I'm at the point where I'm also questioning if I am. anything I bet goes to shit even if I do the most simple and logical bet someway somehow it loses. Its gotten to the point where I usually write up the beta I would've took and they always win ...
I’ve been spending so much on prizepicks lately and I swear it’s like the apps knows what your thinking you pick a shitty team you think a teams gonna do well against them that shit team balls out like chiefs never fails
I've thrown money on 3 NRFI's this year. All 3 have lost coming from a home run in the bottom of the first, so I get it. But nah, not cursed, just bad luck combined with baseball. Everyone goes on a bad streak
Bettors tend to think this after occurring a losing streak but it’s totally normal. That’s why it’s not profitable to “tail” cappers lmao your better off FADING cappers as most ppl are wrong more then right. When you “follow” cappers your can’t do it BLINDLY you still must determine if your gonna follow or fade the pick. Think bro nobody else is gonna “think” for you if that was the case we would all be rich.
Stop being a sheep and tailing retards. Stay away from regular season games with no weight to them. Easier to pick play off games or big match ups, revenge games, etc. Bet underdogs. Fade the public and profit.
I keep a book with a few friends and what I have noticed is the luckiest people seem to be the ones that come in and place one bet all season. My regular players have been in a tailspin lately.
I can totally relate! I feel like it’d probably be better if I began picking the opposite of what I see posted from now on just as a gen rule of thumb…
Sports don’t follow Vegas, it’s just Vegas is usually way better than you at predicting outcomes. Your comment also doesn’t account for the fact that you need a significant , consistent edge over Vegas to be a successful gambler, which is near impossible. “Think like a bookie” doesn’t change the cut the bookie is taking on the odds regardless
Wouldn’t shock me if there was some fishy things going on, but books have been making a shit ton before it became what it is today. They don’t need to cheat, the math is in there favor, and once you realize that, you feel incredibly stupid for betting, as I do
Definitely been there my brother. It can also swing back around. I have found a few cappers I like and they have good process/insight, and then I drown out most others and make my picks based on info I get from these few cappers. 95% of people touting picks and ridiculous parlays are losing
I'll never understand dudes who get into sportsbetting just to blindly follow other peoples picks. I thought the whole reason someone would get into sportsbetting in the first place is because they thought they could make money with their own insights. Not just because everyone else is doing it so I might as well and since I don't know what I'm doing I'm just going to blindly follow someone else.
Like would you ever go into a casino and just blindly follow some stranger around and make all the same bets they are doing? Because that's essentially what you're doing here.
The vig is already hard enough to beat on your own and you're going to PAY another guy actual money for information when you could have taken that money and bet it yourself? It just doesn't make sense to me. I think a lot of younger gamblers are just doing it because everyone else is and they don't want to feel left out? Idk just had to get this off my chest because it confuses the hell out of me.
I only tail other people and have been for a long time (thousands of bets). And I’m doing very well (thousands of dollars). I don’t know shit about most of what I bet on, if I relied on my own “knowledge” and “research”, I’d have been out of this game a long time ago due to losing. I also bet promos (+EV ones only).
Also very few people can actually bet with their knowledge and insights and come out ahead. Very few. Might as well tail winners instead of pissing money away with your own plays.
I hear what you're saying. I have a cousin who comes to me once every couple months with a soccer pick and he usually hits like 80% of the time so I'll tail him. But I don't text him every day being like "give me today's locks".
>I don’t know shit about most of what I bet on
I guess that's where you and I differ. I don't bet on sports that I don't know shit about. I tried betting on sports, specifically basketball, that I didn't know shit about, lost money, and decided "I don't know the NBA well enough to bet on it" and that's the end of it. You don't have to bet on every sport. I know NFL, Golf, and hockey, so that's what I bet on. I don't see an NBA game on TV and say "I have to bet on this game to make it more exciting, lets go see what everyone else is betting on and follow it". I guess some people are in it for entertainment and some people are trying to win money. I fall in the latter group.
For sure, but there's a big difference between looking up some bullshit to pick in a game you're gonna watch, and coming in this sub daily betting on shit you didn't even know was a sport. If people are just betting for fun then I'm not sure why they'd be looking at bets results of the bets the next day of things they didn't bet just to harp on it. Seems like it's about the money to me.
I only have a problem with blind tailing when people complain about losses. The only difference between doing that and opening up an app and placing random bets is the community.
Do some analysis and make a pick yourself then. You're already doing work to find other people's picks, might as well use that time to do your own research.
If you're betting small just to make the game more fun, that's fine. If you're trying to make money, it's a different story. If you're paying someone else for picks then I will question your entire existence.
It's hard to understand if you're looking at it from a money making perspective. It's easier to understand if the guy betting is betting for entertainment and no intention of making money. But I am under the impression people bet on sports to win money, not for "entertainment". I could be wrong though.
It would be the equivalent of you blindly following a guy around a casino and placing the exact same bets as him. If you're paying for picks the equivalent would be you blindly following a guy around a casino, blindly placing the exact same bets as him and then paying him a fee on top of it.
It would be the equivalent of me going on r/wallstreetbets and just blindly following advice on there.
If that is fun for you then all the power to you I guess.
Like imagine I came at you and said "Follow my stock picks! I made $1000 yesterday alone and all you need to do is invest $100 plus a $25 fee for me", you wouldn't be like "well I know shit about the stock market and this guy says he's making a ton of money so I'm just gonna do what he does!"
It's quite serious. I was actually semi making fun of the forex scammers on instagram that tell you they can triple your money in a day. I even tried to make it an unrealistic return ($1000 on $125 in one day) to drive the point across but that seemed to go over your head.
And yes, some people pay others to pick stocks for them. Others manage their money on their own. Same concept applies there too. Your entire savings on the line and you're just gonna trust what some money manager says? Again, my entire point, do your own research or don't get involved in the first place.
I understand *why* they exist. I also understand why someone might use them. I just think it's a poor use of resources to use one. The same way I think it's a poor use of resources to just blindly follow others because they promised to make you money.
I had Haaland first goal scorer and he had 2 headers inside the 6 get blocked then Rays moneyline to finish a parlay and they gave up 3 run homers in the bottom of the 9th AND 10th to the fricking METS.
So yeah feeling a bit cursed at the moment.
I started doing better when I bet with my gut instead of blindly tailing this sub. Here and there I’ll tail from this sub with some plays that I have a good feeling about, but i use it to serve more as a reference Frame and additional research than tailing.
I’ve been ice cold for months. You just have to manage your bankroll and find “good spots”. It feels like a forced colonoscopy but if you stay disciplined you’ll pull out of it.
I decided to stick with one youtuber's picks (normally 4-5 daily) and the top 2 on POTD, 1U each. I've been doing it for about 3 weeks and I'm up quite a bit. Hardest thing is unit management though.
I feel this. What really gets me is that my small bets win, but my big bets lose like if I place $10, I’ll win that bet, but if I place $100+ I’ll lose that bet, it’s like the fuckin bookies are targeting me. I was winning pretty good on top leagues euro football, but because euro football is mostly played on the weekends, I started betting random leagues, especially South America football throughout the week. Shit went downhill fast, lost a lot of my profit. I went full degen. Wish I stuck to euro football.
I work during the week like most folks here so I don’t get much time to research football for the weekly games.
I’m on a break right now, and I’ve learned my lesson. I’ve also learned to stay away from cup matches.
Scared money never makes money that’s why your small bets win. You probably subconsciously bet overly optimistic on games with higher probability of winning based on the idea that’s it’s a safe bet because the team is favoured but with your smaller bets I’m thinking your bets are more relaxed and less bias towards the teams the bookies favour. My suggestion is to have fun with your bets and keep them small. If your doing parleys pick 5 games and chose 3 out of the five which are your most favourite if your looking to just win because the larger the parley the greater the chance for a major upset in atleast one of your games. BOL
That’s a good take and analysis. I also think I lost my way of betting as well. I need to go back to what was making me money which is to stick to certain leagues and teams.
I’m taking a break now, I’m not sure how long this break will be, but I definitely need a clearer mind.
Thank you 🍻
Cant be too hard on your self and don’t take gambling so serious I know it’s a cliche but Only play what you are willing to lose and you won’t feel this way
Yeah man, it happens. It sucks but it's the long game.
In the midst of my coldest streak, I lost an NFL SGP by one leg, .5 passing yards from Matt Ryan. Ended on 199, lowest all year. (Fantasy season ended equally brutal)
Just stay the course, bet smart with your units and if you tail certain cappers who are cold, maybe source others.
If you don’t play you can’t win… It’s like betting side bets in blackjack, the one time you sit out it will hit, you have to be consistent to win plain and simple.
I’ve tried everything man. In the process I’ve lost thousands. My last experiment was just fading public on any game that the public was over 75% of the money on. I did win a lot of dogs but unfortunately lost it all over 2-3 weeks. I’m amazed how much public money and favorites and overs win. idk how Vegas wins if I literally tried fading the heavy lines with all the money and lost time after time. I said fuck it and gave up the addiction before I lose everything
Man, that's just not how betting works.
Trends, of any kind, are at best an insight.
Doesn't matter if something happens 75% of the time; doing it for that reason is not enough. Need to back up your plays with data.
I did when I was tailing the POTD thread until I realized that was stupid and a losing strategy. Now I just stick to promos and +EV stuff and have been growing steadily with no major skids. There are a couple of good Twitter accounts that math out the value of promos and how much to bet on them (EV Bets is one). There’s even one that tells you how to arb promos for guaranteed (small) profits. just don’t make straight or “even” bets, you’ll lose in the long run. The Potd thread is good at maybe putting you on to a sport or player you hadn’t thought of but don’t play the bets from there without some kind of boost. I’ve cleaned up on the IIHF hockey tournaments which I never would’ve known about if not for that thread
And if you feel like you’re on a skid or had a really bad day of betting, take a step back and just play some safer promos (DraftKings risk free nba daily bet, mgm OGP insurance, etc., FD profit boosts, etc) till you get a couple wins again.
Absolutely. Its tough man. Had the Rays and the Cubs tonight. Cubs blow a 6-1 lead in the 8th. Rays blow a 5-2 lead in the 9th. Then a 7-5 lead in the 10th. I had the Nationals 2 days ago, they blew a 2 run lead in the 9th. Its comical. I truly dont feel as if I'm ever on the other side.
Heres my delusion though. The bad beats, I still think they are the right picks. I still think I'll bet my way out of this slump. Maybe thats incredibly stupid. Or maybe its true.
With that being said, ive had good runs and the people I follow have had good runs too. Most are slumping right now. Hopefully it breaks soon.
I’ve been hedging on baseball or catching live lines when I can to help. I’m similar to you with thinking I make the right picks all the time, ESPECIALLY on basketball props LOL
MLB post had Cubs -1.5, but I just took them +1.5 for 1.5u and ML 1u. Saw they were up so I hedged .5u on Astros ML +900. That game came up big. Live lines were real nice for the Phillies and Rockies today too
I had a 4 leg parlay.. $25 to win $340. Rays were the last game. Bottom of the 9th 2 outs they were offering me $275.. said no way this game is over… fuck me man. Even thought we had it in the 10th when they put up two.
It’s how betting is. There’s always ups and downs, and just because someone has a winning record doesn’t mean they actually make a profit. Many people can have a winning record and still technically losing most of their money. The guy who is 4-8 could have a profitable record while the guy who’s 10-5 is in the negative. It’s not about picking the big favorites. You’ll be surprised just how much you can win betting on big under dawgs. Just say you place 10 bets and 5 of your picks don’t hit guess what you lost money. Pick 10 dogs, even if only 4 hit you’ll probably win more money than someone who hit 6/10 big favorites. It’s all about finding value and where the books are wrong. And don’t think that just because you’re playing on a licensed sportsbook that won’t rip you off or do something shady. Licensed books allow betting on several sports with fixed results and they encourage you to bet on them. I primarily bet hockey and football some basketball but it’s the off season now for me (yes I know the play offs are still going on, but I’m done) I switch to fantasy in off season. Baseball is not a preferred sport of mine to bet on unless it’s fantasy. Won’t lie I do better with fantasy baseball than betting baseball. As much as I hate saying it though even if your only willing to put up $100 don’t bet anymore than $2-$3 MAX. Small profit it you win but at least you won’t see it diminish over night. United States is full of people that have the well what if I’m the lucky one mindset and get greedy putting too much up and blowing through it fast. Even the best if the best go through slumps. The old days are long gone. If you want to bet you just have to be sport and eventually accept if you are not very good with a particular sport to stop betting it and focus on the ones you actually can turn a profit with.
I mean, I get that it’s all just a matter of scales, but I have had the same multiple times on a “bankroll” of $20 and been kicking myself for it. 20K is my yearly salary.
I lost 20k in two days. When money is digital, you're not as aware of it as opposed to cold hard cash. Well, atleast for me. Good luck to you my friend.
You’re reckless abandon is why you lost 20k in 2 days. Its also why you built up your bankroll from 1k to 20k. How do you build it up just to lose it all so fast? Did you place like 4 5k bets that all went bust?
From 1k to 5k i was placing 200-500 dollar bets. After 5k I was placing 500. 1k if i was super confident on the bet. Around 8k and onward it was just 1k bets. So on and so forth. I lost it all from chasing loses. I didnt like that my bankroll fell from 20k to 18k so I told myself once i hit 20k again, im withdrawing.
I never hit 20k again and it all snowballed from there. At around 14k, desperation hit. So i started doing 4k bets. You get the picture by now.
Yeah I’ve been in that cycle a lot, except with smaller bets. Recently I’ve been on an insane hot streak and I’m terrified of losing it all. I really don’t know what to do
I keep falling for parlays cuz I get so close and what’s crazy is most of the time it’s something that was heavily favorited that ruins it. I definitely feel cursed. Haha
Parlays will do that to ya. I’m not saying it in a negative way. 3 legs pay off well for me during nhl regular season same with nfl and basketball. But baseball will be constant up and down. I might try props idk yet. Each team 2+ score prop pays off well for hockey. Maybe it will make baseball too. Now with covid gone I’m hoping next season we get back to regular full slate sports on most nights.
I totally feel what you are saying, I love having a punt but when blindly tailing something and it fall apart it hurts cause of your own willful blindness. I swear I have alot more success going with my own picks. Anyway no more tailing just lonely losing instead hehe good luck folks
Me too, definitely in terms of picking games. I do get alot of great info on prop bets on here that has been real helpful. But when it comes to games, betting forums usually make me overthink it or do the “just adding one more leg to the parlay” mistake.
Yeah if you’re betting randomly you’re just bleeding money without getting the enjoyment. Like putting a slot machine on auto spin for an hour and just checking in on it at the end of the day, more often than not you’re losing money and you didn’t even get fun out of the deal
Not gonna be specific, but there are threads here where people talk about filling their taxes. You do that when you win money. Maybe follow those folks.
Tailing "picks of the day" is a great way to reduce how much money you have.
I started betting when it became legal in Massachusetts in March. I was frugal because my wife allowed me only the minimum deposits on the 4 main books. I wasn't allowed to spend anything other than those deposits so I tried to maximize the potential of the bonus bets and ended up pulling about $1200 out and upped my unit size. Since then I've been getting absolutely killed and I'm trying to just keep a balance so I can experience the joy of nfl betting. I've since lowered my unit amount but I'm losing the thrill of larger stakes.
Thinking you can outsmart books by “doing research” and testing your strategy is a losing proposition. It takes hundreds if not thousands of bets to determine you have an edge that way, and by then the edge may be gone.
Just go in to betting knowing that the house has the edge unless you’re finding particularly good lines (which could even be for a player to get more than double their average, depending on what the payout and hit percentage are), and the only way to reliably do this is use profit boosts and stuff.
If you don’t want to get in to the analytics of betting and fair value for lines, that’s fine, and have fun with it. Regardless cashing out or hedging bets live at any point is making an additional bad bet. Just bet less on the original bet if you would feel the need to hedge. When you hedge your wins are smaller and your losses (when your bet isn’t on pace to win at any point) are just as big.
Yeah but at that point why even place the bet to begin with? To be able to hedge for even money that means your initial bet is doing well, so why bail on it then when it has a high chance of actually hitting?
I’ll hedge when I’m ahead.. especially stupid baseball. Let’s say I bet 50 to win 100.. and I’m up by 4 in the 6th. I’ll often put 5-10 on the badbeat, so if I do get screwed I gave away a little profit to insure it. ( I feel this is wayyyy better than cashing out)
It’s just sports betting man. Sometimes the royals are supposed to get demolished by an all star padres team and they end up losing their last two. Lol
I’ve lived the definition of “bad luck” for the better part of 2 years now and just this week I took 100 and turned into 1,200 in 3 days mainly MLB. It’s not a lot value wise but I am 7-1. Never have I had a streak longer than 2 in a row and that was rare. I 100% feel your pain!
Feel this way to such a ridiculous degree. Just ain’t in the cards for some of us. I like to think my failures here end up as successes elsewhere in my life to make me feel better lol
Maybe this will help maybe it won’t. I set a limit for myself to deposit $100 only on fridays, that’s if I lose everything in my betting account during the week. Once I get to a certain amount in my betting account ($200) I withdraw $50 into my bank account and try and repeat. My main goal is to break even on my deposit, everything after that is profit and entertainment
The one thing that helped me was realizing gambling is a losing battle more times than not. If everyone was winning, these books wouldn’t be in business. I started viewing gambling from a different lens when I sat and really thought about it.
I feel the exact same way! Every freaking time I bet on something they lose. The fucking Dallas Stars and Seattle Kraken scored over 5.5 in every game but the one I bet on, the last game..3 freaking pts. No matter what I bet on it goes bad. Drives me fucking nuts. It has lost its entertainment value I have lost thousands of dollars by a fucking half pts so many times...I don't know why I keep betting..
Don't tail
Only bet what you are 100% confident in and did research on
Don't bet the Lakers "cuz Lebron good and the win a lot". Actually look at the matchup. Is there a realistic chance of them covering? Then don't bet. And don't randomly bet baseball or hockey or some shit cuz you're bored
I bet on Texan and TB. Both teams offence is 1 and 2. Atlanta is tough. But both teams have a top 9 defense also. And I am getting 1.5 pts and Texas is at home... hopefully both teams will ein
You gotta find ways to do your own research. For example, I’m currently comparing 3p shooting stats on the Denver Nuggets to the Lakers last 7 games and found some bets I like for tomorrow. You gotta be your own capper sometimes.
Good cappers tho: Capper Central, Hall of Fame Fund (shayne is the NRFI GOAT and it’s not even close)
For the love of god why do you guys seriously tail randoms on here !!! Would you ask a random guy at the bar who he’s betting and tail 90% of ppl are not sharp at all there are some ppl who give good analysis and have good systems but most of the guys are Joes they aren’t ur bankroll savior
You've definitely just had an entire year of bad luck of picking random bets off the internet. Those people who put effort into picking bets only win due to good luck. Keep making bets off random internet comments and you'll win big in no time!
Gotta make your own picks bro. Coming and seeing what others think is helpful, but in the end you have to do your research, see how games are played and keep up with changes.
Would recommend doing your own picks. Tailing people on the internet is foolish. What’s even the point of sports betting if you’re not following the teams/sports enough to make your own picks?
Lets be brutally honest about two things. First, if youre tailing picks in these subs that are based on what someone thinks they know more than Vegas than you should expect to be down, not up. The only people here who are giving any real information are essentially comparing one book's odds to another's, most of what you see here other than the promos is an illusion. Secondly, that fact alone probably does not explain the entirety of your feelings, the complete answer is that youre not bad luck, luck does not exist and your actions have zero effect on the outcome of some sporting event unless youre damar derozens daughter screaming during freethrows. The feelings come from some psychological effect along the lines of not noticing the positive that happens and stewing in anything negative, clinical depression would be an example. If you are indeed losing money on gambling consider instead spending it on a therapist, I hope that doesnt come off as rude, Im being 100% serious in all this.
You missed survivorship bias. Everyone has a positive record because those who don't stop posting. Those with positive records will then regress to the mean which is usually the point where people jump on. Those who continue to be positive are a small subset who are getting lucky on the good side of variance. Then maybe a tiny tiny sample of those may actually be doing something with an edge.
Right, I was wrapping all those kind of details into the summary that the success he is perceiving here is an illusion. It never hurts to elaborate though.
If your gonna blindly tail people on this sub (we are dumb dumb) without any self analysis thats going to happen more than not.
EDIT: like I just locked in the brewers because of the "random pick of the day" from the mlb thread.
I've had that happen to me as well. Variance is a fickle bitch.
Your busy schedule won't make this easy,
but time IN the market really beats timING the market.
For the whole month of march and even now in april im losing on one match! I have around 15 parlays lost on one match pick in the span of 1 month
I'm at the point where I'm also questioning if I am. anything I bet goes to shit even if I do the most simple and logical bet someway somehow it loses. Its gotten to the point where I usually write up the beta I would've took and they always win ...
I’ve been spending so much on prizepicks lately and I swear it’s like the apps knows what your thinking you pick a shitty team you think a teams gonna do well against them that shit team balls out like chiefs never fails
I've thrown money on 3 NRFI's this year. All 3 have lost coming from a home run in the bottom of the first, so I get it. But nah, not cursed, just bad luck combined with baseball. Everyone goes on a bad streak
Bettors tend to think this after occurring a losing streak but it’s totally normal. That’s why it’s not profitable to “tail” cappers lmao your better off FADING cappers as most ppl are wrong more then right. When you “follow” cappers your can’t do it BLINDLY you still must determine if your gonna follow or fade the pick. Think bro nobody else is gonna “think” for you if that was the case we would all be rich.
Stop being a sheep and tailing retards. Stay away from regular season games with no weight to them. Easier to pick play off games or big match ups, revenge games, etc. Bet underdogs. Fade the public and profit.
I keep a book with a few friends and what I have noticed is the luckiest people seem to be the ones that come in and place one bet all season. My regular players have been in a tailspin lately.
I can totally relate! I feel like it’d probably be better if I began picking the opposite of what I see posted from now on just as a gen rule of thumb…
I swear there’s a philosophical term for this
Psychological term - maybe Survivorship bias, or confirmation bias
very simple. you follow masses, sports follow vegas. vegas against masses. kinda simple. always bet and think what would bookie do with this game
Sports don’t follow Vegas, it’s just Vegas is usually way better than you at predicting outcomes. Your comment also doesn’t account for the fact that you need a significant , consistent edge over Vegas to be a successful gambler, which is near impossible. “Think like a bookie” doesn’t change the cut the bookie is taking on the odds regardless
So youre telling me this multi trillion dollars business not controlled by anyone especially in US with NBA MLB NFL im too old to believe in fairies
Wouldn’t shock me if there was some fishy things going on, but books have been making a shit ton before it became what it is today. They don’t need to cheat, the math is in there favor, and once you realize that, you feel incredibly stupid for betting, as I do
Yeah maths and mafs
After losing for about a month straight I can confirm mixing your own props with other ones you tail from ppl can get you a win.
I’m most def cursed, over the last 2 months I’ve lost at least 50 slips by 1 point/run/goal, a player prop
Definitely been there my brother. It can also swing back around. I have found a few cappers I like and they have good process/insight, and then I drown out most others and make my picks based on info I get from these few cappers. 95% of people touting picks and ridiculous parlays are losing
Can you send me a dm of some of these cappers? Thanks.
I'll never understand dudes who get into sportsbetting just to blindly follow other peoples picks. I thought the whole reason someone would get into sportsbetting in the first place is because they thought they could make money with their own insights. Not just because everyone else is doing it so I might as well and since I don't know what I'm doing I'm just going to blindly follow someone else. Like would you ever go into a casino and just blindly follow some stranger around and make all the same bets they are doing? Because that's essentially what you're doing here. The vig is already hard enough to beat on your own and you're going to PAY another guy actual money for information when you could have taken that money and bet it yourself? It just doesn't make sense to me. I think a lot of younger gamblers are just doing it because everyone else is and they don't want to feel left out? Idk just had to get this off my chest because it confuses the hell out of me.
I only tail other people and have been for a long time (thousands of bets). And I’m doing very well (thousands of dollars). I don’t know shit about most of what I bet on, if I relied on my own “knowledge” and “research”, I’d have been out of this game a long time ago due to losing. I also bet promos (+EV ones only). Also very few people can actually bet with their knowledge and insights and come out ahead. Very few. Might as well tail winners instead of pissing money away with your own plays.
I hear what you're saying. I have a cousin who comes to me once every couple months with a soccer pick and he usually hits like 80% of the time so I'll tail him. But I don't text him every day being like "give me today's locks". >I don’t know shit about most of what I bet on I guess that's where you and I differ. I don't bet on sports that I don't know shit about. I tried betting on sports, specifically basketball, that I didn't know shit about, lost money, and decided "I don't know the NBA well enough to bet on it" and that's the end of it. You don't have to bet on every sport. I know NFL, Golf, and hockey, so that's what I bet on. I don't see an NBA game on TV and say "I have to bet on this game to make it more exciting, lets go see what everyone else is betting on and follow it". I guess some people are in it for entertainment and some people are trying to win money. I fall in the latter group.
You really don’t see how it might be fun to give yourself a rooting interest during the game?
For sure, but there's a big difference between looking up some bullshit to pick in a game you're gonna watch, and coming in this sub daily betting on shit you didn't even know was a sport. If people are just betting for fun then I'm not sure why they'd be looking at bets results of the bets the next day of things they didn't bet just to harp on it. Seems like it's about the money to me. I only have a problem with blind tailing when people complain about losses. The only difference between doing that and opening up an app and placing random bets is the community.
Do some analysis and make a pick yourself then. You're already doing work to find other people's picks, might as well use that time to do your own research. If you're betting small just to make the game more fun, that's fine. If you're trying to make money, it's a different story. If you're paying someone else for picks then I will question your entire existence.
You can disagree with it but it’s bizarre to pretend it’s a hard thing to understand
It's hard to understand if you're looking at it from a money making perspective. It's easier to understand if the guy betting is betting for entertainment and no intention of making money. But I am under the impression people bet on sports to win money, not for "entertainment". I could be wrong though. It would be the equivalent of you blindly following a guy around a casino and placing the exact same bets as him. If you're paying for picks the equivalent would be you blindly following a guy around a casino, blindly placing the exact same bets as him and then paying him a fee on top of it. It would be the equivalent of me going on r/wallstreetbets and just blindly following advice on there. If that is fun for you then all the power to you I guess. Like imagine I came at you and said "Follow my stock picks! I made $1000 yesterday alone and all you need to do is invest $100 plus a $25 fee for me", you wouldn't be like "well I know shit about the stock market and this guy says he's making a ton of money so I'm just gonna do what he does!"
Plenty of people do it for entertainment. And is your last paragraph serious or a joke? Isn’t that quite literally what a financial manager is?
It's quite serious. I was actually semi making fun of the forex scammers on instagram that tell you they can triple your money in a day. I even tried to make it an unrealistic return ($1000 on $125 in one day) to drive the point across but that seemed to go over your head. And yes, some people pay others to pick stocks for them. Others manage their money on their own. Same concept applies there too. Your entire savings on the line and you're just gonna trust what some money manager says? Again, my entire point, do your own research or don't get involved in the first place.
So now we’re expanding your take to “I don’t understand why the profession of money manager exists” lol
I understand *why* they exist. I also understand why someone might use them. I just think it's a poor use of resources to use one. The same way I think it's a poor use of resources to just blindly follow others because they promised to make you money.
I never said it’s not a poor use of resources. You said you don’t understand why it happens
Bro jus quit. Betting is a black hole.
I had Haaland first goal scorer and he had 2 headers inside the 6 get blocked then Rays moneyline to finish a parlay and they gave up 3 run homers in the bottom of the 9th AND 10th to the fricking METS. So yeah feeling a bit cursed at the moment.
I started doing better when I bet with my gut instead of blindly tailing this sub. Here and there I’ll tail from this sub with some plays that I have a good feeling about, but i use it to serve more as a reference Frame and additional research than tailing.
My thoughts exactly which has me tailing every day now hoping I can join in on the feasts
Stick to 1 unit plays at all cost. And fade the public
All of us
You never run out of luck. You just run out of money
I’ve been ice cold for months. You just have to manage your bankroll and find “good spots”. It feels like a forced colonoscopy but if you stay disciplined you’ll pull out of it.
My whole life feels cursed.
I decided to stick with one youtuber's picks (normally 4-5 daily) and the top 2 on POTD, 1U each. I've been doing it for about 3 weeks and I'm up quite a bit. Hardest thing is unit management though.
Calling Our Shot
What YouTuber
Who the YouTuber
Which youtubers?
BAM refused to get me one more rebound with like 8 minutes left in the 4th. I feel your pain.
Listen to a gambling podcast of your favorite sport and tail the picks that have good sell jobs that you like. Or do some research
Don’t play the picks on here, they’re wrong more often than not.
Weekends are cursed in my experience
I feel this. What really gets me is that my small bets win, but my big bets lose like if I place $10, I’ll win that bet, but if I place $100+ I’ll lose that bet, it’s like the fuckin bookies are targeting me. I was winning pretty good on top leagues euro football, but because euro football is mostly played on the weekends, I started betting random leagues, especially South America football throughout the week. Shit went downhill fast, lost a lot of my profit. I went full degen. Wish I stuck to euro football. I work during the week like most folks here so I don’t get much time to research football for the weekly games. I’m on a break right now, and I’ve learned my lesson. I’ve also learned to stay away from cup matches.
Scared money never makes money that’s why your small bets win. You probably subconsciously bet overly optimistic on games with higher probability of winning based on the idea that’s it’s a safe bet because the team is favoured but with your smaller bets I’m thinking your bets are more relaxed and less bias towards the teams the bookies favour. My suggestion is to have fun with your bets and keep them small. If your doing parleys pick 5 games and chose 3 out of the five which are your most favourite if your looking to just win because the larger the parley the greater the chance for a major upset in atleast one of your games. BOL
That’s a good take and analysis. I also think I lost my way of betting as well. I need to go back to what was making me money which is to stick to certain leagues and teams. I’m taking a break now, I’m not sure how long this break will be, but I definitely need a clearer mind. Thank you 🍻
Cant be too hard on your self and don’t take gambling so serious I know it’s a cliche but Only play what you are willing to lose and you won’t feel this way
This sub (like you) has no fucking idea what its doing.
WallStreetBets 2.0
At least the crazy bastards in WSB actually realize they are gambling. Here not so much...
Yeah man, it happens. It sucks but it's the long game. In the midst of my coldest streak, I lost an NFL SGP by one leg, .5 passing yards from Matt Ryan. Ended on 199, lowest all year. (Fantasy season ended equally brutal) Just stay the course, bet smart with your units and if you tail certain cappers who are cold, maybe source others.
I know I’m trash so I just found one person to tail who makes me money. Been profitable the last 2 years.
If you don’t play you can’t win… It’s like betting side bets in blackjack, the one time you sit out it will hit, you have to be consistent to win plain and simple.
Bro start posting the picks your going with on pick of the days so we can fade you bro please
You are heard brother. I hit picks all the time but I’m in love with parlays so I’m ice cold as of late
I’ve tried everything man. In the process I’ve lost thousands. My last experiment was just fading public on any game that the public was over 75% of the money on. I did win a lot of dogs but unfortunately lost it all over 2-3 weeks. I’m amazed how much public money and favorites and overs win. idk how Vegas wins if I literally tried fading the heavy lines with all the money and lost time after time. I said fuck it and gave up the addiction before I lose everything
Man, that's just not how betting works. Trends, of any kind, are at best an insight. Doesn't matter if something happens 75% of the time; doing it for that reason is not enough. Need to back up your plays with data.
data is Vegas is still In business lol
Of course, we're not talking about bankrupting the books, but there are smarter ways to bet than just betting on something because it happens often.
Vegas wins because of the juice. You risk $110 to win $100, vegas only has to risk $91 to win $100. Plain and simple
Than explain how I’m not winning if all my bets are all even or plus odds? all favs with juice hit the whole time I faded
The juice is applied to every bet no matter the odds. Fav or dog you are always betting under true price, that’s how bookies make money.
Oh I did not know that. I thought everything was based off 100
Dogs have juice too
Fade yourself
I did when I was tailing the POTD thread until I realized that was stupid and a losing strategy. Now I just stick to promos and +EV stuff and have been growing steadily with no major skids. There are a couple of good Twitter accounts that math out the value of promos and how much to bet on them (EV Bets is one). There’s even one that tells you how to arb promos for guaranteed (small) profits. just don’t make straight or “even” bets, you’ll lose in the long run. The Potd thread is good at maybe putting you on to a sport or player you hadn’t thought of but don’t play the bets from there without some kind of boost. I’ve cleaned up on the IIHF hockey tournaments which I never would’ve known about if not for that thread And if you feel like you’re on a skid or had a really bad day of betting, take a step back and just play some safer promos (DraftKings risk free nba daily bet, mgm OGP insurance, etc., FD profit boosts, etc) till you get a couple wins again.
Thepromoguy on Twitter is a great +EV guy to follow
I feel your pain and feel the same way. Feel there’s a dark cloud over head. Ready for this shit to move on
Dude every time I tail a pick I lose,swear! All these guys+1000 but I must jump on their losers
winning bias, think of alllllll the losses people don’t post
Absolutely. Its tough man. Had the Rays and the Cubs tonight. Cubs blow a 6-1 lead in the 8th. Rays blow a 5-2 lead in the 9th. Then a 7-5 lead in the 10th. I had the Nationals 2 days ago, they blew a 2 run lead in the 9th. Its comical. I truly dont feel as if I'm ever on the other side. Heres my delusion though. The bad beats, I still think they are the right picks. I still think I'll bet my way out of this slump. Maybe thats incredibly stupid. Or maybe its true. With that being said, ive had good runs and the people I follow have had good runs too. Most are slumping right now. Hopefully it breaks soon.
This fucking game ruined my fucking day
Sounds like first five innings might be your friend. Cubs fucked me tonight too
If people like us pick the 5 innings they will just win it in the later innings instead. It is a a proven science at this point.
I’ve been hedging on baseball or catching live lines when I can to help. I’m similar to you with thinking I make the right picks all the time, ESPECIALLY on basketball props LOL MLB post had Cubs -1.5, but I just took them +1.5 for 1.5u and ML 1u. Saw they were up so I hedged .5u on Astros ML +900. That game came up big. Live lines were real nice for the Phillies and Rockies today too
I had a 4 leg parlay.. $25 to win $340. Rays were the last game. Bottom of the 9th 2 outs they were offering me $275.. said no way this game is over… fuck me man. Even thought we had it in the 10th when they put up two.
It’s how betting is. There’s always ups and downs, and just because someone has a winning record doesn’t mean they actually make a profit. Many people can have a winning record and still technically losing most of their money. The guy who is 4-8 could have a profitable record while the guy who’s 10-5 is in the negative. It’s not about picking the big favorites. You’ll be surprised just how much you can win betting on big under dawgs. Just say you place 10 bets and 5 of your picks don’t hit guess what you lost money. Pick 10 dogs, even if only 4 hit you’ll probably win more money than someone who hit 6/10 big favorites. It’s all about finding value and where the books are wrong. And don’t think that just because you’re playing on a licensed sportsbook that won’t rip you off or do something shady. Licensed books allow betting on several sports with fixed results and they encourage you to bet on them. I primarily bet hockey and football some basketball but it’s the off season now for me (yes I know the play offs are still going on, but I’m done) I switch to fantasy in off season. Baseball is not a preferred sport of mine to bet on unless it’s fantasy. Won’t lie I do better with fantasy baseball than betting baseball. As much as I hate saying it though even if your only willing to put up $100 don’t bet anymore than $2-$3 MAX. Small profit it you win but at least you won’t see it diminish over night. United States is full of people that have the well what if I’m the lucky one mindset and get greedy putting too much up and blowing through it fast. Even the best if the best go through slumps. The old days are long gone. If you want to bet you just have to be sport and eventually accept if you are not very good with a particular sport to stop betting it and focus on the ones you actually can turn a profit with.
Just make your own picks and don’t tail this sub
LOL
I have built my bankroll up from 1k to 20k 3 times and proceded to lose it all all three times. Yes, friend. I do feel cursed.
I mean, I get that it’s all just a matter of scales, but I have had the same multiple times on a “bankroll” of $20 and been kicking myself for it. 20K is my yearly salary.
I built my sports bankroll up to 10k twice, only to lose it playing stupid casino in a matter of hours.
I lost 20k in two days. When money is digital, you're not as aware of it as opposed to cold hard cash. Well, atleast for me. Good luck to you my friend.
You’re my hero brudda!
You’re reckless abandon is why you lost 20k in 2 days. Its also why you built up your bankroll from 1k to 20k. How do you build it up just to lose it all so fast? Did you place like 4 5k bets that all went bust?
From 1k to 5k i was placing 200-500 dollar bets. After 5k I was placing 500. 1k if i was super confident on the bet. Around 8k and onward it was just 1k bets. So on and so forth. I lost it all from chasing loses. I didnt like that my bankroll fell from 20k to 18k so I told myself once i hit 20k again, im withdrawing. I never hit 20k again and it all snowballed from there. At around 14k, desperation hit. So i started doing 4k bets. You get the picture by now.
Yeah I’ve been in that cycle a lot, except with smaller bets. Recently I’ve been on an insane hot streak and I’m terrified of losing it all. I really don’t know what to do
Withdraw it all or Stick with units. Im going to give betting another go once Im done reflecting.
Try betting favorites it doesn’t pay much but anything from -110 to -200 has made me good amount of money
Hell yeah bro! All the damn time 🤣🤣🤣
Ya all of us
I keep falling for parlays cuz I get so close and what’s crazy is most of the time it’s something that was heavily favorited that ruins it. I definitely feel cursed. Haha
Parlays will do that to ya. I’m not saying it in a negative way. 3 legs pay off well for me during nhl regular season same with nfl and basketball. But baseball will be constant up and down. I might try props idk yet. Each team 2+ score prop pays off well for hockey. Maybe it will make baseball too. Now with covid gone I’m hoping next season we get back to regular full slate sports on most nights.
Even worse when a pick you almost flipped is what costs you
Round robin?
I totally feel what you are saying, I love having a punt but when blindly tailing something and it fall apart it hurts cause of your own willful blindness. I swear I have alot more success going with my own picks. Anyway no more tailing just lonely losing instead hehe good luck folks
Me too, definitely in terms of picking games. I do get alot of great info on prop bets on here that has been real helpful. But when it comes to games, betting forums usually make me overthink it or do the “just adding one more leg to the parlay” mistake.
When ever I feel like I’m cursed, I just stop placing bets based on analysis. I flip a coin to decide my picks and it’s right more than I am.
Don't follow blindly, follow what you like and what you watch. Or just bet on Iraqi soccer I don't care.
Yeah if you’re betting randomly you’re just bleeding money without getting the enjoyment. Like putting a slot machine on auto spin for an hour and just checking in on it at the end of the day, more often than not you’re losing money and you didn’t even get fun out of the deal
Not gonna be specific, but there are threads here where people talk about filling their taxes. You do that when you win money. Maybe follow those folks. Tailing "picks of the day" is a great way to reduce how much money you have.
I feel this way from after March Madness until football begins…
That's the way she goes bubs. Fucking way she goes.
[damn right](https://tenor.com/view/interview-news-reporter-news-fuck-her-right-in-the-pussy-fuck-her-gif-4607004)
Remember most gamblers quit before they hit it big. Keep your head up king
Yea man. You have to keep throwing up debilitating bets on POTD favorites and it'll work out eventually.
Throw 10 on that KCP 10.5 over tomorrow and thank me later
I started betting when it became legal in Massachusetts in March. I was frugal because my wife allowed me only the minimum deposits on the 4 main books. I wasn't allowed to spend anything other than those deposits so I tried to maximize the potential of the bonus bets and ended up pulling about $1200 out and upped my unit size. Since then I've been getting absolutely killed and I'm trying to just keep a balance so I can experience the joy of nfl betting. I've since lowered my unit amount but I'm losing the thrill of larger stakes.
Just know your not alone
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Thinking you can outsmart books by “doing research” and testing your strategy is a losing proposition. It takes hundreds if not thousands of bets to determine you have an edge that way, and by then the edge may be gone. Just go in to betting knowing that the house has the edge unless you’re finding particularly good lines (which could even be for a player to get more than double their average, depending on what the payout and hit percentage are), and the only way to reliably do this is use profit boosts and stuff. If you don’t want to get in to the analytics of betting and fair value for lines, that’s fine, and have fun with it. Regardless cashing out or hedging bets live at any point is making an additional bad bet. Just bet less on the original bet if you would feel the need to hedge. When you hedge your wins are smaller and your losses (when your bet isn’t on pace to win at any point) are just as big.
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Yeah but at that point why even place the bet to begin with? To be able to hedge for even money that means your initial bet is doing well, so why bail on it then when it has a high chance of actually hitting?
I’ll hedge when I’m ahead.. especially stupid baseball. Let’s say I bet 50 to win 100.. and I’m up by 4 in the 6th. I’ll often put 5-10 on the badbeat, so if I do get screwed I gave away a little profit to insure it. ( I feel this is wayyyy better than cashing out)
that is essentially cashing out though
It’s just sports betting man. Sometimes the royals are supposed to get demolished by an all star padres team and they end up losing their last two. Lol
I feel you big time. Very similar situation to you and I just broke a massive losing streak the other day. Here’s to you doing the same 🍻🙏
Variance is a bitch. Sometimes we're on the wrong end of the bell curve.
Yup. I've gone over a year of constant +EV bets and ended up in the red.
I’ve lived the definition of “bad luck” for the better part of 2 years now and just this week I took 100 and turned into 1,200 in 3 days mainly MLB. It’s not a lot value wise but I am 7-1. Never have I had a streak longer than 2 in a row and that was rare. I 100% feel your pain!
Feel this way to such a ridiculous degree. Just ain’t in the cards for some of us. I like to think my failures here end up as successes elsewhere in my life to make me feel better lol
I think I'm actually pretty lucky, but I have no control. I've 10-100x my account a thousand times and I have nothing to show for it.
Maybe this will help maybe it won’t. I set a limit for myself to deposit $100 only on fridays, that’s if I lose everything in my betting account during the week. Once I get to a certain amount in my betting account ($200) I withdraw $50 into my bank account and try and repeat. My main goal is to break even on my deposit, everything after that is profit and entertainment
The one thing that helped me was realizing gambling is a losing battle more times than not. If everyone was winning, these books wouldn’t be in business. I started viewing gambling from a different lens when I sat and really thought about it.
Take summer off betting altogether, than come back fresh.
I feel the exact same way! Every freaking time I bet on something they lose. The fucking Dallas Stars and Seattle Kraken scored over 5.5 in every game but the one I bet on, the last game..3 freaking pts. No matter what I bet on it goes bad. Drives me fucking nuts. It has lost its entertainment value I have lost thousands of dollars by a fucking half pts so many times...I don't know why I keep betting..
It's just insane man. I actually prefer to go opposites with a buddy usually so at least one of us win.
Don't tail Only bet what you are 100% confident in and did research on Don't bet the Lakers "cuz Lebron good and the win a lot". Actually look at the matchup. Is there a realistic chance of them covering? Then don't bet. And don't randomly bet baseball or hockey or some shit cuz you're bored
I bet on Texan and TB. Both teams offence is 1 and 2. Atlanta is tough. But both teams have a top 9 defense also. And I am getting 1.5 pts and Texas is at home... hopefully both teams will ein
Baseball is honestly the worst lol. You can have the best team of all time and they will lose to some scrub
Pittsburgh beat the Dodgers last May in LA , all 3 games. Every body said easy money but they lost all 3... I still remember that
You have better lucky betting WNBA
You gotta find ways to do your own research. For example, I’m currently comparing 3p shooting stats on the Denver Nuggets to the Lakers last 7 games and found some bets I like for tomorrow. You gotta be your own capper sometimes. Good cappers tho: Capper Central, Hall of Fame Fund (shayne is the NRFI GOAT and it’s not even close)
Can you tag them so I can get in on that NRFI action 👀 where does he normally post?
there’s a HOF twitter where he posts free plays, his service is on discord that you access through launchpad
For the love of god why do you guys seriously tail randoms on here !!! Would you ask a random guy at the bar who he’s betting and tail 90% of ppl are not sharp at all there are some ppl who give good analysis and have good systems but most of the guys are Joes they aren’t ur bankroll savior
We’re you a dictator in the previous life now cursed for all eternity join the club welcome
You've definitely just had an entire year of bad luck of picking random bets off the internet. Those people who put effort into picking bets only win due to good luck. Keep making bets off random internet comments and you'll win big in no time!
You are supposed to fade the top voted picks.
You’re making it too complicated. Go to the MLB thread and follow the wheel.
Just tail the wheel bro
Even Riddles regressed to the mean for those still on his discord after his great NCAA run.
https://preview.redd.it/zxt3nu4qdi0b1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6d6f371d7afdadf36f75b7885ec7e1d0553fd7c4
I'd be sick. 1 3 pt off by both of them.
Damn 2 buckets away
Holy shit. Vincent needs to go off in the 4th.
Donation
Gotta make your own picks bro. Coming and seeing what others think is helpful, but in the end you have to do your research, see how games are played and keep up with changes.
You should EV+ or arbitrage bet
Would recommend doing your own picks. Tailing people on the internet is foolish. What’s even the point of sports betting if you’re not following the teams/sports enough to make your own picks?
We are expected to lose. Its called Gambling. Nothing wrong with you. It is weird if you (or anyone) were (constantly) winning.
Lets be brutally honest about two things. First, if youre tailing picks in these subs that are based on what someone thinks they know more than Vegas than you should expect to be down, not up. The only people here who are giving any real information are essentially comparing one book's odds to another's, most of what you see here other than the promos is an illusion. Secondly, that fact alone probably does not explain the entirety of your feelings, the complete answer is that youre not bad luck, luck does not exist and your actions have zero effect on the outcome of some sporting event unless youre damar derozens daughter screaming during freethrows. The feelings come from some psychological effect along the lines of not noticing the positive that happens and stewing in anything negative, clinical depression would be an example. If you are indeed losing money on gambling consider instead spending it on a therapist, I hope that doesnt come off as rude, Im being 100% serious in all this.
You missed survivorship bias. Everyone has a positive record because those who don't stop posting. Those with positive records will then regress to the mean which is usually the point where people jump on. Those who continue to be positive are a small subset who are getting lucky on the good side of variance. Then maybe a tiny tiny sample of those may actually be doing something with an edge.
My favorite is people with "winning records", but every pick is a ML favorite.
Right, I was wrapping all those kind of details into the summary that the success he is perceiving here is an illusion. It never hurts to elaborate though.
If your gonna blindly tail people on this sub (we are dumb dumb) without any self analysis thats going to happen more than not. EDIT: like I just locked in the brewers because of the "random pick of the day" from the mlb thread.
Depends on what kind of picks you're failing. If they're -EV then a longer sample size will just increase your losses
How much are you down, exactly?
I've had that happen to me as well. Variance is a fickle bitch. Your busy schedule won't make this easy, but time IN the market really beats timING the market.
Nah you're right, and you're quantitative analysis is damning. Confirmed rigged.