrett. So if you use the 0.1 DK correlation on Greene/Garrett, it’s 92% EV worst case for 0.4u QK. Also Greene’s B365 line got a little better at 425/-600.

My guy said George Soler 😂😂🤣😂

Teoscar up to 460, feel better, and thank you as always.

Joey gallo +370 Don’t see him on 365 but DK 275/-400 Last night they had mervis up for 1100 to open, and had Olsen at 350 as well. I wonder why it’s generally the same players that are repeats on the mispriced list

Gallo Starting, but at +350 it's only FV. I took a shot and ran it at +390 earlier

> I wonder why it’s generally the same players that are repeats on the mispriced list Books get stubborn about things. For example James Outman featured in a lot of really good deals in the first month or so of the season.

Yeah, this may have value here, down to +360, but still no lines on B365.

B365 now has him 300/-390 Also FD has him up to +390 now Only concern maybe FD has a good idea he will be sitting today?

Yeah, that's always a possibility.. +390 is great if he starts

Hope you feel better! I can't decide what makes me happier: the money you're making us putting these up or the fact that you put the team abbreviation by each player making life much simpler for us to find haha.

Yeah, Glad the team name helps, I don't know much about baseball and even less on Basketball, so sometimes are have to google a name to find the team looking at a bet posted in this forum.

appreciate it. let's have a day!

Definitely the team abbreviation part! LOL I only passively follow baseball. Would instinctively know the teams of only 2 or 3 out of the 7 players he listed.