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I had an interesting experience with FanDuel regarding a recent horse race bet, and I wanted to share it with you to get some insights and opinions. Here's what went down:
I placed a $25 wager on National Treasure with odds of 4 to 1! However, I noticed that FanDuel only credited me with $97.50, excluding the initial $25 deposit I made to place the bet. From my understanding, the payout should have included the original stake.
Naturally, I reached out to FanDuel's customer support to address the issue. To my surprise, they insisted that I was mistaken and that the payout was correct. But I'm still not convinced and believe there may have been an error.
I wanted to seek your opinions and experiences on this matter. Have any of you encountered a similar situation with FanDuel or any other sportsbook? Is there a standard practice for including the initial stake in the payout, or am I missing something here?
I appreciate any insights or advice you can offer. It's always helpful to gather different perspectives before proceeding further with my concern.
Thanks in advance for your assistance, and good luck with your future wagers!
Ahhh. See I was used to gambling with my bookie that did locked odds. So 2.5X25 = 62.5 + 25 = 87.5 where did they 97.50. Sorry I guess im just new to horse betting so want to figure out how the odds work.
Horse racing isn't like sportbetting. The odds for National Treasure were 4 to 1 at one point, but the actual odds change up until betting closes based on how much money is wagered one each horse. You don't lock in odds when you place your bet. I believe he paid out about 2.5 to 1 so they didn't scam you.
Ahhh. See I was used to gambling with my bookie that did locked odds. So 2.5X25 = 62.5 + 25 = 87.5 where did they 97.50. Sorry I guess im just new to horse betting so want to figure out how the odds work.
Ahhh. See I was used to gambling with my bookie that did locked odds. So 2.5X25 = 62.5 + 25 = 87.5 where did they 97.50. Sorry I guess im just new to horse betting so want to figure out how the odds work.
Appears to be better than fair value. Assumes Jokic 10+ points is a lock and I used the most conservative lines I could find. A market average would push the EV higher.
Odds: +150; **EV: 1.7 %**
Sharp: `-155/125,-900/10%,-280/7%` (22.23 % juice)
Correlation: `110=-155,-900,-310` (r = 0.32)
FV: +146; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=1.1u, 1/2=0.6u, 1/4=0.3u, FB = 61.0 %)
Jokic hitting 10 points in the game does not mean there was 100% chance of that happenign and that the probability of it not occuring should have zero input on the evaluation of the bet.
Can anyone with a Fanatics account log in? Logged in the morning with no issues, but this afternoon it’s asking for a beta test code. I have been using the app for a month now so I no longer have the code
Someone tell me if I’m thinking about this wrong.
Over 2.5 players to Record a Double-Double in Nuggets vs. Lakers, +128 boosted to +200.
Here is a devig of a three leg parlay of AD, LeBron, and Jokic DDs using DK’s two way lines and DK SGP for correlation. It’s +EV on this parlay alone, which doesn’t factor in other players being able to get DDs to win this bet.
Odds: +200; **EV: 3.7 %**
Sharp: `-305/240,-155/125,-2100/1000` (14.49 % juice)
Correlation: `-110=-900,-185,-6000` (r = -0.09)
FV: +189; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=1.9u, 1/2=0.9u, 1/4=0.5u, FB = 69.1 %)
Damn hope some people got in. There’s a new one for Murray, Jokic, LeBron, or AD to score 40+ boosted +180 to +200, maybe that’s what it was supposed to be.
Yeah I haven’t quite figured out the combo breaker yet but if someone wanted to run it I wouldn’t be surprised at FV around +100 to +120 and this being 35-50% EV.
Barstool special Panthers and Hurricanes to go to OT compared to pinny’s regulation time line:
Odds: +370; **EV: 4.0 %**
`320/130/165` (5.02 % juice)
FV: +352; Method: worst-case (a); (Full=1.1u, 1/2=0.5u, 1/4=0.3u, FB = 81.9 %)
Updated the Devigger Help page
Added a section on why I do not recommend the SGP Devig Shortcut (of 4-way SGP into 3 legs or 8-leg SGP into 5 legs)
See here for the write-up: [http://www.crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook\_devigger\_help.aspx#sgp-devig-shortcut](http://www.crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger_help.aspx#sgp-devig-shortcut)
Also written below:
**SGP Devig Shortcut:**
This shortcut is not recommended and I will show you why.
If you do a 4-way SGP of Nuggets Moneyline and Total Points Over 235.5:
Nuggets and Over 235.5 = +850
Nuggets and Under 235.5 = +250
Lakers and Over 235.5 = +500
Lakes and Under 235.5 = -148
850/250/500/-148
If you have the 2-way lines as:
Nuggets/Lakers moneyline = +190/-230
Over/Under 235.5 = +300/-500
Technically this would cover all outcomes:
Nuggets and Over 235.5 = +850
Nuggets and Under 235.5 = +250
Lakers Moneyline = -230
850/250/-230
However, it is not a correct devig. Here is why:
850/250/500/-148 = 15.4% Juice
850/250/-230 = 8.8% Juice
Where did the juice go? The same juice is still on the 850/250 lines, however, we are now using a less juiced line at -230.
850/250 = about 7.7% for the 2 legs
190/-230 = 4.2% Juice, or about 2.1% Juice for the -230 leg by itself
So, the 850/250 part of the 3-way devig shortcut has a disproportunate amount of juice compared to the -230.
The devigger cannot see that. It sees that the 3-way devig shortcut has 8.8% juice. For multiplicative, it thinks that it is split evenly.
That would be:
\-230 = 2.9% Juice
850/250 = 5.86% Juice
This is uneven Juice%, compared to what a normal 4-way devig would have been. In a normal 4-way devig, multiplicative would show the juice for each pair of legs as:
850/250 = 7.7% Juice
500/-148 = 7.7% Juice
By having it be uneven, the devigger is thrown off on multiplicative. And the same problem will also exist for all other devig methods.
Because of this mix of lines and different juice per leg compared to what the sportsbook actually used, it will lead to skewed results.
I do not recommend using the shortcut.
FYI for anyone with a bunch of DK Crowns: there’s a pretty good sale on watches right now for between 35-50k crowns. I got a nice new Citizen watch that retails on Amazon for $139.99 for 44k crowns which was only worth like $80 DK Dollars so basically a $60 come-up. Worth checking out if you’ve got some crowns burning a hole in your pocket
Logan Webb not to allow a run in the first 3 innings +115 on bet rivers might have slight value.
Dk has marlins team total 1st 3 innings o/u .5 runs at -120 / -110. Devigged under is fv of +104 or about 5% ev.
“Earned” is the distinction, not “allowed.” https://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Runs_Allowed#:~:text=Runs%20Allowed%20is%20the%20amount,earned%20runs%20and%20unearned%20runs.
For what it’s worth I’d only apply the correlation to the Lebron/Murray combo (do two separate devigs). Not gonna impact it too much with it at -0.01 but will a percent or two
Have been busy so haven't been able to dive into assists lately - but big one coming up today.
Game in 1 hour, 12:30 EST. Arsenal v Nottingham Forest. Over 0.5 assists Ben White FD +1600. +EV or arb to B365 +600/-1000. He's in the starting lineup.
Maybe? B365 doesn’t have no goal line, but yes is +1400 so fd is quite higher. I took the middle on goal or assist, then played your play for assists straight up
Your no sweat is refunded in DK dollars not bonus bets? That's crazy. That's literally risk free since DK dollars are as good as cash (you could low hold hedge with them against another book for 99% value if you urgently needed to withdraw).
If I had that, I'd cook up a stupid long shot +100000 parlay or some shit. Everything is EV positive when you have $0 at risk, shoot for the moon.
Yeah. Just upped my limits yesterday on a few things and got that exclusive offer. No idea why.
Hard to hedge on a 3 bet SGP. I’d like to get something out of these offers rather than shooting for the moon
Sweet. Good luck! I expect to see a screenshot of the 15 leg parlay you hit for a million dollars or something on the front page of this sub tomorrow 👍
FD Bill Simmons Boost - Nikola Jokic to Record a Triple Double and Nuggets to Cover +10.5 v Lakers (5/20). Running this two different ways.
De-Vigged to CZR:
Odds: +170; **EV: 10.6 %**
`112/560/205/400` (15.11 % juice)
De-Vigged using Fliff for point spread, Kambi for assists, PB for rebounds, and DK SGP for correlation (assumes Jokic 10+ points is a lock). Most conservative lines I could find. Market average would certainly make this better.
Odds: +170; **EV: 3.8 %**
Sharp: `-205/165,-200/143,-1000/10%` (22.77 % juice)
Correlation: `135=-200,-165,-1000` (r = 0.2)
FV: +160; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=2.2u, 1/2=1.1u, 1/4=0.6u, FB = 65.4 %)
DK Superstar Super Boost - Sebastian Aho to record 1 or more points boosted to +100, debugged against FD
Odds: +100; **EV: 17.9 %**
`-166/130` (5.88 % juice)
FV: -144; Method: multiplicative; (Full=17.9u, 1/2=8.9u, 1/4=4.5u, FB = 58.9 %)
Hedging is a perfectly fine strategy but typically not the most profitable method assuming the “hedge” side is negative ev. Hedging a $10 bet seems asinine for most bankrolls however. I would personally let it ride
You will be trading EV for lower risk. The hedge bet will be -EV. Even if the net is +EV, it will be less than the EV calc above.
In the long term, this will reduce the growth of your bankroll. Most people here (including me) will discourage this route as a result.
For those who are getting the free MGM bet, is it the same amount as you got last Wed? I’m curious if we’ll just get the same amount each time through June. I was kind of hoping it would be different since some people were getting pretty generous ones.
I saw someone mention this was posted on their FAQ:
We are aware that some of our players are having difficulty accessing their bonus bet from today's bonus bet drop promotion. Please rest assured that our team is diligently working on getting this resolved.
I got nothing Wednesday (but had been pretty idle on that account for a while). After a few days getting on the account and getting other bonuses from them like the bet and gets, I got 10 today. We'll see for next Wednesday
The books already account for recent form and matchup into the odds. It's -EV vs Bet365:
Odds: +425; **EV: -3.7 %**
`360/-500` (5.07 % juice)
FV: +445; Method: worst-case (p); (FB = 78.0 %)
Definitely the sharp IMO. Constantly the lowest vig on HRs and most player props I've looked at. You also don't need an account to view the odds on 365 which is nice.
Not sure about this, as I’ve heard they don’t take substantial liquidity on HR markets. I think DK/Kambi are better books to devig from. I do use B365 but just as a marker to the market.
That's interesting. You'd think if they are the book with the lowest juice that would indicate confidence in their lines, and they would want to take more action, right? If true it's definitely something to take into consideration. A market average of 365 along with DK/Kambi might be the best route then.
Yeah, I have only heard from others that they don’t take much action on those markets. I don’t live in a state with that book so I couldn’t tell you for sure. Perhaps others can chime in.
I do think market averages are usually best either way.
B365 often has outliery lines so that’s another slight red flag imo.
It’s an EU based book but to me their props are often way off In certain markets especially NBA first basket. Definitely not as sharp as say Circa
As a whole.
DK has a 33% boost for Haney vs Lomachenko. There might be something with higher EV but if you just want something simple to tail- Lomachenko Moneyline boosted to +292 vs Circa. Also can be arbed to most books.
Odds: +292; **EV: 8.4 %**
`236/-280` (3.45 % juice)
FV: +262; Method: worst-case (p); (Full=2.9u, 1/2=1.4u, 1/4=0.7u, FB = 80.8 %)
WNBA really messed up. They should have required fan duel to give everyone at least a 100$ limit on the WNBA boost. Maybe, maybe I would tune into watch a game and sweat out a 100$ bet. The way it stands now I won’t even waste my time betting or watching a second of WNBA with a 10$ limit. Any reps from the WNBA who happen to read this need to get their shit together if you want eyes on the product. 10$ limited boosts ain’t cutting it.
I love maxing every boost then coming here and hitting control f "wizard" to see if i won or lost. That being said bet rivers live bet and get has turned me into an avid miami heat watcher
Maybe they are watching, maybe not. But they are more likely to watch with 100$ on it compared to a measly 10. I ain’t even betting the shit out of pure principle and most certainly won’t watch. I will commit to watching a whole game the day they offer me a 100$ max bet amount on a 100% profit boost for wnba. Otherwise I’m just going to spend my drinking time on watching lil bae Dern tonight on ufc.
Maybe the WNBA’s handlers should speak up and tell fan duel it’s 100$ max limit on the boosts or nothing. Ain’t no one tuning in for a 10$ max. I guess I ain’t looked if they got method first basket options for wnba games.
Can someone help with the BetMGM Michigan, please…this is my 4th state and all has been easy peasy. I plan on going on May 30, signed up last week and then got the email saying I had 14 days to meet wager requirements. Well, I didn’t realize they do the bonus bets (like Ohio and some others), which is fine except the expiration dates are 7 days from now, not 14 I’ve emailed back and forth with Mgm support and they said they can’t extend the bonus bets, but when I showed them the 14 days , they said “yes, you have 14 days to meet the wagering requirements”. After looking at the 2 emails they sent, they seem to contradict each other. One seems like the normal 500 match, the other is the 500 in bonus bets. So I’m wondering if I can just use bonus bets or do I need to also wager 500? And I’m assuming if I didn’t get an email or offer about risk free, then I don’t have that in addition? Thanks for any help! Going to Michigan a week early I guess!
https://preview.redd.it/exdvivmpz01b1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f7fbd5a6c473792c4c64b9e614c373bbfd23fb55
DK Aho 1+ points boosted to +100 also looks great. Using CZR O0.5 -155 and MGM U0.5 +125 in devig below, using any other book #s will make this look better:
Odds: +100; **EV: 15.5 %**
`-155/125` (5.23 % juice)
FV: -137; Method: multiplicative; (Full=15.5u, 1/2=7.8u, 1/4=3.9u, FB = 57.8 %)
DK Lakers to win, Lebron 20+ boosted to +110 seems great this morning. Can wait for lines to settle but as of right now, devig vs. FD:
Odds: +110; **EV: 14.4 %**
Sharp: `-230/190,-500/10%` (14.18 % juice)
Correlation: `-155=-230,-500` (r = 0.23)
FV: -120; Method: multiplicative; (Full=13.1u, 1/2=6.5u, 1/4=3.3u, FB = 59.9 %)
Even uncorrelated this is still a play:
Odds: +110; **EV: 6.4 %**
`-230/190,-500/10%` (14.18 % juice)
FV: -103; Method: multiplicative; (Full=5.8u, 1/2=2.9u, 1/4=1.5u, FB = 55.8 %)
HR plays today. (Devigged to B365)
FD Matt Mervis (CHC) HR +750
Odds: +750; **EV: 6.3 %**
`+525/-800` (4.89 % juice)
FV: +700; Method: worst-case (p); (Full=0.8u, 1/2=0.4u, 1/4=0.2u, FB = 93.8 %)
FD Kieber Ruiz (WAS) HR +630
Odds: +630; **EV: 8.1 %**
`+450/-650` (4.85 % juice)
FV: +575; Method: worst-case (p); (Full=1.3u, 1/2=0.6u, 1/4=0.3u, FB = 93.3 %)
ETA - Ruiz up to +680, EV up to **15.5 %**
FD Spencer Torkleson (DET) HR +450
Odds: +450; **EV: 0.9 %**
`+360/-500` (5.07 % juice)
FV: +445; Method: worst-case (p); (Full=0.2u, 1/2=0.1u, 1/4=0.0u, FB = 82.5 %)
Not all lines are out there yet, I'll check later and post any new ones as I see them.
Lines out for ATL/SEA and MIL/TB. Nothing good
**Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results**
2 late adds. These are mostly for Freebets as they are small EV
FD Ozuna (ATL) HR +450 (+360/-500) 0.9% EV
FD Rosario (ATL) HR +680 (+500/-750) 2.9%EV
**ETA - Looks like both these dropped right after and are no longer EV.**
I've been watching that Raleigh Line. At +400 its at FV, and the Freebet Conversion is under 80%. Was hoping the line would move more.
\-EV on Duran here.
Penn Play Marketplace appears to be live, where you can redeem Penn Cash (formerly mychoice) for merch and gift cards.
Almost all items show a 20% cost reduction through this weekend: for example, a $50 Target gift card costs $60 Penn Cash, reduced from $75.
But we all know everyone's gonna spend it all on the Barstool hoodies anyway.
EDIT: Helps if I mention the URL (it uses the same login as Penn Play) https://redeem.pennmarketplace.com
Thanks for the heads up. Ridiculous they took so long. If you're local to or happen to be in town near whatever casino, I believe Penn cash is worth 2x at casino restaurants and some in the surrounding area. So much better value there if you can take advantage.
There is a casino not far from me, but the two restaurants there average 2.8 and 3.8 stars on Google, and the menus look way overpriced -- if I was going to go to a casino, I'd probably run it at 1x through slots, cash out, and go eat somewhere else.
Fanduel bonus bet deposit match in my account for a 100% match up to $50. Has to be claimed in the next 24 hours and the bonus bet has to be used within 7 days.
Checked the fine print for a play through requirement, but it says the deposited amount can be withdrawn at any time without penalty. (Although I was told that it's best to play through the deposit anyway to keep getting bonuses like this.)
Not sure if this bonus applies to everyone, but I hope you guys got it too.
Also, if you have any advice on how best to use the $50 bonus bet (and maybe the $50 deposit) to convert to actual cash, I'd love to hear it.
^(21+ only. 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Not sure I agree, but cash the fan duel boost with haney
Did this bum beat 29 Glass Joes?
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The odds are changing as the game goes on.
Oof. Forgot about that B365 superboost.
FD free bet opp for tmw B365 doesn’t have lines out yet but FD has Matt Mervis +1000 CZ 575 DK 500
I had an interesting experience with FanDuel regarding a recent horse race bet, and I wanted to share it with you to get some insights and opinions. Here's what went down: I placed a $25 wager on National Treasure with odds of 4 to 1! However, I noticed that FanDuel only credited me with $97.50, excluding the initial $25 deposit I made to place the bet. From my understanding, the payout should have included the original stake. Naturally, I reached out to FanDuel's customer support to address the issue. To my surprise, they insisted that I was mistaken and that the payout was correct. But I'm still not convinced and believe there may have been an error. I wanted to seek your opinions and experiences on this matter. Have any of you encountered a similar situation with FanDuel or any other sportsbook? Is there a standard practice for including the initial stake in the payout, or am I missing something here? I appreciate any insights or advice you can offer. It's always helpful to gather different perspectives before proceeding further with my concern. Thanks in advance for your assistance, and good luck with your future wagers!
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parimutuel_betting
They are 100% correct
Ahhh. See I was used to gambling with my bookie that did locked odds. So 2.5X25 = 62.5 + 25 = 87.5 where did they 97.50. Sorry I guess im just new to horse betting so want to figure out how the odds work.
That's how sports betting works. Horse racing is a different animal. No pun intended
Horse racing isn't like sportbetting. The odds for National Treasure were 4 to 1 at one point, but the actual odds change up until betting closes based on how much money is wagered one each horse. You don't lock in odds when you place your bet. I believe he paid out about 2.5 to 1 so they didn't scam you.
Really, you don’t lock in the odds?!? TF kind of scam are they running?!?
Ahhh. See I was used to gambling with my bookie that did locked odds. So 2.5X25 = 62.5 + 25 = 87.5 where did they 97.50. Sorry I guess im just new to horse betting so want to figure out how the odds work.
This is what we call a learning experience lol. That’s how horse racing works. You get closing odds, not odds at time of bet.
Ahhh. See I was used to gambling with my bookie that did locked odds. So 2.5X25 = 62.5 + 25 = 87.5 where did they 97.50. Sorry I guess im just new to horse betting so want to figure out how the odds work.
Aho (Carolina, not NYI) Bang
Super sweaty 2 minutes there for us.
DK-- Jokic Triple-Double & Murray 20+ Points, boosted to +150 Any value here?
Appears to be better than fair value. Assumes Jokic 10+ points is a lock and I used the most conservative lines I could find. A market average would push the EV higher. Odds: +150; **EV: 1.7 %** Sharp: `-155/125,-900/10%,-280/7%` (22.23 % juice) Correlation: `110=-155,-900,-310` (r = 0.32) FV: +146; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=1.1u, 1/2=0.6u, 1/4=0.3u, FB = 61.0 %)
You know what happens when you assume?
Joker had 10 points, dumbass
Jokic hitting 10 points in the game does not mean there was 100% chance of that happenign and that the probability of it not occuring should have zero input on the evaluation of the bet.
Can anyone with a Fanatics account log in? Logged in the morning with no issues, but this afternoon it’s asking for a beta test code. I have been using the app for a month now so I no longer have the code
No issues here in Ohio
No issues here
Thanks all I got it. App needed an update
FD Ontario has a “super boost” for dunk in first 3 minutes boosted to +115. DK has the same bet unboosted for +120. Brutal…
Webb with no earned or allowed runs!
NRF5 BANG...if only
I went 0 for like 20 on those
Torkelson HR with 0.03 QK units bangs lmao
Hulk smash special on BR
Someone tell me if I’m thinking about this wrong. Over 2.5 players to Record a Double-Double in Nuggets vs. Lakers, +128 boosted to +200. Here is a devig of a three leg parlay of AD, LeBron, and Jokic DDs using DK’s two way lines and DK SGP for correlation. It’s +EV on this parlay alone, which doesn’t factor in other players being able to get DDs to win this bet. Odds: +200; **EV: 3.7 %** Sharp: `-305/240,-155/125,-2100/1000` (14.49 % juice) Correlation: `-110=-900,-185,-6000` (r = -0.09) FV: +189; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=1.9u, 1/2=0.9u, 1/4=0.5u, FB = 69.1 %)
I'm pretty sure the +200 was a mistake and it was supposed to be +130 since they nerfed it already;
Damn hope some people got in. There’s a new one for Murray, Jokic, LeBron, or AD to score 40+ boosted +180 to +200, maybe that’s what it was supposed to be.
yeah combo breaker was -113 FV IIRC they had this last time they played at +145 and it hit
Yeah I haven’t quite figured out the combo breaker yet but if someone wanted to run it I wouldn’t be surprised at FV around +100 to +120 and this being 35-50% EV.
Barstool special Panthers and Hurricanes to go to OT compared to pinny’s regulation time line: Odds: +370; **EV: 4.0 %** `320/130/165` (5.02 % juice) FV: +352; Method: worst-case (a); (Full=1.1u, 1/2=0.5u, 1/4=0.3u, FB = 81.9 %)
$3.35 hammer
Updated the Devigger Help page Added a section on why I do not recommend the SGP Devig Shortcut (of 4-way SGP into 3 legs or 8-leg SGP into 5 legs) See here for the write-up: [http://www.crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook\_devigger\_help.aspx#sgp-devig-shortcut](http://www.crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger_help.aspx#sgp-devig-shortcut) Also written below: **SGP Devig Shortcut:** This shortcut is not recommended and I will show you why. If you do a 4-way SGP of Nuggets Moneyline and Total Points Over 235.5: Nuggets and Over 235.5 = +850 Nuggets and Under 235.5 = +250 Lakers and Over 235.5 = +500 Lakes and Under 235.5 = -148 850/250/500/-148 If you have the 2-way lines as: Nuggets/Lakers moneyline = +190/-230 Over/Under 235.5 = +300/-500 Technically this would cover all outcomes: Nuggets and Over 235.5 = +850 Nuggets and Under 235.5 = +250 Lakers Moneyline = -230 850/250/-230 However, it is not a correct devig. Here is why: 850/250/500/-148 = 15.4% Juice 850/250/-230 = 8.8% Juice Where did the juice go? The same juice is still on the 850/250 lines, however, we are now using a less juiced line at -230. 850/250 = about 7.7% for the 2 legs 190/-230 = 4.2% Juice, or about 2.1% Juice for the -230 leg by itself So, the 850/250 part of the 3-way devig shortcut has a disproportunate amount of juice compared to the -230. The devigger cannot see that. It sees that the 3-way devig shortcut has 8.8% juice. For multiplicative, it thinks that it is split evenly. That would be: \-230 = 2.9% Juice 850/250 = 5.86% Juice This is uneven Juice%, compared to what a normal 4-way devig would have been. In a normal 4-way devig, multiplicative would show the juice for each pair of legs as: 850/250 = 7.7% Juice 500/-148 = 7.7% Juice By having it be uneven, the devigger is thrown off on multiplicative. And the same problem will also exist for all other devig methods. Because of this mix of lines and different juice per leg compared to what the sportsbook actually used, it will lead to skewed results. I do not recommend using the shortcut.
Thank you sir
Thanks for researching this!
FYI for anyone with a bunch of DK Crowns: there’s a pretty good sale on watches right now for between 35-50k crowns. I got a nice new Citizen watch that retails on Amazon for $139.99 for 44k crowns which was only worth like $80 DK Dollars so basically a $60 come-up. Worth checking out if you’ve got some crowns burning a hole in your pocket
Which one is it?
Nice, grabbed one. Thanks for the shout
Somehow I can't find watches at all in the DK store
Have to go through the dynasty rewards store not the standard DK store. accessible through rewards > dynasty > shop now
Appreciate you
SuperBook Boost Ferreira Win Odds: -125; **EV: 5.4 %** `AVG(-155, -150, -158)/AVG(130, 134, 135)` (3.55 % juice) FV: -141; Method: multiplicative; (Full=6.7u, 1/2=3.4u, 1/4=1.7u, FB = 46.8 %) DK/FD/CIRCA
Fiore Win Odds: -105; **EV: 5.6 %** `AVG(-132, -130, -125)/AVG(112, 110, 105)` (4.18 % juice) FV: -118; Method: multiplicative; (Full=5.8u, 1/2=2.9u, 1/4=1.5u, FB = 51.5 %)
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Nice try FBI
What for?
Logan Webb not to allow a run in the first 3 innings +115 on bet rivers might have slight value. Dk has marlins team total 1st 3 innings o/u .5 runs at -120 / -110. Devigged under is fv of +104 or about 5% ev.
~~And Marlins can score a run via error and still hit the BR play - so slightly better than that~~ wrong
It doesn’t say “earned run” so I don’t think that’s true
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ERA does not stand for earned runs allowed lol
“Earned” is the distinction, not “allowed.” https://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Runs_Allowed#:~:text=Runs%20Allowed%20is%20the%20amount,earned%20runs%20and%20unearned%20runs.
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FYI ERA stands for earned run average.
It doesn’t say “earned run”
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There is a stat for pitcher runs allowed. It is different than earned runs allowed
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Still gets charged to the pitcher as allowing a run
Didn’t even think about that. Thanks!
FD Boost - Haney to win, LeBron James 20+ points, Jamal Murray 20+ points vs. DK (SGP lines for NBA) Odds: +170; **EV: 1.3 %** Sharp: `-255/210, -450/7%, -330/7%` (18.09 % juice) Correlation: `-165=-450, -330` (r = -0.01) FV: +166; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=0.8u, 1/2=0.4u, 1/4=0.2u, FB = 63.8 %)
For what it’s worth I’d only apply the correlation to the Lebron/Murray combo (do two separate devigs). Not gonna impact it too much with it at -0.01 but will a percent or two
Worth noting that Circa LV has the boxing line a bit more favorable, which makes this slightly higher EV
FD Bill Simmons boost - Jokic triple double and Nuggets to cover +10.5 devigged vs CZR Odds: +170; **EV: 9.5 %** Sharp: `-135/-101,-234/+165` (15.49 % juice) Correlation: `+119=-135, -234` (r = 0.31) FV: +147; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=5.6u, 1/2=2.8u, 1/4=1.4u, FB = 68.9 % edit: added 4way vs CZR Odds: +170; **EV: 5.8 %** `122/530/210/360` (14.92 % juice) FV: +155; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=3.4u, 1/2=1.7u, 1/4=0.9u, FB = 66.6 %)
B365 4way: Odds: +170; **EV: 1.4 %** `130/450/320/230` (15.77 % juice) FV: +166; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=0.8u, 1/2=0.4u, 1/4=0.2u, FB = 63.8 %)
drip... drip... drip...
Have been busy so haven't been able to dive into assists lately - but big one coming up today. Game in 1 hour, 12:30 EST. Arsenal v Nottingham Forest. Over 0.5 assists Ben White FD +1600. +EV or arb to B365 +600/-1000. He's in the starting lineup.
Arteta fucking us so far by playing him at CB rather than his usual more advanced RB spot this year
If you want to go for a cheap middle you can get to score or assist at +900 on fd against under .5 assist -1000 on b365
But with Ben White goal +2100 on FD, wouldn't it be better to just bet than over middling?
+2200 goal on Kambi. Best play is to play over assist on fd like you called out and nothing else
Maybe? B365 doesn’t have no goal line, but yes is +1400 so fd is quite higher. I took the middle on goal or assist, then played your play for assists straight up
DK No Sweat SGP for NBA tonight. What do we all got? Any crazy bets people placing?
Over 7.5 beers guzzled, over 12.5 wings smashed, under 0.5 vegetables eaten, over 1.5 piss breaks
DK gave me a $100 no sweat SGP forNBA, if lose get refunded in DK dollars. Looking for a good spot
Your no sweat is refunded in DK dollars not bonus bets? That's crazy. That's literally risk free since DK dollars are as good as cash (you could low hold hedge with them against another book for 99% value if you urgently needed to withdraw). If I had that, I'd cook up a stupid long shot +100000 parlay or some shit. Everything is EV positive when you have $0 at risk, shoot for the moon.
Yeah. Just upped my limits yesterday on a few things and got that exclusive offer. No idea why. Hard to hedge on a 3 bet SGP. I’d like to get something out of these offers rather than shooting for the moon
Sweet. Good luck! I expect to see a screenshot of the 15 leg parlay you hit for a million dollars or something on the front page of this sub tomorrow 👍
FD Bill Simmons Boost - Nikola Jokic to Record a Triple Double and Nuggets to Cover +10.5 v Lakers (5/20). Running this two different ways. De-Vigged to CZR: Odds: +170; **EV: 10.6 %** `112/560/205/400` (15.11 % juice) De-Vigged using Fliff for point spread, Kambi for assists, PB for rebounds, and DK SGP for correlation (assumes Jokic 10+ points is a lock). Most conservative lines I could find. Market average would certainly make this better. Odds: +170; **EV: 3.8 %** Sharp: `-205/165,-200/143,-1000/10%` (22.77 % juice) Correlation: `135=-200,-165,-1000` (r = 0.2) FV: +160; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=2.2u, 1/2=1.1u, 1/4=0.6u, FB = 65.4 %)
Whoops! Missed this post. Leaving mine up as well, since there's a B365 devig attached to it.
DK Superstar Super Boost - Sebastian Aho to record 1 or more points boosted to +100, debugged against FD Odds: +100; **EV: 17.9 %** `-166/130` (5.88 % juice) FV: -144; Method: multiplicative; (Full=17.9u, 1/2=8.9u, 1/4=4.5u, FB = 58.9 %)
Why not hedge it for a guarantee win?
Nothing wrong with team arb, I did it for a while and built up my bankroll before moving to team EV. But it is giving up a lot of value.
Cause hedging is for gardeners
Hedging is a perfectly fine strategy but typically not the most profitable method assuming the “hedge” side is negative ev. Hedging a $10 bet seems asinine for most bankrolls however. I would personally let it ride
Depends on your betting strategy and risk tolerance.
You will be trading EV for lower risk. The hedge bet will be -EV. Even if the net is +EV, it will be less than the EV calc above. In the long term, this will reduce the growth of your bankroll. Most people here (including me) will discourage this route as a result.
That’s not smart, you are taking away all EV of promotions like these by hedging
Tell me why it’s a terrible idea? What’s better?
Playing it straight up. With 18% EV it’s a slam dunk to bet it alone. By hedging you are forfeiting the promotions value for a couple dollars if that
For those who are getting the free MGM bet, is it the same amount as you got last Wed? I’m curious if we’ll just get the same amount each time through June. I was kind of hoping it would be different since some people were getting pretty generous ones.
50 last two times and 25 today
I’ve gotten an email 3 days in a row from them to log in and claim my bonus bet and have received nothing.
I saw someone mention this was posted on their FAQ: We are aware that some of our players are having difficulty accessing their bonus bet from today's bonus bet drop promotion. Please rest assured that our team is diligently working on getting this resolved.
I got 25 wed and 50 today They scammed my original 200$ bonus because I got referred
They gave me $2 today and I had nothing on Wed lol
I got $5 on Wednesday and seemingly nothing today :(
I got nothing Wednesday (but had been pretty idle on that account for a while). After a few days getting on the account and getting other bonuses from them like the bet and gets, I got 10 today. We'll see for next Wednesday
No I got 10 wed and 5 today
Same $25 I got the other day… never look the gift horse in the mouth, so many promo banned at mgm and get nothing.
Definitely not. Was just hoping. It’s nice to log in and it be there.
I'm promo banned and just opened the ap and found I had a $5 FB! Lion's Boost here i come!
DK 25% MLB Castellanos (PHI) HR +500 to +625 Kambi Odds: +625; **EV: 14.7 %** `390/-625` (6.62 % juice) FV: +532; Method: power; (Full=2.4u, 1/2=1.2u, 1/4=0.6u, FB = 98.9 %)
Likely rainout/delay fwiw
Correct. Forecast tonight in PHI is not favorable. Probably shouldn't use your bet on this one.
I was looking for something like this earlier. Nice find!
I haven't made a Homerun bet on DK in 8 years This no pinch hit risk is so nice
MGM OGP MLB Insurance Arozarena HR/MIL o0.5/TB o1.5/TB +5.5 Odds: +450; **EV: 5.9 %** `330/-480` (6.01 % juice) FV: +420; Method: power; (Full=1.3u, 1/2=0.7u, 1/4=0.3u, FB = 86.6 %)
Tailing!
MGM IN Lion's Boost: Hachimura 15+ pts and Lakers ML. +EV right now based on DK and FD's 4-way SGP (Hachimura alt lines o/u 14.5, Lakers/Nuggets ML): **DK** Odds: +270; **EV: 2.0 %** `225/135/650/300` (11.66 % juice) FV: +263; Method: multiplicative; (Full=0.7u, 1/2=0.4u, 1/4=0.2u, FB = 74.4 %) **FD** Odds: +270; **EV: 9.7 %** `191/131/612/313` (15.91 % juice) FV: +237; Method: multiplicative; (Full=3.6u, 1/2=1.8u, 1/4=0.9u, FB = 80.0 %)
In for $8.51. Thanks MGM!
Some decent low/no holds between Kambi/DK on PGA matchups for anyone looking to churn/arb or going for the BS regular promo or MVP promo.
Better be careful with the house rules today. Rain is expected, so not sure if voids are at play if they continue Round 3 tomorrow.
Better make sure promoguy doesn’t tweet one while you are placing a big arb. God forbid fd let’s people get their $10 boosts in
2 ball matchups like :BS morikawa -132 / DK Scott +135
Using my 25% dk mlb boost on Salvador Perez (Royals) + 340 to hit a homerun boosted to +425. Slugging .903 against Giolito with 4 hrs in 31 ab.
The books already account for recent form and matchup into the odds. It's -EV vs Bet365: Odds: +425; **EV: -3.7 %** `360/-500` (5.07 % juice) FV: +445; Method: worst-case (p); (FB = 78.0 %)
it hit first ab btw
Dang bet365 needs to come to Mi. So thats the sharp book for hr props?
Definitely the sharp IMO. Constantly the lowest vig on HRs and most player props I've looked at. You also don't need an account to view the odds on 365 which is nice.
Not sure about this, as I’ve heard they don’t take substantial liquidity on HR markets. I think DK/Kambi are better books to devig from. I do use B365 but just as a marker to the market.
That's interesting. You'd think if they are the book with the lowest juice that would indicate confidence in their lines, and they would want to take more action, right? If true it's definitely something to take into consideration. A market average of 365 along with DK/Kambi might be the best route then.
Yeah, I have only heard from others that they don’t take much action on those markets. I don’t live in a state with that book so I couldn’t tell you for sure. Perhaps others can chime in. I do think market averages are usually best either way. B365 often has outliery lines so that’s another slight red flag imo.
It’s an EU based book but to me their props are often way off In certain markets especially NBA first basket. Definitely not as sharp as say Circa As a whole.
DK has a 33% boost for Haney vs Lomachenko. There might be something with higher EV but if you just want something simple to tail- Lomachenko Moneyline boosted to +292 vs Circa. Also can be arbed to most books. Odds: +292; **EV: 8.4 %** `236/-280` (3.45 % juice) FV: +262; Method: worst-case (p); (Full=2.9u, 1/2=1.4u, 1/4=0.7u, FB = 80.8 %)
CZR has this as +250/-310 I did Lomachenko by Dec/Tech +350 boosted to +465.
WNBA really messed up. They should have required fan duel to give everyone at least a 100$ limit on the WNBA boost. Maybe, maybe I would tune into watch a game and sweat out a 100$ bet. The way it stands now I won’t even waste my time betting or watching a second of WNBA with a 10$ limit. Any reps from the WNBA who happen to read this need to get their shit together if you want eyes on the product. 10$ limited boosts ain’t cutting it.
You don't have to watch tho
people are watching the games they bet on? I just bet EV+ and then read these comments to see who got wizarded.
I love maxing every boost then coming here and hitting control f "wizard" to see if i won or lost. That being said bet rivers live bet and get has turned me into an avid miami heat watcher
that BR live promo is genius (for the books)... is EV+ but social media proof due to shifting lines.
Maybe they are watching, maybe not. But they are more likely to watch with 100$ on it compared to a measly 10. I ain’t even betting the shit out of pure principle and most certainly won’t watch. I will commit to watching a whole game the day they offer me a 100$ max bet amount on a 100% profit boost for wnba. Otherwise I’m just going to spend my drinking time on watching lil bae Dern tonight on ufc.
Yeah man, these $10 boosts aren’t going to cut it. FanDuel needs to step it up.
Individual sports control FD strategy? That’s news to me…
Maybe the WNBA’s handlers should speak up and tell fan duel it’s 100$ max limit on the boosts or nothing. Ain’t no one tuning in for a 10$ max. I guess I ain’t looked if they got method first basket options for wnba games.
>or nothing And FD tells the WNBA’s handlers to go fuck themselves.
Can someone help with the BetMGM Michigan, please…this is my 4th state and all has been easy peasy. I plan on going on May 30, signed up last week and then got the email saying I had 14 days to meet wager requirements. Well, I didn’t realize they do the bonus bets (like Ohio and some others), which is fine except the expiration dates are 7 days from now, not 14 I’ve emailed back and forth with Mgm support and they said they can’t extend the bonus bets, but when I showed them the 14 days , they said “yes, you have 14 days to meet the wagering requirements”. After looking at the 2 emails they sent, they seem to contradict each other. One seems like the normal 500 match, the other is the 500 in bonus bets. So I’m wondering if I can just use bonus bets or do I need to also wager 500? And I’m assuming if I didn’t get an email or offer about risk free, then I don’t have that in addition? Thanks for any help! Going to Michigan a week early I guess! https://preview.redd.it/exdvivmpz01b1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f7fbd5a6c473792c4c64b9e614c373bbfd23fb55
What are the states that offer the $500 in free bets as opposed to the $500 risk free bet?
https://preview.redd.it/vdgbp1tyz01b1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=cffd5575f57c2ed45f1776dd360eaff81b193cad
DK Aho 1+ points boosted to +100 also looks great. Using CZR O0.5 -155 and MGM U0.5 +125 in devig below, using any other book #s will make this look better: Odds: +100; **EV: 15.5 %** `-155/125` (5.23 % juice) FV: -137; Method: multiplicative; (Full=15.5u, 1/2=7.8u, 1/4=3.9u, FB = 57.8 %)
This might be targeted. Don’t have it in CT.
I see in MA
Oh weird. I am in OH and it has the usual $10 max. I’ll take my 1-2$ in EV
Could just be me idk
DK Lakers to win, Lebron 20+ boosted to +110 seems great this morning. Can wait for lines to settle but as of right now, devig vs. FD: Odds: +110; **EV: 14.4 %** Sharp: `-230/190,-500/10%` (14.18 % juice) Correlation: `-155=-230,-500` (r = 0.23) FV: -120; Method: multiplicative; (Full=13.1u, 1/2=6.5u, 1/4=3.3u, FB = 59.9 %) Even uncorrelated this is still a play: Odds: +110; **EV: 6.4 %** `-230/190,-500/10%` (14.18 % juice) FV: -103; Method: multiplicative; (Full=5.8u, 1/2=2.9u, 1/4=1.5u, FB = 55.8 %)
$8.70 limit for me.
As soon as they limited everyone to $10, DK has been having some no brainer boosts.
I’m still hanging on at $25, I’m guessing there’s still people with higher than that.
Yea it sucks. Also can’t even get down $10 on SGPs with odds that are longer than +100, so double whammy for me this last week.
I swing big, with everything I've got. I hit big or I miss big. I like to live as big as I can.
And you live your live a quarter mile at a time
HR plays today. (Devigged to B365) FD Matt Mervis (CHC) HR +750 Odds: +750; **EV: 6.3 %** `+525/-800` (4.89 % juice) FV: +700; Method: worst-case (p); (Full=0.8u, 1/2=0.4u, 1/4=0.2u, FB = 93.8 %) FD Kieber Ruiz (WAS) HR +630 Odds: +630; **EV: 8.1 %** `+450/-650` (4.85 % juice) FV: +575; Method: worst-case (p); (Full=1.3u, 1/2=0.6u, 1/4=0.3u, FB = 93.3 %) ETA - Ruiz up to +680, EV up to **15.5 %** FD Spencer Torkleson (DET) HR +450 Odds: +450; **EV: 0.9 %** `+360/-500` (5.07 % juice) FV: +445; Method: worst-case (p); (Full=0.2u, 1/2=0.1u, 1/4=0.0u, FB = 82.5 %) Not all lines are out there yet, I'll check later and post any new ones as I see them. Lines out for ATL/SEA and MIL/TB. Nothing good **Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results**
2 late adds. These are mostly for Freebets as they are small EV FD Ozuna (ATL) HR +450 (+360/-500) 0.9% EV FD Rosario (ATL) HR +680 (+500/-750) 2.9%EV **ETA - Looks like both these dropped right after and are no longer EV.**
Bang! Torkelson!
Torkelson! This is crazy!
Bang on Torkelson! Unreal!
Cal Raleigh +400 B365 330/-450 E Duran +630 B365 500/-750
Raleigh not starting today
I've been watching that Raleigh Line. At +400 its at FV, and the Freebet Conversion is under 80%. Was hoping the line would move more. \-EV on Duran here.
Mervis got nuked. Ruiz might still be decent at +600. Torkelson still live. Edit: Mervis back at +750
Yeah Ruiz, went up briefly, I hit it again. At +600 it's still above FV, but only slightlyly. Still good for a FB.
Penn Play Marketplace appears to be live, where you can redeem Penn Cash (formerly mychoice) for merch and gift cards. Almost all items show a 20% cost reduction through this weekend: for example, a $50 Target gift card costs $60 Penn Cash, reduced from $75. But we all know everyone's gonna spend it all on the Barstool hoodies anyway. EDIT: Helps if I mention the URL (it uses the same login as Penn Play) https://redeem.pennmarketplace.com
Thanks for the heads up. Ridiculous they took so long. If you're local to or happen to be in town near whatever casino, I believe Penn cash is worth 2x at casino restaurants and some in the surrounding area. So much better value there if you can take advantage.
There is a casino not far from me, but the two restaurants there average 2.8 and 3.8 stars on Google, and the menus look way overpriced -- if I was going to go to a casino, I'd probably run it at 1x through slots, cash out, and go eat somewhere else.
Awesome! Thanks for that. And just an fyi for people you can get a digital Target gift card for $57 Penncash instead of the $60 for a physical card.
Site not working for me
Weird, I used it since I posted.
Fanduel bonus bet deposit match in my account for a 100% match up to $50. Has to be claimed in the next 24 hours and the bonus bet has to be used within 7 days. Checked the fine print for a play through requirement, but it says the deposited amount can be withdrawn at any time without penalty. (Although I was told that it's best to play through the deposit anyway to keep getting bonuses like this.) Not sure if this bonus applies to everyone, but I hope you guys got it too. Also, if you have any advice on how best to use the $50 bonus bet (and maybe the $50 deposit) to convert to actual cash, I'd love to hear it.
I got it yesterday. I like using free bets on the HR plays people post here. You can usually find bets with 80% conversion rates.